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Expected Loss to be Paid (Tables)
9 Months Ended
Sep. 30, 2015
Expected Losses [Abstract]  
Net Expected Loss to be Paid After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W Roll Forward
Net Expected Loss to be Paid
After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W
Roll Forward

 
Third Quarter 2015
 
Nine Months 2015
 
(in millions)
Net expected loss to be paid, beginning of period
$
1,510

 
$
1,169

Net expected loss to be paid on Radian Asset portfolio as of April 1, 2015

 
190

Economic loss development due to:
 
 
 
Accretion of discount
10

 
24

Changes in discount rates
11

 
(29
)
Changes in timing and assumptions
(24
)
 
191

Total economic loss development
(3
)
 
186

Paid losses
(200
)
 
(238
)
Net expected loss to be paid, end of period
$
1,307

 
$
1,307


Net Expected Loss to be Paid
After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W
Roll Forward by Sector
Third Quarter 2015

 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid 
(Recovered)
as of
June 30, 2015
 
Economic Loss
Development
 
(Paid)
Recovered
Losses (1)
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid 
(Recovered)
as of
September 30, 2015 (2)
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
613

 
$
92

 
$
(18
)
 
$
687

Non-U.S public finance
44

 
(1
)
 

 
43

Public Finance
657

 
91

 
(18
)
 
730

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 


U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

First lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Prime first lien
1

 
0

 
(1
)
 
0

Alt-A first lien
265

 
(111
)
 
(108
)
 
46

Option ARM
(18
)
 
(4
)
 
6

 
(16
)
Subprime
273

 
26

 
(20
)
 
279

Total first lien
521

 
(89
)
 
(123
)
 
309

Second lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien
9

 
0

 
2

 
11

HELOCs
(6
)
 
13

 
8

 
15

Total second lien
3

 
13

 
10

 
26

Total U.S. RMBS
524

 
(76
)
 
(113
)
 
335

Triple-X life insurance transactions
165

 
1

 
(68
)
 
98

TruPS
10

 
(5
)
 

 
5

Student loans
58

 
(2
)
 
0

 
56

Other structured finance
96

 
(12
)
 
(1
)
 
83

Structured Finance
853

 
(94
)
 
(182
)
 
577

Total
$
1,510

 
$
(3
)
 
$
(200
)
 
$
1,307


Net Expected Loss to be Paid
After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W
Roll Forward by Sector
Third Quarter 2014

 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered)
as of
June 30, 2014
 
Economic Loss
Development
 
(Paid)
Recovered
Losses (1)
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered
)
as of
September 30, 2014
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
339

 
$
2

 
$
(8
)
 
$
333

Non-U.S public finance
52

 
(1
)
 

 
51

Public Finance
391

 
1

 
(8
)
 
384

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 


U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

First lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Prime first lien
11

 
(1
)
 

 
10

Alt-A first lien
301

 
(18
)
 
(35
)
 
248

Option ARM
(51
)
 

 
20

 
(31
)
Subprime
341

 
(11
)
 
(23
)
 
307

Total first lien
602

 
(30
)
 
(38
)
 
534

Second lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien
(9
)
 
2

 
2

 
(5
)
HELOCs
(117
)
 
(34
)
 
3

 
(148
)
Total second lien
(126
)
 
(32
)
 
5

 
(153
)
Total U.S. RMBS
476

 
(62
)
 
(33
)
 
381

Triple-X life insurance transactions
90

 
3

 
(1
)
 
92

TruPS
32

 
(5
)
 
(1
)
 
26

Student loans
58

 
6

 

 
64

Other structured finance
(12
)
 
(6
)
 
4

 
(14
)
Structured Finance
644

 
(64
)
 
(31
)
 
549

Total
$
1,035

 
$
(63
)
 
$
(39
)
 
$
933


Net Expected Loss to be Paid
After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W
Roll Forward by Sector
Nine Months 2015

 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid 
(Recovered)
as of
December 31, 2014 (2)
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid 
(Recovered)
on Radian Asset portfolio as of
April 1, 2015
 
Economic Loss
Development
 
(Paid)
Recovered
Losses (1)
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid 
(Recovered)
as of
September 30, 2015 (2)
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
303

 
$
81

 
$
327

 
$
(24
)
 
$
687

Non-U.S public finance
45

 
4

 
(6
)
 

 
43

Public Finance
348

 
85

 
321

 
(24
)
 
730

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

First lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Prime first lien
4

 

 
(1
)
 
(3
)
 
0

Alt-A first lien
304

 
7

 
(132
)
 
(133
)
 
46

Option ARM
(16
)
 
0

 
(3
)
 
3

 
(16
)
Subprime
303

 
(4
)
 
19

 
(39
)
 
279

Total first lien
595

 
3

 
(117
)
 
(172
)
 
309

Second lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien
8

 

 
(2
)
 
5

 
11

HELOCs
(19
)
 
1

 
15

 
18

 
15

Total second lien
(11
)
 
1

 
13

 
23

 
26

Total U.S. RMBS
584

 
4

 
(104
)
 
(149
)
 
335

Triple-X life insurance transactions
161

 

 
8

 
(71
)
 
98

TruPS
23

 

 
(18
)
 

 
5

Student loans
68

 

 
(7
)
 
(5
)
 
56

Other structured finance
(15
)
 
101

 
(14
)
 
11

 
83

Structured Finance
821

 
105

 
(135
)
 
(214
)
 
577

Total
$
1,169

 
$
190

 
$
186

 
$
(238
)
 
$
1,307


Net Expected Loss to be Paid
After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W
Roll Forward by Sector
Nine Months 2014

 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered)
as of
December 31, 2013
 
Economic Loss
Development
 
(Paid)
Recovered
Losses (1)
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered
)
as of
September 30, 2014
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
264

 
$
107

 
$
(38
)
 
$
333

Non-U.S public finance
57

 
(6
)
 

 
51

Public Finance
321

 
101

 
(38
)
 
384

Structured Finance:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
21

 
(11
)
 

 
10

Alt-A first lien
304

 
(6
)
 
(50
)
 
248

Option ARM
(9
)
 
(39
)
 
17

 
(31
)
Subprime
304

 
(12
)
 
15

 
307

Total first lien
620

 
(68
)
 
(18
)
 
534

Second lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Closed-end second lien
(11
)
 
2

 
4

 
(5
)
HELOCs
(116
)
 
(65
)
 
33

 
(148
)
Total second lien
(127
)
 
(63
)
 
37

 
(153
)
Total U.S. RMBS
493

 
(131
)
 
19

 
381

Triple-X life insurance transactions
75

 
21

 
(4
)
 
92

TruPS
51

 
(24
)
 
(1
)
 
26

Student loans
52

 
12

 

 
64

Other structured finance
(10
)
 
(7
)
 
3

 
(14
)
Structured Finance
661

 
(129
)
 
17

 
549

Total
$
982

 
$
(28
)
 
$
(21
)
 
$
933

____________________
(1)
Net of ceded paid losses, whether or not such amounts have been settled with reinsurers. Ceded paid losses are typically settled 45 days after the end of the reporting period. Such amounts are recorded in reinsurance recoverable on paid losses included in other assets. The Company paid $7 million and $6 million in LAE for Third Quarter 2015 and 2014, respectively, and $16 million and $20 million in LAE for Nine Months 2015 and 2014, respectively.

(2)
Includes expected LAE to be paid of $13 million as of September 30, 2015 and $16 million as of December 31, 2014.
Net Expected Recoveries from Breaches of R&W Rollforward
Net Expected Recoveries from
Breaches of R&W Rollforward
Third Quarter 2015
 
 
Future Net
R&W Benefit as of
June 30, 2015
 
R&W Development
and Accretion of
Discount
During Third Quarter 2015
 
R&W (Recovered)
During Third Quarter 2015
 
Future Net
R&W Benefit as of
September 30, 2015
(1)
 
(in millions)
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
$
1

 
$
0

 
$
0

 
$
1

Alt-A first lien
93

 
9

 
(2
)
 
100

Option ARM
(33
)
 
(5
)
 
(20
)
 
(58
)
Subprime
81

 
(4
)
 
(3
)
 
74

Total first lien
142

 
0

 
(25
)
 
117

Second lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Closed-end second lien
83

 
(1
)
 
(1
)
 
81

HELOC

 

 

 

Total second lien
83

 
(1
)
 
(1
)
 
81

Total
$
225

 
$
(1
)
 
$
(26
)
 
$
198



Net Expected Recoveries from
Breaches of R&W Rollforward
Third Quarter 2014

 
Future Net
R&W Benefit as of
June 30, 2014
 
R&W Development
and Accretion of
Discount
During Third Quarter 2014
 
R&W (Recovered)
During Third Quarter 2014
 
Future Net
R&W Benefit as of
September 30, 2014
 
(in millions)
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
$
3

 
$
1

 
$
(1
)
 
$
3

Alt-A first lien
263

 
19

 
(79
)
 
203

Option ARM
144

 
10

 
(76
)
 
78

Subprime
99

 
5

 
(7
)
 
97

Total first lien
509

 
35

 
(163
)
 
381

Second lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Closed-end second lien
93

 
(1
)
 
(3
)
 
89

HELOC
49

 
59

 

 
108

Total second lien
142

 
58

 
(3
)
 
197

Total
$
651

 
$
93

 
$
(166
)
 
$
578



Net Expected Recoveries from
Breaches of R&W Rollforward
Nine Months 2015
 
 
Future Net
R&W Benefit as of
December 31, 2014
 
Future Net
R&W Benefit on Radian Asset portfolio as of
April 1,2015
 
R&W Development
and Accretion of
Discount
During 2015
 
R&W (Recovered)
During 2015
 
Future Net
R&W Benefit as of
September 30, 2015
(1)
 
(in millions)
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
$
2

 
$

 
$
(1
)
 
$
0

 
$
1

Alt-A first lien
106

 

 
(1
)
 
(5
)
 
100

Option ARM
15

 

 
(19
)
 
(54
)
 
(58
)
Subprime
109

 
1

 
(27
)
 
(9
)
 
74

Total first lien
232

 
1

 
(48
)
 
(68
)
 
117

Second lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Closed-end second lien
85

 
1

 
0

 
(5
)
 
81

HELOC

 

 

 

 

Total second lien
85

 
1

 

 
(5
)
 
81

Total
$
317

 
$
2

 
$
(48
)
 
$
(73
)
 
$
198


 
Net Expected Recoveries from
Breaches of R&W Rollforward
Nine Months 2014

 
Future Net
R&W Benefit as of
December 31, 2013
 
R&W Development
and Accretion of
Discount
During 2014
 
R&W (Recovered)
During 2014
 
Future Net
R&W Benefit as of
September 30, 2014
 
(in millions)
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
$
4

 
$

 
$
(1
)
 
$
3

Alt-A first lien
274

 
20

 
(91
)
 
203

Option ARM
173

 
30

 
(125
)
 
78

Subprime
118

 
34

 
(55
)
 
97

Total first lien
569

 
84

 
(272
)
 
381

Second lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Closed-end second lien
98

 
(4
)
 
(5
)
 
89

HELOC
45

 
80

 
(17
)
 
108

Total second lien
143

 
76

 
(22
)
 
197

Total
$
712

 
$
160

 
$
(294
)
 
$
578


___________________
(1)    See the section "Breaches of Representations and Warranties" below for eligible assets held in trust.
Net Expected Loss to be Paid By Accounting Model
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered)
By Accounting Model
As of September 30, 2015
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance
 
FG VIEs(1) and Other
 
Credit
Derivatives(2)
 
Total
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
687

 
$

 
$
0

 
$
687

Non-U.S. public finance
43

 

 

 
43

Public Finance
730

 

 
0

 
730

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

First lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Prime first lien
2

 

 
(2
)
 
0

Alt-A first lien
109

 
16

 
(79
)
 
46

Option ARM
(17
)
 

 
1

 
(16
)
Subprime
159

 
63

 
57

 
279

Total first lien
253

 
79

 
(23
)
 
309

Second lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien
(23
)
 
30

 
4

 
11

HELOCs
7

 
8

 

 
15

Total second lien
(16
)
 
38

 
4

 
26

Total U.S. RMBS
237

 
117

 
(19
)
 
335

Triple-X life insurance transactions
88

 

 
10

 
98

TruPS
0

 

 
5

 
5

Student loans
56

 

 

 
56

Other structured finance
34

 
18

 
31

 
83

Structured Finance
415

 
135

 
27

 
577

Total
$
1,145

 
$
135

 
$
27

 
$
1,307


Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered)
By Accounting Model
As of December 31, 2014

 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance
 
FG VIEs(1) and Other
 
Credit
Derivatives(2)
 
Total
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
303

 
$

 
$

 
$
303

Non-U.S. public finance
45

 

 

 
45

Public Finance
348

 

 

 
348

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
2

 

 
2

 
4

Alt-A first lien
288

 
17

 
(1
)
 
304

Option ARM
(15
)
 

 
(1
)
 
(16
)
Subprime
163

 
71

 
69

 
303

Total first lien
438

 
88

 
69

 
595

Second lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien
(27
)
 
31

 
4

 
8

HELOCs
(26
)
 
7

 

 
(19
)
Total second lien
(53
)
 
38

 
4

 
(11
)
Total U.S. RMBS
385

 
126

 
73

 
584

Triple-X life insurance transactions
153

 

 
8

 
161

TruPS
1

 

 
22

 
23

Student loans
68

 

 

 
68

Other structured finance
34

 
(4
)
 
(45
)
 
(15
)
Structured Finance
641

 
122

 
58

 
821

Total
$
989

 
$
122

 
$
58

 
$
1,169

___________________
(1)    Refer to Note 10, Consolidated Variable Interest Entities.

(2)    Refer to Note 9, Financial Guaranty Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives.
Schedule of Net Economic Loss Development
Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)
By Accounting Model
Third Quarter 2015
 
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance
 
FG VIEs(1) and Other
 
Credit
Derivatives(2)
 
Total
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
91

 
$

 
$
1

 
$
92

Non-U.S. public finance
(1
)
 

 
0

 
(1
)
Public Finance
90

 

 
1

 
91

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
0

 

 
0

 
0

Alt-A first lien
(44
)
 
0

 
(67
)
 
(111
)
Option ARM
(2
)
 

 
(2
)
 
(4
)
Subprime
16

 
7

 
3

 
26

Total first lien
(30
)
 
7

 
(66
)
 
(89
)
Second lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien
(1
)
 
1

 
0

 
0

HELOCs
12

 
1

 

 
13

Total second lien
11

 
2

 
0

 
13

Total U.S. RMBS
(19
)
 
9

 
(66
)
 
(76
)
Triple-X life insurance transactions
(1
)
 

 
2

 
1

TruPS
0

 

 
(5
)
 
(5
)
Student loans
(2
)
 

 

 
(2
)
Other structured finance
(1
)
 
0

 
(11
)
 
(12
)
Structured Finance
(23
)
 
9

 
(80
)
 
(94
)
Total
$
67

 
$
9

 
$
(79
)
 
$
(3
)

Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)
By Accounting Model
Third Quarter 2014
 
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance
 
FG VIEs(1) and Other
 
Credit
Derivatives(2)
 
Total
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
2

 
$

 
$

 
$
2

Non-U.S. public finance
(1
)
 

 

 
(1
)
Public Finance
1

 

 

 
1

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
(1
)
 

 

 
(1
)
Alt-A first lien
6

 
(2
)
 
(22
)
 
(18
)
Option ARM
7

 

 
(7
)
 

Subprime
(21
)
 
8

 
2

 
(11
)
Total first lien
(9
)
 
6

 
(27
)
 
(30
)
Second lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien
2

 
1

 
(1
)
 
2

HELOCs
(48
)
 
14

 

 
(34
)
Total second lien
(46
)
 
15

 
(1
)
 
(32
)
Total U.S. RMBS
(55
)
 
21

 
(28
)
 
(62
)
Triple-X life insurance transactions
3

 

 

 
3

TruPS
(1
)
 

 
(4
)
 
(5
)
Student loans
6

 

 

 
6

Other structured finance
(4
)
 

 
(2
)
 
(6
)
Structured Finance
(51
)
 
21

 
(34
)
 
(64
)
Total
$
(50
)
 
$
21

 
$
(34
)
 
$
(63
)

Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)
By Accounting Model
Nine Months 2015
 
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance
 
FG VIEs(1) and Other
 
Credit
Derivatives(2)
 
Total
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
332

 
$

 
$
(5
)
 
$
327

Non-U.S. public finance
(6
)
 

 
0

 
(6
)
Public Finance
326

 

 
(5
)
 
321

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
0

 

 
(1
)
 
(1
)
Alt-A first lien
(54
)
 
(1
)
 
(77
)
 
(132
)
Option ARM
(5
)
 

 
2

 
(3
)
Subprime
12

 
10

 
(3
)
 
19

Total first lien
(47
)
 
9

 
(79
)
 
(117
)
Second lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien
(2
)
 
0

 
0

 
(2
)
HELOCs
14

 
1

 

 
15

Total second lien
12

 
1

 
0

 
13

Total U.S. RMBS
(35
)
 
10

 
(79
)
 
(104
)
Triple-X life insurance transactions
4

 

 
4

 
8

TruPS
(1
)
 

 
(17
)
 
(18
)
Student loans
(7
)
 

 

 
(7
)
Other structured finance
(1
)
 
0

 
(13
)
 
(14
)
Structured Finance
(40
)
 
10

 
(105
)
 
(135
)
Total
$
286

 
$
10

 
$
(110
)
 
$
186


Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)
By Accounting Model
Nine Months 2014

 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance
 
FG VIEs(1) and Other
 
Credit
Derivatives(2)
 
Total
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
107

 
$

 
$

 
$
107

Non-U.S. public finance
(5
)
 

 
(1
)
 
(6
)
Public Finance
102

 

 
(1
)
 
101

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien

 

 
(11
)
 
(11
)
Alt-A first lien
32

 
(12
)
 
(26
)
 
(6
)
Option ARM
(32
)
 
1

 
(8
)
 
(39
)
Subprime
(25
)
 
9

 
4

 
(12
)
Total first lien
(25
)
 
(2
)
 
(41
)
 
(68
)
Second lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien

 
4

 
(2
)
 
2

HELOCs
(138
)
 
73

 

 
(65
)
Total second lien
(138
)
 
77

 
(2
)
 
(63
)
Total U.S. RMBS
(163
)
 
75

 
(43
)
 
(131
)
Triple-X life insurance transactions
20

 

 
1

 
21

TruPS
(2
)
 

 
(22
)
 
(24
)
Student loans
12

 

 

 
12

Other structured finance
(6
)
 
(1
)
 

 
(7
)
Structured Finance
(139
)
 
74

 
(64
)
 
(129
)
Total
$
(37
)
 
$
74

 
$
(65
)
 
$
(28
)
_________________
(1)    Refer to Note 10, Consolidated Variable Interest Entities.

(2)    Refer to Note 9, Financial Guaranty Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives.
Liquidation Rates and Key Assumptions in Base Case Expected Loss Estimates First Lien RMBS
First Lien Liquidation Rates

 
September 30, 2015
 
June 30, 2015
 
December 31, 2014
Current Loans Modified in the Previous 12 Months
 
 
 
 
 
Alt A and Prime
25%
 
25%
 
25%
Option ARM
25
 
25
 
25
Subprime
25
 
25
 
25
Current Loans Delinquent in the Previous 12 Months
 
 
 
 
 
Alt A and Prime
25
 
25
 
25
Option ARM
25
 
25
 
25
Subprime
25
 
25
 
25
30 – 59 Days Delinquent
 
 
 
 
 
Alt A and Prime
35
 
35
 
35
Option ARM
45
 
40
 
40
Subprime
50
 
35
 
35
60 – 89 Days Delinquent
 
 
 
 
 
Alt A and Prime
45
 
50
 
50
Option ARM
55
 
55
 
55
Subprime
55
 
40
 
40
90+ Days Delinquent
 
 
 
 
 
Alt A and Prime
55
 
60
 
60
Option ARM
65
 
65
 
65
Subprime
60
 
55
 
55
Bankruptcy
 
 
 
 
 
Alt A and Prime
45
 
45
 
45
Option ARM
50
 
50
 
50
Subprime
40
 
40
 
40
Foreclosure
 
 
 
 
 
Alt A and Prime
65
 
75
 
75
Option ARM
75
 
80
 
80
Subprime
70
 
70
 
70
Real Estate Owned
 
 
 
 
 
All
100
 
100
 
100
Key Assumptions in Base Case Expected Loss Estimates
First Lien RMBS(1)
 
 
As of
September 30, 2015
 
As of
June 30, 2015
 
As of
December 31, 2014
 
Range
 
Weighted Average
 
Range
 
Weighted Average
 
Range
 
Weighted Average
Alt-A First Lien
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Plateau CDR
2.4
%
-
15.4%
 
6.4%
 
1.7
%
13.3%
 
7.1%
 
2.0
%
13.4%
 
7.3%
Intermediate CDR
0.5
%
-
3.1%
 
1.3%
 
0.3
%
2.7%
 
1.4%
 
0.4
%
2.7%
 
1.5%
Period until intermediate CDR
48 months
 
 
 
48 months
 
 
 
48 months
 
 
Final CDR
0.1
%
-
0.8%
 
0.3%
 
0.1
%
0.7%
 
0.3%
 
0.1
%
0.7%
 
0.3%
Initial loss severity:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2005 and prior
60.0%
 
 
 
60.0%
 
 
 
60.0%
 
 
2006
70.0%
 
 
 
70.0%
 
 
 
70.0%
 
 
2007
65.0%
 
 
 
65.0%
 
 
 
65.0%
 
 
Initial conditional prepayment rate ("CPR")
2.7
%
-
32.0%
 
8.9%
 
1.6
%
27.7%
 
8.5%
 
1.7
%
21.0%
 
7.7%
Final CPR(2)
15.0
%
-
32.0%
 
15.5%
 
15.0
%
27.7%
 
15.3%
 
15%
 
 
Option ARM
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Plateau CDR
3.6
%
-
11.2%
 
8.5%
 
4.0
%
12.1%
 
9.2%
 
4.3
%
14.2%
 
10.6%
Intermediate CDR
0.7
%
-
2.2%
 
1.7%
 
0.8
%
2.4%
 
1.8%
 
0.9
%
2.8%
 
2.1%
Period until intermediate CDR
48 months
 
 
 
48 months
 
 
 
48 months
 
 
Final CDR
0.2
%
-
0.6%
 
0.4%
 
0.2
%
0.6%
 
0.5%
 
0.2
%
0.7%
 
0.5%
Initial loss severity:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2005 and prior
60.0%
 
 
 
60.0%
 
 
 
60.0%
 
 
2006
70.0%
 
 
 
70.0%
 
 
 
70.0%
 
 
2007
65.0%
 
 
 
65.0%
 
 
 
65.0%
 
 
Initial CPR
2.2
%
-
7.8%
 
4.9%
 
1.6
%
12.3%
 
5.0%
 
1.1
%
11.8%
 
4.9%
Final CPR(2)
15%
 
 
 
15%
 
 
 
15%
 
 
Subprime
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Plateau CDR
5.0
%
-
13.7%
 
10.0%
 
4.9
%
13.5%
 
9.7%
 
4.9
%
15.0%
 
10.6%
Intermediate CDR
1.0
%
-
2.7%
 
2.0%
 
1.0
%
2.7%
 
1.9%
 
1.0
%
3.0%
 
2.1%
Period until intermediate CDR
48 months
 
 
 
48 months
 
 
 
48 months
 
 
Final CDR
0.3
%
-
0.7%
 
0.4%
 
0.2
%
0.7%
 
0.4%
 
0.2
%
0.7%
 
0.4%
Initial loss severity:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2005 and prior
75.0%
 
 
 
75.0%
 
 
 
75.0%
 
 
2006
90.0%
 
 
 
90.0%
 
 
 
90.0%
 
 
2007
90.0%
 
 
 
90.0%
 
 
 
90.0%
 
 
Initial CPR
0.0
%
-
9.3%
 
3.9%
 
0.0
%
8.7%
 
4.0%
 
0.0
%
10.5%
 
6.1%
Final CPR(2)
15%
 
 
 
15%
 
 
 
15%
 
 
____________________
(1)                                Represents variables for most heavily weighted scenario (the “base case”).

(2) 
For transactions where the initial CPR is higher than the final CPR, the initial CPR is held constant and the final CPR is not used.
Key Assumptions in Base Case Expected Loss Estimates Second Lien RMBS
Key Assumptions in Base Case Expected Loss Estimates
Second Lien RMBS(1)

HELOC key assumptions
As of
September 30, 2015
 
As of
June 30, 2015
 
As of
December 31, 2014
 
Range
 
Weighted Average
 
Range
 
Weighted Average
 
Range
 
Weighted Average
Plateau CDR
6.0
%
24.0%
 
9.5%
 
5.3
%
23.3%
 
8.9%
 
2.8
%
6.8%
 
4.1%
Final CDR trended down to
0.5
%
3.2%
 
1.2%
 
0.5
%
3.2%
 
1.2%
 
0.5
%
3.2%
 
1.2%
Period until final CDR
34 months
 
 
 
34 months
 
 
 
34 months
 
 
Initial CPR
9.8%
 
9.8%
 
9.3%
 
9.3%
 
6.9
%
21.8%
 
11.0%
Final CPR(2)
10.0
%
15.0%
 
13.3%
 
10.0
%
15.0%
 
13.25%
 
15.0
%
21.8%
 
15.5%
Loss severity
90.0
%
98.0%
 
90.3%
 
90.0
%
98.0%
 
90.5%
 
90.0
%
98.0%
 
90.4%
 
Closed-end second lien key assumptions
As of
September 30, 2015
 
As of
June 30, 2015
 
As of
December 31, 2014
 
Range
 
Weighted Average
 
Range
 
Weighted Average
 
Range
 
Weighted Average
Plateau CDR
6.0
%
19.7%
 
10.2%
 
6.0
%
21.4%
 
10.8%
 
5.5
%
12.5%
 
7.2%
Final CDR trended down to
3.5
%
9.2%
 
4.8%
 
3.5
%
9.2%
 
4.8%
 
3.5
%
9.1%
 
4.9%
Period until final CDR
34 months
 
 
 
34 months
 
 
 
34 months
 
 
Initial CPR
5.7
%
15.1%
 
9%
 
5.3
%
13.4%
 
8.6%
 
2.8
%
13.9%
 
9.9%
Final CPR(2)
15.0
%
15.1%
 
15%
 
15%
 
 
 
15%
 
 
Loss severity
98%
 
 
 
98%
 
 
 
98%
 
 
____________________
(1)
Represents variables for most heavily weighted scenario (the “base case”).

(2) 
For transactions where the initial CPR is higher than the final CPR, the initial CPR is held constant and the final CPR is not used.
Components of Development and Accretion Amounts of Estimated Recoveries
The following table provides a breakdown of the development and accretion amount in the roll forward of estimated recoveries associated with claims for breaches of R&W.

Components of R&W Development

 
Third Quarter
 
Nine Months
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015

2014
 
(in millions)
Estimated increase (decrease) in defaults that will result in additional (lower) breaches
$
(16
)
 
$
(4
)
 
$
(65
)
 
$
(15
)
Inclusion or removal of deals with breaches of R&W during period

 

 
0

 

Change in recovery assumptions

 
4

 

 
31

Settlements and anticipated settlements
14

 
90

 
14

 
96

Accretion of discount on balance
1

 
3

 
3

 
48

Total
$
(1
)
 
$
93

 
$
(48
)
 
$
160