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Outstanding Exposure
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2013
Outstanding Exposure Disclosure  
Outstanding Exposure
Outstanding Exposure
 
The Company’s financial guaranty contracts are written in either insurance or credit derivative form, but collectively are considered financial guaranty contracts. The Company seeks to limit its exposure to losses by underwriting obligations that are investment grade at inception, diversifying its insured portfolio and maintaining rigorous subordination or collateralization requirements on structured finance obligations. The Company also has utilized reinsurance by ceding business to third-party reinsurers. The Company provides financial guaranties with respect to debt obligations of special purpose entities, including variable interest entities ("VIEs"). Some of these VIEs are consolidated as described in Note 10, Consolidation of Variable Interest Entities. The outstanding par and Debt Service amounts presented below include outstanding exposures on VIEs whether or not they are consolidated.
 
The Company has issued financial guaranty insurance policies on public finance obligations and structured finance obligations. Public finance obligations insured by the Company consist primarily of general obligation bonds supported by the taxing powers of U.S. state or municipal governmental authorities, as well as tax-supported bonds, revenue bonds and other obligations supported by covenants from state or municipal governmental authorities or other municipal obligors to impose and collect fees and charges for public services or specific infrastructure projects. The Company also includes within public finance obligations those obligations backed by the cash flow from leases or other revenues from projects serving substantial public purposes, including utilities, toll roads, health care facilities and government office buildings. Structured finance obligations insured by the Company are generally issued by special purpose entities and backed by pools of assets having an ascertainable cash flow or market value or other specialized financial obligations.

Significant Risk Management Activities

The Portfolio Risk Management Committee, which includes members of senior management and senior credit and surveillance officers, sets specific risk policies and limits and is responsible for enterprise risk management, establishing the Company's risk appetite, credit underwriting of new business, surveillance and work-out.

Surveillance personnel are responsible for monitoring and reporting on all transactions in the insured portfolio. The primary objective of the surveillance process is to monitor trends and changes in transaction credit quality, detect any deterioration in credit quality, and recommend to management such remedial actions as may be necessary or appropriate. All transactions in the insured portfolio are assigned internal credit ratings, and surveillance personnel are responsible for recommending adjustments to those ratings to reflect changes in transaction credit quality.

Work-out personnel are responsible for managing work-out and loss mitigation situations, working with surveillance and legal personnel (as well as outside vendors) as appropriate. They develop strategies for the Company to enforce its contractual rights and remedies and to mitigate its losses, engage in negotiation discussions with transaction participants and, when necessary, manage (along with legal personnel) the Company's litigation proceedings.

During the third quarter of 2013, the Company changed the manner in which it presents par outstanding and Debt Service in two ways. First, the Company had included securities purchased for loss mitigation purposes both in its invested assets portfolio and its financial guaranty insured portfolio. Beginning with the third quarter of 2013, the Company excluded such loss mitigation securities from its disclosure about its financial guaranty insured portfolio (unless otherwise indicated) because it manages such securities as investments and not insurance exposure. Second, the Company refined its approach to its internal credit ratings and surveillance categories. Please refer to "Refinement of Approach to Internal Credit Ratings and Surveillance Categories" below for additional information.

Surveillance Categories
 
The Company segregates its insured portfolio into investment grade and below-investment-grade ("BIG") surveillance categories to facilitate the appropriate allocation of resources to monitoring and loss mitigation efforts and to aid in establishing the appropriate cycle for periodic review for each exposure. BIG exposures include all exposures with internal credit ratings below BBB-. The Company’s internal credit ratings are based on internal assessments of the likelihood of default and loss severity in the event of default. Internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by the rating agencies and are generally reflective of an approach similar to that employed by the rating agencies, except that, beginning third quarter, the Company's internal credit ratings focus on future performance, rather than lifetime performance. See "Refinement of Approach to Internal Credit Ratings and Surveillance Categories" below.
 
The Company monitors its investment grade credits to determine whether any new credits need to be internally downgraded to BIG. The Company refreshes its internal credit ratings on individual credits in quarterly, semi-annual or annual cycles based on the Company’s view of the credit’s quality, loss potential, volatility and sector. Ratings on credits in sectors identified as under the most stress or with the most potential volatility are reviewed every quarter. The Company’s insured credit ratings on assumed credits are based on the Company’s reviews of low-rated credits or credits in volatile sectors, unless such information is not available, in which case, the ceding company’s credit rating of the transactions are used. The Company models the performance of many of its structured finance transactions as part of its periodic internal credit rating review of them. The Company models most assumed residential mortgage-backed security ("RMBS") credits with par above $1 million, as well as certain RMBS credits below that amount.
 
Credits identified as BIG are subjected to further review to determine the probability of a loss (see Note 6, Expected Loss to be Paid). Surveillance personnel then assign each BIG transaction to the appropriate BIG surveillance category based upon whether a future loss is expected and whether a claim has been paid. The Company expects “future losses” on a transaction when the Company believes there is at least a 50% chance that, on a present value basis, it will pay more claims over the future of that transaction than it will have reimbursed. For surveillance purposes, the Company calculates present value using a constant discount rate of 5%. (A risk-free rate is used for calculating the expected loss for financial statement purposes.)
 
More extensive monitoring and intervention is employed for all BIG surveillance categories, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. In 2013, the Company refined the definitions of its BIG surveillance categories to be consistent with its new approach to assigning internal credit ratings. See "Refinement of Approach to Internal Credit Ratings and Surveillance Categories". The three BIG categories are:
 
BIG Category 1: Below-investment-grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make future losses possible, but for which none are currently expected.
 
BIG Category 2: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims which is a claim that the Company expects to be reimbursed within one year) have yet been paid.
 
BIG Category 3: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid.
 
Refinement of Approach to Internal Credit Ratings and Surveillance Categories

Typically, when an issuer of a debt security has defaulted on a payment and has not made up that missed payment, the debt security is considered by the rating agencies to be below-investment-grade regardless of its current credit condition. Similarly, the Company had previously considered those securities on which it has made an insurance claim payment that had not been reimbursed to be BIG regardless of their current credit condition.

Structured finance transactions often include mechanisms for reimbursing the Company for its insurance claim payments from assets underlying the transactions to the extent permitted by asset performance. With improvements beginning to occur in the performance of the assets underlying some of the structured finance securities the Company has insured, the Company is receiving reimbursements on some transactions on which it had paid claims in the past. As a result of these improvements, it now projects receiving reimbursements (rather than making claims) in the future on some of those transactions. Under the old approach, a transaction with a projected lifetime loss, no matter how strong on a prospective basis, was required to be rated BIG. During the third quarter of 2013, the Company revised its approach to internal credit ratings. Under its revised approach, a transaction may be rated investment grade if it (a) has turned generally cash-flow positive and (b) is projected to have net future reimbursements with sufficient cushion to warrant an investment grade rating, even if it is projected to have ending lifetime unreimbursed insurance claim payments. The new approach resulted in the upgrade to investment grade of one RMBS transaction with a net par of $25 million at December 31, 2012.

The Company also applied its change in approach to internal credit ratings to the Surveillance BIG Category definitions. Previously the BIG Category definitions were based in large part on whether lifetime losses were projected. Under the new approach, the BIG Category definitions are based on whether future losses are projected. In addition to the upgrade out of BIG described above, the change in approach resulted in the migration of a number of risks within BIG Categories.

Effect of Refinement in Approach to
Internal Credit Ratings and Surveillance Categories
on Net Par Outstanding
As of December 31, 2012

 
Previous Approach
 
New Approach
 
Difference
 
(in millions)
BIG 1
$
9,254

 
$
10,820

 
$
1,566

BIG 2
4,617

 
4,617

 

BIG 3
8,451

 
6,860

 
(1,591
)
Total
$
22,322

 
$
22,297

 
$
(25
)

Components of Outstanding Exposure

Debt Service Outstanding

 
Gross Debt Service
Outstanding
 
Net Debt Service
Outstanding
 
December 31,
2013
 
December 31,
2012
 
December 31,
2013
 
December 31,
2012
 
(in millions)
Public finance
$
650,924

 
$
722,478

 
$
610,011

 
$
677,285

Structured finance
86,456

 
110,620

 
80,524

 
103,071

Total financial guaranty
$
737,380

 
$
833,098

 
$
690,535

 
$
780,356



    
Unless otherwise noted, ratings disclosed herein on Assured Guaranty's insured portfolio reflect Assured Guaranty's internal ratings. The Company classifies those portions of risks benefiting from reimbursement obligations collateralized by eligible assets held in trust in acceptable reimbursement structures as the higher of 'AA' or their current internal rating.

Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating
As of December 31, 2013 

 
 
Public Finance
U.S.
 
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
 
Structured Finance
U.S
 
Structured Finance
Non-U.S
 
Total
Rating
Category (1)
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
 
(dollars in millions)
AAA
 
$
4,998

 
1.4
%
 
$
1,016

 
3.0
%
 
$
32,317

 
54.9
%
 
$
9,684

 
69.1
%
 
$
48,015

 
10.5
%
AA
 
107,503

 
30.5

 
422

 
1.2

 
9,431

 
16.0

 
577

 
4.1

 
117,933

 
25.7

A
 
192,841

 
54.8

 
9,453

 
27.9

 
2,580

 
4.4

 
742

 
5.3

 
205,616

 
44.8

BBB
 
37,745

 
10.7

 
21,499

 
63.2

 
3,815

 
6.4

 
1,946

 
13.9

 
65,005

 
14.1

BIG
 
9,094

 
2.6

 
1,608

 
4.7

 
10,764

 
18.3

 
1,072

 
7.6

 
22,538

 
4.9

Total net par outstanding (excluding loss mitigation bonds)
 
$
352,181

 
100.0
%
 
$
33,998

 
100.0
%
 
$
58,907

 
100.0
%
 
$
14,021

 
100.0
%
 
$
459,107

 
100.0
%
Loss Mitigation Bonds
 
32

 
 
 

 
 
 
1,163

 
 
 

 
 
 
1,195

 
 
Total net par outstanding (including loss mitigation bonds)
 
$
352,213

 
 
 
$
33,998

 
 
 
$
60,070

 
 
 
$
14,021

 
 
 
$
460,302

 
 
 
Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating
As of December 31, 2012 

 
 
Public Finance
U.S.
 
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
 
Structured Finance
U.S
 
Structured Finance
Non-U.S
 
Total
Rating
Category (1)
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
 
(dollars in millions)
AAA
 
$
4,502

 
1.2
%
 
$
1,706

 
4.5
%
 
$
42,187

 
56.6
%
 
$
13,169

 
70.2
%
 
$
61,564

 
11.9
%
AA
 
124,525

 
32.1

 
875

 
2.3

 
9,543

 
12.8

 
722

 
3.9

 
135,665

 
26.1

A
 
210,124

 
54.1

 
9,781

 
26.1

 
4,670

 
6.3

 
1,409

 
7.5

 
225,984

 
43.6

BBB
 
44,213

 
11.4

 
22,885

 
61.0

 
3,737

 
5.0

 
2,427

 
12.9

 
73,262

 
14.1

BIG
 
4,565

 
1.2

 
2,293

 
6.1

 
14,398

 
19.3

 
1,041

 
5.5

 
22,297

 
4.3

Total net par outstanding (excluding loss mitigation bonds)
 
$
387,929

 
100.0
%
 
$
37,540

 
100.0
%
 
$
74,535

 
100.0
%
 
$
18,768

 
100.0
%
 
$
518,772

 
100.0
%
Loss Mitigation Bonds
 
38

 
 
 

 
 
 
1,083

 
 
 

 
 
 
1,121

 
 
Total net par outstanding (including loss mitigation bonds)
 
$
387,967

 
 
 
$
37,540

 
 
 
$
75,618

 
 
 
$
18,768

 
 
 
$
519,893

 
 
 ____________________
(1)
In the third quarter of 2013, the Company adjusted its approach to assigning internal ratings. See "Refinement of Approach to Internal Credit Ratings and Surveillance Categories" above. This approach is reflected in the "Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating" tables as of both December 31, 2013 and December 31, 2012.


 
Financial Guaranty Portfolio
by Sector
 
Gross Par Outstanding
 
Ceded Par Outstanding
 
Net Par Outstanding
Sector
As of December 31, 2013
 
As of December 31, 2012
 
As of December 31, 2013
 
As of December 31, 2012
 
As of December 31, 2013
 
As of December 31, 2012
 
(dollars in millions)
Public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

U.S.:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

General obligation
$
160,751

 
$
175,932

 
$
5,474

 
$
5,947

 
$
155,277

 
$
169,985

Tax backed
70,552

 
77,894

 
3,728

 
4,145

 
66,824

 
73,749

Municipal utilities
57,893

 
63,933

 
1,569

 
1,817

 
56,324

 
62,116

Transportation
32,514

 
35,624

 
1,684

 
1,825

 
30,830

 
33,799

Healthcare
17,663

 
19,507

 
1,531

 
1,669

 
16,132

 
17,838

Higher education
14,470

 
16,244

 
399

 
474

 
14,071

 
15,770

Infrastructure finance
5,014

 
5,100

 
900

 
890

 
4,114

 
4,210

Housing
3,518

 
4,792

 
132

 
159

 
3,386

 
4,633

Investor-owned utilities
992

 
1,070

 
1

 
1

 
991

 
1,069

Other public finance—U.S.
4,249

 
4,784

 
17

 
24

 
4,232

 
4,760

Total public finance—U.S.
367,616

 
404,880

 
15,435

 
16,951

 
352,181

 
387,929

Non-U.S.:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

Infrastructure finance
17,373

 
18,716

 
2,670

 
2,904

 
14,703

 
15,812

Regulated utilities
15,502

 
16,861

 
4,297

 
4,367

 
11,205

 
12,494

Pooled infrastructure
2,754

 
3,430

 
234

 
230

 
2,520

 
3,200

Other public finance—non-U.S.
6,645

 
7,297

 
1,075

 
1,263

 
5,570

 
6,034

Total public finance—non-U.S.
42,274

 
46,304

 
8,276

 
8,764

 
33,998

 
37,540

Total public finance
409,890

 
451,184

 
23,711

 
25,715

 
386,179

 
425,469

Structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

U.S.:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

Pooled corporate obligations
32,955

 
44,120

 
1,630

 
2,234

 
31,325

 
41,886

RMBS
14,542

 
18,114

 
821

 
1,079

 
13,721

 
17,035

Commercial mortgage-backed securities ("CMBS") and other commercial real estate related exposures
3,990

 
4,293

 
38

 
46

 
3,952

 
4,247

Insurance securitizations
3,082

 
2,991

 
47

 
48

 
3,035

 
2,943

Financial product
2,709

 
3,653

 

 

 
2,709

 
3,653

Consumer receivables
2,257

 
2,429

 
59

 
60

 
2,198

 
2,369

Commercial receivables
918

 
1,033

 
7

 
8

 
911

 
1,025

Structured credit
71

 
249

 
2

 
51

 
69

 
198

Other structured finance—U.S.
2,067

 
2,307

 
1,080

 
1,128

 
987

 
1,179

Total structured finance—U.S.
62,591

 
79,189

 
3,684

 
4,654

 
58,907

 
74,535

Non-U.S.:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

Pooled corporate obligations
12,232

 
16,288

 
1,174

 
1,475

 
11,058

 
14,813

Commercial receivables
1,286

 
1,489

 
23

 
26

 
1,263

 
1,463

RMBS
1,296

 
1,586

 
150

 
162

 
1,146

 
1,424

Structured credit
197

 
669

 
21

 
78

 
176

 
591

CMBS and other commercial real estate related exposures

 
100

 

 

 

 
100

Other structured finance—non-U.S.
403

 
402

 
25

 
25

 
378

 
377

Total structured finance—non-U.S.
15,414

 
20,534

 
1,393

 
1,766

 
14,021

 
18,768

Total structured finance
78,005

 
99,723

 
5,077

 
6,420

 
72,928

 
93,303

Total net par outstanding
$
487,895

 
$
550,907

 
$
28,788

 
$
32,135

 
$
459,107

 
$
518,772


In addition to the amounts shown in the table above, the Company’s net mortgage guaranty insurance in force was approximately $152 million as of December 31, 2013. The net mortgage guaranty insurance in force is assumed excess of loss business and comprises $144 million covering loans originated in Ireland and $8 million covering loans originated in the U.K.

In accordance with the terms of certain credit derivative contracts, the referenced obligations in such contracts have been delivered to the Company, and they therefore are included in the investment portfolio. Such amounts are still included in the financial guaranty insured portfolio, and totaled $195 million and $220 million in gross par outstanding as of December 31, 2013 and December 31, 2012, respectively.

Actual maturities of insured obligations could differ from contractual maturities because borrowers have the right to call or prepay certain obligations with or without call or prepayment penalties. The expected maturities of structured finance obligations are, in general, considerably shorter than the contractual maturities for such obligations.

Expected Amortization of
Net Par Outstanding
As of December 31, 2013

 
Public Finance
 
Structured Finance
 
Total
 
(in millions)
0 to 5 years
$
104,223

 
$
56,783

 
$
161,006

5 to 10 years
81,176

 
7,261

 
88,437

10 to 15 years
74,775

 
2,965

 
77,740

15 to 20 years
56,734

 
2,017

 
58,751

20 years and above
69,271

 
3,902

 
73,173

Total net par outstanding
$
386,179

 
$
72,928

 
$
459,107



In addition to amounts shown in the tables above, the Company had outstanding commitments to provide guaranties of $419 million for structured finance and $355 million for public finance obligations at December 31, 2013. The structured finance commitments include the unfunded component of pooled corporate and other transactions. Public finance commitments typically relate to primary and secondary public finance debt issuances. The expiration dates for the public finance commitments range between January 1, 2014 and February 25, 2017, with $231 million expiring prior to December 31, 2014. The commitments are contingent on the satisfaction of all conditions set forth in them and may expire unused or be canceled at the counterparty’s request. Therefore, the total commitment amount does not necessarily reflect actual future guaranteed amounts.
 
Components of BIG Portfolio

Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding
(Insurance and Credit Derivative Form)
As of December 31, 2013
 
BIG Net Par Outstanding
 
Net Par
 
BIG Net Par as
a % of Total Net Par
 
BIG 1
 
BIG 2
 
BIG 3
 
Total BIG
 
Outstanding
 
Outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
(in millions)
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Prime first lien
$
52

 
$
321

 
$
30

 
$
403

 
$
541

 
0.1
%
Alt-A first lien
656

 
1,137

 
935

 
2,728

 
3,590

 
0.6

Option ARM
71

 
60

 
467

 
598

 
937

 
0.1

Subprime
297

 
908

 
740

 
1,945

 
6,130

 
0.4

Second lien U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed end second lien
8

 
20

 
118

 
146

 
244

 
0.0

Home equity lines of credit (“HELOCs”)
1,499

 
20

 
378

 
1,897

 
2,279

 
0.4

Total U.S. RMBS
2,583

 
2,466

 
2,668

 
7,717

 
13,721

 
1.6

Trust preferred securities (“TruPS”)
1,587

 
135

 

 
1,722

 
4,970

 
0.4

Other structured finance
1,367

 
309

 
721

 
2,397

 
54,237

 
0.5

U.S. public finance
8,205

 
440

 
449

 
9,094

 
352,181

 
2.0

Non-U.S. public finance
1,009

 
599

 

 
1,608

 
33,998

 
0.4

Total
$
14,751

 
$
3,949

 
$
3,838

 
$
22,538

 
$
459,107

 
4.9
%

 Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding
(Insurance and Credit Derivative Form)
As of December 31, 2012
 
BIG Net Par Outstanding
 
Net Par
 
BIG Net Par as
a % of Total Net Par
 
BIG 1
 
BIG 2
 
BIG 3
 
Total BIG
 
Outstanding
 
Outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
(in millions)
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Prime first lien
$
28

 
$
436

 
$
11

 
$
475

 
$
641

 
0.1
%
Alt-A first lien
753

 
1,962

 
739

 
3,454

 
4,469

 
0.7

Option ARM
333

 
392

 
317

 
1,042

 
1,450

 
0.2

Subprime (including net interest margin securities)
152

 
988

 
921

 
2,061

 
7,048

 
0.4

Second lien U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed end second lien
97

 
76

 
58

 
231

 
348

 
0.0

HELOCs
644

 

 
1,932

 
2,576

 
3,079

 
0.5

Total U.S. RMBS
2,007

 
3,854

 
3,978

 
9,839

 
17,035

 
1.9

TruPS
1,920

 

 
953

 
2,873

 
5,694

 
0.6

Other structured finance
1,310

 
263

 
1,154

 
2,727

 
70,574

 
0.5

U.S. public finance
3,290

 
500

 
775

 
4,565

 
387,929

 
0.9

Non-U.S. public finance
2,293

 

 

 
2,293

 
37,540

 
0.4

Total
$
10,820

 
$
4,617

 
$
6,860

 
$
22,297

 
$
518,772

 
4.3
%

 
BIG Net Par Outstanding
and Number of Risks
As of December 31, 2013

 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Number of Risks(2)
Description
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
 
(dollars in millions)
BIG:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Category 1
 
$
12,391

 
$
2,360

 
$
14,751

 
185

 
25

 
210

Category 2
 
2,323

 
1,626

 
3,949

 
80

 
21

 
101

Category 3
 
3,031

 
807

 
3,838

 
119

 
27

 
146

Total BIG
 
$
17,745

 
$
4,793

 
$
22,538

 
384

 
73

 
457


 BIG Net Par Outstanding
and Number of Risks
As of December 31, 2012

 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Number of Risks(2)
Description
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
 
(dollars in millions)
BIG:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Category 1
 
$
7,929

 
$
2,891

 
$
10,820

 
163

 
33

 
196

Category 2
 
2,116

 
2,501

 
4,617

 
76

 
27

 
103

Category 3
 
5,543

 
1,317

 
6,860

 
131

 
29

 
160

Total BIG
 
$
15,588

 
$
6,709

 
$
22,297

 
370

 
89

 
459

_____________________
(1)    Includes net par outstanding for FG VIEs.
 
(2)
A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making Debt Service payments.
 
Geographic Distribution of Net Par Outstanding

The Company seeks to maintain a diversified portfolio of insured obligations designed to spread its risk across a number of geographic areas.

Geographic Distribution of
Net Par Outstanding
As of December 31, 2013

 
Number of Risks
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Percent of Total Net Par Outstanding
 
(dollars in millions)
U.S.:
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
California
1,492

 
$
52,704

 
11.5
%
New York
1,035

 
28,582

 
6.2

Pennsylvania
1,059

 
28,475

 
6.2

Texas
1,269

 
27,249

 
5.9

Illinois
881

 
24,138

 
5.3

Florida
422

 
21,773

 
4.7

New Jersey
656

 
14,462

 
3.2

Michigan
713

 
14,250

 
3.1

Georgia
204

 
9,364

 
2.0

Ohio
554

 
8,763

 
1.9

Other states and U.S. territories
4,517

 
122,421

 
26.7

Total U.S. public finance
12,802

 
352,181

 
76.7

U.S. Structured finance (multiple states)
963

 
58,907

 
12.8

Total U.S.
13,765

 
411,088

 
89.5

Non-U.S.:
 
 
 
 
 
United Kingdom
115

 
21,405

 
4.7

Australia
29

 
5,598

 
1.2

Canada
10

 
3,851

 
0.8

France
21

 
3,614

 
0.8

Italy
10

 
1,808

 
0.4

Other
100

 
11,743

 
2.6

Total non-U.S.
285

 
48,019

 
10.5

Total
14,050

 
$
459,107

 
100.0
%



Direct Economic Exposure to the Selected European Countries

Several European countries continue to experience significant economic, fiscal and/or political strains such that the likelihood of default on obligations with a nexus to those countries may be higher than the Company anticipated when such factors did not exist. The European countries where it believes heightened uncertainties exist are: Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain (the “Selected European Countries”). The Company is closely monitoring its exposures in Selected European Countries where it believes heightened uncertainties exist. Published reports have identified countries that may be experiencing reduced demand for their sovereign debt in the current environment. The Company selected these European countries based on these reports and its view that their credit fundamentals are deteriorating. The Company’s economic exposure to the Selected European Countries (based on par for financial guaranty contracts and notional amount for financial guaranty contracts accounted for as derivatives) is shown in the following table, net of ceded reinsurance.

Net Direct Economic Exposure to Selected European Countries(1)
As of December 31, 2013

 
Hungary (2)
 
Ireland
 
Italy
 
Portugal (2)
 
Spain (2)
 
Total
 
(in millions)
Sovereign and sub-sovereign exposure:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Non-infrastructure public finance
$

 
$

 
$
1,024

 
$
98

 
$
275

 
$
1,397

Infrastructure finance
384

 

 
18

 
12

 
155

 
569

Sub-total
384

 

 
1,042

 
110

 
430

 
1,966

Non-sovereign exposure:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Regulated utilities

 

 
234

 

 

 
234

RMBS
224

 
144

 
315

 

 

 
683

Sub-total
224

 
144

 
549

 

 

 
917

Total
$
608

 
$
144

 
$
1,591

 
$
110

 
$
430

 
$
2,883

Total BIG
$
608

 
$

 
$

 
$
110

 
$
430

 
$
1,148

 ____________________
(1)
While the Company’s exposures are shown in U.S. dollars, the obligations the Company insures are in various currencies, including U.S. dollars, Euros and British pounds sterling. Included in the table above is $144 million of reinsurance assumed on a 2004 - 2006 pool of Irish residential mortgages that is part of the Company’s remaining legacy mortgage reinsurance business. One of the residential mortgage-backed securities included in the table above includes residential mortgages in both Italy and Germany, and only the portion of the transaction equal to the portion of the original mortgage pool in Italian mortgages is shown in the table.

 (2)
See Note 6, Expected Loss to be Paid.
 
When the Company directly insures an obligation, it assigns the obligation to a geographic location or locations based on its view of the geographic location of the risk. For direct exposure this can be a relatively straight-forward determination as, for example, a debt issue supported by availability payments for a toll road in a particular country. The Company may also assign portions of a risk to more than one geographic location. The Company may also have direct exposures to the Selected European Countries in business assumed from unaffiliated monoline insurance companies. In the case of assumed business for direct exposures, the Company depends upon geographic information provided by the primary insurer.

The Company has excluded in the exposure tables above its indirect economic exposure to the Selected European Countries through policies it provides on (a) pooled corporate and (b) commercial receivables transactions. The Company considers economic exposure to a selected European Country to be indirect when the exposure relates to only a small portion of an insured transaction that otherwise is not related to a Selected European Country. The Company has reviewed transactions through which it believes it may have indirect exposure to the Selected European Countries that is material to the transaction and calculated total net indirect exposure to Selected European Counties in non-sovereign pooled corporate and non-sovereign commercial receivables to be $781 million and $86 million, respectively, based on the proportion of the insured par equal to the proportion of obligors identified as being domiciled in a Selected European Country.

The Company no longer guarantees any sovereign bonds of the Selected European Countries. The exposure shown in the “Non-infrastructure public finance” category is from transactions backed by receivable payments from sub-sovereigns in Italy, Spain and Portugal. Sub-sovereign debt is debt issued by a governmental entity or government backed entity, or supported by such an entity, that is other than direct sovereign debt of the ultimate governing body of the country. In 2012, the Company paid claims under its guarantees of €218 million in net exposure to the sovereign debt of Greece, paying off in full its liabilities with respect to the Greek sovereign bonds.

Exposure to Puerto Rico
         
The Company insures general obligation bonds of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations aggregating $5.4 billion net par. The Company rates $5.2 billion net par of that amount BIG.
    
The following table shows estimated amortization of the general obligation bonds of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations insured and rated BIG by the Company. The Company guarantees payments of interest and principal when those amounts are scheduled to be paid and cannot be required to pay on an accelerated basis. The column labeled “Estimated BIG Net Debt Service Amortization” shows the total amount of principal and interest due in the period indicated and represents the maximum net amount the Company would be required to pay on BIG Puerto Rico exposures in a given period assuming the obligors paid nothing on all of those obligations in that period.
Amortization Schedule of BIG Net Par Outstanding
and BIG Net Debt Service Outstanding of Puerto Rico
As of December 31, 2013

 
 
Estimated BIG Net Par Amortization
 
Estimated BIG Net Debt Service Amortization
 
 
(in millions)
2014
 
$
242

 
$
501

2015
 
364

 
608

2016
 
289

 
515

2017
 
208

 
421

2018
 
160

 
363

2019-2023
 
921

 
1,780

2024-2028
 
979

 
1,622

2029-2033
 
706

 
1,141

After 2033
 
1,302

 
1,596

Total
 
$
5,171

 
$
8,547


Recent announcements and actions by the Governor and his administration indicate officials of the Commonwealth are focused on measures to help Puerto Rico operate within its financial resources and maintain its access to the capital markets. All Puerto Rico credits insured by the Company are current on their debt service payments, and we expect them to continue to make their debt service payments. Neither Puerto Rico nor its related authorities and public corporations are eligible debtors under Chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. However, Puerto Rico faces high debt levels, a declining population and an economy that has been in recession since 2006. Puerto Rico has been operating with a structural budget deficit in recent years, and its two largest pension funds are significantly underfunded.

In January 2014 the Company downgraded most of its insured Puerto Rico credits to BIG, reflecting the economic and financial challenges facing the Commonwealth and due to concerns that the rating agencies would downgrade Puerto Rico and limit its access to credit. Subsequently, in February 2014, S&P, Moody's and Fitch Ratings downgraded much of the debt of Puerto Rico and its related authorities and public corporations to BIG, citing various factors including limited liquidity and market access risk.