Expected Loss to be Paid (Tables)

6 Months Ended

Jun. 30, 2015

Net Expected Loss to be Paid After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W Roll Forward

Net Expected Loss to be Paid

After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W

Roll Forward



	Second Quarter 2015			Six Months 2015
	(in millions)
Net expected loss to be paid, beginning of period	$	1,154		$	1,169
Net expected loss to be paid on Radian Asset portfolio as of April 1, 2015	190			190
Economic loss development due to:
Accretion of discount	7			14
Changes in discount rates	(47		)	(40		)
Changes in timing and assumptions	232			215
Total economic loss development	192			189
Paid losses	(26		)	(38		)
Net expected loss to be paid, end of period	$	1,510		$	1,510

Net Expected Loss to be Paid

After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W

Roll Forward by Sector

Second Quarter 2015



	Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of March 31, 2015			Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) on Radian Asset portfolio as of April 1, 2015			Economic Loss Development			(Paid) Recovered Losses (1)			Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of June 30, 2015 (2)
	(in millions)
Public Finance:
U.S. public finance	$	310		$	81		$	226		$	(4	)	$	613
Non-U.S public finance	42			4			(2		)	—			44
Public Finance	352			85			224			(4		)	657
Structured Finance:
U.S. RMBS:
First lien:
Prime first lien	3			—			(1		)	(1		)	1
Alt-A first lien	289			7			(16		)	(15		)	265
Option ARM	(16		)	0			(3		)	1			(18		)
Subprime	293			(4		)	(6		)	(10		)	273
Total first lien	569			3			(26		)	(25		)	521
Second lien:
Closed-end second lien	11			—			(3		)	1			9
HELOCs	(10		)	1			(3		)	6			(6		)
Total second lien	1			1			(6		)	7			3
Total U.S. RMBS	570			4			(32		)	(18		)	524
Triple-X life insurance transactions	165			—			2			(2		)	165
TruPS	14			—			(4		)	—			10
Student loans	62			—			1			(5		)	58
Other structured finance	(9		)	101			1			3			96
Structured Finance	802			105			(32		)	(22		)	853
Total	$	1,154		$	190		$	192		$	(26	)	$	1,510

Net Expected Loss to be Paid

After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W

Roll Forward by Sector

Second Quarter 2014



	Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of March 31, 2014			Economic Loss Development			(Paid) Recovered Losses (1)			Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of June 30, 2014
	(in millions)
Public Finance:
U.S. public finance	$	281		$	82		$	(24	)	$	339
Non-U.S public finance	57			(5		)	—			52
Public Finance	338			77			(24		)	391
Structured Finance:
U.S. RMBS:
First lien:
Prime first lien	18			(7		)	—			11
Alt-A first lien	308			4			(11		)	301
Option ARM	(28		)	(24		)	1			(51		)
Subprime	295			6			40			341
Total first lien	593			(21		)	30			602
Second lien:
Closed-end second lien	(4		)	(5		)	—			(9		)
HELOCs	(109		)	(33		)	25			(117		)
Total second lien	(113		)	(38		)	25			(126		)
Total U.S. RMBS	480			(59		)	55			476
Triple-X life insurance transactions	87			1			(1		)	87
TruPS	32			0			—			32
Student loans	54			4			—			58
Other structured finance	(7		)	0			(2		)	(9		)
Structured Finance	646			(54		)	52			644
Total	$	984		$	23		$	28		$	1,035

Net Expected Loss to be Paid

After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W

Roll Forward by Sector

Six Months 2015



	Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of December 31, 2014 (2)			Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) on Radian Asset portfolio as of April 1, 2015			Economic Loss Development			(Paid) Recovered Losses (1)			Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of June 30, 2015 (2)
	(in millions)
Public Finance:
U.S. public finance	$	303		$	81		$	235		$	(6	)	$	613
Non-U.S public finance	45			4			(5		)	—			44
Public Finance	348			85			230			(6		)	657
Structured Finance:
U.S. RMBS:
First lien:
Prime first lien	4			—			(1		)	(2		)	1
Alt-A first lien	304			7			(21		)	(25		)	265
Option ARM	(16		)	0			1			(3		)	(18		)
Subprime	303			(4		)	(7		)	(19		)	273
Total first lien	595			3			(28		)	(49		)	521
Second lien:
Closed-end second lien	8			—			(2		)	3			9
HELOCs	(19		)	1			2			10			(6		)
Total second lien	(11		)	1			0			13			3
Total U.S. RMBS	584			4			(28		)	(36		)	524
Triple-X life insurance transactions	161			—			7			(3		)	165
TruPS	23			—			(13		)	—			10
Student loans	68			—			(5		)	(5		)	58
Other structured finance	(15		)	101			(2		)	12			96
Structured Finance	821			105			(41		)	(32		)	853
Total	$	1,169		$	190		$	189		$	(38	)	$	1,510

Net Expected Loss to be Paid

After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W

Roll Forward by Sector

Six Months 2014



	Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of December 31, 2013			Economic Loss Development			(Paid) Recovered Losses (1)			Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of June 30, 2014
	(in millions)
Public Finance:
U.S. public finance	$	264		$	105		$	(30	)	$	339
Non-U.S public finance	57			(5		)	—			52
Public Finance	321			100			(30		)	391
Structured Finance:
U.S. RMBS:
First lien:
Prime first lien	21			(10		)	—			11
Alt-A first lien	304			12			(15		)	301
Option ARM	(9		)	(39		)	(3		)	(51		)
Subprime	304			(1		)	38			341
Total first lien	620			(38		)	20			602
Second lien:
Closed-end second lien	(11		)	—			2			(9		)
HELOCs	(116		)	(31		)	30			(117		)
Total second lien	(127		)	(31		)	32			(126		)
Total U.S. RMBS	493			(69		)	52			476
Triple-X life insurance transactions	75			14			(2		)	87
TruPS	51			(19		)	—			32
Student loans	52			6			—			58
Other structured finance	(10		)	3			(2		)	(9		)
Structured Finance	661			(65		)	48			644
Total	$	982		$	35		$	18		$	1,035

____________________

(1)

Net of ceded paid losses, whether or not such amounts have been settled with reinsurers. Ceded paid losses are typically settled 45 days after the end of the reporting period. Such amounts are recorded in reinsurance recoverable on paid losses included in other assets. The Company paid $5 million and $8 million in LAE for Second Quarter 2015 and 2014, respectively, and $9 million and $14 million in LAE for Six Months 2015 and 2014 , respectively.


(2)	Includes expected LAE to be paid of $15 million as of June 30, 2015 and $16 million as of December 31, 2014.

Net Expected Recoveries from Breaches of R&W Rollforward

Net Expected Recoveries from

Breaches of R&W Rollforward

Second Quarter 2015



	Future Net R&W Benefit as of March 31, 2015			Future Net R&W Benefit of Radian Asset as of April 1,2015		R&W Development and Accretion of Discount During Second Quarter 2015			R&W (Recovered) During Second Quarter 2015			Future Net R&W Benefit as of June 30, 2015 (1)
	(in millions)
U.S. RMBS:
First lien:
Prime first lien	$	1		$	—	$	—		$	—		$	1
Alt-A first lien	94			—		—			(1		)	93
Option ARM	(20		)	—		6			(19		)	(33		)
Subprime	87			1		(4		)	(3		)	81
Total first lien	162			1		2			(23		)	142
Second lien:
Closed-end second lien	83			1		2			(3		)	83
HELOC	—			—		—			—			—
Total second lien	83			1		2			(3		)	83
Total	$	245		$	2	$	4		$	(26	)	$	225

Net Expected Recoveries from

Breaches of R&W Rollforward

Second Quarter 2014



	Future Net R&W Benefit as of March 31, 2014		R&W Development and Accretion of Discount During Second Quarter 2014			R&W (Recovered) During Second Quarter 2014			Future Net R&W Benefit as of June 30, 2014
	(in millions)
U.S. RMBS:
First lien:
Prime first lien	$	3	$	—		$	—		$	3
Alt-A first lien	269		(2		)	(4		)	263
Option ARM	152		11			(19		)	144
Subprime	146		1			(48		)	99
Total first lien	570		10			(71		)	509
Second lien:
Closed-end second lien	95		—			(2		)	93
HELOC	56		9			(16		)	49
Total second lien	151		9			(18		)	142
Total	$	721	$	19		$	(89	)	$	651

Net Expected Recoveries from

Breaches of R&W Rollforward

Six Months 2015



	Future Net R&W Benefit as of December 31, 2014		Future Net R&W Benefit on Radian Asset portfolio as of April 1,2015		R&W Development and Accretion of Discount During 2015			R&W (Recovered) During 2015			Future Net R&W Benefit as of June 30, 2015 (1)
	(in millions)
U.S. RMBS:
First lien:
Prime first lien	$	2	$	—	$	(1	)	$	—		$	1
Alt-A first lien	106		—		(10		)	(3		)	93
Option ARM	15		—		(14		)	(34		)	(33		)
Subprime	109		1		(23		)	(6		)	81
Total first lien	232		1		(48		)	(43		)	142
Second lien:
Closed-end second lien	85		1		1			(4		)	83
HELOC	—		—		—			—			—
Total second lien	85		1		1			(4		)	83
Total	$	317	$	2	$	(47	)	$	(47	)	$	225

Net Expected Recoveries from

Breaches of R&W Rollforward

Six Months 2014



	Future Net R&W Benefit as of December 31, 2013		R&W Development and Accretion of Discount During 2014			R&W (Recovered) During 2014			Future Net R&W Benefit as of June 30, 2014
	(in millions)
U.S. RMBS:
First lien:
Prime first lien	$	4	$	(1	)	$	—		$	3
Alt-A first lien	274		1			(12		)	263
Option ARM	173		20			(49		)	144
Subprime	118		29			(48		)	99
Total first lien	569		49			(109		)	509
Second lien:
Closed-end second lien	98		(3		)	(2		)	93
HELOC	45		21			(17		)	49
Total second lien	143		18			(19		)	142
Total	$	712	$	67		$	(128	)	$	651

___________________

(1) See the section "Breaches of Representations and Warranties" below for eligible assets held in trust.

Net Expected Loss to be Paid By Accounting Model

Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered)

By Accounting Model

As of June 30, 2015



	Financial Guaranty Insurance			FG VIEs(1) and Other		Credit Derivatives(2)			Total
	(in millions)
Public Finance:
U.S. public finance	$	613		$	—	$	0		$	613
Non-U.S. public finance	44			—		0			44
Public Finance	657			—		0			657
Structured Finance:
U.S. RMBS:
First lien:
Prime first lien	2			—		(1		)	1
Alt-A first lien	261			16		(12		)	265
Option ARM	(20		)	—		2			(18		)
Subprime	151			62		60			273
Total first lien	394			78		49			521
Second lien:
Closed-end second lien	(25		)	30		4			9
HELOCs	(12		)	6		—			(6		)
Total second lien	(37		)	36		4			3
Total U.S. RMBS	357			114		53			524
Triple-X life insurance transactions	157			—		8			165
TruPS	0			—		10			10
Student loans	58			—		—			58
Other structured finance	35			19		42			96
Structured Finance	607			133		113			853
Total	$	1,264		$	133	$	113		$	1,510

Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered)

By Accounting Model

As of December 31, 2014



	Financial Guaranty Insurance			FG VIEs(1) and Other			Credit Derivatives(2)			Total
	(in millions)
Public Finance:
U.S. public finance	$	303		$	—		$	—		$	303
Non-U.S. public finance	45			—			—			45
Public Finance	348			—			—			348
Structured Finance:
U.S. RMBS:
First lien:
Prime first lien	2			—			2			4
Alt-A first lien	288			17			(1		)	304
Option ARM	(15		)	—			(1		)	(16		)
Subprime	163			71			69			303
Total first lien	438			88			69			595
Second lien:
Closed-end second lien	(27		)	31			4			8
HELOCs	(26		)	7			—			(19		)
Total second lien	(53		)	38			4			(11		)
Total U.S. RMBS	385			126			73			584
Triple-X life insurance transactions	153			—			8			161
TruPS	1			—			22			23
Student loans	68			—			—			68
Other structured finance	34			(4		)	(45		)	(15		)
Structured Finance	641			122			58			821
Total	$	989		$	122		$	58		$	1,169

___________________

(1) Refer to Note 10, Consolidated Variable Interest Entities.

(2) Refer to Note 9, Financial Guaranty Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives.

Schedule of Net Economic Loss Development

Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)

By Accounting Model

Second Quarter 2015



	Financial Guaranty Insurance			FG VIEs(1) and Other			Credit Derivatives(2)			Total
	(in millions)
Public Finance:
U.S. public finance	$	232		$	—		$	(6	)	$	226
Non-U.S. public finance	(2		)	—			—			(2		)
Public Finance	230			—			(6		)	224
Structured Finance:
U.S. RMBS:
First lien:
Prime first lien	(1		)	—			—			(1		)
Alt-A first lien	(12		)	(1		)	(3		)	(16		)
Option ARM	(4		)	—			1			(3		)
Subprime	—			(1		)	(5		)	(6		)
Total first lien	(17		)	(2		)	(7		)	(26		)
Second lien:
Closed-end second lien	(2		)	(2		)	1			(3		)
HELOCs	(5		)	2			—			(3		)
Total second lien	(7		)	—			1			(6		)
Total U.S. RMBS	(24		)	(2		)	(6		)	(32		)
Triple-X life insurance transactions	1			—			1			2
TruPS	—			—			(4		)	(4		)
Student loans	1			—			—			1
Other structured finance	(1		)	1			1			1
Structured Finance	(23		)	(1		)	(8		)	(32		)
Total	$	207		$	(1	)	$	(14	)	$	192

Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)

By Accounting Model

Second Quarter 2014



	Financial Guaranty Insurance			FG VIEs(1) and Other		Credit Derivatives(2)			Total
	(in millions)
Public Finance:
U.S. public finance	$	82		$	—	$	—		$	82
Non-U.S. public finance	(4		)	—		(1		)	(5		)
Public Finance	78			—		(1		)	77
Structured Finance:
U.S. RMBS:
First lien:
Prime first lien	1			—		(8		)	(7		)
Alt-A first lien	7			2		(5		)	4
Option ARM	(23		)	—		(1		)	(24		)
Subprime	4			3		(1		)	6
Total first lien	(11		)	5		(15		)	(21		)
Second lien:
Closed-end second lien	(1		)	1		(5		)	(5		)
HELOCs	(34		)	1		—			(33		)
Total second lien	(35		)	2		(5		)	(38		)
Total U.S. RMBS	(46		)	7		(20		)	(59		)
Triple-X life insurance transactions	—			—		1			1
TruPS	—			—		—			—
Student loans	4			—		—			4
Other structured finance	0			—		—			0
Structured Finance	(42		)	7		(19		)	(54		)
Total	$	36		$	7	$	(20	)	$	23

Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)

By Accounting Model

Six Months 2015



	Financial Guaranty Insurance			FG VIEs(1) and Other			Credit Derivatives(2)			Total
	(in millions)
Public Finance:
U.S. public finance	$	241		$	—		$	(6	)	$	235
Non-U.S. public finance	(5		)	—			—			(5		)
Public Finance	236			—			(6		)	230
Structured Finance:
U.S. RMBS:
First lien:
Prime first lien	0			—			(1		)	(1		)
Alt-A first lien	(10		)	(1		)	(10		)	(21		)
Option ARM	(3		)	—			4			1
Subprime	(4		)	3			(6		)	(7		)
Total first lien	(17		)	2			(13		)	(28		)
Second lien:
Closed-end second lien	(1		)	(1		)	—			(2		)
HELOCs	2			0			—			2
Total second lien	1			(1		)	—			—
Total U.S. RMBS	(16		)	1			(13		)	(28		)
Triple-X life insurance transactions	5			—			2			7
TruPS	(1		)	—			(12		)	(13		)
Student loans	(5		)	—			—			(5		)
Other structured finance	0			—			(2		)	(2		)
Structured Finance	(17		)	1			(25		)	(41		)
Total	$	219		$	1		$	(31	)	$	189

Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)

By Accounting Model

Six Months 2014



	Financial Guaranty Insurance			FG VIEs(1) and Other			Credit Derivatives(2)			Total
	(in millions)
Public Finance:
U.S. public finance	$	105		$	—		$	—		$	105
Non-U.S. public finance	(4		)	—			(1		)	(5		)
Public Finance	101			—			(1		)	100
Structured Finance:
U.S. RMBS:
First lien:
Prime first lien	1			—			(11		)	(10		)
Alt-A first lien	26			(10		)	(4		)	12
Option ARM	(39		)	1			(1		)	(39		)
Subprime	(4		)	1			2			(1		)
Total first lien	(16		)	(8		)	(14		)	(38		)
Second lien:
Closed-end second lien	(2		)	3			(1		)	—
HELOCs	(90		)	59			—			(31		)
Total second lien	(92		)	62			(1		)	(31		)
Total U.S. RMBS	(108		)	54			(15		)	(69		)
Triple-X life insurance transactions	13			—			1			14
TruPS	(1		)	—			(18		)	(19		)
Student loans	6			—			—			6
Other structured finance	2			(1		)	2			3
Structured Finance	(88		)	53			(30		)	(65		)
Total	$	13		$	53		$	(31	)	$	35

_________________

(1) Refer to Note 10, Consolidated Variable Interest Entities.

(2) Refer to Note 9, Financial Guaranty Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives.

Liquidation Rates and Key Assumptions in Base Case Expected Loss Estimates First Lien RMBS

First Lien Liquidation Rates



	June 30, 2015	March 31, 2015	December 31, 2014
Current Loans Modified in the Previous 12 Months
Alt A and Prime	25%	25%	25%
Option ARM	25	25	25
Subprime	25	25	25
Current Loans Delinquent in the Previous 12 Months
Alt A and Prime	25	25	25
Option ARM	25	25	25
Subprime	25	25	25
30 – 59 Days Delinquent
Alt A and Prime	35	35	35
Option ARM	40	40	40
Subprime	35	35	35
60 – 89 Days Delinquent
Alt A and Prime	50	50	50
Option ARM	55	55	55
Subprime	40	40	40
90+ Days Delinquent
Alt A and Prime	60	60	60
Option ARM	65	65	65
Subprime	55	55	55
Bankruptcy
Alt A and Prime	45	45	45
Option ARM	50	50	50
Subprime	40	40	40
Foreclosure
Alt A and Prime	75	75	75
Option ARM	80	80	80
Subprime	70	70	70
Real Estate Owned
All	100	100	100

Key Assumptions in Base Case Expected Loss Estimates

First Lien RMBS(1)



	As of June 30, 2015					As of March 31, 2015					As of December 31, 2014
	Range				Weighted Average	Range				Weighted Average	Range				Weighted Average
Alt-A First Lien
Plateau CDR	1.7	%	-	13.3%	7.1%	2.6	%	–	13.1%	7.4%	2.0	%	–	13.4%	7.3%
Intermediate CDR	0.3	%	-	2.7%	1.4%	0.5	%	–	2.6%	1.5%	0.4	%	–	2.7%	1.5%
Period until intermediate CDR	48 months					48 months					48 months
Final CDR	0.1	%	-	0.7%	0.3%	0.1	%	–	0.7%	0.3%	0.1	%	–	0.7%	0.3%
Initial loss severity:
2005 and prior	60.0%					60.0%					60.0%
2006	70.0%					70.0%					70.0%
2007	65.0%					65.0%					65.0%
Initial conditional prepayment rate ("CPR")	1.6	%	-	27.7%	8.5%	2.7	%	–	22.4%	8.1%	1.7	%	–	21.0%	7.7%
Final CPR(2)	15.0	%	-	27.7%	15.3%	15.0	%	–	22.4%	15.2%	15%
Option ARM
Plateau CDR	4.0	%	-	12.1%	9.2%	4.5	%	–	12.9%	9.9%	4.3	%	–	14.2%	10.6%
Intermediate CDR	0.8	%	-	2.4%	1.8%	0.9	%	–	2.6%	2.0%	0.9	%	–	2.8%	2.1%
Period until intermediate CDR	48 months					48 months					48 months
Final CDR	0.2	%	-	0.6%	0.5%	0.2	%	–	0.6%	0.5%	0.2	%	–	0.7%	0.5%
Initial loss severity:
2005 and prior	60.0%					60.0%					60.0%
2006	70.0%					70.0%					70.0%
2007	65.0%					65.0%					65.0%
Initial CPR	1.6	%	-	12.3%	5.0%	1.8	%	–	12.7%	4.9%	1.1	%	–	11.8%	4.9%
Final CPR(2)	15%					15%					15%
Subprime
Plateau CDR	4.9	%	-	13.5%	9.7%	4.8	%	–	14.4%	10.2%	4.9	%	–	15.0%	10.6%
Intermediate CDR	1.0	%	-	2.7%	1.9%	1.0	%	–	2.9%	2.0%	1.0	%	–	3.0%	2.1%
Period until intermediate CDR	48 months					48 months					48 months
Final CDR	0.2	%	-	0.7%	0.4%	0.2	%	–	0.7%	0.4%	0.2	%	–	0.7%	0.4%
Initial loss severity:
2005 and prior	75.0%					75.0%					75.0%
2006	90.0%					90.0%					90.0%
2007	90.0%					90.0%					90.0%
Initial CPR	0.0	%	-	8.7%	4.0%	0.0	%	–	9.7%	4.7%	0.0	%	–	10.5%	6.1%
Final CPR(2)	15%					15%					15%

____________________

(1) Represents variables for most heavily weighted scenario (the “base case”).


(2)	For transactions where the initial CPR is higher than the final CPR, the initial CPR is held constant and the final CPR is not used.

Key Assumptions in Base Case Expected Loss Estimates Second Lien RMBS

Key Assumptions in Base Case Expected Loss Estimates

Second Lien RMBS(1)



HELOC key assumptions	As of June 30, 2015					As of March 31, 2015					As of December 31, 2014
	Range				Weighted Average	Range				Weighted Average	Range				Weighted Average
Plateau CDR	5.3	%	–	23.3%	8.9%	2.3	%	–	7.5%	4.4%	2.8	%	–	6.8%	4.1%
Final CDR trended down to	0.5	%	–	3.2%	1.2%	0.5	%	–	3.2%	1.2%	0.5	%	–	3.2%	1.2%
Period until final CDR	34 months					34 months					34 months
Initial CPR	9.3%				9.3%	6.9	%	–	23.2%	10.2%	6.9	%	–	21.8%	11.0%
Final CPR(2)	10.0	%	–	15.0%	13.25%	10.0	%	–	23.2%	15.2%	15.0	%	–	21.8%	15.5%
Loss severity	90.0	%	–	98.0%	90.5%	90.0	%	–	98.0%	90.4%	90.0	%	–	98.0%	90.4%



Closed-end second lien key assumptions	As of June 30, 2015					As of March 31, 2015					As of December 31, 2014
	Range				Weighted Average	Range				Weighted Average	Range				Weighted Average
Plateau CDR	6.0	%	–	21.4%	10.8%	4.7	%	–	12.4%	6.9%	5.5	%	–	12.5%	7.2%
Final CDR trended down to	3.5	%	–	9.2%	4.8%	3.5	%	–	9.1%	4.9%	3.5	%	–	9.1%	4.9%
Period until final CDR	34 months					34 months					34 months
Initial CPR	5.3	%	–	13.4%	8.6%	3.4	%	–	11.8%	7.6%	2.8	%	–	13.9%	9.9%
Final CPR(2)	15%					15%					15%
Loss severity	98%					98%					98%

____________________


(1)	Represents variables for most heavily weighted scenario (the “base case”).


(2)	For transactions where the initial CPR is higher than the final CPR, the initial CPR is held constant and the final CPR is not used.

Components of Development and Accretion Amounts of Estimated Recoveries

The following table provides a breakdown of the development and accretion amount in the roll forward of estimated recoveries associated with claims for breaches of R&W.

Components of R&W Development



	Second Quarter					Six Months
	2015		2014			2015			2014
	(in millions)
Estimated increase (decrease) in defaults that will result in additional (lower) breaches(1)	$	3	$	(11	)	$	(49	)	$	(11	)
Inclusion or removal of deals with breaches of R&W during period	—		—			0			—
Change in recovery assumptions	—		17			—			27
Settlements and anticipated settlements	—		10			—			45
Accretion of discount on balance	1		3			2			6
Total	$	4	$	19		$	(47	)	$	67

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(1)	The negative R&W development is offset by higher anticipated cash flows in the covered transactions that were related to a third party settlement.