Reinsurance and Other Monoline Exposures

The Company assumes exposure (Assumed Business) and may cede portions of exposure it has insured (Ceded Business) in exchange for premiums, net of ceding commissions. Substantially all of the Company’s Assumed Business and Ceded Business relates to financial guaranty insurance, except for a modest amount that relates to non-financial guaranty business assumed by AGRO. The Company historically entered into, and with respect to new business originated by AGRO continues to enter into, ceded reinsurance contracts in order to obtain greater business diversification and reduce the net potential loss from large risks.

Assumed and Ceded Financial Guaranty Business

The Company assumes financial guaranty business (Assumed Financial Guaranty Business) from third party insurers, primarily other monoline financial guaranty companies. Under these relationships, the Company assumes a portion of the ceding company’s insured risk in exchange for a portion of the ceding company's premium for the insured risk (typically, net of a ceding commission). The Company, if required, secures its reinsurance obligations to its affiliated and non-affiliated ceding companies, typically by depositing in trust assets with a market value equal to its assumed liabilities calculated on a statutory basis.

The Company’s facultative and treaty agreements are generally subject to termination at the option of the ceding company:


•	if the Company fails to meet certain financial and regulatory criteria and to maintain a specified minimum financial strength rating, or


•	upon certain changes of control of the Company.

Upon termination due to one of the above events, the Company may be required (under some of its reinsurance agreements) to return to the ceding company unearned premiums (net of ceding commissions) and loss reserves calculated on a statutory basis of accounting, attributable to reinsurance assumed pursuant to such agreements after which the Company would be released from liability with respect to the Assumed Financial Guaranty Business.

With respect to a significant portion of the Company's in-force Assumed Financial Guaranty Business, based on AG Re's and AGC's current ratings and subject to the terms of each reinsurance agreement, the third party ceding company may have the right to recapture business it had ceded to AG Re and/or AGC, and in connection therewith, to receive payment from AG Re or AGC of an amount equal to the statutory unearned premium (net of ceding commissions) and statutory loss reserves (if any) associated with that business, plus, in certain cases, an additional required payment. As of March 31, 2018, if each third party insurer ceding business to AG Re and/or AGC had a right to recapture such business, and chose to exercise such right, the aggregate amounts that AG Re and AGC could be required to pay to all such companies would be approximately $44 million and $17 million, respectively.

The Company has ceded financial guaranty business to non-affiliated companies to limit its exposure to risk. Under these relationships, the Company ceded a portion of its insured risk to the reinsurer in exchange for the reinsurer receiving a share of the Company's premiums for the insured risk (typically, net of a ceding commission). The Company remains primarily liable for all risks it directly underwrites and is required to pay all gross claims. It then seeks reimbursement from the reinsurer for its proportionate share of claims. The Company may be exposed to risk for this exposure if it were required to pay the gross claims and not be able to collect ceded claims from an assuming company experiencing financial distress. A number of the financial guaranty insurers to which the Company has ceded par have experienced financial distress and been downgraded by the rating agencies as a result. In addition, state insurance regulators have intervened with respect to some of these insurers. The Company’s ceded contracts generally allow the Company to recapture ceded financial guaranty business after certain triggering events, such as reinsurer downgrades.

The following table presents the components of premiums and losses reported in the condensed consolidated statements of operations and the contribution of the Company's Assumed and Ceded Businesses (both financial guaranty and non-financial guaranty).

Effect of Reinsurance on Statement of Operations



	First Quarter
	2018			2017
	(in millions)
Premiums Written:
Direct	$	73		$	109
Assumed	0			2
Ceded (1)	(11		)	11
Net	$	62		$	122
Premiums Earned:
Direct	$	143		$	167
Assumed	5			6
Ceded	(3		)	(9		)
Net	$	145		$	164
Loss and LAE:
Direct	$	(14	)	$	67
Assumed	(3		)	3
Ceded	(1		)	(11		)
Net	$	(18	)	$	59

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(1) Positive ceded premiums written were due to commutations and changes in expected debt service schedules.

Exposure to Reinsurers and Other Monolines (1)



	As of March 31, 2018			As of December 31, 2017
	(in millions)
Due (To) From:
Assumed premium, net of commissions	$	52		$	53
Ceded premium, net of commissions	(46		)	(42		)
Assumed loss paid	(18		)	(19		)
Assumed expected loss to be paid	(65		)	(71		)
Ceded expected loss to be paid	24			29
Outstanding Exposure:
Financial guaranty
Ceded par outstanding (2)	4,299			4,434
Assumed par outstanding	7,705			8,383
Second-to-pay insured par outstanding (3)	5,954			6,605
Non-financial guaranty exposure (see Note 4)
Ceded	165			159
Assumed	1,010			974

____________________


(1)	The total collateral posted by all non-affiliated reinsurers required to post, or that had agreed to post, collateral as of March 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017 was approximately $105 million and $118 million, respectively.


(2)	Of the total par ceded to unrated or BIG rated reinsurers, $261 million and $296 million, is rated BIG as of March 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017, respectively.

(3)

The par on second-to-pay exposure where the primary insurer and underlying transaction rating are both BIG and/or not rated is $191 million and $204 million as of March 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017, respectively. Second-to-pay insured par outstanding represents transactions the Company has insured that were previously insured by other monoline financial guaranty insurers. The Company underwrites such transactions based on the underlying insured obligation without regard to the primary insurer.

Commutations

The table below summarizes the effect of commutations.

Commutations of Ceded Reinsurance Contracts



	First Quarter
	2018		2017
	(in millions)
Increase (decrease) in net unearned premium reserve	$	4	$	18
Increase (decrease) in net par outstanding	42		1,173
Commutation gains (losses)	1		73

During First Quarter 2017, the Company entered into a commutation agreement to reassume the entire portfolio previously ceded to one of its unaffiliated reinsurers, consisting predominantly (over 97%) of U.S. public finance and international public and project finance exposures.

Excess of Loss Reinsurance Facility

Effective January 1, 2018, AGC, AGM and MAC entered into a $400 million aggregate excess of loss reinsurance facility of which $180 million was placed with an unaffiliated reinsurer. This facility replaces a similar $400 million aggregate excess of loss reinsurance facility, of which $360 million was placed with unaffiliated reinsurers, that AGC, AGM and MAC had entered into effective January 1, 2016 and which terminated on December 31, 2017. The new facility covers losses occurring either from January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2024, or January 1, 2019 through December 31, 2025, at the option of AGC, AGM and MAC. It terminates on January 1, 2020, unless AGC, AGM and MAC choose to extend it. The new facility covers certain U.S. public finance exposures insured or reinsured by AGC, AGM and MAC as of September 30, 2017, excluding exposures that were rated non-investment grade as of December 31, 2017 by Moody’s or S&P or internally by AGC, AGM or MAC and is subject to certain per credit limits. Among the exposures excluded are those associated with the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and its related authorities and public corporations. The new facility attaches when AGC’s, AGM’s and MAC’s net losses (net of AGC’s and AGM's reinsurance (including from affiliates) and net of recoveries) exceed $0.8 billion in the aggregate. The new facility covers a portion of the next $400 million of losses, with the reinsurer assuming $180 million of the $400 million of losses and AGC, AGM and MAC jointly retaining the remaining $220 million. The reinsurer is required to be rated at least AA- or to post collateral sufficient to provide AGM, AGC and MAC with the same reinsurance credit as reinsurers rated AA-. AGM, AGC and MAC are obligated to pay the reinsurer its share of recoveries relating to losses during the coverage period in the covered portfolio. AGC, AGM and MAC paid approximately $3.2 million of premiums in 2018 for the term January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2018 and deposited approximately $3.2 million in cash into a trust account for the benefit of the reinsurer to be used to pay the premiums for 2019. The main differences between the new facility and the prior facility that terminated on December 31, 2017 are the reinsurance attachment point ($0.8 billion versus $1.25 billion), the total reinsurance coverage ($180 million part of $400 million versus $360 million part of $400 million) and the annual premium ($3.2 million versus $9 million).

Reinsurance of Syncora Guarantee Inc.’s Insured Portfolio

On February 2, 2018, AGC entered into an agreement with Syncora Guarantee Inc. (SGI) to reinsure, generally on a 100% quota share basis, substantially all of SGI’s insured portfolio. The transaction also includes the commutation of a book of business ceded to SGI by AGM. The par value of exposures reinsured and commuted will total approximately $14.5 billion. As consideration for the transaction, at closing, SGI will pay $360 million and assign installment premiums estimated to total $55 million in present value to Assured Guaranty. The reinsured portfolio consists predominantly of public finance and infrastructure obligations that meet AGC’s new business underwriting criteria. Additionally, on behalf of SGI, AGC will provide certain administrative services on the assumed portfolio, including surveillance, risk management, and claims processing. The transaction is subject to regulatory approval and other closing conditions, and is expected to close by the end of the second quarter or the beginning of the third quarter of 2018.

Assumed and Ceded Non-Financial Guaranty Business

As described in Note 4, Outstanding Exposure, Non-Financial Guaranty Insurance, the Company, through AGRO, assumes non-financial guaranty business from third party insurers (Assumed Non-Financial Guaranty Business). It also retrocedes some of this business to third party reinsurers. The downgrade of AGRO’s financial strength rating by S&P below “A” would require AGRO to post, as of March 31, 2018, an estimated $4 million of collateral in respect of certain of its Assumed Non-Financial Guaranty Business. A further downgrade of AGRO’s S&P rating below A- would give the company ceding such business the right to recapture the business for AGRO’s collateral amount, and, if also accompanied by a downgrade of AGRO's financial strength rating by A.M. Best Company, Inc. below A-, would also require AGRO to post, as of March 31, 2018, an estimated $9 million of collateral in respect of a different portion of AGRO’s Assumed Non-Financial Guaranty Business. AGRO’s ceded contracts generally have equivalent provisions requiring the assuming reinsurer to post collateral and/or allowing AGRO to recapture the ceded business upon certain triggering events, such as reinsurer rating downgrades.