EX-99.2 3 a07-3431_1ex99d2.htm EX-99.2

Exhibit 99.2

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Supplement
Fourth Quarter 2006
December 31, 2006

 

Table of Contents

 

Page

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

 

 

 

Selected Financial Highlights

 

1

 

 

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

 

2

 

 

Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

 

3

 

 

Segment Consolidation

 

4-5

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment

 

6-7

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment

 

8-9

 

 

Mortgage Guaranty Segment

 

10

 

 

Other Segment

 

11

 

 

Loss and LAE Reserves and Analysis of Net Claims Paid

 

12

 

 

Investment Portfolio

 

13

 

 

Net Exposure Amortization

 

14

 

 

Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Future Installment Premiums

 

15

 

 

Financial Guaranty Profile

 

16-21

 

 

Non-Investment Grade Exposures

 

22

 

 

Closely Monitored Credits

 

23

 

 

Largest Exposures by Sector

 

24-25

 

 

Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources

 

26

 

 

Summary Financial and Statistical Data

 

27

 

This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (the “Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our 10-Q’s dated March 31, 2005, June 30, 2005, September 30, 2005, March 31, 2006, June 30, 2006 and September 30, 2006 and our 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2005.

Some amounts in this Financial Supplement may not foot due to rounding.

 

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:

 

Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, the Company’s forward looking statements, including its calculations of adjusted book value, PVP and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, and statements regarding ratings improvement and the growth of the direct business could be affected by many events. These events include a significant reduction in the amount of reinsurance ceded by one or more of our principal ceding companies, rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy, contract cancellations, developments in the world’s financial and capital markets, more severe or frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserve, changes in regulation or tax laws, governmental actions, natural catastrophes, the Company’s dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, technological developments, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, changes in general economic conditions, other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time, management’s response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

 

 




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
(dollars and shares in millions except per share amounts)

 

 

Quarter Ended
December 31, 

 

% Change
versus

 

Year Ended
December 31,

 

% Change
versus 

 

 

 

2006

 

2005

 

4Q-05

 

2006

 

2005

 

2005

 

 

Gross written premiums (GWP) analysis:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Present value of financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP (PVP) (a)

 

$

116.0

 

$

83.9

 

38

%

$

453.6

 

$

286.3

 

58

%

Less: Installment premium PVP

 

69.5

 

57.2

 

22

%

270.6

 

183.6

 

47

%

Upfront financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP

 

46.5

 

26.7

 

74

%

183.0

 

102.7

 

78

%

Less: Upfront premium due to novations

 

 

 

 

 

18.4

 

NMF

 

Plus: Installment GWP

 

38.6

 

30.9

 

25

%

138.6

 

135.6

 

2

%

Financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP

 

85.1

 

57.6

 

48

%

321.6

 

219.9

 

46

%

Plus: Other segment GWP

 

0.1

 

0.4

 

(75

)%

4.1

 

32.2

 

(87

)%

Total GWP

 

$

85.2

 

$

58.0

 

47

%

$

325.7

 

$

252.1

 

29

%

Net income

 

$

42.4

 

$

38.2

 

11

%

$

159.7

 

$

188.4

 

(15

)%

Less: After-tax realized (losses) gains on investments

 

 

(1.0

)

NMF

 

(1.5

)

1.8

 

NMF

 

Less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives

 

1.0

 

4.6

 

(78

)%

4.0

 

(3.3

)

NMF

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

41.5

 

$

34.6

 

20

%

$

157.2

 

$

190.0

 

(17

)%

Book value

 

$

1,650.8

 

$

1,661.5

 

(1

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve less DAC, after-tax (1)

 

365.9

 

283.5

 

29

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net present value of estimate future installment premiums in-force, after-tax (d)

 

453.1

 

327.3

 

38

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted book value (c)

 

$

2,469.8

 

$

2,272.3

 

9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

ROE, excluding AOCI

 

10.2

%

9.6

%

 

 

9.9

%

12.3

%

 

 

Less: After-tax realized (losses) gains on investments

 

 

(0.3

)%

 

 

(0.1

)%

0.1

%

 

 

Less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives

 

0.2

%

1.2

%

 

 

0.2

%

(0.2

)%

 

 

Operating ROE, excluding AOCI (b)

 

10.0

%

8.7

%

 

 

9.7

%

12.4

%

 

 

Per diluted share:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

0.58

 

$

0.51

 

14

%

$

2.15

 

$

2.53

 

(15

)%

Less: After-tax realized (losses) gains on investments

 

 

(0.01

)

NMF

 

(0.02

)

0.02

 

NMF

 

Less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives

 

0.01

 

0.06

 

(83

)%

0.05

 

(0.04

)

NMF

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

0.56

 

$

0.46

 

22

%

$

2.12

 

$

2.55

 

(17

)%

Book value

 

$

24.44

 

$

22.22

 

10

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve less DAC, after-tax (1)

 

5.42

 

3.79

 

43

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net present value of estimate future installment premiums in-force, after-tax (d)

 

6.71

 

4.38

 

53

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted book value (c)

 

$

36.57

 

$

30.39

 

20

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Additional information

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shares outstanding at the end of period (2)

 

67.5

 

74.8

 

(10

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weighted average basic shares outstanding

 

72.5

 

73.8

 

(2

)%

73.3

 

74.0

 

(1

)%

Weighted average diluted shares outstanding

 

73.6

 

74.5

 

(1

)%

74.2

 

74.5

 

(0.4

)%

Consolidated net debt service outstanding

 

$

180,174

 

$

145,694

 

24

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated net par outstanding

 

132,296

 

102,465

 

29

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated claims-paying resources

 

3,415

 

3,065

 

11

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross par written

 

13,986

 

10,505

 

33

%

50,892

 

26,320

 

93

%


(1)             Unearned premium reserve (UPR) less pre-paid reinsurance premiums and deferred acquisition costs (DAC), all after-tax.

(2)             12/31/06 shares outstanding excludes 1.1 million of nonvested restricted stock, which is considered not issued under FAS 123R. 12/31/05 shares outstanding includes 1.0 million of nonvested restricted stock.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

1




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Income Statements
(dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

Quarter Ended
December 31,

 

% Change
versus

 

Year Ended
December 31,

 

% Change
versus

 

 

 

2006

 

2005

 

4Q-05

 

2006

 

2005

 

2005

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

85.2

 

$

58.0

 

47

 %

$

325.7

 

$

252.1

 

29

 %

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net written premiums

 

84.5

 

57.5

 

47

 %

318.7

 

217.3

 

47

 %

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

58.5

 

47.8

 

22

 %

206.7

 

198.7

 

4

 %

Net investment income

 

29.5

 

25.7

 

15

 %

111.5

 

96.8

 

15

 %

Other income

 

0.4

 

 

NMF   

0.4

 

0.2

 

100

 %

Total revenues

 

88.4

 

73.5

 

20

 %

318.6

 

295.7

 

8

 %

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(0.7

)

(0.2

)

250

 %

(6.8

)

(69.6

)

(90

)%

Profit commission expense

 

4.9

 

6.5

 

(25

)%

9.5

 

12.9

 

(26

)%

Acquisition costs

 

11.5

 

10.4

 

11

 %

45.0

 

45.3

 

(1

)%

Other operating expenses

 

18.8

 

15.1

 

25

 %

68.0

 

59.0

 

15

 %

Other expenses

 

4.3

 

4.0

 

8

 %

16.3

 

17.3

 

(6

)%

Total expenses

 

38.7

 

35.7

 

8

 %

132.1

 

64.9

 

104

 %

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income before provision for income taxes

 

49.7

 

37.8

 

31

 %

186.5

 

230.8

 

(19

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total provision for income taxes

 

8.2

 

3.2

 

156

 %

29.3

 

40.8

 

(28

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (b)

 

41.5

 

34.6

 

20

 %

157.2

 

190.0

 

(17

)%

After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

 

(1.0

)

NMF   

(1.5

)

1.8

 

NMF   

After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives

 

1.0

 

4.6

 

(78

)%

4.0

 

(3.3

)

NMF   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

42.4

 

$

38.2

 

11

 %

$

159.7

 

$

188.4

 

(15

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per diluted share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

0.56

 

$

0.46

 

22

 %

$

2.12

 

$

2.55

 

(17

)%

After-tax realized (losses) gains on investments

 

 

(0.01

)

NMF   

(0.02

)

0.02

 

NMF   

After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives

 

0.01

 

0.06

 

(83

)%

0.05

 

(0.04

)

NMF   

Net income

 

$

0.58

 

$

0.51

 

14

 %

$

2.15

 

$

2.53

 

(15

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Effect of refundings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Earned premiums from refundings

 

$

1.8

 

$

2.2

 

(18

)%

$

11.2

 

$

12.1

 

(7

)%

Net income effect

 

$

0.7

 

$

1.1

 

(36

)%

$

5.2

 

$

5.5

 

(5

)%

Net income per diluted share effect

 

$

0.01

 

$

0.01

 

0

%

$

0.07

 

$

0.07

 

0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weighted average shares outstanding

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Basic shares outstanding

 

72.5

 

73.8

 

(2

)%

73.3

 

74.0

 

(1

)%

Plus: effect of options

 

0.6

 

0.4

 

50

 %

0.6

 

0.2

 

200

 %

Plus: effect of restricted stock

 

0.5

 

0.3

 

67

 %

0.4

 

0.3

 

33

 %

Diluted shares outstanding

 

73.6

 

74.5

 

(1

)%

74.2

 

74.5

 

(0.4

)%


Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

2




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets
(dollars in millions)

 

 

As of :

 

 

 

December 31,

 

December 31,

 

 

 

2006

 

2005

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assets

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed maturity securities, at fair value

 

$

2,331.1

 

$

2,134.0

 

Short-term investments, at cost which approximates fair value

 

134.1

 

115.8

 

Total investments

 

2,465.1

 

2,249.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash and cash equivalents

 

4.8

 

6.2

 

Accrued investment income

 

24.2

 

22.7

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

217.0

 

193.4

 

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

7.5

 

12.5

 

Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses

 

10.9

 

12.4

 

Premiums receivable

 

41.6

 

33.0

 

Goodwill

 

85.4

 

85.4

 

Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments

 

52.6

 

53.0

 

Current income taxes receivable

 

 

3.0

 

Other assets

 

26.2

 

24.9

 

Total assets

 

$

2,935.3

 

$

2,696.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserves

 

$

644.5

 

$

537.1

 

Reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

120.6

 

128.4

 

Profit commissions payable

 

36.0

 

53.0

 

Reinsurance balances payable

 

7.2

 

3.7

 

Current income taxes payable

 

7.2

 

 

Deferred income taxes

 

39.9

 

26.6

 

Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts

 

21.4

 

19.2

 

Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments

 

6.7

 

12.7

 

Senior Notes

 

197.4

 

197.3

 

Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures

 

149.7

 

 

Liability for tax basis step-up adjustment

 

15.0

 

20.1

 

Other liabilities

 

39.0

 

36.6

 

Total liabilities

 

1,284.6

 

1,034.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Common stock

 

0.7

 

0.7

 

Additional paid-in capital

 

711.3

 

882.0

 

Unearned stock grant compensation

 

 

(14.8

)

Retained earnings

 

896.9

 

747.7

 

Accumulated other comprehensive income

 

41.9

 

45.8

 

Total shareholders’ equity

 

1,650.8

 

1,661.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

$

2,935.3

 

$

2,696.3

 

 

3




Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Segment Consolidation (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions)

 

 

Quarter Ended December 31, 2006

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance
(1)

 

Mortgage
Guaranty

 

Total
Financial
Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP):(a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

13.0

 

$

30.4

 

$

 

$

43.4

 

 

 

$

43.4

 

U.S. structured finance

 

32.5

 

4.5

 

 

36.9

 

 

 

36.9

 

International

 

25.3

 

10.4

 

 

35.7

 

 

 

35.7

 

Total PVP

 

$

70.8

 

$

45.2

 

$

 

$

116.0

 

 

 

$

116.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

48.7

 

$

33.7

 

$

2.7

 

$

85.1

 

$

0.1

 

$

85.2

 

Net written premiums

 

48.0

 

33.7

 

2.7

 

84.5

 

 

84.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

26.0

 

22.6

 

9.9

 

58.5

 

 

58.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

2.6

 

2.8

 

(5.0

)

0.5

 

(1.2

)

(0.7

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

0.6

 

4.3

 

4.9

 

 

4.9

 

Acquisition costs

 

2.2

 

7.9

 

1.3

 

11.5

 

 

11.5

 

Operating expenses

 

14.7

 

3.8

 

0.3

 

18.8

 

 

18.8

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

19.5

 

$

15.2

 

$

0.9

 

$

35.7

 

$

(1.2

)

$

34.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

6.5

 

$

7.4

 

$

8.9

 

$

22.8

 

$

1.2

 

$

24.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

10.0

%

12.6

%

(50.7

)%

0.8

%

 

 

(1.3

)%

Expense ratio

 

65.1

%

54.7

%

60.2

%

60.2

%

 

 

60.2

%

Combined ratio

 

75.1

%

67.3

%

9.5

%

61.0

%

 

 

58.9

%

 

 

 

Quarter Ended December 31, 2005

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance(1)

 

Mortgage
Guaranty

 

Total
Financial
Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

7.0

 

$

23.1

 

$

 

$

30.2

 

 

 

$

30.2

 

U.S. structured finance

 

20.5

 

8.7

 

 

29.2

 

 

 

29.2

 

International

 

18.4

 

6.1

 

 

24.5

 

 

 

24.5

 

Total PVP

 

$

46.0

 

$

37.9

 

$

 

$

83.9

 

 

 

$

83.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

26.6

 

$

28.5

 

$

2.7

 

$

57.6

 

$

0.4

 

$

58.0

 

Net written premiums

 

26.3

 

28.5

 

2.7

 

57.5

 

 

57.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

19.8

 

23.5

 

4.6

 

47.8

 

 

47.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(1.7

)

5.6

 

(4.2

)

(0.2

)

 

(0.2

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

1.4

 

5.1

 

6.5

 

 

6.5

 

Acquisition costs

 

1.6

 

8.3

 

0.4

 

10.4

 

 

10.4

 

Operating expenses

 

11.5

 

3.4

 

0.3

 

15.1

 

 

15.1

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

11.4

 

$

18.7

 

$

1.7

 

$

31.8

 

$

 

$

31.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

8.4

 

$

4.8

 

$

2.9

 

$

16.0

 

$

 

$

16.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(8.6

)%

23.9

%

(92.1

)%

(0.4

)%

 

 

(0.4

)%

Expense ratio

 

66.3

%

55.8

%

129.1

%

67.0

%

 

 

67.0

%

Combined ratio

 

57.7

%

79.7

%

37.0

%

66.6

%

 

 

66.6

%


(1)             Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.  PVP for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on facultative business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a current quarter basis effective Q1 2006; 2005 and prior amounts were reported on a one-quarter lag.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

4




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Segment Consolidation (2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

Year Ended December 31, 2006

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP): (a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

35.7

 

$

80.0

 

$

 

$

115.7

 

 

 

$

115.7

 

U.S. structured finance

 

146.8

 

13.5

 

 

160.3

 

 

 

160.3

 

International

 

119.7

 

57.9

 

 

177.7

 

 

 

177.7

 

Total PVP

 

$

302.2

 

$

151.5

 

$

 

$

453.6

 

 

 

$

453.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

189.2

 

$

123.9

 

$

8.4

 

$

321.6

 

$

4.1

 

$

325.7

 

Net written premiums

 

187.0

 

123.2

 

8.4

 

318.7

 

 

318.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

89.7

 

94.4

 

22.7

 

206.7

 

 

206.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(2.0

)

13.1

 

(4.4

)

6.7

 

(13.5

)

(6.8

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

2.7

 

6.8

 

9.5

 

 

9.5

 

Acquisition costs

 

8.5

 

34.1

 

2.3

 

45.0

 

 

45.0

 

Operating expenses

 

52.3

 

14.5

 

1.3

 

68.0

 

 

68.0

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

58.9

 

$

64.4

 

$

6.0

 

$

129.1

 

$

(13.5

)

$

115.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

30.8

 

$

30.0

 

$

16.7

 

$

77.5

 

$

13.5

 

$

91.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(2.2

)%

13.9

%

(19.4

)%

3.2

%

 

 

(3.3

)%

Expense ratio

 

67.8

%

54.3

%

45.7

%

59.2

%

 

 

59.2

%

Combined ratio

 

65.6

%

68.2

%

26.3

%

62.4

%

 

 

55.9

%

 

 

 

Year Ended December 31, 2005

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

20.0

 

$

74.0

 

$

 

$

94.0

 

 

 

$

94.0

 

U.S. structured finance

 

92.9

 

18.9

 

 

111.8

 

 

 

111.8

 

International

 

32.6

 

34.9

 

13.1

 

80.5

 

 

 

80.5

 

Total PVP

 

$

145.5

 

$

127.8

 

$

13.1

 

$

286.3

 

 

 

$

286.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

96.2

 

$

98.0

 

$

25.7

 

$

219.9

 

$

32.2

 

$

252.1

 

Net written premiums

 

93.9

 

97.8

 

25.7

 

217.3

 

 

217.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

74.5

 

105.6

 

18.6

 

198.7

 

 

198.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(2.2

)

(61.3

)

(3.7

)

(67.2

)

(2.4

)

(69.6

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

4.8

 

8.0

 

12.9

 

 

12.9

 

Acquisition costs

 

6.3

 

36.9

 

2.0

 

45.3

 

 

45.3

 

Operating expenses

 

44.3

 

13.8

 

1.2

 

59.0

 

 

59.0

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

48.4

 

$

(5.9

)

$

7.5

 

$

49.9

 

$

(2.4

)

$

47.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

26.1

 

$

111.4

 

$

11.1

 

$

148.7

 

$

2.4

 

$

151.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(2.9

)%

(58.1

)%

(19.9

)%

(33.8

)%

 

 

(35.0

)%

Expense ratio

 

67.8

%

52.5

%

60.3

%

58.9

%

 

 

58.9

%

Combined ratio

 

64.9

%

(5.6

)%

40.4

%

25.1

%

 

 

23.9

%


(1)             Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.  PVP for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on facultative business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a current quarter basis effective Q1 2006; 2005 and prior amounts were reported on a one-quarter lag.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

5




Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Full Year

 

Full Year

 

 

 

1Q-05

 

2Q-05

 

3Q-05

 

4Q-05

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

2005

 

2006

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a)

 

$

37.5

 

$

22.7

 

$

39.4

 

$

46.0

 

$

41.6

 

$

98.8

 

$

90.9

 

$

70.8

 

$

145.5

 

$

302.2

 

Less: Present value of installment premiums (a)

 

35.8

 

17.6

 

33.0

 

38.7

 

33.2

 

53.1

 

69.4

 

48.6

 

125.1

 

204.3

 

Upfront gross written premiums (GWP)

 

1.7

 

5.1

 

6.3

 

7.3

 

8.5

 

45.7

 

21.5

 

22.2

 

20.3

 

97.9

 

Plus: Installment GWP

 

22.1

 

15.8

 

18.6

 

19.3

 

21.8

 

22.7

 

20.4

 

26.5

 

75.8

 

91.3

 

Financial guaranty direct GWP

 

$

23.8

 

$

20.9

 

$

24.9

 

$

26.6

 

$

30.2

 

$

68.4

 

$

41.9

 

$

48.7

 

$

96.2

 

$

189.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

23.8

 

$

20.9

 

$

24.9

 

$

26.6

 

$

30.2

 

$

68.4

 

$

41.9

 

$

48.7

 

$

96.2

 

$

189.2

 

Net written premiums

 

23.1

 

20.4

 

24.2

 

26.3

 

29.7

 

67.8

 

41.5

 

48.0

 

93.9

 

187.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

0.2

 

0.5

 

0.3

 

1.2

 

1.3

 

1.5

 

2.0

 

2.0

 

2.2

 

6.7

 

Structured finance

 

20.2

 

15.5

 

18.0

 

18.6

 

19.4

 

19.8

 

19.8

 

24.0

 

72.3

 

83.0

 

Total net earned premiums

 

20.4

 

16.0

 

18.3

 

19.8

 

20.7

 

21.2

 

21.8

 

26.0

 

74.5

 

89.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

 

4.4

 

 

0.4

 

(2.0

)

(0.4

)

(0.3

)

0.9

 

4.8

 

(1.8

)

Portfolio

 

(1.5

)

0.6

 

(4.0

)

(2.1

)

0.2

 

(2.1

)

 

1.7

 

(7.0

)

(0.2

)

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(1.5

)

5.0

 

(4.0

)

(1.7

)

(1.8

)

(2.5

)

(0.3

)

2.6

 

(2.2

)

(2.0

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs

 

1.5

 

1.6

 

1.6

 

1.6

 

1.8

 

2.3

 

2.1

 

2.2

 

6.3

 

8.5

 

Operating expenses (1)

 

11.4

 

9.5

 

11.9

 

11.5

 

13.4

 

12.0

 

12.2

 

14.7

 

44.3

 

52.3

 

Total expenses

 

$

11.4

 

$

16.1

 

$

9.5

 

$

11.4

 

$

13.5

 

$

11.8

 

$

14.0

 

$

19.5

 

$

48.4

 

$

58.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

9.0

 

$

(0.1

)

$

8.8

 

$

8.4

 

$

7.2

 

$

9.4

 

$

7.7

 

$

6.5

 

$

26.1

 

$

30.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(7.1

)%

31.3

%

(21.9

)%

(8.6

)%

(8.7

)%

(11.7

)%

(1.3

)%

10.0

%

(2.9

)%

(2.2

)%

Expense ratio

 

63.2

%

69.1

%

73.7

%

66.3

%

73.8

%

67.4

%

65.7

%

65.1

%

67.8

%

67.8

%

Combined ratio

 

56.1

%

100.4

%

51.8

%

57.7

%

65.1

%

55.7

%

64.4

%

75.1

%

64.9

%

65.6

%


(1)  During 2006 the Company implemented a new operating expense methodology to more closely apply expenses to the individual operating segments. This new methodology was based on a comprehensive study and is based on departmental time estimates and headcount. 2005 amounts have been restated to show this new methodology on a comparative basis.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

6




Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions)

 

 

1Q-05

 

2Q-05

 

3Q-05

 

4Q-05

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

Full Year
2005

 

Full Year
2006

 

PVP(a):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

1.6

 

$

5.1

 

$

6.3

 

$

7.0

 

$

8.5

 

$

6.0

 

$

8.2

 

$

13.0

 

$

20.0

 

$

35.7

 

U.S. structured finance

 

31.0

 

16.1

 

25.3

 

20.5

 

27.6

 

41.0

 

45.7

 

32.5

 

92.9

 

146.8

 

International

 

4.9

 

1.5

 

7.7

 

18.4

 

5.6

 

51.8

 

36.9

 

25.3

 

32.6

 

119.7

 

Total

 

$

37.5

 

$

22.7

 

$

39.4

 

$

46.0

 

$

41.6

 

$

98.8

 

$

90.9

 

$

70.8

 

$

145.5

 

302.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

77

 

$

262

 

$

224

 

$

383

 

$

283

 

$

326

 

$

423

 

$

628

 

$

947

 

$

1,660

 

U.S. structured finance

 

1,173

 

2,159

 

4,635

 

4,966

 

4,446

 

10,943

 

4,968

 

6,486

 

12,933

 

26,843

 

International

 

265

 

102

 

353

 

2,569

 

648

 

2,210

 

5,375

 

5,007

 

3,288

 

13,240

 

Total

 

$

1,515

 

$

2,524

 

$

5,212

 

$

7,918

 

$

5,377

 

$

13,479

 

$

10,766

 

$

12,121

 

$

17,169

 

$

41,743

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

2,238

 

$

2,421

 

$

2,641

 

$

3,022

 

$

3,250

 

$

2,471

 

$

2,878

 

$

3,499

 

$

3,022

 

$

3,499

 

U.S. structured finance

 

24,589

 

23,873

 

26,781

 

28,917

 

31,559

 

38,847

 

39,191

 

44,467

 

28,917

 

44,467

 

International

 

3,763

 

3,725

 

3,975

 

6,400

 

7,215

 

9,806

 

14,865

 

19,868

 

6,400

 

19,868

 

Total

 

$

30,590

 

$

30,019

 

$

33,397

 

$

38,338

 

$

42,024

 

$

51,124

 

$

56,935

 

$

67,834

 

$

38,338

 

$

67,834

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net present value of installment premiums in force:(d)

 

$

238.3

 

$

216.4

 

$

230.4

 

$

249.6

 

$

265.7

 

$

300.5

 

$

358.4

 

$

408.2

 

$

249.6

 

$

408.2

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

23.0

 

27.0

 

33.2

 

39.6

 

48.6

 

95.2

 

114.9

 

136.8

 

39.6

 

136.8

 


Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

7




Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment(1) (1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

1Q-05

 

2Q-05

 

3Q-05

 

4Q-05

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

Full Year
2005

 

Full Year
2006

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a)

 

$

32.1

 

$

35.2

 

$

22.5

 

$

37.9

 

$

20.1

 

$

49.6

 

$

36.5

 

$

45.2

 

$

127.8

 

$

151.5

 

Less: Present value of installment premiums (a)

 

12.1

 

20.7

 

7.2

 

18.5

 

11.0

 

17.7

 

16.8

 

20.8

 

58.5

 

66.3

 

Upfront gross written premiums (GWP)

 

20.0

 

14.6

 

15.3

 

19.4

 

9.1

 

31.9

 

19.8

 

24.4

 

69.2

 

85.2

 

Less: Upfront premium due to novations (2)

 

 

18.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

18.4

 

 

Plus: Installment GWP

 

14.0

 

12.0

 

12.0

 

9.1

 

9.7

 

9.8

 

9.9

 

9.3

 

47.2

 

38.7

 

Financial guaranty reinsurance GWP

 

$

34.0

 

$

8.2

 

$

27.3

 

$

28.5

 

$

18.8

 

$

41.7

 

$

29.7

 

$

33.7

 

$

98.0

 

$

123.9

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Treaty

 

$

22.4

 

$

4.3

 

$

21.0

 

$

24.6

 

$

12.0

 

$

29.1

 

$

22.4

 

$

19.0

 

$

72.3

 

$

82.4

 

Facultative

 

11.6

 

3.9

 

6.3

 

3.9

 

6.8

 

12.6

 

7.3

 

14.7

 

25.7

 

41.5

 

Total gross written premiums

 

$

34.0

 

$

8.2

 

$

27.3

 

$

28.5

 

$

18.8

 

$

41.7

 

$

29.7

 

$

33.7

 

$

98.0

 

$

123.9

 

Net written premiums

 

34.0

 

8.0

 

27.3

 

28.5

 

18.5

 

41.3

 

29.7

 

33.7

 

97.8

 

123.2

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scheduled net earned premiums

 

21.6

 

23.6

 

27.2

 

21.3

 

19.7

 

21.4

 

21.3

 

20.8

 

93.5

 

83.2

 

Net earned premiums from refundings

 

1.4

 

3.6

 

4.8

 

2.2

 

3.6

 

1.7

 

4.1

 

1.8

 

12.1

 

11.2

 

Total net earned premiums

 

23.0

 

27.2

 

32.0

 

23.5

 

23.3

 

23.1

 

25.4

 

22.6

 

105.6

 

94.4

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

(7.5

)

(60.4

)

(0.2

)

4.0

 

2.3

 

1.8

 

(1.2

)

2.4

 

(64.1

)

5.4

 

Portfolio

 

0.4

 

(3.7

)

4.5

 

1.6

 

0.5

 

3.9

 

3.0

 

0.4

 

2.8

 

7.8

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(7.1

)

(64.1

)

4.3

 

5.6

 

2.8

 

5.7

 

1.8

 

2.8

 

(61.3

)

13.1

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

2.3

 

1.1

 

1.4

 

0.4

 

1.0

 

0.7

 

0.6

 

4.8

 

2.7

 

Acquisition costs

 

8.1

 

9.5

 

11.0

 

8.3

 

8.7

 

8.5

 

8.9

 

7.9

 

36.9

 

34.1

 

Operating expenses (3)

 

2.8

 

4.7

 

2.9

 

3.4

 

3.4

 

3.4

 

3.9

 

3.8

 

13.8

 

14.5

 

Total expenses

 

$

3.8

 

$

(47.6

)

$

19.2

 

$

18.7

 

$

15.3

 

$

18.5

 

$

15.3

 

$

15.2

 

$

(5.9

)

$

64.4

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

19.2

 

$

74.8

 

$

12.8

 

$

4.8

 

$

8.0

 

$

4.6

 

$

10.1

 

$

7.4

 

$

111.4

 

$

30.0

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(30.9

)%

(235.7

)%

13.3

%

23.9

%

12.0

%

24.6

%

7.1

%

12.6

%

(58.1

)%

13.9

%

Expense ratio

 

47.4

%

60.7

%

46.8

%

55.8

%

53.6

%

55.4

%

53.3

%

54.7

%

52.5

%

54.3

%

Combined ratio

 

16.5

%

(175.0

)%

60.1

%

79.7

%

65.6

%

80.0

%

60.4

%

67.3

%

(5.6

)%

68.2

%


(1)             Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.  PVP for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on facultative business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a current quarter basis effective Q1 2006; 2005 and prior amounts were reported on a one-quarter lag.

(2)             Relates to reassumption by FSA of approximately $820 million par value of healthcare related business.

(3)             During 2006 the Company implemented a new operating expense methodology to more closely apply expenses to the individual operating segments. This new methodology was based on a comprehensive study and is based on departmental time estimates and headcount. 2005 amounts have been restated to show this new methodology on a comparative basis.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

8




Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1)(2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Full Year

 

Full Year

 

 

 

1Q-05

 

2Q-05

 

3Q-05

 

4Q-05

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

2005

 

2006

 

PVP (a):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

18.9

 

$

15.4

 

$

16.5

 

$

23.1

 

$

8.5

 

$

29.7

 

$

11.4

 

$

30.4

 

$

74.0

 

80.0

 

U.S. structured finance

 

3.1

 

4.9

 

2.3

 

8.7

 

3.4

 

2.0

 

3.8

 

4.5

 

18.9

 

13.5

 

International

 

10.1

 

15.0

 

3.7

 

6.1

 

8.3

 

17.9

 

21.4

 

10.4

 

34.9

 

57.9

 

Total

 

$

32.1

 

$

35.2

 

$

22.5

 

$

37.9

 

$

20.1

 

$

49.6

 

$

36.5

 

$

45.2

 

$

127.8

 

$

151.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

1,965

 

$

265

 

$

1,155

 

$

1,710

 

$

1,631

 

$

718

 

$

1,475

 

$

1,367

 

$

5,095

 

$

5,192

 

U.S. structured finance

 

1,718

 

308

 

309

 

616

 

444

 

311

 

453

 

127

 

2,951

 

1,335

 

International

 

241

 

418

 

186

 

260

 

677

 

775

 

800

 

371

 

1,106

 

2,622

 

Total

 

$

3,924

 

$

991

 

$

1,650

 

$

2,586

 

$

2,752

 

$

1,804

 

$

2,727

 

$

1,865

 

$

9,151

 

$

9,149

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

49,318

 

$

47,878

 

$

47,696

 

$

47,748

 

$

48,309

 

$

48,316

 

$

48,335

 

$

48,836

 

$

47,748

 

$

48,836

 

U.S. structured finance

 

10,404

 

10,325

 

9,686

 

9,661

 

9,387

 

8,314

 

8,046

 

7,116

 

9,661

 

7,116

 

International

 

6,082

 

6,645

 

6,540

 

6,719

 

7,196

 

7,857

 

8,263

 

8,510

 

6,719

 

8,510

 

Total

 

$

65,804

 

$

64,848

 

$

63,922

 

$

64,127

 

$

64,893

 

$

64,487

 

$

64,644

 

$

64,462

 

$

64,127

 

$

64,462

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net present value of installment premiums in force (d)

 

$

142.9

 

$

152.3

 

$

147.4

 

$

156.1

 

$

153.8

 

$

158.9

 

$

164.5

 

$

164.9

 

$

156.1

 

$

164.9

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

454.8

 

435.6

 

430.9

 

436.0

 

431.2

 

449.4

 

453.8

 

464.8

 

436.0

 

464.8

 


(1)  Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.  PVP for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on facultative business in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a current quarter basis effective Q1 2006; 2005 and prior amounts were reported on a one-quarter lag.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

9




Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Mortgage Guaranty Segment
(dollars in millions)

 

 

1Q-05

 

2Q-05

 

3Q-05

 

4Q-05

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

Full Year
2005

 

Full Year
2006

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a)

 

$

13.1

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

13.1

 

$

 

Less: Present value of installment premiums (a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Upfront gross written premiums (GWP)

 

13.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13.1

 

 

Plus: Installment GWP

 

6.3

 

1.9

 

1.7

 

2.7

 

2.6

 

1.2

 

1.9

 

2.7

 

12.7

 

8.4

 

Mortgage guaranty GWP

 

$

19.4

 

$

1.9

 

$

1.7

 

$

2.7

 

$

2.6

 

$

1.2

 

$

1.9

 

$

2.7

 

$

25.7

 

$

8.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

19.4

 

$

1.9

 

$

1.7

 

$

2.7

 

$

2.6

 

$

1.2

 

$

1.9

 

$

2.7

 

$

25.7

 

$

8.4

 

Net written premiums

 

19.4

 

1.9

 

1.7

 

2.7

 

2.6

 

1.2

 

1.9

 

2.7

 

25.7

 

8.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

4.6

 

5.1

 

4.3

 

4.6

 

4.2

 

3.7

 

4.9

 

9.9

 

18.6

 

22.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

0.1

 

(0.1

)

0.2

 

(0.2

)

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

(0.1

)

 

0.1

 

Portfolio and IBNR

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

(4.0

)

(0.2

)

0.3

 

0.3

 

(4.9

)

(3.7

)

(4.5

)

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

0.2

 

 

0.3

 

(4.2

)

(0.2

)

0.4

 

0.4

 

(5.0

)

(3.7

)

(4.4

)

Profit commission expense

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

0.9

 

5.1

 

0.9

 

0.7

 

0.9

 

4.3

 

8.0

 

6.8

 

Acquisition costs

 

0.5

 

0.6

 

0.4

 

0.4

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

1.3

 

2.0

 

2.3

 

Operating expenses(1)

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.4

 

0.3

 

1.2

 

1.3

 

Total expenses

 

$

2.0

 

$

1.9

 

$

1.9

 

$

1.7

 

$

1.3

 

$

1.7

 

$

2.0

 

$

0.9

 

$

7.5

 

$

6.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

2.6

 

$

3.2

 

$

2.4

 

$

2.9

 

$

2.8

 

$

2.0

 

$

2.9

 

$

8.9

 

$

11.1

 

$

16.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

4.3

%

 

6.9

%

(92.1

)%

(3.7

)%

9.4

%

8.2

%

(50.7

)%

(19.9

)%

(19.4

)%

Expense ratio

 

39.1

%

37.5

%

37.5

%

129.1

%

36.1

%

36.4

%

31.9

%

60.2

%

60.3

%

45.7

%

Combined ratio

 

43.4

%

37.5

%

44.4

%

37.0

%

32.4

%

45.8

%

40.1

%

9.5

%

40.4

%

26.3

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Risk in force

 

$

2,582

 

$

2,547

 

$

2,389

 

$

2,332

 

$

1,970

 

$

1,960

 

$

2,003

 

$

1,822

 

$

2,332

 

$

1,822

 

Risk written

 

419

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

419

 

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

57.5

 

54.2

 

51.5

 

49.7

 

48.1

 

45.6

 

42.6

 

35.4

 

49.7

 

35.4

 


(1)  During 2006 the Company implemented a new operating expense methodology to more closely apply expenses to the individual operating segments. This new methodology was based on a comprehensive study and is based on departmental time estimates and headcount. 2005 amounts have been restated to show this new methodology on a comparative basis.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

10




Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Other Segment

(dollars in millions)

 

 

1Q-05

 

2Q-05

 

3Q-05

 

4Q-05

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

Full Year
2005

 

Full Year
2006

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

0.9

 

$

9.5

 

$

21.6

 

$

0.4

 

$

3.8

 

$

0.1

 

$

0.1

 

$

0.1

 

$

32.2

 

$

4.1

 

Net written premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(1.1

)

 

(1.3

)

 

(1.2

)

(10.1

)

(1.0

)

(1.2

)

(2.4

)

(13.5

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total expenses

 

$

(1.1

)

$

 

$

(1.3

)

$

 

$

(1.2

)

$

(10.1

)

$

(1.0

)

$

(1.2

)

$

(2.4

)

$

(13.5

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

1.1

 

$

 

$

1.3

 

$

 

$

1.2

 

$

10.1

 

$

1.0

 

$

1.2

 

$

2.4

 

$

13.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expense ratio

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Combined ratio

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity layer credit protection

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

Trade credit reinsurance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Title reinsurance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Auto residual value reinsurance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total net earned premiums

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity layer credit protection

 

$

1.1

 

$

 

$

1.3

 

$

 

$

1.2

 

$

10.1

 

$

1.0

 

$

1.2

 

$

2.4

 

$

13.5

 

Trade credit reinsurance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Title reinsurance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Auto residual value reinsurance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total underwriting gain

 

$

1.1

 

$

 

$

1.3

 

$

 

$

1.2

 

$

10.1

 

$

1.0

 

$

1.2

 

$

2.4

 

$

13.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Loss and LAE Reserves by Segment/Type and Analysis of Net Claims Paid

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2006

 

Reserves by segment and type:

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Mortgage
Guaranty

 

Total
Financial
Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Case

 

$

1.0

 

$

36.1

 

$

0.1

 

$

37.2

 

$

6.8

 

$

44.0

 

IBNR

 

 

 

 

 

7.4

 

7.4

 

Portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits

 

6.1

 

29.1

 

2.2

 

37.4

 

 

37.4

 

Portfolio reserves associated with CMC credits

 

2.2

 

29.6

 

 

31.8

 

 

31.8

 

Total

 

$

9.3

 

$

94.8

 

$

2.3

 

$

106.4

 

$

14.2

 

$

120.6

 

 

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2005

 

Reserves by segment and type:

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty 
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty 
Reinsurance

 

Mortgage 
Guaranty

 

Total
Financial 
Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Case

 

$

4.5

 

$

40.7

 

$

0.3

 

$

45.5

 

$

7.6

 

$

53.1

 

IBNR

 

 

 

4.1

 

4.1

 

7.5

 

11.6

 

Portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits

 

8.0

 

26.8

 

2.6

 

37.3

 

 

37.3

 

Portfolio reserves associated with CMC credits

 

0.6

 

25.7

 

 

26.4

 

 

26.4

 

Total

 

$

13.1

 

$

93.2

 

$

7.0

 

$

113.3

 

$

15.1

 

$

128.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Analysis of net claims paid

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2006

 

2005

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net claims paid by segment:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

$

1.7

 

$

4.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

11.7

 

(66.6

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage Guaranty

 

0.3

 

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Financial Guaranty

 

$

13.7

 

$

(61.4

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums by segment:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

$

89.7

 

$

74.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

94.4

 

105.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage Guaranty

 

22.7

 

18.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Financial Guaranty

 

$

206.7

 

$

198.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratio of net claims paid by segment:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

1.9

%

6.3

 %

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

12.4

%

(63.1

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage Guaranty

 

1.3

%

2.7

 %

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Financial Guaranty

 

6.6

%

(30.9

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12




Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Investment Portfolio

as of December 31, 2006

(dollars in millions)

 

 

Amortized
Cost 

 

Pre-Tax
Book 
Yield

 

After-Tax
Book 
Yield 

 

Fair Value 

 

Annualized
Investment 
Income 

 

Fixed maturity securities available for sale:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies

 

100.6

 

5.0

%

4.1

%

102.9

 

5.0

 

Agency obligations

 

155.9

 

5.4

%

5.0

%

159.2

 

8.4

 

Foreign government securities

 

45.1

 

4.8

%

3.2

%

44.8

 

2.2

 

Obligations of states and political subdivisions

 

383.4

 

4.6

%

4.4

%

397.2

 

17.6

 

Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions

 

491.3

 

5.0

%

4.7

%

520.2

 

24.6

 

Corporate securities

 

134.8

 

5.7

%

4.8

%

138.1

 

7.7

 

Mortgage-backed securities:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pass-thrus

 

655.8

 

5.3

%

4.5

%

651.3

 

34.8

 

PACs

 

76.7

 

4.8

%

4.5

%

75.3

 

3.7

 

Asset-backed securities

 

242.8

 

5.0

%

4.6

%

242.1

 

12.1

 

Total fixed maturity securities available for sale

 

2,286.4

 

5.1

%

4.5

%

2,331.1

 

116.1

 

Short-term investments

 

134.1

 

5.1

%

3.7

%

134.1

 

6.8

 

Total investments

 

$

2,420.4

 

5.1

%

4.5

%

$

2,465.1

 

$

122.9

 

 

Ratings distribution:(1)

 

Fair Value

 

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Treasury and U.S. government obligations

 

$

102.9

 

4.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

Agency obligations

 

159.2

 

6.8

%

 

 

 

 

 

AAA/Aaa

 

1,646.4

 

70.6

%

 

 

 

 

 

AA/Aa

 

313.6

 

13.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

A/A

 

109.0

 

4.7

%

 

 

 

 

 

BBB/Baa

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

2,331.1

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Duration of investment portfolio (in years):

 

 

 

3.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


(1)             Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody’s Investor Services and Standard & Poor’s classifications.

13




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Net Exposure Amortization(1)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

Estimated Net
Debt Service 
Amortization 

 

Ending Net
Debt Service
Outstanding 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

 

 

 

 

2006 (4th Qtr.)

 

 

 

$

71,812

 

2007

 

$

6,202

 

65,610

 

2008

 

5,448

 

60,162

 

2009

 

2,717

 

57,445

 

2010

 

7,080

 

50,365

 

2011

 

5,565

 

44,800

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007-2011

 

27,012

 

44,800

 

2012-2016

 

30,900

 

13,900

 

2017-2021

 

4,923

 

8,977

 

2022-2026

 

2,061

 

6,916

 

After 2026

 

6,916

 

 

Total

 

$

71,812

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

 

 

 

 

2006 (4th Qtr.)

 

 

 

$

108,362

 

2007

 

$

6,115

 

102,247

 

2008

 

5,509

 

96,738

 

2009

 

5,774

 

90,964

 

2010

 

5,266

 

85,698

 

2011

 

5,037

 

80,661

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007-2011

 

27,701

 

80,661

 

2012-2016

 

23,162

 

57,499

 

2017-2021

 

20,062

 

37,437

 

2022-2026

 

15,875

 

21,562

 

After 2026

 

21,562

 

 

Total

 

$

108,362

 

 

 

 

Total Financial Guaranty

 

 

 

 

 

2006 (4th Qtr.)

 

 

 

$

180,174

 

2007

 

$

12,317

 

167,857

 

2008

 

10,957

 

156,900

 

2009

 

8,491

 

148,409

 

2010

 

12,346

 

136,063

 

2011

 

10,602

 

125,461

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007-2011

 

54,713

 

125,461

 

2012-2016

 

54,062

 

71,399

 

2017-2021

 

24,985

 

46,414

 

2022-2026

 

17,936

 

28,478

 

After 2026

 

28,478

 

 

Total

 

$

180,174

 

 

 


(1)             Represents amortization of existing guaranteed portfolio (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of December 31, 2006. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations.

14




Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Future Installment Premiums

(dollars in millions)

 

 

Net Unearned
Premiums (1)

 

Net Unearned
Premium
Amortization

 

Estimated
Future
Installments

 

Total
Premium
Earnings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2006 (4th Qtr.)

 

$

136.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007

 

117.1

 

$

19.7

 

$

79.3

 

$

99.0

 

2008

 

111.1

 

6.0

 

72.3

 

78.3

 

2009

 

105.4

 

5.7

 

65.4

 

71.1

 

2010

 

100.0

 

5.4

 

58.2

 

63.6

 

2011

 

94.9

 

5.1

 

53.5

 

58.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007-2011

 

94.9

 

41.9

 

328.7

 

370.6

 

2012-2016

 

72.4

 

22.5

 

148.8

 

171.3

 

2017-2021

 

54.5

 

17.9

 

31.7

 

49.6

 

2022-2026

 

40.0

 

14.5

 

12.4

 

26.9

 

After 2026

 

 

40.0

 

16.8

 

56.8

 

Total

 

 

 

$

136.8

 

$

538.4

 

$

675.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2006 (4th Qtr.)

 

$

464.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007

 

423.0

 

$

41.8

 

$

29.5

 

$

71.3

 

2008

 

388.8

 

34.2

 

27.2

 

61.4

 

2009

 

356.4

 

32.4

 

26.2

 

58.6

 

2010

 

325.9

 

30.5

 

25.3

 

55.8

 

2011

 

297.1

 

28.8

 

23.9

 

52.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007-2011

 

297.1

 

167.7

 

132.1

 

299.8

 

2012-2016

 

180.5

 

116.6

 

93.1

 

209.7

 

2017-2021

 

103.8

 

76.7

 

63.7

 

140.4

 

2022-2026

 

54.1

 

49.7

 

48.6

 

98.3

 

After 2026

 

 

54.1

 

62.9

 

117.0

 

Total

 

 

 

$

464.8

 

$

400.4

 

$

865.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Financial Guaranty

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2006 (4th Qtr.)

 

$

601.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007

 

540.1

 

$

61.5

 

$

108.8

 

$

170.3

 

2008

 

499.9

 

40.2

 

99.5

 

139.7

 

2009

 

461.8

 

38.1

 

91.6

 

129.7

 

2010

 

425.9

 

35.9

 

83.5

 

119.4

 

2011

 

392.0

 

33.9

 

77.4

 

111.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007-2011

 

392.0

 

209.6

 

460.8

 

670.4

 

2012-2016

 

252.9

 

139.1

 

241.9

 

381.0

 

2017-2021

 

158.3

 

94.6

 

95.4

 

190.0

 

2022-2026

 

94.1

 

64.2

 

61.0

 

125.2

 

After 2026

 

 

94.1

 

79.7

 

173.8

 

Total

 

 

 

$

601.6

 

$

938.8

 

$

1,540.4

 


(1)             Unearned premium amounts are U.S. GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums.

15




Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 6)

As of December 31, 2006

(dollars in millions)

Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type

 

 

Financial Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

Sector

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating (7)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating (7)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating (7)

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

959

 

A+

 

$

11,741

 

A+

 

$

12,700

 

A+

 

Tax backed

 

873

 

A-

 

10,939

 

A+

 

11,812

 

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

120

 

BBB+

 

9,553

 

A+

 

9,673

 

A+

 

Healthcare

 

1,099

 

A-

 

5,481

 

A

 

6,580

 

A

 

Transportation

 

42

 

AAA

 

6,260

 

A

 

6,302

 

A

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

38

 

AAA

 

1,542

 

BBB+

 

1,580

 

BBB+

 

Higher education

 

356

 

BBB

 

926

 

A+

 

1,282

 

A

 

Housing

 

 

 

1,083

 

AA-

 

1,083

 

AA-

 

Structured municipal (1)

 

 

 

578

 

AAA

 

578

 

AAA

 

Other public finance (2)

 

12

 

BBB

 

733

 

A

 

745

 

A

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

3,499

 

A-

 

$

48,836

 

A+

 

$

52,336

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDOs (3)

 

$

25,317

 

AAA

 

$

1,508

 

AA+

 

$

26,825

 

AAA

 

Commercial receivables (4)

 

6,049

 

AAA

 

1,830

 

BBB+

 

7,879

 

AA

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

5,948

 

AAA

 

594

 

A

 

6,542

 

AA+

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

3,357

 

A

 

1,492

 

BBB+

 

4,849

 

A

 

Consumer receivables (5)

 

1,865

 

AA+

 

798

 

BBB

 

2,663

 

AA-

 

Other structured finance (6)

 

1,931

 

AA+

 

894

 

AA-

 

2,825

 

AA

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

44,467

 

AA+

 

$

7,116

 

A

 

$

51,583

 

AA+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other structured finance

 

$

8,071

 

AA

 

$

1,827

 

A

 

$

9,898

 

AA-

 

Infrastructure

 

5,516

 

AAA

 

2,740

 

BBB

 

8,256

 

AA-

 

Public finance

 

3,107

 

A+

 

2,875

 

BBB+

 

5,982

 

A

 

CDOs (3)

 

3,174

 

AAA

 

1,068

 

AAA

 

4,242

 

AAA

 

Total international

 

$

19,868

 

AA

 

$

8,510

 

A-

 

$

28,378

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

67,834

 

AA+

 

$

64,462

 

A

 

$

132,296

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage guaranty risk in force

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

1,822

 

N/A

 


(1)  Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

(2)  Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

(3)  Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

(4)  Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

(5)  Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

(6)  Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.

(7)  Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

16




Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

Gross Par Written by Asset Type

 

 

Financial Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

Sector

 

 

 

4Q-06

 

2006

 

4Q-06

 

2006

 

4Q-06

 

2006

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tax backed

 

$

151

 

$

452

 

$

405

 

$

1,488

 

$

556

 

$

1,940

 

General obligation

 

78

 

262

 

459

 

1,677

 

537

 

1,939

 

Healthcare

 

399

 

780

 

31

 

597

 

430

 

1,377

 

Municipal utilities

 

 

27

 

121

 

722

 

121

 

749

 

Transportation

 

 

 

290

 

363

 

290

 

363

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

 

 

50

 

220

 

50

 

220

 

Higher education

 

 

139

 

11

 

68

 

11

 

207

 

Housing

 

 

 

 

29

 

 

29

 

Structured municipal (1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other public finance (2)

 

 

 

 

28

 

 

28

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

628

 

$

1,660

 

$

1,367

 

$

5,192

 

$

1,995

 

$

6,852

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDOs (3)

 

$

2,024

 

$

13,582

 

$

44

 

$

272

 

$

2,068

 

$

13,854

 

Subprime mortgage—backed and home equity

 

1,100

 

4,600

 

10

 

25

 

1,110

 

4,625

 

Commercial receivables (4)

 

1,311

 

4,314

 

(7

)

246

 

1,304

 

4,560

 

Consumer receivables (5)

 

63

 

1,487

 

12

 

179

 

75

 

1,666

 

Prime mortgage—backed and home equity

 

802

 

1,123

 

34

 

496

 

836

 

1,619

 

Other structured finance (6)

 

1,186

 

1,737

 

34

 

117

 

1,220

 

1,854

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

6,486

 

$

26,843

 

$

127

 

$

1,335

 

$

6,613

 

$

28,178

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Infrastructure

 

$

2,874

 

$

4,448

 

$

6

 

$

957

 

$

2,880

 

$

5,405

 

Other structured finance

 

1,489

 

4,450

 

(1

)

187

 

1,488

 

4,637

 

Public finance

 

389

 

2,129

 

303

 

1,058

 

692

 

3,187

 

CDOs (3)

 

255

 

2,213

 

63

 

420

 

318

 

2,633

 

Total international

 

$

5,007

 

$

13,240

 

$

371

 

$

2,622

 

$

5,378

 

$

15,862

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total gross par written

 

$

12,121

 

$

41,743

 

$

1,865

 

$

9,149

 

$

13,986

 

$

50,892

 


(1)             Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

(2)             Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

(3)             Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

(4)             Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

(5)             Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

(6)             Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.

17




Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2006

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

Ratings (1)

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

52,606

 

77.6

%

$

4,448

 

6.9

%

$

57,054

 

43.1

%

AA/Aa

 

4,028

 

5.9

%

18,955

 

29.4

%

22,983

 

17.4

%

A/A

 

5,757

 

8.5

%

27,065

 

42.0

%

32,822

 

24.9

%

BBB/Baa

 

5,351

 

7.9

%

12,831

 

19.9

%

18,182

 

13.7

%

Below investment grade

 

92

 

0.1

%

1,163

 

1.8

%

1,255

 

0.9

%

Total exposures

 

$

67,834

 

100.0

%

$

64,462

 

100.0

%

$

132,296

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2005

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

Ratings (1)

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

29,117

 

75.9

%

$

5,375

 

8.4

%

$

34,492

 

33.7

%

AA/Aa

 

2,543

 

6.6

%

17,435

 

27.2

%

19,978

 

19.5

%

A/A

 

2,251

 

5.9

%

28,007

 

43.7

%

30,258

 

29.5

%

BBB/Baa

 

4,391

 

11.5

%

12,013

 

18.7

%

16,404

 

16.0

%

Below investment grade

 

36

 

0.1

%

1,297

 

2.0

%

1,333

 

1.3

%

Total exposures

 

$

38,338

 

100.0

%

$

64,127

 

100.0

%

$

102,465

 

100.0

%


(1)             Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

18




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (4 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

Geographic distribution of financial guaranty portfolio, as of December 31, 2006

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

U.S.:

 

 

 

 

 

California

 

$

7,585

 

5.7

%

New York

 

5,859

 

4.4

%

Texas

 

3,238

 

2.4

%

Illinois

 

3,025

 

2.3

%

Florida

 

2,805

 

2.1

%

Massachusetts

 

2,645

 

2.0

%

Pennsylvania

 

2,145

 

1.6

%

Washington

 

1,988

 

1.5

%

New Jersey

 

1,983

 

1.5

%

Puerto Rico

 

1,737

 

1.3

%

Other states

 

19,325

 

14.7

%

Mortgage and structured (multiple states)

 

51,583

 

39.0

%

Total U.S.

 

$

103,918

 

78.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

International:

 

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom

 

$

18,931

 

14.3

%

Germany

 

3,023

 

2.3

%

Australia

 

1,106

 

0.8

%

Turkey

 

651

 

0.5

%

Ireland

 

423

 

0.3

%

Other

 

4,244

 

3.3

%

Total International

 

$

28,378

 

21.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

132,296

 

100.0

%

 

19




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (5 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

Distribution by ratings of CDO exposure

 

 

December 31, 2006

 

December 31, 2005

 

Ratings (1)

 

 

 

Net Par 
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

27,385

 

88.1

%

$

19,615

 

85.3

%

AA/Aa

 

3,511

 

11.3

%

2,800

 

12.2

%

A/A

 

113

 

0.4

%

326

 

1.4

%

BBB/Baa

 

19

 

0.1

%

189

 

0.8

%

Below investment grade

 

39

 

0.1

%

63

 

0.3

%

Total exposures

 

$

31,067

 

100.0

%

$

22,993

 

100.0

%

 

 

Distribution of CDOs by year of issue as of December 31, 2006

 

 

Net Par 
Outstanding

 

%

 

 

 

 

 

2000 and prior

 

$

342

 

1.1

%

 

 

 

 

2001

 

671

 

2.2

%

 

 

 

 

2002

 

3,521

 

11.3

%

 

 

 

 

2003

 

3,660

 

11.8

%

 

 

 

 

2004

 

1,561

 

5.0

%

 

 

 

 

2005

 

7,572

 

24.4

%

 

 

 

 

2006

 

13,740

 

44.2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

31,067

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Distribution of CDOs by underlying asset type as of December 31, 2006

Asset Type

 

 

 

Net Par 
Outstanding

 

%

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate debt obligations

 

$

28,886

 

93.0

%

 

 

 

 

CDO of ABS

 

2,095

 

6.7

%

 

 

 

 

Emerging market

 

86

 

0.3

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

31,067

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 


(1)           Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

20




Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (6 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

Historical Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type

 

 

As of December 31,

 

 

 

2006

 

2005

 

2004

 

Sector

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating 
(7)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating 
(7)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg
Rating 
(7)

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

12,700

 

A+

 

$

11,965

 

A+

 

$

11,870

 

A+

 

Tax backed

 

11,812

 

A+

 

10,671

 

A+

 

10,083

 

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

9,673

 

A+

 

10,378

 

A+

 

10,731

 

A+

 

Healthcare

 

6,580

 

A

 

6,003

 

A

 

6,270

 

A

 

Transportation

 

6,302

 

A

 

6,407

 

A

 

5,938

 

A

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

1,580

 

BBB+

 

1,431

 

A-

 

1,280

 

A-

 

Higher education

 

1,282

 

A

 

1,177

 

A

 

947

 

A+

 

Housing

 

1,083

 

AA-

 

1,148

 

AA-

 

1,138

 

AA-

 

Structured municipal (1)

 

578

 

AAA

 

829

 

AAA

 

1,366

 

AAA

 

Other public finance (2)

 

745

 

A

 

760

 

A

 

720

 

A

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

52,335

 

A+

 

$

50,769

 

A+

 

$

50,343

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDOs (3)

 

$

26,825

 

AAA

 

$

20,270

 

AAA

 

$

15,038

 

AA+

 

Commercial receivables (4)

 

7,879

 

AA

 

4,358

 

AA-

 

3,778

 

AA-

 

Subprime mortgage—backed and home equity

 

6,542

 

AA+

 

4,396

 

AA

 

8,218

 

AA+

 

Prime mortgage—backed and home equity

 

4,849

 

A

 

5,451

 

A

 

2,625

 

AA-

 

Consumer receivables (5)

 

2,663

 

AA-

 

2,413

 

A

 

3,237

 

BBB+

 

Other structured finance (6)

 

2,825

 

AA

 

1,690

 

AA

 

2,148

 

AA-

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

51,583

 

AA+

 

$

38,578

 

AA

 

$

35,044

 

AA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other structured finance

 

$

9,898

 

AA-

 

$

5,480

 

A+

 

$

3,862

 

A+

 

Infrastructure

 

8,256

 

AA-

 

3,617

 

A-

 

1,496

 

BBB+

 

Public finance

 

5,982

 

A

 

1,299

 

A-

 

2,629

 

A-

 

CDOs (3)

 

4,242

 

AAA

 

2,722

 

AAA

 

2,218

 

AAA

 

Total international

 

$

28,378

 

AA-

 

$

13,118

 

A+

 

$

10,205

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

132,296

 

AA-

 

$

102,465

 

AA-

 

$

95,592

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage guaranty risk in force

 

$

1,822

 

N/A

 

$

2,332

 

N/A

 

$

2,325

 

N/A

 

 

Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio

 

 

 

2006

 

2005

 

2004

 

Ratings (7)

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

57,054

 

43.1

%

$

34,492

 

33.7

%

$

29,696

 

31.1

%

AA/Aa

 

22,983

 

17.4

%

19,978

 

19.5

%

19,856

 

20.8

%

A/A

 

32,822

 

24.9

%

30,258

 

29.5

%

31,394

 

32.8

%

BBB/Baa

 

18,182

 

13.7

%

16,404

 

16.0

%

13,137

 

13.7

%

Below investment grade

 

1,255

 

0.9

%

1,333

 

1.3

%

1,509

 

1.6

%

Total exposures

 

$

132,296

 

100.0

%

$

102,465

 

100.0

%

$

95,592

 

100.0

%


(1)             Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

(2)             Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

(3)             Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

(4)             Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

(5)             Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

(6)             Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.

(7)             Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

21




Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Non-Investment Grade Exposures

as of December 31, 2006

(dollars in millions)

Non-Investment Grade Exposures by:
Asset Type

 

 

 

Weighted Average
Remaining Life

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Average
Rating 
(1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Transportation

 

19.1

 

$

221.0

 

B+

 

General obligation

 

15.8

 

103.4

 

BB+

 

Tax backed

 

16.1

 

75.3

 

BB

 

Healthcare

 

10.8

 

59.4

 

B+

 

Municipal utilities

 

10.1

 

13.0

 

C

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

13.7

 

5.1

 

BB

 

Housing

 

13.2

 

4.0

 

B-

 

Other public finance

 

15.3

 

3.5

 

D

 

Higher education

 

 

 

 

Structured municipal

 

 

 

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

16.5

 

$

484.7

 

BB-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

8.0

 

$

237.1

 

BB-

 

Commercial receivables

 

5.2

 

211.7

 

B+

 

CDOs

 

4.3

 

39.2

 

B

 

Consumer receivables

 

1.5

 

3.0

 

BB

 

Other structured finance

 

2.1

 

0.1

 

B-

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

6.5

 

$

491.1

 

B+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Infrastructure

 

14.4

 

$

254.5

 

C

 

Other structured finance

 

9.0

 

25.0

 

B-

 

CDOs

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

 

 

 

Total international

 

13.9

 

$

279.5

 

CC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total non-investment grade exposures

 

12.0

 

$

1,255.3

 

CC

 

 

Top Ten Non-Investment Grade Exposures as of December 31, 2006

Name or Description

 

 

 

Average 
Rating 
(1)

 

Weighted
Average
Remaining Life

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Eurotunnel - Fixed-Link Finance & Fixed-Link Finance (2)

 

D

 

15.5

 

$

220

 

Public Finance Infrastructure Transaction

 

BB-

 

20.7

 

169

 

Structured Finance Domestic Auto Fleet Financing Transaction

 

BB+

 

2.3

 

133

 

Structured Finance Domestic Manufactured Housing Transactions (3)

 

BB+

 

6.2

 

127

 

Puerto Rico Public Finance Corporation

 

BB+

 

16.6

 

95

 

Northwest Airlines EETC Transactions (4)

 

D

 

8.3

 

47

 

International Airport Facility

 

BB

 

7.0

 

34

 

Structured Finance Domestic Franchise Loan Receivable Transactions (5)

 

B

 

13.5

 

31

 

Long Beach Mortgage Loan Trust 2002-5

 

BB

 

3.9

 

30

 

Louisiana State Stadium & Exposition District

 

BB

 

20.3

 

29

 

Total

 

B

 

12.4

 

$

915

 


(1) Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

(2) Exposure comprised of four series:  $148.0 million,  $37.5 million, $26.9 million, and $7.2 million - all rated ‘D’.

(3) Exposure comprised of twelve series: 10 series totaling $124.2 million - rated ‘BB+’, $1.5 million rated ‘BB’, and $1.5 million rated ‘B’

(4) Exposure comprised of two series: one in the amount of $14.0 million and the other for $32.6 million both rated ‘D’.

(5) Exposure comprised of two series: one in the amount of $16.0 million and the other for $15.4 million both rated ‘B’.

22




Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Closely Monitored Credits (“CMC”)

(dollars in millions)

Net par outstanding by credit monitoring category (1)

 

 

December 31, 2006

 

Description

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Number of Credits
in Category

 

Fundamentally sound risk

 

$

130,944

 

99.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closely monitored credits:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Category 1

 

855

 

0.6

%

43

 

Category 2

 

318

 

0.2

%

13

 

Category 3

 

123

 

0.1

%

18

 

Category 4

 

22

 

 

13

 

CMC Total

 

1,318

 

1.0

%

87

 

Other below investment grade risk

 

34

 

 

68

 

Total

 

$

132,296

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

December 31, 2005

 

Description

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Number of Credits
in Category

 

Fundamentally sound risk

 

$

100,951

 

98.6

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closely monitored credits:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Category 1

 

872

 

0.9

%

36

 

Category 2

 

433

 

0.4

%

22

 

Category 3

 

131

 

0.1

%

15

 

Category 4

 

23

 

 

11

 

CMC Total

 

1,459

 

1.4

%

84

 

Other below investment grade risk

 

55

 

 

103

 

Total

 

$

102,465

 

100.0

%

 

 


(1)  Our surveillance department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of closely monitored credits. The closely monitored credits are divided into four categories: Category 1 (low priority; fundamentally sound, greater than normal risk); Category 2 (medium priority; weakening credit profile, may result in loss); Category 3 (high priority; claim/default probable, case reserve established); Category 4 (claim paid, case reserve established for future payments). The closely monitored credits include all below investment grade (BIG) exposures where there is a material amount of exposure (generally greater than $10.0 million) or a material risk of the Company incurring a loss greater than $0.5 million. The closely monitored credits also include investment grade (IG) risks where credit quality is deteriorating and where, in the view of the Company, there is significant potential that the risk quality will fall below investment grade.

23




Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 1 of 2)

as of December 31, 2006

(dollars in millions)

 

10 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures

Revenue Source

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding(2)

 

Rating(1)

California State General Obligation & Leases

 

$

838

 

A

New York City General Obligation & Leases

 

685

 

A+

Long Island Power Authority

 

670

 

A-

New Jersey State General Obligation & Leases

 

662

 

AA-

Washington State General Obligation

 

640

 

AA

Chicago Illinois General Obligation

 

632

 

AA-

Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases

 

612

 

BBB-

Massachusetts State General Obligation & Bay Transportation

 

611

 

AA-

Jefferson County Alabama Sewer

 

578

 

A

Denver Colorado Airport System

 

577

 

A

Total top 10 public finance exposures

 

$

6,505

 

 

 

10 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures

Revenue Source

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding(2)

 

Rating(1)

Field Point III & IV, Limited

 

$

924

 

AA-

Structured Finance Corporate Pool

 

914

 

AAA

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

740

 

AAA

Sandelman Finance 2006-1 Limited

 

722

 

AA

Private - CDO

 

710

 

AAA

Private - CDO

 

658

 

AAA

Synthetic CDO - IG ABS

 

594

 

AAA

Private - CLO

 

535

 

AAA

Domestic - Mortgage Backed Securities

 

500

 

A

Private - Credit Card Master Trust

 

500

 

AAA

Total top 10 structured finance exposures

 

$

6,797

 

 


(1)             Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

(2)             Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.

24




Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 2 of 2)

as of December 31, 2006

(dollars in millions)

10 Largest Healthcare Exposures

Revenue Source

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding
(2)

 

Rating(1)

 

State

 

Covenant Health

 

$

177

 

BBB+

 

TN

 

Texas Health Resources

 

147

 

A+

 

TX

 

Ascension Health Credit Group

 

144

 

AA

 

MO

 

Catholic Healthcare Partners

 

137

 

AA-

 

OH

 

Catholic Healthcare West

 

132

 

A-

 

CA

 

W.A. Foote Memorial Hospital

 

125

 

A-

 

MI

 

Sutter Health Obligated Group

 

117

 

AA-

 

CA

 

Medstar Health Inc.

 

109

 

BBB

 

MD

 

St. Barnabas Health Care System

 

106

 

BBB

 

NJ

 

Methodist Hospital

 

102

 

A+

 

TX

 

Total top 10 healthcare exposures

 

$

1,296

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10 Largest International Exposures

 

Revenue Source

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding
(2)

 

Rating(1)

 

 

 

Private - Mortgage Backed Securities

 

$

1,501

 

AAA

 

 

 

Paragon Mortgages (No.13) Plc

 

1,376

 

AAA

 

 

 

Graphite Mortgages Plc Provide Graphite 2005-2

 

1,238

 

AAA

 

 

 

Epic II

 

1,065

 

AAA

 

 

 

International Infrastructure Pool

 

993

 

AAA

 

 

 

International Infrastructure Pool

 

955

 

AAA

 

 

 

International Infrastructure Pool

 

927

 

AAA

 

 

 

Nemus Funding No.1 PLC

 

701

 

AAA

 

 

 

Stichting Profile Securitisation I

 

676

 

AAA

 

 

 

Synthetic CDO - IG ABS

 

631

 

AAA

 

 

 

Total top 10 international exposures

 

$

10,063

 

 

 

 

 


(1)             Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

(2)             Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.

25




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2006

 

As of December 31, 2005

 

 

 

AGC

 

AG Re (1)

 

Consolidated

 

AGC

 

AG Re (1)

 

Consolidated

 

Statutory surplus and reserves

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve(2)

 

$

239

 

$

444

 

$

683

 

$

234

 

$

356

 

$

590

 

Contingency reserve

 

631

 

 

631

 

559

 

 

559

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

286

 

741

 

1,027

 

296

 

691

 

987

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves(3)

 

15

 

18

 

33

 

21

 

26

 

47

 

Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves

 

$

1,171

 

$

1,203

 

$

2,374

 

$

1,110

 

$

1,073

 

$

2,182

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Claims paying resources

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

$

286

 

$

741

 

$

1,027

 

$

296

 

$

691

 

$

987

 

Contingency reserve

 

631

 

 

631

 

559

 

 

559

 

Qualified statutory capital

 

917

 

741

 

1,658

 

855

 

691

 

1,545

 

Unearned premium reserve(2)

 

239

 

444

 

683

 

234

 

356

 

590

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves(3)

 

15

 

18

 

33

 

21

 

26

 

47

 

Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves

 

1,171

 

1,203

 

2,374

 

1,110

 

1,073

 

2,182

 

Present value of installment premium(d)

 

356

 

230

 

586

 

254

 

174

 

428

 

Standby line of credit/stop loss

 

455

 

 

455

 

455

 

 

455

 

Total claims paying resources

 

$

1,982

 

$

1,433

 

$

3,415

 

$

1,819

 

$

1,247

 

$

3,065

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par insured outstanding

 

$

68,370

 

$

63,927

 

$

132,296

 

$

52,659

 

$

49,806

 

$

102,465

 

Net debt service outstanding

 

$

85,522

 

$

94,652

 

$

180,174

 

$

70,769

 

$

74,925

 

$

145,694

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par insured to statutory capital

 

75:1

 

86:1

 

80:1

 

62:1

 

72:1

 

66:1

 

Capital ratio(4)

 

93:1

 

128:1

 

109:1

 

83:1

 

108:1

 

94:1

 

Financial resources ratio(5)

 

43:1

 

66:1

 

53:1

 

39:1

 

60:1

 

48:1

 


(1)             AG Re numbers are our estimate of U.S. statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements.

(2)             Unearned premium reserve for AG Re is U.S. GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums.

(3)             Loss & loss adjustment reserves for AG Re is U.S. GAAP based and net of reinsurance recoverable and portfolio reserves.

(4)             Capital ratio is net par and interest insured divided by qualified statutory capital.

(5)             Financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

26




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Summary Financial and Statistical Data

(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

Year Ended December 31,

 

 

 

2006

 

2005

 

2004

 

GAAP Summary Income Statement Data

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross premiums written

 

$

325.7

 

$

252.1

 

$

190.9

 

Net earned premiums

 

206.7

 

198.7

 

187.9

 

Net investment income

 

111.5

 

96.8

 

94.8

 

Total expenses

 

132.1

 

64.9

 

114.6

 

Income before provision for income taxes

 

190.0

 

229.6

 

233.3

 

Net income

 

159.7

 

188.4

 

182.8

 

Operating income

 

157.2

 

190.0

 

141.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income per diluted share

 

$

2.15

 

$

2.53

 

$

2.44

 

Operating income per diluted share

 

$

2.12

 

$

2.55

 

$

1.88

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Ratios

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

 

(3.3

)%

(35.0

)%

(17.0

)%

Expense ratio

 

59.2

 %

58.9

 %

65.4

 %

Combined ratio

 

55.9

 %

23.9

 %

48.4

 %

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data (end of period)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total investments and cash

 

$

2,469.9

 

$

2,256.0

 

$

2,157.9

 

Total assets

 

2,935.3

 

2,696.3

 

2,703.7

 

Unearned premium reserves

 

644.5

 

537.1

 

521.3

 

Loss and LAE reserves

 

120.6

 

128.4

 

236.2

 

Senior Notes

 

197.4

 

197.3

 

197.4

 

Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures

 

149.7

 

 

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

1,650.8

 

1,661.5

 

1,527.6

 

Book value per share

 

$

24.44

 

$

22.22

 

$

20.19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Financial Information

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net debt service outstanding (end of period)

 

$

180,174

 

$

145,694

 

$

136,120

 

Net par outstanding (end of period)

 

132,296

 

102,465

 

95,592

 

Gross par outstanding (end of period)

 

133,303

 

105,258

 

98,221

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated qualified statutory capital

 

1,658

 

1,545

 

1,351

 

Consolidated policyholders’ surplus & reserves

 

2,374

 

2,182

 

1,990

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par insured to statutory capital

 

80:1

 

66:1

 

71:1

 

Capital ratio(1)

 

109:1

 

94:1

 

101:1

 

Financial resources ratio(2)

 

53:1

 

48:1

 

51:1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Debt service written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

13,261

 

$

13,335

 

$

11,943

 

U.S. structured finance

 

28,902

 

16,724

 

15,131

 

International

 

17,154

 

5,729

 

3,897

 

Total debt service written

 

$

59,317

 

$

35,788

 

$

30,970

 


(1)             Capital ratio is net par and interest insured divided by qualified statutory capital.

(2)             Financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.

27




 

Endnotes related to non-GAAP financial measures discussed in the financial supplement:

(a) Present value of financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty gross written premiums or PVP, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, on contracts written in the current period, discounted at 6% per year.   We believe PVP is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because it permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, which GAAP gross premiums written does not adequately measure.  Actual future net earned or written premiums may differ from PVP due to factors such as prepayments, amortizations, refundings, contract terminations or defaults that may or may not be influenced by market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, pre-payment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for gross written premiums determined in accordance with GAAP.

(b) Operating income, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as net income excluding after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments.  We believe operating income is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because the presentation of operating income enhances the understanding of our results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of our insurance business.  We exclude net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict.  This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for net income determined in accordance with GAAP.

(c) Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as shareholders’ equity (book value) plus the after-tax value of the financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty unearned premium reserve net of prepaid reinsurance premiums and deferred acquisition costs plus the net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, less future ceding commissions, after-tax, discounted at 6%.  We believe adjusted book value is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because the calculation of adjusted book value permits an evaluation of the net present value of the Company’s in-force premiums and capital base. The premiums described above will be earned in future periods, but may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, pre-payment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, and other factors that management cannot control or predict.  This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for book value determined in accordance with GAAP.

(d) Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as the present value of estimated future financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty installment premiums from our in-force book of business, net of reinsurance and discounted at 6%.  We believe net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because it permits an evaluation of the value of future estimated installment premiums. Estimated future premiums may change from period to period due to changes in par outstanding, maturity or other factors that management cannot control or predict that result from market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, pre-payment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors.  There is no comparable GAAP financial measure.

For adjusted book value, net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force and present value of financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty gross written premiums or PVP we use 6% as the present value discount rate because it is the approximate taxable equivalent yield on our investment portfolio for the periods presented.

28




 

 

Contacts:

 

 

 

Equity investors and media

 

Sabra Purtill

 

Managing Director, Investor Relations

 

(212) 408-6044

 

spurtill@assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

Chris McNamee

 

Assistant Vice President, Investor Relations

 

(212) 261-5509

 

cmcnamee@assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

Fixed income investors

 

Patrick Early

 

Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations

 

(212) 408 6043

 

pearly@assuredguaranty.com

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

30 Woodbourne Avenue

Michael Walker

Hamilton HM 08

Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations

Bermuda

(212) 261-5575

www.assuredguaranty.com

mwalker@assuredguaranty.com