-----BEGIN PRIVACY-ENHANCED MESSAGE----- Proc-Type: 2001,MIC-CLEAR Originator-Name: webmaster@www.sec.gov Originator-Key-Asymmetric: MFgwCgYEVQgBAQICAf8DSgAwRwJAW2sNKK9AVtBzYZmr6aGjlWyK3XmZv3dTINen TWSM7vrzLADbmYQaionwg5sDW3P6oaM5D3tdezXMm7z1T+B+twIDAQAB MIC-Info: RSA-MD5,RSA, UyPrmVPz+dS/bM0rEvwdV0NY8xr1KSuNFfzr9LgZotv+idHWOb4n/FCjc8L0E4LA KZWVPU198PBnyrQAzH2oSw== 0001104659-05-052400.txt : 20051104 0001104659-05-052400.hdr.sgml : 20051104 20051103173337 ACCESSION NUMBER: 0001104659-05-052400 CONFORMED SUBMISSION TYPE: 8-K PUBLIC DOCUMENT COUNT: 6 CONFORMED PERIOD OF REPORT: 20051103 ITEM INFORMATION: Results of Operations and Financial Condition ITEM INFORMATION: Financial Statements and Exhibits FILED AS OF DATE: 20051104 DATE AS OF CHANGE: 20051103 FILER: COMPANY DATA: COMPANY CONFORMED NAME: ASSURED GUARANTY LTD CENTRAL INDEX KEY: 0001273813 STANDARD INDUSTRIAL CLASSIFICATION: SURETY INSURANCE [6351] IRS NUMBER: 000000000 FILING VALUES: FORM TYPE: 8-K SEC ACT: 1934 Act SEC FILE NUMBER: 001-32141 FILM NUMBER: 051177984 MAIL ADDRESS: STREET 1: 30 WOOD BOURNE AVE CITY: HAMILTON BERMUDA STATE: D0 ZIP: 0000 FORMER COMPANY: FORMER CONFORMED NAME: AGR LTD DATE OF NAME CHANGE: 20040122 FORMER COMPANY: FORMER CONFORMED NAME: AGC HOLDINGS LTD DATE OF NAME CHANGE: 20031218 8-K 1 a05-17932_28k.htm CURRENT REPORT OF MATERIAL EVENTS OR CORPORATE CHANGES

 

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549


FORM 8-K

Current Report

Pursuant To Section 13 or 15 (d) of the

Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported) —November 3, 2005


ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)


Bermuda

 

001-32141

 

98-0429991

(State or other jurisdiction of

 

(Commission File Number)

 

(I.R.S. Employer Identification No.)

incorporation or organization)

 

 

 

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd.

30 Woodbourne Avenue

Hamilton HM 08 Bermuda

(Address of principal executive offices)

 

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (441) 296-4004

Not applicable

(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)

 

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

 

        o    Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

        o    Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

        o    Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

        o    Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)

 



 

Item 2.02       Results of Operations and Financial Condition

 

On November 3, 2005, Assured Guaranty Ltd. issued a press release reporting its third quarter 2005 results and the availability of its third quarter financial supplement. The press release and the financial supplement are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are hereby incorporated herein by reference.

Item 9.01       Financial Statements, Pro Forma Financial Information and Exhibits.

 

(c)Exhibits

 

Exhibit
Number

 

Description

 

 

 

99.1

 

Press release, dated November 3, 2005, reporting third quarter results

 

 

 

99.2

 

Third quarter 2005 Financial Supplement

 

2



 

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.

 

 

ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

 

 

By:

/S/Robert B. Mills

 

Robert B. Mills

 

Chief Financial Officer

DATE:       November 3, 2005

 

3


 

EX-99.1 2 a05-17932_2ex99d1.htm PRESS RELEASE, DATED NOVEMBER 3, 2005, REPORTING THIRD QUARTER RESULTS

Ex 99.1

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

30 Woodbourne Avenue

 

Hamilton HM 08 Bermuda

 

441-299-9375

 

www.assuredguaranty.com

 

 

Press Release

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd. Reports Third Quarter 2005 Net Income

of $39.2 Million

 

Hamilton, Bermuda, November 3, 2005 — Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO) reported net income for the third quarter ended September 30, 2005 of $39.2 million, or $0.53 per diluted share, a decrease of 12% compared with net income of $44.5 million, or $0.59 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2004.  The decline in net income was due primarily to a reduction in after tax unrealized gains on derivative instruments from $10.1 million in the third quarter of 2004 to $0.2 million in the third quarter of 2005.

 

Operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure, for the third quarter of 2005 was $38.9 million, or $0.52 per diluted share, an increase of 16% from $33.6 million, or $0.45 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2004.  See “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” below.  The growth in operating income was the result of an increase in the Company’s consolidated underwriting gain versus the prior year period.

 

Dominic Frederico, President and Chief Executive Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd., commented, “Assured Guaranty continues to gain traction in the financial guaranty market.  During the quarter we underwrote our first future flow transaction and our first home equity line of credit securitization, expanding our asset class market presence.  Our year-to-date new business production clearly demonstrates the growing  demand for our guaranty from U.S. and global investors and issuers.”

 

Analysis of Net Income
($ in millions)

 

 

 

3Q-05

 

3Q-04

 

%
Change

 

Net income

 

$

39.2

 

$

44.5

 

(12

)%

Less: After-tax realized gains on investments

 

0.1

 

0.8

 

(88

)%

Less: After-tax unrealized gains on derivatives

 

0.2

 

10.1

 

(98

)%

Operating income

 

$

38.9

 

$

33.6

 

16

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weighted average shares outstanding (in millions):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Basic

 

73.9

 

75.0

 

(1

)%

Diluted

 

74.5

 

75.0

 

(1

)%

 

Per Diluted Share

 

 

 

3Q-05

 

3Q-04

 

%

Change

 

Net income

 

$

0.53

 

$

0.59

 

(10

)%

Less: After-tax realized gains on investments

 

 

0.01

 

NMF

 

Less: After-tax unrealized gains on derivatives

 

0.01

 

0.13

 

(92

)%

Operating income

 

$

0.52

 

$

0.45

 

16

%

 

To assist analysts and investors in evaluating the Company’s financial results, this press release references several non-GAAP financial measures.  These non-GAAP financial measures are defined in the “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” section of this press release. In each case, the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is presented and a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and GAAP measure is provided. This presentation is consistent with the way that Company management, analysts and investors

 



 

evaluate the Company’s financial results and is comparable to the earnings per share estimates published by analysts in their research reports on the Company.  The non-GAAP financial measures included in this press release are: operating income, present value of financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty gross written premiums (“PVP”), net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force and adjusted book value.

 

Income Statement Highlights:

 

Net Written Premiums by Segment

($ in millions)

 

 

 

3Q-05

 

3Q-04

 

%
Change

 

Financial guaranty direct

 

$

24.2

 

$

14.1

 

72

%

Mortgage guaranty

 

1.7

 

5.3

 

(68

)%

Financial guaranty reinsurance

 

27.3

 

35.6

 

(23

)%

Total financial guaranty

 

53.2

 

55.0

 

(3

)%

Other

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

53.2

 

$

55.0

 

(3

)%

 

Net written premiums in the third quarter of 2005 were $53.2 million, down 3% over the third quarter of 2004. On a segment basis, net written premiums in the financial guaranty direct segment were $24.2 million, up 72% over the prior year period, reflecting growth in both public and structured finance premiums.  Mortgage guaranty net written premiums were $1.7 million, down 68% compared to $5.3 million in the prior year period, which included premiums received on several contracts that are no longer in force.  Net written premiums in the financial guaranty reinsurance segment for the quarter were $27.3 million, a decline of 23% over the prior year period, due to lower upfront premiums, principally on public finance reinsurance.  The other segment, which includes businesses sold or discontinued as part of our IPO, has not generated net written or earned premiums since the end of the second quarter of 2004.

 

Net Earned Premiums by Segment

($ in millions)

 

 

3Q-05

 

3Q-04

 

%
Change

 

Financial guaranty direct

 

$

18.3

 

$

16.5

 

11

%

Mortgage guaranty

 

4.3

 

5.1

 

(16

)%

Financial guaranty reinsurance

 

32.0

 

31.9

 

 

Total financial guaranty

 

54.5

 

53.4

 

2

%

Other

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

54.5

 

$

53.4

 

2

%

 

Net earned premiums in the third quarter of 2005 were $54.5 million, up 2% over the third quarter of 2004.  On a segment basis, financial guaranty direct net earned premiums in the third quarter of 2005 were $18.3 million, up 11% compared to $16.5 million in the third quarter of 2004, which included $1.6 million of net earned premiums from the Company’s single name credit default swap business that was sold in the first quarter of 2005.  Mortgage guaranty net earned premiums in the third quarter of 2005 declined to $4.3 million from $5.1 million in the third quarter of 2004, primarily due to the run-off of the Company’s quota share mortgage guaranty reinsurance treaties.  Financial guaranty reinsurance net earned premiums, including municipal bond refundings, in the third quarter of 2005 were $32.0 million compared to $31.9 million reported in the third quarter of 2004.  Municipal bond refunding net earned premiums were $4.8 million ($0.03 per diluted share) in the third quarter of 2005 compared with $5.2 million ($0.03 per diluted share) in the third quarter of 2004.

 

2



 

Underwriting Results by Segment

($ in millions)

 

 

3Q-05

 

3Q-04

 

%
Change

 

Underwriting gain:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial guaranty direct

 

$

10.8

 

$

7.8

 

38

%

Mortgage guaranty

 

1.9

 

7.7

 

(75

)%

Financial guaranty reinsurance

 

11.3

 

4.5

 

151

%

Total financial guaranty

 

24.0

 

20.0

 

20

%

Other

 

1.3

 

 

NMF

 

Total

 

$

25.3

 

$

20.0

 

27

%

 

Assured Guaranty reported a consolidated underwriting gain in the third quarter of 2005 of $25.3 million, up 27% compared to an underwriting gain of $20.0 million in the third quarter of 2004.  The third quarter of 2004 included $1.8 million of loss expenses incurred ($0.1 million after-tax) due to refinements in our portfolio loss reserve methodology.

 

On a segment basis, the underwriting gain for the financial guaranty direct segment in the third quarter of 2005 was $10.8 million, up 38% from $7.8 million in the third quarter of 2004 that included $1.5 million in loss expenses that resulted from refinements of our portfolio loss reserve methodology during the quarter.  The mortgage guaranty segment’s underwriting results in the third quarter of 2005 declined to $1.9 million from $7.7 million in the third quarter of 2004 that included a $5.5 million benefit that resulted from refinements in our portfolio reserve methodology due to a rating agency review of the transactions in our mortgage guaranty segment.  The underwriting gain for the financial guaranty reinsurance segment in the third quarter of 2005 rose 151% to $11.3 million from $4.5 million in the third quarter of 2004 that included loss expenses incurred of $5.8 million related to the refinements in our portfolio loss reserve methodology.

 

Shareholders’ Equity Highlights:

(amounts in millions except per share data)

 

 

 

As of

 

 

 

September 30,
2005

 

December 31,
2004

 

Book value

 

$

1,633.6

 

$

1,527.6

 

Net UPR less DAC - after-tax (1)

 

304.6

 

268.6

 

Net present value of installment premiums in-force - after-tax (2)

 

306.3

 

297.1

 

Adjusted book value

 

$

2,244.6

 

$

2,093.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shares outstanding at the end of period (in millions)

 

74.9

 

75.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value per share outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

21.81

 

$

20.19

 

Net UPR less DAC - after-tax (1)

 

4.07

 

3.55

 

Net present value of installment premiums in-force - after-tax (2)

 

4.09

 

3.93

 

Adjusted book value

 

$

29.96

 

$

27.67

 

 


(1)

Unearned premium reserve (UPR) less pre-paid reinsurance premiums and deferred acquisition costs (DAC), all after-tax.

 

 

(2)

Due to reporting lag by our ceding companies, the present value of estimated installment premiums in force in our reinsurance segment is reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

At September 30, 2005, the Company’s book value per share was $21.81, an increase of 8% over the book value of $20.19 reported at December 31, 2004. The increase was primarily the result of the net income the Company has earned since year-end 2004, which was slightly offset by a reduction in accumulated other comprehensive income.  Adjusted book value per share, a non-GAAP financial measure, at September 30, 2005 was $29.96, up 8% from December 31, 2004, reflecting the growth since year-end 2004 in book value, net unearned premium reserves and net after-tax present value of estimated installment premiums in force, a non-GAAP financial measure.

 

3



 

New Business Production:

 

Analysis of Present Value of Financial Guaranty and Mortgage Guaranty Gross
Written Premiums (“PVP”)

($ in millions)

 

 

 

Three Months Ended

 

 

 

September 30,

 

 

 

2005

 

2004

 

Premium analysis:

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums (GWP) analysis:

 

 

 

 

 

Present value of financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP (PVP) (1)

 

 

 

 

 

Financial guaranty direct

 

$

39.4

 

$

7.9

 

Mortgage guaranty

 

 

1.1

 

Financial guaranty reinsurance

 

22.5

 

38.9

 

Total PVP

 

$

61.9

 

$

48.0

 

Less: Installment premium PVP

 

40.3

 

23.5

 

Upfront financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP

 

21.6

 

24.5

 

Plus: Installment GWP

 

32.3

 

32.5

 

Financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP

 

53.9

 

57.0

 

Other segment GWP

 

21.6

 

5.2

 

Total gross written premiums

 

$

75.6

 

$

62.2

 


(1). Due to reporting lags by our ceding companies, PVP for installment premiums from our financial guaranty reinsurance segment is reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

In the third quarter of 2005, new business production as measured by PVP, a non-GAAP financial measure, rose to $61.9 million, up 29% from the $48.0 million written in the third quarter of 2004.  The financial guaranty direct segment generated $39.4 million of PVP, a 399% increase over third quarter 2004 PVP of $7.9 million, reflecting the expansion of both the public and structured finance businesses.  The financial guaranty reinsurance segment’s third quarter 2005 PVP was $22.5 million, a 42% decrease from the segment’s third quarter 2004 PVP of $38.9 million, which included $9.4 million in PVP on two reinsurance contracts that are no longer in force.  Excluding these two contracts from the third quarter of 2004, financial guaranty reinsurance PVP declined 24% due to lower business ceded by one of our reinsurance clients.  The Company did not write any new mortgage guaranty contracts in the quarter, and thus no PVP was recorded, as contrasted to the third quarter of 2004 when one contract for PVP of $1.1 million was written.

 

Dividend: Earlier today, Assured Guaranty’s Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of U.S. $0.03 per common share.  The dividend is payable on December 8, 2005 to shareholders of record at the close of business on November 17, 2005.

 

Investor Conference Call:  The Company will host a conference call for investors at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (9:30 a.m. Atlantic Time) on Friday, November 4, 2005.  The earnings conference call will be available via live and archived webcast in the Investor Information section of the Company’s website at http://www.assuredguaranty.com or by dialing 1-800-706-7748 (in the U.S.) or 1-617-614-3473 (International), passcode 25328277.  A replay of the call will be available through December 4, 2005.  To listen to the replay dial: 1-888-286-8010 (in the U.S.) or 1-617-801-6888 (International), passcode 34984651.

 

Please refer to Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s Third Quarter 2005 Financial Supplement, which is posted on the Company’s website at http://www.assuredguaranty.com/investor/supplement.html, for more information on the Company’s individual segment performance, financial guaranty portfolios, investment portfolio and other items.

 

4



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a Bermuda-based holding company. Its operating subsidiaries provide credit enhancement products to the U.S. and international public finance, structured finance and mortgage markets.  More information can be found at www.assuredguaranty.com.

 

Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures:

 

The following section describes why the non-GAAP financial measures presented in this press release are useful for investors.

 

Operating income, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as net income excluding after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments.  We believe the presentation of operating income enhances the understanding of our results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of our insurance business.  We exclude net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict.  This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for net income determined in accordance with GAAP.

 

Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is derived by beginning with shareholder’s equity (book value) and adding or subtracting the after-tax value of the financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty unearned premium reserve net of prepaid reinsurance premiums and deferred acquisition costs and the after-tax value of the present value of estimated future installment premiums (discounted at 6%), net of reinsurance.  The adjustments described above will be realized in future periods, but may differ materially from the amounts used in determining current estimated adjusted book value due to changes in market interest rates, refunding activity, pre-payment speeds and other factors that management cannot control or predict.  Management, investors and analysts use the calculation of adjusted book value to evaluate the net present value of the Company’s in-force premium and capital base.

 

Present value of estimated installment premiums in-force, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, represents our estimated future premiums on our in-force book of installment premium business in our financial guaranty direct, financial guaranty reinsurance and mortgage guaranty segments.  Estimated future premiums may change from period to period due to changes in insured par outstanding that management cannot control or predict due to prepayments or amortizations differing from previous estimates or due to a change in future estimates due to market conditions, interest rates or other factors.  It is calculated net of reinsurance ceded and using a discount rate of 6%.  We believe present value of estimated installment premiums is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because it permits the evaluation of future estimated installment premiums, similar to the GAAP financial measure of unearned premium reserves, net of reinsurance.

 

PVP, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, represents gross premiums and fees related to financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty contracts written in the current period, including upfront and installment premiums received on contracts written in the current period and the present value of estimated future installment premiums, discounted at 6% per year.   We use 6% as the present value discount, because it is the approximate taxable equivalent yield on our investment portfolio for the periods presented. We believe PVP is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because it permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty by taking into account the value of installment premiums on new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, which the GAAP gross premiums written does not adequately measure.  Actual future net earned or written premiums may differ from PVP due to factors that management cannot control or predict, such as prepayments, amortizations, refundings, or defaults that may or may not be influenced by market interest rates, credit defaults or other factors.

 

5



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Income Statements

 

 

 

Three Months Ended

 

 

 

September 30,

 

 

 

2005

 

2004

 

 

 

(dollars in millions)

 

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

75.6

 

$

62.2

 

Net written premiums

 

53.2

 

55.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

54.5

 

53.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net investment income

 

24.4

 

23.2

 

Other income

 

0.1

 

 

Total revenues

 

$

79.0

 

$

76.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(0.8

)

4.2

 

Profit commission expense

 

2.0

 

1.1

 

Acquisition costs

 

13.0

 

14.2

 

Other operating expenses

 

15.0

 

14.0

 

Other expenses

 

4.1

 

3.4

 

Total expenses

 

$

33.3

 

$

36.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income before provision for income taxes

 

45.7

 

39.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total provision for income taxes

 

6.8

 

6.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income *

 

$

38.9

 

$

33.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After-tax net realized investment gains

 

0.1

 

0.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After-tax unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments

 

0.2

 

10.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

39.2

 

$

44.5

 


 * Net income excluding after-tax net realized investment gains and net unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments.

 

6



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Balance Sheets

 

 

 

As of:

 

 

 

September 30,

 

December 31,

 

 

 

2005

 

2004

 

 

 

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assets

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed maturity securities, at fair value

 

$

2,192.5

 

$

1,965.1

 

Short-term investments, at cost which approximates market

 

62.8

 

175.8

 

Total investments

 

2,255.3

 

2,140.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash and cash equivalents

 

7.1

 

17.0

 

Accrued investment income

 

22.7

 

21.9

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

190.0

 

186.4

 

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

12.9

 

15.2

 

Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses

 

107.2

 

120.2

 

Premiums receivable

 

33.4

 

40.8

 

Goodwill

 

85.4

 

85.4

 

Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments

 

34.8

 

43.9

 

Other assets

 

18.0

 

22.3

 

Total assets

 

$

2,766.7

 

$

2,694.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserves

 

$

527.9

 

$

521.3

 

Reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

201.2

 

226.5

 

Profit commissions payable

 

47.3

 

61.7

 

Reinsurance balances payable

 

17.9

 

25.1

 

Current income taxes

 

12.4

 

 

Deferred income taxes

 

17.7

 

40.1

 

Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts

 

55.1

 

50.8

 

Long-term debt

 

197.3

 

197.4

 

Other liabilities

 

56.2

 

43.7

 

Total liabilities

 

1,133.1

 

1,166.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Common stock

 

0.7

 

0.8

 

Treasury stock

 

(7.9

)

(7.9

)

Additional paid-in capital

 

885.4

 

894.2

 

Unearned stock grant compensation

 

(9.4

)

(6.7

)

Retained earnings

 

711.8

 

568.3

 

Accumulated other comprehensive income

 

52.9

 

79.0

 

Total shareholders’ equity

 

1,633.6

 

1,527.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

$

2,766.7

 

$

2,694.0

 

 

7



 

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:

 

Any forward-looking statements made in this press release reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.  Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements.  For example, the Company’s forward-looking statements, including its statements regarding PVP and present value of estimated installment premiums in force, could be affected by a significant reduction in the amount of reinsurance ceded by one or more of our principal ceding companies, rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy, contract cancellations, developments in the world’s financial and capital markets, more severe or frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserve, changes in regulation or tax laws, governmental actions, the Company’s dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, and changes in general economic conditions, as well as management’s response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.  Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made.  The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

 

Contact Information:

 

Equity Investors and Media

 

Sabra Purtill, CFA

Managing Director, Investor Relations

212-408-6044

441-278-6665

spurtill@assuredguaranty.com

 

Christopher McNamee

Assistant Vice President, Investor Relations

212-261-5509

cmcnamee@assuredguaranty.com

 

8


EX-99.2 3 a05-17932_2ex99d2.htm THIRD QUARTER 2005 FINANCIAL SUPPLEMENT

Exhibit 99.2

 

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Supplement

Third Quarter 2005

September 30, 2005

 

Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

 

Selected Financial Highlights

 

 

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

 

 

Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

 

 

Segment Consolidation

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment

 

 

Mortgage Guaranty Segment

 

 

Other Segment

 

 

Loss and LAE Reserves

 

 

Investment Portfolio

 

 

Financial Guaranty Profile

 

 

Non-Investment Grade Exposures

 

 

Closely Monitored Credits

 

 

Largest Exposures by Sector

 

 

Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources

 

 

Summary Financial and Statistical Data

 

 

This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (the “Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our IPO prospectus dated April 22, 2004, our 10-Q’s dated March 31, 2004, June 30, 2004, September 30, 2004, March 31, 2005 and June 30, 2005 and our 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2004.

 

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:

 

Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

 

Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements.  For example, the Company’s forward-looking statements, such as its statements regarding PVP and present value of estimated installment premiums in force, could be affected by a significant reduction in the amount of reinsurance ceded by one or more of our principal ceding companies, rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy, contract cancellations, developments in the world’s financial and capital markets, more severe losses or more frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserve, changes in regulation or tax laws, governmental actions, the Company’s dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, and changes in general economic conditions, as well as management’s response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

 



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Selected Financial Highlights

(dollars and shares in millions except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended

 

% Change

 

Nine Months Ended

 

% Change

 

 

 

September 30,

 

versus

 

September 30,

 

versus

 

 

 

2005

 

2004

 

3Q-04

 

2005

 

2004

 

YTD 2004

 

Gross written premiums (GWP) analysis:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Present value of financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP (PVP) (a)

 

$

61.9

 

$

48.0

 

29

%

$

202.4

 

$

207.5

 

-2

%

Less: Installment premium PVP

 

40.3

 

23.5

 

72

%

126.4

 

111.8

 

13

%

Upfront financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP

 

21.6

 

24.5

 

-12

%

76.0

 

95.7

 

-21

%

Less: Upfront premium due to novations

 

 

 

 

18.4

 

 

NMF

 

Plus: Installment GWP

 

32.3

 

32.5

 

-1

%

104.5

 

107.7

 

-3

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP

 

53.9

 

57.0

 

-5

%

162.1

 

203.4

 

-20

%

Plus: Other segment GWP

 

21.6

 

5.2

 

316

%

32.0

 

(78.4

)

NMF

 

Total GWP

 

$

75.6

 

$

62.2

 

22

%

$

194.1

 

$

125.0

 

55

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

39.2

 

$

44.5

 

-12

%

$

150.3

 

$

134.5

 

12

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Less: After-tax realized gains on investments

 

0.1

 

0.8

 

-88

%

2.8

 

7.1

 

-61

%

Less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives

 

0.2

 

10.1

 

-98

%

(7.9

)

22.2

 

NMF

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

38.9

 

$

33.6

 

16

%

$

155.4

 

$

105.2

 

48

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

1,633.6

 

$

1,487.9

 

10

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve less DAC, after-tax (1)

 

304.6

 

249.2

 

22

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net present value of installment premiums in-force, after-tax

 

306.3

 

281.4

 

9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted book value (c)

 

$

2,244.6

 

$

2,018.5

 

11

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ROE, excluding AOCI

 

10.0

%

12.8

%

 

 

13.2

%

13.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Less: After-tax realized gains on investments

 

 

0.2

%

 

 

0.2

%

0.7

%

 

 

Less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives

 

 

2.9

%

 

 

-0.7

%

2.1

%

 

 

Operating ROE, excluding AOCI (b)

 

10.0

%

9.7

%

 

 

13.7

%

10.1

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per diluted share:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

0.53

 

$

0.59

 

-10

%

$

2.02

 

$

1.79

 

13

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Less: After-tax realized gains on investments

 

 

0.01

 

NMF

 

0.04

 

0.10

 

-60

%

Less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives

 

0.01

 

0.13

 

-92

%

(0.11

)

0.30

 

NMF

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

0.52

 

$

0.45

 

16

%

$

2.09

 

$

1.40

 

49

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

21.81

 

$

19.58

 

11

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve less DAC, after-tax (1)

 

4.07

 

3.28

 

24

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net present value of installment premiums in-force, after-tax

 

4.09

 

3.70

 

11

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted book value (c)

 

$

29.96

 

$

26.56

 

13

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Additional information:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shares outstanding at the end of period

 

74.9

 

76.0

 

-1

%

74.9

 

76.0

 

-1

%

Weighted average basic shares outstanding

 

73.9

 

75.0

 

-1

%

74.0

 

75.0

 

-1

%

Weighted average diluted shares outstanding

 

74.5

 

75.0

 

-1

%

74.5

 

75.0

 

-1

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated net debt service outstanding

 

$

139,093

 

$

134,050

 

4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated net par outstanding

 

97,320

 

92,467

 

5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated claims-paying resources

 

3,077

 

2,781

 

11

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


(1) Unearned premium reserve (UPR) less pre-paid reinsurance premiums and deferred acquisition costs (DAC), all after-tax

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

(in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended

 

% Change

 

Nine Months Ended

 

% Change

 

 

 

September 30,

 

versus

 

September 30,

 

versus

 

 

 

2005

 

2004

 

3Q-04

 

2005

 

2004

 

YTD 2004

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

75.6

 

$

62.2

 

22

%

$

194.1

 

$

125.0

 

55

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net written premiums

 

53.2

 

55.0

 

-3

%

159.9

 

18.2

 

NMF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

54.5

 

53.4

 

2

%

150.9

 

130.7

 

15

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net investment income

 

24.4

 

23.2

 

5

%

71.2

 

71.0

 

 

Other income

 

0.1

 

 

NMF

 

0.2

 

0.6

 

-67

%

Total revenues

 

$

79.0

 

$

76.6

 

3

%

$

222.3

 

$

202.3

 

10

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(0.8

)

4.2

 

NMF

 

(69.3

)

(32.2

)

115

%

Profit commission expense

 

2.0

 

1.1

 

82

%

6.4

 

11.4

 

-44

%

Acquisition costs

 

13.0

 

14.2

 

-8

%

34.9

 

35.8

 

-3

%

Other operating expenses

 

15.0

 

14.0

 

7

%

44.0

 

53.3

 

-17

%

Other expenses

 

4.1

 

3.4

 

21

%

13.3

 

9.0

 

48

%

Total expenses

 

$

33.3

 

$

36.9

 

-10

%

$

29.2

 

$

77.2

 

64

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income before provision for income taxes

 

45.7

 

39.7

 

15

%

193.1

 

125.1

 

54

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total provision for income taxes

 

6.8

 

6.1

 

11

%

37.7

 

19.9

 

89

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

38.9

 

$

33.6

 

16

%

$

155.4

 

$

105.2

 

48

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After-tax net realized gains on investments

 

0.1

 

0.8

 

-88

%

2.8

 

7.1

 

-61

%

After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative instruments

 

0.2

 

10.1

 

-98

%

(7.9

)

22.2

 

NMF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

39.2

 

$

44.5

 

-12

%

$

150.3

 

$

134.5

 

12

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per diluted share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

0.52

 

$

0.45

 

16

%

$

2.09

 

$

1.40

 

49

%

After-tax net realized gains on investments

 

 

0.01

 

NMF

 

0.04

 

0.10

 

-60

%

After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative instruments

 

0.01

 

0.13

 

-92

%

(0.11

)

0.30

 

NMF

 

Net income

 

$

0.53

 

$

0.59

 

-10

%

$

2.02

 

$

1.79

 

13

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weighted average shares outstanding (in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Basic shares outstanding

 

73.9

 

75.0

 

-1

%

74.0

 

75.0

 

-1

%

Plus: effect of options

 

0.3

 

 

NMF

 

0.2

 

 

NMF

 

Plus: effect of restricted stock

 

0.2

 

 

NMF

 

0.2

 

 

NMF

 

Diluted shares outstanding

 

74.5

 

75.0

 

-1

%

74.5

 

75.0

 

-1

%

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

Some amounts may not foot due to rounding.

 

2



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of :

 

 

 

September 30,

 

December 31,

 

 

 

2005

 

2004

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assets

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed maturity securities, at fair value

 

$

2,192.5

 

$

1,965.1

 

Short-term investments, at cost which approximates fair value

 

62.8

 

175.8

 

Total investments

 

2,255.3

 

2,140.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash and cash equivalents

 

7.1

 

17.0

 

Accrued investment income

 

22.7

 

21.9

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

190.0

 

186.4

 

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

12.9

 

15.2

 

Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses

 

107.2

 

120.2

 

Premiums receivable

 

33.4

 

40.8

 

Goodwill

 

85.4

 

85.4

 

Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments

 

34.8

 

43.9

 

Other assets

 

18.0

 

22.3

 

Total assets

 

$

2,766.7

 

$

2,694.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserves

 

$

527.9

 

$

521.3

 

Reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

201.2

 

226.5

 

Profit commissions payable

 

47.3

 

61.7

 

Reinsurance balances payable

 

17.9

 

25.1

 

Current income taxes

 

12.4

 

 

Deferred income taxes

 

17.7

 

40.1

 

Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts

 

55.1

 

50.8

 

Long-term debt

 

197.3

 

197.4

 

Other liabilities

 

56.2

 

43.7

 

Total liabilities

 

1,133.1

 

1,166.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Common stock

 

0.7

 

0.8

 

Treasury stock

 

(7.9

)

(7.9

)

Additional paid-in capital

 

885.4

 

894.2

 

Unearned stock grant compensation

 

(9.4

)

(6.7

)

Retained earnings

 

711.8

 

568.3

 

Accumulated other comprehensive income

 

52.9

 

79.0

 

Total shareholders’ equity

 

1,633.6

 

1,527.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

$

2,766.7

 

$

2,694.0

 

 

3



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Segment Consolidation (1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended September 30, 2005

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP): (a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

6.3

 

$

20.2

 

$

 

$

26.5

 

 

 

$

26.5

 

Structured finance

 

33.0

 

2.3

 

 

35.3

 

 

 

35.3

 

Total PVP

 

$

39.4

 

$

22.5

 

$

 

$

61.9

 

 

 

$

61.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

24.9

 

$

27.3

 

$

1.7

 

$

53.9

 

$

21.6

 

$

75.6

 

Net written premiums

 

24.2

 

27.3

 

1.7

 

53.2

 

 

53.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

18.3

 

32.0

 

4.3

 

54.5

 

 

54.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(4.0

)

4.3

 

0.3

 

0.6

 

(1.3

)

(0.8

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

1.1

 

0.9

 

2.0

 

 

2.0

 

Acquisition costs

 

1.6

 

11.0

 

0.4

 

13.0

 

 

13.0

 

Operating expenses

 

9.9

 

4.3

 

0.8

 

15.0

 

 

15.0

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

7.5

 

$

20.7

 

$

2.4

 

$

30.6

 

$

(1.3

)

$

29.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

10.8

 

$

11.3

 

$

1.9

 

$

24.0

 

$

1.3

 

$

25.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

-21.9

%

13.3

%

6.9

%

1.0

%

 

 

-1.5

%

Expense ratio

 

62.9

%

51.4

%

48.5

%

55.0

%

 

 

55.0

%

Combined ratio

 

41.0

%

64.7

%

55.4

%

56.0

%

 

 

53.5

%

 

 

 

Quarter Ended September 30, 2004

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

 

$

33.9

 

$

 

$

33.9

 

 

 

$

33.9

 

Structured finance

 

7.9

 

5.0

 

1.1

 

14.0

 

 

 

14.0

 

Total PVP

 

$

7.9

 

$

38.9

 

$

1.1

 

$

48.0

 

 

 

$

48.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

16.1

 

$

35.6

 

$

5.3

 

$

57.0

 

$

5.2

 

$

62.2

 

Net written premiums

 

14.1

 

35.6

 

5.3

 

55.0

 

 

55.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

16.5

 

31.9

 

5.1

 

53.4

 

 

53.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(1.2

)

10.8

 

(5.4

)

4.2

 

 

4.2

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

(0.2

)

1.3

 

1.1

 

 

1.1

 

Acquisition costs

 

1.4

 

12.1

 

0.5

 

14.2

 

 

14.2

 

Operating expenses

 

8.5

 

4.7

 

1.0

 

14.0

 

 

14.0

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

8.7

 

$

27.4

 

$

(2.6

)

$

33.7

 

$

 

$

33.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

7.8

 

$

4.5

 

$

7.7

 

$

20.0

 

$

 

$

20.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

-7.3

%

33.9

%

-105.9

%

7.9

%

 

 

7.9

%

Expense ratio

 

59.8

%

51.9

%

55.5

%

54.8

%

 

 

54.8

%

Combined ratio

 

52.5

%

85.8

%

-50.4

%

62.7

%

 

 

62.7

%

 


(1) Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

4



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Segment Consolidation (2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Nine Months Ended September 30, 2005

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP): (a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

14.2

 

$

65.0

 

$

 

$

79.2

 

 

 

$

79.2

 

Structured finance

 

85.3

 

24.8

 

13.1

 

123.1

 

 

 

123.1

 

Total PVP

 

$

99.5

 

$

89.8

 

$

13.1

 

$

202.4

 

 

 

$

202.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

69.6

 

$

69.5

 

$

23.0

 

$

162.1

 

$

32.0

 

$

194.1

 

Net written premiums

 

67.6

 

69.2

 

23.0

 

159.9

 

 

159.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

54.7

 

82.2

 

14.0

 

150.9

 

 

150.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(0.5

)

(66.9

)

0.5

 

(66.9

)

(2.4

)

(69.3

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

3.4

 

2.9

 

6.3

 

 

6.4

 

Acquisition costs

 

4.7

 

28.6

 

1.5

 

34.9

 

 

34.9

 

Operating expenses

 

27.6

 

14.4

 

1.9

 

43.9

 

 

44.0

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

31.8

 

$

(20.5

)

$

6.8

 

$

18.2

 

$

(2.4

)

$

15.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

22.9

 

$

102.7

 

$

7.2

 

$

132.8

 

$

2.4

 

$

134.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

-0.8

%

-81.5

%

3.5

%

-44.3

%

 

 

-45.9

%

Expense ratio

 

59.0

%

56.5

%

44.9

%

56.4

%

 

 

56.5

%

Combined ratio

 

58.2

%

-25.0

%

48.4

%

12.1

%

 

 

10.6

%

 

 

 

Nine Months Ended September 30, 2004

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

2.9

 

$

110.9

 

$

 

$

113.8

 

 

 

$

113.8

 

Structured finance

 

27.2

 

46.2

 

20.3

 

93.6

 

 

 

93.6

 

Total PVP

 

$

30.1

 

$

157.1

 

$

20.3

 

$

207.5

 

 

 

$

207.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

59.4

 

$

123.8

 

$

20.2

 

$

203.4

 

$

(78.4

)

$

125.0

 

Net written premiums

 

56.7

 

123.8

 

20.2

 

200.7

 

(182.5

)

18.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

73.3

 

77.8

 

28.5

 

179.6

 

(48.9

)

130.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

13.8

 

13.8

 

(9.9

)

17.7

 

(49.9

)

(32.2

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

0.2

 

10.6

 

10.8

 

0.6

 

11.4

 

Acquisition costs

 

2.9

 

25.9

 

3.1

 

32.0

 

3.7

 

35.8

 

Operating expenses (2)

 

23.1

 

12.7

 

2.8

 

38.4

 

3.5

 

41.9

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

39.8

 

$

52.6

 

$

6.6

 

$

98.9

 

$

(42.0

)

$

57.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

33.5

 

$

25.2

 

$

21.9

 

$

81.0

 

$

(7.1

)

$

73.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

18.8

%

17.7

%

-34.7

%

9.9

%

102.0

%

-24.6

%

Expense ratio

 

35.4

%

49.8

%

57.8

%

45.2

%

-16.1

%

68.2

%

Combined ratio

 

54.2

%

67.5

%

23.1

%

55.1

%

85.9

%

43.6

%

 


(1) Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

(2) YTD 2004 excludes $11.3 million of operating expenses, related to accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

5



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-04

 

2Q-04

 

3Q-04

 

4Q-04

 

1Q-05

 

2Q-05

 

3Q-05

 

YTD 2004

 

YTD 2005

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a)

 

$

7.9

 

$

14.4

 

$

7.9

 

$

39.6

 

$

37.5

 

$

22.7

 

$

39.4

 

$

30.1

 

$

99.5

 

Less: Present value of installment premiums (a)

 

7.9

 

14.4

 

7.9

 

33.9

 

35.8

 

17.6

 

33.0

 

30.1

 

86.4

 

Upfront gross written premiums (GWP)

 

 

 

 

5.7

 

1.7

 

5.1

 

6.3

 

 

13.1

 

Plus: Installment GWP

 

25.6

 

17.7

 

16.1

 

15.6

 

22.1

 

15.8

 

18.6

 

59.4

 

56.5

 

Financial guaranty direct GWP

 

$

25.6

 

$

17.7

 

$

16.1

 

$

21.3

 

$

23.8

 

$

20.9

 

$

24.9

 

$

59.4

 

$

69.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

25.6

 

$

17.7

 

$

16.1

 

$

21.3

 

$

23.8

 

$

20.9

 

$

24.9

 

$

59.4

 

$

69.6

 

Net written premiums

 

25.3

 

17.3

 

14.1

 

20.9

 

23.1

 

20.4

 

24.2

 

56.7

 

67.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

 

 

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.4

 

0.7

 

0.1

 

1.3

 

Structured finance

 

40.7

 

16.1

 

16.5

 

15.4

 

20.3

 

15.6

 

17.6

 

73.2

 

53.4

 

Total net earned premiums

 

40.7

 

16.1

 

16.5

 

15.5

 

20.4

 

16.0

 

18.3

 

73.3

 

54.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

13.4

 

1.6

 

(1.2

)

1.0

 

(1.5

)

5.0

 

(4.0

)

13.8

 

(0.5

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs

 

1.4

 

0.1

 

1.4

 

1.6

 

1.5

 

1.6

 

1.6

 

2.9

 

4.7

 

Operating expenses (1)

 

5.5

 

9.1

 

8.5

 

8.6

 

9.4

 

8.4

 

9.9

 

23.1

 

27.6

 

Total expenses

 

$

20.3

 

$

10.8

 

$

8.7

 

$

11.3

 

$

9.4

 

$

15.0

 

$

7.5

 

$

39.8

 

$

31.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

20.4

 

$

5.3

 

$

7.8

 

$

4.2

 

$

11.0

 

$

1.1

 

$

10.8

 

$

33.5

 

$

22.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

32.9

%

9.9

%

-7.3

%

6.5

%

-7.1

%

31.3

%

-21.9

%

18.8

%

-0.8

%

Expense ratio

 

17.0

%

57.1

%

59.8

%

66.3

%

53.1

%

62.2

%

62.9

%

35.4

%

59.0

%

Combined ratio

 

49.9

%

67.0

%

52.5

%

72.8

%

46.0

%

93.5

%

41.0

%

54.2

%

58.2

%

 


(1)  2Q-04 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and present value of installment premiums in force adjusted book value (c)].

 

6



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-04

 

2Q-04

 

3Q-04

 

4Q-04

 

1Q-05

 

2Q-05

 

3Q-05

 

YTD 2004

 

YTD 2005

 

PVP (a):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

 

$

2.9

 

$

 

$

5.7

 

$

1.6

 

$

6.3

 

$

6.3

 

$

2.9

 

$

14.2

 

Structured finance

 

7.9

 

11.4

 

7.9

 

33.9

 

35.9

 

16.4

 

33.0

 

27.2

 

85.3

 

Total

 

$

7.9

 

$

14.4

 

$

7.9

 

$

39.6

 

$

37.5

 

$

22.7

 

$

39.4

 

$

30.1

 

$

99.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S.

 

$

4.2

 

$

11.1

 

$

7.9

 

$

34.6

 

$

32.5

 

$

21.2

 

$

31.6

 

$

23.2

 

$

85.4

 

Non-U.S.

 

3.7

 

3.2

 

 

5.0

 

4.9

 

1.5

 

7.7

 

6.9

 

14.1

 

Total

 

$

7.9

 

$

14.4

 

$

7.9

 

$

39.6

 

$

37.5

 

$

22.7

 

$

39.4

 

$

30.1

 

$

99.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

 

$

246

 

$

508

 

$

194

 

$

77

 

$

386

 

$

224

 

$

754

 

$

687

 

Structured finance

 

1,488

 

2,444

 

854

 

7,263

 

1,438

 

2,137

 

4,987

 

4,785

 

8,563

 

Total

 

$

1,488

 

$

2,691

 

$

1,361

 

$

7,457

 

$

1,515

 

$

2,524

 

$

5,212

 

$

5,539

 

$

9,250

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S.

 

$

1,435

 

$

2,397

 

$

854

 

$

7,357

 

$

1,250

 

$

2,422

 

$

4,859

 

$

4,686

 

$

8,531

 

International

 

53

 

293

 

508

 

100

 

265

 

102

 

353

 

853

 

720

 

Total

 

$

1,488

 

$

2,691

 

$

1,361

 

$

7,457

 

$

1,515

 

$

2,524

 

$

5,212

 

$

5,539

 

$

9,250

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

2,112

 

$

2,321

 

$

2,852

 

$

3,144

 

$

3,146

 

$

3,463

 

$

3,647

 

$

2,852

 

$

3,647

 

Structured finance

 

21,737

 

23,454

 

23,605

 

28,468

 

27,444

 

26,556

 

29,751

 

23,605

 

29,751

 

Total

 

$

23,849

 

$

25,775

 

$

26,457

 

$

31,612

 

$

30,590

 

$

30,019

 

$

33,397

 

$

26,457

 

$

33,397

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Present value of installment premiums in force: (a)

 

$

220.6

 

$

219.7

 

$

218.9

 

$

231.0

 

$

238.3

 

$

216.4

 

$

230.4

 

$

218.9

 

$

230.4

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

16.0

 

17.1

 

14.7

 

20.3

 

23.0

 

27.0

 

33.2

 

14.7

 

33.2

 

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and present value of installment premiums in force adjusted book value (c)].

 

7



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1)(1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-04

 

2Q-04

 

3Q-04

 

4Q-04

 

1Q-05

 

2Q-05

 

3Q-05

 

YTD 2004

 

YTD 2005

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a)

 

$

78.1

 

$

40.1

 

$

38.9

 

$

35.7

 

$

32.1

 

$

35.2

 

$

22.5

 

$

157.1

 

$

89.8

 

Less: Present value of installment premiums (a)

 

40.0

 

17.2

 

14.5

 

11.6

 

12.1

 

20.7

 

7.2

 

71.7

 

40.0

 

Upfront gross written premiums (GWP)

 

38.1

 

22.9

 

24.5

 

24.1

 

20.0

 

14.6

 

15.3

 

85.4

 

49.8

 

Less: Upfront premium due to novations (4)

 

 

 

 

 

 

18.4

 

 

 

18.4

 

Plus: Installment GWP (2)

 

14.3

 

12.9

 

11.1

 

12.4

 

14.0

 

12.0

 

12.0

 

38.4

 

38.1

 

Financial guaranty reinsurance GWP

 

$

52.4

 

$

35.8

 

$

35.6

 

$

36.5

 

$

34.0

 

$

8.2

 

$

27.3

 

$

123.8

 

$

69.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

52.4

 

$

35.8

 

$

35.6

 

$

36.5

 

$

34.0

 

$

8.2

 

$

27.3

 

$

123.8

 

$

69.5

 

Net written premiums

 

52.4

 

35.8

 

35.6

 

36.3

 

34.0

 

8.0

 

27.3

 

123.8

 

69.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scheduled net earned premiums

 

17.5

 

21.1

 

26.7

 

31.5

 

21.6

 

23.6

 

27.2

 

65.3

 

72.4

 

Net earned premiums from refundings

 

2.9

 

4.4

 

5.2

 

5.0

 

1.4

 

3.6

 

4.8

 

12.5

 

9.8

 

Total net earned premiums

 

20.4

 

25.5

 

31.9

 

36.5

 

23.0

 

27.2

 

32.0

 

77.8

 

82.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

3.9

 

(0.9

)

10.8

 

1.6

 

(7.1

)

(64.1

)

4.3

 

13.8

 

(66.9

)

Profit commission expense

 

0.1

 

0.3

 

(0.2

)

0.9

 

 

2.3

 

1.1

 

0.2

 

3.4

 

Acquisition costs

 

7.1

 

6.7

 

12.1

 

13.0

 

8.1

 

9.5

 

11.0

 

25.9

 

28.6

 

Operating expenses (3)

 

3.0

 

5.0

 

4.7

 

4.8

 

4.4

 

5.7

 

4.3

 

12.7

 

14.4

 

Total expenses

 

$

14.1

 

$

11.1

 

$

27.4

 

$

20.2

 

$

5.4

 

$

(46.6

)

$

20.7

 

$

52.6

 

$

(20.5

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

6.3

 

$

14.4

 

$

4.5

 

$

16.2

 

$

17.6

 

$

73.8

 

$

11.3

 

$

25.2

 

$

102.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

19.1

%

-3.5

%

33.9

%

4.4

%

-30.9

%

-235.7

%

13.3

%

17.7

%

-81.5

%

Expense ratio

 

50.0

%

47.1

%

51.9

%

51.1

%

54.3

%

64.3

%

51.4

%

49.8

%

56.5

%

Combined ratio

 

69.1

%

43.6

%

85.8

%

55.5

%

23.4

%

-171.4

%

64.7

%

67.5

%

-25.0

%

 


(1) Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross installment premiums written (PVP), par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

(2) Installment gross written premiums includes the reclassification of certain deals originally recorded as installment that were discovered during 3Q-04 to be upfront premiums. As a result, prior period amounts have been restated. This reclass had an immaterial impact on our QTD and YTD results of operations and financial condition.

 

(3) 2Q-04 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.

 

(4) Relates to reassumption by FSA of approximately $820 million par value of healthcare related business.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and present value of installment premiums in force adjusted book value (c)].

 

8



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1)(2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-04

 

2Q-04

 

3Q-04

 

4Q-04

 

1Q-05

 

2Q-05

 

3Q-05

 

YTD 2004

 

YTD 2005

 

PVP (a):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

45.8

 

$

31.2

 

$

33.9

 

$

26.4

 

$

29.0

 

$

15.8

 

$

20.2

 

$

110.9

 

$

65.0

 

Structured finance

 

32.3

 

8.9

 

5.0

 

9.3

 

3.1

 

19.4

 

2.3

 

46.2

 

24.8

 

Total

 

$

78.1

 

$

40.1

 

$

38.9

 

$

35.7

 

$

32.1

 

$

35.2

 

$

22.5

 

$

157.1

 

$

89.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

1,932

 

$

1,590

 

$

2,262

 

$

1,443

 

$

2,206

 

$

287

 

$

1,410

 

$

5,784

 

$

3,903

 

Structured finance

 

1,154

 

629

 

507

 

861

 

1,718

 

704

 

240

 

2,290

 

2,662

 

Total

 

$

3,086

 

$

2,219

 

$

2,769

 

$

2,304

 

$

3,924

 

$

991

 

$

1,650

 

$

8,074

 

$

6,565

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

51,806

 

$

52,061

 

$

52,926

 

$

51,324

 

$

52,579

 

$

51,039

 

$

51,110

 

$

52,926

 

$

51,110

 

Structured finance

 

13,935

 

13,514

 

13,084

 

12,656

 

13,225

 

13,809

 

12,812

 

13,084

 

12,812

 

Total

 

$

65,741

 

$

65,575

 

$

66,010

 

$

63,980

 

$

65,804

 

$

64,848

 

$

63,922

 

$

66,010

 

$

63,922

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Present value of installment premiums in force (a)

 

$

140.3

 

$

147.2

 

$

138.0

 

$

138.9

 

$

142.9

 

$

152.3

 

$

147.4

 

$

138.0

 

$

147.4

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

436.4

 

441.0

 

444.2

 

443.8

 

454.8

 

435.6

 

430.9

 

444.2

 

430.9

 

 


(1) Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross installment premiums written (PVP), par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and present value of installment premiums in force adjusted book value (c)].

 

9



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Mortgage Guaranty Segment

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-04

 

2Q-04

 

3Q-04

 

4Q-04

 

1Q-05

 

2Q-05

 

3Q-05

 

YTD 2004

 

YTD 2005

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a)

 

$

19.2

 

$

 

$

1.1

 

$

6.9

 

$

13.1

 

$

 

$

 

$

20.3

 

$

13.1

 

less: Present value of installment premiums (a)

 

8.9

 

 

1.1

 

6.9

 

 

 

 

10.0

 

 

Upfront gross written premiums (GWP)

 

10.3

 

 

 

 

13.1

 

 

 

10.3

 

13.1

 

plus: Installment GWP

 

3.7

 

0.9

 

5.3

 

4.2

 

6.3

 

1.9

 

1.7

 

9.9

 

10.0

 

Mortgage guaranty GWP

 

$

14.0

 

$

0.9

 

$

5.3

 

$

4.2

 

$

19.4

 

$

1.9

 

$

1.7

 

$

20.2

 

$

23.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

14.0

 

$

0.9

 

$

5.3

 

$

4.2

 

$

19.4

 

$

1.9

 

$

1.7

 

$

20.2

 

$

23.0

 

Net written premiums

 

14.0

 

0.9

 

5.3

 

4.2

 

19.4

 

1.9

 

1.7

 

20.2

 

23.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

8.4

 

15.0

 

5.1

 

5.2

 

4.6

 

5.1

 

4.3

 

28.5

 

14.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(1.2

)

(3.3

)

(5.4

)

(2.0

)

0.2

 

 

0.3

 

(9.9

)

0.5

 

Profit commission expense

 

5.0

 

4.3

 

1.3

 

3.5

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

0.9

 

10.6

 

2.9

 

Acquisition costs

 

0.9

 

1.7

 

0.5

 

0.6

 

0.5

 

0.6

 

0.4

 

3.1

 

1.5

 

Operating expenses (1)

 

0.6

 

1.1

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

0.7

 

0.4

 

0.8

 

2.8

 

1.9

 

Total expenses

 

$

5.3

 

$

3.8

 

$

(2.6

)

$

3.2

 

$

2.4

 

$

2.0

 

$

2.4

 

$

6.6

 

$

6.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

3.1

 

$

11.2

 

$

7.7

 

$

2.0

 

$

2.2

 

$

3.1

 

$

1.9

 

$

21.9

 

$

7.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

-14.3

%

-22.0

%

-105.9

%

-37.8

%

4.3

%

 

6.9

%

-34.7

%

3.5

%

Expense ratio

 

77.6

%

47.5

%

55.5

%

98.5

%

47.4

%

39.6

%

48.5

%

57.8

%

44.9

%

Combined ratio

 

63.3

%

25.5

%

-50.4

%

60.7

%

51.7

%

39.6

%

55.4

%

23.1

%

48.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Risk in force

 

$

2,201

 

$

2,394

 

$

2,437

 

$

2,325

 

$

2,582

 

$

2,547

 

$

2,389

 

$

2,437

 

$

2,389

 

Risk written

 

237

 

 

136

 

271

 

419

 

 

 

372

 

419

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

57.6

 

43.5

 

43.7

 

42.7

 

57.5

 

54.2

 

51.5

 

43.7

 

51.5

 

 


(1) 2Q-04 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

10



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Other Segment

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-04

 

2Q-04

 

3Q-04

 

4Q-04

 

1Q-05

 

2Q-05

 

3Q-05

 

YTD 2004

 

YTD 2005

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

(93.6

)

$

10.0

 

$

5.2

 

$

3.8

 

$

0.9

 

$

9.5

 

$

21.6

 

$

(78.4

)

$

32.0

 

Net written premiums

 

(98.5

)

(84.0

)

 

 

 

 

 

(182.5

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

17.2

 

(66.0

)

 

 

 

 

 

(48.9

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

7.5

 

(57.4

)

 

(0.4

)

(1.1

)

 

(1.3

)

(49.9

)

(2.4

)

Profit commission expense

 

0.4

 

0.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.6

 

 

Acquisition costs

 

3.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.7

 

 

Operating expenses (1)

 

3.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.5

 

 

Total expenses

 

$

15.1

 

$

(57.2

)

$

 

$

(0.4

)

$

(1.1

)

$

 

$

(1.3

)

$

(42.0

)

$

(2.4

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

2.1

 

$

(8.8

)

$

 

$

0.4

 

$

1.1

 

$

 

$

1.3

 

$

(7.1

)

$

2.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

43.6

%

87.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

102.0

%

 

Expense ratio

 

44.0

%

-0.3

%

 

 

 

 

 

-16.1

%

 

Combined ratio

 

87.6

%

86.7

%

 

 

 

 

 

85.9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity layer credit protection

 

$

5.4

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

5.4

 

$

 

Trade credit reinsurance

 

9.3

 

(34.6

)

 

 

 

 

 

(25.3

)

 

Title reinsurance

 

2.5

 

0.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.3

 

 

Auto residual value reinsurance

 

 

(32.2

)

 

 

 

 

 

(32.2

)

 

Total net earned premiums

 

$

17.2

 

$

(66.0

)

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

(48.9

)

$

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss): (1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity layer credit protection

 

$

2.5

 

$

0.5

 

$

 

$

0.4

 

$

1.1

 

$

 

$

1.3

 

$

3.0

 

$

2.4

 

Trade credit reinsurance

 

1.4

 

(4.2

)

 

 

 

 

 

(2.8

)

 

Title reinsurance

 

0.7

 

0.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.0

 

 

Auto residual value reinsurance

 

(2.5

)

(5.4

)

 

 

 

 

 

(7.9

)

 

Total underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

2.1

 

$

(8.8

)

$

 

$

0.4

 

$

1.1

 

$

 

$

1.3

 

$

(7.1

)

$

2.4

 

 


(1) 2Q-04 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.

 

11



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Loss and LAE Reserves by Segment, Type of Reserve and by Segment and Type of Reserve

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of
September 30,
2005

 

As of
December 31,
2004

 

Loss and LAE reserves by segment:

 

 

 

 

 

Financial guaranty direct

 

$

18.6

 

$

19.9

 

Financial guaranty reinsurance

 

78.8

 

78.8

 

Mortgage guaranty

 

11.2

 

11.2

 

Other

 

92.6

 

116.6

 

Total

 

$

201.2

 

$

226.5

 

 

 

 

As of
September 30,
2005

 

As of
December 31,
2004

 

Loss and LAE reserves by type:

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

$

49.1

 

$

53.5

 

IBNR

 

88.0

 

105.8

 

Portfolio

 

64.1

 

67.2

 

Total

 

$

201.2

 

$

226.5

 

 

 

 

As of September 30, 2005

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Mortgage
Guaranty

 

Total
Financial
Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Reserves by segment and type:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

$

7.9

 

$

27.9

 

$

0.5

 

$

36.3

 

$

12.8

 

$

49.1

 

IBNR

 

 

 

8.2

 

8.2

 

79.8

 

88.0

 

Portfolio

 

10.7

 

50.9

 

2.5

 

64.1

 

 

64.1

 

Total

 

$

18.6

 

$

78.8

 

$

11.2

 

$

108.6

 

$

92.6

 

$

201.2

 

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2004

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Mortgage
Guaranty

 

Total
Financial
Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Reserves by segment and type:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

$

4.3

 

$

29.1

 

$

0.8

 

$

34.2

 

$

19.3

 

$

53.5

 

IBNR

 

 

 

8.5

 

8.5

 

97.3

 

105.8

 

Portfolio

 

15.6

 

49.7

 

1.9

 

67.2

 

 

67.2

 

Total

 

$

19.9

 

$

78.8

 

$

11.2

 

$

109.9

 

$

116.6

 

$

226.5

 

 

12



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Investment Portfolio

as of September 30, 2005

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Amortized
Cost

 

Pre-Tax
Book
Yield

 

Fair Value

 

Annualized
Investment
Income

 

Fixed maturity securities available for sale:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies

 

$

179.3

 

4.0

%

$

181.7

 

$

7.2

 

Agency obligations

 

184.4

 

5.3

%

189.4

 

9.7

 

Foreign government securities

 

17.1

 

4.9

%

17.4

 

0.8

 

Obligations of states and political subdivisions

 

330.7

 

4.7

%

348.0

 

15.6

 

Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions

 

508.5

 

4.8

%

540.0

 

24.6

 

Corporate securities

 

137.9

 

5.6

%

143.1

 

7.7

 

Mortgage-backed securities:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pass-thrus

 

556.3

 

5.0

%

556.1

 

28.0

 

PACs

 

76.3

 

4.6

%

75.6

 

3.5

 

Asset-backed securities

 

141.6

 

4.2

%

141.3

 

5.9

 

Total fixed maturity securities available for sale

 

2,132.1

 

4.8

%

2,192.5

 

103.1

 

Short-term investments

 

62.8

 

3.3

%

62.8

 

2.0

 

Total investments

 

$

2,194.9

 

4.8

%

$

2,255.3

 

$

105.1

 

 

 

 

Fair Value

 

%

 

Ratings distribution(1):

 

 

 

 

 

Treasury and U.S. government obligations

 

$

181.7

 

8.3

%

Agency obligations

 

189.4

 

8.6

%

AAA/Aaa

 

1,474.9

 

67.3

%

AA/Aa

 

252.5

 

11.5

%

A/A

 

94.0

 

4.3

%

BBB/Baa

 

 

 

Total

 

$

2,192.5

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Duration of investment portfolio (in years):

 

 

 

4.4

 

 


(1)  Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody’s Investor Services and Standard & Poor’s classifications.

 

13



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Gross Par Written

 

As of September 30, 2005:

 

Sector

 

3Q 2005

 

3Q 2004

 

Net Par Outstanding

 

%

 

Avg. Rating (7)

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

292

 

$

289

 

$

11,690

 

12.0

%

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

142

 

422

 

10,463

 

10.8

%

A+

 

Tax backed

 

295

 

679

 

10,445

 

10.7

%

A+

 

Healthcare

 

342

 

336

 

6,223

 

6.4

%

A

 

Transportation

 

292

 

50

 

6,102

 

6.3

%

A

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

120

 

147

 

1,392

 

1.4

%

A-

 

Housing

 

14

 

25

 

1,165

 

1.2

%

AA-

 

Higher education

 

65

 

56

 

1,135

 

1.2

%

A+

 

Structured municipal (1)

 

 

 

988

 

1.0

%

AAA

 

Other public finance (2)

 

6

 

11

 

734

 

0.8

%

A+

 

Total public finance

 

$

1,568

 

$

2,015

 

$

50,337

 

51.7

%

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDOs (3)

 

$

3,698

 

$

221

 

$

18,794

 

19.3

%

AA+

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

794

 

655

 

9,247

 

9.5

%

AA-

 

Commercial receivables (4)

 

294

 

161

 

4,349

 

4.5

%

AA-

 

Consumer receivables (5)

 

25

 

554

 

2,439

 

2.5

%

A

 

Other structured finance (6)

 

132

 

133

 

1,627

 

1.7

%

AA

 

Single name corporate CDS

 

 

 

11

 

 

A

 

Total structured finance

 

$

4,943

 

$

1,724

 

$

36,467

 

37.5

%

AA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Structured finance

 

$

284

 

$

(364

)

$

6,096

 

6.3

%

AA-

 

Project finance/PFI/PPP

 

56

 

230

 

3,222

 

3.3

%

BBB+

 

Public finance

 

10

 

524

 

1,197

 

1.2

%

A-

 

Total international

 

$

350

 

$

390

 

$

10,516

 

10.8

%

A

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

6,862

 

$

4,130

 

$

97,320

 

100.0

%

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage guaranty risk in force

 

$

 

$

136

 

$

2,389

 

NA

 

NA

 

 


(1)  Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

 

(2)  Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

 

(3)  Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

 

(4)  Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

 

(5)  Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

 

(6)  Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.

 

(7)  Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

 

14



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 3)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio

 

 

 

September 30, 2005

 

December 31, 2004

 

Ratings (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

31,247

 

32.1

%

$

29,696

 

31.1

%

AA/Aa

 

19,981

 

20.5

%

19,856

 

20.8

%

A/A

 

30,579

 

31.4

%

31,393

 

32.8

%

BBB/Baa

 

14,186

 

14.6

%

13,137

 

13.7

%

Below investment grade

 

1,327

 

1.4

%

1,509

 

1.6

%

Total exposures

 

$

97,320

 

100.0

%

$

95,592

 

100.0

%

 

Distribution by ratings of CDO exposure

 

 

 

September 30, 2005

 

December 31, 2004

 

Ratings (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

16,760

 

79.3

%

$

12,975

 

75.2

%

AA/Aa

 

3,617

 

17.1

%

2,784

 

16.1

%

A/A

 

449

 

2.1

%

1,155

 

6.7

%

BBB/Baa

 

194

 

0.9

%

216

 

1.3

%

Below investment grade

 

112

 

0.5

%

116

 

0.7

%

Total exposures

 

$

21,132

 

100.0

%

$

17,246

 

100.0

%

 

Distribution of CDOs by year of issue as of September 30, 2005

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

1999 and prior

 

$

47

 

0.2

%

2000

 

576

 

2.7

%

2001

 

4,239

 

20.1

%

2002

 

3,538

 

16.7

%

2003

 

3,589

 

17.0

%

2004

 

1,586

 

7.5

%

2005 year to date

 

7,557

 

35.8

%

 

 

$

21,132

 

100.0

%

 


(1)  Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

 

15



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 3)

(dollars in millions)

 

Geographic distribution of financial guaranty portfolio, as of September 30, 2005

 

U.S.:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

California

 

$

7,324

 

7.5

%

New York

 

5,694

 

5.9

%

Texas

 

3,452

 

3.5

%

Illinois

 

2,846

 

2.9

%

Florida

 

2,708

 

2.8

%

New Jersey

 

2,285

 

2.3

%

Massachusetts

 

2,258

 

2.3

%

Pennsylvania

 

2,204

 

2.3

%

Washington

 

1,766

 

1.8

%

Puerto Rico

 

1,530

 

1.6

%

Other states

 

18,269

 

18.8

%

Mortgage and structured (multiple states)

 

36,467

 

37.5

%

Total U.S.

 

$

86,804

 

89.2

%

 

International:

 

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom

 

$

5,647

 

5.8

%

Germany

 

902

 

0.9

%

Australia

 

796

 

0.8

%

Turkey

 

367

 

0.4

%

Brazil

 

334

 

0.3

%

Other

 

2,469

 

2.5

%

Total International

 

$

10,516

 

10.8

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

97,320

 

100.0

%

 

16



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Non-Investment Grade Exposures

as of September 30, 2005

(dollars in millions)

 

Non-Investment Grade Exposures by:

 

Asset Type

 

Weighted Average
Remaining Life

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Average
Rating (6)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Transportation

 

20.5

 

$

226.9

 

B

 

Healthcare

 

11.3

 

25.5

 

BB-

 

General obligation

 

8.9

 

1.0

 

BB+

 

Other public finance (1)

 

14.1

 

3.5

 

D

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

15.2

 

11.5

 

BB-

 

Municipal utilities

 

11.2

 

13.4

 

C

 

Tax backed

 

9.8

 

9.4

 

B

 

Housing

 

12.0

 

4.6

 

B+

 

Higher education

 

12.0

 

1.0

 

BB+

 

Project Finance / PPI / PPP

 

16.3

 

204.2

 

B+

 

Total public finance

 

17.6

 

$

500.9

 

B

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer receivables (2)

 

3.6

 

$

255.7

 

BB

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

10.9

 

177.6

 

CCC+

 

Commercial receivables (3)

 

8.8

 

274.5

 

B+

 

CDOs (4)

 

3.3

 

112.2

 

B-

 

Other structured finance (5)

 

5.2

 

6.2

 

CCC-

 

Total structured finance

 

6.9

 

$

826.2

 

B+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total non-investment grade exposures

 

10.9

 

$

1,327.1

 

B+

 

 

Top Ten Non-Investment Grade Exposures as of September 30, 2005

 

Name or Description

 

Average Rating

 

Weighted Average
Remaining Life

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Public Finance Domestic Project Finance Transaction

 

B

 

21.9

 

$

176

 

Public Finance International Project Finance Transaction

 

B

 

17.8

 

170

 

Structured Finance Domestic Credit Card Transaction

 

BB

 

3.8

 

155

 

Structured Finance Domestic EETC Transaction

 

B+

 

9.0

 

144

 

Structured Finance Domestic Credit Card Transaction

 

BB+

 

3.4

 

79

 

Structured Finance Domestic Manufactured Housing Transaction

 

CCC+

 

6.8

 

75

 

Structured Finance Domestic EETC Transaction

 

BB

 

9.8

 

67

 

International Airport Facility

 

BB

 

8.1

 

34

 

Public Finance Domestic Transportation Transaction

 

BB+

 

13.1

 

29

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

D

 

0.1

 

25

 

Total

 

BB-

 

11.4

 

$

953

 

 


(1)  Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

 

(2)  Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

 

(3)  Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

 

(4)  Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

 

(5)  Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.

 

(6)  Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

 

17



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Closely Monitored Credits (“CMC”)

(dollars in millions)

 

Net par outstanding by credit monitoring category (1)

 

 

 

September 30, 2005

 

Description

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Number of Credits
in Category

 

Fundamentally sound risk

 

$

95,713

 

98.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closely monitored credits:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Category 1

 

993

 

1.0

%

43

 

Category 2

 

353

 

0.4

%

11

 

Category 3

 

149

 

0.1

%

18

 

Category 4

 

12

 

 

10

 

CMC Total

 

1,507

 

1.5

%

82

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other below investment grade risk

 

100

 

0.1

%

137

 

Total

 

$

97,320

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

December 31, 2004

 

Description

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Number of Credits
in Category

 

Fundamentally sound risk

 

$

93,602

 

97.9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closely monitored credits:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Category 1

 

1,490

 

1.6

%

35

 

Category 2

 

165

 

0.2

%

9

 

Category 3

 

70

 

0.1

%

16

 

Category 4

 

12

 

 

8

 

CMC Total

 

1,737

 

1.8

%

68

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other below investment grade risk

 

253

 

0.3

%

144

 

Total

 

$

95,592

 

100.0

%

 

 

 


(1)  Our risk management department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of closely monitored credits. The closely monitored credits are divided into four categories: Category 1 (low priority; fundamentally sound, greater than normal risk); Category 2 (medium priority; weakening credit profile, may result in loss); Category 3 (high priority; claim/default probable, case reserve established); Category 4 (claim paid, case reserve established for future payments). Credits that are not included in the closely monitored credit list are categorized as fundamentally sound, normal risk.

 

18



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 1 of 2)

as of September 30, 2005

(dollars in millions)

 

10 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures

 

Revenue Source

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

California State General Obligation & Leases

 

$

790

 

A-

 

New Jersey State General Obligation & Leases

 

747

 

AA-

 

Long Island Power Authority

 

711

 

A-

 

New York City General Obligation

 

640

 

A

 

New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority

 

629

 

AA+

 

Denver Colorado Airport System

 

627

 

A

 

Massachusetts State General Obligation & Bay Transportation

 

583

 

AA-

 

Jefferson County Alabama Sewer

 

578

 

A

 

Houston Texas Water & Sewer System

 

562

 

A+

 

Chicago Illinois General Obligation

 

536

 

A+

 

Total top 10 public finance exposures

 

$

6,404

 

 

 

 

10 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures

 

Revenue Source

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

Park Place 2004-MHQ1 Class A-1

 

$

1,036

 

AAA

 

Structured Finance Corporate Pool

 

781

 

AA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

740

 

AAA

 

Ameriquest Mortgage Inc. 2004-R10 A-1

 

685

 

AAA

 

Argent Securities Inc. 2004-W11 A-1

 

640

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG ABS

 

594

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

571

 

AAA

 

Synthetic Credit Card Master Trust

 

550

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

500

 

AAA

 

Field Point I & II, Limited Class A1 & A2

 

447

 

AA-

 

Total top 10 structured finance exposures

 

$

6,545

 

 

 

 


(1) Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

 

19



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 2 of 2)

as of September 30, 2005

(dollars in millions)

 

10 Largest Healthcare Exposures

 

Revenue Source

 

Net Par
Outstanding(2)

 

Rating(1)

 

State

 

Public Finance Domestic Hospital System

 

$

205

 

A-

 

CA

 

Public Finance Domestic Hospital System

 

187

 

A+

 

TX

 

Public Finance Domestic Hospital System

 

176

 

AA-

 

CA

 

Public Finance Domestic Hospital System

 

158

 

AA

 

MO

 

Public Finance Domestic Hospital System

 

113

 

A+

 

PA

 

Public Finance Domestic Hospital System

 

112

 

BBB+

 

NJ

 

Public Finance Domestic Hospital System

 

110

 

BBB

 

MD

 

Public Finance Domestic Hospital - Stand Alone

 

102

 

AA

 

TX

 

Public Finance Domestic Hospital System

 

98

 

BBB+

 

MN

 

Public Finance Domestic Health Care - Pool

 

91

 

BBB+

 

MD

 

Total top 10 healthcare exposures

 

$

1,351

 

 

 

 

 

 

10 Largest International Exposures

 

Revenue Source

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

Synthetic CDO - IG ABS

 

$

584

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

500

 

AAA

 

Structured Finance - International Whole Business Securitization

 

276

 

BBB+

 

Structured Finance - International Equipment Lease Transaction

 

230

 

A

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

200

 

AAA

 

Public Finance - International Project Finance Transaction

 

190

 

BBB+

 

Dekania Europe CDO I PLC

 

185

 

AAA

 

Structured Finance - International Residential Mortgage Transaction

 

168

 

A+

 

Structured Finance - International Future Flow Transaction

 

165

 

BBB-

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

153

 

AAA

 

Total top 10 international exposures

 

$

2,650

 

 

 

 


(1) Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

(2) Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.

 

20



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of September 30, 2005

 

As of December 31, 2004

 

 

 

AGC

 

AG Re (1)

 

Consolidated

 

AGC

 

AG Re (1)

 

Consolidated

 

Statutory surplus and reserves

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve (2)

 

$

226

 

$

352

 

$

578

 

$

406

 

$

186

 

$

592

 

Contingency reserve

 

556

 

 

556

 

518

 

 

518

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

283

 

676

 

959

 

237

 

596

 

833

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves

 

13

 

114

 

127

 

32

 

103

 

135

 

Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves

 

$

1,078

 

$

1,142

 

$

2,220

 

$

1,193

 

$

885

 

$

2,078

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Claims paying resources

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

$

283

 

$

676

 

$

959

 

$

237

 

$

596

 

$

833

 

Contingency reserve

 

556

 

 

556

 

518

 

 

518

 

Qualified statutory capital

 

839

 

676

 

1,515

 

755

 

596

 

1,351

 

Unearned premium reserve (2)

 

226

 

352

 

578

 

406

 

186

 

592

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves

 

13

 

114

 

127

 

32

 

103

 

135

 

Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves

 

1,078

 

1,142

 

2,220

 

1,193

 

885

 

2,078

 

Present value of installment premium

 

241

 

161

 

402

 

268

 

132

 

400

 

Standby line of credit/stop loss

 

455

 

 

455

 

255

 

 

255

 

Total claims paying resources

 

$

1,774

 

$

1,303

 

$

3,077

 

$

1,716

 

$

1,017

 

$

2,734

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par insured outstanding

 

$

53,116

 

$

44,203

 

$

97,320

 

$

74,001

 

$

21,590

 

$

95,592

 

Net debt service outstanding

 

$

71,537

 

$

67,556

 

$

139,093

 

$

105,831

 

$

30,288

 

$

136,120

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par insured to statutory capital

 

63:1

 

65:1

 

64:1

 

98:1

 

36:1

 

71:1

 

Capital ratio(3)

 

85:1

 

100:1

 

92:1

 

140:1

 

51:1

 

101:1

 

Financial resources ratio(4)

 

40:1

 

52:1

 

45:1

 

62:1

 

30:1

 

50:1

 

 


(1) AG Re numbers are our estimate of US statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements.

(2) Unearned premium reserve for AG Re is U.S. GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums.

(3) Capital ratio is net par and interest insured divided by qualified statutory capital.

(4) Financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.

 

21



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Summary Financial and Statistical Data

(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

YTD 2005

 

2004

 

2003

 

2002

 

2001

 

2000

 

GAAP Summary Income Statement Data

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross premiums written

 

$

194.1

 

$

190.9

 

$

349.2

 

$

417.2

 

$

442.9

 

$

206.0

 

Net earned premiums

 

150.9

 

187.9

 

310.9

 

247.4

 

293.5

 

140.7

 

Net investment income

 

71.2

 

94.8

 

96.3

 

97.2

 

99.5

 

98.1

 

Total expenses

 

29.2

 

114.6

 

266.1

 

218.8

 

282.8

 

131.8

 

Income before provision for income taxes

 

187.6

 

233.3

 

246.2

 

83.2

 

110.1

 

118.1

 

Net income

 

150.3

 

182.8

 

214.5

 

72.6

 

63.8

 

93.2

 

Operating income

 

155.4

 

141.1

 

127.3

 

115.7

 

96.1

 

87.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income per diluted share

 

$

2.02

 

$

2.44

 

$

2.86

 

$

0.97

 

$

0.85

 

$

1.24

 

Operating income per diluted share

 

$

2.09

 

$

1.88

 

$

1.70

 

$

1.54

 

$

1.28

 

$

1.17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Ratios

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

 

-45.9

%

-17.0

%

46.5

%

48.6

%

60.5

%

21.6

%

Expense ratio

 

56.5

%

65.4

%

37.2

%

35.5

%

30.6

%

61.2

%

Combined ratio

 

10.6

%

48.4

%

83.7

%

84.1

%

91.1

%

82.8

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data (end of period)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total investments and cash

 

$

2,262.4

 

$

2,157.9

 

$

2,222.1

 

$

2,061.9

 

$

1,710.8

 

$

1,549.6

 

Total assets

 

2,766.7

 

2,694.0

 

2,857.9

 

2,719.9

 

2,322.1

 

1,913.7

 

Unearned premium reserves

 

527.9

 

521.3

 

625.4

 

613.3

 

500.3

 

444.6

 

Loss and LAE reserves

 

201.2

 

226.5

 

522.6

 

458.8

 

401.1

 

171.0

 

Long-term debt

 

197.3

 

197.4

 

75.0

 

75.0

 

150.0

 

150.0

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

1,633.6

 

1,527.6

 

1,437.6

 

1,257.2

 

1,061.6

 

994.5

 

Book value per share

 

$

21.81

 

$

20.19

 

$

19.17

 

$

16.76

 

$

14.15

 

$

13.26

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Financial Information

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net debt service outstanding (end of period)

 

$

139,093

 

$

136,120

 

$

130,047

 

$

124,082

 

$

117,909

 

$

102,744

 

Net par outstanding (end of period)

 

97,320

 

95,592

 

87,524

 

80,394

 

75,249

 

65,756

 

Gross par outstanding (end of period)

 

100,281

 

98,221

 

90,366

 

83,067

 

79,883

 

67,730

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated qualified statutory capital

 

1,515

 

1,351

 

1,216

 

1,133

 

1,095

 

1,004

 

Consolidated policyholders’ surplus & reserves

 

2,220

 

2,078

 

1,145

 

2,041

 

1,744

 

1,482

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par insured to statutory capital

 

64:1

 

71:1

 

72:1

 

71:1

 

69:1

 

66:1

 

Capital ratio(1)

 

92:1

 

101:1

 

107:1

 

110:1

 

108:1

 

102:1

 

Financial resources ratio(2)

 

45:1

 

50:1

 

43:1

 

40:1

 

50:1

 

56:1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Debt service written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

10,791

 

$

14,493

 

$

12,130

 

$

14,312

 

$

8,694

 

$

7,385

 

Structured finance

 

11,893

 

16,477

 

11,038

 

13,210

 

12,627

 

9,054

 

Total debt service written

 

$

22,684

 

$

30,970

 

$

23,168

 

$

27,522

 

$

21,321

 

$

16,439

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S.

 

$

19,952

 

$

27,073

 

$

19,346

 

$

25,453

 

$

19,196

 

$

15,451

 

International

 

2,732

 

3,897

 

3,822

 

2,069

 

2,125

 

988

 

Total debt service written

 

$

22,684

 

$

30,970

 

$

23,168

 

$

27,522

 

$

21,321

 

$

16,439

 

 


(1) Capital ratio is net par and interest insured divided by qualified statutory capital.

(2) Financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.

 

22



 

Endnotes related to non-GAAP financial measures discussed in the operating supplement:

 

(a) PVP, which is a non-GAAP measure, represents gross premiums related to financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty contracts written in the current period, including upfront and installment premiums received on contracts written in the current period and the present value of estimated future installment premiums, discounted at 6% per year.   We use 6% as the present value discount because it is the approximate taxable equivalent yield on our investment portfolio for the periods presented.  Present value of installment premiums in-force, which is a non-GAAP measure, represents our future premiums on our in-force book of installment premium business in our financial guaranty direct and financial guaranty reinsurance segments. It is calculated net of reinsurance ceded and using a discount rate of 6%. We believe PVP and Present value of installment premiums in-force are useful measures for management, equity analysts and investors because they permit the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty by taking into account the value of installment premiums on new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, which the GAAP gross premiums written does not adequately measure.

 

(b) Operating income, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as net income excluding after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments.  Operating ROE represents operating income as a percentage of average shareholder’s equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI).  We believe the presentation of operating income and operating ROE enhances the understanding of our results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of our insurance business.  We exclude net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, the market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict.  This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for net income determined in accordance with GAAP.

 

(c) Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is derived by beginning with shareholder’s equity (book value) and adding or subtracting the after-tax value of: the financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty net unearned premium reserve; deferred acquisition costs and the present value of estimated net future installment premiums (discounted at 6%).  The adjustments described above will not be realized until future periods and may differ materially from the amounts used in determining adjusted book value.  Management, investors and analysts use the calculation of adjusted book value to evaluate the net present value of the Company’s in-force premium and capital base.

 



 

 

 

 

 

Contacts:

 

 

 

 

 

Equity investors and media

 

 

Sabra Purtill

 

 

Managing Director, Investor Relations

 

 

(212) 408-6044

 

 

spurtill@assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

 

 

Chris McNamee

 

 

Assistant Vice President, Investor Relations

 

 

(212) 261-5509

 

 

cmcnamee@assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed income investors

 

 

Patrick Early

 

 

Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations

 

 

(212) 408 6043

 

 

pearly@assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

Michael Walker

30 Woodbourne Avenue

 

Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations

Hamilton HM 08 Bermuda

 

(212) 261-5575

www.assuredguaranty.com

 

mwalker@assuredguaranty.com

 


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