XML 27 R17.htm IDEA: XBRL DOCUMENT v3.25.2
Loans
 9 Months Ended
Jul. 31, 2025
Text Block [Abstract]  
Loans
Note 6. Loans
Allowance for credit losses
The following table provides a reconciliation of the opening balance to the closing balance of the ECL allowance:
 
$ millions, as at or for the three months ended   
2025
Jul. 31
  
    
Stage 1
    
Stage 2
    
Stage 3
        
     
Collective
provision
12-month
ECL
performing
    
Collective
provision
lifetime
ECL
performing
    
Collective and
individual
provision
lifetime ECL
credit-impaired
    
Total
  
Residential mortgages
         
Balance at beginning of period
   
$
92
 
  
$
132
 
  
$
258
 
  
$
482
 
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses
         
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions 
(1)
   
 
4
 
  
 
(4
) 
  
 
(19
) 
  
 
(19
) 
Changes in model
   
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
Net remeasurement 
(2)
   
 
(24
) 
  
 
53
 
  
 
75
 
  
 
104
 
Transfers 
(2)
         
– to 12-month ECL
   
 
30
 
  
 
(28
) 
  
 
(2
) 
  
 
–
 
– to lifetime ECL performing
   
 
(3
) 
  
 
8
 
  
 
(5
) 
  
 
–
 
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
   
 
–
 
  
 
(2
) 
  
 
2
 
  
 
–
 
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(3)
   
 
7
 
  
 
27
 
  
 
51
 
  
 
85
 
Write-offs
   
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
(5
) 
  
 
(5
) 
Recoveries
   
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
3
 
  
 
3
 
Interest income on impaired loans
   
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
(10
) 
  
 
(10
) 
Foreign exchange and other
   
 
–
 
  
 
(1
) 
  
 
1
 
  
 
–
 
Balance at end of period
   
$
99
 
  
$
158
 
  
$
298
 
  
$
555
 
Personal
         
Balance at beginning of period
   
$
242
 
  
$
647
 
  
$
206
 
  
$
1,095
 
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses
         
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions 
(1)
   
 
14
 
  
 
(11
) 
  
 
(7
) 
  
 
(4
) 
Changes in model
   
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
Net remeasurement 
(2)
   
 
(112
) 
  
 
200
 
  
 
107
 
  
 
195
 
Transfers 
(2)
         
– to 12-month ECL
   
 
134
 
  
 
(133
) 
  
 
(1
) 
  
 
–
 
– to lifetime ECL performing
   
 
(29
) 
  
 
35
 
  
 
(6
) 
  
 
–
 
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
   
 
(1
) 
  
 
(17
) 
  
 
18
 
  
 
–
 
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(3)
   
 
6
 
  
 
74
 
  
 
111
 
  
 
191
 
Write-offs
   
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
(146
) 
  
 
(146
) 
Recoveries
   
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
19
 
  
 
19
 
Interest income on impaired loans
   
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
(2
) 
  
 
(2
) 
Foreign exchange and other
   
 
5
 
  
 
(1
) 
  
 
(4
) 
  
 
–
 
Balance at end of period
   
$
253
 
  
$
720
 
  
$
184
 
  
$
1,157
 
Credit card
         
Balance at beginning of period
   
$
291
 
  
$
702
 
  
$
–
 
  
$
993
 
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses
         
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions 
(1)
   
 
9
 
  
 
(9
) 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
Changes in model
   
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
Net remeasurement 
(2)
   
 
(145
) 
  
 
213
 
  
 
93
 
  
 
161
 
Transfers 
(2)
         
– to 12-month ECL
   
 
201
 
  
 
(201
) 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
– to lifetime ECL performing
   
 
(18
) 
  
 
18
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
   
 
(1
) 
  
 
(97
) 
  
 
98
 
  
 
–
 
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(3)
   
 
46
 
  
 
(76
) 
  
 
191
 
  
 
161
 
Write-offs
   
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
(232
) 
  
 
(232
) 
Recoveries
   
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
41
 
  
 
41
 
Interest income on impaired loans
   
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
Foreign exchange and other
   
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
Balance at end of period
   
$
337
 
  
$
626
 
  
$
–
 
  
$
963
 
Business and government
         
Balance at beginning of period
   
$
333
 
  
$
1,103
 
  
$
449
 
  
$
1,885
 
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses
         
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions 
(1)
   
 
14
 
  
 
(12
) 
  
 
(14
) 
  
 
(12
) 
Changes in model
   
 
84
 
  
 
(84
) 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
Net remeasurement 
(2)
   
 
(39
) 
  
 
84
 
  
 
89
 
  
 
134
 
Transfers 
(2)
         
– to 12-month ECL
   
 
39
 
  
 
(38
) 
  
 
(1
) 
  
 
–
 
– to lifetime ECL performing
   
 
(9
) 
  
 
11
 
  
 
(2
) 
  
 
–
 
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
   
 
–
 
  
 
(56
) 
  
 
56
 
  
 
–
 
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(3)
   
 
89
 
  
 
(95
) 
  
 
128
 
  
 
122
 
Write-offs
   
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
(94
) 
  
 
(94
) 
Recoveries
   
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
13
 
  
 
13
 
Interest income on impaired loans
   
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
(22
) 
  
 
(22
) 
Foreign exchange and other
   
 
–
 
  
 
5
 
  
 
4
 
  
 
9
 
Balance at end of period
   
$
422
 
  
$
1,013
 
  
$
478
 
  
$
1,913
 
Total ECL allowance
 
(4)
   
$
  1,111
 
  
$
2,517
 
  
$
960
 
  
$
4,588
 
Comprises:
         
Loans
   
$
  992
 
  
$
  2,341
 
  
$
  952
 
  
$
  4,285
 
Undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures 
(5)
   
 
119
 
  
 
176
 
  
 
8
 
  
 
303
 
(1)
Excludes the disposal and write-off of impaired loans.
(2)
Transfers represent stage movements of ECL allowances before net remeasurement. Net remeasurement represents the current period change in ECL allowances for transfers, net write-offs, changes in forecasts of forward-looking information, parameter updates, and partial repayments in the period.
(3)
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses for loans and undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures is presented as Provision for (reversal of) credit losses on our interim consolidated statement of income.
(4)
See Note 5 to the interim consolidated financial statements for the ECL allowance on debt securities measured at FVOCI and amortized cost. The ECL allowances for other financial assets classified at amortized cost were immaterial as at July 31, 2025, April 30, 2025 and July 31, 2024 and were excluded from the table above. Financial assets other than loans that are classified at amortized cost are presented on our interim consolidated balance sheet net of ECL allowances.
(5)
Included in Other liabilities on our interim consolidated balance sheet.
$ millions, as at or for the three months ended   2025
Apr. 30		     2024
Jul. 31		  
    Stage 1     Stage 2     Stage 3           Stage 1     Stage 2     Stage 3        
     Collective
provision
12-month
ECL
performing		     Collective
provision
lifetime
ECL
performing		     Collective and
individual
provision
lifetime ECL
credit-impaired		     Total     Collective
provision
12-month

ECL
performing		     Collective
provision
lifetime
ECL
performing		     Collective and
individual
provision
lifetime ECL
credit-impaired
     Total  
Residential mortgages
                
Balance at beginning of period
   $ 91     $ 128     $ 253     $ 472     $ 92     $ 151     $ 256     $ 499  
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses
                
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions 
(1)
     3       (6 )      (21 )      (24 )      3       (5 )      (14 )      (16 ) 
Changes in model
     –       –       –       –       –       –       –       –  
Net remeasurement 
(2)
     (35 )      42       48       55       (41 )      46       27       32  
Transfers 
(2)
                
– to 12-month ECL
     38       (35 )      (3 )      –       40       (40 )      –       –  
– to lifetime ECL performing
     (2 )      6       (4 )      –       (3 )      4       (1 )      –  
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
     –       (3 )      3       –       –       (2 )      2       –  
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(3)
     4       4       23       31       (1 )      3       14       16  
Write-offs
     –       –       (2 )      (2 )      –       –       (8 )      (8 ) 
Recoveries
     –       –       –       –       –       –       3       3  
Interest income on impaired loans
     –       –       (9 )      (9 )      –       –       (9 )      (9 ) 
Foreign exchange and other
     (3 )      –       (7 )      (10 )      –       (1 )      2       1  
Balance at end of period
   $ 92     $ 132     $ 258     $ 482     $ 91     $ 153     $ 258     $ 502  
Personal
                
Balance at beginning of period
   $ 228     $ 680     $ 187     $ 1,095     $ 175     $ 724     $ 196     $ 1,095  
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses
                
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions 
(1)
     9       (14 )      (7 )      (12 )      8       (14 )      (10 )      (16 ) 
Changes in model
     5       21       –       26       –       –       –       –  
Net remeasurement 
(2)
       (198 )     171       148       121       (133 )      149       121       137  
Transfers 
(2)
                
– to 12-month ECL
     211       (208 )      (3 )      –       143       (142 )      (1 )      –  
– to lifetime ECL performing
     (10 )      14       (4 )      –       (18 )      20       (2 )      –  
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
     (1 )      (17 )      18       –       –       (25 )      25       –  
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(3)
     16       (33 )      152       135       –       (12 )      133       121  
Write-offs
     –       –       (149 )      (149 )      –       –       (146 )      (146 ) 
Recoveries
     –       –       24       24       –       –       15       15  
Interest income on impaired loans
     –       –       (2 )      (2 )      –       –       (2 )      (2 ) 
Foreign exchange and other
     (2 )      –       (6 )      (8 )      4       –       (3 )      1  
Balance at end of period
   $ 242     $ 647     $ 206     $ 1,095     $ 179     $ 712     $ 193     $ 1,084  
Credit card
                
Balance at beginning of period
   $ 277     $ 683     $ –     $ 960     $ 184     $ 608     $ –     $ 792  
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses
                
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions 
(1)
     9       (10 )      –       (1 )      5       (2 )      –       3  
Changes in model
     –       –       –       –       –       –       –       –  
Net remeasurement 
(2)
     (225 )      351       92       218       (72 )      172       111       211  
Transfers 
(2)
                
– to 12-month ECL
     250       (250 )      –       –       96       (96 )      –       –  
– to lifetime ECL performing
     (19 )      19       –       –       (20 )      20       –       –  
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
     (1 )      (91 )      92       –       –       (54 )      54       –  
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(3)
     14       19       184       217       9       40       165       214  
Write-offs
     –       –       (221 )      (221 )      –       –       (198 )      (198 ) 
Recoveries
     –       –       37       37       –       –       33       33  
Interest income on impaired loans
     –       –       –       –       –       –       –       –  
Foreign exchange and other
     –       –       –       –       –       –       –       –  
Balance at end of period
   $ 291     $ 702     $ –     $ 993     $ 193     $ 648     $ –     $ 841  
Business and government
                
Balance at beginning of period
   $ 320     $   1,057     $    472     $   1,849     $    312     $ 953     $ 435     $ 1,700  
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses
                
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions 
(1)
     7       (23 )      (12 )      (28 )      2       (32 )      (9 )      (39 ) 
Changes in model
     1       2       –       3       –       –       –       –  
Net remeasurement 
(2)
     3       139       105       247       (43 )      129       85       171  
Transfers 
(2)
                
– to 12-month ECL
     30       (29 )      (1 )      –       55       (50 )      (5 )      –  
– to lifetime ECL performing
     (15 )      16       (1 )      –       (9 )      11       (2 )      –  
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
     –       (13 )      13       –       –       (23 )      23       –  
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(3)
     26       92       104       222       5       35       92       132  
Write-offs
     –       –       (85 )      (85 )      –       –       (142 )      (142 ) 
Recoveries
     –       –       3       3       –       –       18       18  
Interest income on impaired loans
     –       –       (24 )      (24 )      –       –       (20 )      (20 ) 
Foreign exchange and other
     (13 )      (46 )      (21 )      (80 )      (6 )      3       6       3  
Balance at end of period
   $ 333     $ 1,103     $ 449     $ 1,885     $ 311     $ 991     $ 389     $ 1,691  
Total ECL allowance
 
(4)
   $ 958     $ 2,584     $ 913     $ 4,455     $ 774     $   2,504     $    840     $   4,118  
Comprises:
                
Loans
   $ 844     $ 2,443     $ 904     $ 4,191     $ 684     $ 2,407     $ 829     $ 3,920  
Undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures
(5)
     114       141       9       264       90       97       11       198  
See previous page for footnote references.
$ millions, as at or for the nine months ended  
2025
Jul. 31
    
2024
Jul. 31
  
   
Stage 1
    
Stage 2
    
Stage 3
           Stage 1     Stage 2     Stage 3        
    
Collective
provision
12-month
ECL
performing
    
Collective
provision
lifetime
ECL
performing
    
Collective and
individual
provision
lifetime ECL
credit-impaired
    
Total
     Collective
provision
12-month

ECL
performing		     Collective
provision
lifetime
ECL
performing		     Collective and
individual
provision
lifetime ECL
credit-impaired
     Total  
Residential mortgages
                
Balance at beginning of period
  
$
89
 
  
$
126
 
  
$
234
 
  
$
449
 
   $ 90     $ 142     $ 224     $ 456  
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses
                
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions 
(1)
  
 
11
 
  
 
(15
)
  
 
(55
)
  
 
(59
)
     11       (11 )      (35 )      (35 ) 
Changes in model
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
     –       4       11       15  
Net remeasurement 
(2)
  
 
(97
)
  
 
131
 
  
 
164
 
  
 
198
 
       (79 )     90       83       94  
Transfers 
(2)
                
– to 12-month ECL
  
 
104
 
  
 
    (98
)
  
 
(6
)
  
 
–
 
     76       (75 )      (1 )      –  
– to lifetime ECL performing
  
 
(7
)
  
 
21
 
  
 
(14
)
  
 
–
 
     (7 )      10       (3 )      –  
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
  
 
–
 
  
 
(7
)
  
 
7
 
  
 
–
 
     –       (6 )      6       –  
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(3)
  
 
11
 
  
 
32
 
  
 
96
 
  
 
139
 
     1       12       61       74  
Write-offs
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
(9
)
  
 
(9
)
     –       –       (15 )      (15 ) 
Recoveries
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
6
 
  
 
6
 
     –       –       7       7  
Interest income on impaired loans
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
(27
)
  
 
(27
)
     –       –       (21 )      (21 ) 
Foreign exchange and other
  
 
(1
)
  
 
–
 
  
 
(2
)
  
 
(3
)
     –       (1 )      2       1  
Balance at end of period
  
$
99
 
  
$
158
 
  
$
      298
 
  
$
555
 
   $ 91     $ 153     $ 258     $ 502  
Personal
                
Balance at beginning of period
  
$
      247
 
  
$
546
 
  
$
190
 
  
$
983
 
   $ 174     $ 709     $ 181     $ 1,064  
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses
                
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions 
(1)
  
 
30
 
  
 
(30
)
  
 
(21
)
  
 
(21
)
     23       (43 )      (30 )      (50 ) 
Changes in model
  
 
(15
)
  
 
97
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
82
 
     –       –       –       –  
Net remeasurement 
(2)
  
 
(429
)
  
 
558
 
  
 
367
 
  
 
496
 
     (398 )      487       339       428  
Transfers 
(2)
                
– to 12-month ECL
  
 
473
 
  
 
(467
)
  
 
(6
)
  
 
–
 
     427       (426 )      (1 )      –  
– to lifetime ECL performing
  
 
(54
)
  
 
72
 
  
 
(18
)
  
 
–
 
     (52 )      56       (4 )      –  
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
  
 
(3
)
  
 
(53
)
  
 
56
 
  
 
–
 
     –       (72 )      72       –  
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(3)
  
 
2
 
  
 
177
 
  
 
378
 
  
 
557
 
     –       2       376       378  
Write-offs
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
(433
)
  
 
(433
)
     –       –       (404 )      (404 ) 
Recoveries
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
60
 
  
 
60
 
     –       –       47       47  
Interest income on impaired loans
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
(6
)
  
 
(6
)
     –       –       (5 )      (5 ) 
Foreign exchange and other
  
 
4
 
  
 
(3
)
  
 
(5
)
  
 
(4
)
     5       1       (2 )      4  
Balance at end of period
  
$
253
 
  
$
720
 
  
$
184
 
  
$
1,157
 
   $ 179     $ 712     $ 193     $ 1,084  
Credit card
                
Balance at beginning of period
  
$
295
 
  
$
660
 
  
$
–
 
  
$
955
 
   $ 181     $ 591     $ –     $ 772  
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses
                
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions 
(1)
  
 
28
 
  
 
(24
)
  
 
–
 
  
 
4
 
     17       (26 )      –       (9 ) 
Changes in model
  
 
(26
)
  
 
32
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
6
 
     –       –       –       –  
Net remeasurement 
(2)
  
 
(583
)
  
 
828
 
  
 
297
 
  
 
542
 
     (260 )      498       284       522  
Transfers 
(2)
                
– to 12-month ECL
  
 
683
 
  
 
(683
)
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
     308       (308 )      –       –  
– to lifetime ECL performing
  
 
(58
)
  
 
58
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
     (53 )      53       –       –  
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
  
 
(2
)
  
 
(245
)
  
 
247
 
  
 
–
 
     –       (160 )      160       –  
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(3)
  
 
42
 
  
 
(34
)
  
 
544
 
  
 
552
 
     12       57       444       513  
Write-offs
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
(657
)
  
 
(657
)
     –       –       (535 )      (535 ) 
Recoveries
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
113
 
  
 
113
 
     –       –       91       91  
Interest income on impaired loans
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
     –       –       –       –  
Foreign exchange and other
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
     –       –       –       –  
Balance at end of period
  
$
337
 
  
$
626
 
  
$
–
 
  
$
963
 
   $ 193     $ 648     $ –     $ 841  
Business and government
                
Balance at beginning of period
  
$
265
 
  
$
1,061
 
  
$
401
 
  
$
1,727
 
   $ 294     $ 864     $ 667     $ 1,825  
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses
                
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions 
(1)
  
 
35
 
  
 
(57
)
  
 
(47
)
  
 
(69
)
     14       (54 )      (30 )      (70 ) 
Changes in model
  
 
85
 
  
 
(82
)
  
 
–
 
  
 
3
 
     12       29       –       41  
Net remeasurement 
(2)
  
 
(44
)
  
 
302
 
  
 
297
 
  
 
555
 
     (107 )      404       349       646  
Transfers 
(2)
                
– to 12-month ECL
  
 
116
 
  
 
(112
)
  
 
(4
)
  
 
–
 
     139       (129 )      (10 )      –  
– to lifetime ECL performing
  
 
(31
)
  
 
36
 
  
 
(5
)
  
 
–
 
     (31 )      36       (5 )      –  
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
  
 
–
 
  
 
(131
)
  
 
131
 
  
 
–
 
     –       (158 )      158       –  
Total provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(3)
  
 
161
 
  
 
(44
)
  
 
372
 
  
 
489
 
     27       128       462       617  
Write-offs
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
(256
)
  
 
(256
)
     –       –       (749 )      (749 ) 
Recoveries
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
30
 
  
 
30
 
     –       –       67       67  
Interest income on impaired loans
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
(69
)
  
 
(69
)
     –       –       (64 )      (64 ) 
Foreign exchange and other
  
 
(4
)
  
 
(4
)
  
 
–
 
  
 
(8
)
     (10 )      (1 )      6       (5 ) 
Balance at end of period
  
$
422
 
  
$
1,013
 
  
$
478
 
  
$
1,913
 
   $ 311     $ 991     $ 389     $ 1,691  
Total ECL allowance 
(4)
  
$
1,111
 
  
$
2,517
 
  
$
960
 
  
$
4,588
 
   $ 774     $ 2,504     $ 840     $ 4,118  
Comprises:
                
Loans
  
$
992
 
  
$
  2,341
 
  
$
952
 
  
$
  4,285
 
   $    684     $   2,407     $    829     $   3,920  
Undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures 
(5)
  
 
119
 
  
 
176
 
  
 
8
 
  
 
303
 
     90       97       11       198  
See previous pages for footnote references.
 
Inputs, assumptions and model techniques
We continue to operate in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. There is inherent uncertainty in forecasting forward-looking information and estimating the impact that the macroeconomic environment, including the level and duration of tariffs between the U.S., Canada and other major trading partners, the impact that tariffs may have on economic growth and inflation in Canada and the U.S. and fiscal and monetary policies that may be enacted in response to tariffs, as well as geopolitical events, will have on the level of ECL allowance and period-over-period volatility of the provision for credit losses. As a result, a heightened level of judgment in estimating ECLs in respect of all these elements, as discussed below, continued to be required. See Note 5 to our consolidated financial statements in our 2024 Annual Report and Note 2 to our interim consolidated financial statements for additional information concerning the significant estimates and credit judgment inherent in the estimation of ECL allowances.
The following tables provide the base case, upside case and downside case scenario forecasts for select forward-looking information variables used to estimate our ECL.
 
    Base case     Upside case     Downside case  
As at July 31, 2025    

 		 Average
value over
the next
12 months		  
 
 
 		    

 		 Average
value over
the remaining
forecast period		  
 
 
 
(1)
 		    

 		 Average
value over
the next
12 months		  
 
 
 		    

 		 Average
value over
the remaining
forecast period		  
 
 
 
(1)
 		    

 		 Average
value over
the next
12 months		  
 
 
 		     

 		 Average
value over
the remaining
forecast period		  
 
 
 
(1)
 
Real gross domestic product (GDP) year-over-year growth
             
Canada 
(2)
  
 
1.0
 % 
  
 
1.9
 % 
  
 
2.0
 % 
  
 
2.5
 % 
  
 
(1.2
)%
   
 
1.1
 % 
United States
  
 
1.9
 % 
  
 
1.9
 % 
  
 
3.2
 % 
  
 
2.8
 % 
  
 
(0.3
)%
   
 
1.1
 % 
Unemployment rate
             
Canada 
(2)
  
 
6.8
 % 
  
 
6.3
 % 
  
 
6.1
 % 
  
 
5.7
 % 
  
 
7.9
 % 
   
 
7.0
 % 
United States
  
 
4.5
 % 
  
 
4.1
 % 
  
 
3.7
 % 
  
 
3.4
 % 
  
 
5.0
 % 
   
 
4.6
 % 
Canadian Housing Price Index year-over-year growth 
(2)
  
 
0.4
 % 
  
 
2.8
 % 
  
 
4.7
 % 
  
 
4.9
 % 
  
 
(4.2
)%
   
 
(0.4
)%
Canadian household debt service ratio
  
 
14.5
 % 
  
 
14.6
 % 
  
 
14.1
 % 
  
 
14.3
 % 
  
 
15.7
 % 
   
 
15.4
 % 
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
  
$
69
  
  
$
71
  
  
$
73
  
  
$
85
  
  
$
55
  
   
$
60
  
As at April 30, 2025  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Real GDP year-over-year growth
             
Canada 
(2)
     0.8  %      2.0  %      2.0  %      2.7  %      (0.3 )%       1.1  % 
United States
     1.7  %      2.0  %      3.2  %      2.9  %      0.6  %       0.9  % 
Unemployment rate
             
Canada 
(2)
     6.9  %      6.2  %      6.2  %      5.5  %      8.0  %       7.0  % 
United States
     4.5  %      4.1  %      3.8  %      3.4  %      4.9  %       4.6  % 
Canadian Housing Price Index year-over-year growth 
(2)
     1.5  %      3.0  %      4.7  %      5.7  %      (2.7 )%       1.4  % 
Canadian household debt service ratio
     14.6  %      14.7  %      14.1  %      14.3  %      15.2  %       15.1  % 
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
   $     73        $     74        $     82        $    100        $     60         $     60     
As at October 31, 2024  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Real GDP year-over-year growth
             
Canada 
(2)
     1.6  %      2.3  %      2.5  %      2.7  %      0.4  %       1.4  % 
United States
     2.0  %      2.0  %      3.0  %      2.9  %      0.7  %       0.9  % 
Unemployment rate
             
Canada 
(2)
     6.6  %      5.9  %      5.7  %      5.2  %      7.2  %       6.8  % 
United States
     4.5  %      4.0  %      3.7  %      3.3  %      5.1  %       4.7  % 
Canadian Housing Price Index year-over-year growth 
(2)
     2.6  %      2.5  %      7.1  %      4.0  %      (2.3 )%       0.9  % 
Canadian household debt service ratio
     14.8  %      14.8  %      14.4  %      14.7  %      15.3  %       15.2  % 
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
   $ 78        $ 74        $ 88        $ 100        $ 60         $ 61     
(1)
The remaining forecast period is generally four years.
(2)
National-level forward-looking forecasts are presented in the table above, which represent the aggregation of the provincial-level forecasts used to estimate our ECL. Housing Price Index growth rates are also forecasted at the municipal level in some cases. As a result, the forecasts for individual provinces or municipalities reflected in our ECL will differ from the national forecasts presented above.
As required, the forward-looking information used to estimate ECLs reflects our expectations and uncertainties as at July 31, 2025, April 30, 2025, and October 31, 2024, respectively, and does not reflect changes in expectations that may have subsequently arisen. The base case, upside case and downside case amounts shown represent the average value of the forecasts over the respective projection horizons.
Our underlying base case projection as at July 31, 2025 is characterized by slow real GDP growth and elevated unemployment rates in Canada, and slightly stronger growth in the U.S. Compared to October 31, 2024, our base case projections for Canada and the U.S. as at July 31, 2025 reflect the negative impact from tariffs and trade uncertainty in the near term, and the partial easing of tariffs by 2026, but not to levels that existed prior to the announcements of the new U.S. administration. Our base case also assumes that interest rates will decline by the fall of 2025, but remain at higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Our downside case forecast assumes a recession in the near term and slower growth thereafter in Canada due to increasing economic uncertainty. Our downside case forecast as at July 31, 2025 is consistent with a more pronounced and longer lasting trade dispute between Canada and the U.S., including higher unemployment rates in Canada and lower business capital and consumer spending. The downside case forecast for the U.S. also assumes a recession in the near term and reflects slower recoveries thereafter to lower levels of sustained economic activity and persistently higher unemployment rates. The upside scenario continues to reflect a better economic environment than the base case forecast.
As indicated above, forecasting forward-looking information for multiple scenarios and determining the probability weighting of the scenarios involves a high degree of management judgment. To address the significant uncertainties inherent in the current environment, we continue to utilize management overlays with respect to the impact of certain forward-looking information and credit metrics that are not expected to be as indicative of the credit condition of the portfolios as the historical experience in our models would have otherwise suggested. The use of management overlays requires the application of significant judgment that impacts the amount of ECL allowances recognized.
 
If we were to only use our base case scenario for the measurement of ECL for our performing loans, our ECL allowance would be $496 million lower than the recognized ECL as at July 31, 2025 (October 31, 2024: $246 million). If we were to only use our downside case scenario for the measurement of ECL for our performing loans, our ECL allowance would be $1,021 million higher than the recognized ECL as at July 31, 2025 (October 31, 2024: $737 million). This sensitivity is isolated to the measurement of ECL and therefore did not consider changes in the migration of exposures between stage 1 and stage 2 from the determination of the significant increase in credit risk that would have resulted in a 100% base case scenario or a 100% downside case scenario. As a result, our ECL allowance on performing loans could exceed the amount implied by the 100% downside case scenario from the migration of additional exposures from stage 1 to stage 2. Actual credit losses could differ materially from those reflected in our estimates.
The following tables provide the gross carrying amount of loans, and the contractual amounts of undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures based on our risk management probability of default (PD) bands for retail exposures, and based on our internal risk ratings for business and government exposures. Refer to the “Credit risk” section of our 2024 Annual Report for details on the CIBC risk categories.
Loans
(1)
$ millions, as at
         
2025
Jul. 31
             2024
Oct. 31		  
   
 
Stage 1
 
   
 
Stage 2
 
   
 
Stage 3
 
(2)
 
  
 
Total
 
      Stage 1        Stage 2        Stage 3  
(2)
   Total  
Residential mortgages
                     
– Exceptionally low
  
$
171,858
 
   
$
124
 
   
$
–
 
  
$
171,982
 
    $ 160,515      $ 6,130      $ –     $ 166,645  
– Very low
  
 
85,698
 
   
 
1,005
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
86,703
 
      81,198        5,926        –       87,124  
– Low
  
 
11,133
 
   
 
2,720
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
13,853
 
      10,329        3,638        –       13,967  
– Medium
  
 
1,065
 
   
 
6,646
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
7,711
 
      851        6,534        –       7,385  
– High
  
 
6
 
   
 
1,496
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
1,502
 
      7        1,561        –       1,568  
– Default
  
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
1,034
 
  
 
1,034
 
      –        –        790       790  
– Not rated
  
 
2,753
 
   
 
186
 
   
 
211
 
  
 
3,150
 
      2,757        232        204       3,193  
Gross residential mortgages 
(3)(4)
  
 
272,513
 
   
 
12,177
 
   
 
1,245
 
  
 
285,935
 
      255,657        24,021        994       280,672  
ECL allowance
  
 
99
 
   
 
158
 
   
 
298
 
  
 
555
 
      89        126        234       449  
Net residential mortgages
  
 
272,414
 
   
 
12,019
 
   
 
947
 
  
 
285,380
 
      255,568        23,895        760       280,223  
Personal
                     
– Exceptionally low
  
 
18,160
 
   
 
128
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
18,288
 
      16,689        83        –       16,772  
– Very low
  
 
10,582
 
   
 
277
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
10,859
 
      9,685        12        –       9,697  
– Low
  
 
6,561
 
   
 
2,107
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
8,668
 
      10,498        1,374        –       11,872  
– Medium
  
 
4,280
 
   
 
2,495
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
6,775
 
      3,848        1,822        –       5,670  
– High
  
 
747
 
   
 
886
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
1,633
 
      465        1,102        –       1,567  
– Default
  
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
249
 
  
 
249
 
      –        –        260       260  
– Not rated
  
 
722
 
   
 
30
 
   
 
35
 
  
 
787
 
      782        29        32       843  
Gross personal 
(4)
  
 
41,052
 
   
 
5,923
 
   
 
284
 
  
 
47,259
 
      41,967        4,422        292       46,681  
ECL allowance
  
 
230
 
   
 
664
 
   
 
184
 
  
 
1,078
 
      221        531        190       942  
Net personal
  
 
40,822
 
   
 
5,259
 
   
 
100
 
  
 
46,181
 
      41,746        3,891        102       45,739  
Credit card
                     
– Exceptionally low
  
 
7,189
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
7,189
 
      7,185        –        –       7,185  
– Very low
  
 
457
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
457
 
      502        –        –       502  
– Low
  
 
6,781
 
   
 
390
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
7,171
 
      6,800        4        –       6,804  
– Medium
  
 
4,718
 
   
 
1,067
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
5,785
 
      3,853        1,512        –       5,365  
– High
  
 
4
 
   
 
537
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
541
 
      2        522        –       524  
– Default
  
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
      –        –        –       –  
– Not rated
  
 
172
 
   
 
6
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
178
 
      165        6        –       171  
Gross credit card
  
 
19,321
 
   
 
2,000
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
21,321
 
      18,507        2,044        –       20,551  
ECL allowance
  
 
307
 
   
 
555
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
862
 
      279        623        –       902  
Net credit card
  
 
19,014
 
   
 
1,445
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
20,459
 
      18,228        1,421        –       19,649  
Business and government
                     
– Investment grade
  
 
114,274
 
   
 
747
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
115,021
 
      101,809        722        –       102,531  
– Non-investment grade
  
 
100,848
 
   
 
9,924
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
110,772
 
      97,131        9,000        –       106,131  
– Watchlist
  
 
49
 
   
 
3,577
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
3,626
 
      25        3,745        –       3,770  
– Default
  
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
1,752
 
  
 
1,752
 
      –        –        1,628       1,628  
– Not rated
  
 
231
 
   
 
12
 
   
 
–
 
  
 
243
 
      230        15        –       245  
Gross business and government 
(3)(5)
  
 
215,402
 
   
 
14,260
 
   
 
1,752
 
  
 
231,414
 
      199,195        13,482        1,628       214,305  
ECL allowance
  
 
356
 
   
 
964
 
   
 
470
 
  
 
1,790
 
      211        1,021        392       1,624  
Net business and government
  
 
215,046
 
   
 
13,296
 
   
 
1,282
 
  
 
229,624
 
      198,984        12,461        1,236       212,681  
Total net amount of loans
  
$
  547,296
 
   
$
  32,019
 
   
$
  2,329
 
  
$
  581,644
 
    $   514,526      $   41,668      $   2,098   $   558,292  
(1)
The table excludes debt securities measured at FVOCI, for which ECL allowances of $23 million (October 31, 2024: $19 million) were recognized in AOCI. In addition, the table excludes debt securities classified at amortized cost, for which ECL allowances of $40 million were recognized as at July 31, 2025 (October 31, 2024: $17 million). Other financial assets classified at amortized cost were also excluded from the table above as their ECL allowances were immaterial as at July 31, 2025 and October 31, 2024. Financial assets other than loans that are classified at amortized cost are presented on our interim consolidated balance sheet net of ECL allowances.
(2)
Excludes foreclosed assets of $6 million (October 31, 2024: $8 million) which were included in Other assets on our interim consolidated balance sheet.
(3)
Includes $5 million (October 31, 2024: $3 million) of residential mortgages and $459 million (October 31, 2024: $221 million) of business and government loans that are measured and designated at FVTPL.
(4)
The internal risk rating grades presented for residential mortgages and certain personal loans do not take into account loan guarantees or insurance issued by the Canadian government (federal or provincial), Canadian government agencies, or private insurers, as the determination of whether a significant increase in credit risk has occurred for these loans is based on relative changes in the loans’ lifetime PD without considering collateral or other credit enhancements.
(5)
Includes customers’ liability under acceptances of $8 million (October 31, 2024: $6 million).
 
Undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures
$ millions, as at
                          
2025
Jul. 31
                              2024
Oct. 31		  
    
Stage 1
     
Stage 2
     
Stage 3
     
Total
      Stage 1      Stage 2      Stage 3      Total  
Retail
                       
– Exceptionally low
  
$
173,343
 
   
$
182
 
   
$
–
 
   
$
173,525
 
    $ 164,577      $ 117      $ –      $ 164,694  
– Very low
  
 
14,431
 
   
 
480
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
14,911
 
      15,112        4        –        15,116  
– Low
  
 
14,949
 
   
 
1,768
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
16,717
 
      14,988        984        –        15,972  
– Medium
  
 
2,418
 
   
 
1,422
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
3,840
 
      2,263        1,280        –        3,543  
– High
  
 
507
 
   
 
423
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
930
 
      325        539        –        864  
– Default
  
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
46
 
   
 
46
 
      –        –        43        43  
– Not rated
  
 
602
 
   
 
8
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
610
 
      565        9        –        574  
Gross retail
  
 
206,250
 
   
 
4,283
 
   
 
46
 
   
 
210,579
 
      197,830        2,933        43        200,806  
ECL allowance
  
 
53
 
   
 
127
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
180
 
      42        52        –        94  
Net retail
  
 
206,197
 
   
 
4,156
 
   
 
46
 
   
 
210,399
 
      197,788        2,881        43        200,712  
Business and government
                       
– Investment grade
  
 
174,625
 
   
 
655
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
175,280
 
      156,560        571        –        157,131  
– Non-investment grade
  
 
75,201
 
   
 
2,987
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
78,188
 
      66,788        3,018        –        69,806  
– Watch list
  
 
57
 
   
 
845
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
902
 
      28        878        –        906  
– Default
  
 
–
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
224
 
   
 
224
 
      –        –        123        123  
– Not rated
  
 
1,012
 
   
 
56
 
   
 
–
 
   
 
1,068
 
      1,117        91        –        1,208  
Gross business and government
  
 
250,895
 
   
 
4,543
 
   
 
224
 
   
 
255,662
 
      224,493        4,558        123        229,174  
ECL allowance
  
 
66
 
   
 
49
 
   
 
8
 
   
 
123
 
      54        40        9        103  
Net business and government
  
 
250,829
 
   
 
4,494
 
   
 
216
 
   
 
255,539
 
      224,439        4,518        114        229,071  
Total net undrawn credit facilities and other
off-balance sheet exposures
  
$
  457,026
 
   
$
  8,650
 
   
$
  262
 
   
$
  465,938
 
    $   422,227      $   7,399      $   157      $   429,783