6-K 1 investorpreso20231108.htm investorpreso20231108
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
_________________
FORM 6-K
REPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE
 
ISSUER
PURSUANT TO RULE 13a-16 OR 15d-16 UNDER
THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
Date: November 8, 2023
UBS Group AG
(Registrant's Name)
Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland
(Address of principal executive office)
Commission File Number: 1-36764
UBS AG
(Registrant's Name)
Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland
Aeschenvorstadt 1, 4051 Basel, Switzerland
 
(Address of principal executive offices)
Commission File Number: 1-15060
 
Credit Suisse AG
(Registrant's Name)
Paradeplatz 8, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland
(Address of principal executive office)
Commission File Number: 1-33434
Indicate by check mark whether the registrants file or will file annual
 
reports under cover of Form
20-F or Form 40-
F.
Form 20-F
 
 
Form 40-F
 
This Form 6-K consists of the transcripts of the 3Q23 Earnings call remarks
 
and Analyst Q&A, which
appear immediately following this page.
 
1
Third quarter 2023 results
 
7 November 2023
Speeches by
Sergio P.
 
Ermotti
, Group Chief Executive Officer,
 
and
Todd
 
Tuckner
,
Group Chief Financial
 
Officer
Including analyst
 
Q&A session
Transcript.
Numbers for slides refer to the third quarter 2023 results presentation.
 
Materials and a webcast
replay are available at
www.ubs.com/investors
 
Sergio P.
 
Ermotti
Slide 3 – 3Q23 key achievements
Thank you, Sarah and good morning, everyone. During the third quarter and as
 
we speak, we continue to see
an evolution
 
of the
 
macroeconomic outlook
 
with opinions,
 
forecasts and
 
markets changing
 
at a
 
very rapid
 
pace.
In addition, we
 
witnessed an
 
even further deterioration
 
of the geopolitical
 
landscape as a
 
result of tragic
 
events
in the Middle East. Our
 
thoughts are with those who
 
are suffering and have been
 
impacted by this violence,
 
as
well as our affected employees.
 
While we
 
have been
 
very busy
 
executing on
 
our integration
 
plans, our
 
top priority
 
is always
 
to stay
 
close to
clients, helping them protect their assets
 
and position their portfolios and businesses for future
 
opportunities.
 
Our wealth
 
management clients
 
remain cautious
 
and defensively
 
positioned.
 
And while
 
some of
 
our institutional
clients are taking advantage of short-term opportunities,
 
many still remain on the sidelines.
Our
 
consistent
 
dedication
 
continues
 
to
 
be
 
rewarded
 
by
 
their
 
confidence
 
and
 
trust
 
in
 
UBS.
 
This
 
was
demonstrated by
 
another
 
quarter
 
of
 
strong
 
flows
 
across
 
GWM
 
and
 
P&C.
 
In
 
the
 
third
 
quarter,
 
the
 
first
 
full
quarter since the acquisition, we made strong progress and delivered underlying
 
profitability.
 
With respect to the
 
integration of Credit Suisse,
 
we continue to be encouraged
 
by our achievements to
 
date in
both our planning and execution.
 
In terms of
 
the lessons learned from
 
the events in
 
March, we welcome the
 
recent reports issued
 
by the Basel
Committee
 
on
 
Banking
 
Supervision,
 
the
 
Financial
 
Stability
 
Board
 
and
 
the
 
Swiss
 
Expert
 
Group
 
on
 
Banking
Stability.
 
Their findings
 
confirmed our
 
view that
 
the crisis
 
was not
 
a
 
result
 
of
 
insufficient
 
capital or
 
liquidity
requirements.
 
Rather,
 
the reports
 
emphasized sustainable
 
business models,
 
risk-adjusted profitability,
 
and importantly,
 
the
critical role
 
of robust
 
risk management
 
cultures and
 
effective governance.
 
We take
 
comfort in
 
these conclusions,
as they
 
have been
 
and remain
 
core principles of
 
UBS. Today,
 
we are
 
positioning UBS to
 
be an
 
even stronger
and safer global financial institution. It is for this reason that we remain confident the acquisition will allow us
to deliver significant
 
value for all
 
of our stakeholders,
 
notwithstanding potential
 
macroeconomic or geopolitical
challenges.
 
 
 
2
Slide 4 – Strong progress amid challenging market conditions
Briefly summarizing
 
our results
 
this quarter. Our
 
strong underlying
 
performance
 
was driven
 
by positive
 
operating
leverage
 
at
 
the
 
Group
 
level.
 
GWM,
 
P&C
 
and
 
Asset
 
Management
 
all
 
delivered
 
underlying
 
PBT
 
growth.
 
IB
performance was
 
impacted by
 
market conditions
 
that were unfavorable
 
to our business
 
model and
 
investments
we expect to be accretive in future quarters.
 
Our capital
 
position remained
 
strong with
 
a CET1
 
ratio of
 
14.4% and
 
total loss-absorbing
 
capacity of
 
nearly
200 billion. We achieved
 
this result while
 
incurring 2 billion in integration-related
 
expenses and making good
progress running down non-core assets.
 
Despite our reported loss
 
in the quarter, we incurred over 500
 
million in tax expense,
 
and paid over 200
 
million
in cash taxes in Switzerland.
Slide 5 – Delivering on integration priorities
Our confidence
 
in the
 
ability to
 
successfully integrate
 
Credit
 
Suisse and
 
create substantial
 
long-term value
 
is
supported by the strong progress we made in the third quarter.
 
We have now stabilized Credit Suisse and continued to grow our franchise through new client
 
acquisition and
share-of-wallet gains.
 
In addition,
 
our client
 
retention and
 
win-back strategy
 
is working.
 
Net new
 
money in
GWM was 22 billion and our strong deposit momentum
 
continued through the quarter.
 
The 33 billion in net
 
new deposits across GWM
 
and P&C also supported
 
our ability to reduce quarterly
 
funding
costs by 450 million through
 
the repayment of the Public
 
Liquidity Backstop and the
 
ELA+
 
that we announced
in August.
We are pleased to see
 
strong demand for UBS
 
debt in the
 
wholesale markets with
 
transactions priced at
 
similar
levels to where UBS paper stood before the rescue of Credit Suisse.
We have finalized the perimeter of Non-core and Legacy,
 
and our efforts to actively unwind positions resulted
in a capital release of around 1 billion.
 
Lastly,
 
we continued to
 
execute our plans to
 
reduce costs in
 
Non-core and Legacy,
 
restructure Credit
 
Suisse’s
Investment Bank and remove duplications across our operations.
 
We have already delivered around 3 billion in
annualized exit-rate gross cost savings. We expect to make
 
further progress in the fourth quarter.
 
Slide 6 - Client trust and confidence demonstrated
 
by strong flows in GWM and P&C
Slide 6
 
summarizes well
 
how quickly
 
we have
 
stabilized Credit
 
Suisse, and
 
the confidence
 
of clients
 
in UBS.
Credit Suisse
 
Wealth Management’s quarterly
 
net new money
 
has now
 
turned positive for
 
the first time
 
in a
year and a half,
 
with 3 billion in
 
the third quarter.
 
UBS Wealth Management’s 18
 
billion in net new
 
money is
the second highest third-quarter result in over a decade.
 
In addition, it
 
was satisfying to
 
see that our
 
efforts to win
 
back client assets
 
resulted in 22
 
billion in net
 
new
deposits from Credit Suisse clients across GWM and P&C.
 
Following our decision to
 
integrate Credit Suisse Schweiz,
 
we reached out to our clients
 
to re-assure them that
we remain committed
 
to delivering
 
the best
 
capabilities of
 
both institutions.
 
In addition, we
 
reiterated that
 
their
credit limits across both banks will remain in place.
 
To
 
date, client
 
reactions have
 
been broadly
 
constructive and
 
net new
 
deposits in
 
P&C were
 
positive in
 
both
Personal
 
and Corporate
 
banking client
 
segments. We
 
are
 
particularly pleased
 
that this
 
was also
 
the case
 
in
September, the month following our decision to integrate both franchises.
 
 
 
3
Slide 7 – Accelerating the run-down of Non-core and
 
Legacy assets
In Non-core and Legacy,
 
we also made strong progress this quarter.
 
80% of the sequential reduction in NCL’s
credit
 
and
 
market
 
risk
 
risk
 
weighted
 
assets
 
was
 
driven
 
by
 
actively
 
running down
 
positions,
 
executed above
marks. Non-operational risk weighted assets
 
have now been
 
reduced by nearly one-third
 
since 1Q23 and the
expected natural run-off profile has improved by 3 billion.
While we
 
have some
 
credit risk
 
exposure in
 
certain local
 
emerging markets
 
and other
 
more complicated
 
bilateral
positions
 
that
 
resulted
 
in
 
CLEs
 
this
 
quarter,
 
the
 
key
 
risks
 
across
 
the
 
portfolio
 
are
 
well
 
understood,
 
actively
managed and in most cases, well hedged.
 
The
 
majority
 
of
 
our
 
credit
 
risk
 
exposure
 
is
 
with
 
high-quality
 
borrowers.
 
Over
 
75%
 
of
 
the
 
exposure
 
is
 
rated
investment grade.
 
This provides
 
us with
 
the comfort
 
to continue
 
to pursue
 
our strategy
 
to accelerate
 
the disposal
of
 
these
 
assets
 
in
 
a
 
way
 
that
 
optimizes
 
value
 
for
 
our
 
shareholders,
 
while
 
also
 
protecting
 
our
 
clients
 
and
counterparties.
 
The finalized
 
perimeter of
 
Non-core and
 
Legacy contains
 
30 billion
 
in operational
 
risk weighted
 
assets. As
 
a
function of the natural decay across the portfolio, we expect
 
a reduction of around 50% by the
 
end of 2026.
Todd
 
will take you through this in more detail.
Slide 8 – Integration planning and execution well
 
underway
 
Returning to the integration, let me reiterate that
 
the complexity is not just from
 
managing two G-SIFI banks.
Our
 
immediate
 
priority
 
since
 
the
 
transaction
 
was
 
announced
 
and
 
closed
 
had
 
to
 
be
 
on
 
stabilizing
 
and
restructuring Credit Suisse. This will continue to be the case
 
until the early part of 2024.
At the same
 
time, we are
 
executing on our integration
 
plans at pace, and
 
on the left
 
side of slide
 
8, you can
see
 
a
 
selection
 
of
 
our
 
recent
 
achievements.
 
Notably,
 
we
 
have
 
established
 
management responsibilities
 
and
operating models across business divisions and
 
legal entities, including in our Swiss franchise.
 
You
 
can also see some of our key priorities through the end of this year and beyond. This includes the merger
of
 
our
 
significant
 
legal
 
entities,
 
client
 
migrations
 
across
 
all
 
of
 
our
 
business
 
divisions
 
and
 
executing
 
on
 
our
technology decommissioning plans.
 
Last but
 
not least,
 
we are
 
also working
 
toward finalizing
 
our 3-year
 
strategic plan,
 
which we
 
will present
 
in
early February.
 
 
4
Slide 9 – Working towards ~15% RoCET1
As we continue
 
to progress our plan,
 
the main focus
 
has been on
 
delivering synergies for
 
the combined Group.
We remain confident that the
 
2026 goals that we presented last
 
quarter are achievable. But, as |
 
said then, it
will not be a straight-line journey.
 
We are pleased that the first phase of gross cost savings has already been executed in 2023. But I am sure we
all
 
appreciate
 
the
 
significant costs
 
associated with
 
running and
 
combining two
 
G-SIFIs,
 
one
 
of
 
which is
 
still
structurally unprofitable.
 
From an operational standpoint of
 
view, it
 
is clear that 2024 will
 
be a pivotal year.
 
Completing the merger of
our significant legal entities before the end of next year is a critical step to enable us to unlock the next phase
of our cost, capital and funding synergies,
 
which we expect to realize in 2025 and 2026.
Our enhanced scale, leading client franchises and increased future earnings power will position us for growth.
Disciplined execution
 
will continue
 
to be an
 
important driver
 
for our
 
performance and
 
we are on
 
track to
 
deliver
on our plans.
 
We are optimistic
 
about our future
 
as we build
 
an even stronger
 
and safer
 
version of the
 
UBS that
was called
 
upon to
 
stabilize the
 
financial system
 
in March, and
 
one that
 
all of
 
our key
 
stakeholders can
 
be proud
of.
With that, I hand over to Todd.
 
5
Todd
 
Tuckner
Slide 11 – Update on reporting charges
Thank you and good morning everyone. As
 
Sergio highlighted, we are executing on
 
our plans at pace. In
 
our
first
 
full
 
quarter
 
since
 
the
 
Credit
 
Suisse
 
acquisition, we’ve
 
delivered
 
underlying
 
profitability
 
and
 
maintained
strong client momentum with impressive net new money inflows in Global Wealth Management and net new
deposit growth in our Swiss franchise.
 
We
 
also made
 
substantial progress
 
in de-risking
 
our Non-core
 
and Legacy
 
portfolio, reinforcing
 
our balance
sheet for all seasons.
Before I move on to discussing details of our financial performance, let me describe the reporting changes we
implemented this quarter and the ones we
 
expect to introduce soon.
Today,
 
for
 
the
 
first
 
time
 
we’re
 
presenting
 
the
 
results
 
of
 
our
 
performance
 
segments
 
on
 
a
 
combined
 
basis,
reflecting
 
the
 
way we’re
 
managing our
 
businesses and
 
engaging with
 
clients. In
 
addition
 
to Global
 
Wealth
Management,
 
Personal
 
&
 
Corporate
 
Banking,
 
Asset
 
Management
 
and
 
the
 
Investment
 
Bank,
 
we
 
are
 
now
separately
 
reporting
 
Non-Core
 
and
 
Legacy
 
as
 
well
 
as
 
Group
 
Items,
 
all
 
of
 
which
 
reflect
 
the
 
combined
performance of UBS and Credit Suisse under IFRS and
 
in US dollars.
 
As
 
I
 
said
 
during
 
the
 
second
 
quarter
 
earnings call,
 
our
 
aim
 
is
 
to
 
be
 
clear
 
and
 
forthcoming in
 
explaining the
financial reporting
 
of this
 
complex transaction.
 
Therefore,
 
we’ve introduced
 
underlying performance
 
metrics
that primarily strip out the PPA
 
-related pull-to-par effects from revenues
 
in our core businesses and
 
adjust for
integration-related expenses across all performance segments.
 
Regarding the pull-to-par
 
effects in NCL,
 
in the quarter
 
we reclassified most
 
of the positions
 
that Credit Suisse’s
Investment Bank and
 
Capital Release Unit
 
historically accounted for
 
on an
 
accrual basis to
 
fair value
 
through
P&L, as those positions in NCL are now held for sale. As a reminder, those positions gave rise to the 3.1 billion
in future NCL pull-to-par revenues that we flagged last quarter.
 
Given that NCL generates revenues in various
ways, whether from early
 
unwinds of positions and other
 
disposals, mark-to-market on its fair
 
value book, or
from pull-to-par effects,
 
we don’t distinguish
 
among the various
 
accounting classification types. Accordingly,
in the quarter
 
and going forward,
 
all sources of
 
NCL income,
 
gain or
 
loss will be
 
treated as part
 
of its underlying
performance.
 
As
 
last
 
quarter’s
 
disclosed IFRS
 
results
 
reflect
 
only
 
one
 
month
 
of
 
Credit
 
Suisse’s operating
 
performance, to
improve comparability, we’ve prepared estimated underlying results that
 
reflect all three months of the second
quarter. As I go
 
through my
 
remarks, unless
 
otherwise stated,
 
I will
 
compare our
 
underlying third
 
quarter results
sequentially to this
 
estimated performance in
 
the prior quarter.
 
We’ll focus
 
on sequential developments
 
until
the third quarter of 2024, when we’ll resume
 
year-over-year commentary.
Now, on to
 
our planned changes. In the fourth quarter we will expand
 
our Global Wealth Management asset
flows disclosure and enhance comparability
 
with US peers. We
 
will report net new
 
money plus dividends and
interest, as well as disclose net new fee generating assets for the combined franchise. We intend to introduce
a growth
 
target for
 
net new
 
money,
 
plus dividends
 
and interest,
 
when we
 
present our
 
integration KPIs
 
and
targets as part of our fourth quarter results early next
 
year.
 
Additionally, starting from
 
the first
 
quarter of
 
2024, we
 
expect to
 
push out
 
to our
 
business divisions
 
substantially
all balance sheet and P&L
 
items that were previously retained centrally
 
in Group Items. The only exceptions
 
will
be for group
 
items that are
 
not directly
 
attributable to divisional activities,
 
including deferred tax
 
assets, cash
flow hedges, own
 
credit and
 
their associated P&L
 
effects. Our
 
business division equity
 
attribution framework
will also
 
reflect these
 
changes
 
whereby the
 
average levels
 
of equity
 
across the
 
business divisions
 
will more
 
closely
align to our current Group capital targets.
 
 
 
6
Slide 12 – 3Q23 underlying PBT of 0.8bn, higher
 
revenues and lower costs QoQ
Moving on
 
to our
 
financial performance
 
on Slide
 
12. The
 
quarterly profit
 
before tax
 
was 844
 
million, a
 
1.4
billion
 
increase
 
from
 
the
 
second
 
quarter as
 
we
 
delivered
 
strong
 
positive
 
operating
 
leverage
 
with
 
0.6
 
billion
higher revenues and 0.5 billion lower operating expenses.
 
Additionally, CLE
 
declined by 0.4 billion sequentially to 0.3 billion,
 
which mainly related to Credit
 
Suisse loans
within P&C and NCL,
 
which I cover later in
 
more detail. By comparison,
 
CLE in the second
 
quarter of 0.7 billion
included more
 
than 0.5
 
billion of
 
charges primarily
 
related to
 
the take-on
 
recognition of
 
ECL allowances
 
on
Credit Suisse’s lending portfolios.
On a
 
reported basis,
 
the third
 
quarter net
 
loss was
 
785 million,
 
as 526
 
million in
 
tax expense
 
arising in
 
profitable
entities, could not
 
be offset by tax
 
benefits from losses
 
primarily generated by
 
certain Credit Suisse
 
subsidiaries.
We expect our
 
effective tax rate to
 
remain elevated until
 
we merge and restructure
 
our most significant legal
entities. After that time, the effective tax rate should
 
gradually return to a level below 25%,
 
absent the effects
of any remeasurement of deferred tax assets.
Slide 13 – 3Q23 underlying total revenues 10.7bn, up
 
6% QoQ
Moving to Slide 13. Revenues
 
increased by 6% this quarter
 
to 10.7 billion driven by
 
lower funding costs within
Group
 
Items and
 
gains in
 
Non-Core
 
and Legacy
 
as the
 
team accelerated
 
the unwind
 
of certain
 
positions at
attractive prices relative to book values.
Revenues in
 
Group Items
 
increased sequentially
 
primarily due
 
to the
 
reduction of
 
around 450
 
million in
 
centrally-
held funding
 
costs from
 
the Credit
 
Suisse-related liquidity
 
measures that
 
were repaid and
 
returned in
 
the middle
of the third quarter. For the fourth quarter we expect an additional
 
100 million benefit from these actions.
 
It is
worth noting that the cost of replacement funding
 
is being absorbed by the core businesses
 
and is reflected in
their sequential NII performance and guidance
 
this quarter.
 
Total
 
revenues reached 11.7 billion, including 958 million that we’ve stripped out of underlying revenues. This
amount
 
consisted
 
of
 
764
 
million
 
in
 
pull-to-par
 
effects
 
as
 
well
 
as
 
194
 
million
 
of
 
NII
 
in
 
our
 
core
 
businesses
benefitting from the
 
merger date elimination
 
of the unrealized
 
loss balance
 
associated with
 
Credit Suisse’s cash
flow hedge program.
 
Slide 14 – Pull to par overview and revenue recognition
On Slide
 
14 we
 
show the
 
details of
 
pull-to-par and
 
similar effects
 
that we
 
expect to
 
recognize in
 
future quarters.
The pull-to-par starting balance as of transaction close was 9.3 billion, excluding the 3.1 billion reclassification
in NCL that I described earlier. Considering the pull-to-par accretion of 1.1 billion recognized since the merger
date, including 0.8 billion
 
this quarter, the remaining balance that will
 
accrete into income over
 
future quarters
is expected to be around 8.2 billion.
 
We expect the
 
majority of this balance
 
to accrete into
 
income by the
 
end of 2026,
 
barring the impact of
 
any
early
 
unwinds, with
 
500
 
million
 
expected next
 
quarter.
 
We
 
also
 
expect
 
to
 
recognize
 
around
 
900
 
million of
additional NII in GWM
 
and P&C relating to
 
the eliminated cash flow hedge
 
item I mentioned a
 
few moments
ago, with 150 million expected in 4Q.
 
As a
 
reminder,
 
these effects
 
are stripped
 
out of
 
our underlying
 
revenues with
 
about half
 
being CET1
 
capital
accretive. I would
 
also point out
 
that we continue
 
to expect total
 
pull-to-par revenues, including
 
the reclassified
NCL and
 
post-2026 recognized portions,
 
to broadly
 
offset the
 
costs to
 
achieve the greater
 
than 10
 
billion in
gross savings we
 
described last
 
quarter. Having said this,
 
like in the
 
third quarter, we expect there
 
will be timing
mismatches in
 
the recognition
 
of these
 
reported revenues and
 
expenses, resulting
 
in headwinds
 
to our reported
results, particularly in the fourth quarter and throughout
 
2024.
 
 
7
Slide 15 – 3Q23 underlying operating expenses 9.6bn,
 
down 5% QoQ
Moving to Slide 15. Operating expenses for the
 
Group decreased to 9.6
 
billion, down 5% as our cost
 
savings
initiatives take effect, partially offset by reinvestments to help grow our
 
core businesses.
 
Progress
 
on
 
our
 
restructuring
 
actions
 
led
 
to
 
2
 
billion
 
in
 
integration-related
 
expenses.
 
Roughly
 
half
 
of
 
these
expenses was related
 
to personnel costs,
 
including severance payments, salaries of
 
employees fully dedicated
to integration matters, and
 
the costs of
 
retaining key personnel. The
 
other half was related
 
to non-personnel
matters, including
 
real estate
 
impairments and
 
depreciation, onerous
 
contract charges,
 
and consulting
 
and legal
fees.
 
For the fourth
 
quarter, we expect integration-related
 
expenses in excess
 
of 1 billion,
 
although certain
 
additional
costs to achieve may arise if we see opportunities
 
to accelerate savings.
 
While we
 
manage our
 
integration to
 
achieve overall
 
cost reductions without
 
specific headcount
 
targets, I would
note that our combined workforce
 
fell by over 4
 
thousand in the quarter,
 
bringing year-to-date reductions to
13 thousand, or down 9% versus the workforce of both banks as of the end of 2022. Across our cost-savings
initiatives, we’ve achieved around 3 billion
 
to date in gross run-rate
 
cost saves with further progress
 
expected
in the fourth quarter.
Slide 16 – Diversifying sources of funding and maintaining
 
a strong liquidity position
Turning to Slide 16.
 
In the quarter
 
we maintained a
 
strong capital position
 
with around 200
 
billion of TLAC
 
and
a CET1 capital
 
ratio of
 
14.4% mainly
 
as we
 
reduced RWA from
 
the active
 
run-down in
 
our NCL
 
portfolio, which
offset reductions in
 
our CET1 capital in the
 
quarter.
 
Our CET1 leverage ratio increased
 
to 4.9% at the
 
end of
the quarter.
 
As we previously
 
guided, we
 
expect to
 
maintain a
 
CET1 capital ratio
 
of around 14%
 
throughout the
 
integration
timeline, even if our reported performance over the coming quarters remains affected by the costs of winding
down the NCL unit and the work needed to
 
achieve cost synergies in our core businesses.
 
During the quarter we issued
 
4.5 billion of US
 
dollar TLAC attracting very strong
 
demand, and pricing at pre-
acquisition spreads,
 
in a
 
clear sign
 
of fixed
 
income investor
 
confidence in
 
our name.
 
To
 
further diversify
 
our
sources
 
of funding,
 
we successfully
 
placed 3
 
billion in
 
SEC-registered
 
OpCo and,
 
just after
 
the quarter,
 
820
million Swiss francs in UBS’s inaugural Swiss
 
covered bond issue, both attractively priced.
Regarding liquidity, we maintained a prudent profile in the quarter with an LCR of nearly 200%, supported
 
by
33
 
billion
 
in
 
total
 
deposit
 
inflows.
 
I
 
would
 
note
 
that
 
these
 
strong
 
deposit
 
inflows
 
across
 
Global
 
Wealth
Management and Personal & Corporate Banking
 
increased our overall deposit coverage ratio.
Going forward, we expect
 
to continue to operate
 
with a prudent LCR
 
to comply with the
 
revisions to the Swiss
Liquidity Ordinance that will come into effect on January
 
1, 2024.
Regarding
 
the Swiss
 
National Bank’s
 
recently announced
 
changes to
 
its
 
minimum reserve
 
requirements
 
and
sight deposit remuneration policies that take effect next month, we expect an annualized
 
reduction of around
80 million Swiss francs to our NII, of which
 
two-thirds will impact P&C and one-third GWM.
 
 
8
Slide 17 – Global Wealth Management
Turning
 
to
 
the
 
performance
 
in
 
our
 
businesses,
 
beginning
 
on
 
slide
 
17.
 
In
 
Global
 
Wealth
 
Management
 
we
continued strong momentum with 22 billion in net new money inflows across all
 
regions. We saw particularly
strong inflows in both APAC and EMEA, with
 
13 and 8 billion
 
in net new money, respectively. Importantly,
 
our
Credit Suisse Wealth
 
Management business
 
attracted quarterly
 
net inflows
 
for the
 
first time
 
since the
 
beginning
of 2022. In
 
the quarter,
 
we also attracted 25
 
billion of net new
 
deposits, including 17 billion from
 
the Credit
Suisse wealth side.
 
These impressive flows
 
are a true testament
 
to the trust
 
our clients continue
 
to place in us.
 
They also reflect the
success of our clear and decisive
 
win-back, retention, and client-acquisition
 
actions, as well as intensified client
engagement levels
 
since the
 
deal’s completion.
 
We
 
expect to
 
further build
 
on this
 
momentum as
 
the value
proposition of
 
the combined
 
firm becomes
 
more tangible
 
to our
 
clients. For
 
instance, all
 
of our
 
clients now
 
have
access to the UBS House View from our CIO,
 
and our wealth management product and solution offerings are
being unified and aligned across the platforms.
 
As mentioned, from next quarter
 
we will report net new
 
money plus dividends and
 
interest, as well as net new
fee generating
 
assets for
 
the combined
 
franchise. In
 
the third
 
quarter,
 
inflows based
 
on this
 
new definition
were 39
 
billion, and net
 
new fee generating
 
assets in solely
 
the UBS portion
 
of our wealth
 
business were 21
billion, with positive flows across all regions.
 
Moving on
 
to GWM’s
 
P&L. Profit before
 
tax was
 
1.1 billion,
 
over 40%
 
higher sequentially, driven by
 
a reduction
in costs
 
and credit
 
loss expenses
 
with roughly
 
flat revenues.
 
Excluding the
 
impact of
 
CLE,
 
which included
 
a
significant acquisition-related ECL charge last
 
quarter,
 
underlying profit before
 
tax increased by around
 
20%,
supported by lower underlying operating expenses.
 
This quarter
 
GWM revenues
 
of 5.5
 
billion were
 
broadly flat
 
as increases
 
in recurring
 
fees were
 
offset by
 
a decline
in
 
NII.
 
Combined
 
net
 
interest
 
income
 
was
 
down
 
3%,
 
on
 
an
 
underlying
 
basis
 
and
 
excluding
 
FX,
 
reflecting
continued deposit
 
mix effects
 
due to rotation
 
into higher-yielding
 
deposits, and
 
ongoing deleveraging.
 
This was
partially offset by sequentially higher deposit balances that serve to close
 
the funding gap in the business and
strengthen
 
the
 
structural
 
profile
 
of
 
our
 
balance
 
sheet.
 
For
 
the
 
fourth
 
quarter
 
we
 
expect
 
a
 
mid-single-digit
percentage decline in NII mainly from continuing deposit
 
mix shifts.
 
Credit loss expenses in the quarter across GWM were 2 million.
 
Operating expenses declined by 0.2 billion
 
to 4.4 billion mainly driven by
 
lower personnel expenses as reduced
headcount levels, which we expect to continue
 
sequentially, began to benefit our underlying earnings.
 
Although
 
it’s
 
early
 
days
 
in
 
terms
 
of
 
synergy
 
realization
 
in
 
GWM,
 
we
 
are
 
already
 
seeing
 
progress
 
from
 
our
integration
 
efforts.
 
The
 
division’s
 
underlying
 
cost/income
 
ratio
 
in
 
the
 
third
 
quarter
 
dropped
 
by
 
around
 
3
percentage points to 80%.
Slide 18 – Personal & Corporate Banking (CHF)
Turning
 
to Personal & Corporate
 
Banking on slide 18.
 
Profit before
 
tax increased by
 
0.1 billion to 773
 
million
Swiss
 
francs,
 
mainly driven
 
by
 
a
 
decrease
 
in
 
credit
 
loss
 
expenses.
 
Excluding
 
CLE,
 
P&C’s
 
PBT
 
was
 
up
 
slightly
quarter on quarter.
 
 
 
9
Revenues increased to 2.2 billion.
 
With the announcement of the Swiss integration at
 
the end of August, the
business is
 
highly focused
 
on client
 
engagement and
 
deposit win-back.
 
Early indications
 
are
 
encouraging as
evidenced by
 
the stability
 
of the
 
revenue line,
 
the resilience
 
of business
 
volume and
 
the commencement
 
of
deposit returns.
Net interest income decreased by 4%
 
despite the narrowing funding
 
gap from net new deposit inflows,
 
which
mainly came
 
from our
 
corporate clients.
 
A primary
 
driver
 
of the
 
sequential decline
 
this quarter
 
was the
 
additional
cost of restoring the structural funding profile of the combined
 
business to UBS’s NSFR standards.
For the fourth quarter,
 
we expect a low single digit
 
percentage decline in NII mainly due
 
to rotation to higher
yielding deposits.
Credit loss expense in
 
the quarter was 154
 
million Swiss francs almost exclusively
 
from two factors
 
related to
Credit Suisse’s
 
Swiss Bank.
 
First, we
 
recognized CLE
 
on [Edit:
 
for credit-impaired]
 
loans, mainly
 
to corporate
counterparties that were already impaired on the merger date and deteriorated further this quarter, as well as
newly defaulted
 
positions. Second,
 
we moved
 
to Stage
 
2, and
 
provisioned in
 
line with
 
UBS’s coverage
 
ratio
standards, all loans including those as of the merger date on Credit
 
Suisse’s watchlist as well as those lending
exposures that experienced a significant increase in credit risk during
 
the third quarter.
Underlying
 
operating
 
expenses
 
were
 
roughly
 
unchanged
 
at
 
1.2
 
billion
 
on
 
lower
 
personnel
 
and
 
litigation
expenses, with the underlying cost/income
 
ratio down quarter on quarter to 57%.
Slide 19 – Asset Management
Moving to slide 19. In
 
Asset Management the underlying profit before
 
tax increased to 156 million
 
on higher
revenues and lower costs.
 
Revenues were slightly higher
 
at 755 million, with
 
increases in net management
 
fees
driven by market performance and FX, and higher
 
performance fees from our hedge fund businesses.
Operating expenses decreased to 599 million mainly
 
due to lower personnel expenses.
Net new money in the quarter
 
was negative 1 billion driven by
 
Credit Suisse outflows, which continue to
 
taper
since the
 
acquisition, with inflows
 
expected to
 
gradually return
 
from proactive
 
client engagement. It’s
 
worth
noting
 
that
 
the
 
UBS
 
side
 
of
 
the
 
business
 
attracted
 
net
 
new
 
money
 
inflows
 
this
 
quarter
 
in
 
a
 
challenging
environment for
 
asset managers.
 
We saw strong
 
demand for
 
our Money
 
Market, SMA
 
and Real Estate
 
& Private
Markets solutions, partly offset by client asset allocation shifts away from China, Equities, and Hedge Funds in
the current market dynamic.
Net new money excluding money markets
 
and associates was negative 8.3 billion.
Slide 20 – Investment Bank
Turning
 
to the
 
Investment Bank
 
performance on slide
 
20. Since
 
the UBS
 
IB has
 
taken on
 
only select
 
parts of
Credit Suisse’s investment bank and the latter saw little activity in the second quarter,
 
we compare the results
of the combined IB with standalone performance
 
in the prior year’s third quarter.
We will continue to offer year-over-year comparisons to standalone UBS IB performance in the quarters ahead
while also providing commentary
 
on sequential developments
 
until the third quarter
 
of 2024, as with
 
the other
business divisions.
 
The operating
 
loss of
 
116 million
 
was a
 
result of
 
additional costs
 
related to
 
the retained
 
portion of
 
Credit Suisse’s
Investment Bank, which
 
was only partially
 
offset by standalone
 
profit before tax
 
in UBS IB,
 
as market conditions
remain challenging for our business model.
 
10
Underlying revenues, which exclude
 
251 million of pull-to-par
 
accretion and other
 
effects, declined 6%
 
year-
over-year to 1.9 billion
 
amid muted client activity due to ongoing concerns around terminal interest
 
rates and
geopolitical events.
 
Volatility
 
across
 
asset classes
 
declined significantly
 
from a
 
year ago
 
and global
 
fee pools
remained depressed.
Against this
 
backdrop, Global
 
Banking revenues
 
increased 36%
 
with particular
 
strength in
 
leveraged capital
markets
 
and
 
strong
 
performance
 
in
 
EMEA.
 
Advisory
 
outperformed
 
the
 
global
 
fee
 
pool,
 
and
 
was
 
further
supported by revenues from the heritage Credit Suisse franchise.
Global Markets
 
revenues declined
 
15% from a
 
very strong
 
third quarter, reflecting lower
 
revenues across
 
macro
products
 
and equity
 
derivatives. This
 
was partly
 
offset by
 
growth in
 
Financing supported
 
by increased
 
client
balances.
 
Overall, revenues generated from the retained portion of Credit Suisse’s investment
 
bank were 113 [edit: 131]
million this quarter, primarily in Advisory as well as Derivatives and Solutions.
 
Operating expenses rose 27%, predominantly from additional personnel costs related to the retained portions
of Credit Suisse’s Investment Bank, as well as higher
 
technology costs and FX.
As we manage the Investment Bank integration, we remain disciplined in
 
our resource management. RWAs at
23% of the Group’s resources excluding NCL were roughly unchanged sequentially.
Looking ahead, as the majority
 
of the onboarding of our colleagues
 
and positions to UBS IB
 
systems is planned
for completion
 
by the
 
end of
 
the year,
 
we expect
 
revenues
 
to ramp
 
up over
 
the course
 
of 2024.
 
Given this
timing,
 
in
 
addition
 
to
 
current
 
market
 
conditions
 
and
 
seasonality,
 
we
 
expect
 
continued
 
pressure
 
on
 
our
underlying profitability in the fourth quarter.
 
Slide 21 – Non-core and Legacy
 
Moving
 
to
 
Non-Core
 
and
 
Legacy
 
on
 
Slide
 
21.
 
Excluding
 
integration-related
 
expenses,
 
NCL
 
generated
 
an
underlying operating loss of 1 billion.
 
Quarterly revenues of 350 million consisted mainly of gains from the early unwind
 
of loan commitments while
the portion of
 
the NCL portfolio
 
that remains on
 
the accrual method
 
of accounting was
 
left broadly unchanged
this quarter given recovery expectations on the underlying
 
lending positions.
Credit loss expense
 
was 125
 
million. Additional
 
provisions of
 
71 million
 
reflect application
 
of the
 
same extended
credit
 
watchlist approach
 
I described
 
earlier in
 
the context
 
of P&C.
 
We
 
also saw
 
54 million
 
of charges
 
from
Stage 3 and purchased credit-impaired loans that deteriorated further
 
in the quarter.
 
Underlying operating expenses
 
reached 1.2 billion, split roughly
 
equally between personnel
 
and non-personnel
costs. Integration-related
 
expenses of
 
918
 
million consisted
 
of
 
onerous
 
contract charges,
 
real
 
estate-related
expenses, and personnel costs linked to headcount
 
reductions and retention.
 
For the fourth
 
quarter,
 
we expect the
 
underlying cost base in
 
Non-Core and Legacy
 
to decrease further
 
from
additional staff reductions whose costs are directly housed within, or allocated
 
to, NCL.
 
As Sergio mentioned, in
 
the quarter we took
 
decisive actions to reduce
 
RWAs. 5 of the total 6
 
billion reduction
resulted from active de-risking of exposures across the array of NCL portfolios. LRD was reduced by 52 billion,
including 15 billion
 
resulting from lower HQLA
 
requirements and 12 billion
 
from the accounting
 
reclassification
of loan commitments from accrual to fair value.
 
11
During the
 
quarter,
 
we completed
 
the initial
 
impact assessment
 
on our
 
operational risk
 
RWA
 
from the
 
final
Basel 3 standard, which comes into effect on January 1, 2025. Based on this initial
 
study, we expect Group op
risk RWA to remain broadly unchanged at the current level of 145 billion.
 
We also
 
determined on
 
the basis of
 
our impact
 
assessment initial levels
 
of RWA
 
to apportion
 
to each
 
of our
business divisions,
 
including NCL.
 
The 30
 
billion of
 
operational risk
 
RWA assigned
 
to NCL
 
this quarter
 
is expected
to diminish over time as a function of two considerations: the run-down of the NCL portfolio and the removal
of certain legacy litigation matters given the
 
lapse of time. On the basis of natural roll-off in both contexts,
 
we
expect operational risk RWA in NCL to decrease to around 14 billion by the
 
end of 2026.
As a reminder, we continue to expect a roughly 5% increase from day-1 effects in 2025 from other final Basel
3 considerations, mainly FRTB.
Slide 22 – On track to deliver on our integration
 
goals
As we look ahead
 
to the fourth quarter,
 
we expect many of the
 
drivers of underlying profitability to continue
to progress.
 
In particular, we
 
expect underlying
 
operating
 
expenses to
 
decline sequentially
 
as our
 
core businesses
realize incremental synergies,
 
and NCL remains
 
focused on actively
 
running down its
 
portfolio to release capital
and accelerate cost saves.
 
In addition
 
to the
 
NII expectations
 
that I
 
described earlier,
 
transactional activity
 
may be
 
affected by
 
seasonal
factors as well as client sentiment in response to the
 
geopolitical landscape.
 
Despite these elements, we are executing on our integration plans at pace and remain on track to achieve our
goals of around a 15% return on CET1 capital and a
 
cost/income ratio of less than 70% by the end
 
of 2026.
 
With that, let’s open for questions.
12
Analyst Q&A (CEO
 
and CFO)
Stefan Stalmann, Autonomous Research
Yes. Good morning, gentlemen. Thank you very much for the presentation. I have
 
two questions and they
may be linked. The first regarding the outstanding SNB
 
funding. I don't think there's any update in the
disclosure material on where the number has moved to.
 
I think the last disclosed number was CHF 38
 
billion
at the end of August. Could you provide an update
 
here?
And possibly related to this, it looks to me looking at
 
SNB data that there has not been a lot further reduction
of SNB funding after August, in September. Is that a good interpretation of the data? And is
 
there any
connection here between your management of the
 
SNB funding and the new Liquidity Ordinance
 
that has
come into play – that will come into place
 
in January? And is it possible for you to
 
give us a guidance on how
your liquidity ratios will look like on the 1st of
 
January under this new Liquidity Ordinance in Switzerland,
please? Thank you.
Todd
 
Tuckner
Hi, Stefan. Thanks for your questions. So,
 
in terms of the outstanding SNB funding, no,
 
it's – we still have the
– that funding levels are still unchanged at this
 
stage. We are working through our business plans and as well
as our funding plans. And we'll consider
 
the ability to repay some or all of that over the course
 
of the coming
months, but your read was correct.
In connection with that funding and the Liq.
 
Ordinance, no. I'd say there's no specific connection with
 
that.
And we're not maintaining that funding, particularly
 
in respect of satisfying the Liquidity Ordinance per se.
That said, the LCR guidance that you're looking for, as we say, will remain prudent. So you can expect it to
remain at levels not terribly far away from where we finished 3Q
 
at.
Stefan Stalmann, Autonomous Research
Great that’s very helpful, thank you.
Giulia Miotto, Morgan Stanley
Yes. Hi. Good morning. Two
 
questions from me. The first one on capital
 
distribution. I know it's very early and
I guess you will comment on
 
Q4, but what are the stepping stones
 
that we should look out for
 
before you can
resume a buyback? That's my first question.
And then, the second question is with respect to costs. In the quarter, there was an excellent delivery on costs
and the USD 3 billion target by year
 
end has already been achieved. So basically,
 
where do we go from
 
here?
Can we assume that this steady path of cost saves
 
can continue? Or will there kind of be a pause until there
 
is
the legal merger because you have already basically extracted as much as you could of
 
the low hanging fruit?
Thank you.
Sergio P.
 
Ermotti
Okay. Thank you. So in respect of the capital distribution plan or capital return plans, as you
 
pointed out,
you're going to have to be patient. You know, is for the time being I just can reiterate that we are still looking
to have a progressive cash dividend policy that will be implemented.
 
And for the rest, you need to have –
what you need to see is the visibility with
 
the plan. So we are finalizing the three-year plan and that will allow
us to really calibrate capital returns.
13
I just want to reiterate, I still believe at this stage, although
 
the plan is not finished, that capital returns
 
and
share buybacks is not a matter of years. In my point of
 
view, it could be a matter of quarters. But without
having the final plan, it's difficult to really make a final
 
statement. But that will be addressed in February.
And somehow, it's linked to your second question because, of
 
course, I'm not so sure, I would define the
progress we've made so far as low hanging fruit. But I
 
think that it takes efforts and time to go through this.
 
I
do believe that we still have costs that can be
 
taken out during 2024, regardless of what you are pointing out
being the critical issue is the legal entity merger. The legal entity merger is the triggering
 
point that allow us
to go to the next level of cost reduction and synergy
 
realizations from an operational standpoint of view, but
also from an IT stand point of view.
So 2024, as Todd
 
mentioned, is the – and I also remarked, is
 
a pivotal year,
 
is probably the one time in which
we're going to incur the most costs in order to achieve the synergies that we'll achieve in 2025 and 2026. So,
you see how the two questions are somehow linked.
Giulia Miotto, Morgan Stanley
Thank you.
Andrew Coombs, Citigroup
Good morning. Two questions from me, please. Firstly, on the GWM net interest income trajectory. Thank
you for the commentary in your prepared remarks. I think you said after
 
a 3% decline in Q3, you expected
mid-single-digit percentage decline in Q4 and that
 
there's an ongoing deposit mix shift. So that
 
seems to be
accelerating rather than decelerating. So can
 
you give us any indication of how much
 
longer you think that
trend could continue for? Do you think now that
 
we're at peak rates, if anything, that should slow
 
as we go
into 2024? And also, if there's any implications from your
 
broader deposit pricing that's also influencing that
sequential NII decline. That's the first
 
question.
Second question, there's
 
been quite a
 
lot of media
 
commentary over the past
 
week ahead of
 
the Too
 
Big To
Fail
 
review
 
coming
 
out
 
in
 
spring
 
next
 
year.
 
I
 
think
 
there's
 
been
 
some
 
explicit
 
discussion
 
around
 
potentially
introducing more exit fees or more notice periods around deposits. So, anything
 
you could say with regards to
that and also what that means for your competitive
 
positioning versus international peers?
 
Thank you.
Todd
 
Tuckner
Yeah. Thanks, Andrew.
 
On the first in terms of GWM NII trajectory, I think you captured it right in terms of
guidance around a mid-single digit decline owing to
 
deposit mix shifts and whether that
 
seems like an
acceleration. I'd comment that I think what we're seeing
 
is a bit of a broadening of that dynamic more across
the globe.
We saw in most of 2023 that dynamic being very significantly
 
driven by moves from sweep deposits into
higher yielding deposits in the US. And we
 
saw less of that in Europe and APAC, as well as in Switzerland.
And so while we're seeing the US taper now, both in the current quarter and as we
 
look ahead, we're seeing
a bit of an expansion of that dynamic in other
 
parts of the globe, and that's what's
 
sort of driving that.
As I look out into 2024, we're doing
 
that work now. We'll come back with a view during
 
February with a view
on full year 2024. I would just conclude on the point saying, no,
 
I don't see pricing having an impact. I mean,
this is just a
 
response to the current
 
rate environment as clients
 
are undergoing cash sorting
 
across our client
base.
14
Sergio P.
 
Ermotti
So in respect of what you mentioned and changes
 
in the law or regulations around liquidity. I think I can only
say that it's pretty difficult to track all the rumors, speculations and
 
ideas that are coming up, almost daily.
On the Swiss media, I think that I can only tell you that, that at this stage what stands
 
is that even the Finance
Minister took an official stance
 
on the matter. I mean, those are speculations. I don't
 
believe this is going to
 
be
part of the package. I think that - I'm convinced that Switzerland will keep its standards in terms of allowing
 
or responding to the crisis in March, not only the one in Switzerland, but broadly speaking,
 
with following the
recommendation
 
that
 
it
 
will
 
be
 
set
 
by
 
the
 
FSB
 
and
 
other
 
bodies.
 
And
 
in
 
that
 
sense,
 
I
 
don't
 
see
 
us
 
being
particularly disadvantaged
 
compared to
 
any other
 
jurisdictions in
 
terms of
 
a Liquidity
 
Ordinance. So,
 
I guess
that we will
 
follow up
 
and I
 
think it's
 
going to
 
still take
 
months and
 
months before
 
the full
 
analysis of what
happened will translate into concrete actions.
Adam Terelak, Mediobanca
Good morning. Thanks for the
 
questions. I had a one big picture question on revenues and
 
then a follow-up
on the operational risk RWA. Big picture, your revenues at the minute are annualizing
 
to low-40 billions or so.
Clearly, your target has a number,
 
which is probably USD 50 billion-plus. Just want
 
to understand how you
see the revenue bridge from here through to 2027 and what the key moving
 
parts should be, particularly in
the context of some of your GWM trends, which
 
at the minute seem to be down before we go back
 
up.
And then, secondly, on operational risk, I
 
just want to understand
 
some of the assumptions
 
that are going into
your Basel IV
 
guidance there. Clearly there's
 
some uncertainty around ILM.
 
There's a bit
 
of uncertainty about
what losses
 
to use
 
in
 
that standardized
 
calculation. So
 
what losses
 
from
 
the Credit
 
Suisse
 
business are
 
you
having to
 
carry forward
 
and how
 
does that
 
impact your
 
operational risk
 
RWA? And then,
 
finally, can I just
 
clarify
on the Basel 3.1 finalization guidance, is that
 
5% ex. any moves in operational risk? Thank
 
you.
Sergio P.
 
Ermotti
Thank you, Adam. So in terms of revenues, I'm not
 
so sure we ever indicated that we have a USD
 
50 billion
plus revenue. I don't know where this figure is coming from. What
 
I remember saying back in August is that
our targets, our ambitions for 2026 are not based on
 
blue sky scenarios on revenues. So, if anything, I guided
to the contrary of that.
So we are definitely focused on costs and we are definitely
 
also focusing on the denominator. So we need to
basically focus on managing and utilizing in a better
 
way the resources and the risk-weighted assets that we
have right now.
I
 
have
 
to
 
go
 
back
 
to
 
the critical
 
point.
 
Mission number
 
one
 
we have
 
had
 
in
 
the last
 
six
 
months and
 
in
 
the
foreseeable future is to restructure Credit Suisse,
 
okay? And then we're going
 
to talk about synergies
 
and then
we're going
 
to talk
 
about growth.
 
But, before
 
we talk
 
about growth
 
of the
 
top line,
 
we need
 
to restructure
and reset the basis. And in that
 
sense, believe me, we are not
 
counting on blue sky scenarios
 
and that figure is
not really our figure.
Adam Terelak, Mediobanca
Can I ask for a better landing point then?
Sergio P.
 
Ermotti
Well, the landing point you will see it in February.
15
Adam Terelak, Mediobanca
Okay. Thank you.
Todd
 
Tuckner
Adam, on your second question in terms of
 
op risk RWA and modeling, as I mentioned, we did an initial
impact assessment. It was quite dynamic.
 
We've had only initial discussions with our regulator at this
 
point in
time, naturally ahead of the formal introduction of Basel
 
III final for op risk RWA, there'll be much more
extensive interactions with the regulator to agree on the
 
particulars around the ILM, as you say.
 
We made certain modeled assumptions for now, as well as the loss history. We made certain assumptions
about the loss history and the roll off of certain legacy
 
matters. So, it was a thoughtful analysis, a
 
good initial
view, but it's going to be one that requires more work and more engagement with our regulator over the
coming months.
On the
 
5%, actually,
 
no, it's not
 
ex-op risk, it's
 
inclusive. But given
 
that, op
 
risk we're saying,
 
as I said
 
in my
remarks, we see that as broadly unchanged from now. The maths are the same either way.
Adam Terelak, Mediobanca
Perfect. Thank you very much.
Flora Bocahut, Jefferies
Yes. Good morning. I'd like to talk about the net new money, especially at CS this quarter, because if I look
 
at extrapolating the quarterly changes in net
 
new money at CS that we've seen over the
 
past two quarters, it
seems to point to a run rate where you gain USD 20
 
to USD 30 billion of net new money per quarter. But
then, if I try and reconcile just the month of September
 
from what you had disclosed with Q2, it looks like
there's been a slowdown actually in net new money
 
at CS with just USD 2 billion in Wealth this month.
 
So
what should I consider as a more normalized level from
 
here? Is it going to be still the pace we saw over
quarterly basis or there is a slowdown because the environment
 
is tougher. You
 
probably have visibility there
with what happened in October.
And the second question is actually following
 
up on this. I know you are going
 
to provide us with the strategic
update at
 
the full
 
year, but any hint
 
as to
 
what kind
 
of assumptions
 
you've made
 
in your
 
RoCET1 target
 
towards
2026 regarding
 
the AUM level,
 
especially considering the
 
fact that
 
the market effect
 
is starting
 
for the more
negative now. Thank you.
Todd
 
Tuckner
Hi, Flora. Thanks for the questions. So, on
 
the net new money for Credit Suisse Wealth, I appreciate your
doing a fair bit of the extrapolation math
 
but a long time in this business tells me
 
that extrapolating net new
money trends is probably not necessarily the way to go, certainly
 
not from you know, a month or so.
The point we've made is that we've stabilized
 
the business. We're seeing inflows after massive outflows
 
and
that for us, as Sergio highlighted, was really objective
 
number one, was to stabilize the business
 
and that
we've achieved.
16
Look, going forward in any case, we're going to be reporting these metrics
 
on a combined basis. We're just
giving an indication because we talked about that
 
in the second quarter. We gave an indication even up to
the late publication date towards the end of August.
 
So, we, Sergio and I, wanted to follow
 
through on that
and offer that perspective, but the expectation going
 
forward in any case is that Wealth Management, which
is how we manage the business, will be providing a
 
combined net new money plus dividend and
 
interest
figure going forward.
And in terms of the RoCET1 assumptions
 
in terms of AUM levels, we're doing that work
 
now. Naturally,
 
when
we develop the landing zone targets that we articulated in the second quarter, we had a view on growth, but
now we're
 
validating that in
 
our business
 
planning process and
 
we'll come back
 
and offer
 
specificity around
that in February.
Flora Bocahut
Thank you.
Jeremy Sigee, Exane BNP Paribas
Good morning. Thank you. I'd like
 
to ask two questions about non-core, if I could.
 
The first one on the RWA
outlook, you've had a great start already reducing that balance
 
down quite effectively. The runoff you show
in the slide is effectively the natural runoff with no action, but
 
clearly you are taking action. So, is it
reasonable for us to expect that rather than being
 
down 50%, it could be down 75% or 100%
 
within that
sort of three-year timeframe? It seems that you're on a
 
more aggressive trajectory than that passive runoff
that you're showing in the slide.
And then,
 
the second
 
question is
 
also about
 
non-core, about
 
the P&L.
 
So you're
 
annualizing in
 
this quarter
around USD 1 billion positive
 
revenues and USD 5 billion
 
of costs. I just wonder
 
is that a representative starting
point for
 
us to
 
sort of
 
model non-core
 
going forward?
 
And linked
 
to that,
 
how much
 
could that
 
change in
2024? Could we see – will we
 
still see positive revenues in 2024 in
 
non-core? And how much could we
 
expect
the costs to reduce in 2024 in non-core?
Sergio P.
 
Ermotti
I think, Todd, I mean, let me start with taking the one on – you know we are giving as we mentioned
 
last
time, we just give you a flavor for the natural decay
 
in order for you to understand that, what will
 
be the
leftover in case we do nothing. And as you
 
pointed out, we have been pretty active.
Having said that, I don't think it's reasonable to assume
 
that we're going to take down 100% or 75% to
100% per se because it all depends on at
 
what terms we will do it. The very critical
 
topic here is that we have
to do it in a way that creates value and not just headlines.
 
So, we can get rid of probably many of those
positions, but destroying a lot of value. And this will be
 
in conflict with capital accretion and the ability for us
to return capital to shareholders.
So, I think
 
that it's very
 
clear what
 
is the framework
 
we are using
 
and I think
 
objective number
 
one around non-
core is not necessarily just
 
to accelerate the wind down of
 
assets, but it's to take down
 
cost. That's the much
more critical element of freeing up capacity and resources.
17
Todd
 
Tuckner
And Jeremy, on the P&L question, for sure, on the revenue side, I would not annualize the current quarter's
revenues. The revenues are a function of – the market through which we
 
would exit these positions. It
depends on the nature of the positions we're talking about.
 
It depends on market conditions. We'll be
opportunistic and everything, Sergio just
 
said that actually informs the dynamic about
 
the speed, the timing,
the intensity of when we get out of positions
 
is, of course, what governs in
 
that respect. So, I would put no
sort of target or certain extrapolation. Certainly, no extrapolation to the current quarter's
 
revenues in NCL is
saying, well that's a run rate.
On
 
the cost
 
side,
 
I
 
would argue
 
that's different
 
because there
 
you're
 
looking at
 
 
on
 
the underlying
 
OpEx,
you're looking at, at this point, the run rate cost to support the rundown of
 
the business. So, as that business
runs down, you would expect that the costs associated, the underlying OpEx supporting the portfolio will also
run down. Now, that may not be linear and I wouldn't expect it to be linear,
 
but it ought to be somewhere in
some way, shape or form correlated with the size of the balance sheet as it starts to
 
diminish over time.
Jeremy Sigee, Exane BNP Paribas
Okay. Thank you.
Andrew Lim, Société Générale
Hi. Morning. Thanks for taking my questions.
 
So just turning to tax. Obviously, we saw some nice RWA
reduction, but it was negated by the high tax charge.
 
But at the same time, you're talking about mergers
 
of
the divisional structure to enable you to reduce the effective tax
 
rate. I was wondering if you could give us
more specificity on when we can expect that to happen.
 
And would that be a gradual process for the
reduction in the effective tax rate, or would that be actually
 
a step-down change there?
And then, my second question is, you've done a good job on costs, well done there. The exit run rates for the
end of the year, I was wondering if you could update us on that.
Todd
 
Tuckner
Thanks, Andrew. So, on the tax question, in terms of timing. As I mentioned
 
in my remarks, certainly the
elevated tax rate is a function of the fact
 
that the expenses that are weighing on our pre-tax at the moment,
in particular, the integration related expenses are being incurred in jurisdictions where we're not able to offset
– even within the jurisdictions - necessarily offset profits and
 
losses in different entities just given where they
fall out.
So there could be expenses or losses in one entity that's
 
not tax grouped with an entity that is generating
taxable profits. And that's indeed what's happening
 
really across the globe because the Credit Suisse entities
in particular, as you'll appreciate under Credit Suisse AG, which is not yet merged with UBS AG, those
 
are
separate chains of entities. So, therefore, anything happening
 
on the CS AG side that you would otherwise
ideally shelter with profits of the UBS side, isn't happening
 
until we start the mergers.
Now, once we do that, your
 
question was, is it
 
a step or it's gradual?
 
We'll see both. I mean,
 
certainly we'll see
some immediate benefits by bringing together certain
 
entities. Others are going to be harder work and harder
planning to unlock some additional tax value and get the rate to a lower level. So you’ll see
 
once the mergers
take place over the course of 2024, you'll see some step down. But you'll also, as I said, gradually see the rate
come back in.
18
In terms of the update for year end,
 
we did say that as of the
 
third quarter, we see the run rate saves in excess
of
 
USD
 
3
 
billion
 
and
 
expect
 
to
 
make
 
further
 
progress.
 
We're
 
undertaking
 
actions
 
at
 
present.
 
We
 
haven't
quantified that,
 
but you
 
can expect
 
that there
 
will be
 
further progress
 
in the
 
fourth quarter
 
before we
 
exit 2023.
Andrew Lim, Société Générale
That’s great. Thank you.
 
Amit Goel, Barclays
Hi. Thank you. Two questions from me. So, the first is, I mean, so clearly the legal entity
 
merger is pretty
important in terms of the kind of the costs
 
and the tax and so forth. So, do you
 
mind just reminding us
exactly the main pieces and in terms of the
 
timing? So, would you be expecting some
 
of that to happen
within the first half of the year or is that kind
 
of second half? And just things that
 
we can monitor to check
the progress there.
And then,
 
secondly,
 
just in
 
terms of
 
the revenue
 
picture, just
 
into Q4,
 
obviously,
 
there's the
 
commentary on
the transactional income and
 
NII. Just thinking – are you thinking
 
the underlying revenues Q4 ex-NCL
 
are likely
to be in line with what we've seen in Q3 or slightly
 
better or due to seasonality, slightly worse? Thank you.
Todd
 
Tuckner
Thanks for the questions, Amit. So, on the
 
legal entities, in terms of the main pieces and the timing,
obviously, the big groups to address are the parent banks that will take place, the two Swiss banks and then
the US IHCs and the subsidiaries below. I mean, I'd say those are – and in the
 
UK as well. And those are going
to be the biggest chunks.
Of course, across the globe, there's also a lot of undertaking
 
in Europe and in Asia. But the big – I highlighted
the big pieces because that's what you
 
were looking for. We are working hard on developing plans for all of
those. I think it's fair to say over the course
 
of 2024, I won’t at this stage, speculate
 
on exact timing, but we'll
provide more updates as we go and as we enter the year
 
and as we go through the year, we'll give you more
specificity around timelines.
In terms of the revenue picture in the fourth quarter, I mean, as you mentioned, repeating back that I offered
some NII guidance for our core businesses in terms
 
of underlying NII. We do see the potential for transactional
activities. I mean, the market for transactional
 
activities is a bit clouded at the moment.
We are seeing some risk off even though, earlier this month certainly
 
some of the less hawkish sentiment,
coupled with further rate hike pauses, and
 
seeing bonds and equities rally more recently, that would suggest
perhaps more risk on. But I think that's all counterbalanced
 
as well in our clients' minds also about what's
happening in the Middle East.
And so we do see the
 
potential for TRX in our asset
 
gathering businesses as well
 
as transactional activity in our
IB to potentially be affected by that. And as you mentioned, seasonality
 
will for sure, in any event, be a factor.
So I'd
 
say the
 
revenue picture
 
is a
 
bit clouded,
 
but I,
 
at this
 
point, wouldn't
 
necessarily expect
 
it to
 
increase
quarter-on-quarter significantly at this stage.
19
Amit Goel, Barclays
Got it. Thanks. And just on the legal
 
entity piece, so just sorry for my understanding, it's like getting
 
the legal
work
 
done
 
and
 
getting
 
the
 
regulators
 
to
 
kind
 
of
 
sign
 
off.
 
And
 
just
 
in
 
terms
 
of
 
the
 
main
 
things
 
that
 
you,
obviously, have to get done to do the mergers, is that right?
 
Todd
 
Tuckner
Yes.
 
That's correct. There is
 
a lot of planning
 
to be done. The
 
planning manuals are incredibly
 
extensive. And
of course,
 
it needs
 
to be
 
approved by
 
the regulators.
 
And when
 
you think
 
about the
 
parent bank
 
and how
many jurisdictions
 
they operate
 
in, you're
 
talking about
 
regulators across
 
the world.
 
So these
 
are not
 
simple
transactions by any stretch of the imagination.
 
Amit Goel, Barclays
Okay. Thank you.
Benjamin Goy, Deutsche Bank
Hi. Good
 
morning. Two
 
questions, please.
 
The first,
 
if you
 
could maybe
 
speak about
 
the profitability
 
of the
recovery of funds and assets of Credit
 
Suisse and how that's going, the discussion with clients there.
 
And the
second is, it looks like, in particular,
 
non-core significantly outperformed your expectation you set in Q2 in the
third quarter.
 
So just wondering, what does it mean for the budget, so to say,
 
you have to, for an accelerated
rundown in Q4 and beyond. Thank you.
 
Sergio P.
 
Ermotti
 
Yes.
 
I mean, in terms of
 
the non-core, I don't
 
think that extrapolating a quarter is
 
meaningful. I do – as
 
Todd
mentioned before, we need to look at –
 
in some cases, we were able to
 
dispose assets above marks. In others,
we will need to make an assessment about
 
what we think is the value of those positions.
But I would
 
pay attention to
 
not to use
 
the third quarter
 
numbers and extrapolate
 
and call it
 
is better than
 
what
we expected because we didn't really give
 
any guidance on that. So, I mean,
 
I think that we are confident that
the quality,
 
broadly speaking,
 
of the
 
assets is there.
 
They are
 
non-core assets
 
per se. The
 
vast majority
 
is not
problematic
 
and
 
therefore
 
I'm
 
not
 
overly
 
concerned about
 
the
 
revenue
 
or
 
the cost
 
to
 
exit.
 
As
 
I
 
mentioned
before, it's more
 
of a matter of
 
addressing the cost to
 
sustain those assets than it
 
is about managing out
 
the
assets themselves.
In terms of
 
recovery of the funds,
 
we see a
 
– the win-back strategy
 
is still in
 
place. We have been
 
– we are
 
very focused.
 
And probably
 
what I
 
can offer
 
as a
 
comment is
 
that as
 
time goes
 
by we
 
saw it
 
already in
 
the
second quarter of
 
the year after
 
the announcement of
 
the transaction, and
 
definitely,
 
has been confirmed in
the third
 
quarter.
 
Basically,
 
the third
 
quarter is
 
a year
 
after you
 
started to
 
see departure
 
of assets
 
and client
advisors from Credit Suisse.
 
Despite the massive outflows
 
that you saw, the amount of
 
assets that were able to
be moved
 
by the
 
people that
 
were serving those
 
assets has
 
been within
 
what we
 
expected, on
 
average no
 
more
than 20%. So the
 
first big issue, as
 
I said, we have
 
been able to keep
 
the vast majority
 
of the assets.
 
So it's very
difficult for people that move out to be able to bring
 
the assets with them.
So if you look at the numbers, it's quite – I can
 
give you maybe a little bit of anecdotal
 
evidence. I mean, we
lost around – or Credit Suisse in the last 12 months lost
 
around 500 client advisors. They moved so far USD
20 billions of assets. So – and let's say that we
 
we're going to lose further assets because some of
 
those
people just left more recently, and we're going to see some outflows later on, but we are totally convinced
that it's not going to be a multiple of that
 
USD 20 billions, the future outflows. And we are working
 
hard to
recapture some of it.
20
So,
 
I
 
think that
 
our
 
strategy now
 
is
 
more
 
focused on
 
regaining
 
the clients
 
that left
 
because
 
of fears
 
of the
instability of the system. And in that sense, we maintain our ambitions,
 
as we say.
 
Most likely,
 
we're going to
formulate these
 
ambitions, as
 
Todd
 
mentioned, as
 
a combined
 
wealth management business
 
going forward
because, I mean, it's not
 
really an issue any longer, Credit Suisse versus UBS, it’s one team.
 
We are working on
maximizing the
 
outcome. And
 
so we're
 
going to
 
just outline
 
our net
 
new money
 
growth ambitions
 
in our
 
three-
year plan in a way that reflects win-backs and organic
 
growth.
Benjamin Goy, Deutsche Bank
Good. Thank you.
Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs
Yeah. Good morning, everyone. Just two from me. So, on profitability, clearly better than expected in the
quarter. Previously,
 
you'd guided for positive underlying
 
PBT in H2 and breakeven in the third quarter. So,
given the third quarter is already quite positive, does that
 
change how we should think about Q4? I guess
 
the
old guidance implied a sequential improvement in
 
the fourth quarter in terms of PBT. So just wondering
whether that's still the right way to
 
think about that.
And then,
 
second, and
 
I appreciate
 
it's a
 
bit of
 
a follow-up
 
to some
 
of the
 
earlier questions
 
on CS
 
net new
money.
 
You've
 
given
 
the regional
 
disclosure
 
on
 
a
 
combined
 
basis,
 
but
 
I
 
just
 
wanted
 
to
 
check
 
whether the
combined regional
 
picture, sort
 
of Asia
 
strong,
 
EMEA strong,
 
Switzerland more
 
balanced. Is
 
that consistent
across both the CS and UBS Wealth franchises?
Todd
 
Tuckner
Thanks, Christopher. Yeah.
 
On the second question, it is consistent, obviously
 
ex the US given CS doesn't
have a wealth presence there, but across, it is. I would say the APAC and EMEA proportionality holds
obviously on the smaller base that we
 
were talking in terms of the net inflows this quarter
 
compared to the
UBS side. But yes, that dynamic does hold.
In terms of profitability in the fourth quarter, I would say that we certainly accelerated a bit
 
of what we were
forecasting back in August in terms of 3Q, 4Q where we
 
said roughly breakeven in 3Q and further progress in
4Q. I think we've seen the progress that we've been able to
 
accelerate. So really undertaking and executing
integration at pace. And you see the results
 
of that.
I'd say 4Q in
 
a way standing
 
alone relative to how
 
we saw it back
 
in August is still
 
around the same. So
 
I would
look – meaning
 
I would say
 
we expect 4Q
 
to come in
 
better than breakeven,
 
which is what
 
we said was
 
the
case back in
 
August. And I would
 
say balancing the execution
 
on the cost side,
 
but also considering some
 
of
how we're guiding on the
 
revenue side I think that
 
number you have an
 
idea of where we, at this
 
stage expect
that number to come in.
Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs
Thanks, Todd. Helpful.
Sergio P.
 
Ermotti
Okay.
 
I think this was the
 
last question. Let me thank
 
you for dialing in
 
and by just quickly reiterating,
 
as you
can see, we are in full execution
 
mode, but also at the
 
same time we are planning for
 
the future. And the next
milestones, other than the
 
operational one I just or
 
we just described, is
 
to prepare the three-year plan that
 
we
will present in February.
21
In the meantime, we are very
 
focused really on, as I said,
 
on execution. And I'm totally convinced that we are
in
 
a
 
good
 
place
 
and
 
of
 
course,
 
in
 
our
 
mission
 
to
 
really
 
create
 
some
 
things
 
that
 
will
 
not
 
only
 
be
 
a
 
huge
restructuring story,
 
but also something that has
 
set the base for
 
future growth and ambitions
 
that we have. I
mean, we look
 
forward to present
 
you the three-year
 
plan in February.
 
And I'm sure
 
in the meantime,
 
we're
going to be in touch either directly or through my colleagues
 
for the follow-ups of this call.
Thank you for calling in and enjoy the rest of the
 
day. Thank you.
 
22
Cautionary Statement
 
Regarding Forward-Looking
 
Statements |
 
This presentation contains
 
statements that constitute
 
“forward-looking statements,”
including but
 
not limited
 
to management’s
 
outlook for
 
UBS’s financial
 
performance, statements
 
relating to
 
the anticipated
 
effect
 
of transactions
 
and
strategic initiatives on UBS’s business and
 
future development and goals or
 
intentions to achieve climate, sustainability and other
 
social objectives. While
these forward-looking
 
statements represent
 
UBS’s judgments,
 
expectations and
 
objectives concerning
 
the matters
 
described, a
 
number of
 
risks, uncertainties
and other important factors could cause actual developments and results to differ materially from UBS’s expectations. In particular, recent terrorist activity
and escalating armed conflict in
 
the middle east, as well
 
as the continuing Russia–Ukraine war, may have significant
 
impacts on global markets, exacerbate
global inflationary pressures, and
 
slow global growth. In
 
addition, the ongoing conflicts may
 
continue to cause significant
 
population displacement, and
lead
 
to
 
shortages
 
of
 
vital
 
commodities,
 
including
 
energy
 
shortages
 
and
 
food
 
insecurity
 
outside
 
the
 
areas
 
immediately
 
involved
 
in
 
armed
 
conflict.
Governmental responses to the armed conflicts, including, with respect to the Russia-Ukraine war, coordinated successive sets
 
of sanctions on Russia and
Belarus, and Russian and Belarusian entities and nationals, and the uncertainty
 
as to whether the ongoing conflicts will widen and intensify, may continue
to have significant adverse effects on the market and macroeconomic conditions,
 
including in ways that cannot be anticipated. UBS’s
 
acquisition of Credit
Suisse has materially changed our outlook and strategic direction and introduced new operational challenges. The integration of the Credit Suisse entities
into the UBS structure is
 
expected to take between
 
three and five years and
 
presents significant risks, including
 
the risks that UBS Group
 
AG may be unable
to achieve
 
the cost
 
reductions and
 
other benefits
 
contemplated by the
 
transaction. This creates
 
significantly greater
 
uncertainty about
 
forward-looking
statements. Other factors that may affect our performance and ability to achieve our plans, outlook and
 
other objectives also include, but are not limited
to: (i)
 
the degree to
 
which UBS is
 
successful in the
 
execution of its
 
strategic plans, including
 
its cost reduction
 
and efficiency initiatives
 
and its ability
 
to
manage its
 
levels of
 
risk-weighted assets (RWA)
 
and leverage
 
ratio denominator
 
(LRD), liquidity
 
coverage ratio
 
and other
 
financial resources,
 
including
changes in RWA assets and liabilities arising from higher market
 
volatility and the size of the combined bank; (ii) the degree
 
to which UBS is successful in
implementing changes to its businesses to
 
meet changing market, regulatory and other conditions,
 
including as a result of the acquisition of Credit Suisse;
(iii) increased inflation
 
and interest rate
 
volatility in
 
major markets;
 
(iv) developments
 
in the
 
macroeconomic climate
 
and in the
 
markets in
 
which UBS
 
operates
or to which
 
it is exposed, including
 
movements in securities prices
 
or liquidity,
 
credit spreads, currency
 
exchange rates, deterioration or
 
slow recovery in
residential
 
and
 
commercial real
 
estate markets,
 
the effects
 
of
 
economic conditions,
 
including increasing
 
inflationary pressures,
 
market
 
developments,
increasing geopolitical tensions, and changes to national trade policies on the financial position or creditworthiness of UBS’s clients and counterparties,
 
as
well as on client sentiment and
 
levels of activity,
 
including the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken to
 
manage it, which have had and may
 
also
continue to
 
have a
 
significant adverse
 
effect on
 
global and
 
regional economic
 
activity,
 
including disruptions
 
to global
 
supply chains
 
and labor
 
market
displacements; (v) changes in the
 
availability of capital and funding, including
 
any adverse changes in UBS’s credit
 
spreads and credit ratings of UBS, Credit
Suisse, sovereign issuers, structured
 
credit products or
 
credit-related exposures, as
 
well as availability and
 
cost of funding to
 
meet requirements for
 
debt
eligible
 
for
 
total
 
loss-absorbing
 
capacity
 
(TLAC),
 
in
 
particular
 
in
 
light
 
of
 
the
 
acquisition
 
of
 
Credit
 
Suisse;
 
(vi)
 
changes
 
in
 
central
 
bank
 
policies
 
or
 
the
implementation of financial legislation and regulation in Switzerland, the US, the UK, the European
 
Union and other financial centers that have imposed,
or resulted
 
in, or
 
may do
 
so in
 
the future,
 
more stringent
 
or entity-specific capital,
 
TLAC, leverage ratio,
 
net stable
 
funding ratio, liquidity
 
and funding
requirements, heightened operational
 
resilience requirements, incremental
 
tax requirements, additional
 
levies, limitations
 
on permitted activities,
 
constraints
on remuneration, constraints on transfers
 
of capital and liquidity
 
and sharing of operational costs
 
across the Group or other measures, and
 
the effect these
will or would
 
have on UBS’s
 
business activities;
 
(vii) UBS’s ability
 
to successfully
 
implement resolvability
 
and related regulatory
 
requirements and the
 
potential
need
 
to
 
make
 
further changes
 
to
 
the
 
legal structure
 
or
 
booking model
 
of
 
UBS
 
in
 
response
 
to
 
legal
 
and
 
regulatory
 
requirements and
 
any additional
requirements due to
 
its acquisition
 
of Credit Suisse,
 
or other developments;
 
(viii) UBS’s ability
 
to maintain
 
and improve its
 
systems and controls
 
for complying
with sanctions in a timely manner and for the detection and prevention of money laundering to meet evolving regulatory requirements
 
and expectations,
in particular in current geopolitical turmoil; (ix) the uncertainty arising from domestic stresses in certain major economies;
 
(x) changes in UBS’s competitive
position, including whether
 
differences in
 
regulatory capital and
 
other requirements among
 
the major
 
financial centers adversely
 
affect UBS’s
 
ability to
compete in certain
 
lines of business; (xi)
 
changes in the
 
standards of conduct
 
applicable to our
 
businesses that may result
 
from new regulations
 
or new
enforcement of existing
 
standards, including measures
 
to impose new
 
and enhanced duties
 
when interacting with
 
customers and in
 
the execution and
handling of customer
 
transactions; (xii) the
 
liability to which
 
UBS may
 
be exposed, or
 
possible constraints or
 
sanctions that regulatory
 
authorities might
impose on
 
UBS, due
 
to
 
litigation, contractual
 
claims and
 
regulatory investigations,
 
including the
 
potential for
 
disqualification from
 
certain businesses,
potentially large fines or
 
monetary penalties, or the
 
loss of licenses or
 
privileges as a result
 
of regulatory or other
 
governmental sanctions, as well as
 
the
effect that litigation, regulatory and
 
similar matters have on the
 
operational risk component of our RWA,
 
including as a result of
 
its acquisition of Credit
Suisse, as
 
well as
 
the amount
 
of capital
 
available for
 
return to
 
shareholders; (xiii)
 
the effects
 
on UBS’s
 
business, in
 
particular cross-border
 
banking, of
sanctions, tax or
 
regulatory developments and
 
of possible changes
 
in UBS’s policies and
 
practices; (xiv) UBS’s
 
ability to retain
 
and attract the
 
employees
necessary to
 
generate revenues
 
and to
 
manage, support
 
and control its
 
businesses, which
 
may be affected
 
by competitive
 
factors; (xv)
 
changes in
 
accounting
or tax standards
 
or policies, and
 
determinations or interpretations affecting the
 
recognition of gain or
 
loss, the valuation of
 
goodwill, the recognition of
deferred tax assets and other matters; (xvi) UBS’s ability
 
to implement new technologies and business
 
methods, including digital services and technologies,
and ability to successfully compete with both
 
existing and new financial service providers, some
 
of which may not be regulated
 
to the same extent; (xvii)
limitations on
 
the effectiveness of
 
UBS’s internal
 
processes for risk
 
management, risk
 
control, measurement
 
and modeling,
 
and of financial
 
models generally;
(xviii) the
 
occurrence of
 
operational failures,
 
such as
 
fraud, misconduct,
 
unauthorized trading,
 
financial crime,
 
cyberattacks, data
 
leakage and
 
systems
failures, the
 
risk of
 
which is
 
increased with cyberattack
 
threats from
 
both nation states
 
and non-nation-state actors
 
targeting financial institutions;
 
(xix)
restrictions on the ability of UBS Group AG to make payments or distributions, including due to
 
restrictions on the ability of its subsidiaries to make loans
or distributions, directly
 
or indirectly,
 
or,
 
in the case
 
of financial difficulties, due
 
to the exercise
 
by FINMA or
 
the regulators of
 
UBS’s operations in other
countries of their broad statutory powers
 
in relation to protective measures, restructuring and liquidation
 
proceedings; (xx) the degree to which changes
 
in
regulation, capital or legal structure, financial
 
results or other factors may affect
 
UBS’s ability to maintain its
 
stated capital return objective;
 
(xxi) uncertainty
over the scope
 
of actions that
 
may be
 
required by
 
UBS, governments and others
 
for UBS to
 
achieve goals relating
 
to climate, environmental
 
and social
matters, as
 
well as
 
the evolving nature
 
of underlying science
 
and industry and
 
the possibility of
 
conflict between different
 
governmental standards and
regulatory regimes;
 
(xxii) the
 
ability of
 
UBS to
 
access capital
 
markets; (xxiii)
 
the ability
 
of UBS
 
to successfully
 
recover from
 
a disaster
 
or other
 
business
continuity
 
problem
 
due
 
to
 
a
 
hurricane,
 
flood,
 
earthquake,
 
terrorist
 
attack,
 
war,
 
conflict
 
(e.g.,
 
the
 
Russia–Ukraine
 
war),
 
pandemic,
 
security
 
breach,
cyberattack, power
 
loss, telecommunications
 
failure
 
or other
 
natural or
 
man-made event,
 
including the
 
ability to
 
function remotely
 
during long-term
disruptions such as the COVID-19
 
(coronavirus) pandemic; (xxiv) the level
 
of success in the absorption of
 
Credit Suisse, in the integration of
 
the two groups
and their businesses, and in the execution of the planned strategy regarding cost reduction
 
and divestment of any non-core assets, the existing assets and
liabilities currently existing
 
in the Credit
 
Suisse Group, the
 
level of resulting
 
impairments and
 
write-downs, the
 
effect of the
 
consummation of
 
the integration
on the operational results, share price and
 
credit rating of UBS – delays,
 
difficulties, or failure in closing the
 
transaction may cause market disruption and
challenges for UBS to maintain business, contractual and operational
 
relationships; and (xxv) the effect that these or other factors or unanticipated
 
events,
including media
 
reports and
 
speculations, may
 
have on
 
our reputation
 
and the
 
additional consequences
 
that this
 
may have
 
on our
 
business and
 
performance.
The sequence in which the factors
 
above are presented is not indicative
 
of their likelihood of occurrence or
 
the potential magnitude of their
 
consequences.
Our business and financial performance could be affected
 
by other factors identified in our
 
past and future filings and
 
reports, including those filed with
the US Securities
 
and Exchange Commission
 
(the SEC). More detailed
 
information about those
 
factors is set forth
 
in documents furnished
 
by UBS and filings
made by UBS
 
with the SEC,
 
including the Annual Report
 
on Form 20-F
 
for the year ended
 
31 December 2022. UBS
 
is not under any
 
obligation to (and
expressly disclaims any obligation to) update or
 
alter its forward-looking statements, whether as
 
a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
 
 
 
 
 
 
23
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the
 
registrants have duly
caused this report to be signed on their behalf by the undersigned, thereunto
 
duly authorized.
UBS Group AG
By:
 
/s/ David Kelly
 
_
Name:
 
David Kelly
Title:
 
Managing Director
 
By:
 
/s/ Ella Campi
 
_
Name:
 
Ella Campi
Title:
 
Executive Director
UBS AG
By:
 
/s/ David Kelly
 
_
Name:
 
David Kelly
Title:
 
Managing Director
 
By:
 
/s/ Ella Campi
 
_
Name:
 
Ella Campi
Title:
 
Executive Director
Credit Suisse AG
By:
 
/s/ Ulrich Körner
 
_____
Name:
 
Ulrich Körner
Title:
 
Chief Executive Officer
By:
 
/s/
 
Simon Grimwood
 
_
Name:
 
Simon Grimwood
Title:
 
Chief Financial Officer
Date:
 
November 8, 2023