EX-99.2 3 a07-27151_2ex99d2.htm EX-99.2

Exhibit 99.2

 

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Supplement

Third Quarter 2007

September 30, 2007

 

Table of Contents

 

Page

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

 

Selected Financial Highlights

1

 

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

2

 

Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

3

 

Segment Consolidation

4-5

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment

6-7

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment

8-9

 

Mortgage Guaranty Segment

10

 

Other Segment

11

 

Loss and LAE Reserves and Analysis of Net Claims Paid

12

 

Investment Portfolio

13

 

Estimated Net Exposure Amortization

14

 

Estimated Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Future Installment Premiums

15

 

Financial Guaranty Profile

16-31

 

Non-Investment Grade Exposures

32

 

Closely Monitored Credits

33

 

Largest Exposures by Sector

34-37

 

Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources

38

 

Summary Financial and Statistical Data

39

 

This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (“Assured” or “the Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our 10-Q’s dated March 31, 2006, June 30, 2006, September 30, 2006, March 31, 2007 and June 30, 2007 and our 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2006.

 

Some amounts in this Financial Supplement may not add due to rounding.

 

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:

 

Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.  Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements.  For example, the Company’s forward looking statements, including its calculations of adjusted book value, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (“PVP”), net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, total estimated net future premium earnings, and statements regarding losses, pricing, ratings, capital adequacy and the growth of the direct business could be affected by many events.  These events include a significant reduction in the amount of reinsurance ceded by one or more of our principal ceding companies, rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy, contract cancellations, developments or volatility in the world’s financial and capital markets, more severe or frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserves, changes in regulation or tax laws, governmental actions, natural catastrophes, the Company’s dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, technological developments, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, changes in general economic conditions, other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time, management’s response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.  Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made.  The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

 



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Selected Financial Highlights

(dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended

 

% Change

 

Nine Months Ended

 

% Change

 

 

 

September 30,

 

versus

 

September 30,

 

versus

 

 

 

2007

 

2006

 

3Q-06

 

2007

 

2006

 

YTD 2006

 

Gross written premiums (GWP) analysis:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Present value of GWP (PVP) (a)

 

$

165.5

 

$

127.4

 

30

%

$

397.5

 

$

337.6

 

18

%

Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP

 

118.0

 

86.1

 

37

%

268.1

 

201.1

 

33

%

Upfront financial guaranty GWP

 

47.5

 

41.3

 

15

%

129.4

 

136.5

 

(5

)%

Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP

 

40.3

 

30.3

 

33

%

114.8

 

94.2

 

22

%

Financial guaranty GWP

 

87.8

 

71.6

 

23

%

244.2

 

230.7

 

6

%

Plus: Mortgage guaranty segment GWP

 

1.4

 

1.9

 

(26

)%

2.9

 

5.7

 

(49

)%

Plus: Other segment GWP

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

0

%

3.5

 

4.0

 

(13

)%

Total GWP

 

$

89.3

 

$

73.6

 

21

%

$

250.7

 

$

240.5

 

4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net (loss) income

 

$

(115.0

)

$

37.9

 

NM

 

$

(43.2

)

$

117.3

 

NM

 

Less: After-tax realized losses on investments

 

(0.2

)

 

NM

 

(1.7

)

(1.4

)

21

%

Less: After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives

 

(162.9

)

(1.1

)

NM

 

(182.5

)

3.0

 

NM

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

48.2

 

$

39.0

 

24

%

$

141.0

 

$

115.7

 

22

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

1,604.4

 

$

1,756.9

 

(9

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve, after tax (1)

 

614.2

 

527.9

 

16

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in-force, after tax (d)

 

525.8

 

416.6

 

26

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Less: Deferred acquisition costs (DAC), after tax

 

200.3

 

182.9

 

10

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted book value (c)

 

$

2,544.1

 

$

2,518.4

 

1

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ROE, excluding AOCI

 

(28.2

)%

8.9

%

 

 

(3.6

)%

9.4

%

 

 

Operating ROE, excluding AOCI and after-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives (b)

 

11.4

%

9.4

%

 

 

11.4

%

9.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per diluted share:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net (loss) income

 

$

(1.70

)

$

0.51

 

NM

 

$

(0.64

)

$

1.57

 

NM

 

Less: After-tax realized losses on investments

 

 

 

NM

 

(0.03

)

(0.02

)

50

%

Less: After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives

 

(2.40

)

(0.02

)

NM

 

(2.69

)

0.04

 

NM

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

0.70

 

$

0.53

 

32

%

$

2.04

 

$

1.55

 

32

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

23.69

 

$

24.02

 

(1

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve, after tax (1)

 

9.07

 

7.22

 

26

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in-force, after tax (d)

 

7.76

 

5.69

 

36

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Less: DAC, after tax

 

2.96

 

2.50

 

18

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted book value (c)

 

$

37.57

 

$

34.43

 

9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Additional information:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shares outstanding at the end of period (2)

 

67.7

 

73.1

 

(7

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weighted average basic shares outstanding - GAAP (3)

 

67.8

 

73.2

 

(7

)%

67.7

 

73.5

 

(8

)%

Weighted average diluted shares outstanding - GAAP (3)

 

67.8

 

74.2

 

(9

)%

67.7

 

74.5

 

(9

)%

Weighted average diluted shares outstanding - non-GAAP (3)

 

68.9

 

74.2

 

(7

)%

69.0

 

74.5

 

(7

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated net debt service outstanding

 

$

226,258

 

$

167,382

 

35

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated net par outstanding

 

153,695

 

121,579

 

26

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated claims-paying resources

 

3,705

 

3,337

 

11

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross par written

 

15,320

 

13,493

 

14

%

38,992

 

36,906

 

6

%

 


(1) Unearned premium reserve (UPR) less pre-paid reinsurance premiums, after tax.

 

(2) 9/30/07 shares outstanding excludes 1.2 million of nonvested restricted stock and 9/30/06 shares outstanding excludes 1.1 million of nonvested restricted stock, which is considered not issued under FAS 123R.

 

(3) The calculations for weighted average diluted shares outstanding and weighted average basic shares outstanding for GAAP are the same due to the antidilutive effect of options and restricted stock as a result of the net loss for the quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2007. However, operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure, for both periods is positive, therefore the calculation of weighted diluted shares outstanding for operating income includes the dilutive effect of options and restricted stock.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

NM = Not meaningful

 

1



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

(dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended

 

% Change

 

Nine Months Ended

 

% Change

 

 

 

September 30,

 

versus

 

September 30,

 

versus

 

 

 

2007

 

2006

 

3Q-06

 

2007

 

2006

 

YTD 2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

89.3

 

$

73.6

 

21

%

$

250.7

 

$

240.5

 

4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net written premiums

 

80.3

 

73.1

 

10

%

233.6

 

234.2

 

(0

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

56.2

 

51.9

 

8

%

164.3

 

148.2

 

11

%

Net investment income

 

31.8

 

28.5

 

12

%

94.2

 

82.0

 

15

%

Other income

 

0.4

 

 

NM

 

0.4

 

 

NM

 

Total revenues

 

88.4

 

80.4

 

10

%

258.9

 

230.2

 

12

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

3.7

 

0.9

 

311

%

(10.1

)

(6.0

)

68

%

Profit commission expense

 

1.1

 

1.6

 

(31

)%

3.6

 

4.7

 

(23

)%

Acquisition costs

 

10.3

 

11.3

 

(9

)%

32.0

 

33.4

 

(4

)%

Other operating expenses

 

19.9

 

16.5

 

21

%

59.4

 

49.3

 

20

%

Interest and related expenses

 

6.5

 

4.0

 

63

%

19.6

 

12.0

 

63

%

Total expenses

 

41.5

 

34.4

 

21

%

104.5

 

93.4

 

12

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income before provision for income taxes

 

46.9

 

46.0

 

2

%

154.4

 

136.8

 

13

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total (benefit) provision for income taxes

 

(1.3

)

7.0

 

NM

 

13.4

 

21.1

 

(36

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (b)

 

48.2

 

39.0

 

24

%

141.0

 

115.7

 

22

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After-tax realized losses on investments

 

(0.2

)

 

NM

 

(1.7

)

(1.4

)

21

%

After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives

 

(162.9

)

(1.1

)

NM

 

(182.5

)

3.0

 

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net (loss) income

 

$

(115.0

)

$

37.9

 

NM

 

$

(43.2

)

$

117.3

 

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per diluted share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

0.70

 

$

0.53

 

32

%

$

2.04

 

$

1.55

 

32

%

After-tax realized losses on investments

 

 

 

NM

 

(0.03

)

(0.02

)

50

%

After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives

 

(2.40

)

(0.02

)

NM

 

(2.69

)

0.04

 

NM

 

Net (loss) income

 

$

(1.70

)

$

0.51

 

NM

 

$

(0.64

)

$

1.57

 

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Effect of refundings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Earned premiums from refundings

 

$

4.6

 

$

4.1

 

12

%

$

15.9

 

$

9.4

 

69

%

Operating income effect

 

$

2.2

 

$

2.1

 

5

%

$

7.8

 

$

4.4

 

77

%

Operating income per diluted share effect

 

$

0.03

 

$

0.03

 

0

%

$

0.11

 

$

0.06

 

83

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weighted average shares outstanding

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Basic shares outstanding

 

67.8

 

73.2

 

(7

)%

67.7

 

73.5

 

(8

)%

Plus: effect of options

 

 

0.6

 

NM

 

 

0.6

 

NM

 

Plus: effect of restricted stock

 

 

0.4

 

NM

 

 

0.4

 

NM

 

Diluted shares outstanding - GAAP *

 

67.8

 

74.2

 

(9

)%

67.7

 

74.5

 

(9

)%

Plus: effect of options

 

0.6

 

 

NM

 

0.7

 

 

NM

 

Plus: effect of restricted stock

 

0.6

 

 

NM

 

0.6

 

 

NM

 

Diluted shares outstanding - non-GAAP *

 

68.9

 

74.2

 

(7

)%

69.0

 

74.5

 

(7

)%

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 


NM = Not meaningful

 

*       The calculations for weighted average diluted shares outstanding and weighted average basic shares outstanding for GAAP are the same due to the antidilutive effect of options and restricted stock as a result of the net loss for the quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2007. However, operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure, for both periods is positive, therefore the calculation of weighted diluted shares outstanding for operating income includes the dilutive effect of options and restricted stock.

 

2



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of :

 

 

 

September 30,

 

December 31,

 

 

 

2007

 

2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assets

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed maturity securities, at fair value

 

$

2,461.8

 

$

2,331.1

 

Short-term investments, at cost which approximates fair value

 

152.2

 

134.1

 

Total investments

 

2,614.0

 

2,465.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash and cash equivalents

 

25.2

 

4.8

 

Accrued investment income

 

25.7

 

24.2

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

227.5

 

217.0

 

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

17.4

 

7.5

 

Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses

 

9.0

 

10.9

 

Premiums receivable

 

41.1

 

41.6

 

Goodwill

 

85.4

 

85.4

 

Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments

 

21.3

 

52.6

 

Deferred tax asset

 

39.7

 

 

Receivables for securities sold

 

5.4

 

0.6

 

Other assets

 

25.9

 

25.6

 

Total assets

 

$

3,137.6

 

$

2,935.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities and shareholders' equity

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserves

 

$

724.0

 

$

644.5

 

Reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

113.9

 

120.6

 

Profit commissions payable

 

19.2

 

36.0

 

Reinsurance balances payable

 

8.2

 

7.2

 

Current income taxes payable

 

4.4

 

7.2

 

Deferred income taxes

 

 

39.9

 

Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts

 

25.0

 

21.4

 

Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments

 

223.3

 

6.7

 

Senior notes

 

197.4

 

197.4

 

Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures

 

149.7

 

149.7

 

Liability for tax basis step-up adjustment

 

10.1

 

15.0

 

Payables for securities purchased

 

14.7

 

 

Other liabilities

 

43.4

 

39.0

 

Total liabilities

 

1,533.3

 

1,284.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Common stock

 

0.7

 

0.7

 

Additional paid-in capital

 

721.0

 

711.3

 

Retained earnings

 

848.1

 

896.9

 

Accumulated other comprehensive income

 

34.6

 

41.9

 

Total shareholders’ equity

 

1,604.4

 

1,650.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

$

3,137.6

 

$

2,935.3

 

 

3



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Segment Consolidation (1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended September 30, 2007

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP): (a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

10.3

 

$

10.0

 

$

 

$

20.3

 

 

 

$

20.3

 

U.S. structured finance

 

77.0

 

3.0

 

 

80.0

 

 

 

80.0

 

International

 

45.4

 

19.8

 

 

65.2

 

 

 

65.2

 

Total PVP

 

$

132.7

 

$

32.8

 

$

 

$

165.5

 

 

 

$

165.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

64.0

 

$

23.8

 

$

1.4

 

$

89.2

 

$

0.1

 

$

89.3

 

Net written premiums

 

55.0

 

23.8

 

1.4

 

80.3

 

 

80.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

31.7

 

21.6

 

2.9

 

56.2

 

 

56.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

6.4

 

(3.4

)

0.8

 

3.7

 

 

3.7

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

0.8

 

0.4

 

1.1

 

 

1.1

 

Acquisition costs

 

2.4

 

7.7

 

0.2

 

10.3

 

 

10.3

 

Operating expenses

 

15.1

 

4.5

 

0.3

 

19.9

 

 

19.9

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

23.9

 

$

9.6

 

$

1.6

 

$

35.0

 

$

 

$

35.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

7.8

 

$

12.1

 

$

1.3

 

$

21.2

 

$

 

$

21.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

20.2

%

(15.9

)%

26.5

%

6.7

%

 

 

6.7

%

Expense ratio

 

55.2

%

60.1

%

27.5

%

55.7

%

 

 

55.7

%

Combined ratio

 

75.4

%

44.2

%

54.0

%

62.4

%

 

 

62.4

%

 

 

 

Quarter Ended September 30, 2006

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

8.2

 

$

11.4

 

$

 

$

19.6

 

 

 

$

19.6

 

U.S. structured finance

 

45.7

 

3.8

 

 

49.5

 

 

 

49.5

 

International

 

36.9

 

21.4

 

 

58.3

 

 

 

58.3

 

Total PVP

 

$

90.9

 

$

36.5

 

$

 

$

127.4

 

 

 

$

127.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

41.9

 

$

29.7

 

$

1.9

 

$

73.5

 

$

0.1

 

$

73.6

 

Net written premiums

 

41.5

 

29.7

 

1.9

 

73.1

 

 

73.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

21.8

 

25.4

 

4.9

 

51.9

 

 

51.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(0.3

)

1.8

 

0.4

 

1.9

 

(1.0

)

0.9

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

0.7

 

0.9

 

1.6

 

 

1.6

 

Acquisition costs

 

2.1

 

8.9

 

0.3

 

11.3

 

 

11.3

 

Operating expenses

 

12.2

 

3.9

 

0.4

 

16.5

 

 

16.5

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

14.0

 

$

15.3

 

$

2.0

 

$

31.3

 

$

(1.0

)

$

30.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

7.7

 

$

10.1

 

$

2.9

 

$

20.6

 

$

1.0

 

$

21.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(1.3

)%

7.1

%

8.2

%

3.7

%

 

 

1.8

%

Expense ratio

 

65.7

%

53.3

%

31.9

%

56.6

%

 

 

56.6

%

Combined ratio

 

64.4

%

60.4

%

40.1

%

60.3

%

 

 

58.4

%

 


(1) Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

 

4



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Segment Consolidation (2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Nine Months Ended September 30, 2007

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP): (a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

34.5

 

$

28.8

 

$

 

$

63.4

 

 

 

$

63.4

 

U.S. structured finance

 

171.8

 

9.5

 

 

181.2

 

 

 

181.2

 

International

 

114.1

 

38.9

 

 

153.0

 

 

 

153.0

 

Total PVP

 

$

320.4

 

$

77.1

 

$

 

$

397.5

 

 

 

$

397.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

176.2

 

$

68.0

 

$

2.9

 

$

247.2

 

$

3.5

 

$

250.7

 

Net written premiums

 

162.9

 

67.8

 

2.9

 

233.6

 

 

233.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

88.8

 

67.2

 

8.3

 

164.3

 

 

164.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

9.3

 

(19.2

)

1.0

 

(8.9

)

(1.3

)

(10.1

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

2.2

 

1.5

 

3.6

 

 

3.6

 

Acquisition costs

 

7.7

 

24.0

 

0.4

 

32.0

 

 

32.0

 

Operating expenses

 

45.5

 

12.8

 

1.0

 

59.4

 

 

59.4

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

62.5

 

$

19.8

 

$

3.8

 

$

86.1

 

$

(1.3

)

$

84.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

26.3

 

$

47.4

 

$

4.4

 

$

78.2

 

$

1.3

 

$

79.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

10.5

%

(28.6

)%

11.7

%

(5.4

)%

 

 

(6.2

)%

Expense ratio

 

59.9

%

58.1

%

34.5

%

57.8

%

 

 

57.8

%

Combined ratio

 

70.4

%

29.5

%

46.2

%

52.4

%

 

 

51.6

%

 

 

 

Nine Months Ended September 30, 2006

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

22.7

 

$

49.6

 

$

 

$

72.3

 

 

 

$

72.3

 

U.S. structured finance

 

114.3

 

9.1

 

 

123.4

 

 

 

123.4

 

International

 

94.4

 

47.6

 

 

141.9

 

 

 

141.9

 

Total PVP

 

$

231.4

 

$

106.2

 

$

 

$

337.6

 

 

 

$

337.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

140.5

 

$

90.2

 

$

5.7

 

$

236.5

 

$

4.0

 

$

240.5

 

Net written premiums

 

139.0

 

89.5

 

5.7

 

234.2

 

 

234.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

63.7

 

71.8

 

12.7

 

148.2

 

 

148.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(4.6

)

10.3

 

0.6

 

6.3

 

(12.3

)

(6.0

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

2.2

 

2.5

 

4.7

 

 

4.7

 

Acquisition costs

 

6.4

 

26.1

 

0.9

 

33.4

 

 

33.4

 

Operating expenses

 

37.6

 

10.7

 

1.0

 

49.3

 

 

49.3

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

39.4

 

$

49.2

 

$

5.0

 

$

93.7

 

$

(12.3

)

$

81.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

24.3

 

$

22.6

 

$

7.7

 

$

54.5

 

$

12.3

 

$

66.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(7.2

)%

14.3

%

4.7

%

4.3

%

 

 

(4.0

)%

Expense ratio

 

69.1

%

54.2

%

34.8

%

58.9

%

 

 

58.9

%

Combined ratio

 

61.9

%

68.5

%

39.5

%

63.2

%

 

 

54.9

%

 


(1) Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

5



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

Nine Months
 2006

 

Nine Months
2007

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a)

 

$

41.6

 

$

98.8

 

$

90.9

 

$

70.8

 

$

83.7

 

$

104.0

 

$

132.7

 

$

231.4

 

$

320.4

 

Less: Present value of installment premiums (a)

 

33.2

 

53.1

 

69.4

 

48.6

 

63.0

 

68.7

 

99.7

 

155.7

 

231.5

 

Upfront gross written premiums (GWP)

 

8.5

 

45.7

 

21.5

 

22.2

 

20.7

 

35.3

 

33.0

 

75.7

 

88.9

 

Plus: Installment GWP

 

21.8

 

22.7

 

20.4

 

26.5

 

28.8

 

27.4

 

31.0

 

64.8

 

87.3

 

Financial guaranty direct GWP

 

$

30.2

 

$

68.4

 

$

41.9

 

$

48.7

 

$

49.5

 

$

62.7

 

$

64.0

 

$

140.5

 

$

176.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

30.2

 

$

68.4

 

$

41.9

 

$

48.7

 

$

49.5

 

$

62.7

 

$

64.0

 

$

140.5

 

$

176.2

 

Net written premiums

 

29.7

 

67.8

 

41.5

 

48.0

 

48.9

 

59.0

 

55.0

 

139.0

 

162.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scheduled net earned premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

0.9

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.3

 

1.5

 

1.7

 

2.9

 

4.5

 

U.S. structured finance

 

18.6

 

18.8

 

18.1

 

19.8

 

21.3

 

21.6

 

23.5

 

55.6

 

66.4

 

International

 

1.2

 

1.4

 

2.7

 

5.3

 

4.6

 

5.2

 

5.3

 

5.3

 

15.2

 

Total scheduled net earned premiums

 

20.7

 

21.2

 

21.8

 

26.0

 

27.2

 

28.3

 

30.6

 

63.7

 

86.0

 

Net earned premiums from refundings

 

 

 

 

 

1.7

 

 

1.1

 

 

2.8

 

Total net earned premiums

 

20.7

 

21.2

 

21.8

 

26.0

 

28.9

 

28.3

 

31.7

 

63.7

 

88.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

(2.0

)

(0.4

)

(0.3

)

0.9

 

0.2

 

1.7

 

0.3

 

(2.7

)

2.2

 

Portfolio

 

0.2

 

(2.1

)

 

1.7

 

1.0

 

 

6.1

 

(1.9

)

7.1

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(1.8

)

(2.5

)

(0.3

)

2.6

 

1.2

 

1.7

 

6.4

 

(4.6

)

9.3

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs

 

1.8

 

2.3

 

2.1

 

2.2

 

3.0

 

2.3

 

2.4

 

6.4

 

7.7

 

Operating expenses

 

13.4

 

12.0

 

12.2

 

14.7

 

15.9

 

14.5

 

15.1

 

37.6

 

45.5

 

Total expenses

 

$

13.5

 

$

11.8

 

$

14.0

 

$

19.5

 

$

20.1

 

$

18.5

 

$

23.9

 

$

39.4

 

$

62.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

7.2

 

$

9.4

 

$

7.7

 

$

6.5

 

$

8.8

 

$

9.8

 

$

7.8

 

$

24.3

 

$

26.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(8.7

)%

(11.7

)%

(1.3

)%

10.0

%

4.2

%

6.0

%

20.2

%

(7.2

)%

10.5

%

Expense ratio

 

73.8

%

67.4

%

65.7

%

65.1

%

65.4

%

59.4

%

55.2

%

69.1

%

59.9

%

Combined ratio

 

65.1

%

55.7

%

64.4

%

75.1

%

69.6

%

65.4

%

75.4

%

61.9

%

70.4

%

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

6



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

Nine Months
2006

 

Nine Months
2007

 

PVP (a):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

8.5

 

$

6.0

 

$

8.2

 

$

13.0

 

$

8.8

 

$

15.4

 

$

10.3

 

$

22.7

 

$

34.5

 

U.S. structured finance

 

27.6

 

41.0

 

45.7

 

32.5

 

44.9

 

49.9

 

77.0

 

114.3

 

171.8

 

International

 

5.6

 

51.8

 

36.9

 

25.3

 

29.9

 

38.8

 

45.4

 

94.4

 

114.1

 

Total

 

$

41.6

 

$

98.8

 

$

90.9

 

$

70.8

 

$

83.7

 

$

104.0

 

$

132.7

 

$

231.4

 

$

320.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

283

 

$

326

 

$

423

 

$

628

 

$

609

 

$

705

 

$

695

 

$

1,032

 

$

2,010

 

U.S. structured finance

 

4,446

 

10,943

 

4,968

 

6,486

 

5,776

 

7,723

 

9,264

 

20,357

 

22,763

 

International

 

648

 

2,210

 

5,375

 

5,007

 

2,190

 

2,393

 

2,995

 

8,233

 

7,578

 

Total

 

$

5,377

 

$

13,479

 

$

10,766

 

$

12,121

 

$

8,575

 

$

10,822

 

$

12,954

 

$

29,622

 

$

32,351

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

3,250

 

$

2,471

 

$

2,878

 

$

3,499

 

$

3,989

 

$

4,686

 

$

5,313

 

$

2,878

 

$

5,313

 

U.S. structured finance

 

31,559

 

38,847

 

39,191

 

44,467

 

48,430

 

50,562

 

57,497

 

39,191

 

57,497

 

International

 

7,215

 

9,806

 

14,865

 

19,868

 

21,319

 

22,979

 

25,896

 

14,865

 

25,896

 

Total

 

$

42,024

 

$

51,124

 

$

56,935

 

$

67,834

 

$

73,738

 

$

78,227

 

$

88,705

 

$

56,935

 

$

88,705

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net present value of installment premiums in force: (d)

 

$

265.7

 

$

300.5

 

$

358.4

 

$

408.2

 

$

425.3

 

$

459.1

 

$

533.8

 

$

358.4

 

$

533.8

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

48.6

 

95.2

 

114.9

 

136.8

 

156.8

 

187.9

 

210.9

 

114.9

 

210.9

 

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

7



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1) (1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

Nine Months
2006

 

Nine Months
2007

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a)

 

$

20.1

 

$

49.6

 

$

36.5

 

$

45.2

 

$

23.1

 

$

21.3

 

$

32.8

 

$

106.2

 

$

77.1

 

Less: Present value of installment premiums (a)

 

11.0

 

17.7

 

16.8

 

20.8

 

14.2

 

4.2

 

18.3

 

45.5

 

36.7

 

Upfront gross written premiums (GWP)

 

9.1

 

31.9

 

19.8

 

24.4

 

8.9

 

17.1

 

14.5

 

60.8

 

40.5

 

Plus: Installment GWP

 

9.7

 

9.8

 

9.9

 

9.3

 

9.8

 

8.4

 

9.3

 

29.4

 

27.5

 

Financial guaranty reinsurance GWP

 

$

18.8

 

$

41.7

 

$

29.7

 

$

33.7

 

$

18.7

 

$

25.5

 

$

23.8

 

$

90.2

 

$

68.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Treaty

 

$

12.0

 

$

29.1

 

$

22.4

 

$

19.0

 

$

14.2

 

$

16.9

 

$

15.8

 

$

63.4

 

$

46.9

 

Facultative

 

6.8

 

12.6

 

7.3

 

14.7

 

4.5

 

8.6

 

8.0

 

26.7

 

21.1

 

Total gross written premiums

 

$

18.8

 

$

41.7

 

$

29.7

 

$

33.7

 

$

18.7

 

$

25.5

 

$

23.8

 

$

90.2

 

$

68.0

 

Net written premiums

 

18.5

 

41.3

 

29.7

 

33.7

 

18.5

 

25.5

 

23.8

 

89.5

 

67.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scheduled net earned premiums

 

19.7

 

21.4

 

21.3

 

20.8

 

18.7

 

17.3

 

18.1

 

62.4

 

54.1

 

Net earned premiums from refundings

 

3.6

 

1.7

 

4.1

 

1.8

 

3.2

 

6.4

 

3.5

 

9.4

 

13.1

 

Total net earned premiums

 

23.3

 

23.1

 

25.4

 

22.6

 

21.9

 

23.7

 

21.6

 

71.8

 

67.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

2.3

 

1.8

 

(1.2

)

2.4

 

(7.3

)

(2.4

)

2.8

 

2.9

 

(6.9

)

Portfolio

 

0.5

 

3.9

 

3.0

 

0.4

 

2.5

 

(8.6

)

(6.2

)

7.4

 

(12.3

)

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

2.8

 

5.7

 

1.8

 

2.8

 

(4.8

)

(11.0

)

(3.4

)

10.3

 

(19.2

)

Profit commission expense

 

0.4

 

1.0

 

0.7

 

0.6

 

0.9

 

0.5

 

0.8

 

2.2

 

2.2

 

Acquisition costs

 

8.7

 

8.5

 

8.9

 

7.9

 

7.7

 

8.6

 

7.7

 

26.1

 

24.0

 

Operating expenses

 

3.4

 

3.4

 

3.9

 

3.8

 

4.4

 

3.9

 

4.5

 

10.7

 

12.8

 

Total expenses

 

$

15.3

 

$

18.5

 

$

15.3

 

$

15.2

 

$

8.3

 

$

2.0

 

$

9.6

 

49.2

 

$

19.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

8.0

 

$

4.6

 

$

10.1

 

$

7.4

 

$

13.6

 

$

21.7

 

$

12.1

 

$

22.6

 

$

47.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

12.0

%

24.6

%

7.1

%

12.6

%

(21.9

)%

(46.4

)%

(15.9

)%

14.3

%

(28.6

)%

Expense ratio

 

53.6

%

55.4

%

53.3

%

54.7

%

59.6

%

54.9

%

60.1

%

54.2

%

58.1

%

Combined ratio

 

65.6

%

80.0

%

60.4

%

67.3

%

37.7

%

8.5

%

44.2

%

68.5

%

29.5

%

 


(1) Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

8



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1) (2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

Nine Months
2006

 

Nine Months
2007

 

PVP (a):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

8.5

 

$

29.7

 

$

11.4

 

$

30.4

 

$

4.7

 

$

14.1

 

$

10.0

 

$

49.6

 

$

28.8

 

U.S. structured finance

 

3.4

 

2.0

 

3.8

 

4.5

 

3.9

 

2.5

 

3.0

 

9.1

 

9.5

 

International

 

8.3

 

17.9

 

21.4

 

10.4

 

14.4

 

4.7

 

19.8

 

47.6

 

38.9

 

Total

 

$

20.1

 

$

49.6

 

$

36.5

 

$

45.2

 

$

23.1

 

$

21.3

 

$

32.8

 

$

106.2

 

$

77.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

1,631

 

$

718

 

$

1,475

 

$

1,367

 

$

754

 

$

1,845

 

$

1,344

 

$

3,825

 

$

3,943

 

U.S. structured finance

 

444

 

311

 

453

 

127

 

496

 

491

 

472

 

1,208

 

1,460

 

International

 

677

 

775

 

800

 

371

 

537

 

152

 

550

 

2,251

 

1,238

 

Total

 

$

2,752

 

$

1,804

 

$

2,727

 

$

1,865

 

$

1,787

 

$

2,488

 

$

2,366

 

$

7,284

 

$

6,641

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

48,309

 

$

48,316

 

$

48,335

 

$

48,836

 

$

48,929

 

$

48,801

 

$

48,832

 

$

48,335

 

$

48,832

 

U.S. structured finance

 

9,387

 

8,314

 

8,046

 

7,116

 

6,945

 

6,809

 

6,155

 

8,046

 

6,155

 

International

 

7,196

 

7,857

 

8,263

 

8,510

 

9,240

 

9,318

 

10,002

 

8,263

 

10,002

 

Total

 

$

64,893

 

$

64,487

 

$

64,644

 

$

64,462

 

$

65,115

 

$

64,928

 

$

64,989

 

$

64,644

 

$

64,989

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net present value of installment premiums in force (d)

 

$

153.8

 

$

158.9

 

$

164.5

 

$

164.9

 

$

160.2

 

$

155.1

 

$

151.4

 

$

164.5

 

$

151.4

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

431.2

 

449.4

 

453.8

 

464.8

 

460.9

 

462.9

 

465.0

 

453.8

 

465.0

 

 


(1) Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

9



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Mortgage Guaranty Segment

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

Nine Months
2006

 

Nine Months
2007

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

2.6

 

$

1.2

 

$

1.9

 

$

2.7

 

$

1.0

 

$

0.5

 

$

1.4

 

$

5.7

 

$

2.9

 

Net written premiums

 

2.6

 

1.2

 

1.9

 

2.7

 

1.0

 

0.5

 

1.4

 

5.7

 

2.9

 

Net earned premiums

 

4.2

 

3.7

 

4.9

 

9.9

 

3.1

 

2.3

 

2.9

 

12.7

 

8.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

(0.1

)

 

 

 

0.2

 

 

Portfolio and IBNR

 

(0.2

)

0.3

 

0.3

 

(4.9

)

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.8

 

0.4

 

1.0

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(0.2

)

0.4

 

0.4

 

(5.0

)

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.8

 

0.6

 

1.0

 

Profit commission expense

 

0.9

 

0.7

 

0.9

 

4.3

 

0.7

 

0.4

 

0.4

 

2.5

 

1.5

 

Acquisition costs

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

1.3

 

0.2

 

 

0.2

 

0.9

 

0.4

 

Operating expenses

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.4

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.5

 

0.3

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

Total expenses

 

$

1.3

 

$

1.7

 

$

2.0

 

$

0.9

 

$

1.3

 

$

1.0

 

$

1.6

 

$

5.0

 

$

3.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

2.8

 

$

2.0

 

$

2.9

 

$

8.9

 

$

1.8

 

$

1.3

 

$

1.3

 

$

7.7

 

$

4.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(3.7

)%

9.4

%

8.2

%

(50.7

)%

3.3

%

4.3

%

26.5

%

4.7

%

11.7

%

Expense ratio

 

36.1

%

36.4

%

31.9

%

60.2

%

37.8

%

39.1

%

27.5

%

34.8

%

34.5

%

Combined ratio

 

32.4

%

45.8

%

40.1

%

9.5

%

41.1

%

43.4

%

54.0

%

39.5

%

46.2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Risk in force

 

$

1,970

 

$

1,960

 

$

2,003

 

$

1,822

 

$

1,374

 

$

1,398

 

$

1,374

 

$

2,003

 

$

1,374

 

Risk written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

48.1

 

45.6

 

42.6

 

35.4

 

33.5

 

31.6

 

30.1

 

42.6

 

30.1

 

 

10



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Other Segment

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

Nine Months
2006

 

Nine Months
2007

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

3.8

 

$

0.1

 

$

0.1

 

$

0.1

 

$

3.3

 

$

0.1

 

$

0.1

 

$

4.0

 

$

3.5

 

Net written premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(1.2

)

(10.1

)

(1.0

)

(1.2

)

(1.3

)

 

 

(12.3

)

(1.3

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total expenses

 

$

(1.2

)

$

(10.1

)

$

(1.0

)

$

(1.2

)

$

(1.3

)

$

 

$

 

$

(12.3

)

$

(1.3

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

1.2

 

$

10.1

 

$

1.0

 

$

1.2

 

$

1.3

 

$

 

$

 

$

12.3

 

$

1.3

 

 

 

11



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Loss and LAE Reserves by Segment/Type and Analysis of Net Claims Paid

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of September 30, 2007

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Reserves by segment and type:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

$

3.2

 

$

36.9

 

$

0.1

 

$

40.2

 

$

2.5

 

$

42.7

 

IBNR

 

 

 

 

 

6.5

 

6.5

 

Portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits

 

13.9

 

31.6

 

3.2

 

48.7

 

 

48.7

 

Portfolio reserves associated with CMC credits

 

1.6

 

14.4

 

 

16.0

 

 

16.0

 

Total

 

$

18.7

 

$

82.9

 

$

3.3

 

$

104.9

 

$

9.0

 

$

113.9

 

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2006

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Reserves by segment and type:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

$

1.0

 

$

36.1

 

$

0.1

 

$

37.2

 

$

6.8

 

$

44.0

 

IBNR

 

 

 

 

 

7.4

 

7.4

 

Portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits

 

6.1

 

29.1

 

2.2

 

37.4

 

 

37.4

 

Portfolio reserves associated with CMC credits

 

2.2

 

29.6

 

 

31.8

 

 

31.8

 

Total

 

$

9.3

 

$

94.8

 

$

2.3

 

$

106.4

 

$

14.2

 

$

120.6

 

 

Analysis of Net Claims Paid

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Full Year

 

Full Year

 

 

 

3Q-07

 

3Q-06

 

2006

 

2005

 

Net claims paid by segment:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

$

 

$

(1.2

)

$

1.7

 

$

4.7

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

(5.2

)

(0.8

)

11.7

 

(66.6

)

Mortgage Guaranty

 

 

0.1

 

0.3

 

0.5

 

Total Financial Guaranty

 

$

(5.2

)

$

(1.9

)

$

13.7

 

$

(61.4

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums by segment:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

$

31.7

 

$

21.8

 

$

89.7

 

$

74.5

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

21.6

 

25.4

 

94.4

 

105.6

 

Mortgage Guaranty

 

2.9

 

4.9

 

22.7

 

18.6

 

Total Financial Guaranty

 

$

56.2

 

$

51.9

 

$

206.7

 

$

198.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratio of net claims paid by segment:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

0.0

%

(5.5

)%

1.9

%

6.3

%

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

(24.1

)%

(3.2

)%

12.4

%

(63.1

)%

Mortgage Guaranty

 

0.0

%

2.0

%

1.3

%

2.7

%

Total Financial Guaranty

 

(9.3

)%

(3.7

)%

6.6

%

(30.9

)%

 

12



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Investment Portfolio

as of September 30, 2007

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

Pre-Tax

 

After-Tax

 

 

 

Annualized

 

 

 

Amortized

 

Book

 

Book

 

 

 

Investment

 

 

 

Cost

 

Yield

 

Yield

 

Fair Value

 

Income

 

Fixed maturity securities available for sale:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies

 

$

106.9

 

5.0

%

4.1

%

$

109.9

 

$

5.3

 

Agency obligations

 

137.6

 

5.6

%

5.1

%

141.6

 

7.7

 

Foreign government securities

 

65.8

 

5.2

%

3.6

%

65.9

 

3.4

 

Obligations of states and political subdivisions

 

419.5

 

4.7

%

4.4

%

429.4

 

19.5

 

Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions

 

549.2

 

4.8

%

4.6

%

570.9

 

26.6

 

Corporate securities

 

145.9

 

5.8

%

4.9

%

147.2

 

8.4

 

Mortgage-backed securities:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pass-thrus

 

833.8

 

5.5

%

4.8

%

827.7

 

45.7

 

PACs

 

72.7

 

4.9

%

4.6

%

71.8

 

3.6

 

Asset-backed securities

 

97.3

 

5.2

%

4.5

%

97.4

 

5.0

 

Total fixed maturity securities available for sale

 

2,428.7

 

5.2

%

4.6

%

2,461.8

 

125.3

 

Short-term investments

 

152.2

 

5.2

%

4.4

%

152.2

 

7.9

 

Total investments

 

$

2,580.9

 

5.2

%

4.6

%

$

2,614.0

 

$

133.2

 

 

Ratings (1):

 

Fair Value

 

%

 

Treasury and U.S. government obligations

 

$

109.9

 

4.5

%

Agency obligations

 

141.6

 

5.8

%

AAA/Aaa

 

1,773.7

 

72.0

%

AA/Aa

 

350.8

 

14.2

%

A/A

 

85.8

 

3.5

%

Total

 

$

2,461.8

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Duration of investment portfolio (in years):

 

 

 

4.4

 

 


(1) Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody’s Investor Services and Standard & Poor’s classifications.

 

13



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Estimated Net Exposure Amortization (1)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

Estimated

 

 

 

Estimated Net

 

Ending Net

 

 

 

Debt Service

 

Debt Service

 

 

 

Amortization

 

Outstanding

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (as of September 30)

 

 

 

$

 117,145

 

2007 (October - December)

 

$

2,062

 

115,083

 

2008

 

10,399

 

104,684

 

2009

 

8,555

 

96,129

 

2010

 

9,367

 

86,763

 

2011

 

9,326

 

77,437

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007-2011

 

39,708

 

77,437

 

2012-2016

 

48,433

 

29,004

 

2017-2021

 

10,561

 

18,443

 

2022-2026

 

4,357

 

14,086

 

After 2026

 

14,086

 

 

Total

 

$

117,145

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (as of September 30)

 

 

 

$

 109,113

 

2007 (October - December)

 

$

1,485

 

107,628

 

2008

 

5,733

 

101,895

 

2009

 

5,989

 

95,906

 

2010

 

5,455

 

90,451

 

2011

 

5,318

 

85,133

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007-2011

 

23,980

 

85,133

 

2012-2016

 

24,616

 

60,517

 

2017-2021

 

20,250

 

40,267

 

2022-2026

 

16,510

 

23,756

 

After 2026

 

23,756

 

 

Total

 

$

109,113

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Financial Guaranty:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (as of September 30)

 

 

 

$

 226,258

 

2007 (October - December)

 

$

3,548

 

222,711

 

2008

 

16,132

 

206,579

 

2009

 

14,544

 

192,035

 

2010

 

14,821

 

177,214

 

2011

 

14,644

 

162,570

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007-2011

 

63,688

 

162,570

 

2012-2016

 

73,049

 

89,521

 

2017-2021

 

30,811

 

58,710

 

2022-2026

 

20,867

 

37,843

 

After 2026

 

37,843

 

 

Total

 

$

226,258

 

 

 

 


(1) Represents amortization of existing guaranteed portfolio (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of September 30, 2007. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations.

 

14



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Estimated Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Future Installment Premiums

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

Estimated

 

 

 

Total Estimated

 

 

 

 

 

Net Unearned

 

Estimated

 

Net Future

 

 

 

Net Unearned

 

Premium

 

Net Future

 

Premium

 

 

 

Premiums (1)

 

Amortization

 

Installments

 

Earnings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (as of September 30)

 

$

210.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (4th Qtr)

 

195.2

 

$

15.6

 

$

17.4

 

$

33.0

 

2008

 

184.9

 

10.3

 

106.2

 

116.5

 

2009

 

176.4

 

8.5

 

98.4

 

106.9

 

2010

 

168.2

 

8.1

 

87.1

 

95.2

 

2011

 

160.5

 

7.8

 

80.1

 

87.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007-2011

 

160.5

 

50.4

 

389.1

 

439.5

 

2012-2016

 

126.0

 

34.4

 

208.1

 

242.5

 

2017-2021

 

98.0

 

28.1

 

47.2

 

75.3

 

2022-2026

 

74.7

 

23.3

 

23.3

 

46.6

 

After 2026

 

 

74.7

 

30.5

 

105.1

 

Total

 

 

 

$

210.9

 

$

698.2

 

$

909.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (as of September 30)

 

$

465.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (4th Qtr)

 

452.5

 

$

12.4

 

$

3.4

 

$

15.8

 

2008

 

413.6

 

38.9

 

27.5

 

66.5

 

2009

 

380.0

 

33.5

 

25.5

 

59.0

 

2010

 

348.8

 

31.2

 

24.3

 

55.5

 

2011

 

319.5

 

29.3

 

22.0

 

51.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007-2011

 

319.5

 

145.4

 

102.7

 

248.2

 

2012-2016

 

199.4

 

120.1

 

89.7

 

209.8

 

2017-2021

 

118.8

 

80.6

 

61.7

 

142.2

 

2022-2026

 

65.2

 

53.7

 

46.5

 

100.1

 

After 2026

 

 

65.2

 

73.0

 

138.3

 

Total

 

 

 

$

465.0

 

$

373.6

 

$

838.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Financial Guaranty:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (as of September 30)

 

$

675.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (4th Qtr)

 

647.7

 

$

28.1

 

$

20.8

 

$

48.9

 

2008

 

598.5

 

49.3

 

133.7

 

183.0

 

2009

 

556.4

 

42.1

 

123.9

 

166.0

 

2010

 

517.0

 

39.4

 

111.4

 

150.7

 

2011

 

480.0

 

37.0

 

102.1

 

139.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007-2011

 

480.0

 

195.8

 

491.8

 

687.6

 

2012-2016

 

325.4

 

154.6

 

297.8

 

452.3

 

2017-2021

 

216.8

 

108.6

 

108.9

 

217.6

 

2022-2026

 

139.8

 

77.0

 

69.8

 

146.8

 

After 2026

 

 

139.8

 

103.5

 

243.3

 

Total

 

 

 

$

675.8

 

$

1,071.8

 

$

1,747.6

 

 


(1) Unearned premium amounts are U.S. GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums.

 

15



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 16)

As of September 30, 2007

(dollars in millions)

 

Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating (8)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating (8)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating (8)

 

Sector:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

1,234

 

A+

 

$

12,043

 

A+

 

$

13,277

 

A+

 

Tax backed

 

1,627

 

BBB+

 

10,254

 

A+

 

11,881

 

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

183

 

A-

 

9,111

 

A+

 

9,294

 

A+

 

Healthcare

 

1,698

 

A-

 

5,546

 

A

 

7,244

 

A

 

Transportation

 

42

 

AAA

 

6,936

 

A

 

6,978

 

A

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

39

 

AAA

 

1,646

 

BBB+

 

1,684

 

A-

 

Higher education

 

480

 

BBB

 

968

 

AA-

 

1,447

 

A

 

Housing

 

 

 

988

 

AA-

 

988

 

AA-

 

Structured municipal (1)

 

 

 

597

 

AAA

 

597

 

AAA

 

Other public finance (2)

 

11

 

BBB

 

744

 

A

 

755

 

A

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

5,313

 

A-

 

$

48,832

 

A+

 

$

54,145

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations (3)

 

$

31,440

 

AAA

 

$

1,035

 

AA+

 

$

32,475

 

AAA

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity (4)

 

7,784

 

AA-

 

1,422

 

A-

 

9,206

 

A+

 

Commercial receivables (5)

 

6,004

 

AAA

 

2,145

 

A-

 

8,149

 

AA

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity (4)

 

6,880

 

AAA

 

280

 

A+

 

7,161

 

AAA

 

Consumer receivables (6)

 

3,563

 

AAA

 

589

 

BBB

 

4,152

 

AA+

 

Other structured finance (7)

 

1,825

 

AA+

 

683

 

A+

 

2,509

 

AA

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

57,497

 

AA+

 

$

6,155

 

A

 

$

63,652

 

AA+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations (3)

 

$

6,947

 

AAA

 

$

825

 

AAA

 

$

7,772

 

AAA

 

Regulated utilities

 

3,858

 

A+

 

3,475

 

BBB+

 

7,333

 

A-

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity (4)

 

4,962

 

AAA

 

201

 

AA-

 

5,162

 

AAA

 

Infrastructure

 

1,095

 

AA+

 

3,423

 

BBB+

 

4,517

 

A-

 

Pooled infrastructure

 

4,294

 

AAA

 

 

 

4,294

 

AAA

 

Other international structured finance

 

2,562

 

AA

 

1,153

 

A

 

3,715

 

AA-

 

Public finance

 

863

 

AA

 

552

 

A

 

1,415

 

AA-

 

Future flow

 

638

 

BBB

 

225

 

BBB+

 

862

 

BBB

 

Insurance securitizations

 

678

 

BBB+

 

150

 

A

 

828

 

BBB+

 

Total international

 

$

25,896

 

AA

 

$

10,002

 

A-

 

$

35,898

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total net par outstanding

 

$

88,705

 

AA+

 

$

64,989

 

A

 

$

153,695

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage guaranty risk in force

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1,374

 

N/A

 

 


(1) Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

 

(2) Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

 

(3) Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

 

(4) Mortgage-backed and home equity: includes individual and repackaged mortgage-backed securities.

 

(5) Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

 

(6) Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

 

(7) Other structured finance: includes secured structured lending, manufactured housing, collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed securities and emerging markets.

 

(8) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

 

16



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 16)

(dollars in millions)

 

Gross Par Written by Asset Type

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

 

 

3Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

3Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

Sector:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

249

 

$

395

 

$

644

 

$

116

 

$

572

 

$

687

 

Healthcare

 

178

 

206

 

384

 

159

 

267

 

426

 

Tax backed

 

134

 

228

 

362

 

149

 

318

 

466

 

Transportation

 

 

337

 

337

 

 

 

 

Municipal utilities

 

53

 

143

 

197

 

 

231

 

231

 

Higher education

 

81

 

14

 

94

 

 

11

 

11

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

 

19

 

19

 

 

38

 

38

 

Housing

 

 

1

 

1

 

 

25

 

25

 

Structured municipal (1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other public finance (2)

 

 

 

 

 

13

 

13

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

695

 

$

1,344

 

$

2,039

 

$

423

 

$

1,475

 

$

1,898

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations (3)

 

$

4,568

 

$

105

 

$

4,672

 

$

2,870

 

$

65

 

$

2,935

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity (4)

 

3,388

 

46

 

3,433

 

 

153

 

153

 

Consumer receivables (5)

 

700

 

29

 

729

 

503

 

28

 

531

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity (4)

 

609

 

77

 

685

 

 

10

 

10

 

Commercial receivables (6)

 

 

210

 

210

 

1,045

 

184

 

1,229

 

Other structured finance (7)

 

 

7

 

7

 

550

 

13

 

563

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

9,264

 

$

472

 

$

9,737

 

$

4,968

 

$

453

 

$

5,421

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations (3)

 

$

1,896

 

$

54

 

$

1,950

 

$

1,137

 

$

127

 

$

1,264

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity (4)

 

696

 

2

 

698

 

1,454

 

2

 

1,456

 

Regulated utilities

 

402

 

271

 

673

 

374

 

83

 

457

 

Infrastructure

 

 

108

 

108

 

1,402

 

550

 

1,952

 

Public finance

 

 

85

 

85

 

 

 

 

Other international structured finance

 

 

29

 

29

 

1,007

 

37

 

1,045

 

Future flow

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Insurance securitizations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled infrastructure

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total international

 

$

2,995

 

$

550

 

$

3,545

 

$

5,375

 

$

800

 

$

6,174

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total gross par written

 

$

12,954

 

$

2,366

 

$

15,320

 

$

10,766

 

$

2,727

 

$

13,493

 

 


(1) Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

 

(2) Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

 

(3) Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

 

(4) Mortgage-backed and home equity: includes individual and repackaged mortgage-backed securities.

 

(5) Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

 

(6) Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

 

(7) Other structured finance: includes secured structured lending, manufactured housing, collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed securities and emerging markets.

 

17



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 16)

(dollars in millions)

 

Gross Par Written by Asset Type

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

 

 

9 Months
2007

 

9 Months
2007

 

9 Months
2007

 

9 Months
2006

 

9 Months
2006

 

9 Months
2006

 

Sector:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tax backed

 

$

862

 

$

1,044

 

$

1,905

 

$

301

 

$

1,083

 

$

1,384

 

General obligation

 

343

 

1,157

 

1,500

 

183

 

1,219

 

1,402

 

Healthcare

 

613

 

435

 

1,048

 

381

 

566

 

947

 

Municipal utilities

 

63

 

481

 

544

 

27

 

600

 

628

 

Transportation

 

 

516

 

516

 

 

73

 

73

 

Higher education

 

129

 

179

 

308

 

139

 

57

 

196

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

 

129

 

129

 

 

170

 

170

 

Housing

 

 

2

 

2

 

 

29

 

29

 

Structured municipal (1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other public finance (2)

 

 

1

 

1

 

 

28

 

28

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

2,010

 

$

3,943

 

$

5,952

 

$

1,032

 

$

3,825

 

$

4,856

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations (3)

 

$

12,838

 

$

288

 

$

13,126

 

$

11,558

 

$

229

 

$

11,787

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity (4)

 

5,640

 

369

 

6,009

 

321

 

462

 

783

 

Consumer receivables (5)

 

1,900

 

124

 

2,024

 

1,424

 

167

 

1,591

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity (4)

 

1,653

 

125

 

1,778

 

3,500

 

15

 

3,515

 

Commercial receivables (6)

 

155

 

537

 

692

 

3,004

 

253

 

3,256

 

Other structured finance (7)

 

578

 

17

 

595

 

550

 

82

 

632

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

22,763

 

$

1,460

 

$

24,223

 

$

20,357

 

$

1,208

 

$

21,565

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations (3)

 

$

4,634

 

$

146

 

$

4,780

 

$

1,958

 

$

356

 

$

2,315

 

Regulated utilities

 

1,673

 

525

 

2,198

 

1,365

 

345

 

1,710

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity (4)

 

696

 

20

 

716

 

1,454

 

2

 

1,456

 

Infrastructure

 

157

 

366

 

523

 

1,574

 

951

 

2,525

 

Public finance

 

 

101

 

101

 

374

 

410

 

784

 

Other international structured finance

 

418

 

82

 

499

 

1,007

 

103

 

1,110

 

Future flow

 

 

 

 

 

84

 

84

 

Insurance securitizations

 

 

 

 

500

 

 

500

 

Pooled infrastructure

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total international

 

$

7,578

 

$

1,238

 

$

8,816

 

$

8,233

 

$

2,251

 

$

10,484

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total gross par written

 

$

32,351

 

$

6,641

 

$

38,992

 

$

29,622

 

$

7,284

 

$

36,906

 

 


(1)   Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

 

(2)   Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

 

(3)   Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

 

(4)   Mortgage-backed and home equity: includes individual and repackaged mortgage-backed securities.

 

(5)   Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

 

(6)   Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

 

(7)   Other structured finance: includes secured structured lending, manufactured housing, collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed securities and emerging markets.

 

18



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (4 of 16)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 

 

 

As of September 30, 2007

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Ratings (1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

69,237

 

78.1

%

$

4,004

 

6.2

%

$

73,241

 

47.7

%

AA/Aa

 

4,938

 

5.6

%

20,163

 

31.0

%

25,101

 

16.3

%

A/A

 

6,711

 

7.6

%

26,431

 

40.7

%

33,143

 

21.6

%

BBB/Baa

 

7,767

 

8.8

%

13,657

 

21.0

%

21,424

 

13.9

%

Below investment grade

 

52

 

0.1

%

734

 

1.1

%

786

 

0.5

%

Total exposures

 

$

88,705

 

100.0

%

$

64,989

 

100.0

%

$

153,695

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2006

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

 

 

Net Par

Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Ratings (1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

52,606

 

77.6

%

$

4,448

 

6.9

%

$

57,054

 

43.1

%

AA/Aa

 

4,028

 

5.9

%

18,955

 

29.4

%

22,983

 

17.4

%

A/A

 

5,757

 

8.5

%

27,065

 

42.0

%

32,822

 

24.9

%

BBB/Baa

 

5,351

 

7.9

%

12,831

 

19.9

%

18,182

 

13.7

%

Below investment grade

 

92

 

0.1

%

1,163

 

1.8

%

1,255

 

0.9

%

Total exposures

 

$

67,834

 

100.0

%

$

64,462

 

100.0

%

$

132,296

 

100.0

%

 


(1)          Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

 

19



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (5 of 16)

(dollars in millions)

 

Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio as of September 30, 2007

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

U.S.:

 

 

 

 

 

California

 

$

8,161

 

5.3

%

New York

 

5,771

 

3.8

%

Florida

 

3,447

 

2.2

%

Illinois

 

3,182

 

2.1

%

Texas

 

3,150

 

2.0

%

Massachusetts

 

2,810

 

1.8

%

Pennsylvania

 

2,219

 

1.4

%

New Jersey

 

1,992

 

1.3

%

Washington

 

1,932

 

1.3

%

Puerto Rico

 

1,891

 

1.2

%

Other states

 

19,589

 

12.7

%

Mortgage and structured (multiple states)

 

63,652

 

41.4

%

Total U.S.

 

$

117,796

 

76.6

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

International:

 

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom

 

$

21,689

 

14.1

%

Germany

 

2,989

 

1.9

%

Australia

 

1,866

 

1.2

%

Ireland

 

680

 

0.4

%

Turkey

 

620

 

0.4

%

Other

 

8,053

 

5.2

%

Total International

 

$

35,898

 

23.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

153,695

 

100.0

%

 

20



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (6 of 16)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution by Ratings of Pooled Corporate Obligations

 

 

 

September 30, 2007

 

December 31, 2006

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Ratings (1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

37,115

 

92.2

%

$

25,565

 

87.6

%

AA/Aa

 

3,082

 

7.7

%

3,473

 

11.9

%

A/A

 

6

 

 

75

 

0.3

%

BBB/Baa

 

17

 

 

17

 

0.1

%

Below investment grade

 

27

 

0.1

%

37

 

0.1

%

Total exposures

 

$

40,247

 

100.0

%

$

29,167

 

100.0

%

 

Distribution of Pooled Corporate Obligations by Year Insured as of September 30, 2007

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

 

 

 

 

Year insured:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000 and prior

 

$

66

 

0.2

%

 

 

 

 

2001

 

362

 

0.9

%

 

 

 

 

2002

 

699

 

1.7

%

 

 

 

 

2003

 

1,724

 

4.3

%

 

 

 

 

2004

 

1,399

 

3.5

%

 

 

 

 

2005

 

7,511

 

18.7

%

 

 

 

 

2006

 

13,699

 

34.0

%

 

 

 

 

2007 year to date

 

14,786

 

36.7

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

40,247

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

Distribution of Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class as of September 30, 2007

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Average

 

 

 

 

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Rating (1)

 

 

 

Asset class:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDO of CDOs

 

$

407

 

1.0

%

AAA

 

 

 

Investment grade corporates

 

4,484

 

11.1

%

AAA

 

 

 

Market value

 

3,782

 

9.4

%

AAA

 

 

 

Commercial real estate

 

739

 

1.8

%

AAA

 

 

 

High yield corporates

 

23,274

 

57.8

%

AAA

 

 

 

Trust preferred

 

7,560

 

18.8

%

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

$

40,247

 

100.0

%

AAA

 

 

 

 


(1)          Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

 

21



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (7 of 16)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution by Ratings(1) of Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Category as of September 30, 2007

 

 

 

September 30, 2007

 

 

 

US

 

International

 

Total Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Prime

 

Subprime

 

Prime

 

Subprime

 

Outstanding

 

% of Total

 

Ratings (1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

4,201

 

$

6,808

 

$

4,647

 

$

23

 

$

15,679

 

72.8

%

AA/Aa

 

510

 

15

 

177

 

17

 

719

 

3.3

%

A/A

 

1,194

 

17

 

198

 

 

1,410

 

6.5

%

BBB/Baa

 

3,300

 

230

 

99

 

 

3,629

 

16.9

%

Below investment grade

 

1

 

91

 

 

 

92

 

0.4

%

Total exposures

 

$

9,206

 

$

7,161

 

$

5,122

 

$

40

 

$

21,529

 

100.0

%

 

Distribution of Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Category and by Year Insured as of September 30, 2007

 

 

 

US

 

International

 

Total Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Prime

 

Subprime(2)

 

Prime

 

Subprime

 

Outstanding

 

% of Total

 

Year insured:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000 and prior

 

$

100

 

$

51

 

$

76

 

$

 

$

227

 

1.1

%

2001

 

15

 

18

 

214

 

 

248

 

1.2

%

2002

 

34

 

19

 

213

 

 

265

 

1.2

%

2003

 

94

 

340

 

82

 

38

 

554

 

2.6

%

2004

 

595

 

255

(2)

52

 

 

902

 

4.2

%

2005

 

1,837

 

108

(2)

1,296

 

 

3,241

 

15.1

%

2006

 

1,326

 

4,620

(2)

2,562

 

 

8,508

 

39.5

%

2007 year to date

 

5,206

 

1,749

(2)

627

 

2

 

7,584

 

35.2

%

 

 

$

9,206

 

$

7,161

 

$

5,122

 

$

40

 

$

21,529

 

100.0

%

 

Distribution of U.S. Subprime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Rating(1) and by Financial Guaranty Segment as of September 30, 2007

 

 

 

Direct

 

 

 

Reinsurance

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

Net Par

 

% of Direct

 

Net Par

 

% of Reins.

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Outstanding

 

Subprime

 

Outstanding

 

Segment

 

Outstanding

 

% of Total

 

Ratings (1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

6,614

 

96.1

%

$

194

 

69.3

%

$

6,808

 

95.1

%

AA/Aa

 

 

 

15

 

5.3

%

15

 

0.2

%

A/A

 

6

 

0.1

%

11

 

3.9

%

17

 

0.2

%

BBB/Baa

 

209

 

3.0

%

21

 

7.5

%

230

 

3.2

%

Below investment grade

 

52

 

0.8

%

39

 

14.0

%

91

 

1.3

%

 

 

$

6,880

 

100.0

%

$

280

 

100.0

%

$

7,161

 

100.0

%

 


(1)   Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

(2)   100% of the $6.5 billion in U.S. subprime RMBS exposure insured by Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s Financial Guaranty Direct segment in 2004, 2005, 2006, and YTD 2007 is rated AAA/Aaa.

 

22



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (8 of 16)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution of U.S. Subprime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of September 30, 2007

 

Consolidated Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

 

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

 

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

Year insured:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000 and prior

 

$

 

$

2

 

$

1

 

$

6

 

$

10

 

$

33

 

$

51

 

2001

 

 

1

 

0

 

0

 

2

 

15

 

18

 

2002

 

 

8

 

 

0

 

8

 

3

 

19

 

2003

 

 

84

 

 

8

 

209

 

40

 

340

 

2004

 

 

252

 

1

 

3

 

 

 

255

 

2005

 

 

108

 

0

 

0

 

0

 

 

108

 

2006

 

3,000

 

1,619

 

 

0

 

0

 

 

4,620

 

2007 YTD

 

609

 

1,126

 

13

 

 

1

 

 

1,749

 

 

 

$

3,609

 

$

3,199

 

$

15

 

$

17

 

$

230

 

$

91

 

$

7,161

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

50.4

%

44.7

%

0.2

%

0.2

%

3.2

%

1.3

%

100.0

%

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

 

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

 

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

Year insured:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000 and prior

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

2001

 

 

 

 

 

 

9

 

9

 

2002

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

 

3

 

2003

 

 

79

 

 

6

 

209

 

40

 

334

 

2004

 

 

193

 

 

 

 

 

193

 

2005

 

 

88

 

 

 

 

 

88

 

2006

 

3,000

 

1,600

 

 

 

 

 

4,600

 

2007 YTD

 

609

 

1,044

 

 

 

 

 

1,653

 

 

 

$

3,609

 

$

3,005

 

$

 

$

6

 

$

209

 

$

52

 

$

6,880

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

52.5

%

43.7

%

0.0

%

0.1

%

3.0

%

0.8

%

100.0

%

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

 

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

 

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

Year insured:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000 and prior

 

$

 

$

2

 

$

1

 

$

6

 

$

10

 

$

33

 

$

51

 

2001

 

 

1

 

0

 

0

 

2

 

6

 

9

 

2002

 

 

8

 

 

0

 

8

 

 

16

 

2003

 

 

5

 

 

2

 

 

0

 

7

 

2004

 

 

58

 

1

 

3

 

 

 

62

 

2005

 

 

20

 

0

 

0

 

0

 

 

20

 

2006

 

 

19

 

 

0

 

0

 

 

20

 

2007 YTD

 

 

82

 

13

 

 

1

 

 

96

 

 

 

$

 

$

194

 

$

15

 

$

11

 

$

21

 

$

39

 

$

280

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

0.0

%

69.3

%

5.3

%

3.9

%

7.5

%

14.0

%

100.0

%

 


(1)     Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

 

23



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (9 of 16)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution by Ratings(1) of Prime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities

 

 

 

September 30, 2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US

 

 

 

Total Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Prime

 

HELOC

 

Alt-A

 

International

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Ratings (1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

541

 

$

45

 

$

3,615

 

$

4,647

 

$

8,848

 

61.8

%

AA/Aa

 

498

 

12

 

 

177

 

687

 

4.8

%

A/A

 

653

 

12

 

529

 

198

 

1,393

 

9.7

%

BBB/Baa

 

845

 

2,454

 

 

99

 

3,399

 

23.7

%

Below investment grade

 

1

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

2,539

 

$

2,523

 

$

4,144

 

$

5,122

 

$

14,328

 

100.0

%

 

Distribution of U.S. Prime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Rating(1) as of September 30, 2007

 

 

 

Direct

 

 

 

Reinsurance

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Ratings (1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

4,002

 

51.4

%

$

199

 

14.0

%

$

4,201

 

45.6

%

AA/Aa

 

398

 

5.1

%

112

 

7.9

%

510

 

5.5

%

A/A

 

1,029

 

13.2

%

165

 

11.6

%

1,194

 

13.0

%

BBB/Baa

 

2,355

 

30.3

%

945

 

66.4

%

3,300

 

35.8

%

Below investment grade

 

 

 

1

 

0.1

%

1

 

 

 

 

$

7,784

 

100.0

%

$

1,422

 

100.0

%

$

9,206

 

100.0

%

 

Distribution of Prime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Year Insured as of September 30, 2007

 

 

 

US

 

 

 

Total Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Prime

 

HELOC

 

Alt-A

 

International

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Year insured:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000 and prior

 

$

98

 

$

2

 

$

 

$

76

 

$

176

 

1.2

%

2001

 

15

 

0

 

 

214

 

230

 

1.6

%

2002

 

15

 

18

 

 

213

 

246

 

1.7

%

2003

 

73

 

5

 

15

 

82

 

176

 

1.2

%

2004

 

145

 

267

 

183

 

52

 

647

 

4.5

%

2005

 

263

 

1,094

 

480

 

1,296

 

3,133

 

21.9

%

2006

 

1,012

 

240

 

73

 

2,562

 

3,888

 

27.1

%

2007 year to date

 

916

 

897

 

3,392

 

627

 

5,833

 

40.7

%

 

 

$

2,539

 

$

2,523

 

$

4,144

 

$

5,122

 

$

14,328

 

100.0

%

 


(1)    Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

 

24



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (10 of 16)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution of U.S. Prime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Rating (1), Exposure Type and Year Insured as of September 30, 2007

 

Prime RMBS Exposure

 

 

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

 

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

Year insured:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000 and prior

 

$

 

$

1

 

$

72

 

$

3

 

$

22

 

$

0

 

$

98

 

2001

 

 

11

 

 

2

 

3

 

0

 

15

 

2002

 

 

0

 

 

12

 

3

 

 

15

 

2003

 

 

4

 

 

70

 

 

 

73

 

2004

 

 

33

 

6

 

66

 

40

 

 

145

 

2005

 

 

242

 

12

 

 

9

 

 

263

 

2006

 

 

99

 

 

500

 

413

 

1

 

1,012

 

2007 YTD

 

 

153

 

407

 

 

356

 

 

916

 

 

 

$

 

$

541

 

$

498

 

$

653

 

$

845

 

$

1

 

$

2,539

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

0.0

%

21.3

%

19.6

%

25.7

%

33.3

%

0.0

%

100.0

%

 

Home Equity Line of Credit Exposure

 

 

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

 

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

Year insured:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000 and prior

 

$

 

$

 

$

1

 

$

1

 

$

0

 

$

 

$

2

 

2001

 

 

0

 

0

 

 

 

 

0

 

2002

 

 

1

 

8

 

1

 

8

 

 

18

 

2003

 

 

 

3

 

1

 

2

 

 

5

 

2004

 

 

44

 

 

 

223

 

 

267

 

2005

 

 

 

 

9

 

1,085

 

 

1,094

 

2006

 

 

 

 

 

240

 

 

240

 

2007 YTD

 

 

 

 

 

897

 

 

897

 

 

 

$

 

$

45

 

$

12

 

$

12

 

$

2,454

 

$

 

$

2,523

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

0.0

%

1.8

%

0.5

%

0.5

%

97.3

%

0.0

%

100.0

%

 

Alt-A Exposure

 

 

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

 

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

Year insured:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000 and prior

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

2001

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2002

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2003

 

 

15

 

 

 

 

 

15

 

2004

 

 

183

 

 

 

 

 

183

 

2005

 

 

480

 

 

 

 

 

480

 

2006

 

 

73

 

 

 

 

 

73

 

2007 YTD

 

113

 

2,750

 

 

529

 

 

 

3,392

 

 

 

$

113

 

$

3,502

 

$

 

$

529

 

$

 

$

 

$

4,144

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

2.7

%

84.5

%

0.0

%

12.8

%

0.0

%

0.0

%

100.0

%

 


(1)        Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

 

25



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (11 of 16)

(dollars in millions)

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Distribution of Credit Derivative Exposure by Rating

 

 

 

September 30, 2007

 

December 31, 2006

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Ratings (1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

59,158

 

97.0

%

$

45,901

 

94.4

%

AA/Aa

 

1,334

 

2.2

%

1,863

 

3.8

%

A/A

 

102

 

0.2

%

432

 

0.9

%

BBB/Baa

 

391

 

0.6

%

394

 

0.8

%

Below investment grade

 

29

 

 

51

 

0.1

%

Total exposures

 

$

61,015

 

100.0

%

$

48,641

 

100.0

%

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Distribution of Credit Derivative Exposure by Sector and Average Rating

 

 

 

September 30, 2007

 

December 31, 2006

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Average
Rating (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Average
Rating (1)

 

Sector:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

432

 

AAA

 

$

454

 

AAA

 

Tax backed

 

70

 

AAA

 

112

 

AAA

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

39

 

AAA

 

39

 

AAA

 

Municipal utilities

 

26

 

AAA

 

26

 

AAA

 

Healthcare

 

 

 

 

 

Higher education

 

 

 

 

 

Housing

 

 

 

 

 

Other public finance

 

 

 

 

 

Structured municipal

 

 

 

 

 

Transportation

 

 

 

 

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

567

 

AAA

 

$

630

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

$

27,379

 

AAA

 

$

21,099

 

AAA

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

5,861

 

AAA

 

5,023

 

AAA

 

Commercial receivables

 

5,703

 

AAA

 

5,999

 

AA

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

2,777

 

AAA

 

589

 

AAA

 

Other structured finance

 

1,087

 

AAA

 

2,315

 

AAA

 

Consumer receivables

 

313

 

AA

 

310

 

AAA

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

43,120

 

AAA

 

$

35,335

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

$

6,422

 

AAA

 

$

2,126

 

AAA

 

Pooled infrastructure

 

4,294

 

AAA

 

4,616

 

AAA

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

3,932

 

AAA

 

3,351

 

AA+

 

Other international structured finance

 

1,594

 

AAA

 

1,767

 

AAA

 

Infrastructure

 

490

 

AAA

 

311

 

AAA

 

Regulated utilities

 

450

 

AAA

 

259

 

AAA

 

Future flow

 

98

 

BBB+

 

158

 

A-

 

Insurance securitizations

 

41

 

BBB

 

41

 

A-

 

Public finance

 

9

 

AAA

 

49

 

A

 

Total international

 

$

17,328

 

AAA

 

$

12,676

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

61,015

 

AAA

 

$

48,641

 

AAA

 

 


(1) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

 

26



Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (12 of 16)

(dollars in millions)

 

Historical Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type

 

 

 

As of September 30,

 

As of December 31,

 

 

 

2007

 

2006

 

2005

 

 

 

Net Par 
Outstanding

 

Avg. 
Rating (8)

 

Net Par 
Outstanding

 

Avg.  
Rating (8)

 

Net Par  
Outstanding

 

Avg.  
Rating (8)

 

Sector:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

13,277

 

A+

 

$

12,700

 

A+

 

$

11,965

 

A+

 

Tax backed

 

11,881

 

A+

 

11,812

 

A+

 

10,671

 

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

9,294

 

A+

 

9,673

 

A+

 

10,378

 

A+

 

Healthcare

 

7,244

 

A

 

6,580

 

A

 

6,003

 

A

 

Transportation

 

6,978

 

A

 

6,302

 

A

 

6,407

 

A

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

1,684

 

A-

 

1,580

 

BBB+

 

1,431

 

A-

 

Higher education

 

1,447

 

A

 

1,282

 

A

 

1,177

 

A

 

Housing

 

988

 

AA-

 

1,083

 

AA-

 

1,148

 

AA-

 

Structured municipal (1)

 

597

 

AAA

 

578

 

AAA

 

829

 

AAA

 

Other public finance (2)

 

755

 

A

 

745

 

A

 

760

 

A

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

54,145

 

A+

 

$

52,335

 

A+

 

$

50,769

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations (3)

 

$

32,475

 

AAA

 

$

25,604

 

AAA

 

$

19,177

 

AAA

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity (4)

 

9,206

 

A+

 

4,849

 

A

 

5,451

 

A

 

Commercial receivables (5)

 

8,149

 

AA

 

7,879

 

AA

 

4,358

 

AA-

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity (4)

 

7,161

 

AAA

 

6,390

 

AA+

 

4,221

 

AA+

 

Consumer receivables (6)

 

4,152

 

AA+

 

2,663

 

AA-

 

2,413

 

A

 

Other structured finance (7)

 

2,509

 

AA

 

4,199

 

AA

 

2,958

 

AA

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

63,652

 

AA+

 

$

51,583

 

AA+

 

$

38,578

 

AA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations (3)

 

$

7,772

 

AAA

 

$

3,563

 

AAA

 

$

2,111

 

AAA

 

Regulated utilities

 

7,333

 

A-

 

4,780

 

A-

 

 

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity (4)

 

5,162

 

AAA

 

4,982

 

AAA

 

2,139

 

AA+

 

Infrastructure

 

4,517

 

A-

 

3,640

 

BBB+

 

3,461

 

A-

 

Pooled infrastructure

 

4,294

 

AAA

 

4,616

 

AAA

 

 

 

Other international structured finance

 

3,715

 

AA-

 

3,664

 

AA-

 

3,020

 

A

 

Public finance

 

1,415

 

AA-

 

1,202

 

A+

 

1,456

 

A

 

Future flow

 

862

 

BBB

 

1,008

 

BBB

 

931

 

BBB

 

Insurance securitizations

 

828

 

BBB+

 

923

 

A-

 

 

 

Total international

 

$

35,898

 

AA-

 

$

28,378

 

AA-

 

$

13,118

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

153,695

 

AA-

 

$

132,296

 

AA-

 

$

102,465

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage guaranty risk in force

 

$

1,374

 

N/A

 

$

1,822

 

N/A

 

$

2,332

 

N/A

 

 

Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio

 

 

 

September 30, 2007

 

December 31, 2006

 

December 31, 2005

 

 

 

Net Par 
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par 
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par 
Outstanding

 

%

 

Ratings (8):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

73,241

 

47.7

%

$

57,054

 

43.1

%

$

34,492

 

33.7

%

AA/Aa

 

25,101

 

16.3

%

22,983

 

17.4

%

19,978

 

19.5

%

A/A

 

33,143

 

21.6

%

32,822

 

24.9

%

30,258

 

29.5

%

BBB/Baa

 

21,424

 

13.9

%

18,182

 

13.7

%

16,404

 

16.0

%

Below investment grade

 

786

 

0.5

%

1,255

 

0.9

%

1,333

 

1.3

%

Total exposures

 

$

153,695

 

100.0

%

$

132,296

 

100.0

%

$

102,465

 

100.0

%

 


(1) Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

 

(2) Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

 

(3) Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

 

(4) Mortgage-backed and home equity: includes individual and repackaged mortgage-backed securities.

 

(5) Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

 

(6) Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

 

(7) Other structured finance: includes secured structured lending, manufactured housing, collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed securities and emerging markets.

 

(8) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

 

27



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (13 of 16)

(dollars in millions)

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Collateralized Debt Obligations of Asset-Backed Securities (CDOs of ABS)(1) Net Par Outstanding by Type of CDO, by Year Insured and by Collateral:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Type of Collateral as a Percent of Total Pool

 

Ratings as of Sept
30, 2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year
Insured

 

Legal
Final
Maturity(2)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

ABS

 

RMBS
(Includes
Subprime)

 

Comm.
MBS
(CMBS)

 

CDOs of
Investment
Grade
Corporate

 

CDOs of
ABS

 

Total
Collateral
Pool

 

U.S.
Subprime
RMBS

 

S&P

 

Moody’s

 

Original AAA
Sub-
ordination

 

Original Sub-
ordination
Below
Assured

 

Current Sub-
ordination
Below
Assured

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDOs of Mezzanine ABS(3):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2001

 

2017

 

$

120.6

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

25.1

%

25.1

%

29.5

%

2001

 

2016

 

64.0

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

28.1

%

28.1

%

37.9

%

2002

 

2017

 

153.3

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

24.6

%

24.6

%

29.9

%

2002

 

2017

 

121.6

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

22.1

%

22.1

%

25.9

%

2002

 

2017

 

100.2

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

35.0

%

35.0

%

44.6

%

2002

 

2017

 

74.2

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

24.0

%

24.0

%

30.2

%

2003

 

2018

 

130.7

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

20.0

%

20.0

%

23.8

%

2003

 

2038

 

88.3

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

23.0

%

38.0

%

46.3

%

2003

 

2018

 

52.4

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

63.0

%

63.0

%

66.1

%

2004

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2006

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 YTD

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Subtotal:

 

$

905.4

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

27.1

%

28.5

%

34.3

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDOs of High Grade ABS(4):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDOs of Pooled AAA ABS(5):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2003

 

2010

 

661.0

 

35

%

34

%

26

%

5

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

0.0

%

12.5

%

12.5

%

2003

 

2008

 

594.0

 

37

%

57

%

6

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

32

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

0.0

%

10.0

%

10.0

%

2004

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2006

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 YTD

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Subtotal:

 

$

1,255.0

 

36

%

45

%

17

%

3

%

0

%

100

%

15

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

0.0

%

11.3

%

11.3

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total:

 

 

 

$

2,160.4

 

21

%

26

%

52

%

2

%

0

%

100

%

9

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

11.4

%

18.5

%

21.0

%

 


(1) A “CDO of ABS” is a collateralized debt obligation (CDO) transaction whose collateral pool consists primarily of asset-backed securities (ABS), including mortgage-backed securities (MBS). ABS transactions securities generally represent an ownership interest in a trust that contains collateral supporting the notes. Those interests are divided into several tranches that can have varying levels of subordination, credit protection triggers and credit ratings.

 

(2) “Legal Final Maturity” represents the final date for payment specified in the transaction documents and does not take into account prepayments that shorten the expected maturity and weighted average life.

 

(3) “CDOs of Mezzanine ABS” is a market term that refers to transactions where the underlying collateral at issuance is comprised of mezzanine tranches rated BBB or lower. The collateral underlying Assured’s exposure to CDOs of Mezzanine ABS had weighted average ratings, based on rating information as of September 30, 2007, as follows: 18% AAA, 6% AA, 12% A, 46% BBB and 18% below investment grade (BIG).

 

(4) “CDOs of High Grade ABS” is a market term that refers to transactions where the underlying collateral at issuance is comprised of mezzanine tranches rated single A or higher.

 

(5) “CDOs of Pooled AAA ABS” is a market term that refers to transactions where the underlying collateral at issuance is comprised of the senior-most AAA rated securities. Assured’s exposure to CDOs of Pooled AAA ABS was rated, based on rating information as of September 30, 2007: 100% AAA/Aaa.

 

28



Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (14 of 16)

(dollars in millions)

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment Originated U.S. Subprime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Net Par Outstanding by Year Insured from January 1, 2004 to September 30, 2007:

 

 

 

 

 

Net Par 

 

Ratings as of 
September 30, 2007

 

Subordination(1)

 

Year Insured

 

Year Issued

 

Outstanding,
as of 
September 
30, 2007

 

S&P

 

Moody’s

 

Original AAA
Sub-
ordination

 

Original Sub-
ordination 
Below 
Assured

 

Current Sub-
ordination 
Below 
Assured

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

 

2004

 

$

17.2

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

23.3

%

23.3

%

96.0

%

2004

 

2004

 

89.8

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.5

%

21.5

%

81.3

%

2004

 

2004

 

86.4

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

17.1

%

17.1

%

76.5

%

2004 par insured:

 

 

 

$

193.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

 

2005

 

88.1

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

23.0

%

23.0

%

50.8

%

2005 par insured:

 

 

 

$

88.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2006

 

2005

 

$

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

24.2

%

34.2

%

50.4

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

19.0

%

29.0

%

44.2

%

2006

 

2006

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

22.5

%

32.5

%

49.1

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

20.1

%

30.1

%

49.3

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

25.5

%

35.5

%

56.4

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

20.7

%

30.7

%

53.5

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

22.1

%

32.1

%

41.4

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

24.6

%

34.6

%

67.9

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

26.5

%

36.5

%

55.6

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.2

%

31.2

%

49.4

%

2006

 

2006

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.4

%

31.4

%

40.4

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.9

%

31.9

%

76.8

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

22.6

%

32.6

%

65.8

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

20.1

%

30.1

%

41.6

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.8

%

31.8

%

67.7

%

2006

 

2006

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

26.0

%

36.0

%

49.5

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.7

%

31.7

%

61.2

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

22.9

%

32.9

%

58.2

%

2006

 

2006

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

20.6

%

30.6

%

39.7

%

2006

 

2006

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

22.6

%

32.6

%

38.9

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

23.6

%

33.6

%

53.4

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

20.6

%

30.6

%

43.7

%

2006

 

2006

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.7

%

31.7

%

42.7

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

23.6

%

33.6

%

56.8

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

18.2

%

28.2

%

52.1

%

2006

 

2006

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

16.4

%

26.4

%

35.8

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

17.6

%

27.6

%

45.3

%

2006

 

2006

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

25.7

%

35.7

%

47.5

%

2006

 

2005

 

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

25.7

%

35.7

%

56.1

%

 


(1) Subordination refers to the level of credit protection provided by subordinate tranches within the deal structure. Total credit enhancement includes both subordination and the benefit from excess spread.

 

29



Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (15 of 16)

(dollars in millions)

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment Originated U.S. Subprime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Net Par Outstanding by Year Insured from January 1, 2004 to September 30, 2007 (continued):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratings as of 
September 30, 2007

 

Subordination(1)

 

Year Insured

 

Year Issued

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

S&P

 

Moody’s

 

Original AAA
Sub-
ordination

 

Original Sub-
ordination
Below
Assured

 

Current Sub-
ordination 
Below 
Assured

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2006

 

2006

 

$

100.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.0

%

31.0

%

43.8

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

24.2

%

24.2

%

40.4

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

19.0

%

19.0

%

34.2

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

20.1

%

20.1

%

39.3

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

25.5

%

25.5

%

46.4

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

20.7

%

20.7

%

43.5

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

22.1

%

22.1

%

31.4

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

24.6

%

24.6

%

57.9

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.2

%

21.2

%

39.4

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.9

%

21.9

%

66.8

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

22.6

%

22.6

%

55.8

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

20.1

%

20.1

%

31.6

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.8

%

21.8

%

57.7

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.7

%

21.7

%

51.2

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

22.9

%

22.9

%

48.2

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

23.6

%

23.6

%

43.4

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

20.6

%

20.6

%

33.7

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

23.6

%

23.6

%

46.8

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

25.7

%

25.7

%

46.1

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

18.2

%

18.2

%

42.1

%

2006

 

2005

 

80.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

17.6

%

17.6

%

35.3

%

2006 par insured:

 

 

 

$

4,600.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007

 

2006

 

$

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.5

%

21.5

%

34.6

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

22.7

%

22.7

%

35.8

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

25.3

%

25.3

%

40.0

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

23.5

%

23.5

%

35.2

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

19.8

%

19.8

%

25.7

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

20.2

%

20.2

%

28.6

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

24.9

%

24.9

%

35.1

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

19.7

%

19.7

%

29.7

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

25.2

%

25.2

%

41.8

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

20.7

%

20.7

%

31.4

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.0

%

21.0

%

33.3

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

26.0

%

26.0

%

39.5

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

20.5

%

20.5

%

28.9

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

18.7

%

18.7

%

23.5

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

22.3

%

22.3

%

33.3

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

19.5

%

19.5

%

30.3

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

17.4

%

17.4

%

37.9

%

 


(1) Subordination refers to the level of credit protection provided by subordinate tranches within the deal structure.  Total credit enhancement includes both subordination and the benefit from excess spread.

 

30



Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (16 of 16)

(dollars in millions)

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment Originated U.S. Subprime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Net Par Outstanding by Year Insured from January 1, 2004 to September 30, 2007 (continued):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratings as of 
September 30, 2007

 

Subordination(1)

 

Year Insured

 

Year Issued

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

S&P

 

Moody’s

 

Original AAA
Sub-
ordination

 

Original Sub-
ordination
Below
Assured

 

Current Sub-
ordination 
Below 
Assured

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007

 

2006

 

$

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

17.4

%

17.4

%

24.1

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

22.1

%

22.1

%

32.5

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

22.1

%

22.1

%

31.5

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.2

%

21.2

%

27.2

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

18.6

%

18.6

%

22.1

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

23.9

%

23.9

%

27.2

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

26.0

%

26.0

%

31.7

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.5

%

21.5

%

28.5

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.7

%

21.7

%

27.0

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

20.2

%

20.2

%

24.5

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

19.2

%

19.2

%

22.2

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.8

%

21.8

%

28.5

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

23.4

%

23.4

%

30.4

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

20.2

%

20.2

%

24.4

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

17.6

%

17.6

%

20.8

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.4

%

21.4

%

26.3

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

23.2

%

23.2

%

26.7

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

22.1

%

22.1

%

26.6

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.7

%

21.7

%

26.0

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

21.6

%

21.6

%

24.6

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

22.0

%

22.0

%

28.8

%

2007

 

2005

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

18.7

%

18.7

%

22.2

%

2007

 

2006

 

25.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

22.5

%

22.5

%

27.9

%

2007

 

2007

 

44.0

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

20.3

%

20.3

%

23.3

%(3)

2007

 

2006

 

608.9

 

AAA

 

Aaa

 

29.9

%

39.9

%

39.9

%

YTD 2007 par insured:

 

$

1,652.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

$

6,534.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Subprime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Net Par Outstanding Underwritten Since January 1, 2004 by Rating(2) and Year of Issue as of September 30, 2007

 

Year

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

Issued

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

 

$

 

$

193.4

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

193.4

 

2005

 

2,100.2

 

1,713.1

 

 

 

 

 

3,813.3

 

2006

 

1,509.0

 

975.0

 

 

 

 

 

2,484.0

 

2007

 

 

44.0

 

 

 

 

 

44.0

 

 

 

$

3,609.2

 

$

2,925.5

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

6,534.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

55.2

%

44.8

%

0.0

%

0.0

%

0.0

%

0.0

%

100.0

%

 


(1) Subordination refers to the level of credit protection provided by subordinate tranches within the deal structure. Total credit enhancement includes both subordination and the benefit from excess spread.

 

(2) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

 

(3) This transaction is a secondary market execution on a deal that is wrapped by another AAA-rated financial guarantor. The underlying security is also rated AAA/Aaa.

 

31



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Non-Investment Grade Exposures

as of September 30, 2007

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Weighted Average

 

Net Par

 

Average

 

Non-Investment Grade Exposures by Asset Type:

 

Remaining Life

 

Outstanding

 

Rating (1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Transportation

 

20.5

 

$

190

 

B+

 

Tax backed

 

16.5

 

73

 

BB

 

Healthcare

 

11.6

 

56

 

B+

 

General obligation

 

9.2

 

35

 

BB+

 

Municipal utilities

 

10.5

 

13

 

C

 

Housing

 

13.5

 

4

 

B-

 

Higher education

 

13.4

 

1

 

BB+

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

10.0

 

 

BB

 

Structured municipal

 

 

 

 

Other public finance

 

 

 

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

16.9

 

$

371

 

B+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Commercial receivables

 

4.8

 

$

124

 

BB

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

7.9

 

91

 

CCC+

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

4.1

 

27

 

B

 

Consumer receivables

 

 

 

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

30.0

 

1

 

BB

 

Other structured finance

 

8.2

 

124

 

BB+

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

6.7

 

$

367

 

BB-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Infrastructure

 

11.8

 

$

47

 

BB

 

Other international structured finance

 

 

 

 

Pooled infrastructure

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

 

 

 

Total international

 

11.8

 

$

47

 

BB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total non-investment grade exposures

 

11.8

 

$

786

 

BB-

 

 

Top Ten Non-Investment Grade Exposures as of September 30, 2007

 

Name or Description

 

Weighted Average
Remaining Life

 

Net Par 
Outstanding

 

Average 
Rating (1)

 

Public Finance Infrastructure Transaction

 

21.1

 

$

165

 

BB-

 

Structured Finance Domestic Manufactured Housing Transactions(2)

 

6.9

 

114

 

BB+

 

Structured Finance Domestic Auto Fleet Financing Transaction

 

2.7

 

100

 

BB+

 

International Airport Facility

 

7.3

 

31

 

BB

 

Louisiana State Stadium & Exposition District

 

20.4

 

29

 

BB

 

New Orleans Louisiana Exhibit Hall - Morial

 

16.3

 

29

 

BB

 

Puerto Rico Public Finance Corporation

 

9.6

 

27

 

BB+

 

Structured Finance Domestic Franchise Loan Receivable Transactions(3)

 

13.5

 

24

 

B

 

Structured Finance Domestic Subprime Mortgage-backed Transaction

 

4.3

 

23

 

BB

 

Public Finance Domestic Transportation Transaction

 

17.2

 

22

 

D

 

Total

 

12.2

 

$

565

 

BB-

 

 


(1) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

 

(2) Exposure comprised of twelve series: 10 series totaling $111.6 million - rated ‘BB+’, $1.3 million rated ‘BB’, and $1.4 million rated ‘B’.

 

(3) Exposure comprised of two series: one in the amount of $12.6 million and the other for $11.5 million both rated ‘B’.

 

32



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Closely Monitored Credits (“CMC”)

(dollars in millions)

 

Net Par Outstanding by Credit Monitoring Category (1)

 

 

 

September 30, 2007

 

 

 

Net Par 
Outstanding

 

%

 

Number of Credits
in Category

 

Description:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fundamentally sound risk

 

$

152,877

 

99.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closely monitored credits:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Category 1

 

628

 

0.4

%

26

 

Category 2

 

68

 

 

15

 

Category 3

 

79

 

0.1

%

17

 

Category 4

 

22

 

 

16

 

CMC Total

 

797

 

0.5

%

74

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other below investment grade risk

 

21

 

 

49

 

Total

 

$

153,695

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

December 31, 2006

 

 

 

Net Par 
Outstanding

 

%

 

Number of Credits
in Category

 

Description:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fundamentally sound risk

 

$

130,944

 

99.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closely monitored credits:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Category 1

 

855

 

0.6

%

43

 

Category 2

 

318

 

0.2

%

13

 

Category 3

 

123

 

0.1

%

18

 

Category 4

 

22

 

 

13

 

CMC Total

 

1,318

 

1.0

%

87

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other below investment grade risk

 

34

 

 

68

 

Total

 

$

132,296

 

100.0

%

 

 

 


(1) Assured’s surveillance department is responsible for monitoring the Company’s portfolio of credits and maintains a list of closely monitored credits. The closely monitored credits are divided into four categories: Category 1 (low priority; fundamentally sound, greater than normal risk); Category 2 (medium priority; weakening credit profile, may result in loss); Category 3 (high priority; claim/default probable, case reserve established); Category 4 (claim paid, case reserve established for future payments). The closely monitored credits include all below investment grade (BIG) exposures where there is a material amount of exposure (generally greater than $10.0 million) or a material risk of the Company incurring a loss greater than $0.5 million. The closely monitored credits also include investment grade (IG) risks where credit quality is deteriorating and where, in the view of the Company, there is significant potential that the risk quality will fall below investment grade.

 

33



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 1 of 4)

as of September 30, 2007

(dollars in millions)

 

25 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Revenue Source:

 

Outstanding(2)

 

Rating(1)

 

State of California General Obligation & Leases

 

$

1,170

 

A+

 

City of Chicago General Obligation & Leases

 

723

 

AA-

 

New York City General Obligation & Leases

 

694

 

A+

 

Commonwealth of Massachusetts General Obligation & Bay Transportation

 

648

 

AA-

 

State of New Jersey General Obligation & Leases

 

637

 

AA-

 

Jefferson County, Alabama Sewer Enterprise

 

578

 

A

 

State of Washington General Obligation

 

562

 

AA

 

Commonwealth of Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases

 

557

 

BBB-

 

State of New York General Obligation & Leases

 

556

 

AA

 

Metropolitan Transportation Authority (New York) - Transportation Revenue

 

541

 

A

 

Puerto Rico Highway & Transportation Authority

 

541

 

BBB

 

New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority

 

491

 

AA

 

Long Island Power Authority

 

437

 

A-

 

Denver International Airport System

 

428

 

A

 

Los Angeles Unified School District

 

426

 

AA

 

City of Houston Water & Sewer System

 

421

 

A+

 

Port Authority of New York & New Jersey

 

420

 

AA-

 

Energy Northwest

 

413

 

AA

 

Louisiana Citizens Property Insurance Corporation

 

392

 

A-

 

San Francisco Airport Commission

 

377

 

A

 

Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority

 

372

 

BBB+

 

District of Columbia General Obligation

 

350

 

A

 

New Jersey Turnpike Authority

 

350

 

A

 

Massachusetts School Building Authority

 

327

 

AA

 

State of Florida General Obligation & Leases

 

318

 

AA

 

Total top 25 U.S. public finance exposures

 

$

12,730

 

 

 

 


(1) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

 

(2) Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.

 

34



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 2 of 4)

as of September 30, 2007

(dollars in millions)

 

25 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Outstanding(2)

 

Rating(1)

 

Revenue Source:

 

 

 

 

 

Private - Consumer ABS

 

$

1,200

 

AAA

 

Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2

 

1,153

 

AAA

 

Field Point III & IV, Limited

 

1,093

 

AA-

 

Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D

 

748

 

BBB

 

MortgageIT Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2

 

734

 

AAA

 

Private - CDO

 

709

 

AAA

 

Sandelman Finance 2006-1 Limited

 

663

 

AA

 

Private - CDO

 

660

 

AAA

 

McDonnell Loan Opportunity Fund

 

646

 

AAA

 

Private - RMBS

 

609

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG ABS

 

594

 

AAA

 

Field Point I & II, Limited

 

583

 

AA-

 

Private - Consumer ABS

 

550

 

AAA

 

Private - CDO

 

530

 

AAA

 

Impac CMB Trust Series 2007-A

 

529

 

A+

 

Private - Mortgage Backed Securities

 

500

 

A

 

Private - CDO

 

486

 

AAA

 

Private - CDO

 

468

 

AAA

 

Private - Consumer ABS

 

450

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

438

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

438

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

438

 

AAA

 

Ares Enhanced Credit Opportunities Fund

 

437

 

AAA

 

Private - Consumer ABS

 

420

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

410

 

AAA

 

Total top 25 U.S. structured finance exposures

 

$

15,485

 

 

 

 


(1) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

 

(2) Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.

 

35



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 3 of 4)

as of September 30, 2007

(dollars in millions)

 

10 Largest Healthcare Exposures

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Outstanding(2)

 

Rating(1)

 

State

 

Revenue Source:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Catholic Healthcare West

 

$

208

 

A

 

CA

 

Adventist / Sunbelt Health System

 

179

 

A+

 

FL

 

Covenant Health

 

177

 

A-

 

TN

 

Ascension Health Credit Group

 

144

 

AA

 

MO

 

Catholic Healthcare Partners

 

132

 

AA-

 

OH

 

W.A. Foote Memorial Hospital

 

125

 

A-

 

MI

 

Benefis Healthcare Foundation

 

125

 

A-

 

MT

 

Adventist Healthcare System West

 

119

 

A

 

CA

 

Sutter Health Obligated Group

 

115

 

AA-

 

CA

 

Medstar Health Inc.

 

109

 

BBB

 

MD

 

Total top 10 healthcare exposures

 

$

1,434

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10 Largest International Exposures

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Outstanding(2)

 

Rating(1)

 

 

 

Revenue Source:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Private - Mortgage Backed Securities

 

$

1,512

 

AAA

 

 

 

Graphite Mortgages PLC Provide Graphite 2005-2

 

1,271

 

AAA

 

 

 

Essential Public Infrastructure Capital II

 

1,053

 

AAA

 

 

 

Paragon Mortgages (No.13) PLC

 

1,029

 

AAA

 

 

 

International Infrastructure Pool

 

869

 

AAA

 

 

 

International Infrastructure Pool

 

869

 

AAA

 

 

 

International Infrastructure Pool

 

809

 

AAA

 

 

 

Nemus Funding No.1 PLC

 

719

 

AAA

 

 

 

Taberna Europe CDO II PLC

 

716

 

AAA

 

 

 

Stichting Profile Securitisation I

 

694

 

AAA

 

 

 

Total top 10 international exposures

 

$

9,542

 

 

 

 

 

 


(1) Assured internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

 

(2) Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.

 

36



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 4 of 4)

as of September 30, 2007

(dollars in millions)

 

10 Largest Mortgage Servicers (Prime and Subprime) Exposures

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Outstanding(1)

 

Revenue Source:

 

 

 

Countrywide Home Loans, Inc.

 

$

3,624

 

Residential Funding Corporation

 

2,086

 

Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, Inc.

 

1,799

 

European Mortgage Servicer (Private Transaction)

 

1,512

 

Northern Rock Plc

 

1,487

 

Paragon Finance Plc

 

1,029

 

AMC Mortgage Services

 

776

 

East West Bancorp. Inc.

 

741

 

Impac Funding Corporation

 

585

 

Aurora Loan Services, Inc.

 

490

 

Total top 10 mortgage servicers exposures

 

$

14,129

 

 


(1) Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.

 

37



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of September 30, 2007

 

As of December 31, 2006

 

 

 

Assured
Guaranty
Corp.

 

Assured
Guaranty Re
Ltd. (1)

 

Consolidated

 

Assured
Guaranty
Corp.

 

Assured
Guaranty Re
Ltd. (1)

 

Consolidated

 

Statutory surplus and reserves

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve (2)

 

$

276

 

$

473

 

$

749

 

$

239

 

$

444

 

$

683

 

Contingency reserve

 

700

 

 

700

 

631

 

 

631

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

251

 

796

 

1,047

 

286

 

741

 

1,027

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves (3)

 

16

 

21

 

37

 

15

 

18

 

33

 

Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves

 

$

1,243

 

$

1,290

 

$

2,533

 

$

1,171

 

$

1,203

 

$

2,374

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Claims paying resources

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

$

251

 

$

796

 

$

1,047

 

$

286

 

$

741

 

$

1,027

 

Contingency reserve

 

700

 

 

700

 

631

 

 

631

 

Qualified statutory capital

 

951

 

796

 

1,747

 

917

 

741

 

1,658

 

Unearned premium reserve (2)

 

276

 

473

 

749

 

239

 

444

 

683

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves (3)

 

16

 

21

 

37

 

15

 

18

 

33

 

Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves

 

1,243

 

1,290

 

2,533

 

1,171

 

1,203

 

2,374

 

Present value of installment premium (d)

 

459

 

234

 

692

 

356

 

230

 

586

 

Standby line of credit/stop loss

 

280

 

200

 

480

 

455

 

 

455

 

Total claims paying resources

 

$

1,982

 

$

1,724

 

$

3,705

 

$

1,982

 

$

1,433

 

$

3,415

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par insured outstanding

 

$

82,873

 

$

70,922

 

$

153,695

 

$

68,370

 

$

63,927

 

$

132,296

 

Net debt service outstanding

 

$

116,007

 

$

110,408

 

$

226,258

 

$

85,522

 

$

94,652

 

$

180,174

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par insured to statutory capital

 

87:1

 

89:1

 

88:1

 

75:1

 

86:1

 

80:1

 

Capital ratio (4)

 

122:1

 

139:1

 

130:1

 

93:1

 

128:1

 

109:1

 

Financial resources ratio (5)

 

59:1

 

64:1

 

61:1

 

43:1

 

66:1

 

53:1

 

 


(1) Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) numbers are the Company’s estimate of U.S. statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements.

 

(2) Unearned premium reserve for AG Re is U.S. GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums.

 

(3) Loss and loss adjustment reserves for AG Re are U.S. GAAP based and net of reinsurance recoverable and portfolio reserves.

 

(4) The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by qualified statutory capital.

 

(5) The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

38



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Summary Financial and Statistical Data

(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Year Ended December 31,

 

 

 

YTD 2007

 

2006

 

2005

 

2004

 

GAAP Summary Income Statement Data

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross premiums written

 

$

250.7

 

$

325.7

 

$

252.1

 

$

190.9

 

Net earned premiums

 

164.3

 

206.7

 

198.7

 

187.9

 

Net investment income

 

94.2

 

111.5

 

96.8

 

94.8

 

Total expenses

 

104.5

 

132.1

 

64.9

 

114.6

 

(Loss) income before provision for income taxes

 

(95.5

)

190.0

 

229.6

 

233.3

 

Net (loss) income

 

(43.2

)

159.7

 

188.4

 

182.8

 

Operating income

 

141.0

 

157.2

 

190.0

 

141.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net (loss) income per diluted share

 

$

(0.64

)

$

2.15

 

$

2.53

 

$

2.44

 

Operating income per diluted share

 

$

2.04

 

$

2.12

 

$

2.55

 

$

1.88

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

 

(6.2

)%

(3.3

)%

(35.0

)%

(17.0

)%

Expense ratio

 

57.8

%

59.2

%

58.9

%

65.4

%

Combined ratio

 

51.6

%

55.9

%

23.9

%

48.4

%

GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data (End of Period)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total investments and cash

 

$

2,639.2

 

$

2,469.9

 

$

2,256.0

 

$

2,157.9

 

Total assets

 

3,137.6

 

2,935.3

 

2,696.3

 

2,703.7

 

Unearned premium reserves

 

724.0

 

644.5

 

537.1

 

521.3

 

Loss and LAE reserves

 

113.9

 

120.6

 

128.4

 

236.2

 

Senior notes

 

197.4

 

197.4

 

197.3

 

197.4

 

Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures

 

149.7

 

149.7

 

 

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

1,604.4

 

1,650.8

 

1,661.5

 

1,527.6

 

Book value per share

 

$

23.69

 

$

24.44

 

$

22.22

 

$

20.19

 

Other Financial Information:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net debt service outstanding (end of period)

 

$

226,258

 

$

180,174

 

$

145,694

 

$

136,120

 

Gross debt service outstanding (end of period)

 

230,588

 

$

181,503

 

$

148,836

 

$

139,129

 

Net par outstanding (end of period)

 

153,695

 

132,296

 

102,465

 

95,592

 

Gross par outstanding (end of period)

 

157,476

 

133,303

 

105,258

 

98,221

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated qualified statutory capital

 

1,747

 

1,658

 

1,545

 

1,351

 

Consolidated policyholders’ surplus & reserves

 

2,533

 

2,374

 

2,182

 

1,990

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par insured to statutory capital

 

88:1

 

80:1

 

66:1

 

71:1

 

Capital ratio(1)

 

130:1

 

109:1

 

94:1

 

101:1

 

Financial resources ratio(2)

 

61:1

 

53:1

 

48:1

 

51:1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross debt service written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

11,564

 

$

13,261

 

$

13,335

 

$

11,943

 

U.S. structured finance

 

29,061

 

28,902

 

16,724

 

15,131

 

International

 

12,313

 

17,979

 

5,729

 

3,897

 

Total gross debt service written

 

$

52,938

 

$

60,142

 

$

35,788

 

$

30,970

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net debt service written

 

50,001

 

59,775

 

35,440

 

30,680

 

Net par written

 

36,279

 

50,541

 

26,020

 

23,125

 

Gross par written

 

38,992

 

50,892

 

26,320

 

23,375

 

 


(1) The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by qualified statutory capital.

 

(2) The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.

 

39



 

Endnotes related to non-GAAP financial measures discussed in the financial supplement:

 

(a) Present value of gross written premiums or PVP, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, on contracts written in the current period, discounted at 6% per year. Management believes that  PVP is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because it permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, which GAAP gross premiums written does not adequately measure. Actual future net earned or written premiums may differ from PVP due to factors such as prepayments, amortizations, refundings, contract terminations or defaults that may or may not be influenced by market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for gross written premiums determined in accordance with GAAP.

 

(b) Operating income, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as net income (loss) excluding after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments. Operating return on equity (ROE) represents operating income as a percentage of average shareholders’ equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income and the after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments. Management believes that operating income and operating ROE are useful measures for management, equity analysts and investors because the presentation of operating income and operating ROE enhance the understanding of Assured’s results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of Assured’s insurance business. Net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments are excluded because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, market interest rates, credit spreads, and other factors that management cannot control or predict. These measures should not be viewed as substitutes for net income (loss) or ROE determined in accordance with GAAP.

 

(c) Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as shareholders’ equity (book value) plus the after-tax value of the unearned premium reserve net of prepaid reinsurance premiums, plus the net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, less future ceding commissions, after tax discounted at 6%, less deferred acquisition costs, after tax. Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because the calculation of adjusted book value permits an evaluation of the net present value of the Company’s in-force premiums and capital base. The premiums described above will be earned in future periods, but may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for book value determined in accordance with GAAP.

 

(d) Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as the present value of estimated future installment premiums from our in-force book of business, net of reinsurance and discounted at 6%. Management believes that net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because it permits an evaluation of the value of future estimated installment premiums. Estimated future premiums may change from period to period due to changes in par outstanding, maturity, or other factors that management cannot control or predict that result from market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors. There is no comparable GAAP financial measure.

 

For adjusted book value, net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, and PVP, Assured uses 6% as the present value discount rate because it is the approximate taxable equivalent yield on Assured’s investment portfolio for the periods presented.

 



 

 

 

 

Contacts:

 

 

 

 

 

Equity Investors and Media

 

 

Sabra Purtill

 

 

Managing Director, Investor Relations

 

 

and Strategic Planning

 

 

(212) 408-6044

 

 

spurtill@assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

 

 

Chris McNamee

 

 

Vice President, Investor Relations

 

 

(212) 261-5509

 

 

cmcnamee@assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

Fixed Income Investors

30 Woodbourne Avenue

 

Michael Walker

Hamilton HM 08

 

Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations

Bermuda

 

(212) 261-5575

www.assuredguaranty.com

 

mwalker@assuredguaranty.com