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Derivative Financial Instruments (Tables)
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2018
Change in Derivative Liability The change in the derivative liability for the years ended December 31, 2018, 2017 and 2016 consists of the following:
 
 
 
Fair Value
 
Balance, 
June 30, 2016
 
$
694
 
Dividends
 
 
44
 
Change in fair value
 
 
124
 
Balance, 
December 31, 2016
 
$
862
 
Dividends
 
 
267
 
Change in fair value
 
 
1,295
 
Balance, 
December 31, 2017
 
$
2,424
 
Dividends
 
 
223
 
Change in fair value
 
 
(158
)
Settlement of a related party relationship
 
 
(2,489
)
Balance, December 31, 2018
 
$
 
Series 1 Preferred Stock  
Fair Value Assumptions Used in Probability Weighted Approach and Monte Carlo Simulation Model
The fair value of the Series 1 preferred stock dividends was estimated using a probability-weighted approach and a Monte Carlo simulation model. The fair value of the embedded derivatives was estimated using the “with” and “without” method where the preferred stock was first valued with all of its features (“with” scenario) and then without derivatives subject to the valuation analysis (“without” scenario). The fair value of the derivatives was then estimated as the difference between the fair value of the preferred stock in the “with” scenario and the preferred stock in the “without” scenario. The model also takes into account, management estimates of clinical success/failure based upon market studies and probability of potential conversion and liquidation events. If these estimates were different, the valuations would change, and that change could be material. Inputs to the models included the following:
 
 
 
December 31
,
 
 
 
2018
 
 
2017
 
Risk-free interest rate
 
 
2.50 - 3.13
%
 
 
1.92 - 2.12
%
Expected dividend rate
 
 
0
 
 
 
0
 
Expected volatility
 
 
77.6 - 82.4
%
 
 
68.7 - 80.4
 %
Preferred stock conversion limit
percentage of outstanding common stock
 
 
19.90
%
 
 
19.90
%
Preferred conversion floor price
 
$
1.00
 
 
$
1.00