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Fair Value Measurement
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2010
Fair Value Measurement 
Fair Value Measurement

7. Fair Value Measurement

        The Company carries a portion of its assets and liabilities at fair value. Substantially all of such assets and liabilities are carried at fair value on a recurring basis.

        Fair value is defined as the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date (i.e., exit price). The price represents the price available in the principal market for the asset or liability. If there is no principal market, then the price is based on the market that maximizes the value received for an asset or minimizes the amount paid for a liability (i.e., the most advantageous market).

        Fair value is based on quoted market prices, where available. If listed prices or quotes are not available, fair value is based on either internally developed models that primarily use, as inputs, market-based or independently sourced market parameters, including but not limited to yield curves, interest rates and debt prices or with the assistance of an independent third-party using a discounted cash flow approach and the third party's proprietary pricing models. In addition to market information, models also incorporate transaction details, such as maturity of the instrument and contractual features designed to reduce the Company's credit exposure such as collateral rights.

        Valuation adjustments may be made to ensure that financial instruments are recorded at fair value. These adjustments include amounts to reflect counterparty credit quality, the Company's creditworthiness, constraints on liquidity and unobservable parameters. Valuation adjustments are applied consistently over time. As markets and products develop and the pricing for certain products becomes more or less transparent, the Company continues to refine its methodologies. During 2010, no changes were made to the Company's valuation models that had or are expected to have, a material impact on the Company's consolidated balance sheets or statements of operations and comprehensive income.

        The Company's methods for calculating fair value may produce a fair value calculation that may not be indicative of net realizable value or reflective of future fair values. The use of different methodologies or assumptions to determine fair value of certain financial instruments could result in a different estimate of fair value at the reporting date.

        The fair value hierarchy is determined based on whether the inputs to valuation techniques used to measure fair value are observable or unobservable. Observable inputs reflect market data obtained from independent sources, while unobservable inputs reflect Company estimates of market assumptions. The fair value hierarchy prioritizes model inputs into three broad levels as follows, with level 1 being the highest and level 3 the lowest. An asset or liability's categorization within the fair value hierarchy is based on the lowest level of significant input to its valuation.

  •         Level 1—Quoted prices for identical instruments in active markets.

            Level 2—Quoted prices for similar instruments in active markets; quoted prices for identical or similar instruments in markets that are not active; and observable inputs other than quoted prices, such as interest rates or yield curves and other inputs derived from or corroborated by observable market inputs.

            Level 3—Model derived valuations in which one or more significant inputs or significant value drivers are unobservable. This hierarchy requires the use of observable market data when available. Financial instruments are considered Level 3 when their values are determined using pricing models, discounted cash flow methodologies or similar techniques and at least one significant model assumption or input is unobservable. Level 3 financial instruments also include those for which the determination of fair value requires significant management judgment or estimation.

        Transfers between levels 1, 2 and 3 in the investment portfolio are recognized at the beginning of the period when the transfer occurs. The Company reviews quarterly the classification between levels 1, 2 and 3 to determine, based on the definitions provided, whether a transfer is necessary.

        The following is a description of the valuation methodologies used by the Company to measure instruments at fair value.

Fixed Maturity Securities and Short-term Investments

        The fair value of bonds in the investment portfolio is generally based on quoted market prices received from third party pricing services or alternative pricing sources with reasonable levels of price transparency. Such quotes generally consider a variety of factors, including recent trades of the same and similar securities. If quoted market prices are not available, the valuation is based on pricing models that use dealer price quotations, price activity for traded securities with similar attributes and other relevant market factors as inputs, including security type, rating, vintage, tenor and its position in the capital structure of the issuer. The Company considers security prices from pricing services, index providers or broker-dealers to be Level 2 in the fair value hierarchy. Prices determined based upon model processes where at least one significant model assumption or input is unobservable, are considered to be Level 3 in the fair value hierarchy. The Company used model processes to price 27 fixed maturity securities as of December 31, 2010 and these securities were classified as Level 3.

        Broker-dealer quotations obtained to price securities are generally considered to be indicative and are nonactionable (i.e., non-binding).

        After analyzing level 3 prices provided by a third party pricing service, the Company determined it was necessary to reduce the pricing on one security based on the Company's own cash flow analysis.

Committed Capital Securities

        The fair value of committed capital securities ("CCS") represents the difference between the present value of remaining expected put option premium payments under AGC's CCS (the "AGC CCS Securities") and AGM's Committed Preferred Trust Securities (the "AGM CPS Securities") agreements and the value of such estimated payments based upon the quoted price for such premium payments as of the reporting dates (see Note 16). Changes in fair value of the AGM CPS and AGC CCS securities are recorded in the consolidated statements of operations. The significant market inputs used are observable, therefore, the Company classified this fair value measurement as Level 2.

Financial Guaranty Contracts in Insurance Form

        The fair value of the Company's financial guaranty contracts accounted for as insurance was based on management's estimate of what a similarly rated financial guaranty insurance company would demand to acquire the Company's in-force book of financial guaranty insurance business. This amount was based on the pricing assumptions management has observed in recent portfolio transfers that have occurred in the financial guaranty market and included adjustments to the carrying value of unearned premium reserve for stressed losses, ceding commissions and return on capital. The significant inputs for these inputs were not readily observable.

        The Company accordingly classified this fair value measurement as Level 3.

Long-Term Debt

        The Company's long-term debt, excluding notes payable, is valued by broker- dealers using third party independent pricing sources and standard market conventions. The market conventions utilize market quotations, market transactions in comparable instruments, and various relationships between instruments, such as yield to maturity.

        The fair value of the notes payable that are recorded within long-term debt was determined by calculating the present value of the expected cash flows. The Company uses a market approach to determine discounted future cash flows using market driven discount rates and a variety of assumptions if applicable including London Interbank Offered Rate ("LIBOR") curve projections, prepayment and default assumptions, and AGM CDS spreads.

Financial Guaranty Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives

        The Company's credit derivatives consist primarily of insured CDS contracts, and also include net interest margin securitizations and interest rate swaps that fall under derivative accounting standards requiring fair value accounting through the statement of operations. The Company does not typically terminate its credit derivative contracts, and there are no quoted prices for its instruments or for similar instruments. The Company determines the fair value of its credit derivative contracts primarily through modeling that uses various inputs to derive an estimate of the value of the Company's contracts in principal markets. Observable inputs other than quoted market prices exist; however, these inputs reflect contracts that do not contain terms and conditions similar to the credit derivative contracts issued by the Company. Therefore, the valuation of credit derivative contracts requires the use of models that contain significant, unobservable inputs. The Company accordingly believes the credit derivative valuations are in Level 3 in the fair value hierarchy discussed above.

        Inputs include expected contractual life and credit spreads, based on observable market indices and on recent pricing for similar contracts. Credit spreads capture the impact of recovery rates and performance of underlying assets, among other factors, on these contracts. The Company's pricing model takes into account not only how credit spreads on risks that it assumes affect pricing, but also how the Company's own credit spread affects the pricing of its deals. If credit spreads of the underlying obligations change, the fair value of the related credit derivative changes. Market liquidity could also impact valuations of the underlying obligations.

        The fair value of the Company's credit derivative contracts represents the difference between the present value of remaining expected net premiums the Company receives or pays for the credit protection and the estimated present value of premiums that a comparable credit-worthy financial guarantor would hypothetically charge or pay the Company for the same protection. The fair value of the Company's credit derivatives depends on a number of factors, including notional amount of the contract, expected term, credit spreads, changes in interest rates, the credit ratings of referenced entities, the Company's own credit risk and remaining contractual cash flows. The expected remaining contractual cash flows are the most readily observable inputs since they are based on the CDS contractual terms. These cash flows include net premiums and claims to be received or paid under the terms of the contract.

        Market conditions at December 31, 2010 were such that market prices of the Company's CDS contracts were not generally available. Since market prices were not available, the Company used proprietary valuation models that used both unobservable and observable market data inputs such as various market indices, credit spreads, the Company's own credit spread, and estimated contractual payments to estimate the fair value of its credit derivatives. These models are primarily developed internally based on market conventions for similar transactions.

        Management considers the non-standard terms of its credit derivative contracts in determining the fair value of these contracts. These terms differ from more standardized credit derivative contracts sold by companies outside the financial guaranty industry. The non-standard terms include the absence of collateral support agreements or immediate settlement provisions. In addition, the Company employs relatively high attachment points and does not exit derivatives it sells or purchases for credit protection purposes, except under specific circumstances such as novations upon exiting a line of business. Because of these terms and conditions, the fair value of the Company's credit derivatives may not reflect the same prices observed in an actively traded market of credit derivatives that do not contain terms and conditions similar to those observed in the financial guaranty market. The Company's models and the related assumptions are continuously reevaluated by management and enhanced, as appropriate, based upon improvements in modeling techniques and availability of more timely and relevant market information.

        Valuation models include management estimates and current market information. Management is also required to make assumptions on how the fair value of credit derivative instruments is affected by current market conditions. Management considers factors such as current prices charged for similar agreements, when available, performance of underlying assets, life of the instrument, and the nature and extent of activity in the financial guaranty credit derivative marketplace. The assumptions that management uses to determine the fair value may change in the future due to market conditions. Due to the inherent uncertainties of the assumptions used in the valuation models to determine the fair value of these credit derivative products, actual experience may differ from the estimates reflected in the Company's consolidated financial statements and the differences may be material.

Assumptions and Inputs

        Listed below are various inputs and assumptions that are key to the establishment of the Company's fair value for CDS contracts.

        The key assumptions used in the Company's internally developed model include the following:

  • How gross spread is calculated: Gross spread is the difference between the yield of a security paid by an issuer on an insured versus uninsured basis or, in the case of a CDS transaction, the difference between the yield and an index such as the LIBOR. Such pricing is well established by historical financial guaranty fees relative to capital market spreads as observed and executed in competitive markets, including in financial guaranty reinsurance and secondary market transactions.

    How gross spread is allocated: Gross spread on a financial guaranty accounted for as CDS is allocated among:

    1.
    the profit the originator, usually an investment bank, realizes for putting the deal together and funding the transaction ("bank profit");

    2.
    premiums paid to the Company for the Company's credit protection provided ("net spread"); and

    3.
    the cost of CDS protection purchased on the Company by the originator to hedge their counterparty credit risk exposure to the Company ("hedge cost").

    The weighted average life which is based on expected remaining contractual cash flows and debt service schedules, which are the most readily observable inputs since they are based on the CDS contractual terms.

        The premium the Company receives is referred to as the "net spread." The Company's own credit risk is factored into the determination of net spread based on the impact of changes in the quoted market price for credit protection bought on the Company, as reflected by quoted market prices on CDS referencing AGC or AGM. The cost to acquire CDS protection referencing AGC or AGM affects the amount of spread on CDS deals that the Company retains and, hence, their fair value. As the cost to acquire CDS protection referencing AGC or AGM increases, the amount of premium the Company retains on a deal generally decreases. As the cost to acquire CDS protection referencing AGC or AGM decreases, the amount of premium the Company retains on a deal generally increases. In the Company's valuation model, the premium the Company captures is not permitted to go below the minimum rate that the Company would currently charge to assume similar risks. This assumption can have the effect of mitigating the amount of unrealized gains that are recognized on certain CDS contracts.

        The Company determines the fair value of its CDS contracts by applying the difference between the current net spread and the contractual net spread for the remaining duration of each contract to the notional value of its CDS contracts. To the extent available, actual transactions executed in the market during the accounting period are used to validate the model results and to explain the correlation between various market indices and indicative CDS market prices.

        The Company's fair value model inputs are gross spread, credit spreads on risks assumed and credit spreads on the Company's name.

        Gross spread is an input into the Company's fair value model that is used to ultimately determine the net spread a comparable financial guarantor would charge the Company to transfer risk at the reporting date. The Company's estimate of the fair value represents the difference between the estimated present value of premiums that a comparable financial guarantor would accept to assume the risk from the Company on the current reporting date, on terms identical to the original contracts written by the Company and the contractual premium for each individual credit derivative contract. Gross spread was an observable input that the Company historically obtained for deals it had closed or bid on in the market place prior to the credit crisis. The Company uses these historical gross spreads as a reference point to estimate fair value in current reporting periods.

        The Company obtains credit spreads on risks assumed from market data sources published by third parties (e.g. dealer spread tables for the collateral similar to assets within the Company's transactions) as well as collateral- specific spreads provided by trustees or obtained from market sources. If observable market credit spreads are not available or reliable for the underlying reference obligations, then market indices are used that most closely resemble the underlying reference obligations, considering asset class, credit quality rating and maturity of the underlying reference obligations. As discussed previously, these indices are adjusted to reflect the non-standard terms of the Company's CDS contracts. Market sources determine credit spreads by reviewing new issuance pricing for specific asset classes and receiving price quotes from their trading desks for the specific asset in question. Management validates these quotes by cross-referencing quotes received from one market source against quotes received from another market source to ensure reasonableness. In addition, the Company compares the relative change in price quotes received from one quarter to another, with the relative change experienced by published market indices for a specific asset class. Collateral specific spreads obtained from third-party, independent market sources are un-published spread quotes from market participants or market traders who are not trustees. Management obtains this information as the result of direct communication with these sources as part of the valuation process.

        For credit spreads on the Company's name the Company obtains the quoted price of CDS contracts traded on AGC and AGM from market data sources published by third parties.

  • Example

        The following is an example of how changes in gross spreads, the Company's own credit spread and the cost to buy protection on the Company affect the amount of premium the Company can demand for its credit protection. The assumptions used in these examples are hypothetical amounts. Scenario 1 represents the market conditions in effect on the transaction date and Scenario 2 represents market conditions at a subsequent reporting date.

 
  Scenario 1   Scenario 2  
 
  bps   % of Total   bps   % of Total  

Original gross spread/cash bond price (in bps)

    185           500        

Bank profit (in bps)

    115     62 %   50     10 %

Hedge cost (in bps)

    30     16     440     88  

The Company premium received per annum (in bps)

    40     22     10     2  

        In Scenario 1, the gross spread is 185 basis points. The bank or deal originator captures 115 basis points of the original gross spread and hedges 10% of its exposure to AGC, when the CDS spread on AGC was 300 basis points (300 basis points × 10% = 30 basis points). Under this scenario the Company received premium of 40 basis points, or 22% of the gross spread.

        In Scenario 2, the gross spread is 500 basis points. The bank or deal originator captures 50 basis points of the original gross spread and hedges 25% of its exposure to AGC, when the CDS spread on AGC was 1,760 basis points (1,760 basis points × 25% = 440 basis points). Under this scenario the Company would receive premium of 10 basis points, or 2% of the gross spread.

        In this example, the contractual cash flows (the Company premium received per annum above) exceed the amount a market participant would require the Company to pay in today's market to accept its obligations under the CDS contract, thus resulting in an asset. This credit derivative asset is equal to the difference in premium rates discounted at the corresponding LIBOR over the weighted average remaining life of the contract. The expected future cash flows for the Company's credit derivatives were discounted at rates ranging from 0.26% to 4.19% at December 31, 2010. The expected future cash flows for the Company's credit derivatives were discounted at rates ranging from 0.25% to 4.5% at December 31, 2009.

        The Company corroborates the assumptions in its fair value model, including the amount of exposure to AGC and AGM hedged by its counterparties, with independent third parties each reporting period. The current level of AGC's and AGM's own credit spread has resulted in the bank or deal originator hedging a significant portion of its exposure to AGC and AGM. This reduces the amount of contractual cash flows AGC and AGM can capture for selling its protection.

        The amount of premium a financial guaranty insurance market participant can demand is inversely related to the cost of credit protection on the insurance company as measured by market credit spreads assuming all other assumptions remain constant. This is because the buyers of credit protection typically hedge a portion of their risk to the financial guarantor, due to the fact that contractual terms of financial guaranty insurance contracts typically do not require the posting of collateral by the guarantor. The widening of a financial guarantor's own credit spread increases the cost to buy credit protection on the guarantor, thereby reducing the amount of premium the guarantor can capture out of the gross spread on the deal. The extent of the hedge depends on the types of instruments insured and the current market conditions.

        A credit derivative asset on protection sold is the result of contractual cash flows on in-force deals in excess of what a hypothetical financial guarantor could receive if it sold protection on the same risk as of the current reporting date. If the Company were able to freely exchange these contracts (i.e., assuming its contracts did not contain proscriptions on transfer and there was a viable exchange market), it would be able to realize an asset representing the difference between the higher contractual premiums to which it is entitled and the current market premiums for a similar contract.

        Management does not believe there is an established market where financial guaranty insured credit derivatives are actively traded. The terms of the protection under an insured financial guaranty credit derivative do not, except for certain rare circumstances, allow the Company to exit its contracts. Management has determined that the exit market for the Company's credit derivatives is a hypothetical one based on its entry market. Management has tracked the historical pricing of the Company's deals to establish historical price points in the hypothetical market that are used in the fair value calculation.

        The following spread hierarchy is utilized in determining which source of gross spread to use, with the rule being to use CDS spreads where available. If not available, the Company either interpolates or extrapolates CDS spreads based on similar transactions or market indices.

  • Actual collateral specific credit spreads (if up-to-date and reliable market-based spreads are available, they are used).

    Credit spreads are interpolated based upon market indices or deals priced or closed during a specific quarter within a specific asset class and specific rating.

    Credit spreads provided by the counterparty of the CDS.

    Credit spreads are extrapolated based upon transactions of similar asset classes, similar ratings, and similar time to maturity.

        Over time the data inputs can change as new sources become available or existing sources are discontinued or are no longer considered to be the most appropriate. It is the Company's objective to move to higher levels on the hierarchy whenever possible, but it is sometimes necessary to move to lower priority inputs because of discontinued data sources or management's assessment that the higher priority inputs are no longer considered to be representative of market spreads for a given type of collateral. This can happen, for example, if transaction volume changes such that a previously used spread index is no longer viewed as being reflective of current market levels.


Information by Credit Spread Type

 
  As of
December 31,
 
 
  2010   2009  

Based on actual collateral specific spreads

    5 %   5 %

Based on market indices

    91 %   90 %

Provided by the CDS counterparty

    4 %   5 %
           
 

Total

    100 %   100 %
           

        The Company interpolates a curve based on the historical relationship between the premium the Company receives when a financial guaranty contract accounted for as CDS is closed to the daily closing price of the market index related to the specific asset class and rating of the deal. This curve indicates expected credit spreads at each indicative level on the related market index. For specific transactions where no price quotes are available and credit spreads need to be extrapolated, an alternative transaction for which the Company has received a spread quote from one of the first three sources within the Company's spread hierarchy is chosen. This alternative transaction will be within the same asset class, have similar underlying assets, similar credit ratings, and similar time to maturity. The Company then calculates the percentage of relative spread change quarter over quarter for the alternative transaction. This percentage change is then applied to the historical credit spread of the transaction for which no price quote was received in order to calculate the transactions' current spread. Counterparties determine credit spreads by reviewing new issuance pricing for specific asset classes and receiving price quotes from their trading desks for the specific asset in question. These quotes are validated by cross- referencing quotes received from one market source with those quotes received from another market source to ensure reasonableness. In addition, management compares the relative change experienced on published market indices for a specific asset class for reasonableness and accuracy. As discussed above the Company's model does not permit the premium to go below the minimum amount the Company would currently charge to assume similar rules. Given the current market conditions and the Company's own credit spreads, the majority of our CDS contracts are fair valued using this minimum premium.

Strengths and Weaknesses of Model

        The Company's credit derivative valuation model, like any financial model, has certain strengths and weaknesses.

        The primary strengths of the Company's CDS modeling techniques are:

  • The model takes into account the transaction structure and the key drivers of market value. The transaction structure includes par insured, weighted average life, level of subordination and composition of collateral.

    The model maximizes the use of market-driven inputs whenever they are available. The key inputs to the model are market-based spreads for the collateral, and the credit rating of referenced entities. These are viewed by the Company to be the key parameters that affect fair value of the transaction.

    The Company uses actual transactions, when available, to validate its model results and to explain the correlation between various market indices and indicative CDS market prices. Management first attempts to compare modeled values to premiums on deals the Company received on new deals written within the reporting period. If no new transactions were written for a particular asset type in the period or if the number of transactions is not reflective of a representative sample, management compares modeled results to premium bids offered by the Company to provide credit protection on new transactions within the reporting period, the premium the Company has received on historical transactions to provide credit protection in net tight and wide credit environments and/or the premium on transactions closed by other financial guaranty insurance companies during the reporting period.

    The model is a documented, consistent approach to valuing positions that minimizes subjectivity. The Company has developed a hierarchy for market-based spread inputs that helps mitigate the degree of subjectivity during periods of high illiquidity.

        The primary weaknesses of the Company's CDS modeling techniques are:

  • There is no exit market or actual exit transactions. Therefore the Company's exit market is a hypothetical one based on the Company's entry market.

    There is a very limited market in which to verify the fair values developed by the Company's model.

    At December 31, 2010 and December 31, 2009, the markets for the inputs to the model were highly illiquid, which impacts their reliability. However, the Company employs various procedures to corroborate the reasonableness of quotes received and calculated by the Company's internal valuation model, including comparing to other quotes received on similarly structured transactions, observed spreads on structured products with comparable underlying assets and, on a selective basis when possible, through second independent quotes on the same reference obligation.

    Due to the non-standard terms under which the Company enters into derivative contracts, the fair value of its credit derivatives may not reflect the same prices observed in an actively traded market of credit derivatives that do not contain terms and conditions similar to those observed in the financial guaranty market.

        Financial assets and liabilities are classified in their entirety based on the lowest level of input that is significant to the fair value measurement. As of December 31, 2010 and December 31, 2009 these contracts are classified as Level 3 in the fair value hierarchy since there is reliance on at least one unobservable input deemed significant to the valuation model, most significantly the Company's estimate of the value of the non-standard terms and conditions of its credit derivative contracts and of the Company's current credit standing.

Fair Value Option on Financial Guaranty VIEs' Assets and Liabilities

        The Company elected the Fair Value Option for financial guaranty VIEs' assets and liabilities upon consolidation of financial guaranty VIEs on January 1, 2010 under the new VIE consolidation accounting standard described in Note 9.

        The VIEs that are consolidated by the Company issued securities collateralized by HELOCs, first lien RMBS, Alt-A first and second lien RMBS, subprime automobile loans, and other loans and receivables. As the lowest level input that is significant to the fair value measurement of these securities in its entirety was a Level 3 input (i.e. unobservable), management classified all such securities as Level 3 in the fair value hierarchy. The securities were priced with the assistance of an independent third-party using a discounted cash flow approach and the third-party's proprietary pricing models. The models to price the VIEs' liabilities used, where appropriate, inputs such as estimated prepayment speeds; market values of the assets that collateralize the securities; estimated default rates (determined on the basis of an analysis of collateral attributes, recoveries from excess spread or salvage, historical collateral performance, borrower profiles and other features relevant to the evaluation of collateral credit quality); discount rates implied by market prices for similar securities; house price depreciation/appreciation rates based on macroeconomic forecasts and, for those liabilities insured by the Company, the benefit from the Company's insurance policy guaranteeing the timely payment of principal and interest for the VIE tranches insured by the Company, taking into account the Company's own credit rating.

        The Company is not primarily liable for the debt obligations issued by the VIEs. AGL's insurance company subsidiaries that insure the debt would only be required to make payments on these debt obligations in the event that the issuer of such debt obligations defaults on any principal or interest due. The Company's creditors do not have any rights with regard to the assets of the VIEs.

        Changes in fair value of the financial guaranty VIEs' assets and liabilities are included in net change in financial guaranty variable interest entities within the consolidated statement of operations. Except for credit impairment, the unrealized fair value adjustments related to the consolidated VIEs will reverse to zero over the terms of these financial instruments.

        The total unpaid principal balance for the VIEs' assets that were over 90 days or more past due was approximately $1,199.1 million. The change in the instrument-specific credit risk of the VIEs' assets for the year ended December 31, 2010 was a loss of approximately $1,065.6 million. The difference between the aggregate unpaid principal and aggregate fair value of the VIEs' liabilities was approximately $2,053.0 million at December 31, 2010.

Financial Instruments Carried at Fair Value

        Amounts recorded at fair value in the Company's financial statements are included in the tables below.


Fair Value Hierarchy of Financial Instruments
As of December 31, 2010

 
   
  Fair Value Hierarchy  
 
  Fair Value   Level 1   Level 2   Level 3  
 
  (in millions)
 
 
  (restated)
  (restated)
   
  (restated)
 

Assets:

                         

Investment portfolio, available-for-sale:

                         
 

Fixed maturity securities

                         
   

U.S. government and agencies

  $ 1,048.2   $   $ 1,048.2   $  
   

Obligations of state and political subdivisions

    4,959.9         4,959.9      
   

Corporate securities

    992.5         992.5      
   

Mortgage-backed securities:

                         
     

RMBS

    1,171.1         1,071.7     99.4  
     

CMBS

    379.1         379.1      
   

Asset-backed securities

    502.9         292.7     210.2  
   

Foreign government securities

    348.6         348.6      
                   
     

Total fixed maturity securities

    9,402.3         9,092.7     309.6  
 

Short-term investments

    1,055.6     277.4     778.2      
 

Other invested assets(1)

    33.3     0.2     21.4     11.7  
 

Credit derivative assets

    592.9             592.9  
 

Financial guaranty VIEs' assets, at fair value

    3,657.5             3,657.5  
 

Other assets

    44.4     25.7     18.7      
                   
   

Total assets carried at fair value

  $ 14,786.0   $ 303.3   $ 9,911.0   $ 4,571.7  
                   

Liabilities:

                         
 

Credit derivative liabilities

  $ 2,462.8   $   $   $ 2,462.8  
 

Financial guaranty VIEs' liabilities with recourse, at fair value

    3,030.9             3,030.9  
 

Financial guaranty VIEs' liabilities without recourse, at fair value

    1,337.2             1,337.2  
 

Other liabilities

    0.1         0.1      
                   
   

Total liabilities carried at fair value

  $ 6,831.0   $   $ 0.1   $ 6,830.9  
                   

Fair Value Hierarchy of Financial Instruments
As of December 31, 2009

 
   
  Fair Value Hierarchy  
 
  Fair Value   Level 1   Level 2   Level 3  
 
  (in millions)
 

Assets:

                         

Investment portfolio, available-for-sale:

                         
 

Fixed maturity securities

                         
   

U.S. government and agencies

  $ 1,037.6   $   $ 1,037.6   $  
   

Obligations of state and political subdivisions

    5,039.5         5,039.5      
   

Corporate securities

    625.5         625.5        
   

Mortgage-backed securities:

                       
     

RMBS

    1,464.6         1,464.6      
     

CMBS

    227.2         227.2      
   

Asset-backed securities

    388.9         185.0     203.9  
   

Foreign government securities

    356.6         356.6      
                   
     

Total fixed maturity securities

    9,139.9         8,936.0     203.9  
 

Short-term investments

    1,668.3     437.2     1,231.1      
 

Other invested assets(1)

    34.4     1.8     21.3     11.3  
 

Credit derivative assets

    492.5             492.5  
 

Other assets

    32.4     22.9     9.5      
                   
   

Total assets carried at fair value

  $ 11,367.5   $ 461.9   $ 10,197.9   $ 707.7  
                   

Liabilities:

                         
 

Credit derivative liabilities

  $ 2,034.6   $   $   $ 2,034.6  
 

Other liabilities

    0.1         0.1      
                   
   

Total liabilities carried at fair value

  $ 2,034.7   $   $ 0.1   $ 2,034.6  
                   

(1)
Includes mortgage loans that are recorded at fair value on a non-recurring basis. At December 31, 2010 and December 31, 2009, such investments were carried at their market value of $9.4 million and $11.1 million, respectively. The mortgage loans are classified as Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy as there are significant unobservable inputs used in the valuation of such loans. An indicative dealer quote is used to price the non-performing portion of these mortgage loans. The performing loans are valued using management's determination of future cash flows arising from these loans, discounted at the rate of return that would be required by a market participant. This rate of return is based on indicative dealer quotes.

Changes in Level 3 Fair Value Measurements

        The table below presents a rollforward of the Company's financial instruments whose fair value included significant unobservable inputs (Level 3) during the years ended December 31, 2010, 2009 and 2008.

Fair Value Level 3 Rollforward

 
   
   
   
  Year Ended December 31, 2010  
 
   
   
   
  Total Pre-tax
Realized/
Unrealized
Gains/
(Losses)(1)
Recorded in:
   
   
   
   
  Change in
Unrealized
Gains/
(Losses)
Related to
Financial
Instruments
Held at
December 31,
2010
 
 
  Fair
Value at
December 31,
2009
  Adoption
of New
Accounting
Standard
  Fair
Value at
January 1,
2010
  Purchases,
Issuances,
Settlements,
net
   
  Transfers
in and/or
out of
Level 3
  Fair
Value at
December 31,
2010
 
 
  Net
Income
(Loss)
  Other
Comprehensive
Income (Loss)
  Consolidations,
Deconsolidations,
net
 
 
  (in millions)
 
 
   
   
   
  (restated)
  (restated)
  (restated)
  (restated)
   
  (restated)
  (restated)
 

Fixed maturity securities

  $ 203.9   $   $ 203.9   $ (14.7) (2) $ (30.0 ) $ 91.2   $ (14.7 ) $ 73.9   $ 309.6   $ (30.0 )

Other invested assets

    0.2         0.2       (4)   (0.5 )   2.6             2.3      

Financial guaranty VIEs' assets. at fair value

        1,925.3     1,925.3     84.8   (3)       (282.4 )   1,929.8         3,657.5     243.2  

Credit derivative asset (liability), net(5)

    (1,542.1 )       (1,542.1 )   (1.6) (6)       (326.2 )           (1,869.9 )   (120.9 )

Financial guaranty VIEs' liabilities with recourse, at fair value

        (2,110.9 )   (2,110.9 )   (45.4) (3)       255.3     (1,129.9 )       (3,030.9 )   (323.8 )

Financial guaranty VIEs' liabilities without recourse, at fair value

        (226.0 )   (226.0 )   (35.4) (3)       91.7     (1,167.5 )       (1,337.2 )   (7.5 )

 

 
   
   
  Year Ended December 31, 2009  
 
   
   
  Total Pre-tax
Realized/
Unrealized
Gains/
(Losses)(1)
Recorded in:
   
   
   
  Change in
Unrealized
Gains/
(Losses)
Related to
Financial
Instruments
Held at
December 31,
2009
 
 
  Fair
Value at
December 31,
2008
   
  Purchases,
Issuances,
Settlements,
net
  Transfers
in and/or
out of
Level 3
  Fair
Value at
December 31,
2009
 
 
  AGMH
Acquisition
  Net
Income
(Loss)
  Other
Comprehensive
Income (Loss)
 
 
  (in millions)
 

Fixed maturity securities

  $   $ 219.4   $ (0.7) (2) $   $ (14.8 ) $   $ 203.9   $ (0.7 )

Other invested assets

            (4.3) (4)       4.5         0.2     (4.4 )

Credit derivative asset (liability), net(5)

    (586.8 )   (622.8 )   (174.3) (6)       (158.2 )       (1,542.1 )   (328.1 )

(1)
Realized and unrealized gains (losses) from changes in values of Level 3 financial instruments represent gains (losses) from changes in values of those financial instruments only for the periods in which the instruments were classified as Level 3.

(2)
Included in net realized investment gains (losses) and net investment income.

(3)
Included in net change in financial guaranty variable interest entities.

(4)
Recorded in other income.

(5)
Represents net position of credit derivatives. The consolidated balance sheet presents gross assets and liabilities based on net counterparty exposure.

(6)
Reported in net change in fair value of credit derivatives.

        The carrying amount and estimated fair value of the Company's financial instruments are presented in the following table:

Fair Value of Financial Instruments

 
  As of
December 31, 2010
  As of
December 31, 2009
 
 
  Carrying
Amount
  Estimated
Fair Value
  Carrying
Amount
  Estimated
Fair Value
 
 
  (in millions)
 
 
  (restated)
  (restated)
  (restated)
  (restated)
 

Assets:

                         
 

Fixed maturity securities

  $ 9,402.3   $ 9,402.3   $ 9,139.9   $ 9,139.9  
 

Short-term investments

    1,055.6     1,055.6     1,668.3     1,668.3  
 

Credit derivative assets

    592.9     592.9     492.5     492.5  
 

Other invested assets

    259.8     269.7     154.4     162.1  
 

Financial guaranty VIEs' assets

    3,657.5     3,657.5          
 

Other assets

    44.4     44.4     32.4     32.4  

Liabilities:

                         
 

Financial guaranty insurance contracts(1)

    4,777.6     5,582.8     5,987.8     7,036.4  
 

Long-term debt

    1,052.9     1,074.5     1,066.5     1,076.3  
 

Credit derivative liabilities

    2,462.8     2,462.8     2,034.6     2,034.6  
 

Financial guaranty VIEs' liabilities with recourse

    3,030.9     3,030.9     762.7     762.7  
 

Financial guaranty VIEs' liabilities without recourse

    1,337.2     1,337.2          
 

Other liabilities

    0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1  

(1)
Includes the balance sheet amounts related to financial guaranty insurance contract premiums and losses, net of reinsurance.