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Outstanding Exposure
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2011
Outstanding Exposure  
Outstanding Exposure

4. Outstanding Exposure

        The Company's financial guaranty contracts are written in different forms, but collectively are considered financial guaranty contracts. They typically guarantee the scheduled payments of principal and interest ("Debt Service") on public finance and structured finance obligations. The Company seeks to limit its exposure to losses by underwriting obligations that are investment grade at inception, diversifying its portfolio and maintaining rigorous subordination or collateralization requirements on structured finance obligations. The Company also has utilized reinsurance by ceding business to third-party reinsurers. The Company provides financial guaranties with respect to debt obligations of special purpose entities, including VIEs. Based on accounting standards in effect during any given reporting period, some of these VIEs are consolidated as described in Note 8, Consolidation of Variable Interest Entities. The outstanding par and Debt Service amounts presented below include outstanding exposures on VIEs whether or not they are consolidated.

Debt Service Outstanding

 
  Gross Debt Service
Outstanding
  Net Debt Service
Outstanding
 
 
  December 31,
2011
  December 31,
2010
  December 31,
2011
  December 31,
2010
 
 
  (in millions)
 

Public finance

  $ 798,471   $ 851,634   $ 716,890   $ 760,167  

Structured finance

    137,661     178,348     128,775     166,976  
                   

Total financial guaranty

  $ 936,132   $ 1,029,982   $ 845,665   $ 927,143  
                   

Summary of Public and Structured Finance Insured Portfolio

 
  Gross Par Outstanding   Ceded Par Outstanding   Net Par Outstanding  
Sector
  December 31,
2011
  December 31,
2010
  December 31,
2011
  December 31,
2010
  December 31,
2011
  December 31,
2010
 
 
  (in millions)
 

Public finance:

                                     

U.S.:

                                     

General obligation

  $ 187,857   $ 198,553   $ 14,796   $ 16,754   $ 173,061   $ 181,799  

Tax backed

    85,866     92,246     7,860     8,843     78,006     83,403  

Municipal utilities

    69,803     75,588     4,599     5,522     65,204     70,066  

Transportation

    40,409     42,482     5,013     5,509     35,396     36,973  

Healthcare

    23,540     26,383     4,045     4,791     19,495     21,592  

Higher education

    16,535     16,584     858     897     15,677     15,687  

Housing

    6,363     7,316     667     754     5,696     6,562  

Infrastructure finance

    4,983     4,945     873     853     4,110     4,092  

Investor-owned utilities

    1,125     1,507     1     2     1,124     1,505  

Other public finance—U.S. 

    5,380     5,417     76     100     5,304     5,317  
                           

Total public finance—U.S. 

    441,861     471,021     38,788     44,025     403,073     426,996  

Non-U.S.:

                                     

Infrastructure finance

    18,231     18,780     2,826     2,807     15,405     15,973  

Regulated utilities

    17,639     18,427     4,379     4,449     13,260     13,978  

Pooled infrastructure

    3,351     3,656     221     224     3,130     3,432  

Other public finance—non-U.S. 

    9,183     9,582     1,932     2,222     7,251     7,360  
                           

Total public finance—non-U.S. 

    48,404     50,445     9,358     9,702     39,046     40,743  
                           

Total public finance obligations

  $ 490,265   $ 521,466   $ 48,146   $ 53,727   $ 442,119   $ 467,739  
                           

Structured finance:

                                     

U.S.:

                                     

Pooled corporate obligations

  $ 54,585   $ 71,591   $ 3,065   $ 4,207   $ 51,520   $ 67,384  

RMBS

    22,842     26,609     1,275     1,479     21,567     25,130  

Financial products(1)

    5,217     6,831             5,217     6,831  

Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities ("CMBS") and other commercial real estate related exposures

    4,827     7,137     53     53     4,774     7,084  

Consumer receivables

    4,489     6,343     163     270     4,326     6,073  

Insurance securitizations

    1,966     1,656     73     72     1,893     1,584  

Commercial receivables

    1,222     2,142     8     3     1,214     2,139  

Structured credit

    489     1,794     65     65     424     1,729  

Other structured finance—U.S. 

    2,453     1,980     1,154     1,178     1,299     802  
                           

Total structured finance—U.S. 

    98,090     126,083     5,856     7,327     92,234     118,756  

Non-U.S.:

                                     

Pooled corporate obligations

    19,670     25,087     1,939     2,477     17,731     22,610  

Commercial receivables

    1,893     1,764     28     35     1,865     1,729  

RMBS

    1,765     3,749     167     355     1,598     3,394  

Structured credit

    1,097     1,397     118     130     979     1,267  

Insurance securitizations

    979     979     15     15     964     964  

CMBS and other commercial real estate related exposures

    180     251             180     251  

Other structured finance—non-U.S. 

    403     472     25     51     378     421  
                           

Total structured finance—non-U.S. 

    25,987     33,699     2,292     3,063     23,695     30,636  
                           

Total structured finance obligations

  $ 124,077   $ 159,782   $ 8,148   $ 10,390   $ 115,929   $ 149,392  
                           

Total

  $ 614,342   $ 681,248   $ 56,294   $ 64,117   $ 558,048   $ 617,131  
                           

(1)
As discussed in Note 2, Business Changes, Risks, Uncertainties and Accounting Developments, this represents the exposure to AGM's financial guaranties of GICs issued by AGMH's former financial products companies. This exposure is guaranteed by Dexia. The Company has also been protected by guaranties issued by the French and Belgian governments.

        As of December 31, 2011, the Company's net mortgage guaranty insurance in force was approximately $171.6 million. Of the $171.6 million, $136.1 million covers loans originated in Ireland and $35.5 million covers loans originated in the UK.


Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating

 
  As of December 31, 2011  
 
  Public Finance
U.S.
  Public Finance
Non-U.S.
  Structured Finance
U.S
  Structured Finance
Non-U.S
  Total  
Rating Category
  Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %  
 
  (dollars in millions)
 

Super senior

  $     % $ 1,138     2.9 % $ 16,756     18.2 % $ 5,660     23.9 % $ 23,554     4.2 %

AAA

    5,074     1.3     1,381     3.5     35,736     38.7     10,231     43.2     52,422     9.4  

AA

    139,693     34.6     1,056     2.7     11,079     12.0     976     4.1     152,804     27.4  

A

    213,164     52.9     11,744     30.1     4,116     4.5     1,518     6.4     230,542     41.3  

BBB

    40,635     10.1     21,399     54.8     5,087     5.5     3,391     14.3     70,512     12.6  

BIG

    4,507     1.1     2,328     6.0     19,460     21.1     1,919     8.1     28,214     5.1  
                                           

Total net par outstanding

  $ 403,073     100.0 % $ 39,046     100.0 % $ 92,234     100.0 % $ 23,695     100.0 % $ 558,048     100.0 %
                                           

 

 
  As of December 31, 2010  
 
  Public Finance
U.S.
  Public Finance
Non-U.S.
  Structured Finance
U.S
  Structured Finance
Non-U.S
  Total  
Rating Category
  Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %  
 
  (dollars in millions)
 

Super senior

  $     % $ 1,420     3.5 % $ 21,837     18.4 % $ 7,882     25.7 % $ 31,139     5.0 %

AAA

    5,784     1.4     1,378     3.4     45,067     37.9     13,573     44.3     65,802     10.7  

AA

    161,906     37.9     1,330     3.3     17,355     14.6     1,969     6.4     182,560     29.6  

A

    214,199     50.2     12,482     30.6     6,396     5.4     1,873     6.1     234,950     38.1  

BBB

    41,948     9.8     22,338     54.8     7,543     6.4     4,045     13.2     75,874     12.3  

BIG

    3,159     0.7     1,795     4.4     20,558     17.3     1,294     4.3     26,806     4.3  
                                           

Total net par outstanding

  $ 426,996     100.0 % $ 40,743     100.0 % $ 118,756     100.0 % $ 30,636     100.0 % $ 617,131     100.0 %
                                           

        Actual maturities of insured obligations could differ from contractual maturities because borrowers have the right to call or prepay certain obligations with or without call or prepayment penalties. The expected maturities of structured finance obligations are, in general, considerably shorter than the contractual maturities for such obligations. For structured finance obligations, the full par outstanding for each insured risk is shown in the maturity category that corresponds to the final legal maturity of such risk.


Contractual Terms to Maturity of
Net Par Outstanding of Financial Guaranty Insured Obligations

 
  December 31, 2011  
Terms to Maturity
  Public
Finance
  Structured
Finance
  Total  
 
  (in millions)
 

0 to 5 years

  $ 90,421   $ 25,249   $ 115,670  

5 to 10 years

    94,718     35,176     129,894  

10 to 15 years

    86,628     9,600     96,228  

15 to 20 years

    63,153     2,807     65,960  

20 years and above

    107,199     43,097     150,296  
               

Total net par outstanding

  $ 442,119   $ 115,929   $ 558,048  
               

        In addition to amounts shown in the tables above, the Company had outstanding commitments to provide guaranties of $2.8 billion for structured finance and $1.3 billion for public finance obligations at December 31, 2011. The structured finance commitments include the unfunded component of pooled corporate and other transactions. Public finance commitments typically relate to primary and secondary public finance debt issuances. The expiration dates for the public finance commitments range between January 1, 2012 and February 25, 2017, with $1.0 billion expiring prior to December 31, 2012. All the commitments are contingent on the satisfaction of all conditions set forth in them and may expire unused or be cancelled at the counterparty's request. Therefore, the total commitment amount does not necessarily reflect actual future guaranteed amounts.

        The Company seeks to maintain a diversified portfolio of insured obligations designed to spread its risk across a number of geographic areas. The following table sets forth those geographic areas with an aggregate of 2% or more of the Company's net par amount outstanding.


Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio
as of December 31, 2011

 
  Number
of Risks
  Net
Par Amount
Outstanding
  Percent of
Total Net
Par Amount
Outstanding
  Ceded
Par Amount
Outstanding
 
 
  (dollars in millions)
 

U.S.:

                         

U.S. Public finance:

                         

California

    1,592   $ 57,815     10.4 % $ 6,206  

New York

    1,062     33,268     6.0     4,416  

Pennsylvania

    1,173     30,656     5.5     1,837  

Texas

    1,290     29,922     5.4     1,524  

Florida

    471     25,664     4.6     1,794  

Illinois

    1,020     25,645     4.6     3,293  

New Jersey

    764     17,071     3.1     3,034  

Michigan

    775     15,832     2.8     1,094  

Massachusetts

    315     11,390     2.0     2,187  

Other states

    5,906     155,810     27.9     13,403  
                   

Total U.S. Public finance

    14,368     403,073     72.3     38,788  

Structured finance (multiple states)

    1,162     92,234     16.5     5,856  
                   

Total U.S. 

    15,530     495,307     88.8     44,644  

Non-U.S.:

                         

United Kingdom

    125     24,202     4.3     5,610  

Australia

    37     8,356     1.5     1,405  

Canada

    13     4,186     0.8     552  

France

    23     4,056     0.7     1,136  

Italy

    12     2,396     0.4     478  

Other

    126     19,545     3.5     2,469  
                   

Total non-U.S. 

    336     62,741     11.2     11,650  
                   

Total

    15,866   $ 558,048     100.0 % $ 56,294  
                   

Economic Exposure to the Selected European Countries

        Several European countries are experiencing significant economic, fiscal and / or political strains such that the likelihood of default on obligations with a nexus to those countries may be higher than the Company anticipated when such factors did not exist. The Company is closely monitoring its exposures in European countries where it believes heightened uncertainties exist: specifically the Selected European Countries. Published reports have identified countries that may be experiencing reduced demand for their sovereign debt in the current environment. The Company selected these European countries based on these reports and its view that their credit fundamentals are deteriorating. The Company's economic exposure to the Selected European Countries (based on par for financial guaranty contracts and notional amount for financial guaranty contracts accounted for as derivatives) is shown in the following table net of ceded reinsurance:


Net Economic Exposure to Selected European Countries(1)
December 31, 2011

 
  Greece   Hungary   Ireland   Italy   Portugal   Spain   Total  
 
  (in millions)
 

Sovereign and sub-sovereign exposure:

                                           

Public finance

  $ 282   $   $   $ 1,011   $ 113   $ 264   $ 1,670  

Infrastructure finance

        453     24     332     102     169     1,080  
                               

Sub-total

    282     453     24     1,343     215     433     2,750  
                               

Non-sovereign exposure:

                                           

Regulated utilities

                220         20     240  

RMBS

        257     136     516             909  

Commercial receivables

        1     28     29     15     23     96  

Pooled corporate

    34         241     289     25     550     1,139  
                               

Sub-total

    34     258     405     1,054     40     593     2,384  
                               

Total

  $ 316   $ 711   $ 429   $ 2,397   $ 255   $ 1,026   $ 5,134  
                               

Total BIG

  $ 282   $ 414   $ 15   $ 245   $ 130   $ 141   $ 1,227  
                               

(1)
While the Company's exposures are shown in U.S. dollars, the obligations the Company insures are in various currencies, including U.S. dollars, Euros and British pounds sterling. Included in the table above is $136.1 million of reinsurance assumed on a 2004 - 2006 pool of Irish residential mortgages that is part of the Company's legacy mortgage reinsurance business ($171.6 million remaining, including the Irish exposure) and so is not included in the Company's exposure tables elsewhere in this document. One of the residential mortgage-backed securities included in the table above includes residential mortgages in both Italy and Germany, and only the portion of the transaction equal to the portion of the original mortgage pool in Italian mortgages is shown in the table.

Significant Risk Management Activities

        The Risk Oversight and Audit Committees of the Board of Directors of AGL oversee the Company's risk management policies and procedures. With input from the board committees, specific risk policies and limits are set by the Portfolio Risk Management Committee, which includes members of senior management and senior Credit and Surveillance officers. The Company's Risk Management function encompasses enterprise risk management, establishing the Company's risk appetite, credit underwriting of new business, surveillance and work-out.

        Surveillance personnel are responsible for monitoring and reporting on all transactions in the insured portfolio.

        The primary objective of the surveillance process is to monitor trends and changes in transaction credit quality, detect any deterioration in credit quality, and recommend to management such remedial actions as may be necessary or appropriate. All transactions in the insured portfolio are assigned internal credit ratings, and Surveillance personnel are responsible for recommending adjustments to those ratings to reflect changes in transaction credit quality.

        Work-out personnel are responsible for managing work-out and loss mitigation situations, working with surveillance and legal personnel (as well as outside vendors) as appropriate. They develop strategies for the Company to enforce its contractual rights and remedies and to mitigate its losses, engage in negotiation discussions with transaction participants and, when necessary, manage (along with legal personnel) the Company's litigation proceedings.

        Since the onset of the financial crisis, the Company has shifted personnel to loss mitigation and work-out activities and hired new personnel to augment its efforts. Although the Company's loss mitigation efforts may extend to any transaction it has identified as having loss potential, much of the activity has been focused on RMBS.

        Generally, when mortgage loans are transferred into a securitization, the loan originator(s) and/or sponsor(s) provide R&W, that the loans meet certain characteristics, and a breach of such R&W often requires that the loan be repurchased from the securitization. In many of the transactions the Company insures, it is in a position to enforce these requirements. The Company uses internal resources as well as third party forensic underwriting firms and legal firms to pursue breaches of R&W. If a provider of R&W refuses to honor its repurchase obligations, the Company may choose to initiate litigation. See "—Recovery Litigation" in Note 5, Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts, below.

        The Company's success in pursuing R&W claims against a number of counterparties that provided R&W on a loan by loan basis has permitted the Company to pursue reimbursement agreements with R&W providers. Such agreements provide the Company with many of the benefits of pursuing the R&W claims but without the expense and uncertainty of pursuing the R&W claims on a loan by loan basis. In April 2011 the Company entered into such an agreement with Bank of America, and it continues to pursue such agreements with other counterparties as opportunities arise as described under "Bank of America Agreement" in Note 2, Business Changes, Risks, Uncertainties and Accounting Developments.

        The quality of servicing of the mortgage loans underlying an RMBS transaction influences collateral performance and ultimately the amount (if any) of the Company's insured losses. The Company has established a group to mitigate RMBS losses by influencing mortgage servicing, including, if possible, causing the transfer of servicing or establishing special servicing. As a result of the Company's efforts, at December 31, 2011 the servicing of approximately $934 million mortgage balance of mortgage loans had been transferred to a new servicer and another $2.3 billion mortgage balance of mortgage loans were being special serviced. ("Special servicing" is an industry term referencing more intense servicing applied to delinquent loans aimed at mitigating losses.)

        The Company may also employ other strategies as appropriate to avoid or mitigate losses in U.S. RMBS or other areas, including pursuing litigation in areas other than RMBS or entering into other arrangements to alleviate or reduce all or a portion of certain risks.

Surveillance Categories

        The Company segregates its insured portfolio into investment grade and BIG surveillance categories to facilitate the appropriate allocation of resources to monitoring and loss mitigation efforts and to aid in establishing the appropriate cycle for periodic review for each exposure. BIG exposures include all exposures with internal credit ratings below BBB-. The Company's internal credit ratings are based on internal assessments of the likelihood of default and loss severity in the event of default. Internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by the rating agencies and are generally reflective of an approach similar to that employed by the rating agencies.

        The Company monitors its investment grade credits to determine whether any new credits need to be internally downgraded to BIG. The Company refreshes its internal credit ratings on individual credits in quarterly, semi-annual or annual cycles based on the Company's view of the credit's quality, loss potential, volatility and sector. Ratings on credits in sectors identified as under the most stress or with the most potential volatility are reviewed every quarter. The Company's insured credit ratings on assumed credits are based on the Company's reviews of low-rated credits or credits in volatile sectors, unless such information is not available, in which case, the ceding company's credit rating of the transactions are used. For example, the Company models all assumed RMBS credits with par above $1 million, as well as certain RMBS credits below that amount.

        Credits identified as BIG are subjected to further review to determine the probability of a loss (see Note 5, Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts, "—Loss Estimation Process"). Surveillance personnel then assign each BIG transaction to the appropriate BIG surveillance category based upon whether a lifetime loss is expected and whether a claim has been paid. The Company expects "lifetime losses" on a transaction when the Company believes there is more than a 50% chance that, on a present value basis, it will pay more claims over the life of that transaction than it will ultimately have been reimbursed. For surveillance purposes, the Company calculates present value using a constant discount rate of 5%. (A risk free rate is used for recording of reserves for financial statement purposes.) A "liquidity claim" is a claim that the Company expects to be reimbursed within one year.

        Intense monitoring and intervention is employed for all BIG surveillance categories, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. The three BIG categories are:

  • BIG Category 1: Below-investment-grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make lifetime losses possible, but for which none are currently expected. Transactions on which claims have been paid but are expected to be fully reimbursed (other than investment grade transactions on which only liquidity claims have been paid) are in this category.

    BIG Category 2: Below-investment-grade transactions for which lifetime losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims) have yet been paid.

    BIG Category 3: Below-investment-grade transactions for which lifetime losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid. Transactions remain in this category when claims have been paid and only a recoverable remains.

        Included in the first lien RMBS BIG exposures below is $1.8 billion of net par outstanding related to transactions covered by the Bank of America Agreement, which represents 18% of the first lien U.S. RMBS BIG net par outstanding as of December 31, 2011. Under the Bank of America Agreement, 80% of first lien claims paid by Assured Guaranty will be reimbursed, until such time as losses on the collateral underlying the RMBS on which Assured Guaranty is paying claims reach $6.6 billion.


Financial Guaranty Exposures
(Insurance and Credit Derivative Form)

 
  December 31, 2011  
 
  BIG Net Par Outstanding    
   
 
 
  Net Par
Outstanding
  BIG Net Par as a %
of Net Par
Outstanding
 
 
  BIG 1   BIG 2   BIG 3   Total BIG  
 
  (in millions)
   
 

First lien U.S. RMBS:

                                     

Prime first lien

  $ 77   $ 499   $   $ 576   $ 739     0.1 %

Alt-A first lien

    1,720     1,395     1,540     4,655     5,329     0.8  

Option ARM

    120     1,088     995     2,203     2,433     0.4  

Subprime (including net interest margin securities)

    1,000     1,414     513     2,927     8,136     0.5  

Second lien U.S. RMBS:

                                     

Closed end second lien

        495     520     1,015     1,040     0.2  

Home equity lines of credit ("HELOCs")

    421         2,858     3,279     3,890     0.6  
                           

Total U.S. RMBS

    3,338     4,891     6,426     14,655     21,567     2.6  

Trust preferred securities ("TruPS")

    2,501         951     3,452     6,334     0.6  

Other structured finance

    1,295     548     1,429     3,272     88,028     0.6  

Public finance

    5,441     556     838     6,835     442,119     1.3  
                           

Total

  $ 12,575   $ 5,995   $ 9,644   $ 28,214   $ 558,048     5.1 %
                           

 

 
  December 31, 2010  
 
  BIG Net Par Outstanding    
   
 
 
  Net Par
Outstanding
  BIG Net Par as a %
of Net Par
Outstanding
 
 
  BIG 1   BIG 2   BIG 3   Total BIG  
 
  (in millions)
   
 

First lien U.S. RMBS:

                                     

Prime first lien

  $ 82   $ 542   $   $ 624   $ 849     0.1 %

Alt-A first lien

    976     3,108     573     4,657     6,134     0.8  

Option ARM

    33     2,186     640     2,859     3,214     0.5  

Subprime (including net interest margin securities)

    729     2,248     106     3,083     9,039     0.4  

Second lien U.S. RMBS:

                                     

Closed end second lien

    63     444     624     1,131     1,164     0.2  

HELOCs

    369         3,632     4,001     4,730     0.6  
                           

Total U.S. RMBS

    2,252     8,528     5,575     16,355     25,130     2.6  

TruPS

    1,846         964     2,810     6,833     0.5  

Other structured finance

    841     363     1,483     2,687     117,429     0.4  

Public finance

    3,752     283     919     4,954     467,739     0.8  
                           

Total

  $ 8,691   $ 9,174   $ 8,941   $ 26,806   $ 617,131     4.3 %
                           


By Category Below-Investment-Grade Credits

 
  As of December 31, 2011  
 
  Net Par Outstanding   Number of Risks(2)  
Description
  Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
  Credit
Derivative
  Total   Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
  Credit
Derivative
  Total  
 
  (dollars in millions)
 

BIG:

                                     

Category 1

  $ 8,622   $ 3,953   $ 12,575     171     40     211  

Category 2

    4,214     1,781     5,995     71     33     104  

Category 3

    7,317     2,327     9,644     126     26     152  
                           

Total BIG

  $ 20,153   $ 8,061   $ 28,214     368     99     467  
                           

 

 
  As of December 31, 2010  
 
  Net Par Outstanding   Number of Risks(2)  
Description
  Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
  Credit
Derivative
  Total   Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
  Credit
Derivative
  Total  
 
  (dollars in millions)
 

BIG:

                                     

Category 1

  $ 5,450   $ 3,241   $ 8,691     119     31     150  

Category 2

    5,717     3,457     9,174     98     50     148  

Category 3

    7,281     1,660     8,941     115     12     127  
                           

Total BIG

  $ 18,448   $ 8,358   $ 26,806     332     93     425  
                           

(1)
Includes FG VIE net par outstanding of $2,704 million as of December 31, 2011and $2,234 million as of December 31, 2010.

(2)
A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making Debt Service payments.