10-Q 1 gaapago-09x30x2017x10q.htm 10-Q ASSURED GUARANTY Document

 
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
____________________________________________________________________________
FORM 10-Q
ý
 
QUARTERLY REPORT UNDER SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
For the Quarterly Period Ended September 30, 2017
Or
o
 
TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
For the transition Period from              to               
Commission File No. 001-32141 
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) 
Bermuda
 
98-0429991
(State or other jurisdiction
 
(I.R.S. employer
of incorporation)
 
identification no.)
 
30 Woodbourne Avenue
Hamilton HM 08
Bermuda
(Address of principal executive offices)
(441) 279-5700
(Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days.   Yes x No o
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically and posted on its corporate Web site, if any, every Interactive Data File required to be submitted and posted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T (§232.405 of this chapter) during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to submit and post such files).   Yes x No o
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, a smaller reporting company or an emerging growth company. See definition of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer,” “smaller reporting company,” and "emerging growth company" in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.
Large accelerated filer x
 
                 Accelerated filer o
  Non-accelerated filer o
 
Smaller reporting company o
(Do not check if a smaller reporting company)
 
Emerging growth company o
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. o
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act).
Yes o No x
The number of registrant’s Common Shares ($0.01 par value) outstanding as of November 1, 2017 was 117,453,849 (includes 50,225 unvested restricted shares).
 




ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

INDEX TO FORM 10-Q
 
 
 
Page
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 



PART I.    FINANCIAL INFORMATION
 
ITEM 1.
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited)
 
(dollars in millions except per share and share amounts) 

 
As of
September 30, 2017
 
As of
December 31, 2016
Assets
 

 
 

Investment portfolio:
 

 
 

Fixed-maturity securities, available-for-sale, at fair value (amortized cost of $10,045 and $9,974)
$
10,546

 
$
10,233

Short-term investments, at fair value
949

 
590

Other invested assets
96

 
162

Total investment portfolio
11,591

 
10,985

Cash
72

 
118

Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable
922

 
576

Ceded unearned premium reserve
108

 
206

Deferred acquisition costs
105

 
106

Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses
39

 
80

Salvage and subrogation recoverable
497

 
365

Credit derivative assets
3

 
13

Deferred tax asset, net
135

 
497

Current income tax receivable
72

 
12

Financial guaranty variable interest entities’ assets, at fair value
707

 
876

Other assets
398

 
317

Total assets
$
14,649

 
$
14,151

Liabilities and shareholders’ equity
 

 
 

Unearned premium reserve
$
3,597

 
$
3,511

Loss and loss adjustment expense reserve
1,326

 
1,127

Reinsurance balances payable, net
45

 
64

Long-term debt
1,292

 
1,306

Credit derivative liabilities
305

 
402

Financial guaranty variable interest entities’ liabilities with recourse, at fair value
657

 
807

Financial guaranty variable interest entities’ liabilities without recourse, at fair value
111

 
151

Other liabilities
438

 
279

Total liabilities
7,771

 
7,647

Commitments and contingencies (See Note 14)

 

Common stock ($0.01 par value, 500,000,000 shares authorized; 117,937,242 and 127,988,230 shares issued and outstanding)
1

 
1

Additional paid-in capital
637

 
1,060

Retained earnings
5,913

 
5,289

Accumulated other comprehensive income, net of tax of $148 and $70
326

 
149

Deferred equity compensation
1

 
5

Total shareholders’ equity
6,878

 
6,504

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity
$
14,649

 
$
14,151


The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements.

1


Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited)
 
(dollars in millions except per share amounts)

 
Three Months Ended September 30,
 
Nine Months Ended September 30,
 
2017
 
2016
 
2017
 
2016
Revenues
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
$
186

 
$
231

 
$
512

 
$
628

Net investment income
99

 
94

 
322

 
291

Net realized investment gains (losses):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other-than-temporary impairment losses
(20
)
 
(4
)
 
(23
)
 
(32
)
Less: portion of other-than-temporary impairment loss recognized in other comprehensive income
(7
)
 
1

 
6

 
(6
)
Net impairment loss
(13
)
 
(5
)
 
(29
)
 
(26
)
Other net realized investment gains (losses)
20

 
3

 
83

 
21

Net realized investment gains (losses)
7

 
(2
)
 
54

 
(5
)
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements
(1
)
 
15

 
19

 
47

Net unrealized gains (losses)
59

 
6

 
87

 
(23
)
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
58

 
21

 
106

 
24

Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities
(4
)
 
(23
)
 
(4
)
 
(50
)
Fair value gains (losses) on financial guaranty variable interest entities
3

 
(11
)
 
25

 
11

Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationships

 
259

 
58

 
259

Other income (loss)
274

 
(3
)
 
385

 
49

Total revenues
623

 
566

 
1,458

 
1,207

Expenses
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and loss adjustment expenses
223

 
(9
)
 
354

 
183

Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
5

 
4

 
13

 
13

Interest expense
24

 
26

 
73

 
77

Other operating expenses
58

 
65

 
183

 
188

Total expenses
310

 
86

 
623

 
461

Income (loss) before income taxes
313

 
480

 
835

 
746

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current
(148
)
 
18

 
(102
)
 
80

Deferred
253

 
(17
)
 
259

 
(18
)
Total provision (benefit) for income taxes
105

 
1

 
157

 
62

Net income (loss)
$
208

 
$
479

 
$
678

 
$
684

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Earnings per share:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Basic
$
1.75

 
$
3.63

 
$
5.56

 
$
5.10

Diluted
$
1.72

 
$
3.60

 
$
5.48

 
$
5.06

Dividends per share
$
0.1425

 
$
0.13

 
$
0.4275

 
$
0.39

 
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements.

2


Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (unaudited)
 
(in millions)
 
 
Three Months Ended September 30,
 
Nine Months Ended September 30,
 
2017
 
2016
 
2017
 
2016
Net income (loss)
$
208

 
$
479

 
$
678

 
$
684

Unrealized holding gains (losses) arising during the period on:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Investments with no other-than-temporary impairment, net of tax provision (benefit) of $10, $(14), $63 and $48
27

 
(33
)
 
133

 
146

Investments with other-than-temporary impairment, net of tax provision (benefit) of $(7), $8, $44 and $(5)
(15
)
 
13

 
81

 
(10
)
Unrealized holding gains (losses) arising during the period, net of tax
12

 
(20
)
 
214

 
136

Less: reclassification adjustment for gains (losses) included in net income (loss), net of tax provision (benefit) of $3, $(1), $29 and $(1)
4

 
0

 
52

 
(1
)
Change in net unrealized gains (losses) on investments
8

 
(20
)
 
162

 
137

Other, net of tax provision
3

 
(5
)
 
15

 
(16
)
Other comprehensive income (loss)
$
11

 
$
(25
)
 
$
177

 
$
121

Comprehensive income (loss)
$
219

 
$
454

 
$
855

 
$
805

 
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements.

3


Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Statement of Shareholders’ Equity (unaudited)
 
For the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2017
 
(dollars in millions, except share data)

 
Common Shares Outstanding
 
 
Common 
Stock
Par Value
 
Additional
Paid-in
Capital
 
Retained Earnings
 
Accumulated
Other
Comprehensive Income
 
Deferred
Equity Compensation
 
Total
Shareholders’ Equity
Balance at
December 31, 2016
127,988,230

 
 
$
1

 
$
1,060

 
$
5,289

 
$
149

 
$
5

 
$
6,504

Net income

 
 

 

 
678

 

 

 
678

Dividends ($0.4275 per share)

 
 

 

 
(53
)
 

 

 
(53
)
Common stock repurchases
(10,734,653
)
 
 
0

 
(431
)
 

 

 

 
(431
)
Share-based compensation and other
683,665

 
 
0

 
8

 

 

 
(4
)
 
4

Other comprehensive income

 
 

 

 

 
177

 

 
177

Other

 
 

 

 
(1
)
 

 

 
(1
)
Balance at
September 30, 2017
117,937,242

 
 
$
1

 
$
637

 
$
5,913

 
$
326

 
$
1

 
$
6,878

 
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements.

4


Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (unaudited)
 
(in millions)
 
 
Nine Months Ended September 30,
 
2017
 
2016
Net cash flows provided by (used in) operating activities
$
354

 
$
(189
)
Investing activities
 

 
 

Fixed-maturity securities:
 

 
 

Purchases
(1,615
)
 
(1,028
)
Sales
1,128

 
877

Maturities
689

 
861

Net sales (purchases) of short-term investments
(240
)
 
80

Net proceeds from paydowns on financial guaranty variable interest entities’ assets
117

 
590

Acquisition of MBIA UK, net of cash acquired (see Note 2)
95

 

Acquisition of CIFG, net of cash acquired

 
(435
)
Other
58

 
(12
)
Net cash flows provided by (used in) investing activities
232

 
933

Financing activities
 

 
 

Dividends paid
(53
)

(52
)
Repurchases of common stock
(431
)

(190
)
Repurchases of common stock to pay withholding taxes
(13
)
 
(2
)
Net paydowns of financial guaranty variable interest entities’ liabilities
(124
)
 
(567
)
Repayment/ extinguishment of long-term debt
(29
)
 
(2
)
Proceeds from option exercises
5

 
6

Net cash flows provided by (used in) financing activities
(645
)
 
(807
)
Effect of foreign exchange rate changes
4

 
(4
)
Increase (decrease) in cash and restricted cash
(55
)
 
(67
)
Cash and restricted cash at beginning of period (see Note 10)
127

 
166

Cash and restricted cash at end of period (see Note 10)
$
72

 
$
99

Supplemental cash flow information
 

 
 

Cash paid (received) during the period for:
 

 
 

Income taxes
$
3

 
$
2

Interest
$
53

 
$
55


The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements.

5


Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (unaudited)
 
September 30, 2017

1.
Business and Basis of Presentation
 
Business
 
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGL and, together with its subsidiaries, Assured Guaranty or the Company) is a Bermuda-based holding company that provides, through its operating subsidiaries, credit protection products to the United States (U.S.) and international public finance (including infrastructure) and structured finance markets. The Company applies its credit underwriting judgment, risk management skills and capital markets experience primarily to offer financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. If an obligor defaults on a scheduled payment due on an obligation, including a scheduled principal or interest payment (debt service), the Company is required under its unconditional and irrevocable financial guaranty to pay the amount of the shortfall to the holder of the obligation. The Company markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities as well as to investors in such obligations. The Company guarantees obligations issued principally in the U.S. and the United Kingdom (U.K.), and also guarantees obligations issued in other countries and regions, including Australia and Western Europe. The Company also provides other forms of insurance that are in line with its risk profile and benefit from its underwriting experience.

In the past, the Company sold credit protection by issuing policies that guaranteed payment obligations under credit derivatives, primarily credit default swaps (CDS). Contracts accounted for as credit derivatives are generally structured such that the circumstances giving rise to the Company’s obligation to make loss payments are similar to those for financial guaranty insurance contracts. The Company’s credit derivative transactions are governed by International Swaps and Derivative Association, Inc. (ISDA) documentation. The Company has not entered into any new CDS in order to sell credit protection in the U.S. since the beginning of 2009, when regulatory guidelines were issued that limited the terms under which such protection could be sold. The capital and margin requirements applicable under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act also contributed to the Company not entering into such new CDS in the U.S. since 2009. The Company actively pursues opportunities to terminate existing CDS, which terminations have the effect of reducing future fair value volatility in income and/or reducing rating agency capital charges.

Basis of Presentation
 
The unaudited interim consolidated financial statements have been prepared in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP) and, in the opinion of management, reflect all adjustments that are of a normal recurring nature, necessary for a fair statement of the financial condition, results of operations and cash flows of the Company and its consolidated variable interest entities (VIEs) for the periods presented. The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities as of the date of the financial statements and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting period. Actual results could differ from those estimates. These unaudited interim consolidated financial statements are as of September 30, 2017 and cover the three-month period ended September 30, 2017 (Third Quarter 2017), the three-month period ended September 30, 2016 (Third Quarter 2016), the nine-month period ended September 30, 2017 (Nine Months 2017) and the nine-month period ended September 30, 2016 (Nine Months 2016). Certain financial information that is normally included in annual financial statements prepared in accordance with GAAP, but is not required for interim reporting purposes, has been condensed or omitted. The year-end balance sheet data was derived from audited financial statements, except Note 18, Subsidiary Information, which reflects transfers of businesses between entities within the consolidated group that occurred in the current reporting period consistently for all prior periods presented.
 
The unaudited interim consolidated financial statements include the accounts of AGL, its direct and indirect subsidiaries, and its consolidated VIEs. Intercompany accounts and transactions between and among all consolidated entities have been eliminated. Certain prior year balances have been reclassified to conform to the current year's presentation.
 
These unaudited interim consolidated financial statements should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements included in AGL’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC).

6



The Company's principal insurance company subsidiaries are:

Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. (AGM), domiciled in New York;
Municipal Assurance Corp. (MAC), domiciled in New York;
Assured Guaranty Corp. (AGC), domiciled in Maryland;
Assured Guaranty (Europe) plc (AGE), organized in the U.K.; and
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) and Assured Guaranty Re Overseas Ltd. (AGRO), domiciled in Bermuda.

The Company’s organizational structure includes various holding companies, two of which - Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. (AGUS) and AGMH - have public debt outstanding. Please refer to Note 15, Long-Term Debt and Credit Facilities and Note 18, Subsidiary Information.

The Company is actively working to combine the operations of its European subsidiaries, AGE, Assured Guaranty (UK) plc (AGUK), Assured Guaranty (London) plc (AGLN) and CIFG Europe S.A. (CIFGE), through a multi-step transaction, which ultimately is expected to result in AGUK, AGLN and CIFGE transferring their insurance portfolios to and merging with and into AGE. As a preparatory step for the merger, AGE, AGUK and AGLN were re-registered as public limited companies on June 1, 2017. As a further preparatory step, AGUK, AGLN and CIFGE were sold by AGC to AGM and then contributed by AGM to AGE on June 26, 2017. While the Company and its European subsidiaries have received certain regulatory approvals, the combination is subject to further regulatory and court approvals. As a result, the Company cannot predict whether, or when, such combination will be completed.

Adopted Accounting Standards

Statement of Cash Flows

In November 2016, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2016-18, Statement of Cash Flows (Topic 230): Restricted Cash (a consensus of the Emerging Issues Task Force), which addresses the presentation of changes in restricted cash and restricted cash equivalents in the statement of cash flows with the objective of reducing the existing diversity in practice. Under the ASU, entities are required to show the changes in the total of cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and restricted cash equivalents in the statement of cash flows.  As a result, entities will no longer present transfers between cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash and restricted cash equivalents in the statement of cash flows.  When cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and restricted cash equivalents are presented in more than one line item on the balance sheet, the ASU requires a reconciliation be presented either on the face of the statement of cash flows or in the notes to the financial statements showing the totals in the statement of cash flows to the related captions in the balance sheet. The ASU was adopted on January 1, 2017 and was applied retrospectively. The required reconciliation is shown in Note 10, Investments and Cash.

In August 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-15, Statement of Cash Flows (Topic 230): Classification of Certain Cash Receipts and Cash Payments (a consensus of the Emerging Issues Task Force), which addresses eight specific cash flow issues with the objective of reducing the existing diversity in practice. The ASU was adopted on January 1, 2017 and did not have an effect on the Company’s consolidated statements of cash flows for the periods presented.

Share-Based Payments

In March 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-09, Compensation - Stock Compensation (Topic 718) - Improvements to Employee Share-Based Payment, which simplifies several aspects of the accounting for employee share-based payment transactions, including the accounting for income taxes, forfeitures, and statutory tax withholding requirements, as well as classification in the statement of cash flows.  The new guidance requires all income tax effects of awards to be recognized in the income statement when the awards vest or are settled. It also allows an employer to repurchase more of an employee’s shares than it previously could for tax withholding purposes without triggering liability accounting and to make a policy election to account for forfeitures as they occur. The ASU was adopted January 1, 2017 with no material effect on the consolidated financial statements.


7


Future Application of Accounting Standards

Income Taxes

In October 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-16, Income Taxes (Topic 740) - Intra-Entity Transfers of Assets Other Than Inventory, which removes the current prohibition against immediate recognition of the current and deferred income tax effects of intra-entity transfers of assets other than inventory.  Under the ASU, the selling (transferring) entity is required to recognize a current income tax expense or benefit upon transfer of the asset.  Similarly, the purchasing (receiving) entity is required to recognize a deferred tax asset or deferred tax liability, as well as the related deferred tax benefit or expense, upon receipt of the asset.  The ASU is effective for annual periods beginning after December 15, 2017, including interim periods within those annual periods, and early adoption is permitted.  The ASU’s amendments are to be applied on a modified retrospective basis recognizing the effects in retained earnings as of the beginning of the year of adoption.  The Company does not expect this ASU to have a material effect on its consolidated financial statements.

Financial Instruments
    
In January 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-01, Financial Instruments - Overall (Subtopic 825-10) - Recognition and Measurement of Financial Assets and Financial Liabilities.  The amendments in this ASU are intended to make targeted improvements to GAAP by addressing certain aspects of recognition, measurement, presentation, and disclosure of financial instruments.

Under the ASU, certain equity securities will need to be accounted for at fair value with changes in fair value recognized through net income instead of other comprehensive income (OCI). The Company does not expect that the amendment related to certain equity securities will have a material effect on its consolidated financial statements. 

Another amendment pertains to liabilities that an entity has elected to measure at fair value in accordance with the fair value option for financial instruments. For these liabilities, the portion of fair value change related to instrument specific credit risk will be separately presented in OCI as opposed to the income statement. The Company elected the fair value option to account for its consolidated FG VIEs. The Company is evaluating the effect that the ASU will have on its consolidated FG VIEs. 
           
The ASU is effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2017, including interim periods within those fiscal years. Entities will be required to record a cumulative-effect adjustment to the statement of financial position as of the beginning of the fiscal year in which the guidance is adopted. 

Premium Amortization on Purchased Callable Debt Securities

In March 2017, the FASB issued ASU 2017-08, Receivables-Nonrefundable Fees and Other Costs (Topic 310-20) - Premium Amortization on Purchased Callable Debt Securities.  This ASU shortens the amortization period for the premium on certain purchased callable debt securities to the earliest call date.  This ASU has no effect on the accounting for purchased callable debt securities held at a discount.  ASU 2017-08 is to be applied using a modified retrospective approach through a cumulative-effect adjustment directly to retained earnings as of the beginning of the period of adoption.  The ASU is effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2018, including interim periods within those fiscal years.  Early adoption is permitted.  The Company does not expect this ASU to have a material effect on its consolidated financial statements.

Leases
    
In February 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-02, Leases (Topic 842). This ASU requires lessees to present right-of-use assets and lease liabilities on the balance sheet. ASU 2016-02 is to be applied using a modified retrospective approach at the beginning of the earliest comparative period in the financial statements. The ASU is effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2018, including interim periods within those fiscal years. Early adoption is permitted. The Company is evaluating the effect that this ASU will have on its consolidated financial statements.


8


Credit Losses on Financial Instruments

In June 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-13, Financial Instruments - Credit Losses (Topic 326): Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments.  The amendments in this ASU are intended to improve financial reporting by requiring timelier recording of credit losses on loans and other financial instruments held by financial institutions and other organizations. The ASU requires the measurement of all expected credit losses for financial assets held at the reporting date based on historical experience, current conditions, and reasonable and supportable forecasts. Financial institutions will use forward-looking information to better inform their credit loss estimates as a result of the ASU. While many of the loss estimation techniques applied today will still be permitted, the inputs to those techniques will change to reflect the full amount of expected credit losses. The ASU requires enhanced disclosures to help investors and other financial statement users to better understand significant estimates and judgments used in estimating credit losses, as well as credit quality and underwriting standards of an organization’s portfolio. 

In addition, the ASU amends the accounting for credit losses on available-for-sale securities and purchased financial assets with credit deterioration. The ASU also eliminates the concept of “other than temporary” from the impairment model for certain available-for-sale securities. Accordingly, the ASU states that an entity must use an allowance approach, must limit the allowance to an amount by which the security’s fair value is less than its amortized cost basis, may not consider the length of time fair value has been less than amortized cost, and may not consider recoveries in fair value after the balance sheet date when assessing whether a credit loss exists. For purchased financial assets with credit deterioration, the ASU requires an entity’s method for measuring credit losses to be consistent with its method for measuring expected losses for originated and purchased non-credit-deteriorated assets.

The ASU is effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2019, including interim periods within those fiscal years. For debt securities classified as available-for-sale, entities will be required to record a cumulative-effect adjustment to the statement of financial position as of the beginning of the first reporting period in which the guidance is adopted.  The changes to the impairment model for available-for-sale securities and changes to purchased financial assets with credit deterioration are to be applied prospectively.  The Company is evaluating the effect that this ASU will have on its consolidated financial statements.

2.
Acquisitions

MBIA UK Insurance Limited

On January 10, 2017 (the MBIA UK Acquisition Date), AGC completed its acquisition of MBIA UK Insurance Limited (MBIA UK), the U.K. operating subsidiary of MBIA Insurance Corporation (MBIA) (the MBIA UK Acquisition). As consideration for the outstanding shares of MBIA UK plus $23 million in cash, AGC exchanged all its holdings of notes issued in the Zohar II 2005-1 transaction (Zohar II Notes), which were insured by MBIA. AGC’s Zohar II Notes had total outstanding principal of approximately $347 million and fair value of $334 million as of the MBIA UK Acquisition Date. The MBIA UK Acquisition added approximately $12 billion of net par insured on January 10, 2017.

MBIA UK was renamed Assured Guaranty (London) Ltd. and on June 1, 2017, was re-registered as a public limited company (plc). Further, AGLN was sold by AGC to AGM and then contributed by AGM to AGE on June 26, 2017. Please refer to Note 1, Business and Basis of Presentation for additional information on the Company's European subsidiaries combination.

The MBIA UK Acquisition was accounted for under the acquisition method of accounting which requires that the assets and liabilities acquired be recorded at fair value. The Company exercised significant judgment to determine the fair value of the assets it acquired and liabilities it assumed in the MBIA UK Acquisition. The most significant of these determinations related to the valuation of MBIA UK's financial guaranty insurance contracts. On an aggregate basis, MBIA UK's contractual premiums for financial guaranty insurance contracts were less than the premiums a market participant of similar credit quality would demand to acquire those contracts on the MBIA UK Acquisition Date, particularly for below-investment-grade (BIG) transactions, resulting in a significant amount of the purchase price being allocated to these contracts. For information on the methodology used to measure the fair value of assets acquired and liabilities assumed in the MBIA UK Acquisition, please refer to Note 7, Fair Value Measurement.

The fair value of the Company's stand-ready obligation on the MBIA UK Acquisition Date is recorded in unearned premium reserve. After the MBIA UK Acquisition Date, loss reserves and loss and loss adjustment expenses (LAE) will be recorded when the expected losses for each contract exceeds the remaining unearned premium reserve, in accordance with the

9


Company's accounting policy described in the Annual Report on Form 10-K. The expected losses acquired by the Company as part of the MBIA UK Acquisition are included in Note 5, Expected Losses to be Paid.

The excess of the fair value of net assets acquired over the consideration transferred was recorded as a bargain purchase gain in "bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationships" in net income. In addition, the Company and MBIA UK had pre-existing reinsurance relationships, which were also effectively settled at fair value on the MBIA UK Acquisition Date. The gain on settlement of these pre-existing reinsurance relationships represents the net difference between the historical assumed balances that were recorded by the Company and the fair value of ceded balances acquired from MBIA UK. The Company believes the bargain purchase gain resulted from MBIA's strategy to address its insurance obligations with regards to the Zohar II Notes, the issuers of which MBIA did not expect would have sufficient funds to repay such notes in full on the scheduled maturity date of such notes in January 2017.

The following table shows the net effect of the MBIA UK Acquisition, including the effects of the settlement of pre-existing relationships.

 
Fair Value of Net Assets Acquired, before Settlement of Pre-existing Relationships
 
Net effect of Settlement of Pre-existing Relationships
 
Net Effect of
MBIA UK Acquisition
 
(in millions)
Purchase price (1)
$
334

 
$

 
$
334

 
 
 
 
 
 
Identifiable assets acquired:
 
 
 
 
 
Investments
459

 

 
459

Cash
72

 

 
72

Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable
274

 
(4
)
 
270

Other assets
16

 
(6
)
 
10

Total assets
821

 
(10
)
 
811

 
 

 
 
 
 
Liabilities assumed:
 
 
 
 
 
Unearned premium reserves
389

 
(6
)
 
383

Current tax payable
25

 

 
25

Other liabilities
4

 
(5
)
 
(1
)
Total liabilities
418

 
(11
)
 
407

Net assets of MBIA UK
403

 
1

 
404

Cash acquired from MBIA Holdings
23

 

 
23

Deferred tax liability
(36
)
 

 
(36
)
Net asset effect of MBIA UK Acquisition
390

 
1

 
391

Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationships resulting from MBIA UK Acquisition, after-tax
56

 
1

 
57

Deferred tax

 
1

 
1

Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationships resulting from MBIA UK Acquisition, pre-tax
$
56

 
$
2

 
$
58

_____________________
(1)
The purchase price of $334 million was allocated as follows: (1) $329 million for the purchase of net assets of $385 million, and (2) the settlement of pre-existing relationships between MBIA UK and Assured Guaranty at a fair value of $5 million.
    
Revenue and net income related to MBIA UK from the MBIA UK Acquisition Date through September 30, 2017 included in the consolidated statement of operations were approximately $176 million and $129 million, respectively, including the bargain purchase gain, settlement of pre-existing relationships, quarterly activity and realized gain on the disposition of AGC's Zohar II Notes. For Nine Months 2017, the Company recognized transaction expenses related to the MBIA UK Acquisition of $7 million comprising primarily legal and financial advisors fees.


10


Unaudited Pro Forma Results of Operations

The following unaudited pro forma information presents the combined results of operations of Assured Guaranty and MBIA UK as if the acquisition had been completed on January 1, 2016, as required under GAAP. The pro forma accounts include the estimated historical results of the Company and MBIA UK and pro forma adjustments primarily comprising the earning of the unearned premium reserve and the expected losses that would be recognized in net income for each prior period presented, as well as the accounting for bargain purchase gain, settlement of pre-existing relationships, the realized gain on the disposition of the Zohar II Notes and MBIA UK acquisition related expenses, all net of tax at the applicable statutory rate.

The unaudited pro forma combined financial information is presented for illustrative purposes only and does not indicate the financial results of the combined company had the companies actually been combined as of January 1, 2016, nor is it indicative of the results of operations in future periods. The Company did not include any pro forma combined financial information for 2017 as substantially all of MBIA UK's results of operations for 2017 are included in Nine Months 2017 consolidated statements of operations.

Unaudited Pro Forma Results of Operations

 
 
Nine Months 2016
 
 
(in millions, except per share amounts)
Pro forma revenues
 
$
1,358

Pro forma net income
 
796

Pro forma earnings per share (EPS):
 
 
  Basic
 
5.93

  Diluted
 
5.89



CIFG Holding Inc.
               
On July 1, 2016, AGC acquired all of the issued and outstanding capital stock of CIFG Holding Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, CIFGH), the parent of financial guaranty insurer CIFG Assurance North America, Inc. (CIFGNA) (the CIFG Acquisition), for $450.6 million in cash.  AGUS previously owned 1.6% of the outstanding shares of CIFGH, for which it received $7.1 million in consideration from AGC, resulting in a net consolidated purchase price of $443 million. AGC merged CIFGNA with and into AGC, with AGC as the surviving company, on July 5, 2016. The CIFG Acquisition added $4.2 billion of net par insured on July 1, 2016.

Please refer to Note 2, Acquisitions, in Part II, Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data” of AGL’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016 for additional information on the acquisition of CIFG Holding Inc., including the purchase price and the allocation of the purchase price to net assets acquired and the resulting bargain purchase gain and the loss on settlement of pre-existing relationships.

3.    Ratings
 
The financial strength ratings (or similar ratings) for the Company’s insurance companies, along with the date of the most recent rating action (or confirmation) by the rating agency, are shown in the table below. Ratings are subject to continuous rating agency review and revision or withdrawal at any time. In addition, the Company periodically assesses the value of each rating assigned to each of its companies, and as a result of such assessment may request that a rating agency add or drop a rating from certain of its companies.


11


 
S&P Global Ratings, a division of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC
 
Kroll Bond Rating
Agency
 
Moody’s Investors Service, Inc.
 
A.M. Best Company,
Inc.
AGM
AA (stable) (6/26/17)
 
AA+ (stable) (12/14/16)
 
A2 (stable) (8/8/16)
 
AGC
AA (stable) (6/26/17)
 
AA (stable) (9/20/16)
 
(1)
 
MAC
AA (stable) (6/26/17)
 
AA+ (stable) (7/14/17)
 
 
AG Re
AA (stable) (6/26/17)
 
 
 
AGRO
AA (stable) (6/26/17)
 
 
 
A+ (stable) (6/15/17)
AGE
AA (stable) (6/26/17)
 
 
A2 (stable) (8/8/16)
 
AGUK
AA (stable) (6/26/17)
 
 
(1)
 
AGLN
BB (positive) (1/12/17)
 
 
(2)
 
CIFGE
 
 
 
____________________
(1)
AGC requested that Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. (Moody's) withdraw its financial strength ratings of AGC and AGUK in January 2017, but Moody's denied that request. Moody’s continues to rate AGC A3 (stable) and AGUK A3; Moody's put AGUK on review for upgrade on June 27, 2017, following its transfer to AGM.

(2)
Assured Guaranty did not request that Moody's rate AGLN. Moody's continues to rate AGLN, and upgraded its rating to Baa2 (stable) on January 13, 2017, following its acquisition by AGC, and then to Baa1 on review for further upgrade on June 27, 2017, following its transfer to AGM.

There can be no assurance that any of the rating agencies will not take negative action on their financial strength ratings of AGL's insurance subsidiaries in the future.
    
For a discussion of the effects of rating actions on the Company, please refer to Note 6, Contracts Accounted for as Insurance, and Note 13, Reinsurance and Other Monoline Exposures.

4.
Outstanding Exposure
 
The Company’s financial guaranty contracts are written in either insurance or credit derivative form, but collectively are considered financial guaranty contracts. The Company seeks to limit its exposure to losses by underwriting obligations that it views as investment grade at inception, although, as part of its loss mitigation strategy for existing troubled credits, it may underwrite new issuances that it views as BIG. The Company diversifies its insured portfolio across asset classes and, in the structured finance portfolio, requires rigorous subordination or collateralization requirements. Reinsurance may be used in order to reduce net exposure to certain insured transactions.

     Public finance obligations insured by the Company consist primarily of general obligation bonds supported by the taxing powers of U.S. state or municipal governmental authorities, as well as tax-supported bonds, revenue bonds and other obligations supported by covenants from state or municipal governmental authorities or other municipal obligors to impose and collect fees and charges for public services or specific infrastructure projects. The Company also includes within public finance obligations those obligations backed by the cash flow from leases or other revenues from projects serving substantial public purposes, including utilities, toll roads, health care facilities and government office buildings. The Company also includes within public finance similar obligations issued by territorial and non-U.S. sovereign and sub-sovereign issuers and governmental authorities.

Structured finance obligations insured by the Company are generally issued by special purpose entities, including VIEs, and backed by pools of assets having an ascertainable cash flow or market value or other specialized financial obligations. Some of these VIEs are consolidated as described in Note 9, Consolidated Variable Interest Entities. Unless otherwise specified, the outstanding par and debt service amounts presented in this note include outstanding exposures on VIEs whether or not they are consolidated.


12


Surveillance Categories
 
The Company segregates its insured portfolio into investment grade and BIG surveillance categories to facilitate the appropriate allocation of resources to monitoring and loss mitigation efforts and to aid in establishing the appropriate cycle for periodic review for each exposure. BIG exposures include all exposures with internal credit ratings below BBB-. The Company’s internal credit ratings are based on internal assessments of the likelihood of default and loss severity in the event of default. Internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by the rating agencies and are generally reflective of an approach similar to that employed by the rating agencies, except that the Company's internal credit ratings focus on future performance rather than lifetime performance.
 
The Company monitors its insured portfolio and refreshes its internal credit ratings on individual credits in quarterly, semi-annual or annual cycles based on the Company’s view of the credit’s quality, loss potential, volatility and sector. Ratings on credits in sectors identified as under the most stress or with the most potential volatility are reviewed every quarter. The Company’s credit ratings on assumed credits are based on the Company’s reviews of low-rated credits or credits in volatile sectors, unless such information is not available, in which case, the ceding company’s credit ratings of the transactions are used.
 
Credits identified as BIG are subjected to further review to determine the probability of a loss. Please refer to Note 5, Expected Loss to be Paid, for additional information. Surveillance personnel then assign each BIG transaction to the appropriate BIG surveillance category based upon whether a future loss is expected and whether a claim has been paid. For surveillance purposes, the Company calculates present value using a discount rate of 4% or 5% depending on the insurance subsidiary. (Risk-free rates are used for calculating the expected loss for financial statement measurement purposes.)
 
More extensive monitoring and intervention is employed for all BIG surveillance categories, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. The Company expects “future losses” on a transaction when the Company believes there is at least a 50% chance that, on a present value basis, it will pay more claims on that transaction in the future than it will have reimbursed. The three BIG categories are:
 
BIG Category 1: Below-investment-grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make future losses possible, but for which none are currently expected.
 
BIG Category 2: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims, which are claims that the Company expects to be reimbursed within one year) have yet been paid.
 
BIG Category 3: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid.

Components of Outstanding Exposure

Unless otherwise noted, ratings disclosed herein on the Company's insured portfolio reflect its internal ratings. The Company classifies those portions of risks benefiting from reimbursement obligations collateralized by eligible assets held in trust in acceptable reimbursement structures as the higher of 'AA' or their current internal rating.

The Company purchases securities that it has insured, and for which it has expected losses to be paid, in order to
mitigate the economic effect of insured losses (loss mitigation securities). The Company excludes amounts attributable to loss mitigation securities (unless otherwise indicated) from par and debt service outstanding, which amounts are included in the investment portfolio, because it manages such securities as investments and not insurance exposure. As of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, the Company excluded $2.0 billion and $2.1 billion, respectively, of net par related to loss mitigation securities (which are mostly BIG), and other loss mitigation strategies. The following table presents the gross and net debt service for financial guaranty contracts.


13


Financial Guaranty
Debt Service Outstanding

 
Gross Debt Service
Outstanding
 
Net Debt Service
Outstanding
 
September 30,
2017
 
December 31,
2016
 
September 30,
2017
 
December 31,
2016
 
(in millions)
Public finance
$
407,539

 
$
425,849

 
$
399,347

 
$
409,447

Structured finance
17,464

 
29,151

 
17,377

 
28,088

Total financial guaranty
$
425,003

 
$
455,000

 
$
416,724

 
$
437,535


    
In addition to amounts shown in the tables above, the Company had outstanding commitments to provide guaranties of $43 million as of the date of this filing. The commitments are contingent on the satisfaction of all conditions set forth in them and may expire unused or be canceled at the counterparty’s request. Therefore, the total commitment amount does not necessarily reflect actual future guaranteed amounts.

Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating
As of September 30, 2017

 
 
Public Finance
U.S.
 
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
 
Structured Finance
U.S
 
Structured Finance
Non-U.S
 
Total
Rating
Category
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
 
(dollars in millions)
AAA
 
$
915

 
0.4
%
 
$
2,523

 
5.9
%
 
$
2,333

 
17.8
%
 
$
419

 
25.0
%
 
$
6,190

 
2.2
%
AA
 
33,614

 
15.4

 
301

 
0.7

 
4,853

 
36.9

 
76

 
4.5

 
38,844

 
14.1

A
 
124,332

 
57.0

 
13,657

 
32.0

 
1,778

 
13.5

 
268

 
15.9

 
140,035

 
50.8

BBB
 
52,021

 
23.8

 
23,965

 
56.1

 
724

 
5.5

 
762

 
45.3

 
77,472

 
28.1

BIG
 
7,334

 
3.4

 
2,281

 
5.3

 
3,454

 
26.3

 
157

 
9.3

 
13,226

 
4.8

Total net par outstanding (1)
 
$
218,216

 
100.0
%

$
42,727


100.0
%

$
13,142


100.0
%

$
1,682


100.0
%

$
275,767


100.0
%
_____________________
(1)
The September 30, 2017 amounts include $13.0 billion of net par from the MBIA UK Acquisition. Please refer to Note 13, Reinsurance and Other Monoline Exposures, for the effect of commutations on net par outstanding.


Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating
As of December 31, 2016 

 
 
Public Finance
U.S.
 
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
 
Structured Finance
U.S
 
Structured Finance
Non-U.S
 
Total
Rating
Category
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
 
(dollars in millions)
AAA
 
$
2,066

 
0.8
%
 
$
2,221

 
8.4
%
 
$
9,757

 
44.2
%
 
$
1,447

 
47.0
%
 
$
15,491

 
5.2
%
AA
 
46,420

 
19.0

 
170

 
0.6

 
5,773

 
26.2

 
127

 
4.1

 
52,490

 
17.7

A
 
133,829

 
54.7

 
6,270

 
23.8

 
1,589

 
7.2

 
456

 
14.8

 
142,144

 
48.0

BBB
 
55,103

 
22.5

 
16,378

 
62.1

 
879

 
4.0

 
759

 
24.6

 
73,119

 
24.7

BIG
 
7,380

 
3.0

 
1,342

 
5.1

 
4,059

 
18.4

 
293

 
9.5

 
13,074

 
4.4

Total net par outstanding
 
$
244,798

 
100.0
%
 
$
26,381

 
100.0
%
 
$
22,057

 
100.0
%
 
$
3,082

 
100.0
%
 
$
296,318

 
100.0
%


14


Components of BIG Portfolio

Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding
(Insurance and Credit Derivative Form)
As of September 30, 2017

 
BIG Net Par Outstanding
 
Net Par
 
BIG 1
 
BIG 2
 
BIG 3
 
Total BIG
 
Outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
(in millions)
 
 
 
 
Public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
2,563

 
$
662

 
$
4,109

 
$
7,334

 
$
218,216

Non-U.S. public finance
2,007

 
274

 

 
2,281

 
42,727

Public finance
4,570

 
936

 
4,109

 
9,615

 
260,943

Structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS)
177

 
354

 
2,338

 
2,869

 
5,064

Triple-X life insurance transactions

 

 
85

 
85

 
2,058

Trust preferred securities (TruPS)
239

 

 

 
239

 
1,455

Other structured finance
186

 
157

 
75

 
418

 
6,247

Structured finance
602

 
511

 
2,498

 
3,611

 
14,824

Total
$
5,172

 
$
1,447

 
$
6,607

 
$
13,226

 
$
275,767



Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding
(Insurance and Credit Derivative Form)
As of December 31, 2016

 
BIG Net Par Outstanding
 
Net Par
 
BIG 1
 
BIG 2
 
BIG 3
 
Total BIG
 
Outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
(in millions)
 
 
 
 
Public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
2,402

 
$
3,123

 
$
1,855

 
$
7,380

 
$
244,798

Non-U.S. public finance
1,288

 
54

 

 
1,342

 
26,381

Public finance
3,690

 
3,177

 
1,855

 
8,722

 
271,179

Structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS
197

 
493

 
2,461

 
3,151

 
5,637

Triple-X life insurance transactions

 

 
126

 
126

 
2,057

TruPS
304

 
126

 

 
430

 
1,892

Other structured finance
304

 
263

 
78

 
645

 
15,553

Structured finance
805

 
882

 
2,665

 
4,352

 
25,139

Total
$
4,495

 
$
4,059

 
$
4,520

 
$
13,074

 
$
296,318



15


BIG Net Par Outstanding
and Number of Risks
As of September 30, 2017

 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Number of Risks(2)
Description
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
 
(dollars in millions)
BIG:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Category 1
 
$
4,628

 
$
544

 
$
5,172

 
150

 
9

 
159

Category 2
 
1,382

 
65

 
1,447

 
48

 
4

 
52

Category 3
 
6,520

 
87

 
6,607

 
151

 
8

 
159

Total BIG
 
$
12,530

 
$
696

 
$
13,226

 
349

 
21

 
370



 BIG Net Par Outstanding
and Number of Risks
As of December 31, 2016

 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Number of Risks(2)
Description
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
 
(dollars in millions)
BIG:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Category 1
 
$
3,861

 
$
634

 
$
4,495

 
165

 
10

 
175

Category 2
 
3,857

 
202

 
4,059

 
79

 
6

 
85

Category 3
 
4,383

 
137

 
4,520

 
148

 
9

 
157

Total BIG
 
$
12,101

 
$
973

 
$
13,074

 
392

 
25

 
417

_____________________
(1)    Includes net par outstanding for VIEs.
 
(2)
A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments.   


Exposure to Puerto Rico
    
The Company has insured exposure to general obligation bonds of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico (Puerto Rico or the Commonwealth) and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations aggregating $5.0 billion net par as of September 30, 2017, all of which are rated BIG. This amount includes $389 million related to the 2017 commutations of previously ceded business. Please refer to Note 13, Reinsurance and Other Monoline Exposures, for more information. In recent years, Puerto Rico has experienced significant general fund budget deficits and a challenging economic environment. Beginning on January 1, 2016, a number of Puerto Rico credits have defaulted on bond payments, and the Company has now paid claims on most of its Puerto Rico credits as shown in the table "Puerto Rico Net Par Outstanding" below.

On November 30, 2015 and December 8, 2015, Governor García Padilla of Puerto Rico (the Former Governor) issued executive orders (Clawback Orders) directing the Puerto Rico Department of Treasury and the Puerto Rico Tourism Company to "claw back" certain taxes pledged to secure the payment of bonds issued by the Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (PRHTA), Puerto Rico Infrastructure Financing Authority (PRIFA), and Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority (PRCCDA). The Puerto Rico credits insured by the Company subject to clawback are shown in the table “Puerto Rico Net Par Outstanding” below.


16


On June 30, 2016, the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA) was signed into law by the President of the United States. PROMESA establishes a seven-member federal financial oversight board (Oversight Board) with authority to require that balanced budgets and fiscal plans be adopted and implemented by Puerto Rico. PROMESA provides a legal framework under which the debt of the Commonwealth and its related authorities and public corporations may be voluntarily restructured, and grants the Oversight Board the sole authority to file restructuring petitions in a federal court to restructure the debt of the Commonwealth and its related authorities and public corporations if voluntary negotiations fail, provided that any such restructuring must be in accordance with an Oversight Board approved fiscal plan that respects the liens and priorities provided under Puerto Rico law.

On January 2, 2017, Ricardo Antonio Rosselló Nevares (the Governor) took office, replacing the Former Governor. On January 29, 2017, the Governor signed the Puerto Rico Emergency and Fiscal Responsibility Act (Emergency Act) that, among other things, defined an emergency period that has since been extended to December 31, 2017, continued diversion of collateral away from bonds the Company insures, and defined the powers and duties of the Fiscal Agency and Financial Advisory Authority (FAFAA).

In mid-March 2017, the Oversight Board certified Puerto Rico’s fiscal plan, dated March 13, 2017 (Fiscal Plan). The Fiscal Plan provides only approximately $7.9 billion for Commonwealth debt service over the next ten years, an amount less than scheduled debt service for such period. The Fiscal Plan itself acknowledges that there are a number of legal and contractual issues not addressed by the Fiscal Plan. On April 28, 2017, the Oversight Board approved fiscal plans for Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) and PRHTA, and directed Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA) to amend its proposed plan in several ways. The Oversight Board approved the amended PRASA plan on June 30, 2017. The PRHTA plan assumes that PRHTA will not pay any debt service at least through 2026. The PRASA plan assumes it will pay only approximately 65% of its debt service through 2026. The Company does not believe the fiscal plans of PRHTA or PRASA in their current forms comply with certain mandatory requirements of PROMESA.

On May 3, 2017, the Oversight Board filed a petition with the Federal District Court of Puerto Rico for the Commonwealth under Title III of PROMESA. Title III of PROMESA provides for a process analogous to a voluntary bankruptcy process under chapter 9 of the United States Bankruptcy Code (Bankruptcy Code). On May 5, 2017, the Oversight Board certified a filing under Title III of PROMESA for the Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation (COFINA). On May 21, 2017, the Board filed a petition under Title III of PROMESA for PRHTA. On July 2, 2017, after the rejection by the Oversight Board and termination by PREPA of the Restructuring Support Agreement (RSA) described below, the Oversight Board commenced proceedings for PREPA under Title III of PROMESA.
The Company believes that a number of the actions taken by the Commonwealth, the Oversight Board and others with respect to obligations the Company insures are illegal or unconstitutional or both, and has taken legal action, and may take additional legal action in the future, to enforce its rights with respect to these matters. Please see “Puerto Rico Recovery Litigation” below.

Judge Laura Taylor Swain of the Southern District of New York was selected by Chief Justice John Roberts of the United States Supreme Court to preside over any proceedings under PROMESA. Judge Swain has selected a team of five federal judges to act as mediators for certain issues and disputes.

On September 20, 2017, Hurricane Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, causing loss of life and widespread devastation in the Commonwealth. Damage to the Commonwealth’s infrastructure, including the power grid, water system and transportation system, was extensive, with the entire island being without power in the aftermath of the storm. Officials continue to assess the extent of the damage, but rebuilding and economic recovery are expected to take years. While the federal government is expected to provide very substantial resources for relief and rebuilding -- which is expected to help economic activity and address the Commonwealth’s infrastructure needs in the intermediate and longer term -- economic activity in general and tourism in particular, as well as tax collections, are all expected to decline in the short term. Out migration to the mainland is also expected to increase, at least initially.

Litigation and mediation related to the Commonwealth’s debt have been delayed by Hurricane Maria. The final form and timing of responses to Puerto Rico’s financial distress and the devastation of Hurricane Maria eventually taken by the federal government or implemented under the auspices of PROMESA and the Oversight Board or otherwise, and the final impact, after resolution of legal challenges, of any such responses on obligations insured by the Company, are uncertain.


17


The Company groups its Puerto Rico exposure into three categories:

Constitutionally Guaranteed. The Company includes in this category public debt benefiting from Article VI of the Constitution of the Commonwealth, which expressly provides that interest and principal payments on the public debt are to be paid before other disbursements are made.

Public Corporations – Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback. The Company includes in this category the debt of public corporations for which applicable law permits the Commonwealth to claw back, subject to certain conditions and for the payment of public debt, at least a portion of the revenues supporting the bonds the Company insures. As a constitutional condition to clawback, available Commonwealth revenues for any fiscal year must be insufficient to pay Commonwealth debt service before the payment of any appropriations for that year. The Company believes that this condition has not been satisfied to date, and accordingly that the Commonwealth has not to date been entitled to claw back revenues supporting debt insured by the Company. Prior to the enactment of PROMESA, the Company sued various Puerto Rico governmental officials in the United States District Court, District of Puerto Rico asserting that Puerto Rico's attempt to “claw back” pledged taxes is unconstitutional, and demanding declaratory and injunctive relief. Please see "Puerto Rico Recovery Litigation" below.

Other Public Corporations. The Company includes in this category the debt of public corporations that are supported by revenues it does not believe are subject to clawback.

Constitutionally Guaranteed

General Obligation. As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $1,419 million insured net par outstanding of the general obligations of Puerto Rico, which are supported by the good faith, credit and taxing power of the Commonwealth. On July 1, 2016, despite the requirements of Article VI of its Constitution, the Commonwealth defaulted on most of the debt service payment due that day, and the Company made its first claim payments on these bonds, and has continued to make claim payments on these bonds. As noted above, the Oversight Board filed a petition under Title III of PROMESA with respect to the Commonwealth.

Puerto Rico Public Buildings Authority (PBA). As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $141 million insured net par outstanding of PBA bonds, which are supported by a pledge of the rents due under leases of government facilities to departments, agencies, instrumentalities and municipalities of the Commonwealth, and that benefit from a Commonwealth guaranty supported by a pledge of the Commonwealth’s good faith, credit and taxing power. On July 1, 2016, despite the requirements of Article VI of its Constitution, the PBA defaulted on most of the debt service payment due that day, and the Company made its first claim payments on these bonds, and has continued to make claim payments on these bonds.

Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback

PRHTA. As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $882 million insured net par outstanding of PRHTA (transportation revenue) bonds and $495 million insured net par of PRHTA (highways revenue) bonds. The transportation revenue bonds are secured by a subordinate gross lien on gasoline and gas oil and diesel oil taxes, motor vehicle license fees and certain tolls, plus a first lien on up to $120 million annually of taxes on crude oil, unfinished oil and derivative products. The highways revenue bonds are secured by a gross lien on gasoline and gas oil and diesel oil taxes, motor vehicle license fees and certain tolls. The non-toll revenues consisting of excise taxes and fees collected by the Commonwealth on behalf of PRHTA and its bondholders that are statutorily allocated to PRHTA and its bondholders are potentially subject to clawback. Despite the presence of funds in relevant debt service accounts that the Company believes should have been employed to fund debt service, PRHTA defaulted on the full July 1, 2017 insured debt service payment, and the Company made its first claim payments on these bonds. As noted above, on April 28, 2017, the Oversight Board approved a fiscal plan for PRHTA that PRHTA will not pay any debt service at least through 2026. The Company does not believe the PRHTA fiscal plan in its current form complies with certain mandatory requirements of PROMESA.

PRCCDA. As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $152 million insured net par outstanding of PRCCDA bonds, which are secured by certain hotel tax revenues. These revenues are sensitive to the level of economic activity in the area and are potentially subject to clawback. There were sufficient funds in the PRCCDA bond accounts to make only partial payments on the July 1, 2017 PRCCDA bond payments guaranteed by the Company, and the Company made its first claim payments on these bonds.


18


PRIFA. As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $18 million insured net par outstanding of PRIFA bonds, which are secured primarily by the return to Puerto Rico of federal excise taxes paid on rum. These revenues are potentially subject to the clawback. The Company made its first claim payment on PRIFA bonds in January 2016, and has continued to make claim payments on PRIFA bonds.

Other Public Corporations

PREPA. As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $853 million insured net par outstanding of PREPA obligations, which are secured by a lien on the revenues of the electric system.

On December 24, 2015, AGM and AGC entered into an RSA with PREPA, an ad hoc group of uninsured bondholders and a group of fuel-line lenders that would, subject to certain conditions, result in, among other things, modernization of the utility and a restructuring of current debt. Upon finalization of the contemplated restructuring transaction, insured PREPA revenue bonds (with no reduction to par or stated interest rate) would be supported by securitization bonds issued by a special purpose corporation and secured by a transition charge assessed on ratepayers.

In March 2017, the Governor indicated a desire to modify certain aspects of the RSA. On April 6, 2017, the Governor announced that an agreement in principle had been reached to supplement the RSA. As supplemented, the RSA called for AGM and AGC to provide surety insurance policies aggregating approximately $113 million ($14 million for AGC and $99 million for AGM) to support the securitization bonds contemplated by the RSA, to extend the maturity of all of the relending financing provided in 2016, and to provide $120 million of principal payment deferrals in 2018 through 2023. In addition, the RSA as supplemented provided for a consensual restructuring under Title VI of PROMESA.
    
The Oversight Board did not certify the RSA under Title VI of PROMESA as the Company believes is required by PROMESA, but rather, on July 2, 2017, commenced proceedings for PREPA under Title III of PROMESA. PREPA defaulted on its July 1, 2017 debt service payments, and the Company made its first claim payments on these bonds to bondholders as a result of these defaults. The Company believes that a number of the actions taken by the Commonwealth, the Oversight Board and others with respect to the PREPA obligations it insures and the RSA are illegal or unconstitutional or both, and has taken legal action, and may take additional legal action in the future, to enforce its rights with respect to these matters. Please see “Puerto Rico Recovery Litigation” below.

PRASA. As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $373 million of insured net par outstanding to PRASA bonds, which are secured by a lien on the gross revenues of the water and sewer system. On September 15, 2015, PRASA entered into a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency that requires it to spend $1.6 billion to upgrade and improve its sewer system island-wide. The PRASA bond accounts contained sufficient funds to make the PRASA bond payments due through the date of this filing that were guaranteed by the Company, and those payments were made in full. As noted above, on April 28, 2017, the Oversight Board considered a fiscal plan for PRASA that assumes PRASA will pay only approximately 65% of its debt service through 2026, and approved the amended plan on June 30, 2017. Because PRASA has several categories of debt outstanding and the Company insures only PRASA debt with a senior lien on gross revenues of PRASA, it is unclear whether (or to what extent, if any) the payment of only 65% of debt service through 2026 would result in a reduction in PRASA payments of Company-insured debt. The Company does not believe the PRASA fiscal plan in its current form complies with certain mandatory requirements of PROMESA.
    
Municipal Finance Agency (MFA). As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $360 million net par outstanding of bonds issued by MFA secured by a lien on local property tax revenues. The MFA bond accounts contained sufficient funds to make the MFA bond payments due through the date of this filing that were guaranteed by the Company, and those payments were made in full.

COFINA. As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $272 million insured net par outstanding of junior COFINA bonds, which are secured primarily by a second lien on certain sales and use taxes. As noted above, the Oversight Board filed a petition on behalf of the Commonwealth under Title III of PROMESA. COFINA defaulted on its August 1, 2017 insured debt service payment, and the Company made its first claim payments on these bonds.
   
University of Puerto Rico (U of PR). As of September 30, 2017, the Company had $1 million insured net par outstanding of U of PR bonds, which are general obligations of the university and are secured by a subordinate lien on the proceeds, profits and other income of the University, subject to a senior pledge and lien for the benefit of outstanding university system revenue bonds. As of the date of this filing, all debt service payments on U of PR bonds insured by the Company have been made.


19


Puerto Rico Recovery Litigation
 
The Company believes that a number of the actions taken by the Commonwealth, the Oversight Board and others with respect to obligations it insures are illegal or unconstitutional or both, and has taken legal action, and may take additional legal action in the future, to enforce its rights with respect to these matters.

On January 7, 2016, AGM, AGC and Ambac Assurance Corporation (Ambac) commenced an action for declaratory judgment and injunctive relief in the U.S. District Court for the District of Puerto Rico (Federal District Court in Puerto Rico) to invalidate the executive orders issued by the Former Governor on November 30, 2015 and December 8, 2015 directing that the Secretary of the Treasury of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the Puerto Rico Tourism Company claw back certain taxes and revenues pledged to secure the payment of bonds issued by the PRHTA, the PRCCDA and the PRIFA. The Commonwealth defendants filed a motion to dismiss the action for lack of subject matter jurisdiction, which the Court denied on October 4, 2016. On October 14, 2016, the Commonwealth defendants filed a notice of PROMESA automatic stay. While the PROMESA automatic stay expired on May 1, 2017, on May 17, 2017, the Court stayed the action under Title III of PROMESA.

On May 3, 2017, AGM and AGC filed in the Federal District Court in Puerto Rico an adversary complaint seeking a judgment that the Commonwealth's Fiscal Plan violates various sections of PROMESA and the Contracts, Takings and Due Process Clauses of the U.S. Constitution, an injunction enjoining the Commonwealth and Oversight Board from presenting or proceeding with confirmation of any plan of adjustment based on the Fiscal Plan, and a stay on the confirmation of any plan of adjustment based on the Fiscal Plan pending development of a fiscal plan that complies with PROMESA and the U.S. Constitution. On October 6, 2017, AGC and AGM voluntarily withdrew without prejudice the complaint, based on their expectation that the Fiscal Plan would be modified as a result of Hurricane Maria.
    
On May 16, 2017, The Bank of New York Mellon, as trustee for the bonds issued by COFINA, filed an adversary complaint for interpleader and declaratory relief with the Federal District Court in Puerto Rico to resolve competing and conflicting demands made by various groups of COFINA bondholders, insurers of certain COFINA Bonds and COFINA, regarding funds held by the trustee for certain COFINA bond debt service payments scheduled to occur on and after June 1, 2017. On May 19, 2017, an order to show cause was entered permitting AGC and AGM to intervene in this matter. While AGM has insured COFINA Bonds, AGC has not.

On June 3, 2017, AGC and AGM filed an adversary complaint in Federal District Court in Puerto Rico seeking (i) a judgment declaring that the application of pledged special revenues to the payment of the PRHTA Bonds is not subject to the PROMESA Title III automatic stay and that the Commonwealth has violated the special revenue protections provided to the PRHTA Bonds under the Bankruptcy Code; (ii) an injunction enjoining the Commonwealth from taking or causing to be taken any action that would further violate the special revenue protections provided to the PRHTA Bonds under the Bankruptcy Code; and (iii) an injunction ordering the Commonwealth to remit the pledged special revenues securing the PRHTA Bonds in accordance with the terms of the special revenue provisions set forth in the Bankruptcy Code.

On June 26, 2017, AGM and AGC filed a complaint in Federal District Court in Puerto Rico seeking (i) a declaratory judgment that the PREPA RSA is a “Preexisting Voluntary Agreement” under Section 104 of PROMESA and the Oversight Board’s failure to certify the PREPA RSA is an unlawful application of Section 601 of PROMESA; (ii) an injunction enjoining the Oversight Board from unlawfully applying Section 601 of PROMESA and ordering it to certify the PREPA RSA; and (iii) a writ of mandamus requiring the Oversight Board to comply with its duties under PROMESA and certify the PREPA RSA. On July 21, 2017, in light of its PREPA Title III petition on July 2, 2017, the Oversight Board filed a notice of stay under PROMESA.

On July 18, 2017, AGM and AGC filed a motion for relief from the automatic stay in the PREPA Title III bankruptcy proceeding and a form of complaint seeking the appointment of a receiver for PREPA. That motion was denied on September 14, 2017. AGM and AGC filed a notice of appeal on September 28, 2017.

On August 7, 2017, AGC and AGM filed an adversary complaint in Federal District Court in Puerto Rico seeking, among other things, judgment against defendants (i) declaring that the application of pledged special revenues to the payment of the PREPA Bonds is not subject to the PROMESA Title III automatic stay and that the Commonwealth has violated the special revenue protections provided to the PREPA Bonds under the Bankruptcy Code; (ii) declaring that capital expenditures and all other expenses that do not constitute current, reasonable and necessary operating expenses may not be paid from pledged special revenues prior to the payment of debt service on the PREPA Bonds, and (iii) enjoining defendants from taking or causing to be taken any action that would further violate the special revenue protections provided to the PREPA Bonds under

20


the Bankruptcy Code; and (iv) ordering defendants to remit the pledged special revenues securing the PREPA Bonds in accordance with the terms of the special revenue provisions set forth in the Bankruptcy Code. On October 13, 2017, AGC and AGM voluntarily withdrew without prejudice the complaint, in order to allow PREPA to focus on emergency efforts to restore electricity to the island's residents and businesses in the wake of Hurricane Maria.

All Puerto Rico exposures are internally rated BIG. The following tables show the Company’s insured exposure to general obligation bonds of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations.

Puerto Rico
Gross Par and Gross Debt Service Outstanding

 
Gross Par Outstanding
 
Gross Debt Service Outstanding
 
September 30,
2017
 
December 31,
2016
 
September 30,
2017
 
December 31,
2016
 
(in millions)
Exposure to Puerto Rico
$
5,186

 
$
5,435

 
$
8,516

 
$
9,038



Puerto Rico
Net Par Outstanding (1)

 
As of
September 30, 2017
 
As of
December 31, 2016
 
(in millions)
Commonwealth Constitutionally Guaranteed
 
 
 
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds (2) (3)
$
1,419

 
$
1,476

PBA (2)
141

 
169

Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback
 
 
 
PRHTA (Transportation revenue) (2) (3)
882

 
918

PRHTA (Highways revenue) (2) (3)
495

 
350

PRCCDA (2)
152

 
152

PRIFA (2)
18

 
18

Other Public Corporations
 
 
 
PREPA (2) (3)
853

 
724

PRASA
373

 
373

MFA
360

 
334

COFINA (2) (3)
272

 
271

U of PR
1

 
1

Total net exposure to Puerto Rico
$
4,966

 
$
4,786

____________________
(1)
The September 30, 2017 amounts include $389 million (which comprises $36 million of General Obligation Bonds, $134 million of PREPA, $144 million of PRHTA (Highways revenue), and $75 million of MFA) related to 2017 commutations of previously ceded business. Please refer to Note 13, Reinsurance and Other Monoline Exposures, for more information.

(2)    As of the date of this filing, the Company has paid claims on these credits.

(3)    As of the date of this filing, the Oversight Board has certified a filing under Title III of PROMESA for these credits.



21


The following table shows the scheduled amortization of the insured general obligation bonds of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations. The Company guarantees payments of interest and principal when those amounts are scheduled to be paid and cannot be required to pay on an accelerated basis. In the event that obligors default on their obligations, the Company would only be required to pay the shortfall between the principal and interest due in any given period and the amount paid by the obligors.

     Amortization Schedule of Puerto Rico Net Par Outstanding
and Net Debt Service Outstanding
As of September 30, 2017

 
Scheduled Net Par Amortization
 
Scheduled Net Debt Service Amortization
 
(in millions)
2017 (October 1 - December 31)
$
0

 
$
3

2018 (January 1 - March 31)
0

 
123

2018 (April 1 - June 30)
0

 
3

2018 (July 1 - September 30)
200

 
322

2018 (October 1 - December 31)
0

 
3

Subtotal 2018
200

 
451

2019
223

 
464

2020
285

 
516

2021
147

 
364

2022-2026
1,045

 
1,995

2027-2031
981

 
1,655

2032-2036
1,250

 
1,669

2037-2041
417

 
588

2042-2047
418

 
492

Total
$
4,966

 
$
8,197



Exposure to the U.S. Virgin Islands
 
The Company has $498 million insured net par outstanding to the U.S. Virgin Islands and its related authorities (USVI), of which it rates $224 million BIG. The $274 million USVI net par the Company rates investment grade is comprised primarily of bonds secured by a lien on matching fund revenues related to excise taxes on products produced in the USVI and exported to the U.S., primarily rum. The $224 million BIG USVI net par comprises (a) Public Finance Authority bonds secured by a gross receipts tax and the general obligation, full faith and credit pledge of the USVI and (b) bonds of the Virgin Islands Water and Power Authority secured by a net revenue pledge of the electric system.
 
Hurricane Irma caused significant damage in St. John and St. Thomas, while Hurricane Maria made landfall on St. Croix as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, causing loss of life and substantial damage to St. Croix’s businesses and infrastructure, including the power grid. The USVI is benefiting from the federal response to this year’s hurricanes and has made its debt service payments to date.

Exposure to the Selected European Countries

The European countries where the Company has exposure and believes heightened uncertainties exist are: Hungary, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Turkey (collectively, the Selected European Countries). The Company’s direct economic exposure to the Selected European Countries, based on par, is shown in the following table, net of ceded reinsurance.



22


Net Direct Economic Exposure to Selected European Countries(1)
As of September 30, 2017

 
Hungary
 
Italy
 
Portugal
 
Spain
 
Turkey
 
Total
 
(in millions)
Sub-sovereign exposure(2)
$
214

 
$
1,034

 
$
75

 
$
456

 
$

 
$
1,779

Non-sovereign exposure(3)
125

 
449

 

 

 
200

 
774

Total
$
339

 
$
1,483

 
$
75

 
$
456

 
$
200

 
$
2,553

Total BIG (See Note 5)
$
262

 
$

 
$
75

 
$
456

 
$

 
$
793

____________________
(1)
While exposures are shown in U.S. dollars, the obligations are in various currencies, primarily euros.
 
(2)
Sub-sovereign exposure in Selected European Countries includes transactions backed by receivables from, or supported by, sub-sovereigns, which are governmental or government-backed entities other than the ultimate governing body of the country.

(3)
Non-sovereign exposure in Selected European Countries includes debt of regulated utilities, RMBS and diversified payment rights (DPR) securitizations.

    
When the Company directly insures an obligation, it assigns the obligation to a geographic location or locations based on its view of the geographic location of the risk. The Company may also have direct exposures to the Selected European Countries in business assumed from unaffiliated monoline insurance companies, in which case the Company depends upon geographic information provided by the primary insurer.

The Company's $200 million net insured par exposure in Turkey is to DPR securitizations sponsored by a major Turkish bank. These DPR securitizations were established outside of Turkey and involve payment orders in U.S. dollars, pounds sterling and euros from persons outside of Turkey to beneficiaries in Turkey who are customers of the sponsoring bank. The sponsoring bank's correspondent banks have agreed to remit all such payments to a trustee-controlled account outside Turkey, where debt service payments for the DPR securitization are given priority over payments to the sponsoring bank.

The Company has excluded from the exposure tables above its indirect economic exposure to the Selected European Countries through policies it provides on pooled corporate and commercial receivables transactions. The Company calculates indirect exposure to a country by multiplying the par amount of a transaction insured by the Company times the percent of the relevant collateral pool reported as having a nexus to the country. On that basis, the Company has calculated exposure of $46 million to Selected European Countries in transactions with $0.7 billion of net par outstanding.

Non-Financial Guaranty Insurance

The Company provided capital relief triple-X excess of loss life reinsurance on approximately $540 million of exposure as of September 30, 2017 and $390 million as of December 31, 2016. The triple-X excess of loss life reinsurance exposure is expected to increase to approximately $1.2 billion prior to September 30, 2036.

In addition, the Company started providing reinsurance on aircraft residual value insurance (RVI) policies in the first quarter of 2017 and had net exposure of $116 million to such reinsurance as of September 30, 2017.

The capital relief triple-X excess of loss life reinsurance and aircraft residual value reinsurance are all rated investment grade internally. This non-financial guaranty exposure has a similar risk profile to the Company's other structured finance investment grade exposure written in financial guaranty form.


23


5.
Expected Loss to be Paid
 
Loss Estimation Process

This note provides information regarding expected claim payments to be made under all contracts in the insured portfolio, regardless of the accounting model. The Company’s loss reserve committees estimate expected loss to be paid for all contracts by reviewing analyses that consider various scenarios with corresponding probabilities assigned to them. Depending upon the nature of the risk, the Company’s view of the potential size of any loss and the information available to the Company, that analysis may be based upon individually developed cash flow models, internal credit rating assessments and sector-driven loss severity assumptions or judgmental assessments. In the case of its assumed business, the Company may conduct its own analysis as just described or, depending on the Company’s view of the potential size of any loss and the information available to the Company, the Company may use loss estimates provided by ceding insurers. The Company monitors the performance of its transactions with expected losses and each quarter the Company’s loss reserve committees review and refresh their loss projection assumptions and scenarios and the probabilities they assign to those scenarios based on actual developments during the quarter and their view of future performance.
 
The financial guaranties issued by the Company insure the credit performance of the guaranteed obligations over an extended period of time, in some cases over 30 years, and in most circumstances, the Company has no right to cancel such financial guaranties. As a result, the Company's estimate of ultimate losses on a policy is subject to significant uncertainty over the life of the insured transaction. Credit performance can be adversely affected by economic, fiscal and financial market variability over the long life of most contracts.

The determination of expected loss to be paid is an inherently subjective process involving numerous estimates, assumptions and judgments by management, using both internal and external data sources with regard to frequency, severity of loss, economic projections, governmental actions, negotiations and other factors that affect credit performance. These estimates, assumptions and judgments, and the factors on which they are based, may change materially over a reporting period, and as a result the Company’s loss estimates may change materially over that same period.

The Company does not use traditional actuarial approaches to determine its estimates of expected losses. Actual losses will ultimately depend on future events or transaction performance and may be influenced by many interrelated factors that are difficult to predict. As a result, the Company's current projections of losses may be subject to considerable volatility and may not reflect the Company's ultimate claims paid. For information on the Company's loss estimation process, please refer to Note 5, Expected Loss to be Paid, of Part II, Item 8, Financial Statements and Supplementary Data in AGL's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016.



24


The following tables present a roll forward of the present value of net expected loss to be paid for all contracts, whether accounted for as insurance, credit derivatives or financial guaranty (FG) VIEs, by sector, after the expected recoveries/ (payables) for breaches of representations and warranties (R&W) and other expected recoveries. The Company used risk-free rates for U.S. dollar denominated obligations that ranged from 0.0% to 2.94% with a weighted average of 2.27% as of September 30, 2017 and 0.0% to 3.23% with a weighted average of 2.73% as of December 31, 2016.

Net Expected Loss to be Paid
Roll Forward

 
Third Quarter
 
Nine Months
 
2017
 
2016
 
2017
 
2016
 
(in millions)
Net expected loss to be paid, beginning of period
$
1,297

 
$
1,326

 
$
1,198

 
$
1,391

Net expected loss to be paid on the MBIA UK portfolio as of January 10, 2017

 

 
21

 

Net expected loss to be paid on the CIFG portfolio as of July 1, 2016

 
22

 

 
22

Economic loss development (benefit) due to:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Accretion of discount
8

 
5

 
24

 
20

Changes in discount rates
(6
)
 
(29
)
 
28

 
79

Changes in timing and assumptions
202

 
(20
)
 
246

 
(62
)
Total economic loss development (benefit)
204

 
(44
)
 
298

 
37

Net (paid) recovered losses
(209
)
 
(214
)
 
(225
)
 
(360
)
Net expected loss to be paid, end of period
$
1,292

 
$
1,090

 
$
1,292

 
$
1,090


25


Net Expected Loss to be Paid
Roll Forward by Sector
Third Quarter 2017
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered) as of
June 30, 2017
 
Economic Loss
Development / (Benefit)
 
(Paid)
Recovered
Losses (1)
 
Net Expected
Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of
September 30, 2017 (2)
 
(in millions)
Public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
1,044

 
$
229

 
$
(227
)
 
$
1,046

Non-U.S. public finance
42

 
0

 
5

 
47

Public finance
1,086

 
229

 
(222
)
 
1,093

Structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS
182

 
(19
)
 
13

 
176

Triple-X life insurance transactions
(4
)
 
(1
)
 
(2
)
 
(7
)
Other structured finance
33

 
(5
)
 
2

 
30

Structured finance
211

 
(25
)
 
13

 
199

Total
$
1,297

 
$
204

 
$
(209
)
 
$
1,292



Net Expected Loss to be Paid
Roll Forward by Sector
Third Quarter 2016

 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered) as of
June 30, 2016
 
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) on CIFG as of
July 1, 2016
 
Economic Loss
Development / (Benefit)
 
(Paid)
Recovered
Losses (1)
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered) as of
September 30, 2016
 
(in millions)
Public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
963

 
$
40

 
$
9

 
$
(196
)
 
$
816

Non-U.S. public finance
37

 
2

 
(1
)
 

 
38

Public finance
1,000

 
42

 
8

 
(196
)
 
854

Structured finance:
 

 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 

U.S. RMBS
192

 
(22
)
 
(27
)
 
5

 
148

Triple-X life insurance transactions
100

 

 
(23
)
 
(23
)
 
54

Other structured finance
34

 
2

 
(2
)
 
0

 
34

Structured finance
326

 
(20
)
 
(52
)
 
(18
)
 
236

Total
$
1,326

 
$
22

 
$
(44
)
 
$
(214
)
 
$
1,090




26


Net Expected Loss to be Paid
Roll Forward by Sector
Nine Months 2017
 
Net Expected
Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of
December 31, 2016 (2)
 
Net Expected
Loss to be Paid
on MBIA UK
as of
January 10, 2017
 
Economic Loss
Development / (Benefit)
 
(Paid)
Recovered
Losses (1)
 
Net Expected
Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of
September 30, 2017 (2)
 
(in millions)
Public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
871

 
$

 
$
431

 
$
(256
)
 
$
1,046

Non-U.S. public finance
33

 
13

 
(4
)
 
5

 
47

Public finance
904

 
13

 
427

 
(251
)