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Expected Loss to be Paid
 6 Months Ended
Jun. 30, 2015
Expected Losses [Abstract]  
Expected Loss to be Paid
Expected Loss to be Paid
 
Loss Estimation Process

The Company’s loss reserve committees estimate expected loss to be paid for all contracts. Surveillance personnel present analyses related to potential losses to the Company’s loss reserve committees for consideration in estimating the expected loss to be paid. Such analyses include the consideration of various scenarios with corresponding probabilities assigned to them. Depending upon the nature of the risk, the Company’s view of the potential size of any loss and the information available to the Company, that analysis may be based upon individually developed cash flow models, internal credit rating assessments and sector-driven loss severity assumptions or judgmental assessments. In the case of its assumed business, the Company may conduct its own analysis as just described or, depending on the Company’s view of the potential size of any loss and the information available to the Company, the Company may use loss estimates provided by ceding insurers. The Company monitors the performance of its transactions with expected losses and each quarter the Company’s loss reserve committees review and refresh their loss projection assumptions and scenarios and the probabilities they assign to those scenarios based on actual developments during the quarter and their view of future performance.

The financial guaranties issued by the Company insure the credit performance of the guaranteed obligations over an extended period of time, in some cases over 30 years, and in most circumstances, the Company has no right to cancel such financial guaranties. As a result, the Company's estimate of ultimate losses on a policy is subject to significant uncertainty over the life of the insured transaction. Credit performance can be adversely affected by economic, fiscal and financial market variability over the long duration of most contracts.

The determination of expected loss to be paid is an inherently subjective process involving numerous estimates, assumptions and judgments by management, using both internal and external data sources with regard to frequency, severity of loss, economic projections, governmental actions, negotiations and other factors that affect credit performance. These estimates, assumptions and judgments, and the factors on which they are based, may change materially over a quarter, and as a result the Company’s loss estimates may change materially over that same period. Changes over a quarter in the Company’s loss estimates for structured finance transactions generally will be influenced by factors impacting the performance of the assets supporting those transactions. For example, changes over a quarter in the Company’s loss estimates for its RMBS transactions may be influenced by such factors as the level and timing of loan defaults experienced; changes in housing prices; results from the Company’s loss mitigation activities; and other variables. Similarly, changes over a quarter in the Company’s loss estimates for municipal obligations supported by specified revenue streams, such as revenue bonds issued by toll road authorities, municipal utilities or airport authorities, generally will be influenced by factors impacting their revenue levels, such as changes in demand; changing demographics; and other economic factors, especially if the obligations do not benefit from financial support from other tax revenues or governmental authorities. On the other hand, changes over a quarter in the Company’s loss estimates for its tax-supported public finance transactions generally will be influenced by factors impacting the public issuer’s ability and willingness to pay, such as changes in the economy and population of the relevant area; changes in the issuer’s ability or willingness to raise taxes, decrease spending or receive federal assistance; new legislation; rating agency downgrades that reduce the issuer’s ability to refinance maturing obligations or issue new debt at a reasonable cost; changes in the priority or amount of pensions and other obligations owed to workers; developments in restructuring or settlement negotiations; and other political and economic factors.

The Company does not use traditional actuarial approaches to determine its estimates of expected losses. Actual losses will ultimately depend on future events or transaction performance and may be influenced by many interrelated factors that are difficult to predict. As a result, the Company's current estimates of probable and estimable losses may be subject to considerable volatility and may not reflect the Company's future ultimate claims paid.

The following tables present a roll forward of the present value of net expected loss to be paid for all contracts, whether accounted for as insurance, credit derivatives or FG VIEs, by sector, after the benefit for net expected recoveries for contractual breaches of representations and warranties ("R&W"). The Company used weighted average risk-free rates for U.S. dollar denominated obligations that ranged from 0.0% to 3.37% as of June 30, 2015 and 0.0% to 2.95% as of December 31, 2014.

Net Expected Loss to be Paid
After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W
Roll Forward

 
Second Quarter 2015
 
Six Months 2015
 
(in millions)
Net expected loss to be paid, beginning of period
$
1,154

 
$
1,169

Net expected loss to be paid on Radian Asset portfolio as of April 1, 2015
190

 
190

Economic loss development due to:
 
 
 
Accretion of discount
7

 
14

Changes in discount rates
(47
)
 
(40
)
Changes in timing and assumptions
232

 
215

Total economic loss development
192

 
189

Paid losses
(26
)
 
(38
)
Net expected loss to be paid, end of period
$
1,510

 
$
1,510


Net Expected Loss to be Paid
After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W
Roll Forward by Sector
Second Quarter 2015

 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid 
(Recovered)
as of
March 31, 2015
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid 
(Recovered)
on Radian Asset portfolio as of
April 1, 2015
 
Economic Loss
Development
 
(Paid)
Recovered
Losses (1)
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid 
(Recovered)
as of
June 30, 2015 (2)
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
310

 
$
81

 
$
226

 
$
(4
)
 
$
613

Non-U.S public finance
42

 
4

 
(2
)
 
—

 
44

Public Finance
352

 
85

 
224

 
(4
)
 
657

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

First lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Prime first lien
3

 
—

 
(1
)
 
(1
)
 
1

Alt-A first lien
289

 
7

 
(16
)
 
(15
)
 
265

Option ARM
(16
)
 
0

 
(3
)
 
1

 
(18
)
Subprime
293

 
(4
)
 
(6
)
 
(10
)
 
273

Total first lien
569

 
3

 
(26
)
 
(25
)
 
521

Second lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien
11

 
—

 
(3
)
 
1

 
9

HELOCs
(10
)
 
1

 
(3
)
 
6

 
(6
)
Total second lien
1

 
1

 
(6
)
 
7

 
3

Total U.S. RMBS
570

 
4

 
(32
)
 
(18
)
 
524

Triple-X life insurance transactions
165

 
—

 
2

 
(2
)
 
165

TruPS
14

 
—

 
(4
)
 
—

 
10

Student loans
62

 
—

 
1

 
(5
)
 
58

Other structured finance
(9
)
 
101

 
1

 
3

 
96

Structured Finance
802

 
105

 
(32
)
 
(22
)
 
853

Total
$
1,154

 
$
190

 
$
192

 
$
(26
)
 
$
1,510


Net Expected Loss to be Paid
After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W
Roll Forward by Sector
Second Quarter 2014

 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered)
as of
March 31, 2014
 
Economic Loss
Development
 
(Paid)
Recovered
Losses (1)
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered)
as of
June 30, 2014
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
281

 
$
82

 
$
(24
)
 
$
339

Non-U.S public finance
57

 
(5
)
 
—

 
52

Public Finance
338

 
77

 
(24
)
 
391

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 


U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

First lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Prime first lien
18

 
(7
)
 
—

 
11

Alt-A first lien
308

 
4

 
(11
)
 
301

Option ARM
(28
)
 
(24
)
 
1

 
(51
)
Subprime
295

 
6

 
40

 
341

Total first lien
593

 
(21
)
 
30

 
602

Second lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien
(4
)
 
(5
)
 
—

 
(9
)
HELOCs
(109
)
 
(33
)
 
25

 
(117
)
Total second lien
(113
)
 
(38
)
 
25

 
(126
)
Total U.S. RMBS
480

 
(59
)
 
55

 
476

Triple-X life insurance transactions
87

 
1

 
(1
)
 
87

TruPS
32

 
0

 
—

 
32

Student loans
54

 
4

 
—

 
58

Other structured finance
(7
)
 
0

 
(2
)
 
(9
)
Structured Finance
646

 
(54
)
 
52

 
644

Total
$
984

 
$
23

 
$
28

 
$
1,035


Net Expected Loss to be Paid
After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W
Roll Forward by Sector
Six Months 2015

 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid 
(Recovered)
as of
December 31, 2014 (2)
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid 
(Recovered)
on Radian Asset portfolio as of
April 1, 2015
 
Economic Loss
Development
 
(Paid)
Recovered
Losses (1)
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid 
(Recovered)
as of
June 30, 2015 (2)
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
303

 
$
81

 
$
235

 
$
(6
)
 
$
613

Non-U.S public finance
45

 
4

 
(5
)
 
—

 
44

Public Finance
348

 
85

 
230

 
(6
)
 
657

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

First lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Prime first lien
4

 
—

 
(1
)
 
(2
)
 
1

Alt-A first lien
304

 
7

 
(21
)
 
(25
)
 
265

Option ARM
(16
)
 
0

 
1

 
(3
)
 
(18
)
Subprime
303

 
(4
)
 
(7
)
 
(19
)
 
273

Total first lien
595

 
3

 
(28
)
 
(49
)
 
521

Second lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien
8

 
—

 
(2
)
 
3

 
9

HELOCs
(19
)
 
1

 
2

 
10

 
(6
)
Total second lien
(11
)
 
1

 
0

 
13

 
3

Total U.S. RMBS
584

 
4

 
(28
)
 
(36
)
 
524

Triple-X life insurance transactions
161

 
—

 
7

 
(3
)
 
165

TruPS
23

 
—

 
(13
)
 
—

 
10

Student loans
68

 
—

 
(5
)
 
(5
)
 
58

Other structured finance
(15
)
 
101

 
(2
)
 
12

 
96

Structured Finance
821

 
105

 
(41
)
 
(32
)
 
853

Total
$
1,169

 
$
190

 
$
189

 
$
(38
)
 
$
1,510


Net Expected Loss to be Paid
After Net Expected Recoveries for Breaches of R&W
Roll Forward by Sector
Six Months 2014

 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered)
as of
December 31, 2013
 
Economic Loss
Development
 
(Paid)
Recovered
Losses (1)
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered)
as of
June 30, 2014
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
264

 
$
105

 
$
(30
)
 
$
339

Non-U.S public finance
57

 
(5
)
 
—

 
52

Public Finance
321

 
100

 
(30
)
 
391

Structured Finance:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
21

 
(10
)
 
—

 
11

Alt-A first lien
304

 
12

 
(15
)
 
301

Option ARM
(9
)
 
(39
)
 
(3
)
 
(51
)
Subprime
304

 
(1
)
 
38

 
341

Total first lien
620

 
(38
)
 
20

 
602

Second lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Closed-end second lien
(11
)
 
—

 
2

 
(9
)
HELOCs
(116
)
 
(31
)
 
30

 
(117
)
Total second lien
(127
)
 
(31
)
 
32

 
(126
)
Total U.S. RMBS
493

 
(69
)
 
52

 
476

Triple-X life insurance transactions
75

 
14

 
(2
)
 
87

TruPS
51

 
(19
)
 
—

 
32

Student loans
52

 
6

 
—

 
58

Other structured finance
(10
)
 
3

 
(2
)
 
(9
)
Structured Finance
661

 
(65
)
 
48

 
644

Total
$
982

 
$
35

 
$
18

 
$
1,035

____________________
(1)
Net of ceded paid losses, whether or not such amounts have been settled with reinsurers. Ceded paid losses are typically settled 45 days after the end of the reporting period. Such amounts are recorded in reinsurance recoverable on paid losses included in other assets. The Company paid $5 million and $8 million in LAE for Second Quarter 2015 and 2014, respectively, and $9 million and $14 million in LAE for Six Months 2015 and 2014 , respectively.

(2)
Includes expected LAE to be paid of $15 million as of June 30, 2015 and $16 million as of December 31, 2014.


Net Expected Recoveries from
Breaches of R&W Rollforward
Second Quarter 2015
 
 
Future Net
R&W Benefit as of
March 31, 2015
 
Future Net
R&W Benefit of Radian Asset as of
April 1,2015
 
R&W Development
and Accretion of
Discount
During Second Quarter 2015
 
R&W (Recovered)
During Second Quarter 2015
 
Future Net
R&W Benefit as of
June 30, 2015 (1)
 
(in millions)
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
$
1

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
1

Alt-A first lien
94

 
—

 
—

 
(1
)
 
93

Option ARM
(20
)
 
—

 
6

 
(19
)
 
(33
)
Subprime
87

 
1

 
(4
)
 
(3
)
 
81

Total first lien
162

 
1

 
2

 
(23
)
 
142

Second lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Closed-end second lien
83

 
1

 
2

 
(3
)
 
83

HELOC
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

Total second lien
83

 
1

 
2

 
(3
)
 
83

Total
$
245

 
$
2

 
$
4

 
$
(26
)
 
$
225



Net Expected Recoveries from
Breaches of R&W Rollforward
Second Quarter 2014

 
Future Net
R&W Benefit as of
March 31, 2014
 
R&W Development
and Accretion of
Discount
During Second Quarter 2014
 
R&W (Recovered)
During Second Quarter 2014
 
Future Net
R&W Benefit as of
June 30, 2014
 
(in millions)
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
$
3

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
3

Alt-A first lien
269

 
(2
)
 
(4
)
 
263

Option ARM
152

 
11

 
(19
)
 
144

Subprime
146

 
1

 
(48
)
 
99

Total first lien
570

 
10

 
(71
)
 
509

Second lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Closed-end second lien
95

 
—

 
(2
)
 
93

HELOC
56

 
9

 
(16
)
 
49

Total second lien
151

 
9

 
(18
)
 
142

Total
$
721

 
$
19

 
$
(89
)
 
$
651



Net Expected Recoveries from
Breaches of R&W Rollforward
Six Months 2015
 
 
Future Net
R&W Benefit as of
December 31, 2014
 
Future Net
R&W Benefit on Radian Asset portfolio as of
April 1,2015
 
R&W Development
and Accretion of
Discount
During 2015
 
R&W (Recovered)
During 2015
 
Future Net
R&W Benefit as of
June 30, 2015 (1)
 
(in millions)
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
$
2

 
$
—

 
$
(1
)
 
$
—

 
$
1

Alt-A first lien
106

 
—

 
(10
)
 
(3
)
 
93

Option ARM
15

 
—

 
(14
)
 
(34
)
 
(33
)
Subprime
109

 
1

 
(23
)
 
(6
)
 
81

Total first lien
232

 
1

 
(48
)
 
(43
)
 
142

Second lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Closed-end second lien
85

 
1

 
1

 
(4
)
 
83

HELOC
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

Total second lien
85

 
1

 
1

 
(4
)
 
83

Total
$
317

 
$
2

 
$
(47
)
 
$
(47
)
 
$
225


 
Net Expected Recoveries from
Breaches of R&W Rollforward
Six Months 2014

 
Future Net
R&W Benefit as of
December 31, 2013
 
R&W Development
and Accretion of
Discount
During 2014
 
R&W (Recovered)
During 2014
 
Future Net
R&W Benefit as of
June 30, 2014
 
(in millions)
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
$
4

 
$
(1
)
 
$
—

 
$
3

Alt-A first lien
274

 
1

 
(12
)
 
263

Option ARM
173

 
20

 
(49
)
 
144

Subprime
118

 
29

 
(48
)
 
99

Total first lien
569

 
49

 
(109
)
 
509

Second lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Closed-end second lien
98

 
(3
)
 
(2
)
 
93

HELOC
45

 
21

 
(17
)
 
49

Total second lien
143

 
18

 
(19
)
 
142

Total
$
712

 
$
67

 
$
(128
)
 
$
651


___________________
(1)    See the section "Breaches of Representations and Warranties" below for eligible assets held in trust.


The following tables present the present value of net expected loss to be paid for all contracts by accounting model, by sector and after the benefit for estimated and contractual recoveries for breaches of R&W.  

Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered)
By Accounting Model
As of June 30, 2015
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance
 
FG VIEs(1) and Other
 
Credit
Derivatives(2)
 
Total
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
613

 
$
—

 
$
0

 
$
613

Non-U.S. public finance
44

 
—

 
0

 
44

Public Finance
657

 
—

 
0

 
657

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

First lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Prime first lien
2

 
—

 
(1
)
 
1

Alt-A first lien
261

 
16

 
(12
)
 
265

Option ARM
(20
)
 
—

 
2

 
(18
)
Subprime
151

 
62

 
60

 
273

Total first lien
394

 
78

 
49

 
521

Second lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien
(25
)
 
30

 
4

 
9

HELOCs
(12
)
 
6

 
—

 
(6
)
Total second lien
(37
)
 
36

 
4

 
3

Total U.S. RMBS
357

 
114

 
53

 
524

Triple-X life insurance transactions
157

 
—

 
8

 
165

TruPS
0

 
—

 
10

 
10

Student loans
58

 
—

 
—

 
58

Other structured finance
35

 
19

 
42

 
96

Structured Finance
607

 
133

 
113

 
853

Total
$
1,264

 
$
133

 
$
113

 
$
1,510


Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered)
By Accounting Model
As of December 31, 2014

 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance
 
FG VIEs(1) and Other
 
Credit
Derivatives(2)
 
Total
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
303

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
303

Non-U.S. public finance
45

 
—

 
—

 
45

Public Finance
348

 
—

 
—

 
348

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
2

 
—

 
2

 
4

Alt-A first lien
288

 
17

 
(1
)
 
304

Option ARM
(15
)
 
—

 
(1
)
 
(16
)
Subprime
163

 
71

 
69

 
303

Total first lien
438

 
88

 
69

 
595

Second lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien
(27
)
 
31

 
4

 
8

HELOCs
(26
)
 
7

 
—

 
(19
)
Total second lien
(53
)
 
38

 
4

 
(11
)
Total U.S. RMBS
385

 
126

 
73

 
584

Triple-X life insurance transactions
153

 
—

 
8

 
161

TruPS
1

 
—

 
22

 
23

Student loans
68

 
—

 
—

 
68

Other structured finance
34

 
(4
)
 
(45
)
 
(15
)
Structured Finance
641

 
122

 
58

 
821

Total
$
989

 
$
122

 
$
58

 
$
1,169

___________________
(1)    Refer to Note 10, Consolidated Variable Interest Entities.

(2)    Refer to Note 9, Financial Guaranty Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives.



    
The following tables present the net economic loss development for all contracts by accounting model, by sector and after the benefit for estimated and contractual recoveries for breaches of R&W.

Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)
By Accounting Model
Second Quarter 2015
 
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance
 
FG VIEs(1) and Other
 
Credit
Derivatives(2)
 
Total
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
232

 
$
—

 
$
(6
)
 
$
226

Non-U.S. public finance
(2
)
 
—

 
—

 
(2
)
Public Finance
230

 
—

 
(6
)
 
224

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
(1
)
 
—

 
—

 
(1
)
Alt-A first lien
(12
)
 
(1
)
 
(3
)
 
(16
)
Option ARM
(4
)
 
—

 
1

 
(3
)
Subprime
—

 
(1
)
 
(5
)
 
(6
)
Total first lien
(17
)
 
(2
)
 
(7
)
 
(26
)
Second lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien
(2
)
 
(2
)
 
1

 
(3
)
HELOCs
(5
)
 
2

 
—

 
(3
)
Total second lien
(7
)
 
—

 
1

 
(6
)
Total U.S. RMBS
(24
)
 
(2
)
 
(6
)
 
(32
)
Triple-X life insurance transactions
1

 
—

 
1

 
2

TruPS
—

 
—

 
(4
)
 
(4
)
Student loans
1

 
—

 
—

 
1

Other structured finance
(1
)
 
1

 
1

 
1

Structured Finance
(23
)
 
(1
)
 
(8
)
 
(32
)
Total
$
207

 
$
(1
)
 
$
(14
)
 
$
192


Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)
By Accounting Model
Second Quarter 2014
 
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance
 
FG VIEs(1) and Other
 
Credit
Derivatives(2)
 
Total
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
82

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
82

Non-U.S. public finance
(4
)
 
—

 
(1
)
 
(5
)
Public Finance
78

 
—

 
(1
)
 
77

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
1

 
—

 
(8
)
 
(7
)
Alt-A first lien
7

 
2

 
(5
)
 
4

Option ARM
(23
)
 
—

 
(1
)
 
(24
)
Subprime
4

 
3

 
(1
)
 
6

Total first lien
(11
)
 
5

 
(15
)
 
(21
)
Second lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien
(1
)
 
1

 
(5
)
 
(5
)
HELOCs
(34
)
 
1

 
—

 
(33
)
Total second lien
(35
)
 
2

 
(5
)
 
(38
)
Total U.S. RMBS
(46
)
 
7

 
(20
)
 
(59
)
Triple-X life insurance transactions
—

 
—

 
1

 
1

TruPS
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

Student loans
4

 
—

 
—

 
4

Other structured finance
0

 
—

 
—

 
0

Structured Finance
(42
)
 
7

 
(19
)
 
(54
)
Total
$
36

 
$
7

 
$
(20
)
 
$
23


Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)
By Accounting Model
Six Months 2015
 
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance
 
FG VIEs(1) and Other
 
Credit
Derivatives(2)
 
Total
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
241

 
$
—

 
$
(6
)
 
$
235

Non-U.S. public finance
(5
)
 
—

 
—

 
(5
)
Public Finance
236

 
—

 
(6
)
 
230

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
0

 
—

 
(1
)
 
(1
)
Alt-A first lien
(10
)
 
(1
)
 
(10
)
 
(21
)
Option ARM
(3
)
 
—

 
4

 
1

Subprime
(4
)
 
3

 
(6
)
 
(7
)
Total first lien
(17
)
 
2

 
(13
)
 
(28
)
Second lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien
(1
)
 
(1
)
 
—

 
(2
)
HELOCs
2

 
0

 
—

 
2

Total second lien
1

 
(1
)
 
—

 
—

Total U.S. RMBS
(16
)
 
1

 
(13
)
 
(28
)
Triple-X life insurance transactions
5

 
—

 
2

 
7

TruPS
(1
)
 
—

 
(12
)
 
(13
)
Student loans
(5
)
 
—

 
—

 
(5
)
Other structured finance
0

 
—

 
(2
)
 
(2
)
Structured Finance
(17
)
 
1

 
(25
)
 
(41
)
Total
$
219

 
$
1

 
$
(31
)
 
$
189


Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)
By Accounting Model
Six Months 2014

 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance
 
FG VIEs(1) and Other
 
Credit
Derivatives(2)
 
Total
 
(in millions)
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
105

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
105

Non-U.S. public finance
(4
)
 
—

 
(1
)
 
(5
)
Public Finance
101

 
—

 
(1
)
 
100

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
1

 
—

 
(11
)
 
(10
)
Alt-A first lien
26

 
(10
)
 
(4
)
 
12

Option ARM
(39
)
 
1

 
(1
)
 
(39
)
Subprime
(4
)
 
1

 
2

 
(1
)
Total first lien
(16
)
 
(8
)
 
(14
)
 
(38
)
Second lien:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien
(2
)
 
3

 
(1
)
 
—

HELOCs
(90
)
 
59

 
—

 
(31
)
Total second lien
(92
)
 
62

 
(1
)
 
(31
)
Total U.S. RMBS
(108
)
 
54

 
(15
)
 
(69
)
Triple-X life insurance transactions
13

 
—

 
1

 
14

TruPS
(1
)
 
—

 
(18
)
 
(19
)
Student loans
6

 
—

 
—

 
6

Other structured finance
2

 
(1
)
 
2

 
3

Structured Finance
(88
)
 
53

 
(30
)
 
(65
)
Total
$
13

 
$
53

 
$
(31
)
 
$
35

_________________
(1)    Refer to Note 10, Consolidated Variable Interest Entities.

(2)    Refer to Note 9, Financial Guaranty Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives.

Selected U.S. Public Finance Transactions
 
The Company insures general obligation bonds of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations aggregating $5.4 billion net par as of June 30, 2015, all of which are BIG. For additional information regarding the Company's exposure to general obligations of Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations, please refer to "Exposure to Puerto Rico" in Note 4, Outstanding Exposure.
On February 25, 2015, a plan of adjustment resolving the bankruptcy filing of the City of Stockton, California under chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code became effective. As of June 30, 2015, the Company’s net exposure subject to the plan consists of $117 million of pension obligation bonds. As part of the plan settlement, the City will repay the pension obligation bonds from certain fixed payments and certain variable payments contingent on the City's revenue growth. The Company agreed as part of the plan to cancel its $40 million of the City’s lease revenue bonds in exchange for the irrevocable option to take title to the office building that served as collateral for the lease revenue bonds. The Company also receives net rental payments from the office building. The Company no longer reflects the canceled lease revenue bonds as outstanding insured net par, but instead the financial statements reflect an investment in the office building and related lease revenue and expenses. As of June 30, 2015, the office building is carried at approximately $30 million and is reported as part of Other Assets.
The Company has $337 million of net par exposure to the Louisville Arena Authority. The bond proceeds were used to construct the KFC Yum Center, home to the University of Louisville men's and women's basketball teams. Actual revenues available for Debt Service are well below original projections, and under the Company's internal rating scale, the transaction is BIG.
    
In December 2014, the City of Detroit emerged from bankruptcy under chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. The Company still expects to make debt service payments on the 15.5% of the City’s unlimited tax general obligation (“UTGO”) that were not exchanged as part of the related settlement. As of June 30, 2015, these bonds had a net par outstanding of $18 million.

As a result of the Radian Asset Acquisition, the Company has approximately $21 million of net par exposure as of June 30, 2015 to bonds issued by Parkway East Public Improvement District, which is located in Madison County, Mississippi. The bonds, which are rated BIG, are payable from special assessments on properties within the District, as well as amounts paid under a contribution agreement with the County in which the County covenants that it will provide funds in the event special assessments are not sufficient to make a debt service payment. The special assessments have not been sufficient to pay debt service in full. In earlier years, the County provided funding to cover the balance of the debt service requirement, but the County now claims that the District’s failure to reimburse it within the two years stipulated in the contribution agreement means that the County is not required to provide funding until it is reimbursed. A declaratory judgment action is pending against the District and the County to establish the Company's rights under the contribution agreement. See "Recovery Litigation" below.

The Company also has $15.9 billion of net par exposure to healthcare transactions. The BIG net par outstanding in this sector is $376 million, $325 million of which was acquired as part of the Radian Asset Acquisition.
    
The Company projects that its total net expected loss across its troubled U.S. public finance credits as of June 30, 2015, which incorporated the likelihood of the outcomes mentioned above, will be $613 million, compared with a net expected loss of $310 million as of March 31, 2015. On April 1, 2015, the Radian Asset Acquisition added $81 million in net economic losses to be paid for U.S. public finance credits. In addition, economic loss development in Second Quarter 2015 was $226 million which was primarily attributable to Puerto Rico exposures. Economic loss development in Six Months 2015 was $235 million, which was also primarily attributable to Puerto Rico exposures.

Certain Selected European Country Sub-Sovereign Transactions

The Company insures and reinsures credits with sub-sovereign exposure to various Spanish and Portuguese issuers where a Spanish and Portuguese sovereign default may cause the sub-sovereigns also to default. The Company's gross exposure to these Spanish and Portuguese credits is $479 million and $108 million, respectively, and exposure net of reinsurance for Spanish and Portuguese credits is $383 million and $101 million, respectively. The Company rates most of these issuers in the BB category due to the financial condition of Spain and Portugal and their dependence on the sovereign. The Company's Hungary exposure is to infrastructure bonds dependent on payments from Hungarian governmental entities and covered mortgage bonds issued by Hungarian banks. The Company's gross exposure to these Hungarian credits is $475 million and its exposure net of reinsurance is $466 million, most of which is rated BIG. The Company estimated net expected losses of $41 million related to these Spanish, Portuguese and Hungarian credits. The positive economic loss development of approximately $2 million during Second Quarter 2015 and $4 million during Six Months 2015 was primarily related to changes in the exchange rate between the Euro and US Dollar.
 
Infrastructure Finance

The Company has insured exposure of approximately $3.1 billion to infrastructure transactions with refinancing risk as to which the Company may need to make claim payments that it did not anticipate paying when the policies were issued. Although the Company may not experience ultimate loss on a particular transaction, the aggregate amount of the claim payments may be substantial and reimbursement may not occur for an extended time. These transactions generally involve long-term infrastructure projects that were financed by bonds that mature prior to the expiration of the project concession. The Company expects the cash flows from these projects to be sufficient to repay all of the debt over the life of the project concession, but also expects the debt to be refinanced in the market at or prior to its maturity. If the issuer is unable to refinance the debt due to market conditions, the Company may have to pay a claim when the debt matures, and then recover its payment from cash flows produced by the project in the future. The Company generally projects that in most scenarios it will be fully reimbursed for such payments. However, the recovery of the payments is uncertain and may take from 10 to 35 years, depending on the transaction and the performance of the underlying collateral. The Company estimates total claims for the two largest transactions with significant refinancing risk, assuming no refinancing, and based on certain performance assumptions could be $1.9 billion on a gross basis; such claims would be payable from 2017 through 2022.


Approach to Projecting Losses in U.S. RMBS
 
The Company projects losses on its insured U.S. RMBS on a transaction-by-transaction basis by projecting the performance of the underlying pool of mortgages over time and then applying the structural features (i.e., payment priorities and tranching) of the RMBS to the projected performance of the collateral over time. The resulting projected claim payments or reimbursements are then discounted using risk-free rates. For transactions where the Company projects it will receive recoveries from providers of R&W, it projects the amount of recoveries and either establishes a recovery for claims already paid or reduces its projected claim payments accordingly.
     The further behind a mortgage borrower falls in making payments, the more likely it is that he or she will default. The rate at which borrowers from a particular delinquency category (number of monthly payments behind) eventually default is referred to as the “liquidation rate.” The Company derives its liquidation rate assumptions from observed roll rates, which are the rates at which loans progress from one delinquency category to the next and eventually to default and liquidation. The Company applies liquidation rates to the mortgage loan collateral in each delinquency category and makes certain timing assumptions to project near-term mortgage collateral defaults from loans that are currently delinquent.
Mortgage borrowers that are not more than one payment behind (generally considered performing borrowers) have demonstrated an ability and willingness to pay throughout the recession and mortgage crisis, and as a result are viewed as less likely to default than delinquent borrowers. Performing borrowers that eventually default will also need to progress through delinquency categories before any defaults occur. The Company projects how many of the currently performing loans will default and when they will default, by first converting the projected near term defaults of delinquent borrowers derived from liquidation rates into a vector of conditional default rates ("CDR"), then projecting how the conditional default rates will develop over time. Loans that are defaulted pursuant to the conditional default rate after the near-term liquidation of currently delinquent loans represent defaults of currently performing loans and projected re-performing loans. A conditional default rate is the outstanding principal amount of defaulted loans liquidated in the current month divided by the remaining outstanding amount of the whole pool of loans (or “collateral pool balance”). The collateral pool balance decreases over time as a result of scheduled principal payments, partial and whole principal prepayments, and defaults.
 
In order to derive collateral pool losses from the collateral pool defaults it has projected, the Company applies a loss severity. The loss severity is the amount of loss the transaction experiences on a defaulted loan after the application of net proceeds from the disposal of the underlying property. The Company projects loss severities by sector based on its experience to date. The Company continues to update its evaluation of these exposures as new information becomes available.
 
The Company has been enforcing claims for breaches of R&W regarding the characteristics of the loans included in the collateral pools. The Company calculates a credit for R&W recoveries to include in its cash flow projections. Where the Company has an agreement with an R&W provider (such as its agreements with Bank of America, Deutsche Bank and UBS, which are described in more detail under "Breaches of Representations and Warranties" below), that credit is based on the agreement or potential agreement. Where the Company does not have an agreement with the R&W provider but the Company believes the R&W provider to be economically viable, the Company estimates what portion of its past and projected future claims it believes will be reimbursed by that provider.

The Company projects the overall future cash flow from a collateral pool by adjusting the payment stream from the principal and interest contractually due on the underlying mortgages for the collateral losses it projects as described above; assumed voluntary prepayments; and servicer advances. The Company then applies an individual model of the structure of the transaction to the projected future cash flow from that transaction’s collateral pool to project the Company’s future claims and claim reimbursements for that individual transaction. Finally, the projected claims and reimbursements are discounted using risk-free rates. The Company runs several sets of assumptions regarding mortgage collateral performance, or scenarios, and probability weights them.

The Company's RMBS loss projection methodology assumes that the housing and mortgage markets will continue improving. Each period the Company makes a judgment as to whether to change the assumptions it uses to make RMBS loss projections based on its observation during the period of the performance of its insured transactions (including early stage delinquencies, late stage delinquencies and loss severity) as well as the residential property market and economy in general, and, to the extent it observes changes, it makes a judgment as whether those changes are normal fluctuations or part of a trend.

Second Quarter 2015 U.S. RMBS Loss Projections
 
Based on its observation during the period of the performance of its insured transactions (including early stage delinquencies, late stage delinquencies and loss severity) as well as the residential property market and economy in general, the Company chose to use the same general assumptions to project RMBS losses as of June 30, 2015 as it used as of March 31, 2015, except that, for its first lien RMBS loss projections it again this quarter shortened by three months the period it is projecting it will take in the base case to reach the final CDR.

U.S. First Lien RMBS Loss Projections: Alt-A First Lien, Option ARM, Subprime and Prime

     The majority of projected losses in first lien RMBS transactions are expected to come from non-performing mortgage loans (those that have been modified or have been delinquent in the previous 12 months, are two or more payments behind, are in foreclosure or that have been foreclosed and so the RMBS issuer owns the underlying real estate). Changes in the amount of non-performing loans from the amount projected in the previous period are one of the primary drivers of loss development in this portfolio. In order to determine the number of defaults resulting from these delinquent and foreclosed loans, the Company applies a liquidation rate assumption to loans in each of various non-performing categories. The Company arrived at its liquidation rates based on data purchased from a third party provider and assumptions about how delays in the foreclosure process and loan modifications may ultimately affect the rate at which loans are liquidated. Each year the Company reviews the most recent twenty-four months of this data and adjusts its liquidation rates based on its observations. The following table shows liquidation assumptions for various non-performing categories.

First Lien Liquidation Rates

 
June 30, 2015
 
March 31, 2015
 
December 31, 2014
Current Loans Modified in the Previous 12 Months
 
 
 
 
 
Alt A and Prime
25%
 
25%
 
25%
Option ARM
25
 
25
 
25
Subprime
25
 
25
 
25
Current Loans Delinquent in the Previous 12 Months
 
 
 
 
 
Alt A and Prime
25
 
25
 
25
Option ARM
25
 
25
 
25
Subprime
25
 
25
 
25
30 – 59 Days Delinquent
 
 
 
 
 
Alt A and Prime
35
 
35
 
35
Option ARM
40
 
40
 
40
Subprime
35
 
35
 
35
60 – 89 Days Delinquent
 
 
 
 
 
Alt A and Prime
50
 
50
 
50
Option ARM
55
 
55
 
55
Subprime
40
 
40
 
40
90+ Days Delinquent
 
 
 
 
 
Alt A and Prime
60
 
60
 
60
Option ARM
65
 
65
 
65
Subprime
55
 
55
 
55
Bankruptcy
 
 
 
 
 
Alt A and Prime
45
 
45
 
45
Option ARM
50
 
50
 
50
Subprime
40
 
40
 
40
Foreclosure
 
 
 
 
 
Alt A and Prime
75
 
75
 
75
Option ARM
80
 
80
 
80
Subprime
70
 
70
 
70
Real Estate Owned
 
 
 
 
 
All
100
 
100
 
100


While the Company uses liquidation rates as described above to project defaults of non-performing loans (including current loans modified or delinquent within the last 12 months), it projects defaults on presently current loans by applying a CDR trend. The start of that CDR trend is based on the defaults the Company projects will emerge from currently nonperforming, recently nonperforming and modified loans. The total amount of expected defaults from the non-performing loans is translated into a constant CDR (i.e., the CDR plateau), which, if applied for each of the next 36 months, would be sufficient to produce approximately the amount of defaults that were calculated to emerge from the various delinquency categories. The CDR thus calculated individually on the delinquent collateral pool for each RMBS is then used as the starting point for the CDR curve used to project defaults of the presently performing loans.
 
In the base case, after the initial 36-month CDR plateau period, each transaction’s CDR is projected to improve over 12 months to an intermediate CDR (calculated as 20% of its CDR plateau); that intermediate CDR is held constant for 36 months and then trails off in steps to a final CDR of 5% of the CDR plateau. In the base case, the Company assumes the final CDR will be reached eight years after the initial 36-month CDR plateau period, which is three months shorter than assumed as of March 31, 2014 and six months shorter than assumed at December 31, 2014 but the same calendar date as it assumed as of June 30, 2014. Under the Company’s methodology, defaults projected to occur in the first 36 months represent defaults that can be attributed to loans that were modified or delinquent in the last 12 months or that are currently delinquent or in foreclosure, while the defaults projected to occur using the projected CDR trend after the first 36 month period represent defaults attributable to borrowers that are currently performing or are projected to reperform.

     Another important driver of loss projections is loss severity, which is the amount of loss the transaction incurs on a loan after the application of net proceeds from the disposal of the underlying property. Loss severities experienced in first lien transactions have reached historically high levels, and the Company is assuming in the base case that these high levels generally will continue for another 18 months. The Company determines its initial loss severity based on actual recent experience. The Company then assumes that loss severities begin returning to levels consistent with underwriting assumptions beginning after the initial 18 month period, declining to 40% in the base case over 2.5 years. Beginning for December 31, 2014, the Company differentiated the loss severity assumptions depending on the vintage of the transaction, as shown in the table below.
 
The following table shows the range as well as the average, weighted by outstanding net insured par, for key assumptions used in the calculation of expected loss to be paid for individual transactions for direct vintage 2004 - 2008 first lien U.S. RMBS.
Key Assumptions in Base Case Expected Loss Estimates
First Lien RMBS(1)
 
 
As of
June 30, 2015
 
As of
March 31, 2015
 
As of
December 31, 2014
 
Range
 
Weighted Average
 
Range
 
Weighted Average
 
Range
 
Weighted Average
Alt-A First Lien
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Plateau CDR
1.7
%
-
13.3%
 
7.1%
 
2.6
%
–
13.1%
 
7.4%
 
2.0
%
–
13.4%
 
7.3%
Intermediate CDR
0.3
%
-
2.7%
 
1.4%
 
0.5
%
–
2.6%
 
1.5%
 
0.4
%
–
2.7%
 
1.5%
Period until intermediate CDR
48 months
 
 
 
48 months
 
 
 
48 months
 
 
Final CDR
0.1
%
-
0.7%
 
0.3%
 
0.1
%
–
0.7%
 
0.3%
 
0.1
%
–
0.7%
 
0.3%
Initial loss severity:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2005 and prior
60.0%
 
 
 
60.0%
 
 
 
60.0%
 
 
2006
70.0%
 
 
 
70.0%
 
 
 
70.0%
 
 
2007
65.0%
 
 
 
65.0%
 
 
 
65.0%
 
 
Initial conditional prepayment rate ("CPR")
1.6
%
-
27.7%
 
8.5%
 
2.7
%
–
22.4%
 
8.1%
 
1.7
%
–
21.0%
 
7.7%
Final CPR(2)
15.0
%
-
27.7%
 
15.3%
 
15.0
%
–
22.4%
 
15.2%
 
15%
 
 
Option ARM
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Plateau CDR
4.0
%
-
12.1%
 
9.2%
 
4.5
%
–
12.9%
 
9.9%
 
4.3
%
–
14.2%
 
10.6%
Intermediate CDR
0.8
%
-
2.4%
 
1.8%
 
0.9
%
–
2.6%
 
2.0%
 
0.9
%
–
2.8%
 
2.1%
Period until intermediate CDR
48 months
 
 
 
48 months
 
 
 
48 months
 
 
Final CDR
0.2
%
-
0.6%
 
0.5%
 
0.2
%
–
0.6%
 
0.5%
 
0.2
%
–
0.7%
 
0.5%
Initial loss severity:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2005 and prior
60.0%
 
 
 
60.0%
 
 
 
60.0%
 
 
2006
70.0%
 
 
 
70.0%
 
 
 
70.0%
 
 
2007
65.0%
 
 
 
65.0%
 
 
 
65.0%
 
 
Initial CPR
1.6
%
-
12.3%
 
5.0%
 
1.8
%
–
12.7%
 
4.9%
 
1.1
%
–
11.8%
 
4.9%
Final CPR(2)
15%
 
 
 
15%
 
 
 
15%
 
 
Subprime
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Plateau CDR
4.9
%
-
13.5%
 
9.7%
 
4.8
%
–
14.4%
 
10.2%
 
4.9
%
–
15.0%
 
10.6%
Intermediate CDR
1.0
%
-
2.7%
 
1.9%
 
1.0
%
–
2.9%
 
2.0%
 
1.0
%
–
3.0%
 
2.1%
Period until intermediate CDR
48 months
 
 
 
48 months
 
 
 
48 months
 
 
Final CDR
0.2
%
-
0.7%
 
0.4%
 
0.2
%
–
0.7%
 
0.4%
 
0.2
%
–
0.7%
 
0.4%
Initial loss severity:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2005 and prior
75.0%
 
 
 
75.0%
 
 
 
75.0%
 
 
2006
90.0%
 
 
 
90.0%
 
 
 
90.0%
 
 
2007
90.0%
 
 
 
90.0%
 
 
 
90.0%
 
 
Initial CPR
0.0
%
-
8.7%
 
4.0%
 
0.0
%
–
9.7%
 
4.7%
 
0.0
%
–
10.5%
 
6.1%
Final CPR(2)
15%
 
 
 
15%
 
 
 
15%
 
 
____________________
(1)                                Represents variables for most heavily weighted scenario (the “base case”).

(2) 
For transactions where the initial CPR is higher than the final CPR, the initial CPR is held constant and the final CPR is not used.
 
 The rate at which the principal amount of loans is voluntarily prepaid may impact both the amount of losses projected (since that amount is a function of the conditional default rate, the loss severity and the loan balance over time) as well as the amount of excess spread (the amount by which the interest paid by the borrowers on the underlying loan exceeds the amount of interest owed on the insured obligations). The assumption for the voluntary CPR follows a similar pattern to that of the conditional default rate. The current level of voluntary prepayments is assumed to continue for the plateau period before gradually increasing over 12 months to the final CPR, which is assumed to be 15% in the base case. For transactions where the initial CPR is higher than the final CPR, the initial CPR is held constant and the final CPR is not used. These assumptions are the same as those the Company used for March 31, 2015 and December 31, 2014.
 
In estimating expected losses, the Company modeled and probability weighted sensitivities for first lien transactions by varying its assumptions of how fast a recovery is expected to occur. One of the variables used to model sensitivities was how quickly the conditional default rate returned to its modeled equilibrium, which was defined as 5% of the initial conditional default rate. The Company also stressed CPR and the speed of recovery of loss severity rates. The Company probability weighted a total of five scenarios (including its base case) as of June 30, 2015. The Company used a similar approach to establish its pessimistic and optimistic scenarios as of June 30, 2015 as it used as of March 31, 2015 and December 31, 2014, increasing and decreasing the periods of stress from those used in the base case.
 
In a somewhat more stressful environment than that of the base case, where the conditional default rate plateau was extended six months (to be 42 months long) before the same more gradual conditional default rate recovery and loss severities were assumed to recover over 4.5 rather than 2.5 years (and subprime loss severities were assumed to recover only to 60% and Option ARM and Alt A loss severities to only 45%), expected loss to be paid would increase from current projections by approximately $25 million for Alt-A first liens, $6 million for Option ARM, $62 million for subprime and $1 million for prime transactions.

In an even more stressful scenario where loss severities were assumed to rise and then recover over nine years and the initial ramp-down of the conditional default rate was assumed to occur over 15 months and other assumptions were the same as the other stress scenario, expected loss to be paid would increase from current projections by approximately $69 million for Alt-A first liens, $14 million for Option ARM, $87 million for subprime and $4 million for prime transactions.

In a scenario with a somewhat less stressful environment than the base case, where conditional default rate recovery was somewhat less gradual, expected loss to be paid would increase from current projections by approximately $0.4 million for Alt-A first liens, and decrease by $13 million for Option ARM, $10 million for subprime and $41 thousand for prime transactions.

In an even less stressful scenario where the conditional default rate plateau was six months shorter (30 months, effectively assuming that liquidation rates would improve) and the conditional default rate recovery was more pronounced, (including an initial ramp-down of the conditional default rate over nine months), expected loss to be paid would decrease from current projections by approximately $24 million for Alt-A first liens, $22 million for Option ARM, $43 million for subprime and $0.3 million for prime transactions.

U.S. Second Lien RMBS Loss Projections: HELOCs and Closed-End Second Lien
 
The Company believes the primary variable affecting its expected losses in second lien RMBS transactions is the amount and timing of future losses in the collateral pool supporting the transactions. Expected losses are also a function of the structure of the transaction; the voluntary prepayment rate (typically also referred to as CPR of the collateral); the interest rate environment; and assumptions about the draw rate and loss severity.
 
The following table shows the range as well as the average, weighted by outstanding net insured par, for key assumptions for the calculation of expected loss to be paid for individual transactions for direct vintage 2004 - 2008 second lien U.S. RMBS.
 
Key Assumptions in Base Case Expected Loss Estimates
Second Lien RMBS(1)

HELOC key assumptions
As of
June 30, 2015
 
As of
March 31, 2015
 
As of
December 31, 2014
 
Range
 
Weighted Average
 
Range
 
Weighted Average
 
Range
 
Weighted Average
Plateau CDR
5.3
%
–
23.3%
 
8.9%
 
2.3
%
–
7.5%
 
4.4%
 
2.8
%
–
6.8%
 
4.1%
Final CDR trended down to
0.5
%
–
3.2%
 
1.2%
 
0.5
%
–
3.2%
 
1.2%
 
0.5
%
–
3.2%
 
1.2%
Period until final CDR
34 months
 
 
 
34 months
 
 
 
34 months
 
 
Initial CPR
9.3%
 
9.3%
 
6.9
%
–
23.2%
 
10.2%
 
6.9
%
–
21.8%
 
11.0%
Final CPR(2)
10.0
%
–
15.0%
 
13.25%
 
10.0
%
–
23.2%
 
15.2%
 
15.0
%
–
21.8%
 
15.5%
Loss severity
90.0
%
–
98.0%
 
90.5%
 
90.0
%
–
98.0%
 
90.4%
 
90.0
%
–
98.0%
 
90.4%
 
Closed-end second lien key assumptions
As of
June 30, 2015
 
As of
March 31, 2015
 
As of
December 31, 2014
 
Range
 
Weighted Average
 
Range
 
Weighted Average
 
Range
 
Weighted Average
Plateau CDR
6.0
%
–
21.4%
 
10.8%
 
4.7
%
–
12.4%
 
6.9%
 
5.5
%
–
12.5%
 
7.2%
Final CDR trended down to
3.5
%
–
9.2%
 
4.8%
 
3.5
%
–
9.1%
 
4.9%
 
3.5
%
–
9.1%
 
4.9%
Period until final CDR
34 months
 
 
 
34 months
 
 
 
34 months
 
 
Initial CPR
5.3
%
–
13.4%
 
8.6%
 
3.4
%
–
11.8%
 
7.6%
 
2.8
%
–
13.9%
 
9.9%
Final CPR(2)
15%
 
 
 
15%
 
 
 
15%
 
 
Loss severity
98%
 
 
 
98%
 
 
 
98%
 
 
____________________
(1)
Represents variables for most heavily weighted scenario (the “base case”).

(2) 
For transactions where the initial CPR is higher than the final CPR, the initial CPR is held constant and the final CPR is not used.
 
In second lien transactions the projection of near-term defaults from currently delinquent loans is relatively straightforward because loans in second lien transactions are generally “charged off” (treated as defaulted) by the securitization’s servicer once the loan is 180 days past due. Most second lien transactions report the amount of loans in five monthly delinquency categories (i.e., 30-59 days past due, 60-89 days past due, 90-119 days past due, 120-149 days past due and 150-179 days past due). The Company estimates the amount of loans that will default over the next five months by calculating current representative liquidation rates. A liquidation rate is the percent of loans in a given cohort (in this instance, delinquency category) that ultimately default. Similar to first liens, the Company then calculates a CDR for six months’, which is the period over which the currently delinquent collateral is expected to be liquidated. That CDR is then used as the basis for the plateau period that follows the embedded five months of losses. Liquidation rates assumed as of June 30, 2015, were from 10% to 100%.
 
For the base case scenario, the CDR (the “plateau CDR”) was held constant for six months. Once the plateau period has ended, the CDR is assumed to gradually trend down in uniform increments to its final long-term steady state CDR. (The long-term steady state CDR is calculated as the constant CDR that would have yielded the amount of losses originally expected at underwriting.) In the base case scenario, the time over which the CDR trends down to its final CDR is 28 months. Therefore, the total stress period for second lien transactions is 34 months, comprising five months of delinquent data, a one month plateau period and 28 months of decrease to the steady state CDR, the same as of March 31, 2015 and December 31, 2014.

HELOC loans generally permit the borrower to pay only interest for an initial period (often ten years) and, after that period, require the borrower to make both the monthly interest payment and a monthly principal payment, and so increase the borrower's aggregate monthly payment. Some of the HELOC loans underlying the Company's insured HELOC transactions have reached their principal amortization period. The Company has observed that the increase in monthly payments occurring when a loan reaches its principal amortization period, even if mitigated by borrower relief offered by the servicer, is associated with increased borrower defaults. Thus, most of the Company's HELOC projections incorporate an assumption that a percentage of loans reaching their amortization periods will default around the time of the payment increase. These projected defaults are in addition to those generated using the CDR curve as described above. This assumption is similar to the one used at March 31, 2015 and December 31, 2014. The Company refined its current approach to calculate the number of additional delinquencies as a function of the number of modified loans in the transaction and the final steady state CDR. Thus transactions that have worse than average expected experience will have higher defaults and transactions where borrowers are receiving modifications so that they will not default when their interest only period ends will have higher losses.

When a second lien loan defaults, there is generally a very low recovery. The Company had assumed as of June 30, 2015 that it will generally recover only 10% or less of the collateral defaulting in the future and declining additional amounts on post-default receipts on previously defaulted collateral. This is the same as at March 31, 2015 and December 31, 2014.

The rate at which the principal amount of loans is prepaid may impact both the amount of losses projected as well as the amount of excess spread. In the base case, an average CPR for the (based on experience of the most recent three quarters) is assumed to continue until the end of the plateau before gradually increasing to the final CPR over the same period the CDR decreases. The final CPR is assumed to be 15% for both HELOC and closed-end second lien transactions, which is lower than the historical average but reflects the Company’s continued uncertainty about the projected performance of the borrowers in these transactions. This pattern is generally consistent with how the Company modeled the CPR at March 31, 2015 and December 31, 2014. To the extent that prepayments differ from projected levels it could materially change the Company’s projected excess spread and losses.
 
The Company uses a number of other variables in its second lien loss projections, including the spread between relevant interest rate indices. These variables have been relatively stable and in the relevant ranges have less impact on the projection results than the variables discussed above. However, in a number of HELOC transactions the servicers have been modifying poorly performing loans from floating to fixed rates, and, as a result, rising interest rates would negatively impact the excess spread available from these modified loans to support the transactions.  The Company incorporated these modifications in its assumptions.

In estimating expected losses, the Company modeled and probability weighted five possible CDR curves applicable to the period preceding the return to the long-term steady state CDR. The Company used three scenarios at March 31, 2015 and at December 31, 2014. The Company believes that the level of the elevated CDR and the length of time it will persist, the ultimate prepayment rate, and the amount of additional defaults because of the expiry of the interest only period, are the primary drivers behind the likely amount of losses the collateral will suffer. The Company continues to evaluate the assumptions affecting its modeling results.
 
The Company’s base case assumed a six month CDR plateau and a 28 month ramp-down (for a total stress period of 34 months). The Company also modeled a scenario with a longer period of elevated defaults and another with a shorter period of elevated defaults. Increasing the CDR plateau to eight months and increasing the ramp-down by three months to 31 months (for a total stress period of 39 months), and doubling the defaults relating to the end of the interest only period would increase the expected loss by approximately $38 million for HELOC transactions and $1 million for closed-end second lien transactions. On the other hand, reducing the CDR plateau to four month and decreasing the length of the CDR ramp-down to 25 months (for a total stress period of 29 months), and lowering the ultimate prepayment rate to 10% would decrease the expected loss by approximately $38 million for HELOC transactions and $0.6 million for closed-end second lien transactions.

Breaches of Representations and Warranties

Generally, when mortgage loans are transferred into a securitization, the loan originator(s) and/or sponsor(s) provide R&W that the loans meet certain characteristics, and a breach of such R&W often requires that the loan be repurchased from the securitization. In many of the transactions the Company insures, it is in a position to enforce these R&W provisions. The Company has pursued breaches of R&W on a loan-by-loan basis or in cases where a provider of R&W refused to honor its repurchase obligations, the Company sometimes chose to initiate litigation. The Company's success in pursuing these strategies permitted the Company to enter into agreements with R&W providers under which those providers made payments to the Company, agreed to make payments to the Company in the future, and / or repurchased loans from the transactions, all in return for releases of related liability by the Company. In some instances, the entity providing the R&W (or an affiliate of that entity) also benefited from credit protection sold by the Company through a CDS, and the Company entered into an agreement terminating the CDS protection it provided (and so avoiding future losses on that transaction), again in return for releases of related liability by the Company and in certain instances other consideration. Such agreements with R&W providers provide the Company with many of the benefits of pursuing the R&W claims on a loan by loan basis or through litigation, but without the related expense and uncertainty. The Company continues to pursue these strategies for certain transactions where it does not yet have agreements.

Through June 30, 2015, the Company has caused entities providing R&Ws to pay, or agree to pay, or to terminate insurance protection on future projected losses of, approximately $4.2 billion (gross of reinsurance) in respect of their R&W liabilities for transactions in which the Company has provided insurance and included in its net expected loss estimates as of June 30, 2015 an estimated net benefit of $225 million, (net of reinsurance). Most of this net benefit is projected to be received pursuant to existing agreements with R&W providers, although some is projected to be received in connection with transactions where the company does not yet have such an agreement. Most of the amount projected to be received pursuant to existing agreements with R&W providers benefits from eligible assets placed in trusts to collateralize the R&W provider’s future reimbursement obligation, with the amount of such collateral subject to increase or decrease from time to time as determined by rating agency requirements. Currently the Company has agreements with three counterparties where a future reimbursement obligation is collateralized by eligible assets held in trust:

•
Bank of America. Under the Company's agreement with Bank of America Corporation and certain of its subsidiaries (“Bank of America”), Bank of America agreed to reimburse the Company for 80% of claims on the first lien transactions covered by the agreement that the Company pays in the future, until the aggregate lifetime collateral losses (not insurance losses or claims) on those transactions reach $6.6 billion. As of June 30, 2015 aggregate lifetime collateral losses on those transactions was $4.3 billion, and the Company was projecting in its base case that such collateral losses would eventually reach $5.2 billion. Bank of America's reimbursement obligation is secured by $557 million of collateral held in trust for the Company's benefit.

•
Deutsche Bank. Under the Company's May 2012 agreement with Deutsche Bank AG and certain of its affiliates (collectively, “Deutsche Bank”), Deutsche Bank agreed to reimburse the Company for certain claims it pays in the future on eight first and second lien transactions, including 80% of claims it pays on those transactions until the aggregate lifetime claims (before reimbursement) reach $319 million. As of June 30, 2015, the Company was projecting in its base case that such aggregate lifetime claims would remain below $319 million. In the event aggregate lifetime claims paid exceed $389 million, Deutsche Bank must reimburse the Company for 85% of such claims paid (in excess of $389 million) until such claims paid reach $600 million.

When the agreement was first signed, Deutsche Bank was also required to reimburse AGC for future claims it pays on certain RMBS resecuritizations. AGC and Deutsche Bank terminated one of the resecuritization transactions on October 10, 2013, another on September 12, 2014 and two more in the fourth quarter of 2014. In the fourth quarter of 2014, AGC and Deutsche Bank also terminated one other BIG transaction under which AGC had provided credit protection to Deutsche Bank through a CDS. In connection with the 2014 terminations, AGC and Deutsche Bank agreed to terminate Deutsche Bank’s reimbursement obligation on all of the RMBS resecuritizations, and AGC made a termination payment to Deutsche Bank and released some of the collateral that had been held in trust. Deutsche Bank remains liable to reimburse the Company for certain claims it pays on eight first and second lien transactions, as described above, and such reimbursement obligation remains secured by $74 million of collateral held in trust for the Company’s benefit.

•
UBS. On May 6, 2013, the Company entered into an agreement with UBS Real Estate Securities Inc. and affiliates ("UBS") and a third party resolving the Company’s claims and liabilities related to specified RMBS transactions that were issued, underwritten or sponsored by UBS and insured by AGM or AGC under financial guaranty insurance policies. Under the agreement, UBS agreed to reimburse the Company for 85% of future losses on three first lien RMBS transactions, and such reimbursement obligation is secured by $79 million of collateral held in trust for the Company's benefit.
    
For the expected recovery from breaches of R&W in transactions not covered by agreements as of June 30, 2015, the Company did not incorporate any gain contingencies from potential litigation in its estimated repurchases. The amount the Company will ultimately recover related to such contractual R&W is uncertain and subject to a number of factors including the counterparty's ability to pay, the number and loss amount of loans determined to have breached R&W and, potentially, negotiated settlements or litigation recoveries. As such, the Company's estimate of recoveries is uncertain and actual amounts realized may differ significantly from these estimates. In arriving at the expected recovery from breaches of R&W not already covered by agreements, the Company considered the creditworthiness of the provider of the R&W, the number of breaches found on defaulted loans, the success rate in resolving these breaches across those transactions where material repurchases have been made and the potential amount of time until the recovery is realized. The calculation of expected recovery from breaches of such contractual R&W involved a variety of scenarios which ranged from the Company recovering substantially all of the losses it incurred due to violations of R&W to the Company realizing limited recoveries. These scenarios were probability weighted in order to determine the recovery incorporated into the Company's estimate of expected losses. This approach was used for both loans that had already defaulted and those assumed to default in the future. The Company adjusts the calculation of its expected recovery from breaches of R&W based on changing facts and circumstances with respect to each counterparty and transaction.

The Company uses the same RMBS projection scenarios and weightings to project its future R&W benefit as it uses to project RMBS losses on its portfolio. To the extent the Company increases its loss projections, the R&W benefit (whether pursuant to an R&W agreement or not) generally will also increase, subject to the agreement limits and thresholds described above. Similarly, to the extent the Company decreases its loss projections, the R&W benefit (whether pursuant to an R&W agreement or not) generally will also decrease, subject to the agreement limits and thresholds described above.

The number of risks subject to R&W recovery is 30, with related net debt service of $2.0 billion as of June 30, 2015 compared to 29 with related net debt service of $2.1 billion as of December 31, 2014. Included in these amounts is net debt service related to transactions not yet subject to an agreement. A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making Debt Service payments.

The following table provides a breakdown of the development and accretion amount in the roll forward of estimated recoveries associated with claims for breaches of R&W.

Components of R&W Development

 
Second Quarter
 
Six Months
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015

2014
 
(in millions)
Estimated increase (decrease) in defaults that will result in additional (lower) breaches(1)
$
3

 
$
(11
)
 
$
(49
)
 
$
(11
)
Inclusion or removal of deals with breaches of R&W during period
—

 
—

 
0

 
—

Change in recovery assumptions
—

 
17

 
—

 
27

Settlements and anticipated settlements
—

 
10

 
—

 
45

Accretion of discount on balance
1

 
3

 
2

 
6

Total
$
4

 
$
19

 
$
(47
)
 
$
67

 
____________________
(1)
The negative R&W development is offset by higher anticipated cash flows in the covered transactions that were related to a third party settlement.
 
Triple-X Life Insurance Transactions
 
The Company had $3.1 billion of net par exposure to Triple-X life insurance transactions as of June 30, 2015. Two of these transactions, with $598 million of net par outstanding, are rated BIG: (i) Orkney Re II plc ("Orkney"), where AGUK guaranteed $382.5 million original par of Series A-1 Notes and AGC guaranteed $40.5 million original par of Series A-2 Notes; and (ii) Ballantyne Re plc ("Ballantyne"), which AGUK guaranteed.

The Triple-X life insurance transactions are based on discrete blocks of individual life insurance business. In older vintage Triple-X transactions, which include Orkney and Ballantyne, the monies raised by the sale of the notes insured by the Company were used to capitalize a special purpose vehicle that provides reinsurance to a life insurer or reinsurer. The monies are invested at inception in accounts managed by third-party investment managers. In the case of Orkney and Ballantyne, material amounts of their assets were invested in U.S. RMBS. Based on its analysis of the information currently available, including estimates of future investment performance, and projected credit impairments on the invested assets and performance of the blocks of life insurance business at June 30, 2015, the Company’s projected net expected loss to be paid is $165 million. The economic loss development during Second Quarter 2015 was approximately $2 million, which was due primarily to additional loss adjustment expenses. The economic loss development during Six Months 2015 was approximately $7 million, which was due primarily to changes in the risk free rates used to discount the losses and life insurance projections.

AGM had also guaranteed a CDS that referenced the entire issued and outstanding amount of Orkney's Series A-1 Notes. On July 9, 2015, in consideration of a cash payment by AGM, the swap counterparty delivered to AGM all of Orkney's AGUK-guaranteed Series A-1 Notes, and the parties terminated the CDS.

TruPS
 
The Company has insured or reinsured $4.9 billion of net par (77% of which is in CDS form) of collateralized debt obligations (“CDOs”) backed by TruPS and similar debt instruments, or “TruPS CDOs.” Of the $4.9 billion, $0.9 billion is rated BIG. The underlying collateral in the TruPS CDOs consists of subordinated debt instruments such as TruPS issued by bank holding companies and similar instruments issued by insurance companies, real estate investment trusts (“REITs”) and other real estate related issuers.
 
The Company projects losses for TruPS CDOs by projecting the performance of the asset pools across several scenarios (which it weights) and applying the CDO structures to the resulting cash flows. At June 30, 2015, the Company has projected expected losses to be paid for TruPS CDOs of $10 million. During Second Quarter 2015, there was positive economic development of approximately $4 million, which was due primarily to improving collateral performance during the quarter. During Six Months 2015, there was positive economic development of approximately $13 million, which was due primarily to improving collateral performance during the period.

Student Loan Transactions
 
The Company has insured or reinsured $1.8 billion net par of student loan securitizations issued by private issuers and that it classifies as structured finance. Of this amount, $167 million is rated BIG. The Company is projecting approximately $58 million of net expected loss to be paid on these transactions. In general, the losses are due to: (i) the poor credit performance of private student loan collateral and high loss severities, or (ii) high interest rates on auction rate securities with respect to which the auctions have failed. The negative economic development during Second Quarter 2015 was approximately $1 million, which was due primarily to delinquencies in the loan portfolio being slightly higher than expected. The positive economic development during Six Months 2015 was approximately $5 million, which was driven primarily by a partial commutation by the underlying insurer during the first quarter.

Other structured finance

The Company's other structured finance include $1.9 billion net par rated BIG, including a distressed collateralized loan obligation ("CLO") transaction, a commercial mortgage-backed security ("CMBS") transaction, transactions backed by manufactured housing loans and quota share surety reinsurance contracts on Spanish housing cooperatives. In Second Quarter 2015 the Radian Asset Acquisition added $101 million in net economic losses for other structured finance credits. The Company has expected loss to be paid of $96 million as of June 30, 2015. The economic loss development during Second Quarter 2015 was a negative $1 million and for Six Months 2015 was a positive $2 million.

The two transactions most sensitive to changes in losses in the future are the distressed CLO and the CMBS transactions. For the distressed CLO, in its most pessimistic scenario, where the primary insurer defaults (the Company's contract is a second-to-pay policy), the expected loss could increase by $111 million. In its most optimistic scenario, where the primary insurer pays the full claim, the Company would have no expected losses. For the CMBS, in its most pessimistic scenario, the expected losses could result in $143 million of additional losses, while its most optimistic scenario would result in no expected losses. Expected losses in its CMBS sector are based on the expected values of various commercial real estate properties.
    
Recovery Litigation
 
RMBS Transactions
 
In November 2014, AGM and its affiliate AGC reached a confidential settlement with DLJ Mortgage Capital, Inc., Credit Suisse First Boston Mortgage Securities Corp. and Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC to resolve a lawsuit relating to six first lien U.S. RMBS transactions. AGM and AGC sought damages for alleged breaches of representations and warranties in respect of the underlying loans in these transactions, and failure to cure or repurchase defective loans identified by AGM and AGC.  On November 25, 2014, the parties filed a joint stipulation discontinuing the lawsuit with prejudice.  However, on November 20, 2014, U.S. Bank National Association, as trustee for the transactions, had filed a motion to intervene as a plaintiff in the lawsuit.  On November 26, 2014, the trustee submitted a letter stating that the joint stipulation is ineffective and that the lawsuit may be discontinued only by court order, and requesting an opportunity to review and potentially oppose the settlement.  On March 5, 2015 the Court denied the motion to intervene.

Triple-X Life Insurance Transactions
 
In December 2008, AGUK filed an action against J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. (“JPMIM”), the investment manager in the Orkney transaction, in the Supreme Court of the State of New York alleging that JPMIM engaged in breaches of fiduciary duty, gross negligence and breaches of contract based upon its handling of the Orkney investments. After AGUK’s claims were dismissed with prejudice in January 2010, AGUK was successful in its subsequent motions and appeals and, as of December 2011, all of AGUK’s claims for breaches of fiduciary duty, gross negligence and contract were reinstated in full. Discovery is ongoing.

Public Finance Transactions

On November 1, 2013, Radian Asset commenced a declaratory judgment action in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Mississippi against Madison County, Mississippi and the Parkway East Public Improvement District to establish its rights under a contribution agreement from the County supporting certain special assessment bonds issued by the District and insured by Radian Asset (now AGC). As of June 30, 2015, $21 million of such bonds were outstanding. The County maintains that its payment obligation is limited to two years of annual debt service, while AGC contends no such limitation applies. On April 20, 2015, the Court issued an order addressing AGC's and the County's cross-motions for partial summary judgment, and denied the County's motion for summary judgment that its payment obligation lasts only two years. Discovery is ongoing.