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Insurance
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2019
Insurance [Abstract]  
Insurance Insurance

Cash and securities owned by U.S.-based insurance subsidiaries, having a carrying value of approximately $1.04 billion at December 31, 2019, were on deposit as required by regulatory authorities. In addition, $217 million was on deposit in support of AFG’s underwriting activities at Lloyd’s. At December 31, 2019, AFG and its subsidiaries had $414 million in undrawn letters of credit (none of which was collateralized) and similar agreements supporting the underwriting capacity of its U.K.-based Lloyd’s insurer, Neon.

Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves   Estimating the liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses (“LAE”) is inherently judgmental and is influenced by factors that are subject to significant variation. Determining the liability is a complex process incorporating input from many areas of the Company including actuarial, underwriting, pricing, claims and operations management.

The process used to determine the total reserve for liabilities involves estimating the ultimate incurred losses and LAE, adjusted for amounts already paid on the claims. The IBNR reserve is derived by first estimating the ultimate unpaid reserve liability and subtracting case reserves for loss and LAE.

In determining management’s best estimate of the ultimate liability, management (with the assistance of Company actuaries) considers items such as the effect of inflation on medical, hospitalization, material, repair and replacement costs, the nature and maturity of lines of insurance, general economic trends and the legal environment. In addition, historical trends adjusted for changes in underwriting standards, policy provisions, product mix and other factors are analyzed using actuarial reserve development techniques. Weighing all of the factors, the management team determines a single or “point” estimate that it records as its best estimate of the ultimate liability. Ranges of loss reserves are not developed by Company actuaries. This reserve analysis and review is completed each quarter and for almost every business within AFG’s property and casualty insurance sub-segments.

Each review includes in-depth analysis of several hundred subdivisions of the business, employing multiple actuarial techniques. For each subdivision, actuaries use informed, professional judgment to adjust these techniques as necessary to respond to specific conditions in the data or within the business.

Some of the standard actuarial methods employed for the quarterly reserve analysis may include (but may not be limited to):
Case Incurred Development Method
Paid Development Method
Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method
Incremental Paid LAE to Paid Loss Methods

Management believes that each method has particular strengths and weaknesses and that no single estimation method is most accurate in all situations. When applied to a particular group of claims, the relative strengths and weaknesses of each method can change over time based on the facts and circumstances. Ultimately, the estimation methods chosen are those which management believes produce the most reliable indication for the particular liabilities under review.

The period of time from the occurrence of a loss through the settlement of the liability is referred to as the “tail”. Generally, the same actuarial methods are considered for both short-tail and long-tail lines of business because most of them work properly for both. The methods are designed to incorporate the effects of the differing length of time to settle particular claims. For short-tail lines, management tends to give more weight to the Case Incurred and Paid Development methods, although the various methods tend to produce similar results. For long-tail lines, more judgment is involved, and more weight may be given to the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method. Liability claims for long-tail lines are more susceptible to litigation and can be significantly affected by changing contract interpretation and the legal environment. Therefore, the estimation of loss reserves for these classes is more complex and subject to a higher degree of variability.

The level of detail in which data is analyzed varies among the different lines of business. Data is generally analyzed by major product or by coverage within product, using countrywide data; however, in some situations, data may be reviewed by state or region. Appropriate segmentation of the data is determined based on data credibility, homogeneity of development patterns, mix of business, and other actuarial considerations.

Supplementary statistical information is also reviewed to determine which methods are most appropriate to use or if adjustments are needed to particular methods. Such information includes:
Open and closed claim counts
Average case reserves and average incurred on open claims
Closure rates and statistics related to closed and open claim percentages
Average closed claim severity
Ultimate claim severity
Reported loss ratios
Projected ultimate loss ratios
Loss payment patterns

Within each business, results of individual methods are reviewed, supplementary statistical information is analyzed, and data from underwriting, operating and claim management are considered in deriving management’s best estimate of the ultimate liability. This estimate may be the result of one method, a weighted average of several methods, or a judgmental selection as the management team determines is appropriate.

The liability for losses and LAE for a very limited number of claims with long-term scheduled payments under certain workers’ compensation policies has been discounted at 4.5% at both December 31, 2019 and 2018, which represents an approximation of long-term investment yields. Because of the limited amount of claims involved, the net impact of
discounting did not materially impact AFG’s total liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses (net reductions from discounting of $12 million and $13 million at December 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively).

The following table provides an analysis of changes in the liability for losses and loss adjustment expenses over the past three years (in millions):
 
2019
 
2018
 
2017
Balance at beginning of period
$
9,741

 
$
9,678

 
$
8,563

Less reinsurance recoverables, net of allowance
2,942

 
2,957

 
2,302

Net liability at beginning of period
6,799

 
6,721

 
6,261

Provision for losses and LAE occurring in the current year
3,414

 
3,195

 
3,019

Net increase (decrease) in the provision for claims of prior years:
 
 
 
 
 
Special A&E charges
18

 
18

 
89

Neon exited lines charge
7

 

 
(18
)
Other
(168
)
 
(210
)
 
(135
)
Total losses and LAE incurred
3,271

 
3,003

 
2,955

Payments for losses and LAE of:
 
 
 
 
 
Current year
(1,076
)
 
(963
)
 
(942
)
Prior years
(1,790
)
 
(1,639
)
 
(1,586
)
Total payments
(2,866
)
 
(2,602
)
 
(2,528
)
Reserves of businesses disposed (*)

 
(319
)
 

Foreign currency translation and other
4

 
(4
)
 
33

Net liability at end of period
7,208

 
6,799

 
6,721

Add back reinsurance recoverables, net of allowance
3,024

 
2,942

 
2,957

Gross unpaid losses and LAE included in the balance sheet
$
10,232

 
$
9,741

 
$
9,678


(*)
Reflects the reinsurance to close transactions at Neon (discussed below).

The net decrease in the provision for claims of prior years in 2019 reflects (i) lower than expected claim frequency and severity at National Interstate and lower than expected losses in the crop business (all within the Property and transportation sub-segment), (ii) lower than anticipated claim frequency and severity in the workers’ compensation businesses (within the Specialty casualty sub-segment), and (iii) lower than expected claim frequency and severity in the surety and financial institutions businesses and lower than anticipated claim severity in the foreign credit business (all within the Specialty financial sub-segment). This favorable development was partially offset by (i) the $18 million special charge to increase asbestos and environmental reserves and adverse reserve development of $7 million on Neon’s exited lines of business, (ii) higher than expected claim severity in the excess and surplus lines businesses and higher than expected claim frequency in product liability contractor claims (all within the Specialty casualty sub-segment), and (iii) net adverse reserve development related to business outside the Specialty group that AFG no longer writes.

The net decrease in the provision for claims of prior years in 2018 reflects (i) lower than expected losses in the crop business and lower than expected claim severity at National Interstate (within the Property and transportation sub-segment), (ii) lower than anticipated claim severity in the workers’ compensation businesses, lower than expected emergence in assumed 2017 property catastrophe losses at Neon and lower than expected claim severity in the executive liability business (within the Specialty casualty sub-segment) and (iii) lower than expected claim frequency and severity in the surety business, lower than expected claim severity in the fidelity business and lower than expected claim frequency in run-off businesses (within the Specialty financial sub-segment). This favorable development was partially offset by (i) the $18 million special charge to increase asbestos and environmental reserves and (ii) higher than expected claim frequency and severity in the Singapore branch and aviation operations (within the Property and transportation sub-segment).

The net decrease in the provision for claims of prior years in 2017 reflects (i) lower than expected losses in the crop and equine businesses and lower than expected claim severity in the property and inland marine and transportation businesses (all within the Property and transportation sub-segment), (ii) favorable reserve development of $18 million on Neon’s exited lines, as well as additional favorable development on ongoing lines of business within Neon, recorded in connection with the reinsurance to close agreement entered into in December 2017 for the 2015 and prior years of account, lower than anticipated claim severity in the workers’ compensation businesses and lower than expected losses in the executive liability business (all within the Specialty casualty sub-segment) and (iii) lower than anticipated claim severity in the fidelity business and lower than expected claim frequency and severity in the surety business (both within the Specialty financial sub-segment). This favorable development was partially offset by (i) the $89 million special charge
to increase asbestos and environmental reserves, (ii) higher than expected claim frequency and severity in the ocean marine business (within the Property and transportation sub-segment), (iii) higher than anticipated claim severity in the targeted markets and general liability businesses and higher than anticipated severity in New York contractor claims (all within the Specialty casualty sub-segment) and (iv) a charge to adjust to the deferred gain on the retroactive reinsurance transaction entered into in connection with the sale of businesses in 1998 (included in Other specialty sub-segment).

In December 2017, the Neon Lloyd’s syndicate entered into a reinsurance to close transaction for the 2015 and prior years of account with StarStone Underwriting Limited, a subsidiary of Enstar Group Limited, which was effective as of December 31, 2017 and settled in early 2018. In the Lloyd’s market, a reinsurance to close transaction transfers the responsibility for discharging all of the liabilities that attach to the transferred year of account plus the right to any income due to the closing year of account in return for a premium. This transaction provided Neon with finality on its legacy business. As a result of the reinsurance to close agreement, Neon was able to better estimate its ultimate liability for the 2015 and prior years of account as of December 31, 2017, resulting in favorable development of $42 million, of which $24 million related to its ongoing lines of business (included in Specialty casualty) and $18 million related to its exited lines of business.

A reconciliation of incurred and paid claims development information to the aggregate carrying amount of the liability for unpaid losses and LAE, with separate disclosure of reinsurance recoverables on unpaid claims is shown below (in millions):
 
2019
Unpaid losses and allocated LAE, net of reinsurance:
 
Specialty
 
Property and transportation
$
1,171

Specialty casualty
4,056

Specialty financial
221

Other specialty
313

Total Specialty (excluding foreign reserves)
5,761

 
 
Other reserves
 
Reserves for foreign operations:
 
Neon Lloyd’s business
357

Other subsidiaries
289

A&E reserves
383

Unallocated LAE
361

Other
57

Total other reserves
1,447

Total reserves, net of reinsurance
7,208

 
 
Add back reinsurance recoverables, net of allowance
3,024

Gross unpaid losses and LAE included in the balance sheet
$
10,232



The following claims development tables and associated disclosures related to short-duration insurance contracts are prepared by sub-segment within the property and casualty insurance business for the most recent 10 accident years. AFG determines its claim counts at the claimant or policy feature level depending on the particular facts and circumstances of the underlying claim. While the methodology is generally consistent within each sub-segment, there are minor differences between and within the sub-segments. The methods used to summarize claim counts have not changed significantly over the time periods reported in the tables below.

Property and transportation
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Dollars in Millions)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Incurred Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance
 
As of December 31, 2019
 
 
For the Years Ended (2010–2018 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited)
 
Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims
 
Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
Accident Year
 
2010
 
2011
 
2012
 
2013
 
2014
 
2015
 
2016
 
2017
 
2018
 
2019
 
 
2010
 
$
679

 
$
639

 
$
645

 
$
652

 
$
655

 
$
655

 
$
660

 
$
657

 
$
655

 
$
655

 
$
3

 
138,105

2011
 
 
 
811

 
799

 
813

 
827

 
837

 
850

 
846

 
844

 
843

 
5

 
138,309

2012
 
 
 
 
 
864

 
857

 
871

 
883

 
894

 
890

 
886

 
881

 
8

 
143,122

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
882

 
870

 
872

 
878

 
878

 
877

 
873

 
10

 
138,864

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
844

 
828

 
817

 
820

 
815

 
808

 
15

 
132,971

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
818

 
784

 
779

 
777

 
777

 
23

 
134,618

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
746

 
716

 
714

 
706

 
46

 
120,884

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
889

 
847

 
843

 
80

 
140,067

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
932

 
902

 
119

 
128,428

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,111

 
288

 
138,508

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total

 
$
8,399

 
 
 
 

 
 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance
 
 
 
 
Accident Year
 
For the Years Ended (2010–2018 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited)
 
 
 
 
 
2010
 
2011
 
2012
 
2013
 
2014
 
2015
 
2016
 
2017
 
2018
 
2019
 
% (a)
 
 
2010
 
$
316

 
$
486

 
$
535

 
$
596

 
$
626

 
$
637

 
$
642

 
$
647

 
$
649

 
$
650

 
99.2
%
 
 
2011
 
 
 
365

 
667

 
727

 
771

 
803

 
821

 
829

 
833

 
834

 
98.9
%
 
 
2012
 
 
 
 
 
572

 
708

 
772

 
816

 
842

 
856

 
882

 
869

 
98.6
%
 
 
2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
438

 
702

 
760

 
804

 
831

 
847

 
858

 
98.3
%
 
 
2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
329

 
632

 
693

 
744

 
770

 
783

 
96.9
%
 
 
2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
359

 
582

 
667

 
707

 
736

 
94.7
%
 
 
2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
294

 
521

 
577

 
618

 
87.5
%
 
 
2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
379

 
640

 
696

 
82.6
%
 
 
2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
396

 
676

 
74.9
%
 
 
2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
527

 
47.4
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total

 
$
7,247

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unpaid losses and LAE — years 2010 through 2019
 
 
1,152

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unpaid losses and LAE — 11th year and prior (excluding unallocated LAE)
 
 
19

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unpaid losses and LAE, net of reinsurance (excluding unallocated LAE)
 
 
$
1,171

 
 
 
 


 
 
Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance
(Supplementary Information and Unaudited)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Year 1
 
Year 2
 
Year 3
 
Year 4
 
Year 5
 
Year 6
 
Year 7
 
Year 8
 
Year 9
 
Year 10
 
 
 
 
Annual
 
47.1
%
 
29.8
%
 
7.7
%
 
6.0
%
 
3.6
%
 
1.8
%
 
1.5
%
 
(0.1
%)
 
0.2
%
 
0.2
%
 
 
 
 
Cumulative
 
47.1
%
 
76.9
%
 
84.6
%
 
90.6
%
 
94.2
%
 
96.0
%
 
97.5
%
 
97.4
%
 
97.6
%
 
97.8
%
 
 
 
 


(a)
Represents the cumulative percentage paid of incurred claims and allocated LAE (net of reinsurance, as estimated at December 31, 2019).

Specialty casualty
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Dollars in Millions)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Incurred Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance
 
As of December 31, 2019
 
 
For the Years Ended (2010–2018 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited)
 
Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims
 
Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
Accident Year
 
2010
 
2011
 
2012
 
2013
 
2014
 
2015
 
2016
 
2017
 
2018
 
2019
 
 
2010
 
$
871

 
$
887

 
$
888

 
$
867

 
$
880

 
$
870

 
$
868

 
$
866

 
$
855

 
$
846

 
$
28

 
56,716

2011
 
 
 
852

 
849

 
839

 
848

 
834

 
828

 
826

 
817

 
810

 
37

 
54,755

2012
 
 
 
 
 
901

 
892

 
885

 
885

 
883

 
877

 
849

 
842

 
53

 
54,682

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
968

 
949

 
945

 
940

 
945

 
926

 
916

 
77

 
54,929

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,035

 
1,008

 
1,008

 
1,006

 
982

 
967

 
98

 
56,445

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,081

 
1,043

 
1,041

 
1,042

 
1,024

 
126

 
57,427

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,131

 
1,122

 
1,116

 
1,101

 
236

 
56,000

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,211

 
1,221

 
1,204

 
372

 
56,073

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,277

 
1,307

 
548

 
57,081

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,308

 
773

 
51,198

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total

 
$
10,325

 
 
 
 

 
 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance
 
 
 
 
Accident Year
 
For the Years Ended (2010–2018 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited)
 
 
 
 
 
2010
 
2011
 
2012
 
2013
 
2014
 
2015
 
2016
 
2017
 
2018
 
2019
 
% (a)
 
 
2010
 
$
191

 
$
412

 
$
560

 
$
645

 
$
700

 
$
736

 
$
757

 
$
771

 
$
783

 
$
798

 
94.3
%
 
 
2011
 
 
 
174

 
383

 
522

 
612

 
662

 
694

 
714

 
731

 
745

 
92.0
%
 
 
2012
 
 
 
 
 
173

 
385

 
516

 
621

 
684

 
723

 
745

 
761

 
90.4
%
 
 
2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
182

 
396

 
554

 
666

 
729

 
766

 
797

 
87.0
%
 
 
2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
190

 
412

 
574

 
680

 
755

 
801

 
82.8
%
 
 
2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
178

 
411

 
577

 
702

 
792

 
77.3
%
 
 
2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
186

 
418

 
584

 
713

 
64.8
%
 
 
2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
200

 
422

 
612

 
50.8
%
 
 
2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
210

 
475

 
36.3
%
 
 
2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
212

 
16.2
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total

 
$
6,706

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unpaid losses and LAE — years 2010 through 2019
 
 
3,619

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unpaid losses and LAE — 11th year and prior (excluding unallocated LAE)
 
 
437

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unpaid losses and LAE, net of reinsurance (excluding unallocated LAE)
 
 
$
4,056

 
 
 
 


 
 
Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance
(Supplementary Information and Unaudited)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Year 1
 
Year 2
 
Year 3
 
Year 4
 
Year 5
 
Year 6
 
Year 7
 
Year 8
 
Year 9
 
Year 10
 
 
 
 
Annual
 
18.7
%
 
22.9
%
 
16.4
%
 
11.5
%
 
7.3
%
 
4.3
%
 
2.7
%
 
1.9
%
 
1.6
%
 
1.8
%
 
 
 
 
Cumulative
 
18.7
%
 
41.6
%
 
58.0
%
 
69.5
%
 
76.8
%
 
81.1
%
 
83.8
%
 
85.7
%
 
87.3
%
 
89.1
%
 
 
 
 


(a)
Represents the cumulative percentage paid of incurred claims and allocated LAE (net of reinsurance, as estimated at December 31, 2019).

Specialty financial
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Dollars in Millions)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Incurred Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance
 
As of December 31, 2019
 
 
For the Years Ended (2010–2018 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited)
 
Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims
 
Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
Accident Year
 
2010
 
2011
 
2012
 
2013
 
2014
 
2015
 
2016
 
2017
 
2018
 
2019
 
 
2010
 
$
138

 
$
145

 
$
132

 
$
132

 
$
135

 
$
133

 
$
130

 
$
127

 
$
126

 
$
126

 
$
1

 
21,925

2011
 
 
 
138

 
157

 
155

 
153

 
147

 
144

 
143

 
139

 
137

 

 
16,369

2012
 
 
 
 
 
163

 
163

 
151

 
139

 
137

 
135

 
132

 
127

 
1

 
21,076

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
140

 
145

 
137

 
131

 
127

 
126

 
122

 
4

 
28,460

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
146

 
157

 
156

 
153

 
147

 
142

 
5

 
29,436

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
156

 
160

 
158

 
153

 
145

 
10

 
37,562

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
179

 
184

 
187

 
182

 
18

 
45,054

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
212

 
215

 
212

 
27

 
48,421

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
212

 
217

 
30

 
46,198

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
194

 
77

 
35,369

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total

 
$
1,604

 
 
 
 

 
 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance
 
 
 
 
Accident Year
 
For the Years Ended (2010–2018 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited)
 
 
 
 
 
2010
 
2011
 
2012
 
2013
 
2014
 
2015
 
2016
 
2017
 
2018
 
2019
 
% (a)
 
 
2010
 
$
61

 
$
93

 
$
104

 
$
122

 
$
132

 
$
130

 
$
128

 
$
126

 
$
126

 
$
126

 
100.0
%
 
 
2011
 
 
 
58

 
111

 
115

 
123

 
130

 
131

 
131

 
132

 
132

 
96.4
%
 
 
2012
 
 
 
 
 
71

 
104

 
109

 
117

 
121

 
126

 
128

 
126

 
99.2
%
 
 
2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
70

 
100

 
107

 
113

 
117

 
117

 
118

 
96.7
%
 
 
2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
62

 
109

 
125

 
128

 
137

 
139

 
97.9
%
 
 
2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
72

 
110

 
129

 
133

 
132

 
91.0
%
 
 
2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
88

 
141

 
158

 
161

 
88.5
%
 
 
2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
120

 
169

 
186

 
87.7
%
 
 
2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
112

 
163

 
75.1
%
 
 
2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
99

 
51.0
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total

 
$
1,382

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unpaid losses and LAE — years 2010 through 2019
 
 
222

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unpaid losses and LAE — 11th year and prior (excluding unallocated LAE)
 
 
(1
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unpaid losses and LAE, net of reinsurance (excluding unallocated LAE)
 
 
$
221

 
 
 
 


 
 
Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance
(Supplementary Information and Unaudited)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Year 1
 
Year 2
 
Year 3
 
Year 4
 
Year 5
 
Year 6
 
Year 7
 
Year 8
 
Year 9
 
Year 10
 
 
 
 
Annual
 
50.5
%
 
27.7
%
 
7.9
%
 
5.4
%
 
4.2
%
 
0.9
%
 
0.2
%
 
(0.8
%)
 
%
 
%
 
 
 
 
Cumulative
 
50.5
%
 
78.2
%
 
86.1
%
 
91.5
%
 
95.7
%
 
96.6
%
 
96.8
%
 
96.0
%
 
96.0
%
 
96.0
%
 
 
 
 


(a)
Represents the cumulative percentage paid of incurred claims and allocated LAE (net of reinsurance, as estimated at December 31, 2019).

Other specialty
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Dollars in Millions)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Incurred Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance
 
As of December 31, 2019
 
 
For the Years Ended (2010–2018 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited)
 
Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims
 
Cumulative Number of Reported Claims (a)
Accident Year
 
2010
 
2011
 
2012
 
2013
 
2014
 
2015
 
2016
 
2017
 
2018
 
2019
 
 
2010
 
$
36

 
$
39

 
$
40

 
$
39

 
$
40

 
$
40

 
$
40

 
$
40

 
$
40

 
$
39

 
$
1

 

2011
 
 
 
39

 
43

 
42

 
43

 
43

 
44

 
44

 
43

 
42

 
1

 

2012
 
 
 
 
 
42

 
40

 
39

 
40

 
41

 
39

 
39

 
36

 
2

 

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
46

 
47

 
46

 
47

 
50

 
53

 
58

 
3

 

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
58

 
57

 
59

 
59

 
60

 
61

 
6

 

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
59

 
60

 
63

 
66

 
76

 
3

 

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
61

 
61

 
65

 
71

 
15

 

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
63

 
65

 
70

 
23

 

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
86

 
90

 
53

 

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
108

 
87

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total

 
$
651

 
 
 
 

 
 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance
 
 
 
 
Accident Year
 
For the Years Ended (2010–2018 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited)
 
 
 
 
 
2010
 
2011
 
2012
 
2013
 
2014
 
2015
 
2016
 
2017
 
2018
 
2019
 
% (b)
 
 
2010
 
$
8

 
$
14

 
$
21

 
$
24

 
$
27

 
$
33

 
$
35

 
$
36

 
$
37

 
$
37

 
94.9
%
 
 
2011
 
 
 
12

 
20

 
25

 
28

 
34

 
36

 
37

 
38

 
39

 
92.9
%
 
 
2012
 
 
 
 
 
8

 
17

 
21

 
25

 
28

 
30

 
30

 
32

 
88.9
%
 
 
2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7

 
16

 
22

 
34

 
37

 
44

 
51

 
87.9
%
 
 
2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
13

 
21

 
30

 
36

 
43

 
50

 
82.0
%
 
 
2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10

 
26

 
31

 
50

 
62

 
81.6
%
 
 
2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
9

 
19

 
31

 
47

 
66.2
%
 
 
2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10

 
19

 
30

 
42.9
%
 
 
2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
12

 
23

 
25.6
%
 
 
2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
9

 
8.3
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total

 
$
380

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unpaid losses and LAE — years 2010 through 2019
 
 
271

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unpaid losses and LAE — 11th year and prior (excluding unallocated LAE)
 
 
42

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unpaid losses and LAE, net of reinsurance (excluding unallocated LAE)
 
 
$
313

 
 
 
 


 
 
Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance
(Supplementary Information and Unaudited)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Year 1
 
Year 2
 
Year 3
 
Year 4
 
Year 5
 
Year 6
 
Year 7
 
Year 8
 
Year 9
 
Year 10
 
 
 
 
Annual
 
16.6
%
 
16.5
%
 
13.2
%
 
14.9
%
 
10.5
%
 
9.8
%
 
4.9
%
 
3.5
%
 
2.5
%
 
%
 
 
 
 
Cumulative
 
16.6
%
 
33.1
%
 
46.3
%
 
61.2
%
 
71.7
%
 
81.5
%
 
86.4
%
 
89.9
%
 
92.4
%
 
92.4
%
 
 
 
 


(a)
The amounts shown in Other specialty represent business assumed by AFG’s internal reinsurance program from the operations that make up AFG’s other Specialty property and casualty insurance sub-segments. Accordingly, the liability for incurred claims and allocated LAE represents additional reserves held on claims counted in the tables provided for the other sub-segments (above).
(b)
Represents the cumulative percentage paid of incurred claims and allocated LAE (net of reinsurance, as estimated at December 31, 2019).


Total Specialty Group
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Dollars in Millions)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Incurred Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance
 
As of December 31, 2019
 
 
For the Years Ended (2010–2018 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited)
 
Total IBNR Plus Expected Development on Reported Claims
 
Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
Accident Year
 
2010
 
2011
 
2012
 
2013
 
2014
 
2015
 
2016
 
2017
 
2018
 
2019
 
 
2010
 
$
1,724

 
$
1,710

 
$
1,705

 
$
1,690

 
$
1,710

 
$
1,698

 
$
1,698

 
$
1,690

 
$
1,676

 
$
1,666

 
$
33

 
216,746

2011
 
 
 
1,840

 
1,848

 
1,849

 
1,871

 
1,861

 
1,866

 
1,859

 
1,843

 
1,832

 
43

 
209,433

2012
 
 
 
 
 
1,970

 
1,952

 
1,946

 
1,947

 
1,955

 
1,941

 
1,906

 
1,886

 
64

 
218,880

2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2,036

 
2,011

 
2,000

 
1,996

 
2,000

 
1,982

 
1,969

 
94

 
222,253

2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2,083

 
2,050

 
2,040

 
2,038

 
2,004

 
1,978

 
124

 
218,852

2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2,114

 
2,047

 
2,041

 
2,038

 
2,022

 
162

 
229,607

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2,117

 
2,083

 
2,082

 
2,060

 
315

 
221,938

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2,375

 
2,348

 
2,329

 
502

 
244,561

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2,507

 
2,516

 
750

 
231,707

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2,721

 
1,225

 
225,075

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total

 
$
20,979

 
 
 
 

 
 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated LAE, Net of Reinsurance
 
 
 
 
Accident Year
 
For the Years Ended (2010–2018 is Supplementary Information and Unaudited)
 
 
 
 
 
2010
 
2011
 
2012
 
2013
 
2014
 
2015
 
2016
 
2017
 
2018
 
2019
 
% (a)
 
 
2010
 
$
576

 
$
1,005

 
$
1,220

 
$
1,387

 
$
1,485

 
$
1,536

 
$
1,562

 
$
1,580

 
$
1,595

 
$
1,611

 
96.7
%
 
 
2011
 
 
 
609

 
1,181

 
1,389

 
1,534

 
1,629

 
1,682

 
1,711

 
1,734

 
1,750

 
95.5
%
 
 
2012
 
 
 
 
 
824

 
1,214

 
1,418

 
1,579

 
1,675

 
1,735

 
1,785

 
1,788

 
94.8
%
 
 
2013
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
697

 
1,214

 
1,443

 
1,617

 
1,714

 
1,774

 
1,824

 
92.6
%
 
 
2014
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
594

 
1,174

 
1,422

 
1,588

 
1,705

 
1,773

 
89.6
%
 
 
2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
619

 
1,129

 
1,404

 
1,592

 
1,722

 
85.2
%
 
 
2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
577

 
1,099

 
1,350

 
1,539

 
74.7
%
 
 
2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
709

 
1,250

 
1,524

 
65.4
%
 
 
2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
730

 
1,337

 
53.1
%
 
 
2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
847

 
31.1
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total

 
$
15,715

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unpaid losses and LAE — years 2010 through 2019
 
 
5,264

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unpaid losses and LAE — 11th year and prior (excluding unallocated LAE)
 
 
497

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unpaid losses and LAE, net of reinsurance (excluding unallocated LAE)
 
 
$
5,761

 
 
 
 

 
 
Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance
(Supplementary Information and Unaudited)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Year 1
 
Year 2
 
Year 3
 
Year 4
 
Year 5
 
Year 6
 
Year 7
 
Year 8
 
Year 9
 
Year 10
 
 
 
 
Annual
 
32.6
%
 
25.7
%
 
12.1
%
 
8.9
%
 
5.6
%
 
3.1
%
 
2.1
%
 
0.8
%
 
0.9
%
 
1.0
%
 
 
 
 
Cumulative
 
32.6
%
 
58.3
%
 
70.4
%
 
79.3
%
 
84.9
%
 
88.0
%
 
90.1
%
 
90.9
%
 
91.8
%
 
92.8
%
 
 
 
 

(a)
Represents the cumulative percentage paid of incurred claims and allocated LAE (net of reinsurance, as estimated at December 31, 2019).

Closed Block of Long-Term Care Insurance Reserves for AFG’s closed block of long-term care insurance were $46 million at December 31, 2019 and $45 million at December 31, 2018, net of reinsurance recoverables and excluding the impact of unrealized gains on securities. AFG’s remaining outstanding long-term care policies have level premiums and are guaranteed renewable. Premium rates can potentially be increased in reaction to adverse experience; however, any rate increases would require regulatory approval.

FHLB Funding Agreements   Great American Life Insurance Company (“GALIC”), a wholly-owned annuity subsidiary, is a member of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati (“FHLB”). The FHLB makes advances and provides other banking services to member institutions. Members are required to purchase stock in the FHLB in addition to maintaining collateral deposits that back any funds advanced. GALIC’s $52 million investment in FHLB capital stock at December 31, 2019 is included in other investments at cost. Membership in the FHLB provides the annuity operations with an additional source of liquidity. These advances further the FHLB’s mission of improving access to housing by increasing liquidity in the residential mortgage-backed securities market.

In 2019, GALIC refinanced the terms on advances totaling $610 million. In the fourth quarter of 2018, GALIC refinanced the terms on a $40 million advance and the FHLB advanced GALIC $225 million. At both December 31, 2019 and December 31, 2018, GALIC had $1.10 billion in outstanding advances from the FHLB (included in annuity benefits accumulated), bearing interest at rates ranging from 0.13% to 0.21% over LIBOR (average rate of 1.95% at December 31, 2019). While these advances must be repaid between 2020 and 2021 ($310 million in 2020 and $786 million in 2021), GALIC has the option to prepay all or a portion of the advances. GALIC has invested the proceeds from the advances in fixed maturity securities with similar expected lives as the advances for the purpose of earning a spread over the interest payments due to the FHLB. The advances on these agreements are collateralized by fixed maturity investments, which have a total fair value of $1.27 billion (included in available for sale fixed maturity securities) at December 31, 2019. Interest credited on the funding agreements, which is included in annuity benefits, was $27 million in 2019, $20 million in 2018 and $14 million in 2017.

Statutory Information   AFG’s U.S.-based insurance subsidiaries are required to file financial statements with state insurance regulatory authorities prepared on an accounting basis prescribed or permitted by such authorities (statutory basis). Net earnings and capital and surplus on a statutory basis for the insurance subsidiaries were as follows (in millions):
 
Net Earnings
 
Capital and Surplus
 
2019
 
2018
 
2017
 
2019
 
2018
Property and casualty companies
$
584

 
$
546

 
$
484

 
$
3,342

 
$
2,867

Life (annuity) insurance companies
34

 
802

 
286

 
2,868

 
2,701



In the fourth quarter of 2018, GALIC, AFG’s primary annuity subsidiary, entered into a reinsurance treaty with Hannover Life Reassurance Company of America that transfers the risk of certain surrender activity in GALIC’s fixed-indexed annuity business. This treaty meets the statutory risk transfer rules and resulted in a $510 million increase in statutory surplus (through an after-tax reserve credit), which is reflected in the life insurance companies capital and surplus in the table above. Under GAAP, this transaction does not meet the GAAP insurance risk transfer criteria and did not have a material impact on AFG’s financial statements.

The National Association of Insurance Commissioners’ (“NAIC”) model law for risk-based capital (“RBC”) applies to both life and property and casualty insurance companies. RBC formulas determine the amount of capital that an insurance company needs so that it has an acceptable expectation of not becoming financially impaired. Companies below specific trigger points or ratios are subject to regulatory action. At December 31, 2019 and 2018, the capital ratios of all AFG insurance companies substantially exceeded the RBC requirements. AFG’s insurance companies did not use any prescribed or permitted statutory accounting practices that differed from the NAIC statutory accounting practices at December 31, 2019 or 2018.

Payments of dividends by AFG’s insurance companies are subject to various state laws that limit the amount of dividends that can be paid. Under applicable restrictions, the maximum amount of dividends available to AFG in 2020 from its insurance subsidiaries without seeking regulatory approval is $852 million. Additional amounts of dividends require regulatory approval.

Holding Company Dividends   AFG declared and paid common stock dividends to shareholders totaling $446 million, $397 million and $421 million in 2019, 2018 and 2017, respectively. Currently, there are no regulatory restrictions on AFG’s retained earnings or net earnings that materially impact its ability to pay dividends. Based on shareholders’ equity at December 31, 2019, AFG could pay dividends in excess of $2.5 billion without violating its most restrictive debt covenant. However, the payment of future dividends will be at the discretion of AFG’s Board of Directors and will be dependent on many factors including AFG’s financial condition and results of operations, the capital requirements of its insurance subsidiaries, and rating agency commitments.

Reinsurance   In the normal course of business, AFG’s insurance subsidiaries cede reinsurance to other companies to diversify risk and limit maximum loss arising from large claims. However, AFG remains liable to its insureds regardless of whether a reinsurer is able to meet its obligations. The following table shows (in millions) (i) amounts deducted from property and casualty written and earned premiums in connection with reinsurance ceded, (ii) written and earned premiums included in income for reinsurance assumed and (iii) reinsurance recoveries, which represent ceded losses and loss adjustment expenses.
 
2019
 
2018
 
2017
Direct premiums written
$
7,044

 
$
6,626

 
$
6,310

Reinsurance assumed
255

 
214

 
192

Reinsurance ceded
(1,957
)
 
(1,817
)
 
(1,751
)
Net written premiums
$
5,342

 
$
5,023

 
$
4,751

 
 
 
 
 
 
Direct premiums earned
$
6,848

 
$
6,472

 
$
6,112

Reinsurance assumed
226

 
204

 
157

Reinsurance ceded
(1,889
)
 
(1,811
)
 
(1,690
)
Net earned premiums
$
5,185

 
$
4,865

 
$
4,579

 
 
 
 
 
 
Reinsurance recoveries
$
1,404

 
$
1,249

 
$
1,379



In June 2017, AFG’s property and casualty insurance subsidiaries entered into a reinsurance agreement to obtain supplemental catastrophe protection through a catastrophe bond structure with Riverfront Re Ltd. (“Riverfront”). The reinsurance agreement provides supplemental reinsurance coverage up to 95% of $200 million (fully collateralized) for catastrophe losses in excess of $134 million of traditional catastrophe reinsurance (per occurrence and annual aggregate) occurring until December 31, 2020. In connection with the reinsurance agreement, Riverfront issued notes to unrelated investors for the full amount of coverage provided under the reinsurance agreement. Through December 31, 2019, AFG’s incurred catastrophe losses have not reached the level of attachment for the catastrophe bond structure. Riverfront is a variable interest entity in which AFG does not have a variable interest because the variability in Riverfront’s results will be absorbed entirely by the investors in Riverfront. Accordingly, Riverfront is not consolidated in AFG’s financial statements and the reinsurance agreement is accounted for as ceded reinsurance. AFG’s cost for this coverage is approximately $11 million per year.

AFG has reinsured approximately $6.23 billion of its $9.53 billion in face amount of life insurance at December 31, 2019 compared to $7.69 billion of its $10.82 billion in face amount of life insurance at December 31, 2018. Life written premiums ceded were $20 million, $22 million and $28 million for 2019, 2018 and 2017, respectively. Reinsurance recoveries on ceded life policies were $32 million, $38 million and $35 million for 2019, 2018 and 2017, respectively.

Fixed Annuities   For certain products, the liability for “annuity benefits accumulated” includes reserves for excess benefits expected to be paid on future deaths and annuitizations guaranteed withdrawal benefits and accrued persistency and premium bonuses. The liabilities included in AFG’s Balance Sheet for these benefits, excluding the impact of unrealized gains on securities, were as follows at December 31 (in millions):
 
2019
 
2018
Expected death and annuitization
$
232

 
$
229

Guaranteed withdrawal benefits
625

 
472

Accrued persistency and premium bonuses
1

 
1



Variable Annuities   At December 31, 2019, the aggregate guaranteed minimum death benefit value (assuming every variable annuity policyholder died on that date) on AFG’s variable annuity policies exceeded the fair value of the underlying variable annuities by $13 million, compared to $35 million at December 31, 2018. Death benefits paid in excess of the variable annuity account balances were less than $1 million in each of the last three years ended December 31, 2019, 2018 and 2017.