Outstanding Exposure

The Company’s financial guaranty contracts are written in either insurance or credit derivative form, but collectively are considered financial guaranty contracts. The Company seeks to limit its exposure to losses by underwriting obligations that it views as investment grade at inception, although, as part of its loss mitigation strategy for existing troubled credits, it may underwrite new issuances that it views as below-investment-grade ("BIG"). The Company diversifies its insured portfolio across asset classes and, in the structured finance portfolio, requires rigorous subordination or collateralization requirements. Reinsurance is utilized in order to reduce net exposure to certain insured transactions.

Public finance obligations insured by the Company consist primarily of general obligation bonds supported by the taxing powers of U.S. state or municipal governmental authorities, as well as tax-supported bonds, revenue bonds and other obligations supported by covenants from state or municipal governmental authorities or other municipal obligors to impose and collect fees and charges for public services or specific infrastructure projects. The Company also includes within public finance obligations those obligations backed by the cash flow from leases or other revenues from projects serving substantial public purposes, including utilities, toll roads, health care facilities and government office buildings.

Structured finance obligations insured by the Company are generally issued by special purpose entities, including VIEs, and backed by pools of assets having an ascertainable cash flow or market value or other specialized financial obligations. Some of these VIEs are consolidated as described in Note 10, Consolidated Variable Interest Entities. Unless otherwise specified, the outstanding par and Debt Service amounts presented in this note include outstanding exposures on VIEs whether or not they are consolidated.

Surveillance Categories

The Company segregates its insured portfolio into investment grade and BIG surveillance categories to facilitate the appropriate allocation of resources to monitoring and loss mitigation efforts and to aid in establishing the appropriate cycle for periodic review for each exposure. BIG exposures include all exposures with internal credit ratings below BBB-. The Company’s internal credit ratings are based on internal assessments of the likelihood of default and loss severity in the event of default. Internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by the rating agencies and are generally reflective of an approach similar to that employed by the rating agencies, except that the Company's internal credit ratings focus on future performance, rather than lifetime performance.

The Company monitors its investment grade credits to determine whether any need to be internally downgraded to BIG and refreshes its internal credit ratings on individual credits in quarterly, semi-annual or annual cycles based on the Company’s view of the credit’s quality, loss potential, volatility and sector. Ratings on credits in sectors identified as under the most stress or with the most potential volatility are reviewed every quarter. The Company’s credit ratings on assumed credits are based on the Company’s reviews of low-rated credits or credits in volatile sectors, unless such information is not available, in which case, the ceding company’s credit rating of the transactions are used. The Company models the performance of many of its structured finance transactions as part of its periodic internal credit rating review of them.

Credits identified as BIG are subjected to further review to determine the probability of a loss. See Note 6, Expected Loss to be Paid, for additional information. Surveillance personnel then assign each BIG transaction to the appropriate BIG surveillance category based upon whether a future loss is expected and whether a claim has been paid. For surveillance purposes, the Company calculates present value using a constant discount rate of 4.5% or 5% depending on the insurance subsidiary. (Risk-free rates are used for calculating the expected loss for financial statement measurement purposes.)

More extensive monitoring and intervention is employed for all BIG surveillance categories, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. The Company expects “future losses” on a transaction when the Company believes there is at least a 50% chance that, on a present value basis, it will pay more claims in the future of that transaction than it will have reimbursed. The three BIG categories are:


•	BIG Category 1: Below-investment-grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make future losses possible, but for which none are currently expected.


•	BIG Category 2: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims which is a claim that the Company expects to be reimbursed within one year) have yet been paid.


•	BIG Category 3: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid.

Components of Outstanding Exposure

Unless otherwise noted, ratings disclosed herein on the Company's insured portfolio reflect its internal ratings. The Company classifies those portions of risks benefiting from reimbursement obligations collateralized by eligible assets held in trust in acceptable reimbursement structures as the higher of 'AA' or their current internal rating.

The Company purchases securities that it has insured, and for which it has expected losses to be paid, in order to

mitigate the economic effect of insured losses ("loss mitigation securities"). The Company excludes amounts attributable to loss mitigation securities (unless otherwise indicated) from par and Debt Service outstanding, because it manages such securities as investments and not insurance exposure.

Financial Guaranty

Debt Service Outstanding



	Gross Debt Service Outstanding				Net Debt Service Outstanding
	September 30, 2015		December 31, 2014		September 30, 2015		December 31, 2014
	(in millions)
Public finance	$	532,771	$	587,245	$	509,645	$	553,612
Structured finance	49,272		59,477		46,736		56,010
Total financial guaranty	$	582,043	$	646,722	$	556,381	$	609,622

In addition to the amounts shown in the table above, the Company’s net mortgage guaranty insurance debt service was approximately $105 million as of September 30, 2015 and $127 million as of December 31, 2014, related to loans originated in Ireland. As of September 30, 2015, the Company also had exposure to €12 million of reinsurance contracts relating to Spanish housing cooperatives risk.

Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating

As of September 30, 2015



	Public Finance U.S.				Public Finance Non-U.S.				Structured Finance U.S					Structured Finance Non-U.S				Total
Rating Category	Net Par Outstanding		%		Net Par Outstanding		%		Net Par Outstanding			%		Net Par Outstanding		%		Net Par Outstanding		%
	(dollars in millions)
AAA	$	3,067	1.0	%	$	702	2.4	%	$	16,730	(3)	47.2	%	$	3,028	49.7	%	$	23,527	6.3	%
AA	73,224		24.3		2,416		8.0		8,624			24.3		322		5.3		84,586		22.7
A	168,963		56.2		6,906		22.9		2,279			6.5		332		5.4		178,480		48.0
BBB	45,998		15.3		18,565		61.7		1,744			4.9		1,850		30.4		68,157		18.3
BIG	9,480		3.2		1,514		5.0		6,058			17.1		559		9.2		17,611		4.7
Total net par outstanding (1)(2)	$	300,732	100.0	%	$	30,103	100.0	%	$	35,435		100.0	%	$	6,091	100.0	%	$	372,361	100.0	%

_____________________


(1)	Excludes $1.6 billion of loss mitigation securities insured and held by the Company as of September 30, 2015, which are primarily BIG.


(2)	The September 30, 2015 amounts include $12.4 billion of net par acquired from Radian Asset.


(3)	Includes $1,351 million net par in the form of CDS that was upgraded from BIG as of September 30, 2015, in anticipation of the termination of such CDS that occurred early in the fourth quarter of 2015. In the fourth quarter of 2015, the exposure will be removed.

Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating

As of December 31, 2014



	Public Finance U.S.				Public Finance Non-U.S.				Structured Finance U.S				Structured Finance Non-U.S				Total
Rating Category	Net Par Outstanding		%		Net Par Outstanding		%		Net Par Outstanding		%		Net Par Outstanding		%		Net Par Outstanding		%
	(dollars in millions)
AAA	$	4,082	1.3	%	$	615	2.0	%	$	20,037	48.7	%	$	5,409	59.6	%	$	30,143	7.5	%
AA	90,464		28.1		2,785		8.9		8,213		19.9		503		5.5		101,965		25.3
A	176,298		54.7		7,192		22.9		2,940		7.1		445		4.9		186,875		46.3
BBB	43,429		13.5		19,363		61.7		1,795		4.4		1,912		21.1		66,499		16.4
BIG	7,850		2.4		1,404		4.5		8,186		19.9		807		8.9		18,247		4.5
Total net par outstanding (1)	$	322,123	100.0	%	$	31,359	100.0	%	$	41,171	100.0	%	$	9,076	100.0	%	$	403,729	100.0	%

_____________________


(1)	Excludes $1.3 billion of loss mitigation securities insured and held by the Company as of December 31, 2014, which are primarily BIG.

In addition to amounts shown in the tables above, the Company had outstanding commitments to provide guaranties of $504 million for public finance obligations as of September 30, 2015. The expiration dates for the public finance commitments range between October 1, 2015 and February 25, 2017, with $357 million expiring prior to the date of this filing and an additional $23 million expiring prior to December 31, 2015. The commitments are contingent on the satisfaction of all conditions set forth in them and may expire unused or be canceled at the counterparty’s request. Therefore, the total commitment amount does not necessarily reflect actual future guaranteed amounts.

Components of BIG Portfolio

Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding

(Insurance and Credit Derivative Form)

As of September 30, 2015



	BIG Net Par Outstanding								Net Par
	BIG 1		BIG 2		BIG 3		Total BIG		Outstanding
					(in millions)
U.S. public finance	$	7,132	$	2,212	$	136	$	9,480	$	300,732
Non-U.S. public finance	913		601		—		1,514		30,103
Structured finance:
First lien U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities ("RMBS"):
Prime first lien	228		57		27		312		465
Alt-A first lien	106		77		638		821		2,189
Option ARM	48		8		95		151		308
Subprime	153		474		709		1,336		3,759
Second lien U.S. RMBS:
Closed-end second lien	—		19		109		128		203
Home equity lines of credit (“HELOCs”)	609		36		737		1,382		1,476
Total U.S. RMBS	1,144		671		2,315		4,130		8,400
Triple-X life insurance transactions	—		—		216		216		2,750
Trust preferred securities (“TruPS”)	549		291		—		840		4,647
Student loans	—		80		85		165		1,823
Other structured finance	1,061		165		40		1,266		23,906
Total	$	10,799	$	4,020	$	2,792	$	17,611	$	372,361

Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding

(Insurance and Credit Derivative Form)

As of December 31, 2014



	BIG Net Par Outstanding								Net Par
	BIG 1		BIG 2		BIG 3		Total BIG		Outstanding
					(in millions)
U.S. public finance	$	6,577	$	1,156	$	117	$	7,850	$	322,123
Non-U.S. public finance	1,402		2		—		1,404		31,359
Structured finance:
First lien U.S. RMBS:
Prime first lien	68		33		252		353		471
Alt-A first lien	585		531		725		1,841		2,532
Option ARM	47		18		118		183		407
Subprime	156		654		765		1,575		4,051
Second lien U.S. RMBS:
Closed-end second lien	—		19		115		134		218
HELOCs	1,012		36		509		1,557		1,738
Total U.S. RMBS	1,868		1,291		2,484		5,643		9,417
Triple-X life insurance transactions	—		—		598		598		3,133
TruPS	997		—		336		1,333		4,326
Student loans	14		68		113		195		1,857
Other structured finance	1,007		172		45		1,224		31,514
Total	$	11,865	$	2,689	$	3,693	$	18,247	$	403,729

BIG Net Par Outstanding

and Number of Risks

As of September 30, 2015



	Net Par Outstanding						Number of Risks(2)
Description	Financial Guaranty Insurance(1)		Credit Derivative		Total		Financial Guaranty Insurance(1)	Credit Derivative	Total
	(dollars in millions)
BIG:
Category 1	$	9,552	$	1,247	$	10,799	239	13	252
Category 2	3,410		610		4,020		87	8	95
Category 3	2,620		172		2,792		125	12	137
Total BIG	$	15,582	$	2,029	$	17,611	451	33	484

BIG Net Par Outstanding

and Number of Risks

As of December 31, 2014



	Net Par Outstanding						Number of Risks(2)
Description	Financial Guaranty Insurance(1)		Credit Derivative		Total		Financial Guaranty Insurance(1)	Credit Derivative	Total
	(dollars in millions)
BIG:
Category 1	$	10,195	$	1,670	$	11,865	164	18	182
Category 2	2,135		554		2,689		75	14	89
Category 3	2,892		801		3,693		119	24	143
Total BIG	$	15,222	$	3,025	$	18,247	358	56	414

_____________________

(1) Includes net par outstanding for VIEs.


(2)	A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making Debt Service payments.

Exposure to Puerto Rico

The Company has insured exposure to general obligation bonds of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations aggregating $5.1 billion net par as of September 30, 2015, all of which are rated BIG. In Nine Months 2015, the Company's Puerto Rico exposures increased due to (1) net par acquired in the Radian Asset Acquisition, which equals $385 million as of September 30, 2015, and (2) a commutation of previously ceded Puerto Rico exposures.

Puerto Rico has experienced significant general fund budget deficits in recent years. These deficits have been covered primarily with the net proceeds of bond issuances, interim financings provided by Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico (“GDB”) and, in some cases, one-time revenue measures or expense adjustment measures. In addition to high debt levels, Puerto Rico faces a challenging economic environment.

In June 2014, the Puerto Rico legislature passed the Puerto Rico Public Corporation Debt Enforcement and Recovery Act (the "Recovery Act") in order to provide a legislative framework for certain public corporations experiencing severe financial stress to restructure their debt, including Puerto Rico Highway and Transportation Authority ("PRHTA") and Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority ("PREPA"). Subsequently, the Commonwealth stated PREPA might need to seek relief under the Recovery Act due to liquidity constraints. Investors in bonds issued by PREPA filed suit in the United States District Court for the District of Puerto Rico challenging the Recovery Act. On February 6, 2015, the U.S. District Court for the District of Puerto Rico ruled the Recovery Act is preempted by the U.S. Bankruptcy Code and is therefore void; on July 6, 2015, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit upheld that ruling. In addition, the Commonwealth's Resident Commissioner has introduced a bill to the U.S. Congress that, if passed, would enable the Commonwealth to authorize one or more of its public corporations to restructure their debts under chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code if they were to become insolvent. The passage of the Recovery Act, its subsequent invalidation, and the introduction of legislation that would enable the Commonwealth to authorize chapter 9 protection for its public corporations have resulted in uncertainty among investors about the rights of creditors of the Commonwealth and its related authorities and public corporations.

On June 28, 2015, Governor García Padilla of Puerto Rico (the “Governor”) publicly stated that the Commonwealth’s public debt, considering the current level of economic activity, is unpayable and that a comprehensive debt restructuring may be necessary. On June 29, 2015 a report commissioned by the Commonwealth and authored by former World Bank Chief Economist and former Deputy Director of the International Monetary Fund Dr. Anne Krueger and economists Dr. Ranjit Teja and Dr. Andrew Wolfe and calling for debt restructuring of all Puerto Rico bonds was released ("Krueger Report"). The Governor recently formed a task force to prepare a five-year stability plan and start broad debt negotiation discussions.

Puerto Rico Public Finance Corporation (“PFC”), a subsidiary of the GDB, failed to make most of an approximately $58 million Debt Service payment on August 3, 2015 and to make subsequent Debt Service payments because the Commonwealth’s legislature did not appropriate funds for payment. The Company does not insure any obligations of the PFC. Also on August 3, 2015, the Commonwealth announced that it had temporarily suspended its monthly deposits to the general obligation redemption fund.

On September 9, 2015, the Working Group for the Fiscal and Economic Recovery of Puerto Rico (“Working Group”) established by the Governor published its “Puerto Rico Fiscal and Economic Growth Plan” (the “FEGP”). The FEGP projects that the Commonwealth would face a cumulative financing gap of $27.8 billion from fiscal year 2016 to fiscal year 2020 without corrective action. Various stakeholders and analysts have publicly questioned the accuracy of the $27.8 billion gap projected by the Working Group. The FEGP recommends economic development, structural, fiscal and institutional reform measures that it projects would reduce that gap to $14.0 billion. The Working Group asserts that the Commonwealth’s debt, including debt with a constitutional priority, is not sustainable. The FEGP includes a recommendation that the Commonwealth’s advisors begin to work on a voluntary exchange offer to its creditors as part of the FEGP. The FEGP does not have the force of law and implementation of its recommendations would require actions by the governments of the Commonwealth and of the United States as well as the cooperation and agreement of various creditors.

On October 21, 2015, the U.S. Treasury Department proposed a four-point plan for Puerto Rico which, most significantly, would extend some form of bankruptcy protection not only to Puerto Rico’s municipalities and instrumentalities but also the Commonwealth itself. The plan also calls for an independent fiscal oversight board. The Treasury Department’s plan requires congressional action to be implemented.

There have been a number of other proposals, plans and legislative initiatives offered in Puerto Rico and in the United States aimed at addressing Puerto Rico’s fiscal issues. The final shape of responses to Puerto Rico’s distress eventually enacted or implemented by Puerto Rico or the United States, if any, and the impact of any such actions on obligations insured by the Company, is uncertain and may differ substantially from the recommendations of the FEGP, the four-point plan offered by the Treasury Department, or any other proposals or plans offered to date or in the future.

S&P, Moody’s and Fitch Ratings have lowered the credit rating of the Commonwealth’s bonds and on its public corporations several times over the past approximately two years, and the Commonwealth has disclosed its liquidity has been adversely affected by rating agency downgrades and by the limited market access for its debt, and also noted it has relied on short-term financings and interim loans from the GDB and other private lenders, which reliance has constrained its liquidity and increased its near-term refinancing risk.

PREPA

As of September 30, 2015, the Company had $744 million insured net par outstanding of PREPA obligations. In August 2014, PREPA entered into forbearance agreements with the GDB, its bank lenders, and bondholders and financial guaranty insurers (including AGM and AGC) that hold or guarantee more than 60% of PREPA's outstanding bonds, in order to address its near-term liquidity issues. Creditors, including AGM and AGC, agreed not to exercise available rights and remedies until March 31, 2015, and the bank lenders agreed to extend the maturity of two revolving lines of credit to the same date. PREPA agreed it would continue to make principal and interest payments on its outstanding bonds, and interest payments on its lines of credit. It also agreed it would develop a five year business plan and a recovery program in respect of its operations; a preliminary business plan was released in December 2014. Subsequently, most of the parties extended these forbearance agreements several times.

On July 1, 2015, PREPA made full payment of the $416 million of principal and interest due on its bonds, including bonds insured by AGM and AGC. However, that payment was conditioned on and facilitated by AGM and AGC agreeing, also on July 1, to purchase a portion of $131 million of interest-bearing bonds to help replenish certain of the operating funds PREPA used to make the $416 million of principal and interest payments. On July 31, 2015, AGM and AGC purchased $74 million aggregate principal amount of those bonds.

On September 2, 2015, PREPA announced that on September 1, 2015, it and an ad hoc group of uninsured bondholders (the “Ad Hoc Group”) had reached an agreement on certain economic terms of a recovery plan, subject to certain terms and conditions. On September 22, 2015, PREPA announced it and a group of fuel-line lenders had reached an agreement on the economic terms of a recovery plan, subject to certain terms and conditions. Neither AGM nor AGC are parties to either of those agreements. Other than AGM, AGC, National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation (“National”) and Syncora Guarantee Inc. (together the "Monolines"), parties to the original forbearance agreements continued to extend the forbearance agreements through November 5, 2015, when, according to a public announcement from PREPA, those other parties entered into a restructuring support agreement formalizing the previously announced agreements.

PREPA continues to negotiate with the Monolines, including AGM and AGC. There can be no assurance that the negotiations will result in agreement or that the consensual recovery plan reportedly outlined in the recovery support agreement will be implemented. PREPA, during the pendency of the agreements, has suspended deposits into its Debt Service fund.

PRHTA

As of September 30, 2015, the Company had $909 million insured net par outstanding of PRHTA (Transportation revenue) bonds and $370 million net par of PRHTA (Highway revenue) bonds. In March 2015, legislation was passed in the Commonwealth that, among other things, provided for an increase in oil taxes that would benefit PRHTA, the transfer out of PRHTA of certain deficit-producing transit facilities, and a statutory lien on revenues at PRHTA, subject to certain conditions, including the issuance of at least $1.0 billion of bonds by the Puerto Rico Infrastructure Finance Authority ("PRIFA"). That legislative package would have supported proposals involving the GDB and PRIFA that contemplated PRIFA issuing up to $2.95 billion of bonds and a series of potential actions that would have, among other things, strengthened PRHTA. However, the Governor’s statement in late June 2015 that a comprehensive debt restructuring may be necessary has created uncertainty around this effort, and published reports suggest that there may not be a market for the debt issuance by PRIFA that was contemplated as part of a series of actions that would have strengthened PRHTA. In addition, because certain revenues supporting PRHTA are subject to a prior constitutional claim of the Commonwealth, the increased financial difficulties of the Commonwealth itself has increased the uncertainty regarding the full and timely receipt by PRHTA of such revenues.

Municipal Finance Agency

As of September 30, 2015, the Company had $387 million net par outstanding of bonds issued by the Puerto Rico Municipal Finance Agency (“MFA”) secured by a pledge of local property tax revenues. On October 13, 2015, the Company filed a motion to intervene in litigation between Centro de Recaudación de Ingresos Municipales (“CRIM”) and the GDB in which CRIM is seeking to ensure that the pledged tax revenues are, and will continue to be, available to support the MFA bonds. While the Company’s motion to intervene was denied, the GDB and CRIM have reported that they executed a new deed of trust that requires the GDB, as fiduciary, to keep the pledged tax revenues separate from any other GDB monies or accounts and that governs the manner in which the pledged revenues may be invested and dispersed.

The following tables show the Company’s insured exposure to general obligation bonds of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations.

Puerto Rico

Gross Par and Gross Debt Service Outstanding



	Gross Par Outstanding				Gross Debt Service Outstanding
	September 30, 2015		December 31, 2014		September 30, 2015		December 31, 2014
	(in millions)
Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act (1)	$	2,965	$	3,058	$	5,164	$	5,326
Not Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act	2,833		2,977		4,520		4,748
Total	$	5,798	$	6,035	$	9,684	$	10,074

____________________


(1)	On February 6, 2015, the U.S. District Court for the District of Puerto Rico ruled that the Recovery Act is preempted by the Federal Bankruptcy Code and is therefore void, and on July 6, 2015, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit upheld that ruling.

Puerto Rico

Net Par Outstanding



	As of September 30, 2015			As of December 31, 2014
	Total (1)		Internal Rating	Total		Internal Rating
	(in millions)
Exposures Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act:
PRHTA (Transportation revenue)	$	909	CCC-	$	844	BB-
PREPA	744		CC	772		B-
Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority	388		CCC	384		BB-
PRHTA (Highway revenue)	370		CCC	273		BB
Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority	164		CCC-	174		BB-
Total	2,575			2,447

Exposures Not Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act:
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds	1,620		CCC	1,672		BB
MFA	387		CCC-	399		BB-
Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation	269		CCC+	269		BBB
Puerto Rico Public Buildings Authority	188		CCC	100		BB
GDB	33		CCC	33		BB
PRIFA	18		CCC-	18		BB-
University of Puerto Rico	1		CCC-	1		BB-
Total	2,516			2,492
Total net exposure to Puerto Rico	$	5,091		$	4,939

____________________


(1)	As of September 30, 2015, the Company's Puerto Rico exposures increased due to (1) net par of $385 million acquired in the Radian Asset Acquisition, of which $21 million was of PREPA and $166 million of PRHTA, and (2) a commutation of previously ceded Puerto Rico exposures.

The following table shows the scheduled amortization of the insured general obligation bonds of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations. The Company guarantees payments of interest and principal when those amounts are scheduled to be paid and cannot be required to pay on an accelerated basis. In the event that obligors default on their obligations, the Company would only be required to pay the shortfall between the principal and interest due in any given period and the amount paid by the obligors.

Amortization Schedule of Puerto Rico Net Par Outstanding

and Net Debt Service Outstanding

As of September 30, 2015



	Scheduled Net Par Amortization						Scheduled Net Debt Service Amortization
	Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act		Not Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act		Total		Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act		Not Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act		Total
	(in millions)
2015 (October 1 - December 31)	$	0	$	33	$	33	$	2	$	34	$	36
2016	98		204		302		229		330		559
2017	51		171		222		175		289		464
2018	56		123		179		178		232		410
2019	74		130		204		192		232		424
2020	87		183		270		202		280		482
2021	66		59		125		176		147		323
2022	47		68		115		153		152		305
2023	110		41		151		214		123		337
2024	89		85		174		188		164		352
2025-2029	619		395		1,014		1,032		723		1,755
2030-2034	506		474		980		788		713		1,501
2035 -2039	429		284		713		569		384		953
2040 -2044	97		266		363		171		297		468
2045 -2047	246		—		246		272		—		272
Total	$	2,575	$	2,516	$	5,091	$	4,541	$	4,100	$	8,641

Exposure to the Selected European Countries

Several European countries continue to experience significant economic, fiscal and/or political strains such that the likelihood of default on obligations with a nexus to those countries may be higher than the Company anticipated when such factors did not exist. The European countries where the Company has exposure and believes heightened uncertainties exist are: Hungary, Italy, Portugal and Spain (collectively, the “Selected European Countries”). The Company is closely monitoring its exposures in the Selected European Countries where it believes heightened uncertainties exist. The Company’s direct economic exposure to the Selected European Countries (based on par for financial guaranty contracts and notional amount for financial guaranty contracts accounted for as derivatives) is shown in the following table, net of ceded reinsurance.

Net Direct Economic Exposure to Selected European Countries(1)

As of September 30, 2015



	Hungary		Italy		Portugal		Spain		Total
	(in millions)
Sovereign and sub-sovereign exposure:
Non-infrastructure public finance (2)	$	—	$	815	$	89	$	256	$	1,160
Infrastructure finance	279		11		—		123		413
Total sovereign and sub-sovereign exposure	279		826		89		379		1,573
Non-sovereign exposure:
Regulated utilities	—		218		—		—		218
RMBS and other structured finance	176		254		—		13		443
Total non-sovereign exposure	176		472		—		13		661
Total	$	455	$	1,298	$	89	$	392	$	2,234
Total BIG (See Note 6)	$	385	$	—	$	89	$	392	$	866

____________________

(1)

While the Company’s exposures are shown in U.S. dollars, the obligations the Company insures are in various currencies, primarily Euros. One of the residential mortgage-backed securities included in the table above includes residential mortgages in both Italy and Germany, and only the portion of the transaction equal to the portion of the original mortgage pool in Italian mortgages is shown in the table.


(2)	The exposure shown in the “Non-infrastructure public finance” category is from transactions backed by receivable payments from sub-sovereigns in Italy, Spain and Portugal. Sub-sovereign debt is debt issued by a governmental entity or government backed entity, or supported by such an entity, that is other than direct sovereign debt of the ultimate governing body of the country.

When the Company directly insures an obligation, it assigns the obligation to a geographic location or locations based on its view of the geographic location of the risk. The Company may also have direct exposures to the Selected European Countries in business assumed from unaffiliated monoline insurance companies, in which case the Company depends upon geographic information provided by the primary insurer.

The Company has excluded from the exposure tables above its indirect economic exposure to the Selected European Countries through policies it provides on pooled corporate and commercial receivables transactions. The Company calculates indirect exposure to a country by multiplying the par amount of a transaction insured by the Company times the percent of the relevant collateral pool reported as having a nexus to the country. On that basis, the Company has calculated exposure of $278 million to Selected European Countries (plus Greece) in transactions with $4.8 billion of net par outstanding. The indirect exposure to credits with a nexus to Greece is $8 million across several highly rated pooled corporate obligations with net par outstanding of $333 million.