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Outstanding Exposure
6 Months Ended
Jun. 30, 2015
Outstanding Exposure Disclosure  
Outstanding Exposure
Outstanding Exposure
 
The Company’s financial guaranty contracts are written in either insurance or credit derivative form, but collectively are considered financial guaranty contracts. The Company seeks to limit its exposure to losses by underwriting obligations that are investment grade at inception, or in the case of restructurings of troubled credits, the Company may underwrite new issuances that one or more of the rating agencies may rate below-investment-grade ("BIG") as part of its loss mitigation strategy. The Company diversifies its insured portfolio across asset classes and, in the structured finance portfolio, requires rigorous subordination or collateralization requirements. Reinsurance is utilized in order to reduce net exposure to certain insured transactions.

     Public finance obligations insured by the Company consist primarily of general obligation bonds supported by the taxing powers of U.S. state or municipal governmental authorities, as well as tax-supported bonds, revenue bonds and other obligations supported by covenants from state or municipal governmental authorities or other municipal obligors to impose and collect fees and charges for public services or specific infrastructure projects. The Company also includes within public finance obligations those obligations backed by the cash flow from leases or other revenues from projects serving substantial public purposes, including utilities, toll roads, health care facilities and government office buildings.

Structured finance obligations insured by the Company are generally issued by special purpose entities, including VIEs, and backed by pools of assets having an ascertainable cash flow or market value or other specialized financial obligations. Some of these VIEs are consolidated as described in Note 10, Consolidated Variable Interest Entities. Unless otherwise specified, the outstanding par and Debt Service amounts presented in this note include outstanding exposures on VIEs whether or not they are consolidated.

Surveillance Categories
 
The Company segregates its insured portfolio into investment grade and BIG surveillance categories to facilitate the appropriate allocation of resources to monitoring and loss mitigation efforts and to aid in establishing the appropriate cycle for periodic review for each exposure. BIG exposures include all exposures with internal credit ratings below BBB-. The Company’s internal credit ratings are based on internal assessments of the likelihood of default and loss severity in the event of default. Internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by the rating agencies and are generally reflective of an approach similar to that employed by the rating agencies, except that the Company's internal credit ratings focus on future performance, rather than lifetime performance.
 
The Company monitors its investment grade credits to determine whether any need to be internally downgraded to BIG and refreshes its internal credit ratings on individual credits in quarterly, semi-annual or annual cycles based on the Company’s view of the credit’s quality, loss potential, volatility and sector. Ratings on credits in sectors identified as under the most stress or with the most potential volatility are reviewed every quarter. The Company’s credit ratings on assumed credits are based on the Company’s reviews of low-rated credits or credits in volatile sectors, unless such information is not available, in which case, the ceding company’s credit rating of the transactions are used. The Company models the performance of many of its structured finance transactions as part of its periodic internal credit rating review of them.
 
Credits identified as BIG are subjected to further review to determine the probability of a loss. See Note 6, Expected Loss to be Paid, for additional information. Surveillance personnel then assign each BIG transaction to the appropriate BIG surveillance category based upon whether a future loss is expected and whether a claim has been paid. For surveillance purposes, the Company calculates present value using a constant discount rate of 4.5% or 5% depending on the insurance subsidiary. (Risk-free rates are used for calculating the expected loss for financial statement measurement purposes.)
 
More extensive monitoring and intervention is employed for all BIG surveillance categories, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. The Company expects “future losses” on a transaction when the Company believes there is at least a 50% chance that, on a present value basis, it will pay more claims in the future of that transaction than it will have reimbursed. The three BIG categories are:
 
BIG Category 1: Below-investment-grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make future losses possible, but for which none are currently expected.
 
BIG Category 2: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims which is a claim that the Company expects to be reimbursed within one year) have yet been paid.
 
BIG Category 3: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid.

Components of Outstanding Exposure

Unless otherwise noted, ratings disclosed herein on the Company's insured portfolio reflect its internal ratings. The Company classifies those portions of risks benefiting from reimbursement obligations collateralized by eligible assets held in trust in acceptable reimbursement structures as the higher of 'AA' or their current internal rating.

The Company purchases securities that it has insured, and for which it has expected losses to be paid, in order to
mitigate the economic effect of insured losses ("loss mitigation securities"). The Company excludes amounts attributable to loss mitigation securities (unless otherwise indicated) from par and Debt Service outstanding, because it manages such securities as investments and not insurance exposure.    

Financial Guaranty
Debt Service Outstanding

 
Gross Debt Service
Outstanding
 
Net Debt Service
Outstanding
 
June 30,
2015
 
December 31,
2014
 
June 30,
2015
 
December 31,
2014
 
(in millions)
Public finance
$
557,816

 
$
587,245

 
$
532,992

 
$
553,612

Structured finance
54,177

 
59,477

 
51,436

 
56,010

Total financial guaranty
$
611,993

 
$
646,722

 
$
584,428

 
$
609,622



In addition to the amounts shown in the table above, the Company’s net mortgage guaranty insurance debt service was approximately $117 million as of June 30, 2015 and $127 million as of December 31, 2014, related to loans originated in Ireland. As of June 30, 2015, the Company also had exposure to €12 million of surety reinsurance contracts relating to Spanish housing cooperatives risk.

Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating (2)
As of June 30, 2015

 
 
Public Finance
U.S.
 
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
 
Structured Finance
U.S
 
Structured Finance
Non-U.S
 
Total
Rating
Category
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
 
(dollars in millions)
AAA
 
$
3,280

 
1.1
%
 
$
695

 
2.1
%
 
$
17,619

 
45.3
%
 
$
3,715

 
53.2
%
 
$
25,309

 
6.5
%
AA
 
80,550

 
25.8

 
2,735

 
8.5

 
8,628

 
22.2

 
395

 
5.7

 
92,308

 
23.6

A
 
171,633

 
55.0

 
7,627

 
23.6

 
2,684

 
6.9

 
378

 
5.4

 
182,322

 
46.7

BBB
 
46,822

 
15.0

 
19,651

 
60.8

 
1,797

 
4.6

 
1,771

 
25.4

 
70,041

 
17.9

BIG
 
9,897

 
3.1

 
1,611

 
5.0

 
8,178

 
21.0

 
718

 
10.3

 
20,404

 
5.3

Total net par outstanding (1)
 
$
312,182

 
100.0
%
 
$
32,319

 
100.0
%
 
$
38,906

 
100.0
%
 
$
6,977

 
100.0
%
 
$
390,384

 
100.0
%
_____________________
(1)
Excludes $1.2 billion of loss mitigation securities insured and held by the Company as of June 30, 2015, which are primarily in the BIG category.

(2)
The June 30, 2015 amounts include $13.1 billion of net par acquired from Radian Asset.



Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating
As of December 31, 2014 

 
 
Public Finance
U.S.
 
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
 
Structured Finance
U.S
 
Structured Finance
Non-U.S
 
Total
Rating
Category
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
 
(dollars in millions)
AAA
 
$
4,082

 
1.3
%
 
$
615

 
2.0
%
 
$
20,037

 
48.7
%
 
$
5,409

 
59.6
%
 
$
30,143

 
7.5
%
AA
 
90,464

 
28.1

 
2,785

 
8.9

 
8,213

 
19.9

 
503

 
5.5

 
101,965

 
25.3

A
 
176,298

 
54.7

 
7,192

 
22.9

 
2,940

 
7.1

 
445

 
4.9

 
186,875

 
46.3

BBB
 
43,429

 
13.5

 
19,363

 
61.7

 
1,795

 
4.4

 
1,912

 
21.1

 
66,499

 
16.4

BIG
 
7,850

 
2.4

 
1,404

 
4.5

 
8,186

 
19.9

 
807

 
8.9

 
18,247

 
4.5

Total net par outstanding (1)
 
$
322,123

 
100.0
%
 
$
31,359

 
100.0
%
 
$
41,171

 
100.0
%
 
$
9,076

 
100.0
%
 
$
403,729

 
100.0
%
_____________________
(1)
Excludes $1.3 billion of loss mitigation securities insured and held by the Company as of December 31, 2014, which are primarily in the BIG category.

In addition to amounts shown in the tables above, the Company had outstanding commitments to provide guaranties of $1.2 billion for public finance obligations as of June 30, 2015. The expiration dates for the public finance commitments range between July 1, 2015 and February 25, 2017, with $609 million expiring prior to the date of this filing and an additional $477 million expiring prior to December 31, 2015. The commitments are contingent on the satisfaction of all conditions set forth in them and may expire unused or be canceled at the counterparty’s request. Therefore, the total commitment amount does not necessarily reflect actual future guaranteed amounts.

Components of BIG Portfolio

Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding
(Insurance and Credit Derivative Form)
As of June 30, 2015

 
BIG Net Par Outstanding
 
Net Par
 
BIG 1
 
BIG 2
 
BIG 3
 
Total BIG
 
Outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
(in millions)
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
7,622

 
$
2,132

 
$
143

 
$
9,897

 
$
312,182

Non-U.S. public finance
952

 
659

 

 
1,611

 
32,319

Structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities ("RMBS"):
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Prime first lien
246

 
61

 
29

 
336

 
498

Alt-A first lien
543

 
430

 
777

 
1,750

 
2,397

Option ARM
44

 
15

 
101

 
160

 
338

Subprime
218

 
512

 
827

 
1,557

 
3,920

Second lien U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien
0

 
19

 
112

 
131

 
208

Home equity lines of credit (“HELOCs”)
877

 
34

 
548

 
1,459

 
1,567

Total U.S. RMBS
1,928

 
1,071

 
2,394

 
5,393

 
8,928

Triple-X life insurance transactions

 

 
598

 
598

 
3,133

Trust preferred securities (“TruPS”)
560

 

 
306

 
866

 
4,850

Student loans

 
81

 
86

 
167

 
1,827

Other structured finance
1,660

 
169

 
43

 
1,872

 
27,145

Total
$
12,722

 
$
4,112

 
$
3,570

 
$
20,404

 
$
390,384

Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding
(Insurance and Credit Derivative Form)
As of December 31, 2014

 
BIG Net Par Outstanding
 
Net Par
 
BIG 1
 
BIG 2
 
BIG 3
 
Total BIG
 
Outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
(in millions)
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
6,577

 
$
1,156

 
$
117

 
$
7,850

 
$
322,123

Non-U.S. public finance
1,402

 
2

 

 
1,404

 
31,359

Structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Prime first lien
68

 
33

 
252

 
353

 
471

Alt-A first lien
585

 
531

 
725

 
1,841

 
2,532

Option ARM
47

 
18

 
118

 
183

 
407

Subprime
156

 
654

 
765

 
1,575

 
4,051

Second lien U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed-end second lien

 
19

 
115

 
134

 
218

HELOCs
1,012

 
36

 
509

 
1,557

 
1,738

Total U.S. RMBS
1,868

 
1,291

 
2,484

 
5,643

 
9,417

Triple-X life insurance transactions

 

 
598

 
598

 
3,133

TruPS
997

 

 
336

 
1,333

 
4,326

Student loans
14

 
68

 
113

 
195

 
1,857

Other structured finance
1,007

 
172

 
45

 
1,224

 
31,514

Total
$
11,865

 
$
2,689

 
$
3,693

 
$
18,247

 
$
403,729




BIG Net Par Outstanding
and Number of Risks
As of June 30, 2015

 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Number of Risks(2)
Description
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
 
(dollars in millions)
BIG:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Category 1
 
$
10,504

 
$
2,218

 
$
12,722

 
266

 
22

 
288

Category 2
 
3,389

 
723

 
4,112

 
76

 
11

 
87

Category 3
 
3,011

 
559

 
3,570

 
126

 
24

 
150

Total BIG
 
$
16,904

 
$
3,500

 
$
20,404

 
468

 
57

 
525



 BIG Net Par Outstanding
and Number of Risks
As of December 31, 2014

 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Number of Risks(2)
Description
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
 
(dollars in millions)
BIG:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Category 1
 
$
10,195

 
$
1,670

 
$
11,865

 
164

 
18

 
182

Category 2
 
2,135

 
554

 
2,689

 
75

 
14

 
89

Category 3
 
2,892

 
801

 
3,693

 
119

 
24

 
143

Total BIG
 
$
15,222

 
$
3,025

 
$
18,247

 
358

 
56

 
414

_____________________
(1)    Includes net par outstanding for VIEs.
 
(2)
A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making Debt Service payments.
 
Exposure to Puerto Rico
         
The Company insures general obligation bonds of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations aggregating $5.4 billion net par as of June 30, 2015, all of which are rated BIG. In Second Quarter 2015, the Company's Puerto Rico exposures increased due to (1) the Radian Asset Acquisition, which increased net par by $422 million, and (2) a commutation of previously ceded Puerto Rico exposures.

Puerto Rico has experienced significant general fund budget deficits in recent years. These deficits have been covered primarily with the net proceeds of bond issuances, interim financings provided by Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico (“GDB”) and, in some cases, one-time revenue measures or expense adjustment measures. In addition to high debt levels, Puerto Rico faces a challenging economic environment.

In June 2014, the Puerto Rico legislature passed the Puerto Rico Public Corporation Debt Enforcement and Recovery Act (the "Recovery Act") in order to provide a legislative framework for certain public corporations experiencing severe financial stress to restructure their debt, including Puerto Rico Highway and Transportation Authority ("PRHTA") and Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority ("PREPA"). Subsequently, the Commonwealth stated PREPA might need to seek relief under the Recovery Act due to liquidity constraints. Investors in bonds issued by PREPA filed suit in the United States District Court for the District of Puerto Rico challenging the Recovery Act. On February 6, 2015, the U.S. District Court for the District of Puerto Rico ruled the Recovery Act is preempted by the U.S. Bankruptcy Code and is therefore void; on July 6, 2015, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit upheld that ruling. In addition, the Commonwealth's Resident Commissioner has introduced a bill to the U.S. Congress that, if passed, would enable the Commonwealth to authorize one or more of its public corporations to restructure their debts under chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code if they were to become insolvent. The passage of the Recovery Act, its subsequent invalidation, and the introduction of legislation that would enable the Commonwealth to authorize chapter 9 protection for its public corporations have resulted in uncertainty among investors about the rights of creditors of the Commonwealth and its related authorities and public corporations.

On June 28, 2015, Governor García Padilla of Puerto Rico publicly stated that the Commonwealth’s public debt, considering the current level of activity, is unpayable and that a comprehensive debt restructuring may be necessary. On June 29, 2015 a report commissioned by the Commonwealth and authored by former World Bank Chief Economist and former Deputy Director of the International Monetary Fund Dr. Anne Krueger and economists Dr. Ranjit Teja and Dr. Andrew Wolfe and calling for debt restructuring of all Puerto Rico bonds was released ("Krueger Report"). The Governor recently formed a task force to prepare a five-year stability plan and start broad debt negotiation discussions.

On August 3, 2015, Puerto Rico Public Finance Corporation (“PFC”), a subsidiary of the GDB, failed to make most of an approximately $58 million debt service payment because the Commonwealth’s legislature did not appropriate funds for payment.  The Company does not insure any obligations of the PFC. Also on August 3, 2015, the Commonwealth announced that it had temporarily suspended its monthly deposits to the general obligation redemption fund.
    
S&P, Moody’s and Fitch Ratings have lowered the credit rating of the Commonwealth’s bonds and on certain of its public corporations several times over the past approximately two years, and the Commonwealth has disclosed its liquidity has been adversely affected by rating agency downgrades and by the limited market access for its debt, and also noted it has relied on short-term financings and interim loans from the GDB and other private lenders, which reliance has constrained its liquidity and increased its near-term refinancing risk.
 
PREPA

As of June 30, 2015, the Company insured $818 million net par of PREPA obligations, which was reduced to $744 million by a payment made on July 1, 2015. In August 2014, PREPA entered into forbearance agreements with the GDB, its bank lenders, and bondholders and financial guaranty insurers (including AGM and AGC) that hold or guarantee more than 60% of PREPA's outstanding bonds, in order to address its near-term liquidity issues. Creditors, including AGM and AGC, agreed not to exercise available rights and remedies until March 31, 2015, and the bank lenders agreed to extend the maturity of two revolving lines of credit to the same date. PREPA agreed it would continue to make principal and interest payments on its outstanding bonds, and interest payments on its lines of credit. It also agreed it would develop a five year business plan and a recovery program in respect of its operations; a preliminary business plan was released in December 2014. Subsequently, the parties extended these forbearance agreements several times, and they now expire on September 15, 2015.
    
On July 1, 2015, PREPA made full payment of the $416 million of principal and interest due on its bonds, including bonds insured by AGM and AGC. However, that payment was conditioned on and facilitated by AGM and AGC agreeing, also on July 1, to purchase a portion of $131 million of interest-bearing bonds to help replenish certain of the operating funds PREPA used to make the $416 million of principal and interest payments. On July 31, 2015, AGM and AGC purchased $74 million aggregate principal amount of those bonds.

PREPA and its creditors (including AGM and AGC) continue to negotiate the terms of a potential consensual recovery plan. Since the expiration of relevant confidentiality agreements on July 22, 2015, several competing proposals have been made public. There can be no assurance that the negotiations will result in agreement on an actual consensual recovery plan. PREPA, during the pendency of the forbearance agreements, has suspended deposits into its debt service fund.
    
PRHTA

As of June 30, 2015, the Company insured $934 million net par of PRHTA (Transportation revenue) bonds and $376 million net par of PRHTA (Highway revenue) bonds. In March 2015, legislation was passed in the Commonwealth that, among other things, provided for an increase in oil taxes that would benefit PRHTA, the transfer out of PRHTA of certain deficit-producing transit facilities, and a statutory lien on revenues at PRHTA, subject to certain conditions, including the issuance of at least $1.0 billion of bonds by the Puerto Rico Infrastructure Finance Authority ("PRIFA"). That legislative package would have supported proposals involving the GDB and PRIFA that contemplated PRIFA issuing up to $2.95 billion of bonds and a series of potential actions that would have, among other things, strengthened PRHTA. However, the Governor’s statement in late June 2015 that a comprehensive debt restructuring may be necessary has created uncertainty around this effort, and published reports suggest that there may not be a market for the debt issuance by PRIFA that was contemplated as part of a series of actions that would have strengthened PRHTA. In addition, because certain revenues supporting PRHTA are subject to a prior constitutional claim of the Commonwealth, the increased financial difficulties of the Commonwealth itself has increased the uncertainty regarding the full and timely receipt by PRHTA of such revenues.

The following tables show the Company’s exposure to general obligation bonds of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations.

Puerto Rico
Gross Par and Gross Debt Service Outstanding

 
Gross Par Outstanding
 
Gross Debt Service Outstanding
 
June 30,
2015
 
December 31,
2014
 
June 30,
2015
 
December 31,
2014
 
(in millions)
Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act (1)
$
3,135

 
$
3,058

 
$
5,408

 
$
5,326

Not Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act
3,087

 
2,977

 
4,852

 
4,748

   Total
$
6,222

 
$
6,035

 
$
10,260

 
$
10,074

____________________
(1)
On February 6, 2015, the U.S. District Court for the District of Puerto Rico ruled that the Recovery Act is preempted by the Federal Bankruptcy Code and is therefore void, and on July 6, 2015, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit upheld that ruling.

Puerto Rico
Net Par Outstanding

 
 
As of
June 30, 2015
 
As of
December 31, 2014
 
 
Total (1)(2)
 
Internal Rating
 
Total
 
Internal Rating
 
 
(in millions)
Exposures Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
PRHTA (Transportation revenue)
 
$
934

 
CCC-
 
$
844

 
BB-
PREPA
 
818

 
CC
 
772

 
B-
Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority
 
403

 
CCC
 
384

 
BB-
PRHTA (Highway revenue)
 
376

 
CCC
 
273

 
BB
Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority
 
174

 
CCC-
 
174

 
BB-
Total
 
2,705

 
 
 
2,447

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Exposures Not Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds
 
1,744

 
CCC
 
1,672

 
BB
Puerto Rico Municipal Finance Agency
 
444

 
CCC-
 
399

 
BB-
Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation
 
269

 
CCC+
 
269

 
BBB
Puerto Rico Public Buildings Authority
 
216

 
CCC
 
100

 
BB
GDB
 
33

 
CCC
 
33

 
BB
PRIFA
 
18

 
CCC-
 
18

 
BB-
University of Puerto Rico
 
1

 
CCC-
 
1

 
BB-
Total
 
2,725

 
 
 
2,492

 
 
Total net exposure to Puerto Rico
 
$
5,430

 
 
 
$
4,939

 
 
____________________
(1)
In Second Quarter 2015, the Company's Puerto Rico exposures increased due to (1) the Radian Asset Acquisition, which increased net par outstanding by $422 million, of which $22 million was for PREPA and $169 million for PRHTA, and (2) a commutation of previously ceded Puerto Rico exposures.

(2)
In July 2015, various Puerto Rico issuers made payment on $293 million of par scheduled to be paid; of that amount, $74 million and $31 million of par was paid by PREPA and PRHTA, respectively.

The following table shows the scheduled amortization of the insured general obligation bonds of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations. The Company guarantees payments of interest and principal when those amounts are scheduled to be paid and cannot be required to pay on an accelerated basis. In the event that obligors default on their obligations, the Company would only be required to pay the shortfall between the principal and interest due in any given period and the amount paid by the obligors.
     
Amortization Schedule of Puerto Rico Net Par Outstanding
and Net Debt Service Outstanding
As of June 30, 2015

 
Scheduled Net Par Amortization
 
Scheduled Net Debt Service Amortization
 
 
Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act
 
Not Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act
 
Total
 
Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act
 
Not Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act
 
Total
 
 
(in millions)
 
2015 (July 1 - September 30)
$
131

 
$
207

 
$
338

 
$
198

 
$
276

 
$
474

 
2015 (October 1 - December 31)
0

 
33

 
33

 
2

 
35

 
37

 
2016
98

 
204

 
302

 
229

 
332

 
561

 
2017
51

 
171

 
222

 
175

 
289

 
464

 
2018
56

 
123

 
179

 
178

 
232

 
410

 
2019
74

 
130

 
204

 
192

 
232

 
424

 
2020
87

 
183

 
270

 
202

 
280

 
482

 
2021
66

 
60

 
126

 
177

 
147

 
324

 
2022
47

 
68

 
115

 
153

 
152

 
305

 
2023
110

 
41

 
151

 
214

 
123

 
337

 
2024
89

 
85

 
174

 
187

 
165

 
352

 
2025-2029
619

 
395

 
1,014

 
1,032

 
723

 
1,755

 
2030-2034
505

 
475

 
980

 
787

 
712

 
1,499

 
2035 -2039
429

 
283

 
712

 
567

 
382

 
949

 
2040 -2044
97

 
267

 
364

 
171

 
296

 
467

 
2045 -2047
246

 

 
246

 
272

 

 
272

 
Total
$
2,705

 
$
2,725

 
$
5,430

 
$
4,736

 
$
4,376

 
$
9,112

 


Exposure to the Selected European Countries

Several European countries continue to experience significant economic, fiscal and/or political strains such that the likelihood of default on obligations with a nexus to those countries may be higher than the Company anticipated when such factors did not exist. The European countries where the Company has exposure and believes heightened uncertainties exist are: Hungary, Italy, Portugal and Spain (collectively, the “Selected European Countries”). The Company is closely monitoring its exposures in the Selected European Countries where it believes heightened uncertainties exist. The Company’s direct economic exposure to the Selected European Countries (based on par for financial guaranty contracts and notional amount for financial guaranty contracts accounted for as derivatives) is shown in the following table, net of ceded reinsurance.
Net Direct Economic Exposure to Selected European Countries(1)
As of June 30, 2015

 
Hungary
 
Italy
 
Portugal
 
Spain
 
Total
 
(in millions)
Sovereign and sub-sovereign exposure:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Non-infrastructure public finance (2)
$

 
$
813

 
$
90

 
$
257

 
$
1,160

Infrastructure finance
291

 
11

 
11

 
126

 
439

Total sovereign and sub-sovereign exposure
291

 
824

 
101

 
383

 
1,599

Non-sovereign exposure:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Regulated utilities

 
226

 

 

 
226

RMBS and other structured finance
175

 
256

 

 
13

 
444

Total non-sovereign exposure
175

 
482

 

 
13

 
670

Total
$
466

 
$
1,306

 
$
101

 
$
396

 
$
2,269

Total BIG (See Note 6)
$
397

 
$

 
$
101

 
$
396

 
$
894

____________________
(1)
While the Company’s exposures are shown in U.S. dollars, the obligations the Company insures are in various currencies, primarily Euros. One of the residential mortgage-backed securities included in the table above includes residential mortgages in both Italy and Germany, and only the portion of the transaction equal to the portion of the original mortgage pool in Italian mortgages is shown in the table.

(2)
The exposure shown in the “Non-infrastructure public finance” category is from transactions backed by receivable payments from sub-sovereigns in Italy, Spain and Portugal. Sub-sovereign debt is debt issued by a governmental entity or government backed entity, or supported by such an entity, that is other than direct sovereign debt of the ultimate governing body of the country.
When the Company directly insures an obligation, it assigns the obligation to a geographic location or locations based on its view of the geographic location of the risk. The Company may also have direct exposures to the Selected European Countries in business assumed from unaffiliated monoline insurance companies, in which case the Company depends upon geographic information provided by the primary insurer.

The Company has excluded from the exposure tables above its indirect economic exposure to the Selected European Countries through policies it provides on pooled corporate and commercial receivables transactions. The Company calculates indirect exposure to a country by multiplying the par amount of a transaction insured by the Company times the percent of the relevant collateral pool reported as having a nexus to the country. On that basis, the Company has calculated exposure of $332 million to Selected European Countries (plus Greece) in transactions with $5.2 billion of net par outstanding. The indirect exposure to credits with a nexus to Greece is $10 million across several highly rated pooled corporate obligations with net par outstanding of $404 million.