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RESERVE FOR LOSSES AND LOSS EXPENSES
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2021
Insurance Loss Reserves [Abstract]  
RESERVE FOR LOSSES AND LOSS EXPENSES
Reserving Methodology
Sources of Information
The Company's loss reserving process begins with the collection and analysis of paid and incurred claim data for each of the Company's segments. The segmental data is disaggregated by reserve class and further disaggregated by underwriting year and accident year. Underwriting year or accident year information is used to analyze the Company's business and to estimate reserves for losses and loss expenses. Reserve classes are selected to ensure that the underlying contracts have homogeneous loss development characteristics, while remaining large enough to make the estimation of trends credible. The Company's reserve classes are reviewed on a regular basis and adjusted over time as the Company's business evolves. The paid and incurred claim data serves as a key input to many of the methods employed by the Company's actuaries.
The following tables map the Company's lines of business to reserve classes and the expected claim tails:
Insurance segment
Reserve class and tail
Property and otherMarineAviationCredit and political riskProfessional linesLiability
ShortShortShort/MediumMediumMediumLong
Reported lines of business
PropertyX
MarineX
TerrorismX
AviationX
Credit and political riskX
Professional linesX
LiabilityX
Accident and healthX
Discontinued lines - NovaeXXX
Reinsurance segment
Reserve class and tail
Property and otherCredit and suretyProfessional linesMotorLiability
ShortMediumMediumLongLong
Reported lines of business
CatastropheX
PropertyX
Credit and suretyX
Professional linesX
MotorX
LiabilityX
EngineeringX
AgricultureX
Marine and aviationX
Accident and healthX
Discontinued lines - NovaeXXX
Actuarial Analysis
Multiple actuarial methods are available to estimate ultimate losses. Each method has its own assumptions and its own advantages and disadvantages, with no single estimation method being better than the others in all situations and no one set of assumption variables being meaningful for all reserve classes. The relative strengths and weaknesses of the particular estimation methods when applied to a particular group of claims can also change over time.
The following is a brief description of the reserve estimation methods commonly employed by the Company's actuaries including a discussion of their particular strengths and weaknesses: 
Expected Loss Ratio Method ("ELR Method"): This method estimates ultimate losses for an accident year or underwriting year by applying an expected loss ratio ("ELR") to the earned or written premium for that year. Generally, expected loss ratios are based on one or more of (a) an analysis of historical loss experience to date, (b) pricing information and (c) industry data, adjusted as appropriate, to reflect changes in rates, loss and exposure trends, and terms and conditions. This method is insensitive to actual incurred losses for the accident year or underwriting year in question and is, therefore, often useful in the early stages of development when very few losses have been incurred. Conversely, the lack of sensitivity to incurred/paid losses for the accident year or underwriting year in question means that this method is usually inappropriate in later stages of an accident year or underwriting year’s development.
Loss Development Method (also referred to as the "Chain Ladder Method" or "Link Ratio Method"): This method assumes that the losses incurred/paid for each accident year or underwriting year at a particular development stage follow a relatively similar pattern. It assumes that on average, every accident year or underwriting year will display the same percentage of ultimate losses incurred/paid at the same point in time after the inception of that year. The percentages incurred/paid are established for each development stage (e.g. 12 months, 24 months, etc.) after examining averages from historical loss development data and/or external industry benchmark information. Ultimate losses are then estimated by multiplying the actual incurred/paid losses by the reciprocal of the established incurred/paid percentage. The strengths of this method are that it reacts to loss emergence/payments and that it makes full use of historical claim emergence/payment experience. However, this method has weaknesses when the underlying assumption of stable loss development/payment patterns is not valid. This could be the consequence of changes in business mix, claim inflation trends or claim reporting practices and/or the presence of large claims, among other things. Furthermore, this method tends to produce volatile estimates of ultimate losses where there is volatility in the underlying incurred/paid patterns. In particular, where the expected percentage of incurred/paid losses is low, small deviations between actual and expected claims can lead to very volatile estimates of ultimate losses. As a result, this method is often unsuitable at early development stages for an accident year or underwriting year.
Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method ("BF Method"): This method can be seen as a combination of the ELR and Loss Development Methods, under which the Loss Development Method is given progressively more weight as an accident year or underwriting year matures. The main advantage of the BF Method is that it provides a more stable estimate of ultimate losses than the Loss Development Method at earlier stages of development, while remaining more responsive to emerging loss development than the ELR Method. In addition, the BF Method allows for the incorporation of external market information through the use of expected loss ratios, whereas the Loss Development Method does not incorporate such information.
As part of the loss reserving process, the Company's actuaries employ the estimation method(s) that they believe will produce the most reliable estimate of ultimate losses, at that particular evaluation date, for each reserve class and accident year or underwriting year combination. Often, this is a blend (i.e. weighted average) of the results of two or more appropriate actuarial methods. These ultimate loss estimates are generally utilized to evaluate the adequacy of ultimate loss estimates for previous accident or underwriting years, established in the prior reporting period. For the initial estimate of the current accident or underwriting year, the available claim data is typically insufficient to produce a reliable estimate of ultimate losses. As a result, initial estimates for an accident or underwriting year are generally based on the ELR Method for longer tailed lines and a BF Method for shorter tailed lines. The initial ELR for each reserve class is established by the Company's actuaries at the start of the year as part of the planning process, taking into consideration prior accident years’ or underwriting years' experience and industry benchmarks, adjusted after considering factors such as loss and exposure trends, rate differences, changes in contract terms and conditions, business mix changes and other known differences between the current year and prior accident or underwriting years. The initial expected loss ratios for a given accident or underwriting year may be modified over time if the underlying assumptions, such as loss development or premium rate changes, differ from the original assumptions.
Key Actuarial Assumptions
The use of the above actuarial methods requires the Company to make certain explicit assumptions, the most significant of which are: (1) expected loss ratios and (2) loss development patterns.
The Company relies on historical loss experience in establishing expected loss ratios and selecting loss development patterns. In establishing expected loss ratios for the insurance segment, consideration is given to a number of other factors, including exposure trends, rate adequacy on new and renewal business, ceded reinsurance costs, changes in claims emergence and the Company's underwriters’ view of terms and conditions in the market environment. For the reinsurance segment, expected loss ratios are based on a contract-by-contract review, which considers information provided by clients together with estimates provided by the Company's underwriters and actuaries about the impact of changes in pricing, terms and conditions and coverage. Market experience for some lines of business as compiled and analyzed by an independent actuarial firm is also considered, as appropriate.
Claim Tail Analysis
Short-tail Business
Short-tail business generally includes exposures for which losses are usually known and paid within a relatively short period of time after the underlying loss event has occurred. Short-tail business includes the underlying exposures in the property and other, marine, and aviation (hull and war business) reserve classes in the insurance segment, and the underlying exposures in the property and other reserve class in the reinsurance segment.
The key actuarial assumptions for short-tail business are primarily developed with reference to the Company's historical loss experience for expected loss ratios and loss development patterns utilized to establish estimates of ultimate losses for an accident year. Due to the relatively short reporting and settlement patterns for short-tail business, more weight is generally placed on experience-based methods and other qualitative considerations in establishing reserves for recent and more mature accident years.
The majority of development for an accident year or underwriting year is expected to be recognized in the subsequent one to three years.
Medium-tail Business
Medium-tail business generally has claim reporting and settlement periods that are longer than those of short-tail reserve classes. Medium-tail business includes the underlying exposures in the professional lines, credit and political risk and aviation (liability business) reserve classes in the insurance segment, and the credit and surety reserve class in the reinsurance segment. The Company considers credit and political risk business to have a medium-tail, due to the complex nature of claims and the potential additional time that may be required to realize subrogation assets.
Refer to 'Net incurred and Paid Claims Development Tables by Accident Year – Insurance segment – Insurance Professional Lines', 'Net incurred and Paid Claims Development Tables by Accident Year – Reinsurance segment – Reinsurance Professional Lines', 'Net incurred and Paid Claims Development Tables by Accident Year – Insurance segment – Insurance Credit and Political Risk' and Net incurred and Paid Claims Development Tables by Accident Year – Reinsurance segment – Reinsurance Credit and Surety' for further details on key actuarial assumptions associated with these reserve classes.
Long-tail Business
In contrast to short and medium-tail business, the claim tail for long-tail business is expected to be notably longer, as claims are often reported and ultimately paid or settled years, or even decades, after the related loss events occur. Long-tail business includes the underlying exposures in the liability reserve class in the insurance segment and the liability and motor reserve classes in the reinsurance segment.
As a general rule, estimates of accident year or underwriting year ultimate losses for long-tail business are notably more uncertain than those for short and medium-tail business. To date, key actuarial assumptions for long-tail business have been derived from a combination of industry benchmarks supplemented with Company historical loss experience. While industry benchmarks that the Company believes reflect the nature and coverage of its business are considered, actual loss experience may differ from the benchmarks based on industry averages. Due to the length of the development tail for this business, reserve estimates for most accident years and underwriting years are predominantly based on the BF Method or ELR Method and the consideration of qualitative factors.
Reserving for Significant Catastrophic Events
The Company cannot estimate losses from widespread catastrophic events, such as hurricanes and earthquakes, using the traditional actuarial methods described above. The magnitude and complexity of losses associated with certain of these events inherently increase the level of uncertainty and, therefore, the level of management judgment involved in arriving at estimated net reserves for losses and loss expenses. As a result, actual losses for these events may ultimately differ materially from current estimates.
Net reserves for losses and loss expenses related to the COVID-19 pandemic represents the Company's best estimate of losses and loss expenses that have been incurred at December 31, 2021. The determination of these net reserves for losses and loss expenses was based on the Company's ground-up assessment of coverage from individual contracts and treaties across all lines of business, and included a review of modeling analyses and market information, where appropriate. In addition, the Company considered information received from clients, brokers and loss adjusters together with global shelter-in-place orders and the outcomes of recent court judgments, including the UK Supreme Court ruling on January 15, 2021.
The estimate of net reserves for losses and loss expenses related to the COVID-19 pandemic is subject to significant uncertainty. This uncertainty is driven by the inherent difficulty in making assumptions around the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic due to the lack of comparable events, the ongoing nature of the event, and its far-reaching impacts on world-wide economies and the health of the population. These assumptions include:
the nature and the duration of the pandemic;
the effects on health, the economy and the Company's customers;
the response of government bodies including legislative, regulatory or judicial actions and social influences that could alter the interpretation of the Company's contracts;
the coverage provided under the Company's contracts;
the coverage provided by the Company's ceded reinsurance; and
the evaluation of the loss and impact of loss mitigation actions.
While the Company believes its estimate of net reserves for losses and loss expenses is adequate for losses and loss expenses that have been incurred at December 31, 2021 based on current facts and circumstances, the Company continues to monitor the appropriateness of these assumptions as new information comes to light, and adjustments are made to the estimate of ultimate losses related to the COVID-19 pandemic if there are developments that are different from previous expectations. Adjustments are recorded in the period in which they are identified. Actual losses for this event may ultimately differ materially from the Company's current estimates.
Net reserves for losses and loss expenses related to catastrophes other than the COVID-19 pandemic represent the Company's best estimate of losses and loss expenses that have been incurred at December 31, 2021. The determination of these net reserves for losses and loss expenses is estimated by management after a catastrophe occurs by completing an in-depth analysis of individual contracts which may potentially have been impacted by the catastrophic event. This in-depth analysis may rely on several sources of information including:
estimates of the size of insured industry losses from the catastrophic event and the Company's corresponding market share;
a review of the Company's portfolio of contracts to identify those contracts which may be exposed to the catastrophic event;
a review of modeled loss estimates based on information previously reported by customers and brokers, including exposure data obtained during the underwriting process;
discussions of the impact of the event with customers and brokers; and
catastrophe bulletins published by various independent statistical reporting agencies.
A blend of these information sources is generally used to arrive at aggregate estimates of the ultimate losses arising from these catastrophic events.
While the Company believes its estimate of net reserves for losses and loss expenses is adequate for losses and loss expenses that have been incurred at December 31, 2021 based on current facts and circumstances, the Company monitors changes in paid and incurred losses in relation to each significant catastrophe in subsequent reporting periods and adjustments are made to estimates of ultimate losses for each event if there are developments that are different from previous expectations. Adjustments are recorded in the period in which they are identified. Actual losses for these events may ultimately differ materially from the Company's current estimates.
Selection of Reported Reserves – Management’s Best Estimate
The Company's loss reserving process involves the collaboration of its underwriting, claims, actuarial, legal, ceded reinsurance and finance departments, including various segmental committee meetings and culminates with the approval of a single point best estimate by the Company's Group Reserving Committee, which comprises senior management. In selecting this best estimate, management considers actuarial estimates and applies informed judgment regarding qualitative factors that may not be fully captured in these actuarial estimates. Such factors include, but are not limited to, the timing of the emergence of claims, volume and complexity of claims, social and judicial trends, potential severity of individual claims and the extent of Company historical loss data versus industry information. While these qualitative factors are considered in arriving at the point estimate, no specific provisions for qualitative factors are established.
Reserve for Losses and Loss Expenses
Reserve for losses and loss expenses comprise the following:
At December 31,20212020
Reserve for reported losses and loss expenses$5,539,971 $5,331,900 
Reserve for losses incurred but not reported9,113,123 8,594,866 
Reserve for losses and loss expenses$14,653,094 $13,926,766 
Reserve Roll-forward
The following table presents a reconciliation of the Company's beginning and ending gross reserves for losses and loss expenses and net reserves for unpaid losses and loss expenses:
Year ended December 31,202120202019
Gross reserve for losses and loss expenses, beginning of year$13,926,766 $12,752,081 $12,280,769 
Less reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses, beginning of year(4,496,641)(3,877,756)(3,501,669)
Net reserve for unpaid losses and loss expenses, beginning of year9,430,125 8,874,325 8,779,100 
Net incurred losses and loss expenses related to:
Current year3,041,193 3,297,161 3,123,698 
Prior years(32,410)(15,909)(78,900)
 3,008,783 3,281,252 3,044,798 
Net paid losses and loss expenses related to:
Current year(490,011)(571,442)(598,988)
Prior years(2,274,240)(2,365,959)(2,371,637)
 (2,764,251)(2,937,401)(2,970,625)
Foreign exchange and other(39,174)211,949 21,052 
Net reserve for unpaid losses and loss expenses, end of year9,635,483 9,430,125 8,874,325 
Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses, end of year5,017,611 4,496,641 3,877,756 
Gross reserve for losses and loss expenses, end of year$14,653,094 $13,926,766 $12,752,081 
The Company writes business with loss experience generally characterized as low frequency and high severity in nature, which can result in volatility in its financial results. During 2021, 2020 and 2019, the Company recognized catastrophe and weather-related losses, net of reinstatement premiums, of $443 million, $774 million and $336 million.
At December 31, 2021, foreign exchange and other included a reduction in reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses of $49 million related to the Reinsurance to Close of the 2018 year of account of Syndicate 2007.
On December 15, 2019, the Company entered into a quota share retrocessional agreement with Harrington Re, a related party, which was deemed to have met the established criteria for retroactive reinsurance accounting. The Company recognized reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses of $59 million related to this reinsurance agreement. This transaction was conducted at market rates consistent with negotiated arms-length contracts.
Estimates for Significant Catastrophe Events
At December 31, 2021, net reserve for losses and loss expenses included estimated amounts for numerous catastrophe events. The magnitude and complexity of losses arising from certain of these events inherently increase the level of uncertainty and, therefore, the level of management judgment involved in arriving at estimated net reserves for losses and loss expenses. These events include Hurricane Ida, U.S. Winter Storms Uri and Viola, and July European Floods in 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic, Hurricanes Laura, Sally, Zeta and Delta, Midwest derecho and wildfires across the West Coast of the United States in 2020, Japanese Typhoons Hagibis, Faxai and Tapah, Hurricane Dorian and Australia Wildfires in 2019 and Hurricanes Michael and Florence, California Wildfires and Typhoon Jebi in 2018. As a result, actual losses for these events may ultimately differ materially from current estimates.
Prior Year Reserve Development
The Company's net favorable prior year reserve development arises from changes to estimates for losses and loss expenses related to loss events that occurred in previous calendar years. The following table presents net prior year reserve development by segment:
Favorable (Adverse)
Insurance ReinsuranceTotal
Year ended December 31, 2021$18,360 $14,049 $32,410 
Year ended December 31, 20208,937 6,972 15,909 
Year ended December 31, 201953,302 25,598 78,900 
The following sections provide further details on net prior year reserve development by segment, reserving class and accident year.
Insurance Segment:
Favorable (Adverse)
Years ended December 31,202120202019
Property and other$86,876 $46,791 $11,042 
Marine28,430 16,780 33,260 
Aviation14,106 6,416 3,741 
Credit and political risk10,363 (745)18,810 
Professional lines(78,588)(35,661)11,721 
Liability(42,827)(24,644)(25,272)
Total$18,360 $8,937 $53,302 

In 2021, we recognized $18 million of net favorable prior year reserve development, the principal components of which were:

$87 million of net favorable prior year reserve development on property and other business primarily due to decreases in loss estimates attributable to specific large claims related to the 2011 and 2012 accident years, and better than expected loss emergence attributable to the 2018 to 2020 catastrophe events, the global property book of business related to 2017 to 2019 accident years, and the accident and health book of business related to the 2019 and 2020 accident years.

$28 million of net favorable prior year reserve development on marine business primarily due to better than expected loss emergence attributable to cargo, offshore energy and specie books of business mainly related to the 2017, 2018 and 2020 accident years and decreases in loss estimates attributable to specific large claims related to 2012 accident year.
$14 million of net favorable prior year reserve development on aviation business primarily due to better than expected loss emergence mainly related to the 2020 accident year.

$10 million of net favorable prior year reserve development on credit and political risk business primarily due to better than expected loss emergence mainly related to the 2018 and 2019 accident years.

$79 million of net adverse prior year reserve development on professional lines business primarily due to reserve strengthening within runoff lines of business mainly related to the 2016 to 2019 accident years, the U.S. commercial management solutions book of business mainly related to the 2017 and 2019 accident years and the global cyber and technology book of business mainly related to the 2019 accident year.

$43 million of net adverse prior year reserve development on liability business primarily due to reserve strengthening within the program book of business mainly related to the 2018 and 2019 accident years.

In 2020, we recognized $9 million of net favorable prior year reserve development, the principal components of which were:

$47 million of net favorable prior year reserve development on property and other business primarily due to better than expected loss emergence mainly related to the 2018 and 2019 accident years, and better than expected loss emergence attributable to the 2017 to 2019 catastrophe events.

$17 million of net favorable prior year reserve development on marine business primarily due to better than expected loss emergence mainly related to the 2018 accident year.

$36 million of net adverse prior year reserve development on professional lines business primarily due to reserve strengthening within the European professional indemnity and financial institutions books of business and the U.S. commercial management solutions book of business mainly related to the 2018 and 2019 accident years and an increase in the loss estimate attributable to a specific large claim related to the 2009 accident year.

$25 million of net adverse prior year reserve development on liability business primarily due to reserve strengthening within the primary casualty, U.S. excess casualty and program books of business mainly related to the 2017 and 2018 accident years.

In 2019, we recognized $53 million of net favorable prior year reserve development, the principal components of which were:
 
$33 million of net favorable prior year reserve development on marine business primarily due to better than expected loss emergence mainly related to the 2015 to 2017 accident years.

$19 million of net favorable prior year reserve development on credit and political risk business primarily due to better than expected loss emergence mainly related to recent accident years.

$12 million of net favorable prior year reserve development on professional lines business reflecting generally favorable experience on older accident years as the Company continued to transition to more experience based actuarial methods.

$11 million of net favorable prior year reserve development on property and other business primarily due to better than expected loss emergence related to the 2017 catastrophe events and SuperStorm Sandy, partially offset by reserve strengthening within the International book of business mainly related to the 2018 accident year.

$25 million of net adverse prior year reserve development on liability business primarily due to reserve strengthening within the U.S. excess casualty and U.S. primary casualty books of business mainly driven by the higher frequency and severity of auto claims and the higher frequency of general liability claims mainly related to the 2015 and 2017 accident years.
Reinsurance Segment:
Favorable (Adverse)
Years ended December 31,202120202019
Property and other$8,282 $(5,935)$(133,448)
Credit and surety3,436 36,829 53,223 
Professional lines(23,718)(15,352)3,668 
Motor43,968 21,086 70,872 
Liability(17,919)(29,656)31,283 
Total$14,049 $6,972 $25,598 
In 2021, we recognized $14 million of net favorable prior year reserve development, the principal components of which were:
$44 million of net favorable prior year reserve development on motor business primarily due to proportional and non-proportional treaty business mainly related to 2016 and older accident years.

$8 million of net favorable prior year reserve development on property and other business primarily due to decreases in loss estimates attributable to specific large claims within the property and engineering lines of business related to the 2018 accident year, decreases in the loss estimates attributable to specific large claims within the property line of business related to the 2009, 2017 and 2019 accident years, better than expected loss emergence attributable to the 2017 to 2019 catastrophe events, and to the accident and health book of business mainly related to the 2019 and 2020 accident years, partially offset by reserve strengthening attributable to the 2020 catastrophe events and within the engineering line of business mainly related to the 2016, 2017 and 2019 accident years.

$24 million of net adverse prior year reserve development on professional lines business primarily due to reserve strengthening within the U.S. and European books of business related to the 2015 to 2018 accident years and increases in the loss estimates attributable to specific large claims related to the 2015 to 2017 accident years.

$18 million of net adverse prior year reserve development on liability business primarily due to increases in loss estimates attributable to specific large claims related to the 2017 and 2018 accident years and reserve strengthening within the commercial auto liability and U.S. multiline/regional books of business related to the 2018 accident year.

In 2020, we recognized $7 million of net favorable prior year reserve development, the principal components of which were:

$37 million of net favorable prior year reserve development on credit and surety business primarily due to better than expected loss emergence related to several accident years.

$21 million of net favorable prior year reserve development on motor business primarily due to non-proportional treaty business mainly related to older accident years, partially offset by increases in loss estimates for proportional treaty business mainly related to the 2018 accident year.

$30 million of net adverse prior year reserve development on liability business due to reserve strengthening within the U.S. casualty, the U.S. multiline/regional and the European books of business mainly related to the 2016 to 2019 accident years and an increase in the loss estimate attributable to a specific large claim related to the 2009 accident year.

$15 million of net adverse prior year reserve development on professional lines business due to an increase in the loss estimate attributable to a specific large claim related to the 2016 accident year and reserve strengthening within the European book of business mainly related to the 2016 to 2018 accident years.
$6 million of net adverse prior year reserve development on property and other business primarily due to an increase in the loss estimate attributable to a specific large claim within the marine and aviation line of business related to the 2019 accident year, reserve strengthening within the engineering line of business mainly related to the 2016 to 2018 accident years, partially offset by net favorable prior year reserve development within the property line of business due to better than expected loss emergence attributable to the 2019 catastrophe events.

In 2019, we recognized $26 million of net favorable prior year reserve development, the principal components of which were:
$71 million of net favorable prior year reserve development on motor business primarily due to the impact of the increase in the Ogden Rate and changes in related actuarial assumptions on several accident years.

$53 million of net favorable prior year reserve development on credit and surety business primarily due to better than expected loss emergence mainly related to accident years 2015 to 2017.

$31 million of net favorable prior year reserve development on liability business primarily due to increased weight given by management to experience based indications on older accident years.

$133 million of net adverse prior year reserve development on property and other business primarily due to an increase in loss estimates attributable to Hurricanes Irma and Michael consistent with industry trends, an increase in the loss estimate attributable to Typhoon Jebi consistent with updated industry insured loss estimates, and reserve strengthening within the U.S. regional and commercial proportional property books of business and the European proportional property book of business.
Net Incurred and Paid Claims Development Tables by Accident Year
The following tables present net incurred and paid claims development by accident year, total incurred-but-not-reported liabilities plus expected development on reported claims, cumulative reported claims frequency and average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age for each reserve class. The loss development tables are presented on an accident year basis for each reserve class in the insurance and reinsurance segments. The Company does not discount reserves for losses and loss expenses.
Non-U.S. dollar denominated loss data is converted to U.S. dollar at the rates of exchange in effect at the balance sheet date for material underlying currencies. Fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates may cause material shifts in loss development. Reserves for losses and loss expenses disclosed in the consolidated balance sheets are also remeasured using the rates of exchange in effect at the balance sheet date.
There are many considerations in establishing net reserves for losses and loss expenses. An attempt to evaluate net reserves for losses and loss expenses using solely the paid losses and claim counts presented in these tables could be misleading. When projecting net reserves for losses and loss expenses, the Company relies on several inputs in addition to the information presented in this disclosure including case incurred loss projections, changes in mix of business, external trends, and additional qualitative information. The Company cautions against mechanical application of standard actuarial methodologies to project ultimate losses using data presented in this disclosure.
Insurance Segment
The reporting of cumulative claims frequency for the reserve classes within the insurance segment has been measured by counting the number of unique claim references including claim references assigned to nil and nominal case reserves. Claim references are grouped by claimant by loss event for each reserve class. For certain insurance facilities and business produced by managing general agents where underlying data is reported to the Company in an aggregated format, the information necessary to provide cumulative claims frequency is not available therefore reporting of claims frequency is deemed to be impracticable.
Insurance Property and Other
This reserve class includes property, terrorism, accident and health, and discontinued lines - Novae.
The property line of business provides physical loss or damage, business interruption and machinery breakdown cover for virtually all types of property, including commercial buildings, residential premises, construction projects and onshore renewable energy installations. This line of business includes primary and excess risks, some of which are catastrophe-exposed.
The terrorism line of business provides cover for physical damage and business interruption of an insured following an act of terrorism and includes kidnap and ransom, and crisis management insurance.
The accident and health line of business includes accidental death, travel insurance and specialty health products for employer and affinity groups. An increase in limited benefits medical business written in 2017 resulted in a significant increase in reported claims observed in that year.
The discontinued lines - Novae includes the international direct and facultative property line of business that Novae exited or placed into run-off in the fourth quarter of 2016.
In general, reporting and payment patterns are relatively short-tailed although they can be volatile due to the incidence of catastrophe events.
Insurance property and other
Incurred claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsuranceAt December 31, 2021
For the years ended December 31,Total of incurred-but-not-reported liabilities plus expected development on reported claimsCumulative number of reported claims
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$392,832 $402,013 $383,920 $363,521 $359,326 $353,602 $352,761 $342,723 $342,406 $335,903 $29,793
2013310,545 300,371 273,448 269,504 269,153 279,588 275,919 275,403 276,632 1,069 53,020
2014362,013 356,814 346,144 330,094 329,003 327,406 322,723 319,317 2,739 62,221
2015279,805 272,498 261,501 257,068 254,221 256,252 245,590 988 48,317
2016353,241 380,615 371,911 358,721 352,464 355,523 3,631 93,582
2017905,430 830,525 822,660 811,219 807,759 3,783 698,013
2018725,996 784,554 764,189 754,009 17,643 740,146
2019451,522 446,574 437,227 17,971 674,310
2020741,881 711,366 97,496 699,571
2021452,055 121,860 293,463
Total$4,695,381 
Insurance property and other
Cumulative paid claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
For the years ended December 31,
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$77,684 $214,440 $278,538 $301,512 $309,042 $314,210 $314,282 $316,388 $316,614 $316,722 
201376,142 199,585 238,483 249,534 260,576 263,605 265,442 269,290 273,752 
2014133,186 260,405 307,040 314,197 318,414 319,601 316,305 316,319 
2015100,169 204,138 228,910 243,213 243,895 250,620 242,516 
2016125,806 292,009 332,043 340,568 341,693 348,739 
2017256,234 629,722 745,770 775,507 773,007 
2018288,200 585,855 685,681 699,094 
2019197,452 328,183 382,521 
2020220,838 486,815 
2021174,401 
Total4,013,886 
All outstanding liabilities before 2012, net of reinsurance7,291 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance$688,786 
Insurance property and other
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance (unaudited)
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10
35.3%40.8%13.7%3.8%1.3%1.5%(0.9%)0.7%0.9%—%
Insurance Marine
This reserve class includes the marine line of business which provides cover for traditional marine classes, including offshore energy, renewable offshore energy, cargo, liability, recreational marine, fine art, specie, and hull war. Offshore energy coverage includes physical damage, business interruption, operators extra expense and liability coverage for all aspects of offshore upstream energy, from exploration and construction through the operation and distribution phases. The complex nature of claims arising under marine policies tends to result in reporting and payment patterns that are longer than those of the property and other reserve class. Exposure to natural perils such as windstorm and earthquake can result in volatility.
Insurance marine
Incurred claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsuranceAt December 31, 2021
For the years ended December 31,Total of incurred-but-not-reported liabilities plus expected development on reported claimsCumulative number of reported claims
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$89,643 $83,026 $68,936 $71,000 $72,020 $74,541 $72,698 $62,100 $65,122 $64,686 $2,932 4,135
201379,514 100,613 95,940 97,010 82,261 81,822 80,781 79,950 80,797 1,218 2,356
201459,719 44,469 48,205 44,152 45,634 46,932 40,617 38,112 2,693 2,169
2015159,499 140,502 135,999 128,687 116,686 121,677 122,084 1,057 2,232
201686,403 78,726 76,441 71,066 69,814 68,897 2,105 2,867
2017206,441 169,508 167,118 163,222 154,218 12,183 4,038
2018182,358 203,260 191,806 185,628 27,926 4,426
2019169,706 167,184 171,244 29,024 4,668
2020171,330 155,167 55,833 4,491
2021199,007 130,108 3,447
Total$1,239,840 
Insurance marine
Cumulative paid claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
For the years ended December 31,
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$10,706 $38,466 $44,734 $49,474 $50,284 $52,631 $54,621 $55,654 $55,830 $58,122 
201318,873 43,866 54,648 62,825 65,493 76,517 76,660 77,937 79,163 
20146,362 15,154 26,542 26,682 35,631 40,256 41,344 35,155 
201521,446 54,640 107,512 110,367 111,761 113,293 120,216 
201612,490 31,822 57,267 63,245 64,019 65,143 
201714,634 67,622 91,342 115,634 122,148 
201826,752 85,409 115,600 126,986 
201936,293 75,653 116,160 
202038,554 72,095 
202120,043 
Total815,231 
All outstanding liabilities before 2012, net of reinsurance5,859 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance$430,468 
Insurance marine
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance (unaudited)
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10
17.2%29.2%23.6%7.2%5.8%6.4%3.0%(4.3%)0.9%3.5%
Insurance Aviation
This reserve class includes the aviation line of business which provides cover for hull and liability, and specific war cover primarily for passenger airlines but also for cargo operations, general aviation operations, airports, aviation authorities, security firms and product manufacturers. The claims reporting pattern varies by insurance coverage provided. Losses arising from war or terrorism and damage to hulls of aircraft are generally reported quickly compared with liability claims which involve passengers and third parties and generally exhibit longer reporting and payment patterns. To date, the claims reported to the Company have predominantly related to damage to hulls, therefore, reporting and payment patterns have typically exhibited a relatively short-tail.
Insurance aviation
Incurred claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsuranceAt December 31, 2021
For the years ended December 31,Total of incurred-but-not-reported liabilities plus expected development on reported claimsCumulative number of reported claims
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$12,782 $10,670 $10,795 $8,709 $7,760 $7,703 $7,590 $7,383 $7,302 $7,205 $36 886
201315,654 16,334 15,207 15,249 15,586 15,471 16,763 16,670 16,451 260 1,043
201420,437 23,038 24,357 21,798 21,857 19,097 17,350 16,716 121 1,374
201529,786 28,512 29,845 29,579 27,522 28,001 27,517 179 2,053
201629,180 33,517 33,679 31,745 32,473 32,545 325 1,945
201755,401 61,524 66,263 68,549 69,799 (458)4,466
201857,877 63,348 61,678 61,338 2,610 4,214
201944,106 41,658 41,123 2,003 2,778
202037,391 25,380 6,355 1,584
202143,585 22,283 1,268
Total$341,659 
Insurance aviation
Cumulative paid claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
For the years ended December 31,
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$956 $2,863 $4,153 $5,950 $6,823 $7,044 $7,157 $7,093 $7,091 $7,098 
20134,401 7,330 9,748 11,450 13,561 14,170 14,487 15,948 15,974 
20143,989 8,028 11,698 13,856 14,493 14,856 15,027 15,086 
20158,086 16,166 20,968 23,227 24,686 25,993 26,107 
201610,416 19,289 26,274 27,838 29,074 29,926 
201721,176 40,035 50,585 58,920 61,312 
201821,235 40,068 47,287 50,347 
201918,052 28,771 31,628 
20206,324 12,954 
20217,532 
Total257,964 
All outstanding liabilities before 2012, net of reinsurance4,508 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance$88,203 
Insurance aviation
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance (unaudited)
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10
27.6%26.1%15.9%11.1%6.9%3.3%1.2%2.8%0.1%0.1%
Insurance Credit and Political Risk
This reserve class includes the credit and political risk line of business which provides credit and political risk insurance products for banks, commodity traders, corporations and multilateral and export credit agencies. Cover is provided for a range of risks including sovereign and corporate credit default, political violence, currency inconvertibility and non-transfer, expropriation, aircraft non-repossession and contract frustration due to political events.
The credit insurance coverage is primarily for lenders seeking to mitigate the risk of non-payment from their borrowers. In order to claim compensation under a credit insurance contract, the insured (most often a bank) cannot assign, without the Company's prior agreement, the insured contract (most often a loan) to any third party and is normally obliged to hold a material portion of insured asset on their books, unhedged and uninsured. Claims for this business tend to be characterized by their severity risk, as opposed to their frequency risk.
Claim reporting and payment patterns are anticipated to be volatile and are generally medium-tailed. Under the notification provisions of credit insurance policies issued by the Company, it anticipates being advised of an insured event within a relatively short time period. Consequently, the Company generally estimates ultimate losses based on a contract-by-contract analysis which considers the contracts’ terms, the facts and circumstances of underlying loss events and qualitative input from claims managers.
Insurance credit and political risk
Incurred claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsuranceAt December 31, 2021
For the years ended December 31,Total of incurred-but-not-reported liabilities plus expected development on reported claimsCumulative number of reported claims
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$32,602 $15,672 $12,435 $12,447 $10,322 $47 $199 $199 $199 $49 $4
201326,439 25,684 9,759 9,880 14,942 14,067 12,377 12,739 12,614 462 2
201438,825 70,713 67,109 68,324 69,589 71,275 70,747 69,113 — 6
201530,329 30,368 27,524 26,012 25,930 24,851 24,189 880 2
201645,760 44,711 42,221 42,792 26,577 25,597 1,081 1
201748,555 33,148 27,634 19,804 17,592 8,590 3
201843,738 36,562 35,546 27,656 13,354 2
201951,407 79,778 73,471 16,248 19
202060,927 69,263 31,314 37
202142,600 39,624 8
Total$362,144 
Insurance credit and political risk
Cumulative paid claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
For the years ended December 31,
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$— $— $— $— $40 $42 $44 $44 $44 $44 
2013745 2,235 3,726 5,216 11,769 13,828 13,828 13,828 12,151 
20141,924 39,952 61,108 57,858 57,858 64,051 70,224 70,224 
2015— 23,309 23,309 23,309 23,309 23,309 23,309 
2016— 24,516 24,516 24,516 24,516 24,516 
2017421 4,173 9,529 12,034 11,252 
20185,552 13,897 15,971 12,432 
201916,431 46,924 54,239 
202010,013 91,352 
20212,769 
Total302,288 
All outstanding liabilities before 2012, net of reinsurance(874)
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance$58,982 
Insurance credit and political risk
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance (unaudited)
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10
7.5%52.2%11.3%1.2%21.5%5.9%3.3%—%(6.7%)—%
Insurance Professional Lines
This reserve class includes the professional lines line of business which provides directors’ and officers’ liability, errors and omissions liability, employment practices liability, fiduciary liability, crime, professional indemnity, cyber and privacy insurance, medical malpractice and other financial insurance related covers for public and private commercial enterprises, financial institutions, not-for-profit organizations and other professional service providers. This reserve class also includes discontinued lines - Novae specifically the financial institutions and professional indemnity lines of business that Novae exited or placed into run-off in the first quarter of 2017. This business is predominantly written on a claims-made basis. Typically, this reserve class is anticipated to exhibit medium to long-tail claim reporting and payment patterns.
With respect to key actuarial assumptions, the Company relies on its loss experience when establishing expected loss ratios and selecting loss development patterns. Loss reporting patterns for professional lines business tend to be volatile, causing instability in actuarial indications based on incurred loss data until an accident year or underwriting year matures. Consequently, initial reserves for losses and loss expenses for an accident year or underwriting year are generally based on an ELR Method and the consideration of relevant qualitative factors. As accident years and underwriting years mature, the Company increasingly gives more weight to methods that reflect its experience until its selections are based almost exclusively on experience-based methods. The Company evaluates the appropriateness of the transition to experience-based methods at the reserve class level, commencing this transition when it believes that its incurred loss development is sufficient to produce meaningful actuarial indications. The rate at which the Company transitions fully to sole reliance on experience-based methods can vary by reserve class and by year, depending on its assessment of the stability and relevance of such indications. For some professional lines in the insurance segment, the Company also relies on the evaluation of the open claim inventory in addition to the commonly employed actuarial methods when establishing reserves.
Insurance professional lines
Incurred claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsuranceAt December 31, 2021
For the years ended December 31,Total of incurred-but-not-reported liabilities plus expected development on reported claimsCumulative number of reported claims
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$329,064 $376,334 $377,681 $376,619 $363,769 $365,781 $354,414 $352,476 $334,321 $337,000 $20,571 8,348
2013384,382 398,008 399,307 366,094 355,419 357,807 335,888 339,108 335,453 36,146 9,473
2014413,511 412,262 422,079 392,916 372,390 354,972 348,326 351,729 51,739 9,858
2015378,217 377,970 383,614 358,613 345,416 328,723 329,377 47,302 10,532
2016350,015 352,753 359,176 360,698 370,847 374,148 58,192 11,909
2017394,239 398,881 440,090 436,589 453,259 103,291 13,870
2018363,496 379,463 433,040 460,903 130,876 16,765
2019406,170 428,019 467,030 206,644 16,954
2020440,967 432,895 283,686 11,622
2021509,463 448,897 8,271
Total$4,051,257 
Insurance professional lines
Cumulative paid claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
For the years ended December 31,
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$7,825 $41,505 $100,434 $184,776 $231,582 $254,682 $274,150 $282,494 $298,902 $304,095 
201317,718 73,251 130,081 176,433 213,979 243,890 264,537 277,239 291,767 
201423,579 70,688 130,348 192,845 224,461 243,586 253,387 277,463 
201520,291 67,886 138,136 170,009 204,121 243,082 258,963 
201615,913 71,229 147,678 192,832 234,825 261,321 
201721,052 71,877 139,143 206,193 240,455 
201820,945 82,982 155,101 222,374 
201928,206 99,158 169,088 
202026,640 95,558 
202134,035 
Total2,155,119 
All outstanding liabilities before 2012, net of reinsurance113,232 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance$2,009,370 
Insurance professional lines
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance (unaudited)
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10
5.3%13.9%17.3%15.4%10.6%8.0%4.9%4.4%4.6%1.5%
Insurance Liability
This reserve class includes the liability line of business which primarily targets primary and low to mid-level excess and umbrella commercial liability risks in the U.S. wholesale markets in addition to primary and excess of loss employers, public and products liability business predominately in the U.K. This reserve class also includes discontinued lines - Novae specifically the international liability line of business that Novae exited or placed into run-off in the fourth quarter of 2016. Target industry sectors include construction, manufacturing, transportation and trucking and other services. The delay between the writing of a contract, notification and subsequent settlement of a claim in respect of that contract results in claim reporting and payment patterns that are typically long-tail in nature. A consequence of the claim development tail is that this line of business is particularly exposed, among a number of uncertainties, to the potential for unanticipated levels of claim inflation relative to that assumed when the contracts were written. Factors influencing claim inflation on this class can include, but are not limited to, underlying economic and medical inflation, judicial inflation, mass tort and changing social trends.
Insurance liability
Incurred claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsuranceAt December 31, 2021
For the years ended December 31,Total of incurred-but-not-reported liabilities plus expected development on reported claimsCumulative number of reported claims
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$70,859 $71,690 $74,135 $71,474 $68,658 $75,698 $72,727 $67,238 $64,542 $61,993 $10,249 3,355
201393,234 95,309 95,175 88,243 93,682 95,983 91,943 89,902 94,201 13,218 3,690
2014107,136 124,313 129,774 130,674 132,021 131,477 132,585 132,064 14,321 5,265
2015128,437 127,424 137,652 165,160 182,891 188,218 187,146 26,055 6,390
2016124,322 130,209 128,940 127,572 120,333 120,309 27,993 7,208
2017167,803 165,661 185,998 202,508 206,833 36,274 8,471
2018168,202 169,241 192,289 205,961 51,462 8,292
2019192,358 193,526 222,820 83,628 7,567
2020225,407 225,866 171,715 5,285
2021233,055 198,167 4,171
Total$1,690,248 
Insurance liability
Cumulative paid claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
For the years ended December 31,
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$1,631 $5,514 $15,411 $30,145 $37,139 $42,740 $46,541 $48,034 $48,316 $48,505 
20132,360 23,281 33,320 42,051 60,005 66,964 71,983 73,314 78,023 
20141,414 18,643 49,839 71,596 84,376 93,576 103,050 106,215 
20155,438 22,444 39,702 92,744 120,313 141,002 150,848 
20166,323 23,289 36,382 56,455 66,371 79,594 
20175,561 29,610 59,306 116,157 144,267 
20189,460 34,931 72,398 119,446 
20197,887 39,986 83,943 
20208,163 25,245 
202113,413 
Total849,499 
All outstanding liabilities before 2012, net of reinsurance61,635 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance$902,384 
Insurance liability
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance (unaudited)
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10
3.5%12.3%15.3%20.7%12.8%9.1%6.0%2.1%2.8%0.3%
Reinsurance Segment
The presentation of net incurred and paid claims development tables by accident year for the reinsurance segment is challenging due to the need to allocate loss information related to proportional treaties to the appropriate accident years. Information related to proportional treaty reinsurance contracts is generally submitted to the Company via quarterly bordereaux reporting by underwriting year, with a supplemental listing of large losses. Large losses can be allocated to the corresponding accident years accurately. The remaining losses can generally only be allocated to accident years based on estimated premiums earned and loss reporting patterns. To the extent management’s assumptions and allocation procedures differ from the actual loss development patterns, the actual loss development may differ materially from the net incurred and paid claims development presented in the tables below.
The reporting of cumulative claims frequency for the reserve classes within the reinsurance segment is deemed to be impracticable as the information necessary to provide cumulative claims frequency for these reserve classes is not available to the Company.
Reinsurance Property and Other
This reserve class includes catastrophe, property, agriculture, engineering, marine and aviation, accident and health, and discontinued lines - Novae.
The catastrophe line of business provides protection for most catastrophic losses that are covered in the underlying insurance policies written by the Company's cedants. The underlying policies principally cover property-related exposures but other exposures including workers compensation and personal accident are also covered. The principal perils covered by policies in this portfolio include hurricane and windstorm, earthquake, flood, tornado, hail and fire. In some instances, terrorism may be a covered peril or the only peril. This business is written on a proportional and an excess of loss basis.
The property line of business provides protection for property damage and related losses resulting from natural and man-made perils that are covered in underlying personal and commercial lines insurance policies written by the Company's cedants. The predominant exposure is to property damage, but other risks, including business interruption and other non-property losses, may also be covered when arising from a covered peril. The most significant perils covered by policies in this portfolio include windstorm, tornado and earthquake, but other perils such as freezes, riots, floods, industrial explosions, fires, hail and a number of other loss events are also included. This business is written on a proportional and excess of loss basis.
The agriculture line of business provides protection for risks associated with the production of food and fiber on a global basis for primary insurance companies writing multi-peril crop insurance, crop hail, and named peril covers, as well as custom risk transfer mechanisms for agricultural dependent industries with exposures to crop yield and/or price deviations. This business is written on a proportional and aggregate stop loss reinsurance basis.
The engineering line of business provides protection for all types of construction risks and risks associated with erection, testing and commissioning of machinery and plants during the construction stage. This line of business also includes coverage for losses arising from operational failures of machinery, plant and equipment, and electronic equipment as well as business interruption. The Company exited this line of business in 2020.
The marine and aviation line of business includes specialty marine classes such as cargo, hull, pleasure craft, marine liability, inland marine and offshore energy. The principal perils covered by policies in this portfolio include physical loss, damage and/or liability arising from natural perils of the seas or land, man-made events including fire and explosion, stranding/sinking/salvage, pollution, shipowners and maritime employers liability. This business is written on a non-proportional and proportional basis. Aviation provides cover for airline, aerospace and general aviation exposures. This business is written on a proportional and non-proportional basis.
The accident and health line of business includes personal accident, specialty health, accidental death, travel, life and disability reinsurance products which are offered on a proportional and catastrophic or per life excess of loss basis.
The discontinued lines - Novae includes the international facultative property line of business that Novae exited or placed into run-off in the fourth quarter of 2016.
In general, reporting and payment patterns are relatively short-tailed although they can be volatile due to the incidence of catastrophe events.
Reinsurance property and other
Incurred claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsuranceAt December 31, 2021
For the years ended December 31,Total of incurred-but-not-reported liabilities plus expected development on reported claims
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$555,785 $523,613 $508,032 $477,396 $461,542 $456,536 $457,952 $454,701 $454,280 $451,567 $81 
2013580,230 562,186 531,304 510,944 504,945 504,433 501,123 500,490 497,825 585 
2014542,903 525,809 499,636 487,065 485,213 484,443 481,582 481,788 3,587 
2015478,050 465,733 460,576 455,252 451,295 456,549 453,142 1,568 
2016618,765 637,746 624,507 620,858 622,706 623,977 8,053 
20171,099,195 1,080,897 1,103,419 1,110,521 1,105,803 40,302 
2018884,369 1,010,076 1,014,311 1,019,138 44,435 
2019951,665 949,822 924,338 78,420 
2020859,634 893,869 163,285 
2021783,134 425,137 
Total$7,234,581 
Reinsurance property and other
Cumulative paid claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
For the years ended December 31,
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$122,945 $294,809 $367,575 $390,051 $404,621 $414,306 $416,360 $428,889 $430,468 $434,420 
2013107,774 325,596 442,216 472,619 482,360 483,785 484,429 484,128 487,971 
2014102,421 353,313 435,322 452,832 458,981 463,976 461,202 468,080 
201571,550 266,150 369,339 401,731 414,291 420,783 436,720 
2016128,812 378,387 522,648 565,778 584,602 592,193 
2017252,454 723,271 866,481 938,025 965,116 
2018196,679 646,904 793,481 859,649 
2019162,093 590,010 708,467 
2020209,072 483,680 
2021165,582 
Total5,601,878 
All outstanding liabilities before 2012, net of reinsurance20,247 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance$1,652,950 
Reinsurance property and other
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance (unaudited)
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10
21.1%42.3%17.8%6.0%2.5%1.2%0.9%1.4%0.6%0.9%
Reinsurance Credit and Surety
This reserve class includes the credit and surety line of business which provides reinsurance of trade credit insurance products and includes proportional and excess of loss structures. The underlying insurance indemnifies sellers of goods and services in the event of a payment default by the buyer of those goods and services. Surety reinsurance provides protection for losses arising from a broad array of surety bonds issued by insurers to satisfy regulatory demands or contract obligations in a variety of jurisdictions around the world. The Company also provides mortgage reinsurance to mortgage guaranty insurers and U.S. government sponsored entities for losses related to credit risk transfer into the private sector.
Initial and most recent underwriting year loss projections are generally based on the ELR Method, with consideration given to qualitative factors. Given that there is a quicker and more stable reporting pattern for trade credit and mortgage business, the Company generally commences the transition to experience-based methods sooner for these lines of business than for surety business.
Reinsurance credit and surety
Incurred claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsuranceAt December 31, 2021
For the years ended December 31,Total of incurred-but-not-reported liabilities plus expected development on reported claims
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$158,822 $148,841 $151,401 $148,622 $140,246 $132,213 $128,662 $125,625 $123,383 $122,058 $1,642 
2013165,106 153,538 144,733 140,863 136,675 125,376 125,497 128,319 127,065 2,445 
2014137,007 136,403 143,576 139,862 128,434 127,133 123,430 122,149 990 
2015160,874 166,772 161,575 157,491 138,575 139,565 140,788 3,998 
2016142,299 141,963 149,807 124,115 116,440 114,123 2,592 
2017139,346 133,506 127,691 118,941 116,204 6,021 
2018112,256 121,246 115,905 112,859 13,156 
201975,066 69,366 69,399 10,705 
202077,354 84,115 40,625 
202152,278 36,571 
Total$1,061,038 
Reinsurance credit and surety
Cumulative paid claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
For the years ended December 31,
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$49,736 $85,902 $99,969 $105,808 $109,335 $111,111 $112,430 $114,392 $114,809 $113,870 
201332,474 77,279 92,165 98,755 106,422 108,318 113,284 115,494 113,741 
201435,632 61,490 86,580 95,711 103,309 107,724 108,232 108,039 
201532,944 82,167 100,347 117,426 119,333 123,042 123,907 
201642,110 73,643 92,792 102,465 103,591 102,153 
201737,387 74,473 91,162 102,901 101,047 
201839,079 69,040 73,748 85,470 
201919,382 31,841 46,028 
202025,386 34,330 
20214,477 
Total833,062 
All outstanding liabilities before 2012, net of reinsurance21,326 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance$249,302 
Reinsurance credit and surety
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance (unaudited)
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10
28.9%26.2%14.1%8.4%2.7%1.6%1.5%1.0%(0.6%)(0.8%)
Reinsurance Professional Lines
This reserve class includes the professional line of business which provides protection for directors' and officers' liability, employment practices liability, medical malpractice, professional indemnity, environmental liability, cyber, and miscellaneous errors and omissions insurance risks. The underlying business is predominantly written on a claims-made basis. This business is written on a proportional and excess of loss basis. Typically, this reserve class is anticipated to exhibit medium to long-tail claim reporting and payment patterns.
With respect to key actuarial assumptions, the Company relies on its loss experience when establishing expected loss ratios and selecting loss development patterns. Loss reporting patterns for professional lines business tend to be volatile, causing instability in actuarial indications based on incurred loss data until an underwriting year matures. Consequently, initial reserves for losses and loss expenses for an underwriting year are generally based on the ELR Method and the consideration of relevant qualitative factors. As underwriting years mature, the Company increasingly gives more weight to methods that reflect its experience until its selections are based almost exclusively on experience-based methods. The Company evaluates the appropriateness of the transition to experience-based methods at the reserve class level, commencing this transition when it believes that its incurred loss development is sufficient to produce meaningful actuarial indications. The rate at which the Company transitions fully to sole reliance on experience-based methods can vary by reserve class and by year, depending on its assessment of the stability and relevance of such indications.
Reinsurance professional lines
Incurred claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsuranceAt December 31, 2021
For the years ended December 31,Total of incurred-but-not-reported liabilities plus expected development on reported claims
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$209,815 $216,364 $221,821 $224,214 $222,937 $212,941 $214,341 $207,151 $203,653 $205,581 $8,110 
2013209,516 214,662 215,862 214,075 213,590 206,226 182,005 169,783 165,978 8,416 
2014219,544 219,610 219,552 219,509 233,896 230,376 229,236 227,369 5,971 
2015212,183 212,226 214,606 225,365 232,164 229,418 236,208 19,277 
2016195,328 196,480 200,309 228,398 256,207 256,242 32,832 
2017155,335 156,019 162,447 179,072 189,356 35,316 
2018146,729 149,373 156,429 167,128 47,916 
2019139,177 139,131 143,214 68,827 
2020141,974 143,135 105,608 
2021149,925 131,625 
Total$1,884,136 
Reinsurance professional lines
Cumulative paid claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
For the years ended December 31,
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$778 $10,404 $29,657 $53,696 $86,064 $107,351 $132,030 $146,093 $155,739 $165,580 
20131,066 12,089 30,544 65,027 81,721 105,054 123,498 128,867 133,276 
20142,019 13,079 48,891 74,640 109,356 147,361 159,081 178,781 
20153,134 13,506 41,565 79,285 112,030 132,153 152,907 
20161,771 20,566 52,689 95,450 125,448 154,200 
20172,814 14,961 39,960 62,975 89,223 
2018271 2,616 31,352 57,170 
2019371 13,696 33,902 
20203,825 14,109 
20214,337 
Total983,485 
All outstanding liabilities before 2012, net of reinsurance68,013 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance$968,664 
Reinsurance professional lines
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance (unaudited)
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10
1.2%5.8%13.2%14.9%13.4%12.2%9.3%6.2%3.7%4.8%
Reinsurance Motor
This reserve class includes the motor line of business which provides protection to insurers for motor liability and motor property damage losses arising from any one occurrence. A loss occurrence can involve one or many claimants where the ceding insurer aggregates the claims from the occurrence. This reserve class also includes discontinued lines - Novae specifically the motor reinsurance line of business that Novae exited or placed into run-off in the first quarter of 2017. The Company offers traditional proportional and non-proportional reinsurance as well as structured solutions predominantly relating to European exposures.
The business written on a proportional basis has expanded significantly since 2010 and now represents the majority of the premium in this line of business. Most of the premium relates to a relatively small number of large United Kingdom ("U.K.") quota share reinsurance treaty contracts. The motor proportional business generally has a significantly shorter reported and payment pattern, relative to the motor non-proportional business.
The motor non-proportional business consists of standard excess of loss contracts written for cedants in several European countries with most of the premium related to two major markets, U.K. and France. Since 2009/2010, an increasing number of large bodily injury settlements in the U.K. market were settled using indexed annuities (Periodical Payment Orders "PPOs"). This led to a materially longer development tail on the older accident years for the U.K. non-proportional motor book. This also resulted in the inclusion of capitalization clauses on a number of U.K. motor treaties which allow reinsurers to settle claims arising under PPOs with a lump sum payment, to help mitigate the lengthening of the development tail on more recent accident years.
In 2017, the U.K. Ministry of Justice announced a decrease in the discount rate to be used to calculate lump sum awards in U.K. bodily injury cases, known as the Ogden Rate. Effective March 20, 2017, the Ogden rate changed from plus 2.5% to minus 0.75%. This resulted in a trend toward a lower number of claims settlements using PPOs and an increase in projected ultimate losses, particularly related to recent accident years.
Effective August 5, 2019, the Ogden rate changed from minus 0.75% to minus 0.25%. This resulted in a decrease in projected ultimate losses, particularly related to recent accident years.
Reinsurance motor
Incurred claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsuranceAt December 31, 2021
For the years ended December 31,Total of incurred-but-not-reported liabilities plus expected development on reported claims
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$182,633 $173,749 $162,106 $154,440 $149,527 $139,917 $136,989 $128,719 $129,001 $125,068 $9,380 
2013167,165 165,656 153,715 144,202 140,724 137,925 128,823 125,709 121,852 5,645 
2014187,744 190,577 185,889 183,176 178,705 175,289 171,880 171,540 4,531 
2015228,839 226,222 230,494 232,237 220,530 219,179 216,102 8,044 
2016252,697 273,424 275,311 264,703 256,311 253,527 7,507 
2017375,025 388,304 377,357 377,101 377,449 26,571 
2018368,844 372,104 384,410 380,446 42,305 
2019349,016 348,877 349,747 51,861 
2020225,728 229,582 71,686 
2021188,428 111,017 
Total$2,413,741 
Reinsurance motor
Cumulative paid claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
For the years ended December 31,
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$29,565 $54,803 $70,098 $80,217 $86,965 $91,200 $93,594 $94,827 $86,130 $97,432 
201334,395 55,392 70,078 80,600 86,524 92,307 95,445 86,532 99,978 
201443,918 76,923 97,479 106,072 116,724 126,849 122,682 143,954 
201558,581 96,745 118,018 135,958 152,558 154,002 177,260 
201661,686 108,670 133,970 152,721 166,826 191,945 
201773,425 139,560 171,933 208,687 232,316 
201885,158 148,084 215,555 227,804 
201990,829 186,943 206,602 
202044,268 100,288 
202142,173 
Total1,519,752 
All outstanding liabilities before 2012, net of reinsurance230,586 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance$1,124,575 
Reinsurance motor
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance (unaudited)
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10
23.8%19.9%11.0%7.2%6.0%4.9%3.2%2.0%2.0%9.0%
Reinsurance Liability
This reserve class includes the liability line of business which provides protection to insurers of admitted casualty business, excess and surplus lines casualty business and specialty casualty programs. The primary focus of the underlying business is general liability, workers' compensation, auto liability and excess casualty. This reserve class includes discontinued lines - Novae specifically the general liability reinsurance line of business that Novae exited or placed into run-off in the first quarter of 2017.
Claim reporting and payment patterns are typically long-tail in nature and, therefore, subject to increased uncertainty surrounding future loss development. In particular, claims can be subject to inflation from a number of sources including, but not limited to, economic and medical inflation, judicial inflation, mass tort and changing social trends.
Reinsurance liability
Incurred claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsuranceAt December 31, 2021
For the years ended December 31,Total of incurred-but-not-reported liabilities plus expected development on reported claims
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$166,836 $163,315 $167,715 $172,661 $173,827 $171,269 $164,524 $158,528 $160,665 $163,062 $11,222 
2013171,714 175,587 182,564 184,591 184,252 177,391 157,366 156,069 154,459 12,187 
2014199,798 203,282 205,011 200,935 199,736 197,580 188,082 183,909 19,068 
2015215,061 215,460 216,437 216,257 214,011 214,132 203,913 28,578 
2016240,882 246,322 251,424 254,716 264,749 268,888 50,187 
2017275,897 271,104 280,632 290,024 299,740 73,074 
2018265,519 270,527 275,980 288,528 90,968 
2019263,805 273,309 275,176 135,114 
2020284,232 285,083 189,324 
2021304,922 265,558 
Total$2,427,680 
Reinsurance liability
Cumulative paid claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
For the years ended December 31,
Accident year2012 unaudited2013 unaudited2014 unaudited2015 unaudited2016 unaudited2017 unaudited2018 unaudited2019 unaudited2020 unaudited2021
2012$3,541 $12,803 $28,392 $58,815 $78,291 $101,234 $115,695 $126,071 $134,357 $136,365 
20135,974 22,242 52,338 69,069 88,280 102,617 113,154 123,710 128,124 
20147,094 28,672 48,445 70,214 89,502 110,095 130,304 137,659 
20157,271 27,460 54,556 80,911 109,056 131,010 141,808 
201611,884 37,742 69,655 112,028 143,293 167,276 
201712,477 42,227 78,771 121,223 159,265 
201819,361 50,121 85,510 128,405 
201919,326 45,415 80,066 
202016,950 49,233 
202110,998 
Total1,139,199 
All outstanding liabilities before 2012, net of reinsurance114,137 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance$1,402,618 
Reinsurance liability
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance (unaudited)
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10
4.5%9.9%12.8%14.2%12.2%10.9%8.0%5.7%4.0%1.2%
Reconciliation of Loss Development Tables to Consolidated Balance Sheet
The following table reconciles the reserve for losses and loss expenses at December 31, 2021, included in the loss development tables to the reserve for losses and loss expenses reported in the consolidated balance sheet:
Reconciliation of the disclosure of incurred and paid claims development to the liability
for unpaid claims and claim adjustment expenses
At December 31, 2021
Net outstanding liabilitiesReinsurance recoverable on unpaid claimsGross outstanding liabilities
Insurance segment
Property and other$688,786 $417,814 $1,106,600 
Marine430,468 182,584 613,052 
Aviation88,203 58,067 146,270 
Credit and political risk58,982 (23,381)35,601 
Professional lines2,009,370 1,494,488 3,503,858 
Liability902,384 1,321,469 2,223,853 
Total insurance segment4,178,193 3,451,041 7,629,234 
Reinsurance segment
Property and other1,652,950 584,201 2,237,151 
Credit and surety249,302 66,965 316,267 
Professional lines968,664 251,341 1,220,005 
Motor1,124,575 229,195 1,353,770 
Liability1,402,618 434,868 1,837,486 
Total reinsurance segment5,398,109 1,566,570 6,964,679 
Total$9,576,302 $5,017,611 14,593,913 
Unallocated claims adjustment expenses159,676 
Foreign exchange and other(1)
48,373 
Ceded reserves related to retroactive transactions (148,868)
Total liability for unpaid claims and claims adjustment expense$14,653,094 
(1)    Non-U.S. dollar denominated loss data is converted to U.S dollar at the rates of exchange in effect at the balance sheet date for material underlying currencies. Fluctuations in currency exchange rates may cause material shifts in loss development. Reserves for losses and loss expenses disclosed in the consolidated balance sheets are also remeasured using rates of exchange in effect at the balance sheet date.