EX-99.C.6 5 y36230exv99wcw6.htm EX-99.C.6: MATERIALS PRESENTED BY LEHMAN BROTHERS AND MORGAN STANLEY MARCH 27, 2007 EX-99.C.6
 

EXHIBIT (C)(6)
Project            Hudson: —— — Presentation to the Special Transaction Committee of Cablevision — March 27, 2007 lehman brothers Morgan Stan ley Y36230-146

 


 

Executive Summary —
A number of factors have negatively impacted the public markets since the STC rejected the $30 offer
price on January 16, 2007
o            On February 27, 2007:
China’s Shanghai Composite index dropped 8.8%, the biggest decline in a decade, reflecting investor concerns that the Chinese
government could actively seek to cool China’s markets
Greenspan was quoted telling a Hong Kong business conference that a recession is “possible” later this year, further increasing market
concerns regarding a slowdown
Increased mortgage default rates coupled with a 30% decline in an index tracking bonds backed by subprime mortgages increased focus
on potential subprime mortgage risk
D            All three events occurring on the same day caused world markets to decline, with the Dow dropping 41 6 points, or 3.3%, and only recently
recovering
I d Comcast reported 4 th quarter results
RGU results were strong and guidance in revenue and EBITDA increased slightly; capex guidance however, came in $1 B higher than
expected, depressing near-term FCF
Comcast’s share price has since decreased from ~$30 to ~$26 leading cable-only EBITDA multiples to decline from 9.3x to 8.5x
I d CVC reported 4 th quarter results
RGU net adds were below expectations but financial results were strong with ARPUs rising across the board
K9 — This led to increases in projected cable revenue and EBITDA growth in the mid-teens
mfl — CVC’s stock price has increased from ~$27 to ~$30 but cable-only EBITDA multiples have declined from 8.7x to 8.5x< 1 ) as EBITDA
forecasts have risen
Kjfl d Verizon reported 4 th quarter results
KSJ — Capex guidance for FiOS in 2007 above expectations —
Kra — FiOS video subscribers beat estimates on an absolute basis (207,000 vs. 175,000) but due to increased homes passed late in the 4 th
quarter, VZ reached only 9% video penetration vs. the 1 0% it expected
FiOS data subscribers came in below estimates with (687,000 vs. 725,000) equating to 14% penetration
Verizon’s stock price has increased from ~$35 to ~$38 with EBITDA multiples increasing from 5.1x to 5.4x
I d FCC examining need for ownership caps within the cable industry
30% cap currently being discussed; Comcast presently at 27% —
1. Multiples based on Wall Street research. lehman brothers Morgan Stan ley

 


 

Cablevision / Comcast Trading Dynamics —— — 1 Cablevision Trading Performance 1 Price            Volume Revised Offer      , . 2/27/07: Cablevision ___ic —— — £ 31 ,-J 1 0/9/06: Dolan II Proposal announced            Price: $30 “-™ : ’ reports 4Q 06 Earnings — : l_ ___.. —— —         ...*... ..few***. /Wi —— — WA/"~ »1 V 1 ~Ijr- \ f — 3/22/07: L 1/12/07: Dolan Familv I — / t 11/8/06’ Cablevision            revised offer of $30 2/1/07: Cornea            st reports 3/1/07. Time ninas            Warner Cable —— loses , nlngs mW hrgin- network * reports 3U ‘06 Results /IQ ° 6 Ear — / :$27 trading publicly fl DVR case b — $23 * 10/06/2006 11/16/2006 12/27/2006 2/06/2007 3/23/2007 Cablevision / Comcast Relative Stock Price Performance 1 2/27/07: Cablevision — / vu \ J\ Earnings            A            yv — I W ~ CVC:26% / V Ifv / r-’\ V I ZA A f H 3/13/07- Stocks 1 — r-<*— ‘ v S~* S M !H l&i s2j iH? s HI P !r£ id 1 — 2/1/07: Comcast reports I • V~.V8 H Ending fears 1 J            AC\ ‘OR Farninno            k —— — m *y * • ’ ___ nmm o ‘ XI I            NT — CMCSA:7 — 7 - T IL “ 8&P:6% \ ** stock begins trading V* lex-dividend (3-for-2) I — 10/06/2006 12/27/2006 3/23/2007 lehman brothers 2 Morgan Stan ley

 


 

Overview of Media Sector Trading Performance Stock Price Performance 10/9/06 — 1/16/07 30.0% DBS Media Conglomerates Cable 25.0% 20.0% RBOCs Indices 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%
(5.0% ) CMCSA CVC MCCC T VZ Q            DISH DTV TWX NWS DIS CBS VIA            DJIA S&P500 S&P 500 Adj. (1) 12.1% 1.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.3% (5.1%) 16.0% 14.3% 15.3% 7.7% 6.6% 5.0% 2.8% 0.1% - Stock Price Performance 1/16/07 — Present RBOCs 15.0% Cable DBS Media Conglomerates 10.0% Indices 5.0% 0.0% (5.0% ) (10.0% ) (15.0% ) CVC MCCC CMCSA TWC            T Q VZ            DISH DTV NWS VIA DIS CBS TWX            DJIA S&P500 S&P 500 Adj. (1) 6.0% (1.3%) (10.8%) (11.2%) 12.1% 5.0% 2.4% 5.8% (6.2%) 3.0% (1.3%) (0.3%) (2.7%) (13.2%) (1.2%) - 1. S&P 500 Adj. is the difference between the company’s appreciation/(decline) and the S&P’s appreciation/(decline) over the same time period. 3

 


 

Comcast and Time Warner Trading Performance Average 2007E EBITDA Percentage Moves in Comcast 2007E EBITDA Valuation Multiples Multiples Valuation (3) Implied CVC Prices (1) : $29.56 $27.00 $31.11 $28.41 $27.69 $25.63 9.9x 10.0x 30% 10.0x9.7x 28% 9.4x 9.3x 9.3x 25% 9.0x 8.9x 9.0x 9.0x 8.8x 22% 8.7x 8.5x 8.4x 20% 19% 8.0x 8.0x 16% 15% 13% 7.0x 7.0x 10% 7% 6.0x 5% 6.0x 0% 5.0x 12/8/06 (2) 1/12/07 3/23/07 12/8/06 (2) 1/12/07 3/23/07 5.0x STC Meeting Revised Offer Current STC Meeting Revised Offer Current 6 months 3 months 2 months 1 month Inde nture De fault (9/14/06) O ne Day Prior (10/6/06) Comcast TW Cable Comcast TW Cable 2007E EBITDA: Comcast: $12,056 $12,056 $12,085 TW Cable: $5,809 $5,809 $5,831 Source: Factset. 1. CVC stock price when indenture default was disclosed was $24.25; CVC stock price one day prior to original Dolan Of fer was $23.93. 2. Date of STC Meeting at which full valuation was presented was 12/8/06, however, prices used for that meeting were as of business close on 12/6/06. 3. Calculated using average stock prices over stated period, current 2007E EBITDA and current capital structure.

 


 

Cablevision Valuation Matrix 3 Since Comcast’s 4Q ‘06 Cable-Only Valuation Multiples (1) earnings announcement on Management Plan            Wall Street February 1, 2007, its stock price Share EV (RMH @ $10) / EBITDA EV (RMH @ $12) / EBITDA EV (R MH @ $10) / EBITDA EV (RMH @ $12) / EBITDA EV / Sub EV has traded down 7% Price 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 @$10 $1,851 $2,070 $1,851 $2,070 $1,849 $2,040 $1,849 $2,040 3,1 27 - Stock is currently trading at $27.00 8.0 x7.1 x7.6 x 6.8 x 8.0 x 7.2 x 7.6 x 6.9 x $4,71 3 8.5x 2007 EBITDA 3 TWC is trading at a higher 2007 $28.00 8.1 x7.3 x7.8 x 7.0 x 8.1 x 7.4 x 7.8 x 7.1 x $4,81 0 EBITDA multiple (9.4x), in part $29.00 8.3 x7.4 x8.0 x 7.1 x 8.3 x 7.5 x 8.0 x 7.2 x $4,90 7 due to the depressed cash flow of the recently acquired $30.00 8.5 x7.6 x8.1 x 7.3 x 8.5 x 7.7 x 8.1 x 7.4 x $5,00 4 Adelphia systems $31.00 8.6 x7.7 x8.3 x 7.4 x 8.6 x 7.8 x 8.3 x 7.5 x $5,10 1 $32.00 8.8 x7.9 x8.5 x 7.6 x 8.8 x 8.0 x 8.5 x 7.7 x $5,19 8 Premia / (Discounts) $33.00 8.9 x8.0 x8.6 x 7.7 x 9.0 x 8.1 x 8.6 x 7.8 x $5,29 5 1-Day Prior to Current 30 Trading 52-Week 52-Week Share Oct. Offer 3/23/07 Day Average High Low $34.009.1 x8.1 x 8.8 x 7.9 x 9.1 x 8.3 x 8.8 x 8.0 x $5,39 3 Price $23.93 $30.25 $29.69 $30.87 $16.40 $27 13% (11%) (9%) (13%) 65% $35.00 9.3 x8.3 x9.0 x 8.0 x 9.3 x 8.4 x 9.0 x 8.1 x $5,49 0 $28 17% (7%) (6%) (9%) 71% $29 21% (4%) (2%) (6%) 77% $36.00 9.4 x8.4 x9.1 x 8.2 x 9.4 x 8.6 x 9.1 x 8.3 x $5,58 7 $30 25% (1%) 1% (3%) 83% $31 30% 2% 4% 0% 89% $37.00 9.6 x8.6 x9.3 x 8.3 x 9.6 x 8.7 x 9.3 x 8.4 x $5,68 4 $32 34% 6% 8% 4% 95% $33 38% 9% 11% 7% 101% $34 42% 12% 15% 10% 107% $35 46% 16% 18% 13% 113% Current CMCSA Multiples (2) $36 50% 19% 21% 17% 120% Current TWC Multiples (3) 1. Both cases assume current value of non-cable assets based on a Rainbow price per share of both $10 and $12, CVC fu lly diluted share count of 298.2mm, RMH net debt and other adjustments of $1.0bn, enterprise value of $700mm and capitalized overhead attributable to cable of $244mm. Consolidated net debt an d other EV adjustments estimated at $11.2bn. Wall Stre et case adjusted to reflect research consensus for cable-only EBITDA values. 2. Based on CMCSA ‘07/’08 EV/EBITDA multiples of 8.5x/7.5x and a per subscriber multiple of $4,270. 3. Based on TWC ‘07/’08 EV/EBITDA multiples of 9.4x/8.2x and a per subscriber multiple of $4,096.

 


 

Cable-Only Multiples Price Sensitivity 3 Based on both Management and Wall Street projections, assuming the cable-only multiples of comparable companies RMH values between $8.00 and $14.00 per share implies a consolidated share price of: - ~$28-$34, based on Comcast’s multiple - ~$34-$40, based on Time Warner’s multiple Offer Prices Based on Cable-Only 2007 EV / EBITDA M ultiples (1) Cable Only            Premium/ Premium/ Implied Offer Prices EV / 2007E            Discount            Discount            Rainbow Group Value per S            hare EBITDA to Comcast to TWC $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 7.5x (20%) (20%) $22 $24 $26 $28
8.0x (6%) (15%) $25 $27 $29 $31 Comcast 8.5x 0% (10%) $28 $30 $32 $34
9.0x 6% (4%) $31 $33 $35 $37 TWC 9.4x 11% 0% $34 $36 $38 $40 9.5x 12% 1% $34 $36 $38 $40 10.0x 18% 6% $38 $40 $42 $44 1. Management 2007E cable EBITDA of $1,851mm; Wall Street 2007E cable EBITDA of $1,849. Assumes CVC fully dil uted share count of 298.2mm, RMH net debt and other adjustments of $1.0bn, Lightpath enterprise value of $700mm and capitalized overhead attributable to cable of $244mm. Consolidated net debt and other EV adjustments estimated at $11.2bn.

 


 

Cablevision 2006 Actuals vs. Estimates AOCF Comparison 3 Budget represents 2006 Budget and LTP ($in millions) 2006 AOCF            Difference 3 3Q FYF represents Business            Budget 3Q FYF            Research            Actual            Budget 3Q FYF            Research Management estimates post Consumer Services $1,566 $1,595 $1,594 $1,611 $45 $16 $16 3Q results            Lightpath 585862 58 (0) (0) (4) 3 Wall Street Research based on Total Telecom $1,624 $1,653 $1,656 $1,669 $45 $16 $12 median of Deutsche Bank, Rainbow National Services 272 266 NA 269 (3) 4 NA Lehman Brothers, Morgan            Other Rainbow (109) (116) NA (108) 0 7 NA Stanley and UBS equity Total Rainbow $163 $150 $152 $161 ($2) $11 $9 research projections pre-4Q            MSG 131 66 NA 72 (58) 7 NA ‘06 results            Corporate & Other (31) (85) NA (82) (51) 4 NA Total Company $1,887 $1,783 $1,816 $1,820 ($66) $37 $5 3 Despite beating its projections for Telecom, Management AOCF — Capex Comparison missed AOCF estimates ($in millions) 2006 AOCF — Capex            Difference primarily due to one-time events at MSG including the Business            Budget 3Q FYFResearch            Actual Budget3Q FYF            Research settlement with Larry Brown            Consumer Services $877 $823 $826 $833 ($44) $10 $7 Lightpath 22 20 26 16 (7) (4) (10) 3 Management continues to Total Telecom $900 $843 $852 $849 ($51) $5 ($3) exceed its capex forecast, resulting in lower-than Total Rainbow $138 $125 $128 $140 $2 $15 $12 expected UFCF            MSG 96 41 NA 49 (47) 8 NA Corporate & Other (59) (115) NA (104) (44) 11 NA 3 Overall, subscriber growth and Total Company $1,074 $894 $936 $934 ($140) $40 ($2) penetration exceeded
Management’s initial Subscriber Metrics Comparison expectations yet failed to meet (Subs in thousands) 2006 Subscribers            Difference its revised projections following a strong 3rd quarter Business            Budget 3Q FYF            Research            Actual            Budget 3Q FYF            Research 3 Cablevision 4Q ‘06 results Homes Passed 4,515 4,560 4,545 4,562 47 2 17 came in in line or above Basic Video 3,088 3,137 3,138 3,127 39 (10) (11) research expectations in every Digital Video 2,263 2,475 2,486 2,447 184 (28) (39) area except subscriber            High-Speed Data 1,984 2,044 2,049 2,039 55 (5) (10)  projections            Telephony 1,195 1,218 1,222 1,214 19 (4) (8) Total RGUs 8,529 8,874 8,896 8,827 298 (47) (69)

 


 

Cablevision Analyst Commentary Bank of America 3 “Although some investors were apparently disappointed by the RGU guidance, we think it reflects an inevitable slowdown as            February 27, 2007 Cablevision’s penetration in some products approaches saturation and, as mentioned, it was higher than our prior estimate.” Pali Research 3 “We believe that the Dolans could now offer at least $33 per share fo r CVC , increasing substantially if they choose to wait until February 27, 2007 2008.” Wachovia 3 “We believe Cablevision is demonstrating that the cable busines s model works. ” February 27, 2007 3 "Falling capex for Cablevision should help alleviate some of the capex strain over outp erform Comcast.” 3 “We continue to believe that Cablevision faces a slower growth outlook than its cable peers as a result of: (1) Its industry high service Credit Suisse penetration levels for video, broadband, and voice; and (2) Higher exposure to Verizon’s fiber builds” February 27, 2007 3 "CVC posted the opposite of CMCSA’s results — slowing sub growth but moderating capex , which should drive a spike in FCF.” 3 “In the CVC markets where Verizon’s FiOS has launched, CVC noticed a 5.5% decrease in basic penetration , but a 2.5% increase            Oppenheimer            data penetration and a 10% increase in VoIP penetration, all of which suggests a higher CVC Triple Play penetration ” February 27, 2007 3 “We continue to think that either the national cable networks (AMC/IFC/WE) and/or the Regional Sports Networks could be sold” Morgan Stanley 3 “We continue to believe that increased investor concerns over RGU growth could p ressure the stock , especially if VZ is able to February 28, 2007 demonstrate positive FiOS progress early” 3 “While Cablevision has the best demographics and most tigh tly clustered cable assets of any MSO , the company has already Deutsche Bank achieved industry-leading penetration rates for digital, HSD, digital phone service, and thus should grow slower than Comcast over February 28, 2007 next several years. Additionally, Cablevision has the most overlap with Verizon of any MSO and Verizon is aggressively building out FiOS product within Cablevision’s footprint, currently passing 850,000 of Cablevision’s 4.6 million homes.” 3 “Despite decelerating growth and LT competitive uncertainty, CVC’s ‘07 financial outlook remains among (if not) the best available Bear Stearns U.S. cable operators. We view this, combined with favorable leverage, ra pid FCF growth, potential asset sales, and potential for February 28, 2007 bid (at some point) as reasons to buy.” Cathay Financial 3 “In the event CVC divests its stake in Rainbow Media, we expect the proceeds to be returned to shareholde rs, either via another            February 28, 2007 special dividend or through a buyback” 3 “With the rejection of the Dolans’ $30 offer, we do not believe a competitive bid will emerge for Cablevision’s cable assets in the Jefferies & Co. term. Looking into 2007, Cablevision will face greater competitive pressure from Verizon and fundamentals could falter . As a February 28, 2007 we believe Cablevision’s core businesses will exhibit strength in 2007, but we question the sustainabil ity of their momentum” 3 “We are encouraged that even with slower RGU growth, Cablevision should still be able to grow cable revenue and EBITDA in the Goldman Sachs            mid-teens in 2007. Additionally, given a lower rate of RGU net additio ns (and thus lower variable capex), an infrastructure th at is February 28, 2007 built for digital switched video throughout its footprint, and a mix shift towards higher return, higher margin voice and broadband net additions, we believe that FCF and returns for CVC should impr ove significantly in 2007

 


 

Cablevision Research Analysts’ Price Targets Wall Street Research Price Targets and Ratings Pre-Offer Current Price Target Institution Analyst Date Rating Target Date Rating Target M ethodology Bank of America Shapiro 9/29/2006 Buy $26.00 2/27/2007 Hold $31.00 Expect that recent Dolan bid is close to final price they are willing Based on competitive outlook/industry EBITDA multip les and Bear Stearns Goldberg 9/21/2006 Buy $26.00 2/28/2007 Buy $33.50 another bid Cathay Financial Baker 9/22/2006 Hold $22.00 2/28/2007 Buy $31.00 Based on 8.5x EBITDA multiple for cable and 11.0x for Rainbo w Citigroup Bazinet 9/21/2006 Buy $28.00 3/13/2007 Hold $25.00 Median of DCF valuation range, FiOS competitive risk Credit Suisse Kraft 9/27/2006 Hold $23.00 3/9/2007 Hold $29.00 Compariso n to peer multiples, potential competitive threats Deutsche Bank Mitchelson 10/2/2006 Buy $31.00 3/13/2007 Buy $37.00 Media n of DCF valuation range Goldman Sachs Topcuoglu 9/21/2006 Hold $23.00 3/13/2007 Hold $31.00 Medi an of DCF valuation range Jefferies Routh 9/26/2006 Buy $26.00 2/28/2007 Buy $33.00 Based on E V / EBITDA multiples Kaufman Bros. Mitchell 7/3/2006 Hold $24.00 2/28/2007 Hold $30.00 Near t erm competitive bid unlikely, value based on DCF an d SOTP Lehman Brothers Jayant 8/9/2006 Hold $24.50 — — — N/A
Merrill Lynch Cohen 9/25/2006 Hold $25.00 3/5/2007 Buy $41.00 DCF valuat ion Weighted average of possible outcomes, including LB O, strategic Morgan Stanley Bilotti/Swinburne 8/9/2006 Hold $22.29 (1) 3/13/2007 Sell $32.00 and competitive base/downside cases Oppenheimer Eagan 9/22/2006 Buy — 2/27/2007 Buy $34.00 SOTP valuation . Ownership change is “just a matter of time” Pali Greenfield — — — 2/27/2007 Buy $33.50 Increasing takeov er speculation, potential for large special dividen Prudential Styponias 8/8/2006 Hold $21.00 2/27/2007 Hold $28.00 10-ye ar DCF valuation UBS Bourkoff 9/21/2006 Hold $27.00 3/14/2007 Hold $31.00 Downs ide limited by prospect of return of capital to sha reholders Wachovia Wlodarczak 8/8/2006 Buy $27.00 2/27/2007 Buy $37.00 Median of DCF valuation range High $31.00 $41.00
Mean $25.25 $32.31 Median $25.50 $31.50 Low $21.00 $25.00 Source: Wall Street research. 1. Represents fair market value per share estimated by the analyst, although “price target” not provided.

 


 

Comparison of Cablevision’s Cable Operations to Peers Cablevision is #1 relative to publicly traded cable MSO peer group (1): 3 Basic Sub Penetration 3 Total ARPU 3 Digital Sub Penetration 3 Capex / Revenue 3 HSD Sub Penetration 3 (EBITDA — Capex) Growth 3 Telephony Sub Penetration Basic Sub. Penetration (%) Digital Sub. Penetration (%) HSD Sub. Penetration (%) Telephony Sub. Penetration (%) Mediacom 49% Mediacom38% Mediacom42% Mediacom8% Charter 46% Charter52% Charter44% Charter8% Time Warner Cable 51% Time Warner Cable54% Time Warner Cable51% Time Warner Cable15% Comcast 51% Comcast52% Comcast48% Comcast10% CVC 69% CVC 78% CVC 65% CVC Total ARPU ($) EBITDA CAGR ‘06-10 (%) ‘07 Capex / Revenue (%) EBITDA — Capex CAGR ‘06-10 (%) Mediacom $67 Mediacom 8% Mediacom 16% Mediacom 14% Charter $83 Charter 11% Charter 20% Charter Time Warner Cable $92 Time Warner Cable 13% Time Warner Cable 21% Time Warner Cable Comcast $91 Comcast 12% Comcast 19% Comcast CVC $110 CVC Research 9% CVC Research 14% CVC Research CVC Mgmt. 11% CVC Mgmt. 12% CVC Mgmt. Source: CVC Management Plan and Wall Street research. 1. Figures are for 2006A. CVC statistics shown for Cable segment only (i.e. exclude Lightpath). Time Warner and Comcast figures pro forma for Adelphia acquisition, cable swaps and dissolution of the Kansas/Texas partnerships.

 


 

Comcast 4Q Overview 3 Following its 4Q ‘06 earnings announcement on February 1, 2007, Comcast traded down 3.2% 3 Comcast’s revenue and EBITDA growth in 2007 is expected to accelerate requiring incremental capex spending Comcast Cable-Only Wall Street Research Projections Pre — 4Q Earnings            Post — 4Q Earnings            Difference Research Consensus Cable Metrics 2006E 2007E 2008E 2006A 2007E 2008E 3 4Q RGU results were strong drove overall increase in cable Subscribers (‘000s) 24,118 24,229 24,391 24,161 24,371 24,438 44 142 47projections Revenue and EBITDA guidance RGUs 50,673 56,846 62,923 50,821 57,319 63,624 148 473 702 increased slightly reflecting Revenue ($M) $26,185 $29,150 $32,497 $26,339 $29,744 $33,330 $154 $594 $833 growth and less ARPU erosion despite reduced margins, EBITDA 10,475 12,056 13,692 10,511 12,085 13,798 36 29 106 attributable to content division Capex 4,486 4,481 4,399 4,640 5,702 5,599 154 1,221 1,200 Capex guidance came in $1B higher than expected, depressing EBITDA-Capex 5,989 7,575 9,293 5,871 6,383 8,199 (118) (1,192) (1,093) FCF in the near-term, but viewed necessary for long-term growth Wall Street Analyst Price Targets (1) and Commentary Pre — 4Q Earnings Post — 4Q Earnings Rating Target Rating Target Commentary 3 “CMCSA’s valuation and fundamentals remain more attractive than DBS operators Bear Stearns 3 “Comcast’s 2007 capex guidance is reasonable and is primarily being driven by Hold $22.50 Buy $29.50 Spencer Wang RGU growth and investments in commercial services , the acquired cable and other initiatives.” “We see the capex increase as good news , a reflection of an even greater-than- Deutsche Bank expected acceleration in subscriber, revenue and EBITDA grow th.” Buy $31 Buy $34 Doug Mitchelson 3 “Comcast has greater growth prospects ...than downside from the RBOCs launching competing video services.” Lehman Brothers 3 “Expect stock to trade modestly down on below-consensus FCF expectations Hold $28 Hold $29 Vijay Jayant to above-consensus capex), offset by continued strong RGU growth .” Merrill Lynch 3 “Comcast will continue to leverage its triple-play offe r to gain subscribers as it Buy $30 Buy $38 Jessica Reif Cohen upgrades the acquired systems to Comcast service levels.” Source: Wall Street Research Estimates. 1. Price targets have been adjusted to reflect Comcast’s 3-for-2 split on February 22, 2007.

 


 

Time Warner 4Q Overview 3 Following its 4Q ‘06 earnings announcement on February 28, 2007, Time Warner Cable traded up 2.5%, on raise d expectations for revenue and EBITDA growth over the next few years Time Warner Cable Wall Street Research Projections Pre — 4Q Earnings            Post — 4Q Earnings            Difference Research Consensus Cable Metrics 2006E 2007E 2008E 2006A 2007E 2008E Basic sub losses attributable to and Dallas markets primarily due Subscribers (‘000s) 13,51813,586 13,654 13,40213,469 13,604 (116) (117) (50) ongoing integration issues RGUs 29,47631,871 33,910 29,52732,110 34,345 51 239 435 associated with acquired Adelphia systems Revenue ($M) $14,730 $16,132 $17,302 $14,756 $16,324 $18,026 $26 $193 $724 3 Revenue and EBITDA guidance EBITDA 5,100 5,809 6,558 5,152 5,831 6,718 52 22 160 increased slightly due to the expectation that ARPU and Capex 2,694 3,150 3,093 2,718 3,489 3,254 24 339 161 gaps between legacy systems Adelphia systems will narrow in EBITDA-Capex 2,406 2,659 3,465 2,434 2,342 3,465 28 (318) (1) next few years Wall Street Analyst Price Targets (1) and Commentary Post — 4Q Earnings Rating Target            Commentary 3 "Margin expansion was the result of higher revenue and lower than expected...expenses. Currently, the margins Bear Stearns            newly-acquired systems are lagging those of legacy systems by ~10%” and “ ARPU of $101 at the legacy systems is Hold $41 approximately $17 higher than those of the acquired systems.” Spencer Wang 3 “We do believe that these ARPU and margin gaps will narrow over time as cost controls and higher ARPUs take hold 3 “We remain firmly bullish on cable sector prospects as upside from consumer and commercial telecom services, an Deutsche Bank strong growth in advanced video services, outweighs likel y video share losses to new RBOC entrants. For TWC, we al Buy $46 Doug Mitchelson see a $1b EBITDA opportunity in the recently acquired pro perties , bringing them up to TWC levels. Lastly, TWC enjoys an advantaged tax position given the recent acquisitions were asset deals .” 3 “We estimate approximately 130 basis points of TWC 2007 -11 projected EBITDA growth is driven by the Adelphia            Merrill Lynch            acquisition. However, the Adelphia transaction does include significant execution risk as the company seeks to Buy $45 ssica Reif Cohen            narrow the EBITDA margin gap between the acquired s ystems (28%) and historical TWC (38%)and stabilize subscriber base.” 3 “We believe that TWC will demonstrate industry leading EBITDA growth            over the next 3 years as it improves the Morgan Stanley Hold $45 ARPU and profitability levels at the recently acqui red Adelphia systems . However, legacy TWC systems have Benjamin Swinburne begun to show decelerating YoY broadband net additions and VoIP has started to show maturity.” Source: Wall Street Research Estimates. 1. Since TWC did not start officially trading on the NYSE until March 1, 2007, there are no pre-4Q Price Targets or Ratings.

 


 

Verizon 4Q FiOS Results 3 Verizon reported earnings on January 29, 2007 and announced that FiOS Video Homes Passed and subscribers for 2006 exceeded estimates with increased activity occurring in 4Q ‘06 3 Ended 2006 with an average FiOS data penetration of 14% and average FiOS video penetration of 9% of “Hom            es Open for Sale” FiOS Data Subscribers FiOS Video Subscribers (Subscribers in thousands) (Subscribers in thousands) 725 687 207 175 522 VZ 375 Estimate(1) 118 VZ Estimate (1) 264 2055 1Q ‘06A2Q ‘06A 3Q ‘06A4Q ‘06E 4Q ‘06A Homes 1Q ‘06A2Q ‘06A3Q ‘06A4Q ‘06E 4Q ‘06A Open for 2.6M3.1M 3.8M5.0M4.8M413K 692K 1.2M 1.8M 2.4M Sale 10.2%12.1% 13.7%14.5% 14.3% Penetration 4.8%7.9% 9.8%9.7% 8.6% Wall Street Analyst Commentary Bear Stearns 3 "[CVC shares] offer compelling levered exposure to high quality, free-cash-flow generating cable asset            s in the top market in the country. Bryan Goldberg VZ FiOS overbuilds create uncertainty, but we believe this uncertainty is mostly longer-term in nature and priced into shares.” on by Citigroup “FiOS deployments are now large enough to impinge upon Cablevision’s operating metrics during 2007. We belie ve FiOS could cause Jason Bazinet            Cablevision’s fundamental performance to deteriorate materially in 2007 .” Bear Stearns 3 “FiOS data adds of 165K fell short of our expectations, but a late quarter increase of video homes open for            sale helped propel 89K video additions during the quarter...We expect the company to aggressively deploy video throughout 2007and believe pending franchise legislation in Mike McCormack multiple states could help expedite the company’s offering.” Citigroup 3 “We believe the company is showing some strong incremental penetration rates , although we would not be surprised to see the current level of Michael Rollins momentum during the 2H/06 ease in ‘07 as the company covers a larger territory and continues to be weighed down by installation times .” Lehman Brothers 3 “Importantly, FiOS is fueling growth in consumer ARPU, which increased 3.6% yoy to $53.60. Verizon passed a total of 6M homes at YE06, and anticipates achieving 9M by year end 2007. We believe this segment will become a significant contributor of top line growth as FiOS Thomas Seitz achieves high penetration and broader market deployment.” Morgan Stanley 3 "The FiOS product is working, but we remain concerned that deployment is too slow to blunt cable telephony in many markets, and that th            e Simon Flannery            returns are questionable.” 1. Per Verizon press conference on FiOS on Sept. 27, 2006.

 


 

Comcast / Time Warner Cable Price Targets Comcast Research Price Targets and Ratings (1) Price            Implied Forward Multiple Firm            Date            Target            Rating            Methodology 2007E Bear Stearns 3/1/2007 $29.50 Buy            DCF Valuation 9.4x Bernstein 3/13/2007 $32.00 Buy SOTP; Target of 9.0x ‘07 cable EBITDA multiple 10.1x 8.8x CIBC 2/22/2007 $33.00 Buy Target of 10.0x 2008 EBITDA 10.4x Deutsche Bank 3/13/2007 $34.00 Buy DCF Valuation 10.6x Lehman Brothers 3/12/2007 $29.00 Hold DCF Valuation and SOTP 9.3x Merrill Lynch 2/27/2007 $38.00 Buy SOTP; Target of 10.5 x ‘07 cable EBITDA multiple 11.7x 10.3x Morgan Stanley 3/13/2007 NA Hold DCF Valuation NA Prudential 2/22/2007 $38.00 Buy 10-year DCF Valuation 11.7x RBC 2/22/2007 $30.00Hold 5-year DCF Valuation 9.5x UBS 3/14/2007 $34.00 Buy            DCF Valuation 10.6x Mean $33.83 10.4x Time Warner Research Price Targets and Ratings Price            Implied Forward Multiple Firm            Date            Target Rating Methodology 2007E Bear Stearns 3/2/2007 $41.00 Hold DCF Valuation 9.9x Bernstein 3/13/2007 $46.00 Buy 9.0x ‘07 cable EBITDA mu ltiple w/ adj. for NPV of NOLs 10.8x 9.4x Deutsche Bank 3/13/2007 $46.00 Buy DCF Valuation 10.8x Goldman Sachs 3/13/2007 $44.00 Hold DCF and multiple an alyses 10.5x Merrill Lynch 3/13/2007 $45.00 Buy DCF Valuation & Targ et multiple of 10.0x ‘07 EBITDA multiple 10.7x 9.2x Morgan Stanley 3/13/2007 $45.00 Hold DCF Valuation and FCF multiple analysis 10.7x 9.2x UBS 3/14/2007 $48.00 Buy DCF Valuation 11.2x Median $45.00 10.7x 1. Price targets from Comcast research reports dated pre 2/22/07 have been adjusted for 3-for-2 stock split. 2. Implied forward multiples calculated using research price targets and assumes same capital structure.

 


 

Cablevision Shareholders Largest Institutional Shareholders Institutional Owner Breakdown (12/31/06) (millions) 9/30/2006 Current % Change Investor Name            Position            Position      % O/S Since 9/30/06 Style Value ClearBridge Advisors (Citigroup) 32.5 32.1 10.8% (0.1%) GARP 17.4% GAMCO Investors, Inc. 18.819.5 6.5% 0.2% GARP Franklin Mutual Advisers, LLC 6.0 7.1 2.4% 0.4% Deep Value 36.6% GARP Barclays Global Investors, NA5.6 5.7 1.9% 0.0% Index Other 10.1% Vanguard Group, Inc.5.55.7 1.9% 0.1% Index Harris Associates L.P. 5.8 5.4 1.8% (0.1%) Core Value Comcast Corporation 14.5 5.1 1.7% (3.1%) 11.4% Index J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. (New York) 6.2 5.1 1.7% (0.4%) GARP Wellington Management Company, L.L.P. 4.7 4.7 1.6% (0.0 %) Core Value 10.1% 14.4% Marsico Capital Management, L.L.C. 5.5 4.5 1.5% (0.3%) Core Growth Growth Capital Guardian Trust Co. 4.8 4.4 1.5% (0.1%) GARP Hedge Fund Citigroup Investment Research (US) 4.1 4.3 1.5% 0.1% Broker-Dealer Marathon Asset Management LLP 4.0 4.2 1.4% 0.1% Core Value Institutional Owner Breakdown (9/30/06) TCS Capital Management, L.L.C. 4.2 4.1 1.4% (0.0%) Hedge Fund Anchor Capital Advisors LLC 3.9 3.9 1.3% (0.0%) Deep Value RiverSource Investments, LLC 5.7 3.8 1.3% (0.7%) Core Growth Value Renaissance Technologies Corp. 0.8 3.6 1.2% 0.9% Hedge Fund 21.1% Wells Capital Management Inc. 3.5 3.4 1.1% (0.0%) Core Value State Street Global Advisors (U.S.) 3.1 3.0 1.0% (0.0%) Index Fidelity Management & Research (US) 2.9 2.9 1.0% 0.0% GARP 39.8% Other D. E. Shaw & Co., L.P. 0.3 2.9 1.0% 0.9% Hedge Fund 8.7% Eubel Brady & Suttman Asset Management, Inc. 3.1 2.7 0.9% (0.1%) Core Value Enhanced Investment Technologies Inc. 0.9 2.5 0.8% 0.5% Core Growth Index 11.0% New Jersey Division of Investment 2.1 2.1 0.7% 0.0% Core Growth Deutsche Asset Management Americas 2.1 2.1 0.7% 0.0% Index 7.3% 12.1% Growth Hedge Fund Source: Thomson Financial Group.

 


 

Special Dividend Alternative ($in millions, except per share values) Special Dividend Scenarios (Dividend per Share) Special Dividend / share            Status Quo $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 Shares Oustanding 298.2 298.2 298.2 298.2 Size of Special Dividend $1,491 $2,982 $4,472 $5,963 Debt $11,564 $13,055 $14,545 $16,036 $17,527 Cash 432 432 432 432 432 Net Debt $11,132 $12,622 $14,113 $15,604 $17,095 Leverage Statistics            Metric Total Debt / Adj. LTM EBITDA $1,905 6.1x 6.9x 7.6x 8.4x 9 Total Debt / Adj. LQA EBITDA $2,030 5.7x 6.4x 7.2x 7.9x 8 Net Debt / Adj. LTM EBITDA $1,905 5.8x 6.6x 7.4x 8.2x 9.0 Net Debt / Adj. LQA EBITDA $2,030 5.5x 6.2x 7.0x 7.7x 8.4

 


 

Share Repurchase Alternative ($in millions, except per share values) Share Buyback — Dolan Family Group NOT Participating Buyback Capacity            Status Quo $1,500 $3,000 $4,500 $6,000 Assumed Fees 8 15 2330 Size of Buyback Program $1,493 $2,985 $4,478 $5,970 Current Shares Outstanding 298.2 298.2 298.2 298.2 298.2 Dolan Family Group Shares (1) 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1 Non-DFG Shares Outstanding 228.0 228.0 228.0 228.0 228.0 Share Buyback Price (3/23/07) $30.25 $31.76 $33.28 $34.79 $36.30 Premium to Current Market 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Total Shares Bought 47.0 89.7 128.7 164.5 % of Basic Shares Outstanding 16% 30% 43%55% % of Non-DFG Shares 21% 39% 56%72% Multiple of ADTV 2.2 21.7x 41.4x 59.4x75.9x DFG Economic Ownership 23.5% 27.9% 33.6% 41.4% DFG Voting Ownership (2)73.7% 78.0% 82.2% 86.6% Debt $11,564 $13,064 $14,564 $16,064 $17,564 Cash 432 432 432 432 432 Net Debt $11,132 $12,632 $14,132 $15,632 $17,132 Leverage Statistics Metric Total Debt / Adj. LTM EBITDA $1,905 6.1x 6.9x 7.6x 8.4x 9 Total Debt / Adj. LQA EBITDA $2,030 5.7x 6.4x 7.2x 7.9x 8 Net Debt / Adj. LTM EBITDA $1,905 5.8x 6.6x 7.4x 8.2x 9.0 Net Debt / Adj. LQA EBITDA $2,030 5.5x 6.2x 7.0x 7.7x 8.4 1. Assumes Dolan Family Group shares of ~70.1mm including 63.3mm Class B shares per Company filings. 2. Dolan Family Group Class B shares receive 10 votes per share whereas remaining Class A shares receive 1 vote per share.

 


 

CVC Consolidated Preliminary DCF — Management Plan 3 A DCF valuation of CVC CVC Consolidated Unlevered Free Cash Flow — Management Plan Consolidated based on the Management Plan results ($in millions) 2006A 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E in a value per share of Revenue $5,927 $6,714 $7,479 $8,219 $8,958 $9,659 $39-$50 % Change 14.6% 13.3% 11.4% 9.9% 9.0% 7.8% - Implied multiple of 10- AOCF $1,820 $2,178 $2,547 $2,858 $3,216 $3,519 12x ‘07E EBITDA (-) Depreciation and Amortization (993) (975) (902) (84 3)(775) Operating Income (EBIT) 828 1,203 1,646 2,016 2,441 2,761 3 Key assumptions: (-) Taxes on Operating Income (331) (481) (658) (806) (976) (1,104) - Exit multiple range of            Unlevered Net Income 497 722 987 1,209 1,4651,657 7.5-8.5x forward (+) Depreciation & Amortization 993 975 902 843 775 758 EBITDA (-) Capital Expenditures(886) (697) (643) (621) (588) (582) (+/-) Changes in Working Capital (17) (252) (132) (122) (72) - Weighted average cost Unlevered Operating Free Cash Flow $586 $747 $1,113 $1, 309$1,581 $ of capital of 8.5-9.5% - Net debt of $11.1 bn at year-end 2006 (incl. Preliminary Valuation special dividend liability) Enterprise ValuePrice Per Share - Minority interest in Fox            Terminal Multiple            Terminal Multiple Sports Bay Area and            Rate $24,436 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x Rate $44 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x NY Interconnect valued            Discount 8.5% $23,712 $24,950 $26,188 Discount 8.5% $42 $46 $50 at ~$256mm; equity 9.0% $23,226 $24,436 $25,646 9.0% $40 $44 $49 stake in Fox Sports 9.5% $22,753 $23,935 $25,118 9.5% $39 $43 $47 New England valued at ~ $208mm(1) Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate Implied Multiple of 2007 EBITDA - Assumes 298.2mm Terminal Multiple Terminal Multiple            shares outstanding Rate 3.1% 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x Rate 11.1 x 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x Discount Discount 8.5% 2.3% 2.6% 3.0% 8.5% 10.8 x 11.4 x 11.9 x 9.0% 2.7% 3.1% 3.4% 9.0% 10.6 x 11.1 x 11.7 x 9.5% 3.2% 3.6% 3.9% 9.5% 10.4 x 10.9 x 11.4 x 1. Valuation of Regional Sports derived from Comcast offer for these stakes. Minority interest in NY Interconnect valued at 8.5x 2007 AOCF.

 


 

CVC Consolidated Preliminary DCF — Wall Street Case 3 A DCF valuation of CVC CVC Consolidated Unlevered Free Cash Flow — Wall Stree t Case Consolidated based on the Wall Street projections ($in millions) 2006A 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E results in a value per Revenue $5,927 $6,600 $7,142 $7,527 $7,779 $7,931 share for this business of % Change 14.6% 11.3% 8.2% 5.4% 3.4%2.0% $20 — $29 AOCF$1,820 $2,131 $2,385 $2,570 $2,717 $2,630 - Implied multiple of 8- (-) Depreciation and Amortization (993) (1,198) (1,078 ) (983) (893) (886) 9x ‘07E EBITDA            Operating Income (EBIT) 828 933 1,307 1,587 1,824 1,744 (-) Taxes on Operating Income (331) (373) (523) (635) (730) (698) 3 Other valuation Unlevered Net Income 497 560 784 952 1,094 1,046 assumptions similar to (+) Depreciation & Amortization 993 1,198 1,078 983 893 8 Management Case (-) Capital Expenditures (886) (741) (748) (711) (645) (658) (+/-) Changes in Working Capital (17) (142) (72) (55) (2 4) Unlevered Operating Free Cash Flow $586 $875 $1,043 $1, 169 $1,318 $ Preliminary Valuation Enterprise Value Price Per Share Terminal Multiple            Terminal Multiple Rate $18,4627.5x 8.0x 8.5x Rate $24 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x Discount 8.5% $17,948 $18,839 $19,731 Discount 8.5% $23 $26 $29 9.0% $17,591 $18,462 $19,334 9.0% $22 $24 $27 9.5% $17,243 $18,095 $18,947 9.5% $20 $23 $26 Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate Implied Multiple of 2007 EBITDA Terminal MultipleTerminal Multiple Rate 3.0% 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x Rate 8.6 x 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x Discount Discount 8.5% 2.2% 2.5% 2.9% 8.5% 8.3 x 8.8 x 9.2 x 9.0% 2.6% 3.0% 3.3% 9.0% 8.2 x 8.6 x 9.0 x 9.5% 3.1% 3.5% 3.8% 9.5% 8.0 x 8.4 x 8.8 x

 


 

LBO Analysis 3 Dolan Family Group rollover equity Dolan Family Group Sources & Uses ($33 Per Share) contribution represents ~10% of estimated total capitalization Sources Amount % Total Uses Amount - Represents significantly lower New Debt $11,699 55.3% 5.8 x Equity Purchase Price $9,56 equity contribution than Existing Debt Rolled 6,571 31.0% 3.2 x Purchase of Restricted Stock 271 precedent LBO transactions Total Debt $18,270 86.3% 9.0 x ok Transaction Fees & Expenses 203 - Median equity contribution of 26% for large (i.e. $10Bn+) Rolled Family Equity 2,026 9.6% Total Existing Debt 11, LBOs completed in the last 2 Other New Capital (2) 878 4.1% years Total Capitalization $21,174 100.0% 3 Using a typical LBO equity contribution of ~20-25% equity Excess Cash 432 implies stock prices between $39-$44 and achieves high IRRs Total Sources $21,606 ok Total Uses $21,606 Equity Contribution for Conventional LBO Structure — Implied 5-Year IRRs LBOs >$10Bn Median Contribution % Equity Implied Other New2011 Forward Exit Multiple            of 26% Cushion Offer Price (2) 7.5 x 8.0 x 8.5 x 40 Capital Required 14% $33 $878 34% 38% 41% 30 17% $36 $1,544 27% 31% 34% 20% $39 $2,199 25% 29% 31% 20 25% $44 $3,408 18% 21% 24% 10 30% $50 $4,790 12% 15% 18% HCA BAA K. Morgan Freescale TDC Hertz Wind Tel Univision SunGard VNU GMAC 1. Based on 4Q-06 LQA AOCF of $2,030, adjusted for non-recurring charges totaling $113mm associated with corpora te G&A for special dividend, options investigation, debt compliance and privatization process, settlement with Larry Brown and player write offs at the Knicks. 2. Represents new capital necessary to address differences between Dolan Family Group advisors’ assumptions for share count , existing debt and cash at the end of 2006 and the 200 6 actual numbers as reported, well as any other equity necessary to fund a new per share offer in excess of $30. New capital was treated as new eq uity for purposes of LBO returns analysis.