Income Taxes

Accounting Policy

The provision for income taxes consists of an amount for taxes currently payable and an amount for deferred taxes. Deferred income taxes are provided for temporary differences between the financial statement carrying amounts and tax bases of assets and liabilities, using enacted rates in effect for the year in which the differences are expected to reverse. A valuation allowance is recorded to reduce the deferred tax asset to an amount that is more likely than not to be realized.

Non-interest‑bearing tax and loss bonds are purchased in the amount of the tax benefit that results from deducting contingency reserves as provided under Internal Revenue Code Section 832(e). The Company records the purchase of tax and loss bonds in deferred taxes.

The Company recognizes tax benefits only if a tax position is “more likely than not” to prevail.

Overview

AGL, and its "Bermuda Subsidiaries," which consist of AG Re, AGRO, and Cedar Personnel Ltd., are not subject to any income, withholding or capital gains taxes under current Bermuda law. The Company has received an assurance from the Minister of Finance in Bermuda that, in the event of any taxes being imposed, AGL and its Bermuda Subsidiaries will be exempt from taxation in Bermuda until March 31, 2035. AGL's U.S. and U.K. subsidiaries are subject to income taxes imposed by U.S. and U.K. authorities, respectively, and file applicable tax returns. In addition, AGRO, a Bermuda domiciled company and AGE, a U.K. domiciled company, have elected under Section 953(d) of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code to be taxed as a U.S. domestic corporation.

In November 2013, AGL became tax resident in the U.K. although it will remain a Bermuda-based company and its administrative and head office functions will continue to be carried on in Bermuda. As a U.K. tax resident company, AGL is required to file a corporation tax return with Her Majesty’s Revenue & Customs (“HMRC”). AGL is subject to U.K. corporation tax in respect of its worldwide profits (both income and capital gains), subject to any applicable exemptions. The main rate of corporation tax is 20% as of April 1, 2015. AGL has also registered in the U.K. to report its Value Added Tax (“VAT”) liability. The current rate of VAT is 20%. Assured Guaranty expects that the dividends AGL receives from its direct subsidiaries will be exempt from U.K. corporation tax due to the exemption in section 931D of the U.K. Corporation Tax Act 2009. In addition, any dividends paid by AGL to its shareholders should not be subject to any withholding tax in the U.K. The U.K. government implemented a new tax regime for “controlled foreign companies” (“CFC regime”) effective January 1, 2013. Assured Guaranty does not expect any profits of non-U.K. resident members of the group to be taxed under the CFC regime and has obtained a clearance from HMRC confirming this on the basis of current facts.

AGUS files a consolidated federal income tax return with AGC, AG Financial Products Inc. ("AGFP"), AG Analytics Inc., AGMH, beginning May 12, 2012 MAC and MAC Holdings, and beginning April 1, 2015 Radian Asset and Van American (“AGUS consolidated tax group”). Assured Guaranty Overseas US Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries AGRO and AG Intermediary Inc., file their own consolidated federal income tax return.

Provision for Income Taxes

The effective tax rates reflect the proportion of income recognized by each of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, with U.S. subsidiaries taxed at the U.S. marginal corporate income tax rate of 35%, U.K. subsidiaries taxed at the U.K. blended marginal corporate tax rate of 20.25% unless subject to U.S. tax by election or as a U.S. controlled foreign corporation, and no taxes for the Company’s Bermuda subsidiaries unless subject to U.S. tax by election or as a U.S. controlled foreign corporation. For periods subsequent to April 1, 2015, the U.K. corporation tax rate has been reduced to 20%, for the period April 1, 2014 to April 1, 2015 the U.K. corporation tax rate was 21% resulting in a blended tax rate of 20.25% in 2015, and prior to April 1, 2014, the U.K. corporation tax rate was 23% resulting in a blended tax rate of 21.5% in 2014. The Company’s overall effective tax rate fluctuates based on the distribution of income across jurisdictions.

A reconciliation of the difference between the provision for income taxes and the expected tax provision at statutory rates in taxable jurisdictions is presented below.

Effective Tax Rate Reconciliation



	Year Ended December 31,
	2015			2014			2013
	(in millions)
Expected tax provision (benefit) at statutory rates in taxable jurisdictions	$	443		$	490		$	390
Tax-exempt interest	(54		)	(53		)	(57		)
Gain on bargain purchase	(19		)	—			—
Change in liability for uncertain tax positions	12			9			(2		)
Other	(7		)	(3		)	3
Total provision (benefit) for income taxes	$	375		$	443		$	334
Effective tax rate	26.2		%	28.9		%	29.2		%

The expected tax provision at statutory rates in taxable jurisdictions is calculated as the sum of pretax income in each jurisdiction multiplied by the statutory tax rate of the jurisdiction by which it will be taxed. Pretax income of the Company’s subsidiaries which are not U.S. or U.K. domiciled but are subject to U.S. or U.K. tax by election, establishment of tax residency or as controlled foreign corporations, are included at the U.S. or U.K. statutory tax rate. Where there is a pretax loss in one jurisdiction and pretax income in another, the total combined expected tax rate may be higher or lower than any of the individual statutory rates.

The following table presents pretax income and revenue by jurisdiction.

Pretax Income (Loss) by Tax Jurisdiction



	Year Ended December 31,
	2015			2014			2013
	(in millions)
United States	$	1,284		$	1,420		$	1,118
Bermuda	177			142			27
U.K.	(30		)	(31		)	(3		)
Total	$	1,431		$	1,531		$	1,142

Revenue by Tax Jurisdiction



	Year Ended December 31,
	2015			2014			2013
	(in millions)
United States	$	1,853		$	1,633		$	1,389
Bermuda	361			365			219
U.K.	(7		)	(4		)	0
Total	$	2,207		$	1,994		$	1,608

Pretax income by jurisdiction may be disproportionate to revenue by jurisdiction to the extent that insurance losses incurred are disproportionate.

Components of Net Deferred Tax Assets



	As of December 31,
	2015		2014
	(in millions)
Deferred tax assets:
Unrealized losses on credit derivative financial instruments, net	$	33	$	224
Unearned premium reserves, net	254		55
Loss and LAE reserve	64		66
Tax and loss bonds	39		39
Alternative minimum tax credit	55		57
Foreign tax credit	11		—
FG VIEs	—		13
DAC	27		35
Investment basis difference	86		104
Deferred compensation	41		38
Other	17		19
Total deferred income tax assets	627		650
Deferred tax liabilities:
Contingency reserves	64		64
Public debt	94		96
Unrealized appreciation on investments	108		159
Unrealized gains on CCS	22		22
Market discount	21		28
FG VIEs	13		—
Other	18		21
Total deferred income tax liabilities	340		390
Less: Valuation allowance	11		—
Net deferred income tax asset	$	276	$	260

As of December 31, 2015, the Company had alternative minimum tax credits of $55 million which do not expire. Management believes sufficient future taxable income exists to realize the full benefit of these tax credits.

Valuation Allowance

As part of the Radian Asset Acquisition, the Company acquired $11 million of foreign tax credits (“FTC”) which will expire between 2018 and 2020. After reviewing positive and negative evidence, the Company came to the conclusion that it is more likely than not that the FTC will not be utilized, and therefore recorded a valuation allowance with respect to this tax attribute.

The Company came to the conclusion that it is more likely than not that the remaining net deferred tax asset will be fully realized after weighing all positive and negative evidence available as required under GAAP. The positive evidence that was considered included the cumulative income the Company has earned over the last three years, and the significant unearned premium income to be included in taxable income. The positive evidence outweighs any negative evidence that exists. As such, the Company believes that no valuation allowance is necessary in connection with this deferred tax asset. The Company will continue to analyze the need for a valuation allowance on a quarterly basis.

Audits

AGUS has open tax years with the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”) for 2009 forward and is currently under audit for the 2009-2012 tax years. On February 20, 2013 the IRS notified AGUS that the Joint Committee on Taxation completed its review of the 2006 through 2008 tax years and has accepted the results of the IRS examination without exception. Assured Guaranty Oversees US Holdings Inc. has open tax years of 2012 forward. The Company's U.K. subsidiaries are not currently under examination and have open tax years of 2014 forward.

Uncertain Tax Positions

The following table provides a reconciliation of the beginning and ending balances of the total liability for unrecognized tax benefits. The Company does not believe it is reasonably possible that this amount will change significantly in the next twelve months.



	2015		2014		2013
	(in millions)
Balance as of January 1,	$	28	$	20	$	22
True-up from tax return filings	10		6		4
Increase in unrecognized tax benefits as a result of position taken during the current period	2		2		3
Decrease due to closing of IRS audit	—		—		(9		)
Balance as of December 31,	$	40	$	28	$	20

The Company's policy is to recognize interest and penalties related to uncertain tax positions in income tax expense and has accrued $1 million per year from 2013 to 2015. As of December 31, 2015 and December 31, 2014, the Company has accrued $5.4 million and $4.5 million of interest, respectively.

The total amount of unrecognized tax benefits as of December 31, 2015 would affect the effective tax rate, if recognized.

Tax Treatment of CDS

The Company treats the guaranty it provides on CDS as an insurance contract for tax purposes and as such a taxable loss does not occur until the Company expects to make a loss payment to the buyer of credit protection based upon the occurrence of one or more specified credit events with respect to the contractually referenced obligation or entity. The Company holds its CDS to maturity, at which time any unrealized fair value loss in excess of credit-related losses would revert to zero. The tax treatment of CDS is an unsettled area of the law. The uncertainty relates to the IRS determination of the income or potential loss associated with CDS as either subject to capital gain (loss) or ordinary income (loss) treatment. In treating CDS as insurance contracts the Company treats both the receipt of premium and payment of losses as ordinary income and believes it is more likely than not that any CDS credit related losses will be treated as ordinary by the IRS. To the extent the IRS takes the view that the losses are capital losses in the future and the Company incurred actual losses associated with the CDS, the Company would need sufficient taxable income of the same character within the carryback and carryforward period available under the tax law.