Fair Value Measurement

9 Months Ended

Sep. 30, 2024

Fair Value Disclosures [Abstract]

Fair Value Measurement

Fair Value Measurement

The Company carries a significant portion of its assets and liabilities at fair value. Fair value is defined as the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date (i.e., exit or transfer price). The price represents the price available in the principal market for the asset or liability. If there is no principal market, then the price is based on a hypothetical market that maximizes the value received for an asset or minimizes the amount paid for a liability (i.e., the most advantageous market).

Fair value is based on quoted market prices, where available. If listed prices or quotes are not available, fair value is based on either (i) internally developed models that primarily use, as inputs, market-based or independently sourced market parameters (including, but not limited to, yield curves, interest rates, and debt prices) or (ii) discounted cash flows using a third party’s proprietary pricing models. In addition to market information, when applicable, the models also incorporate transaction details, such as the instrument’s maturity and contractual features that reduce the Company’s credit exposure (e.g., collateral rights).

Valuation adjustments may be made to ensure that financial instruments are recorded at fair value. These adjustments include amounts to reflect counterparty credit quality, the Company’s creditworthiness and constraints on liquidity. As markets and products develop and the pricing transparency for certain products changes, the Company may refine its methodologies and assumptions. During nine months 2024, no changes were made to the Company’s valuation models that had (or are expected to have) a material impact on the Company’s condensed consolidated balance sheets or statements of operations and comprehensive income.

The Company’s valuation methods produce fair values that may not be indicative of net realizable value or future fair values. The use of different methodologies or assumptions to determine fair value of certain financial instruments could result in a materially different estimate of fair value at the reporting date.

The categorization within the fair value hierarchy is determined based on whether the inputs to valuation techniques used to measure fair value are observable or unobservable. Observable inputs reflect market data obtained from independent sources, while unobservable inputs reflect Company estimates of market assumptions. The fair value hierarchy prioritizes model inputs into three broad levels, with Level 1 being the highest and Level 3 the lowest. The categorization, of an asset or liability, within the hierarchy is based on the lowest level of significant input to its valuation.

Level 1—Quoted prices for identical instruments in active markets. The Company generally defines an active market as a market in which trading occurs at significant volumes. Active markets generally are more liquid and have a lower bid-ask spread than an inactive market.

Level 2—Quoted prices for similar instruments in active markets; quoted prices for identical or similar instruments in markets that are not active; and observable inputs other than quoted prices, such as interest rates or yield curves and other inputs derived from or corroborated by observable market inputs.

Level 3—Model derived valuations in which one or more significant inputs or significant value drivers are unobservable. Financial instruments are considered Level 3 when their values are (i) determined using pricing models, discounted cash flow methodologies or similar techniques and (ii) at least one significant model assumption or input is unobservable. Level 3 financial instruments also include those for which the determination of fair value requires significant management judgment or estimation.

There were transfers of securities into Level 3 in the investment portfolio, due to changes in observability of pricing inputs, and in CIVs, in connection with the distribution of assets from the CIV, in third quarter 2024 and nine months 2024. There was a transfer of a fixed-maturity security in the investment portfolio from Level 3 to Level 2 during third quarter 2023 and nine months 2023. There were no other transfers from or into Level 3 during the periods presented.

Carried at Fair Value

Fixed-Maturity Securities

The fair value of fixed-maturity securities is generally based on prices received from third-party pricing services or alternative pricing sources that provide reasonable levels of price transparency. The pricing services prepare estimates of fair value using their pricing models, which take into account: benchmark yields, reported trades, broker/dealer quotes, issuer spreads, two-sided markets, benchmark securities, bids, offers, reference data, industry and economic events and sector groupings. Additional valuation factors that can be taken into account are nominal spreads and liquidity adjustments. The pricing services evaluate each asset class based on relevant market and credit information, perceived market movements and sector news.

In many cases, benchmark yields have proven to be more reliable indicators of the market for a security, as compared to reported trades for infrequently traded securities and distressed transactions. The extent of the use of each input is dependent on the asset class and the market conditions. The valuation of fixed-maturity securities is more subjective when markets are less liquid due to the lack of market-based inputs.

As of September 30, 2024, the Company used models to price 175 securities. All Level 3 securities were priced with the assistance of independent third parties. The pricing is based on a discounted cash flow approach using the third party’s proprietary pricing models. The models use inputs such as projected prepayment speeds; severity assumptions; recovery lag assumptions; estimated default rates (determined based on an analysis of collateral attributes, historical collateral performance, borrower profiles and other features relevant to the evaluation of collateral credit quality); home price appreciation/depreciation rates based on macroeconomic forecasts; and recent trading activity. The yield used to discount the projected cash flows is determined by reviewing various attributes of the security including collateral type, weighted average life, sensitivity to losses, vintage, and convexity, in conjunction with market data on comparable securities. Significant changes to any of these inputs could have materially changed the expected timing of cash flows within these securities which could have significantly affected the fair value of the securities.

Short-Term Investments

Short-term investments that are traded in active markets are classified as Level 1 as their value is based on quoted market prices. Securities such as discount notes are classified as Level 2 because these securities are typically not actively traded. Due to their approaching maturity the cost of discount notes approximates fair value.

Other Assets

Committed Capital Securities

AG has entered into put agreements with eight separate custodial trusts allowing it to issue an aggregate of $400 million of non-cumulative redeemable perpetual preferred securities to the trusts in exchange for cash.

The arrangement entails eight custodial trusts (Woodbourne Capital Trust I, II, III and IV and Sutton Capital Trust I, II, III and IV), each of which issued $50 million face amount of “committed capital securities” (CCS) and invested the proceeds of that issuance in eligible assets that would enable the trust to have the cash necessary to respond to AG’s exercise of a put option.

The put option consists of a right that AG has, pursuant to separate put agreements that AG entered into with each of the trusts, to issue to each trust $50 million of non-cumulative redeemable perpetual preferred stock, in exchange for an equivalent amount of cash (i.e., an aggregate of $400 million). When AG exercises its put option, the relevant trust(s) must liquidate the portfolio of high-quality, liquid assets that it currently maintains and use the liquidation proceeds to purchase AG preferred stock. The put agreements have no scheduled termination date or maturity, but may be terminated upon the occurrence of certain specified events. None of the events that would give rise to a termination of the put agreements have occurred.

The fair value of CCS, which is reported in other assets on the condensed consolidated balance sheets, represents the difference between the present value of the remaining expected put option premium payments under the put agreements, and the estimated present value of the amounts that the Company would hypothetically have to pay as of the reporting date for a

comparable security. The change in fair value of the CCS are reported in “fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities” in the condensed consolidated statements of operations. The estimated cost of the Company’s CCS as of the reporting date is based on several factors, including AG CDS spreads, the Company’s publicly traded debt and an estimation of the securities’ remaining term. The CCS are classified as Level 3.

Supplemental Executive Retirement Plans

The Company classified assets included in the Company’s various supplemental executive retirement plans as either Level 1 or Level 2. The fair value of these assets is based on the observable published daily values of the underlying mutual funds included in the plans (Level 1) or based upon the net asset value (NAV) of the funds if a published daily value is not available (Level 2). The NAVs are based on observable information. The change in fair value of these assets is reported in “other operating expenses” in the condensed consolidated statements of operations.

Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives

The Company’s credit derivatives, which primarily consist of insured CDS contracts, qualify as derivatives under GAAP that require fair value measurement, with changes in fair value reported in the condensed consolidated statements of operations. The Company does not enter into CDS contracts with the intent to trade these contracts and may not unilaterally terminate a CDS contract absent an event of default or termination event that entitles the Company to terminate such contract. The Company and its counterparties have negotiated the termination of certain contracts from time to time. Transactions are generally terminated for an amount that approximates the present value of future premiums or a negotiated amount, rather than fair value.

The terms of the Company’s CDS contracts differ from more standardized credit derivative contracts sold by companies outside the financial guaranty industry. The non-standard terms generally include the absence of collateral support agreements or immediate settlement provisions, and the Company’s insured exposure benefits from relatively high attachment points or other protections. Management considers the non-standard terms of the Company’s credit derivative contracts in determining the fair value of these contracts.

There is no established market where financial guaranty insured credit derivatives are actively traded; therefore, management has determined that the exit market for the Company’s credit derivatives is a hypothetical one based on its entry market. Due to the lack of quoted prices and other observable inputs for its instruments or for similar instruments, the Company determines the fair value of its credit derivative contracts primarily through internally developed, proprietary models that use both observable and unobservable market data inputs, and such contracts are therefore classified as Level 3 in the fair value hierarchy. There are multiple unobservable inputs deemed significant to the valuation model, most importantly the Company’s estimate of the value of the non-standard terms and conditions of its credit derivative contracts and how the Company’s own credit spread affects the pricing of its transactions.

The fair value of the Company’s credit derivative contracts generally represents the difference between the present value of remaining premiums the Company expects to receive and the estimated present value of premiums that a financial guarantor of comparable credit-worthiness would hypothetically charge at the reporting date for the same protection. The fair value of the Company’s credit derivatives depends on a number of factors, including notional amount of the contract, expected term, credit spreads, changes in interest rates, the credit ratings of referenced entities, the Company’s own credit risk and remaining contractual cash flows. The expected remaining contractual premium cash flows are the most readily observable inputs since they are based on the CDS contractual terms. Credit spreads capture the effect of recovery rates and performance of underlying assets of these contracts, among other factors. Consistent with previous years, market conditions as of September 30, 2024 were such that market prices of the Company’s CDS contracts were not available.

Assumptions and Inputs

The various inputs and assumptions that are key to the measurement of the Company’s fair value for CDS contracts are as follows: the gross spread, the allocation of gross spread among the bank profit, net spread and hedge cost and the weighted average life (which is based on debt service schedules).

The primary sources of information used to determine gross spread and the fair value for CDS contracts include actual collateral credit spreads (if up-to-date and reliable market-based spreads are available), transactions priced or closed during a specific quarter within a specific asset class and specific rating, and information provided by the counterparty of the CDS.

Credit spreads may also be interpolated based upon market indices adjusted to reflect the non-standard terms of the Company’s CDS contracts, or extrapolated based upon transactions of similar asset classes, similar ratings, and similar time to maturity.

The Company’s pricing model considers not only how credit spreads on its insured risks affect pricing, but also how the Company’s own credit spread affects the pricing of its transactions. The amount of premium a financial guaranty insurance market participant can demand (or “current premium”) is inversely related to the cost of credit protection on the insurance company as measured by market credit spreads assuming all other assumptions remain constant. This is because the buyers of credit protection typically hedge a portion of their risk to the financial guarantor, because the contractual terms of the Company’s contracts typically do not require the posting of collateral by the guarantor. The extent of the hedge depends on the types of instruments insured and the current market conditions.

The Company’s own credit risk is factored into the determination of the current premium based on the quoted market price for credit protection bought on the Company, as reflected by quoted market prices on CDS contracts referencing AG. The Company obtains the quoted price of CDS contracts traded on AG from market data sources published by third parties. As the cost to acquire CDS protection referencing AG increases, the amount of premium the Company retains on a transaction generally decreases.

In the Company’s valuation model, the current premium is not permitted to go below the minimum rate that the Company would charge to assume similar risks in the reporting period. This assumption can have the effect of limiting the amount of unrealized gains that are recognized on certain CDS contracts. Approximately 16.4% and 11.5%, based on fair value, of the Company’s CDS contracts were fair valued using this minimum premium as of September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.

A credit derivative liability on protection sold is the result of contractual cash inflows on in-force transactions that are lower than what a hypothetical financial guarantor could receive if it sold protection on the same risk as of the reporting date. If the Company were able to freely exchange these contracts (i.e., assuming its contracts did not contain proscriptions on transfer and there was a viable exchange market), it would realize a loss representing the difference between the lower contractual premiums to which it is entitled and the current market premiums for a similar contract. The Company determines the fair value of its CDS contracts by applying the difference between the current premium and the contractual premium for the remaining duration of each contract to the notional value of such contract and then discounting such amounts using the applicable discount rate corresponding to the weighted average remaining life of the contract. The rates used to discount future expected premium cash flows ranged from 3.08% to 4.27% as of September 30, 2024 and 3.26% to 4.81% as of December 31, 2023.

The Company’s credit derivative valuation model is a consistent approach that takes into account the transaction structure and the key drivers of market value and maximizes the use of market-driven inputs whenever they are available. However, because there is no exit market or any actual exit transactions, the Company’s exit market is a hypothetical one based on the Company’s entry market and there is a very limited and illiquid market in which to validate the reasonableness of the fair values developed by the Company’s model.

FG VIEs’ Assets and Liabilities

FG VIEs include Puerto Rico Trusts and structured finance and other FG VIEs. As of September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, assets in the Puerto Rico Trusts, consisted of one fixed-maturity debt security classified as Level 3. The Company elected the FVO for the Puerto Rico Trusts’ liabilities and they are classified as Level 3. Structured finance and other FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities are carried at fair value under the FVO and are classified as Level 3.

The fair value of the residential mortgage loan FG VIEs’ assets is generally sensitive to changes in estimated prepayment speeds; estimated default rates (determined on the basis of an analysis of collateral attributes such as: historical collateral performance, borrower profiles and other features relevant to the evaluation of collateral credit quality); yields implied by market prices for similar securities; and, as applicable, house price depreciation/appreciation rates based on macroeconomic forecasts. Significant changes to some of these inputs could have materially changed the fair value of the FG VIEs’ assets and the implied collateral losses within these transactions. In general, the fair value of the FG VIEs’ assets is most sensitive to changes in the projected collateral losses, where an increase in collateral losses typically leads to a potential decrease in the fair value of FG VIEs’ assets, while a decrease in collateral losses typically leads to an increase in the fair value of FG VIEs’ assets.

The prices of the assets and liabilities of the FG VIEs are generally determined with the assistance of an independent third party, based on a discounted cash flow approach. The third party pricing service utilizes an internal model to determine an appropriate yield at which to discount the cash flows of the security, by factoring in collateral types, weighted-average lives and other structural attributes specific to the security being priced. The expected yield is further calibrated by utilizing algorithms designed to aggregate market color, received by the independent third party, on comparable bonds.

The models used to price the FG VIEs’ liabilities (other than the liabilities of the Puerto Rico Trusts) generally apply the same inputs used in determining fair value of FG VIEs’ assets. For those liabilities insured by the Company, the benefit of the Company’s insurance policy guaranteeing the timely payment of debt service is also taken into account. The liabilities of the Puerto Rico Trusts are priced based on the value of the assets in the Puerto Rico Trusts including the value of the Company’s insurance subsidiary that issued the financial guaranty policy.

Significant changes to any of the inputs described above could materially change the timing of expected losses within an insured transaction. This is a significant factor in determining the implied benefit of the Company’s insurance policy which guarantees the timely payment of principal and interest for the insured tranches of debt issued by the FG VIEs. In general, extending the timing of expected loss payments by the Company typically leads to a decrease in the value of the Company’s insurance and a decrease in the fair value of the Company’s FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse, while a shortening of the timing of expected loss payments by the Company typically could lead to an increase in the value of the Company’s insurance and an increase in the fair value of the Company’s FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse.

The change in fair value of FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities is reported in “fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs” in the condensed consolidated statement of operations, except for the change in fair value attributable to change in ISCR on FG VIEs’ liabilities, which is reported in other comprehensive income. Interest income and interest expense are derived from the trustee reports and also included in “fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs.”

Assets and Liabilities of CIVs

Investments held by CIVs which are quoted on a national securities exchange are valued at their last reported sale price on the date of determination. Investments held by CIVs which are traded over-the-counter reflect third-party data generally at the average of dealer offer and bid prices. The valuation methodology may include, but is not limited to: (i) performing price comparisons with similar investments; (ii) obtaining valuation-related information from issuers; (iii) calculating the present value of future cash flows; (iv) assessing other data related to the investment that is an indication of value; (v) obtaining information provided by third parties; and/or (vi) evaluating information provided by the investment manager. Inputs may include dealer price quotations, yield curves, credit curves, forward/CDS/index spreads, prepayments rates, strike and expiry dates, volatility statistics and other factors.

Significant changes to any of the inputs described above could have a material effect on the fair value of the consolidated assets and liabilities.

Amounts recorded at fair value in the Company’s financial statements are presented in the tables below. 

Fair Value Hierarchy of Financial Instruments Carried at Fair Value

As of September 30, 2024

	Fair Value Hierarchy
	Level 1		Level 2		Level 3		Total
	(in millions)
Assets:
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale
Obligations of state and political subdivisions	$	—	$	2,112	$	7	$	2,119
U.S. government and agencies	—		71		—		71
Corporate securities	—		2,404		—		2,404
Mortgage-backed securities:
RMBS	—		392		152		544
CMBS	—		180		—		180
Asset-backed securities	—		104		787		891
Non-U.S. government securities	—		75		—		75
Total fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale	—		5,338		946		6,284
Fixed-maturity securities, trading	—		157		6		163
Short-term investments	1,482		5		—		1,487
Other invested assets (1)	—		—		5		5
FG VIEs’ assets	—		—		156		156
Assets of CIVs:
Equity securities	—		—		97		97
Structured products	—		—		237		237
Total assets of CIVs	—		—		334		334
Other assets	64		59		6		129
Total assets carried at fair value	$	1,546	$	5,559	$	1,453	$	8,558
Liabilities:
Credit derivative liabilities	$	—	$	—	$	39	$	39
FG VIEs’ liabilities (2)	—		—		392		392
Total liabilities carried at fair value	$	—	$	—	$	431	$	431

Fair Value Hierarchy of Financial Instruments Carried at Fair Value

As of December 31, 2023  

	Fair Value Hierarchy
	Level 1		Level 2		Level 3		Total
	(in millions)
Assets:
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for sale
Obligations of state and political subdivisions	$	—	$	2,655	$	6	$	2,661
U.S. government and agencies	—		60		—		60
Corporate securities	—		2,141		—		2,141
Mortgage-backed securities:
RMBS	—		188		154		342
CMBS	—		151		—		151
Asset-backed securities	—		49		803		852
Non-U.S. government securities	—		100		—		100
Total fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale	—		5,344		963		6,307
Fixed-maturity securities, trading	—		318		—		318
Short-term investments	1,657		4		—		1,661
Other invested assets (1)	—		—		3		3
FG VIEs’ assets	—		—		174		174
Assets of CIVs:
Equity securities and warrants	—		3		80		83
Structured products	—		59		189		248
Total assets of CIVs	—		62		269		331
Other assets	55		52		16		123
Total assets carried at fair value	$	1,712	$	5,780	$	1,425	$	8,917
Liabilities:
Credit derivative liabilities	$	—	$	—	$	53	$	53
FG VIEs’ liabilities (2)	—		—		554		554
Total liabilities carried at fair value	$	—	$	—	$	607	$	607

___________________

(1)    Includes Level 3 mortgage loans that are recorded at fair value on a non-recurring basis.

(2)    Includes FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse and FG VIEs’ liabilities without recourse. See Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles.

Changes in Level 3 Fair Value Measurements

The tables below present a roll forward of the Company’s Level 3 financial instruments carried at fair value on a recurring basis during third quarter 2024, third quarter 2023, nine months 2024 and nine months 2023.

Roll Forward of Level 3 Assets (Liabilities) at Fair Value on a Recurring Basis

Third Quarter 2024

	Fixed-Maturity Securities, Available-for-Sale													Assets of CIVs
	Obligations of State and Political Subdivisions		RMBS			Asset- Backed Securities			Fixed-Maturity Securities, Trading		FG VIEs’ Assets			Equity Securities			Structured Products			Other (7)
	(in millions)
Fair value as of June 30, 2024	$	7	$	150		$	795		$	—	$	160		$	93		$	225		$	6
Total pre-tax realized and unrealized gains (losses) recorded in:
Net income (loss)	—		5		(1)	7		(1)	—		2		(2)	9		(4)	(5)		(4)	(4)		(3)
Other comprehensive income (loss)	—		3			(3)			—		—			—			—			1
Purchases	—		—			19			—		—			—			25			1
Sales	—		—			—			—		—			(3)			—			—
Settlements	—		(6)			(31)			(2)		(6)			—			—			—
Reclassifications (10)	—		—			—			8		—			—			(8)			—
Transfers out of Level 3	—		—			—			—		—			(2)			—			—
Fair value as of September 30, 2024	$	7	$	152		$	787		$	6	$	156		$	97		$	237		$	4
Change in unrealized gains (losses) related to financial instruments held as of September 30, 2024 included in:
Earnings									$	—	$	—		$	9	(4)	$	(1)	(4)	$	(4)	(3)
OCI	$	—	$	3		$	(3)													$	1

Roll Forward of Level 3 Assets (Liabilities) at Fair Value on a Recurring Basis

Third Quarter 2024

	Credit Derivative Liability, net (5)			FG VIEs’ Liabilities (8)
	(in millions)
Fair value as of June 30, 2024	$	(34)		$	(393)
Total pre-tax realized and unrealized gains (losses) recorded in:
Net income (loss)	3		(6)	(3)		(2)
Other comprehensive income (loss)	—			(1)
Issuances	(2)			—
Settlements	(1)			5
Fair value as of September 30, 2024	$	(34)		$	(392)
Change in unrealized gains (losses) related to financial instruments held as of September 30, 2024 included in:
Earnings	$	1	(6)	$	(4)	(2)
OCI				$	(1)

Roll Forward of Level 3 Assets (Liabilities) at Fair Value on a Recurring Basis

Third Quarter 2023

	Fixed-Maturity Securities, Available-for-Sale											Assets of CIVs
	Obligations of State and Political Subdivisions		RMBS			Asset- Backed Securities			FG VIEs’ Assets			Equity Securities			Corporate Securities		Structured Products			Other (7)
	(in millions)
Fair value as of June 30, 2023	$	46	$	162		$	800		$	188		$	290		$	84	$	—		$	33
Total pre-tax realized and unrealized gains (losses) recorded in:
Net income (loss)	—		4		(1)	13		(1)	1		(2)	5		(4)	—		7		(4)	(20)		(3)
Other comprehensive income (loss)	(3)		(6)			(2)			—			—			—		—			—
Purchases	—		—			—			—			3			—		—			—
Sales	—		—			—			—			(4)			—		—			—
Settlements	(1)		(7)			(15)			(9)			—			—		—			—
Consolidations	—		—			—			—			—			—		—			—
Deconsolidations	—		—			—			—			(219)			(84)		166			—
Transfers out of Level 3	(40)		—			—			—			—			—		—			—
Fair value as of September 30, 2023	$	2	$	153		$	796		$	180		$	75		$	—	$	173		$	13
Change in unrealized gains (losses) related to financial instruments held as of September 30, 2023 included in:
Earnings									$	—		$	6	(4)	$	—	$	7	(4)	$	(20)	(3)
OCI	$	—	$	(6)		$	3													$	—

Roll Forward of Level 3 Assets (Liabilities) at Fair Value on a Recurring Basis

Third Quarter 2023

	Credit Derivative Liability, net (5)			FG VIEs’ Liabilities (8)			Liabilities of CIVs (9)
	(in millions)
Fair value as of June 30, 2023	$	(57)		$	(699)		$	(4,199)
Total pre-tax realized and unrealized gains (losses) recorded in:
Net income (loss)	9		(6)	17		(2)	—
Other comprehensive income (loss)	—			13			—
Settlements	(1)			127			—
Deconsolidations	—			—			4,199
Fair value as of September 30, 2023	$	(49)		$	(542)		$	—
Change in unrealized gains (losses) related to financial instruments held as of September 30, 2023 included in:
Earnings	$	9	(6)	$	9	(2)	$	—
OCI				$	13		$	—

Roll Forward of Level 3 Assets (Liabilities) at Fair Value on a Recurring Basis

Nine Months 2024

	Fixed-Maturity Securities, Available-for-Sale								Fixed-Maturity Securities, Trading					Assets of CIVs
	Obligations of State and Political Subdivisions		RMBS			Asset- Backed Securities					FG VIEs’ Assets			Equity Securities			Structured Products			Other (7)
	(in millions)
Fair value as of December 31, 2023	$	6	$	154		$	803		$	—	$	174		$	80		$	189		$	14
Total pre-tax realized and unrealized gains (losses) recorded in:
Net income (loss)	—		12		(1)	24		(1)	—		(1)		(2)	21		(4)	(10)		(4)	(12)		(3)
Other comprehensive income (loss)	2		5			5			—		1			—			—			1
Purchases	—		—			30			—		—			—			76			1
Sales	—		—			—			—		—			(5)			(20)			—
Settlements	(1)		(19)			(95)			(2)		(18)			—			—			—
Reclassifications (10)	—		—			—			8		—			—			(8)			—
Transfers into Level 3	—		—			20			—		—			3			10			—
Transfers out of Level 3	—		—			—			—		—			(2)			—			—
Fair value as of September 30, 2024	$	7	$	152		$	787		$	6	$	156		$	97		$	237		$	4
Change in unrealized gains (losses) related to financial instruments held as of September 30, 2024 included in:
Earnings									$	—	$	(5)	(2)	$	21	(4)	$	(3)	(4)	$	(12)	(3)
OCI	$	2	$	5		$	3				$	1								$	1

Roll Forward of Level 3 Assets (Liabilities) at Fair Value on a Recurring Basis

Nine Months 2024

	Credit Derivative Liability, net (5)			FG VIEs’ Liabilities (8)
	(in millions)
Fair value as of December 31, 2023	$	(50)		$	(554)
Total pre-tax realized and unrealized gains (losses) recorded in:
Net income (loss)	19		(6)	6		(2)
Other comprehensive income (loss)	—			(1)
Issuances	(2)			—
Settlements	(1)			157
Fair value as of September 30, 2024	$	(34)		$	(392)
Change in unrealized gains (losses) related to financial instruments held as of September 30, 2024 included in:
Earnings	$	9	(6)	$	—
OCI				$	(1)

Roll Forward of Level 3 Assets (Liabilities) at Fair Value on a Recurring Basis

Nine Months 2023

	Fixed-Maturity Securities, Available-for-Sale												Assets of CIVs
	Obligations of State and Political Subdivisions			RMBS			Asset- Backed Securities			FG VIEs’ Assets			Equity Securities and Warrants			Corporate Securities			Structured Products			Other (7)
	(in millions)
Fair value as of December 31, 2022	$	47		$	179		$	794		$	204		$	297		$	96		$	46		$	50
Total pre-tax realized and unrealized gains (losses) recorded in:
Net income (loss)	1		(1)	11		(1)	13		(1)	—			45		(4)	(3)		(4)	9		(4)	(33)		(3)
Other comprehensive income (loss)	(3)			(14)			(10)			—			—			—			—			—
Purchases	—			—			23			—			41			6			—			—
Sales	—			—			(2)			—			(89)			(15)			(48)			—
Settlements	(3)			(23)			(22)			(24)			—			—			—			(4)
Deconsolidations	—			—			—			—			(219)			(84)			166			—
Transfers out of Level 3	(40)			—			—			—			—			—			—			—
Fair value as of September 30, 2023	$	2		$	153		$	796		$	180		$	75		$	—		$	173		$	13
Change in unrealized gains (losses) related to financial instruments held as of September 30, 2023 included in:
Earnings										$	(3)	(2)	$	6	(4)	$	—		$	7	(4)	$	(33)	(3)
OCI	$	—		$	(13)		$	—														$	—

Roll Forward of Level 3 Assets (Liabilities) at Fair Value on a Recurring Basis

Nine Months 2023

	Credit Derivative Liability, net (5)			FG VIEs’ Liabilities (8)			Liabilities of CIVs (9)
	(in millions)
Fair value as of December 31, 2022	$	(162)		$	(715)		$	(4,154)
Total pre-tax realized and unrealized gains (losses) recorded in:
Net income (loss)	115		(6)	18		(2)	(45)		(4)
Other comprehensive income (loss)	—			14			(13)
Settlements	(2)			141			13
Deconsolidations	—			—			4,199
Fair value as of September 30, 2023	$	(49)		$	(542)		$	—
Change in unrealized gains (losses) related to financial instruments held as of September 30, 2023 included in:
Earnings	$	114	(6)	$	11	(2)	$	—
OCI				$	14		$	—

____________________

(1)Included in “net realized investment gains (losses)” and “net investment income.”

(2)Included in “fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs.”

(3)Reported in “fair value gains (losses) on CCS,” “net investment income” and “other income (loss).”

(4)Reported in “fair value gains (losses) on CIVs.”

(5)Represents the net position of credit derivatives. Credit derivative assets (reported in “other assets”) and credit derivative liabilities (presented as a separate line item) are shown as either assets or liabilities in the condensed consolidated balance sheets based on policy.

(6)Reported in “fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives.”

(7)Includes CCS and other invested assets.

(8)Includes FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse and FG VIEs’ liabilities without recourse.

(9)Includes primarily various tranches of CLO debt. The CLOs were collateralized financing entities that were consolidated until the Sound Point Transaction occurred on July 1, 2023.

(10)Represent securities transferred from one of the CIVs to the investment portfolio due to the distribution of assets of that CIV. See Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles, for additional information.

Level 3 Fair Value Disclosures

Quantitative Information About Level 3 Fair Value Inputs

As of September 30, 2024

Financial Instrument Description	Fair Value Assets (Liabilities) (in millions)		Significant Unobservable Inputs	Range				Weighted Average (4)
Investments (2):
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale (1):
Obligations of state and political subdivisions	$	7	Yield	5.5	%	-	20.0%	6.9%
RMBS	152		CPR	1.8	%	-	17.0%	2.5%
			CDR	1.8	%	-	18.7%	5.5%
			Loss severity	50.0	%	-	125.0%	79.9%
			Yield	7.1	%	-	10.4%	8.6%
Asset-backed securities:
CLOs	383		Discount margin	1.0	%	-	10.0%	2.3%
Others	404		Yield	7.0	%	-	10.1%	7.3%
Fixed-maturity securities, trading (1)	6		Yield	21.6	%	-	41.6%	28.8%
FG VIEs’ assets (1)	156		CPR	0.2	%	-	22.9%	6.3%
			CDR	1.3	%	-	41.0%	10.6%
			Loss severity	45.0	%	-	100.0%	83.1%
			Yield	5.5	%	-	10.0%	9.0%
Assets of CIVs (3):
Equity securities	97		Discount rate	19.7	%	-	42.3%	24.8%
			Market multiple-price to book	1.05x
			Market multiple-price to earnings	5.50x
			Terminal growth rate	4.0%
			Exit multiple-price to book	1.05x
			Exit multiple-price to earnings	5.25x
Structured products	237		Yield	12.2	%	-	42.3%	15.5%
Other assets (1)	1		Implied Yield	7.0	%	-	7.5%	7.2%
			Term (years)	10 years
Credit derivative liabilities, net (1)	(34)		Hedge cost (in basis points) (bps)	11.6		-	26.1	15.4
			Bank profit (in bps)	77.0		-	277.0	140.0
			Internal floor (in bps)	10.0		-	85.5	29.6
			Internal credit rating	AAA		-	CCC	A
FG VIEs’ liabilities (1)	(392)		CPR	0.2	%	-	22.9%	6.3%
			CDR	1.3	%	-	41.0%	10.6%
			Loss severity	45.0	%	-	100.0%	83.1%
			Yield	4.4	%	-	10.0%	5.7%

___________________

(1)    Discounted cash flow is used as the primary valuation technique.

(2)    Excludes several investments reported in “other invested assets” with a fair value of $5 million.

(3)    The primary valuation technique uses the income and/or market approach; the key inputs to the valuation are yield/

discount rates and market multiples.

(4)    Weighted average is calculated as a percentage of current par outstanding for all categories except for assets of CIVs,

for which it is calculated as a percentage of fair value.

Quantitative Information About Level 3 Fair Value Inputs

As of December 31, 2023

Financial Instrument Description	Fair Value Assets (Liabilities) (in millions)		Significant Unobservable Inputs	Range				Weighted Average (4)
Investments (2):
Fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale (1):
Obligations of state and political subdivisions	$	6	Yield	7.4	%	-	22.5%	7.8%
RMBS	154		CPR	0.1	%	-	15.0%	3.4%
			CDR	1.5	%	-	18.8%	5.6%
			Loss severity	50.0	%	-	125.0%	82.6%
			Yield	7.5	%	-	11.3%	8.9%
Asset-backed securities:
CLOs	450		Discount margin	1.1	%	-	9.5%	2.6%
Others	353		Yield	6.2	%	-	11.7%	7.8%
FG VIEs’ assets (1)	174		CPR	0.2	%	-	21.4%	7.8%
			CDR	1.3	%	-	41.0%	10.4%
			Loss severity	45.0	%	-	100.0%	82.9%
			Yield	5.5	%	-	10.9%	9.4%
Assets of CIVs (3):
Equity securities	80		Discount rate	20.9%
			Market multiple-price to book	1.10x
			Market multiple-price to earnings	5.50x
			Terminal growth rate	4.0%
			Exit multiple-price to book	1.10x
			Exit multiple-price to earnings	5.50x
Structured products	189		Yield	14.7	%	-	21.4%	18.0%
Other assets (1)	13		Implied Yield	7.8	%	-	8.4%	8.1%
			Term (years)	10 years
Credit derivative liabilities, net (1)	(50)		Hedge cost (in bps)	10.2		-	26.5	15.8
			Bank profit (in bps)	105.6		-	302.6	158.6
			Internal floor (in bps)	10.0
			Internal credit rating	AAA		-	CCC	A
FG VIEs’ liabilities (1)	(554)		CPR	0.2	%	-	21.4%	7.8%
			CDR	1.3	%	-	41.0%	10.4%
			Loss severity	45.0	%	-	100.0%	82.9%
			Yield	5.0	%	-	10.7%	5.8%

____________________

(1)    Discounted cash flow is used as the primary valuation technique.

(2)    Excludes several investments reported in “other invested assets” with a fair value of $3 million.

(3)    The primary valuation technique uses the income and/or market approach, the key inputs to the valuation are yield/

discount rates and market multiples.

(4)    Weighted average is calculated as a percentage of current par outstanding for all categories except for assets of CIVs,

for which it is calculated as a percentage of fair value.

Not Carried at Fair Value

Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts

Fair value is based on management’s estimate of the consideration that would be paid to, or received from, a similarly rated financial guaranty insurance company to acquire the Company’s in-force book of financial guaranty insurance business. It is based upon the ratio of current trends in premium pricing to risk-based expected loss for investment grade portions of the portfolio and stressed loss pricing for BIG transactions. The Company classified the fair value of financial guaranty insurance contracts as Level 3.

Long-Term Debt

Long-term debt issued by the U.S. Holding Companies is valued by broker-dealers using independent third-party pricing sources and standard market conventions and classified as Level 2 in the fair value hierarchy. The market conventions utilize market quotations, market transactions for the Company’s comparable instruments, and to a lesser extent, similar instruments in the broader insurance industry.

Assets and Liabilities of CIVs

Cash equivalents are recorded at cost which approximates fair value. Due from/to brokers and counterparties primarily consists of cash, margin deposits, cash collateral with the clearing brokers and various counterparties and the net amounts receivable/payable for securities transactions that had not settled at the balance sheet date. Due from/to brokers and counterparties represents balances on a net-by-counterparty basis on the condensed consolidated balance sheets where a contractual right of offset exists under an enforceable netting arrangement. The cash at brokers is partially related to derivative contracts; its use is therefore restricted until the derivative contracts are closed. The carrying value approximates fair value of these items and are considered Level 1 in the fair value hierarchy.

The carrying amount and estimated fair value of the Company’s financial instruments not carried at fair value are presented in the following table.

Fair Value of Financial Instruments Not Carried at Fair Value

	As of September 30, 2024				As of December 31, 2023
	Carrying Amount		Estimated Fair Value		Carrying Amount		Estimated Fair Value
	(in millions)
Assets (liabilities):
Assets of CIVs	$	31	$	31	$	19	$	19
Other assets (including other invested assets)	115		116		79		80
Financial guaranty insurance contracts (1)	(1,946)		(1,709)		(2,244)		(1,811)
Long-term debt	(1,698)		(1,625)		(1,694)		(1,593)
Other liabilities	(71)		(71)		(15)		(15)

____________________

(1)    Carrying amount includes the assets and liabilities related to financial guaranty insurance contract premiums, losses and salvage and subrogation and other recoverables net of reinsurance.