EX-99.2 3 a07-5896_5ex99d2.htm EX-99.2

Exhibit 99.2

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Supplement

First Quarter 2007

March 31, 2007

 

 

Table of Contents

 

 

 

Page

 

 

 

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Selected Financial Highlights

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

 

 

 

2

 

 

 

 

Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

 

 

 

3

 

 

 

 

Segment Consolidation

 

 

 

4

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment

 

 

 

5-6

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment

 

 

 

7-8

 

 

 

 

Mortgage Guaranty Segment

 

 

 

9

 

 

 

 

Other Segment

 

 

 

10

 

 

 

 

Loss and LAE Reserves and Analysis of Net Claims Paid

 

 

 

11

 

 

 

 

Investment Portfolio

 

 

 

12

 

 

 

 

Estimated Net Exposure Amortization

 

 

 

13

 

 

 

 

Estimated Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Future Installment Premiums

 

 

 

14

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Profile

 

 

 

15-21

 

 

 

 

Non-Investment Grade Exposures

 

 

 

22

 

 

 

 

Closely Monitored Credits

 

 

 

23

 

 

 

 

Largest Exposures by Sector

 

 

 

24-27

 

 

 

 

Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources

 

 

 

28

 

 

 

 

Summary Financial and Statistical Data

 

 

 

29

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (the “Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our 10-Q’s dated March 31, 2006, June 30, 2006, September 30, 2006 and our 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2006.

 

Some amounts in this Financial Supplement may not add due to rounding.

 

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:

Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, the Company’s forward looking statements, including its calculations of adjusted book value, PVP, net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, total estimated net future premium earnings, and statements regarding ratings improvement and the growth of the direct business could be affected by many events. These events include a significant reduction in the amount of reinsurance ceded by one or more of our principal ceding companies, rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy, contract cancellations, developments in the world’s financial and capital markets, more severe or frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserve, changes in regulation or tax laws, governmental actions, natural catastrophes, the Company’s dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, technological developments, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, changes in general economic conditions, other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time, management’s response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Selected Financial Highlights

(dollars and shares in millions except per share amounts)

 

 

Quarter Ended

 

% Change

 

 

 

March 31,

 

versus

 

 

 

2007

 

2006

 

1Q-06

 

Gross written premiums (GWP) analysis:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Present value of GWP (PVP)(a)

 

$

106.7

 

$

61.8

 

73

%

Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP

 

77.2

 

44.2

 

75

%

Upfront financial guaranty GWP

 

29.5

 

17.6

 

68

%

Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP

 

38.7

 

31.4

 

23

%

Financial guaranty GWP

 

68.2

 

49.0

 

39

%

Plus: Mortgage guaranty segment GWP

 

1.0

 

2.6

 

(62

)%

Plus: Other segment GWP

 

3.3

 

3.8

 

(13

)%

Total GWP

 

$

72.5

 

$

55.4

 

31

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

39.0

 

$

34.9

 

12

%

Less: After-tax realized losses on investments

 

(0.2

)

(0.6

)

(67

)%

Less: After-tax unrealized losses on derivatives

 

(6.9

)

(0.1

)

NM

 

Operating income(b)

 

$

46.1

 

$

35.6

 

29

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

1,694.3

 

$

1,673.4

 

1

%

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve, after tax(1)

 

570.7

 

452.1

 

26

%

Plus: Net present value of estimate future installment premiums in-force, after tax(d)

 

456.6

 

340.6

 

34

%

Less: Deferred acquisition costs (DAC), after tax

 

194.6

 

167.2

 

16

%

Adjusted book value(c)

 

$

2,527.0

 

$

2,298.9

 

10

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ROE, excluding AOCI

 

9.6

%

8.5

%

 

 

Less: After-tax realized losses on investments

 

(0.1

)%

(0.2

)%

 

 

Less: After-tax unrealized losses on derivatives

 

(1.7

)%

 

 

 

Operating ROE, excluding AOCI(b)

 

11.3

%

8.7

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per diluted share:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

0.57

 

$

0.47

 

21

%

Less: After-tax realized losses on investments

 

 

(0.01

)

 

Less: After-tax unrealized losses on derivatives

 

(0.10

)

 

 

Operating income(b)

 

$

0.67

 

$

0.48

 

40

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

25.04

 

$

22.67

 

10

%

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve, after tax (1)

 

8.43

 

6.13

 

38

%

Plus: Net present value of estimate future installment premiums in-force, after tax(d)

 

6.75

 

4.62

 

46

%

Less: DAC, after tax

 

2.88

 

2.27

 

27

%

Adjusted book value(c)

 

$

37.34

 

$

31.15

 

20

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Additional information:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shares outstanding at the end of period(2)

 

67.7

 

73.8

 

(8

)%

Weighted average basic shares outstanding

 

67.6

 

73.8

 

(8

)%

Weighted average diluted shares outstanding

 

68.8

 

74.9

 

(8

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated net debt service outstanding

 

$

186,852

 

$

150,631

 

24

%

Consolidated net par outstanding

 

138,853

 

106,917

 

30

%

Consolidated claims-paying resources

 

3,466

 

3,125

 

11

%

Gross par written

 

10,362

 

8,129

 

27

%


1.                  Unearned premium reserve (UPR) less pre-paid reinsurance premiums, after tax.

2.                  3/31/07 shares outstanding excludes 1.4 million of nonvested restricted stock and 3/31/06 shares outstanding excludes 1.4 million of nonvested restricted stock, which is considered not issued under FAS 123R.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

NM = Not meaningful

1




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

(dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

Quarter Ended

 

% Change

 

 

 

March 31,

 

versus

 

 

 

2007

 

2006

 

1Q-06

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

72.5

 

$

55.4

 

31

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net written premiums

 

68.4

 

50.8

 

35

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

53.9

 

48.1

 

12

%

Net investment income

 

31.5

 

26.2

 

20

%

Total revenues

 

85.4

 

74.3

 

15

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(4.7

)

(0.4

)

NM

 

Profit commission expense

 

1.6

 

1.3

 

23

%

Acquisition costs

 

10.8

 

10.8

 

0

%

Other operating expenses

 

20.7

 

17.2

 

20

%

Interest and related expenses

 

6.6

 

4.0

 

65

%

Total expenses

 

35.0

 

32.9

 

6

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income before provision for income taxes

 

50.4

 

41.4

 

22

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total provision for income taxes

 

4.3

 

5.8

 

(26

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income(b)

 

46.1

 

35.6

 

29

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After-tax realized losses on investments

 

(0.2

)

(0.6

)

(67

)%

After-tax unrealized losses on derivatives

 

(6.9

)

(0.1

)

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

39.0

 

$

34.9

 

12

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per diluted share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

0.67

 

$

0.48

 

40

%

After-tax realized losses on investments

 

 

(0.01

)

 

After-tax unrealized losses on derivatives

 

(0.10

)

 

 

Net income

 

$

0.57

 

$

0.47

 

21

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Effect of refundings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Earned premiums from refundings

 

$

4.9

 

$

3.6

 

36

%

Net income effect

 

$

2.0

 

$

1.6

 

25

%

Net income per diluted share effect

 

$

0.03

 

$

0.02

 

50

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weighted average shares outstanding

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Basic shares outstanding

 

67.6

 

73.8

 

(8

)%

Plus: effect of options

 

0.6

 

0.6

 

0

%

Plus: effect of restricted stock

 

0.6

 

0.5

 

20

%

Diluted shares outstanding

 

68.8

 

74.9

 

(8

)%


Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

NM = Not meaningful

2




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of :

 

 

 

March 31,

 

December 31,

 

 

 

2007

 

2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assets

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed maturity securities, at fair value

 

$

2,391.7

 

$

2,331.1

 

Short-term investments, at cost which approximates fair value

 

96.7

 

134.1

 

Total investments

 

2,488.4

 

2,465.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash and cash equivalents

 

5.7

 

4.8

 

Accrued investment income

 

23.6

 

24.2

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

220.4

 

217.0

 

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

9.5

 

7.5

 

Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses

 

10.6

 

10.9

 

Premiums receivable

 

36.2

 

41.6

 

Goodwill

 

85.4

 

85.4

 

Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments

 

45.6

 

52.6

 

Other assets

 

27.6

 

26.2

 

Total assets

 

$

2,953.1

 

$

2,935.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserves

 

$

661.0

 

$

644.5

 

Reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

121.0

 

120.6

 

Profit commissions payable

 

16.8

 

36.0

 

Reinsurance balances payable

 

2.7

 

7.2

 

Current income taxes payable

 

6.5

 

7.2

 

Deferred income taxes

 

21.1

 

39.9

 

Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts

 

24.7

 

21.4

 

Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments

 

9.4

 

6.7

 

Senior Notes

 

197.4

 

197.4

 

Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures

 

149.7

 

149.7

 

Liability for tax basis step-up adjustment

 

10.5

 

15.0

 

Other liabilities

 

38.0

 

39.0

 

Total liabilities

 

1,258.8

 

1,284.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Common stock

 

0.7

 

0.7

 

Additional paid-in capital

 

716.6

 

711.3

 

Retained earnings

 

935.7

 

896.9

 

Accumulated other comprehensive income

 

41.3

 

41.9

 

Total shareholders’ equity

 

1,694.3

 

1,650.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

$

2,953.1

 

$

2,935.3

 

 

3




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Segment Consolidation

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended March 31, 2007

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP):(a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

8.8

 

$

4.7

 

$

 

$

13.6

 

 

 

$

13.6

 

U.S. structured finance

 

44.9

 

3.9

 

 

48.9

 

 

 

48.9

 

International

 

29.9

 

14.4

 

 

44.3

 

 

 

44.3

 

Total PVP

 

$

83.7

 

$

23.1

 

$

 

$

106.7

 

 

 

$

106.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

49.5

 

$

18.7

 

$

1.0

 

$

69.2

 

$

3.3

 

$

72.5

 

Net written premiums

 

48.9

 

18.5

 

1.0

 

68.4

 

 

68.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

28.9

 

21.9

 

3.1

 

53.9

 

 

53.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

1.2

 

(4.8

)

0.1

 

(3.5

)

(1.3

)

(4.7

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

0.9

 

0.7

 

1.6

 

 

1.6

 

Acquisition costs

 

3.0

 

7.7

 

0.2

 

10.8

 

 

10.8

 

Operating expenses

 

15.9

 

4.4

 

0.3

 

20.7

 

 

20.7

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

20.1

 

$

8.3

 

$

1.3

 

$

29.7

 

$

(1.3

)

$

28.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

8.8

 

$

13.6

 

$

1.8

 

$

24.2

 

$

1.3

 

$

25.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

4.2

%

(21.9

)%

3.3

%

(6.5

)%

 

 

(8.8

)%

Expense ratio

 

65.4

%

59.6

%

37.8

%

61.5

%

 

 

61.5

%

Combined ratio

 

69.6

%

37.7

%

41.1

%

55.0

%

 

 

52.7

%

 

 

 

Quarter Ended March 31, 2006

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

8.5

 

$

8.5

 

$

 

$

16.9

 

 

 

$

16.9

 

U.S. structured finance

 

27.6

 

3.4

 

 

30.9

 

 

 

30.9

 

International

 

5.6

 

8.3

 

 

13.9

 

 

 

13.9

 

Total PVP

 

$

41.6

 

$

20.1

 

$

 

$

61.8

 

 

 

$

61.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

30.2

 

$

18.8

 

$

2.6

 

$

51.6

 

$

3.8

 

$

55.4

 

Net written premiums

 

29.7

 

18.5

 

2.6

 

50.8

 

 

50.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

20.7

 

23.3

 

4.2

 

48.1

 

 

48.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(1.8

)

2.8

 

(0.2

)

0.8

 

(1.2

)

(0.4

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

0.4

 

0.9

 

1.3

 

 

1.3

 

Acquisition costs

 

1.8

 

8.7

 

0.3

 

10.8

 

 

10.8

 

Operating expenses

 

13.4

 

3.4

 

0.3

 

17.2

 

 

17.2

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

13.5

 

$

15.3

 

$

1.3

 

$

30.2

 

$

(1.2

)

$

29.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

7.2

 

$

8.0

 

$

2.8

 

$

18.0

 

$

1.2

 

$

19.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(8.7

)%

12.0

%

(3.7

)%

1.8

%

 

 

(0.7

)%

Expense ratio

 

73.8

%

53.6

%

36.1

%

61.1

%

 

 

61.1

%

Combined ratio

 

65.1

%

65.6

%

32.4

%

62.9

%

 

 

60.4

%

 

1.                  Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.  PVP for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on facultative business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a current quarter basis effective Q1 2006.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

4




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

1Q-07

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP)(a)

 

$

41.6

 

$

98.8

 

$

90.9

 

$

70.8

 

$

83.7

 

Less: Present value of installment premiums(a)

 

33.2

 

53.1

 

69.4

 

48.6

 

63.0

 

Upfront gross written premiums (GWP)

 

8.5

 

45.7

 

21.5

 

22.2

 

20.7

 

Plus: Installment GWP

 

21.8

 

22.7

 

20.4

 

26.5

 

28.8

 

Financial guaranty direct GWP

 

$

30.2

 

$

68.4

 

$

41.9

 

$

48.7

 

$

49.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

30.2

 

$

68.4

 

$

41.9

 

$

48.7

 

$

49.5

 

Net written premiums

 

29.7

 

67.8

 

41.5

 

48.0

 

48.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scheduled net earned premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

0.9

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.3

 

U.S. structured finance

 

18.6

 

18.8

 

18.1

 

19.8

 

21.3

 

International

 

1.2

 

1.4

 

2.7

 

5.3

 

4.6

 

Total scheduled net earned premiums

 

20.7

 

21.2

 

21.8

 

26.0

 

27.2

 

Net earned premiums from refundings

 

 

 

 

 

1.7

 

Total net earned premiums

 

20.7

 

21.2

 

21.8

 

26.0

 

28.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

(2.0

)

(0.4

)

(0.3

)

0.9

 

0.2

 

Portfolio

 

0.2

 

(2.1

)

 

1.7

 

1.0

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(1.8

)

(2.5

)

(0.3

)

2.6

 

1.2

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs

 

1.8

 

2.3

 

2.1

 

2.2

 

3.0

 

Operating expenses

 

13.4

 

12.0

 

12.2

 

14.7

 

15.9

 

Total expenses

 

$

13.5

 

$

11.8

 

$

14.0

 

$

19.5

 

$

20.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

7.2

 

$

9.4

 

$

7.7

 

$

6.5

 

$

8.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(8.7

)%

(11.7

)%

(1.3

)%

10.0

%

4.2

%

Expense ratio

 

73.8

%

67.4

%

65.7

%

65.1

%

65.4

%

Combined ratio

 

65.1

%

55.7

%

64.4

%

75.1

%

69.6

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

5




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

1Q-07

 

PVP (a):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

8.5

 

$

6.0

 

$

8.2

 

$

13.0

 

$

8.8

 

U.S. structured finance

 

27.6

 

41.0

 

45.7

 

32.5

 

44.9

 

International

 

5.6

 

51.8

 

36.9

 

25.3

 

29.9

 

Total

 

$

41.6

 

$

98.8

 

$

90.9

 

$

70.8

 

$

83.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

283

 

$

326

 

$

423

 

$

628

 

$

609

 

U.S. structured finance

 

4,446

 

10,943

 

4,968

 

6,486

 

5,776

 

International

 

648

 

2,210

 

5,375

 

5,007

 

2,190

 

Total

 

$

5,377

 

$

13,479

 

$

10,766

 

$

12,121

 

$

8,575

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

3,250

 

$

2,471

 

$

2,878

 

$

3,499

 

$

3,989

 

U.S. structured finance

 

31,559

 

38,847

 

39,191

 

44,467

 

48,430

 

International

 

7,215

 

9,806

 

14,865

 

19,868

 

21,319

 

Total

 

$

42,024

 

$

51,124

 

$

56,935

 

$

67,834

 

$

73,738

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net present value of installment premiums in force:(d)

 

$

265.7

 

$

300.5

 

$

358.4

 

$

408.2

 

$

425.3

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

48.6

 

95.2

 

114.9

 

136.8

 

156.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

6




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

1Q-07

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP)(a)

 

$

20.1

 

$

49.6

 

$

36.5

 

$

45.2

 

$

23.1

 

Less: Present value of installment premiums(a)

 

11.0

 

17.7

 

16.8

 

20.8

 

14.2

 

Upfront gross written premiums (GWP)

 

9.1

 

31.9

 

19.8

 

24.4

 

8.9

 

Plus: Installment GWP

 

9.7

 

9.8

 

9.9

 

9.3

 

9.8

 

Financial guaranty reinsurance GWP

 

$

18.8

 

$

41.7

 

$

29.7

 

$

33.7

 

$

18.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Treaty

 

$

12.0

 

$

29.1

 

$

22.4

 

$

19.0

 

$

14.2

 

Facultative

 

6.8

 

12.6

 

7.3

 

14.7

 

4.5

 

Total gross written premiums

 

$

18.8

 

$

41.7

 

$

29.7

 

$

33.7

 

$

18.7

 

Net written premiums

 

18.5

 

41.3

 

29.7

 

33.7

 

18.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scheduled net earned premiums

 

19.7

 

21.4

 

21.3

 

20.8

 

18.7

 

Net earned premiums from refundings

 

3.6

 

1.7

 

4.1

 

1.8

 

3.2

 

Total net earned premiums

 

23.3

 

23.1

 

25.4

 

22.6

 

21.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

2.3

 

1.8

 

(1.2

)

2.4

 

(7.3

)

Portfolio

 

0.5

 

3.9

 

3.0

 

0.4

 

2.5

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

2.8

 

5.7

 

1.8

 

2.8

 

(4.8

)

Profit commission expense

 

0.4

 

1.0

 

0.7

 

0.6

 

0.9

 

Acquisition costs

 

8.7

 

8.5

 

8.9

 

7.9

 

7.7

 

Operating expenses

 

3.4

 

3.4

 

3.9

 

3.8

 

4.4

 

Total expenses

 

$

15.3

 

$

18.5

 

$

15.3

 

$

15.2

 

$

8.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

8.0

 

$

4.6

 

$

10.1

 

$

7.4

 

$

13.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

12.0

%

24.6

%

7.1

%

12.6

%

(21.9

)%

Expense ratio

 

53.6

%

55.4

%

53.3

%

54.7

%

59.6

%

Combined ratio

 

65.6

%

80.0

%

60.4

%

67.3

%

37.7

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


1.  Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.  PVP for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on facultative business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a current quarter basis effective Q1 2006.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

7




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment 1 (2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

1Q-07

 

PVP (a):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

8.5

 

$

29.7

 

$

11.4

 

$

30.4

 

$

4.7

 

U.S. structured finance

 

3.4

 

2.0

 

3.8

 

4.5

 

3.9

 

International

 

8.3

 

17.9

 

21.4

 

10.4

 

14.4

 

Total

 

$

20.1

 

$

49.6

 

$

36.5

 

$

45.2

 

$

23.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

1,631

 

$

718

 

$

1,475

 

$

1,367

 

$

754

 

U.S. structured finance

 

444

 

311

 

453

 

127

 

496

 

International

 

677

 

775

 

800

 

371

 

537

 

Total

 

$

2,752

 

$

1,804

 

$

2,727

 

$

1,865

 

$

1,787

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

48,309

 

$

48,316

 

$

48,335

 

$

48,836

 

$

48,929

 

U.S. structured finance

 

9,387

 

8,314

 

8,046

 

7,116

 

6,945

 

International

 

7,196

 

7,857

 

8,263

 

8,510

 

9,240

 

Total

 

$

64,893

 

$

64,487

 

$

64,644

 

$

64,462

 

$

65,115

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net present value of installment premiums in force(d)

 

$

153.8

 

$

158.9

 

$

164.5

 

$

164.9

 

$

160.2

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

431.2

 

449.4

 

453.8

 

464.8

 

460.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


1.  Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.  PVP for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on facultative business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a current quarter basis effective Q1 2006.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

8




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Mortgage Guaranty Segment

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

1Q-07

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

2.6

 

$

1.2

 

$

1.9

 

$

2.7

 

$

1.0

 

Net written premiums

 

2.6

 

1.2

 

1.9

 

2.7

 

1.0

 

Net earned premiums

 

4.2

 

3.7

 

4.9

 

9.9

 

3.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

(0.1

)

 

Portfolio and IBNR

 

(0.2

)

0.3

 

0.3

 

(4.9

)

0.1

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(0.2

)

0.4

 

0.4

 

(5.0

)

0.1

 

Profit commission expense

 

0.9

 

0.7

 

0.9

 

4.3

 

0.7

 

Acquisition costs

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

1.3

 

0.2

 

Operating expenses

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.4

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

Total expenses

 

$

1.3

 

$

1.7

 

$

2.0

 

$

0.9

 

$

1.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

2.8

 

$

2.0

 

$

2.9

 

$

8.9

 

$

1.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(3.7

)%

9.4

%

8.2

%

(50.7

)%

3.3

%

Expense ratio

 

36.1

%

36.4

%

31.9

%

60.2

%

37.8

%

Combined ratio

 

32.4

%

45.8

%

40.1

%

9.5

%

41.1

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Risk in force

 

$

1,970

 

$

1,960

 

$

2,003

 

$

1,822

 

$

1,374

 

Risk written

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

48.1

 

45.6

 

42.6

 

35.4

 

33.5

 

 

9




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Other Segment

(dollars in millions)

 

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

1Q-07

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

3.8

 

$

0.1

 

$

0.1

 

$

0.1

 

$

3.3

 

Net written premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(1.2

)

(10.1

)

(1.0

)

(1.2

)

(1.3

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total expenses

 

$

(1.2

)

$

(10.1

)

$

(1.0

)

$

(1.2

)

$

(1.3

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

1.2

 

$

10.1

 

$

1.0

 

$

1.2

 

$

1.3

 

 

10




Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Loss and LAE Reserves by Segment/Type and Analysis of Net Claims Paid
(dollars in millions)

 

 

As of March 31, 2007

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

Reserves by segment and type:

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Case

 

$

1.2

 

$

32.9

 

$

0.1

 

$

34.2

 

$

6.6

 

$

40.8

 

IBNR

 

 

 

 

 

7.4

 

7.4

 

Portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits

 

6.2

 

28.6

 

2.3

 

37.1

 

 

37.1

 

Portfolio reserves associated with CMC credits

 

3.1

 

32.6

 

 

35.7

 

 

35.7

 

Total

 

$

10.5

 

$

94.1

 

$

2.4

 

$

107.0

 

$

14.0

 

$

121.0

 

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2006

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

Reserves by segment and type:

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Case

 

$

1.0

 

$

36.1

 

$

0.1

 

$

37.2

 

$

6.8

 

$

44.0

 

IBNR

 

 

 

 

 

7.4

 

7.4

 

Portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits

 

6.1

 

29.1

 

2.2

 

37.4

 

 

37.4

 

Portfolio reserves associated with CMC credits

 

2.2

 

29.6

 

 

31.8

 

 

31.8

 

Total

 

$

9.3

 

$

94.8

 

$

2.3

 

$

106.4

 

$

14.2

 

$

120.6

 

 

Analysis of net claims paid

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Full Year

 

Full Year

 

 

 

1Q-07

 

1Q-06

 

2006

 

2005

 

Net claims paid by segment:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

$

(1.3

)

$

2.0

 

$

1.7

 

$

4.7

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

(4.2

)

1.4

 

11.7

 

(66.6

)

Mortgage Guaranty

 

 

0.1

 

0.3

 

0.5

 

Total Financial Guaranty

 

$

(5.5

)

$

3.5

 

$

13.7

 

$

(61.4

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums by segment:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

$

28.9

 

$

20.7

 

$

89.7

 

$

74.5

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

21.9

 

23.3

 

94.4

 

105.6

 

Mortgage Guaranty

 

3.1

 

4.2

 

22.7

 

18.6

 

Total Financial Guaranty

 

$

53.9

 

$

48.1

 

$

206.7

 

$

198.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratio of net claims paid by segment:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

(4.5

)%

9.7

%

1.9

%

6.3

%

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

(19.2

)%

6.0

%

12.4

%

(63.1

)%

Mortgage Guaranty

 

0.0

%

2.4

%

1.3

%

2.7

%

Total Financial Guaranty

 

(10.2

)%

7.3

%

6.6

%

(30.9

)%

 

11




Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Investment Portfolio
as of March 31, 2007
(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

Pre-Tax

 

After-Tax

 

 

 

Annualized

 

 

 

Amortized

 

Book

 

Book

 

 

 

Investment

 

 

 

Cost

 

Yield

 

Yield

 

Fair Value

 

Income

 

Fixed maturity securities available for sale:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies

 

$

144.5

 

4.9%

 

4.2%

 

$

146.7

 

$

7.0

 

Agency obligations

 

133.1

 

5.5%

 

5.1%

 

136.5

 

7.3

 

Foreign government securities

 

47.9

 

4.9%

 

3.2%

 

47.4

 

2.3

 

Obligations of states and political subdivisions

 

379.2

 

4.7%

 

4.4%

 

391.9

 

17.7

 

Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions

 

511.5

 

4.9%

 

4.6%

 

538.1

 

25.1

 

Corporate securities

 

136.9

 

5.6%

 

4.7%

 

139.6

 

7.7

 

Mortgage-backed securities:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pass-thrus

 

742.1

 

5.4%

 

4.6%

 

739.5

 

39.9

 

PACs

 

76.6

 

4.8%

 

4.5%

 

75.6

 

3.7

 

Asset-backed securities

 

176.5

 

5.0%

 

4.6%

 

176.4

 

8.9

 

Total fixed maturity securities available for sale

 

2,348.3

 

5.1%

 

4.6%

 

2,391.7

 

119.6

 

Short-term investments

 

96.7

 

4.5%

 

3.4%

 

96.7

 

4.4

 

Total investments

 

$

2,445.0

 

5.1%

 

4.5%

 

$

2,488.4

 

$

124.0

 

 

Ratings distribution(1):

 

Fair Value

 

%

 

Treasury and U.S. government obligations

 

$146.7

 

6.1%

 

Agency obligations

 

136.5

 

5.7%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

1,695.3

 

70.9%

 

AA/Aa

 

300.4

 

12.6%

 

A/A

 

112.8

 

4.7%

 

Total

 

$2,391.7

 

100.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Duration of investment portfolio (in years):

 

 

 

4.1

 


(1)             Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody’s Investor Services and Standard & Poor’s classifications.

12




Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Estimated Net Exposure Amortization(1)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Estimated Net

 

Estimated
Ending Net

 

 

 

Debt Service

 

Debt Service

 

 

 

Amortization

 

Outstanding

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (as of March 31)

 

 

 

$

78,555

 

2007 (April — December)

 

$

5,377

 

73,178

 

2008

 

5,495

 

67,683

 

2009

 

4,073

 

63,610

 

2010

 

5,989

 

57,621

 

2011

 

5,686

 

51,935

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007—2011

 

26,620

 

51,935

 

2012—2016

 

33,486

 

18,449

 

2017—2021

 

6,725

 

11,724

 

2022—2026

 

2,242

 

9,482

 

After 2026

 

9,482

 

 

Total

 

$

78,555

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (as of March 31)

 

 

 

$

108,297

 

2007 (April — December)

 

$

4,757

 

103,540

 

2008

 

5,544

 

97,996

 

2009

 

5,792

 

92,204

 

2010

 

5,319

 

86,885

 

2011

 

5,209

 

81,676

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007—2011

 

26,621

 

81,676

 

2012—2016

 

23,931

 

57,745

 

2017—2021

 

19,924

 

37,821

 

2022—2026

 

16,039

 

21,782

 

After 2026

 

21,782

 

 

Total

 

$

108,297

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Financial Guaranty

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (as of March 31)

 

 

 

$

186,852

 

2007 (April — December)

 

$

10,134

 

176,718

 

2008

 

11,039

 

165,679

 

2009

 

9,865

 

155,814

 

2010

 

11,308

 

144,506

 

2011

 

10,895

 

133,611

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007—2011

 

53,241

 

133,611

 

2012—2016

 

57,418

 

76,194

 

2017—2021

 

26,649

 

49,545

 

2022—2026

 

18,281

 

31,264

 

After 2026

 

31,264

 

 

Total

 

$

186,852

 

 

 


(1)             Represents amortization of existing guaranteed portfolio (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of March 31, 2007. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations.

13




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Estimated Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Future Installment Premiums

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

Estimated
Net Unearned

 

Estimated

 

Total
Estimated
Net Future

 

 

 

Net Unearned

 

Premium

 

Net Future

 

Premium

 

 

 

Premiums(1)

 

Amortization

 

Installments

 

Earnings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (as of March 31)

 

$

156.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (2nd, 3rd & 4th Qtrs)

 

136.5

 

$

20.3

 

$

59.5

 

$

79.8

 

2008

 

129.4

 

7.1

 

79.9

 

87.0

 

2009

 

123.1

 

6.3

 

72.3

 

78.5

 

2010

 

117.1

 

6.0

 

61.5

 

67.5

 

2011

 

111.5

 

5.7

 

56.0

 

61.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007—2011

 

111.5

 

45.3

 

329.2

 

374.5

 

2012—2016

 

86.3

 

25.2

 

150.7

 

175.8

 

2017—2021

 

66.0

 

20.3

 

42.9

 

63.3

 

2022—2026

 

49.2

 

16.8

 

21.3

 

38.1

 

After 2026

 

 

49.2

 

30.0

 

79.2

 

Total

 

 

 

$

156.8

 

$

574.1

 

$

730.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (as of March 31)

 

$

460.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (2nd, 3rd & 4th Qtrs)

 

427.0

 

$

33.9

 

$

17.3

 

$

51.2

 

2008

 

392.8

 

34.2

 

27.2

 

61.3

 

2009

 

360.3

 

32.5

 

26.5

 

59.0

 

2010

 

329.7

 

30.6

 

24.4

 

55.0

 

2011

 

300.9

 

28.8

 

23.1

 

51.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007—2011

 

300.9

 

160.0

 

118.5

 

278.5

 

2012—2016

 

184.5

 

116.5

 

92.8

 

209.3

 

2017—2021

 

107.2

 

77.2

 

65.3

 

142.6

 

2022—2026

 

57.2

 

50.0

 

50.1

 

100.1

 

After 2026

 

 

57.2

 

68.4

 

125.5

 

Total

 

 

 

$

460.9

 

$

395.1

 

$

856.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Financial Guaranty

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (as of March 31)

 

$

617.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (2nd, 3rd & 4th Qtrs)

 

563.5

 

$

54.2

 

$

76.8

 

$

131.0

 

2008

 

522.2

 

41.3

 

107.0

 

148.3

 

2009

 

483.4

 

38.8

 

98.8

 

137.6

 

2010

 

446.9

 

36.5

 

86.0

 

122.5

 

2011

 

412.4

 

34.5

 

79.2

 

113.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007—2011

 

412.4

 

205.3

 

447.8

 

653.0

 

2012—2016

 

270.8

 

141.6

 

243.5

 

385.1

 

2017—2021

 

173.2

 

97.6

 

108.2

 

205.8

 

2022—2026

 

106.4

 

66.8

 

71.4

 

138.2

 

After 2026

 

 

106.4

 

98.4

 

204.7

 

Total

 

 

 

$

617.7

 

$

969.2

 

$

1,586.9

 


(1)             Unearned premium amounts are U.S. GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums.

14




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 7)

As of March 31, 2007

(dollars in millions)

Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type

 

 

Financial Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

Sector

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating(7)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating(7)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating(7)

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

983

 

A+

 

$

11,632

 

A+

 

$

12,615

 

A+

 

Tax backed

 

1,316

 

BBB+

 

10,717

 

A+

 

12,032

 

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

126

 

BBB+

 

9,490

 

A+

 

9,616

 

A+

 

Transportation

 

42

 

AAA

 

6,661

 

A

 

6,703

 

A

 

Healthcare

 

1,098

 

A-

 

5,561

 

A

 

6,659

 

A

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

39

 

AAA

 

1,617

 

BBB+

 

1,656

 

A-

 

Higher education

 

373

 

BBB

 

918

 

A+

 

1,292

 

A

 

Housing

 

 

 

1,030

 

AA-

 

1,030

 

AA-

 

Structured municipal(1)

 

 

 

570

 

AAA

 

570

 

AAA

 

Other public finance(2)

 

12

 

BBB

 

732

 

A

 

744

 

A

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

3,989

 

A-

 

$

48,929

 

A+

 

$

52,918

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations(3)

 

$

27,144

 

AAA

 

$

1,602

 

AA+

 

$

28,746

 

AAA

 

Commercial receivables(4)

 

6,029

 

AAA

 

1,958

 

A-

 

7,987

 

AA

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

6,616

 

AAA

 

384

 

AA-

 

6,999

 

AA+

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

3,562

 

A

 

1,592

 

A-

 

5,154

 

A

 

Consumer receivables(5)

 

2,359

 

AA+

 

670

 

BBB

 

3,029

 

AA

 

Other structured finance(6)

 

2,720

 

AA+

 

739

 

A+

 

3,459

 

AA+

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

48,430

 

AA+

 

$

6,945

 

A

 

$

55,375

 

AA+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regulated Utilities

 

$

2,883

 

A+

 

$

2,738

 

BBB+

 

$

5,621

 

A-

 

Pooled corporate obligations(3)

 

4,025

 

AAA

 

1,108

 

AAA

 

5,133

 

AAA

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

4,518

 

AAA

 

294

 

AA

 

4,811

 

AAA

 

Pooled infrastructure

 

4,449

 

AAA

 

 

 

4,449

 

AAA

 

Infrastructure

 

885

 

AA

 

3,002

 

BBB

 

3,887

 

BBB+

 

Other structured finance

 

2,279

 

AA

 

1,185

 

A

 

3,464

 

AA-

 

Public finance

 

834

 

A+

 

486

 

A

 

1,320

 

A+

 

Future flow

 

658

 

BBB

 

297

 

BBB

 

955

 

BBB

 

Insurance securitizations

 

789

 

A-

 

131

 

A

 

920

 

A-

 

Total international

 

$

21,319

 

AA

 

$

9,240

 

A-

 

$

30,559

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

73,738

 

AA+

 

$

65,115

 

A

 

$

138,853

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage guaranty risk in force

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

1,374

 

N/A

 


(1)             Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

(2)             Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

(3)             Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

(4)             Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

(5)             Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

(6)             Other structured finance: includes trade receivable securitizations, secured structured lending and manufactured housing.

(7)             Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

15




Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 7)

(dollars in millions)

Gross Par Written by Asset Type

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

Sector

 

1Q-07

 

1Q-07

 

1Q-07

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tax backed

 

$

558

 

$

374

 

$

932

 

General obligation

 

28

 

173

 

201

 

Healthcare

 

 

109

 

109

 

Municipal utilities

 

6

 

45

 

52

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

 

50

 

50

 

Higher education

 

18

 

1

 

18

 

Housing

 

 

 

 

Transportation

 

 

 

 

Structured municipal(1)

 

 

 

 

Other public finance(2)

 

 

1

 

1

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

609

 

$

754

 

$

1,363

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations(3)

 

$

3,833

 

$

290

 

$

4,123

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

1,000

 

4

 

1,004

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

416

 

192

 

609

 

Consumer receivables(5)

 

500

 

3

 

503

 

Commercial receivables(4)

 

 

7

 

7

 

Other structured finance(6)

 

28

 

 

28

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

5,776

 

$

496

 

$

6,273

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations(3)

 

$

1,504

 

$

89

 

$

1,593

 

Regulated utilities

 

686

 

156

 

842

 

Infrastructure

 

 

205

 

205

 

Other structured finance

 

 

53

 

53

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

 

18

 

18

 

Public finance

 

 

16

 

16

 

Pooled infrastructure

 

 

 

 

Future flow

 

 

 

 

Insurance securitizations

 

 

 

 

Total international

 

$

2,190

 

$

537

 

$

2,726

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total gross par written

 

$

8,575

 

$

1,787

 

$

10,362

 


1.                  Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

2.                  Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

3.                  Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

4.                  Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

5.                  Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

6.                  Other structured finance: includes trade receivable securitizations, secured structured lending and manufactured housing.

16




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 7)

(dollars in millions)

Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio

 

 

As of March 31, 2007

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

Ratings(1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

59,021

 

80.0%

 

$

4,799

 

7.4%

 

$

63,821

 

46.0%

 

AA/Aa

 

2,732

 

3.7%

 

19,340

 

29.7%

 

22,072

 

15.9%

 

A/A

 

5,764

 

7.8%

 

26,621

 

40.9%

 

32,385

 

23.2%

 

BBB/Baa

 

6,113

 

8.3%

 

13,279

 

20.4%

 

19,392

 

14.0%

 

Below investment grade

 

107

 

0.1%

 

1,076

 

1.7%

 

1,183

 

0.9%

 

Total exposures

 

$

73,738

 

100.0%

 

$

65,115

 

100.0%

 

$

138,853

 

100.0%

 

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2006

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

Ratings(1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

52,606

 

77.6%

 

$

4,448

 

6.9%

 

$

57,054

 

43.1%

 

AA/Aa

 

4,028

 

5.9%

 

18,955

 

29.4%

 

22,983

 

17.4%

 

A/A

 

5,757

 

8.5%

 

27,065

 

42.0%

 

32,822

 

24.9%

 

BBB/Baa

 

5,351

 

7.9%

 

12,831

 

19.9%

 

18,182

 

13.7%

 

Below investment grade

 

92

 

0.1%

 

1,163

 

1.8%

 

1,255

 

0.9%

 

Total exposures

 

$

67,834

 

100.0%

 

$

64,462

 

100.0%

 

$

132,296

 

100.0%

 


1.                  Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

17




Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (4 of 7)

(dollars in millions)

Geographic distribution of financial guaranty portfolio, as of March 31, 2007

U.S.:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

California

 

$

7,771

 

5.6%

 

New York

 

5,874

 

4.2%

 

Texas

 

3,306

 

2.4%

 

Illinois

 

2,997

 

2.2%

 

Florida

 

2,796

 

2.0%

 

Massachusetts

 

2,625

 

1.9%

 

Pennsylvania

 

2,341

 

1.7%

 

New Jersey

 

2,032

 

1.5%

 

Puerto Rico

 

1,954

 

1.4%

 

Washington

 

1,906

 

1.4%

 

Other states

 

19,316

 

13.9%

 

Mortgage and structured (multiple states)

 

55,375

 

39.9%

 

Total U.S.

 

$

108,293

 

78.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International:

 

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom

 

$

19,617

 

14.1%

 

Germany

 

2,813

 

2.0%

 

Australia

 

1,302

 

0.9%

 

Turkey

 

623

 

0.4%

 

Italy

 

466

 

0.3%

 

Other

 

5,739

 

4.1%

 

Total International

 

$

30,559

 

22.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

138,853

 

100.0%

 

 

18




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (5 of 7)

(dollars in millions)

Distribution by ratings of pooled corporate obligations

 

March 31, 2007

 

December 31, 2006

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Ratings(1)

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

31,553

 

93.1%

 

$

25,565

 

87.6%

 

AA/Aa

 

2,202

 

6.5%

 

3,473

 

11.9%

 

A/A

 

74

 

0.2%

 

75

 

0.3%

 

BBB/Baa

 

17

 

0.1%

 

17

 

0.1%

 

Below investment grade

 

33

 

0.1%

 

37

 

0.1%

 

Total exposures

 

$

33,879

 

100.0%

 

$

29,167

 

100.0%

 

 

Distribution of pooled corporate obligations by year of issue as of March 31, 2007

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

2000 and prior

 

$

264

 

0.8%

 

2001

 

562

 

1.7%

 

2002

 

3,036

 

9.0%

 

2003

 

2,256

 

6.7%

 

2004

 

1,589

 

4.7%

 

2005

 

7,384

 

21.8%

 

2006

 

13,598

 

40.1%

 

2007 year to date

 

5,190

 

15.3%

 

 

 

$

33,879

 

100.0%

 


1.                  Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

19




Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (6 of 7)

(dollars in millions)

Distribution by ratings of residential mortgage-backed securities

 

March 31, 2007

 

December 31, 2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Net Par

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Ratings(1)

 

U.S. Prime

 

U.S. Subprime

 

International

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

1,422

 

$

6,519

 

$

4,311

 

$

12,253

 

72.2%

 

$

11,714

 

72.2%

 

AA/Aa

 

121

 

2

 

207

 

329

 

1.9%

 

253

 

1.6%

 

A/A

 

703

 

174

 

190

 

1,067

 

6.3%

 

1,241

 

7.7%

 

BBB/Baa

 

2,908

 

194

 

103

 

3,205

 

18.9%

 

2,916

 

18.0%

 

Below investment grade

 

 

111

 

 

111

 

0.7%

 

97

 

0.6%

 

Total exposures

 

$

5,154

 

$

6,999

 

$

4,811

 

$

16,965

 

100.0%

 

$

16,221

 

100.0%

 

 

Distribution of U.S. subprime residential mortgage-backed securities by rating as of March 31, 2007

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance

 

Total

 

 

 

Net Par

 

Net Par

 

Net Par

 

Ratings(1)

 

Outstanding

 

Outstanding

 

Outstanding

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

6,233

 

$

286

 

$

6,519

 

AA/Aa

 

 

2

 

2

 

A/A

 

154

 

20

 

174

 

BBB/Baa

 

162

 

31

 

194

 

Below investment grade

 

66

 

45

 

111

 

 

 

$

6,616

 

$

384

 

$

6,999

 

 

Distribution of residential mortgage-backed securities by year of issue as of March 31, 2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Prime

 

U.S. Subprime

 

International

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

 

2000 and prior

 

$

105

 

$

65

 

$

67

 

$

237

 

1.4%

 

 

2001

 

19

 

28

 

205

 

252

 

1.5%

 

 

2002

 

56

 

23

 

270

 

349

 

2.1%

 

 

2003

 

130

 

482

 

170

 

782

 

4.6%

 

 

2004

 

818

 

665

 

71

 

1,555

 

9.2%

 

 

2005

 

2,176

 

111

 

1,248

 

3,536

 

20.8%

 

 

2006

 

1,437

 

4,625

 

2,781

 

8,843

 

52.1%

 

 

2007 year to date

 

412

 

1,000

 

 

1,412

 

8.3%

 

 

 

 

$

5,154

 

$

6,999

 

$

4,811

 

$

16,965

 

100.0%

 

 


1.                  Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

20




Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (7 of 7)
(dollars in millions)

Historical Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type

 

 

As of March 31,

 

As of December 31,

 

 

 

2007

 

2006

 

2005

 

Sector

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating(7)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating(7)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating(7)

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

12,615

 

A+

 

$

12,700

 

A+

 

$

11,965

 

A+

 

Tax backed

 

12,032

 

A+

 

11,812

 

A+

 

10,671

 

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

9,616

 

A+

 

9,673

 

A+

 

10,378

 

A+

 

Transportation

 

6,703

 

A

 

6,302

 

A

 

6,407

 

A

 

Healthcare

 

6,659

 

A

 

6,580

 

A

 

6,003

 

A

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

1,656

 

A-

 

1,580

 

BBB+

 

1,431

 

A-

 

Higher education

 

1,292

 

A

 

1,282

 

A

 

1,177

 

A

 

Housing

 

1,030

 

AA-

 

1,083

 

AA-

 

1,148

 

AA-

 

Structured municipal(1)

 

570

 

AAA

 

578

 

AAA

 

829

 

AAA

 

Other public finance(2)

 

744

 

A

 

745

 

A

 

760

 

A

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

52,918

 

A+

 

$

52,335

 

A+

 

$

50,769

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations(3)

 

$

28,746

 

AAA

 

$

25,604

 

AAA

 

$

19,177

 

AAA

 

Commercial receivables(4)

 

7,987

 

AA

 

7,879

 

AA

 

4,358

 

AA-

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

6,999

 

AA+

 

6,390

 

AA+

 

4,221

 

AA+

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

5,154

 

A

 

4,849

 

A

 

5,451

 

A

 

Consumer receivables(5)

 

3,029

 

AA

 

2,663

 

AA-

 

2,413

 

A

 

Other structured finance(6)

 

3,459

 

AA+

 

4,199

 

AA

 

2,958

 

AA

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

55,375

 

AA+

 

$

51,583

 

AA+

 

$

38,578

 

AA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regulated utilities

 

$

5,621

 

A-

 

$

4,780

 

A-

 

$

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations(3)

 

5,133

 

AAA

 

3,563

 

AAA

 

2,111

 

AAA

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

4,811

 

AAA

 

4,982

 

AAA

 

2,139

 

AA+

 

Pooled infrastructure

 

4,449

 

AAA

 

4,616

 

AAA

 

 

 

Infrastructure

 

3,887

 

BBB+

 

3,640

 

BBB+

 

3,461

 

A-

 

Other structured finance

 

3,464

 

AA-

 

3,664

 

AA-

 

3,020

 

A

 

Public finance

 

1,320

 

A+

 

1,202

 

A+

 

1,456

 

A

 

Future flow

 

955

 

BBB

 

1,008

 

BBB

 

931

 

BBB

 

Insurance securitizations

 

920

 

A-

 

923

 

A-

 

 

 

Total international

 

$

30,559

 

AA-

 

$

28,378

 

AA-

 

$

13,118

 

A+

 

Total exposures

 

$

138,853

 

AA-

 

$

132,296

 

AA-

 

$

102,465

 

AA-

 

Mortgage guaranty risk in force

 

$

1,374

 

N/A

 

$

1,822

 

N/A

 

$

2,332

 

N/A

 

 

Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio

 

 

March 31, 2007

 

December 31, 2006

 

December 31, 2005

 

Ratings(7)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

63,821

 

46.0%

 

$

57,054

 

43.1%

 

$

34,492

 

33.7%

 

AA/Aa

 

22,072

 

15.9%

 

22,983

 

17.4%

 

19,978

 

19.5%

 

A/A

 

32,385

 

23.2%

 

32,822

 

24.9%

 

30,258

 

29.5%

 

BBB/Baa

 

19,392

 

14.0%

 

18,182

 

13.7%

 

16,404

 

16.0%

 

Below investment grade

 

1,183

 

0.9%

 

1,255

 

0.9%

 

1,333

 

1.3%

 

Total exposures

 

$

138,853

 

100.0%

 

$

132,296

 

100.0%

 

$

102,465

 

100.0%

 


1.                  Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

2                     Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

3.                  Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.            

4                     Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

5.                  Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

6.                  Other structured finance: includes trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending and manufactured housing.

7.                  Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

21




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Non-Investment Grade Exposures
as of March 31, 2007
(dollars in millions)

Non-Investment Grade Exposures by:
Asset Type

 

Weighted Average
Remaining Life

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Average
Rating 
1

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Transportation

 

19.4

 

$

217

 

B+

 

General obligation

 

14.5

 

79

 

BB+

 

Tax backed

 

16.5

 

73

 

BB

 

Healthcare

 

10.8

 

59

 

B+

 

Municipal utilities

 

10.5

 

13

 

C

 

Housing

 

13.3

 

4

 

B-

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

10.8

 

2

 

BB

 

Higher education

 

13.4

 

1

 

BB+

 

Structured municipal

 

 

 

 

Other public finance

 

15.3

 

4

 

D

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

16.6

 

$

451

 

BB-

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Commercial Receivables

 

5.5

 

$

171

 

B+

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

6.8

 

111

 

B-

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

4.5

 

33

 

B

 

Consumer receivables

 

1.6

 

2

 

BB

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

5.9

 

 

D

 

Other structured finance

 

8.0

 

134

 

BB-

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

6.5

 

$

451

 

B+

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Infrastructure

 

19.0

 

$

256

 

C

 

Other structured finance

 

9.0

 

25

 

B-

 

Pooled infrastructure

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

 

 

 

Total international

 

18.1

 

$

281

 

CC

 

Total non-investment grade exposures

 

13.1

 

$

1,183

 

B

 

 

 

Top Ten Non-Investment Grade Exposures as of March 31, 2007

Name or Description

 

Weighted
Average
Remaining Life

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Average
Rating(1)

 

Eurotunnel—Fixed-Link Finance & Fixed-Link Finance(2)

 

20.7

 

$

222

 

D

 

Public Finance Infrastructure Transaction

 

21.1

 

165

 

BB-

 

Structured Finance Domestic Manufactured Housing Transactions(3)

 

6.4

 

122

 

BB+

 

Structured Finance Domestic Auto Fleet Financing Transaction

 

2.5

 

108

 

BB+

 

Puerto Rico Public Finance Corporation

 

15.4

 

70

 

BB+

 

Northwest Airlines EETC Transactions

 

8.3

 

33

 

D

 

International Airport Facility

 

7.1

 

33

 

BB

 

Structured Finance Domestic Franchise Loan Receivable Transactions(4)

 

13.5

 

29

 

B

 

Louisiana State Stadium & Exposition District

 

20.3

 

29

 

BB

 

New Orleans Louisiana Exhibit Hall—Morial

 

16.2

 

29

 

BB

 

Total

 

14.5

 

$

840

 

B

 


1.                  Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

2.                  Exposure comprised of four series:  $149.7 million,  $38.3 million, $27.2 million, and $7.2 million - all rated ‘D’.

3.                  Exposure comprised of twelve series: 10 series totaling $119.5 million - rated ‘BB+’, $1.4 million rated ‘BB’, and $1.5 million rated ‘B’.

4.                  Exposure comprised of two series: one in the amount of $15.4 million and the other for $14.1 million both rated ‘B’.

22




Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Closely Monitored Credits (“CMC”)
(dollars in millions)

Net par outstanding by credit monitoring category(1)

 

 

March 31, 2007

 

Description

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Number of Credits
in Category

 

Fundamentally sound risk

 

$

137,623

 

99.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closely monitored credits:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Category 1

 

749

 

0.5%

 

30

 

Category 2

 

321

 

0.2%

 

18

 

Category 3

 

109

 

0.1%

 

18

 

Category 4

 

22

 

 

13

 

CMC Total

 

1,201

 

0.9%

 

79

 

Other below investment grade risk

 

29

 

 

58

 

Total

 

$

138,853

 

100.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 31, 2006

 

Description

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Number of Credits
in Category

 

Fundamentally sound risk

 

$

130,944

 

99.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closely monitored credits:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Category 1

 

855

 

0.6%

 

43

 

Category 2

 

318

 

0.2%

 

13

 

Category 3

 

123

 

0.1%

 

18

 

Category 4

 

22

 

 

13

 

CMC Total

 

1,318

 

1.0%

 

87

 

Other below investment grade risk

 

34

 

 

68

 

Total

 

$

132,296

 

100.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


1.  Our surveillance department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of closely monitored credits. The closely monitored credits are divided into four categories: Category 1 (low priority; fundamentally sound, greater than normal risk); Category 2 (medium priority; weakening credit profile, may result in loss); Category 3 (high priority; claim/default probable, case reserve established); Category 4 (claim paid, case reserve established for future payments). The closely monitored credits include all below investment grade (BIG) exposures where there is a material amount of exposure (generally greater than $10.0 million) or a material risk of the Company incurring a loss greater than $0.5 million. The closely monitored credits also include investment grade (IG) risks where credit quality is deteriorating and where, in the view of the Company, there is significant potential that the risk quality will fall below investment grade.

23




Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 1 of 4)
as of March 31, 2007
(dollars in millions)

25 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Revenue Source

 

 

 

Outstanding(2)

 

Rating(1)

 

California State General Obligation & Leases

 

$

838

 

A+

 

New York City General Obligation & Leases

 

687

 

A+

 

Long Island Power Authority

 

665

 

A-

 

New Jersey State General Obligation & Leases

 

658

 

AA-

 

Chicago Illinois General Obligation & Leases

 

624

 

AA-

 

Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases

 

619

 

BBB-

 

Massachusetts State General Obligation & Bay Transportation

 

596

 

AA-

 

Jefferson County Alabama Sewer

 

578

 

A

 

Washington State General Obligation

 

563

 

AA

 

New York State MTA—Transportation Revenue

 

541

 

A

 

Los Angeles California Unified School District

 

521

 

AA-

 

New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority

 

520

 

AA

 

Puerto Rico Highway & Transportation Authority

 

494

 

BBB

 

New York State General Obligation & Leases

 

464

 

AA

 

Energy Northwest

 

439

 

AA

 

Denver Colorado Airport System

 

428

 

A

 

Houston Texas Water & Sewer System

 

421

 

A+

 

Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority

 

408

 

BBB+

 

San Francisco California Airport

 

403

 

A

 

New Jersey State Turnpike Authority

 

350

 

A

 

Port Authority of New York & New Jersey

 

329

 

AA-

 

Massachusetts School Building Authority

 

327

 

AA

 

Chicago Illinois Public Building—Board Of Education

 

286

 

A

 

Los Angeles County Metro Trans—Sales Tax

 

285

 

AA-

 

Wisconsin State General Obligation

 

282

 

AA-

 

Total top 25 U.S. public finance exposures

 

$

12,326

 

 

 


1.  Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

2. Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.

24




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 2 of 4)

as of March 31, 2007

(dollars in millions)

25 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Revenue Source

 

Outstanding(2)

 

Rating(1)

 

Structured Finance Corporate Pool

 

$

914

 

AAA

 

Field Point III & IV, Limited

 

887

 

AA-

 

Private — CDO

 

760

 

AAA

 

Field Point I & II, Limited

 

742

 

AA-

 

Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate

 

740

 

AAA

 

Sandelman Finance 2006-1 Limited

 

672

 

AA

 

Private — CDO

 

670

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO — IG ABS

 

594

 

AAA

 

Private — CDO

 

540

 

AAA

 

Private — Mortgage Backed Securities

 

500

 

A

 

Private — Consumer ABS

 

500

 

AAA

 

Private — Consumer ABS

 

500

 

AAA

 

Private — CDO

 

489

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate

 

438

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate

 

438

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate

 

438

 

AAA

 

Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J Cl 1-A

 

436

 

BBB-

 

Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J Cl 2-A

 

435

 

BBB-

 

Private — Consumer ABS

 

420

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate

 

410

 

AAA

 

Southfork CLO Ltd. Series 2005-A1 Class A1G

 

380

 

AAA

 

Private — CDO

 

373

 

AAA

 

Private — Mortgage Backed Securities

 

371

 

BBB-

 

Private — Consumer ABS

 

356

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO — HY Corporate

 

328

 

AAA

 

Total top 25 U.S. structured finance exposures

 

$

13,331

 

 

 


1.                  Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

2.                  Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.

25




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 3 of 4)

as of March 31, 2007

(dollars in millions)

10 Largest Healthcare Exposures

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue Source

 

Outstanding(2)

 

Rating(1)

 

State

 

Covenant Health

 

$

177

 

A-

 

TN

 

Texas Health Resources

 

153

 

A+

 

TX

 

Ascension Health Credit Group

 

144

 

AA

 

MO

 

Catholic Healthcare Partners

 

137

 

AA-

 

OH

 

Catholic Healthcare West

 

132

 

A-

 

CA

 

W.A. Foote Memorial Hospital

 

125

 

A

 

MI

 

Sutter Health Obligated Group

 

117

 

AA-

 

CA

 

Medstar Health Inc.

 

109

 

BBB

 

MD

 

St. Barnabas Health Care System

 

106

 

BBB

 

NJ

 

Methodist Hospital

 

102

 

A+

 

TX

 

Total top 10 healthcare exposures

 

$

1,302

 

 

 

 

 

 

10 Largest International Exposures

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Revenue Source

 

Outstanding(2)

 

Rating(1)

 

Private — Mortgage Backed Securities

 

$

1,477

 

AAA

 

Paragon Mortgages (No.13) PLC

 

1,284

 

AAA

 

Graphite Mortgages PLC Provide Graphite 2005-2

 

1,225

 

AAA

 

International Infrastructure Pool

 

972

 

AAA

 

International Infrastructure Pool

 

972

 

AAA

 

International Infrastructure Pool

 

972

 

AAA

 

Essential Public Infrastructure Capital II

 

863

 

AAA

 

Nemus Funding No.1 PLC

 

694

 

AAA

 

Stichting Profile Securitisation I

 

669

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO — IG ABS

 

632

 

AAA

 

Total top 10 international exposures

 

$

9,760

 

 

 


1.                  Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

2.                  Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.

26




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 4 of 4)
as of March 31, 2007
(dollars in millions)

10 Largest Mortgage Servicers (Prime and Subprime)

Revenue Source

 

Net Par
Outstanding(1)

 

 

Countrywide Home Loans, Inc.

 

$

2,334

 

 

European Mortgage Servicer (Private Transaction)

 

1,477

 

 

Residential Funding Corporation

 

1,465

 

 

Paragon Finance PLC

 

1,284

 

 

Northern Rock

 

1,225

 

 

AMC Mortgage Services

 

1,033

 

 

Wells Fargo

 

888

 

 

East West Bank

 

839

 

 

Chevy Chase Bank, F.S.B.

 

550

 

 

Aurora Loan Services LLC

 

462

 

 

Total top 10 mortgage servicers (prime and subprime) exposures

 

$

11,557

 

 


1.      Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.

27




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of March 31, 2007

 

As of December 31, 2006

 

 

 

AGC

 

AG Re(1)

 

Consolidated

 

AGC

 

AG Re(1)

 

Consolidated

 

Statutory surplus and reserves

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve(2)

 

$

240

 

$

454

 

$

694

 

$

239

 

$

444

 

$

683

 

Contingency reserve

 

663

 

 

663

 

631

 

 

631

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

272

 

758

 

1,030

 

286

 

741

 

1,027

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves(3)

 

13

 

18

 

31

 

15

 

18

 

33

 

Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves

 

$

1,188

 

$

1,230

 

$

2,418

 

$

1,171

 

$

1,203

 

$

2,374

 

Claims paying resources

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

$

272

 

$

758

 

$

1,030

 

$

286

 

$

741

 

$

1,027

 

Contingency reserve

 

663

 

 

663

 

631

 

 

631

 

Qualified statutory capital

 

935

 

758

 

1,693

 

917

 

741

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve(2)

 

240

 

454

 

694

 

239

 

444

 

683

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves(3)

 

13

 

18

 

31

 

15

 

18

 

33

 

Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves

 

1,188

 

1,230

 

2,418

 

1,171

 

1,203

 

2,374

 

Present value of installment premium (d)

 

365

 

228

 

593

 

356

 

230

 

586

 

Standby line of credit/stop loss

 

455

 

 

455

 

455

 

 

455

 

Total claims paying resources

 

$

2,008

 

$

1,458

 

$

3,466

 

$

1,982

 

$

1,433

 

$

3,415

 

Net par insured outstanding

 

$

72,902

 

$

66,037

 

$

138,853

 

$

68,370

 

$

63,927

 

$

132,296

 

Net debt service outstanding

 

$

89,938

 

$

97,050

 

$

186,852

 

$

85,522

 

$

94,652

 

$

180,174

 

Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par insured to statutory capital

 

78:1

 

87:1

 

82:1

 

75:1

 

86:1

 

80:1

 

Capital ratio(4)

 

96:1

 

128:1

 

110:1

 

93:1

 

128:1

 

109:1

 

Financial resources ratio(5)

 

45:1

 

67:1

 

54:1

 

43:1

 

66:1

 

53:1

 


1.                  AG Re numbers are our estimate of U.S. statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements.

2.                  Unearned premium reserve for AG Re is U.S. GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums.

3.                  Loss & loss adjustment reserves for AG Re is U.S. GAAP based and net of reinsurance recoverable and portfolio reserves.

4.                  Capital ratio is net par and interest insured divided by qualified statutory capital.

5.                  Financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

28




Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

 

Year Ended December 31,

 

 

 

YTD 1Q-2007

 

2006

 

2005

 

2004

 

GAAP Summary Income Statement Data

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross premiums written

 

$

72.5

 

$

325.7

 

$

252.1

 

$

190.9

 

Net earned premiums

 

53.9

 

206.7

 

198.7

 

187.9

 

Net investment income

 

31.5

 

111.5

 

96.8

 

94.8

 

Total expenses

 

35.0

 

132.1

 

64.9

 

114.6

 

Income before provision for income taxes

 

40.3

 

190.0

 

229.6

 

233.3

 

Net income

 

39.0

 

159.7

 

188.4

 

182.8

 

Operating income

 

46.1

 

157.2

 

190.0

 

141.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income per diluted share

 

$

0.57

 

$

2.15

 

$

2.53

 

$

2.44

 

Operating income per diluted share

 

$

0.67

 

$

2.12

 

$

2.55

 

$

1.88

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Ratios

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

 

(8.8

)%

(3.3

)%

(35.0

)%

(17.0

)%

Expense ratio

 

61.5

%

59.2

%

58.9

%

65.4

%

Combined ratio

 

52.7

%

55.9

%

23.9

%

48.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data (end of period)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total investments and cash

 

$

2,494.1

 

$

2,469.9

 

$

2,256.0

 

$

2,157.9

 

Total assets

 

2,953.1

 

2,935.3

 

2,696.3

 

2,703.7

 

Unearned premium reserves

 

661.0

 

644.5

 

537.1

 

521.3

 

Loss and LAE reserves

 

121.0

 

120.6

 

128.4

 

236.2

 

Senior Notes

 

197.4

 

197.4

 

197.3

 

197.4

 

Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures

 

149.7

 

149.7

 

 

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

1,694.3

 

1,650.8

 

1,661.5

 

1,527.6

 

Book value per share

 

$

25.04

 

$

24.44

 

$

22.22

 

$

20.19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Financial Information

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net debt service outstanding (end of period)

 

$

186,852

 

$

180,174

 

$

145,694

 

$

136,120

 

Net par outstanding (end of period)

 

138,853

 

132,296

 

102,465

 

95,592

 

Gross par outstanding (end of period)

 

139,801

 

133,303

 

105,258

 

98,221

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated qualified statutory capital

 

1,693

 

1,658

 

1,545

 

1,351

 

Consolidated policyholders’ surplus & reserves

 

2,418

 

2,374

 

2,182

 

1,990

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par insured to statutory capital

 

82:1

 

80:1

 

66:1

 

71:1

 

Capital ratio(1)

 

110:1

 

109:1

 

94:1

 

101:1

 

Financial resources ratio(2)

 

54:1

 

53:1

 

48:1

 

51:1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Debt service written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

2,698

 

$

13,261

 

$

13,335

 

$

11,943

 

U.S. structured finance

 

6,348

 

28,902

 

16,724

 

15,131

 

International

 

3,821

 

17,154

 

5,729

 

3,897

 

Total debt service written

 

$

12,867

 

$

59,317

 

$

35,788

 

$

30,970

 


1.                  Capital ratio is net par and interest insured divided by qualified statutory capital.

2.                  Financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.

29




Endnotes related to non-GAAP financial measures discussed in the financial supplement:

(a) Present value of gross written premiums or PVP, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, on contracts written in the current period, discounted at 6% per year. We believe PVP is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because it permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, which GAAP gross premiums written does not adequately measure. Actual future net earned or written premiums may differ from PVP due to factors such  as prepayments, amortizations, refundings, contract terminations or defaults that may or may not be influenced by market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for gross written premiums determined in accordance with GAAP.

(b) Operating income, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as net income excluding after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments. Operating return on equity (ROE) represents operating income as a percentage of average shareholders’ equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income. We believe that operating income and operating ROE are useful measures for management, equity analysts and investors because the presentation of operating income and operating ROE enhance the understanding of our results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of our insurance business. We exclude net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, market interest rates, credit spreads, and other factors that management cannot control or predict. These measures should not be viewed as substitutes for net income or ROE determined in accordance with GAAP.

(c) Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as shareholders’ equity (book value) plus the after-tax value of the unearned premium reserve net of prepaid reinsurance premiums, plus the net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, less future ceding commissions, after tax discounted at 6%, less deferred acquisition costs, after tax. We believe adjusted book value is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because the calculation of adjusted book value permits an evaluation of the net present value of the Company’s in-force premiums and capital base. The premiums described above will be earned in future periods, but may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for book value determined in accordance with GAAP.

(d) Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as the present value of estimated future installment premiums from our in-force book of business, net of reinsurance and discounted at 6%. We believe net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because it permits an evaluation of the value of future estimated installment premiums. Estimated future premiums may change from period to period due to changes in par outstanding, maturity, or other factors that management cannot control or predict that result from market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors. There is no comparable GAAP financial measure.

For adjusted book value, net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, and present value of gross written premiums or PVP, we use 6% as the present value discount rate because it is the approximate taxable equivalent yield on our investment portfolio for the periods presented.




 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contacts:

 

 

 

 

 

Equity investors and media

 

 

Sabra Purtill

 

 

Managing Director, Investor Relations and Strategic Planning

 

 

(212) 408-6044

 

 

spurtill@assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

 

 

Chris McNamee

 

 

Vice President, Investor Relations

 

 

(212) 261-5509

 

 

cmcnamee@assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed income investors

 

 

Patrick Early

 

 

Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations

 

 

(212) 408 6043

 

 

pearly@assuredguaranty.com

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

 

30 Woodbourne Avenue

 

Michael Walker

Hamilton HM 08

 

Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations

Bermuda

 

(212) 261-5575

www.assuredguaranty.com

 

mwalker@assuredguaranty.com