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Allowance for expected credit losses (Tables)
 6 Months Ended
Jun. 30, 2025
Disclosure of allowance for expected credit losses [Abstract]  
Disclosure of impairment allowances The table below analyses total ECL allowance by portfolio, separately identifying the amounts that have been
modelled, those that have been individually assessed and those arising through the application of judgemental
adjustments.
At 30 June 2025
Modelled
ECL
£m
Individually
assessed
£m
Judgemental
adjustments
£m
Total
ECL
£m
UK mortgages
611
–
98
709
Credit cards
650
–
9
659
Other Retail
908
–
102
1,010
Commercial Banking
627
433
(51)
1,009
Other
15
–
–
15
Total
2,811
433
158
3,402
At 31 December 2024
UK mortgages
720
–
132
852
Credit cards
681
–
(7)
674
Other Retail
860
–
90
950
Commercial Banking
894
354
(259)
989
Other
16
–
–
16
Total
3,171
354
(44)
3,481
Disclosure of generation of multiple economic assumptions by quarter and by year
At 30 June 2025
2025
%
2026
%
2027
%
2028
%
2029
%
2025
to 2029
average
%
Upside
Gross domestic product growth
1.2
2.0
1.8
1.4
1.4
1.6
Unemployment rate
4.4
3.5
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.5
House price growth
3.6
6.5
7.9
6.2
4.8
5.8
Commercial real estate price growth
5.1
8.1
3.8
1.1
0.4
3.6
UK Bank Rate
4.21
4.50
4.84
5.05
5.21
4.76
CPI inflation
3.3
2.5
2.7
3.1
3.1
2.9
Base case
Gross domestic product growth
1.0
1.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.3
Unemployment rate
4.8
5.0
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.7
House price growth
2.6
3.0
2.3
2.5
2.8
2.6
Commercial real estate price growth
1.6
1.1
1.3
0.3
0.0
0.9
UK Bank Rate
4.13
3.56
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.64
CPI inflation
3.3
2.7
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.7
Downside
Gross domestic product growth
0.6
(1.2)
0.6
1.3
1.5
0.5
Unemployment rate
5.2
7.2
7.5
7.2
7.0
6.8
House price growth
1.6
(0.8)
(5.9)
(4.7)
(1.8)
(2.4)
Commercial real estate price growth
(1.6)
(6.8)
(1.6)
(2.3)
(2.7)
(3.0)
UK Bank Rate
4.02
1.90
0.99
0.68
0.46
1.61
CPI inflation
3.3
2.5
1.9
1.5
1.1
2.1
Severe downside
Gross domestic product growth
0.1
(3.0)
0.0
1.2
1.4
(0.1)
Unemployment rate
5.8
9.7
10.2
9.8
9.4
9.0
House price growth
0.8
(3.9)
(13.4)
(10.9)
(6.3)
(6.9)
Commercial real estate price growth
(6.5)
(16.0)
(7.4)
(6.7)
(5.7)
(8.6)
UK Bank Rate – modelled
3.88
0.68
0.11
0.03
0.01
0.94
UK Bank Rate – adjusted1
4.34
3.09
2.80
2.77
2.76
3.15
CPI inflation – modelled
3.3
2.5
1.4
0.5
(0.1)
1.5
CPI inflation – adjusted1
3.5
3.8
3.2
2.8
2.4
3.1
Probability-weighted
Gross domestic product growth
0.9
0.2
1.1
1.4
1.4
1.0
Unemployment rate
4.9
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.4
House price growth
2.4
2.2
0.0
0.1
1.1
1.2
Commercial real estate price growth
0.9
(0.9)
0.3
(1.0)
(1.2)
(0.4)
UK Bank Rate – modelled
4.09
3.06
2.81
2.77
2.75
3.10
UK Bank Rate – adjusted1
4.14
3.30
3.08
3.04
3.03
3.32
CPI inflation – modelled
3.3
2.5
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.4
CPI inflation – adjusted1
3.3
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.6
1The adjustment to UK Bank Rate and CPI inflation in the severe downside is considered to better reflect the risks to the
Group’s base case view in an economic environment where the risks of supply and demand shocks are seen as more balanced.
At 31 December 2024
2024
%
2025
%
2026
%
2027
%
2028
%
2024
to 2028
average
%
Upside
Gross domestic product growth
0.8
1.9
2.2
1.5
1.4
1.6
Unemployment rate
4.3
3.5
2.8
2.7
2.8
3.2
House price growth
3.4
3.7
6.5
6.6
5.4
5.1
Commercial real estate price growth
0.7
7.8
6.7
3.2
0.5
3.7
UK Bank Rate
5.06
4.71
5.02
5.19
5.42
5.08
CPI inflation
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.9
3.0
2.8
Base case
Gross domestic product growth
0.8
1.0
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.2
Unemployment rate
4.3
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.5
House price growth
3.4
2.1
1.0
1.4
2.4
2.0
Commercial real estate price growth
0.7
0.3
2.5
1.9
0.0
1.1
UK Bank Rate
5.06
4.19
3.63
3.50
3.50
3.98
CPI inflation
2.6
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.5
Downside
Gross domestic product growth
0.8
(0.5)
(0.4)
1.0
1.5
0.5
Unemployment rate
4.3
6.0
7.4
7.4
7.1
6.4
House price growth
3.4
0.6
(5.5)
(6.6)
(3.4)
(2.4)
Commercial real estate price growth
0.7
(7.8)
(3.1)
(0.9)
(2.3)
(2.7)
UK Bank Rate
5.06
3.53
1.56
0.96
0.68
2.36
CPI inflation
2.6
2.8
2.3
1.8
1.2
2.1
Severe downside
Gross domestic product growth
0.8
(1.9)
(1.5)
0.7
1.3
(0.1)
Unemployment rate
4.3
7.7
10.0
10.0
9.7
8.4
House price growth
3.4
(0.8)
(12.4)
(13.6)
(8.8)
(6.7)
Commercial real estate price growth
0.7
(17.4)
(8.5)
(5.5)
(5.7)
(7.5)
UK Bank Rate – modelled
5.06
2.68
0.28
0.08
0.02
1.62
UK Bank Rate – adjusted1
5.06
4.03
2.70
2.23
1.95
3.19
CPI inflation – modelled
2.6
2.8
1.9
1.0
0.1
1.7
CPI inflation – adjusted1
2.6
3.6
2.1
1.4
0.8
2.1
Probability-weighted
Gross domestic product growth
0.8
0.5
0.8
1.2
1.4
1.0
Unemployment rate
4.3
5.0
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.1
House price growth
3.4
1.8
(0.7)
(1.0)
0.4
0.8
Commercial real estate price growth
0.7
(1.7)
1.0
0.7
(1.1)
(0.1)
UK Bank Rate – modelled
5.06
4.00
3.09
2.90
2.88
3.59
UK Bank Rate – adjusted1
5.06
4.13
3.33
3.12
3.08
3.74
CPI inflation – modelled
2.6
2.8
2.4
2.2
1.9
2.4
CPI inflation – adjusted1
2.6
2.9
2.4
2.3
2.0
2.4
1The adjustment to UK Bank Rate and CPI inflation in the severe downside is considered to better reflect the risks to the
Group’s base case view in an economic environment where the risks of supply and demand shocks are seen as more balanced.
At 30 June 2025
First
quarter
2025
%
Second
quarter
2025
%
Third
quarter
2025
%
Fourth
quarter
2025
%
First
quarter
2026
%
Second
quarter
2026
%
Third
quarter
2026
%
Fourth
quarter
2026
%
Gross domestic product growth
0.7
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
Unemployment rate
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.9
House price growth
2.9
3.1
2.7
2.6
3.7
4.0
3.5
3.0
Commercial real estate price growth
2.5
2.7
2.6
1.6
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.1
UK Bank Rate
4.50
4.25
4.00
3.75
3.75
3.50
3.50
3.50
CPI inflation
2.8
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.0
2.6
2.6
2.4
At 31 December 2024
First
quarter
2024
%
Second
quarter
2024
%
Third
quarter
2024
%
Fourth
quarter
2024
%
First
quarter
2025
%
Second
quarter
2025
%
Third
quarter
2025
%
Fourth
quarter
2025
%
Gross domestic product growth
0.7
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
Unemployment rate
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
House price growth
0.4
1.8
4.6
3.4
3.6
4.0
3.0
2.1
Commercial real estate price growth
(5.3)
(4.7)
(2.8)
0.7
1.8
1.4
0.9
0.3
UK Bank Rate
5.25
5.25
5.00
4.75
4.50
4.25
4.00
4.00
CPI inflation
3.5
2.1
2.0
2.5
2.4
3.0
2.9
2.7
Disclosure of movement in expected credit loss allowance Movement in expected credit loss allowance
Opening
ECL at
31 Dec
2024
£m
Write-offs
and other1
£m
Income
statement
charge
(credit)
£m
Net ECL
increase
(decrease)
£m
Closing
ECL at
30 Jun
2025
£m
UK mortgages
852
(10)
(133)
(143)
709
Credit cards
674
(215)
200
(15)
659
Other Retail
950
(215)
275
60
1,010
Retail
2,476
(440)
342
(98)
2,378
Commercial Banking
989
(80)
100
20
1,009
Other
16
(1)
–
(1)
15
Total
3,481
(521)
442
(79)
3,402
Opening
ECL at
31 Dec
2023
£m
Write-offs
and other1
£m
Income
statement
charge
(credit)
£m
Net ECL
increase
(decrease)
£m
Closing
ECL at
30 Jun
2024
£m
UK mortgages2
1,115
(25)
(119)
(144)
971
Credit cards
810
(225)
115
(110)
700
Other Retail
945
(201)
198
(3)
942
Retail
2,870
(451)
194
(257)
2,613
Commercial Banking
1,182
(100)
(83)
(183)
999
Other
32
(3)
(11)
(14)
18
Total
4,084
(554)
100
(454)
3,630
Opening
ECL at
30 Jun
2024
£m
Write-offs
and other1
£m
Income
statement
charge
(credit)
£m
Net ECL
increase
(decrease)
£m
Closing
ECL at
31 Dec
2024
£m
UK mortgages3
971
(44)
(75)
(119)
852
Credit cards
700
(181)
155
(26)
674
Other Retail
942
(175)
183
8
950
Retail
2,613
(400)
263
(137)
2,476
Commercial Banking
999
(79)
69
(10)
989
Other
18
(1)
(1)
(2)
16
Total
3,630
(480)
331
(149)
3,481
1Contains adjustments in respect of purchased or originated credit-impaired financial assets.
2Includes £20 million within write-offs and other relating to the securitisation of primarily legacy Retail mortgages, totalling £1.0
billion of gross loans and advances to customers.
3Includes £33 million within write-offs and other relating to the securitisation of primarily legacy Retail mortgages, totalling £1.0
billion of gross loans and advances to customers.