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RESERVE FOR LOSSES AND LOSS EXPENSES
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2016
Insurance Loss Reserves [Abstract]  
RESERVE FOR LOSSES AND LOSS EXPENSES
Reserving Methodology

The reserving process begins with the collection and analysis of paid and incurred claim data for each of our segments. The segmental data is disaggregated by reserving class and further disaggregated by either accident year (i.e. the year in which the loss event occurred) or by underwriting year (i.e. the year in which the contract generating the premium and losses incepted). We use underwriting year information to analyze our reinsurance business and subsequently allocate reserves to the respective accident years. Our reserving classes are selected to ensure that the underlying contracts have homogeneous loss development characteristics, while remaining large enough to make the estimation of trends credible. This data, in addition to industry benchmarks, serves as a key input to many of the methods employed by our actuaries. The relative weights assigned to our own historical loss data versus industry data vary according to the length of the development profile for the reserving class being evaluated. At present, we generally give more weight to our own experience (and, correspondingly, less weight to industry data) for reserving classes with short and medium claim tails. For some of our longer tail reserving classes we give material weight to industry data. (See ‘Net Incurred and Paid Claims Development Tables By Accident Year’ below for more detailed information by reserving class.)

The following tables reconcile reserving classes to the lines of business categories and the expected claim tails:
Insurance Segment
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reported Lines of Business
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reserving Classes
Tail
Property
Marine
Terrorism
Aviation
Credit and Political Risk
Professional Lines
Liability
Accident and Health
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and Other
Short
X
 
X
 
 
 
 
X
Marine
Short
 
X
 
 
 
 
 
 
Aviation
Short
 
 
 
X
 
 
 
 
Credit and Political Risk
Medium
 
 
 
 
X
 
 
 
Professional Lines
Medium
 
 
 
 
 
X
 
 
Liability
Long
 
 
 
 
 
 
X
 

Reinsurance Segment
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reported Lines of Business
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reserving Classes
Tail
Catastrophe
Property
Credit and Surety
Professional Lines
Motor
Liability
Engineering
Agriculture
Marine and Other
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and Other
Short
X
X
 
 
 
 
X
X
X
Credit and Surety
Medium
 
 
X
 
 
 
 
 
 
Professional Lines
Medium
 
 
 
X
 
 
 
 
 
Motor
Long
 
 
 
 
X
 
 
 
 
Liability
Long
 
 
 
 
 
X
 
 
 


Multiple actuarial methods are available to estimate ultimate losses. Each method has its own assumptions and its own advantages and disadvantages, with no single estimation method being better than the others in all situations and no one set of assumption variables being meaningful for all reserving classes. The relative strengths and weaknesses of the particular estimation methods when applied to a particular group of claims can also change over time.

The following is a brief description of the reserve estimation methods commonly employed by our actuaries:
 
Expected Loss Ratio Method (“ELR Method”): This method estimates ultimate losses for an accident year or underwriting year by applying an expected loss ratio to the earned or written premium for that year. Generally, expected loss ratios are based on one or more of (a) an analysis of historical loss experience to date, (b) pricing information and (c) industry data, adjusted as appropriate, to reflect changes in rates and terms and conditions. This method is insensitive to actual incurred losses for the accident year or underwriting year in question and is, therefore, often useful in the early stages of development when very few losses have been incurred. Conversely, the lack of sensitivity to incurred/paid losses for the accident year or underwriting year in question means that this method is usually inappropriate in later stages of an accident year or underwriting year’s development.

Loss Development Method (also referred to as the Chain Ladder Method or Link Ratio Method): This method assumes that the losses incurred/paid for each accident year or underwriting year at a particular development stage follow a relatively similar pattern. It assumes that on average, every accident year or underwriting year will display the same percentage of ultimate losses incurred/paid at the same point in time after the inception of that year. The percentages incurred/paid are established for each development stage (e.g. 12 months, 24 months, etc.) after examining historical averages from historical loss development data and/or external industry benchmark information. Ultimate losses are then estimated by multiplying the actual incurred/paid losses by the reciprocal of the established incurred/paid percentage. The strengths of this method are that it reacts to loss emergence/payments and that it makes full use of historical claim emergence/payment experience. However, this method has weaknesses when the underlying assumption of stable loss development/payment patterns is not valid. This could be the consequence of changes in business mix, claim inflation trends or claim reporting practices and/or the presence of large claims, amongst other things. Furthermore, this method tends to produce volatile estimates of ultimate losses where there is volatility in the underlying incurred/paid patterns. In particular, where the expected percentage of incurred/paid losses is low, small deviations between actual and expected claims can lead to very volatile estimates of ultimate losses. As a result, this method is often unsuitable at early development stages for an accident year or underwriting year.

Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method (“BF Method”): This method can be seen as a combination of the ELR and Loss Development Methods, under which the Loss Development Method is given progressively more weight as an accident year or underwriting year matures. The main advantage of the BF Method is that it provides a more stable estimate of ultimate losses than the Loss Development Method at earlier stages of development, while remaining more sensitive to emerging loss development than the ELR Method. In addition, the BF Method allows for the incorporation of external market information through the use of expected loss ratios, whereas the Loss Development Method does not incorporate such information.

As part of our loss reserve review process, our actuaries employ the estimation method(s) that they believe will produce the most reliable estimate of ultimate losses, at that particular evaluation date, for each reserving class and accident year or underwriting year combination. Often, this is a blend (i.e. weighted average) of the results of two or more appropriate actuarial methods. These ultimate loss estimates are generally utilized to evaluate the adequacy of our ultimate loss estimates for previous accident or underwriting years, as established in the prior reporting period. For the initial estimate of the current accident or underwriting year, the available claim data is typically insufficient to produce a reliable estimate of ultimate losses. As a result, our initial estimate for an accident or underwriting year is generally based on the ELR Method for longer tailed lines and a BF Method for shorter tailed lines. The initial ELR for each reserving class is established collaboratively by our actuaries, underwriters and management at the start of the year as part of the planning process, taking into consideration prior accident years’ or underwriting years' experience and industry benchmarks, adjusted after considering factors such as exposure trends, rate differences, changes in contract terms and conditions, business mix changes and other known differences between the current year and prior accident or underwriting years. The initial expected loss ratios for a given accident or underwriting year may be modified over time if the underlying assumptions, such as loss development or premium rate changes, differ from the original assumptions.
The use of the above actuarial methods requires us to make certain explicit assumptions, the most significant of which are: (1) expected loss ratios and (2) loss development patterns.
In our earlier years, we placed significant reliance on industry benchmarks in establishing our expected loss ratios and loss development patterns. Over time, we have placed more reliance on our historical loss experience in establishing these ratios and patterns where we believe the weight of our own actual experience has become sufficiently credible for consideration. In establishing expected loss ratios for our insurance segment, we give consideration to a number of other factors, including exposure trends, rate adequacy on new and renewal business, ceded reinsurance costs, changes in claims emergence and our underwriters’ view of terms and conditions in the market environment. For our reinsurance segment, expected loss ratios are based on a contract-by-contract review, which considers information provided by clients together with estimates provided by our underwriters and actuaries about the impact of changes in pricing, terms and conditions and coverage. We also have considered the market experience of some classes of business as compiled and analyzed by an independent actuarial firm, as appropriate. The weight given to our experience differs for each of our three claim tails.

Our short-tail business generally includes exposures for which losses are usually known and paid within a relatively short period of time after the underlying loss event has occurred. We expect that the majority of development for an accident year or underwriting year will be recognized in the subsequent one to three years. The key actuarial assumptions for our short-tail business in our early accident years were primarily developed with reference to industry benchmarks for both expected loss ratios and loss development patterns. As our own historical loss experience amassed, it gained credibility and became relevant for consideration in establishing these key actuarial assumptions. As a result, we gradually increased the weighting assigned to our own historical experience in selecting the expected loss ratios and loss development patterns utilized to establish our estimates of ultimate losses for an accident year. Due to the relatively short reporting and settlement patterns for our short-tail business, we generally place more weight upon experience-based methods and other qualitative considerations in establishing reserves for both our recent and more mature accident years.

Our medium-tail business generally has claim reporting and settlement periods longer than those of our short-tail reserving classes. For our earliest accident and underwriting years, our initial key actuarial expected loss ratio and loss development assumptions were established utilizing industry benchmarks. Due to the longer claim tail, the length of time required to develop our own credible loss history for use in the reserving process is greater for our medium-tail business than for our short-tail business. As a result, the number of years where we relied heavily on industry benchmarks to establish our key actuarial assumptions is greater for our medium-tail business.

The claim tails for our long-tail business, in contrast to our short and medium-tail business, is expected to be notably longer, as claims are often reported and ultimately paid or settled years, or even decades, after the related loss events occur. As a general rule, our estimates of accident year or underwriting year ultimate losses for our long-tail business are notably more uncertain than those for our short and medium-tail business. To date, our key actuarial assumptions for our long-tail business have been derived extensively from industry benchmarks supplemented with our own historical experience. Given our relatively short operating history in comparison to the development tail for this business, we do not believe that our own historical loss development for our long-tail business has amassed an appropriate volume to serve as a fully credible input into the key actuarial assumptions previously outlined. While we consider industry benchmarks that we believe reflect the nature and coverage of our business, our actual loss experience may differ from the benchmarks based on industry averages. Due to the length of the development tail for this business, our reserve estimates for most accident years and underwriting years are predominantly based on the BF or ELR method and the consideration of qualitative factors.
We cannot estimate losses from widespread catastrophic events, such as hurricanes and earthquakes, using the traditional actuarial methods described above. Rather, loss reserves for such events are estimated by management in collaboration with our actuaries, claim handlers and underwriters after a catastrophe occurs by completing an in-depth analysis of individual contracts which may potentially be impacted by the catastrophic event. This in-depth analysis may rely on several sources of information, including: (1) estimates of the size of insured industry losses from the catastrophic event and our corresponding market share; (2) a review of our portfolio of contracts performed to identify those contracts which may be exposed to the catastrophic event; (3) a review of modeled loss estimates based on information previously reported by customers and brokers, including exposure data obtained during the underwriting process; (4) discussions of the impact of the event with our customers and brokers and (5) catastrophe bulletins published by various independent statistical reporting agencies. We generally use a blend of these information sources to arrive at our aggregate estimate of the ultimate losses arising from the catastrophic event. In subsequent reporting periods, we review changes in paid and incurred losses in relation to each significant catastrophe and adjust our estimates of ultimate losses for each event if there are developments that are different from our previous expectations. Adjustments are recorded in the period in which they are identified.

Our reserving process involves the collaboration of our underwriting, claims, actuarial, legal, ceded reinsurance and finance departments, includes various segmental committee meetings and culminates with the approval of a single point best estimate by our Group Reserving Committee, which comprises senior management. In selecting this best estimate, management considers actuarial estimates and applies informed judgment regarding qualitative factors that may not be fully captured in these actuarial estimates. Such factors include, but are not limited to: the timing of the emergence of claims, volume and complexity of claims, social and judicial trends, potential severity of individual claims and the extent of internal historical loss data versus industry information. While these qualitative factors are considered in arriving at the point estimate, no specific provisions for qualitative factors are established.

Reserve for Losses and Loss Expenses

Our gross reserve for losses and loss expenses comprise the following:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
As of December 31,
2016
 
2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reserve for reported losses and loss expenses
$
3,358,514

 
$
3,253,080

 
 
Reserve for losses incurred but not reported
6,339,313

 
6,393,205

 
 
Reserve for losses and loss expenses
$
9,697,827

 
$
9,646,285

 
 
 
 
 
 
 


Reserve Roll-Forward

The following table presents a reconciliation of our beginning and ending gross reserve for losses and loss expenses and net reserve for unpaid losses and loss expenses for the years indicated:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Year ended December 31,
2016
 
2015
 
2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross reserve for losses and loss expenses, beginning of year
$
9,646,285

 
$
9,596,797

 
$
9,582,140

 
 
Less reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses, beginning of year
(2,031,309
)
 
(1,890,280
)
 
(1,900,112
)
 
 
Net reserve for unpaid losses and loss expenses, beginning of year
7,614,976

 
7,706,517

 
7,682,028

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net incurred losses and loss expenses related to:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current year
2,496,574

 
2,419,247

 
2,445,666

 
 
Prior years
(292,377
)
 
(243,048
)
 
(258,944
)
 
 
 
2,204,197

 
2,176,199

 
2,186,722

 
 
Net paid losses and loss expenses related to:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current year
(428,153
)
 
(343,063
)
 
(387,197
)
 
 
Prior years
(1,763,696
)
 
(1,709,659
)
 
(1,544,664
)
 
 
 
(2,191,849
)
 
(2,052,722
)
 
(1,931,861
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Foreign exchange and other
(205,606
)
 
(215,018
)
 
(230,372
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net reserve for unpaid losses and loss expenses, end of year
7,421,718

 
7,614,976

 
7,706,517

 
 
Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses, end of year
2,276,109

 
2,031,309

 
1,890,280

 
 
Gross reserve for losses and loss expenses, end of year
$
9,697,827

 
$
9,646,285

 
$
9,596,797

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
We write business with loss experience generally characterized as low frequency and high severity in nature, which can result in volatility in our financial results. During 2016, 2015 and 2014, respectively, we recognized aggregate net losses and loss expenses, net of reinstatement premiums of $204 million, $100 million and $93 million in relation to catastrophe and weather-related events.

During April 2016, the Company entered into a quota share and adverse development cover reinsurance agreement, a retroactive contract which was deemed to have met the established criteria for retroactive reinsurance accounting. Foreign exchange and other includes reinsurance recoverables of $150 million related to this reinsurance agreement.

Prior Year Development

Prior year reserve development arises from changes to loss and loss expense estimates related to loss events that occurred in previous calendar years. Such development is summarized by segment in the following table:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Insurance
 
Reinsurance
 
Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Year ended December 31, 2016
$
55,905

 
$
236,472

 
$
292,377

 
 
Year ended December 31, 2015
23,447

 
219,601

 
243,048

 
 
Year ended December 31, 2014
63,735

 
195,209

 
258,944

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


The majority of the net favorable prior year reserve development in each period related to short-tail reserve classes. Net favorable prior year reserve development for motor, liability, professional lines, and credit and surety reinsurance reserve classes as well as insurance professional lines reserve classes also contributed in 2016.

Our short tail business includes the underlying exposures in our property and other, marine and aviation reserve classes within our insurance segment and the property and other reserve class within our reinsurance segment. Development from these classes contributed $148 million, $152 million and $207 million of the total net favorable prior year reserve development in 2016, 2015 and 2014, respectively, and primarily reflected the recognition of better than expected loss emergence.

Our medium-tail business consists primarily of professional insurance and reinsurance reserve classes, credit and political risk insurance reserve class, and credit and surety reinsurance reserve class. Our reinsurance professional reserve class business recognized $30 million, $38 million and $33 million of net favorable prior year development in 2016, 2015 and 2014, respectively. The 2016, 2015 and 2014 favorable loss developments on these reserve classes continued to reflect the generally favorable experience on earlier accident years as we continued to transition to more experience based methods. As our loss experience has generally been better than expected, this resulted in the recognition of net favorable prior year reserve development. In 2016, the insurance professional lines recorded $14 million of net favorable prior year development driven by overall better than expected development. In 2015, the insurance professional lines recorded adverse prior year reserve development of $14 million which was primarily the result of strengthening our Australian book of business during the third quarter of 2015. Our credit and surety lines recorded net favorable prior year reserve development of $10 million and $27 million in 2016 and 2015, respectively. This net favorable prior year reserve development reflected the recognition of generally better than expected loss emergence. In 2015, net adverse development of $15 million was recognized in our in credit and political risk insurance lines relating primarily to an increase in loss estimates for one specific claim.

Our long-tail business consists primarily of liability and motor reserve classes. In 2016, 2015 and 2014, our motor and reinsurance liability reserve classes contributed net favorable prior year reserve development of $99 million, $82 million and $40 million, respectively. The net favorable prior year reserve development for the motor reserve class related to favorable loss emergence trends on several classes of business spanning multiple accident years. The net favorable prior year reserve
development for our reinsurance liability reserve class primarily reflected the progressively increased weight given by
management to experience based indications on older accident years, which has generally been favorable. This favorable development was partially offset by adverse development in our insurance liability reserve class of $8 million, $27 million and $23 million in 2016, 2015 and 2014, respectively, related primarily to an increase in loss estimates for specific individual
claim reserves as well as a higher frequency of large auto liability claims which impacted the adverse reserve development in
2015.

Our December 31, 2016 net reserve for losses and loss expenses includes estimated amounts for numerous catastrophe events. We caution that the magnitude and/or complexity of losses arising from certain of these events, in particular the Hurricane Matthew, Fort McMurray wildfires, Storm Sandy, the 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami, the 2010-11 New Zealand earthquakes and the Tianjin port explosion, inherently increases the level of uncertainty and, therefore, the level of management judgment involved in arriving at our estimated net reserves for losses and loss expenses. As a result, our actual losses for these events may ultimately differ materially from our current estimates.

Net Incurred and Paid Claims Development Tables By Accident Year

The following tables present net incurred and paid claims development by accident year, total incurred-but-not-reported liabilities plus expected development on reported claims, cumulative reported claims frequency and claims duration for each reserve class. The development triangles are presented on an accident year basis for both our Insurance and Reinsurance segments. We do not discount our unpaid losses and loss expense reserves.

Non-U.S. dollar denominated loss data is converted to U.S dollar at the rates of exchange in effect at the balance sheet date for material underlying currencies. Fluctuations in currency exchange rates may cause material shifts in loss development. Reserves for losses and loss expenses, disclosed on our consolidated balance sheets, are also revalued using the exchange rate at the balance sheet date.

There are many considerations in establishing loss reserves and an attempt to evaluate our loss reserves using solely the data presented in these tables could be misleading. We caution against mechanical application of standard actuarial methodologies to project ultimate losses using data presented in this disclosure.

Insurance Segment

The reporting of cumulative claims frequency for the reserve classes within our Insurance segment has been measured by counting the number of unique claim references including claim references assigned to nil and nominal case reserves. Claim references are grouped by claimant by loss event for each class of business. For certain insurance facilities and business produced by managing general agents where underlying data is reported to the Company in an aggregated format, the information necessary to provide cumulative claims frequency is not available therefore reporting of claims frequency is deemed to be impracticable.

Insurance Property and Other

This reserve class includes our property, terrorism and accident and health lines of business. Our property line of business provides physical loss or damage, business interruption and machinery breakdown coverage for virtually all types of property, including commercial buildings, residential premises, construction projects and onshore energy installations. This line of business consists of both primary and excess risks, some of which are catastrophe-exposed. Our terrorism line of business provides coverage for physical damage and business interruption of an insured following an act of terrorism. Our accident and health line of business includes accidental death, travel insurance and specialty health products for employer and affinity groups, as well as accident and health reinsurance for catastrophic or per life events on a quota share and/or excess of loss basis, with aggregate and/or per person deductibles. The accident and health line of business has contributed an increasing portion of the premium earned within this reserve class from 2010 forward with a large increase in reported claims observed from 2012. In general, paid and reporting patterns are relatively short-tailed although they can be volatile due to the incidence of catastrophe events.

Insurance Property and Other
 
Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
At December 31, 2016
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Total of Incurred-But-Not-Reported Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims
Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
209,411

$
162,796

$
160,343

$
151,107

$
149,236

$
149,580

$
148,350

$
147,875

$
147,552

$
147,178

$
449

834
2008
 
318,702

273,666

265,330

255,880

240,324

238,882

234,488

232,738

231,713

2,017

1,573
2009
 
 
120,169

101,823

92,505

85,202

83,139

80,983

81,204

80,880

815

1,483
2010
 
 
 
182,337

155,368

147,867

122,700

117,130

116,193

115,888

469

2,309
2011
 
 
 
 
386,326

364,736

340,974

317,110

316,756

315,517

2,583

3,736
2012
 
 
 
 
 
463,117

470,059

446,790

426,457

422,394

9,381

27,679
2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
421,113

414,793

387,086

381,573

10,120

51,231
2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
471,402

467,335

442,392

19,696

60,120
2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
378,216

375,867

38,959

43,312
2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
519,834

189,742

51,460
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
$
3,033,236

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Insurance Property and Other
 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
54,533

$
105,253

$
126,050

$
134,379

$
137,481

$
139,931

$
146,404

$
146,717

$
146,807

$
146,563

2008
 
83,640

164,425

186,147

197,852

224,874

227,438

229,498

228,989

228,945

2009
 
 
34,370

63,009

71,529

75,366

76,212

77,228

79,435

79,717

2010
 
 
 
48,970

87,621

96,449

107,257

111,450

111,543

111,349

2011
 
 
 
 
88,982

221,701

282,382

304,349

305,184

305,007

2012
 
 
 
 
 
107,441

278,331

341,818

364,966

372,567

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
128,519

302,372

345,866

359,867

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
173,615

345,785

398,150

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
124,166

280,577

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
173,233

Total
 
2,455,975

 
 
All outstanding liabilities before 2007, net of reinsurance
 
5,376

 
 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
 
$
582,637

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


Insurance Property and Other
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
35.1%
38.5%
12.4%
5.9%
3.4%
0.8%
2.0%
0.1%
0.1%
(0.2)%


Insurance Marine

This reserve class comprises our marine line of business and provides coverage for traditional marine classes, including offshore energy, cargo, liability, recreational marine, fine art, specie as well as hull and war. Offshore energy coverage includes physical damage, business interruption, operators extra expense and liability coverage for all aspects of offshore upstream energy, from exploration and construction through the operation and distribution phases. The complex nature of claims arising under our marine policies tends to result in payment and reporting patterns that are longer than those of our property and other class. Exposure to natural perils such as windstorm and earthquake can result in volatility.

Insurance Marine
 
Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
At December 31, 2016
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Total of Incurred-But-Not-Reported Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims
Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
96,533

$
95,994

$
106,228

$
100,962

$
97,949

$
96,304

$
94,612

$
92,405

$
92,077

$
92,063

$
257

684
2008
 
107,697

108,208

103,287

102,201

95,006

88,612

84,848

84,483

84,221

324

516
2009
 
 
82,075

75,532

71,049

65,787

58,383

56,208

54,774

53,652

531

475
2010
 
 
 
67,916

69,312

65,198

52,161

50,248

47,397

45,934

(1,368
)
472
2011
 
 
 
 
90,608

78,293

72,137

65,383

65,363

65,572

2,449

602
2012
 
 
 
 
 
89,663

82,344

68,315

70,404

71,370

9,821

697
2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
79,011

99,885

94,917

95,954

9,907

727
2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
59,880

44,221

47,870

8,864

794
2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
158,240

138,915

23,853

850
2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
86,115

41,293

804
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
$
781,666

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Insurance Marine
 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
14,828

$
35,176

$
57,907

$
76,551

$
82,021

$
85,219

$
85,211

$
86,792

$
90,115

$
90,267

2008
 
22,745

54,266

70,590

78,641

79,737

83,465

83,546

83,692

83,772

2009
 
 
18,938

31,745

40,968

44,535

46,490

47,082

49,588

49,845

2010
 
 
 
17,387

27,822

32,327

41,158

43,962

44,730

45,634

2011
 
 
 
 
26,431

44,004

54,618

57,677

59,481

60,181

2012
 
 
 
 
 
10,669

38,301

44,463

49,100

49,891

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
18,309

43,193

53,633

61,737

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6,359

14,877

26,111

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
21,584

54,575

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
12,459

Total
 
534,472

 
 
All outstanding liabilities before 2007, net of reinsurance
 
6,114

 
 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
 
$
253,308

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


Insurance Marine
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
23.4%
26.6%
16.3%
10.8%
3.5%
2.4%
1.7%
0.8%
1.9%
0.2%


Insurance Aviation

This reserve class comprises our aviation line of business and provides hull and liability and specific war coverage primarily for passenger airlines but also for cargo operations, general aviation operations, airports, aviation authorities, security firms and product manufacturers. The claims reporting pattern varies by coverage. Losses arising from war/terrorism and damage to hulls of aircraft are generally reported quickly. This is to be contrasted with liability claims which involve passengers and third parties and generally exhibit longer reporting and paid patterns. To date, the claims we have been advised of have predominantly related to damage to hulls, hence our payment and reporting patterns have typically exhibited a relatively short tail.

Insurance Aviation
 
Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
At December 31, 2016
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Total of Incurred-But-Not-Reported Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims
Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
29,801

$
25,466

$
22,682

$
17,043

$
16,756

$
16,352

$
14,427

$
12,958

$
12,853

$
12,422

$
53

270
2008
 
14,480

12,009

8,504

8,341

8,243

7,095

5,925

5,840

5,985

91

187
2009
 
 
17,408

14,490

18,680

18,007

16,835

16,535

15,351

14,519

176

317
2010
 
 
 
12,629

11,383

11,095

9,419

8,444

8,370

8,418

253

516
2011
 
 
 
 
17,721

15,377

12,763

9,536

8,404

7,257

434

730
2012
 
 
 
 
 
12,772

10,642

10,764

8,678

7,728

499

866
2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
15,647

16,313

15,179

15,223

1,010

1,005
2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
20,429

23,016

24,322

2,969

1,255
2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
29,748

28,453

4,999

1,751
2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
29,135

9,919

1,143
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
$
153,462

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Insurance Aviation
 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
2,400

$
6,692

$
9,219

$
10,498

$
11,100

$
11,781

$
12,129

$
12,126

$
12,148

$
12,182

2008
 
488

2,057

3,074

3,655

4,205

4,475

4,651

5,258

5,514

2009
 
 
2,022

3,516

6,957

12,697

13,819

14,183

14,120

13,617

2010
 
 
 
745

3,819

5,995

6,567

7,230

7,345

7,788

2011
 
 
 
 
638

2,813

4,499

5,015

5,547

5,796

2012
 
 
 
 
 
951

2,848

4,133

5,927

6,793

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
4,398

7,317

9,731

11,427

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3,985

8,011

11,672

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
8,077

16,137

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10,396

Total
 
101,322

 
 
All outstanding liabilities before 2007, net of reinsurance
 
2,410

 
 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
 
$
54,550

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


Insurance Aviation
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
18.1%
25.1%
19.7%
15.4%
8.0%
3.5%
2.7%
2.2%
2.3%
0.3%


Insurance Credit and Political Risk

This reserve class comprises our credit and political risk line of business and provides credit and political risk insurance products for banks and corporations. Coverage is provided for a range of risks including sovereign default, credit default, political violence, currency inconvertibility and non-transfer, expropriation, aircraft non-repossession and contract frustration due to political events. The credit insurance coverage is primarily for lenders seeking to mitigate the risk of non-payment from their borrowers. For the credit insurance contracts, it is necessary for the buyer of the insurance (most often a bank) to hold an insured asset (most often an underlying loan) in order to claim compensation under the insurance contract. Claims for this business tend to be characterized by their severity risk, as opposed to their frequency risk. Therefore, claim payment and reporting patterns are anticipated to be volatile. Under the notification provisions of our credit insurance, we anticipate being advised of an insured event within a relatively short time period. As a result, we generally estimate ultimate losses based on a contract-by-contract analysis which considers the contracts’ terms, the facts and circumstances of underlying loss events and qualitative input from claims managers.

Insurance Credit and Political Risk
 
Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
At December 31, 2016
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Total of Incurred-But-Not-Reported Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims
Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
50,812

$
44,972

$
16,695

$
5,253

$
898

$
898

$
3,609

$
3,642

$
3,667

$
2,741

$
200

2
2008
 
52,993

63,552

48,715

45,554

45,551

45,551

45,600

45,200

44,410


9
2009
 
 
248,082

305,277

326,017

335,525

335,398

335,258

335,278

339,557

1,740

24
2010
 
 
 
62,415

63,179

63,259

65,595

64,975

65,009

72,099

6,900

6
2011
 
 
 
 
58,154

48,665

47,706

48,361

48,333

45,036

17,400

4
2012
 
 
 
 
 
32,602

15,672

12,435

12,447

10,319

10,282

4
2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
26,439

25,684

9,759

9,880

1,600

1
2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
38,825

70,712

67,109

9,247

5
2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
30,329

30,368

7,059

3
2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
43,756

19,043

1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
$
665,275

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Insurance Credit and Political Risk
 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$

$
2,798

$
4,263

$
4,236

$
4,236

$
4,236

$
4,236

$
4,236

$
4,236

$
4,236

2008
 

69,217

45,625

45,638

45,379

45,379

44,410

44,410

44,410

2009
 
 
92,841

344,648

346,248

346,209

341,564

345,508

345,507

345,555

2010
 
 
 
50,000

85,418

90,729

106,766

101,784

101,946

102,152

2011
 
 
 
 
32,788

37,205

27,636

27,636

27,636

27,636

2012
 
 
 
 
 




36

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
745

2,235

3,726

5,216

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,924

39,951

61,108

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

23,309

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Total
 
613,658

 
 
All outstanding liabilities before 2007, net of reinsurance
 
20

 
 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
 
$
51,637

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


Insurance Credit and Political Risk
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
18.0%
60.0%
4.2%
5.2%
(1.4)%
0.3%
(0.5)%
—%
—%
—%


Insurance Professional Lines

This reserve class comprises our professional line of business and provides coverage for directors’ and officers’ liability, errors and omissions liability, employment practices liability, fiduciary liability, crime, professional indemnity, medical malpractice and other financial insurance related coverages for commercial enterprises, financial institutions and not-for-profit organizations. This business is predominantly written on a claims-made basis. Typically this reserve class is anticipated to exhibit medium to long tail claim reporting and settlement patterns.

With respect to our key actuarial assumptions, we are progressively giving more weight to our own experience when establishing our expected loss ratios and our selected loss development patterns, though we continue to consider industry benchmarks. Loss reporting patterns for professional lines business tend to be volatile, causing instability in actuarial indications based on incurred loss data until an accident year matures for a number of years. Consequently, our initial loss reserves for an accident year are generally based upon an ELR method and the consideration of relevant qualitative factors. As accident years mature, we increasingly give more weight to methods that reflect our actual experience until our selections are based almost exclusively on experience-based methods. We evaluate the appropriateness of the transition to experience-based methods at the reserving class level, commencing this transition when we believe that our incurred loss development is sufficient to produce meaningful actuarial indications. The rate at which we transition fully to sole reliance on experience-based methods can vary, depending on our assessment of the stability and relevance of such indications. For some professional lines in our insurance segment, we also rely upon the evaluation of the open claim inventory in addition to the commonly employed actuarial methods when establishing reserves.
Insurance Professional Lines
 
Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
At December 31, 2016
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Total of Incurred-But-Not-Reported Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims
Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
221,212

$
247,155

$
249,780

$
248,741

$
221,708

$
217,901

$
201,294

$
202,636

$
197,765

$
196,562

$
4,683

3,596
2008
 
240,809

279,486

280,329

299,422

295,953

309,268

328,628

326,623

324,197

23,024

4,582
2009
 
 
251,995

257,354

258,134

256,731

263,157

245,939

247,495

223,700

14,856

6,148
2010
 
 
 
251,985

257,527

255,337

218,436

195,831

173,104

195,869

44,799

5,975
2011
 
 
 
 
341,302

342,063

359,448

348,860

355,008

368,830

69,175

7,633
2012
 
 
 
 
 
353,693

399,610

401,976

408,870

397,517

108,180

8,805
2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
410,537

425,400

430,517

398,776

161,370

9,835
2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
435,447

443,665

451,917

244,910

10,017
2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
401,941

401,660

277,836

10,178
2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
348,076

312,698

8,935
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
$
3,307,104

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Insurance Professional Lines
 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
3,817

$
18,301

$
49,258

$
102,031

$
114,021

$
139,144

$
150,649

$
161,153

$
168,368

$
169,572

2008
 
5,154

22,565

68,355

125,594

167,923

189,952

214,542

249,050

267,314

2009
 
 
4,251

24,559

49,396

76,121

105,510

117,174

136,271

174,032

2010
 
 
 
8,179

30,353

57,282

78,663

96,431

109,403

119,939

2011
 
 
 
 
8,470

36,396

78,605

117,097

177,629

250,219

2012
 
 
 
 
 
8,895

44,804

106,822

194,031

240,671

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
18,305

75,901

136,542

182,468

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
25,351

73,828

132,966

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
20,745

68,050

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
15,707

Total
 
1,620,938

 
 
All outstanding liabilities before 2007, net of reinsurance
 
31,393

 
 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
 
$
1,717,559

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Insurance Professional Lines
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
3.4%
9.6%
13.7%
15.9%
11.6%
10.2%
6.9%
10.9%
4.7%
0.6%


Insurance Liability

This reserve class comprises our liability line of business and primarily targets primary and low/mid-level excess and umbrella commercial liability risks in the U.S. wholesale markets. Target industry sectors include construction, manufacturing, transportation and trucking and other services. The delay between the writing of a contract, notification and subsequent settlement of a claim in respect of that contract results in claim payment and reporting patterns that are typically long tail in nature. A consequence of the claim development tail is that this line of business is particularly exposed, amongst a number of uncertainties, to the potential for unanticipated levels of claim inflation relative to that assumed when the contracts were written. Factors influencing claim inflation on this class can include, but are not limited to, underlying economic and medical inflation, judicial inflation, mass tort and changing social trends.

Insurance Liability
 
Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
At December 31, 2016
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Total of Incurred-But-Not-Reported Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims
Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
100,380

$
88,102

$
95,435

$
98,625

$
98,851

$
99,483

$
102,010

$
101,299

$
97,526

$
97,078

$
12,107

3,766
2008
 
82,969

79,836

80,947

81,785

82,225

81,949

101,589

102,444

108,189

20,340

3,697
2009
 
 
61,469

64,017

67,410

67,869

76,431

83,281

101,179

98,384

11,813

2,735
2010
 
 
 
79,406

94,222

98,637

98,115

99,574

98,064

105,123

15,988

2,196
2011
 
 
 
 
72,586

75,329

83,118

87,059

85,243

83,730

20,189

1,776
2012
 
 
 
 
 
70,836

70,608

73,280

70,769

68,179

23,448

1,215
2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
92,146

94,171

94,247

87,491

36,011

1,494
2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
106,121

122,583

128,465

55,811

2,240
2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
127,318

125,844

83,145

2,970
2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
123,233

107,850

3,099
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
$
1,025,716

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Insurance Liability
 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
436

$
5,968

$
22,206

$
40,853

$
52,660

$
60,080

$
69,335

$
76,411

$
80,150

$
82,449

2008
 
1,906

8,796

18,507

27,861

37,408

47,447

51,776

55,314

61,618

2009
 
 
726

4,646

13,305

26,754

31,865

41,322

44,105

83,991

2010
 
 
 
1,030

15,968

30,791

53,584

61,033

66,118

71,792

2011
 
 
 
 
2,761

10,540

20,190

38,376

46,074

54,996

2012
 
 
 
 
 
1,630

5,513

15,410

30,144

37,138

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
2,355

23,275

33,314

42,044

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,410

18,620

49,816

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5,437

22,323

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6,307

Total
 
512,474

 
 
All outstanding liabilities before 2007, net of reinsurance
 
39,713

 
 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
 
$
552,955

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


Insurance Liability
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
2.3%
10.7%
13.8%
16.6%
8.8%
8.4%
5.4%
17.0%
4.9%
2.4%


Reinsurance Segment

The main difficulty in presenting accident year triangles for the Reinsurance segment relates to the allocation of loss information on proportional treaties to the appropriate accident years. As an example, many proportional treaty reinsurance contracts are submitted using quarterly bordereau reporting by underwriting year, with a supplemental listing of large losses. The large losses can be accurately allocated to the corresponding accident years. However, the remaining losses can generally only be allocated to accident years based on estimated premium earning and loss reporting patterns. To the extent management’s assumptions and allocation procedures differ from the actual loss development patterns, the actual loss development may differ materially from the loss development presented below.

The reporting of cumulative claims frequency for the reserve classes within our Reinsurance segment is deemed to be impracticable. The information necessary to provide cumulative claims frequency for these reserve classes is not available to the Company.

Reinsurance Property and Other

This reserve class comprises our property, catastrophe, engineering, agriculture and marine and other lines of business. Our catastrophe line of business provides protection for most catastrophic losses that are covered in the underlying insurance policies written by our cedants. The exposure in the underlying policies is principally property exposure but also covers other exposures including workers compensation, personal accident and life. The principal perils in this portfolio are hurricane and windstorm, earthquake, flood, tornado, hail and fire. In some instances, terrorism may be a covered peril or the only peril. We underwrite catastrophe reinsurance principally on an excess of loss basis. Our property line of business provides coverage for property damage and related losses resulting from natural and man-made perils contained in underlying personal and commercial policies. While our predominant exposure is to property damage, other risks, including business interruption and other non-property losses, may also be covered when arising from a covered peril. While our most significant exposures typically relate to losses from windstorms, tornadoes and earthquakes, we are also exposed to other perils such as freezes, riots, floods, industrial explosions, fires, hail and a number of other loss events. We assume business on both a proportional and excess of loss basis.
Our agriculture line of business provides coverage for risks associated with the production of food and fiber on a global basis for primary insurance companies writing multi-peril crop insurance, crop hail, and named peril covers, as well as custom risk transfer mechanisms for agricultural dependent industries with exposures to crop yield and/or price deviations. We provide both proportional and aggregate stop loss reinsurance. Our engineering line of business provides coverage for all types of construction risks and risks associated with erection, testing and commissioning of machinery and plants during the construction stage. This line of business also includes coverage for losses arising from operational failures of machinery, plant and equipment and electronic equipment as well as business interruption. Our marine and other line of business includes marine, aviation and personal accident reinsurance.

In general, paid and reporting patterns are relatively short-tailed and can be volatile due to the incidence of catastrophe events such as hurricanes and earthquakes.

Reinsurance Property and Other
 
Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
At December 31, 2016
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Total of Incurred-But-Not-Reported Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
394,054

$
321,110

$
279,571

$
265,204

$
249,436

$
238,779

$
231,597

$
224,023

$
220,937

$
220,469

$
379

2008
 
671,079

569,031

584,076

562,028

547,586

536,555

520,174

513,948

512,261

(296
)
2009
 
 
337,333

279,833

241,346

227,777

220,889

199,777

193,703

195,545

705

2010
 
 
 
599,084

584,912

553,798

567,341

569,697

563,532

555,647

7,034

2011
 
 
 
 
1,083,060

1,092,015

1,090,593

1,049,625

1,032,549

1,006,528

10,715

2012
 
 
 
 
 
484,438

450,563

440,303

409,836

393,775

10,707

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
466,295

441,492

411,440

392,459

10,724

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
437,470

455,607

442,330

53,805

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
380,660

359,185

69,223

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
440,384

224,911

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
$
4,518,583

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Reinsurance Property and Other
 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
58,955

$
159,438

$
189,166

$
203,754

$
211,499

$
215,294

$
219,809

$
217,756

$
215,894

$
217,366

2008
 
157,415

312,580

437,973

489,821

502,377

506,139

505,939

510,628

509,433

2009
 
 
55,694

126,587

156,617

174,250

184,513

183,729

186,448

188,103

2010
 
 
 
104,263

296,764

388,310

419,571

465,358

494,362

519,128

2011
 
 
 
 
246,222

557,409

759,930

859,089

888,222

961,477

2012
 
 
 
 
 
92,620

228,876

300,983

322,801

337,115

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
54,451

218,110

328,765

355,706

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
65,721

271,621

346,856

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
48,121

187,229

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
77,205

Total
 
3,699,618

 
 
All outstanding liabilities before 2007, net of reinsurance
 
4,498

 
 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
 
$
823,463

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


Reinsurance Property and Other
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
21.2%
37.7%
19.2%
7.7%
4.3%
2.9%
2.0%
0.3%
(0.5)%
0.7%


Reinsurance Credit and Surety

This reserve class is comprised of our credit and surety line of business and consists of reinsurance of trade credit insurance products and includes both proportional and excess of loss structures. The underlying insurance indemnifies sellers of goods and services in the event of a payment default by the buyer of those goods and services. The Company provides credit insurance coverage to mortgage guaranty insurers and government sponsored entities. Also included in this line of business is coverage for losses arising from a broad array of surety bonds issued by insurers to satisfy regulatory demands or contract obligations in a variety of jurisdictions around the world.

Our initial and most recent underwriting year loss projections are generally based on the ELR method, with consideration given to qualitative factors. Given that there is a quicker and more stable reporting pattern for trade credit business, we generally commence the transition to experience-based methods sooner than for the surety business.
Reinsurance Credit and Surety
 
Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
At December 31, 2016
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Total of Incurred-But-Not-Reported Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
48,646

$
53,197

$
44,789

$
40,395

$
39,015

$
39,584

$
45,853

$
53,938

$
52,838

$
53,775

$
915

2008
 
79,689

102,595

92,784

92,151

93,339

92,118

88,619

87,638

87,130

1,456

2009
 
 
137,963

117,004

100,943

100,177

99,872

94,541

91,346

90,893

2,968

2010
 
 
 
112,888

92,842

86,340

83,888

79,568

72,316

71,016

6,397

2011
 
 
 
 
117,902

101,752

99,640

106,196

104,414

96,269

9,658

2012
 
 
 
 
 
155,730

142,870

145,147

142,639

134,620

19,094

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
161,647

148,760

139,761

136,024

23,760

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
132,483

131,887

139,026

34,983

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
156,959

161,178

46,635

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
138,876

72,455

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
$
1,108,807

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Reinsurance Credit and Surety
 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
13,612

$
24,105

$
28,797

$
33,178

$
34,476

$
35,328

$
36,580

$
46,356

$
46,734

$
47,496

2008
 
20,345

63,686

61,530

75,801

77,425

79,414

81,152

81,790

82,026

2009
 
 
31,892

73,878

74,948

76,863

80,635

83,281

83,338

83,185

2010
 
 
 
25,558

44,156

54,023

54,849

56,304

57,263

58,579

2011
 
 
 
 
22,198

50,959

66,120

73,282

77,734

79,807

2012
 
 
 
 
 
48,576

82,707

95,544

101,328

104,802

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
32,113

74,740

88,904

95,282

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
35,261

59,406

83,536

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
32,757

79,523

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
41,768

Total
 
756,004

 
 
All outstanding liabilities before 2007, net of reinsurance
 
3,865

 
 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
 
$
356,668

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


Reinsurance Credit and Surety
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
27.8%
30.5%
9.3%
6.3%
2.9%
2.1%
1.6%
6.2%
0.5%
1.4%


Reinsurance Professional Lines

This reserve class is comprised of our professional line of business and covers directors' and officers' liability, employment practices liability, medical malpractice, professional indemnity, environmental liability and miscellaneous errors and omissions insurance risks. The underlying business is predominantly written on a claims-made basis. Business is written on both a proportional and excess of loss basis. Claim payment and reporting patterns on an accident year basis are typically medium to long tail in nature.
With respect to our key actuarial assumptions, we are progressively giving more weight to our own experience when establishing our expected loss ratios and our selected loss development patterns, though we continue to consider industry benchmarks. Loss reporting patterns for professional lines business tend to be volatile, causing instability in actuarial indications based on incurred loss data until an accident year matures for a number of years. Consequently, our initial loss reserves for an accident year or underwriting year are generally based upon an ELR method and the consideration of relevant qualitative factors. As accident and underwriting years mature, we increasingly give more weight to methods that reflect our actual experience until our selections are based almost exclusively on experience-based methods. We evaluate the appropriateness of the transition to experience-based methods at the reserving class level, commencing this transition when we believe that our incurred loss development is sufficient to produce meaningful actuarial indications. The rate at which we transition fully to sole reliance on experience-based methods can vary, depending on our assessment of the stability and relevance of such indications.
Reinsurance Professional Lines
 
Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
At December 31, 2016
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Total of Incurred-But-Not-Reported Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
195,045

$
204,971

$
204,594

$
196,696

$
176,792

$
151,628

$
137,392

$
118,321

$
114,714

$
111,256

$
8,173

2008
 
174,881

181,729

181,097

177,038

175,203

171,409

172,414

170,509

170,596

14,293

2009
 
 
210,606

210,413

215,065

217,656

208,234

207,939

192,974

189,290

21,035

2010
 
 
 
208,718

209,034

210,413

213,560

213,316

196,067

188,729

42,307

2011
 
 
 
 
200,400

200,776

201,989

210,770

208,126

207,237

75,492

2012
 
 
 
 
 
209,109

215,586

221,036

223,023

221,722

94,535

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
208,804

213,810

214,659

212,763

114,919

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
218,734

218,662

218,610

120,754

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
211,420

211,181

163,900

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
194,558

183,486

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
$
1,925,942

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Reinsurance Professional Lines
 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
56

$
4,133

$
21,286

$
34,567

$
54,438

$
60,188

$
70,636

$
73,941

$
82,406

$
86,573

2008
 
373

6,411

21,620

49,053

70,329

91,554

108,226

123,672

132,194

2009
 
 
914

8,588

32,286

62,988

83,537

108,140

127,697

137,842

2010
 
 
 
1,740

12,000

31,198

52,066

76,635

107,096

123,711

2011
 
 
 
 
1,510

11,812

30,216

57,119

84,672

102,813

2012
 
 
 
 
 
776

10,346

29,527

53,440

85,753

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,059

12,020

30,403

64,809

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2,019

13,049

48,714

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3,134

13,503

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,755

Total
 
797,667

 
 
All outstanding liabilities before 2007, net of reinsurance
 
26,189

 
 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
 
$
1,154,464

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


Reinsurance Professional Lines
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
0.7%
4.6%
11.2%
13.6%
13.7%
11.1%
9.6%
5.8%
6.3%
3.7%


Reinsurance Motor

This reserving class is comprised of our motor line of business and provides coverage to insurers for motor liability and property damage losses arising out of any one occurrence. A loss occurrence can involve one or many claimants where the ceding insurer aggregates the claims from the occurrence. We offer traditional proportional and non-proportional reinsurance as well as structured solutions predominantly relating to European exposures. The business written on a proportional basis has expanded significantly since 2010 and now represents the majority of the written premium on this class. Most of the premium relates to a relatively small number of large United Kingdom ("U.K.") and, to a lesser extent, Greek quota share treaties. The motor proportional class generally has significantly shorter paid and reported loss development patterns relative to the motor non-proportional class.

The motor non-proportional business consists of standard excess of loss contracts written for cedants in several European countries with the two major markets, U.K. and France, generally accounting for the majority of the premium volume. From 2009/2010 onwards increasing numbers of large bodily injury settlements in the U.K. market were settled using indexed annuities (Periodical Payment Orders "PPOs"). This led to a materially longer development tail on the older accident years for the U.K. non-proportional motor book. This also resulted in a move towards generally lower treaty attachment points and the inclusion of capitalization clauses on a number of U.K. motor treaties partly helping to mitigate the lengthening of the development tail on more recent accident years. Despite the trend toward a greater number of claims settlements using PPOs, we note that there has been a trend towards generally quicker and more adequate reporting of losses in recent years.


Reinsurance Motor
 
Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
At December 31, 2016
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Total of Incurred-But-Not-Reported Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
65,601

$
66,567

$
62,829

$
62,768

$
63,813

$
60,568

$
59,548

$
58,086

$
55,279

$
54,504

$
14,117

2008
 
64,513

69,234

68,617

70,961

68,486

67,783

63,627

58,250

54,678

18,178

2009
 
 
77,092

75,034

82,170

83,944

85,870

87,017

78,929

73,670

17,780

2010
 
 
 
92,168

97,598

97,823

96,811

91,248

86,409

77,560

27,778

2011
 
 
 
 
149,535

151,432

155,096

160,516

156,912

148,843

44,483

2012
 
 
 
 
 
170,379

159,822

149,420

142,454

137,841

37,418

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
155,880

150,277

139,138

130,299

30,902

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
175,848

173,568

168,846

33,650

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
215,342

207,409

49,375

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
238,258

100,635

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
$
1,291,908

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Reinsurance Motor
 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
1,663

$
3,881

$
4,150

$
6,127

$
9,939

$
11,616

$
13,710

$
18,527

$
20,433

$
21,596

2008
 
2,741

5,612

5,827

6,984

8,438

10,788

13,366

13,975

15,452

2009
 
 
2,533

6,343

7,346

8,761

12,037

17,973

20,167

24,535

2010
 
 
 
5,138

9,299

13,939

17,068

19,972

23,957

27,017

2011
 
 
 
 
23,397

45,270

58,841

68,802

74,955

80,593

2012
 
 
 
 
 
28,703

50,904

64,918

74,063

80,182

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
33,173

50,230

62,830

72,085

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
42,546

70,547

88,652

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
56,940

89,516

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
59,989

Total
 
559,617

 
 
All outstanding liabilities before 2007, net of reinsurance
 
78,865

 
 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
 
$
811,156

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


Reinsurance Motor
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
15.8%
10.7%
6.0%
4.6%
4.4%
4.9%
3.9%
5.3%
3.1%
2.1%


Reinsurance Liability

This reserve class is comprised of our liability line of business and provides coverage to insurers of standard casualty business, excess and surplus casualty business and specialty casualty programs. The primary focus of the underlying business is general liability, although workers' compensation and auto liability are also written. Claim payment and reporting patterns are typically long tail in nature and, therefore, also subject to increased uncertainty surrounding future loss development. In particular, claims can be subject to inflation from a number of sources including, but not limited to, economic and medical inflation, judicial inflation and changing social trends.

Reinsurance Liability
 
Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
At December 31, 2016
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Total of Incurred-But-Not-Reported Liabilities Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
160,455

$
157,947

$
158,773

$
157,966

$
157,886

$
157,822

$
144,241

$
114,939

$
97,515

$
92,712

$
11,940

2008
 
137,646

137,932

138,926

139,592

137,793

132,317

110,545

105,286

94,589

20,513

2009
 
 
169,886

171,868

179,239

176,853

184,378

203,553

191,701

177,852

34,578

2010
 
 
 
169,442

168,929

180,949

181,663

199,656

189,531

180,860

53,863

2011
 
 
 
 
170,182

170,606

172,708

190,043

196,805

193,749

45,166

2012
 
 
 
 
 
165,409

162,127

166,492

171,033

172,176

55,572

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
171,121

174,885

180,802

182,813

83,598

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
198,634

201,551

203,252

124,579

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
213,387

213,776

157,257

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
238,524

199,828

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
$
1,750,303

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Reinsurance Liability
 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the Years Ended December 31,
Accident Year
2007 Unaudited
2008 Unaudited
2009 Unaudited
2010 Unaudited
2011 Unaudited
2012 Unaudited
2013 Unaudited
2014 Unaudited
2015 Unaudited
2016
2007
$
2,556

$
10,663

$
22,833

$
32,641

$
42,081

$
54,374

$
59,966

$
65,026

$
66,791

$
70,221

2008
 
2,156

9,940

21,917

29,991

36,497

43,397

51,786

53,578

57,686

2009
 
 
1,703

17,100

44,429

56,586

73,197

103,871

123,051

127,354

2010
 
 
 
2,405

17,576

46,123

62,207

83,542

97,167

108,476

2011
 
 
 
 
5,190

21,274

39,983

69,886

92,221

112,066

2012
 
 
 
 
 
3,540

12,791

28,354

58,639

78,037

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
5,965

22,214

52,299

69,021

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7,086

28,645

48,363

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7,267

27,440

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
11,859

Total
 
710,523

 
 
All outstanding liabilities before 2007, net of reinsurance
 
28,494

 
 
Liabilities for claims and claim adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance
 
$
1,068,274

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


Reinsurance Liability
Average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
2.7%
8.5%
12.7%
11.0%
10.2%
11.1%
8.0%
3.3%
3.1%
3.7%



Reconciliation of Development Tables to Consolidated Balance Sheet

The following table reconciles the reserves for loss and loss expenses as of December 31, 2016 as reported in our Consolidated Balance Sheet to the reserves for loss and loss expenses included in the development tables:
Reconciliation of the Disclosure of Incurred and Paid Claims Development to the Liability for Unpaid Claims and Claim Adjustment Expenses
 
 
 
 
 
At December 31, 2016
 
 
Net outstanding liabilities
 
Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid claims
 
Gross outstanding liabilities
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Insurance Segment
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and Other
 
$
582,637

 
$
169,707

 
$
752,344

Marine
 
253,308

 
180,996

 
434,304

Aviation
 
54,550

 
6,384

 
60,934

Credit and Political Risk
 
51,637

 
154

 
51,791

Professional Lines
 
1,717,559

 
998,873

 
2,716,432

Liability
 
552,955

 
837,215

 
1,390,170

Total Insurance Segment
 
3,212,646

 
2,193,329

 
5,405,975

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reinsurance Segment
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and Other
 
823,463

 
55,637

 
879,100

Credit and Surety
 
356,668

 
1,916

 
358,584

Professional Lines
 
1,154,464

 
8,353

 
1,162,817

Motor
 
811,156

 

 
811,156

Liability
 
1,068,274

 
16,874

 
1,085,148

Total Reinsurance Segment
 
4,214,025

 
82,780

 
4,296,805

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
 
$
7,426,671

 
$
2,276,109

 
9,702,780

Unallocated claims adjustment expenses
 
 
 
 
 
144,375

Foreign exchange and other(1)
 
 
 
 
 
(59,988
)
(Ceded)/assumed reserves related to retroactive transactions
 
 
 
 
 
(89,340
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total liability for unpaid claims and claims adjustment expense
 
 
 
 
 
$
9,697,827

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(1)
Non-U.S. dollar denominated loss data is converted to U.S dollar at the rates of exchange in effect at the balance sheet date for material underlying currencies. Fluctuations in currency exchange rates cause material shifts in loss development. Reserves for losses and loss expenses, disclosed on our consolidated balance sheets, are also revalued using the exchange rate at the balance sheet date.