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RESERVE FOR LOSSES AND LOSS EXPENSES
9 Months Ended
Sep. 30, 2019
Insurance [Abstract]  
RESERVE FOR LOSSES AND LOSS EXPENSES
Reserve Roll-Forward

The following table presents a reconciliation of the Company's beginning and ending gross reserve for losses and loss expenses and net reserves for unpaid losses and loss expenses:
 
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2019
 
2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross reserve for losses and loss expenses, beginning of period
$
12,280,769

 
$
12,997,553

 
 
Less reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses, beginning of period
(3,501,669
)
 
(3,159,514
)
 
 
Net reserve for unpaid losses and loss expenses, beginning of period
8,779,100

 
9,838,039

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net incurred losses and loss expenses related to:
 
 
 
 
 
Current year
2,252,424

 
2,323,028

 
 
Prior years
(65,021
)
 
(160,083
)
 
 
 
2,187,403

 
2,162,945

 
 
Net paid losses and loss expenses related to:
 
 
 
 
 
Current year
(329,519
)
 
(381,158
)
 
 
Prior years
(1,791,233
)
 
(1,770,667
)
 
 
 
(2,120,752
)
 
(2,151,825
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Foreign exchange and other
(53,037
)
 
(1,040,999
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net reserve for unpaid losses and loss expenses, end of period
8,792,714

 
8,808,160

 
 
Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses, end of period
3,705,793

 
3,217,787

 
 
Gross reserve for losses and loss expenses, end of period
$
12,498,507

 
$
12,025,947

 
 
 
 
 
 
 


The Company writes business with loss experience generally characterized as low frequency and high severity in nature, which can result in volatility in its financial results. During the nine months ended September 30, 2019, the Company recognized net losses and loss expenses of $206 million (2018: $162 million) attributable to catastrophe and weather-related events.
 
On April 16, 2018, the Company entered into a quota share retrocessional agreement with Harrington Re, a related party, which was deemed to have met the established criteria for retroactive reinsurance accounting. The Company recognized reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses of $108 million related to this reinsurance agreement. This transaction was conducted at market rates consistent with negotiated arms-length contracts.

On January 1, 2018, AXIS Managing Agency Limited, the managing agent of Syndicate 2007 entered into an agreement for the RITC of the 2015 and prior years of account of Syndicate 2007. This agreement was accounted for as a novation reinsurance contract. At September 30, 2018, foreign exchange and other included a reduction in reserves for losses and loss expenses of $819 million related to this transaction.

Prior Year Reserve Development

The Company's net favorable prior year reserve development arises from changes to estimates of losses and loss expenses related to loss events that occurred in previous calendar years. The following table presents net prior year reserve development by segment:
 
  
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
  
2019
 
2018
 
2019
 
2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Insurance
$
14,609

 
$
13,478

 
$
42,849

 
$
60,547

 
 
Reinsurance
12,118

 
32,182

 
22,172

 
99,536

 
 
Total
$
26,727

 
$
45,660

 
$
65,021

 
$
160,083

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


The following tables map the Company's lines of business to reserve classes and the expected claim tails:
Insurance segment
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reserve class and tail
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and other
Marine
Aviation
Credit and political risk
Professional lines
Liability
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Short
Short
Short/Medium
Medium
Medium
Long
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reported lines of business
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property
X
 
 
 
 
 
Marine
 
X
 
 
 
 
Terrorism
X
 
 
 
 
 
Aviation
 
 
X
 
 
 
Credit and political risk
 
 
 
X
 
 
Professional lines
 
 
 
 
X
 
Liability
 
 
 
 
 
X
Accident and health
X
 
 
 
 
 
Discontinued lines - Novae
X
 
 
 
X
X

Reinsurance segment
 
 
 
 
 
Reserve class and tail
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and other
Credit and surety
Professional lines
Motor
Liability
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Short
Medium
Medium
Long
Long
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reported lines of business
 
 
 
 
 
Catastrophe
X
 
 
 
 
Property
X
 
 
 
 
Credit and surety
 
X
 
 
 
Professional lines
 
 
X
 
 
Motor
 
 
 
X
 
Liability
 
 
 
 
X
Engineering
X
 
 
 
 
Agriculture
X
 
 
 
 
Marine and other
X
 
 
 
 
Accident and health
X
 
 
 
 
Discontinued lines - Novae
X
 
 
X
X


Short-tail business

Short-tail business includes the underlying exposures in property and other, marine and aviation reserve classes in the insurance segment, and the property and other reserve class in the reinsurance segment.

For the three months ended September 30, 2019, these reserve classes contributed net favorable prior year reserve development of $2 million, including net favorable prior year reserve development of $11 million contributed by the insurance property and other reserve class and net favorable prior year reserve development of $3 million contributed by the insurance marine and aviation reserve classes, partially offset by of net adverse prior year reserve development of $12 million recognized by the reinsurance property and other reserve class.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2019, these reserve classes recognized net adverse prior year reserve development of $50 million, including net adverse prior year reserve development of $71 million recognized by the reinsurance property and other reserve class and net adverse prior year reserve development of $4 million recognized by the insurance property and other reserve class, partially offset by net favorable prior year reserve development of $24 million contributed by the insurance marine reserve class. The net adverse prior year reserve development of $71 million recognized by the reinsurance property and other reserve class reflected overall better than expected loss emergence related to the 2018 catastrophe events and reserve strengthening within our European proportional book of business.

For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2018, these reserve classes contributed net favorable prior year reserve development of $12 million and $92 million, respectively, reflecting overall better than expected loss emergence related to the 2017 catastrophe events.

Medium-tail business

Medium-tail business consists primarily of insurance and reinsurance professional lines reserve classes, insurance credit and political risk reserve class and reinsurance credit and surety reserve class.

For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2019, the insurance professional lines reserve class recorded net favorable prior year reserve development of $4 million (2018: $10 million) and $14 million (2018: $12 million), respectively, reflecting generally favorable experience as we continued to transition to more experienced based actuarial methods.

For the three months ended September 30, 2019, the reinsurance professional lines reserve class recorded net adverse prior year reserve development of $7 million primarily due to reserve strengthening within the Company's European book of business.
 
For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2018, the reinsurance professional lines reserve class recorded net favorable prior year reserve development of $10 million and $18 million, respectively, reflecting generally favorable experience on older accident years as the Company continued to transition to more experience based actuarial methods.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2019, the insurance credit and political risk reserve class recorded net favorable prior year reserve development of $10 million, respectively, reflecting the recognition of better than expected loss emergence.

For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2019, the reinsurance credit and surety reserve class recorded net favorable prior year reserve development of $6 million (2018: $6 million) and $33 million (2018: $21 million), respectively, reflecting the recognition of better than expected loss emergence.

Long-tail business

Long-tail business consists primarily of insurance and reinsurance liability reserve classes and reinsurance motor reserve class.

For the three months ended September 30, 2019, the insurance liability reserve class recorded net adverse prior year reserve development of $4 million (2018: $11 million). For the nine months ended September 30, 2018, the insurance liability reserve class recorded net adverse prior year reserve development of $18 million. This net adverse prior year reserve development was primarily due to reserve strengthening in the Company's U.S. excess casualty book of business.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2019, the reinsurance liability reserve class contributed net favorable prior year reserve development of $26 million due to increased weight given by management to experience based indications on older accident years.

For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2018, the reinsurance liability reserve class contributed net favorable prior year reserve development of $11 million and $19 million, respectively, largely associated with multi-line contracts due to overall better than expected loss emergence related to the 2017 catastrophe events. The net favorable prior year reserve development for the nine months ended September 30, 2018 was also due to increased weight given by management to experience based indications on older accident years.

For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2019, the reinsurance motor reserve class contributed net favorable prior year reserve development of $23 million (2018: $7 million) and $34 million (2018: $15 million), respectively, primarily attributable to non proportional treaty business.

At September 30, 2019, net reserves for losses and loss expenses included estimated amounts for numerous catastrophe events. The magnitude and/or complexity of losses arising from certain of these events, in particular Hurricane Dorian, Japanese Typhoons Faxai and Tapah which occurred in 2019 together with the California Wildfires, Hurricanes Michael and Florence, and Typhoons Jebi and Trami which occurred in 2018 as well as Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria and the California Wildfires which occurred in 2017, inherently increase the level of uncertainty and, therefore, the level of management judgment involved in arriving at the estimated net reserves for losses and loss expenses. As a result, actual losses for these events may ultimately differ materially from the Company's current estimates.