EX-99.(C)(8) 2 dex99c8.htm PRESENTATION OF GOLDMAN SACHS INC., DATED FEBRUARY 14, 2008 Presentation of Goldman Sachs Inc., dated February 14, 2008

Exhibit (c)(8)

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

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   Presentation to     LOGO
   Executing A Potential Tercica Buyout
  

Goldman Sachs Paris Inc. et Cie

14-Feb-2008

  

 

 

 


STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

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Table of Contents

 

 

 

 

I.      Executive Summary

 

II.     Executing a Buyout of Tercica’s Publicly Held Shares

 

III.    Next Steps

 

Appendix A: Additional Materials

 

 

Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice. In addition, we mutually agree that, subject to applicable law, you may disclose any aspects of any potential transaction or structure described herein that are necessary to support any U.S. federal income tax benefits with no limitations imposed by Goldman Sachs.

 

 

 


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I.      Executive Summary

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Executive Summary    1


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Executive Summary

Potential Tercica Buyout

 

 

 

 

n      A buyout of Tercica’s publicly held shares would be a visible and “public” process involving a diverse group of stakeholders with differing interests. It would be challenging for Ipsen to control the “agenda” and the timetable of such a potential transaction once the process is launched

 

n       It would be crucial for Ipsen to develop upfront in this potential process a precise price strategy for the bid, including a clear walk-away price, in order to negotiate effectively

 

—     Event-driven and activist investors would enter the Tercica stock upon rumours or upon the announcement of a transaction and assemble thereafter elements for an aggressive valuation of Tercica, with the objective of driving up the bid price

 

n      In light of existing relationships between Ipsen and Tercica, the preferred approach tactic would be friendly, informal and confidential. Notwithstanding the good historical relationships between both firms, negotiations could however become difficult due to the strong focus of US boards of directors on their fiduciary duties

 

n       In terms of transaction structure, Ipsen’s objective could be to secure an agreement from Tercica’s Board on a one-step merger structure

 

—     However, the ultimate deal structure would be to some extent driven by the dynamics of the negotiation process and a two-step tender/merger structure also represents standard practice in the US

 

—     If Ipsen were to launch a hostile offer on Tercica, there would be no certainty that Ipsen could reach the minimum 60% ownership threshold

 

n      At this stage, financing for the transaction would be expected to come from a club deal including Ipsen’s relationship banks

 

n      Strategic rationale for acquiring Tercica is compelling: it addresses some of Ipsen’s challenges in terms of growth and geographic profile while strengthening the company’s endocrinology portfolio. From a financial perspective, the transaction would be expected to be EPS dilutive until 2010

 

 

 

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II.     

  Executing a Buyout of Tercica’s Publicly Held Shares

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Key Execution Considerations on the Process

 

 

 

 

(1)    Who are the key parties involved?

 

(2)    What is the potential price strategy for the bid?

 

(3)    Tactically, how should Ipsen approach Tercica?

 

(4)    What is the potential deal structure and its key terms?

 

(5)    What is the sequence of events in a friendly scenario?

 

(6)    What is the likelihood of an unfriendly scenario?

 

(7)    What are the options to finance the transaction?

 

(8)    How will the acquisition impact Ipsen’s financial performance?

 

(9)    What is the best way to retain Tercica’s employees?

 

(10)   How will Ipsen communicate to the market?

 

(11)   What are the potential risks for Ipsen?

 

 

 

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(1) Who Are the Key Parties Involved?

 

 

 

Key Takeaways

 

n      A buyout of Tercica’s public shareholders involves a highly visible process encompassing a large number of Tercica stakeholders whose interests will not necessarily be aligned with those of Ipsen

 

—     Special Committee of Tercica’s Board of Directors, driven by its fiduciary duty

 

—     Management and employees, focused on maximising option proceeds and ensuring their future

 

—     Shareholders, including aggressive event-driven / activist investors and proxy advisory firms

 

—     Tercica’s advisory team, driven by value maximisation and deal certainty

 

—     Generalist / specialized press

 

—     Regulators

 

n      Once the transaction enters the public domain, Ipsen will not be in a position to control fully the “agenda” with such a diverse and driven group of stakeholders

 

n      To handle effectively this situation, Ipsen has put in place a core team of M&A advisors (Goldman Sachs, Freshfields). If the Board decides to move forward on the exploration of a potential transaction with Tercica, further experts will be brought on-board (public relations, proxy solicitor, HR advisor)

 

 

 

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(1) Who Are the Key Parties Involved?

Tercica “Universe”

 

 

        

Tercica Management

 

Tercica Board of Directors

 

Top Tercica Shareholders1

   

n     John A. Scarlett

n     Ross G. Clark

n     Richard A. King

n     Ajay Bansal

n      Stephen N.

   Rosenfield

n     Thorsten von

   Stein

 

n     Andrew Grethlein

n     Susan Wong

n     George Bright

n     Sandra L. Blethen

n     Gordon Treadway

n     William Yates

 

n     John A. Scarlett

n     Ross G. Clark

n     Alexander Barkas*

n     Karin Eastham*

 

n     Dr. Henner*

n      Mark Leschly*

n     David Mahoney*

n     Christophe Jean

 

n     Ipsen

n     MPM Capital

n     AIM Trimark

   Investments

n     Prospect Venture

   Partners

n     Rho Capital Partners

 

n     MedImmune Ventures

n     MedImmune

n     State of Wisconsin

   Investment Board

n      T. Rowe Price

   Associates

n     Barclays Global

   Investors

             
             
        * Independent Director (according to Nasdaq listing standards)    
             
         

Tercica Core Advisory Team

 

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Event driven Investors / Activists

   

n     Investment Bank

n     Legal advisors

n     Proxy solicitor (Innisfree)

   

n     Only upon takeover rumours / announcement of

   transaction

         

 

Proxy Voting Advisory

     
   

n     Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS), Glass

   Lewis

   
         

Regulatory Bodies

 

Generalist / Specialized Press

 

Tercica Equity Analysts

   

n     Food and Drug Administration (FDA)

n     Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

n     Federal Trade Commission (FTC) (application of

   the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements

   Act)

 

1   Source: Company, Thomson, Feb-2008

 

n     Wall Street Journal

n     Financial Times

n     BioCentury

 

n     Collins Stewart: Andrew Fein

n     FBR: Jim Reddoch

n     Lazard Capital Markets: Matthew Osborne

n     Lehman Brothers: Jim Birchenough

n     Baird: Christopher Raymond

n     Cowen: Eric Schmidt

n     Stanford Group: Biren Amin

 

 

 

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(1) Who Are the Key Parties Involved?

          Ipsen’s External Advisory Team

 

 

    

Current Core M&A Advisory Team

    Identity    Role
   
 

Goldman Sachs

Investment Banking

  

n      Overall process management

n      Advice on key strategic / tactical decisions (including bid tactics, structuring)

n      Negotiation

n      Valuation

n      Assist Ipsen in due diligence (if applicable)

 

   
 

Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer

Legal

  

n      Preparation of legal documentation

n      Structuring / negotiation

n      Assist Ipsen in due diligence (if applicable)

    

 

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Advisors to be Appointed upon Decision to Proceed with the Transaction

    Identity    Role
   
  Public Relations   

n      Advice on public communication strategies (press releases, presentation to the market / investors)

n      Role of “intermediary” between the press and Ipsen to ensure proper coverage and convey key messages

   
  Proxy Solicitor   

n      Solicit favorable votes from Tercica shareholders in case of a shareholders’ general meeting

n      Monitoring of tendering intentions in case of a tender offer

   
  Legal advisor to GS   

n      Financial advisor to retain its own US legal counsel

   
  Human Resources Advisory   

n      Propose a policy for the retention of key employees

 

 

 

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(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

 

 

 

Key Takeaways

 

n      To assess the attractiveness of Ipsen’s potential bid on Tercica, investors would likely focus on Tercica’s trading levels prior to announcement and “standard” premia in US biotechnology takeovers

 

n      The day an Ipsen-Tercica transaction is announced, Tercica’s shareholder base would most probably change significantly overnight and event-driven / activist investors would enter the stock

 

—     Such investors, focused on value, would build an aggressive value case “justifying” a high premium

 

n      Ipsen should be ready to address discrepancies between Tercica’s business plan and market consensus

 

n      Ipsen needs to have a clearly defined price discipline before entering a potential Tercica takeover

 

—     Pressure is high during the takeover process to increase bid price

 

—     Bidders with a clear notion of their “walk-away” price are more disciplined bidders and less inclined to concede unwarranted increases in the bid price

 

 

 

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(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

          Potential Price / Valuation Benchmarks

 

 

  Valuation Benchmarks   Specific Drivers
   
  Stock Related Metrics  

n    Share Price

—     Spot price

—     Averages (1-month / 3-month / 6-month)

—     52-week high / low

n    Shareholders cost base

—     Historical Shares Traded at Various Prices

—     Main shareholders entry point

—     Options strike price for employees

 

   
  Public Market Benchmarks  

n    Research analysts’ target prices

n    Biotech peers trading multiples

 

   
  M&A Benchmarks  

n    Comparisons with precedent transactions in the biotechnology space (i.e., transaction multiples)

n    Share price premia paid in the US and biotechnology precedents

 

   
  Fundamental Valuation  

n    Intrinsic valuation (DCF)

n    Valuation of potential synergies

 

 

 

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(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

          Research Analyst Views on Tercica

 

 

 

    

Target Price as of 31-Jul-2007 ($)

  

Current Target Price ($)

  LOGO    LOGO
    

Analyst Recommendation as of 31-Jul-2007

  

Current Analysts Recommendation

  LOGO    LOGO
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n      Target Price of research analysts are in $7 - $10 per share range

n      Median target price of $9 represents a 32% premium to current share price of $6.81 / share

n      70% of brokers have a Buy recommendation on Tercica

 

 

 

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(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

          DCF Analysis: Understanding / Addressing Projections Discrepancies

 

 

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n      Significant variations among brokers’ sales and revenues forecasts, especially for Increlex

n      Tercica’s projections are significantly above brokers’ consensus; Tercica may discount its projections for risks to a lesser extent than its equity analysts, particularly for negotiation purposes

 

 

 

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(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

          Selected Price / Valuation Benchmarks

 

 

 

        

Valuation Range ($ per share)

  

Comment

  52 Week Trading Range                         LOGO   

n      Minimum of $4.71 s of 01-Aug-2007

n      Maximum of $7.77 as of 05-Nov-2007

 

   
  Research Analysts Target Price                                 LOGO   

n      Minimum target price of $7.0 for Robert Baird and FBR (02-Nov-2007)

n      Maximum target price of $10.0 for Stanford Group (20-Dec-2007) and Lazard Capital (02-Nov-2007)

   
  US Minority Buyouts Precedents Since 2000                                     LOGO   

n      Min: share price of $6.81 as of 12-Feb-2008 + 15.9% premium (median of initial premium)

n      Max: share price of $6.81 as of 12-Feb-2008 + 25.0% premium (median of final premium)

   
  Premium in Precedent Biotech Transactions                                         LOGO   

n      Min: share price of $6.81 as of 12-Feb-2008 + 35.1% premium (median of premium)

n      Max: share price of $6.81 as of 12-Feb-2008 + 50.0% premium (median of premium)

   
  “Desktop” DCF Valuation (Brokers’ Consensus)         LOGO   

n      DCF valuation based on brokers’ consensus of $9.1 / share

n      Additional $3.0 / share upside from Combo

n      Wacc of 10.0%, 3.5% perpetuity growth rate

 

 

n      Selected benchmarks suggest that shareholders could try to articulate a case for an equity valuation of Tercica above $10 per share

n      Besides the biotech premium analysis and the target prices of selected brokers, shareholders could possibly rely on DCF scenario yielding rich equity values

 

 

 

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(3) Tactically, How Should Ipsen Approach Tercica?

 

 

Key Takeaways

 

 

n      Before making any potential approaches to Tercica’s CEO, Ipsen needs a clear view on:

 

—     Proper timing: not a major constraint since no material news flow expected from Tercica in 2008

 

—     Potential clearing price and walk-away price

 

—     Consultation Notice contractual process: Tercica has a 30-day deadline to reach an agreement

 

—     “Plan B”: if initial discussions are unfruitful or Tercica forces rapid public disclosure

 

n      In light of the existing business relationships between Ipsen and Tercica and the importance of maintaining such relationships, preferred approach tactic would be friendly, informal and confidential

 

—     In confidential negotiations, there are risks of leaks and disclosure. Experience in the US context suggests nonetheless that it is possible to maintain confidentiality for a limited number of weeks

 

—     Process framework to be vetted by lawyers to ensure that none of the Board decisions, discussions between principals or document exchanges trigger public disclosure (including 13D for Ipsen)

 

n       Notwithstanding the historical quality of the relationship / dialogue with Tercica, Ipsen should assume that the discussions / negotiations will rapidly become difficult

 

—     Strong litigation pressure in the United States context forces members of a Special Committee of the Board of Directors to be extremely focused on value maximisation and fairness of process

 

 

 

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(3) Tactically, How Should Ipsen Approach Tercica?

          Contractual Agreements with Tercica: Path to 38% Ownership

 

 

 

            Stake
(%)
    Acq.
Price
($)
  Premium
(%)
    # of
shares
(m)
  Amount
(m)
  Cash
Amount
(m)
     

Cum.

Stake (%)

         
               
                     

n      

  30% premium over the 20-days weighted average share price
 

1)

 

Initial Equity

Investment (Basic)

  17.2 %   $ 6.17   30 %   12.5   61.8   61.8  

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  17.2 %  

n      

  12.5m shares represent 24.3% of current total shares outstanding of 51.4m shares
               
               
 

2)

 

Convert 1 -Upfront

Payment

(Fully Diluted)

  4.7 %   $ 7.41   9 %   3.4   $25.0   LOGO     21.9 %  

 

n      

 

 

Convertible notes 1 and 2 with no cash outflow for Ipsen

                 
                 
 

3)

 

Convert 2 -

Milestones

(Fully Diluted)

  7.1 %   $ 7.41   9 %   5.1   30.0       29.0 %    
               
               
 

4)

 

Convert 3 - Cash Investment

(Fully Diluted)

  2.8 %   $ 7.41   9 %   2.1   $15.2   10.2     31.8 %    
               
               
 

5)

 

Warrants

(Fully Diluted)

  6.8 %   $ 7.41   9 %   4.9   $36.7   24.6     38.6 %  

n      

n      

 

Exercisable by 31-Dec-2010

Resulting fully diluted shares: 75.0m

               
                   
      Ending Stake     28.1     96.6     38.6 %    
                   
 

Note: Assuming Reference share price of $4.75 (Average 15 days as of 17-Jul-06)

          Fully Diluted shares including: 10.6m of shares from Ipsen convertibles (incl. accrued interests),

          5.4m of options as of Dec-2007 and 0.3m of Kingsbridge warrants

 

 

 

 

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(3) Tactically, How Should Ipsen Approach Tercica?

          Contractual Agreements with Tercica: Governance & Rights

 

          Selection of Relevant Clauses

 

 

 

 

n      Board representation: 2 seats out of 9

 

n      Protective rights:

 

—     Right to veto material strategic transactions by Tribeca

 

—     Board to approve the acquisition of more than 9.9% of capital by third party (poison pill)

 

—     If Ipsen wants to increase its stake above 40% after 1 year:

 

–       Need to consult Tribeca’s board to reach friendly deal (Consultation Notice, No offer before 30 days of delivery of Consultation Notice and No later than 120 days)

 

–       If no agreement, capacity to launch bid (conditioned on increasing stake to at least 60%)

 

n      Change of control

 

—     For Ipsen’s protection, cross-licensing agreement includes termination right in case of change of control

 

 

 

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(3) Tactically, How Should Ipsen Approach Tercica?

          Nature of Approach

 

 

 

  Approach: Letter to the Tercica Board vs. Informal “Verbal” Approach
     Options   Description   Pros   Cons
   
 

Letter to Tercica Board:

Aggressive / Soft Consultation Notice

 

n      Notice Letter addressed to Tercica’s Board

n      Soft or aggressive wording

n      Content of letter to impact the requirement for disclosure

 

n      Triggers 30-day period, setting a deadline

n      If disclosed, puts pressure on Tercica to conclude a deal

 

n      Creates unchecked speculation on “clearing price”

n      Forces the other side to act defensively

n      If disclosed, it will be more difficult for Ipsen to back-out from a PR perspective

   
  Informal “Verbal” Approach  

n      No formal Notice Letter

n      Focus on non-formal exchanges

n      Tercica may require a formal letter at some stage

 

n      Maintain sentiment conducive to positive interactions

n      Preserve option to back-out or to pursue more aggressive pathways at a later date

 

n      Gives more time to the other side to plan defensive actions

n      Potentially longer discussions

n      Tercica could make first disclosure and control public positioning of the transaction

n      Difficulty to control timing of leaks

n      Unable to gain consensus amongst shareholders on deal price

 

  Private Discussions vs. Public Disclosure
        Pros   Cons
   
  Private Discussion  

n      Avoids disturbing discussion in an early stage

n      Limits pressure to do deal on parties

 

n      Limits incentive of Tercica Board to progress quickly in discussions

n      Unable to gain consensus amongst shareholders on deal price

   
  Early Public Disclosure  

n      Greater visibility on market price expectations

n      Ability to approach main shareholders early to assess clearing price

n      If disclosed, puts pressure on Tercica to conclude a deal

n      Precludes risk of disclosure on another party’s terms

 

n      Opens doors to potential interlopers

n      Activists will have an opportunity to interfere with the share price early in the process

  LOGO

 

 

n      It is usual practice in the USA to initiate such a transaction with a one-to-one meeting between both CEOs

n      Informal approach / private discussions provide flexibility to Ipsen and is consistent with current relationship between both companies. However, this strategy allows Tercica to control the timing and leaks can force public disclosure at any time

 

 

 

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(3) Tactically, How Should Ipsen Approach Tercica?

Current Relationship and Associated Contractual Constraints

 

 

Permitted offers and stock purchases
n    Obligation to serve Consultation Notice to Tercica’s Board before launching a public offer without consent
  

—     Sets a deadline for Tercica of 30 days to reach an agreement

  

—     In case talks fail, Ipsen has right to launch a public offer

n    Hostile public offer has to comply with three constraints
  

—     Announced at the latest 120 days after Consultation Notice is served

  

—     Ipsen must commit to exercise warrants and convert notes

  

—     Affiliation agreement requires that Threshold for public offer to be accepted is 60% (calculated as if warrants and notes had been converted / exercised)

Anticipating challenges to the process
n   

Requirement  of a “fair” process and a “fair” price for the transaction

  

—     Ipsen should assume that Tercica will set up and Independent Committee of the Board

LOGO

n    Based on the contractual terms of Ipsen’s relationship with Tercica and on Ipsen’s presence on Tercica’s Board, a friendly approach through Tercica’s Board of Directors seems preferable (in the initial stages)

 

 

 

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(4) What Is the Deal Structure and Its Key Terms?

 

 

 

 

Key Takeaways

 

n      One-step mergers and two-step tender/mergers are widely used transaction structures in the USA

 

—     Neither of these two structures is perceived by practitioners as being “better”: both have pros / cons

 

—     Ultimate transaction structure is often dictated by the specific dynamics of the negotiation process

 

—     Ipsen’s Board should a priori remain open to both options

 

n      Besides price, the potential terms being negotiated with the Tercica Special Committee would include:

 

—     “Majority of the Remainder”

 

—     Go-Shop / No-Shop clauses vs. Futility Statements: Ipsen’s veto rights on strategic transactions and its ability to block the acquisition of more than 9.9% of Tercica’s capital by a 3rd party limits Tercica’s ability to “shop”

 

—     Warranties

 

—     Stock options

 

n      Impact of upfront voting / support agreements remains somewhat theoretical due to degree of revocability

 

n      “Base case” could be for Ipsen to seek to combine an informal / private approach with the objective of securing agreement on a one-step merger structure

 

 

 

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(4) What Is the Potential Deal Structure and Its Key Terms?

          One Step Merger vs. Two-Step Tender Offer

 

 

 

     Options   Description   Key Parameters   Considerations
   
  Two-Step: Negotiated Tender Offer + Merger  

n      First step: recommended tender offer

—     Ipsen purchases Tercica’s shares in exchange for cash by way of an offer directly to Tercica’s shareholders

n      Second step: merger

—     Merger to squeeze-out remaining shareholders takes place thereafter

 

n      The first step (tender offer) can be completed relatively quickly (if no regulatory delays) within as little as 20 business days following commencement of offer

—     Opportunity to extend tender offer period to reach targeted shareholding (ideally 90%)

n      Short-form merger is permissible upon acquisition by Ipsen of 90% of Tercica’s capital

n      Long form merger when <90% is acquired, leading to longer execution time

 

n      Special Committee negotiations for the positive recommendation can be difficult

n      Ipsen in the “driver’s seat” during the tender offer since it is in “direct” contact with the Tercica shareholders

n       Rule 13e-3 going private disclosure

n      SEC review likely

n      Non-tendering shareholders squeezed out in short form merger may seek appraisal rights

n      Financing needs to be in place at closing of the offer

n      Acceptance by “majority of remainder” often may be condition of offer

n      Subject to hold up by opposition if “majority of the remainder” condition

n      Optionality to have majority of shares without full merger

   
  One-Step: Negotiated Merger  

n      ALL Tercica’s stock is acquired in a one-step transaction pursuant to which Tercica merges with Ipsen (or one of its subsidiaries)

 

n      Avoids complications of tender offer (e.g., uncertainty to reach the 90%)

n      Financing only needs to be in place at closing of merger

 

n      Negotiations with the Special Committee on the merger agreement can be difficult

n      Rule 13e-3 going private disclosure

n      SEC review likely

n      Shareholders may seek appraisal rights

n      Subject to hold up by opposition if “majority of the remainder” condition

  LOGO

 

 

n      Both deal structures are considered “common practice “ in the USA and a decision on One-Step vs Two-Step is not required at this stage and would depend on a number of considerations (e.g. financing structure, Delaware law and deal execution issues)

n      While a negotiated merger is likely to result in a second price negotiation with shareholders (following the initial Board negotiation), it is likely to establish and control price expectations in the market versus a tender offer

 

 

 

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(4) What Is the Potential Deal Structure and Its Key Terms?

          Main Terms to Be Discussed

 

 

 

  Selected Terms    Comments
   
  Majority of the Remainder
Requirement
  

n      Would require the approval (in the case of a merger) or the participation (in the case of a tender offer) of a majority of the Tercica shares not controlled by Ipsen in the merger / tender

n      This requirement is technically higher than the minimum threshold stated in the Affiliation Agreement (which contemplates a potential 60% level at which Tercica would remain traded)

—     Pros and cons of this term should be discussed

 

   
  Voting / Support Agreements   

n      Voting agreements can be utilised in the case of merger to line-up support prior to transaction announcement

n      Support Agreements are the equivalent, in the context of a tender offer, to an agreement to tender

—     Key to the determination of these agreements is the degree to which they are / are not revocable

 

   
  Top-up Rights   

n      Refers to an obligation upon the target involved in a two-step merger to sell new shares to the bidder following achievement of the minimum threshold to assist the bidder in reaching the 90% holding and thus in qualifying for a short-form merger

 

   
  Other Offers   

n      Ipsen and Tercica will need to agree as to how and when Tercica can solicit or entertain other offers as part of its duties to maximize purchase price

 

   
  Warranties   

n      Warranties may drive disclosure and provide some degree of protection for Ipsen prior to completion, but there are no post-closing indemnities available in US public acquisitions

 

   
  Treatment of Tercica stock options   

n      Cancellation, substitution or cash-out of the Tercica stock options will need to be determined, as does post-closing retention and incentive schemes

 

 

 

LOGO

 

 

  n Transaction terms should be assessed within the overall framework of the transaction

 

 

 

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(4) What Is the Potential Deal Structure and Its Key Terms?

          Overview of Key Documents

 

 

 

    Document  

Two Step Tender Offer +

Merger

  One Step Merger   Key Content
   
  Consultation notice   [ü]   [ü]  

n      Request Tercica Board to open discussion and statement of terms

   
  Voting/support agreement   [ü]   [ü]  

n      Agreement to support bid

n      Address impact of superior bid/termination rights

   
  Merger agreement   ü   ü  

n      Agreed price and terms of transaction

   
  Schedule 14D-9   ü    

n      Tercica Board recommendation with respect to bid

   
  Schedule TO/13D/13E3   ü    

n      SEC mandated market disclosure

—     Detailed terms and conditions

—     Means of acceptance

—     Details of affiliation with Tercica given significant ownership

   
  Financing documents   ü   ü  

n      Market disclosure

—     Financing availability

—     Key terms of the facility

   
 

SEC information

statement on Schedule 14C

  ü    

n      Disclosure relating to the shareholder meeting of Tercica in the absence of a proxy statement

   
  Proxy statement     ü  

n      Disclosure and request for proxy to vote

 

 

 

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(5) What Is the Sequence of Events of a Friendly Scenario?

 

 

 

 

Key Takeaways

 

n      Ipsen’s Board should bear in mind that both one-step and two-step processes are “lengthy” procedures

 

—     Two-step tender+merger: 5-6 weeks post agreement (assuming no regulatory delays) and a short form merger

 

—     One-step merger: 8-18 weeks post agreement (assuming no regulatory delays)

 

n      In such a public process characterised by litigation, regulatory reviews and the unpredictability of Tercica’s negotiating strategy, the timetable is bound to be a “moving target”

 

n      Ipsen’s Board of Directors would remain closely involved in the supervision of the process and provide guidance at the relevant inflection points. For example:

 

—     Decision to further explore a takeover of Tercica through an informal / confidential approach

 

—     Decision to serve the Consultation Notice

 

—     Approval of the agreement reached between Ipsen management and Tercica

 

—     Approval of any changes in the terms of the transaction (e.g., increase bid price during “2nd round” negotiation with investors

 

 

 

Executing a Buyout of Tercica’s Publicly Held Shares    22


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Goldman Sachs

5 What Is the Sequence of Events of a Friendly Scenario?

2 -Step Tender Offer: Consultation Notice Served, 90%+ Shares Tendered

February March April May June July

Week 1 Week 2 Weeks 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 Week 15 Week 16 Week 17 Week 18 Week 19

Ipsen Corporate Events

Board of Directors (26-Feb)

2007 Results (27-Feb)

Board final approval to send Consult. Notice (23-Mar)

Q1 2008 Sales (29-Apr)

Board to approve terms of the transaction (18-May)

AGM (4-Jun)

Board to review the outcome of TO (29-Jun)

Tercica Corporate Events

2007 Results (26-Feb)

Q1 2008 Results (Early May)

Process

Preparatory phase

Informal approach - CEO to CEO (19-Mar)

Consult. Notice sent to T. Board (24-Mar)

Consult. Notice review by T. Board (30 days)

Nego. with Board on the terms of the transac.

Announcement of the transaction (19-May)

Schedule TO/13D/13E3 Filed (29-May)

Tender Offer Period Tender Offer Period

Filing of Schedule 14D-9 (Commencement Day +10) (13-Jun)

Tender Offer closed (Commencement Day + 20) (29-Jun)

Announcement of short form merger (assuming 90% shares tendered) (30-Jun)

Financing

Preparation of lending banks presentation

Contacts/meetings with banks

Submission of firm proposals (23-Mar)

Commited Financing (24-Mar)

Documentation

Preparation of Consultation Notice

Financing Documents

Preparation of Schedule TO/13D/13E3

Preparation of Schedule 14D-9 by T. Board

Preparation of Merger Agreement

Market/Investor Communication on Transaction

Ipsen press release on offer (19-May)

Market/investor presentation (19-May)

Investor roadshow

Executing a Buyout of Tercica’s Publicly Held Shares 23


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Goldman Sachs

5 What Is the Sequence of Events of a Friendly Scenario?

1-Step Merger

February March April May June July August

Week1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 Week 15 Week 16 Week 20 Week 21 Week 22 Week 23 Week 24 Week 25 Week 26

Ipsen Corporate Events

Board of Directors (26-Feb)

2007 Results (27-Feb)

Board final approval to send Consult. Notice (23-Mar)

Q1 2008 Sales (29-Apr)

Board to approve terms of the transaction (18-May)

AGM (4-Jun)

Ipsen Board statutus update on process (11-Aug)

Tercica Corporate Events

2007 Results (26-Feb)

Q1 2008 Results (Early May)

Process

Preparatory phase

Informal approach - CEO to CEO (19-Mar)

Consult. Notice sent to T. Board (24-Mar)

Consult. Notice review by T. Board (30 days)

Nego. with T. Board on the terms of the transac.

Announcement of the transaction (19-May)

SEC review period SEC Review Period

Respond to SEC Comments

Proxy sollicitation (20 days after clearing proxy materials with SEC)

Shareholder meeting (20-Aug)

Closing transaction (21-Aug)

Financing

Preparation of lending banks presentation

Contacts/meetings with banks

Submission of firm proposals (23-Mar)

Commited Financing (24-Mar)

Documentation

Preparation of Consultation Notice

Financing Documents

Preparation of Merger Agreement, 13D, 13E3

Proxy materials

Market/Investor Communication on Transaction

Ipsen press release on offer (19-May)

Market/investor presentation (19-May)

Investor roadshow

Executing a Buyout of Tercica’s Publicly Held Shares 24


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LOGO  

 

(5) What Is the Sequence of Events of a Friendly Scenario?

          Potential Sources of Delays in the Process

 

 

  Even within the framework of a friendly scenario, the buy-out of public shareholders in Tercica can experience delays
  Potential Sources of Delay    Considerations
   
  Tactics to slowdown pace of negotiation   

n      Tercica may seek to leverage on the full 30-day negotiation period contractually provided by the agreements between Ipsen and Tercica

   
  Resistance from Tercica shareholders   

n      Objection to the transaction among Tercica shareholders may result in failure to reach the 90% required threshold to effect a quick short-form merger post completion of the tender offer

n      ISS

   
  Litigation by activist shareholders   

n      An injunction challenging the fairness of the procedure and / or the bid price would hold up the timetable

   
  Appraisal by shareholders   

n      Challenge by shareholders in the form of appraisal would hold finalisation of the acquisition process for determination of the merits of their appraisal claim

   
  SEC review   

n      Negative comments from the SEC on the offer documentation would hold up the timetable whilst suitable revisions are made and documents re-circulated (to the extent already circulated)

   
  Amendments to the offer   

n      A material change to the offer may result in an extension of the offer period (depending upon the point in time during the offer period that the change is made)

   
  Regulatory approval   

n      Absent other regulatory filings, antitrust review would lengthen the time to completion of the acquisition

 

 

 

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(6) What Is the Likelihood of an Unfriendly Scenario?

 

 

 

 

Key Takeaways

 

n      Assuming conversion of bonds and exercise of warrants by Ipsen:

 

—     Ipsen has 38.6% of Tercica’s diluted capital

 

—     Tercica Board members (including Ipsen) collectively control 62.3% of the diluted capital

 

One-Step Mergers

 

n      One-step merger structures are by definition friendly since they involve an agreement with Tercica’s Board

 

—     To obtain “majority of the remainder” at Tercica’s shareholders’ meeting voting on the merger, Ipsen needs to control 69% of Tercica’s capital

 

–       Since the Board (62.3%) is already in favour of the transaction, Ipsen only needs to gather an extra 7% of the votes at the general assembly to secure approval

 

Two-Step Tender-Merger

 

n      In an unfriendly scenario, Ipsen would face the hostility of 23.7% of the capital (i.e., other Board members)

 

—     Obtaining 90% (and ability to perform short-form merger) would not feasible due to the Board’s 23.7% hostile voting block

 

—     Obtaining 60% (and ability to perform long-form merger) would involve gathering 21.4% of the capital (or 57% of free float); however, if two top institutional investors known for their “activist nature” (AIM and State of Wisconsin) were to vote against the plan, Ipsen would need to gather c. 75% of remaining free float

 

n       Proceeding with an hostile offer would expose Ipsen to major execution risks and there would be no certainty regarding Ipsen’s ability to reach the targeted ownership thresholds

 

 

 

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LOGO   

 

(6) What Is the Likelihood of an Unfriendly Scenario?

Impact of Board Votes on Feasibility of the Transaction

 

    

Number of shares after exercise of

dilutive instruments

        Tender Offer     Merger  
    "Majority of remainder" not required     "Majority of
Remainder"
required
    "Majority of
remainder" not
required
    "Majority of
Remainder"
required
 
      Shares (m)    In %     > 60%     > 90%     > 69%     > 50%     > 69%  
 

Ipsen

  28.1    38.6 %   Y   38.6 %   Y   38.6%     Y   38.6 %   Y    38.6 %   Y    38.6 %   Y   38.6 %   Y   38.6 %
 

Key shareholders

  12.9    17.8 %   Y   17.8 %   N   -     Y   17.8 %   N    -     Y    17.8 %   Y   17.8 %   Y   17.8 %
 

Board members

  2.6    3.6 %   Y   3.6 %   N   -     Y   3.6 %   N    -     Y    3.6 %   Y   3.6 %   Y   3.6 %
 

Key executives

  1.7    2.4 %   Y   2.4 %   N   -     Y   2.4 %   N    -     Y    2.4 %   Y   2.4 %   Y   2.4 %
 

Sub-Total

  45.4    62.3 %     62.3 %     38.6%       62.3 %      38.6 %      62.3 %     62.3 %     62.3 %
     
 

Float

  27.4    37.7 %                                  
 

o/w AIM

  4.1    5.6 %                                  
 

o/w State of Wisconsin

  2.5    3.4 %                                  
     
 

Additional Voting rights to reach threshold

  0.0 %     21.4 %     27.7 %      51.4 %      7.0 %     0.0 %     7.0 %
 

As a % of float

  0.0 %     56.8 %     73.5 %      136.4 %      18.5 %     0.0 %     18.5 %
 

As a % of float excl. AIM and State of Wisconsin

  0.0 %     74.6 %     96.5 %      179.3 %      24.3 %     0.0 %     24.3 %
 

 

Assuming that 100% of shareholders are present and vote

Legend: “Y/N”: Vote for/against the transaction

 
    Threshold not reached                
 

LOGO

 

 
 

 

n  The unfriendly approach, implying a tender offer, seems unlikely unless the Tercica Board vote can be split

 

n  In the context of a tender offer, it will be difficult to reach the 90% threshold required for a short form merger without the support of the Tercica Board, especially since key shareholders on the Tercica Board represent c.18% of diluted share capital

By reaching a “majority of the remainder” (but <90%) threshold, Ipsen could still push through a long form merger if it gets comfortable with the challenge risks

 

 

 

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(7) What Are the Options to Finance the Transaction?

Preliminary Considerations

 

 

Considerations on Financing Options     Total Consideration (m)1
n    Ipsen is expected to remain clearly in a net cash position throughout the forecast period, on a pro-forma basis     Acquisition Price ($) / Premium to Current
         9.0 / 32%   9.5 / 40%   10.0 / 47%   10.5 / 54%   11.0 / 62%
       (295)   (310)   (325)   (340)   (355)
n    Post Tercica acquisition, Ipsen’s credit rating would be expected in the BB / BB+ range (i.e., in the “cross-over” territory between investment grade and sub-investment grade)     LOGO
  

—     Rating impacted positively by Ipsen’s strong franchise in targeted therapeutic areas, its solid EBITDA margins and its net cash position

   
  

—     Credit negatives include Ipsen’s modest size compared to other key pharma players, its dependence on the French market and the limited footprint in the key US and Japanese market, its heavy R&D investments and potential patent risks

   
n   

Based on current market conditions and an implied BB / BB+ rating, the spread on the incremental debt could be estimated at 150bps – 175 bps

 

   
n    Ipsen would probably get the best financial terms on its new loan facility through a club deal with Ipsen’s existing relationship lending banks

1   Assuming an acquisition as of 01-Jan-2008

           

 

 

 

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(8) How Will the Acquisition Impact Ipsen’s Financial

     Performance?

 

         Assuming an Acquisition in Jan-2008

 

 

 

LOGO

 

n      Improvement of the Group’s revenue growth profile

n      The total cash-out for Ipsen associated with a buyout of Tercica’s public shareholders can represent c. 300m - 350m

n      On an EPS basis, the transaction would be dilutive on a short-term horizon, with break-even expected by 2011

 

 

 

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(9) What is the Best Way to Retain Tercica’s Employees?

 

 

  Key Takeaways
 

 

n      Capacity for Ipsen to retain key Tercica employees is important for the overall success of the transaction

 

n       Tercica’s compensation and retention schemes are based on US biotech standards, compounded by the company’s presence in the San Francisco Bay Area, characterised by the “start-up” culture

 

—     Tercica relies on the use of stock options as a compensation and retention tool to a much greater extent than Ipsen

 

—     Stock options are awarded to a much broader base of employees compared to Ipsen. As a reference point at 31-Dec-2006, Ipsen’s stock options represent c.1.5% of the company’s basic shares outstanding, whereas this ratio stands at 10.5% for Tercica

 

n      Upon completion of the transaction, Ipsen would cash-out the Tercica employee stock options. Following the delisting of Tercica, Ipsen S.A. would remain the sole listed company in the group

 

n      With the help of an external HR advisor, Ipsen would have to design upfront an appropriate incentive scheme to ensure the retention of current Tercica employees and ensure the company’s competitiveness in the recruiting process with very limited recourse to stock option programmes

 

 

 

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(10) How Will Ipsen Communicate to the Market?

 

 

 

    Themes    Considerations
   
  Focus on targeted disease areas   

n      Strengthen Ipsen’s Endocrinology Portfolio

—     Increlex EU

—     Somatuline US

—     Combo project

   
  Implementation of US strategy   

n      Concrete commercialisation plan of Somatuline in the US

n      Access to a US sales force, know-how and infrastructure

n      Another example of successful partnership

   
  Development of worldwide franchise   

n      Somatuline and Increlex become two worldwide products

n      Possibility for Ipsen to use its US arm to launch additional products in North America

   
  Relative decrease in French market dependence   

n      Increased revenues and earnings from the US

   
 

Value creation

strategy

  

n      For Ipsen’s shareholders: value driven by monetisation of Somatuline US, in-licensing of Increlex and upside of stake in Tercica

n      Up to 40% stake in Tercica is a way to indirectly re-capture a portion of the value associated with Somatuline US and Increlex

 

LOGO

 

 

n      Preliminary equity story for the transaction is perceived as attractive

n      Tercica management, Board and shareholders may be particularly interested in understanding the rationale for Ipsen’s decision to carry out the buy-out of Tercica’s public shareholders in 2008 instead of in 2010-2011 as was initially expected by the market

 

 

 

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(10) How Will Ipsen Communicate to the Market?

Response by Ipsen to leaks / rumours

 

 

 

Scenario (1)

Tercica share price

moves materially and

unexpectedly

  

n      Tercica may be forced by market authorities, or on its own initiatives if market reactions are adverse, to make a public statement

n      If Tercica does not reply, Ipsen should stick with a “no comment” policy as long as possible

—     “As a matter of policy, we do not comment on market rumours”

   
 

Scenario (2)

Unnamed article

disclosing on-going

discussions

  

n      Stick with no comment as long as possible

—     “As a matter of policy, we do not comment on market rumours”

n      Ipsen can make an additional tactical statement to reduce market speculations on Tercica’s share price, by indicating that it currently has no intent to launch an offer

—     Such tactical communication decision would create a “freeze period” before Ipsen could make an offer on Tercica

—     This creates a number of risks if Ipsen does move ahead and may also complicate further disclosure

   
 

Scenario (3)

Tercica issues official communication

regarding the

discussions

  

n      Ipsen provides an answer through a press release laying out at least its intentions and rationale for the approach

n      Answer will be tailored to status of discussions with Tercica and content / tone of Tercica’s official statement

n      Such disclosure would lead to update obligations

 

 

 

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(11) What Are the Potential Risks for Ipsen?

 

 

 

    Theme   Risks    Considerations
   
 

Opposition from committee

 

n      Special Committee’s efforts to act independently may lead them oppose the deal or to set unreasonable price expectations

  

n      Ipsen should be prepared for lengthy discussion

n      Ipsen should enter the negotiation with a walk-away price at which it either (1) stops the discussion and awaits another opportunity or (2) carefully considers a hostile approach and appeals directly to the shareholders

   
  Negative merger vote  

n      Even if Special Committee negotiates and Ipsen reaches an agreement, activist shareholders could seek to use their ability to vote down the deal to demand a higher price post announcement

n       ISS may take negative stand on proposed terms

n      Winning the shareholders consent may be (1) prolonged (2) require price hike(s) (3) likely to be a highly public discussion and consequently poses potential reputational risk to Ipsen

  

n      Ipsen should focus on approaching key shareholders early in the process (as soon as made public) to make sure they support the agreement

   
  Dissenting shareholders  

n      Even if a majority of shareholders support the offer, dissenting shareholders may still decide to resort to litigation

  

n      Ipsen should make sure the price and discussion with the Board are perceived as fair

n      Ipsen should bare in mind that any internal communication (including that with its advisors) may have to be disclosed

   
  Reputation and adverse effect on relationship with Tercica  

n      Two reputational risk scenarios could occur following an official approach (1) no agreement reached with special committee and Ipsen decides to take the offer directly to shareholders (hostile) or (2) following agreement with the Special Committee Ipsen enters a prolonged public debate with dissenting shareholders as to value and accompanying litigation

n      Ipsen’s reputation impacted by a “failed” public approach

n      Business relationship with Tercica going forward would be impact by a failed approach

  

n      Perception of fairness is key

n      Ipsen should strive to maintain a positive “discussion” atmosphere

n      Ipsen should consider a scenario where buyout fails and prepare potential alternatives to communicate to the market

   
  Leaks  

n      Tercica’s Board has limited incentive to keep the discussion confidential

  

n      Clear communication strategy should be prepared in advance to react promptly to leak

 

 

 

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LOGO  

 

 

 

 

 

III.    Next Steps

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Next Steps    34


STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

LOGO  

 

Next Steps

 

 

 

n      If Ipsen’s Board decides to proceed forward with an informal approach of Tercica to explore the possibility of a buy-out of public shareholders, a number of short-term tasks would need to be undertaken:

 

—     Formalisation of pricing tactics, particularly the reserve price

 

—     Formalisation of approach tactics

 

–       Script of CEO-to-CEO meeting, covering price and “industrial project” for Tercica

 

—     Formalisation of the legal analysis, particularly regarding requirements for public disclosure (13D)

 

—     Formalisation of the integration plan, including financial projections and synergies

 

—     Preparation for “Plan B” scenarios in case exploratory contacts with Tercica were to lead to leaks or public disclosure by Tercica, thus forcing Ipsen to initiate “public” as opposed to “private” discussions

 

—     Drafting of communication materials

 

–       Draft press releases and initial work on drafting of market / investor presentation

 

—     Formalisation of deal structuring and financing

 

–       Drafting of presentation to lending banks

 

—     Selection of external advisors (public relations, HR)

 

n      A thorough and detailed preparation phase will thus be required before initiating contacts

 

 

 

Next Steps    35


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LOGO  

 

 

 

 

  Appendix A: Additional Materials

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Additional Materials    36


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LOGO  

 

(1) Who Are the Key Parties Involved?

  Core M&A Advisory Team for Ipsen

 

 

 

 

LOGO

 

 

 

 

Additional Materials    37


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LOGO  

 

(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

 

Since Ipsen Investment (18-Jul-2006)

 

 

Key Share Price Data

             
   

Closing 12-Feb-08

  $6.81     1-m average   $6.79
           
   

52-week high

  $7.77     3-m average   $6.92
           
   

52-week low

  $4.71     6-m average   $6.80
 

 

 

              US GAAP    IFRS
      In $m    2007A    2007A    2008E    2009E    2010E    2011E
     
    P&L Items                  
    Revenues    31    11    41    105    186    275
   

Growth in %

 

         273.2%

 

   154.5%

 

   76.0%

 

   48.5%

 

    EBITDA    (39)    (59)    (63)    (25)    25    70
    Margin in %         n.m.    n.m.    n.m.    13.5%    25.3%
    EBIT    (40)    (59)    (67)    (29)    21    66
    Margin in %       n.m.    n.m.    n.m.    11.3%    23.9%
   

Interest income/(expense)

 

   4

 

   4

 

   1

 

   0

 

   0

 

   2

 

    Net income    (40)    (40)    (44)    (18)    12    41
    Margin in %    n.m.    n.m.    n.m.    n.m.    6.5%    14.8%
    Cash Flow Items                  
    Operating Cash Flow    (34)    (11)    (68)    (21)    24    71
    o/w increase/(decrease) in Working Capital    (5)    6    (6)    5    1    1
    Investing Cash Flow    2    (1)    (1)    (1)    (1)    (1)
    % of Revenues    (6.8)%    9.0%    2.9%    0.7%    0.4%    0.3%
    Financing Cash Flow (1)    20    -    -    -    -    -
   

Incr./(decr.) in cash and cash equivalents (incl. ST inv.)

 

   (12)

 

   (12)

 

   (69)

 

   (22)

 

   24

 

   70

 

    Net cash/(debt) position (2)    113    113    44    22    46    116
                     
    Source: Tribeca public filings, Ipsen
   

(1)    Including change in short term investments

   

(2)    Excluding convertible bonds held by Ipsen

  Source: Datastream as of 12-Feb-2008
 

1   Composed of: Abraxis Bioscience, Alexion Pharms., Amgen, Amylin Pharms., Biogen Idec, Biomarin Pharm., Celgene, Chas.Rvr.Labs, Gen-Probe, Genentech, Genzyme, Gilead Sciences, Illumina, Imclone Sys., Invitrogen, Millennium, Onyx Pharms., Osi Pharms., Techne and Vertex

 

 

 

Additional Materials    38


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(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

Tercica Shares Traded at Various Prices

 

 

 

 

LOGO

 

 

n      Approximately 1/3 of Tercica’s shares have traded at a volume weighted average share price of $6.8 / share

  Source: Datastream as of 12-Feb-2008

 

 

 

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(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

Brokers’ Valuation Methodologies

 

 

        

Revenue Multiples

         
    Broker    Target
Price ($)
  

Multi-

ple

   Ref.
Year
   Discount
Rate
   Other Valuation
Methodologies
   Selected Comments
   
 

Collins

Stewart

(23-Jan-08)

   $9.0    6.0x    2011    25%    -    “By applying a 6x multiple to our 2011 revenue forecast of $150MM and discounting back to the present at a rate of 25% per annum, we arrive at a fair value for TRCA’s shares of $9.”
   
 

Stanford

Group

(20-Dec-07)

   10.0    -    -    -   

n  SoP valuation of Increlex and Somatuline (discount rate of 15%)

n  DCF valuation of the Group (WACC: 17%, perpetuity growth rate: 2%)

   “We arrive at our 12-month price target of $10 by using a sum of parts analysis of the Increlex and Somatuline Depot franchises. To provide additional support for our price target, we conducted a DCF analysis which supports our sum of the parts analysis. We forecast peak Increlex sales of $200M in 2013, and peak Somatuline Depot sales of $160M in 2013. We do not include any potential revenues from TRCA’s Phase II Increlex/Nutropin combination for short stature, adult growth hormone deficiency, and possibly obesity.”
   
 

Lazard Capital (03-Nov-07)

   10.0    6.0x    2011    20%    -    “Target of $10, derived from applying a 6x to our 2011E revenues of $182 M, discounted 3.25 years at 20% per year, plus $2 cash per share. The 6x multiple is within the 5-7x 2008E EV/revenue multiple for the biotech group.”
   
 

FBR & Co. (03-Nov-07)

   7.0    6.0x    2009    25%   

n  P/E multiple (35.0x 2013 earnings), discounted @25%

   “On a back-of-the-envelope, price-to-sales basis, $7 a share, or a $480M market value, seems fair, since $95M in 2009 revenue at a multiple of 6x, discounted a year at 25%, implies a $460M valuation. Our official price target calculation is based on our $0.65 EPS estimate in 2013, a 35x P/E multiple, and a 25% discount rate (down from 35%, as we perceive less risk to future revenues).”
   
 

Robert Baird (02-Nov-07)

   7.0    -    -    -   

n  P/E multiple (35.0x 2010 earnings), discounted @20%

   “In that big-cap commercial biotechnology companies have historically traded in an average range of 30-40X EPS estimates, we apply a 35 multiple to our 2010 EPS estimate of $0.28, discounted back by 20% per year, to derive our 12-month price target of $7.”
   
 

Lehman Brothers (09-Oct-07)

   $9.0    6.5x    2010    20%   

n  P/E multiple (25.0x 2010 earnings), discounted @25%

   “We arrive at our $9.00 price target by applying a 25x multiple to 2010 EPS forecast of $0.61 and discounting at 25%. We believe that the 25x multiple and 25% discount rate appropriately reflect TRCA growth prospects and risk to achieving our estimates. We arrived at our previous $14 price target by applying a 6.5x revenue multiple to our prior 2010E revenue forecast of $227.3 million and discounting at 20%.”
 

LOGO

 

 

n  Research analysts focused on a 6.0x-6.5x revenues multiple range applied to 2009-2011 Tercica revenues and discounted at a 20-25% rate

 

 

 

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(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

Estimated Entry Price of Selected Institutional Shareholders

 

 

                        Estimated   Million of Shares Held
  #   Name   Country   Style   Stake   Entry Price ($)   Q1 '08   Q4 '07   Q3 '07   Q2 '07   Q1 '07
  1   AIM Trimark Investments   Canada   Core Growth   7.9%   5.4   4,062,733   4,062,733   4,062,733   3,988,033   3,039,481
  2   State of Wisconsin Investment Board   United States   Core Growth   4.8%   8.5   2,487,498   2,487,498   2,487,498   2,487,498   2,487,498
  3   T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc.   United States   GARP   3.9%   6.8   2,001,442   2,001,442   2,001,442   1,974,142   1,972,242
  4   Mazama Capital Management, Inc.   United States   Growth   2.7%   6.7   1,374,600   1,374,600   1,374,600   1,398,500   1,431,400
  5   Deka Investment GmbH   Germany   Core Growth   1.8%   5.3   938,359   938,359   938,359   938,359   970,000
  6   Carnegie Kapitalförvaltning AB   Sweden   Core Value   1.6%   7.3   849,951   849,951   849,951   849,951   799,951
  7   AXA Framlington Investment Mgt   United Kingdom   GARP   1.6%   7.7   817,867   817,867   817,867   845,950   910,000
  8   AXA Investment Managers Paris   France   Core Growth   1.6%   5.8   817,867   817,867   817,867   845,950   -
  9   Granahan Investment Management Inc.   United States   Growth   1.6%   7.7   816,650   816,650   834,650   749,700   959,800
  10   Dimensional Fund Advisors, LP   United States   Deep Value   1.4%   6.2   741,451   741,451   544,839   316,517   -
  11   Clariden Leu   Switzerland   Core Growth   1.0%   6.7   537,228   537,228   537,228   458,085   458,085
  12   DWS Investment GmbH   Germany   GARP   0.9%   8.2   465,545   465,545   465,545   472,311   512,311
  13   Thrivent Asset Management, LLC   United States   GARP   0.5%   5.9   241,500   241,500   241,500   224,000   -
  14   College Retirement Equities Fund   United States   GARP   0.4%   5.8   201,574   201,574   201,574   207,243   -
  15   Northern Trust Company of Connecticut   United States   GARP   0.3%   6.8   150,550   150,550   150,550   124,350   123,650
  16   UBS Global Asset Management   Switzerland   Core Value   0.2%   8.4   97,600   97,600   97,600   292,900   479,800
  17   Morgan Stanley & Co. Inc.   United States   Broker-Dealer   0.1%   5.9   71,076   71,076   71,076   56,168   -
  18   Goldman Sachs & Company, Inc.   United States   Broker-Dealer   0.1%   6.1   68,825   68,825   68,825   18,492   14,775
  19   Deutsche Asset Management Americas   United States   Core Growth   0.1%   6.7   59,283   59,283   59,283   90,180   124,880
  20   Credit Suisse Asset Management, LLC (US)   United States   Core Growth   0.1%   6.3   44,536   44,536   44,536   14,136   14,136
  21   BlackRock Investment Management, LLC   United States   Deep Value   0.1%   6.0   41,800   41,800   41,800   38,200   7,900
  22   Ohio Public Employees Retirement System   United States   GARP   0.1%   5.8   40,035   40,035   40,035   40,756   -
  23   AIG Investments   United States   GARP   0.1%   5.8   28,669   28,669   28,669   27,423   -
  24   BNY Mellon Asset Management   United States   Income Value   0.0%   6.2   21,933   21,933   21,933   2,310   -
  25   MFC Global Investment Management   Canada   GARP   0.0%   5.8   18,535   18,535   18,535   18,535   -
  26   Renaissance Technologies Corp.   United States   Hedge Fund   0.0%   6.2   17,418   17,418   17,418   0   -
  27   Nordinvest   Germany   Core Growth   0.0%   5.4   17,000   17,000   17,000   20,000   20,000
  28   Medical Strategy GmbH   Germany   GARP   0.0%   5.8   16,500   16,500   16,500   16,500   -
  29   Northern Trust Global Investments   United States   Core Growth   0.0%   5.8   11,520   11,520   11,520   11,950   -
  30   Fidelity Management & Research   United States   GARP   0.0%   7.5   6,400   6,400   6,400   6,400   318,189
                                     
        Total   33.1%   6.7   17,065,945   17,065,945   16,887,333   16,534,539   14,644,098
        Median       6.2                    
  Source: Thomson, 12-Feb-2008                  

 

 

 

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(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

Value of Position for Board Members and Key Executives

 

 

          Ownership       

Value of Position at

Various Offer Price($ '000)

             Options    TOTAL    TOTAL       
   Name    # Shares ('000)    # ('000)    Strike ($)    Shares ('000)    in % (1)        $8.0    $10.0    $12.0
  

Board members

                         
  

John A. Scarlett (2)

   921    650    6.89    1,571    2.2%      8,087    11,229    14,370
  

Ross G. Clark (2)

   625    140    na    765    1.1%      5,182    6,711    8,241
  

Alexander Barkas

   18    81    na    99    0.1%      249    447    645
  

Karin Eastham

   10    35    na    45    0.1%      126    216    306
  

Dr. Henner

   -    45    na    45    0.1%      59    149    239
  

Mark Leschly

   -    45    na    45    0.1%      59    149    239
  

David L. Mahoney

   -    45    na    45    0.1%      59    149    239
  

Christophe Jean

   -    23    na    23    0.0%        30    75    120
  

Total

   1,573    1,064       2,637    3.6%      13,851    19,125    24,399
  

 

Key executives

                         
  

Stephen N. Rosenfield

   25    453    7.59    478    0.7%      387    1,344    2,301
  

Andrew Grethlein

   5    352    5.35    356    0.5%      970    1,683    2,395
  

Ajay Bansal

   1    310    6.43    311    0.4%      494    1,116    1,738
  

Thorsten von Stein

   -    305    7.86    305    0.4%      42    652    1,262
  

Richard King

   -    275    5.40    275    0.4%        715    1,265    1,815
  

Total

   31    1,695       1,726    2.4%      2,609    6,060    9,511
  

 

Key shareholders with Board representation

                      
  

MPM

   6,859    -    -    6,859    9.4%      54,874    68,593    82,311
  

Prospect Venture

   3,064    -    -    3,064    4.2%      24,508    30,635    36,762
  

Rho Capital Partners

   3,005    -    -    3,005    4.1%        24,040    30,050    36,059
  

Total

   12,928    -       12,928    17.8%      103,422    129,278    155,133
  

 

Source: 2007 Proxy Statement as of May 2007, SEC filings

(1) Based on diluted number of shares of 72,786,386

(2) Member of the Management Board

For options with no strike disclosed, assuming a strike price of $6.69 (weigthted average of key executives options strike price)

  

 

LOGO

 

  

n    Weighted average strike price of stock options held by key executives is $6.69 / share

n    At 31-Dec-2006, the weighted average strike price of outstanding options for all Tercica employees was $6.98 / share

 

 

 

Additional Materials    42


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(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

Premia Benchmarks

 

 

 
 

n      Special Committee and Tercica shareholders will resort to a number of benchmarks to analyse Ipsen’s offer including:

 

—       Transaction premium over Tercica’s recent / historic share price vs. Premia observed in minority buy-out situation

 

—       Transaction premium over Tercica’s recent / historic share price offered Premia observed in biotech transactions

LOGO

 

 
 

n      Although the current situation has some similarities to a minority buyout due to Ipsen’s c. 40% ownership and the associated governance rights, it is likely that shareholders will consider this as a “straight” takeover, thus leading to a request for a “full” takeover premium

 

—     Minority buyout premia tend to be lower than “straight” takeover premia since the bidder already has 50%+ control prior to launch

 

n      Premia in precedent takeovers in the biotech sector have a median in the 35%-50%

  Source: SEC filings and Thomson

 

 

1  US targets with over $100m of market capitalisation, with acquiror owning more 51% of the capital prior to the transaction

Additional Materials    43


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(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

DCF Valuation Sensitivity - “Desktop” DCF Based on Brokers Consensus

 

 

    Share Price Sensitivity ($ per Share)         Share Price Sensitivity ($ per Share) including Potential
Upside from Combo
       
            Wacc                       Wacc      
        12%      11%      10%      9%      8%               12%      11%      10%      9%      8%  
     4.5%    7.2    8.7    10.7    13.6    18.2          4.5%    10.2    11.6    13.6    16.5    21.1
  Perpetuity           4.0%    6.8    8.1    9.8    12.3    16.0       Perpetuity           4.0%    9.7    11.0    12.8    15.2    18.9
  Growth Rate     3.5%    6.4    7.6    9.1    11.2    14.3       Growth Rate     3.5%    9.4    10.5    12.1    14.2    17.2
     3.0%    6.1    7.1    8.5    10.3    12.9          3.0%    9.0    10.1    11.4    13.3    15.9
     2.5%    5.8    6.7    8.0    9.6    11.8          2.5%    8.7    9.7    10.9    12.5    14.7

 

 

 

LOGO

 

 

n      Depending on assumptions regarding the Combo, a DCF on brokers’ consensus can yield a price per share in the range of $9-$12

 

 

 

Additional Materials    44


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(3) Tactically, How Should Ipsen Approach Tercica?

Will Ipsen Perform Due Diligence?

 

 

LOGO

 

 

 

Additional Materials    45


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(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

Components of Valuation

 

 

 

    Valuation & Components    

  

        Timing        

  

Market

    Valuation Consideration    

LOGO      

 

Fully valued by market

 

  

2010-2013

  

 

Unclear how much value of

potential trial upside is factored

into brokers’ forecats

 

     
     
     
   2012   

 

Overlooked by market as

early stage

 

LOGO

 

 

¢

 

  

 

Combo Pipeline provides additional upside to valuation

 

¢

 

  

Potential of non-severe application is a source of disparity between brokers

 

 

 

 

Additional Materials    46


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(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

Comparison of Tercica and Brokers Consensus Projections

 

 

 

    Comparison of Projections ($m)     LOGO    Key Drivers  
       2007    2008     2009     2010     2011     07-11
CAGR
            2007     2008     2009     2010     2011     07-11
CAGR
 
 

Increlex US

 

    

Increlex US - Patients

 

 

Tercica Business Plan

   9.6    22.0     46.8     80.8     125.0     90.0 %     

Tercica Business Plan

   398     944     1,760     2,908     4,351     81.8 %
 

Growth in %

      129.2 %   112.8 %   72.6 %   54.7 %       

Brokers Consensus (1)

   664     1,055     1,652     2,686     4,106     57.7 %
 

Brokers Consensus (1)

   9.7    20.1     29.8     48.8     74.1     66.2 %     

Delta in %

   (40) %   (10) %   7 %   8 %   6 %  
 

Growth in %

      107.3 %   48.0 %   64.1 %   51.6 %                    
 

Delta

   (0.1)    1.9     17.1     32.0     51.0         

Increlex US - Average Yearly Cost ($) (2)

 

      

Tercica Business Plan

   24,121     23,305     26,601     27,791     28,739     4.5 %
                    

Brokers Consensus (1)

   14,558     17,363     20,710     22,466     24,072     13.4 %
 

Somatuline US

 

    

Delta in %

   66 %   34 %   28 %   24 %   19 %  
 

Tercica Business Plan

   0.6    16.2     48.9     89.5     129.5     283.3 %                  
 

Growth in %

      n.m.     202.0 %   82.9 %   44.7 %       

Somatuline US - Patients

 

 

Brokers Consensus (1)

   0.6    14.7     43.7     70.7     103.8     261.5 %     

Tercica Business Plan

   105     999     2,113     3,122     3,824     145.7 %
 

Growth in %

      n.m.     196.9 %   61.8 %   46.8 %       

Brokers Consensus (1)

   7     408     1,339     2,369     3,549     381.9 %
 

Delta

   (0.0)    1.5     5.2     18.8     25.7         

Delta in %

   n.m.     145 %   58 %   32 %   8 %  
                                 
      

Somatuline US - Average Yearly Cost ($)

 

                    

Tercica Business Plan

   5,714     16,216     23,156     28,664     33,864     56.0 %
 

Total Revenues

 

    

Brokers Consensus (1)

   22,922     21,170     24,016     25,605     27,495     4.7 %
 

Tercica Business Plan

   11.1    41.0     103.6     182.4     271.1     122.3 %     

Delta in %

   (75) %   (23) %   (4) %   12 %   23 %  
 

Growth in %

      269.4 %   152.7 %   76.1 %   48.6 %                    
 

Brokers Consensus (1)

   10.6    38.3     81.6     133.4     198.7     108.2 %                  
 

Growth in %

      261.9 %   113.1 %   63.5 %   49.0 %       

COGS - % of Sales

 

 

Delta

   0.5    2.7     22.0     49.1     72.4         

Tercica Business Plan

   60 %   46 %   24 %   19 %   17 %  
                    

Brokers Consensus (3)

   54 %   39 %   35 %   34 %   34 %  
                    
                    

R&D - % of Sales

 

 

EBIT

 

    

Tercica Business Plan

   189 %   82 %   36 %   23 %   15 %  
 

Tercica Business Plan

   (59.0)    (67.5)     (30.7)     17.8     61.4     n.m.       

Brokers Consensus (3)

   202 %   86 %   44 %   30 %   22 %  
 

Margin in %

   n.m.    n.m.     (29.6) %   9.8 %   22.6 %       
 

Brokers Consensus (1)

   (40.4)    (57.5)     (38.9)     (14.0)     19.3     n.m.       

SG&A - % of Revenues

 

 

Margin in %

   n.m.    n.m.     (47.6) %   (10.5) %   9.7 %       

Tercica Business Plan

   385 %   124 %   57 %   36 %   26 %  
 

Delta

   (18.6)    (10.0)     8.2     31.8     42.1         

Brokers Consensus (3)

   144 %   145%     75 %   50 %   38 %  
                                 
  (1) Average of Stanford Group (20-Dec-2007), Lehman Brothers, FBR, Cowen and Collins Stewart (02-Nov-2007)        

(1) Average of Stanford Group (20-Dec-2007) and Cowen (02-Nov-2007)

(2) For Ipsen, calculated as Sales / Number of Patients

(3) Average of Stanford Group (20-Dec-2007), Lehman Brothers, FBR, Cowen and Collins Stewart (02-Nov-2007)

 

 

  

 

 

 

Additional Materials    47


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(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

          DCF Valuation - Key Assumptions

 

n    We have valued Tercica on a fundamental basis as of December 31, 2007 based upon brokers forecasts through to 2011 and GS extrapolations
   
n    In addition, additional value may be derived from the earlier stage combination product that we have valued using a product based DCF (assumptions outlined below) assuming a ten year economic life cycle with no terminal value
DCF Assumptions – Brokers Consensus
n    Revenues projections
      Brokers Consensus over 2007-2011
      GS extrapolation over 2012-2014: Increlex and Somatuline sales growth decreasing to 10% in 2014
      3.5% perpetuity growth rate
n    Cost structure
      Brokers consensus over 2007-2011 (in terms of % of Sales or Revenues)
      COGS decreasing to 30.0% of Sales in 2014, R&D to 20.0% of Sales and SG&A to 30.0% of Revenues
n    Tax Rate increasing to 40.0% by 2014
n    Capex and D&A
      As per Brokers Consensus over 2007-2011
      Constant at 0.3% of Sales over 2012-2014, D&A converging to Capex by 2014
DCF Assumptions – Upside Potential from Combo
n    US Sales and Revenues ex-US over 2012-2014 as per FBR (02-Nov-2007) with forecasts extrapolated to 2022 based the following assumptions:
      US peak sales expected to reach $120m by 2017 and $120m ex-US by 2020
      Assume a 50% profit sharing with partner for ex-US
      EBITDA margin as broker forecasts up to 2014 declining to 42% by the end of the period
      Assume 40% tax rate and no terminal value

 

 

 

Additional Materials    48


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(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

          DCF Valuation - Based on Brokers Consensus

 

     Brokers Consensus    GS Assumptions
In $m    2007    2008    2009    2010    2011    2012    2013    2014

Increlex US

   9.7    20.1    29.8    48.8    74.1    102.0    126.4    139.0

Growth in %

      107.3%    48.0%    64.1%    51.6%    37.8%    23.9%    10.0%

Somatuline US

   0.6    14.7    43.7    70.7    103.8    139.7    170.8    187.9

Growth in %

      2320.3%    196.9%    61.8%    46.8%    34.6%    22.3%    10.0%

Increlex ex US - Brokers Consensus

   0.3    3.2    7.8    13.5    20.5    28.2    35.0    38.5

Growth in %

      1074.7%    144.8%    72.8%    51.5%    37.8%    23.9%    10.0%

Total Revenues

   10.6    38.0    81.3    133.1    198.4    269.9    332.2    365.4

COGS

   (5.6)    (13.6)    (25.5)    (40.4)    (59.8)    (78.4)    (92.8)    (98.1)

% of Sales

   54.0%    39.1%    34.8%    33.8%    33.6%    32.4%    31.2%    30.0%

R&D

   (20.8)    (30.0)    (32.3)    (36.0)    (38.8)    (51.2)    (61.2)    (65.4)

% of Sales

   202.3%    86.2%    44.0%    30.1%    21.8%    21.2%    20.6%    20.0%

SG&A

   (15.2)    (55.2)    (60.7)    (66.3)    (76.0)    (95.9)    (108.8)    (109.6)

% of Revenues

   143.7%    145.3%    74.6%    49.8%    38.3%    35.5%    32.8%    30.0%

Taxes on EBIT

   (0.4)    —      —      0.2    (3.0)    (9.6)    (21.4)    (36.9)

Implied Tax rate

   (1.3)%    0.0%    0.0%    2.4%    12.5%    21.7%    30.8%    40.0%

D&A

   1.7    2.2    1.9    1.7    1.5    1.3    1.2    1.1

% of Sales

   (16.6)%    (6.2)%    (2.5)%    (1.4)%    (0.8)%    (0.6)%    (0.4)%    (0.3)%

Decrease/(Increase) in WC

   3.2    (3.7)    (5.2)    (1.0)    (3.8)    (5.1)    (6.3)    (6.9)

% of Sales

   (30.8)%    10.7%    7.1%    0.8%    2.1%    2.1%    2.1%    2.1%

Capex

   (1.4)    0.6    (0.5)    (0.7)    (0.6)    (0.8)    (1.0)    (1.1)

% of Sales

   13.4%    (1.7)%    0.6%    0.6%    0.3%    0.3%    0.3%    0.3%
                       

Free Cash Flow

   (27.9)    (61.8)    (41.1)    (9.4)    17.9    30.2    41.9    48.5

 

Implied Share Price ($)              

Share Price Sensitivity

Enterprise Value ($m)

   396.6                    Wacc     

Cash Position 31-Dec-2007E

   72.0               11%    10%    9%

Equity Value ($m)

   468.7      

Perpetuity

     4.0%    8.1    9.8    12.3

Non diluted NOSH (m)

   51.5      

Growth Rate

     3.5%    7.6    9.1    11.2

Implied Share Price ($)

   9.1            3.0%    7.1    8.5    10.3

Implied Exit Revenues multiple

   2.1                    

 

 

 

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(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

          DCF Valuation - Potential Upside from Combo

 

In $m    2012    2013    2014    2015    2016    2017    2018    2019    2020    2021    2022

US sales

   25    40    60    80    100    120    120    120    120    80    20

Sales ex-US

   -    18    35    40    60    84    96    108    120    80    20

Tercica revenues from ex-US Sales

   -    9    18    20    30    42    48    54    60    40    10

Total Revenues

   25    49    78    100    130    162    168    174    180    120    30

Total costs

   (16)    (25)    (38)    (50)    (63)    (75)    (75)    (75)    (75)    (50)    (13)

% of Revenues

   64%    51%    49%    50%    48%    46%    45%    43%    42%    42%    42%

Pre tax Cash flow

   9    24    40    50    68    87    93    99    105    70    18
                                

Post tax Cash flow

   5    15    24    30    41    52    56    59    63    42    11

 

Implied Share Price ($)         Share Price Sensitivity ($)

Equity Value ($m)

   152.4       Wacc

Non diluted NOSH (m)

   51.5       11.0%   10.5%    10.0%    9.5%    9.0%

Implied Share Price ($)

   3.0       2.7   2.8    3.0    3.1    3.2

 

 

 

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(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

DCF Valuation - Cost Structure of Brokers Projections

 

     2007     2008     2009     2010     2011     2012     2013     2014  

COGS - % of Sales

                

Stanford Group

   65 %   46 %   31 %   30 %   29 %   26 %   25 %  

Lehman Brothers

   50 %   26 %            

FBR

   53 %   39 %   39 %   40 %   41 %   40 %   41 %   43 %

Cowen

   72 %   57 %   42 %   38 %   37 %   37 %    

Collins Stewart

   30 %   28 %   27 %   27 %   27 %   27 %    

Average

   54 %   39 %   35 %   34 %   34 %   33 %   33 %   43 %

R&D - % of Sales

                

Stanford Group

   215 %   88 %   37 %   22 %   13 %   10 %   9 %  

Lehman Brothers

   215 %   75 %            

FBR

   202 %   102 %   53 %   45 %   33 %   24 %   20 %   19 %

Cowen

   205 %   88 %   42 %   25 %   19 %   19 %    

Collins Stewart

   175 %   78 %   43 %   28 %   23 %   19 %    

Average

   202 %   86 %   44 %   30 %   22 %   18 %   14 %   19 %

SG&A - % of Revenues

                

Stanford Group

   141 %   187 %   77 %   44 %   25 %   19 %   16 %  

Lehman Brothers

   152 %   133 %            

Lazard Capital

   135 %   147 %   91 %   63 %   52 %      

FBR

   139 %   123 %   60 %   46 %   36 %   28 %   24 %   21 %

Cowen

   143 %   161 %   72 %   42 %   30 %   30 %    

Collins Stewart

   152 %   121 %   73 %   55 %   48 %   43 %    

Average

   144 %   145 %   75 %   50 %   38 %   30 %   20 %   21 %

 

 

 

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(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

WACC Analysis - Peer Group used by Tercica Brokers - Market Cap Between $100m and $1bn

 

Beta Comparable Companies       Weighted Average Cost of Capital
     Beta (1)    Market
Cap ($m)
   Net Fin.
Debt ($m)
   Net Debt /
Mkt Cap
   Unlevered
Beta
     

Cost of Debt

  

Cost of Equity

Anesiva

   0.71    184    (46)    (25.1)%    0.71     Pre-Tax Cost of Debt (2)    5.00%    Risk-Free Rate (3)    4.33%

CV Therapeutics

   1.32    463    205    44.2%    1.04     Applied Tax Rate    40.0%    Market Risk Premium (4)    5.16%

Cytokinetics

   1.62    161    (143)    (89.1)%    1.62           Unlevered Beta    0.99

Regeneration

   0.95    266    (15)    (5.6)%    0.95               Levered Beta    0.80

Trimeris

   1.05    145    (57)    (39.4)%    1.05     After Tax Cost of Debt    3.00%    Cost of Equity    8.46%
                  

ViroPharma Inc.

   0.82    668    (302)    (45.2)%    0.82     Target Gearing (D/E)    (32.3)%    E/(D+E)    147.6%
                         D/(D+E)    (47.6)%

All Peers Median

   0.67              (32.3%)    0.99     WACC              11.1%

 

     

Unlevered

Beta

   Implied
Wacc
   1.00    11.1%
   1.50    14.2%
   2.00    17.2%

Note: market capitalisation as of 12-Feb-2008

(1) Raw Beta over the last 2 years, on a weekly basis. Source: Bloomberg as of 12-Feb-2008.

(2) 250bps over convertible coupon rate on Tribeca Convertible issued to Ipsen

(3) 1-Year Risk free rate as of 14-Dec-2007

(4) Source: GS Analysis

 

 

 

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(2) What Is the Potential Price Strategy for the Bid?

WACC Benchmarks

 

  n  

The following are discount rate ranges used in DCFs for selected public transactions

 

Target    Discount
Rate
         Key Value Driver

Abgenix

   13 to 17%         Phase III data on Panitumumab

TKT

   15 to 20%        

Approved products Replagal and Dynepo

I2S within months of Phase III data

Bone Care

   12 to 17%         Approved product Hectorol

Eyetech

   12 to 15%         Approved product Macugen

Vicuron

   11 to 13%         NDAs filed for Dalbavancin and anidulafungin

CAT

   12.5%         Approved product (royalty) Humira

Atrix

   14 to 16%         Approved product (royalty) Eligard

Tularik

   20 to 30%         Small molecule discovery capabilities

Corixa

   20 to 25%         Vaccine enabling MPL technology

 

  n  

Late stage biotech assets (Phase III and beyond) have generally garnered ~15% discount rates on probability-weighted cash flows

 

  n  

Early stage companies and other technology-focused stories require a higher discount rate

 

  n  

Pharma company portfolios are regularly valued by internal teams using 13 to 15% discount rates

 

  n  

From a theoretical framework, biotech betas for early stage companies commonly approach 2.0.

 

 

 

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(3) Tactically, How Should Ipsen Approach Tercica?

Timing

 

 

Key Milestones for Tercica
Timeline   Event          Relevance
Results                       
[26]-Feb-2008   n    Q4 2007/FY 2007 earnings release    n      Market focuses on uptake in sales of Increlex in Europe and Somatuline Depot in the US
[03]-May-2008   n    Q1 2008 earnings release      
Pipeline           
H1 2008   n    Initiation of Phase II trials in Short Stature and Adult Growth Hormone Deficiency-Combination with NutropinAq (Genentech)    n

n

 

 

  

Potential Upside

Market doesn’t seem to fully value the potential of this combination

H1 2008   n    Data from Phase 3b MS301 (Increlex in moderate IGFD)    n

n

 

 

  

Potential Downside

Market expects positive results that would expand addressable market of Increlex

H2 2008   n    Data from study MS308 Phase 3b trials (Increlex 1x/day)      
Tercica Internal Process            
[Q1 2008]   n    Availability of updated projections      
LOGO
   
n   Current assessment at this stage is that the news flow currently expected in 2008 should have only a limited impact on Tercica’s share price
      The market is focusing on uptake in sales of Increlex in Europe and Somatuline Depot in the US
      Potential upside from the Phase I combination with Genentech’s Nutropin does not appear to be fully captured by research analysts or has been discounted for risk / timing

 

 

 

Additional Materials    54