EX-99.1 2 a04-12377_3ex99d1.htm EX-99.1

Exhibit 99.1

 

 

Quarterly Financial Supplement

Third Quarter 2004

September 30, 2004

 

Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

Selected Financial Highlights

 

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

 

Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

 

Segment Consolidation

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment

 

Mortgage Guaranty Segment

 

Other Segment

 

Loss and LAE Reserves

 

Fixed Income Investment Portfolio

 

Financial Guaranty Profile

 

25 Largest Public Finance Exposures

 

25 Largest Structured Finance Exposures

 

Largest Single Name Corporate/Sovereign CDS Exposures

 

Consolidated Capital & Claims Paying Resources

 

Summary Financial and Statistical Data

 

 

 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

 

Financial Statements

 

Fixed Income Investment Portfolio

 

Financial Guaranty Profile

 

25 Largest Public Finance Exposures

 

25 Largest Structured Finance Exposures

 

Statutory Capital & Claims Paying Resources

 

 

 

Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.

 

Financial Statements

 

Financial Guaranty Profile

 

Capital & Claims Paying Resources

 

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
30 Woodbourne Avenue
Hamilton HM 08 Bermuda
www.assuredguaranty.com

Investor contact:
Sabra Purtill
(212) 408-6044
spurtill@assuredguaranty.com

 



 

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:

 

Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement, such as its statements regarding PVP, reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

 

Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, the Company’s forward-looking statements could be affected by a significant reduction in the amount of reinsurance ceded by one or more of our principal ceding companies, rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy, contract cancellations, developments in the world’s financial and capital markets, more severe losses or more frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserve, changes in regulation or tax laws, the Company’s dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, and changes in general economic conditions, as well as management’s response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

 

Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

 



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Selected Financial Highlights

(dollars in millions except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Quarters Ended
September 30,

 

% Change
versus
3Q-03

 

Nine Months Ended
September 30,

 

% Change
versus
YTD 2003

 

2004

 

2003

2004

 

2003

Gross written premiums (GWP) analysis:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Present value of financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP (PVP) (a)

 

$

48.0

 

$

107.1

 

-55

%

$

207.5

 

$

208.9

 

-1

%

Less:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Installment premium PVP

 

(23.5

)

(60.5

)

-61

%

(111.7

)

(124.6

)

-10

%

Upfront financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP

 

24.5

 

46.6

 

-48

%

95.7

 

84.3

 

14

%

Plus:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Installment GWP

 

32.6

 

37.6

 

-13

%

107.8

 

115.1

 

-6

%

Financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP

 

57.1

 

84.2

 

-32

%

203.5

 

199.4

 

2

%

Other segment GWP

 

5.2

 

26.0

 

-80

%

(78.4

)

105.1

 

-175

%

Total gross written premiums

 

$

62.3

 

$

110.2

 

-43

%

$

125.1

 

$

304.5

 

-59

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

44.5

 

$

42.9

 

4

%

$

134.8

 

$

117.1

 

15

%

less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

0.8

 

1.0

 

-20

%

7.1

 

4.1

 

73

%

less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives

 

10.1

 

12.6

 

-20

%

22.2

 

20.0

 

11

%

Operating income (b)

 

$

33.6

 

$

29.3

 

15

%

$

105.5

 

$

93.0

 

13

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

1,487.9

 

$

1,349.1

 

10

%

$

1,487.9

 

$

1,349.1

 

10

%

Net unearned premium reserve less DAC, after-tax (1)

 

259.1

 

213.1

 

 

259.1

 

213.1

 

 

Net present value of installment premiums in-force, after-tax

 

281.4

 

264.1

 

7

%

281.4

 

264.1

 

7

%

Adjusted book value(c)

 

$

2,028.4

 

$

1,826.3

 

11

%

$

2,028.4

 

$

1,826.3

 

11

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ROE, excluding AOCI

 

12.8

%

13.8

%

-7

%

13.0

%

12.9

%

2

%

less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

0.2

%

0.3

%

-28

%

0.7

%

0.5

%

53

%

less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives

 

2.9

%

4.1

%

-28

%

2.1

%

2.2

%

-2

%

Operating ROE, excluding AOCI (b)

 

9.7

%

9.5

%

3

%

10.2

%

10.2

%

0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average basic shares outstanding in millions (2)

 

75.0

 

75.0

 

 

75.0

 

75.0

 

 

Average diluted shares outstanding in millions

 

75.0

 

75.0

 

 

75.0

 

75.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per diluted share:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

0.59

 

$

0.57

 

4

%

$

1.80

 

$

1.56

 

15

%

less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

0.01

 

0.01

 

 

0.09

 

0.05

 

73

%

less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives

 

0.13

 

0.17

 

-24

%

0.30

 

0.27

 

11

%

Operating income (b)

 

$

0.45

 

$

0.39

 

15

%

$

1.41

 

$

1.24

 

13

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

19.58

 

$

17.99

 

9

%

$

19.58

 

$

17.99

 

9

%

Net unearned premium reserve less DAC, after-tax (1)

 

3.41

 

2.84

 

 

 

3.41

 

2.84

 

 

 

Net present value of installment premiums in-force, after-tax

 

3.70

 

3.52

 

5

%

3.70

 

3.52

 

5

%

Adjusted book value (c)

 

$

26.69

 

$

24.35

 

10

%

$

26.69

 

$

24.35

 

10

%

 


(1)   Unearned premium reserve (UPR) less pre-paid reinsurance premiums and deferred acquisition costs (DAC), all after-tax

 

(2)   Historical amounts represent shares issued upon the IPO closing

 

Note:  Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b) and adjusted book value (c)]

 

1



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended
September 30

 

% Change
versus
3Q-03

 

Nine Months Ended
September 30

 

% Change
versus
YTD 2003

 

2004

 

2003

2004

 

2003

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

62.3

 

$

110.2

 

-43

%

$

125.1

 

$

304.5

 

-59

%

Net written premiums

 

55.1

 

109.9

 

-50

%

18.3

 

333.0

 

-95

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

53.4

 

78.2

 

-32

%

130.7

 

223.9

 

-42

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net investment income

 

23.2

 

23.8

 

-3

%

71.0

 

71.9

 

-1

%

Other income

 

 

0.2

 

-100

%

0.6

 

1.0

 

-40

%

Total revenues

 

$

76.6

 

$

102.2

 

-25

%

$

202.3

 

$

296.8

 

-32

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

4.2

 

32.9

 

-87

%

(32.2

)

91.9

 

-135

%

Profit commission expenses

 

1.1

 

1.9

 

-42

%

11.2

 

7.6

 

47

%

Acquisition costs

 

14.2

 

17.9

 

-21

%

35.6

 

49.1

 

-27

%

Other operating expenses

 

14.1

 

12.3

 

15

%

53.3

 

31.6

 

69

%

Goodwill expense

 

 

 

 

1.6

 

 

 

Interest expense

 

3.4

 

1.4

 

143

%

7.4

 

4.3

 

72

%

Total expenses

 

$

37.0

 

$

66.4

 

-44

%

$

76.9

 

$

184.5

 

-58

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income before provision for income taxes

 

39.6

 

35.8

 

11

%

125.4

 

112.3

 

12

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total provision for income taxes

 

6.1

 

6.5

 

-6

%

19.9

 

19.3

 

3

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

33.6

 

$

29.3

 

15

%

$

105.5

 

$

93.0

 

13

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After-tax net realized gains on investments

 

0.8

 

1.0

 

-20

%

7.1

 

4.1

 

73

%

After-tax unrealized gains on derivative instruments

 

10.1

 

12.6

 

-20

%

22.2

 

20.0

 

11

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

44.5

 

$

42.9

 

4

%

$

134.8

 

$

117.1

 

15

%

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b) and adjusted book value (c)]

 

2



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of :

 

 

 

September 30,
2004

 

December 31,
2003

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assets

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed maturity securities available for sale, at fair value

 

$

1,948.7

 

$

2,052.2

 

Short-term investments, at cost, which approximates market

 

164.3

 

137.5

 

Total investments

 

2,113.0

 

2,189.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash

 

13.4

 

32.4

 

Accrued investment income

 

22.3

 

23.8

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

186.9

 

178.7

 

Premium receivable

 

40.0

 

64.0

 

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

20.6

 

11.0

 

Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses

 

185.7

 

122.1

 

Due from affiliate

 

 

115.0

 

Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments

 

26.3

 

––

 

Value of reinsurance business assumed

 

 

14.2

 

Goodwill

 

85.4

 

87.1

 

Other assets

 

22.9

 

20.0

 

Total assets

 

$

2,716.7

 

$

2,857.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve

 

$

522.4

 

$

625.4

 

Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

297.4

 

522.6

 

Profit commissions payable

 

57.2

 

71.2

 

Reinsurance balances payable

 

26.7

 

4.9

 

Deferred federal income taxes payable

 

20.7

 

55.6

 

Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments

 

 

8.6

 

Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts

 

54.0

 

9.6

 

Long-term debt

 

197.3

 

75.0

 

Other liabilities

 

53.0

 

47.2

 

Total liabilities

 

1,228.8

 

1,420.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Common stock

 

0.8

 

16.4

 

Treasury stock

 

(7.9

)

 

Additional paid-in capital

 

900.2

 

955.5

 

Accumulated other comprehensive income

 

80.2

 

81.2

 

Unearned stock grant compensation

 

(7.7

)

(5.5

)

Retained earnings

 

522.3

 

390.0

 

Total shareholders’ equity

 

1,487.9

 

1,437.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

$

2,716.7

 

$

2,857.9

 

 

3



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Segment Consolidation

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended September 30, 2004

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance(1)

 

Mortgage
Guaranty

 

Subtotal

 

Other

 

Total

 

Present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP): (a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

 

$

33.9

 

$

 

$

33.9

 

 

 

$

33.9

 

Structured finance

 

7.9

 

5.0

 

1.1

 

14.0

 

 

 

14.0

 

Total PVP

 

$

7.9

 

$

38.9

 

$

1.1

 

$

48.0

 

 

 

$

48.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

16.2

 

$

35.6

 

$

5.3

 

$

57.1

 

$

5.2

 

$

62.3

 

Net written premiums

 

14.2

 

35.6

 

5.3

 

55.1

 

 

55.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

16.5

 

31.9

 

5.1

 

53.4

 

 

53.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(1.2

)

10.8

 

(5.4

)

4.2

 

 

4.2

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

(0.2

)

1.3

 

1.1

 

 

1.1

 

Acquisition costs

 

1.4

 

12.1

 

0.5

 

14.2

 

 

 

14.2

 

Operating expenses

 

4.3

 

8.4

 

1.3

 

14.1

 

 

14.1

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

4.5

 

$

31.1

 

$

(2.3

)

$

33.6

 

$

 

$

33.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

12.0

 

$

0.8

 

$

7.4

 

$

20.0

 

$

 

$

20.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

-7.3

%

33.9

%

-105.9

%

7.9

%

0.0

%

7.9

%

Expense ratio

 

34.5

%

63.6

%

60.8

%

54.8

%

0.0

%

54.8

%

Combined ratio

 

27.3

%

97.5

%

-45.1

%

62.7

%

0.0

%

62.7

%

 

 

 

Quarter Ended September 30, 2003

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance(1)

 

Mortgage
Guaranty

 

Subtotal

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

1.5

 

$

57.5

 

$

 

$

59.0

 

 

 

$

59.0

 

Structured finance

 

36.7

 

10.8

 

0.6

 

48.1

 

 

 

48.1

 

Total PVP

 

$

38.2

 

$

68.3

 

$

0.6

 

$

107.1

 

 

 

$

107.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

17.1

 

$

61.4

 

$

5.7

 

$

84.2

 

$

26.0

 

$

110.2

 

Net written premiums

 

17.0

 

61.2

 

5.7

 

83.9

 

26.0

 

109.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

16.0

 

21.4

 

5.6

 

43.0

 

35.2

 

78.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

4.7

 

7.7

 

(3.9

)

8.5

 

24.4

 

32.9

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

 

1.6

 

1.6

 

0.3

 

1.9

 

Acquisition costs

 

1.2

 

8.2

 

1.0

 

10.4

 

7.5

 

17.9

 

Operating expenses

 

2.5

 

3.4

 

0.9

 

6.8

 

5.5

 

12.3

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

8.4

 

$

19.3

 

$

(0.4

)

$

27.3

 

$

37.7

 

$

65.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

7.6

 

$

2.1

 

$

6.0

 

$

15.7

 

$

(2.5

)

$

13.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

29.4

%

36.0

%

-69.6

%

19.8

%

69.3

%

42.1

%

Expense ratio

 

23.1

%

54.2

%

62.5

%

43.7

%

37.8

%

41.0

%

Combined ratio

 

52.5

%

90.2

%

-7.1

%

63.5

%

107.1

%

83.1

%

 


(1)   Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross installment premiums written (PVP), par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b) and adjusted book value (c)]

4



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Segment Consolidation

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Nine Months Ended September 30, 2004

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance(1)

 

Mortgage
Guaranty

 

Subtotal

 

Other

 

Total

 

Present value of financial guaranty GWP (PVP): (a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

2.9

 

$

110.9

 

$

 

$

113.8

 

 

 

$

113.8

 

Structured finance

 

27.2

 

46.2

 

20.3

 

93.6

 

 

 

93.6

 

Total PVP

 

$

30.1

 

$

157.1

 

$

20.3

 

$

207.5

 

 

 

$

207.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

59.5

 

$

123.8

 

$

20.2

 

$

203.5

 

$

(78.4

)

$

125.1

 

Net written premiums

 

56.8

 

123.8

 

20.2

 

200.8

 

(182.5

)

18.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

73.3

 

77.9

 

28.5

 

179.7

 

(48.9

)

130.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

13.8

 

13.7

 

(9.9

)

17.6

 

(49.8

)

(32.2

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

0.2

 

10.6

 

10.6

 

0.6

 

11.4

 

Acquisition costs

 

2.9

 

25.8

 

3.1

 

31.8

 

3.8

 

35.7

 

Operating expenses(2)

 

11.9

 

19.4

 

7.0

 

38.3

 

3.6

 

41.9

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

28.6

 

$

59.1

 

$

10.8

 

$

98.3

 

$

(41.8

)

$

56.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

44.7

 

$

18.8

 

$

17.7

 

$

81.4

 

$

(7.1

)

$

73.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

18.8

%

17.6

%

-34.7

%

9.8

%

101.8

%

-24.6

%

Expense ratio

 

20.2

%

58.3

%

72.6

%

44.9

%

-16.4

%

68.1

%

Combined ratio

 

39.0

%

75.9

%

37.9

%

54.7

%

85.5

%

43.5

%

 

 

 

Nine Months Ended September 30, 2003

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance(1)

 

Mortgage
Guaranty

 

Subtotal

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

1.5

 

$

100.1

 

$

 

$

101.6

 

 

 

$

101.6

 

Structured finance

 

72.8

 

33.9

 

0.6

 

107.3

 

 

 

107.3

 

Total PVP

 

$

74.3

 

$

133.9

 

$

0.6

 

$

208.9

 

 

 

$

208.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

54.2

 

$

125.2

 

$

20.0

 

$

199.4

 

$

105.1

 

$

304.5

 

Net written premiums

 

53.4

 

124.2

 

20.0

 

197.6

 

135.4

 

333.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

54.1

 

68.4

 

21.9

 

144.4

 

79.5

 

223.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

13.1

 

10.4

 

1.0

 

24.5

 

67.4

 

91.9

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

1.0

 

6.2

 

7.2

 

0.3

 

7.6

 

Acquisition costs

 

1.2

 

25.6

 

3.5

 

30.3

 

18.8

 

49.1

 

Operating expenses

 

7.1

 

9.3

 

3.6

 

20.0

 

11.6

 

31.6

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

21.4

 

$

46.3

 

$

14.3

 

$

82.0

 

$

98.1

 

$

180.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

32.7

 

$

22.1

 

$

7.6

 

$

62.4

 

$

(18.6

)

$

43.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

24.2

%

15.2

%

4.6

%

17.0

%

84.8

%

41.0

%

Expense ratio

 

15.3

%

52.5

%

60.7

%

39.8

%

38.6

%

39.4

%

Combined ratio

 

39.6

%

67.7

%

65.3

%

56.8

%

123.4

%

80.5

%

 


(1)   Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross installment premiums written (PVP), par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

(2)   YTD 2004 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b) and adjusted book value (c)]

 

5



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-03

 

2Q-03

 

3Q-03

 

4Q-03

 

1Q-04

 

2Q-04

 

3Q-04

 

4Q-04

 

YTD 2003

 

YTD 2004

 

PVP(a):

 

$

20.7

 

$

15.4

 

$

38.2

 

$

21.7

 

$

7.9

 

$

14.4

 

$

7.9

 

$

 

$

74.3

 

$

30.1

 

less: Present value of installment premiums written in period

 

(20.7

)

(15.4

)

(36.7

)

(21.7

)

(7.9

)

(14.4

)

(7.9

)

 

(72.8

)

(30.1

)

Upfront gross written premiums

 

 

 

1.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.5

 

 

plus: Installment gross written premiums

 

14.0

 

23.1

 

15.6

 

17.0

 

25.6

 

17.7

 

16.2

 

 

52.7

 

59.5

 

Financial guaranty gross written premiums

 

$

14.0

 

$

23.1

 

$

17.1

 

$

17.0

 

$

25.6

 

$

17.7

 

$

16.2

 

$

 

$

54.2

 

$

59.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

14.0

 

$

23.1

 

$

17.1

 

$

17.0

 

$

25.6

 

$

17.7

 

$

16.2

 

$

 

$

54.2

 

$

59.5

 

Net written premiums

 

15.8

 

20.6

 

17.0

 

16.6

 

25.3

 

17.3

 

14.2

 

 

53.4

 

56.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

16.9

 

21.2

 

16.0

 

16.1

 

40.7

 

16.1

 

16.5

 

 

54.1

 

73.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

2.0

 

6.4

 

4.7

 

3.2

 

13.4

 

1.6

 

(1.2

)

 

13.1

 

13.8

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs

 

 

 

1.2

 

1.0

 

1.4

 

0.1

 

1.4

 

 

1.2

 

2.9

 

Operating expenses (1)

 

2.7

 

1.9

 

2.5

 

1.8

 

3.3

 

4.3

 

4.3

 

 

7.1

 

11.9

 

Total expenses

 

$

4.7

 

$

8.3

 

$

8.4

 

$

6.0

 

$

18.1

 

$

6.0

 

$

4.5

 

$

 

$

21.4

 

$

28.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

11.8

%

30.2

%

29.4

%

19.9

%

32.9

%

9.9

%

-7.3

%

 

 

24.2

%

18.8

%

Expense ratio

 

16.0

%

9.0

%

23.1

%

17.3

%

11.5

%

27.3

%

34.5

%

 

 

15.3

%

20.2

%

Combined ratio

 

27.8

%

39.2

%

52.5

%

37.2

%

44.5

%

37.3

%

27.3

%

 

 

39.6

%

39.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

 

$

 

$

1.5

 

$

 

$

 

$

2.9

 

$

 

$

 

$

1.5

 

$

2.9

 

Structured finance

 

20.7

 

15.4

 

36.7

 

21.7

 

7.9

 

11.4

 

7.9

 

 

72.8

 

27.2

 

Total

 

$

20.7

 

$

15.4

 

$

38.2

 

$

21.7

 

$

7.9

 

$

14.4

 

$

7.9

 

$

 

$

74.3

 

$

30.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

 

$

 

$

48

 

$

 

$

 

$

246

 

$

508

 

$

 

$

48

 

$

754

 

Structured finance

 

1,212

 

1,163

 

2,796

 

1,810

 

1,488

 

2,444

 

854

 

 

5,170

 

4,785

 

Total

 

$

1,212

 

$

1,163

 

$

2,844

 

$

1,810

 

$

1,488

 

$

2,691

 

$

1,361

 

$

 

$

5,219

 

$

5,539

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

2,120

 

$

2,381

 

$

2,251

 

$

2,048

 

$

2,112

 

$

2,321

 

$

2,852

 

$

 

$

2,251

 

$

2,852

 

Structured finance

 

17,709

 

18,140

 

20,509

 

20,142

 

21,737

 

23,454

 

23,605

 

 

20,509

 

23,605

 

Total

 

$

19,829

 

$

20,521

 

$

22,760

 

$

22,189

 

$

23,849

 

$

25,775

 

$

26,457

 

$

 

$

22,760

 

$

26,457

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Present value of installment premiums in force

 

$

194.6

 

$

205.4

 

$

221.9

 

$

228.1

 

$

220.6

 

$

219.7

 

$

218.9

 

$

 

$

221.9

 

$

218.9

 

Unearned premium reserve

 

$

12.7

 

$

12.7

 

$

13.5

 

$

12.8

 

$

11.6

 

$

12.8

 

$

12.1

 

$

 

$

13.5

 

$

12.1

 

 


(1)   2Q-04 and YTD 2004 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b) and adjusted book value (c)]

 

6



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-03

 

2Q-03

 

3Q-03

 

4Q-03

 

1Q-04

 

2Q-04

 

3Q-04

 

4Q-04

 

YTD 2003

 

YTD 2004

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a)

 

$

38.6

 

$

27.1

 

$

68.3

 

$

35.4

 

$

78.1

 

$

40.1

 

$

38.9

 

$

 

$

133.9

 

$

157.1

 

less: Present value of installment premiums (a)

 

(15.7

)

(12.2

)

(23.2

)

(7.2

)

(40.0

)

(17.2

)

(14.5

)

 

(51.1

)

(71.7

)

Upfront gross written premiums

 

22.9

 

14.8

 

45.2

 

28.2

 

38.1

 

22.9

 

24.5

 

 

82.8

 

85.4

 

plus: Installment gross written premiums(2)

 

6.9

 

19.2

 

16.2

 

15.3

 

14.3

 

12.9

 

11.1

 

 

42.4

 

38.4

 

Financial guaranty gross written premiums

 

$

29.8

 

$

34.0

 

$

61.4

 

$

43.5

 

$

52.4

 

$

35.8

 

$

35.6

 

$

 

$

125.2

 

$

123.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

29.8

 

$

34.0

 

$

61.4

 

$

43.5

 

$

52.4

 

$

35.8

 

$

35.6

 

$

 

$

125.2

 

$

123.8

 

Net written premiums

 

29.1

 

33.9

 

61.2

 

37.9

 

52.4

 

35.8

 

35.6

 

 

124.2

 

123.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

16.9

 

30.1

 

21.4

 

24.5

 

20.4

 

25.6

 

31.9

 

 

68.4

 

77.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

1.8

 

0.9

 

7.7

 

15.3

 

3.9

 

(0.9

)

10.8

 

 

10.4

 

13.7

 

Profit commission expense

 

0.1

 

0.9

 

 

0.5

 

0.1

 

0.3

 

(0.2

)

 

1.0

 

0.2

 

Acquisition costs

 

5.4

 

11.9

 

8.2

 

8.1

 

7.1

 

6.6

 

12.1

 

 

25.6

 

25.8

 

Operating expenses (3)

 

3.1

 

2.8

 

3.4

 

2.7

 

4.1

 

6.9

 

8.4

 

 

9.3

 

19.4

 

Total expenses

 

$

10.4

 

$

16.5

 

$

19.3

 

$

26.6

 

$

15.2

 

$

12.9

 

$

31.1

 

$

 

$

46.3

 

$

59.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

10.7

%

3.0

%

36.0

%

62.4

%

19.1

%

-3.5

%

33.9

%

0.0

%

15.2

%

17.6

%

Expense ratio

 

50.9

%

51.8

%

54.2

%

46.1

%

55.4

%

53.9

%

63.6

%

0.0

%

52.5

%

58.3

%

Combined ratio

 

61.5

%

54.8

%

90.2

%

108.5

%

74.5

%

50.4

%

97.5

%

0.0

%

67.7

%

75.9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

26.8

 

$

15.8

 

$

57.5

 

$

31.3

 

$

45.8

 

$

31.2

 

$

33.9

 

$

 

$

100.1

 

$

110.9

 

Structured finance

 

11.8

 

11.3

 

10.8

 

4.0

 

32.3

 

8.9

 

5.0

 

 

33.9

 

46.2

 

Total

 

$

38.6

 

$

27.1

 

$

68.3

 

$

35.4

 

$

78.1

 

$

40.1

 

$

38.9

 

$

 

$

133.9

 

$

157.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

1,279

 

$

914

 

$

2,621

 

$

1,906

 

$

1,932

 

$

1,590

 

$

2,262

 

$

 

$

4,814

 

$

5,784

 

Structured finance

 

1,263

 

737

 

888

 

406

 

1,154

 

629

 

507

 

 

2,888

 

2,290

 

Total

 

$

2,542

 

$

1,651

 

$

3,510

 

$

2,312

 

$

3,086

 

$

2,219

 

$

2,769

 

$

 

$

7,703

 

$

8,074

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

47,238

 

$

47,001

 

$

48,499

 

$

50,628

 

$

51,806

 

$

52,061

 

$

52,926

 

$

 

$

48,499

 

$

52,926

 

Structured finance

 

13,089

 

12,976

 

13,083

 

14,706

 

13,935

 

13,514

 

13,084

 

 

13,083

 

13,084

 

Total

 

$

60,327

 

$

59,977

 

$

61,582

 

$

65,334

 

$

65,741

 

$

65,575

 

$

66,010

 

$

 

$

61,582

 

$

66,010

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Present value of installment premiums in force

 

$

101.1

 

$

105.6

 

$

116.4

 

$

117.2

 

$

140.3

 

$

147.2

 

$

138.0

 

 

$

116.4

 

$

138.0

 

Unearned premium reserve

 

$

345.6

 

$

349.0

 

$

388.5

 

$

403.6

 

$

435.5

 

$

445.9

 

$

449.0

 

 

$

388.5

 

$

449.0

 

 


(1)   Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross installment premiums written (PVP), par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

(2)   Installment gross written premiums includes the reclassification of certain deals originally recorded as installment that were discovered during 3Q-04 to be upfront premiums.  As a result, prior period amounts have been restated.  This reclass had an immaterial impact on our QTD and YTD results of operations and financial condition.

 

(3)   2Q-04 and YTD 2004 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b) and adjusted book value (c)]

 

7



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Mortgage Guaranty Segment

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-03

 

2Q-03

 

3Q-03

 

4Q-03

 

1Q-04

 

2Q-04

 

3Q-04

 

4Q-04

 

YTD 2003

 

YTD 2004

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP)(a)

 

$

 

$

 

$

0.6

 

$

 

$

19.2

 

$

 

$

1.1

 

 

$

0.6

 

$

20.3

 

less: Present value of installment premiums(a)

 

 

 

(0.6

)

 

(8.9

)

 

(1.1

)

 

(0.6

)

(10.0

)

Upfront gross written premiums

 

 

 

 

 

10.3

 

 

 

 

 

10.3

 

plus: Installment gross written premiums

 

5.8

 

8.5

 

5.7

 

4.4

 

3.7

 

0.9

 

5.3

 

 

20.0

 

9.9

 

Mortgage guaranty gross written premiums

 

$

5.8

 

$

8.5

 

$

5.7

 

$

4.4

 

$

14.0

 

$

0.9

 

$

5.3

 

 

$

20.0

 

$

20.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

5.8

 

$

8.5

 

$

5.7

 

$

4.4

 

$

14.0

 

$

0.9

 

$

5.3

 

$

 

$

20.0

 

$

20.2

 

Net written premiums

 

6.1

 

8.2

 

5.7

 

4.4

 

14.0

 

0.9

 

5.3

 

 

20.0

 

20.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

6.9

 

9.4

 

5.6

 

5.7

 

8.4

 

15.0

 

5.1

 

 

21.9

 

28.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

1.2

 

3.7

 

(3.9

)

(1.7

)

(1.2

)

(3.3

)

(5.4

)

 

1.0

 

(9.9

)

Profit commission expense

 

3.2

 

1.4

 

1.6

 

1.1

 

5.0

 

4.3

 

1.3

 

 

6.2

 

10.6

 

Acquisition costs

 

1.0

 

1.5

 

1.0

 

0.6

 

0.9

 

1.7

 

0.5

 

 

3.5

 

3.1

 

Operating expenses(1)

 

1.8

 

0.9

 

0.9

 

0.6

 

1.7

 

4.0

 

1.3

 

 

3.6

 

7.0

 

Total expenses

 

$

7.2

 

$

7.5

 

$

(0.4

)

$

0.6

 

$

6.4

 

$

6.7

 

$

(2.3

)

$

 

$

14.3

 

$

10.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

17.4

%

39.4

%

-69.6

%

-29.8

%

-14.3

%

-22.0

%

-105.9

%

 

4.6

%

-34.7

%

Expense ratio

 

87.0

%

40.4

%

62.5

%

40.4

%

90.5

%

66.7

%

60.8

%

 

60.7

%

72.6

%

Combined ratio

 

104.3

%

79.8

%

-7.1

%

10.6

%

76.2

%

44.7

%

-45.1

%

 

65.3

%

37.9

%

 


(1)   2Q-04 and YTD 2004 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b) and adjusted book value (c)]

 

8



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Other Segment

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-03

 

2Q-03

 

3Q-03

 

4Q-03

 

1Q-04

 

2Q-04

 

3Q-04

 

4Q-04

 

YTD 2003

 

YTD 2004

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

60.9

 

$

18.3

 

$

26.0

 

$

(20.2

)

$

(93.6

)

$

10.0

 

$

5.2

 

 

$

105.1

 

$

(78.4

)

Net written premiums

 

53.1

 

56.3

 

26.0

 

99.6

 

(98.5

)

(83.9

)

 

 

135.4

 

(182.5

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

22.9

 

21.4

 

35.2

 

40.7

 

17.2

 

(66.0

)

 

 

79.5

 

(48.9

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

18.2

 

24.8

 

24.4

 

35.9

 

7.5

 

(57.4

)

 

 

67.4

 

(49.8

)

Profit commission expense

 

(0.3

)

0.4

 

0.3

 

0.7

 

0.4

 

0.2

 

 

 

0.3

 

0.6

 

Acquisition costs

 

5.4

 

6.0

 

7.5

 

6.1

 

3.6

 

 

 

 

18.8

 

3.8

 

Operating expenses(1)

 

4.1

 

1.9

 

5.5

 

4.4

 

3.5

 

 

 

 

11.6

 

3.6

 

Total expenses

 

$

27.4

 

$

33.1

 

$

37.7

 

$

47.1

 

$

15.0

 

$

(57.2

)

$

 

 

$

98.1

 

$

(41.8

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

79.5

%

115.9

%

69.3

%

88.2

%

43.6

%

87.0

%

0.0

%

 

84.8

%

101.8

%

Expense ratio

 

40.2

%

38.8

%

37.8

%

27.5

%

43.6

%

-0.3

%

0.0

%

 

38.6

%

-16.4

%

Combined ratio

 

119.7

%

154.7

%

107.1

%

115.7

%

87.2

%

86.7

%

0.0

%

 

 

123.4

%

85.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity layer credit protection

 

$

12.6

 

$

7.6

 

$

19.5

 

$

22.1

 

$

5.4

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

39.7

 

$

5.4

 

Trade credit reinsurance

 

10.7

 

14.3

 

11.6

 

14.6

 

9.3

 

(34.6

)

 

 

 

36.6

 

(25.3

)

Title reinsurance

 

1.2

 

1.2

 

4.6

 

3.7

 

2.4

 

0.8

 

 

 

7.0

 

3.2

 

Life accident and health reinsurance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Auto residual value reinsurance

 

0.7

 

0.7

 

0.7

 

2.1

 

 

(32.2

)

 

 

2.1

 

(32.2

)

Affiliate reinsurance

 

(2.8

)

(2.4

)

(1.2

)

(1.3

)

 

 

 

 

(5.9

)

 

Total net earned premiums

 

$

22.4

 

$

21.4

 

$

35.2

 

$

41.2

 

$

17.1

 

$

(66.0

)

$

 

$

 

$

79.5

 

$

(48.9

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)(1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity layer credit protection

 

$

1.1

 

$

(5.7

)

$

(15.2

)

$

18.8

 

$

2.2

 

$

0.5

 

$

 

$

 

$

(19.8

)

$

2.7

 

Trade credit reinsurance

 

(1.4

)

(4.0

)

(0.1

)

2.2

 

1.3

 

(4.2

)

 

 

 

(5.5

)

(2.9

)

Title reinsurance

 

1.0

 

0.8

 

2.9

 

2.1

 

0.7

 

0.3

 

 

 

4.7

 

1.0

 

Life accident and health reinsurance

 

(0.5

)

 

(0.1

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

(0.6

)

 

Auto residual value reinsurance

 

(2.5

)

(1.9

)

0.1

 

(20.2

)

(2.5

)

(5.4

)

 

 

(4.3

)

(7.9

)

Affiliate reinsurance

 

(2.7

)

(0.9

)

9.9

 

1.1

 

 

 

 

 

6.9

 

 

Total underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

(5.0

)

$

(11.7

)

$

(2.5

)

$

4.0

 

$

1.7

 

$

(8.8

)

$

 

$

 

$

(18.6

)

$

(7.1

)

 


(1)   2Q-04 and YTD 2004 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.

 

9



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Loss and LAE Reserves by Segment, Type of Reserve and by Segment and Type of Reserve

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of :

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and LAE Reserves By Segment:

 

September 30,
2004

 

 

 

December 31,
2003

 

 

 

 

 

Financial guaranty direct

 

$

19.9

 

 

 

$

29.9

 

 

 

 

 

Financial guaranty reinsurance

 

78.8

 

 

 

72.8

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage guaranty

 

13.3

 

 

 

24.1

 

 

 

 

 

Other

 

185.4

 

 

 

395.8

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

297.4

 

 

 

$

522.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of :

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and LAE Reserves By Type:

 

September 30,

2004

 

 

 

December 31,
2003

  

 

 

 

 

 

Case basis

 

$

57.3

 

 

 

$

128.9

 

 

 

 

 

IBNR

 

174.1

 

 

 

319.0

 

 

 

 

 

Portfolio

 

66.0

 

 

 

74.7

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

297.4

 

 

 

$

522.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of September 30, 2004

 

By Segment and Type of Loss and LAE Reserve:

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Mortgage
Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

 

 

Case basis

 

$

 4.9

 

$

 29.5

 

$

 1.1

 

$

 21.8

 

$

 57.3

 

IBNR

 

 

 

10.5

 

163.6

 

174.1

 

Portfolio

 

15.0

 

49.3

 

1.7

 

 

66.0

 

Total

 

$

 19.9

 

$

 78.8

 

$

 13.3

 

$

 185.4

 

$

 297.4

 

 

By Segment and Type of Loss and LAE Reserve:

 

As of December 31, 2003

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Mortgage
Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Case basis

 

$

2.0

 

$

35.3

 

$

1.8

 

$

 89.8

 

$

128.9

 

IBNR

 

 

 

13.1

 

305.9

 

319.0

 

Portfolio

 

27.9

 

37.5

 

9.2

 

 

74.7

 

Total

 

$

29.9

 

$

72.8

 

$

24.1

 

$

395.8

 

$

522.6

 

 

10



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Fixed Income Investment Portfolio

as of September 30, 2004

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Amortized
Cost

 

Fair Value

 

Pre-Tax
Book
Yield

 

Duration

 

Annualized
Investment
Income

 

Fixed maturity securities available for sale:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies

 

$

249.1

 

$

261.9

 

5.1

%

5.2

 

 

12.7

 

Foreign government securities

 

14.6

 

14.7

 

5.1

%

3.0

 

0.7

 

Obligations of states and political subdivisions

 

329.7

 

348.7

 

4.5

%

7.4

 

14.9

 

Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions

 

468.9

 

508.9

 

5.0

%

7.4

 

23.3

 

Corporate securities

 

161.0

 

171.3

 

5.9

%

5.4

 

9.5

 

Mortgage-backed securities:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pass-thrus

 

438.6

 

424.3

 

5.1

%

3.8

 

22.4

 

PACs

 

118.1

 

143.5

 

5.0

%

3.2

 

5.4

 

Asset-backed securities

 

73.8

 

75.3

 

5.5

%

2.5

 

4.0

 

Total fixed maturity securities available for sale

 

1,853.7

 

1,948.7

 

5.0

%

5.6

 

93.0

 

Short-term investments

 

164.3

 

164.3

 

1.4

%

 

2.3

 

Total investments available for sale

 

2,018.0

 

2,113.0

 

4.7

%

5.2

 

95.3

 

 

 

 

Fair Value

 

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maturity Schedule:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Due within one year

 

$

23.5

 

1.2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Due in one to five years

 

165.9

 

8.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Due in five to ten years

 

334.5

 

17.2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Due in greater than ten years

 

857.1

 

44.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage-backed securities

 

567.9

 

29.1

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

1,948.7

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fair Value

 

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quality Distribution:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Treasury

 

$

35.3

 

1.8

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agency

 

226.6

 

11.6

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

AAA

 

1,254.8

 

64.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

AA

 

304.5

 

15.6

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

A

 

125.5

 

6.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

BBB

 

2.0

 

0.1

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

1,948.7

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile

(dollars in millions)

 

Sector

 

 

 

As of September 30, 2004:

 

Gross Par Written

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Avg. Rating (8)

 

3Q 2004

 

3Q 2003

Public Finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation bonds

 

$

797

 

$

223

 

$

12,796

 

13.8

%

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

422

 

863

 

11,000

 

11.9

%

A+

 

Tax backed

 

691

 

405

 

9,953

 

10.8

%

A+

 

Transportation

 

70

 

644

 

6,874

 

7.4

%

A

 

Healthcare

 

360

 

159

 

6,448

 

7.0

%

A

 

Structured municipal (1)

 

 

 

3,266

 

3.5

%

AAA

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

338

 

149

 

2,266

 

2.5

%

A-

 

Housing

 

25

 

84

 

1,156

 

1.3

%

AA-

 

Other public finance (2)

 

11

 

124

 

1,043

 

1.1

%

A-

 

Higher education

 

56

 

19

 

976

 

1.1

%

A+

 

Total public finance

 

$

2,770

 

$

2,669

 

$

55,778

 

60.3

%

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Structured Finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDO’s (3)

 

$

221

 

$

2,269

 

$

16,535

 

17.9

%

AA+

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

692

 

380

 

7,127

 

7.7

%

AA-

 

Commercial receivables (4)

 

264

 

722

 

5,599

 

6.1

%

AA-

 

Consumer receivables (5)

 

104

 

204

 

3,744

 

4.0

%

BBB+

 

Other structured finance (6)

 

80

 

89

 

1,903

 

2.1

%

AA-

 

Single name corporate CDS (7)

 

 

20

 

1,779

 

1.9

%

AA-

 

Total structured finance

 

$

1,360

 

$

3,684

 

$

36,689

 

39.7

%

AA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposure

 

$

4,130

 

$

6,354

 

$

92,467

 

100.0

%

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage guaranty risk in force

 

$

136

 

$

6

 

$

2,437

 

NA

 

NA

 

 


(1)     Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

(2)     Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

(3)     Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

(4)     Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

(5)     Single name corporate credit default swaps (CDS) includes CDS of investor-owned utilities.

(6)     Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

(7)     Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.

(8)     Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.

 

12



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile - Page 2

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 

Ratings (1)

 

September 30, 2004
Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

December 31, 2003
Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

26,999

 

29.2

%

$

26,374

 

30.1

%

AA/Aa

 

19,036

 

20.6

%

17,587

 

20.1

%

A/A

 

31,871

 

34.5

%

30,008

 

34.3

%

BBB/Baa

 

12,973

 

14.0

%

12,051

 

13.8

%

Below investment grade

 

1,587

 

1.7

%

1,505

 

1.7

%

 

 

$

92,467

 

100

%

$

87,524

 

100

%

 

Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 

U.S.:

 

September 30, 2004
Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

California

 

$

7,323

 

7.9

%

New York

 

5,526

 

6.0

%

Texas

 

3,241

 

3.5

%

Illinois

 

2,957

 

3.2

%

Florida

 

2,770

 

3.0

%

New Jersey

 

2,360

 

2.6

%

Pennsylvania

 

2,012

 

2.2

%

Massachusetts

 

1,810

 

2.0

%

Puerto Rico

 

1,776

 

1.9

%

Washington

 

1,619

 

1.8

%

Other - Muni

 

20,340

 

22.0

%

Other - Non Muni

 

32,521

 

35.2

%

Total U.S.

 

$

84,256

 

91.1

%

 

International:

 

September 30, 2004
Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

United Kingdom

 

$

5,348

 

5.8

%

Australia

 

538

 

0.6

%

Brazil

 

363

 

0.4

%

France

 

283

 

0.3

%

Italy

 

280

 

0.3

%

Other

 

1,398

 

1.5

%

Total International

 

$

8,211

 

8.9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

92,467

 

100.0

%

 

Distribution by Ratings of CDO and Credit Derivative Exposure

 

Ratings (1)

 

September 30, 2004
Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

December 31, 2003
Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

19,792

 

73.9

%

$

20,703

 

76.1

%

AA/Aa

 

2,929

 

10.9

%

2,534

 

9.3

%

A/A

 

2,890

 

10.8

%

2,575

 

9.5

%

BBB/Baa

 

1,057

 

3.9

%

1,216

 

4.5

%

Below investment grade

 

108

 

0.4

%

158

 

0.6

%

 

 

$

26,776

 

100

%

$

27,187

 

100

%

 


(1)   Assured Guaranty internal rating

 

13



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Non-Investment Grade Exposure

(dollars in millions)

 

Asset Type

 

Weighted Average
Remaining life

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Average
Rating (8)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public Finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Transportation

 

20.3

 

$

374.4

 

BB-

 

Healthcare

 

13.5

 

103.2

 

BB

 

General obligation bonds

 

12.1

 

69.1

 

BB

 

Other public finance (1)

 

27.1

 

44.1

 

BB-

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

17.7

 

15.7

 

BB-

 

Municipal utilities

 

11.6

 

14.7

 

C

 

Tax backed

 

10.8

 

8.4

 

BB-

 

Housing

 

8.8

 

3.7

 

B

 

Higher education

 

12.3

 

1.0

 

B

 

Structured municipal (2)

 

0

 

0

 

 

 

Total public finance

 

18.5

 

$

634.4

 

BB-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Structured Finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer receivables (3)

 

3.1

 

$

525.9

 

BB

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

9.1

 

186.1

 

B-

 

Commercial receivables (4)

 

7.8

 

132.7

 

B

 

CDO’s (5)

 

3.5

 

107.6

 

B-

 

Other structured finance (6)

 

1.4

 

0.7

 

C

 

Single name corporate CDS (7)

 

 

 

 

 

Total structured finance

 

5.0

 

$

953.0

 

BB-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposure

 

10.3

 

$

1,587.3

 

BB-

 

 


(1)     Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

(2)     Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

(3)     Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

(4)     Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

(5)     Single name corporate credit default swaps (CDS) includes CDS of investor-owned utilities.

(6)     Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

(7)     Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.

(8)     Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.

 

14



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

25 Largest Public Finance Exposures

as of September 30, 2004

(dollars in millions)

 

Revenue Source

 

Net Par
Outstanding(1)

 

Rating(2)

 

California State General Obligation & Leases

 

$

890

 

A-

 

New Jersey State General Obligation & Leases

 

760

 

AA-

 

Long Island Power Authority

 

722

 

A-

 

Denver Colorado Airport System

 

632

 

A

 

Jefferson County Alabama Sewer

 

606

 

A

 

Chicago Illinois General Obligation

 

589

 

A+

 

New York City General Obligation & Leases

 

566

 

A

 

Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority

 

544

 

A-

 

New York State Metro Trans Auth

 

535

 

A

 

New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority

 

524

 

AA+

 

San Francisco California Airport

 

481

 

A

 

Energy Northwest

 

480

 

AA-

 

Massachusetts State General Obligation & Bay Transportation

 

480

 

AA-

 

Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases

 

464

 

A-

 

Houston Texas Water & Sewer System

 

457

 

A+

 

New York State General Obligation

 

427

 

AA

 

Mental Health Services Facilities - New York

 

373

 

AA-

 

Los Angeles County Metro Trans

 

356

 

AA

 

Chicago Illinois Public Building - Board of Education

 

350

 

A+

 

Santee Cooper Revenue Bonds - South Carolina

 

345

 

AA-

 

Dade County Florida Water & Sewer System

 

324

 

A

 

Illinois State General Obligation

 

303

 

AA

 

Puerto Rico Government Development Bank

 

300

 

A+

 

Los Angeles County California Pension Obligation

 

273

 

A

 

Chicago O’Hare International Airport

 

271

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Top 25 Public Finance Exposures

 

$

12,051

 

 

 

 


(1)     Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company

(2)     Assured Guaranty internal rating

 

15



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

25 Largest Structured Finance Exposures

as of September 30, 2004

(dollars in millions)

 

Revenue Source

 

Net Par
Outstanding(1)

 

Rating(2)

 

Structured Finance Corporate Pool

 

$

884

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

740

 

AAA

 

Argent Securities Inc. 2003-W6

 

628

 

BBB+

 

Synthetic CDO - IG ABS

 

594

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG ABS

 

575

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

563

 

A+

 

Synthetic Credit Card Master Trust

 

550

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

500

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

470

 

AA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

440

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

440

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

430

 

AAA

 

Providian Gateway Master Trust

 

416

 

BB+

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

410

 

AAA

 

Private Sub-Prime RMBS

 

361

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

360

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

360

 

AAA

 

Private Automobile Lease Securitization

 

350

 

BBB

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

347

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

300

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

291

 

BBB+

 

Synthetic CDO - IG CDO

 

281

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

278

 

AAA

 

Metris Master Credit Card Trust

 

276

 

BB

 

Private Residential Mortgage Backed Securities

 

276

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Top 25 Structured Finance Exposures

 

$

11,119

 

 

 

 


(1)     Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company

(2)     Assured Guaranty internal rating

 

16



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Single Name Corporate/Sovereign CDS Exposures

as of September 30, 2004

(dollars in millions)

 

Obligor

 

Net Par
Outstanding(1)

 

Rating(2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General Electric Capital Corp.

 

$

60

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Allianz AG

 

50

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Japan Republic Sovereign Obligation

 

50

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

American International Group

 

50

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fannie Mae

 

45

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

France Telecom

 

40

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Citigroup Inc.

 

39

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oesterreichische Elektrizitaertswirtschafts AG

 

36

 

A

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zurich Insurance Company

 

35

 

A

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ABN Amro Bank NV

 

30

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Top 10 Single Name/Sovereign CDS Exposures

 

$

435

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Single Name Corporate and Sovereign by Rating

 

3Q-04

 

Gross
Par Written
3Q-03

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

 

$

 

509

 

 

 

 

 

AA/Aa

 

 

 

229

 

 

 

 

 

A/A

 

 

10

 

862

 

 

 

 

 

BBB/Baa

 

 

10

 

179

 

 

 

 

 

Below investment grade

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

 

$

20

 

$

1,779

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Par Outstanding

 

Single Name Corporate and Sovereign CDS Run-off

 

2004(3)

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

Beginning par outstanding

 

$

1,779

 

$

1,684

 

$

696

 

$

510

 

$

279

 

Scheduled runoff amount

 

95

 

988

 

186

 

231

 

155

 

Ending par outstanding

 

$

1,684

 

$

696

 

$

510

 

$

279

 

$

124

 

 


(1)     Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company

(2)     Assured Guaranty internal rating

(3)     Beginning balance as of October 1, 2004

 

17



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Capital & Claims Paying Resources

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of September 30, 2004

 

As of December 31, 2003

 

 

 

AGC

 

AGR (1)

 

Consolidated

 

AGC

 

AGR (1)

 

Consolidated

 

Statutory surplus and reserves

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve (2)

 

$

418

 

$

161

 

$

579

 

$

467

 

$

233

 

$

699

 

Contingency reserve

 

456

 

 

456

 

400

 

 

400

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

274

 

612

 

886

 

256

 

560

 

816

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves

 

32

 

182

 

214

 

55

 

390

 

445

 

Total policyholders’ surplus & reserve

 

$

1,180

 

$

955

 

$

2,135

 

$

1,178

 

$

1,183

 

$

2,360

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Claims paying resources

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

$

274

 

$

612

 

$

886

 

$

256

 

$

560

 

$

816

 

Contingency reserve

 

456

 

 

456

 

400

 

 

400

 

Statutory capital

 

730

 

612

 

1,342

 

$

656

 

$

560

 

$

1,216

 

Unearned premium reserve (2)

 

418

 

161

 

579

 

467

 

233

 

699

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves

 

32

 

182

 

214

 

55

 

390

 

445

 

Total policyholders’ reserves

 

450

 

343

 

793

 

$

522

 

$

623

 

$

1,144

 

Present value of installment premium

 

279

 

112

 

391

 

293

 

90

 

383

 

Standby line of credit/stop loss

 

255

 

 

255

 

255

 

 

255

 

Total claims paying resources

 

$

1,714

 

$

1,067

 

$

2,781

 

$

1,726

 

$

1,273

 

$

2,998

 

 


(1)     AGR numbers are our estimate of US statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements

 

(2)     Unearned premium reserve for AGR is GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

18



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Summary Financial and Statistical Data

(dollars in millions except share amounts)

 

 

 

9/30/04

 

2003

 

2002

 

2001

 

2000

 

GAAP Summary Income Statement Data

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross premiums written

 

$

125.1

 

$

349.2

 

$

417.2

 

$

442.9

 

$

206.0

 

Net earned premiums

 

130.7

 

310.9

 

247.4

 

293.5

 

140.7

 

Net investment income

 

71.0

 

96.3

 

97.2

 

99.5

 

98.1

 

Total expenses

 

76.9

 

266.1

 

218.8

 

282.8

 

131.8

 

Income before income taxes

 

125.4

 

246.2

 

83.2

 

110.1

 

118.1

 

Net income

 

134.8

 

214.5

 

72.6

 

63.8

 

93.2

 

Operating income

 

105.5

 

127.3

 

115.7

 

96.1

 

87.6

 

Net income per diluted common share

 

1.80

 

2.9

 

0.97

 

0.85

 

1.24

 

Operating income per diluted common share

 

1.41

 

1.70

 

1.54

 

1.28

 

1.17

 

GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total investments and cash

 

$

2,126.4

 

$

2,222.1

 

$

2,061.9

 

$

1,710.8

 

$

1,549.6

 

Total assets

 

2,716.7

 

2,857.9

 

2,719.9

 

2,322.1

 

1,913.7

 

Unearned premium reserve

 

522.4

 

625.4

 

613.3

 

500.3

 

444.6

 

Loss and LAE reserves

 

297.4

 

522.6

 

458.8

 

401.1

 

171.0

 

Long-term debt

 

197.3

 

75.0

 

75.0

 

150.0

 

150.0

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

1,487.9

 

1,437.6

 

1,257.2

 

1,061.6

 

994.5

 

Book value per share

 

19.58

 

19.17

 

16.76

 

14.15

 

13.26

 

Assured Guaranty Corp. Statutory Data

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

70.7

 

$

66.6

 

$

46.2

 

$

44.9

 

$

60.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

274.4

 

255.6

 

287.0

 

334.0

 

323.4

 

Contingency reserve

 

455.6

 

400.0

 

307.0

 

223.1

 

180.6

 

Statutory capital

 

730.0

 

655.6

 

594.0

 

557.2

 

504.0

 

Unearned premium reserve

 

418.0

 

466.7

 

369.9

 

351.5

 

330.2

 

Present value of installment premiums

 

279.0

 

293.3

 

220.4

 

149.2

 

89.1

 

Premium resources

 

697.0

 

760.0

 

590.3

 

500.7

 

419.3

 

Loss and LAE reserves

 

31.5

 

55.0

 

42.4

 

18.2

 

16.0

 

Standby line of credit / stop loss

 

255.0

 

255.0

 

415.0

 

450.0

 

250.0

 

Total claims-paying resources

 

$

1,713.5

 

$

1,725.6

 

$

1,641.6

 

$

1,526.1

 

$

1,189.3

 

Financial Ratios

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated GAAP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

 

-24.6

%

46.5

%

48.6

%

60.5

%

21.6

%

Expense ratio

 

68.1

%

37.2

%

35.5

%

30.6

%

61.2

%

Combined ratio

 

43.5

%

83.7

%

84.1

%

91.1

%

82.8

%

Assured Guaranty Corp. Statutory

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

 

-14.8

%

25.9

%

35.4

%

18.3

%

-0.7

%

Expense ratio

 

124.3

%

31.5

%

44.8

%

50.2

%

45.8

%

Combined ratio

 

109.5

%

57.4

%

80.2

%

68.5

%

45.1

%

Other Financial Information

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net debt service outstanding

 

$

134,050

 

$

130,047

 

$

124,082

 

$

117,909

 

$

102,744

 

Net par amount outstanding

 

92,467

 

87,524

 

80,394

 

75,249

 

65,756

 

 

19



 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended
September 30

 

% Change
versus
3Q-03

 

Nine Months Ended
September 30

 

% Change
versus
YTD 2003

 

 

 

2004

 

2003

 

 

2004

 

2003

 

 

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

38.8

 

$

56.5

 

-31

%

$

131.8

 

$

170.9

 

-23

%

Net written premiums

 

3.1

 

55.8

 

-94

%

43.0

 

207.7

 

-79

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

$

39.7

 

$

43.9

 

-10

%

$

83.8

 

$

130.4

 

-36

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net investment income

 

13.1

 

12.0

 

9

%

38.9

 

34.8

 

12

%

Other income

 

 

0.3

 

-100

%

 

1.0

 

-100

%

Total revenues

 

$

52.8

 

$

56.2

 

-6

%

$

122.7

 

$

166.2

 

-26

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

12.1

 

14.3

 

-15

%

(1.4

)

37.2

 

-104

%

Profit commission expenses

 

 

0.2

 

-100

%

0.2

 

1.1

 

-82

%

Acquisition costs

 

12.7

 

11.8

 

8

%

25.3

 

38.1

 

-34

%

Other operating expenses

 

6.9

 

5.2

 

33

%

29.8

 

14.6

 

104

%

Goodwill impairment

 

 

 

 

1.6

 

 

 

Total expenses

 

$

31.7

 

$

31.5

 

1

%

$

55.5

 

$

91.0

 

-39

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income before provision for income taxes

 

21.1

 

24.7

 

-15

%

67.2

 

75.2

 

-11

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total provision for income taxes

 

4.7

 

6.4

 

-27

%

16.4

 

19.5

 

-16

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

16.4

 

$

18.3

 

-10

%

$

50.8

 

$

55.7

 

-9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After-tax net realized gains on investments

 

0.4

 

 

 

0.3

 

1.4

 

-79

%

After-tax unrealized gains on derivative instruments

 

4.5

 

3.3

 

36

%

22.0

 

11.6

 

90

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

21.3

 

$

21.6

 

-1

%

$

73.1

 

$

68.7

 

6

%

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

20



 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of

 

 

 

September 30,
2004

 

December 31,
2003

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assets

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed maturity securities available for sale, at fair value

 

$

1,162.2

 

$

1,126.7

 

Short-term investments, at cost, which approximates market

 

47.1

 

55.1

 

Total investments

 

1,209.3

 

1,181.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash

 

3.1

 

18.0

 

Accrued investment income

 

15.2

 

14.0

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

146.8

 

146.9

 

Premium receivable

 

63.8

 

31.5

 

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

45.1

 

7.3

 

Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses

 

30.9

 

 

Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments

 

15.4

 

 

Funds held under reinsurance contracts

 

2.1

 

1.8

 

Goodwill

 

85.4

 

87.1

 

Other assets

 

8.4

 

13.2

 

Total assets

 

$

1,625.5

 

$

1,501.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve

 

$

386.1

 

$

389.0

 

Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

117.6

 

106.3

 

Profit commissions payable

 

4.1

 

4.0

 

Reinsurance balances payable

 

61.4

 

10.2

 

Deferred federal income taxes payable

 

31.7

 

77.9

 

Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments

 

 

18.5

 

Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts

 

6.8

 

5.1

 

Other liabilities

 

39.0

 

13.9

 

Total liabilities

 

646.6

 

624.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholder’s equity

 

 

 

 

 

Common stock

 

15.0

 

15.0

 

Additional paid-in capital

 

386.4

 

351.2

 

Accumulated other comprehensive income

 

42.3

 

45.3

 

Unearned stock grant compensation

 

(6.0

)

(2.8

)

Retained earnings

 

541.2

 

468.1

 

Total shareholder’s equity

 

978.9

 

876.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total liabilities and shareholder’s equity

 

$

1,625.5

 

$

1,501.6

 

 

 

21



 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

Fixed Income Investment Portfolio

as of September 30, 2004

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Amortized
Cost

 

Fair Value

 

Pre-Tax
Book
Yield

 

Duration

 

Annualized
Investment
Income

 

Fixed maturity securities available for sale:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies

 

52.3

 

53.6

 

4.0

%

2.8

 

2.1

 

Foreign government securities

 

14.6

 

14.7

 

5.1

%

3.0

 

0.7

 

Obligations of states and political subdivisions

 

318.8

 

337.2

 

4.5

%

7.2

 

14.3

 

Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions

 

435.9

 

475.0

 

5.0

%

7.4

 

21.9

 

Corporate securities

 

71.5

 

74.9

 

5.1

%

4.8

 

3.7

 

Mortgage-backed securities:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pass-thrus

 

186.0

 

189.1

 

4.8

%

3.1

 

8.9

 

PACs

 

8.5

 

8.5

 

3.7

%

3.0

 

0.3

 

Asset-backed securities

 

15.9

 

16.4

 

3.8

%

2.2

 

0.6

 

Total fixed maturity securities available for sale

 

1,103.5

 

1,169.2

 

4.8

%

6.1

 

52.6

 

Short-term investments

 

73.5

 

73.5

 

1.2

%

0.1

 

0.9

 

Total investments available for sale

 

1,177.0

 

1,242.8

 

4.6

%

5.8

 

53.5

 

 

 

 

Fair Value

 

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maturity Schedule:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Due within one year

 

14.2

 

1.2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Due in one to five years

 

120.7

 

10.3

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Due in five to ten years

 

210.4

 

18.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Due in greater than ten years

 

626.5

 

53.6

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage-backed securities

 

197.5

 

16.9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

1,169.2

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fair Value

 

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quality Distribution:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Treasury

 

13.8

 

1.2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agency

 

39.8

 

3.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

AAA

 

830.0

 

71.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

AA

 

202.1

 

17.3

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

A

 

83.5

 

7.1

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

BBB

 

 

0.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

1,169.2

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

22



 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

Financial Guaranty Profile

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of September 30, 2004:

 

Sector

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Avg. Rating (8)

 

Public Finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation bonds

 

$

10,183

 

13.6

%

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

8,816

 

11.8

%

A+

 

Tax backed

 

8,479

 

11.3

%

A+

 

Transportation

 

5,902

 

7.9

%

A

 

Healthcare

 

3,950

 

5.3

%

A

 

Structured municipal (1)

 

2,414

 

3.2

%

AAA

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

1,858

 

2.5

%

A-

 

Housing

 

992

 

1.3

%

AA-

 

Other public finance (2)

 

870

 

1.2

%

A-

 

Higher education

 

844

 

1.1

%

A+

 

Total public finance

 

$

44,309

 

59.3

%

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Structured Finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDO’s (3)

 

$

14,295

 

19.1

%

AA+

 

Mortgage-backed & home equity

 

6,076

 

8.1

%

AA-

 

Commercial receivables (4)

 

5,066

 

6.8

%

AA-

 

Consumer receivables (5)

 

3,417

 

4.6

%

A-

 

Other structured finance (6)

 

1,578

 

2.1

%

AA

 

Single name corporate CDS (7)

 

 

0.0

%

 

Total structured finance

 

$

30,432

 

40.7

%

AA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total net par outstanding

 

$

74,740

 

100.0

%

A+

 

 


(1)   Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

 

(2)   Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

 

(3)   Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

 

(4)   Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

 

(5)   Single name corporate credit default swaps (CDS) includes CDS of investor-owned utilities.

 

(6)   Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

 

(7)   Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.

 

(8)   Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.

 

23



 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

Financial Guaranty Profile

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 

Ratings (1)

 

September 30, 2004
Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

December 31, 2003
Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

21,619

 

28.9

%

$

22,268

 

28.4

%

AA/Aa

 

16,002

 

21.4

%

16,211

 

20.7

%

A/A

 

24,989

 

33.4

%

27,208

 

34.7

%

BBB/Baa

 

10,581

 

14.2

%

11,258

 

14.4

%

Below investment grade

 

1,549

 

2.1

%

1,454

 

1.9

%

 

 

$

74,740

 

100

%

$

78,399

 

100

%

 

Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio, as of September 30, 2004

 

U.S.:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

California

 

$

6,021

 

8.1

%

New York

 

4,337

 

5.8

%

Texas

 

2,614

 

3.5

%

Illinois

 

2,517

 

3.4

%

Florida

 

2,289

 

3.1

%

New Jersey

 

1,914

 

2.6

%

Pennsylvania

 

1,714

 

2.3

%

Massachusetts

 

1,547

 

2.1

%

Puerto Rico

 

1,428

 

1.9

%

Washington

 

1,254

 

1.7

%

Other - Muni

 

15,514

 

20.8

%

Other - Non Muni

 

27,650

 

37.0

%

Total U.S.

 

$

68,799

 

92.1

%

 

International:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

United Kingdom

 

$

4,290

 

5.7

%

Australia

 

446

 

0.6

%

Brazil

 

329

 

0.4

%

Italy

 

231

 

0.3

%

Canada

 

203

 

0.3

%

Other

 

441

 

0.6

%

Total International

 

$

5,941

 

7.9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

74,740

 

100.0

%

 

Distribution by Ratings of CDO and Credit Derivative Exposure

 

 

 

September 30, 2004

 

 

 

December 31, 2003

 

 

 

Ratings (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

15,552

 

76.8

%

$

17,584

 

74.9

%

AA/Aa

 

2,539

 

12.5

%

2,342

 

10.0

%

A/A

 

1,468

 

7.2

%

2,420

 

10.3

%

BBB/Baa

 

608

 

3.0

%

1,011

 

4.3

%

Below investment grade

 

91

 

0.4

%

135

 

0.6

%

 

 

$

20,258

 

100

%

$

23,491

 

100

%

 


(1)   Assured Guaranty internal rating

 

24



 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

Non-Investment Grade Exposure

(dollars in millions)

 

Asset Type

 

Weighted Average
Remaining life

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Average
Rating (8)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public Finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Transportation

 

20.3

 

374.4

 

BB-

 

Healthcare

 

13.5

 

103.2

 

BB

 

General obligation bonds

 

12.2

 

$

47.4

 

BB

 

Other public finance (1)

 

27.1

 

44.1

 

BB-

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

17.7

 

15.7

 

BB-

 

Municipal utilities

 

11.6

 

14.7

 

C

 

Tax backed

 

10.8

 

8.4

 

BB-

 

Housing

 

8.8

 

3.7

 

B

 

Higher education

 

12.3

 

1.0

 

B

 

Structured municipal (2)

 

 

 

 

Total Public finance

 

18.5

 

612.7

 

BB-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Structured Finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer receivables (3)

 

3.1

 

525.9

 

BB

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

9.1

 

185.9

 

B-

 

Commercial receivables (4)

 

7.8

 

132.7

 

B

 

CDO’s (5)

 

3.8

 

$

91.0

 

B-

 

Other structured finance (6)

 

1.4

 

0.7

 

C

 

Single name corporate CDS (7)

 

 

 

 

Total structured finance

 

5.0

 

936.2

 

BB-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposure

 

10.3

 

$

1,548.8

 

BB-

 

 


(1)   Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

 

(2)   Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

 

(3)   Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

 

(4)   Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

 

(5)   Single name corporate credit default swaps (CDS) includes CDS of investor-owned utilities.

 

(6)   Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

 

(7)   Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.

 

(8)   Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.

 

25



 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

25 Largest Public Finance Exposures

as of September 30, 2004

(dollars in millions)

 

Revenue Source

 

Net Par
Outstanding(1)

 

Rating(2)

 

New Jersey State General Obligation & Leases

 

$

702

 

AA-

 

California State General Obligation & Leases

 

641

 

A-

 

New York State Metro Trans Auth

 

476

 

A

 

Chicago Illinois General Obligation

 

475

 

A+

 

Denver Colorado Airport System

 

472

 

A

 

Long Island Power Authority

 

467

 

A-

 

Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases

 

464

 

A-

 

Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority

 

464

 

A-

 

Jefferson County Alabama Sewer

 

448

 

A

 

Massachusetts State General Obligation & Bay Transportation

 

445

 

AA-

 

San Francisco California Airport

 

425

 

A

 

Energy Northwest

 

411

 

AA-

 

New York State General Obligation

 

392

 

AA

 

New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority

 

387

 

AA+

 

New York City General Obligation

 

360

 

A

 

Los Angeles County Metro Trans

 

314

 

AA

 

Houston Texas Water & Sewer System

 

305

 

A+

 

Illinois State General Obligation & Leases

 

296

 

AA

 

Chicago Illinois Public Building - Board Of Education

 

292

 

A+

 

Santee Cooper Revenue Bonds - South Carolina

 

270

 

AA-

 

Massachusetts State Turnpike Authority Metro

 

267

 

A-

 

Dade County Florida Water & Sewer System

 

261

 

A

 

Intermountain Power Agency

 

243

 

A+

 

Pennsylvania State General Obligation

 

236

 

AA

 

Los Angeles California Unified School District

 

235

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Top 25 Public Finance Exposures

 

$

9,747

 

 

 

 


(1)   Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company

(2)   Assured Guaranty internal rating

 

26



 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

25 Largest Structured Finance Exposures

as of September 30, 2004

(dollars in millions)

 

Revenue Source

 

Net Par
Outstanding(1)

 

Rating(2)

 

Structured Finance Corporate Pool

 

$

884

 

AAA

 

Argent Securities Inc. 2003-W6

 

628

 

BBB+

 

Synthetic CDO - IG ABS

 

594

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG ABS

 

575

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

563

 

A+

 

Synthetic Credit Card Master Trust

 

550

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

540

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

500

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

470

 

AA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

440

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

430

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

417

 

AAA

 

Private Sub-Prime RMBS

 

361

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

360

 

AAA

 

Providian Gateway Master Trust

 

360

 

BB+

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

350

 

AAA

 

Private Automobile Lease Securitization

 

350

 

BBB

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

347

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

344

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

300

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

291

 

BBB+

 

Synthetic CDO - IG CDO

 

281

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

278

 

AAA

 

Metris Master Credit Card Trust

 

276

 

BB

 

Private Residential Mortgage Backed Securities

 

276

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Top 25 Structured Finance Exposures

 

$

10,763

 

 

 

 


(1)   Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company

 

(2)   Assured Guaranty internal rating

 

27



 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

Statutory Capital & Claims Paying Resources

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of:

 

 

 

September 30,
2004

 

December 31,
2003

 

Statutory surplus and reserves

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve(1)

 

$

418

 

$

467

 

Contingency reserve

 

456

 

400

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

274

 

256

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves

 

32

 

55

 

Total policyholders’ surplus & reserve

 

$

1,180

 

$

1,178

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Claims paying resources

 

 

 

 

 

Policyholder’s surplus

 

$

274

 

$

256

 

Contingency reserve

 

456

 

400

 

Statutory capital

 

730

 

656

 

Unearned premium reserve(2)

 

418

 

467

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves

 

32

 

55

 

Total policyholders’ reserves

 

450

 

522

 

Present value of installment premium

 

279

 

293

 

Standby line of credit/stop loss

 

255

 

255

 

Total claims paying resources

 

$

1,714

 

$

1,726

 

 


(1)   AGR numbers are our estimate of US statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements

 

(2)   Unearned premium reserve for AGR is GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

28



 

Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended
September 30

 

% Change
versus

 

9 Months Ended
September 30

 

% Change
versus

 

 

 

2004

 

2003

 

3Q-03

 

2004

 

2003

 

YTD 2003

 

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

55.8

 

$

56.2

 

-1

%

$

35.5

 

$

141.9

 

-75

%

Net written premiums

 

68.8

 

53.6

 

28

%

(26.3

)

123.9

 

-121

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

30.6

 

33.7

 

-9

%

45.5

 

91.9

 

-50

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net investment income

 

10.0

 

11.8

 

-15

%

31.9

 

37.1

 

-14

%

Other income

 

 

 

 

0.6

 

0.4

 

50

%

Total revenues

 

$

40.6

 

$

45.5

 

-11

%

$

78.0

 

$

129.4

 

-40

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

9.5

 

18.6

 

-49

%

(30.8

)

54.7

 

-156

%

Profit commission expenses

 

1.0

 

1.6

 

-38

%

11.2

 

6.4

 

75

%

Acquisition costs

 

1.1

 

4.1

 

-73

%

10.5

 

8.9

 

18

%

Other operating expenses

 

2.7

 

6.4

 

-58

%

11.3

 

15.4

 

-27

%

Total expenses

 

$

14.3

 

$

30.7

 

-53

%

$

2.2

 

$

85.4

 

-97

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income before provision for income taxes

 

26.3

 

14.8

 

78

%

75.8

 

44.0

 

72

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total provision for income taxes

 

2.3

 

1.5

 

53

%

6.2

 

6.2

 

0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

24.0

 

$

13.3

 

80

%

$

69.6

 

$

37.8

 

84

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After-tax net realized gains on investments

 

0.4

 

1.0

 

-60

%

6.8

 

2.7

 

152

%

After-tax unrealized gains on derivative instruments

 

5.3

 

9.3

 

-43

%

 

12.4

 

-100

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

29.7

 

$

23.6

 

26

%

$

76.4

 

$

52.9

 

44

%

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b) and adjusted book value (c)]

 

29



 

Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.

Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of

 

 

 

September 30,
2004

 

December 31,
2003

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assets

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed maturity securities available for sale, at fair value

 

$

779.5

 

$

925.5

 

Short-term investments, at cost, which approximates market

 

90.1

 

80.8

 

Total investments

 

869.6

 

1,006.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash

 

2.5

 

9.6

 

Accrued investment income

 

7.0

 

9.7

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

36.7

 

28.3

 

Premium receivable

 

40.8

 

155.6

 

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

10.1

 

7.7

 

Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses

 

157.0

 

122.1

 

Value of reinsurance business assumed

 

 

14.2

 

Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments

 

12.8

 

12.1

 

Funds held under reinsurance contracts

 

6.6

 

6.5

 

Other assets

 

10.3

 

7.3

 

Total assets

 

$

1,153.4

 

$

1,379.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve

 

$

170.9

 

$

240.4

 

Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

181.8

 

416.3

 

Profit commissions payable

 

53.1

 

67.2

 

Reinsurance balances payable

 

12.8

 

4.9

 

Deferred federal income taxes payable

 

(18.3

)

(22.8

)

Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts

 

52.2

 

9.6

 

Other liabilities

 

2.5

 

31.6

 

Total liabilities

 

455.1

 

747.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholder’s equity

 

 

 

 

 

Common stock

 

1.4

 

1.4

 

Additional paid-in capital

 

388.0

 

386.2

 

Accumulated other comprehensive income

 

25.4

 

35.8

 

Unearned stock grant compensation

 

(1.2

)

(2.6

)

Retained earnings

 

284.7

 

211.5

 

Total shareholder’s equity

 

698.3

 

632.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total liabilities and shareholder’s equity

 

$

1,153.4

 

$

1,379.6

 

 

30



 

Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of September 30, 2004:

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Sector

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Avg. Rating (8)

 

Public Finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation bonds

 

$

2,613

 

14.7

%

A+

 

Healthcare

 

2,498

 

14.1

%

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

2,184

 

12.3

%

AA-

 

Tax backed

 

1,474

 

8.3

%

AA-

 

Transportation

 

973

 

5.5

%

A

 

Structured municipal (1)

 

851

 

4.8

%

AAA

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

408

 

2.3

%

BBB+

 

Other public finance (2)

 

172

 

1.0

%

BBB+

 

Housing

 

164

 

0.9

%

A+

 

Higher education

 

132

 

0.7

%

AA-

 

Total public finance

 

$

11,469

 

64.7

%

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Structured Finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDO’s (3)

 

$

2,240

 

12.6

%

AAA

 

Single name corporate CDS (4)

 

1,779

 

10.0

%

AA-

 

Mortgage-backed & home equity

 

1,052

 

5.9

%

A

 

Commercial receivables (5)

 

533

 

3.0

%

A

 

Consumer receivables (6)

 

327

 

1.8

%

BBB

 

Other structured finance (7)

 

326

 

1.8

%

A+

 

Total structured finance

 

$

6,257

 

35.3

%

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total net par outstanding

 

$

17,726

 

100.0

%

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage guaranty risk in force

 

$

2,437

 

NA

 

NA

 

 


(1).  Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

 

(2).  Other municipal: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

 

(3).  Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

 

(4).  Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

 

(5).  Single name corporate credit default swaps (“CDS”) includes CDS of Investor-owned utilities.

 

(6).  Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

 

(7).  Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.

 

(8).  Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.

 

31



 

Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile – Page 2

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 

Ratings (1)

 

September 30, 2004
Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

December 31, 2003
Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

5,380

 

30.3

%

$

4,106

 

45.0

%

AA/Aa

 

3,034

 

17.1

%

1,375

 

15.1

%

A/A

 

6,882

 

38.8

%

2,800

 

30.7

%

BBB/Baa

 

2,392

 

13.5

%

793

 

8.7

%

Below investment grade

 

38

 

0.2

%

50

 

0.6

%

 

 

$

17,726

 

100

%

$

9,125

 

100

%

 

Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio, as of September 30, 2004

 

U.S.:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

California

 

$

1,303

 

7.3

%

New York

 

1,189

 

6.7

%

Texas

 

627

 

3.5

%

Ohio

 

517

 

2.9

%

Florida

 

481

 

2.7

%

New Jersey

 

446

 

2.5

%

Illinois

 

440

 

2.5

%

Wisconsin

 

389

 

2.2

%

Washington

 

365

 

2.1

%

Puerto Rico

 

349

 

2.0

%

Other - Muni

 

4,480

 

25.3

%

Other - Non Muni

 

4,871

 

27.5

%

Total U.S.

 

$

15,456

 

87.2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

International:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

United Kingdom

 

$

1,058

 

6.0

%

Germany

 

336

 

1.9

%

France

 

121

 

0.7

%

Japan

 

109

 

0.6

%

Netherlands

 

96

 

0.5

%

Other

 

550

 

3.1

%

Total International

 

$

2,270

 

12.8

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

17,726

 

100.0

%

 

Distribution by Ratings of CDO and Credit Derivative Exposure

 

Ratings (1)

 

Sept. 30, 2004
Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

December 31, 2003
Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

4,240

 

65.1

%

$

3,119

 

84.4

%

AA/Aa

 

390

 

6.0

%

192

 

5.2

%

A/A

 

1,422

 

21.8

%

155

 

4.2

%

BBB/Baa

 

449

 

6.9

%

206

 

5.6

%

Below investment grade

 

17

 

0.3

%

24

 

0.6

%

 

 

$

6,518

 

100

%

$

3,695

 

100

%


(1)   Assured Guaranty internal rating

 

32



 

Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.

Capital & Claims Paying Resources(1)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of:

 

 

 

September 30,
2004

 

December 31,
2003

 

Statutory surplus and reserves

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve(2)

 

$

161

 

$

233

 

Contingency reserve

 

 

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

612

 

560

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves

 

182

 

390

 

Total policyholders’ surplus & reserve

 

$

955

 

$

1,183

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Claims paying resources

 

 

 

 

 

Policyholder’s surplus

 

$

612

 

$

560

 

Contingency reserve

 

 

 

Statutory capital

 

612

 

560

 

Unearned premium reserve(2)

 

161

 

233

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves

 

182

 

390

 

Total policyholders’ reserves

 

343

 

623

 

Present value of installment premium

 

112

 

90

 

Standby line of credit/stop loss

 

 

 

Total claims paying resources

 

$

1,067

 

$

1,273

 

 


(1)   AGR numbers are our estimate of US statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements

(2)   Unearned premium reserve for AGR is GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

33



 

Endnotes related to non-GAAP measures discussed in the operating supplement:

 

(a) PVP, which is a non-GAAP measure, represents gross premiums related to financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty contracts written in the current period, including upfront and installment premiums received on contracts written in the current period and the present value of estimated future installment premiums, discounted at 6% per year.  We use 6% as the present value discount because it is the approximate taxable equivalent yield on our investment portfolio for the periods presented.  We believe PVP is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because it permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty by taking into account the value of installment premiums on new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, which the GAAP gross premiums written does not adequately measure.

 

(b)  Operating income, which is a non-GAAP measure, is defined as net income excluding after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments.  Operating ROE represents operating income as a percentage of average shareholder's equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI).  We believe the presentation of operating income and operating ROE enhances the understanding of our results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of our insurance business.  We exclude net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, the market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict.  This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for net income determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).

 

(c)  Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP measure, is derived by beginning with shareholder's equity (book value) and adding or subtracting the after-tax value of; the financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty net unearned premium reserve; deferred acquisition costs and the present value of estimated net future installment premiums (discounted at 6%).  The adjustments described above will not be realized until future periods and may differ materially from the amounts used in determining adjusted book value.  Management, investors and analysts use the calculation of adjusted book value to evaluate the net present value of the Company's in-force premium and capital base.

 

34



 

 

 

Investor contact:

 

Sabra Purtill

 

(212) 408-6044

 

spurtill@assuredguaranty.com

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

30 Woodbourne Avenue

Chris McNamee

Hamilton HM 08 Bermuda

(212) 261-5509

www.assuredguaranty.com

cmcnamee@assuredguaranty.com

 

35