EX-99.1 2 a04-5810_1ex99d1.htm EX-99.1

Exhibit 99.1

 

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
30 Woodbourne Avenue – 5th Floor
Hamilton Bermuda HM 08
441-299-9375
www.assuredguaranty.com

 

Press Release

 

Assured Guaranty Reports First Quarter 2004 Earnings

 

Hamilton, Bermuda – May 11, 2004. Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO) announced net income of $46.9 million for the first quarter ended March 31, 2004, an increase of 48% compared with $31.8 million earned in the first quarter of 2003.  Net income per diluted share was $0.63 in the quarter, up 50%, compared to $0.42 earned in the first quarter of 2003, based on 75 million shares outstanding upon completion of the IPO on April 28, 2004.

 

Analysis of Net Income

($ in millions)

 

 

 

1Q 2004

 

1Q 2003

 

% Change

 

Net income

 

$

46.9

 

$

31.8

 

48

%

After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

 

1.3

 

NMF

 

After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives

 

3.1

 

(0.3

)

NMF

 

Operating income (1)

 

$

43.7

 

$

30.7

 

42

%

IPO-related income

 

11.1

 

 

NMF

 

Subtotal excluding IPO-related income

 

$

32.6

 

$

30.7

 

6

%

 

NMF = not meaningful

 

Operating income, which we define as net income excluding after-tax net realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments, was $43.7 million or $0.58 per diluted share in the first quarter of 2004, up 42% compared with $30.7 million or $0.41 per diluted share in the first quarter of 2003.  Management, investors and analysts use operating income to evaluate our results of operations, as this measure highlights the underlying profitability of our business.  A portion of operating income arose in connection with transactions associated with our IPO, which included our exiting certain lines of business, and expenses associated with a staff reduction in February 2004.  The net impact of these actions on first quarter 2004 results was an increase in operating income of $11.1 million, or $0.15 per share in the quarter.

 

Gross Premiums Written by Segment

($ in millions)

 

 

 

1Q 2004

 

1Q 2003

 

% change

 

Financial guaranty direct

 

$

25.6

 

$

14.0

 

83

%

Financial guaranty reinsurance

 

52.4

 

29.8

 

76

%

Mortgage guaranty

 

14.0

 

8.1

 

73

%

Sub-total

 

$

92.0

 

$

51.9

 

77

%

Other segment

 

(93.6

)

60.9

 

NMF

 

Total gross premium written

 

$

(1.5

)

$

112.7

 

NMF

 

 

NMF = not meaningful

 

Gross premiums written were a negative $1.5 million in the quarter.  Gross premiums written in our other segment (which represents our exited lines of business) were reduced by $97.8 million in the quarter due to the accounting for the unwinding of equity layer credit protection products.  Partially offsetting this premium reduction was the recognition of $10.4 million of gross premiums written in the financial guaranty direct segment due to the closing out of transaction types in which we no longer participate; excluding this amount, gross premiums written in the financial guaranty direct segment grew 9%.

 

1



 

Analysis of Present Value of Gross Financial Guaranty Premiums Written (“PVP”)(2)

($ in millions)

 

 

 

1Q 2004

 

1Q 2003

 

% change

 

Financial guaranty direct segment

 

$

7.9

 

$

20.7

 

(62%

)

Financial guaranty reinsurance segment(3)

 

74.6

 

38.6

 

93

%

PVP

 

$

82.5

 

$

59.3

 

39

%

 

The present value of gross financial guaranty premiums written (“PVP”) in the quarter was $82.5 million, compared with $59.3 million in the first quarter of 2003.  Management, equity analysts and investors use this non-GAAP measure to evaluate the value of new financial guaranty business production, as the GAAP gross premiums written measure does not reflect the present value of installment premiums on new contracts underwritten in a reporting period.  See “Selected Financial Highlights” for a reconciliation of PVP to gross premiums written.

 

Dominic Frederico, CEO of Assured Guaranty, noted, “This quarter demonstrates the strength of our flexible operating structure.  Our reinsurance business produced outstanding results despite a soft financial guaranty market.  Our mortgage guaranty platform also produced solid new business that will contribute to our future earnings base.”

 

Financial guaranty direct PVP totaled $7.9 million, down 62%, consistent with management’s expectations.  While the structured finance market normally experiences some seasonal slowdown in the first quarter, Assured Guaranty’s marketing efforts were relatively modest in the quarter given the Company’s focus on the IPO and implementing the change in business strategy.  Management expects PVP in this segment to increase over the remainder of the year; the fourth quarter is historically the strongest quarter for this business.

 

Financial guaranty reinsurance PVP totaled $74.6 million, up 93%.  This quarter’s strong volumes reflect relatively higher primary insurance volumes from the fourth quarter of 2003, combined with changes in treaty terms that increased our reinsurance market share with some cedants in 2004 compared to the prior year’s quarter.  Management expects 2004 reinsurance volumes to be below the annualized level of the first quarter of 2004, reflecting our cedants’ expectations that their 2004 financial guaranty new business production will be level or lower than 2003.

 

Net Premiums Earned by Segment

($ in millions)

 

 

 

1Q 2004

 

1Q 2003

 

% Change

 

Financial guaranty direct

 

$

40.7

 

$

14.7

 

177

%

Financial guaranty reinsurance

 

20.4

 

16.9

 

21

%

Mortgage guaranty

 

8.4

 

9.6

 

(13%

)

Sub-total

 

$

69.5

 

$

41.2

 

69

%

Other segment

 

17.2

 

22.4

 

(23%

)

Total

 

86.7

 

63.6

 

36

%

Municipal refunding premiums

 

2.9

 

3.3

 

(12%

)

Sub-total

 

$

83.8

 

$

60.3

 

39

%

 

Net premiums earned were $86.7 million in the first quarter of 2004, up 36% compared with $63.6 million in the first quarter of 2003.  Financial guaranty direct net premiums earned included $24.2 million associated with the closing out of transaction types that we do not expect to underwrite in the future.  Financial guaranty reinsurance net premiums earned were $20.4 million, up 21% from $16.9 million in the first quarter of 2003.  Included in this amount were $2.9 million of municipal bond refunding premiums, compared with $3.3 million in the first quarter of 2003.  Mortgage

 

2



 

guaranty net premiums earned were $8.4 million, compared with $9.6 million in the first quarter of 2003, reflecting the run-off of our quota share mortgage guaranty reinsurance business.

 

Investment income in the quarter was $24.4 million, up modestly compared with $24.1 million in the first quarter of 2003.  The average portfolio yield was 4.8%, compared with 5.3% in the prior year on an investment portfolio of $2.2 billion at March 31, 2004.  The portfolio’s average credit quality remained at AA+/Aa2.  As a result of IPO-related transactions in the other segment, we expect a $163 million reduction in the investment portfolio in the second quarter.

 

Consolidated GAAP Combined Ratio

 

 

 

1Q 2004

 

1Q 2003

 

Change

 

Loss ratio

 

27.3

%

36.5

%

(9.2

)pp

Expense ratio

 

35.9

%

41.6

%

(5.7

)pp

Combined ratio

 

63.2

%

78.1

%

(14.9

)pp

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses in the quarter were $23.7 million, or 27.3% of net premiums earned (“loss ratio”), compared with $23.2 million or a 36.5% loss ratio in the first quarter of 2003.  Both loss ratios are significantly affected by the other segment and the closing out of transactions in the financial guaranty direct segment in preparation for our IPO.

 

Assured Guaranty’s profit commission expense, acquisition costs and other operating expenses were $31.2 million in the quarter and 35.9% as a percent of net premiums earned (“expense ratio”), as compared to $26.4 million or a 41.6% expense ratio in the first quarter of 2003.  The increase in expenses reflects the addition of IPO-related and holding company expenses as well as $1.5 million of severance expenses in the quarter.

 

The Company’s March 31, 2004 book value per share was $20.13, up 5% from December 31, 2003.  Excluding the effects of FAS 115, book value per share was $18.81 per share or up 4%.  Management, investors and analysts use the calculation of adjusted book value to evaluate the net present value of the Company’s in-force premium and capital base.  Adjusted book value(4) per share was $26.38, up 9% from December 31, 2003.  Book value and adjusted book value per share do not include the financial impact of the issuance of the $200 million note to ACE Limited after the first quarter of 2004 and prior to the IPO.  Including this note and closing IPO adjustments, book value per share and adjusted book value per share would have been $18.24 and $24.41, respectively.

 

Robert Mills, CFO of Assured Guaranty, commented, “The first quarter’s results reflect the numerous actions undertaken as part of our IPO.  Excluding these items, our first quarter results represent a baseline for our earnings going forward, as we work toward achieving our target of an 11% ROE in 2004. While our direct financial guaranty production was low, it was consistent with our expectations given the numerous initiatives underway at the Company in preparation for our IPO and was more than offset by strong business production in our financial guaranty reinsurance segment.”

 

The Company will host a conference call for investors at 8:30 a.m. EDT (9:30 a.m. ADT) on Tuesday, May 11, 2004.  The conference call will be available via live and archived webcast at www.assuredguaranty.com or by dialing 1-800-901-5217 (in the United States) and 1-617-786-2962 (International), passcode 65812948.  A replay of the call will be available from May 11, 2004

 

3



 

until May 25, 2004. To listen to the replay dial: 1-888-286-8010 (in the United States) or 1-617-801-6888 (International), passcode 16047630.

 

Please refer to the Assured Guaranty Financial Supplement March 31, 2004, which is posted on the Company’s investor information page on the Company’s website, for more detailed information on individual segment performance, together with additional disclosure on our financial guaranty portfolio and investment portfolio.

 

Assured Guaranty is a Bermuda-based holding company providing credit enhancement products to the municipal finance, structured finance and mortgage markets.  More information can be found at www.assuredguaranty.com.

 

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:

 

Any forward-looking statements made in this press release reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.  Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements.  The Company’s forward-looking statements also could be affected by rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company’s new business strategy, a significant reduction in the amount of reinsurance ceded by one or more of our principal ceding companies, developments in the world’s financial and capital markets, more severe losses or more frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserve, changes in regulation or tax laws, the Company’s dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, and changes in general economic conditions, as well as management’s response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.  Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made.  The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

 


Glossary:

 

(1) We believe the presentation of operating income enhances the understanding of our results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of our business.  We exclude net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, the market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict.  This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for net income determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).

 

(2) PVP, which is a non-GAAP measure, represents gross premiums related to financial guaranty contracts written in the current period, including the full amount of upfront installment premiums received and the present value of all installment premiums, discounted at 6% per year.

 

(3) Due to reporting lags by our ceding companies, PVP for our financial guaranty reinsurance segment is reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

4



 

(4) Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP measure, is derived by beginning with shareholder’s equity (book value) and adding or subtracting the after-tax value of: the financial guaranty net unearned premium reserve; deferred acquisition costs and the present value of estimated net future installment premiums (discounted at 6%).  These adjustments will not be realized until future periods and may differ materially from the amounts used in determining adjusted book value.

 

Contact Information:

 

Media:

Barbara Van Hassel

212-261-5580

bvanhassel@assuredguaranty.com

 

Investors:

Sabra Purtill

441- 299-9375

spurtill@assuredguaranty.com

 

5



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Income Statements

 

 

 

Quarter Ended
March 31,

 

 

 

2004

 

2003

 

 

 

(dollars in thousands)

 

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

(1,543

)

$

112,735

 

Net written premiums

 

(6,871

)

104,073

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

$

86,667

 

$

63,588

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net investment income

 

24,385

 

24,101

 

Other income

 

532

 

557

 

Total revenues

 

$

111,584

 

$

88,246

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

23,668

 

23,188

 

Profit commission expenses

 

5,486

 

2,969

 

Acquisition costs

 

13,108

 

11,843

 

Other operating expenses

 

12,623

 

11,635

 

Goodwill expense

 

1,645

 

 

Interest expense

 

1,434

 

1,434

 

Total expenses

 

$

57,964

 

$

51,069

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income before provision for income taxes

 

53,620

 

37,177

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total provision for income taxes

 

9,902

 

6,434

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income excluding after-tax realized gains on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments

 

$

43,718

 

$

30,743

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After-tax realized gains on investments

 

31

 

1,297

 

After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments

 

3,143

 

(289

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

46,892

 

$

31,751

 

 

6



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Balance Sheets

 

 

 

As of

 

 

 

March 31,
2004

 

December 31,
2003

 

 

 

(dollars in thousands)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assets

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed maturity securities available for sale, at fair value

 

$

2,065,948

 

$

2,052,217

 

Short-term investments, at cost, which approximates market

 

154,355

 

137,517

 

Total investments

 

2,220,303

 

2,189,734

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash

 

36,254

 

32,365

 

Accrued investment income

 

24,302

 

23,758

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

186,267

 

178,673

 

Premium receivable

 

35,133

 

63,997

 

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

17,012

 

10,974

 

Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses

 

106,131

 

122,124

 

Due from affiliate

 

 

115,000

 

Value of reinsurance business assumed

 

11,915

 

14,226

 

Goodwill

 

85,417

 

87,062

 

Other assets

 

26,490

 

19,954

 

Total assets

 

$

2,749,224

 

$

2,857,867

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve

 

$

537,930

 

$

625,429

 

Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

431,297

 

522,593

 

Profit commissions payable

 

56,805

 

71,237

 

Deferred federal income taxes payable

 

73,865

 

55,637

 

Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments

 

1,209

 

8,558

 

Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts

 

9,289

 

9,635

 

Long-term debt

 

75,000

 

75,000

 

Other liabilities

 

53,757

 

52,154

 

Total liabilities

 

$

1,239,152

 

$

1,420,243

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholder’s equity

 

 

 

 

 

Common stock

 

16,403

 

16,403

 

Additional paid-in capital

 

961,853

 

955,490

 

Accumulated other comprehensive income

 

99,405

 

81,185

 

Unearned stock grant compensation

 

(4,506

)

(5,479

)

Retained earnings

 

436,917

 

390,025

 

Total shareholder’s equity

 

$

1,510,072

 

$

1,437,624

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total liabilities and shareholder’s equity

 

$

2,749,224

 

$

2,857,867

 

 

7



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Selected Financial Highlights

 

 

 

Quarter Ended
March 31,

 

 

 

2004

 

2003

 

 

 

(dollars in thousands except per share amounts)

 

Premium analysis:

 

 

 

 

 

Present value of gross premiums written (“PVP”)

 

$

82,500

 

$

59,300

 

Present value of installment premiums written in period

 

(47,900

)

(36,400

)

Upfront gross premiums writen

 

34,600

 

22,900

 

Installment gross premiums written

 

43,408

 

20,857

 

Financial guaranty gross premiums written

 

$

78,008

 

$

43,757

 

Mortgage

 

14,007

 

8,114

 

Other

 

(93,558

)

60,864

 

Total gross premiums written

 

$

(1,543

)

$

112,735

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

1,510,072

 

$

1,437,624

 

Net UPR less DAC - after-tax

 

216,129

 

177,680

 

Net present value of installment premiums in-force - after-tax

 

252,200

 

205,700

 

Adjusted book value

 

$

1,978,401

 

$

1,821,004

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average basic shares outstanding  *

 

75,000,000

 

75,000,000

 

Average fully diluted shares outstanding  *

 

75,000,000

 

75,000,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per fully-diluted share:

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

0.63

 

$

0.42

 

less: After-tax realized gains on investments

 

0.00

 

0.02

 

less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives

 

0.04

 

(0.00

)

Operating income

 

$

0.58

 

$

0.41

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

20.13

 

$

19.17

 

Net UPR less DAC - after-tax

 

2.88

 

2.37

 

Net present value of installment premiums in-force - after-tax

 

3.36

 

2.74

 

Adjusted book value

 

$

26.38

 

$

24.28

 

 


*  Represents shares issued upon the IPO closing

 

8