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Loans
9 Months Ended
Jul. 31, 2022
Text block [abstract]  
Loans
Note 6.    Loans
Allowance for credit losses
The following table provides a reconciliation of the opening balance to the closing balance of the ECL allowance:
 
$ millions, as at or for the three months ended
  
2022
Jul. 31
 
 
  
Stage 1
 
 
Stage 2
 
 
Stage 3
 
  
 
 
  
  
Collective
provision
12-month
ECL
performing
 
 
Collective
provision
lifetime
ECL
performing
 
 
Collective and
individual
provision
lifetime ECL
credit-impaired
 
  
Total
 
Residential mortgages
  
     
 
     
 
     
  
     
Balance at beginning of period
  
$
     68
 
  
$
     72
 
  
$
     176
 
  
$
     316
 
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions
  
 
5
 
  
 
 
  
 
(6
)
  
 
(1
)
Changes in model
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
Net remeasurement 
(1)
  
 
(34
)
  
 
13
 
  
 
11
 
  
 
(10
)
Transfers 
(1)
      
 
                      
 
 
– to 12-month ECL
  
 
19
 
  
 
(17
)
  
 
(2
)
  
 
 
– to lifetime ECL performing
  
 
(3
)
  
 
6
 
  
 
(3
)
  
 
 
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
  
 
 
  
 
(4
)
  
 
4
 
  
 
 
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(2)
  
 
(13
)
  
 
(2
)   
 
4
 
  
 
(11
)
Write-offs
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
(17
)
  
 
(17
)
Recoveries
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
Interest income on impaired loans
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
(3
)
  
 
(3
)
Foreign exchange and other
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
(1
)
  
 
(1
)
Balance at end of period
  
$
55
 
  
$
70
 
  
$
159
 
  
$
284
 
Personal
      
 
                      
 
 
Balance at beginning of period
  
$
149
 
  
$
567
 
  
$
128
 
  
$
844
 
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions
  
 
10
 
  
 
(14
)
  
 
(4
)
  
 
(8
)
Changes in model
  
 
 
  
 
19
 
  
 
 
  
 
19
 
Net remeasurement
 
(1)
  
 
(61
)
  
 
125
 
  
 
50
 
  
 
114
 
Transfers 
(1)
      
 
                      
 
 
– to 12-month ECL
  
 
48
 
  
 
(47
)
  
 
(1
)
  
 
 
– to lifetime ECL performing
  
 
(9
)
  
 
13
 
  
 
(4
)   
 
 
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
  
 
 
  
 
(24
)   
 
24
 
  
 
 
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses
 
(2)
  
 
(12
)
  
 
72
 
  
 
65
 
  
 
125
 
Write-offs
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
(80
)   
 
(80
)
Recoveries
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
16
 
  
 
16
 
Interest income on impaired loans
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
(1
)   
 
(1
)
Foreign exchange and other
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
Balance at end of period
  
$
137
 
  
$
639
 
  
$
128
 
  
$
904
 
Credit card
      
 
                      
 
 
Balance at beginning of period
  
$
193
 
  
$
550
 
  
$
 
  
$
743
 
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions
 
  
 
6
 
  
 
(7
)   
 
 
  
 
(1
)
Changes in model
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
Net remeasurement 
(1)
  
 
(156
)
  
 
212
 
  
 
43
 
  
 
99
 
Transfers
 
(1)
      
 
                      
 
 
– to 12-month ECL
  
 
119
 
  
 
(119
)   
 
 
  
 
 
– to lifetime ECL performing
  
 
(16
)
  
 
16
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
  
 
 
  
 
(33
)   
 
33
 
  
 
 
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(2)
  
 
(47
)
  
 
69
 
  
 
76
 
  
 
98
 
Write-offs
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
(104
)   
 
(104
)
Recoveries
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
28
 
  
 
28
 
Interest income on impaired loans
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
Foreign exchange and other
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
Balance at end of period
  
$
146
 
  
$
619
 
  
$
 
  
$
765
 
Business and government
      
 
                      
 
 
Balance at beginning of period
  
$
261
 
  
$
414
 
  
$
377
 
  
$
1,052
 
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions
  
 
7
 
  
 
(2
)
  
 
(16
)
  
 
(11
)
Changes in model
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
Net remeasurement 
(1)
  
 
(31
)
  
 
44
 
  
 
29
 
  
 
42
 
Transfers 
(1)
      
 
                      
 
 
– to 12-month ECL
  
 
16
 
  
 
(13
)   
 
(3
)   
 
 
– to lifetime ECL performing
  
 
(12
)
  
 
12
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
  
 
 
  
 
(1
)   
 
1
 
  
 
 
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses
 
(2)
  
 
(20
)
  
 
40
 
  
 
11
 
  
 
31
 
Write-offs
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
(41
)   
 
(41
)
Recoveries
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
10
 
  
 
10
 
Interest income on impaired loans
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
(4
)   
 
(4
)
Foreign exchange and other
  
 
(2
)
  
 
 
  
 
3
 
  
 
1
 
Balance at end of period
  
$
239
 
  
$
454
 
  
$
356
 
  
$
1,049
 
Total ECL allowance
 
(
3
)
  
$
577
 
  
$
1,782
 
  
$
643
 
  
$
3,002
 
Comprises:
      
 
                      
 
 
Loans
  
$
    493
 
  
$
    1,687
 
  
$
     643
 
  
$
    2,823
 
Undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures 
(
4
)
  
 
84
 
  
 
95
 
  
 
 
  
 
179
 
(1)
Transfers represent stage movements of prior period ECL allowances to the current period stage classification. Net remeasurement represents the current period change in ECL allowances for transfers, net write-offs, changes in forecasts of forward-looking information, parameter updates, and partial repayments in the period.
(2)
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses for loans and undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures is presented as Provision for (reversal of) credit losses on our interim consolidated statement of income.
(3)
See Note 5 for the ECL allowance on debt securities measured at FVOCI. The table above excludes the ECL allowance on debt securities classified at amortized cost of $13 million as at July 31, 2022 (April 30, 2022: $13 million; July 31, 2021: $15 million), $11 million of which was stage 3 ECL allowance on originated credit-impaired amortized cost debt securities (April 30, 2022: $11 million; July 31, 2021: $13 million). The ECL allowances for other financial assets classified at amortized cost were immaterial as at July 31, 2022, April 30, 2022 and July 31, 2021 and were excluded from the table above. Financial assets other than loans that are classified at amortized cost are presented on our interim consolidated balance sheet net of ECL allowances.
(4)
Included in Other liabilities on our interim consolidated balance sheet.
(5)
Includes ECL allowances of $63 million recognized immediately after the acquisition of the Canadian Costco credit card portfolio on March 4, 2022.
$ millions, as at or for the three months ended
 
2022
Apr. 30
 
 
2021
Jul. 31
 
 
 
Stage 1
 
 
Stage 2
 
 
Stage 3
 
 
 
 
 
Stage 1
 
 
Stage 2
 
 
Stage 3
 
 
 
 
  
 
Collective
provision
12-month
ECL
performing
 
 
Collective
provision
lifetime
ECL
performing
 
 
Collective and
individual
provision
lifetime ECL
credit-impaired
 
 
Total
 
 
Collective
provision
12-month

ECL
performing
 
 
Collective
provision
lifetime
ECL
performing
 
 
Collective and
individual
provision
lifetime ECL
credit-impaired
 
 
Total
 
Residential mortgages
 
     
 
     
 
     
 
     
 
     
 
     
 
     
 
     
Balance at beginning of period
  $     64     $     76     $     163     $     303     $ 60     $ 119     $ 171     $ 350  
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions
    5             (6     (1     3       (3     (9     (9
Changes in model
    (4     (1           (5     2       (10     6       (2
Net remeasurement 
(1)
    (20     18       42       40       (48     11       3       (34
Transfers 
(1)
                                                               
– to 12-month ECL
    25       (23     (2           39       (36     (3      
– to lifetime ECL performing
    (2     4       (2           (2     6       (4      
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
          (3     3                   (2     2        
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(2)
    4       (5 )     35       34       (6     (34     (5     (45
Write-offs
                (20     (20                 (7     (7
Recoveries
                                               
Interest income on impaired loans
                (4     (4                 (4     (4
Foreign exchange and other
          1       2       3       1       1       3       5  
Balance at end of period
  $ 68     $ 72     $ 176     $ 316     $ 55     $ 86     $ 158     $ 299  
Personal
                                                               
Balance at beginning of period
  $ 147     $ 554     $ 113     $ 814     $ 155     $ 495     $ 115     $ 765  
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions
    9       (11     (2     (4     7       (7     (3     (3
Changes in model
    1                   1       (4     (1     2       (3
Net remeasurement 
(1)
    (89     121       45       77       (46     130       41       125  
Transfers 
(1)
                                                               
– to 12-month ECL
    91       (89     (2           61       (60     (1      
– to lifetime ECL performing
    (10     15       (5           (13     16       (3      
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
          (23     23                   (7     7        
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(2)
    2       13       59       74       5       71       43       119  
Write-offs
                (61     (61                 (67     (67
Recoveries
                18       18                   19       19  
Interest income on impaired loans
                (1     (1                 (1     (1
Foreign exchange and other
                            1                   1  
Balance at end of period
  $ 149     $ 567     $ 128     $ 844     $ 161     $ 566     $ 109     $ 836  
Credit card
                                                               
Balance at beginning of period
  $ 127     $ 510     $     $ 637     $ 163     $ 451     $     $ 614  
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions 
(5)
    65       (10           55             (12           (12
Changes in model
                                               
Net remeasurement 
(1)
    (79     159       40       120       (77     63       17       3  
Transfers 
(1)
                                                               
– to 12-month ECL
    98       (98                 83       (83            
– to lifetime ECL performing
    (18     18                   (6     6              
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
          (29     29                   (43     43        
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(2)
    66       40       69       175             (69     60       (9
Write-offs
                (98     (98                 (92     (92
Recoveries
                29       29                   32       32  
Interest income on impaired loans
                                               
Foreign exchange and other
                                               
Balance at end of period
  $ 193     $ 550     $     $ 743     $ 163     $ 382     $     $ 545  
Business and government
                                                               
Balance at beginning of period
  $ 278     $ 405     $ 521     $ 1,204     $ 370     $ 619     $ 620     $ 1,609  
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions
    3       (4     (7     (8     2       (7     (24     (29
Changes in model
    (13     (6 )           (19     (12     (26     1       (37
Net remeasurement 
(1)
    (33     40       40       47       (103     (42     47       (98
Transfers 
(1)
                                                               
– to 12-month ECL
    27       (25     (2           40       (30     (10      
– to lifetime ECL performing
    (4     5       (1           (19     26       (7      
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
          (3     3                   (3     3        
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(2)
    (20     7       33       20       (92     (82     10       (164
Write-offs
                (186     (186                 (99     (99
Recoveries
                12       12                   3       3  
Interest income on impaired loans
                (4     (4                 (6     (6
Foreign exchange and other
    3       2       1       6       2       6       15       23  
Balance at end of period
  $ 261     $ 414     $ 377     $ 1,052     $ 280     $ 543     $ 543     $ 1,366  
Total ECL allowance
 
(3)
  $ 671     $ 1,603     $ 681     $ 2,955     $ 659     $ 1,577     $ 810     $ 3,046  
Comprises:
                                                               
Loans
  $     597     $     1,545     $     681     $     2,823     $     593     $     1,526     $     807     $     2,926  
Undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures 
(4)
    74       58             132       66       51       3       120  
See previous page for footnote references.
 
$ millions, as at or for the nine months ended
 
2022
Jul. 31
 
 
2021
Jul. 31
 
 
 
Stage 1
 
 
Stage 2
 
 
Stage 3
 
 
 
 
 
Stage 1
 
 
Stage 2
 
 
Stage 3
 
 
 
 
  
 
Collective
provision
12-month
ECL
performing
 
 
Collective
provision
lifetime
ECL
performing
 
 
Collective and
individual
provision
lifetime ECL
credit-impaired
 
 
Total
 
 
Collective
provision
12-month

ECL
performing
 
 
Collective
provision
lifetime
ECL
performing
 
 
Collective and
individual
provision
lifetime ECL
credit-impaired
 
 
Total
 
Residential mortgages
 
     
 
     
 
     
 
     
 
     
 
     
 
     
 
     
Balance at beginning of period
 
$
    59
 
 
$
    63
 
 
$
    158
 
  
$
    280
 
  $ 51     $ 161     $ 151     $ 363  
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions
 
 
14
 
 
 
(4
)  
 
(17
)   
 
(7
)     13       (11     (16     (14
Changes in model
 
 
(4
)  
 
(1
)  
 
 
  
 
(5
)     2       (10     22       14  
Net remeasurement 
(1)
 
 
(73
)  
 
67
 
 
 
68
 
  
 
62
 
    (105     31       53       (21
Transfers 
(1)
                                                                
– to 12-month ECL
 
 
65
 
 
 
(60
)  
 
(5
)   
 
 
    103       (89     (14      
– to lifetime ECL performing
 
 
(7
)  
 
13
 
 
 
(6
)   
 
 
    (7     23       (16      
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
 
 
 
 
 
(9
)  
 
9
 
  
 
 
          (13     13        
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(2)
 
 
(5
)  
 
6
 
 
 
49
 
  
 
50
 
    6       (69     42       (21
Write-offs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(41
)   
 
(41
)                 (19     (19
Recoveries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
 
  
 
1
 
                2       2  
Interest income on impaired loans
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(11
)   
 
(11
)                 (13     (13
Foreign exchange and other
 
 
1
 
 
 
1
 
 
 
3
 
  
 
5
 
    (2     (6     (5     (13
Balance at end of period
 
$
55
 
 
$
70
 
 
$
159
 
  
$
284
 
  $ 55     $ 86     $ 158     $ 299  
Personal
                                                                
Balance at beginning of period
 
$
150
 
 
$
547
 
 
$
106
 
  
$
803
 
  $ 204     $ 546     $ 113     $ 863  
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions
 
 
27
 
 
 
(37
)  
 
(7
)   
 
(17
)     29       (36     (7     (14
Changes in model
 
 
1
 
 
 
19
 
 
 
 
  
 
20
 
    (7           1       (6
Net remeasurement 
(1)
 
 
(251
)  
 
362
 
 
 
138
 
  
 
249
 
    (254     263       148       157  
Transfers 
(1)
                                                                
– to 12-month ECL
 
 
239
 
 
 
(236
)  
 
(3
)   
 
 
    223       (217     (6      
– to lifetime ECL performing
 
 
(29
)  
 
41
 
 
 
(12
)   
 
 
    (32     45       (13      
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
 
 
 
 
 
(57
)  
 
57
 
  
 
 
          (35     35        
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(2)
 
 
(13
)  
 
92
 
 
 
173
 
  
 
252
 
    (41     20       158       137  
Write-offs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(204
)   
 
(204
)                 (211     (211
Recoveries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
54
 
  
 
54
 
                54       54  
Interest income on impaired loans
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(3
)   
 
(3
)                 (3     (3
Foreign exchange and other
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2
 
  
 
2
 
    (2           (2     (4
Balance at end of period
 
$
137
 
 
$
639
 
 
$
128
 
  
$
904
 
  $ 161     $ 566     $ 109     $ 836  
Credit card
                                                                
Balance at beginning of period
 
$
136
 
 
$
517
 
 
$
 
  
$
653
 
  $ 136     $ 572     $     $ 708  
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions 
(
5
)
 
 
71
 
 
 
(27
)  
 
 
  
 
44
 
    (1     (56           (57
Changes in model
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
                       
Net remeasurement 
(1)
 
 
(341
)  
 
496
 
 
 
109
 
  
 
264
 
    (210     284       66       140  
Transfers 
(1)
                                                                
– to 12-month ECL
 
 
321
   
 
(321
)  
 
    
 
 
    260       (260            
– to lifetime ECL performing
 
 
(41
)  
 
41
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
    (22     22              
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
 
 
 
 
 
(87
)  
 
87
    
 
 
          (180     180        
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(2)
 
 
10
 
 
 
102
 
 
 
196
 
  
 
308
 
    27       (190     246       83  
Write-offs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(282
)   
 
(282
)                 (336     (336
Recoveries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
86
 
  
 
86
 
                90       90  
Interest income on impaired loans
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
                       
Foreign exchange and other
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
                       
Balance at end of period
 
$
146
 
 
$
619
 
 
$
 
  
$
765
 
  $ 163     $ 382     $     $ 545  
Business and government
                                                                
Balance at beginning of period
 
$
277
 
 
$
449
 
 
$
508
 
  
$
1,234
 
  $ 453     $ 683     $ 652     $ 1,788  
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions
 
 
30
 
 
 
(12
)  
 
(31
)   
 
(13
)     24       (32     (32     (40
Changes in model
 
 
(13
)  
 
2
 
 
 
 
  
 
(11
)     (12     (26     1       (37
Net remeasurement 
(1)
 
 
(130
)  
 
71
 
 
 
94
 
  
 
35
 
    (268     47       179       (42
Transfers 
(1)
                                                                
– to 12-month ECL
 
 
89
 
 
 
(82
)  
 
(7
)   
 
 
    163       (141     (22      
– to lifetime ECL performing
 
 
(20
)  
 
22
 
 
 
(2
)   
 
 
    (53     67       (14      
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired
 
 
 
 
 
(6
)  
 
6
 
  
 
 
    (4     (28     32        
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses 
(2)
 
 
(44
)  
 
(5
)  
 
60
 
  
 
11
 
    (150     (113     144       (119
Write-offs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(237
)   
 
(237
)                 (235     (235
Recoveries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
27
 
  
 
27
 
                11       11  
Interest income on impaired loans
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(11
)   
 
(11
)                 (17     (17
Foreign exchange and other
 
 
6
 
 
 
10
 
 
 
9
 
  
 
25
 
    (23     (27     (12     (62
Balance at end of period
 
$
239
 
 
$
454
 
 
$
356
 
  
$
1,049
 
  $ 280     $ 543     $ 543     $ 1,366  
Total ECL allowance
 
(
3
)
 
$
577
 
 
$
1,782
 
 
$
643
 
  
$
3,002
 
  $ 659     $ 1,577     $ 810     $ 3,046  
Comprises:
                                                                
Loans


$
    493
 
 
$
    1,687
 
 
$
    643
 
  
$
    2,823
 
 
$
    593
 
 
$
    1,526
 
 
$
    807
 
 
$
    2,926
 
Undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures 
(
4
)
 
 
84
 
 
 
95
 
 
 
 
  
 
179
 
    66       51       3       120  
See previous page
s
for footnote references.
 
Impact of acquisition of Canadian Costco credit card portfolio
No ECL allowance was recognized in the purchase equation on the acquisition date for the acquired Canadian Costco credit card portfolio as the purchased loans were initially measured at their acquisition date fair values. Instead, immediately after the acquisition date, ECL allowances were established in the Provision for credit losses in the interim consolidated statement of income based on classifying each acquired credit card receivable in stage 1, since the acquisition date is established as the initial recognition date of purchased performing loans for the purpose of assessing whether a significant increase in credit risk has occurred. On the date of acquisition, none of the acquired credit card receivables were considered to be impaired. Subsequent to the acquisition date, ECL allowances are estimated in a manner consistent with our significant increase in credit risk and impairment policies that we apply to loans that we originate. See Note 4 for further details on the acquisition of the Canadian Costco credit card portfolio.
Inputs, assumptions and model techniques
Global economic activity has slowed over the last two quarters of 2022 while we continue to operate in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. There is inherent uncertainty in estimating the impact that rising interest rates, inflation and supply chain disruptions exacerbated by the measures imposed in some countries to combat the spread of COVID-19 and geopolitical events, will have on the macroeconomic environment. As a result, a heightened level of judgment in estimating ECLs, including with respect to the forecasting of forward-looking information and the determination of scenario weightings, continued to be required this quarter. See Note 6 to our consolidated financial statements in our 2021 Annual Report and Note 2 to our interim consolidated financial statements for additional information concerning the significant estimates and credit judgment inherent in the estimation of ECL allowances.
The following tables provide the base case, upside case and downside case scenario forecasts for select forward-looking information variables used to estimate our ECL.
 
 
 
Base case
 
 
Upside case
 
 
Downside case
 
As at July 31, 2022
 
 


Average
value over
the next
12 months
 
 
 
 
 
 


Average
value over
the remaining
forecast period
 
 
 
 
(1)
 
 
 


Average
value over
the next
12 months
 
 
 
 
 
 


Average
value over
the remaining
forecast period
 
 
 
 
(1)
 
 
 


Average
value over
the next
12 months
 
 
 
 
  
 


Average
value over
the remaining
forecast period
 
 
 
 
(1)
 
Real gross domestic product (GDP) year-over-year growth
 
     
 
     
 
     
 
     
 
     
  
     
Canada 
(2)
 
 
2.5
 % 
 
 
1.8
 % 
 
 
4.2
 % 
 
 
2.8
 % 
 
 
1.1
 % 
  
 
1.1
 % 
United States
 
 
1.7
 % 
 
 
1.8
 % 
 
 
3.6
 % 
 
 
3.1
 % 
 
 
0.0
 % 
  
 
(0.1
)
Unemployment rate
                                                
Canada 
(2)
 
 
5.5
 % 
 
 
5.8
 % 
 
 
5.1
 % 
 
 
5.3
 % 
 
 
6.0
 % 
  
 
6.6
 % 
United States
 
 
3.8
 % 
 
 
3.9
 % 
 
 
3.2
 % 
 
 
3.3
 % 
 
 
4.6
 % 
  
 
4.7
 % 
Canadian Housing Price Index year-over-year growth 
(2)
 
 
3.8
 % 
 
 
0.9
 % 
 
 
13.1
 % 
 
 
6.3
 % 
 
 
(5.7
)
  
 
(6.6
)
Standard and Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index year-over-year growth rate
 
 
(0.5
)
%
 
 
5.4
 % 
 
 
6.3
 % 
 
 
9.8
 % 
 
 
(10.9
)
%
  
 
(8.8
)
Canadian household debt service ratio
 
 
14.8
 % 
 
 
14.9
 % 
 
 
14.1
 % 
 
 
14.5
 % 
 
 
15.3
 % 
  
 
15.1
 % 
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
 
$
           99
 
 
$
           84
 
 
$
           127
 
 
$
           123
 
 
$
           81
 
  
$
           57
 
 

    Base case     Upside case     Downside case  
As at April 30, 2022    

 
Average
value over
the next
12 months
 
 
 
 
   

 
Average
value over
the remaining
forecast period
 
 
 
 
(1)
 
   

 
Average
value over
the next
12 months
 
 
 
 
   

 
Average
value over
the remaining
forecast period
 
 
 
 
(1)
 
   

 
Average
value over
the next
12 months
 
 
 
 
    

 
Average
value over
the remaining
forecast period
 
 
 
 
(1)
 
Real GDP year-over-year growth
                                                
Canada 
(2)
    3.4  %      2.0  %      4.6  %      2.7  %      2.4  %       1.7  % 
United States
    3.2  %      2.1  %      4.3  %      3.1  %      1.1  %       0.2  % 
Unemployment rate
                                                
Canada 
(2)
    5.4  %      5.7  %      4.9  %      5.3  %      6.4  %       6.5  % 
United States
    3.6  %      3.7  %      3.1  %      3.0  %      5.0  %       4.9  % 
Canadian Housing Price Index year-over-year growth 
(2)
    7.2  %      2.0  %      15.1  %      4.7  %      (0.5 )%       (1.4 )% 
S&P 500 Index year-over-year growth rate
    1.9  %      5.0  %      5.9  %      8.5  %      (6.9 )%       (8.5 )% 
Canadian household debt service ratio
    15.0  %      15.1  %      14.5  %      14.8  %      15.4  %       15.2  % 
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
  $         93     $         76     $       126     $       124     $         67      $         54  
 
    Base case     Upside case     Downside case  
As at October 31, 2021    

 
Average
value over
the next
12 months
 
 
 
 
   

 
Average
value over
the remaining
forecast period
 
 
 
 
(1)
 
   

 
Average
value over
the next
12 months
 
 
 
 
   

 
Average
value over
the remaining
forecast period
 
 
 
 
(1)
 
   

 
Average
value over
the next
12 months
 
 
 
 
    

 
Average
value over
the remaining
forecast period
 
 
 
 
(1)
 
Real GDP year-over-year growth
                                                
Canada 
(2)
    4.2  %      2.4  %      5.6  %      2.8  %      3.1  %       1.6  % 
United States
    4.7  %      2.2  %      5.8  %      3.3  %      2.8  %       1.3  % 
Unemployment rate
                                                
Canada 
(2)
    6.4  %      5.9  %      6.0  %      5.5  %      7.3  %       6.8  % 
United States
    4.4  %      3.9  %      3.8  %      3.4  %      6.0  %       5.0  % 
Canadian Housing Price Index year-over-year growth 
(2)
    6.1  %      2.8  %      10.7  %      6.3  %      2.2  %       (2.2 )% 
S&P 500 Index year-over-year growth rate
    6.1  %      4.6  %      10.3  %      8.6  %      (0.6 )%       (1.7 )% 
Canadian household debt service ratio
    13.6  %      14.4  %      13.0  %      14.2  %      14.1  %       14.7  % 
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
  $         69     $         64     $         74     $         81     $         56      $         54  
(1)
The remaining forecast period is generally four years.
(2)
National-level forward-looking forecasts are presented in the tables above, which represent the aggregation of the provincial-level forecasts used to estimate our ECL. Housing Price Index growth rates are also forecasted at the municipal level in some cases. As a result, the forecasts for individual provinces or municipalities reflected in our ECL will differ from the national forecasts presented above.
As required, the forward-looking information used to estimate ECLs reflects our expectations as at July 31, 2022, April 30, 2022 and October 31, 2021, respectively, and does not reflect changes in expectation as a result of economic forecasts that may have subsequently emerged. The base case, upside case and downside case amounts shown represent the average value of the forecasts over the respective projection horizons. Our underlying base case projection as at July 31, 2022 is characterized by weaker GDP growth for the remainder of calendar 2022 and most of 2023 compared to our previous forecast, due to continued uncertainty related to the expectation that central banks will continue to raise interest rates faster than previously anticipated in response to prolonged inflationary pressures, and the impact of supply chain disruptions related to COVID-19 measures imposed in some countries, elevated worker absenteeism levels, and geopolitical events. Significant judgment continued to be inherent in the forecasting of forward-looking information, including with regard to our base case assumptions that the increase in interest rates will result in only modest economic growth, global supply chain and inflationary challenges will ease, vaccination programs and other treatments will be able to effectively respond to the new and emerging variants, governments will respond to future waves of the virus with targeted health measures rather than broader economic closures, and that the war in Ukraine will not expand into a broader conflict. While United States (U.S.) GDP has contracted in early 2022, it is expected to grow at a modest pace on average in the second half of the year and into 2023, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate until late calendar 2023.
The downside case forecast assumes a modest recession in the near term for Canada and a more prolonged recession in the U.S. resulting from aggressive interest rate hikes introduced to combat the prolonged high levels of inflation, and a worsening of geopolitical tensions and COVID-19 lockdown measures in some countries that exacerbate supply chain issues. It also reflects a slower recovery thereafter to a lower level of sustained economic activity and an unemployment rate persistently above where it stood pre-pandemic. Meanwhile, the upside scenario continues to reflect a recovery, with absolute levels of GDP reached in calendar 2022 that are consistent with the levels that would have occurred if the pre-pandemic level of GDP had continued to increase through the pandemic at pre-pandemic rates and continuing at a higher trend level than the base case thereafter.
As indicated above, forecasting forward-looking information for multiple scenarios and determining the probability weighting of the scenarios involves a high degree of management judgment. Assumptions concerning measures used by governments to combat inflation, the economic risks emanating from the war in Ukraine, and the degree to which vaccinations and other treatments will contain existing and potential new variants such that severe restrictions will no longer need to be imposed by most governments to limit the impact of subsequent waves of infection, are material to these forecasts. To address the uncertainties inherent in the current environment, we continue to utilize management overlays with respect to the impact of certain forward-looking information and credit metrics that are not expected to be as indicative of the credit condition of the portfolios as the historical experience in our models would have otherwise suggested, including with respect to the benefit of higher levels of household savings that have accumulated during the pandemic. The use of management overlays requires the application of significant judgment that impacts the amount of ECL allowances recognized.
If we were to only use our base case scenario for the measurement of ECL for our performing loans, our ECL allowance would be $190 million lower than the recognized ECL as at July 31, 2022 (October 31, 2021: $249 million). If we were to only use our downside case scenario for the measurement of ECL for our performing loans, our ECL allowance would be $595 million higher than the recognized ECL as at July 31, 2022 (October 31, 2021: $414 million). This sensitivity is isolated to the measurement of ECL and therefore did not consider changes in the migration of exposures between stage 1 and stage 2 from the determination of the significant increase in credit risk that would have resulted in a 100% base case scenario or a 100% downside case scenario. As a result, our ECL allowance on performing loans could exceed the amount implied by the 100% downside case scenario from the migration of additional exposures from stage 1 to stage 2. Actual credit losses could differ materially from those reflected in our estimates.

The following tables provide the gross carrying amount of loans, and the contractual amounts of undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures based on the application of our 12-month point-in-time probability of defaults (PD) under IFRS 9 to our risk management PD bands within each respective stage for retail exposures, and based on our internal risk ratings for business and government exposures. Refer to the “Credit risk” section of our 2021 Annual Report for details on the CIBC risk categories.
Loans
(1)
$ millions, as at
 
  
 
  
2022
Jul. 31
 
  
  
 
  
2021
Oct. 31
 
 
 
 
Stage 1
 
  
 
Stage 2
 
  
 
Stage 3
 
(2)
 
  
 
Total
 
  
 
Stage 1
 
  
 
Stage 2
 
  
 
Stage 3 
(2)
 
  
 
Total
 
Residential mortgages
 
     
  
     
  
     
  
     
  
     
  
     
  
     
  
     
– Exceptionally low
 
$
    180,297
 
  
$
170
 
  
$
 
  
$
180,467
 
  
$
162,307      $ 94      $      $ 162,401  
– Very low
 
 
49,576
 
  
 
377
 
  
 
 
  
 
49,953
 
  
 
49,958        640               50,598  
– Low
 
 
22,409
 
  
 
5,733
 
  
 
 
  
 
28,142
 
  
 
22,912        6,547               29,459  
– Medium
 
 
475
 
  
 
4,589
 
  
 
 
  
 
5,064
 
  
 
364        4,671               5,035  
– High
 
 
 
  
 
888
 
  
 
 
  
 
888
 
  
 
       840               840  
– Default
 
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
378
 
  
 
378
 
  
 
      
       443        443  
– Not rated
 
 
2,398
 
  
 
230
 
  
 
 
207
 
  
 
2,835
 
  
 
2,160        395        195        2,750  
Gross residential mortgages 
(3)(4)
 
 
255,155
 
  
 
11,987
 
  
 
585
 
  
 
267,727
 
     237,701        13,187        638        251,526  
ECL allowance
 
 
55
 
  
 
70
 
  
 
159
 
  
 
284
 
  
 
59
 
  
 
63
 
  
 
158
 
  
 
280
 
Net residential mortgages
 
 
255,100
 
  
 
11,917
 
  
 
426
 
  
 
267,443
 
  
 
237,642
 
  
 
13,124
 
  
 
480
 
  
 
251,246
 
Personal
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
– Exceptionally low
 
 
19,023
 
  
 
1
 
  
 
 
  
 
19,024
 
  
 
18,608
 
  
 
1
 
  
 
 
  
 
18,609
 
– Very low
 
 
6,030
 
  
 
4
 
  
 
 
  
 
6,034
 
  
 
5,179
 
  
 
4
 
  
 
 
  
 
5,183
 
– Low
 
 
9,100
 
  
 
4,541
 
  
 
 
  
 
13,641
 
  
 
8,091
 
  
 
4,389
 
  
 
 
  
 
12,480
 
– Medium
 
 
910
 
  
 
2,994
 
  
 
 
  
 
3,904
 
  
 
990
 
  
 
2,773
 
  
 
 
  
 
3,763
 
– High
 
 
256
 
  
 
1,048
 
  
 
 
  
 
1,304
 
     252
 
  
 
803
 
  
 
 
  
 
1,055  
– Default
 
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
154
 
  
 
154
 
    
 
  
 
 
  
 
109
 
  
 
109  
– Not rated
 
 
604
 
  
 
40
 
  
 
49
 
  
 
693
 
     585
 
  
 
60
 
  
 
53
 
  
 
698  
Gross personal 
(4)
 
 
35,923
 
  
 
8,628
 
  
 
203
 
  
 
44,754
 
     33,705
 
  
 
8,030
 
  
 
162
 
  
 
41,897  
ECL allowance
 
 
101
 
  
 
622
 
  
 
128
 
  
 
851
 
  
 
125
 
  
 
537
 
  
 
106
 
  
 
768
 
Net personal
 
 
35,822
 
  
 
8,006
 
  
 
75
 
  
 
43,903
 
  
 
33,580
 
  
 
7,493
 
  
 
56
 
  
 
41,129
 
Credit card
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
– Exceptionally low
 
 
3,261
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
3,261
 
  
 
2,065
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
2,065
 
– Very low
 
 
998
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
998
 
  
 
715
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
715
 
– Low
 
 
6,680
 
  
 
459
 
  
 
 
  
 
7,139
 
  
 
4,653
 
  
 
347
 
  
 
 
  
 
5,000
 
– Medium
 
 
1,074
 
  
 
2,471
 
  
 
 
  
 
3,545
 
  
 
593
 
  
 
2,195
 
  
 
 
  
 
2,788
 
– High
 
 
13
 
  
 
585
 
  
 
 
  
 
598
 
  
 
 
  
 
435
 
  
 
 
  
 
435
 
– Default
 
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
– Not rated
 
 
131
 
  
 
7
 
  
 
 
  
 
138
 
  
 
123
 
  
 
8
 
  
 
 
  
 
131
 
Gross credit card
 
 
12,157
 
  
 
3,522
 
  
 
 
  
 
15,679
 
  
 
8,149
 
  
 
2,985
 
  
 
 
  
 
11,134  
ECL allowance
 
 
129
 
  
 
559
 
  
 
 
  
 
688
 
  
 
127
 
  
 
498
 
  
 
 
  
 
625  
Net credit card
 
 
12,028
 
  
 
2,963
 
  
 
 
  
 
14,991
 
  
 
8,022
 
  
 
2,487
 
  
 
 
  
 
10,509  
Business and government
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
– Investment grade
 
 
82,534
 
  
 
438
 
  
 
 
  
 
82,972
 
  
 
65,963
 
  
 
562
 
  
 
 
  
 
66,525
 
– Non-investment grade
 
 
99,067
 
  
 
5,233
 
  
 
 
  
 
104,300
 
  
 
85,764
 
  
 
4,599
 
  
 
 
  
 
90,363
 
– Watchlist
 
 
73
 
  
 
2,818
 
  
 
 
  
 
2,891
 
  
 
67
 
  
 
2,985
 
  
 
 
  
 
3,052
 
– Default
 
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
913
 
  
 
913
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
1,033
 
  
 
1,033
 
– Not rated
 
 
167
 
  
 
15
 
  
 
 
  
 
182
 
  
 
174
 
  
 
24
 
  
 
 
  
 
198
 
Gross business and government 
(3)(5)
 
 
181,841
 
  
 
8,504
 
  
 
913
 
  
 
191,258
 
     151,968
 
  
 
8,170
 
  
 
1,033
 
  
 
161,171  
ECL allowance
 
 
208
 
  
 
436
 
  
 
356
 
  
 
1,000
 
     240
 
  
 
428
 
  
 
508
 
  
 
1,176  
Net business and government
 
 
181,633
 
  
 
8,068
 
  
 
557
 
  
 
190,258
 
     151,728
 
  
 
7,742
 
  
 
525
 
  
 
159,995  
Total net amount of loans
 
$
484,583
 
  
$
 
30,954
 
  
$
   1,058
 
  
$
   516,595
 
   $
    430,972
 
  
$
    30,846
 
  
$
    1,061
 
  
$
    462,879
 
(1)
The table excludes debt securities measured at FVOCI, for which ECL allowances of $23 million (October 31, 2021: $19 million) were recognized in AOCI. In addition, the table excludes debt securities classified at amortized cost, for which ECL allowances of $13
million were recognized as at July 31, 2022 (October 31, 2021: 
$15 million), $11 million of which was stage 3 ECL allowance on originated credit-impaired amortized cost debt securities (October 31, 2021: $13
million). Other financial assets classified at amortized cost were also excluded from the table above as their ECL allowances were immaterial as at July 31, 2022 and October 31, 2021. Financial assets other than loans that are classified as amortized cost are presented on our interim consolidated balance sheet net of ECL allowances. 
(2)
Excludes foreclosed assets of $18 million (October 31, 2021: $18 million) which were included in Other assets on our interim consolidated balance sheet.
(3)
Includes $7 million (October 31, 2021: $16 million) of residential mortgages and $29,077 million (October 31, 2021: $25,651 million) of business and government loans that are measured at FVTPL.
(4)
The internal risk rating grades presented for residential mortgages and certain personal loans do not take into account loan guarantees or insurance issued by the Canadian government (federal or provincial), Canadian government agencies, or private insurers, as the determination of whether a significant increase in credit risk has occurred for these loans is based on relative changes in the loans’ lifetime PD without considering collateral or other credit enhancements.
(5)
Includes customers’ liability under acceptances of $11,681 million (October 31, 2021: $10,958 million).
Undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures
$ millions, as at
                         
2022
Jul. 31
                             2021
Oct. 31
 
    
Stage 1
    
Stage 2
    
Stage 3
    
Total
     Stage 1      Stage 2      Stage 3      Total  
Retail
                                                                      
– Exceptionally low
 
$
   146,924
 
  
$
   8
 
  
$
      –
 
  
$
   146,932
 
   $ 130,212      $ 12      $      $ 130,224  
– Very low
 
 
14,654
 
  
 
118
 
  
 
 
  
 
14,772
 
     12,868        59               12,927  
– Low
 
 
11,608
 
  
 
1,946
 
  
 
 
  
 
13,554
 
     7,937        1,811               9,748  
– Medium
 
 
842
 
  
 
1,243
 
  
 
 
  
 
2,085
 
     740        896               1,636  
– High
 
 
163
 
  
 
679
 
  
 
 
  
 
842
 
     73        495               568  
– Default
 
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
36
 
  
 
36
 
                   34        34  
– Not rated
 
 
465
 
  
 
10
 
  
 
 
  
 
475
 
     375        8               383  
Gross retail
 
 
174,656
 
  
 
4,004
 
  
 
36
 
  
 
178,696
 
     152,205        3,281        34        155,520  
ECL allowance
 
 
53
 
  
 
77
 
  
 
 
  
 
130
 
     34        29               63  
Net retail
 
 
174,603
 
  
 
3,927
 
  
 
36
 
  
 
178,566
 
     152,171        3,252        34        155,457  
Business and government
                                                                      
– Investment grade
 
 
115,777
 
  
 
549
 
  
 
 
  
 
116,326
 
     111,877        524               112,401  
– Non-investment grade
 
 
61,371
 
  
 
2,178
 
  
 
 
  
 
63,549
 
     58,652        1,714               60,366  
– Watch list
 
 
53
 
  
 
522
 
  
 
 
  
 
575
 
     19        734               753  
– Default
 
 
 
  
 
 
  
 
84
 
  
 
84
 
                   91        91  
– Not rated
 
 
489
 
  
 
22
 
  
 
 
  
 
511
 
     346        9               355  
Gross business and government
 
 
177,690
 
  
 
3,271
 
  
 
84
 
  
 
181,045
 
     170,894        2,981        91        173,966  
ECL allowance
 
 
31
 
  
 
18
 
  
 
 
  
 
49
 
     37        21               58  
Net business and government
 
 
177,659
 
  
 
3,253
 
  
 
84
 
  
 
180,996
 
     170,857        2,960        91        173,908  
Total net undrawn credit facilities and other
off-balance
sheet exposures
 
$
352,262
 
  
$
7,180
 
  
$
120
 
  
$
359,562
 
   $     323,028      $     6,212      $     125      $     329,365