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Outstanding Exposure
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2010
Outstanding Exposure 
Outstanding Exposure

5. Outstanding Exposure

        The Company's insurance policies and credit derivative contracts are written in different forms, but collectively are considered financial guaranty contracts. They typically guarantee the scheduled payments of principal and interest ("Debt Service") on public finance and structured finance obligations. The Company seeks to limit its exposure to losses by underwriting obligations that are investment grade at inception, diversifying its portfolio and maintaining rigorous subordination or collateralization requirements on structured finance obligations. The Company also utilizes reinsurance by ceding business to third-party reinsurers. The Company provides financial guaranties with respect to debt obligations of special purpose entities, including VIEs. Based on accounting standards in effect during any given reporting period, some of these VIEs are consolidated as described in Note 9. Outstanding par and Debt Service amounts are presented below, including outstanding exposures on VIEs whether or not they are consolidated.


Debt Service Outstanding

 
  Gross Debt Service
Outstanding
  Net Debt Service
Outstanding
 
 
  December 31,
2010
  December 31,
2009
  December 31,
2010
  December 31,
2009
 
 
  (in millions)
 

Public finance

  $ 851,634   $ 880,933   $ 760,167   $ 761,301  

Structured finance

    178,348     214,104     166,976     196,964  
                   
 

Total

  $ 1,029,982   $ 1,095,037   $ 927,143   $ 958,265  
                   

Summary of Public and Structured Finance Insured Portfolio

 
  Gross Par Outstanding   Ceded Par Outstanding   Net Par Outstanding  
Sector
  December 31,
2010
  December 31,
2009
  December 31,
2010
  December 31,
2009
  December 31,
2010
  December 31,
2009
 
 
  (in millions)
 

Public finance:

                                     

U.S.:

                                     
 

General obligation

  $ 198,553   $ 201,264   $ 16,754   $ 22,880   $ 181,799   $ 178,384  
 

Tax backed

    92,246     94,825     8,843     11,796     83,403     83,029  
 

Municipal utilities

    75,588     77,872     5,522     8,294     70,066     69,578  
 

Transportation

    42,482     42,540     5,509     7,243     36,973     35,297  
 

Healthcare

    26,383     28,214     4,791     6,205     21,592     22,009  
 

Higher education

    16,584     16,399     897     1,267     15,687     15,132  
 

Housing

    7,316     9,623     754     1,099     6,562     8,524  
 

Infrastructure finance

    4,945     4,530     853     977     4,092     3,553  
 

Investor-owned utilities

    1,507     1,694     2     4     1,505     1,690  
 

Other public finance—U.S. 

    5,417     6,002     100     120     5,317     5,882  
                           
   

Total public finance—U.S. 

    471,021     482,963     44,025     59,885     426,996     423,078  

Non-U.S.:

                                     
 

Infrastructure finance

    18,780     19,404     2,807     3,060     15,973     16,344  
 

Regulated utilities

    18,427     18,979     4,449     5,128     13,978     13,851  
 

Pooled infrastructure

    3,656     4,684     224     280     3,432     4,404  
 

Other public finance—non-U.S. 

    9,582     10,485     2,222     2,309     7,360     8,176  
                           
   

Total public finance—non-U.S. 

    50,445     53,552     9,702     10,777     40,743     42,775  
                           

Total public finance obligations

  $ 521,466   $ 536,515   $ 53,727   $ 70,662   $ 467,739   $ 465,853  
                           

Structured finance:

                                     

U.S.:

                                     
 

Pooled corporate obligations

  $ 71,591   $ 82,622   $ 4,207   $ 8,289   $ 67,384   $ 74,333  
 

RMBS

    26,609     31,033     1,479     1,857     25,130     29,176  
 

Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities ("CMBS") and other commercial real estate related exposures

    7,137     7,463     53     53     7,084     7,410  
 

Financial products(1)

    6,831     10,251             6,831     10,251  
 

Consumer receivables

    6,343     9,314     270     441     6,073     8,873  
 

Commercial receivables

    2,142     2,485     3     3     2,139     2,482  
 

Structured credit

    1,794     2,738     65     131     1,729     2,607  
 

Insurance securitizations

    1,656     1,731     72     80     1,584     1,651  
 

Other structured finance—U.S. 

    1,980     2,754     1,178     1,236     802     1,518  
                           
   

Total structured finance—U.S. 

    126,083     150,391     7,327     12,090     118,756     138,301  

Non-U.S.:

                                     
 

Pooled corporate obligations

    25,087     27,743     2,477     3,046     22,610     24,697  
 

RMBS

    3,749     5,623     355     396     3,394     5,227  
 

Commercial receivables

    1,764     1,908     35     36     1,729     1,872  
 

Structured credit

    1,397     2,285     130     216     1,267     2,069  
 

Insurance securitizations

    979     995     15     14     964     981  
 

CMBS and other commercial real estate related exposures

    251     752             251     752  
 

Other structured finance—non-U.S. 

    472     717     51     47     421     670  
                           
   

Total structured finance—non-U.S. 

    33,699     40,023     3,063     3,755     30,636     36,268  
                           

Total structured finance obligations

  $ 159,782   $ 190,414   $ 10,390   $ 15,845   $ 149,392   $ 174,569  
                           

Total

  $ 681,248   $ 726,929   $ 64,117   $ 86,507   $ 617,131   $ 640,422  
                           

(1)
As discussed in Note 3, this represents the exposure to AGM's financial guaranties of GICs issued by AGMH's former financial products companies. This exposure is guaranteed by Dexia. The Company is also protected by guaranties issued by the French and Belgian governments.


Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating

 
  As of December 31, 2010  
 
  Public Finance
U.S.
  Public Finance
Non-U.S.
  Structured Finance
U.S
  Structured Finance
Non-U.S
  Total  
Rating Category(1)
  Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %  
 
  (dollars in millions)
 

Super senior

  $     % $ 1,420     3.5 % $ 21,837     18.4 % $ 7,882     25.7 % $ 31,139     5.0 %

AAA

    5,784     1.4     1,378     3.4     45,067     37.9     13,573     44.3     65,802     10.7  

AA

    161,906     37.9     1,330     3.3     17,355     14.6     1,969     6.4     182,560     29.6  

A

    214,199     50.2     12,482     30.6     6,396     5.4     1,873     6.1     234,950     38.1  

BBB

    41,948     9.8     22,338     54.8     7,543     6.4     4,045     13.2     75,874     12.3  

Below investment grade ("BIG")

    3,159     0.7     1,795     4.4     20,558     17.3     1,294     4.3     26,806     4.3  
                                           
 

Total net par outstanding

  $ 426,996     100.0 % $ 40,743     100.0 % $ 118,756     100.0 % $ 30,636     100.0 % $ 617,131     100.0 %
                                           

 

 
  As of December 31, 2009  
 
  Public Finance
U.S.
  Public Finance
Non-U.S.
  Structured Finance
U.S
  Structured Finance
Non-U.S
  Total  
Rating Category(1)
  Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %  
 
  (dollars in millions)
 

Super senior

  $ 25     0.0 % $ 2,316     5.4 % $ 28,272     20.4 % $ 12,740     35.1 % $ 43,353     6.8 %

AAA

    6,461     1.5     1,477     3.5     40,022     28.9     11,826     32.6     59,786     9.3  

AA

    164,986     39.0     2,105     4.9     26,799     19.4     2,969     8.2     196,859     30.7  

A

    208,771     49.4     13,542     31.7     8,305     6.0     2,582     7.1     233,200     36.4  

BBB

    39,709     9.4     22,691     53.0     14,514     10.5     5,145     14.2     82,059     12.8  

BIG

    3,126     0.7     644     1.5     20,389     14.8     1,006     2.8     25,165     4.0  
                                           
 

Total net par outstanding

  $ 423,078     100.0 % $ 42,775     100.0 % $ 138,301     100.0 % $ 36,268     100.0 % $ 640,422     100.0 %
                                           

(1)
Represents the Company's internal rating. The Company's ratings scale is similar to that used by the NRSROs; however, the ratings in the above table may not be the same as ratings assigned by any such rating agency. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where the Company's triple-A-rated exposure on its internal rating scale has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated triple-A that is subordinated to the Company's exposure or (2) the Company's exposure benefiting from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incur a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes the Company's attachment point to be materially above the triple-A attachment point.

        Actual maturities of insured obligations could differ from contractual maturities because borrowers have the right to call or prepay certain obligations with or without call or prepayment penalties. The expected maturities for structured finance obligations are, in general, considerably shorter than the contractual maturities for such obligations. For structured finance obligations, the full par outstanding for each insured risk is shown in the maturity category that corresponds to the final legal maturity of such risk:


Contractual Terms to Maturity of
Net Par Outstanding of Financial Guaranty Insured Obligations

 
  December 31, 2010  
Terms to Maturity
  Public
Finance
  Structured
Finance
  Total  
 
  (in millions)
 

0 to 5 years

  $ 91,210   $ 32,235   $ 123,445  

5 to 10 years

    97,662     38,986     136,648  

10 to 15 years

    90,520     21,491     112,011  

15 to 20 years

    69,851     2,491     72,342  

20 years and above

    118,496     54,189     172,685  
               
 

Total net par outstanding

  $ 467,739   $ 149,392   $ 617,131  
               

        In addition to amounts shown in the tables above, the Company had outstanding commitments to provide guaranties of $3.6 billion for structured finance and $1.2 billion for public finance commitments at December 31, 2010. The structured finance commitments include the unfunded component of and delayed draws on pooled corporate transactions. Public finance commitments typically relate to primary and secondary public finance debt issuances. The expiration dates for the public finance commitments range between January 1, 2011 through February 1, 2019, with $0.9 billion expiring prior to December 31, 2011. All the commitments are contingent on the satisfaction of all conditions set forth in them and may expire unused or be cancelled at the counterparty's request. Therefore, the total commitment amount does not necessarily reflect actual future guaranteed amounts.

        The Company seeks to maintain a diversified portfolio of insured public finance obligations designed to spread its risk across a number of geographic areas. The following table sets forth those states in which municipalities located therein issued an aggregate of 2% or more of the Company's net par amount outstanding of insured public finance securities:


Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 
  December 31, 2010  
 
  Number
of Risks
  Net
Par Amount
Outstanding
  Percent of
Total Net
Par Amount
Outstanding
  Ceded
Par Amount
Outstanding
 
 
  (dollars in millions)
 

U.S.:

                         

U.S. Public finance:

                         
 

California

    1,638   $ 59,699     9.7 % $ 6,788  
 

New York

    1,054     35,397     5.7     4,758  
 

Texas

    1,317     31,629     5.1     2,139  
 

Pennsylvania

    1,180     31,162     5.0     2,083  
 

Florida

    514     26,759     4.3     2,177  
 

Illinois

    1,046     26,077     4.2     3,426  
 

New Jersey

    824     18,073     2.9     3,190  
 

Michigan

    801     16,737     2.7     1,237  
 

Washington

    383     12,568     2.0     1,886  
 

Massachusetts

    343     12,473     2.0     2,379  
 

Other states

    5,834     156,422     25.5     13,962  
                   
   

Total U.S. Public finance

    14,934     426,996     69.1     44,025  
 

Structured finance (multiple states)

    1,373     118,756     19.3     7,327  
                   
   

Total U.S. 

    16,307     545,752     88.4     51,352  

Non-U.S.:

                         
 

United Kingdom

    142     27,058     4.4     5,455  
 

Australia

    42     9,224     1.5     1,484  
 

Canada

    9     4,486     0.7     577  
 

France

    15     2,555     0.4     911  
 

Italy

    10     2,021     0.3     735  
 

Other

    151     26,035     4.3     3,603  
                   
     

Total non-U.S. 

    369     71,379     11.6     12,765  
                   

Total

    16,676   $ 617,131     100.0 % $ 64,117  
                   

        As of December 31, 2010 and December 31, 2009, the Company's net mortgage guaranty insurance in force (representing the current principal balance of all mortgage loans currently reinsured) was approximately $0.3 billion and $0.4 billion, respectively, and net risk in force was approximately $0.3 billion and $0.4 billion, respectively. These amounts are not included in the above table.


Significant Risk Management Activities

        The Risk Oversight and Audit Committees of the Board of Directors of AGL oversee the Company's risk management policies and procedures. With input from the board committees, specific risk policies and limits are set by the Portfolio Risk Management Committee, which includes members of senior management and senior Credit and Surveillance officers.

        Risk Management and Surveillance personnel are responsible for monitoring and reporting on all transactions in the insured portfolio, including exposures in both financial guaranty direct and financial guaranty reinsurance segments. The primary objective of the surveillance process is to monitor trends and changes in transaction credit quality, detect any deterioration in credit quality, and recommend to management such remedial actions as may be necessary or appropriate. All transactions in the insured portfolio are assigned internal credit ratings, and Surveillance personnel are responsible for recommending adjustments to those ratings to reflect changes in transaction credit quality. Risk Management and Surveillance personnel are also responsible for managing work-out and loss situations when necessary.

        Work-out personnel are responsible for managing work-out and loss mitigation situations. They develop strategies designed to enhance the ability of the Company to enforce its contractual rights and remedies and to mitigate its losses, engage in negotiation discussions with transaction participants and, when necessary, manage (along with legal personnel) the Company's litigation proceedings.

        Since the onset of the financial crisis, the Company has shifted personnel to loss mitigation and work-out activities and hired new personnel to augment its efforts. Although the Company's loss mitigation efforts may extend to any transaction it has identified as having loss potential, much of the recent activity has been focused on RMBS.

        Generally, when mortgage loans are transferred into a securitization, the loan originator(s) and/or sponsor(s) provide representations and warranties ("R&W"), that the loans meet certain characteristics, and a breach of such R&W often requires that the loan be repurchased from the securitization. In many of the transactions the Company insures, it is in a position to enforce these requirements. The Company uses internal resources as well as third party forensic underwriting firms and legal firms to pursue breaches of R&W. If a provider of R&W refuses to honor its repurchase obligations, the Company may choose to initiate litigation. See "Recovery Litigation" in Note 6 below.

        The quality of servicing of the mortgage loans underlying an RMBS transaction influences collateral performance and ultimately the amount (if any) of the Company's insured losses. The Company has established a group to mitigate RMBS losses by influencing mortgage servicing, including, if possible, causing the transfer of servicing or establishing special servicing.

        In the fall of 2010, several large RMBS servicers suspended foreclosures because of allegations of a widespread failure to comply with foreclosure procedures and faulty loan documentation. These issues are being investigated by various state attorney general offices throughout the U.S. The suspension of foreclosures and subsequent investigation will lead to additional servicing costs and expenses, including without limitation, increased advances by the servicers for principal and interest, taxes, insurance and legal costs. The Company is increasing its monitoring efforts to ensure that the servicers comply with their obligations under servicing contracts, including bearing the losses and expenses incurred as a result of this issue. These same foreclosure issues are expected to impact the timing of losses to RMBS transactions that the Company has insured, which may impact the speed at which various classes of RMBS securities amortize, and so could impact the size of losses ultimately paid by the Company. The Company expects these issues to take some time to resolve.

        The Company may also employ other strategies as appropriate to avoid or mitigate losses in U.S. RMBS or other areas. For example, the Company may pursue litigation or enter into other arrangements to alleviate all or a portion of certain risks.

Surveillance Categories

        The Company segregates its insured portfolio into investment grade and BIG surveillance categories to facilitate the appropriate allocation of resources to monitoring and loss mitigation efforts and to aid in establishing the appropriate cycle for periodic review for each exposure. BIG exposures include all exposures with internal credit ratings below BBB-. The Company's internal credit ratings are based on the Company's internal assessment of the likelihood of default. The Company's internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by the rating agencies and are generally reflective of an approach similar to that employed by the rating agencies.

        The Company monitors its investment grade credits to determine whether any new credits need to be internally downgraded to BIG. The Company refreshes its internal credit ratings on individual credits in quarterly, semi-annual or annual cycles based on the Company's view of the credit's quality, loss potential, volatility and sector. Ratings on credits in sectors identified as under the most stress or with the most potential volatility are reviewed every quarter. The Company's insured credit ratings on assumed credits are based in large part on the ceding company's credit rating, although, to the extent information is available, the Company will conduct an independent review of low rated credits or credits in volatile sectors. For example the Company models all assumed RMBS credits with ceded par above $1 million, as well as certain RMBS credits below that amount.

        Credits identified as BIG are subjected to further review to determine the probability of a loss (see Note 6 "Loss estimation process"). Surveillance personnel then assign each BIG transaction to the appropriate BIG surveillance category based upon whether a lifetime loss is expected and whether a claim has been paid. The Company expects "lifetime losses" on a transaction when the Company believes there is more than a 50% chance that, on a present value basis, it will pay more claims over the life of that transaction than it will ultimately have been reimbursed. For surveillance purposes, the Company calculates present value using a constant discount rate of 5%. (A risk free rate is used for recording of reserves for financial statement purposes.) A "liquidity claim" is a claim that the Company expects to be reimbursed within one year.

        Intense monitoring and intervention is employed for all BIG surveillance categories, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly:

  • BIG Category 1: Below investment grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make lifetime losses possible, but for which none are currently expected. Transactions on which claims have been paid but are expected to be fully reimbursed (other than investment grade transactions on which only liquidity claims have been paid) are in this category.

    BIG Category 2: Below investment grade transactions for which lifetime losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims) have yet been paid.

    BIG Category 3: Below investment grade transactions for which lifetime losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid. Transactions remain in this category when claims have been paid and only a recoverable remains.

        In 2010 the Company revised the definitions of the three BIG surveillance categories to more closely track the Company's view of whether a transaction is expected to experience a loss, without regard to whether the probability weighted expected loss exceeded the unearned premium reserve. The revisions do not impact whether a transaction would be considered BIG or whether reserves are established for a transaction or the amount of any such reserves, but only the distribution within the BIG surveillance categories. While the revisions resulted in a number of transactions moving between BIG categories, the revisions had a relatively small impact on the totals in each category.


Financial Guaranty Exposures
(Insurance and Credit Derivative Form)

 
  December 31, 2010  
 
  BIG Net Par Outstanding    
   
 
 
  Net Par
Outstanding
  BIG Net Par as a
% of Net Par
Outstanding
 
 
  BIG 1   BIG 2   BIG 3   Total BIG  
 
  (in millions)
   
 
 
  (restated)
  (restated)
   
   
   
   
 

First lien U.S. RMBS:

                                     
 

Prime first lien

  $ 82   $ 542   $   $ 624   $ 849     0.1 %
 

Alt-A first lien

    976     3,108     573     4,657     6,134     0.8  
 

Alt-A option ARM

    33     2,186     640     2,859     3,214     0.5  
 

Subprime (including net interest margin securities)

    729     2,248     106     3,083     9,039     0.4  

Second lien U.S. RMBS:

                                     
 

Closed end second lien

    63     444     624     1,131     1,164     0.2  
 

Home equity lines of credit ("HELOCs")

    369         3,632     4,001     4,730     0.6  
                           
   

Total U.S. RMBS

    2,252     8,528     5,575     16,355     25,130     2.6  

Other structured finance

    2,687     363     2,447     5,497     124,262     0.9  

Public finance

    3,752     283     919     4,954     467,739     0.8  
                           
     

Total

  $ 8,691   $ 9,174   $ 8,941   $ 26,806   $ 617,131     4.3 %
                           

 

 
  December 31, 2009  
 
  BIG Net Par Outstanding    
   
 
 
  Net Par
Outstanding
  BIG Net Par as a
% of Net Par
Outstanding
 
 
  BIG 1   BIG 2   BIG 3   Total BIG  
 
  (in millions)
   
 

First lien U.S. RMBS:

                                     
 

Prime first lien

  $ 564   $ 51   $   $ 615   $ 985     0.1 %
 

Alt-A first lien

    752     3,698     173     4,623     7,108     0.7  
 

Alt-A option ARM

    629     2,811         3,440     3,882     0.6  
 

Subprime (including net interest margin securities)

    985     1,648     55     2,688     9,956     0.4  

Second lien U.S. RMBS:

                                     
 

Closed end second lien

    123     628     509     1,260     1,305     0.2  
 

HELOCs

    13     113     4,372     4,498     5,940     0.7  
                           
   

Total U.S. RMBS

    3,066     8,949     5,109     17,124     29,176     2.7  

Other structured finance

    1,211     967     2,093     4,271     145,393     0.7  

Public finance

    2,361     723     687     3,771     465,853     0.6  
                           
     

Total

  $ 6,638   $ 10,639   $ 7,889   $ 25,166   $ 640,422     4.0 %
                           

Net Par Outstanding for Below Investment Grade Credits

 
  As of December 31, 2010  
Description
  Net Par
Outstanding
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance
  % of Total
Net Par
Outstanding
  Net Par
Outstanding
Credit
Derivatives
  % of Total
Net Par
Outstanding
  Net Par
Outstanding
Total
  % of Total
Net Par
Outstanding
  Number of
Credits
in Category
 
 
  (dollars in millions)
 
 
  (restated)
   
   
   
  (restated)
   
  (restated)
 

BIG:

                                           
 

Category 1

  $ 5,450     0.9 % $ 3,241     0.5 % $ 8,691     1.4 %   150  
 

Category 2

    5,717     0.9     3,457     0.6     9,174     1.5     148  
 

Category 3

    7,281     1.1     1,660     0.3     8,941     1.4     127  
                               

Total BIG

  $ 18,448     2.9 % $ 8,358     1.4 % $ 26,806     4.3 %   425  
                               

 

 
  As of December 31, 2009  
Description
  Net Par
Outstanding
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance
  % of Total
Net Par
Outstanding
  Net Par
Outstanding
Credit
Derivatives
  % of Total
Net Par
Outstanding
  Net Par
Outstanding
Total
  % of Total
Net Par
Outstanding
  Number of
Credits
in Category
 
 
  (dollars in millions)
 

BIG:

                                           
 

Category 1

  $ 4,230     0.7 % $ 2,408     0.4 % $ 6,638     1.1 %   112  
 

Category 2

    6,805     1.1     3,834     0.6     10,639     1.7     208  
 

Category 3

    6,672     1.0     1,217     0.2     7,889     1.2     44  
                               

Total BIG

  $ 17,707     2.8 % $ 7,459     1.2 % $ 25,166     4.0 %   364