Consolidated Variable Interest Entities

Consolidated FG VIEs

The Company provides financial guaranties with respect to debt obligations of special purpose entities, including VIEs. Assured Guaranty does not act as the servicer or collateral manager for any VIE obligations insured by its companies. The transaction structure generally provides certain financial protections to the Company. This financial protection can take several forms, the most common of which are overcollateralization, first loss protection (or subordination) and excess spread. In the case of overcollateralization (i.e., the principal amount of the securitized assets exceeds the principal amount of the structured finance obligations guaranteed by the Company), the structure allows defaults of the securitized assets before a default is experienced on the structured finance obligation guaranteed by the Company. In the case of first loss, the financial guaranty insurance policy only covers a senior layer of losses experienced by multiple obligations issued by special purpose entities, including VIEs. The first loss exposure with respect to the assets is either retained by the seller or sold off in the form of equity or mezzanine debt to other investors. In the case of excess spread, the financial assets contributed to special purpose entities, including VIEs, generate cash flows that are in excess of the interest payments on the debt issued by the special purpose entity. Such excess spread is typically distributed through the transaction’s cash flow waterfall and may be used to create additional credit enhancement, applied to redeem debt issued by the special purpose entities, including VIEs (thereby, creating additional overcollateralization), or distributed to equity or other investors in the transaction.

Assured Guaranty is not primarily liable for the debt obligations issued by the VIEs it insures and would only be required to make payments on those insured debt obligations in the event that the issuer of such debt obligations defaults on any principal or interest due and only for the amount of the shortfall. AGL’s and its Subsidiaries’ creditors do not have any rights with regard to the collateral supporting the debt issued by the FG VIEs. Proceeds from sales, maturities, prepayments and interest from such underlying collateral may only be used to pay Debt Service on VIE liabilities. Net fair value gains and losses on FG VIEs are expected to reverse to zero at maturity of the VIE debt, except for net premiums received and net claims paid by Assured Guaranty under the financial guaranty insurance contract. The Company’s estimate of expected loss to be paid for FG VIEs is included in Note 6, Expected Loss to be Paid.

As part of the terms of its financial guaranty contracts, the Company obtains certain protective rights with respect to the VIE that are triggered by the occurrence of certain events, such as failure to be in compliance with a covenant due to poor deal performance or a deterioration in a servicer or collateral manager's financial condition. At deal inception, the Company typically is not deemed to control a VIE; however, once a trigger event occurs, the Company's control of the VIE typically increases. The Company continuously evaluates its power to direct the activities that most significantly impact the economic performance of VIEs that have debt obligations insured by the Company and, accordingly, where the Company is obligated to absorb VIE losses or receive benefits that could potentially be significant to the VIE. The Company obtains protective rights under its insurance contracts that give the Company additional controls over a VIE if there is either deterioration of deal performance or in the financial health of the deal servicer. The Company is deemed to be the control party for certain VIEs under GAAP, typically when its protective rights give it the power to both terminate and replace the deal servicer, which are characteristics specific to the Company's financial guaranty contracts. If the protective rights that could make the Company the control party have not been triggered, then the VIE is not consolidated. If the Company is deemed no longer to have those protective rights, the transaction is deconsolidated.

Number of FG VIEs Consolidated



	Nine Months
	2015	2014

Beginning of the period, December 31	32	40
Radian Asset Acquisition	4	—
Consolidated (1)	1	1
Deconsolidated (1)	—	(8	)
Matured	—	(2	)
End of the period, September 30	37	31

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(1)	Net loss on consolidation was $26 million in Nine Months 2015, and net gain on deconsolidation was $120 million in Nine Months 2014, and recorded in “fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs” in the consolidated statement of operations.

The total unpaid principal balance for the FG VIEs’ assets that were over 90 days or more past due was approximately $198 million at September 30, 2015 and $183 million at December 31, 2014. The aggregate unpaid principal of the FG VIEs’ assets was approximately $923 million greater than the aggregate fair value at September 30, 2015, excluding the effect of R&W settlements and restricted cash. The aggregate unpaid principal of the FG VIEs’ assets was approximately $941 million greater than the aggregate fair value at December 31, 2014, excluding the effect of R&W settlements and restricted cash.

The change in the instrument-specific credit risk of the FG VIEs’ assets held as of September 30, 2015 that was recorded in the consolidated statements of operations for Third Quarter 2015 and Nine Months 2015 were gains of $56 million and $25 million, respectively. The change in the instrument-specific credit risk of the FG VIEs’ assets held as of September 30, 2014 that was recorded in the consolidated statements of operations for Third Quarter 2014 and Nine Months 2014 were gains of $86 million and $140 million, respectively. To calculate the instrument specific credit risk, the changes in the fair value of the FG VIE assets are allocated between those changes that are due to the instrument specific credit risk and those are due to other factors, including interest rates. The instrument specific credit risk amount is determined by using expected contractual cash flows versus current expected cash flows discounted at original contractual rate. The net present value is calculated by discounting the expected cash flows of the underlying security, excluding the Company’s financial guaranty insurance, at the relevant effective interest rate.

The unpaid principal for FG VIE liabilities with recourse was $2,045 million and $1,912 million as of September 30, 2015 and December 31, 2014, respectively. FG VIE liabilities with recourse will mature at various dates ranging from 2025 to 2046. The aggregate unpaid principal balance of the FG VIE liabilities with and without recourse was approximately $981 million greater than the aggregate fair value of the FG VIEs’ liabilities as of September 30, 2015. The aggregate unpaid principal balance was approximately $916 million greater than the aggregate fair value of the FG VIEs' liabilities as of December 31, 2014.

The table below shows the carrying value of the consolidated FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities in the consolidated financial statements, segregated by the types of assets that collateralize their respective debt obligations for FG VIE liabilities with recourse.

Consolidated FG VIEs

By Type of Collateral



	As of September 30, 2015 (1)				As of December 31, 2014
	Assets		Liabilities		Assets		Liabilities
	(in millions)
With recourse:
U.S. RMBS first lien	$	713	$	572	$	632	$	581
U.S. RMBS second lien	208		295		238		327
Other	448		448		369		369
Total with recourse	1,369		1,315		1,239		1,277
Without recourse	178		167		163		142
Total	$	1,547	$	1,482	$	1,402	$	1,419

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(1)	The September 30, 2015 amounts include $115 million of FG VIE assets and $111 million of FG VIE liabilities acquired from Radian Asset.

The consolidation of FG VIEs has a significant effect on net income and shareholder’s equity due to (1) changes in fair value gains (losses) on FG VIE assets and liabilities, (2) the elimination of premiums and losses related to the AGC and AGM FG VIE liabilities with recourse and (3) the elimination of investment balances related to the Company’s purchase of AGC and AGM insured FG VIE debt. Upon consolidation of a FG VIE, the related insurance and, if applicable, the related investment balances, are considered intercompany transactions and therefore eliminated. Such eliminations are included in the table below to present the full effect of consolidating FG VIEs.

Effect of Consolidating FG VIEs on Net Income,

Cash Flows From Operating Activities and Shareholders’ Equity



	Third Quarter						Nine Months
	2015			2014			2015			2014
	(in millions)
Net earned premiums	$	(6	)	$	(5	)	$	(16	)	$	(27	)
Net investment income	(3		)	(2		)	(9		)	(8		)
Net realized investment gains (losses)	6			0			9			(5		)
Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs	2			50			0			232
Bargain purchase gain	—			—			2			—
Other income (loss)	0			0			0			(2		)
Loss and LAE	11			14			18			21
Effect on income before tax	10			57			4			211
Less: tax provision (benefit)	4			20			1			74
Effect on net income (loss)	$	6		$	37		$	3		$	137

Effect on cash flows from operating activities	$	11		$	18		$	44		$	57



	As of September 30, 2015			As of December 31, 2014
	(in millions)
Effect on shareholders’ equity (decrease) increase	$	(38	)	$	(44	)

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs represent the net change in fair value on the consolidated FG VIEs’ assets and liabilities. During Third Quarter 2015, the Company recorded a pre-tax net fair value gain on consolidated FG VIEs of $2 million. The primary driver of the gain was mark-to-market gains due to price appreciation on the FG VIE assets during the quarter resulting from improvements in the underlying collateral. During Nine Months 2015, the Company recorded a pre-tax net fair value loss on consolidated FG VIEs of less than $1 million. The primary driver of the loss was a pre-tax loss of $26 million on the consolidation of one new FG VIE which was mostly offset by net mark-to-market gains due to price appreciation on the FG VIE assets resulting from improvements in the underlying collateral.

During Third Quarter 2014, the Company recorded a pre-tax net fair value gain on consolidated FG VIEs of $50 million. This gain was primarily driven by price appreciation on the Company's FG VIE assets relating to HELOC transactions and principal payments. During Nine Months 2014 the Company recorded a pre-tax net fair value gain of consolidated FG VIEs of $232 million. The primary driver of this gain, $120 million, was a result of the deconsolidation of seven VIEs in first quarter 2014. There was an additional gain of $37 million resulting from the Company exercising its option to accelerate two second lien RMBS VIEs. These two VIEs were treated as maturities during the period.

Other Consolidated VIEs

In certain instances where the Company consolidates a VIE that was established as part of a loss mitigation negotiation settlement agreement that results in the termination of the original insured financial guaranty insurance or credit derivative contract the Company classifies the assets and liabilities of those VIEs in the line items that most accurately reflect the nature of the items, as opposed to within the FG VIE assets and FG VIE liabilities.

Non-Consolidated VIEs

As of September 30, 2015 and December 31, 2014, the Company had financial guaranty contracts outstanding for approximately 840 and 930 VIEs, respectively, that it did not consolidate. To date, the Company’s analyses have indicated that it does not have a controlling financial interest in any other VIEs and, as a result, they are not consolidated in the consolidated financial statements. The Company’s exposure provided through its financial guaranties with respect to debt obligations of special purpose entities is included within net par outstanding in Note 4, Outstanding Exposure.