EX-99.(C)(4) 3 dex99c4.htm PRELIMINARY PRESENTATION OF MERRILL LYNCH, PIERCE, FENNER & SMITH- 08/05/05 Preliminary presentation of Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith- 08/05/05
Neoforma Special Committee
Confidential Presentation Materials Prepared For: **
August 5, 2005
Regarding
Project LeapFrog
Exhibit (c)(4)
Confidential Treatment Requested. Certain portions of this document have been omitted pursuant to a request for
confidential treatment and, where applicable, have been marked with an asterisk to denote where omissions have
been made. The confidential material has been filed separately with the Securities and Exchange Commission.


CONFIDENTIAL
Table of Contents
Presentation to Neoforma Special Committee
1.  Review of Final Bids
2.  Preliminary Valuation
Appendix


Review of Final Bids


CONFIDENTIAL
1
Review of Final Bids
Key Economic Terms
____________________
(1)
Price paid on 1 million VUN shares.
(2)
Based
on
fully-diluted
share
count
of
20.7mm
shares
less
10.7mm
shares
owned
by
VUN.
(3)
Revenue and EBITDA multiples based on fully- diluted share count of 20.7mm shares less net cash of $35mm.
(2)
(3)
GHX
**
Equity
$207.29
$160.65
Price Per Share to:
EV
$172.32
$125.68
Public Shareholders
VUN
Total Value to:
Public Shareholders
$100 million
$77 million
VUN
$10 million
$30 million
Other VUN Consideration:
21% ownership in proforma
GHX
(2 Board Seats)
Premium Analysis:
Current
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
1 Year
Results
Implied Multiples
Implied Multiples
Implied Multiples   :
Research
Management
Research
Management
Research
Management
2005E Revenue
$73.5
$73.6
2.3x
2.3x
1.7x
1.7x
2005E EBITDA
$16.2
$15.6
10.6x
11.1x
7.8x
8.1x
2005E P/E
$0.81
$0.78
12.3x
12.8x
9.5x
9.9x
44.9%
35.7%
26.5%
$7.75
$2.75
2.6%
10.2%
12.3%
5.2%
(2.0%)
$10.00
$10.00
32.5%
42.3%
$7.37
$7.91
Average Price
$7.55
$7.03
$6.90
(1)
** Confidential treatment requested.


CONFIDENTIAL
2
Review of Final Bids (Cont’d)
Implied Multiples Matrix –
Offer at $10.00 per share
____________________
Note: “NM”
means negative or greater than 50.0x.
(1)
Revenue and EBITDA multiples based on fully- diluted share count of 20.7mm shares less net cash of $35mm.
$37mm
$40mm
$45mm
$50mm
$55mm
$61mm
2006E Revenue
$54.0
$57.0
$62.0
$67.0
$72.0
$78.0
2006E EBITDA
$3.7
$6.7
$11.7
$16.7
$21.7
$27.7
2006E Net Income
($11.3)
($8.3)
($3.3)
$1.7
$6.7
$12.7
2006E Revenue
3.2x
3.0x
2.8x
2.6x
2.4x
2.2x
2006E EBITDA
47.1x
25.9x
14.8x
10.3x
8.0x
6.2x
2006E Net Income
NM
NM
NM
NM
30.9x
16.3x
Assumed Annual Outsourcing Agreement Fee
Results
Implied Multiples
(1)


CONFIDENTIAL
3
Review of Final Bids (Cont’d)
Key Outsourcing Agreement (OA) Terms
____________________
(1)
Comprised of a $10mm fixed annual fee plus a fee based on gross transaction volume.
** Confidential treatment requested.
**


CONFIDENTIAL
4
Review of Final Bids (Cont’d)
Other Transaction Terms
** Confidential treatment requested.
**


Preliminary Valuation


CONFIDENTIAL
5
Preliminary Valuation
We have analyzed three primary scenarios with respect to the Outsourcing Agreement
Scenario
1:
Contract
Terminated
in
2010
The OA is assumed to remain in place, but is not extended at its termination in 2010
Scenario
2:
Contract
Extended
through
2015
The OA is renegotiated effective January 2006, and is assumed to be extended
through
2015; OA is not extended beyond this point
Scenario
3:
Contract
Renewed
in
Perpetuity
The OA is renegotiated effective January 2006  and is assumed to be extended in
perpetuity
For each of these scenarios, we have looked at the sensitivity to changes in the assumed annual
OA fee ranging from $37mm to $61mm
The cost structure is assumed to remain unchanged from its current Base Case levels –
a $1mm
reduction in OA fee results in a $1mm reduction in EBITDA
Scenario Analysis


CONFIDENTIAL
6
Preliminary Valuation
Key Model Assumptions
2005E –
2008E projections per management
Includes effect of Project Modesto cost savings initiatives (no reduction in public
company costs) as follows:
2009E –
2010E projections are based on the following assumptions:
NSG revenues are projected using a 20% growth rate
Consolidated EBITDA margin assumed to remain flat to 2008E level
No cash taxes due to utilization of NOLs
Capital expenditures projected at 4.0% of sales (based on 2006E –
2008E average)
For analysis of Scenario 2, we have extended projections through
2015
NSG revenues are projected using a 10% growth rate
For Scenarios 1 and 2, Perpetuity Value is derived entirely from
NSG business
NSG EBITDA margin assumed to be 10.0%; business burdened by entire corporate
overhead and public company costs
Base Case Projections
2006
2007
2008
Impact of Savings Initiatives
$8,090
$12,898
$13,138


CONFIDENTIAL
7
Preliminary Valuation
Projected
Income
Statement
Base
Case
(Amounts in Thousands, Except Per Share Data)
Fiscal Year Ended
CAGR
CAGR
2005E
2006E
2007E
2008E
2009E
2010E
'03 - '05
'05 - '10
Adjusted Revenue
Related Party
$61,522
$61,305
$61,204
$61,106
$61,106
$61,106
(6.3%)
(0.1%)
Y-o-Y growth %
(0.4%)
(0.4%)
(0.2%)
(0.2%)
0.0%
0.0%
Non-Related Party
12,064
17,025
22,814
31,245
37,494
44,993
8.6%
30.1%
Y-o-Y growth %
(4.7%)
41.1%
34.0%
37.0%
20.0%
20.0%
Total Adjusted Revenue
73,586
78,330
84,018
92,351
98,600
106,099
(4.2%)
7.6%
Gross Operating Expense
61,484
63,384
69,090
73,250
77,499
82,863
2.0%
6.1%
Impact of Potential Savings Initiatives
0
8,090
12,898
13,138
13,311
13,793
Capitalized SW Development Costs
3,464
4,925
5,910
5,910
6,310
6,790
EBITDA
15,566
27,961
33,736
38,148
40,722
43,819
(14.3%)
23.0%
Margin %
21.2%
35.7%
40.2%
41.3%
41.3%
41.3%


CONFIDENTIAL
Valuation based on Discounted Cash Flow analysis, including sensitivity to changes in the OA revenue
Terminal Value calculated using two methods
Blended Perpetuity growth rate of 3.0% to 5.0%
LTM EBITDA exit multiple of 9.0x to 11.0x
Discount rate range of 13.0% to 15.0%
Cash flows throughout are not tax-effected due to utilization of NOL
8
Preliminary Valuation
Valuation Methodology
Indicative Cash Flows –
$61mm OA Fee
Fiscal Year Ended
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Revenue
$73.6
$78.3
$84.0
$92.4
$98.6
$106.1
   Y-o-Y growth %
(1.2%)
6.4%
7.3%
9.9%
6.8%
7.6%
EBITDA
$15.6
$28.0
$33.7
$38.1
$40.7
$43.8
   Margin %
21.2%
35.7%
40.2%
41.3%
41.3%
41.3%
Less: changes in working capital
0.6
(0.2)
0.0
(1.8)
(1.8)
(1.8)
Less: capital expenditure
(4.3)
(3.0)
(5.0)
(3.0)
(3.9)
(4.2)
Capitalization of SW Development
(3.5)
(4.9)
(5.9)
(5.9)
(6.3)
(6.8)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
$8.3
$19.9
$22.9
$27.4
$28.7
$31.0
Free Cash Flow Growth Rate
35.4%
138.2%
15.0%
19.9%
4.5%
8.1%


CONFIDENTIAL
9
Discounted
Cash
Flow
Sensitivity
Analysis
Preliminary Valuation
Scenario 1 –
Contract Terminated in 2010
____________________
(1)     Equity
Value
=
Enterprise
Value
+
Net
Cash
Severance
and
other
one-time
costs
of
$8mm.
Midpoint of 3.0% to 5.0% Growth Rate
5.8
$37.0
$45.0
$50.0
$55.0
$61.0
13.0%
2.33
3.54
4.30
5.06
5.97
14.0%
2.21
3.40
4.14
4.89
5.78
15.0%
2.12
3.28
4.01
4.74
5.61
Value Per Share -
Perpetuity Method
(1)
Novation
Annual Revenue -
'06 and forward
Midpoint of 9x to 11x LTM EBITDA Multiple
6.1
$37.0
$45.0
$50.0
$55.0
$61.0
13.0%
2.60
3.81
4.57
5.33
6.24
14.0%
2.55
3.74
4.48
5.22
6.12
15.0%
2.51
3.67
4.40
5.13
6.00
Value Per Share -
EBITDA Method
(1)
Novation
Annual Revenue -
'06 and forward


CONFIDENTIAL
10
Discounted
Cash
Flow
Sensitivity
Analysis
Preliminary Valuation
____________________
(1)     Equity
Value
=
Enterprise
Value
+
Net
Cash
Severance
and
other
one-time
costs
of
$8mm.
Scenario 2 –
Contract Extended through 2015
Midpoint of 3.0% to 5.0% Growth Rate
9.7
$37.0
$45.0
$50.0
$55.0
$61.0
13.0%
3.78
5.89
7.22
8.54
10.13
14.0%
3.54
5.58
6.85
8.12
9.65
15.0%
3.35
5.31
6.53
7.76
9.23
Value Per Share -
Perpetuity Method
(1)
Novation
Annual Revenue -
'06 and forward
Midpoint of 9x to 11x LTM EBITDA Multiple
9.9
$37.0
$45.0
$50.0
$55.0
$61.0
13.0%
3.92
6.03
7.36
8.68
10.27
14.0%
3.75
5.78
7.06
8.33
9.86
15.0%
3.59
5.55
6.78
8.00
9.47
Value Per Share -
EBITDA Method
(1)
Novation
Annual Revenue -
'06 and forward


CONFIDENTIAL
11
Discounted
Cash
Flow
Sensitivity
Analysis
Preliminary Valuation
____________________
(1)     Equity
Value
=
Enterprise
Value
+
Net
Cash
Severance
and
other
one-time
costs
of
$8mm.
Scenario 3 –
Contract Renewed in Perpetuity
Midpoint of 3.0% to 5.0% Growth Rate
13.5
$37.0
$45.0
$50.0
$55.0
$61.0
13.0%
3.87
7.54
9.84
12.13
14.89
14.0%
3.58
6.89
8.96
11.03
13.52
15.0%
3.34
6.36
8.25
10.14
12.40
Value
Per
Share
-
Perpetuity
Method
(1)
Novation
Annual
Revenue
-
'06
and
forward
Midpoint of 9x to 11x LTM EBITDA Multiple
16.3
$37.0
$45.0
$50.0
$55.0
$61.0
13.0%
6.80
10.16
12.27
14.37
16.89
14.0%
6.56
9.80
11.82
13.85
16.27
15.0%
6.33
9.45
11.40
13.35
15.69
Value
Per
Share
-
EBITDA
Method
(1)
Novation
Annual
Revenue
-
'06
and
forward


Appendix


CONFIDENTIAL
12
Appendix
WACC Calculation
(1) Adjusted betas. Source: The Merrill Lynch Beta Book as of July 2005
(2) Unlevered Beta = (Levered Beta/(1 + ((1 - Tax Rate) * Debt/Equity)).  Assumes Beta of debt equals zero
(3) Unlevered Return = (Estimated Future Risk Free Rate + (Unlevered Beta * Risk Premium))
(4) Levered Cost of Equity = (Estimated Future Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Risk Premium))
(5) WACC = ((Debt/Capitalization * (Cost of Debt * (1 - Tax Rate))) + (Equity/Capitalization * Levered Cost of Equity))
(Amounts in Millions, Except Per Share Data)
Comparable
Levered
Marginal
Equity
Debt to
Unlevered
Levered
Unlevered
Companies
Beta
(1)
Tax Rate
Debt
Market Value
Equity
Beta
(2)
Return
Return
(3)
Lawson Software (LWSN)
1.57
35.0%
1.3
546.3
0.2%
1.57
14.9%
14.9%
Omnicell (OMCL)
1.31
35.0%
5.8
213.4
2.7%
1.29
13.1%
13.0%
Allscripts (MDRX)
1.46
35.0%
82.5
680.6
12.1%
1.35
14.2%
13.4%
Per-Se Technologies (PSTI)
0.94
35.0%
125.6
677.1
18.6%
0.84
10.6%
9.9%
Trizetto Group (TZIX)
1.26
35.0%
30.8
624.5
4.9%
1.22
12.8%
12.5%
Average
1.31
35.0%
7.7%
1.25
13.1%
12.7%
Leapfrog
1.240
35.0%
0.0
158.5
0.0%
1.24
12.7%
12.7%
Levered Cost of Equity
(4)
Macroeconomic
Unlevered Beta's
Assumptions
Debt/Equity
1.17
1.21
1.24
1.28
1.31
Risk Free Rate
4.1%
0.0%
12.2%
12.4%
12.7%
12.9%
13.1%
Risk Premium
6.9%
0.0%
12.2%
12.4%
12.7%
12.9%
13.1%
Estimated Market Return
11.0%
0.0%
12.2%
12.4%
12.7%
12.9%
13.1%
3.9%
12.4%
12.6%
12.9%
13.1%
13.4%
7.7%
12.6%
12.8%
13.1%
13.3%
13.6%
Capital Structure
WACC
(5)
Debt to
Equity to
Cost
Unlevered Beta's
Capitalization
Capitalization
   of Debt  
Debt Equity
1.17
1.21
1.24
1.28
1.31
0.0%
100.0%
9.0%
0.0%
12.2%
12.4%
12.7%
12.9%
13.1%
0.0%
100.0%
9.5%
0.0%
12.2%
12.4%
12.7%
12.9%
13.1%
0.0%
100.0%
10.0%
0.0%
12.2%
12.4%
12.7%
12.9%
13.1%
3.7%
96.3%
10.5%
3.9%
12.2%
12.4%
12.6%
12.9%
13.1%
7.2%
92.8%
11.0%
7.7%
12.2%
12.4%
12.7%
12.9%
13.1%