-----BEGIN PRIVACY-ENHANCED MESSAGE----- Proc-Type: 2001,MIC-CLEAR Originator-Name: webmaster@www.sec.gov Originator-Key-Asymmetric: MFgwCgYEVQgBAQICAf8DSgAwRwJAW2sNKK9AVtBzYZmr6aGjlWyK3XmZv3dTINen TWSM7vrzLADbmYQaionwg5sDW3P6oaM5D3tdezXMm7z1T+B+twIDAQAB MIC-Info: RSA-MD5,RSA, QBZdPV3lZZ+j3AixUESC3Ap/LvAyVrwrkyF/WB9VtPHl3KK5AyvgWFWf5uSC7e+U 09RMMmvkH6Zk1DdP9hsOUg== 0001047469-04-025227.txt : 20040804 0001047469-04-025227.hdr.sgml : 20040804 20040803213336 ACCESSION NUMBER: 0001047469-04-025227 CONFORMED SUBMISSION TYPE: 8-K PUBLIC DOCUMENT COUNT: 4 CONFORMED PERIOD OF REPORT: 20040803 ITEM INFORMATION: ITEM INFORMATION: Financial statements and exhibits FILED AS OF DATE: 20040804 FILER: COMPANY DATA: COMPANY CONFORMED NAME: ASSURED GUARANTY LTD CENTRAL INDEX KEY: 0001273813 STANDARD INDUSTRIAL CLASSIFICATION: SURETY INSURANCE [6351] FILING VALUES: FORM TYPE: 8-K SEC ACT: 1934 Act SEC FILE NUMBER: 001-32141 FILM NUMBER: 04949882 MAIL ADDRESS: STREET 1: 30 WOOD BOURNE AVE CITY: HAMILTON BERMUDA STATE: D0 ZIP: 0000 FORMER COMPANY: FORMER CONFORMED NAME: AGR LTD DATE OF NAME CHANGE: 20040122 FORMER COMPANY: FORMER CONFORMED NAME: AGC HOLDINGS LTD DATE OF NAME CHANGE: 20031218 8-K 1 a2141373z8-k.htm 8-K
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UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, DC 20549



FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant To Section 13 or 15 (d) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported)—August 3, 2004

ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)




Bermuda
(State or other jurisdiction of
incorporation or organization)
  001-32141
(Commission File Number)
  Not Applicable
(I.R.S. Employer of Incorporation
Identification No.)



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
30 Woodbourne Avenue
Hamilton HM 08 Bermuda
(Address of principal executive offices)

Registrant's telephone number, including area code: (441) 296-4004

Not applicable
(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)





Item 7.    Financial Statements, Pro Forma Financial Information and Exhibits.

    (c)
    Exhibits

Exhibit
Number

  Description

99.1

 

Press release, dated August 3, 2004, reporting second quarter results

99.2

 

Second quarter 2004 Operating Supplement


Item 12.    Results of Operations and Financial Condition

        On August 3, 2004, Assured Guaranty Ltd. issued a press release reporting its second quarter 2004 results and the availability of its second quarter operating supplement. The press release and the operating supplement are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are hereby incorporated herein by reference.

        In accordance with general instruction B.6 of Form 8-K, the information in this report, including exhibits, is furnished pursuant to Item 12 and shall not be deemed "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or otherwise subject to the liability of that section.

2



SIGNATURES

        Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.

    ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

 

 

By:

/s/  
ROBERT B. MILLS      
Robert B. Mills
Chief Financial Officer

DATE: August 3, 2004

3



EXHIBIT INDEX

Number

  Description
  Method of Filing

99.1

 

Press release, dated August 3, 2004, reporting second quarter results

 

Furnished herewith

99.2

 

Second quarter 2004 Operating Supplement

 

Furnished herewith

4




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SIGNATURES
EXHIBIT INDEX
EX-99.1 2 a2141373zex-99_1.htm EXHIBIT 99.1
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Exhibit 99.1

LOGO   Assured Guaranty Ltd.
30 Woodbourne Avenue—5th Floor
Hamilton Bermuda HM 08
441-299-9375
www.assuredguaranty.com
   


Assured Guaranty Reports Second Quarter 2004 Earnings of $0.57 Per Share

Hamilton, Bermuda—August 3, 2004.    Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO) announced net income of $43.1 million, or $0.57 per diluted share, for the second quarter ended June 30, 2004, an increase of 1% compared with $42.7 million, or $0.57 per diluted share, earned in the second quarter of 2003. Operating income, which we define as net income excluding after-tax net realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments, decreased from $33.2 million in the second quarter of 2003 to $27.9 million, or $0.37 per diluted share, and included a $9.6 million or $0.13 per share after-tax expense for the initial public offering (IPO) related accelerated vesting and replacement of stock awards. Management, investors and analysts use operating income to evaluate our results of operations, as this measure highlights the underlying profitability of our business. The quarter also included a net loss of $2.4 million that affected net income, or $0.03 per diluted share, and an operating loss of $5.9 million in operating income, or $0.08 per diluted share, from our other segment, which consists of transactions and lines of business that we exited as part of our IPO that closed on April 28, 2004.

Analysis of Net Income

($ in millions)

  Second
Quarter
2004

  Second
Quarter
2003

  %
Change

 
Net income   $ 43.1   $ 42.7   1 %
  After-tax realized gains on investments     6.3     1.8   250  
  After-tax unrealized gains on derivatives     9.0     7.7   17  
   
 
     
Operating income(1)   $ 27.9   $ 33.2   (16 )%
  After-tax incentive based stock compensation expense     9.6       NMF  
  After-tax other segment-related operating loss     5.9     4.9   20  
   
 
     
    $ 43.3   $ 38.1   14 %

NMF = not meaningful

        "Assured Guaranty achieved several major accomplishments in the second quarter of 2004," stated Dominic Frederico, Chief Executive Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. "Our IPO was a major undertaking and took a significant amount of management time and attention during the quarter. After the IPO, our team has quickly moved back into full-time marketing and underwriting and produced strong new business production in our financial guaranty direct segment results compared to the first quarter of the year."

1



Analysis of Present Value of Gross Financial Guaranty Premiums Written ("PVP")(2)

($ in millions)

  Second
Quarter
2004

  Second
Quarter
2003

  %
Change

 
Financial guaranty direct   $ 14.4   $ 15.4   (6 )%
Financial guaranty reinsurance(3)     39.3     23.8   65  
   
 
     
PVP   $ 53.6   $ 39.3   36 %

        The present value of gross financial guaranty premiums written ("PVP") in the quarter was $53.6 million, compared with $39.3 million in the second quarter of 2003. Management, equity analysts and investors use this non-GAAP measure to evaluate the value of new financial guaranty business production, as the GAAP gross premiums written measure does not reflect the present value of installment premiums on new contracts underwritten in a reporting period. See "Selected Financial Highlights" for a reconciliation of PVP to gross premiums written.

        Financial guaranty direct PVP totaled $14.4 million, down 6% over the second quarter of 2003 but up 82% from the $7.9 million generated in the first quarter of 2004. Michael Schozer, President of Assured Guaranty Corp. commented, "Second quarter production was good, given the limited time frame for marketing after the IPO. We see expanded opportunities in the marketplace compared to last year, when Assured Guaranty principally guaranteed transactions in the mortgage-backed and synthetic CDO markets, which have both slowed down considerably in 2004. For instance, 40% of second quarter 2003 PVP was in the synthetic CDO market but we had no synthetic CDO PVP in this year's quarter. Looking forward, despite weaker market conditions compared to 2003, we remain focused on executing our business plan while maintaining our underwriting discipline."

        Financial guaranty reinsurance PVP totaled $39.3 million, up 65% from the second quarter of 2003. The 65% significantly benefited from contracts in force in 2004 that were incepted in the third quarter of 2003. For the full year 2003, financial guaranty reinsurance PVP was $164.1 million. In the second quarter of 2004, we did not renew one treaty and had a reduced cession percentage on a second treaty. If these changes had been in force at April 1, 2004, PVP volume in the quarter would have been about $27.3 million. Robbin Conner, Executive Vice President of Assured Guaranty Corp. and head of the Financial Guaranty-Reinsurance segment commented, "Due to the reduced treaty cessions, we now expect that our reinsurance volumes will decline for the balance of 2004 and the first half of 2005 from the previous comparable periods. We are increasing our focus on facultative opportunities from all market participants and are pursuing additional treaty relationships."

        Robert Mills, CFO of Assured Guaranty, commented, "The second quarter's results include the financial impact of numerous strategic accomplishments in the quarter: the IPO, the exiting or close-out of lines of business in the other segment, the issuance of public senior debt and the conversion of Assured Guaranty's stock-based compensation plans. Our second quarter balance sheet and income statement are not easily compared to prior period results because of the impact of all of these transactions. I am encouraged by our results and future prospects."

2



Gross Premiums Written by Segment

($ in millions)

  Second
Quarter
2004

  Second
Quarter
2003

  % Change
 
Financial guaranty direct   $ 17.7   $ 20.8   (15 )%
Financial guaranty reinsurance     35.8     34.0   5  
Mortgage guaranty     0.9     8.5   (89 )
   
 
     
  Sub-total   $ 54.4   $ 63.3   (14 )%
Other segment     10.0     18.3   (45 )
   
 
     
  Total gross premium written   $ 64.4   $ 81.6   (21 )%

        Gross premiums written were $64.4 million in the quarter, down 21% from the prior year period, while net premiums written were ($47.4) million. Gross premiums written in our other segment, which represents our exited lines of business, were $10.0 million in the quarter, while net premiums written in this segment were ($101.4) million, due to the accounting for the unwinding of the remaining businesses exited as part of the initial public offering, including trade credit, title reinsurance and auto residual value. Excluding the other segment, gross premiums written were $54.4 million, down 14%, and net premiums written were $54.0 million, down 14%, due principally to the commutation of an excess of loss reinsurance contract and the continued run off of our mortgage quota share and single-name credit default swap books of business. Combined, these items reduced gross and net premiums written by $8.7 million in the quarter compared to the second quarter of 2003.

Net Premiums Earned by Segment

($ in millions)

  Second
Quarter
2004

  Second
Quarter
2003

  %
Change

 
Financial guaranty direct   $ 16.1   $ 21.2   (24 )%
Financial guaranty reinsurance     25.6     30.1   (15 )
Mortgage guaranty     15.0     9.4   60  
   
 
     
  Sub-total   $ 56.7   $ 60.7   (7 )%
Other segment     (83.4 )   21.4   NMF  
   
 
     
  Total     (26.7 )   82.1   NMF  
Municipal refunding premiums     4.4     8.1   (46 )
   
 
     
  Net premiums earned excluding refundings   $ (31.1 ) $ 74.0   NMF  

        Net premiums earned were $(26.7) million in the second quarter of 2004, compared with $82.1 million in the second quarter of 2003. Excluding the other segment, net premiums earned were $56.7, down 7% from $60.7 million in the second quarter of 2003. Financial guaranty direct net premiums earned were $16.1 million, down 24%, due mainly to a $3.9 million reduction in net premiums earned on our closed book of single name corporate credit default swaps. Financial guaranty reinsurance net premiums earned were $25.6 million, down 15% from $30.1 million in the second quarter of 2003. Included in this amount were $4.4 million of municipal bond refunding premiums, compared with $8.1 million in the second quarter of 2003. Mortgage guaranty net premiums earned were $15.0 million, compared with $9.4 million in the second quarter of 2003, up 60%, reflecting the release of $8.8 million in unearned premium reserves related to an excess of loss reinsurance commutation by a client offset by a $3.0 million reduction in net premiums earned on our quota share mortgage guaranty reinsurance business compared to the second quarter of 2003.

        Investment income in the quarter was $23.5 million, down 2% compared with $24.0 million in the second quarter of 2003. The average portfolio book yield was 4.7%, compared with 5.0% in the prior

3



year on an investment portfolio of $2.0 billion at June 30, 2004. The portfolio's average credit quality remained at AA+/Aa2. IPO-related and transactions in the other segment were completed during the quarter and reduced the investment portfolio by $133 million, and increased our funds held liability by $32 million.

Consolidated GAAP Combined Ratio

 
  Second
Quarter
2004

  Second
Quarter
2003

 
Loss ratio   289.9 % 43.6 %
Expense ratio   (149.4 ) 36.1  
   
 
 
  Combined ratio   140.5 % 79.7 %

        Consolidated loss and expense numbers are not comparable to prior quarters due to the effect of the other segment on consolidated financial results. Loss and loss adjustment expenses in the quarter were ($77.4) million, or 289.9% of net premiums earned ("loss ratio"), compared with $35.8 million or a 43.6% loss ratio in the second quarter of 2003. Assured Guaranty's profit commission expense, acquisition costs and other operating expenses were $39.9 million in the quarter, as compared to $29.6 million. The expense ratio, which is calculated by computing profit commission expense, acquisition cost and operating expenses as percent of net premiums earned is not meaningful for comparison between quarters because of the negative net premium earned in the second quarter of 2004.

        The Company's June 30, 2004 book value per share was $18.96, or $18.19 excluding accumulated other comprehensive income. Management, investors and analysts use the calculation of adjusted book value to evaluate the net present value of the Company's in-force premium and capital base. Adjusted book value(4) per share was $25.42 at June 30, 2004. Book value and adjusted book value per share growth in the current period are not comparable to prior periods as the prior periods do not include the financial impact of the issuance of $200 million of senior notes in May 2004.

        The Company's return on average equity excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) was 12.4% in the quarter and 13.2% year to date. Management, investors and analysts use operating return on average equity, which is calculated by annualizing net income excluding after-tax net realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments by average shareholders' equity excluding accumulated other comprehensive income, to evaluate our financial performance. Operating return on average equity excluding AOCI was 8.0% in the quarter and 10.5% year to date. The $9.6 million after tax charge for the accelerated vesting of stock awards reduced the quarter's ROE by 2.8% and the operating loss for the other segment, which was largely offset by realized capital gains, reduced the quarter's ROE by 1.7%. Excluding these two items, second quarter operating ROE would have been 12.5%.

4



Analysis of ROE

 
  Second
Quarter
2004

  Six Months
Ended
6/30/2004

 
ROE, excluding AOCI   12.4 % 13.2 %
Percentage impact on ROE of:          
  After-tax realized gains on investments   1.8   0.9  
  After-tax unrealized gains on derivatives   2.6   1.8  
   
 
 
Operating income ROE(1)   8.0 % 10.5 %
  After-tax incentive based stock compensation expense   2.8 % 1.4 %
  After-tax other segment-related operating loss   1.7   0.4  
   
 
 
    12.5 % 12.3 %

        Robert Mills, CFO of Assured Guaranty, added, "Although the first six months produced an operating ROE which exceeded our target, the results of the first six months benefited from one-off and close-out transactions in our principal business segments. Based on our analysis of current market and economic conditions, our split ratings and the change in two of our reinsurance relationships, we expect our 2004 ROE, excluding the second quarter charge for the accelerated vesting of stock awards and the operating loss of the other segment, to approximately 11%. Looking ahead to 2005, the continued weakness in the market combined with the reinsurance changes will place significant pressure on our ability to improve ROE, although we will be better able to assess our future prospects after the fourth quarter is completed."

        The Company will host a conference call for investors at 10:00 a.m. EDT (11:00 a.m. ADT) on Wednesday, August 4, 2004. The conference call will be available via live and archived webcast at www.assuredguaranty.com or by dialing 800-299-9086 (in the United States) and 617-786-2903 (International), passcode 60107754. A replay of the call will be available from August 4, 2004 until August 18, 2004. To listen to the replay dial: 888-286-8010 (in the United States) or 617-801-6888 (International), passcode 92526991.

        Please refer to the Assured Guaranty Financial Supplement June 30, 2004, which is posted on the Company's website, for more detailed information on individual segment performance, together with additional disclosure on our financial guaranty portfolio and investment portfolio. Assured Guaranty's website reference (url) is http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=177779&p=irol-irhome. (Due to the length of this URL, it may be necessary to copy and paste this hyperlink into your Internet browser's URL address field.)

        Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a Bermuda-based holding company that through its operating subsidiaries provides credit enhancement products to the municipal finance, structured finance and mortgage markets. More information can be found at www.assuredguaranty.com.

Footnotes:

(1)
We believe the presentation of operating income and operating income ROE enhance the understanding of our results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of our business. We exclude net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, the market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict. Operating income ROE represents the return on average equity excluding AOCI based on operating income. These measures should not be viewed as a substitute for net income determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).

(2)
PVP, which is a non-GAAP measure, represents gross premiums related to financial guaranty contracts written in the current period, including the full amount of upfront installment premiums received and the present value of all installment premiums, discounted at 6% per year.

(3)
Due to reporting lags by our ceding companies, PVP for installment premiums from our financial guaranty reinsurance segment is reported on a one-quarter lag.

(4)
Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP measure, is derived by beginning with shareholder's equity (book value) and adding or subtracting the after-tax value of: the financial guaranty net unearned premium reserve; deferred acquisition costs and the present value of estimated net future installment premiums (discounted at 6)%. These adjustments will not be realized until future periods and may differ materially from the amounts used in determining adjusted book value.

5



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Income Statements
dollars in thousands

 
  Quarter Ended
June 30,

  Six Months Ended
June 30,

 
  2004
  2003
  2004
  2003
Revenues                        
Gross written premiums   $ 64,355   $ 81,550   $ 62,812   $ 194,285
Net written premiums   $ (47,352 ) $ 119,044   $ (54,223 ) $ 223,117
Net earned premiums   $ (26,739 ) $ 82,147   $ 59,927   $ 145,735
Net investment income     23,456     24,003     47,841     48,104
Other income     14     265     546     821
   
 
 
 
Total revenues   $ (3,269 ) $ 106,415   $ 108,314   $ 194,660

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Loss and loss adjustment expenses     (77,417 )   35,796     (53,749 )   58,984
Profit commission expenses     4,847     2,681     10,334     5,650
Acquisition costs     8,437     19,378     21,544     31,221
Other operating expenses     26,608     7,535     39,229     19,169
Goodwill expense             1,645    
Interest expense     2,546     1,434     3,980     2,868
   
 
 
 
Total expenses   $ (34,979 ) $ 66,824   $ 22,983   $ 117,892
Income before provision for income taxes     31,710     39,591     85,331     76,768
Total provision for income taxes     3,859     6,371     13,762     12,805

Operating income *

 

$

27,851

 

$

33,220

 

$

71,569

 

$

63,963

After-tax net realized investment gains

 

 

6,306

 

 

1,773

 

 

6,337

 

 

3,070
After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments     8,959     7,710     12,102     7,421

Net income

 

$

43,116

 

$

42,703

 

$

90,009

 

$

74,454
   
 
 
 

*
Net income excluding net realized investment gains and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments.

6



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Balance Sheets
(dollars in thousands)

 
  As of:

 
 
  June 30,
2004

  December 31,
2003

 
Assets              
Fixed maturity securities available for sale, at fair value   $ 1,853,270   $ 2,052,217  
Short-term investments, at cost, which approximates market     178,915     137,517  
   
 
 
Total Investments     2,032,185     2,189,734  

Cash

 

 

28,584

 

 

32,365

 
Accrued investment income     21,364     23,758  
Deferred acquisition costs     186,812     178,673  
Premium receivable     33,155     63,997  
Prepaid reinsurance premiums     25,140     10,974  
Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses     200,760     122,124  
Due from affiliate         115,000  
Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments     13,445      
Value of reinsurance business assumed         14,226  
Goodwill     85,417     87,062  
Other assets     28,446     19,954  
   
 
 
Total assets   $ 2,655,308   $ 2,857,867  
   
 
 
Liabilities              
Unearned premium reserve   $ 525,351   $ 625,429  
Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses     297,197     522,593  
Profit commissions payable     56,009     71,237  
Reinsurance balances payable     67,480     4,908  
Deferred federal income taxes payable     5,213     55,637  
Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments         8,558  
Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts     52,040     9,635  
Long-term debt     197,311     75,000  
Other liabilities     32,836     47,246  
   
 
 
Total liabilities     1,233,437     1,420,243  

Shareholders' equity

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Common Stock     759     16,403  
Treasury stock     (7,850 )    
Additional paid-in capital     899,062     955,490  
Accumulated other comprehensive income     57,978     81,185  
Unearned stock grant compensation     (8,112 )   (5,479 )
Retained earnings     480,034     390,025  
   
 
 
Total shareholders' equity     1,421,871     1,437,624  

Total liabilities and shareholders' equity

 

$

2,655,308

 

$

2,857,867

 
   
 
 

7



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Highlights

 
  Quarter Ended
June 30,

  Six Months Ended
June 30,

 
 
  2004
  2003
  2004
  2003
 
 
  (dollars in thousands except share amounts)

 
Premium analysis:                          
Present value of gross premiums written ("PVP")   $ 53,645   $ 39,259   $ 136,115   $ 98,502  
  Present value of installment premiums written in period     (31,567 )   (27,672 )   (79,422 )   (64,063 )
   
 
 
 
 
  Upfront gross premiums writen     22,078     11,587     56,693     34,439  
  Installment gross premiums written     31,422     43,213     74,807     64,161  
   
 
 
 
 
Financial Guaranty gross premiums written     53,500     54,800     131,500     98,600  
Mortgage     900     8,500     14,900     16,600  
Other     10,000     18,300     (83,600 )   79,100  
   
 
 
 
 
Total gross premium written   $ 64,400   $ 81,600   $ 62,800   $ 194,300  
   
 
 
 
 

Book value

 

$

1,421,871

 

$

1,329,789

 

$

1,421,871

 

$

1,329,789

 
  Net UPR less DAC—after-tax     222,589     156,155     222,589     156,155  
  Net present value of installment premiums in- force—after-tax     261,800     216,700     261,800     216,700  
   
 
 
 
 
Adjusted book value   $ 1,906,260   $ 1,702,644   $ 1,906,260   $ 1,702,644  
   
 
 
 
 

Average basic shares outstanding

 

 

75,000,000

 

 

75,000,000

 

 

75,000,000

 

 

75,000,000

 
Average fully diluted shares outstanding     75,000,879     75,000,000     75,000,879     75,000,000  
Per fully diluted share:                          
Net income   $ 0.57   $ 0.57   $ 1.20   $ 0.99  
  After-tax realized gains on investments     0.08     0.02     0.08     0.04  
  After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives     0.12     0.10     0.16     0.10  
   
 
 
 
 
Net income excluding gains (losses)   $ 0.37   $ 0.45   $ 0.95   $ 0.85  
   
 
 
 
 

Book value

 

$

18.96

 

$

17.73

 

$

18.96

 

$

17.73

 
  Net UPR less DAC—after-tax     2.97     2.08     2.97     2.08  
  Net present value of installment premiums in- force—after-tax     3.49     2.89     3.49     2.89  
   
 
 
 
 
Adjusted book value   $ 25.42   $ 22.70   $ 25.42   $ 22.70  
   
 
 
 
 

8


LOGO   Assured Guaranty Ltd.
30 Woodbourne Avenue—5th Floor
Hamilton Bermuda HM 08
441-299-9375
www.assuredguaranty.com
   

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:

        Any forward-looking statements made in this press release reflect the Company's current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, the Company's forward-looking statements, such as its statements regarding reinsurance, PVP and ROE, could be affected by a significant reduction in the amount of reinsurance ceded by one or more of our principal ceding companies, rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company's business strategy, contract cancellations, developments in the world's financial and capital markets, more severe losses or more frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company's loss reserve, changes in regulation or tax laws, the Company's dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, and changes in general economic conditions, as well as management's response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Contact Information:

Investors:
Sabra Purtill
441-278-6665
212-408-6044
spurtill@assuredguaranty.com

Media:
Barbara Van Hassel
212-261-5580
bvanhassel@assuredguaranty.com

9




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Assured Guaranty Reports Second Quarter 2004 Earnings of $0.57 Per Share
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Consolidated Income Statements dollars in thousands
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Consolidated Balance Sheets (dollars in thousands)
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Highlights
EX-99.2 3 a2141373zex-99_2.htm EXHIBIT 99.2
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Exhibit 99.2

GRAPHIC


Quarterly Operating Supplement
Second Quarter 2004
June 30, 2004

Worksheet Page

  Page
Selected Financial Highlights   1
Consolidated GAAP Income Statements   2
Consolidated Balance Sheet   3
Segment Results   4-5
Financial Guaranty PVP, Par Written and Par Outstanding   6-7
Fixed Income Investment Portfolio   8
Financial Guaranty Profile   9
Ratings Distribution   10
Geographic Distribution   11
CDO and Credit Derivative Ratings Distribution   12
25 Largest Municipal Exposures   13
25 Largest Structured Finance Exposures   14
Largest Single Name Corporate/Sovereign CDS Exposures   15
Claims Paying Resources   16
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financials   17-18
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financial Guaranty Profile   19-21
Assured Guaranty Re Int'l Financial Statements   22-23
Assured Guaranty Re Int'l Financial Guaranty Profile   24
Annual Financial and Statistical Data   25

        This report is for informational purposes only. It should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our IPO prospectus dated April 22, 2004 and 10-Q dated March 31, 2004.

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:

        Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the Company's current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, the Company's forward-looking statements, such as its statements regarding PVP, could be affected by a significant reduction in the amount of reinsurance ceded by one or more of our principal ceding companies, rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company's business strategy, contract cancellations, developments in the world's financial and capital markets, more severe losses or more frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company's loss reserve, changes in regulation or tax laws, the Company's dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, and changes in general economic conditions, as well as management's response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
(dollars in thousands except per share amounts)

 
  Quarter Ended
June 30,
2004

  Quarter Ended
June 30,
2003

  Percentage
Change vs.
2Q 2003

  6 Months Ended
June 30,
2004

  6 Months Ended
June 30,
2003

  Percentage
Change vs.
1H 2003

 
Premium analysis:                                  
Present value of financial guaranty gross premiums written ("PVP")(1)   $ 53,645   $ 39,259   37 % $ 136,115   $ 98,502   38 %
  Present value of installment premiums written in period     (31,567 )   (27,672 ) 14 %   (79,422 )   (64,063 ) 24 %
   
 
     
 
     
  Upfront gross premiums writen     22,078     11,587   91 %   56,693     34,439   65 %
  Installment gross premiums written     31,422     43,213   -27 %   74,807     64,161   17 %
   
 
     
 
     
Financial guaranty gross premiums written   $ 53,500   $ 54,800   -2 % $ 131,500   $ 98,600   33 %
  Mortgage guaranty     900     8,500   -89 %   14,900     16,600   -10 %
  Other     10,000     18,300   -45 %   (83,600 )   79,100   -206 %
   
 
     
 
     
Total gross premiums written   $ 64,400   $ 81,600   -21 % $ 62,800   $ 194,300   -68 %
   
 
     
 
     

Net income

 

$

43,116

 

$

42,703

 

1

%

$

90,009

 

$

74,454

 

21

%
  less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments     6,306     1,773   256 %   6,337     3,070   106 %
  less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives     8,959     7,710   16 %   12,102     7,421   63 %
   
 
     
 
     
Operating income(2)   $ 27,851   $ 33,220   -16 % $ 71,569   $ 63,963   12 %
   
 
     
 
     

Book value

 

$

1,421,871

 

$

1,329,789

 

7

%

$

1,421,871

 

$

1,329,789

 

7

%
  Net UPR less DAC—after-tax     222,589     156,155   43 %   222,589     156,155   43 %
  Net present value of installment premiums in- force—after-tax     261,800     216,700   21 %   261,800     216,700   21 %
   
 
     
 
     
Adjusted book value   $ 1,906,260   $ 1,702,644   12 % $ 1,906,260   $ 1,702,644   12 %
   
 
     
 
     

ROE, excluding AOCI

 

 

12.4

%

 

14.1

%

- -12

%

 

13.2

%

 

12.5

%

6

%
  less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments     1.8 %   0.6 % 205 %   0.9 %   0.5 % 76 %
  less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives     2.6 %   2.6 % 2 %   1.8 %   1.2 % 45 %
   
 
     
 
     
Operating ROE, excluding AOCI(2)     8.0 %   11.0 % -27 %   10.5 %   10.7 % -2 %

Average basic shares outstanding *

 

 

75,000,000

 

 

75,000,000

 

0

%

 

75,000,000

 

 

75,000,000

 

0

%
Average diluted shares outstanding *     75,000,879     75,000,000   0 %   75,000,879     75,000,000   0 %

Per diluted share:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Net income   $ 0.57   $ 0.57     $ 1.20   $ 0.99   21 %
  less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments     0.08     0.02   300 %   0.08     0.04   106 %
  less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives     0.12     0.10   20 %   0.16     0.10   63 %
   
 
     
 
     
Operating income   $ 0.37   $ 0.45   -18 % $ 0.95   $ 0.85   12 %
   
 
     
 
     

Book value

 

$

18.96

 

$

17.73

 

7

%

$

18.96

 

$

17.73

 

7

%
  Net UPR less DAC—after-tax     2.97     2.08   43 %   2.97     2.08   43 %
  Net present value of installment premiums in- force—after-tax     3.49     2.89   21 %   3.49     2.89   21 %
   
 
     
 
     
Adjusted book value(3)   $ 25.42   $ 22.70   12 % $ 25.42   $ 22.70   12 %
   
 
     
 
     

Financial guaranty par insured

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Consolidated claims paying resources                                  
Par insured to consolidated claims paying resources                                  

*
Historical amounts represent shares issued upon the IPO closing

2


(1)
PVP, which is a non-GAAP measure, represents gross premiums related to financial guaranty contracts written in the current period, including the full amount of upfront installment premiums received and the present value of all installment premiums, discounted at 6% per year. Management, equity analysts and investors use this non-GAAP measure to evaluate the value of new financial guaranty business production for Assured Guaranty, as the GAAP gross premiums written measure does not adequately measure the value of installment premiums on new contracts underwritten in a reporting period.

(2)
Operating income is defined as net income excluding after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments. Operating ROE represents operating income as a percentage of average shareholder's equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income "AOCI". We believe the presentation of operating income and operating ROE enhances the understanding of our results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of our insurance business. We exclude net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, the market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for net income determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).

(3)
Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP measure, is derived by beginning with shareholder's equity (book value) and adding or subtracting the after-tax value of: the financial guaranty net unearned premium reserve; deferred acquisition costs and the present value of estimated net future installment premiums (discounted at 6%). The adjustments described above will not be realized until future periods and may differ materially from the amounts used in determining adjusted book value. Management, investors and analysts use the calculation of adjusted book value to evaluate the net present value of the Company's in-force premium and capital base.

3



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Income Statements
(dollars in thousands)

 
  Quarter Ended
June 30

   
  Six Months Ended
June 30

   
 
 
  % Change
versus
2Q-03

  % Change
versus
1H-03

 
 
  2004
  2003
  2004
  2003
 
Revenues                                  
  Gross written premiums   $ 64,355   $ 81,550   -21 % $ 62,812   $ 194,285   -68 %
  Net written premiums     (47,352 )   119,044   -140 %   (54,223 )   223,117   -124 %
  Net earned premiums     (26,739 )   82,147   -133 %   59,927     145,735   -59 %
  Net investment income     23,456     24,003   -2 %   47,841     48,104   -1 %
  Other income     14     265   -95 %   546     821   -33 %
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Total revenues   $ (3,269 ) $ 106,415   -103 % $ 108,314   $ 194,660   -44 %
  Expenses                                  
  Loss and loss adjustment expenses     (77,417 )   35,796   -316 %   (53,749 )   58,984   -191 %
  Profit commission expenses     4,847     2,681   81 %   10,334     5,650   83 %
  Acquisition costs     8,437     19,378   -56 %   21,544     31,221   -31 %
  Other operating expenses     26,608     7,535   253 %   39,229     19,169   105 %
  Goodwill expense               1,645        
  Interest expense     2,546     1,434   78 %   3,980     2,868   39 %
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Total expenses   $ (34,979 ) $ 66,824   -152 % $ 22,983   $ 117,892   -81 %
  Income before provision for income taxes     31,710     39,591   -20 %   85,331     76,768   11 %
  Total provision for income taxes     3,859     6,371   -39 %   13,762     12,805   7 %
  (1)Operating income   $ 27,851   $ 33,220   -16 % $ 71,569   $ 63,963   12 %
  After-tax net realized gains on investments     6,306     1,773   256 %   6,337     3,070   106 %
  After-tax unrealized gains on derivative instruments     8,959     7,710   16 %   12,102     7,421   63 %
  Net income   $ 43,116   $ 42,703   1 % $ 90,009   $ 74,454   21 %
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
(1)
Operating income is defined as net income excluding after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments. Operating ROE represents operating income as a percentage of average shareholder's equity, excluding AOCI. We believe the presentation of operating income and operating ROE enhances the understanding of our results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of our insurance business. We exclude net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, the market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for net income determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).

4



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets
(dollars in thousands)

 
  As of

 
 
  June 30, 2004
  December 31, 2003
 
Assets              
  Fixed maturity securities available for sale, at fair value   $ 1,853,270   $ 2,052,217  
  Short-term investments, at cost, which approximates market     178,915     137,517  
   
 
 
  Total investments     2,032,185     2,189,734  
 
Cash

 

 

28,584

 

 

32,365

 
  Accrued investment income     21,364     23,758  
  Deferred acquisition costs     186,812     178,673  
  Premium receivable     33,155     63,997  
  Prepaid reinsurance premiums     25,140     10,974  
  Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses     200,760     122,124  
  Due from affiliate         115,000  
  Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments     13,445      
  Value of reinsurance business assumed         14,226  
  Goodwill     85,417     87,062  
  Other assets     28,446     19,954  
   
 
 
Total assets   $ 2,655,308   $ 2,857,867  
   
 
 

Liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
  Unearned premium reserve   $ 525,351   $ 625,429  
  Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses     297,197     522,593  
  Profit commissions payable     56,009     71,237  
  Reinsurance balances payable     67,480     4,908  
  Deferred federal income taxes payable     5,213     55,637  
  Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments         8,558  
  Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts     52,040     9,635  
  Long-term debt     197,311     75,000  
  Other liabilities     32,836     47,246  
   
 
 
Total liabilities     1,233,437     1,420,243  

Shareholders' equity

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
  Common stock     759     16,403  
  Treasury stock     (7,850 )    
  Additional paid-in capital     899,062     955,490  
  Accumulated other comprehensive income     57,978     81,185  
  Unearned stock grant compensation     (8,112 )   (5,479 )
  Retained earnings     480,034     390,025  
   
 
 

Total shareholders' equity

 

 

1,421,871

 

 

1,437,624

 

Total liabilities & shareholders' equity

 

$

2,655,308

 

$

2,857,867

 
   
 
 

5



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Segment Results
(dollars in millions)

 
  Quarter Ended June 30, 2004(1)
 
 
  Financial
Guaranty
Direct

  Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance(2)

  Mortgage
Guaranty

  Subtotal
  Other
  Total
 
Present value of gross premiums written:                                      
Municipal   $ 2.9   $ 30.4         $ 33.4         $ 33.4  
Structured finance     11.4     8.9           20.3           20.3  
   
 
       
       
 
  Total   $ 14.4   $ 39.3         $ 53.6         $ 53.6  
Income statement:                                      
Gross premiums written   $ 17.7   $ 35.8   $ 0.9   $ 54.4   $ 10.0   $ 64.4  
Net premiums written     17.3     35.8     0.9     54.0     (101.4 )   (47.4 )

Net premiums earned

 

 

16.1

 

 

25.6

 

 

15.0

 

 

56.7

 

 

(83.4

)

 

(26.7

)

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

 

1.6

 

 

(0.9

)

 

(3.3

)

 

(2.6

)

 

(74.8

)

 

(77.4

)
Profit commission expense         0.3     4.3     4.6     0.2     4.8  
Acquisition costs     0.1     6.6     1.7     8.4         8.4  
Operating expenses     4.3     6.9     4.0     15.2         15.2  

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

10.1

 

$

12.7

 

$

8.3

 

$

31.1

 

$

(8.8

)

$

22.3

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

 

9.9

%

 

- -3.5

%

 

- -22.0

%

 

- -4.6

%

 

89.7

%

 

289.9

%
Expense ratio     27.3 %   53.9 %   66.7 %   49.7 %   -0.2 %   -106.4 %
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
Combined ratio     37.3 %   50.4 %   44.7 %   45.1 %   89.4 %   183.5 %
 
  Quarter Ended June 30, 2003
 
 
  Financial
Guaranty
Direct

  Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance(1)

  Mortgage
Guaranty

  Subtotal
  Other
  Total
 
Present value of gross premiums written:                                      
Municipal   $   $ 12.6         $ 12.6         $ 12.6  
Structured finance     15.4     11.3           26.7           26.7  
   
 
       
       
 
  Total   $ 15.4   $ 23.8           39.3         $ 39.3  
Income statement:                                      
Gross premiums written   $ 20.8   $ 34.0   $ 8.5   $ 63.3   $ 18.3   $ 81.6  
Net premiums written     20.6     33.9     8.2     62.7     56.3     119.0  

Net premiums earned

 

 

21.2

 

 

30.1

 

 

9.4

 

 

60.7

 

 

21.4

 

 

82.1

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

 

6.4

 

 

0.9

 

 

3.7

 

 

11.0

 

 

24.8

 

 

35.8

 
Profit commission expense         0.9     1.4     2.3     0.4     2.7  
Acquisition costs         11.9     1.5     13.4     6.0     19.4  
Operating expenses     1.9     2.8     0.9     5.6     1.9     7.5  

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

12.9

 

$

13.6

 

$

1.9

 

$

28.4

 

$

(11.7

)

$

16.7

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

 

30.2

%

 

3.0

%

 

39.4

%

 

18.1

%

 

115.9

%

 

43.6

%
Expense ratio     9.0 %   51.8 %   40.4 %   35.1 %   38.8 %   36.1 %
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
Combined ratio     39.2 %   54.8 %   79.8 %   53.2 %   154.7 %   79.7 %

(1)
Excludes $11.3 million of operating expenses, related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.

(2)
Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross premiums written, par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

6



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Segment Results
(dollars in millions)

 
  Six Months Ended June 30, 2004(1)
 
 
  Financial
Guaranty
Direct

  Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance(2)

  Mortgage
Guaranty

  Subtotal
  Other
  Total
 
Present value of gross premiums written:                                      
Municipal   $ 2.9   $ 72.7         $ 75.7         $ 75.7  
Structured finance     19.3     41.2           60.5           60.5  
   
 
       
       
 
  Total   $ 22.2   $ 113.9         $ 136.1         $ 136.1  

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Gross premiums written   $ 43.3   $ 88.2   $ 14.9   $ 146.4   $ (83.6 ) $ 62.8  
Net premiums written     42.6     88.2     14.9     145.7     (199.9 )   (54.2 )
Net premiums earned     56.8     46.0     23.4     126.2     (66.3 )   59.9  
Loss and loss adjustment expenses     15.0     3.0     (4.5 )   13.5     (67.2 )   (53.7 )
Profit commission expense         0.4     9.3     9.7     0.6     10.3  
Acquisition costs     1.5     13.7     2.6     17.8     3.8     21.6  
Operating expenses     7.6     11.0     5.7     24.3     3.6     27.9  

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

32.7

 

$

17.9

 

$

10.3

 

$

60.9

 

$

(7.1

)

$

53.8

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

 

26.4

%

 

6.5

%

 

- -19.2

%

 

10.7

%

 

101.4

%

 

- -89.6

%
Expense ratio     16.0 %   54.6 %   75.2 %   41.0 %   -12.1 %   99.8 %
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
Combined ratio     42.4 %   61.1 %   56.0 %   51.7 %   89.3 %   10.2 %
 
  Six Months Ended June 30, 2003
 
 
  Financial
Guaranty
Direct

  Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance(2)

  Mortgage
Guaranty

  Subtotal
  Other
  Total
 
Present value of gross premiums written:                                      
Municipal   $   $ 39.3         $ 39.3         $ 39.3  
Structured finance     36.1     23.1           59.2           59.2  
   
 
       
       
 
  Total   $ 36.1   $ 62.4         $ 98.5         $ 98.5  

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Gross premiums written   $ 34.8   $ 63.8   $ 16.6   $ 115.2   $ 79.1   $ 194.3  
Net premiums written     34.4     63.0     16.3     113.7     109.4     223.1  
Net premiums earned     35.9     47.0     19.0     101.9     43.8     145.7  
Loss and loss adjustment expenses     8.4     2.7     4.9     16.0     43.0     59.0  
Profit commission expense         1.0     4.6     5.6         5.6  
Acquisition costs         17.4     2.5     19.9     11.3     31.2  
Operating expenses     4.6     5.9     2.7     13.2     6.1     19.3  

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

22.9

 

$

20.0

 

$

4.3

 

$

47.2

 

$

(16.6

)

$

30.6

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

 

23.4

%

 

5.7

%

 

25.8

%

 

15.7

%

 

98.2

%

 

40.5

%
Expense ratio     12.8 %   51.7 %   51.6 %   38.0 %   39.7 %   38.5 %
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
Combined ratio     36.2 %   57.4 %   77.4 %   53.7 %   137.9 %   79.0 %

(1)
Excludes $11.3 million of operating expenses, related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.

(2)
Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross premiums written, par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

7



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty PVP, Par Written and Par Outstanding
(dollars in millions)

 
  Quarter Ended June 30, 2004
 
 
  Financial
Guaranty
Direct

  Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

  Total
 
Present value of financial guaranty gross premiums written ("PVP"):   $ 14.4   $ 39.3   $ 53.6  
  Present value of installment premiums written in period     (14.4 )   (17.2 )   (31.6 )
   
 
 
 
  Upfront gross premiums writen         22.1     22.1  
  Installment gross premiums written     17.7     13.7     31.4  
   
 
 
 
Financial guaranty gross premiums written   $ 17.7   $ 35.8   $ 53.5  

Present value of financial guaranty gross premiums written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Municipal   $ 2.9   $ 30.4   $ 33.4  
Structured finance     11.4     8.9     20.3  
   
 
 
 
  Total   $ 14.4   $ 39.3   $ 53.6  

Par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Municipal   $ 246   $ 1,590   $ 1,836  
Structured finance     2,444     629     3,074  
   
 
 
 
  Total   $ 2,691   $ 2,219   $ 4,910  

Par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Municipal   $ 2,321   $ 52,061   $ 54,382  
Structured finance     23,454     13,514     36,968  
   
 
 
 
  Total   $ 25,775   $ 65,575   $ 91,350  

Present value of installment premiums in force

 

$

219.7

 

$

147.2

 

$

366.9

 
Unearned premium reserve   $ 12.9   $ 445.0   $ 457.9  
                     
 
  Quarter Ended June 30, 2003
 
 
  Financial
Guaranty
Direct

  Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

  Total
 
Present value of financial guaranty gross premiums written ("PVP"):   $ 15.4   $ 23.8   $ 39.3  
  Present value of installment premiums written in period     (15.4 )   (12.2 )   (27.7 )
   
 
 
 
  Upfront gross premiums writen         11.6     11.6  
  Installment gross premiums written     20.8     22.4     43.2  
   
 
 
 
Financial guaranty gross premiums written   $ 20.8   $ 34.0   $ 54.8  

Present value of financial guaranty gross premiums written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Municipal   $   $ 12.6   $ 12.6  
Structured finance     15.4     11.3     26.7  
   
 
 
 
  Total   $ 15.4   $ 23.8   $ 39.3  

Par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Municipal   $   $ 914   $ 914  
Structured finance     1,163     737     1,899  
   
 
 
 
  Total   $ 1,163   $ 1,651   $ 2,813  

Par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Municipal   $ 2,381   $ 47,001   $ 49,382  
Structured finance     18,140     12,976     31,116  
   
 
 
 
  Total   $ 20,521   $ 59,977   $ 80,498  

Present value of installment premiums in force

 

$

205.4

 

$

105.6

 

$

311.1

 
Unearned premium reserve   $ 11.8   $ 343.6   $ 355.4  

8



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty PVP, Par Written and Par Outstanding
(dollars in millions)

 
  Six Months Ended June 30, 2004
 
 
  Financial
Guaranty
Direct

  Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

  Total
 
Present value of financial guaranty gross premiums written ("PVP"):   $ 22.2   $ 113.9   $ 136.1  
  Present value of installment premiums written in period     (22.2 )   (57.2 )   (79.4 )
   
 
 
 
  Upfront gross premiums writen         56.7     56.7  
  Installment gross premiums written     43.3     31.5     74.8  
   
 
 
 
Financial guaranty gross premiums written   $ 43.3   $ 88.2   $ 131.5  

Present value of financial guaranty gross premiums written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Municipal   $ 2.9   $ 72.7   $ 75.7  
Structured finance     19.3     41.2     60.5  
   
 
 
 
  Total   $ 22.2   $ 113.9   $ 136.1  

Par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Municipal   $ 246   $ 3,522   $ 3,769  
Structured finance     3,932     1,783     5,715  
   
 
 
 
  Total   $ 4,178   $ 5,305   $ 9,483  

Par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Municipal   $ 2,321   $ 52,061   $ 54,382  
Structured finance     23,454     13,514     36,968  
   
 
 
 
  Total   $ 25,775   $ 65,575   $ 91,350  

Present value of installment premiums in force

 

$

219.7

 

$

147.2

 

$

366.9

 
Unearned premium reserve   $ 12.9   $ 445.0   $ 457.9  
                     
 
  Six Months Ended June 30, 2003
 
 
  Financial
Guaranty
Direct

  Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

  Total
 
Present value of financial guaranty gross premiums written ("PVP"):   $ 36.1   $ 62.4   $ 98.5  
  Present value of installment premiums written in period     (36.1 )   (27.9 )   (64.1 )
   
 
 
 
  Upfront gross premiums writen         34.4     34.4  
  Installment gross premiums written     34.8     29.4     64.2  
   
 
 
 
Financial guaranty gross premiums written   $ 34.8   $ 63.8   $ 98.6  

Present value of financial guaranty gross premiums written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Municipal   $   $ 39.3   $ 39.3  
Structured finance     36.1     23.1     59.2  
   
 
 
 
  Total   $ 36.1   $ 62.4   $ 98.5  

Par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Municipal   $   $ 2,193   $ 2,193  
Structured finance     2,375     2,000     4,375  
   
 
 
 
  Total   $ 2,375   $ 4,193   $ 6,568  

Par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Municipal   $ 2,381   $ 47,001   $ 49,382  
Structured finance     18,140     12,976     31,116  
   
 
 
 
  Total   $ 20,521   $ 59,977   $ 80,498  

Present value of installment premiums in force

 

$

205.4

 

$

105.6

 

$

311.1

 
Unearned premium reserve   $ 11.8   $ 343.6   $ 355.4  

9



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Fixed Income Investment Portfolio
as of June 30, 2004
(dollars in thousands)

 
  Amortized
Cost

  Fair Value
  Pre-Tax
Book
Yield

  Duration
  Annualized
Investment
Income

Fixed maturity securities available for sale:                          
  U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies   $ 248,484   $ 255,902   5.14 % 5.6   $ 12,772
Obligations of states and political subdivisions     329,596     338,647   4.50 % 7.5     14,832
Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions     451,209     476,461   5.00 % 7.8     22,560
Corporate securities     178,340     186,715   5.99 % 4.8     10,683
Mortgage-backed securities:                          
  Pass-thrus     386,668     391,623   5.17 % 2.0     19,991
  PACs     145,364     144,280   4.75 % 3.4     6,905
Asset-backed securities     58,748     59,642   5.81 % 5.4     3,413
   
 
 
 
 
    Total fixed maturity securities available for sale     1,798,409     1,853,270   5.07 % 5.6     91,156
Short-term investments     178,915     178,915   0.91 %     1,628
   
 
 
 
 
    Total investments available for sale   $ 1,977,324   $ 2,032,185   4.69 %   $ 92,784
   
 
 
 
 
 
  Fair Value
  %
   
   
   
Maturity Schedule:                      
Due within one year   $ 12,218   0.7 %          
Due in one to five years     151,316   8.2 %          
Due in five to ten years     319,539   17.2 %          
Due in greater than ten years     834,294   45.0 %          
Mortgage-backed securities     535,903   28.9 %          
   
 
           
  Total   $ 1,853,270   100.0 %          

 


 

Fair Value


 

%


 

 


 

 


 

 

Quality Distribution:                      
Treasury   $ 37,247   2.0 %          
Agency     218,655   11.8 %          
AAA     1,156,427   62.4 %          
AA     308,925   16.7 %          
A     128,750   6.9 %          
BBB     3,266   0.2 %          
   
 
           
  Total   $ 1,853,270   100.0 %          

10



Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile
(dollars in millions)

 
   
   
  Outstanding as of June 30, 2004
 
  Gross Par Written
Sector

   
   
  Avg. Rating(8)
  Q2 2004
  Q2 2003
  Net Par
  %
Municipal Finance                          
General obligation bonds   $ 698   $ 137   $ 12,519   13.7 % A+
Tax backed     128     425     9,406   10.3 % A+
Municipal utilities     82     49     10,829   11.9 % A+
Higher education     10     10     966   1.1 % A+
Housing     21     47     1,155   1.3 % AA-
Transportation     109     44     6,865   7.5 % A
Healthcare     429     132     6,286   6.9 % A
Structured municipal(1)             3,266   3.6 % AAA
Investor-owned utilities     108     42     2,110   2.3 % A-
Other municipal(2)     250     27     980   1.1 % A
   
 
 
 
 
  Total Municipal   $ 1,836   $ 914   $ 54,382   59.5 % A+
Structured Finance                          
CDO's(3)   $ 1,066   $ 647   $ 16,751   18.3 % AA+
Consumer receivables(4)     473     216     3,962   4.3 % A+
Single name corporate CDS(5)         30     1,900   2.1 % A+
Commercial Receivables(6)     254     423     5,470   6.0 % AA-
Mortgage-backed & home equity     1,136     344     7,031   7.7 % A+
Other structured finance(7)     145     239     1,855   2.0 % A+
   
 
 
 
 
  Total Structured Finance   $ 3,074   $ 1,899   $ 36,968   40.5 % AA
Total Exposure   $ 4,910   $ 2,813   $ 91,350   100.0 % AA-
   
 
 
 
 

1.
Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

2.
Other municipal: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

3.
Collateralized debt obligations (CDO's) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

4.
Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

5.
Single name corporate CDS includes CDS of Investor-owned utilities.

6.
Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

7.
Other structured Finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.

8.
Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.

11



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Ratings Distribution
(dollars in millions)

Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

Ratings *

  June 30, 2004
Net Par
Outstanding

  %
  December 31, 2003
Net Par
Outstanding

  %
 
AAA   $ 28,272   30.9 % $ 26,374   30.1 %
AA     18,762   20.5 %   17,587   20.1 %
A     29,998   32.8 %   30,008   34.3 %
BBB     12,878   14.1 %   12,051   13.8 %
Below investment grade     1,440   1.6 %   1,505   1.7 %
   
 
 
 
 
    $ 91,350   100 % $ 87,524   100 %
   
 
 
 
 


Assured Guaranty Corp.

Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

Ratings *

  June 30, 2004
Net Par
Outstanding

  %
  December 31, 2003
Net Par
Outstanding

  %
 
AAA   $ 22,369   29.5 % $ 22,268   28.4 %
AA     16,036   21.1 %   16,211   20.7 %
A     25,014   33.0 %   27,208   34.7 %
BBB     10,994   14.5 %   11,258   14.4 %
Below investment grade     1,436   1.9 %   1,454   1.9 %
   
 
 
 
 
    $ 75,849   100 % $ 78,399   100 %
   
 
 
 
 


Assured Guaranty Re International

Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

Ratings *

  June 30, 2004
Net Par
Outstanding

  %
  December 31, 2003
Net Par
Outstanding

  %
 
AAA   $ 5,904   38.1 % $ 4,106   45.0 %
AA     2,726   17.6 %   1,375   15.1 %
A     4,983   32.1 %   2,800   30.7 %
BBB     1,884   12.2 %   793   8.7 %
Below investment grade     4   0.0 %   50   0.6 %
   
 
 
 
 
    $ 15,501   100 % $ 9,125   100 %
   
 
 
 
 

        * Assured Guaranty internal rating

12



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Geographic Distribution
(dollars in millions)

Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio, as of June 30, 2004

U.S.:
  Net Par
Outstanding

  %
  International:
  Net Par
Outstanding

  %
 
California   $ 7,200   7.9 % United Kingdom   $ 4,735   5.2 %
New York     5,584   6.1 % Australia     526   0.6 %
Texas     3,221   3.5 % Brazil     352   0.4 %
Illinois     2,850   3.1 % France     336   0.4 %
Florida     2,803   3.1 % Italy     202   0.2 %
New Jersey     2,338   2.6 % Other     1,962   2.1 %
                 
 
 
Pennsylvania     1,996   2.2 %     Total International   $ 8,113   8.9 %
                 
 
 
Massachusetts     1,857   2.0 %              
Puerto Rico     1,792   2.0 %              
Washington     1,578   1.7 % Total   $ 91,350   100.0 %
                 
 
 
Other—Muni     19,821   21.7 %              
Other—Non Muni     32,197   35.2 %              
   
 
               
  Total U.S.   $ 83,237   91.1 %              
   
 
               


Assured Guaranty Corp.

Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio, as of June 30, 2004

U.S.:
  Net Par
Outstanding

  %
  International:
  Net Par
Outstanding

  %
 
California   $ 6,175   8.1 % United Kingdom   $ 3,680   4.9 %
New York     4,471   5.9 % Australia     431   0.6 %
Texas     2,900   3.8 % Brazil     338   0.4 %
Illinois     2,564   3.4 % France     215   0.3 %
Florida     2,421   3.2 % Italy     186   0.2 %
New Jersey     1,975   2.6 % Other     933   1.2 %
                 
 
 
Pennsylvania     1,790   2.4 %     Total International   $ 5,783   7.6 %
                 
 
 
Massachusetts     1,615   2.1 %              
Puerto Rico     1,444   1.9 %              
Washington     1,245   1.6 % Total   $ 75,849   100.0 %
                 
 
 
Other—Muni     16,110   21.2 %              
Other—Non Muni     27,355   36.1 %              
   
 
               
  Total U.S.   $ 70,066   92.4 %              
   
 
               


Assured Guaranty Re International

Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio, as of June 30, 2004

U.S.:
  Net Par
Outstanding

  %
  International:
  Net Par
Outstanding

  %
 
New York   $ 1,113   7.2 % United Kingdom   $ 1,055   6.8 %
California     1,026   6.6 % Germany     345   2.2 %
Ohio     458   3.0 % France     121   0.8 %
Florida     382   2.5 % Netherlands     117   0.8 %
New Jersey     364   2.3 % Japan     109   0.7 %
Puerto Rico     348   2.2 % Other     582   3.8 %
                 
 
 
Wisconsin     333   2.2 %     Total International   $ 2,330   15.0 %
                 
 
 
Washington     333   2.1 %              
Texas     321   2.1 %              
Alabama     318   2.0 % Total   $ 15,501   100.0 %
                 
 
 
Other—Muni     3,335   21.5 %              
Other—Non Muni     4,841   31.2 %              
   
 
               
  Total U.S.   $ 13,171   85.0 %              
   
 
               

13



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
CDO and Credit Derivative Ratings Distribution
(dollars in millions)

Distribution by Ratings of CDO and Credit Derivative Exposure

Ratings*

  June 30, 2004
Net Par
Outstanding

  %
  December 31, 2003
Net Par
Outstanding

  %
 
AAA   $ 20,785   76.9 % $ 20,703   76.1 %
AA     2,548   9.4 %   2,534   9.3 %
A     2,443   9.0 %   2,575   9.5 %
BBB     1,182   4.4 %   1,216   4.5 %
Below investment grade     79   0.3 %   158   0.6 %
   
 
 
 
 
    $ 27,036   100 % $ 27,187   100 %
   
 
 
 
 


Assured Guaranty Corp.

Distribution by Ratings of CDO and Credit Derivative Exposure

Ratings*

  June 30, 2004
Net Par
Outstanding

  %
  December 31, 2003
Net Par
Outstanding

  %
 
AAA   $ 16,122   79.8 % $ 17,584   74.9 %
AA     2,043   10.1 %   2,342   10.0 %
A     1,273   6.3 %   2,420   10.3 %
BBB     678   3.4 %   1,011   4.3 %
Below investment grade     79   0.4 %   135   0.6 %
   
 
 
 
 
    $ 20,195   100 % $ 23,491   100 %
   
 
 
 
 


Assured Guaranty Re International

Distribution by Ratings of CDO and Credit Derivative Exposure

Ratings*

  June 30, 2004
Net Par
Outstanding

  %
  December 31, 2003
Net Par
Outstanding

  %
 
AAA   $ 4,662   68.1 % $ 3,119   84.4 %
AA     505   7.4 %   192   5.2 %
A     1,170   17.1 %   155   4.2 %
BBB     504   7.4 %   206   5.6 %
Below investment grade       0.0 %   24   0.6 %
   
 
 
 
 
    $ 6,842   100 % $ 3,695   100 %
   
 
 
 
 

*
Assured Guaranty internal rating

14



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
25 Largest Municipal Exposures
as of June 30, 2004
(dollars in millions)

Revenue Source

  Net Par
In Force *

  Rating **
California State General Obligation & Leases   $ 899   BBB
Long Island Power Authority     720   A-
New Jersey State General Obligation & Leases     702   AA
New York City General Obligation     642   A
Denver Colorado Airport System     632   A
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer     606   A
Chicago Illinois General Obligation     589   A+
Massachusetts State GO & Bay Transportation & Leases     559   AA-
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority     544   A-
New York State Metro Trans Auth—Trans Revenue     535   A
New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority     526   AA
San Francisco California Airport     489   A
Energy Northwest (FKA WPPSS)     480   AA-
Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases     467   A-
New York State General Obligation     428   AA
Mental Health Services Facilities—New York     398   AA-
Houston Texas Water & Sewer System     393   A+
Los Angeles County Metro Trans—Sales Tax—1st     356   AA
Dade County Florida Water & Sewer System     327   A
Illinois State General Obligation & Leases     306   AA
Chicago Illinois Public Building—Board of Education     296   A+
Municipal Electric Authority of Georgia     295   A
Los Angeles County California Pension Obligation     274   A-
Pennsylvania State General Obligation     273   AA
Chicago O'Hare International Airport     271   A-
   
   
  Total Top 25 Municipal Finance Exposures   $ 12,008    
   
   
*
Excludes Net Par In Force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company

**
Assured Guaranty internal rating

15



Assured Guaranty Ltd.

25 Largest Structured Finance Exposures
as of June 30, 2004
(dollars in millions)

Revenue Source

  Net Par
In Force *

  Rating **
Private Structured Finance Corporate Pool   $ 884   AAA
Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate     740   AAA
Argent Securities Inc. 2003-W6 — RMBS     680   BBB+
Synthetic CDO — IG ABS     594   AAA
Synthetic CDO — IG ABS     569   AAA
Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate     557   A+
Synthetic Credit Card Master Trust     550   AAA
Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate     500   AAA
Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate     470   AA
Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate     440   AAA
Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate     440   AAA
Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate     430   AAA
Providian Gateway Master Trust     417   BB+
Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate     410   AAA
Private Residential Mortgage Backed Securities     395   AAA
Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate     360   AAA
Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate     360   AAA
Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate     347   AAA
Private Residential Mortgage Backed Securities     312   AAA
Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate     300   AAA
Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate     288   BBB+
Synthetic CDO — IG CDO     281   AAA
Metris Master Credit Card Trust     281   BB
Synthetic CDO — IG Corporate     278   AAA
Synthetic Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities     277   AAA
   
   
Total Top 25 Structured Finance Exposures   $ 11,158    
   
   

*
Excludes Net Par In Force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company

**
Assured Guaranty internal rating

16



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Single Name Corporate / Sovereign CDS Exposures
as of June 30, 2004
(dollars in millions)

Obligor

  Net Par
In Force*

  Rating**
General Electric Company   $ 60   AAA
Japan Republic Sovereign Obligation     50   AA-
American International Group, Inc. (AIG)     50   AAA
Allianz AG     50   AA-
FNMA—Fannie Mae     45   AAA
France Telecom     40   BBB+
Deutsche Telekom AG     40   BBB+
Citigroup, Inc.     39   AA-
Oesterreichische Elektrizitaertswirtschafts AG     36   A
Zurich Insurance Company     35   A
   
 
  Total Top 10 Single Name/Sovereign CDS Exposure   $ 444    
Single Name Corporate CDS by Rating

  2Q 2004
  Gross Par Written
2Q 2003

  Net Par
Outstanding

AAA   $   $     419
AA         30     333
A             878
BBB             269
Below investment grade            
   
 
 
Total   $   $ 30   $ 1,900
 
  Outstanding Net Par
Single Name Corporate CDS Run-off

  2004***
  2005
  2006
  2007
  2008
Beginning Outstanding Par   $ 1,900   $ 1,693   $ 704   $ 518   $ 292
Scheduled Runoff Amount   $ 207   $ 988   $ 186   $ 226   $ 100
   
 
 
 
 
Ending Outstanding Par   $ 1,693   $ 704   $ 518   $ 292   $ 192

*
Excludes Net Par In Force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company

**
Assured Guaranty internal rating

***
Beginning balance as of July 1, 2004

17



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Statutory Capital & Claims Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)

 
  As of June 30, 2004
  As of December 31, 2003
 
  AGC
  AGR(1)
  Consolidated
  AGC
  AGR(1)
  Consolidated
Statutory surplus and reserves                                    
  Unearned premium reserve(2)   $ 449   $ 123   $ 572   $ 467   $ 233   $ 699
  Contingency rserve     438         438     400         400
  Policyholders' surplus     306     601     907     256     560     816
  Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves     32     174     207     55     390     445
   
 
 
 
 
 
    Total policyholders' surplus & reserve   $ 1,225   $ 898   $ 2,123   $ 1,177   $ 1,183   $ 2,360
   
 
 
 
 
 

Claims paying resources

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
  Policyholder's surplus   $ 306   $ 601   $ 907   $ 256   $ 560   $ 816
  Contingency reserve     438         438     400         400
   
 
 
 
 
 
    Statutory capital     744     601     1,345     656     560     1,216
  Unearned premium reserve(2)     449     123     572     467     233     699
  Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves     32     174     207     55     390     445
   
 
 
 
 
 
    Total policyholders' reserves     481     297     778     522     623     1,144
  Present value of installment premium     286     81     367     293     52     345
  Standby line of credit/stop loss     255         255     255         255
   
 
 
 
 
 
    Total claims paying resources   $ 1,766   $ 979   $ 2,745   $ 1,726   $ 1,235   $ 2,960
   
 
 
 
 
 

(1)
AGR numbers are our estimate of US statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements

(2)
Unearned Premium Reserve for AGR is GAAP based and net of Prepaid Reinsurance Premiums

18



Assured Guaranty Corp.
Consolidated GAAP Income Statements
(dollars in thousands)

 
  Quarter Ended
June 30

   
  Six Months Ended
June 30

   
 
 
  % Change
versus
2Q-03

  % Change
versus
1H-03

 
 
  2004
  2003
  2004
  2003
 
Revenues                                  
  Gross written premiums   $ 45,963   $ 61,507   -25 % $ 93,933   $ 115,321   -19 %
  Net written premiums     (6,695 )   100,400   -107 %   40,870     152,745   -73 %
  Net earned premiums   $ 7,089   $ 52,493   -86 % $ 45,022   $ 87,503   -49 %
  Net investment income     13,201     11,356   16 %   25,943     22,807   14 %
  Other income         286   -100 %       507   -100 %
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Total revenues   $ 20,290   $ 64,135   -68 % $ 70,965   $ 110,817   -36 %

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
  Loss and loss adjustment expenses     (22,160 )   14,869   -249 %   (13,447 )   22,904   -159 %
  Profit commission expenses     (181 )   894   -120 %   122     913   -87 %
  Acquisition costs     2,959     16,047   -82 %   12,146     25,832   -53 %
  Other operating expenses     13,697     4,686   192 %   24,613     10,024   146 %
  Goodwill impairment               1,645        
  Interest expense     1,831           1,831        
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Total expenses   $ (3,854 ) $ 36,496   -111 % $ 26,910   $ 59,673   -55 %
 
Income before provision for income taxes

 

 

24,144

 

 

27,639

 

- -13

%

 

44,055

 

 

51,144

 

- -14

%
 
Total provision for income taxes

 

 

5,654

 

 

7,487

 

- -24

%

 

10,604

 

 

13,562

 

- -22

%
 
(1)Operating income

 

$

18,490

 

$

20,152

 

- -8

%

$

33,451

 

$

37,582

 

- -11

%
 
After-tax net realized gains on investments

 

 

(132

)

 

572

 

- -123

%

 

(132

)

 

1,458

 

- -109

%
  After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative instruments     10,960     7,153   53 %   17,415     4,268   308 %
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income

 

$

29,318

 

$

27,877

 

5

%

$

50,734

 

$

43,308

 

17

%
   
 
 
 
 
 
 

(1)
Operating income is defined as net income excluding after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments. Operating ROE represents operating income as a percentage of average shareholder's equity, excluding AOCI. We believe the presentation of operating income and operating ROE enhances the understanding of our results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of our insurance business. We exclude net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, the market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for net income determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).

19



Assured Guaranty Corp.
Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets
(dollars in thousands)

 
  As of

 
 
  June 30,
2004

  December 31,
2003

 
Assets              
  Fixed maturity securities available for sale, at fair value   $ 1,119,864   $ 1,126,723  
  Short-term investments, at cost, which approximates market     84,761     56,738  
   
 
 
  Total investments     1,204,625     1,183,461  
 
Cash

 

 

14,280

 

 

22,075

 
  Accrued investment income     14,374     14,031  
  Deferred acquisition costs     150,934     146,926  
  Premium receivable     35,070     28,434  
  Prepaid reinsurance premiums     20,543     7,254  
  Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses     29,882      
  Funds held under reinsurance contracts     2,081     1,816  
  Goodwill     85,417     87,062  
  Other assets     8,552     13,126  
   
 
 
Total assets   $ 1,565,758   $ 1,504,185  
   
 
 
Liabilities              
  Unearned premium reserve   $ 398,163   $ 389,027  
  Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses     110,234     106,252  
  Profit commissions payable     3,887     4,007  
  Reinsurance balances payable     51,818     5,183  
  Deferred federal income taxes payable     26,514     78,054  
  Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments     (8,652 )   18,141  
  Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts     5,055     5,055  
  Long-term debt     197,311      
  Other liabilities     40,402     19,340  
   
 
 
Total liabilities     824,732     625,059  

Shareholder's equity

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
  Common stock     15,025     15,025  
  Additional paid-in capital     188,428     353,256  
  Accumulated other comprehensive income     24,907     45,285  
  Unearned stock grant compensation     (6,477 )   (2,849 )
  Retained earnings     519,143     468,409  
   
 
 
Total shareholder's equity     741,026     879,126  

Total liabilities & shareholder's equity

 

$

1,565,758

 

$

1,504,185

 
   
 
 

20



Assured Guaranty Corp.
Financial Guaranty Profile
(dollars in millions)

 
  Outstanding as of June 30, 2004
Sector

  Net Par
  %
  Avg. Rating(8)
Municipal Finance              
General obligation bonds   $ 9,942   13.1 % A+
Tax backed     8,207   10.8 % A+
Municipal utilities     8,925   11.8 % A
Higher education     835   1.1 % A+
Housing     996   1.3 % AA-
Transportation     5,951   7.8 % A
Healthcare     5,419   7.1 % A
Structured municipal(1)     2,414   3.2 % AAA
Investor-owned utilities     1,819   2.4 % A-
Other municipal(2)     814   1.1 % A
   
 
 
  Total Municipal   $ 45,322   59.8 % A+

Structured Finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
CDO's(3)   $ 14,394   19.0 % AA+
Consumer receivables(4)     3,604   4.8 % A+
Single name corporate CDS(5)       0.0 % A+
Commercial Receivables(6)     5,043   6.6 % AA-
Mortgage-backed & home equity     5,996   7.9 % A+
Other structured finance(7)     1,489   2.0 % A+
   
 
 
  Total Structured Finance   $ 30,527   40.2 % AA

Total Exposure

 

$

75,849

 

100.0

%

AA-
   
 
 

(1)
Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

(2)
Other municipal: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

(3)
Collateralized debt obligations (CDO's) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

(4)
Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

(5)
Single name corporate CDS: Exposure ceded to Assured Guaranty International Re Ltd in 2004.

(6)
Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

(7)
Other structured Finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.

(8)
Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines

21



Assured Guaranty Corp.
25 Largest Municipal Exposures
as of June 30, 2004
(dollars in millions)

Revenue Source

  Net Par
In Force *

  Rating **
New Jersey State General Obligation & Leases   $ 702   AA
California State General Obligation & Leases     650   BBB
Massachusetts State GO & Bay Transportation & Leases     499   AA-
New York State Metro Trans Auth—Trans Revenue     476   A
Chicago Illinois General Obligation     475   A+
Denver Colorado Airport System     472   A
Long Island Power Authority     467   A-
Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases     466   A-
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority     464   A-
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer     448   A
San Francisco California Airport     434   A
Energy Northwest (FKA WPPSS)     411   AA-
New York City General Obligation     405   A
New York State General Obligation     393   AA
New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority     388   AA
Houston Texas Water & Sewer System     382   A+
Los Angeles County Metro Trans—Sales Tax—1st     314   AA
Illinois State General Obligation & Leases     299   AA
Municipal Electric Authority of Georgia     295   A
Chicago Illinois Public Building—Board of Education     291   A+
Pennsylvania State General Obligation     269   AA
Massachusetts State Turnpike Authority—Metro     267   A-
Dade County Florida Water & Sewer System     264   A
Mental Health Services Facilities—New York     250   AA-
Intermountain Power Agency     243   A+
   
   
  Total Top 25 Municipal Finance Exposures   $ 10,023    
   
   

*
Excludes Net Par In Force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company

**
Assured Guaranty internal rating

22



Assured Guaranty Corp.
25 Largest Structured Finance Exposures
as of June 30, 2004
(dollars in millions)

Revenue Source

  Net Par
In Force *

  Rating **
Private Structured Finance Corporate Pool   $ 884   AAA
Argent Securities Inc. 2003-W6—RMBS     680   BBB+
Synthetic CDO—IG ABS     594   AAA
Synthetic CDO—IG ABS     569   AAA
Synthetic CDO—IG Corporate     557   A+
Synthetic Credit Card Master Trust     550   AAA
Synthetic CDO—IG Corporate     540   AAA
Synthetic CDO—IG Corporate     500   AAA
Synthetic CDO—IG Corporate     470   AA
Synthetic CDO—IG Corporate     440   AAA
Synthetic CDO—IG Corporate     430   AAA
Synthetic CDO—IG Corporate     417   AAA
Private Residential Mortgage Backed Securities     395   AAA
Providian Gateway Master Trust     360   BB+
Synthetic CDO—IG Corporate     360   AAA
Synthetic CDO—IG Corporate     350   AAA
Synthetic CDO—IG Corporate     347   AAA
Synthetic CDO—IG Corporate     344   AAA
Private Residential Mortgage Backed Securities     312   AAA
Synthetic CDO—IG Corporate     300   AAA
Synthetic CDO—IG Corporate     288   BBB+
Synthetic CDO—IG CDO     281   AAA
Metris Master Credit Card Trust     281   BB
Synthetic CDO—IG Corporate     278   AAA
Synthetic Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities     277   AAA
   
   
  Total Top 25 Structured Finance Exposures   $ 10,801    
   
   

*
Excludes Net Par In Force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company

**
Assured Guaranty internal rating

23



Assured Guaranty Re International
Consolidated GAAP Income Statements
(dollars in thousands)

 
  Quarter Ended
June 30

   
  6 Months Ended
June 30

   
 
 
  % Change
versus 1Q-03

  % Change
versus
1H-03

 
 
  2004
  2003
  2004
  2003
 
Revenues                                  
  Gross written premiums   $ 26,969   $ 22,939   18 % $ (20,385 ) $ 85,628   -124 %
  Net written premiums     (40,657 )   18,644   -318 %   (95,093 )   70,372   -235 %
  Net earned premiums   $ (33,828 ) $ 29,654   -214 % $ 14,905   $ 58,232   -74 %
  Net investment income     10,250     12,644   -19 %   21,890     25,293   -13 %
  Other income         2   -100 %   554     360   54 %
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Total revenues   $ (23,578 ) $ 42,300   -156 % $ 37,349   $ 83,885   -55 %

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
  Loss and loss adjustment expenses     (55,258 )   20,927   -364 %   (40,303 )   36,080   -212 %
  Profit commission expenses     5,028     1,787   181 %   10,212     4,737   116 %
  Acquisition costs     5,477     4,348   26 %   9,399     4,830   95 %
  Other operating expenses     6,873     2,766   148 %   8,643     8,993   -4 %
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Total expenses   $ (37,880 ) $ 29,828   -227 % $ (12,049 ) $ 54,640   -122 %
 
Income before provision for income taxes

 

 

14,302

 

 

12,472

 

15

%

 

49,398

 

 

29,245

 

69

%
 
Total provision for income taxes

 

 

(1,596

)

 

1,903

 

- -184

%

 

3,856

 

 

4,721

 

- -18

%

(1)Operating Income

 

$

15,898

 

$

10,569

 

50

%

$

45,542

 

$

24,524

 

86

%
 
After-tax net realized gains on investments

 

 

6,438

 

 

1,201

 

436

%

 

6,469

 

 

1,612

 

301

%
  After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative instruments     (2,001 )   557   -459 %   (5,313 )   3,153   -269 %
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Net income   $ 20,335   $ 12,327   65 % $ 46,698   $ 29,289   59 %
   
 
 
 
 
 
 

(1)
Operating income is defined as net income excluding after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments. Operating ROE represents operating income as a percentage of average shareholder's equity, excluding AOCI. We believe the presentation of operating income and operating ROE enhances the understanding of our results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of our insurance business. We exclude net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, the market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for net income determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).

24



Assured Guaranty Re International
Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets
(dollars in thousands)

 
  As of
 
 
  June 30,
2004

  December 31,
2003

 
Assets              
  Fixed maturity securities available for sale, at fair value   $ 733,406   $ 925,494  
  Short-term investments, at cost, which approximates market     94,154     80,779  
   
 
 
  Total investments     827,560     1,006,273  
 
Cash

 

 

13,266

 

 

9,622

 
  Accrued investment income     6,990     9,727  
  Deferred acquisition costs     32,428     28,297  
  Premium receivable     10,076     155,631  
  Prepaid reinsurance premiums     10,733     7,685  
  Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses     173,157     122,124  
  Value of reinsurance business assumed         14,226  
  Funds held under reinsurance contracts     6,636     6,520  
  Other assets     12,919     7,343  
   
 
 
Total assets   $ 1,093,765   $ 1,367,448  
   
 
 

Liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
  Unearned premium reserve   $ 133,323   $ 240,367  
  Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses     189,243     416,341  
  Profit commissions payable     52,122     67,230  
  Deferred federal income taxes payable     (21,664 )   (22,781 )
  Reinsurance balances payable     27,653     4,857  
  Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments     (7,322 )   (12,112 )
  Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts     52,040     9,635  
  Other liabilities     7,593     31,611  
   
 
 
Total liabilities     432,988     735,148  

Shareholder's equity

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
  Common stock     1,378     1,378  
  Additional paid-in capital     387,862     386,222  
  Accumulated other comprehensive income     13,694     35,799  
  Unearned stock grant compensation     (308 )   (2,552 )
  Retained earnings     258,151     211,453  
   
 
 
Total shareholder's equity     660,777     632,300  

Total liabilities & shareholder's equity

 

$

1,093,765

 

$

1,367,448

 
   
 
 

25



Assured Guaranty Re International
Financial Guaranty Profile
(dollars in millions)

 
  Outstanding as of June 30, 2004
Sector

  Net Par
  %
  Avg. Rating(8)
Municipal Finance              
General obligation bonds   $ 2,576   16.6 % A+
Tax backed     1,199   7.7 % A+
Municipal utilities     1,904   12.3 % A+
Higher education     132   0.8 % AA-
Housing     159   1.0 % A+
Transportation     915   5.9 % A
Healthcare     867   5.6 % AA-
Structured municipal(1)     851   5.5 % AAA
Investor-owned utilities     291   1.9 % A-
Other municipal(2)     165   1.1 % BBB+
   
 
 
  Total Municipal   $ 9,060   58.4 % A+

Structured Finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
CDO's(3)   $ 2,357   15.2 % AAA
Consumer receivables(4)     358   2.3 % A-
Single name corporate CDS(5)     1,900   12.3 % A+
Commercial Receivables(6)     426   2.8 % A+
Mortgage-backed & home equity     1,034   6.7 % A-
Other structured finance(7)     366   2.4 % A+
   
 
 
  Total Structured Finance   $ 6,441   41.6 % AA-

Total Exposure

 

$

15,501

 

100.0

%

AA-
   
 
 

(1)
Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

(2)
Other municipal: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

(3)
Collateralized debt obligations (CDO's) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

(4)
Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

(5)
Single name corporate CDS includes CDS of Investor-owned utilities.

(6)
Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

(7)
Other structured Finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.

(8)
Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.

26



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Annual Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions)

 
  2003
  2002
  2001
  2000
 
GAAP Summary Income Statement Data                          
  Gross premiums written   $ 349.2   $ 417.2   $ 442.9   $ 206.0  
  Net earned premiums     310.9     247.4     293.5     140.7  
  Net investment income     96.3     97.2     99.5     98.1  
  Total expenses     266.1     218.8     282.8     131.8  
  Income before income taxes     246.2     83.2     110.1     118.1  
  Net income     214.5     72.6     63.8     93.2  
  Operating income     127.3     115.7     96.1     87.6  
  Net income per diluted common share     2.86     0.97     0.85     1.24  
  Operating income per diluted common share     1.70     1.54     1.28     1.17  
   
 
 
 
 
GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data                          
  Total investments and cash   $ 2,222.1   $ 2,061.9   $ 1,710.8   $ 1,549.6  
  Total assets     2,857.9     2,719.9     2,322.1     1,913.7  
  Unearned premium reserve     625.4     613.3     500.3     444.6  
  Loss and LAE reserves     522.6     458.8     401.1     171.0  
  Long-term debt     75.0     75.0     150.0     150.0  
  Shareholders' equity     1,437.6     1,257.2     1,061.6     994.5  
  Book value per share     19.17     16.76     14.15     13.26  
   
 
 
 
 
AGC Statutory Data                          
  Net income   $ 66.6   $ 46.2   $ 44.9   $ 60.5  
  Policyholders' surplus     255.6     287.0     334.0     323.4  
  Contingency reserve     400.0     307.0     223.1     180.6  
   
 
 
 
 
    Statutory Capital     655.6     594.0     557.2     504.0  
  Unearned premium reserve     466.7     369.9     351.5     330.2  
  Present value of installment premiums     293.3     220.4     149.2     89.1  
    Premium resources     760.0     590.3     500.7     419.3  
  Loss and LAE reserves     58.9     42.4     18.2     16.0  
  Standby line of credit / stop loss     255.0     415.0     450.0     250.0  
   
 
 
 
 
    Total Claims-Paying Resources     1,729.5     1,641.6     1,526.1     1,189.3  
   
 
 
 
 
Financial Ratios                          
 
Consolidated GAAP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
    Loss and LAE ratio     46.5 %   48.6 %   60.5 %   21.6 %
    Expense ratio     37.2 %   35.5 %   30.6 %   61.2 %
    Combined ratio     83.7 %   84.1 %   91.1 %   82.8 %
 
AGC Statutory

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
    Loss and LAE ratio     25.9 %   35.4 %   18.3 %   -0.7 %
    Expense ratio     31.5 %   44.8 %   50.2 %   45.8 %
    Combined ratio     57.4 %   80.2 %   68.5 %   45.1 %
   
 
 
 
 
Other Financial Information                          
Net debt service outstanding   $ 130,047   $ 124,082   $ 117,909   $ 102,744  
Net par amount outstanding     87,524     80,394     75,249     65,756  
   
 
 
 
 

27




QuickLinks

Quarterly Operating Supplement Second Quarter 2004 June 30, 2004
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Selected Financial Highlights (dollars in thousands except per share amounts)
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Consolidated GAAP Income Statements (dollars in thousands)
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets (dollars in thousands)
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Segment Results (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Segment Results (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Guaranty PVP, Par Written and Par Outstanding (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Guaranty PVP, Par Written and Par Outstanding (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Fixed Income Investment Portfolio as of June 30, 2004 (dollars in thousands)
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Ratings Distribution (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Assured Guaranty Re International
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Geographic Distribution (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Assured Guaranty Re International
Assured Guaranty Ltd. CDO and Credit Derivative Ratings Distribution (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp.
Assured Guaranty Re International
Assured Guaranty Ltd. 25 Largest Municipal Exposures as of June 30, 2004 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Largest Single Name Corporate / Sovereign CDS Exposures as of June 30, 2004 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Statutory Capital & Claims Paying Resources (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Consolidated GAAP Income Statements (dollars in thousands)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets (dollars in thousands)
Assured Guaranty Corp. Financial Guaranty Profile (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. 25 Largest Municipal Exposures as of June 30, 2004 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Corp. 25 Largest Structured Finance Exposures as of June 30, 2004 (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Re International Consolidated GAAP Income Statements (dollars in thousands)
Assured Guaranty Re International Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets (dollars in thousands)
Assured Guaranty Re International Financial Guaranty Profile (dollars in millions)
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Annual Financial and Statistical Data (dollars in millions)
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-----END PRIVACY-ENHANCED MESSAGE-----