FWP 1 dp11531_fwp.htm
 
 


                                           Registration Statement No. 333-137902
                                                 Dated October 6, 2008; Rule 433

                           Private Wealth Management
                                 Deutsche Bank


                            Commodity-Linked Indices

 Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index - Mean Reversion and Mean Reversion Plus

                                  OCTOBER 2008

The instruments described in this presentation are hybrid instruments under the
                         Commodity Exchange Act ("CEA")

  As such, the instruments are not contracts of sale of a commodity for future
    delivery (or options on such contracts) and are not subject to the CEA.


 
 

 
 



Disclaimer


Commodities are speculative and highly volatile. The risk of loss in trading
commodities can be substantial. Commodity prices may be subject to substantial
and unpredictable fluctuations over short periods of time and may be affected
by, among other things, a wide variety of regulatory, monetary and/or economic
developments and policies. Prospective investors must independently assess the
appropriateness of an investment in commodities in light of their own financial
situation and investment objectives.

The price of an instrument and the commodities which comprise the index may be
affected by numerous market factors, including events in the market for
commodities, the equity markets, the bond market and the foreign exchange
market, fluctuations in interest rates, and world economic, political and
regulatory events. A rise in the value of one commodity may be offset by a fall
in the value of one or more of the other commodities comprising the index.

Commodity prices can be highly volatile and may impact negatively the value of
an instrument. Volatility around the time of maturity could have a significant
impact on the overall performance of an investment.

The value of any instrument linked to either index described herein will depend
on, among other things, fluctuations in interestrates, the value of the
commodities underlying the index, the time remaining to the maturity date, and
associated options markets and hedging costs of the issuer. The value of any
instrument may start to decline significantly if the value of the index is below
the level of the index on the issue date of the instrument. Price movements may
also be caused by changes in the credit spread of the issuer.

The receipt by the investor of monies owed under instruments linked to either
index described herein is subject to and dependenton the issuer's abilities to
pay such monies. Consequently, investors are subject to a counterparty risk and
are susceptible to risks relating to the creditworthiness of the issuer.

                                     page 2
 
 

 
 



Contents


Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index - Mean Reversion TM and Mean Reversion Plus
TM

o    Executive Summary

o    Sources of Return in Commodities

o    The Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index - Mean Reversion TM

o    The Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index - Mean Reversion Plus TM

o    Performance and Descriptive Statistics

o    Market Data Sources

                                     page 3
 
 

 
 



Executive Summary


Why invest in Commodities via an Index?

o    An investment in a commodity index is a simple way for an investor to gain
     exposure to the asset class while insulating them from the mechanics of
     rolling futures and posting collateral

o    Transparent, rule-based roll mechanism eliminates human intervention


Characteristics of Commodities

o    Commodities are an asset class in their own right and exhibit unique
     characteristics

o    Low to negative correlation with traditional asset classes

o    Historically exhibit mean reversion

o    Positive correlation with inflation on a historical basis page 4


 
 

 
 



Sources of Return in Commodities

Commodity indices invest in futures contracts and are subject to the impact of
"roll return."

Spot Return: Return resulting from the change in the value of a commodity
futures contract

Roll Return: Return from the change in value of a commodity
futures contract resulting from its movement over time along its forward curve -
also known as "roll yield" or "carry."


Backwardation:* The roll return (carry) is Positive

     o    Negative slope or inverted "backward" forward curve

     o    Supply disruption price elasticity

     o    Risk premium at near-term delivery - "convenience yield" theory


Contango:* The roll return (carry) is Negative

     o    Positive slope or "normal" upward forward curve

     o    Typically reflects markets that are not as price elastic to supply
          shocks

     o    Market participants pay a "cost of carry" for deferred payment and
          delivery

     o    Time value of money, storage costs and delivery are all priced into
          the deferred premium

*Definitions:

Backwardation: market condition where the futures price is lower in the distant
delivery months than in the near delivery months
Contango: market condition where the future price for distant delivery is higher
than near delivery months, often due to the costs of storing and insuring the
underlying commodity; opposite of backwardation

                                     page 5
 
 

 
 



Sources of Return in Commodities


Backwardation Example: WTI Crude

WTI Crude normally has high demand with only a finite supply available for
immediate delivery.

This may create a market where near dated contracts trade at a premium to
contracts for future delivery.


$/bbls

                                                                   WTI Crude Oil

$96.00                 Backwardation has positive Roll Yield
$95.50
$95.00
$94.50 Long 1m Forward   Normally rolled monthly to maximize positive Roll Yield
$94.00
$93.50
$93.00       Steep "Backwardation"
$92.50
$92.00
$91.50
$91.00
$90.50
$90.00
$89.50
$89.00
$88.50
$88.00
$87.50

Spot 1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 10M 11M 12M 13M...

Losses can occur as a result of spot movement.


Source: Deutsche Bank Commodities Group           For Illustrative Purposes Only

*This illustration is designed to explain the concept of "backwardation," and
assumes a constant spot price.

                                     page 6
 
 

 
 



Sources of Return in Commodities


Contango example: Gold

Gold normally has insurance and storage costs associated with future delivery.

This may create a market where future dated contracts trade at a premium to
contracts for immediate delivery.



$ / Ounce
$915
$912             Contango has negative Roll Yield
$909
$906
$903
$900
$897                                                                        GOLD
$894
$891
$888      Long 1Yr Forward
$885                    Normally rolled annually to minimize negative Roll Yield
$882
$879
$876
$873
$870
$867
$864
Spot 1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 10M 11M 12M 13M...

Source: Deutsche Bank Commodities Group           For Illustrative Purposes Only

*This illustration is designed to explain the concept of "contango," and assumes
a constant spot price.

Losses can occur as a result of spot movement.

                                     page 7
 
 

 
 



Concept and Construction of the DBLCI-MR TM Excess Return

The DBLCI-MR TM Excess Return is composed of only six underlying commodity
futures contracts:

These 6 commodities represent some of the most liquid contracts in their
respective sectors (energy, precious metals, industrial metals, grains)

Crude Oil:

The First Nearby Month Light Sweet WTI Crude Oil futures contract on the New
York Mercantile Exchange ("NYMEX")

Heating Oil:

The First Nearby Month Heating Oil futures contract on the New York Mercantile
Exchange ("NYMEX")

Aluminum:

The December Expiry Aluminum futures contract that trades on the London Metal
Exchange ("LME")

Gold:

The December Expiry Gold futures contract that trades on the Commodity Exchange
Inc., New York ("COMEX")

Wheat:

The December Expiry Wheat futures contract that trades on the Board of Trade of
the City of Chicago Inc. ("CBOT")

Corn:

The December Expiry Corn futures contract that trades on the Board of Trade of
the City of Chicago Inc. ("CBOT")

                                     page 8
 
 

 
 


Concept and Construction of the DBLCI-MR TM Excess Return


Weighting of the Index mechanically rebalances

o    The DBLCI - MR TM mechanically rebalances its 6 constituent commodities
     such that "expensive" commodities have their weights reduced while "cheap"
     commodities have their weights increased. This is done according to a
     simple, pre-defined formula.

o    A rebalancing will occur whenever one of the commodities undergoes a
     "trigger event." A trigger event occurs when the one-year moving average
     price of the commodity trades +/-5% than the five- year moving average.

o    The DBLCI-MR Plus TM combines the DBLCI-MR's approach to optimizing
     sector-allocation in commodities with a quantitative rule-based momentum
     strategy that aims to reduce exposure and maintain returns during downturns
     in commodity markets.

o    The entire rebalancing process is rule-based and mandatory.

                                     page 9
 
 

 
 



Commodity Allocation of the DBLCI-MR TM Excess Return

                      Commodity               Base Weight      Current Weight*
ENERGY                Light Sweet Crude       35.00%           15.23%
                      Heating Oil             20.00%           8.81%

INDUSTRIAL METALS     Aluminum                12.50%           57.10%
PRECIOUS METALS       Gold                    10.00%           12.94%

AGRICULTURE           Wheat                   11.25%           2.57%
                      Corn                    11.25%           3.35%

Commodity            Roll Frequency             Current Contract*
Light Sweet Crude    Monthly                    20 Nov 2008
Heating Oil          Monthly                    28 Nov 2008
Aluminum             Yearly                     17 Dec 2008
Gold                 Yearly                     29 Dec 2008
Wheat                Yearly                     12 Dec 2008
Corn                 Yearly                     12 Dec 2008

Source: Deutsche Bank (Jan 1998 - Oct 2008)
*As of 3 Oct 2008

Commodity Roll Frequency Current Contract*
Light Sweet Crude Monthly 20 Nov 2008
Heating Oil Monthly 28 Nov 2008
Aluminum Yearly 17 Dec 2008
Gold Yearly 29 Dec 2008
Wheat Yearly 12 Dec 2008
Corn Yearly 12 Dec 2008


                                    page 10
 
 

 
 



Concept and Construction of the DBLCI-MR TM Total Return

The DBLCI - MR TM Total Return Index adds collateral yield to the Excess Return

Excess Return = Spot Return + Roll Return

Total Return = Excess Return + Collateral Yield

o    Collateral yield of 3-Month U.S. Treasury Bills is added to the DBLCI - MR
     TM Excess Return to create the DBLCI-MR TM Total Return

o    The DBLCI - MR TM Total Return and Excess Return Indexes were launched in
     February 2003 with available price history since December 1, 1988

                                    page 11
 
 

 
 


Concept and Construction of the DBLCI-MR Plus TM Excess Return

The DBLCI-MR Plus TM aims to preserve excess returns generated by the DBLCI-MR
TM by dynamically adjusting its commodity exposure to reflect upward and
downward momentum cycles

o    DBLCI-MR Plus TM Excess Return is a dynamic allocation strategy based on
     the performance of the DBLCI-MR TM Excess Return Index

o    Mandatory rebalancing takes place on a monthly basis

o    At each monthly rebalancing, the allocation in the DBLCI-MR TM Excess
     Return strategy is determined based on the performance of the DBLCI-MR TM
     Excess Return over the previous 12 months

o    Twelve performance indicators are built, reflecting the performance of
     DBLCI-MR TM Excess Return over previous 12months, 11-months,
     10-months....3-months, 2-months, 1-month

o    The allocation or component weight to commodities is proportional to the
     number of times the DBCLI-MR TM Excess Return performance is greater than
     zero

o    Rules based momentum strategy with no human intervention, only execution
     Rebalance Date

M1, C1
Rebalance Date
minus 1 m

Rebalance
Date minus
12 months

Rebalance Date

M12, C12

                                    page 12
 
 

 
 



Concept and Construction of the DBLCI-MR Plus TM Excess Return

Applying the Momentum Strategy to the DBLCI-MR TM Excess Return

The objective of this strategy is for the DBLCI-MR Plus TM Excess Return to
avoid full exposure to commodity markets during extended periods of negative
performance, while regaining partial or full exposure as they subsequently rally

500                 100%
450                 90%
400                 80%
350                 70%
300                 60%
250                 50%
200                 40%
150                 30%
100                 20%
50                  10%
0                   0%


Jan-98 May-99 Sep-00 Feb-02 Jun-03 Nov-04 Mar-06 Aug-07

                        MR+ ER    MR ER    MR Allocation

Source: Deutsche Bank, Sep 2008
Past Performance is not Indicative of Future Results

                                    page 13
 
 

 
 


Performance and Descriptive Statistics

700        DBLCI-MR+ TR
600        DBLCI-MR TR
500        S&P GSCI TR
400
300
200
100
0

Dec-97 May-99 Sep-00 Feb-02 Jun-03 Nov-04 Mar-06 Aug-07

Source: DB Global Markets Research, Bloomberg, Jan 1998 -Sep 2008

Past performance is not indicative of future results

* The DBLCI-MR and DBLCI-MR Plus have existed since February 2003 and July 2007,
respectively. The results from their respective inception dates through
September 2008 represent actual performance (gross of fees). Results prior to
inception dates are based on historical simulations run from January 1991 for
the DBLCI-MR Plus and December 1988 for the DBLCI-MR through their respective
inception dates, which do not reflect the performance of the actual indices.
This hypothetical performance is provided as an illustration and should not be
relied upon in reaching an investment decision. No representation is made that
performance of the commodity-linked indices would have been the same or similar
to the hypothetical performance reflected.

                                    page 14
 
 

 
 


DBLCI-MR Plus TM vs. DBLCI-MR TM return distributions

o    These returns are charted assuming investment in the underlying index
     occurred at the beginning of each month since January 1998.

o    Over both time horizons, the historical average annualized returns of
     DBLCI-MR+ have been positively skewed when compared to the DBLCI-MR.

          o    DBLCI-MR PLUS TR Return Frequency

          o    DBLCI-MR TR Return Frequency

                             1-year         5-year

Source: DB Global Markets Research, Bloomberg, Feb 2003 -Sep 2008

Past performance is not indicative of future results

* The DBLCI-MR and DBLCI-MR Plus have existed since February 2003 and July 2007,
respectively. The results from their respective inception dates through
September 2008 represent actual performance (gross of fees). Results prior to
inception dates are based on historical simulations run from January 1991 for
the DBLCI-MR Plus and December 1988 for the DBLCI-MR through their respective
inception dates, which do not reflect the performance of the actual indices.
This hypothetical performance is provided as an illustration and should not be
relied upon in reaching an investment decision. No representation is made that
performance of the commodity-linked indices would have been the same or similar
to the hypothetical performance reflected.

                                    page 15
 
 

 
 


Performance and Descriptive Statistics

Historical Returns

                                 DBLCI-MR
              DBLCI-MR TM         Plus TM      **Equities       *Commodities

Total Return     15.98%            16.24%          3.40%             8.75%
Excess Return    12.09%            12.34%         -0.51%             5.06%
Volatility       18.36%            12.79%         15.11%            22.74%
Sharpe Ratio      0.66              0.96          -0.03              0.22


Correlation with other asset classes++
                                                 DBLCI-MR
Correlation              DBLCI-MR TM             Plus TM

Equities **                  8%                     -3%
US Treasuries***             3%                      2%
Commodities *               74%                     65%

*: S&P GSCI
**: S&P 500 Index
***: USGATR - US Govt All Total Return Index
++: Correlation of monthly returns from Jan 1998-Sep 2008

Source: Deutsche Bank, 2008, Bloomberg , 01 Jan 1998 - 30 Sep 2008

Past performance is not indicative of future results

* The DBLCI-MR and DBLCI-MR Plus have existed since February 2003 and July 2007,
respectively. The results from their respective inception dates through
September 2008 represent actual performance (gross of fees). Results prior to
inception dates are based on historical simulations run from January 1991 for
the DBLCI-MR Plus and December 1988 for the DBLCI-MR through their respective
inception dates, which do not reflect the performance of the actual indices.
This hypothetical performance is provided as an illustration and should not be
relied upon in reaching an investment decision. No representation is made that
performance of the commodity-linked indices would have been the same or similar
to the hypothetical performance reflected.

                                    page 16
 
 

 
 


Market Data Sources

Bloomberg Tickers:

DBLCI-MR TM Total Return         DBLCMMVL Index
DBLCI-MR TM Excess Return        DBLCMMCL Index

DBLCI-MR Plus TM Total Return    DBLCMPUT Index
DBLCI-MR Plus TM Excess Return   DBLCMPUE Index

                                    page 17
 
 

 
 


Important Notes

This document is intended to provide you with information regarding the Deutsche
Bank Liquid Commodity Index - Mean Reversion and Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity
Index - Mean Reversion Plus.

The analysis set forth herein is based on information we believe to be reliable,
including internal models, certain assumptions (all of which are subject to
change without notice) and available market data, which may be internally
generated.

"Deutsche Bank" means Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliated companies, as the
context requires. Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management refers to Deutsche
Bank's wealth management activities for high net worth clients around the world.

Investors should consider an investment linked to the indices described herein
only after careful consideration and consultation with their legal, tax,
accounting and other advisers as to the suitability of the investments in light
of their own particular financial, tax and other circumstances and the
information set out in this document and the other documents we provide to you.

Deutsche Bank AG has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus)
with the Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, for offerings to which
these materials relate. Before you invest, you should read the prospectus in
that registration statement and the other documents relating to such offering
that Deutsche Bank AG has filed with the SEC for more complete information about
Deutsche Bank AG and such offering. You may obtain these documents without cost
by visiting EDGAR on the SEC Web site at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, Deutsche
Bank AG, any agent or any dealer participating in such offering will arrange to
send you the prospectus, prospectus supplement and other documents relating to
the offering if you so request by calling toll-free 1-800-311-4409.

Your return on an investment linked to the indices described herein will be
dependent on the performance of the indices during the term of the instrument.
There is no assurance that the commodities which comprise the index will have
positive performance and past performance of any of the commodities which
comprise the index is not a guarantee, nor necessarily indicative, of their
future performance.

Deutsche Bank AG, including its subsidiaries and affiliates, does not provide
legal, tax or accounting advice. This communication was prepared solely in
connection with the promotion or marketing, to the extent permitted by
applicable law, of the matter addressed herein, and was not intended or written
to be used, and cannot be used or relied upon, by any taxpayer for purposes of
avoiding any U.S. federal tax penalties. The recipient of this communication
should seek advice from an independent tax advisor regarding any tax matters
addressed herein based on its particular circumstances.

                                    page 18
 
 

 
 


S&P GSCI Disclaimer

These materials are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Standard &
Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. ("S&P"). Standard & Poor's
does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the owners
of any instrument linked to the indices described herein or any member of the
public regarding the advisability of investing in securities generally or in any
instrument linked to the indices described herein or the ability of S&P GSCI
Index to track general commodity market performance. S&P's only relationship to
Deutsche Bank AG is the licensing of certain trademarks and trade names of S&P
and of S&P GSCI Index, which indices are determined, composed and calculated by
S&P without regard to Deutsche Bank AG any instrument linked to the indices
described herein. S&P has no obligation to take the needs of Deutsche Bank AG or
the owners of any instrument linked to the indices described herein into
consideration in determining, composing or calculating S&P GSCI Index. S&P is
not responsible for and have not participated in the determination of the timing
of, prices at, or quantities of any instrument linked to the indices described
herein to be issued or in the determination or calculation of the equation by
which the S&P GSCI Index are to be converted into cash. S&P has no obligation or
liability in connection with the administration, marketing or trading of any
instrument linked to the indices described herein.

S&P DOES NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY AND/OR THE COMPLETENESS OF S&P GSCI INDEX OR
ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN AND S&P SHALL HAVE NO LIABILITY FOR ANY ERRORS,
OMISSIONS, OR INTERRUPTIONS THEREIN. S&P MAKES NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED,
AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED BY DEUTSCHE BANK AG, OWNERS OF ANY INSTRUMENT
LINKED TO THE INDICES DESCRIBED HEREIN OR ANY OTHER PERSON OR ENTITY FROM THE
USE OF S&P GSCI INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. S&P MAKES NO EXPRESS OR
IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR
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S&P HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL
DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH
DAMAGES.

S&P GSCI Index is a trademark of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and has been
licensed for use by Deutsche Bank AG.

                                    page 19