Derivative Financial Instruments (Tables)

3 Months Ended

Mar. 31, 2018

Fair Value Assumptions Used in Probability Weighted Approach and Monte Carlo Simulation Model

The fair value of the Series 1 preferred stock was estimated using a probability-weighted approach and a Monte Carlo simulation model. The fair value of the embedded derivatives was estimated using the “with” and “without” method where the preferred stock was first valued with all of its features (“with” scenario) and then without derivatives subject to the valuation analysis (“without” scenario). The fair value of the derivatives was then estimated as the difference between the fair value of the preferred stock in the “with” scenario and the preferred stock in the “without” scenario. The model also takes into account, management estimates of clinical success/failure based upon market studies and probability of potential conversion and liquidation events. If these estimates were different, the valuations would change, and that change could be material. Inputs to the models included the following:

Risk-free interest rate		1.04	%
Expected dividend rate		0
Expected volatility		70.50	%
Preferred stock conversion limit - percentage of outstanding common stock		19.90	%
Preferred conversion floor price	$	1.00

Fair Values of Derivative Instruments to be classified as Derivative Liabilities on Balance Sheet

Fair values of derivative instruments to be classified as derivative liabilities on the balance sheet consist of the following:

($ in thousands)
Liability derivates:	Balance Sheet Location		Fair Value
March 31, 2018:
Derivative liabilities		Liabilities	$	2,469

Change in Derivative Liability

The change in the derivative liability for the three months ended March 31, 2018 consisted of the following:

($ in thousands)
	Fair Value
Balance, December 31, 2017	$	2,424
Dividends		73
Change in fair value		(28	)
Balance, March 31, 2018	$	2,469

Series 1 Preferred Stock

Fair Value Assumptions Used in Probability Weighted Approach and Monte Carlo Simulation Model

The fair value of the Series 1 preferred stock dividends was estimated using a probability-weighted approach and a Monte Carlo simulation model. The fair value of the embedded derivatives was estimated using the “with” and “without” method where the preferred stock was first valued with all of its features (“with” scenario) and then without derivatives subject to the valuation analysis (“without” scenario). The fair value of the derivatives was then estimated as the difference between the fair value of the preferred stock in the “with” scenario and the preferred stock in the “without” scenario. The model also takes into account, management estimates of clinical success/failure based upon market studies and probability of potential conversion and liquidation events. If these estimates were different, the valuations would change, and that change could be material. Inputs to the models included the following:

	March 31, 2018			December 31, 2017
Risk-free interest rate		2.50	%		1.92 - 2.12	%
Expected dividend rate		0			0
Expected volatility		80.30	%		68.7 - 80.4	%
Preferred stock conversion limit - percentage of outstanding common stock		19.90	%		19.90	%
Preferred conversion floor price	$	1.00		$	1.00