Expected cash outflows and inflows are probability weighted cash flows that reflect management’s assumptions about the likelihood of all possible outcomes based on all information available to the Company. Those assumptions consider the relevant facts and circumstances and are consistent with the information tracked and monitored through the Company’s surveillance and risk management functions. Expected loss to be paid (recovered) is important in that it represents the present value of amounts that the Company expects to pay or recover in future periods.

Insured obligations with expected losses that were purchased by the Company are referred to as Loss Mitigation Securities and are recorded in the investment portfolio at fair value, excluding the value of the Company’s insurance. Concurrently, the Company reduces any related expected loss to be paid (recovered). For Loss Mitigation Securities, the difference between the purchase price of the insured obligation and the fair value excluding the value of the Company’s insurance (on the date of acquisition) is treated as a paid loss. See Note 7, Investments, and Note 9, Fair Value Measurement.

Similarly, in cases where issuers of insured obligations elected (or where an issuer and the Company negotiated) to deliver the underlying collateral, insured obligation, or a new security to the Company, expected loss to be paid (recovered) is adjusted accordingly and the asset received is prospectively accounted for under the applicable guidance for that instrument.

Economic loss development (benefit) represents the change in net expected loss to be paid (recovered) attributable to the effects of changes in the economic performance of insured transactions, changes in assumptions based on observed market trends, changes in discount rates, accretion of discount and the economic effects of loss mitigation efforts.

In order to effectively evaluate and manage the economics and liquidity of the entire insured portfolio, management assigns ratings and calculates expected loss to be paid (recovered), on a contract-by-contract basis, in the same manner for all its exposures regardless of form or differing accounting models. The exposure reported in Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, includes policies accounted for under various accounting models depending on the characteristics of the contract and the Company’s control rights. The three primary models are: (i) insurance, as described in Note 5, Contracts Accounted for as Insurance; (ii) derivatives, as described in Note 6, Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives, and Note 9, Fair Value Measurement; and (iii) FG VIE consolidation, as described in Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles. The Company has paid and expects to pay future losses and/or recover past losses on policies which fall under each of these accounting models. This note provides information regarding expected claim payments to be made and/or recovered, regardless of the accounting method.

The Company’s loss reserve committees estimate expected loss to be paid (recovered) by reviewing analyses that consider various scenarios with corresponding probabilities assigned to them. Depending upon the characteristics of the risk, the Company’s view of the potential size of any loss and the information available to the Company, that analysis may be based upon individually developed cash flow models, internal credit rating assessments, sector-driven loss severity assumptions and/or judgmental assessments. In the case of its assumed business, the Company may conduct its own analysis as just described or, depending on the Company’s view of the potential size of any loss and the information available to the Company, the Company may use loss estimates provided by ceding insurers. Each quarter, the Company’s loss reserve committees review and refresh their loss projection assumptions, scenarios and the probabilities they assign to those scenarios based on developments during the period and their view of future performance.

The financial guaranties issued by the Company insure the credit performance of the guaranteed obligations over an extended period of time, in some cases over 30 years, and in most circumstances the Company has no right to cancel such financial guaranties. As a result, the Company’s estimate of ultimate loss on a policy is subject to significant uncertainty over the life of the insured transaction. Credit performance can be affected by, among other things, economic, fiscal and financial market and political developments over the life of most contracts.

The Company does not use traditional actuarial approaches to determine its estimates of expected losses. The determination of expected loss to be paid (recovered) is an inherently subjective process involving numerous estimates, assumptions and judgments by management, using both internal and external data sources with regard to frequency, and severity of loss, economic projections, governmental actions, legal developments, negotiations, recovery rates, delinquency and prepayment rates, timing of cash flows and other factors that affect credit performance. These estimates, assumptions and judgments, and the factors on which they are based, may change materially over a reporting period, and have a material effect on the Company’s financial statements. Each quarter, the Company may revise its scenarios and update its assumptions, including the probability weightings of its scenarios, based on public as well as nonpublic information obtained through its surveillance and loss mitigation activities.

Changes over a reporting period in the Company’s loss estimates for public finance obligations supported by specified revenue streams, such as revenue bonds issued by toll road authorities, municipal utilities, airport authorities or healthcare systems, generally will be influenced by factors impacting their revenue levels, such as changes in demand; changing demographics; and other economic factors, especially if the obligations do not benefit from financial support from other tax revenues or governmental authorities. Changes over a reporting period in the Company’s loss estimates for its tax-supported and general obligation public finance transactions generally will be influenced by factors impacting the public issuer’s ability and willingness to pay, such as changes in the economy and population of the relevant area; changes in the issuer’s ability or willingness to raise taxes, decrease spending or receive federal assistance; new legislation; rating agency actions that affect the issuer’s ability to refinance maturing obligations or issue new debt at a reasonable cost; changes in the priority or amount of pensions and other obligations owed to workers; developments in restructuring or settlement negotiations; and other political and economic factors. Changes in loss estimates may also be affected by the Company’s loss mitigation efforts and other variables.

Changes in the Company’s loss estimates for structured finance transactions can be influenced by the performance of the assets supporting those transactions, by macroeconomic factors and by specific actions taken to mitigate losses. For example, changes over a reporting period in the Company’s loss estimates for its RMBS transactions may be influenced by factors such as prepayments, the level and timing of loan defaults experienced, changes in housing prices, discount rates and results from the Company’s loss mitigation activities. Actual losses will ultimately depend on future events, transaction performance or other factors that are difficult to predict. As a result, the Company’s current projections of certain losses may be subject to considerable uncertainty and may not reflect the Company’s ultimate claims paid.

In some instances, the terms of the Company’s policy or the terms of certain workout orders and resolutions give it the option to pay principal losses that have been recognized in the transaction but which it is not yet required to pay, thereby reducing the amount of guaranteed interest due in the future. The Company has sometimes exercised this option, which results in an acceleration of cash outflows but reduces overall losses paid.


	Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered)				Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)
	As of				Third Quarter				Nine Months
Accounting Model	September 30, 2024		December 31, 2023		2024		2023		2024		2023
	(in millions)
Insurance (see Note 5)	$	70	$	263	$	(31)	$	92	$	(19)	$	160
FG VIEs (see Note 8) (1)	236		240		(1)		(6)		—		(15)
Credit derivatives (see Note 6)	—		2		(2)		1		(1)		2
Total	$	306	$	505	$	(34)	$	87	$	(20)	$	147

The following tables present a roll forward of net expected loss to be paid (recovered) for all contracts, which are accounted for under one of the following accounting models: insurance, derivative or FG VIE. The Company used risk-free rates for U.S. dollar denominated obligations that ranged from 3.52% to 4.96% with a weighted average of 3.74% as of September 30, 2024 and 3.79% to 5.40% with a weighted average of 4.10% as of December 31, 2023. Net expected losses to be paid for U.S. dollar denominated transactions represented approximately 71.7% and 96.1% of the total as of September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively. The Company used risk-free rates for non-U.S. dollar denominated obligations that ranged from 1.86% to 4.95% with a weighted average of 3.94% as of September 30, 2024 and 1.90% to 5.21% with a weighted average of 3.28% as of December 31, 2023.


		Third Quarter				Nine Months
		2024		2023		2024		2023
	(in millions)
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), beginning of period		$	447	$	560	$	505	$	522
Economic loss development (benefit) due to:
Accretion of discount		5		6		14		15
Changes in discount rates		3		(12)		1		(8)
Changes in timing and assumptions		(42)		93		(35)		140
Total economic loss development (benefit)		(34)		87		(20)		147
Net (paid) recovered losses		(107)		(157)		(179)		(179)
Net expected loss to be paid (recovered), end of period		$	306	$	490	$	306	$	490


	Third Quarter 2024
Sector	Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of June 30, 2024		Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)		Net (Paid) Recovered Losses (1)		Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of September 30, 2024
	(in millions)
Public finance:
U.S. public finance	$	374	$	(23)	$	(113)	$	238
Non-U.S. public finance	37		46		(2)		81
Public finance	411		23		(115)		319
Structured finance:
U.S. RMBS	—		(56)		10		(46)
Other structured finance	36		(1)		(2)		33
Structured finance	36		(57)		8		(13)
Total	$	447	$	(34)	$	(107)	$	306


	Third Quarter 2023
Sector	Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of June 30, 2023		Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)		Net (Paid) Recovered Losses (1)		Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of September 30, 2023
	(in millions)
Public finance:
U.S. public finance	$	433	$	135	$	(169)	$	399
Non-U.S. public finance	10		(1)		—		9
Public finance	443		134		(169)		408
Structured finance:
U.S. RMBS	73		(48)		13		38
Other structured finance	44		1		(1)		44
Structured finance	117		(47)		12		82
Total	$	560	$	87	$	(157)	$	490


	Nine Months 2024
Sector	Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of December 31, 2023		Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)		Net (Paid) Recovered Losses (1)		Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of September 30, 2024
	(in millions)
Public finance:
U.S. public finance	$	398	$	(14)	$	(146)	$	238
Non-U.S. public finance	20		63		(2)		81
Public finance	418		49		(148)		319
Structured finance:
U.S. RMBS	43		(69)		(20)		(46)
Other structured finance	44		—		(11)		33
Structured finance	87		(69)		(31)		(13)
Total	$	505	$	(20)	$	(179)	$	306


	Nine Months 2023
Sector	Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of December 31, 2022		Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)		Net (Paid) Recovered Losses (1)		Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of September 30, 2023
	(in millions)
Public finance:
U.S. public finance	$	403	$	193	$	(197)	$	399
Non-U.S. public finance	9		—		—		9
Public finance	412		193		(197)		408
Structured finance:
U.S. RMBS	66		(52)		24		38
Other structured finance	44		6		(6)		44
Structured finance	110		(46)		18		82
Total	$	522	$	147	$	(179)	$	490

The tables above include (i) net LAE paid of $5 million, $9 million, $25 million and $17 million for third quarter 2024, third quarter 2023, nine months 2024 and nine months 2023, respectively, and (ii) net expected LAE to be paid of $16 million as of September 30, 2024 and $22 million as of December 31, 2023, respectively.

The largest components of the public finance net expected losses to be paid (recovered), based on the probability weighting of its scenarios, relate to certain Puerto Rico, healthcare and U.K. regulated utilities exposures. See Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, for a discussion of Puerto Rico exposures, and Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles, for a discussion of the Puerto Rico Trusts.

Certain BIG healthcare exposures are experiencing rising labor costs due to competition for labor and shortages in certain markets. Additionally, inflation has increased the cost of medical supplies, medical equipment, and pharmacy products, while hospitals with large Medicaid and Medicare payor mixes have not seen reimbursement levels keep pace with rising costs. The combined revenue and expense challenges have led to cash flow and liquidity stress in certain transactions. In addition, certain credits are struggling to make necessary capital expenditures and improvements to facilities.

The Company’s net expected losses to be paid (recovered) incorporate management’s probability weighted estimates of all possible scenarios. Economic loss development for public finance transactions in third quarter 2024 and nine months 2024 was primarily attributable to certain U.K. regulated utilities and Puerto Rico exposures, offset in part by improvements in certain healthcare exposures.

The Company projects losses on its insured U.S. RMBS on a transaction-by-transaction basis by projecting the performance of the underlying pool of mortgages over time and then applying the structural features (e.g., payment priorities and tranching) of the RMBS and any expected representation and warranty recoveries/payables to the projected performance of the collateral over time. The resulting projected claim payments or reimbursements are then discounted using risk-free rates.

Each period the Company reviews the assumptions it uses to make RMBS loss projections with consideration of updates on the performance of its insured transactions (including early-stage delinquencies, late-stage delinquencies and loss severity) as well as the residential property market and economy in general. To the extent it observes changes, it makes a judgment as to whether those changes are normal fluctuations or part of a more prolonged trend. The assumptions that the Company uses to project RMBS losses are shown in the sections below.

The majority of projected losses in first lien U.S. RMBS transactions are expected to come from non-performing mortgage loans (those that are or have recently been two or more payments behind, have been modified, are in foreclosure, or have been foreclosed upon). Changes in the amount of non-performing loans from the amount projected in the previous period are one of the primary drivers of loss projections in this portfolio. Collateral losses are projected to be offset by recoveries on

deferred principal balances. In order to project the number of defaults arising from these delinquent and foreclosed loans, the Company applies a liquidation rate assumption to loans in each of various non-performing categories. The Company arrived at its liquidation rates based on data purchased from a third-party provider and assumptions about how delays in the foreclosure process and loan modifications may ultimately affect the rate at which loans are liquidated. Each quarter the Company reviews recent data and (if necessary) adjusts its liquidation rates based on its observations. The following table shows liquidation assumptions for various non-performing and re-performing categories.


	As of September 30, 2024				As of December 31, 2023
	Range (1)				Range (1)
Current but recently delinquent	20%				20%
30 – 59 Days Delinquent	30	%	–	40%	30	%	–	35%
60 – 89 Days Delinquent	35	%	–	40%	40	%	–	45%
90+ Days Delinquent	35	%	–	45%	45	%	–	60%
Bankruptcy	40	%	–	50%	40	%	–	50%
Foreclosure	40	%	–	50%	55	%	–	65%
Real Estate Owned	100%				100%

While the Company uses the liquidation rates above to project defaults of non-performing loans (including current loans that were recently modified or delinquent), it projects defaults on presently current loans by applying a conditional default rate (CDR) curve. The start of that CDR curve is based on the defaults the Company projects will emerge from currently nonperforming, recently nonperforming and modified loans. The total amount of expected defaults from the non-performing loans is translated into a constant CDR (i.e., the CDR plateau), which, if applied for each of the next 36 months, results in the projection of the defaults that are expected to emerge from the various delinquency categories. The CDR thus calculated individually on the delinquent collateral pool for each RMBS is then used as the starting point for the CDR curve used to project defaults of the presently performing loans.

In the most heavily weighted scenario (the base scenario), after the 36-month CDR plateau period, each transaction’s CDR is projected to improve over 12 months to a final CDR of 5% of the CDR plateau. In the base scenario, the Company assumes the final CDR will be reached one year after the 36-month CDR plateau period. Under the Company’s methodology, defaults projected to occur in the first 36 months represent defaults that can be attributed to loans that were recently modified or delinquent, or that are currently delinquent or in foreclosure, while the defaults projected to occur using the projected CDR trend after the first 36-month period represent defaults attributable to borrowers that are currently performing or are projected to re-perform.

Another important driver of loss projections is loss severity, which is the amount of loss the transaction incurs on a loan after the application of net proceeds from the disposal of the underlying property. The Company assumes in the base scenario that recent (still historically elevated) loss severities will improve after loans with accumulated delinquencies and foreclosure cost are liquidated. The Company is assuming in the base scenario that recent severity levels generally will continue for another 18 months. The Company determines its initial loss severity based on recent experience. Each quarter, the Company reviews available data and (if necessary) adjusts its severities based on its observations. The Company then assumes that loss severities begin returning to levels consistent with underwriting assumptions beginning after the initial 18-month period, trending to 40% in the base scenario over 2.5 years.

The Company incorporates a recovery assumption into its loss modeling to reflect observed trends in recoveries of deferred principal balances of modified first lien loans that had been previously written off. For transactions where the Company has detailed loan information, the Company assumes that a percentage of the deferred loan balances will eventually be recovered upon sale of the collateral or refinancing of the loans. In third quarter 2024, due to observed trends and high levels of home equity, the Company increased its scenario-based recovery assumptions such that the weighted average recovery percentage increased from 30% to approximately 50%. The effect of these updated assumptions on expected losses was a benefit of $15 million.

The rate at which the principal amount of loans is voluntarily prepaid may impact both the amount of losses projected (since that amount is a function of the CDR, the loss severity and the loan balance over time) as well as the amount of excess spread (the amount by which the interest paid by the borrowers on the underlying loan exceeds the amount of interest owed on the insured obligations). The assumption for the voluntary conditional prepayment rate (CPR) follows a pattern similar to that of the CDR. The current level of voluntary prepayments is assumed to continue for the plateau period before gradually increasing over 12 months to the final CPR, which is assumed to be 15% in the base scenario. For transactions where the initial CPR is higher than the final CPR, the initial CPR is held constant and the final CPR is not used. These CPR assumptions are the same as those the Company used for December 31, 2023.

Certain transactions benefit from excess spread when they are supported by large portions of fixed rate assets (either originally fixed or modified to be fixed) but have insured floating rate debt linked to the Secured Overnight Finance Rate (SOFR). An increase in projected SOFR decreases excess spread, while lower SOFR projections result in higher excess spread.

In estimating expected losses, the Company modeled and probability weighted sensitivities for first lien U.S. RMBS transactions by varying its assumptions of how fast a recovery is expected to occur. One of the variables used to model sensitivities was how quickly the CDR returned to its modeled equilibrium, which was defined as 5% of the CDR plateau. The Company also stressed CPR and the speed of recovery of loss severity rates. The Company probability weighted a total of five scenarios as of September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023.

The Company used a similar approach to establish its scenarios as of September 30, 2024 as it used as of December 31, 2023, increasing and decreasing the periods and levels of stress from those used in the base scenario. In the Company’s most stressful scenario where 20% of deferred principal balances are assumed to be recovered, loss severities experience stress for nine years and the initial ramp-down of the CDR was assumed to occur over 16 months, expected loss to be paid would increase from current projections by approximately $33 million for all first lien U.S. RMBS transactions. In the Company’s least stressful scenario where 80% of deferred principal balances are assumed to be recovered, the CDR plateau was six months shorter (30 months, effectively assuming that liquidation rates would improve) and the CDR recovery was more pronounced (including an initial ramp-down of the CDR over eight months), expected loss to be paid would decrease from current projections by approximately $31 million for all first lien U.S. RMBS transactions.

Second lien U.S. RMBS transactions include both home equity lines of credit (HELOC) and closed end second lien mortgages. The Company believes the primary variable affecting its expected losses in second lien U.S. RMBS transactions is the amount and timing of future losses or recoveries in the collateral pool supporting the transactions (including recoveries from previously charged-off loans). Expected losses are also a function of the structure of the transaction, the prepayment speeds of the collateral, the interest rate environment and assumptions about loss severity.

The Company estimates the amount of loans that will default over the next several years by first calculating expected liquidation rates for delinquent loans, and applying liquidation rates to currently delinquent loans in order to arrive at an expected dollar amount of defaults from currently delinquent collateral (plateau period defaults).

HELOC loans generally permit the borrower to pay only interest for an initial period (often ten years) and, after that period, require the borrower to make both the monthly interest payment and a monthly principal payment. This causes the borrower's total monthly payment to increase, sometimes substantially, at the end of the initial interest-only period. A substantial number of loans in the Company’s insured transactions had been modified to extend the interest-only period to 15 years. The majority of the modified loans have reset to full amortization.

When a second lien loan defaults, there is generally a low recovery. The Company assumed, as of September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, that it will generally recover 2% of future defaulting collateral at the time of charge-off, with additional amounts of post charge-off recoveries projected to come in over time. A second lien on the borrower’s home may be retained in the Company’s second lien transactions after the loan is charged off and the loss applied to the transaction, particularly in cases where the holder of the first lien has not foreclosed. If the second lien is retained and the value of the home increases, the servicer may be able to use the second lien to increase recoveries, either by arranging for the borrower to resume payments or by realizing value upon the sale of the underlying real estate. The Company evaluates its assumptions quarterly based on actual recoveries of charged-off loans observed from period to period and reasonable expectations of future recoveries. In instances where the Company is able to obtain information on the lien status of charged-off loans, it assumes there will be a certain level of future recoveries of the balance of the charged-off loans where the second lien is still intact. During third quarter 2024, due to observed trends and high levels of home equity, the Company updated its assumptions of such recoveries to reflect a base scenario, and a weighted average, recovery of 50%, up from 40%, which resulted in a benefit of $29 million. Such recoveries are assumed to be received evenly over the next five years.

The rate at which the principal amount of loans is prepaid may impact both the amount of losses projected as well as the amount of excess spread. In the base scenario, an average CPR (based on experience of the past year) is assumed to continue until the end of the plateau before gradually increasing to the final CPR over the same period the CDR decreases. The final CPR is assumed to be 15% for second lien U.S. RMBS transactions (in the base scenario), which is lower than the historical average but reflects the Company’s continued uncertainty about the projected performance of the borrowers in these transactions. For transactions where the initial CPR is higher than the final CPR, the initial CPR is held constant and the final CPR is not used. This pattern is consistent with how the Company modeled the CPR as of December 31, 2023. To the extent that prepayments differ from projected levels, the Company’s projected excess spread and losses could materially change.

In estimating expected losses, the Company modeled and probability weighted five scenarios, each with a different CDR curve applicable to the period preceding the return to the long-term steady state CDR. The Company believes that the level of the elevated CDR and the length of time it will persist, the ultimate prepayment rate and recoveries for charged-off loans are the primary drivers of the amount of losses the collateral will likely suffer.


	As of September 30, 2024					As of December 31, 2023
	Range				Weighted Average	Range				Weighted Average
Plateau CDR	0.4	%	-	5.0%	2.3%	0.0	%	-	9.3%	2.6%
Final CDR	0.0	%	-	0.2%	0.1%	0.0	%	-	0.5%	0.1%
Liquidation rates:
Current but recently delinquent	20%					20%
30 – 59 Days Delinquent	30					30
60 – 89 Days Delinquent	30					40
90+ Days Delinquent	40					60
Bankruptcy	55					55
Foreclosure	40					55
Real Estate Owned	100					100
Loss severity on future defaults	98%					98%
Projected future recoveries on previously charged-off loans	50%					40%

The Company used a similar approach to establish its scenarios as of September 30, 2024 as it used as of December 31, 2023. The Company modeled scenarios with a longer period of elevated defaults and others with a shorter period of elevated defaults as well as various levels of assumed recoveries. In the Company’s most stressful scenario, assuming 20% recoveries on charged-off loans, increasing the CDR plateau to 42 months and increasing the ramp-down by four months to 16 months (for a total stress period of 58 months) would decrease the expected recovery by approximately $81 million for HELOC transactions. On the other hand, in the Company’s least stressful scenario, assuming 80% recoveries on charged-off loans, reducing the CDR plateau to 30 months and decreasing the length of the CDR ramp-down to eight months (for a total stress period of 38 months) and lowering the ultimate prepayment rate to 10% would increase the expected recovery by approximately $82 million for HELOC transactions.

In the ordinary course of their respective businesses, certain of AGL’s subsidiaries are involved in litigation or other dispute resolution with third parties to recover insurance losses paid or return benefits received in prior periods or prevent or reduce losses in the future. The impact, if any, of these and other proceedings on the amount of recoveries the Company ultimately receives and losses it pays in the future is uncertain, and the impact of any one or more of these proceedings during any quarter or year could be material to the Company’s financial statements.