Variable Interest Entities

9 Months Ended

Sep. 30, 2019

Organization, Consolidation and Presentation of Financial Statements [Abstract]

Variable Interest Entities

Variable Interest Entities

The Company provides financial guaranties with respect to debt obligations of special purpose entities, including VIEs but does not act as the servicer or collateral manager for any VIE obligations guaranteed by its insurance subsidiaries. The transaction structure generally provides certain financial protections to the Company. This financial protection can take several forms, the most common of which are overcollateralization, first loss protection (or subordination) and excess spread. In the case of overcollateralization (i.e., the principal amount of the securitized assets exceeds the principal amount of the structured finance obligations guaranteed by the Company), the structure allows defaults of the securitized assets before a default is experienced on the structured finance obligation guaranteed by the Company. In the case of first loss, the Company's financial guaranty insurance policy only covers a senior layer of losses experienced by multiple obligations issued by the VIE. The first loss exposure with respect to the assets is either retained by the seller or sold off in the form of equity or mezzanine debt to other investors. In the case of excess spread, the financial assets contributed to VIEs generate interest income that are in excess of the interest payments on the debt issued by the VIE. Such excess spread is typically distributed through the transaction’s cash flow waterfall and may be used to create additional credit enhancement, applied to redeem debt issued by the VIE (thereby, creating additional overcollateralization), or distributed to equity or other investors in the transaction.

Assured Guaranty is not primarily liable for the debt obligations issued by the VIEs it insures and would only be required to make payments on those insured debt obligations in the event that the issuer of such debt obligations defaults on any principal or interest due and only for the amount of the shortfall. AGL’s and its subsidiaries’ creditors do not have any rights with regard to the collateral supporting the debt issued by the FG VIEs. Proceeds from sales, maturities, prepayments and interest from such underlying collateral may only be used to pay debt service on FG VIEs’ liabilities. Net fair value gains and losses on FG VIEs are expected to reverse to zero at maturity of the FG VIEs’ debt, except for net premiums received and net claims paid by Assured Guaranty under the financial guaranty insurance contract. The Company’s estimate of expected loss to be paid for FG VIEs is included in Note 4, Expected Loss to be Paid.

As part of the terms of its financial guaranty contracts, the Company, under its insurance contract, obtains certain protective rights with respect to the VIE that give the Company additional controls over a VIE. These protective rights are triggered by the occurrence of certain events, such as failure to be in compliance with a covenant due to poor deal performance or a deterioration in a servicer or collateral manager's financial condition. At deal inception, the Company typically is not deemed to control a VIE; however, once a trigger event occurs, the Company's control of the VIE typically increases. The Company continuously evaluates its power to direct the activities that most significantly impact the economic performance of VIEs that have debt obligations insured by the Company and, accordingly, where the Company is obligated to absorb VIE losses or receive benefits that could potentially be significant to the VIE. The Company is deemed to be the control party for certain VIEs under GAAP, typically when its protective rights give it the power to both terminate and replace the deal servicer, which are characteristics specific to the Company's financial guaranty contracts. If the protective rights that could make the

Company the control party have not been triggered, then the VIE is not consolidated. If the Company is deemed to no longer have those protective rights, the VIE is deconsolidated.

Consolidated FG VIEs

As of September 30, 2019 and December 31, 2018, the Company consolidated 28 and 31 FG VIEs, respectively. During Nine Months 2019, two FG VIEs were deconsolidated, two FG VIEs matured and one FG VIE was consolidated. During Nine Months 2018, one FG VIE was deconsolidated. There were no new consolidations for Nine Months 2018.

The change in the ISCR of the FG VIEs’ assets held as of the end of the reporting period that was recorded in the condensed consolidated statements of operations for Third Quarter 2019 and 2018 were gains of $7 million and $1 million, respectively, and $42 million and $4 million for Nine Months 2019 and 2018, respectively. To calculate ISCR, the change in the fair value of the FG VIEs’ assets is allocated between changes that are due to ISCR and changes due to other factors, including interest rates. The ISCR amount is determined by using expected cash flows at the original date of consolidation discounted at the effective yield less current expected cash flows discounted at that same original effective yield.

	As of September 30, 2019		As of December 31, 2018
	(in millions)
Excess of unpaid principal over fair value of:
FG VIEs’ assets	$	279	$	350
FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse	21		48
FG VIEs’ liabilities without recourse	19		28
Unpaid principal balance for FG VIEs’ assets that were 90 days or more past due	61		71
Unpaid principal for FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse (1)	409		565

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(1) FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse will mature at various dates ranging from 2019 to 2038.

The table below shows the carrying value of the consolidated FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities in the condensed consolidated financial statements, segregated by the types of assets that collateralize the respective debt obligations for FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse.

Consolidated FG VIEs

By Type of Collateral

	As of September 30, 2019				As of December 31, 2018
	Assets		Liabilities		Assets		Liabilities
	(in millions)
With recourse:
U.S. RMBS first lien	$	289	$	314	$	299	$	326
U.S. RMBS second lien	75		74		115		137
Manufactured housing	—		—		53		54
Total with recourse	364		388		467		517
Without recourse	105		105		102		102
Total	$	469	$	493	$	569	$	619

The effect of consolidating FG VIEs includes (i) changes in fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities, (ii) the elimination of premiums and losses related to the AGC and AGM FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse and (iii) the elimination of investment balances related to the Company’s purchase of AGC and AGM insured FG VIEs’ debt. Upon consolidation of a FG VIE, the related insurance and, if applicable, the related investment balances, are considered intercompany transactions and therefore eliminated. Such eliminations are included in the table below to present the full effect of consolidating FG VIEs.

Effect of Consolidating FG VIEs 

	Third Quarter						Nine Months
	2019			2018			2019			2018
	(in millions)
Net earned premiums	$	(2	)	$	(3	)	$	(16	)	$	(9	)
Net investment income	(1		)	(1		)	(3		)	(3		)
Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs (1)	4			5			42			11
Loss and LAE	(3		)	(3		)	(18		)	—
Effect on income before tax	(2		)	(2		)	5			(1		)
Less: Tax provision (benefit)	—			—			1			—
Effect on net income (loss)	$	(2	)	$	(2	)	$	4		$	(1	)
Effect on OCI	$	1		$	(2	)	$	(1	)	$	—
Effect on cash flows from operating activities	$	1		$	1		$	—		$	7

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(1) See condensed consolidated statements of comprehensive income and Note 14, Shareholders' Equity, for information on changes in fair value of the FG VIEs’ liabilities with recourse that are attributable to changes in the Company's own credit risk.

The consolidation of FG VIEs increased shareholders' equity by $4 million as of September 30, 2019 and $1 million as of December 31, 2018.

The primary driver of the gain during Third Quarter 2019 is due to price appreciation on FG VIEs assets. The primary driver of the gain during Nine Months 2019 was attributable to higher recoveries on second lien U.S. RMBS FG VIEs' assets. The primary driver of the gain during Third Quarter 2018 and Nine Months 2018 was improvement in the underlying collateral of the FG VIEs' assets.

Other Consolidated VIEs

In certain instances where the Company consolidates a VIE that was established as part of a loss mitigation negotiated settlement that results in the termination of the original insured financial guaranty insurance or credit derivative contract, the Company classifies the assets and liabilities of those VIEs in the line items that most accurately reflect the nature of the items, as opposed to within the FG VIEs’ assets and FG VIEs’ liabilities. The largest of these VIEs had assets of $91 million and liabilities of $9 million as of September 30, 2019, and assets of $87 million and liabilities of $21 million as of December 31, 2018, primarily recorded in the investment portfolio and credit derivative liabilities on the condensed consolidated balance sheets.

Non-Consolidated VIEs

As described in Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, the Company monitors all policies in the insured portfolio. Of the approximately 18 thousand policies monitored as of September 30, 2019, approximately 15 thousand policies are not within the scope of Accounting Standards Codification 810 because these financial guaranties relate to the debt obligations of governmental organizations or financing entities established by a governmental organization. The majority of the remaining policies involve transactions where the Company is not deemed to currently have control over the FG VIEs’ most significant activities. As of September 30, 2019 and December 31, 2018, the Company identified 96 and 110 policies, respectively, that contain provisions and experienced events that may trigger consolidation. Based on management’s assessment of these potential triggers or events, the Company consolidated 28 and 31 FG VIEs as of September 30, 2019 and December 31, 2018, respectively. The Company’s exposure provided through its financial guaranties with respect to debt obligations of FG VIEs is included within net par outstanding in Note 3, Outstanding Exposure.