EX-99.2 3 agl2q19supplement.htm AGL FINANCIAL SUPPLEMENT Exhibit


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Assured Guaranty Ltd.
June 30, 2019
Financial Supplement
Table of Contents
 
 
Page
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

This financial supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGL and, together with its subsidiaries, Assured Guaranty or the Company) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2018 and its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly periods ended March 31, 2019 and June 30, 2019.

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward Looking Statements:

Any forward looking statements made in this supplement reflect the current views of Assured Guaranty with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. Assured Guaranty's forward looking statements could be affected by many events. These events include (1) reduction in the amount of available insurance opportunities and/or in the demand for Assured Guaranty's insurance; (2) rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade, a change in outlook, the placement of ratings on watch for downgrade, or a change in rating criteria, at any time, of AGL or any of its subsidiaries, and/or of any securities AGL or any of its subsidiaries have issued, and/or of transactions that AGL’s subsidiaries have insured; (3) developments in the world’s financial and capital markets that adversely affect obligors’ payment rates or Assured Guaranty’s loss experience; (4) the possibility that budget or pension shortfalls or other factors will result in credit losses or impairments on obligations of state, territorial and local governments and their related authorities and public corporations that Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures; (5) the failure of Assured Guaranty to realize loss recoveries that are assumed in its expected loss estimates; (6) increased competition, including from new entrants into the financial guaranty industry; (7) rating agency action on obligors, including sovereign debtors, resulting in a reduction in the value of securities in Assured Guaranty’s investment portfolio and in collateral posted by and to Assured Guaranty; (8) the inability of Assured Guaranty to access external sources of capital on acceptable terms; (9) changes in the world’s credit markets, segments thereof, interest rates or general economic conditions; (10) the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of Assured Guaranty’s assets and liabilities subject to mark-to-market, including certain of its investments, most of its contracts written in credit default swap form, and variable interest entities; (11) changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; (12) changes in applicable laws or regulations, including insurance, bankruptcy and tax laws, or other governmental actions; (13) the impact of changes in the world’s economy and credit and currency markets and in applicable laws or regulations relating to the decision of the United Kingdom to exit the European Union; (14) the possibility that Assured Guaranty's planned acquisition (BlueMountain Acquisition) of all of the outstanding equity interests in BlueMountain Capital Management, LLC (BlueMountain) and its associated entities fails to close or is delayed due to the failure to fulfill or waive closing conditions, including the receipt of necessary regulatory approvals and client consents, or fails to close or is delayed for other reasons; (15) the impact of the announcement of Assured Guaranty's planned BlueMountain Acquisition on the Company and its relationships with its investors, regulators, rating agencies, employees and the obligors it insures and on the business of BlueMountain and its relationships with its clients and employees; (16) the possibility that regulators, clients of BlueMountain or others will impose conditions on their approvals or consents of the planned BlueMountain Acquisition or not provide approvals or consents Assured Guaranty anticipated receiving and receipt of which is not a condition to closing; (17) the failure of Assured Guaranty to successfully integrate the business of BlueMountain after closing; (18) the possibility that acquisitions or alternative investments made by Assured Guaranty, including its anticipated BlueMountain Acquisition, do not result in the benefits anticipated or subject Assured Guaranty to unanticipated consequences; (19) difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty’s business strategy; (20) loss of key personnel; (21) the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; (22) natural or man-made catastrophes; (23) other risk factors identified in AGL's filings with the SEC; (24) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time and; (25) management’s response to these factors. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. Assured Guaranty undertakes no obligation to update publicly or review any forward looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by law.




Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
 
Three Months Ended
 
Six Months Ended
 
June 30,
 
June 30,
 
2019
 
2018
 
2019

2018
Net income (loss)
$
142


$
75

 
$
196

 
$
272

Non-GAAP operating income(1)
141


74

 
227

 
229

Gain (loss) related to the effect of consolidating financial guaranty variable interest entities (FG VIE consolidation) (net of tax provision (benefit) of $1, $(1), $1 and $0) included in non-GAAP operating income
6


(4
)
 
6

 
1

 



 
 
 
 
Net income (loss) per diluted share
$
1.39


$
0.67

 
$
1.90

 
$
2.37

Non-GAAP operating income per diluted share (1)
1.38


0.66

 
2.20

 
1.99

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating income per diluted share
0.05


(0.03
)
 
0.06

 
0.01

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Weighted average shares outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Basic shares outstanding
101.2

 
111.7

 
102.1

 
113.4

Diluted shares outstanding (2)
101.9

 
112.9

 
103.0

 
114.8

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Effective tax rate on net income
21.9
%
 
13.2
 %
 
18.4
%
 
10.4
%
Effective tax rate on non-GAAP operating income(3)
21.0
%
 
6.6
 %
 
18.2
%
 
8.7
%
Effect of FG VIE consolidation included in effective tax rate on non-GAAP operating income
%
 
(0.8
)%
 
0.1
%
 
0.1
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Return on equity (ROE) calculations (4):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GAAP ROE
8.5
%
 
4.5
 %
 
5.9
%
 
8.1
%
Non-GAAP operating ROE (1)
8.9
%
 
4.6
 %
 
7.1
%
 
7.1
%
Effect of FG VIE consolidation on non-GAAP operating ROE
0.3
%
 
(0.2
)%
 
0.1
%
 
0.1
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
New business:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross written premiums (GWP)
$
51


$
393

 
$
90

 
$
466

Present value of new business production (PVP) (1)   
54


454

 
96

 
515

Gross par written
4,183


14,571

 
6,890

 
16,773

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
As of
 
 
 
 
 
June 30, 2019
 
December 31, 2018
Shareholders' equity
 
 
 
 
$
6,722

 
$
6,555

Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity (1)
 
 
 
 
6,335

 
6,342

Non-GAAP adjusted book value (1)
 
 
 
 
8,849

 
8,922

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity
 
 
 
 
12

 
3

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP adjusted book value
 
 
 
 
(2
)
 
(15
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shares outstanding at the end of period
 
 
 
 
99.8

 
103.7

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity per share
 
 
 
 
$
67.35

 
$
63.23

Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity per share (1)
 
 
 
 
63.48

 
61.17

Non-GAAP adjusted book value per share (1)
 
 
 
 
88.67

 
86.06

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity
 
 
 
 
0.12

 
0.03

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP adjusted book value
 
 
 
 
(0.02
)
 
(0.15
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Financial guaranty net debt service outstanding
 
 
 
 
$
361,999

 
$
371,586

Financial guaranty net par outstanding
 
 
 
 
235,367

 
241,802

Claims-paying resources (5)
 
 
 
 
11,457

 
11,815

1)
Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.
2)
Non-GAAP diluted shares outstanding were the same as diluted shares calculated in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP) since both net income and non-GAAP operating income were positive for all periods.
3)
Represents the ratio of non-GAAP operating provision for income taxes to non-GAAP operating income before income taxes.
4)
Quarterly ROE calculations represent annualized returns. See page 7 for additional information on calculation.
5)
See page 9 for additional detail on claims-paying resources.

1



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
 
Three Months Ended
 
Six Months Ended
 
June 30,
 
June 30,
 
2019
 
2018
 
2019

2018
Effect of refundings and terminations on GAAP measures:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums, pre-tax
$
20

 
$
39

 
$
46

 
$
91

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives, pre-tax

 
1

 

 
6

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income effect
15

 
32

 
34

 
77

Net income per diluted share
0.15

 
0.28

 
0.33

 
0.67

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Effect of refundings and terminations on non-GAAP measures:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Operating net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues(1), pre-tax
29

 
40

 
55

 
95

Non-GAAP operating income(1) effect
15

 
31

 
34

 
74

Non-GAAP operating income per diluted share (1)
0.15

 
0.27

 
0.33

 
0.65


1)
Condensed consolidated statement of operations items mentioned in this Financial Supplement that are described as operating (i.e. operating net earned premiums) are non-GAAP measures and represent components of non-GAAP operating income. Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.

2



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited)
(dollars in millions)

 
 
As of
 
 
June 30,
 
December 31,
 
 
2019
 
2018
Assets:
 
 
 
 
Investment portfolio:
 
 
 
 
Fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale, at fair value
 
$
9,574

 
$
10,089

Short-term investments, at fair value
 
1,159

 
729

Other invested assets
 
60

 
55

Total investment portfolio
 
10,793

 
10,873

 
 
 
 
 
Cash
 
190

 
104

Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable
 
866

 
904

Deferred acquisition costs
 
106

 
105

Salvage and subrogation recoverable
 
580

 
490

Financial guaranty variable interest entities' (FG VIEs') assets, at fair value
 
526

 
569

Other assets
 
520

 
558

Total assets
 
$
13,581

 
$
13,603

 
 
 
 
 
Liabilities and shareholders' equity:
 
 
 
 
Liabilities:
 
 
 
 
Unearned premium reserve
 
$
3,387

 
$
3,512

Loss and loss adjustment expense (LAE) reserve
 
1,102

 
1,177

Long-term debt
 
1,233

 
1,233

Credit derivative liabilities
 
224

 
209

FG VIEs' liabilities with recourse, at fair value
 
446

 
517

FG VIEs' liabilities without recourse, at fair value
 
105

 
102

Other liabilities
 
362

 
298

Total liabilities
 
6,859

 
7,048

 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity:
 
 
 
 
Common stock
 
1

 
1

Additional paid-in capital
 

 
86

Retained earnings
 
6,425

 
6,374

Accumulated other comprehensive income
 
295

 
93

Deferred equity compensation
 
1

 
1

Total shareholders' equity
 
6,722

 
6,555

Total liabilities and shareholders' equity
 
$
13,581

 
$
13,603





3



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Six Months Ended
 
 
June 30,
 
June 30,
 
 
2019
 
2018
 
2019
 
2018
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$
112


$
136

 
$
230


$
281

Net investment income
 
110


98

 
208


198

Net realized investment gains (losses)
 
8


(2
)
 
(4
)

(7
)
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
 
(8
)

48

 
(30
)

82

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
 
33


2

 
38


6

Foreign exchange gain (loss) on remeasurement
 
(14
)
 
(36
)
 
(3
)
 
(14
)
Other income (loss)
 
25


(26
)
 
22


(33
)
Total revenues
 
266

 
220

 
461

 
513

Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and LAE
 
(1
)

44

 
45


26

Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
 
4


4

 
10


9

Interest expense
 
22


24

 
45


48

Other operating expenses
 
60


62

 
124


127

Total expenses
 
85

 
134

 
224

 
210

Income (loss) before provision for income taxes and equity in net earnings of investees
 
181

 
86

 
237

 
303

Equity in net earnings of investees
 
1


1

 
3

 
1

Income (loss) before income taxes
 
182

 
87

 
240

 
304

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
 
40


12

 
44


32

Net income (loss)
 
$
142


$
75

 
$
196


$
272

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Earnings per share:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Basic
 
$
1.40

 
$
0.67

 
$
1.92

 
$
2.39

Diluted
 
$
1.39


$
0.67

 
$
1.90


$
2.37



4



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments and Effect of FG VIE Consolidation
(dollars in millions)

Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments and Effect of FG VIE Consolidation for the Three Months Ended June 30, 2019 and June 30, 2018

 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Three Months Ended
 
 
June 30, 2019
 
June 30, 2018
 
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments (1)
 
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation (2)
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments (1)
 
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation (2)
Adjustments to revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$

 
$
(11
)
 
$

 
$
(3
)
Net investment income
 

 
(1
)
 

 
(1
)
Net realized investment gains (losses)
 
8

 

 
(2
)
 

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
 
(12
)
 

 
43

 

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
 

 
33

 

 
2

Foreign exchange gain (loss) on remeasurement
 
(12
)
 

 
(34
)
 

Other income (loss)
 
19

 

 
(1
)
 

Total revenue adjustments
 
3

 
21

 
6

 
(2
)
Adjustments to expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss expense
 

 
14

 
(1
)
 
3

Total expense adjustments
 

 
14

 
(1
)
 
3

Pre-tax adjustments
 
3

 
7

 
7

 
(5
)
Tax effect of adjustments
 
2

 
1

 
6

 
(1
)
After-tax adjustments
 
$
1

 
$
6

 
$
1

 
$
(4
)


Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments and Effect of FG VIE Consolidation for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2019 and June 30, 2018

 
 
Six Months Ended
 
Six Months Ended
 
 
June 30, 2019
 
June 30, 2018
 
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments (1)
 
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation (2)
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments (1)
 
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation (2)
Adjustments to revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$

 
$
(14
)
 
$

 
$
(6
)
Net investment income
 

 
(2
)
 

 
(2
)
Net realized investment gains (losses)
 
(4
)
 

 
(7
)
 

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
 
(39
)
 

 
72

 

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
 

 
38

 

 
6

Foreign exchange gain (loss) on remeasurement
 
(3
)
 

 
(12
)
 

Other income (loss)
 
10

 

 
(2
)
 

Total revenue adjustments
 
(36
)
 
22

 
51

 
(2
)
Adjustments to expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss expense
 
1

 
15

 
(2
)
 
(3
)
Total expense adjustments
 
1

 
15

 
(2
)
 
(3
)
Pre-tax adjustments
 
(37
)
 
7

 
53

 
1

Tax effect of adjustments
 
(6
)
 
1

 
10

 

After-tax adjustments
 
$
(31
)
 
$
6

 
$
43

 
$
1


1)
The "Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments" column represents the amounts recorded in the condensed consolidated statements of operations that the Company removes to arrive at non-GAAP operating income. Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.

2)
The "Effect of FG VIE Consolidation" column represents the amounts included in the condensed consolidated statements of operations and non-GAAP operating income that the Company removes to arrive at the core financial measures that management uses in certain of its compensation calculations and its decision making process. Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.

5



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations (1 of 3)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

Non-GAAP Operating Income Reconciliation
 
Three Months Ended
 
Six Months Ended
 
 
June 30,
 
June 30,
 
 
2019
 
2018
 
2019
 
2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income (loss)
 
$
142

 
$
75

 
$
196

 
$
272

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 

 

Realized gains (losses) on investments
 
8


(2
)
 
(4
)

(7
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(12
)

44

 
(40
)

74

Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities (CCS) (1)
 
19


(1
)
 
10


(2
)
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves (1)
 
(12
)

(34
)
 
(3
)

(12
)
Total pre-tax adjustments
 
3

 
7

 
(37
)
 
53

Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments
 
(2
)

(6
)
 
6


(10
)
Non-GAAP operating income
 
$
141

 
$
74

 
$
227


$
229

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation (net of tax provision (benefit) of $1, $(1), $1 and $0) included in non-GAAP operating income
 
$
6


$
(4
)
 
$
6


$
1

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Per diluted share:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income (loss)
 
$
1.39

 
$
0.67

 
$
1.90

 
$
2.37

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
Realized gains (losses) on investments
 
0.08

 
(0.01
)
 
(0.04
)
 
(0.06
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(0.12
)
 
0.39

 
(0.39
)
 
0.65

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS (1)
 
0.19

 
(0.01
)
 
0.09

 
(0.02
)
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves (1)
 
(0.12
)
 
(0.30
)
 
(0.02
)
 
(0.11
)
Total pre-tax adjustments
 
0.03

 
0.07

 
(0.36
)
 
0.46

Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments
 
(0.02
)
 
(0.06
)
 
0.06


(0.08
)
Non-GAAP operating income
 
$
1.38

 
$
0.66

 
$
2.20

 
$
1.99

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating income per diluted share
 
$
0.05


$
(0.03
)
 
$
0.06


$
0.01


1) Included in other income (loss) in the condensed consolidated statements of operations.

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.

6



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations (2 of 3)
(dollars in millions)

ROE Reconciliation and Calculation
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
June 30,
 
March 31,
 
December 31,
 
June 30,
 
March 31,
 
December 31,
 
2019
 
2019
 
2018
 
2018
 
2018
 
2017
Shareholders' equity
$
6,722

 
$
6,669

 
$
6,555

 
$
6,634

 
$
6,784

 
$
6,839

Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity
6,335

 
6,341

 
6,342

 
6,423

 
6,592

 
6,521

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity
12

 
3

 
3

 
7

 
8

 
5

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Six Months Ended
 
 
 
 
 
June 30,
 
June 30,
 
 
 
 
 
2019
 
2018

2019

2018
Net income (loss)
 
 
 
 
$
142

 
$
75

 
$
196

 
$
272

Non-GAAP operating income
 
 
 
 
141

 
74

 
227

 
229

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating income
 
 
 
 
6

 
(4
)
 
6

 
1

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Average shareholders' equity
 
 
 
 
$
6,696

 
$
6,709

 
$
6,639

 
$
6,737

Average non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity
 
 
 
 
6,338

 
6,508

 
6,339

 
6,472

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in average non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity
 
 
 
 
8

 
8

 
8

 
6

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GAAP ROE (1)
 
 
 
 
8.5
%

4.5
 %
 
5.9
%
 
8.1
%
Non-GAAP operating ROE (1)
 
 
 
 
8.9
%

4.6
 %
 
7.1
%
 
7.1
%
Effect of FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating ROE
 
 
 
 
0.3
%

(0.2
)%
 
0.1
%
 
0.1
%

1)
Quarterly ROE calculations represent annualized returns.

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.


7



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations (3 of 3)
(dollars in millions)


 
 
As of
 
 
June 30,
 
March 31,
 
December 31,
 
June 30,
 
March 31,
 
December 31,
 
 
2019
 
2019
 
2018
 
2018
 
2018
 
2017
Reconciliation of shareholders' equity to non-GAAP adjusted book value:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity
 
$
6,722

 
$
6,669

 
$
6,555

 
$
6,634

 
$
6,784

 
$
6,839

Less pre-tax reconciling items:
 

 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(85
)
 
(73
)
 
(45
)
 
(72
)
 
(116
)
 
(146
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
84

 
65

 
74

 
58

 
58

 
60

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect
 
478

 
419

 
247

 
290

 
307

 
487

Less taxes
 
(90
)
 
(83
)
 
(63
)
 
(65
)
 
(57
)
 
(83
)
Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity
 
6,335


6,341

 
6,342

 
6,423


6,592

 
6,521

Pre-tax reconciling items:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Less: Deferred acquisition costs
 
106

 
104

 
105

 
102

 
100

 
101

Plus: Net present value of estimated net future revenue
 
196

 
199

 
204

 
217

 
140

 
146

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed
 
2,932

 
2,972

 
3,005

 
3,083

 
2,899

 
2,966

Plus taxes
 
(508
)
 
(515
)
 
(524
)
 
(542
)
 
(497
)
 
(512
)
Non-GAAP adjusted book value
 
$
8,849


$
8,893

 
$
8,922

 
$
9,079


$
9,034

 
$
9,020

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity (net of tax (provision) benefit of $(3), $(1), $(1) $(2), $(2) and $(2))
 
$
12

 
$
3

 
$
3

 
$
7

 
$
8

 
$
5

 
 


 
 
 


 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP adjusted book value (net of tax benefit of $1, $5, $4 $3, $3 and $3)
 
$
(2
)
 
$
(20
)
 
$
(15
)
 
$
(12
)
 
$
(12
)
 
$
(14
)

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.



8



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Claims-Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)
 
 
As of June 30, 2019
 
 
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
 
Assured Guaranty Corp.
 
Municipal Assurance Corp.
 
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (8)
 
Eliminations(3)
 
Consolidated
Claims-paying resources
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Policyholders' surplus
 
$
2,530

 
$
1,729

 
$
230

 
$
914

 
$
(406
)
 
$
4,997

Contingency reserve(1)
 
1,082

 
633

 
209

 

 
(209
)
 
1,715

Qualified statutory capital
 
3,612

 
2,362

 
439

 
914

 
(615
)
 
6,712

Unearned premium reserve and net deferred ceding commission income(1)
 
1,853

 
452

 
173

 
709

 
(288
)
 
2,899

Loss and LAE reserves (1)
 
313

 
284

 
(1
)
 
223

 
1

 
820

Total policyholders' surplus and reserves
 
5,778

 
3,098

 
611

 
1,846

 
(902
)
 
10,431

Present value of installment premium
 
186

 
128

 

 
132

 

 
446

CCS
 
200

 
200

 

 

 

 
400

Excess of loss reinsurance facility (2)
 
180

 
180

 
180

 

 
(360
)
 
180

Total claims-paying resources (including proportionate MAC ownership for AGM and AGC)
 
6,344

 
3,606

 
791

 
1,978

 
(1,262
)
 
11,457

Adjustment for MAC (4)
 
371

 
240

 

 

 
(611
)
 

Total claims-paying resources (excluding proportionate MAC ownership for AGM and AGC)
 
$
5,973

 
$
3,366

 
$
791

 
$
1,978

 
$
(651
)
 
$
11,457

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Statutory net exposure (5)                     
 
$
116,495

 
$
24,240

 
$
21,308

 
$
66,239

 
$
(343
)
 
$
227,939

Equity method adjustment (4)
 
12,934

 
8,374

 

 

 
(21,308
)
 

Adjusted statutory net exposure (1)
 
$
129,429

 
$
32,614

 
$
21,308

 
$
66,239

 
$
(21,651
)
 
$
227,939

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service outstanding (5) 
 
$
183,518

 
$
36,553

 
$
31,440

 
$
102,823

 
$
(474
)
 
$
353,860

Equity method adjustment (4)
 
19,084

 
12,356

 

 

 
(31,440
)
 

Adjusted net debt service outstanding (1)
 
$
202,602

 
$
48,909

 
$
31,440

 
$
102,823

 
$
(31,914
)
 
$
353,860

Ratios:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Adjusted net exposure to qualified statutory capital
 
36:1
 
14:1
 
49:1
 
72:1
 

 
34:1
Capital ratio (6)
 
56:1
 
21:1
 
72:1
 
112:1
 

 
53:1
Financial resources ratio (7)
 
32:1
 
14:1
 
40:1
 
52:1
 

 
31:1

1)
The numbers shown for Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. (AGM) and Assured Guaranty Corp. (AGC) have been adjusted to include their indirect share of Municipal Assurance Corp. (MAC). AGM and AGC own 60.7% and 39.3%, respectively, of the outstanding stock of Municipal Assurance Holdings Inc., which owns 100% of the outstanding common stock of MAC. AGM has been adjusted to include 100% share of its European insurance subsidiary. Amounts include financial guaranty insurance and credit derivatives.
2)
Represents the $180 million portion placed with an unaffiliated reinsurer of a $400 million aggregate excess-of-loss reinsurance facility for the benefit of AGC, AGM and MAC, which became effective January 1, 2018. The facility terminates on January 1, 2020, unless AGC, AGM and MAC choose to extend it.
3)
Eliminations are primarily for (i) intercompany surplus notes between AGM and AGC, and (ii) MAC amounts, whose proportionate share are included in AGM and AGC based on ownership percentages, and (iii) eliminations of intercompany deferred ceding commissions. Net exposure and net debt service outstanding eliminations relate to second-to-pay policies under which an Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary guarantees an obligation already insured by another Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary, and net exposure related to intercompany cessions from AGM and AGC to MAC.
4)
Represents adjustments for AGM's and AGC's interest and indirect ownership of MAC.
5)
Net exposure and net debt service outstanding are presented on a statutory basis.
6)
The capital ratio is calculated by dividing adjusted net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital.
7)
The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing adjusted net debt service outstanding by total claims-paying resources (including MAC adjustment for AGM and AGC).
8)
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) numbers represent the Company's estimate of United States (U.S.) statutory accounting practices prescribed or permitted by insurance regulatory authorities, except for contingency reserves.

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of changes in the presentation of net debt service and net par outstanding.


9



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
New Business Production
(dollars in millions)

Reconciliation of GWP to PVP for the Three Months Ended June 30, 2019 and June 30, 2018



Three Months Ended

Three Months Ended


June 30, 2019

June 30, 2018


Public Finance

Structured Finance



Public Finance

Structured Finance




U.S.

Non - U.S.

U.S. 

Non - U.S.

Total

U.S.

Non - U.S.

U.S.

Non - U.S.

Total
Total GWP

$
43


$
12


$
(4
)

$


$
51


$
170


$
55


$
158


$
10


$
393

Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments(1)

(1
)

12


(4
)



7


20


32


5


1


58

Upfront GWP

44








44


150


23


153


9


335

Plus: Installment premium PVP(2)



7


3




10


84


30


5




119

Total PVP

$
44


$
7


$
3


$


$
54


$
234


$
53


$
158


$
9


$
454






















Gross par written

$
3,657


$
299


$
227


$


$
4,183


$
10,675


$
3,345


$
393


$
158


$
14,571


Reconciliation of GWP to PVP for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2019 and June 30, 2018



Six Months Ended

Six Months Ended


June 30, 2019

June 30, 2018


Public Finance

Structured Finance



Public Finance

Structured Finance




U.S.

Non - U.S.

U.S. 

Non - U.S.

Total

U.S.

Non - U.S.

U.S.

Non - U.S.

Total
Total GWP

$
73


$
14


$
2


$
1


$
90


$
203


$
94


$
159


$
10


$
466

Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments(1)

(3
)

14


1




12


18


55


6


1


80

Upfront GWP

76




1


1


78


185


39


153


9


386

Plus: Installment premium PVP(2)



11


7




18


84


40


5




129

Total PVP

$
76


$
11


$
8


$
1


$
96


$
269


$
79


$
158


$
9


$
515






















Gross par written

$
5,673


$
475


$
721


$
21


$
6,890


$
12,679


$
3,532


$
404


$
158


$
16,773


1)
Includes present value of new business on installment policies discounted at the prescribed GAAP discount rates, GWP adjustments on existing installment policies due to changes in assumptions, any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts, and other GAAP adjustments.

2)
Includes PVP of credit derivatives assumed in the Syncora Guarantee Inc. (SGI) transaction in the second quarter of 2018.


Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.

10



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Gross Par Written
(dollars in millions)


Gross Par Written by Asset Type

 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Six Months Ended
 
 
June 30, 2019
 
June 30, 2019
 
 
Gross Par Written
 
Avg. Internal Rating
 
Gross Par Written
 
Avg. Internal Rating
Sector:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
General obligation
 
$
2,040

 
A-
 
$
3,157

 
A-
Tax backed
 
570

 
A-
 
903

 
A-
Transportation
 
384

 
BBB+
 
599

 
A-
Municipal utilities
 
464

 
A-
 
572

 
A-
Healthcare
 
95

 
BBB+
 
190

 
BBB+
Higher education
 
45

 
BBB
 
123

 
A-
Housing revenue
 

 
--
 
62

 
BBB-
Infrastructure finance
 
17

 
A
 
25

 
BBB+
Other
 
42

 
A
 
42

 
A
Total U.S. public finance
 
3,657

 
A-
 
5,673

 
A-
Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Infrastructure finance
 
299

 
BBB+
 
299

 
BBB+
Regulated utilities
 

 
--
 
176

 
A-
Total non-U.S. public finance
 
299

 
BBB+
 
475

 
BBB+
Total public finance
 
$
3,956

 
A-
 
$
6,148

 
A-
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Pooled corporate obligations
 
$
208

 
A
 
$
465

 
A+
Life insurance transactions
 

 
--
 
200

 
AA
Structured credit
 
15

 
BBB
 
30

 
BBB
Other
 
4

 
A-
 
26

 
A-
Total U.S. structured finance
 
227

 
A
 
721

 
A+
Non-U.S. structured finance
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commercial receivable
 

 
--
 
21

 
BBB
Total non-U.S. structured finance
 

 
--
 
21

 
BBB
Total structured finance
 
$
227

 
A
 
$
742

 
A+
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total gross par written
 
$
4,183

 
A-
 
$
6,890

 
A-


Please refer to the Glossary for a description of internal ratings and sectors.




11



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
New Business Production by Quarter
(dollars in millions)


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Six Months
 
 
1Q-18
 
2Q-18
 
3Q-18
 
4Q-18
 
1Q-19
 
2Q-19
 
2018
 
2019
PVP:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
35

 
$
234

 
$
33

 
$
89

 
$
32

 
$
44

 
$
269

 
$
76

Public finance - non-U.S.
 
26

 
53

 
12

 
3

 
4

 
7

 
79

 
11

Structured finance - U.S.
 

 
158

 
7

 
1

 
5

 
3

 
158

 
8

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 

 
9

 

 
3

 
1

 

 
9

 
1

Total PVP
 
$
61

 
$
454

 
$
52

 
$
96

 
$
42

 
$
54

 
$
515

 
$
96

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reconciliation of GWP to PVP:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total GWP
 
$
73

 
$
393

 
$
50

 
$
96

 
$
39

 
$
51

 
$
466

 
$
90

Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments
 
22

 
58

 
12

 
27

 
5

 
7

 
80

 
12

Upfront GWP
 
51

 
335

 
38

 
69

 
34

 
44

 
386

 
78

Plus: Installment premium PVP
 
10

 
119

 
14

 
27

 
8

 
10

 
129

 
18

Total PVP
 
$
61

 
$
454

 
$
52

 
$
96

 
$
42

 
$
54

 
$
515

 
$
96

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross par written:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
2,004

 
$
10,675

 
$
2,338

 
$
4,555

 
$
2,016

 
$
3,657

 
$
12,679

 
$
5,673

Public finance - non-U.S.
 
187

 
3,345

 
189

 
96

 
176

 
299

 
3,532

 
475

Structured finance - U.S.
 
11

 
393

 
473

 
25

 
494

 
227

 
404

 
721

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 

 
158

 
1

 
174

 
21

 

 
158

 
21

Total
 
$
2,202

 
$
14,571

 
$
3,001

 
$
4,850

 
$
2,707

 
$
4,183

 
$
16,773

 
$
6,890



Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.


12



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Investment Portfolio and Cash
As of June 30, 2019
(dollars in millions)
                                           
 
 
Amortized Cost
 
Pre-Tax Book Yield
 
After-Tax Book Yield
 
Fair Value
 
Annualized Investment Income (1)
Investment portfolio:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Obligations of states and political subdivisions(2)(4)
 
$
4,370

 
3.66
%
 
3.39
%
 
$
4,683

 
$
160

U.S. government and agencies
 
154

 
3.95

 
3.39

 
165

 
6

Corporate securities (4)
 
2,212

 
3.09

 
2.73

 
2,267

 
68

Mortgage-backed securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) (3)(4)
 
914

 
4.53

 
3.84

 
938

 
41

Commercial mortgage-backed securities
 
478

 
3.37

 
2.92

 
495

 
16

Asset-backed securities (4)
 
746

 
6.29

 
5.08

 
779

 
47

Non-U.S. government securities
 
263

 
1.37

 
1.37

 
247

 
4

Total fixed maturity securities
 
9,137

 
3.75

 
3.33

 
9,574

 
342

Short-term investments
 
1,159

 
2.08

 
1.73

 
1,159

 
24

Cash (5)
 
190

 

 

 
190

 

Total
 
$
10,486

 
3.56
%
 
3.15
%
 
$
10,923

 
$
366

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ratings (6):
 
Fair Value
 
% of Portfolio
 
 
 

 
 
U.S. government and agencies
 
$
165

 
1.7
%
 
 
 

 
 
AAA/Aaa
 
1,531

 
16.0

 
 
 
 
 
 
AA/Aa
 
4,224

 
44.1

 
 
 
 
 
 
A/A
 
2,014

 
21.0

 
 
 
 
 
 
BBB
 
640

 
6.7

 
 
 
 
 
 
Below-investment-grade (BIG) (7)
 
792

 
8.3

 
 
 
 
 
 
Not rated (8)
 
208

 
2.2

 
 
 
 
 
 
Total fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale
 
$
9,574

 
100.0
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Duration of fixed maturity securities and short-term investments (in years):
 
 
 
4.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Average ratings of fixed maturity securities and short-term investments
 
 
 
A+
 
 
 
 
 
 

1)
Represents annualized investment income based on amortized cost and pre-tax book yields.
2)
Includes obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by other financial guarantors. The underlying ratings of these bonds, after giving effect to the lower of the rating assigned by S&P Global Ratings, a division of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC (S&P) or Moody's Investors Service, Inc. (Moody's), average A. Includes fair value of $10 million insured by AGM.
3)
Includes fair value of $243 million in subprime RMBS, which has an average rating of BIG.
4)
Includes securities purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation or other risk management strategies.
5)
Cash is not included in the yield calculation.
6)
Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody's and S&P classifications except for bonds purchased for loss mitigation (loss mitigation securities) or other risk management strategies which use internal ratings classifications.
7)
Includes below investment grade securities that were purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation or other risk management strategies of $1,144 million in par with carrying value of $792 million.
8)
Includes closed lien senior bonds of Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation (COFINA) validated by the PROMESA Title III Court (COFINA Exchange Senior Bonds) with $152 million in initial par and $152 million fair value.



13



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Estimated Net Exposure Amortization(1) and Estimated Future Financial Guaranty Net Premium
and Credit Derivative Revenues
(dollars in millions)

 
 
 
 
 
 
Financial Guaranty Insurance (2)
 
 
 
 
Estimated Net Debt Service Amortization
 
Estimated Ending Net Debt Service Outstanding
 
Expected PV Net Earned Premiums
 
Accretion of Discount
 
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation on Expected PV Net Earned Premiums and Accretion of Discount
 
Future Credit Derivative Revenues (3)
2019 (as of June 30)
 
 
 
$
361,999

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2019 Q3
 
$
9,125

 
352,874

 
$
82

 
$
4

 
$
(1
)
 
$
4

2019 Q4
 
6,599

 
346,275

 
80

 
4

 
(1
)
 
4

2020
 
23,021

 
323,254

 
304

 
16

 
(5
)
 
13

2021
 
23,224

 
300,030

 
277

 
15

 
(4
)
 
11

2022
 
20,853

 
279,177

 
251

 
14

 
(4
)
 
10

2023
 
18,013

 
261,164

 
230

 
13

 
(3
)
 
10

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2019-2023
 
100,835

 
261,164

 
1,224

 
66

 
(18
)
 
52

2024-2028
 
86,349

 
174,815

 
905

 
49

 
(14
)
 
44

2029-2033
 
69,429

 
105,386

 
615

 
28

 
(12
)
 
36

2034-2038
 
49,328

 
56,058

 
348

 
15

 
(9
)
 
28

After 2038
 
56,058

 

 
300

 
12

 

 
28

Total
 
$
361,999

 
 
 
$
3,392

 
$
170

 
$
(53
)
 
$
188


1)
Represents the future expected amortization of current debt service outstanding (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of June 30, 2019. Actual amortization differs from expected maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations, terminations and because of management's assumptions on structured finance amortization.

2)
See page 16, ‘‘Net Expected Loss to be Expensed.’’

3)
Represents a non-GAAP financial measure. Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.







14



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Expected Amortization of Net Par Outstanding
(dollars in millions)

Structured Finance
 
 
Estimated Net Par Amortization
 
 
 
 
U.S. and Non-U.S. Pooled Corporate
 
U.S. RMBS
 
Financial Products
 
Other Structured Finance
 
Total
 
Estimated Ending Net Par Outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2019 (as of June 30)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
$
10,342

2019 Q3
 
$
42

 
$
168

 
$
(10
)
 
$
134

 
$
334

 
10,008

2019 Q4
 
22

 
160

 
1

 
120

 
303

 
9,705

2020
 
121

 
589

 
7

 
494

 
1,211

 
8,494

2021
 
268

 
473

 
2

 
574

 
1,317

 
7,177

2022
 
203

 
465

 
20

 
493

 
1,181

 
5,996

2023
 
195

 
347

 
12

 
185

 
739

 
5,257

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

2019-2023
 
851

 
2,202

 
32

 
2,000

 
5,085

 
5,257

2024-2028
 
259

 
886

 
195

 
456

 
1,796

 
3,461

2029-2033
 
141

 
226

 
628

 
870

 
1,865

 
1,596

2034-2038
 
202

 
514

 
121

 
559

 
1,396

 
200

After 2038
 
79

 
7

 
26

 
88

 
200

 

Total structured finance
 
$
1,532

 
$
3,835

 
$
1,002

 
$
3,973

 
$
10,342

 


Public Finance
 
 
Estimated Net Par Amortization
 
Estimated Ending Net Par Outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
2019 (as of June 30)
 
 
 
$
225,025

2019 Q3
 
$
6,337

 
218,688

2019 Q4
 
3,532

 
215,156

2020
 
11,826

 
203,330

2021
 
12,521

 
190,809

2022
 
10,837

 
179,972

2023
 
8,917

 
171,055

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2019-2023
 
53,970

 
171,055

2024-2028
 
50,041

 
121,014

2029-2033
 
44,276

 
76,738

2034-2038
 
34,263

 
42,475

After 2038
 
42,475

 

Total public finance
 
$
225,025

 



Net par outstanding (end of period)
 
 
1Q-18
 
2Q-18
 
3Q-18
 
4Q-18
 
1Q-19
 
2Q-19
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
201,337

 
$
200,378

 
$
190,418

 
$
186,562

 
$
181,408

 
$
180,537

Public finance - non-U.S.
 
43,747

 
45,442

 
44,735

 
44,103

 
44,615

 
44,488

Structured finance - U.S.
 
10,681

 
10,749

 
10,611

 
9,944

 
10,337

 
9,549

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 
1,324

 
1,235

 
1,176

 
1,193

 
965

 
793

Net par outstanding
 
$
257,089

 
$
257,804

 
$
246,940

 
$
241,802

 
$
237,325

 
$
235,367



Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and of the various sectors.

15



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Net Expected Loss to be Expensed (1) 
As of June 30, 2019
(dollars in millions)


 
 
GAAP
 
 
 
2019 Q3
 
$
8

2019 Q4
 
9

2020
 
38

2021
 
35

2022
 
34

2023
 
35

2019-2023
 
159

2024-2028
 
148

2029-2033
 
99

2034-2038
 
45

After 2038
 
9

Total expected present value of net expected loss to be expensed(2)
 
460

Future accretion
 
30

Total expected future loss and LAE
 
$
490


1)
The present value of net expected loss to be paid is discounted using risk free rates ranging from 0.0% to 2.63% for U.S. dollar denominated obligations.

2)
Excludes $33 million related to FG VIEs, which are eliminated in consolidation.



16



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3)
(dollars in millions)


Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type

 
 
As of June 30, 2019
 
As of December 31, 2018
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Avg. Internal Rating
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Avg. Internal Rating
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
General obligation
 
$
76,793

 
A-
 
$
78,800

 
A-
Tax backed
 
39,045

 
A-
 
40,616

 
A-
Municipal utilities
 
27,319

 
A-
 
28,462

 
A-
Transportation
 
14,890

 
A-
 
15,197

 
A-
Healthcare
 
6,658

 
A-
 
6,750

 
A-
Higher education
 
6,230

 
A-
 
6,643

 
A-
Infrastructure finance
 
5,440

 
A-
 
5,489

 
A-
Housing revenue
 
1,392

 
BBB+
 
1,435

 
BBB+
Investor-owned utilities
 
813

 
A-
 
1,001

 
A-
Other public finance
 
1,957

 
A-
 
2,169

 
A-
Total U.S. public finance
 
180,537

 
A-
 
186,562

 
A-
Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Regulated utilities
 
18,433

 
BBB+
 
18,325

 
BBB+
Infrastructure finance
 
17,587

 
BBB
 
17,216

 
BBB
Pooled infrastructure
 
1,362

 
AAA
 
1,373

 
AAA
Other public finance
 
7,106

 
A
 
7,189

 
A
Total non-U.S. public finance
 
44,488

 
BBB+
 
44,103

 
BBB+
Total public finance
 
$
225,025

 
A-
 
$
230,665

 
A-
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RMBS
 
$
3,835

 
BBB-
 
$
4,270

 
BBB-
Life insurance transactions
 
1,478

 
AA-
 
1,435

 
A+
Pooled corporate obligations
 
1,477

 
AA-
 
1,215

 
AA-
Consumer receivables
 
1,140

 
A-
 
1,255

 
A-
Financial products
 
1,002

 
AA-
 
1,094

 
AA-
Other structured finance
 
617

 
BBB+
 
675

 
A-
Total U.S. structured finance
 
9,549

 
A-
 
9,944

 
A-
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RMBS
 
438

 
A
 
576

 
A-
Pooled corporate obligations
 
55

 
BB+
 
126

 
A
Other structured finance
 
300

 
A
 
491

 
A
Total non-U.S. structured finance
 
793

 
A
 
1,193

 
A
Total structured finance
 
$
10,342

 
A-
 
$
11,137

 
A-
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
 
$
235,367

 
A-
 
$
241,802

 
A-


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and the Company's internal rating approach, and of the various sectors.



17



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 3)
As of June 30, 2019
(dollars in millions)


Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 
 
Public Finance - U.S.
 
Public Finance - Non-U.S.
 
Structured Finance - U.S.
 
Structured Finance - Non-U.S.
 
Total
Ratings:
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
AAA
 
$
385

0.2
%
 
$
2,460

5.5
%
 
$
1,428

15.0
%
 
$
181

22.8
%
 
$
4,454

1.9
%
AA
 
21,289

11.8

 
1,880

4.2

 
3,617

37.9

 
39

4.9

 
26,825

11.4

A
 
100,156

55.5

 
13,067

29.4

 
1,079

11.3

 
183

23.1

 
114,485

48.6

BBB
 
52,682

29.2

 
26,197

58.9

 
1,512

15.8

 
349

44.0

 
80,740

34.3

BIG
 
6,025

3.3

 
884

2.0

 
1,913

20.0

 
41

5.2

 
8,863

3.8

Net Par Outstanding (1)
 
$
180,537

100.0
%
 
$
44,488

100.0
%
 
$
9,549

100.0
%
 
$
793

100.0
%
 
$
235,367

100.0
%

1)
As of June 30, 2019, excludes $1.5 billion of net par attributable to loss mitigation strategies, including loss mitigation securities held in the investment portfolio, which are primarily BIG.


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and the Company's internal rating approach, and of the various sectors.





18



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 3)
As of June 30, 2019
(dollars in millions)


Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
% of Total
U.S.:
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
California
 
$
33,822

 
14.4
%
Pennsylvania
 
16,703

 
7.1

Texas
 
15,834

 
6.7

Illinois
 
14,370

 
6.1

New York
 
14,226

 
6.1

New Jersey
 
10,633

 
4.5

Florida
 
7,881

 
3.4

Michigan
 
5,523

 
2.3

Puerto Rico
 
4,494

 
1.9

Alabama
 
4,019

 
1.7

Other
 
53,032

 
22.5

Total U.S. public finance
 
180,537

 
76.7

U.S. structured finance
 
9,549

 
4.1

Total U.S.
 
190,086

 
80.8

 
 
 
 
 
Non-U.S.:
 
 
 
 
United Kingdom
 
31,397

 
13.3

France
 
3,159

 
1.3

Canada
 
2,564

 
1.1

Australia
 
2,121

 
0.9

Austria
 
1,224

 
0.5

Other
 
4,816

 
2.1

Total non-U.S.
 
45,281

 
19.2

 
 
 
 
 
Total net par outstanding
 
$
235,367

 
100.0
%

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and of the various sectors.



19



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Non-Financial Guaranty Exposure
As of June 30, 2019
(dollars in millions)


 
 
Gross Exposure
 
Net Exposure
 
 
As of June 30, 2019
 
As of December 31, 2018
 
As of June 30, 2019
 
As of December 31, 2018
Life insurance transactions (1)
 
$
908

 
$
880

 
$
784

 
$
763

Aircraft residual value insurance policies
 
360

 
340

 
239

 
218


1)
The life insurance transactions net exposure is expected to increase to approximately $949 million prior to September 30, 2036.


20



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Exposure to Puerto Rico (1 of 3)
As of June 30, 2019
(dollars in millions)

Exposure to Puerto Rico
 
Par Outstanding
 
Debt Service Outstanding
 
Gross
 
Net
 
Gross
 
Net
   Total
$
4,698

 
$
4,494

 
$
7,316

 
$
7,029



Exposure to Puerto Rico by Risk (1) 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
 
 
AGM
 
AGC
 
AG Re
 
Eliminations (2)
 
Total Net Par Outstanding
 
Gross Par Outstanding
Commonwealth Constitutionally Guaranteed
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds (3) (4)
$
647

 
$
301

 
$
393

 
$
(1
)
 
$
1,340

 
$
1,383

Puerto Rico Public Buildings Authority (PBA)
9

 
142

 

 
(9
)
 
142

 
148

Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (PRHTA) (Transportation revenue) (4)
233

 
495

 
195

 
(79
)
 
844

 
874

PRHTA (Highways revenue) (4)
351

 
84

 
40

 

 
475

 
536

Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority (PRCCDA)

 
152

 

 

 
152

 
152

Puerto Rico Infrastructure Financing Authority (PRIFA)

 
15

 
1

 

 
16

 
16

Other Public Corporations
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA)(4)
544

 
72

 
232

 

 
848

 
866

Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA) (5)

 
284

 
89

 

 
373

 
373

Puerto Rico Municipal Finance Agency (MFA) (5)
189

 
40

 
74

 

 
303

 
349

University of Puerto Rico (U of PR) (5)

 
1

 

 

 
1

 
1

Total exposure to Puerto Rico
$
1,973

 
$
1,586

 
$
1,024

 
$
(89
)
 
$
4,494

 
$
4,698


1)
While the Company no longer has any insured exposure to COFINA, it does have $152 million initial par of COFINA Exchange Senior Bonds in its investment portfolio.

2)
Net par outstanding eliminations relate to second-to-pay policies under which an Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary guarantees an obligation already insured by another Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary.

3)
Includes exposure to capital appreciation bonds with a current aggregate net par outstanding of $2.5 million and a fully accreted net par at maturity of $2.5 million.

4)
As of the date of this filing, the seven-member financial oversight board established by the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA) has certified a filing under Title III of PROMESA for these exposures.

5)
As of the date of this filing, the Company has not paid claims on these credits.






21



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Exposure to Puerto Rico (2 of 3)
As of June 30, 2019
(dollars in millions)

Amortization Schedule of Net Par Outstanding of Puerto Rico
 
2019 (3Q)
2019 (4Q)
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029 - 2033
2034 - 2038
2039 - 2043
2044 - 2047
Total
Commonwealth Constitutionally Guaranteed
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds (1)
$
87

$

$
141

$
15

$
37

$
14

$
73

$
68

$
34

$
90

$
33

$
341

$
407

$

$

$
1,340

PBA
3


5

13


7


6

11

40

1

36

20



142

Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
PRHTA (Transportation revenue)
32


25

18

28

33

4

29

24

29

34

127

296

165


844

PRHTA (Highway revenue)
21


22

35

6

32

33

34

1


9

145

137



475

PRCCDA









19


50

83



152

PRIFA





2







3

11


16

Other Public Corporations
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


PREPA
26


48

28

28

95

93

68

106

105

68

174

9



848

PRASA






1

25

27

28

29


2


261

373

MFA
55


45

40

40

22

18

17

34

12

10

10




303

U of PR











1




1

Total
$
224

$

$
286

$
149

$
139

$
205

$
222

$
247

$
237

$
323

$
184

$
884

$
957

$
176

$
261

$
4,494


1)
Includes exposure to capital appreciation bonds with a current aggregate net par outstanding of $2.5 million and a fully accreted net par at maturity of $2.5 million.


22



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Exposure to Puerto Rico (3 of 3)
As of June 30, 2019
(dollars in millions)

Amortization Schedule of Net Debt Service Outstanding of Puerto Rico
 
2019 (3Q)
2019 (4Q)
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029 - 2033
2034 - 2038
2039 - 2043
2044 - 2047
Total
Commonwealth Constitutionally Guaranteed
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds (1)
$
122

$

$
206

$
74

$
94

$
70

$
128

$
119

$
82

$
136

$
74

$
512

$
457

$

$

$
2,074

PBA
7


12

20

6

13

6

13

17

45

3

50

23



215

Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
PRHTA (Transportation revenue)
54


67

59

68

72

41

65

59

63

66

262

375

180


1,431

PRHTA (Highway revenue)
34


46

58

27

52

51

51

17

15

25

208

152



736

PRCCDA
3


7

7

7

7

7

7

7

26

6

79

91



254

PRIFA


1

1

1

3

1

1

1

1


3

7

12


32

Other Public Corporations
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
PREPA
43

3

87

63

62

128

121

91

126

122

81

198

9



1,134

PRASA
10


19

19

19

19

21

45

44

44

44

68

70

67

300

789

MFA
62


58

50

48

28

23

21

37

14

11

11




363

U of PR











1




1

Total
$
335

$
3

$
503

$
351

$
332

$
392

$
399

$
413

$
390

$
466

$
310

$
1,392

$
1,184

$
259

$
300

$
7,029


1)
Includes exposure to capital appreciation bonds with a current aggregate net par outstanding of $2.5 million and a fully accreted net par at maturity of $2.5 million.


23



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile
As of June 30, 2019
(dollars in millions)


Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Ratings
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
% of Total
 
Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement
 
Avg. Current Credit Enhancement
Ratings:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
AAA
 
$
243

 
16.4
%
 
46.9%
 
71.3%
AA
 
634

 
42.9
%
 
43.0%
 
49.9%
A
 
408

 
27.6
%
 
36.0%
 
39.4%
BBB
 
153

 
10.4
%
 
41.0%
 
46.1%
BIG
 
40

 
2.7
%
 
N/A
 
N/A
Total exposures
 
$
1,478

 
100.0
%
 
41.2%
 
49.2%


Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
% of Total
 
Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement
 
Avg. Current Credit Enhancement
 
Avg. Rating
Asset class:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Trust preferred
 
 
 


 
 
 
 
 
 
Banks and insurance
 
$
590

 
39.9
%
 
44.4%
 
57.7%
 
AA
U.S. mortgage and real estate investment trusts
 
120

 
8.2

 
47.3%
 
61.9%
 
A-
Collateralized bond obligations / collateralized loan obligations
 
654

 
44.2

 
37.1%
 
39.2%
 
A
Other pooled corporates
 
114

 
7.7

 
N/A
 
N/A
 
A+
Total exposures
 
$
1,478

 
100.0
%
 
41.2%
 
49.2%
 
A+


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of internal ratings, performance indicators and sectors.




24



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
U.S. RMBS Profile
As of June 30, 2019
(dollars in millions)

                
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating and Type of Exposure
Ratings:
 
Prime First Lien
 
Alt-A First Lien
 
Option ARMs
 
Subprime
First Lien
 
Second Lien
 
Total Net Par Outstanding
AAA
 
$
11

 
$
132

 
$
20

 
$
912

 
$
1

 
$
1,076

AA
 
18

 
120

 
15

 
210

 
2

 
365

A
 
10

 

 

 
18

 

 
28

BBB
 
18

 
42

 

 
15

 
568

 
643

BIG
 
66

 
362

 
39

 
1,068

 
188

 
1,723

Total exposures
 
$
123


$
656


$
74


$
2,223


$
759


$
3,835



Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Year Insured and Type of Exposure
 
Year
insured:
 
Prime First Lien
 
Alt-A First Lien
 
Option ARMs
 
Subprime
First Lien
 
Second Lien
 
Total Net Par Outstanding
2004 and prior
 
$
25

 
$
21

 
$
2

 
$
628

 
$
57

 
$
733

2005
 
56

 
231

 
26

 
229

 
150

 
692

2006
 
42

 
46

 
12

 
317

 
241

 
658

2007
 

 
358

 
34

 
1,004

 
311

 
1,707

2008
 

 

 

 
45

 

 
45

  Total exposures
 
$
123

 
$
656

 
$
74

 
$
2,223

 
$
759

 
$
3,835



Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's presentation of net par outstanding and a description of sectors.

























25



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (1 of 4)
(dollars in millions)

BIG Exposures by Asset Exposure Type
                                                                
 
 
As of
 
 
June 30,

December 31,
 
 
2019

2018
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
General obligation
 
$
2,089

 
$
2,146

Tax backed
 
1,984

 
2,263

Municipal utilities
 
1,487

 
1,487

Higher education
 
210

 
217

Transportation
 
90

 
85

Healthcare
 
32

 
55

Housing revenue
 
18

 
18

Investor-owned utilities
 
3

 
5

Infrastructure finance
 
2

 
2

Other public finance
 
110

 
110

Total U.S. public finance
 
6,025

 
6,388

Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
Infrastructure finance
 
504

 
654

Other public finance
 
380

 
387

Total non-U.S. public finance
 
884

 
1,041

Total public finance
 
$
6,909

 
$
7,429

 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
RMBS
 
$
1,723

 
$
2,387

Consumer receivables
 
118

 
125

Life insurance transactions
 
40

 
85

Other structured finance
 
32

 
35

Total U.S. structured finance
 
1,913

 
2,632

Non-U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
RMBS
 

 
45

Pooled corporate obligations
 
40

 
42

Other structured finance
 
1

 
12

Total non-U.S. structured finance
 
41

 
99

Total structured finance
 
$
1,954

 
$
2,731

Total BIG net par outstanding
 
$
8,863

 
$
10,160



Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's presentation of net par outstanding and a description of various sectors.



26



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (2 of 4)
(dollars in millions)


Net Par Outstanding by BIG Category(1)  
 
 
 
As of
 
 
June 30,
 
December 31,
 
 
2019
 
2018
Category 1
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
$
1,679

 
$
1,767

Non-U.S. public finance
 
884

 
796

U.S. structured finance
 
178

 
397

Non-U.S. structured finance
 
40

 
98

Total Category 1
 
2,781

 
3,058

Category 2
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
398

 
399

Non-U.S. public finance
 

 
245

U.S. structured finance
 
130

 
293

Non-U.S. structured finance
 

 

Total Category 2
 
528

 
937

Category 3
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
3,948

 
4,222

Non-U.S. public finance
 

 

U.S. structured finance
 
1,605

 
1,942

Non-U.S. structured finance
 
1

 
1

Total Category 3
 
5,554

 
6,165

BIG Total
 
$
8,863

 
$
10,160


1)
Assured Guaranty's surveillance department is responsible for monitoring the Company's portfolio of credits and maintains a list of BIG credits. BIG Category 1: Below-investment-grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make future losses possible, but for which none are currently expected. BIG Category 2: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims which are claims that the Company expects to be reimbursed within one year) have yet been paid. BIG Category 3: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid.


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's internal rating approach, presentation of net par outstanding and a description of various sectors.




27



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (3 of 4)
As of June 30, 2019
(dollars in millions)

Public Finance BIG Exposures with Revenue Sources Greater Than $50 Million

 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal
Rating (1)
Name or description
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
Puerto Rico, General Obligation, Appropriations and Guarantees of the Commonwealth
 
$
1,498

 
CCC
Puerto Rico Highways & Transportation Authority
 
1,319

 
CCC
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority
 
848

 
CCC
Puerto Rico Aqueduct & Sewer Authority
 
373

 
CCC
Puerto Rico Municipal Finance Agency
 
303

 
CCC
Jackson Water & Sewer System, Mississippi
 
191

 
BB
Virgin Islands Public Finance Authority
 
167

 
BB
Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority
 
152

 
CCC
Stockton Pension Obligation Bonds, California
 
110

 
B
Penn Hills School District, Pennsylvania
 
107

 
BB
Alabama State University (Montgomery)
 
106

 
BB+
Pennsylvania Economic Development Financing Authority (Capitol Region Parking System)
 
76

 
BB
Coatesville Area School District, Pennsylvania
 
75

 
BB
Atlantic City, New Jersey
 
56

 
BB
Virgin Islands Water and Power Authority
 
54

 
CCC
Total U.S. public finance
 
$
5,435

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
Valencia Fair
 
$
310

 
BB+
Road Management Services PLC (A13 Highway)
 
191

 
B+
M6 Duna Autopalya Koncesszios Zartkoruen Mukodo Reszvenytarsasag
 
158

 
BB+
CountyRoute (A130) plc
 
78

 
BB-
Metropolitano de Porto Lease and Sublease of Railroad Equipment
 
51

 
BB-
Total non-U.S. public finance
 
$
788

 
 
Total
 
$
6,223

 
 

1)
Transactions rated below B- are categorized as CCC.


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's internal rating approach, presentation of net par outstanding and a description of various sectors.



28



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (4 of 4)
As of June 30, 2019
(dollars in millions)

Structured Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million

 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal
Rating (1)
 
60+ Day Delinquencies
Name or description
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Option One 2007-FXD2
 
$
188

 
CCC
 
14.5%
Soundview 2007-WMC1
 
157

 
CCC
 
29.2%
Nomura Asset Accept. Corp. 2007-1
 
113

 
CCC
 
19.0%
Option One Mortgage Loan Trust 2007-Hl1
 
112

 
CCC
 
23.0%
Argent Securities Inc., Asset Backed Pass Through Certificates 2005-W4
 
93

 
CCC
 
14.1%
New Century 2005-A
 
91

 
CCC
 
13.5%
MABS 2007-NCW
 
68

 
CCC
 
18.8%
Ace 2007-D1
 
55

 
CCC
 
26.0%
Ace Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-SL1
 
53

 
CCC
 
4.8%
Subtotal RMBS
 
$
930

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
National Collegiate Trust Series 2006-2
 
$
65

 
CCC
 
2.5%
Subtotal non-RMBS
 
$
65

 
 
 
 
Total U.S. structured finance
 
$
995

 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
Total non-U.S. structured finance
 
$

 
 
 
 
Total
 
$
995

 
 
 
 
 
 


 
 
 
 

1)
Transactions rated below B- are categorized as CCC.

Please refer to the Glossary for the Company's internal rating approach, presentation of net par outstanding and a description of performance indicators and sectors.

29



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (1 of 3)
As of June 30, 2019
(dollars in millions)

50 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures by Revenue Source
                                                                                          
Credit Name:
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal
Rating (1)
New Jersey (State of)
 
$
4,154

 
BBB
Pennsylvania (Commonwealth of)
 
1,992

 
A-
Illinois (State of)
 
1,864

 
BBB
Puerto Rico, General Obligation, Appropriations and Guarantees of the Commonwealth
 
1,498

 
CCC
Puerto Rico Highways & Transportation Authority
 
1,319

 
CCC
New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority
 
1,258

 
A-
Massachusetts (Commonwealth of)
 
1,220

 
AA-
Chicago (City of) Illinois
 
1,159

 
BBB
California (State of)
 
1,130

 
AA-
North Texas Tollway Authority
 
1,100

 
A
Wisconsin (State of)
 
1,061

 
A+
New York (City of) New York
 
1,005

 
AA-
Great Lakes Water Authority (Sewerage), Michigan
 
980

 
BBB+
San Diego Family Housing, LLC Military Housing
 
956

 
AA
Philadelphia (City of) Pennsylvania
 
922

 
BBB+
Chicago Public Schools, Illinois
 
917

 
BBB-
Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) Water Resources
 
913

 
AA
Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission
 
886

 
A-
Port Authority of New York & New Jersey
 
865

 
BBB-
Philadelphia School District, Pennsylvania
 
852

 
A-
Metropolitan Pier & Exposition Authority, Illinois
 
852

 
BBB-
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority
 
848

 
CCC
Long Island Power Authority
 
801

 
BBB+
Suffolk County, New York
 
791

 
BBB
Nassau County, New York
 
753

 
A-
Arizona (State of)
 
750

 
A+
Georgia Board of Regents
 
700

 
A
Connecticut (State of)
 
698

 
A-
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer
 
689

 
BBB
Metro Washington Airports Authority (Dulles Toll Road)
 
664

 
BBB+
Regional Transportation Authority, Illinois
 
657

 
AA-
ProMedica Healthcare Obligated Group
 
627

 
BBB+
Clarksville Natural Gas Acquisition Corporation, Tennessee
 
614

 
A
LCOR Alexandria LLC
 
614

 
BBB+
Garden State Preservation Trust (Open Space & Farmland), New Jersey
 
576

 
BBB+
Oglethorpe Power Corporation, Georgia
 
575

 
BBB
Sacramento County, California
 
569

 
A-
Pittsburgh Water & Sewer, Pennsylvania
 
527

 
A-
New Jersey Turnpike Authority, New Jersey
 
518

 
A-
Miami-Dade County Aviation, Florida
 
474

 
A
San Bernardino County, California
 
470

 
A+
Anaheim (City of), California
 
465

 
BBB+
Yankee Stadium LLC New York City Industrial Development Authority
 
464

 
BBB-
Montefiore Medical Center, New York
 
439

 
BBB
Oyster Bay, New York
 
434

 
BBB-
Foothills - Eastern Transportation Corridor, California
 
433

 
BBB-
Harris County - Houston Sports Authority, Texas
 
433

 
A-
Great Lakes Water Authority (Water), Michigan
 
429

 
BBB+
Oregon School Boards Association
 
424

 
AA-
Jets Stadium Development, LLC
 
421

 
BBB
   Total top 50 U.S. public finance exposures
 
$
43,760

 
 

1)
Transactions rated below B- are categorized as CCC.

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors.

30



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (2 of 3)
As of June 30, 2019
(dollars in millions)

25 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures
                                                                                                            
Credit Name:
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal
Rating (1)
Private US Insurance Securitization
 
$
530

 
AA
Private US Insurance Securitization
 
500

 
AA
SLM Private Credit Student Trust 2007-A
 
464

 
A+
Fortress Credit Opportunities VII CLO Limited
 
257

 
AA-
Private US Insurance Securitization
 
250

 
AA
SLM Private Credit Student Loan Trust 2006-C
 
223

 
AA-
ABPCI Direct Lending Fund CLO I Ltd
 
208

 
A
Brightwood Fund III Static 2018-1, LLC
 
188

 
A-
Option One 2007-FXD2
 
188

 
CCC
Timberlake Financial, LLC Floating Insured Notes
 
158

 
BBB-
Soundview 2007-WMC1
 
157

 
CCC
CWABS 2007-4
 
120

 
A+
Countrywide HELOC 2006-I
 
117

 
BBB
Nomura Asset Accept. Corp. 2007-1
 
114

 
CCC
Option One Mortgage Loan Trust 2007-Hl1
 
112

 
CCC
Soundview Home Equity Loan Trust 2006-OPT1
 
111

 
AAA
New Century Home Equity Loan Trust 2006-1
 
111

 
AAA
CWALT Alternative Loan Trust 2007-HY9
 
105

 
A
OwnIt Mortgage Loan ABS Certificates 2006-3
 
104

 
AAA
Structured Asset Investment Loan Trust 2006-1
 
95

 
AAA
Argent Securities Inc., Asset Backed Pass Through Certificates 2005-W4
 
93

 
CCC
New Century 2005-A
 
91

 
CCC
Countrywide 2007-13
 
87

 
AA-
ALESCO Preferred Funding XIII, Ltd.
 
84

 
AA
Preferred Term Securities XXIV, Ltd.
 
80

 
AA-
   Total top 25 U.S. structured finance exposures
 
$
4,547

 
 

1)
Transactions rated below B- are categorized as CCC.

Please refer to the Glossary for the Company's internal rating approach and presentation of net par outstanding sectors.

31



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (3 of 3)
As of June 30, 2019
(dollars in millions)

50 Largest Non-U.S. Exposures by Revenue Source
                                                                                                    
Credit Name:
Country
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
Southern Water Services Limited
United Kingdom
 
$
2,634

 
A-
Hydro-Quebec, Province of Quebec
Canada
 
2,044

 
A+
Thames Water Utility Finance Plc
United Kingdom
 
1,967

 
A-
Societe des Autoroutes du Nord et de l'Est de France S.A.
France
 
1,713

 
BBB+
Southern Gas Networks PLC
United Kingdom
 
1,650

 
BBB
Anglian Water Services Financing
United Kingdom
 
1,425

 
A-
Dwr Cymru Financing Limited
United Kingdom
 
1,400

 
A-
National Grid Gas PLC
United Kingdom
 
1,278

 
BBB+
British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC)
United Kingdom
 
1,270

 
A+
Channel Link Enterprises Finance PLC
France, United Kingdom
 
1,200

 
BBB
Verbund - Lease and Sublease of Hydro-Electric equipment
Austria
 
1,075

 
AAA
Capital Hospitals (Barts)
United Kingdom
 
899

 
BBB-
Aspire Defence Finance plc
United Kingdom
 
841

 
BBB+
Verdun Participations 2 S.A.S.
France
 
723

 
BBB-
National Grid Company PLC
United Kingdom
 
681

 
BBB+
Yorkshire Water Services Finance Plc
United Kingdom
 
642

 
A-
Sydney Airport Finance Company
Australia
 
624

 
BBB+
Envestra Limited
Australia
 
617

 
A-
InspirED Education (South Lanarkshire) PLC
United Kingdom
 
604

 
BBB-
Campania Region - Healthcare receivable
Italy
 
574

 
BBB-
Coventry & Rugby Hospital Company
United Kingdom
 
534

 
BBB-
Wessex Water Services Finance plc
United Kingdom
 
516

 
BBB+
Severn Trent Water Utilities Finance Plc
United Kingdom
 
504

 
BBB+
Derby Healthcare PLC
United Kingdom
 
503

 
BBB
Central Nottinghamshire Hospitals PLC
United Kingdom
 
462

 
BBB
North Staffordshire PFI
United Kingdom
 
458

 
BBB-
International Infrastructure Pool
United Kingdom
 
454

 
AAA
International Infrastructure Pool
United Kingdom
 
454

 
AAA
International Infrastructure Pool
United Kingdom
 
454

 
AAA
NewHospitals (St Helens & Knowsley) Finance PLC
United Kingdom
 
451

 
BBB
Comision Federal De Electricidad (CFE) El Cajon Project
Mexico
 
447

 
BBB-
United Utilities Water PLC
United Kingdom
 
434

 
BBB+
NATS (En Route) PLC
United Kingdom
 
428

 
A
South East Water
United Kingdom
 
407

 
BBB+
Scotland Gas Networks plc
United Kingdom
 
401

 
BBB
The Hospital Company (QAH Portsmouth) Limited
United Kingdom
 
379

 
BBB
BBI (DBCT) Finance Property Limited
Australia
 
372

 
BBB
Octagon Healthcare Funding PLC
United Kingdom
 
325

 
BBB
St. James's Oncology Financing plc
United Kingdom
 
314

 
BBB
Valencia Fair
Spain
 
310

 
BB+
Bakethin Finance Plc
United Kingdom
 
307

 
A-
Catalyst Healthcare (Romford) Financing PLC
United Kingdom
 
305

 
BBB
Integrated Accommodation Services PLC
United Kingdom
 
303

 
BBB+
MPC Funding Limited
Australia
 
300

 
BBB+
The Republic of Poland
Poland
 
288

 
A-
Western Power Distribution (South Wales) PLC
United Kingdom
 
286

 
BBB+
Dali Capital (Northumbrian Water) PLC
United Kingdom
 
286

 
BBB+
Sarawak Capital Incorporated
Malaysia
 
280

 
BBB+
Japan Expressway Holding and Debt Repayment Agency
Japan
 
262

 
A+
Western Power Distribution (SW) PLC
United Kingdom
 
257

 
BBB+
Total top 50 non-U.S. exposures
 
 
$
35,342

 
 


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors.

32



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid
(dollars in millions)

Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid(1) for the Three Months Ended June 30, 2019

 
 
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered)
as of
March 31, 2019
 
Economic Loss Development During 2Q-19
 
(Paid) Recovered Losses
During 2Q-19
 
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered)
as of
June 30, 2019
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
$
666

 
$
92

 
$
(9
)
 
$
749

Non-U.S public finance
 
31

 
(8
)
 

 
23

Public Finance
 
697

 
84

 
(9
)
 
772

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS (2)
 
237

 
(118
)
 
43

 
162

Other structured finance
 
29

 
(3
)
 

 
26

Structured Finance
 
266

 
(121
)
 
43

 
188

Total
 
$
963

 
$
(37
)
 
$
34

 
$
960




Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid(1) for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2019

 
 
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered)
as of
December 31, 2018
 
Economic Loss Development During 2019
 
(Paid) Recovered Losses
During 2019
 
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered)
as of
June 30, 2019
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
$
832

 
$
154

 
$
(237
)
 
$
749

Non-U.S public finance
 
32

 
(9
)
 

 
23

Public Finance
 
864

 
145

 
(237
)
 
772

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS (2)
 
293

 
(183
)
 
52

 
162

Other structured finance
 
26

 
(1
)
 
1

 
26

Structured Finance
 
319

 
(184
)
 
53

 
188

Total
 
$
1,183

 
$
(39
)
 
$
(184
)
 
$
960


1)
Includes expected loss to be paid, economic loss development and paid (recovered) losses for all contracts (i.e. those accounted for as insurance, credit derivatives and FG VIEs).

2)
Includes future net representations and warranties payable of $34 million as of June 30, 2019 and receivable of $5 million as of December 31, 2018.

33



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Loss Measures
As of June 30, 2019
(dollars in millions)

 
 
 Total Net Par Outstanding for BIG Transactions
 
 
2Q-19
 Loss and
LAE
 
2Q-19 Loss and LAE included in Non-GAAP Operating Income (1)
 
2Q-19 Effect of FG VIE Consolidation (2)
 
 
2019
Loss and
LAE
 
2019 Loss and LAE included in Non-GAAP Operating Income (1)
 
2019 Effect of FG VIE Consolidation (2)
Public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
$
6,025

 
 
$
94

 
$
94

 
$

 
 
$
164

 
$
164

 
$

Non-U.S public finance
 
884

 
 
(8
)
 
(8
)
 

 
 
(8
)
 
(8
)
 

Public finance
 
6,909

 
 
86

 
86

 

 
 
156

 
156

 

Structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS
 
1,723

 
 
(88
)
 
(90
)
 
14

 
 
(115
)
 
(118
)
 
15

Other structured finance
 
231

 
 
1

 
3

 

 
 
4

 
6

 

Structured finance
 
1,954

 
 
(87
)
 
(87
)
 
14

 
 
(111
)
 
(112
)
 
15

Total
 
$
8,863

 
 
$
(1
)
 
$
(1
)
 
$
14

 
 
$
45

 
$
44

 
$
15


1)
Non-GAAP operating income includes financial guaranty insurance and credit derivatives.

2)
The "Effect of FG VIE Consolidation" column represents amounts included in the condensed consolidated statements of operations and non-GAAP operating income that the Company removes to arrive at the core financial measures that management uses in certain of its compensation calculations and its decision making process. Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and of the various sectors.


34



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary of Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
 
 
As of and for Six
Months Ended
June 30, 2019
 
Year Ended December 31,
 
 
 
2018
 
2017
 
2016
 
2015
GAAP Summary Statements of Operations Data
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$
230

 
$
548

 
$
690

 
$
864

 
$
766

Net investment income(1)
 
208

 
395

 
417

 
408

 
423

Total expenses
 
224

 
422

 
748

 
660

 
776

Income (loss) before income taxes
 
240

 
580

 
991

 
1,017

 
1,431

Net income (loss)
 
196

 
521

 
730

 
881

 
1,056

Net income (loss) per diluted share
 
1.90

 
4.68

 
5.96

 
6.56

 
7.08

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total investments and cash
 
$
10,983

 
$
10,977

 
$
11,539

 
$
11,103

 
$
11,358

Total assets
 
13,581

 
13,603

 
14,433

 
14,151

 
14,544

Unearned premium reserve
 
3,387

 
3,512

 
3,475

 
3,511

 
3,996

Loss and LAE reserve
 
1,102

 
1,177

 
1,444

 
1,127

 
1,067

Long-term debt
 
1,233

 
1,233

 
1,292

 
1,306

 
1,300

Shareholders’ equity
 
6,722

 
6,555

 
6,839

 
6,504

 
6,063

Shareholders’ equity per share
 
67.35

 
63.23

 
58.95

 
50.82

 
43.96

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other Financial Information (GAAP Basis)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Financial guaranty:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
$
361,999

 
$
371,586

 
$
401,118

 
$
437,535

 
$
536,341

Gross debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
363,711

 
375,080

 
408,492

 
455,000

 
559,470

Net par outstanding (end of period)
 
235,367

 
241,802

 
264,952

 
296,318

 
358,571

Gross par outstanding (end of period)
 
236,739

 
244,191

 
269,386

 
307,474

 
373,192

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other Financial Information (Statutory Basis)(2)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Financial guaranty:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
$
352,838

 
$
359,499

 
$
373,340

 
$
401,004

 
$
502,331

Gross debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
354,549

 
362,974

 
380,478

 
417,072

 
524,104

Net par outstanding (end of period)
 
226,916

 
230,664

 
239,003

 
262,468

 
327,306

Gross par outstanding (end of period)
 
228,288

 
233,036

 
243,217

 
272,286

 
340,662

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Claims-paying resources(3)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Policyholders' surplus
 
$
4,997

 
$
5,148

 
$
5,305

 
$
5,126

 
$
4,631

Contingency reserve
 
1,715

 
1,663

 
1,750

 
2,008

 
2,263

Qualified statutory capital
 
6,712

 
6,811

 
7,055

 
7,134

 
6,894

Unearned premium reserve and net deferred ceding commission income
 
2,899

 
2,950

 
2,849

 
2,672

 
3,225

Loss and LAE reserves
 
820

 
1,023

 
1,092

 
888

 
1,043

Total policyholders' surplus and reserves
 
10,431

 
10,784

 
10,996

 
10,694

 
11,162

Present value of installment premium
 
446

 
451

 
445

 
500

 
645

CCS and standby line of credit
 
400

 
400

 
400

 
400

 
400

Excess of loss reinsurance facility
 
180

 
180

 
180

 
360

 
360

Total claims-paying resources
 
$
11,457

 
$
11,815

 
$
12,021

 
$
11,954

 
$
12,567

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ratios:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net exposure to qualified statutory capital
 
34
:1
 
34:1

 
34
:1
 
37
:1
 
47
:1
Capital ratio
 
53
:1
 
53:1

 
53
:1
 
56
:1
 
73
:1
Financial resources ratio
 
31
:1
 
31:1

 
31
:1
 
34
:1
 
40
:1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Par and Debt Service Written (FG and non-FG)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross debt service written:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
9,922

 
$
31,989

 
$
26,988

 
$
25,423

 
$
25,832

Public finance - non-U.S.
 
554

 
7,166

 
2,811

 
848

 
2,054

Structured finance - U.S.
 
822

 
1,191

 
500

 
1,143

 
355

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 
61

 
369

 
202

 
30

 
69

Total gross debt service written
 
$
11,359

 
$
40,715

 
$
30,501

 
$
27,444

 
$
28,310

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service written
 
$
11,359

 
$
40,630

 
$
30,476

 
$
27,444

 
$
28,310

Net par written
 
6,890

 
24,538

 
17,962

 
17,854

 
17,336

Gross par written
 
6,890

 
24,624

 
18,024

 
17,854

 
17,336


1) In the first quarter of 2019, the Company reclassified equity in net earnings of investees from net investment income to a separate line item on the consolidated statements of operations. Prior periods have been updated to reflect this change.
2)
Statutory amounts prepared on a consolidated basis. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners Annual Statements for U.S. Domiciled Insurance Subsidiaries are prepared on a stand-alone basis.
3)
See page 9 for additional detail on claims-paying resources.

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.
Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net debt service and net par outstanding and of the various sectors.

35



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary of GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations(1) (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 
 
As of and for Six Months Ended
June 30, 2019
 
Year Ended December 31,
 
 
2018
 
2017
 
2016
 
2015
Total GWP
 
$
90

 
$
612

 
$
307

 
$
154

 
$
181

Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments (2)
 
12

 
119

 
99

 
(10
)
 
55

Upfront GWP
 
78

 
493

 
208

 
164

 
126

Plus: Installment premium PVP
 
18

 
170

 
81

 
50

 
53

Total PVP
 
$
96

 
$
663

 
$
289

 
$
214

 
$
179

 
 


 
 
 


 


 


PVP:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
76

 
$
391

 
$
196

 
$
161

 
$
124

Public finance - non-U.S.
 
11

 
94

 
66

 
25

 
27

Structured finance - U.S.
 
8

 
166

 
12

 
27

 
22

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 
1

 
12

 
15

 
1

 
6

Total PVP
 
$
96

 
$
663

 
$
289

 
$
214

 
$
179

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-GAAP operating income reconciliation:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income (loss)
 
$
196

 
$
521

 
$
730

 
$
881

 
$
1,056

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) on investments
 
(4
)
 
(32
)
 
40

 
(30
)
 
(27
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(40
)
 
101

 
43

 
36

 
505

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
10

 
14

 
(2
)
 

 
27

Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves
 
(3
)
 
(32
)
 
57

 
(33
)
 
(15
)
Total pre-tax adjustments
 
(37
)
 
51

 
138

 
(27
)
 
490

Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments
 
6

 
(12
)
 
(69
)
 
13

 
(144
)
Non-GAAP operating income
 
$
227

 
$
482

 
$
661

 
$
895

 
$
710

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating income (net of tax provision (benefit) of $1, $(1), $6, $7 and $4)
 
$
6

 
$
(4
)
 
$
11

 
$
12

 
$
11

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-GAAP operating income per diluted share reconciliation:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income (loss) per diluted share
 
$
1.90

 
$
4.68

 
$
5.96

 
$
6.56

 
$
7.08

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) on investments
 
(0.04
)
 
(0.29
)
 
0.33

 
(0.23
)
 
(0.18
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(0.39
)
 
0.90

 
0.35

 
0.27

 
3.39

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
0.09

 
0.13

 
(0.02
)
 

 
0.18

Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves
 
(0.02
)
 
(0.29
)
 
0.46

 
(0.25
)
 
(0.10
)
Total pre-tax adjustments
 
(0.36
)
 
0.45

 
1.12

 
(0.21
)
 
3.29

Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments
 
0.06

 
(0.11
)
 
(0.57
)
 
0.09

 
(0.97
)
Non-GAAP operating income per diluted share
 
$
2.20

 
$
4.34

 
$
5.41

 
$
6.68

 
$
4.76

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating income per diluted share
 
$
0.06

 
$
(0.03
)
 
$
0.10

 
$
0.10

 
$
0.07


1)
Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.

2)
Includes present value of new business on installment policies discounted at the prescribed GAAP discount rates, GWP adjustments on existing installment policies due to changes in assumptions, any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts, and other GAAP adjustments.



36



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary of GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations(1) (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 
 
As of and for Six Months Ended
June 30, 2019
 
As of December 31,
 
 
2018
 
2017
 
2016
 
2015
Adjusted book value reconciliation:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity
 
$
6,722

 
$
6,555

 
$
6,839

 
$
6,504

 
$
6,063

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(85
)
 
(45
)
 
(146
)
 
(189
)
 
(241
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
84

 
74

 
60

 
62

 
62

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect
 
478

 
247

 
487

 
316

 
373

Less taxes
 
(90
)
 
(63
)
 
(83
)
 
(71
)
 
(56
)
Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity
 
6,335

 
6,342

 
6,521

 
6,386

 
5,925

Pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Less: Deferred acquisition costs
 
106

 
105

 
101

 
106

 
114

Plus: Net present value of estimated net future revenue
 
196

 
204

 
146

 
136

 
169

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed
 
2,932

 
3,005

 
2,966

 
2,922

 
3,384

Plus taxes
 
(508
)
 
(524
)
 
(512
)
 
(832
)
 
(968
)
Non-GAAP adjusted book value
 
$
8,849

 
$
8,922

 
$
9,020

 
$
8,506

 
$
8,396

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity (net of tax (provision) benefit of $(3), $(1), $(2), $4, and $11)
 
$
12

 
$
3

 
$
5

 
$
(7
)
 
$
(21
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP adjusted book value (net of tax benefit of $1, $4, $3, $12, and $22)
 
$
(2
)
 
$
(15
)
 
$
(14
)
 
$
(24
)
 
$
(43
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Adjusted book value per share reconciliation:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity per share
 
$
67.35

 
$
63.23

 
$
58.95

 
$
50.82

 
$
43.96

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(0.85
)
 
(0.44
)
 
(1.26
)
 
(1.48
)
 
(1.75
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
0.84

 
0.72

 
0.52

 
0.48

 
0.45

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect
 
4.79

 
2.39

 
4.20

 
2.47

 
2.71

Less taxes
 
(0.91
)
 
(0.61
)
 
(0.71
)
 
(0.54
)
 
(0.41
)
Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity per share
 
63.48

 
61.17

 
56.20

 
49.89

 
42.96

Pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Less: Deferred acquisition costs
 
1.06

 
1.01

 
0.87

 
0.83

 
0.83

Plus: Net present value of estimated net future revenue
 
1.97

 
1.96

 
1.26

 
1.07

 
1.23

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed
 
29.37

 
28.98

 
25.56

 
22.83

 
24.53

Plus taxes
 
(5.09
)
 
(5.04
)
 
(4.41
)
 
(6.50
)
 
(7.02
)
Non-GAAP adjusted book value per share
 
$
88.67

 
$
86.06

 
$
77.74

 
$
66.46

 
$
60.87

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity per share
 
$
0.12

 
$
0.03

 
$
0.03

 
$
(0.06
)
 
$
(0.15
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP adjusted book value per share
 
$
(0.02
)
 
$
(0.15
)
 
$
(0.12
)
 
$
(0.18
)
 
$
(0.31
)

1)
Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.


37



Glossary

Net Par Outstanding and Internal Ratings
Net Par Outstanding is insured par exposure, net of reinsurance cessions. Unless otherwise indicated, GAAP net par outstanding amounts exclude amounts as a result of loss mitigation strategies, including securities the Company has purchased for loss mitigation purposes that are held in the investment portfolio.

Internal Rating utilizes the Company’s ratings scale, which is similar to that used by the nationally recognized statistical rating organizations; however, the ratings in the tables may not be the same as ratings assigned by any such rating agency.

Statutory Net Par and Net Debt Service Outstanding. Under statutory accounting, net par and net debt service outstanding would be reduced both when an outstanding issue is legally defeased (i.e., an issuer has legally discharged its obligations with respect to a municipal security by satisfying conditions set forth in defeasance provisions contained in transaction documents and is no longer responsible for the payment of debt service with respect to such obligations) and when such issue is economically defeased (i.e., transaction documents for a municipal security do not contain defeasance provisions but the issuer establishes an escrow account with U.S. government securities in amounts sufficient to pay the refunded bonds when due; the refunded bonds are not considered paid and continue to be outstanding under the transaction documents and the issuer remains responsible to pay debt service when due to the extent monies on deposit in the escrow account are insufficient for such purpose).

Performance Indicators
The performance information described below is obtained from third parties and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to revision as updated or additional information is obtained:

60+ Day Delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or real estate owned divided by current collateral balance.

Average Credit Enhancement is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured Guaranty’s exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Some asset classes may not have subordinated tranches so they are excluded from the weighted averages.

Sectors
Below are brief descriptions of selected types of public and structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures. For a more complete description, please refer to Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2018.

Public Finance:
General Obligation Bonds are full faith and credit bonds that are issued by states, their political subdivisions and other municipal issuers, and are supported by the general obligation of the issuer to pay from available funds and by a pledge of the issuer to levy ad valorem taxes in an amount sufficient to provide for the full payment of the bonds.

Tax-Backed Bonds are obligations that are supported by the issuer from specific and discrete sources of taxation. They include tax-backed revenue bonds, general fund obligations and lease revenue bonds. Tax-backed obligations may be secured by a lien on specific pledged tax revenues, such as a gasoline or excise tax, or incrementally from growth in property tax revenue associated with growth in property values. These obligations also include obligations secured by special assessments levied against property owners and often benefit from issuer covenants to enforce collections of such assessments and to foreclose on delinquent properties. Lease revenue bonds typically are general fund obligations of a municipality or other governmental authority that are subject to annual appropriation or abatement; projects financed and subject to such lease payments ordinarily include real estate or equipment serving an essential public purpose. Bonds in this category also include moral obligations of municipalities or governmental authorities.

Municipal Utility Bonds are obligations of all forms of municipal utilities, including electric, water and sewer utilities and resource recovery revenue bonds. These utilities may be organized in various forms, including municipal enterprise systems, authorities or joint action agencies.

Transportation Bonds include a wide variety of revenue-supported bonds, such as bonds for airports, ports, tunnels, municipal parking facilities, toll roads and toll bridges.

Healthcare Bonds are obligations of healthcare facilities, including community-based hospitals and systems, as well as of health maintenance organizations and long-term care facilities.

Higher Education Bonds are obligations secured by revenue collected by either public or private secondary schools, colleges and universities. Such revenue can encompass all of an institution’s revenue, including tuition and fees, or in other cases, can be specifically restricted to certain auxiliary sources of revenue.


38



Glossary (continued)

Sectors (continued)

Infrastructure Bonds include obligations issued by a variety of entities engaged in the financing of infrastructure projects, such as roads, airports, ports, social infrastructure and other physical assets delivering essential services supported by long-term concession arrangements with a public sector entity.

Housing Revenue Bonds are obligations relating to both single and multi-family housing, issued by states and localities, supported by cash flow and, in some cases, insurance from entities such as the Federal Housing Administration.

Investor-Owned Utility Bonds are obligations primarily backed by investor-owned utilities, first mortgage bond obligations of for-profit electric or water utilities providing retail, industrial and commercial service, and also include sale-leaseback obligation bonds supported by such entities.

Regulated Utility Obligations are issued by government-regulated providers of essential services and commodities, including electric, water and gas utilities. The majority of the Company's international regulated utility business is conducted in the United Kingdom.

Pooled Infrastructure Obligations are synthetic asset-backed obligations that take the form of credit default swap obligations or credit-linked notes that reference either infrastructure finance obligations or a pool of such obligations, with a defined deductible to cover credit risks associated with the referenced obligations.

Other Public Finance primarily include obligations of local, municipal, regional or national governmental authorities or agencies.

Structured Finance:
Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities are obligations backed by closed-end and open-end first and second lien mortgage loans on one-to-four family residential properties, including condominiums and cooperative apartments. First lien mortgage loan products in these transactions include fixed rate, adjustable rate (ARM) and option adjustable-rate (Option ARM) mortgages. The credit quality of borrowers covers a broad range, including ‘‘prime’’, ‘‘subprime’’ and ‘‘Alt-A’’. A prime borrower is generally defined as one with strong risk characteristics as measured by factors such as payment history, credit score, and debt-to-income ratio. A subprime borrower is a borrower with higher risk characteristics, usually as determined by credit score and/or credit history. An Alt-A borrower is generally defined as a prime quality borrower that lacks certain ancillary characteristics, such as fully documented income.

Additional insured obligations within RMBS include Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs), which refers to a type of residential mortgage-backed transaction backed by second-lien loan collateral consisting of home equity lines of credit. U.S. Prime First Lien is a type of residential mortgage-backed securities transaction backed primarily by prime first-lien loan collateral plus an insignificant amount of other miscellaneous RMBS transactions.

Life Insurance Transactions are obligations secured by the future earnings from pools of various types of insurance/reinsurance policies and income produced by invested assets.

Pooled Corporate Obligations are securities primarily backed by various types of corporate debt obligations, such as secured or unsecured bonds, bank loans or loan participations and trust preferred securities (TruPS). These securities are often issued in ‘‘tranches,’’ with subordinated tranches providing credit support to the more senior tranches. The Company’s financial guaranty exposures generally are to the more senior tranches of these issues.

Consumer Receivables Securities are obligations backed by non-mortgage consumer receivables, such as student loans, automobile loans and leases, manufactured home loans and other consumer receivables.

Financial Products Business is the guaranteed investment contracts (GICs) portion of a line of business previously conducted by Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. (AGMH) that the Company did not acquire when it purchased AGMH in 2009 from Dexia SA and that is being run off. That line of business consisted of AGMH's GICs business, its medium term notes business and the equity payment agreements associated with AGMH's leveraged lease business. Assured Guaranty is indemnified by Dexia SA and certain of its affiliates against loss from the former Financial Products Business.

Other Structured Finance Obligations are obligations backed by assets not generally described in any of the other described categories.



39



Non-GAAP Financial Measures
 
To reflect the key financial measures that management analyzes in evaluating the Company’s operations and progress towards long-term goals, the Company discloses both financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP and financial measures not determined in accordance with GAAP (non-GAAP financial measures).

Financial measures identified as non-GAAP should not be considered substitutes for GAAP financial measures. The primary limitation of non-GAAP financial measures is the potential lack of comparability to financial measures of other companies, whose definitions of non-GAAP financial measures may differ from those of the Company.

By disclosing non-GAAP financial measures, the Company gives investors, analysts and financial news reporters access to information that management and the Board of Directors review internally. The Company believes its presentation of non-GAAP financial measures, along with the effect of FG VIE consolidation, provides information that is necessary for analysts to calculate their estimates of Assured Guaranty’s financial results in their research reports on Assured Guaranty and for investors, analysts and the financial news media to evaluate Assured Guaranty’s financial results.

GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company. However, the Company does not own such VIEs and its exposure is limited to its obligation under its financial guaranty insurance contract. Management and the Board of Directors use non-GAAP financial measures adjusted to remove FG VIE consolidation (which the Company refers to as its core financial measures), as well as GAAP financial measures and other factors, to evaluate the Company’s results of operations, financial condition and progress towards long-term goals. The Company uses these core financial measures in its decision making process and in its calculation of certain components of management compensation. Wherever possible, the Company has separately disclosed the effect of FG VIE consolidation.

Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, as the principal financial measure for valuing AGL’s current share price or projected share price and also as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell AGL’s common shares. Many of the Company’s fixed income investors also use this measure to evaluate the Company’s capital adequacy.

Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters also use non-GAAP adjusted book value, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, to evaluate AGL’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the AGL common shares. Non-GAAP operating income adjusted for the effect of FG VIE consolidation enables investors and analysts to evaluate the Company’s financial results in comparison with the consensus analyst estimates distributed publicly by financial databases.

The core financial measures that the Company uses to help determine compensation are: (1) non-GAAP operating income, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, (2) non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, (3) growth in non-GAAP adjusted book value per share, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, and (4) PVP.

The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure disclosed by the Company and describe why it is useful. To the extent there is a directly comparable GAAP financial measure, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is presented within this financial supplement.

Non-GAAP Operating Income: Management believes that non-GAAP operating income is a useful measure because it clarifies the understanding of the underwriting results and financial condition of the Company and presents the results of operations of the Company excluding the fair value adjustments on credit derivatives and CCS that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss, as well as other adjustments described below. Management adjusts non-GAAP operating income further by removing FG VIE consolidation to arrive at its core operating income measure. Non-GAAP operating income is defined as net income (loss) attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:

1) Elimination of realized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments, except for gains and losses on securities classified as trading. The timing of realized gains and losses, which depends largely on market credit cycles, can vary considerably across periods. The timing of sales is largely subject to the Company’s discretion and influenced by market opportunities, as well as the Company’s tax and capital profile.

2) Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives that are recognized in net income, which is the amount of unrealized fair value gains (losses) in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 
3) Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS that are recognized in net income. Such amounts are affected by changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, price indications on the Company's publicly traded debt, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.  

40



Non-GAAP Financial Measures (continued)

4) Elimination of foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of net premium receivables and loss and LAE reserves that are recognized in net income. Long-dated receivables and loss and LAE reserves represent the present value of future contractual or expected cash flows. Therefore, the current period’s foreign exchange remeasurement gains (losses) are not necessarily indicative of the total foreign exchange gains (losses) that the Company will ultimately recognize.
 
5) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

Non-GAAP Operating Shareholders’ Equity and Non-GAAP Adjusted Book Value: Management believes that non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it presents the equity of the Company excluding the fair value adjustments on investments, credit derivatives and CCS, that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss, along with other adjustments described below. Management adjusts non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity further by removing FG VIE consolidation to arrive at its core operating shareholders' equity and core adjusted book value.

Non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity is the basis of the calculation of non-GAAP adjusted book value (see below). Non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity is defined as shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:

1) Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount of unrealized fair value gains (losses) in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

2) Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS. Such amounts are affected by changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, price indications on the Company's publicly traded debt, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 
3) Elimination of unrealized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) (excluding foreign exchange remeasurement). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio is not deemed economic because the Company generally holds these investments to maturity and therefore should not recognize an economic gain or loss.

4) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

Management uses non-GAAP adjusted book value, adjusted for FG VIE consolidation, to measure the intrinsic value of the Company, excluding franchise value. Growth in non-GAAP adjusted book value per share, adjusted for FG VIE consolidation (core adjusted book value), is one of the key financial measures used in determining the amount of certain long-term compensation elements to management and employees and used by rating agencies and investors. Management believes that non-GAAP adjusted book value is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the Company’s in-force premiums and revenues net of expected losses. Non-GAAP adjusted book value is non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity, as defined above, further adjusted for the following:

1) Elimination of deferred acquisition costs, net. These amounts represent net deferred expenses that have already been paid or accrued and will be expensed in future accounting periods.

2) Addition of the net present value of estimated net future revenue. See below.
 
3) Addition of the deferred premium revenue on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed, net of reinsurance. This amount represents the expected future net earned premiums, net of expected losses to be expensed, which are not reflected in GAAP equity.

4) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

The unearned premiums and revenues included in non-GAAP adjusted book value will be earned in future periods, but actual earnings may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current non-GAAP adjusted book value due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults and other factors.


41



Non-GAAP Financial Measures (continued)

Non-GAAP Operating Return on Equity (Non-GAAP Operating ROE): Non-GAAP Operating ROE represents non-GAAP operating income for a specified period divided by the average of non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity at the beginning and the end of that period. Management believes that non-GAAP operating ROE is a useful measure to evaluate the Company’s return on invested capital. Many investors, analysts and members of the financial news media use non-GAAP operating ROE, adjusted for FG VIE consolidation, to evaluate AGL’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the AGL common shares. Quarterly and year-to-date non-GAAP operating ROE are calculated on an annualized basis. Non-GAAP operating ROE, adjusted for FG VIE consolidation, is one of the key management financial measures used in determining the amount of certain long-term compensation to management and employees and used by rating agencies and investors.

Net Present Value of Estimated Net Future Revenue: Management believes that this amount is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the value of future estimated revenue for contracts other than financial guaranty insurance contracts (such as non-financial guaranty insurance contracts and credit derivatives). There is no corresponding GAAP financial measure. This amount represents the present value of estimated future revenue from these contracts, net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium taxes, for contracts without expected economic losses, and is discounted at 6%. Estimated net future revenue may change from period to period due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation.

PVP or Present Value of New Business Production: Management believes that PVP is a useful measure because it enables the evaluation of the value of new business production for the Company by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period as well as premium supplements and additional installment premium on existing contracts as to which the issuer has the right to call the insured obligation but has not exercised such right, whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which management believes GAAP gross written premiums and the net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives (Credit Derivative Realized Gains (Losses)) do not adequately measure. PVP in respect of contracts written in a specified period is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, discounted, in each case, at 6%. Under GAAP, financial guaranty installment premiums are discounted at a risk-free rate. Additionally, under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction. Actual future earned or written premiums and Credit Derivative Realized Gains (Losses) may differ from PVP due to factors including, but not limited to, changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation. 


42

agllogo.jpg







Assured Guaranty Ltd.                        
30 Woodbourne Avenue
Hamilton HM 08
Bermuda
(441) 279-5705
www.assuredguaranty.com


 



Contacts:

Equity and Fixed Income Investors:
Robert Tucker
Senior Managing Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications
(212) 339-0861
rtucker@agltd.com

Michael Walker
Managing Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations
(212) 261-5575
mwalker@agltd.com

Andre Thomas
Managing Director, Equity Investor Relations
(212) 339-3551
athomas@agltd.com

Media:
Ashweeta Durani
Vice President, Corporate Communications
(212) 408-6042
adurani@agltd.com