XML 63 R11.htm IDEA: XBRL DOCUMENT  v2.3.0.11
Outstanding Exposure
6 Months Ended
Jun. 30, 2011
Outstanding Exposure  
Outstanding Exposure

3. Outstanding Exposure

        The Company's insurance policies and credit derivative contracts are written in different forms, but collectively are considered financial guaranty contracts. They typically guarantee the scheduled payments of principal and interest ("Debt Service") on public finance and structured finance obligations. The Company seeks to limit its exposure to losses by underwriting obligations that are investment grade at inception, diversifying its portfolio and maintaining rigorous subordination or collateralization requirements on structured finance obligations. The Company also has utilized reinsurance by ceding business to third party reinsurers. The Company provides financial guaranties with respect to debt obligations of special purpose entities, including VIEs. Based on accounting standards in effect during any given reporting period, some of these VIEs are consolidated as described in Note 7. The outstanding par and Debt Service amounts presented below include outstanding exposures on VIEs, whether or not they are consolidated.


Debt Service Outstanding

 
  Gross Debt Service Outstanding   Net Debt Service Outstanding  
 
  June 30,
2011
  December 31,
2010
  June 30,
2011
  December 31,
2010
 
 
  (in millions)
 

Public finance

  $ 826,907   $ 851,634   $ 739,493   $ 760,167  

Structured finance

    157,646     178,348     147,275     166,976  
                   
 

Total

  $ 984,553   $ 1,029,982   $ 886,768   $ 927,143  
                   


Financial Guaranty Net Par Outstanding by Internal Rating

 
  As of June 30, 2011  
 
  Public Finance
U.S.
  Public Finance
Non-U.S.
  Structured Finance
U.S
  Structured Finance
Non-U.S
  Total  
Rating Category
  Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %  
 
  (dollars in millions)
 

Super senior

  $     % $ 1,507     3.7 % $ 19,957     19.2 % $ 7,683     26.8 % $ 29,147     5.0 %

AAA

    5,078     1.2     1,379     3.3     38,175     36.7     12,722     44.3     57,354     9.8  

AA

    151,571     36.7     1,145     2.8     14,236     13.7     1,606     5.6     168,558     28.7  

A

    211,736     51.2     12,517     30.4     5,721     5.5     1,610     5.6     231,584     39.4  

BBB

    41,939     10.2     22,318     54.1     5,248     5.0     3,273     11.3     72,778     12.4  

BIG

    2,950     0.7     2,360     5.7     20,641     19.9     1,824     6.4     27,775     4.7  
                                           
 

Total net par outstanding

  $ 413,274     100.0 % $ 41,226     100.0 % $ 103,978     100.0 % $ 28,718     100.0 % $ 587,196     100.0 %
                                           

 

 
  As of December 31, 2010  
 
  Public Finance
U.S.
  Public Finance
Non-U.S.
  Structured Finance
U.S
  Structured Finance
Non-U.S
  Total  
Rating Category
  Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %  
 
  (dollars in millions)
 

Super senior

  $     % $ 1,420     3.5 % $ 21,837     18.4 % $ 7,882     25.7 % $ 31,139     5.0 %

AAA

    5,784     1.4     1,378     3.4     45,067     37.9     13,573     44.3     65,802     10.7  

AA

    161,906     37.9     1,330     3.3     17,355     14.6     1,969     6.4     182,560     29.6  

A

    214,199     50.2     12,482     30.6     6,396     5.4     1,873     6.1     234,950     38.1  

BBB

    41,948     9.8     22,338     54.8     7,543     6.4     4,045     13.2     75,874     12.3  

BIG

    3,159     0.7     1,795     4.4     20,558     17.3     1,294     4.3     26,806     4.3  
                                           
 

Total net par outstanding

  $ 426,996     100.0 % $ 40,743     100.0 % $ 118,756     100.0 % $ 30,636     100.0 % $ 617,131     100.0 %
                                           

        In addition to amounts shown in the tables above, the Company had outstanding commitments to provide guaranties of $3.9 billion for structured finance and $1.7 billion for public finance commitments at June 30, 2011. The structured finance commitments include the unfunded component of pooled corporate and other transactions. Public finance commitments typically relate to primary and secondary public finance debt issuances. The expiration dates for the public finance commitments range between July 1, 2011 and February 1, 2019, with $1.3 billion expiring prior to December 31, 2011. All the commitments are contingent on the satisfaction of all conditions set forth in them and may expire unused or be cancelled at the counterparty's request. Therefore, the total commitment amount does not necessarily reflect actual future guaranteed amounts.

Surveillance Categories

        The Company segregates its insured portfolio into investment grade and BIG surveillance categories to facilitate the appropriate allocation of resources to monitoring and loss mitigation efforts and to aid in establishing the appropriate cycle for periodic review for each exposure. BIG exposures include all exposures with internal credit ratings below BBB-. The Company's internal credit ratings are based on internal assessment of the likelihood of default. Internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by the rating agencies and are generally reflective of an approach similar to that employed by the rating agencies.

        The Company monitors its investment grade credits to determine whether any new credits need to be internally downgraded to BIG. The Company refreshes its internal credit ratings on individual credits in quarterly, semi-annual or annual cycles based on the Company's view of the credit's quality, loss potential, volatility and sector. Ratings on credits in sectors identified as under the most stress or with the most potential volatility are reviewed every quarter. The Company's insured credit ratings on assumed credits are based on the Company's independent reviews of low-rated credits or credits in volatile sectors, unless such information is not available, in which case, the ceding company's credit rating of the transactions are used. For example, the Company models all assumed RMBS credits with par above $1 million, as well as certain RMBS credits below that amount.

        Credits identified as BIG are subjected to further review to determine the probability of a loss (see Note 4 "Loss estimation process"). Surveillance personnel then assign each BIG transaction to the appropriate BIG surveillance category based upon whether a lifetime loss is expected and whether a claim has been paid. The Company expects "lifetime losses" on a transaction when the Company believes there is more than a 50% chance that, on a present value basis, it will pay more claims over the life of that transaction than it will ultimately have been reimbursed. For surveillance purposes, the Company calculates present value using a constant discount rate of 5%. (A risk-free rate is used for recording of reserves for financial statement purposes.) A "liquidity claim" is a claim that the Company expects to be reimbursed within one year.

        Intense monitoring and intervention is employed for all BIG surveillance categories, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. The three BIG categories are:

  • BIG Category 1: Below-investment-grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make lifetime losses possible, but for which none are currently expected. Transactions on which claims have been paid but are expected to be fully reimbursed (other than investment grade transactions on which only liquidity claims have been paid) are in this category.

    BIG Category 2: Below-investment-grade transactions for which lifetime losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims) have yet been paid.

    BIG Category 3: Below-investment-grade transactions for which lifetime losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid. Transactions remain in this category when claims have been paid and only a recoverable remains.

        Included in the BIG first lien RMBS exposures below is $1.9 billion of net par outstanding related to transactions covered by the Bank of America Agreement, which represents 17% of the U.S. RMBS first lien net par outstanding as of June 30, 2011. Under the Bank of America Agreement, 80% of first lien claims paid by Assured Guaranty will be reimbursed, until such time as losses on the collateral underlying the RMBS on which Assured Guaranty is paying claims reach $6.6 billion.


Financial Guaranty Exposures
(Insurance and Credit Derivative Form)

 
  June 30, 2011  
 
  BIG Net Par Outstanding    
   
 
 
  Net Par
Outstanding
  BIG Net Par as a %
of Net Par
Outstanding
 
 
  BIG 1   BIG 2   BIG 3   Total BIG  
 
  (in millions)
   
 

First lien U.S. RMBS:

                                     
 

Prime first lien

  $ 26   $ 582   $   $ 608   $ 786     0.1 %
 

Alt-A first lien

    1,127     2,397     1,487     5,011     5,731     0.9  
 

Option ARM

    0     1,302     1,260     2,562     2,809     0.4  
 

Subprime (including net interest margin securities)

    334     2,468     212     3,014     8,572     0.5  

Second lien U.S. RMBS:

                                     
 

Closed-end second lien

    153     438     467     1,058     1,087     0.2  
 

Home equity lines of credit ("HELOCs")

    470         3,134     3,604     4,281     0.6  
                           
   

Total U.S. RMBS

    2,110     7,187     6,560     15,857     23,266     2.7  

Other structured finance

    3,756     424     2,428     6,608     109,430     1.1  

Public finance

    4,241     204     865     5,310     454,500     0.9  
                           
     

Total

  $ 10,107   $ 7,815   $ 9,853   $ 27,775   $ 587,196     4.7 %
                           

 

 
  December 31, 2010  
 
  BIG Net Par Outstanding    
   
 
 
  Net Par
Outstanding
  BIG Net Par as a %
of Net Par
Outstanding
 
 
  BIG 1   BIG 2   BIG 3   Total BIG  
 
  (in millions)
   
 

First lien U.S. RMBS:

                                     
 

Prime first lien

  $ 82   $ 542   $   $ 624   $ 849     0.1 %
 

Alt-A first lien

    976     3,108     573     4,657     6,134     0.8  
 

Option ARM

    33     2,186     640     2,859     3,214     0.5  
 

Subprime (including net interest margin securities)

    729     2,248     106     3,083     9,039     0.4  

Second lien U.S. RMBS:

                                     
 

Closed-end second lien

    63     444     624     1,131     1,164     0.2  
 

HELOCs

    369         3,632     4,001     4,730     0.6  
                           
   

Total U.S. RMBS

    2,252     8,528     5,575     16,355     25,130     2.6  

Other structured finance

    2,758     292     2,447     5,497     124,262     0.9  

Public finance

    3,752     283     919     4,954     467,739     0.8  
                           
     

Total

  $ 8,762   $ 9,103   $ 8,941   $ 26,806   $ 617,131     4.3 %
                           


By Category Below-Investment-Grade Credits

 
  As of June 30, 2011  
 
  Net Par Outstanding   Number of Risks(3)  
Description
  Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
  Credit
Derivative(2)
  Total   Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
  Credit
Derivative(2)
  Total  
 
  (dollars in millions)
 

BIG:

                                     
 

Category 1

  $ 6,877   $ 3,230   $ 10,107     151     30     181  
 

Category 2

    5,038     2,777     7,815     84     44     128  
 

Category 3

    7,424     2,429     9,853     129     23     152  
                           

Total BIG

  $ 19,339   $ 8,436   $ 27,775     364     97     461  
                           

 

 
  As of December 31, 2010  
 
  Net Par Outstanding   Number of Risks(3)  
Description
  Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
  Credit
Derivative(2)
  Total   Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
  Credit
Derivative(2)
  Total  
 
  (dollars in millions)
 

BIG:

                                     
 

Category 1

  $ 5,521   $ 3,241   $ 8,762     120     31     151  
 

Category 2

    5,646     3,457     9,103     97     50     147  
 

Category 3

    7,281     1,660     8,941     115     13     128  
                           

Total BIG

  $ 18,448   $ 8,358   $ 26,806     332     94     426  
                           

(1)
Represents contracts accounted for as financial guaranty insurance. See Note 4.

(2)
Represents contracts accounted for as credit derivatives and carried at fair value on the consolidated balance sheets. See Note 6.

(3)
A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments.