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Risks and Uncertainties
6 Months Ended
Apr. 30, 2017
Item 2 Risks and Uncertainties [Abstract]  
Risks and Uncertainties

2.   RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES

 

The Company has certain risks and uncertainties that it experiences during volatile market conditions. These volatilities can have a severe impact on operations.  The Company's revenues are derived from the sale and distribution of ethanol, distillers' grains, corn oil, and natural gas to customers primarily located in the United States. Corn for the production process is supplied to our plant primarily from local agricultural producers and from purchases on the open market.  Ethanol sales typically average 75 - 90% of total revenues and corn costs typically average 65 - 85% of cost of goods sold.

 

The Company's operating and financial performance is largely driven by the prices at which they sell ethanol and the net expense of corn. The price of ethanol is influenced by factors such as supply and demand, the weather, government policies and programs, and unleaded gasoline prices and the petroleum markets as a whole. Excess ethanol supply in the market, in particular, puts downward pressure on the price of ethanol. Our largest cost of production is corn.  The cost of corn is generally impacted by factors such as supply and demand, the weather, government policies and programs, and our risk management program used to protect against the price volatility of these commodities.

 

The supply and demand for ethanol are impacted by federal and state legislation and regulation, most significantly the Renewable Fuels Standard (“RFS”), and any changes in legislation or regulation could cause the demand for ethanol to decline or its supply to increase, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition, and the ability to operate at a profit.

   

The supply and demand for ethanol are impacted by federal and state legislation and regulation, most significantly the Renewable Fuels Standard (“RFS”), and any changes in legislation or regulation could cause the demand for ethanol to decline or its supply to increase, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition, and the ability to operate at a profit.

 

On November 23, 2016, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (the “EPA”) announced the final rule for 2017 Renewable Volume Obligation (“RVO”) requirements, which is set at 15.0 billion gallons for corn-based ethanol, which equates to the original requirements set by the RFS. However, in January 2017, the Trump administration imposed a government-wide freeze on new and pending regulations, which included the 2017 RVOs that were originally intended to go into effect on February 10, 2017. On March 20, 2017, following the termination of the Trump administration’s regulatory freeze, the EPA allowed the previously announced 2017 RVOs to go into effect. Additionally, opponents of ethanol such as large oil companies will likely continue their efforts to repeal or reduce the RFS through lawsuits or lobbying of and legislative efforts in Congress. Successful reduction or repeal of the blending requirements of the RFS and/or continued political uncertainty under the new administration regarding the RFS could result in a significant decrease in ethanol demand. If demand for ethanol decreases, it could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.

 

Ethanol has historically traded at a discount to gasoline. However, any declines in crude oil and unleaded gasoline prices could have a negative impact on the market price of ethanol which could cause ethanol to trade at a premium to gasoline. When ethanol trades at a premium to gasonline, a disincentive for discretionary blending of ethanol beyond the required RFS blend rate results. 

 

Management anticipates that ethanol prices will continue to change in relation to changes in corn and energy prices. If corn, crude oil and gasoline prices decrease, that could have a negative impact on ethanol pricing and demand, which could result in a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. Further, the ethanol industry is currently experiencing growth in production capacity, largely through plant optimization and expansions versus new construction. If ethanol supply increases at a greater pace compared to ethanol demand, it could result in oversupply and negatively affecting prices unless additional demand can be created.