XML 57 R28.htm IDEA: XBRL DOCUMENT v2.3.0.15
Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts (Tables)
9 Months Ended
Sep. 30, 2011
Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts 
Net Earned Premiums

 

Third Quarter

 

Nine Months

 

 

 

2011

 

2010

 

2011

 

2010

 

 

 

(in millions)

 

Scheduled net earned premiums

 

$

178.1

 

$

256.4

 

$

595.7

 

$

814.7

 

Acceleration of premium earnings(1)

 

26.8

 

21.2

 

77.4

 

52.0

 

Accretion of discount on net premiums receivable

 

5.8

 

10.5

 

20.6

 

31.8

 

Total financial guaranty

 

210.7

 

288.1

 

693.7

 

898.5

 

Other

 

0.4

 

0.6

 

1.4

 

1.9

 

Total net earned premiums(2)

 

$

211.1

 

$

288.7

 

$

695.1

 

$

900.4

 

 

(1)                                Reflects the unscheduled refundings of underlying insured obligations.

 

(2)                                Excludes $19.4 million and $12.8 million in Third Quarter 2011 and 2010, respectively, and $56.8 million and $34.4 million for the Nine Months 2011 and 2010, respectively, in net earned premium related to consolidated FG VIEs.

Gross Premium Receivable, Net of Ceding Commissions Roll Forward

 

Nine Months

 

 

 

2011

 

2010

 

 

 

(in millions)

 

Balance beginning of period, January 1

 

$

1,167.6

 

$

1,418.2

 

Change in accounting (1)

 

 

(19.0

)

Balance beginning of the period, adjusted

 

1,167.6

 

1,399.2

 

Premium written, net (2)

 

153.2

 

253.9

 

Premium payments received, net

 

(227.8

)

(356.3

)

Adjustments to the premium receivable:

 

 

 

 

 

Changes in the expected term of financial guaranty insurance contracts

 

(117.1

)

13.2

 

Accretion of discount

 

22.8

 

35.1

 

Foreign exchange translation

 

(3.1

)

(24.2

)

Other adjustments

 

(8.5

)

1.6

 

Balance, September 30

 

$

987.1

 

$

1,322.5

 

 

(1)        Represents elimination of premium receivable at January 1, 2010 related to consolidated FG VIEs upon the adoption of the new accounting guidance.

 

(2)        Includes $14.9 million of premium written related to financial guaranty insurance contracts which replaced existing credit derivative contracts in Nine Months 2011.

Expected Collections of Gross Premiums Receivable, Net of Ceding Commissions

 

 

September 30, 2011(1)

 

 

 

(in millions)

 

Gross premium collections expected:

 

 

 

2011 (October 1 - December 31)

 

$

75.5

 

2012

 

119.0

 

2013

 

101.3

 

2014

 

89.2

 

2015

 

78.8

 

2016 - 2020

 

306.8

 

2021 - 2025

 

212.2

 

2026 - 2030

 

154.2

 

After 2030

 

204.7

 

Total gross expected collections

 

$

1,341.7

 

FG VIEs

 

35.0

 

Total

 

$

1,376.7

 

 

(1)                                Represents undiscounted amounts expected to be collected.

Unearned Premium Reserve

 

 

 

As of September 30, 2011

 

As of December 31, 2010

 

 

 

Gross

 

Ceded

 

Net(1)

 

Gross

 

Ceded

 

Net(1)

 

 

 

(in millions)

 

Deferred premium revenue

 

$

6,202.2

 

$

764.5

 

$

5,437.7

 

$

7,108.6

 

$

846.6

 

$

6,262.0

 

Contra-paid

 

(99.4

)

(17.3

)

(82.1

)

(146.1

)

(24.8

)

(121.3

)

Total financial guaranty

 

6,102.8

 

747.2

 

5,355.6

 

6,962.5

 

821.8

 

6,140.7

 

Other

 

9.0

 

0.3

 

8.7

 

10.4

 

 

10.4

 

Total

 

$

6,111.8

 

$

747.5

 

$

5,364.3

 

$

6,972.9

 

$

821.8

 

$

6,151.1

 

 

(1)                                Total net unearned premium reserve excludes $311.5 million and $193.2 million related to FG VIE’s as of September 30, 2011 and December 31, 2010, respectively.

Expected Timing of Financial Guaranty Insurance Premium and Loss Recognition

 

 

As of September 30, 2011

 

 

 

Scheduled
Net Earned
Premium

 

Net Expected
Loss to be
Expensed(1)

 

Net

 

 

 

(in millions)

 

2011 (October 1 - December 31)

 

$

167.2

 

$

40.7

 

$

126.5

 

2012

 

579.8

 

108.5

 

471.3

 

2013

 

483.0

 

65.7

 

417.3

 

2014

 

425.4

 

49.5

 

375.9

 

2015

 

376.0

 

38.0

 

338.0

 

2016 - 2020

 

1,406.1

 

144.7

 

1,261.4

 

2021 - 2025

 

882.4

 

70.2

 

812.2

 

2026 - 2030

 

538.3

 

39.2

 

499.1

 

After 2030

 

579.5

 

27.0

 

552.5

 

Total present value basis(2)(3)

 

5,437.7

 

583.5

 

4,854.2

 

Discount

 

308.9

 

353.8

 

(44.9

)

Total future value

 

$

5,746.6

 

$

937.3

 

$

4,809.3

 

 

(1)                                These amounts reflect the Company’s estimate as of September 30, 2011 of expected losses to be expensed and are not included in loss and LAE reserve because loss and LAE is only recorded for the amount by which net expected loss to be expensed exceeds deferred premium revenue, determined on a contract-by-contract basis.

 

(2)                                Balances represent discounted amounts.

 

(3)                                Consolidation of FG VIEs resulted in reductions of $423.7 million in future scheduled amortization of deferred premium revenue and $240.0 million in net present value of expected loss to be expensed.

Selected Information for Policies Paid in Installments

 

 

 

As of
September 30, 2011

 

As of
December 31, 2010

 

 

 

(dollars in millions)

 

Premiums receivable, net of ceding commission payable

 

$

987.1

 

$

1,167.6

 

Gross deferred premium revenue

 

2,272.5

 

2,933.6

 

Weighted average risk-free rate used to discount premiums

 

3.6

%

3.5

%

Weighted average period of premiums receivable (in years)

 

10.0

 

10.1

Financial Guaranty Insurance Present Value of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be paid Roll Forward by Sector

 

Net Expected Loss
to be Paid as of
June 30, 2011

 

Economic Loss
Development(2)

 

(Paid)
Recovered
Losses

 

Net Expected Loss
to be Paid as of
September 30, 2011

 

 

 

(in millions)

 

U.S. RMBS:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First lien:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prime first lien

 

$

3.2

 

$

(0.8

)

$

 

$

2.4

 

Alt-A first lien

 

167.6

 

(3.1

)

(16.6

)

147.9

 

Option ARM

 

266.9

 

50.4

 

(74.5

)

242.8

 

Subprime

 

161.5

 

36.3

 

(0.8

)

197.0

 

Total first lien

 

599.2

 

82.8

 

(91.9

)

590.1

 

Second lien:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closed-end second lien

 

(94.7

)

47.2

 

(1.5

)

(49.0

)

HELOCs

 

(38.3

)

(7.8

)

(23.9

)

(70.0

)

Total second lien

 

(133.0

)

39.4

 

(25.4

)

(119.0

)

Total U.S. RMBS

 

466.2

 

122.2

 

(117.3

)

471.1

 

Other structured finance

 

180.6

 

83.7

 

(4.7

)

259.6

 

Public finance

 

66.2

 

6.7

 

(30.2

)

42.7

 

Total

 

$

713.0

 

$

212.6

 

$

(152.2

)

$

773.4

 

 

 

 

Net Expected Loss
to be Paid as of
June 30, 2010

 

Economic Loss
Development(2)

 

(Paid)
Recovered
Losses

 

Net Expected Loss
to be Paid as of
September 30, 2010

 

 

 

(in millions)

 

 

 

(restated)

 

(restated)

 

 

 

(restated)

 

U.S. RMBS:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First lien:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prime first lien

 

$

0.4

 

$

0.5

 

$

 

$

0.9

 

Alt-A first lien

 

190.8

 

8.7

 

(14.1

)

185.4

 

Option ARM

 

571.2

 

27.7

 

(54.3

)

544.6

 

Subprime

 

144.5

 

7.1

 

(0.7

)

150.9

 

Total first lien

 

906.9

 

44.0

 

(69.1

)

881.8

 

Second lien:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closed-end second lien

 

119.0

 

5.1

 

(20.1

)

104.0

 

HELOCs

 

(493.7

)

(1.8

)

(129.5

)

(625.0

)

Total second lien

 

(374.7

)

3.3

 

(149.6

)

(521.0

)

Total U.S. RMBS

 

532.2

 

47.3

 

(218.7

)

360.8

 

Other structured finance

 

146.1

 

18.2

 

(1.9

)

162.4

 

Public finance

 

88.6

 

0.4

 

(22.9

)

66.1

 

Total

 

$

766.9

 

$

65.9

 

$

(243.5

)

$

589.3

 

 

 

 

Net Expected Loss
to be Paid as of
December 31, 2010

 

Economic Loss
Development(2)

 

(Paid)
Recovered
Losses

 

Net Expected Loss
to be Paid as of
September 30, 2011

 

 

 

(in millions)

 

 

 

(restated)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. RMBS:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First lien:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prime first lien

 

$

1.4

 

$

1.0

 

$

 

$

2.4

 

Alt-A first lien

 

184.4

 

18.7

 

(55.2

)

147.9

 

Option ARM

 

523.7

 

(38.0

)

(242.9

)

242.8

 

Subprime

 

200.4

 

13.1

 

(16.5

)

197.0

 

Total first lien

 

909.9

 

(5.2

)

(314.6

)

590.1

 

Second lien:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closed-end second lien

 

56.6

 

(62.4

)

(43.2

)

(49.0

)

HELOCs

 

(805.7

)

96.9

 

638.8

 

(70.0

)

Total second lien

 

(749.1

)

34.5

 

595.6

 

(119.0

)

Total U.S. RMBS

 

160.8

 

29.3

 

281.0

 

471.1

 

Other structured finance

 

159.1

 

108.2

 

(7.7

)

259.6

 

Public finance

 

88.9

 

(6.8

)

(39.4

)

42.7

 

Total

 

$

408.8

 

$

130.7

 

$

233.9

 

$

773.4

 

 

 

 

Net Expected Loss
to be Paid as of
December 31, 2009

 

Economic Loss
Development(2)

 

(Paid)
Recovered
Losses

 

Net Expected Loss
to be Paid as of
September 30, 2010

 

 

 

(in millions)

 

 

 

(restated)

 

(restated)

 

 

 

(restated)

 

U.S. RMBS:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First lien:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prime first lien

 

$

 

$

0.9

 

$

 

$

0.9

 

Alt-A first lien

 

204.4

 

24.1

 

(43.1

)

185.4

 

Option ARM

 

545.2

 

102.8

 

(103.4

)

544.6

 

Subprime

 

77.5

 

76.4

 

(3.0

)

150.9

 

Total first lien

 

827.1

 

204.2

 

(149.5

)

881.8

 

Second lien:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closed-end second lien

 

199.3

 

(35.3

)

(60.0

)

104.0

 

HELOCs

 

(206.6

)

26.9

 

(445.3

)

(625.0

)

Total second lien

 

(7.3

)

(8.4

)

(505.3

)

(521.0

)

Total U.S. RMBS

 

819.8

 

195.8

 

(654.8

)

360.8

 

Other structured finance

 

115.7

 

54.2

 

(7.5

)

162.4

 

Public finance

 

130.9

 

(7.7

)

(57.1

)

66.1

 

Total

 

$

1,066.4

 

$

242.3

 

$

(719.4

)

$

589.3

 

 

(1)                                Amounts include all expected payments whether or not the insured transaction VIE is consolidated. Amounts exclude reserves for mortgage business of $1.9 million as of September 30, 2011 and $2.1 million as of June 30, 2011 and December 31, 2010.

 

(2)                                Economic loss development includes the effects of changes in assumptions based on observed market trends, changes in discount rates, accretion of discount and the economic effects of loss mitigation efforts.

Reconciliation of Present Value of Net Expected Loss to be Paid and Present Value of Net Expected Loss to be Expensed

 

 

As of September 30,

 

 

 

2011

 

2010

 

 

 

(in millions)

                                (restated)

 

Net expected loss to be paid

 

$

773.4

 

$

589.3

 

Less: net expected loss to be paid for FG VIEs

 

(34.2

)

(30.5

)

Total

 

807.6

 

619.8

 

Contra-paid, net

 

82.1

 

183.5

 

Salvage and subrogation recoverable, net(1)

 

314.6

 

727.6

 

Loss and LAE reserve, net(2)

 

(620.8

)

(457.9

)

Net expected loss to be expensed(3)

 

$

583.5

 

$

1,073.0

 

 

(1)                                September 30, 2011 amount consists of gross salvage and subrogation amounts of $360.2 million net of ceded amounts of $45.6 million which is recorded in reinsurance balances payable. The September 30, 2010 amount consists of gross salvage and subrogation amounts of $824.8 million net of ceded amounts of $97.2 million which is recorded in reinsurance balances payable.

 

(2)                                Represents loss and LAE reserves, net of reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses, excluding $1.9 million and $2.1 million in reserves for other runoff lines of business as of September 30, 2011 and December 31, 2010, respectively.

 

(3)                                Excludes $240.0 million and $110.0 million as of September 30, 2011 and 2010, respectively, related to consolidated FG VIEs.

Assumptions in Base Case Expected Loss Estimates Second Lien RMBS

 

HELOC Key Variables

 

As of
September 30, 2011

 

As of
June 30, 2011

 

As of
March 31, 2011

 

As of
December 31, 2010

 

Plateau conditional default rate

 

3.8 - 35.3%

 

4.6 - 34.6%

 

4.7 - 21.4%

 

4.2 - 22.1%

 

Final conditional default rate trended down to

 

0.4 - 3.2%

 

0.4 - 3.2%

 

0.4 - 3.2%

 

0.4 - 3.2%

 

Expected period until final conditional default rate

 

36 months

 

36 months

 

36 months

 

24 months

 

Initial conditional prepayment rate

 

3.2 - 16.4%

 

0.9 - 15.5%

 

0.9 - 12.6%

 

3.3 - 17.5%

 

Final conditional prepayment rate

 

10%

 

10%

 

10%

 

10%

 

Loss severity

 

98%

 

98%

 

98%

 

98%

 

Initial draw rate

 

0.0 -5.4%

 

0.0 - 8.6%

 

0.0 - 5.2%

 

0.0 - 6.8%

 

 

Closed-End Second Lien Key Variables

 

As of
September 30, 2011

 

As of
June 30, 2011

 

As of
March 31, 2011

 

As of
December 31, 2010

 

Plateau conditional default rate

 

5.8 - 21.7%

 

4.8 - 22.8%

 

7.2 - 28.9%

 

7.3 - 27.1%

 

Final conditional default rate trended down to

 

2.9 - 8.1%

 

2.9 - 8.1%

 

2.9 - 8.1%

 

2.9 - 8.1%

 

Expected period until final conditional default rate achieved

 

36 months

 

36 months

 

36 months

 

24 months

 

Initial conditional prepayment rate

 

0.3 - 11.7%

 

1.4 - 12.0%

 

0.9 - 12.7%

 

1.3 - 9.7%

 

Final conditional prepayment rate

 

10%

 

10%

 

10%

 

10%

 

Loss severity

 

98%

 

98%

 

98%

 

98%

 

 

(1)                                 Represents assumptions for most heavily weighted scenario (the “base case”).

First Lien Liquidation Rates

 

 

 

As of
September 30,
2011

 

As of
June 30,
2011

 

As of
March 31,
2011

 

As of
December 31,
2010

 

30 - 59 Days Delinquent

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Alt-A first lien, Option ARM and Prime

 

50

%

50

%

50

%

50

%

Subprime

 

45

 

45

 

45

 

45

 

60 - 89 Days Delinquent

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Alt-A first lien, Option ARM and Prime

 

65

 

65

 

65

 

65

 

Subprime

 

65

 

65

 

65

 

65

 

90 - Bankruptcy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Alt-A first lien, Option ARM and Prime

 

75

 

75

 

75

 

75

 

Subprime

 

70

 

70

 

70

 

70

 

Foreclosure

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Alt-A first lien, Option ARM and Prime

 

85

 

85

 

85

 

85

 

Subprime

 

85

 

85

 

85

 

85

 

Real Estate Owned

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Alt-A first lien, Option ARM and Prime

 

100

 

100

 

100

 

100

 

Subprime

 

100

 

100

 

100

 

100

Key Assumptions in Base Case Expected Loss Estimates of First Lien RMBS Transactions

 

 

 

As of
September 30,
2011

 

As of
June 30,
2011

 

As of
March 31,
2011

 

As of
December 31,
2010

 

Alt-A First Lien

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plateau conditional default rate

 

2.9 - 40.5%

 

2.9 - 36.6%

 

2.7 - 40.2%

 

2.6 - 42.2%

 

Intermediate conditional default rate

 

0.4 - 6.1%

 

0.4 - 5.5%

 

0.4 - 6.0%

 

0.4 - 6.3%

 

Final conditional default rate

 

0.1 - 2.0%

 

0.1 - 1.8%

 

0.1 - 2.0%

 

0.1 - 2.1%

 

Initial loss severity

 

65%

 

65%

 

65%

 

60%

 

Initial conditional prepayment rate

 

0.0 - 17.0%

 

0.0 - 28.3%

 

0.4 - 40.5%

 

0.0 - 36.5%

 

Final conditional prepayment rate

 

10%

 

10%

 

10%

 

10%

 

Option ARM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plateau conditional default rate

 

12.7 - 32.2%

 

13.1 - 32.1%

 

12.3 - 33.2%

 

11.7 - 32.7%

 

Intermediate conditional default rate

 

1.9 - 4.8%

 

2.0 - 4.8%

 

1.8 - 5.0%

 

1.8 - 4.9%

 

Final conditional default rate

 

0.6 - 1.6%

 

0.7 - 1.6%

 

0.6 - 1.7%

 

0.6 - 1.6%

 

Initial loss severity

 

65%

 

65%

 

65%

 

60%

 

Initial conditional prepayment rate

 

0.1 - 4.2%

 

0.0 - 7.2%

 

0.0 - 24.5%

 

0.0 - 17.7%

 

Final conditional prepayment rate

 

10%

 

10%

 

10%

 

10%

 

Subprime

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plateau conditional default rate

 

8.6 - 33.4%

 

7.7 - 34.2%

 

8.0 - 34.3%

 

9.0 - 34.6%

 

Intermediate conditional default rate

 

1.3 - 5.0%

 

1.2 - 5.1%

 

1.2 - 5.1%

 

1.3 - 5.2%

 

Final conditional default rate

 

0.4 - 1.7%

 

0.4 - 1.7%

 

0.4 - 1.7%

 

0.4 - 1.7%

 

Initial loss severity

 

80%

 

80%

 

80%

 

80%

 

Initial conditional prepayment rate

 

0.0 - 16.8%

 

0.0 - 9.3%

 

0.0 - 13.3%

 

0.0 - 13.5%

 

Final conditional prepayment rate

 

10%

 

10%

 

10%

 

10%

Balance Sheet Classification of R&W benefits

 

 

 

As of September 30, 2011

 

As of December 31, 2010

 

 

 

For all
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance
Contracts

 

Effect of
Consolidating
FG VIEs

 

Reported on
Balance Sheet

 

For all
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance
Contracts

 

Effect of
Consolidating
FG VIEs

 

Reported on
Balance Sheet

 

 

 

(in millions)

 

Salvage and subrogation recoverable

 

$

386.3

 

$

(200.9

)

$

185.4

 

$

866.2

 

$

(52.9

)

$

813.3

 

Loss and LAE reserve

 

978.1

 

(89.6

)

888.5

 

490.6

 

(85.8

)

404.8

 

Unearned premium reserve

 

186.6

 

(43.7

)

142.9

 

243.7

 

(22.5

)

221.2

 

Total

 

$

1,551.0

 

$

(334.2

)

$

1,216.8

 

$

1,600.5

 

$

(161.2

)

$

1,439.3

Rollforward of Estimated Benefit from Recoveries of Representation and Warranty Breaches, Net of Reinsurance

 

Future Net
R&W
Benefit at
December 31, 2010

 

R&W Development
and Accretion of
Discount During
Nine Months 2011

 

R&W Recovered
During
Nine Months 2011(1)

 

Future Net
R&W Benefit at
September 30, 2011(2)

 

 

 

(in millions)

 

Prime first lien

 

$

1.1

 

$

1.9

 

$

 

$

3.0

 

Alt-A first lien

 

81.0

 

111.7

 

 

192.7

 

Option ARM

 

309.3

 

530.9

 

(67.5

)

772.7

 

Subprime

 

26.8

 

80.9

 

 

107.7

 

Closed-end second lien

 

178.2

 

37.6

 

(9.0

)

206.8

 

HELOC

 

1,004.1

 

167.0

 

(903.0

)

268.1

 

Total

 

$

1,600.5

 

$

930.0

 

$

(979.5

)

$

1,551.0

 

 

 

 

Future Net
R&W
Benefit at
December 31, 2009

 

R&W Development
and Accretion of
Discount During
Nine Months 2010

 

R&W Recovered
During
Nine Months 2010(1)

 

Future Net
R&W
Benefit at
September 30, 2010

 

 

 

(in millions)

 

Prime first lien

 

$

 

$

1.0

 

$

 

$

1.0

 

Alt-A first lien

 

64.2

 

19.8

 

 

84.0

 

Option ARM

 

203.7

 

86.8

 

(42.5

)

248.0

 

Subprime

 

 

 

 

 

Closed-end second lien

 

76.5

 

59.5

 

 

136.0

 

HELOC

 

828.7

 

98.1

 

(88.9

)

837.9

 

Total

 

$

1,173.1

 

$

265.2

 

$

(131.4

)

$

1,306.9

 

 

(1)                                 Gross amounts recovered are $1,107.8 million and $154.4 million for Nine Months 2011 and 2010, respectively.

 

(2)                                 Includes R&W benefit of $649.8 million attributable to transactions covered by the Bank of America Agreement.

Financial Guaranty Insurance U.S. RMBS Risks with R&W Benefit

 

Number of Risks(1) as of

 

Debt Service as of

 

 

 

September 30, 2011

 

December 31, 2010

 

September 30, 2011

 

December 31, 2010

 

 

 

(dollars in millions)

 

Prime first lien

 

1

 

1

 

$

54.0

 

$

57.1

 

Alt-A first lien

 

20

 

17

 

1,778.4

 

1,882.8

 

Option ARM

 

11

 

10

 

1,768.0

 

1,909.8

 

Subprime

 

5

 

1

 

1,071.7

 

228.7

 

Closed-end second lien

 

4

 

4

 

378.7

 

444.9

 

HELOC

 

15

 

13

 

3,522.0

 

2,969.8

 

Total

 

56

 

46

 

$

8,572.8

 

$

7,493.1

 

 

(1)                                 A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments.

Breakdown of the development and accretion amount in the roll forward of estimated recoveries associated with alleged breaches of R&W

 

 

 

Third Quarter

 

Nine Months

 

 

 

2011

 

2010

 

2011

 

2010

 

 

 

(in millions)

 

Inclusion of new deals with breaches of R&W during period

 

$

1.1

 

$

 

$

108.2

 

$

62.4

 

Change in recovery assumptions as the result of additional file review and recovery success

 

43.3

 

(3.4

)

241.7

 

61.9

 

Estimated increase(decrease) in defaults that will result in additional (lower) breaches

 

(22.6

)

50.1

 

11.4

 

132.2

 

Results of Bank of America Agreement

 

129.8

 

 

559.5

 

 

Accretion of discount on balance

 

7.5

 

6.6

 

9.2

 

8.7

 

Total

 

$

159.1

 

$

53.3

 

$

930.0

 

$

265.2

Loss and LAE Reserve, Net of Reinsurance and Salvage and Subrogation Recoverable

 

As of September 30, 2011

 

As of December 31, 2010

 

 

 

Loss and
LAE
Reserve(1)

 

Salvage and
Subrogation
Recoverable(2)

 

Net

 

Loss and
LAE
Reserve(1)

 

Salvage and
Subrogation
Recoverable(2)

 

Net

 

 

 

(in millions)

 

U.S. RMBS:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First lien:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prime first lien

 

$

1.8

 

$

 

$

1.8

 

$

1.2

 

$

 

1.2

 

Alt-A first lien

 

70.9

 

47.7

 

23.2

 

39.2

 

2.6

 

36.6

 

Option ARM

 

167.0

 

121.1

 

45.9

 

223.3

 

63.0

 

160.3

 

Subprime

 

101.5

 

 

101.5

 

108.3

 

0.1

 

108.2

 

Total first lien

 

341.2

 

168.8

 

172.4

 

372.0

 

65.7

 

306.3

 

Second lien:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closed-end second lien

 

9.3

 

114.1

 

(104.8

)

7.7

 

50.3

 

(42.6

)

HELOC

 

49.5

 

198.4

 

(148.9

)

7.1

 

843.4

 

(836.3

)

Total second lien

 

58.8

 

312.5

 

(253.7

)

14.8

 

893.7

 

(878.9

)

Total U.S. RMBS

 

400.0

 

481.3

 

(81.3

)

386.8

 

959.4

 

(572.6

)

Other structured finance

 

239.1

 

5.8

 

233.3

 

131.1

 

1.4

 

129.7

 

Public finance

 

56.5

 

64.3

 

(7.8

)

81.6

 

34.4

 

47.2

 

Total financial guaranty

 

695.6

 

551.4

 

144.2

 

599.5

 

995.2

 

(395.7

)

Other

 

1.9

 

 

1.9

 

2.1

 

 

2.1

 

Subtotal

 

697.5

 

551.4

 

146.1

 

601.6

 

995.2

 

(393.6

)

Effect of consolidating FG VIEs

 

(74.8

)

(236.8

)

162.0

 

(49.5

)

(92.2

)

42.7

 

Total

 

$

622.7

 

$

314.6

 

$

308.1

 

$

552.1

 

$

903.0

 

$

(350.9

)

 

(1)                                 The September 30, 2011 loss and LAE consists of $670.7 million loss and LAE reserve net of $48.0 million of reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses. The December 31, 2010 loss and LAE consists of $574.4 million loss and LAE reserve net of $22.3 million of reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses.

 

(2)                                 Salvage and subrogation recoverable is net of $45.6 million and $129.4 million in ceded salvage and subrogation recorded in “reinsurance balances payable” at September 30, 2011 and December 31, 2010, respectively. The decrease from December 31, 2010 to September 30, 2011, primarily represents cash collected under the Bank of America Agreement.

Loss and LAE Reported on the Consolidated Statements of Operations

 

 

 

Third Quarter

 

Nine Months

 

 

 

2011

 

2010

 

2011

 

2010

 

 

 

(in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

(restated)

 

 

 

(restated)

 

Financial Guaranty:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. RMBS:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First lien:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prime first lien

 

$

(0.4

)

$

0.5

 

$

0.7

 

$

0.5

 

Alt-A first lien

 

25.2

 

8.8

 

52.6

 

22.3

 

Option ARM

 

92.4

 

65.3

 

133.7

 

166.3

 

Subprime

 

15.7

 

9.9

 

10.6

 

50.9

 

Total first lien

 

132.9

 

84.5

 

197.6

 

240.0

 

Second lien:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closed-end second lien

 

22.6

 

4.8

 

7.0

 

(2.3

)

HELOC

 

18.5

 

17.2

 

115.7

 

52.0

 

Total second lien

 

41.1

 

22.0

 

122.7

 

49.7

 

Total U.S. RMBS

 

174.0

 

106.5

 

320.3

 

289.7

 

Other structured finance

 

83.8

 

15.0

 

115.2

 

51.6

 

Public finance

 

(5.2

)

(0.6

)

(16.9

)

10.3

 

Total financial guaranty

 

252.6

 

120.9

 

418.6

 

351.6

 

Other

 

0.2

 

0.1

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

Subtotal

 

252.8

 

121.0

 

418.8

 

351.8

 

Effect of consolidating FG VIEs

 

(37.9

)

(10.2

)

(105.5

)

(44.4

)

Total loss and LAE (recoveries)

 

$

214.9

 

$

110.8

 

$

313.3

 

$

307.4

Net Losses Paid on Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts

 

Third Quarter

 

Nine Months

 

 

 

2011

 

2010

 

2011

 

2010

 

 

 

(in millions)

 

Financial Guaranty:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. RMBS:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First lien:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prime first lien

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

Alt-A first lien

 

16.6

 

14.1

 

55.2

 

43.1

 

Option ARM

 

74.5

 

54.3

 

242.9

 

103.4

 

Subprime

 

0.8

 

0.7

 

16.5

 

3.0

 

Total first lien

 

91.9

 

69.1

 

314.6

 

149.5

 

Second lien:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closed-end second lien

 

1.5

 

20.1

 

43.2

 

60.0

 

HELOC

 

23.9

 

129.5

 

(638.8

)

445.3

 

Total second lien

 

25.4

 

149.6

 

(595.6

)

505.3

 

Total U.S. RMBS

 

117.3

 

218.7

 

(281.0

)

654.8

 

Other structured finance

 

4.7

 

1.9

 

7.7

 

7.5

 

Public finance

 

30.2

 

22.9

 

39.4

 

57.1

 

Total financial guaranty

 

152.2

 

243.5

 

(233.9

)

719.4

 

Other

 

 

0.2

 

 

0.2

 

Subtotal

 

152.2

 

243.7

 

(233.9

)

719.6

 

Effect of consolidating FG VIEs

 

(47.5

)

(37.0

)

(59.7

)

(95.9

)

Total

 

$

104.7

 

$

206.7

 

$

(293.6

)

$

623.7

 

 

(1)                                 Includes the effect of loss mitigation efforts and cessions not yet settled.

Financial Guaranty Insurance BIG Transaction Loss Summary

 

 

 

BIG Categories

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

Effect of

 

 

 

 

 

BIG 1

 

BIG 2

 

BIG 3

 

BIG,

 

Consolidating

 

 

 

 

 

Gross

 

Ceded

 

Gross

 

Ceded

 

Gross

 

Ceded

 

Net(1)

 

VIEs

 

Total

 

 

 

(dollars in millions)

 

Number of risks(2)

 

165

 

(62

)

72

 

(26

)

127

 

(50

)

364

 

 

364

 

Remaining weighted average contract period (in years)

 

11.9

 

14.6

 

9.7

 

6.6

 

8.7

 

6.0

 

10.1

 

 

10.1

 

Net outstanding exposure:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Principal

 

$

7,451.1

 

$

(760.5

)

$

5,417.4

 

$

(226.3

)

$

7,844.2

 

$

(651.7

)

$

19,074.2

 

$

 

$

19,074.2

 

Interest

 

4,269.4

 

(561.3

)

2,804.2

 

(74.9

)

2,280.8

 

(171.3

)

8,546.9

 

 

8,546.9

 

Total

 

$

11,720.5

 

$

(1,321.8

)

$

8,221.6

 

$

(301.2

)

$

10,125.0

 

$

(823.0

)

$

27,621.1

 

$

 

$

27,621.1

 

Expected cash outflows (inflows)

 

$

456.7

 

$

(89.1

)

$

1,775.8

 

$

(114.1

)

$

2,208.9

 

$

(137.8

)

$

4,100.4

 

$

(591.2

)

$

3,509.2

 

Potential recoveries(3)

 

(616.3

)

114.0

 

(811.4

)

29.4

 

(1,759.6

)

96.9

 

(2,947.0

)

599.2

 

(2,347.8

)

Subtotal

 

(159.6

)

24.9

 

964.4

 

(84.7

)

449.3

 

(40.9

)

1,153.4

 

8.0

 

1,161.4

 

Discount

 

47.2

 

(2.9

)

(345.5

)

35.4

 

(110.4

)

(3.8

)

(380.0

)

26.2

 

(353.8

)

Present value of expected cash flows

 

$

(112.4

)

$

22.0

 

$

618.9

 

$

(49.3

)

$

338.9

 

$

(44.7

)

$

773.4

 

$

34.2

 

$

807.6

 

Deferred premium revenue

 

$

96.8

 

$

(18.3

)

$

394.7

 

$

(23.7

)

$

995.1

 

$

(122.2

)

$

1,322.4

 

$

(405.9

)

$

916.5

 

Reserves (salvage)(4)

 

$

(128.0

)

$

25.5

 

$

360.9

 

$

(36.8

)

$

(86.5

)

$

9.1

 

$

144.2

 

$

162.0

 

$

306.2

 

 

 

 

 

BIG Categories
(restated)

 

 

 

BIG 1

 

BIG 2

 

BIG 3

 

Total
BIG,

 

Effect of
Consolidating

 

 

 

 

 

Gross

 

Ceded

 

Gross

 

Ceded

 

Gross

 

Ceded

 

Net(1)

 

VIEs

 

Total

 

 

 

(dollars in millions)

 

Number of risks(2)

 

119

 

(45

)

98

 

(42

)

115

 

(42

)

332

 

 

332

 

Remaining weighted average contract period (in years)

 

11.7

 

16.0

 

8.4

 

7.9

 

8.8

 

6.0

 

9.6

 

 

9.6

 

Net outstanding exposure:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Principal

 

$

6,173.0

 

$

(723.3

)

$

5,899.3

 

$

(182.8

)

$

7,954.5

 

$

(673.6

)

$

18,447.1

 

$

 

$

18,447.1

 

Interest

 

3,599.5

 

(580.4

)

2,601.6

 

(70.9

)

2,490.7

 

(186.3

)

7,854.2

 

 

7,854.2

 

Total

 

$

9,772.5

 

$

(1,303.7

)

$

8,500.9

 

$

(253.7

)

$

10,445.2

 

$

(859.9

)

$

26,301.3

 

$

 

$

26,301.3

 

Expected cash outflows (inflows)

 

$

303.9

 

$

(20.2

)

$

2,036.6

 

$

(68.9

)

$

2,256.6

 

$

(133.2

)

$

4,374.8

 

$

(384.2

)

$

3,990.6

 

Potential recoveries(3)

 

(375.2

)

37.4

 

(533.0

)

16.6

 

(2,543.6

)

197.5

 

(3,200.3

)

354.8

 

(2,845.5

)

Subtotal

 

(71.3

)

17.2

 

1,503.6

 

(52.3

)

(287.0

)

64.3

 

1,174.5

 

(29.4

)

1,145.1

 

Discount

 

(21.0

)

(5.5

)

(613.2

)

21.5

 

(139.6

)

(7.9

)

(765.7

)

(19.8

)

(785.5

)

Present value of expected cash flows

 

$

(92.3

)

$

11.7

 

$

890.4

 

$

(30.8

)

$

(426.6

)

$

56.4

 

$

408.8

 

$

(49.2

)

$

359.6

 

Deferred premium revenue

 

$

169.9

 

$

(16.9

)

$

572.4

 

$

(30.3

)

$

995.9

 

$

(120.7

)

$

1,570.3

 

$

(263.9

)

$

1,306.4

 

Reserves (salvage)(4)

 

$

(112.9

)

$

12.4

 

$

424.4

 

$

(9.5

)

$

(815.9

)

$

105.8

 

$

(395.7

)

$

42.7

 

$

(353.0

)

 

(1)           Includes BIG amounts related to FG VIEs.

 

(2)           A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments.

 

(3)           Includes estimated future recoveries for breaches of R&W as well as excess spread, and draws on HELOCs.

 

(4)           See table “Components of net reserves (salvage)”.

Components of Net Reserves (Salvage)

 

 

As of
September 30, 2011

 

As of
December 31, 2010

 

 

 

(in millions)

 

Loss and LAE reserve

 

$

670.7

 

$

574.4

 

Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses

 

(48.0

)

(22.3

)

Salvage and subrogation recoverable

 

(360.2

)

(1,032.4

)

Salvage and subrogation payable(1)

 

45.6

 

129.4

 

Total

 

308.1

 

(350.9

)

Less: other

 

1.9

 

2.1

 

Financial guaranty reserves, net of salvage and subrogation

 

$

306.2

 

$

(353.0

)

 

(1)                                 Recorded as a component of reinsurance balances payable.