EX-99.(C)(6) 7 a2117524zex-99_c6.htm EX-99.(C)(6)

EXHIBIT (c)(6)

 

Discussion Materials regarding Horizon Organic (“Project Holy Cow”), dated
June 27, 2003, provided to Parent by Goldman, Sachs & Co.

 



 

 

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Project Holy Cow

Valuation: Summary Accretion/Dilution Analysis

 

Premium

 

23

%

26

%

28

%

31

%

34

%

37

%

Share Price (for remaining 86.9%)

 

$

22.50

 

$

23.00

 

$

23.50

 

$

24.00

 

$

24.50

 

$

25.00

 

Equity Value

 

$

246.6

 

$

252.4

 

$

258.2

 

$

264.0

 

$

269.8

 

$

275.6

 

Enterprise Value

 

300.0

 

305.9

 

311.6

 

317.5

 

323.2

 

329.1

 

Enterprise Value Multiple of LTM Normalized EBITDA

 

25.6

26.1

x

26.6

27.1

27.6

28.1

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

100% Cash

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2003E David Standalone EPS

 

$

2.07

 

$

2.07

 

$

2.07

 

$

2.07

 

$

2.07

 

$

2.07

 

2003E Pro Forma EPS

 

2.06

 

2.06

 

2.06

 

2.06

 

2.06

 

2.06

 

2003E Accretion/(Dilution)

 

(0.4

)%

(0.4

)%

(0.4

)%

(0.5

)%

(0.5

)%

(0.5

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004E David EPS

 

$

2.28

 

$

2.28

 

$

2.28

 

$

2.28

 

$

2.28

 

$

2.28

 

2004E Pro Forma EPS

 

2.29

 

2.29

 

2.29

 

2.29

 

2.29

 

2.29

 

2004E Accretion/(Dilution)

 

0.5

%

0.4

%

0.4

%

0.4

%

0.4

%

0.3

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

100% Cash, With Synergies

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004E David EPS

 

$

2.28

 

$

2.28

 

$

2.28

 

$

2.28

 

$

2.28

 

$

2.28

 

2004E Pro Forma EPS

 

2.32

 

2.32

 

2.32

 

2.32

 

2.32

 

2.32

 

2004E Accretion/(Dilution)

 

1.8

%

1.8

%

1.8

%

1.7

%

1.7

%

1.7

%

 


Note: 2003 Accretion / Dilution assumes Harry was acquired at the beginning of 2003. If the transaction is assumed to be from Q4 onward, accretion dilution would be 0.0% without synergies, and 0.0% with synergies.

 

Assumes stock prices as of 24-Jun-2003 , David projections for Harry and David, David currently owns 1.3 million shares, or 13% of Harry’s basic shares outstanding, tax rate of 39.0% for both Harry and David, David cost of debt of 3.50% , no excess purchase price is allocated to intangibles.

 

Assumes $9.3 million in transaction costs, $4.0 million in severance costs (in the synergy case) and $2.0 million of severance costs (in the non synergy case), $2.0 million in Queensboro capital project expenses, $(1.0) million in proceeds from liquidation value of California real estate.

 

1



 

Project Holy Cow

Valuation: Discounted Cash Flow Analysis, No Synergies

 

Financial Sensitivities

 

Equity Value ($) (a)

 

 

 

Terminal Multiple of 2007E EBITDA

 

Discount Rate

 

8.0 x

 

9.0 x

 

10.0 x

 

11.0 x

 

10.0%

 

144.6

 

162.7

 

180.9

 

199.0

 

9.5%

 

148.5

 

167.0

 

185.6

 

204.2

 

9.0%

 

152.5

 

171.5

 

190.5

 

209.5

 

8.5%

 

156.6

 

176.1

 

195.5

 

214.9

 

8.0%

 

160.9

 

180.7

 

200.6

 

220.5

 

 

Equity Value Per Share ($) (a)(b)

 

 

 

Terminal Multiple of 2007E EBITDA

 

Discount Rate

 

8.0 x

 

9.0 x

 

10.0 x

 

11.0 x

 

10.0%

 

12.14

 

13.66

 

15.19

 

16.71

 

9.5%

 

12.47

 

14.03

 

15.58

 

17.14

 

9.0%

 

12.80

 

14.40

 

15.99

 

17.59

 

8.5%

 

13.15

 

14.78

 

16.41

 

18.05

 

8.0%

 

13.51

 

15.18

 

16.85

 

18.52

 

 

Business Sensitivities

 

Equity Value ($) (a)(c)

 

 

 

 

 

Change in Sales Growth

 

 

 

 

 

(4.0) %

 

(2.0) %

 

0.0 %

 

2.0 %

 

4.0 %

 

 

 

 

 

Implied 4 Year CAGR

 

Change in EBIT
Margin

 

Implied 5 Yr
Blended Margin

 

15.1 %

 

17.1 %

 

19.1 %

 

21.1 %

 

23.1 %

 

(2.0)%

 

2.2%

 

94.2

 

103.5

 

113.5

 

124.2

 

135.7

 

(1.0)%

 

3.2%

 

127.1

 

139.1

 

152.0

 

165.8

 

180.4

 

0.0%

 

4.2%

 

160.0

 

174.8

 

190.5

 

207.3

 

225.2

 

1.0%

 

5.2%

 

193.0

 

210.4

 

228.9

 

248.8

 

269.9

 

2.0%

 

6.2%

 

225.9

 

246.0

 

267.4

 

290.3

 

314.7

 

 

Equity Value Per Share ($) (a)(b)(c)

 

 

 

 

 

Change in Sales Growth

 

 

 

 

 

(4.0) %

 

(2.0) %

 

0.0 %

 

2.0 %

 

4.0 %

 

 

 

 

 

Implied 4 Year CAGR

 

Change in EBIT
Margin

 

Implied 5 Yr
Blended Margin

 

15.1 %

 

17.1 %

 

19.1 %

 

21.1 %

 

23.1 %

 

(2.0)%

 

2.2%

 

7.91

 

8.69

 

9.53

 

10.43

 

11.39

 

(1.0)%

 

3.2%

 

10.67

 

11.68

 

12.76

 

13.92

 

15.15

 

0.0%

 

4.2%

 

13.44

 

14.67

 

15.99

 

17.40

 

18.91

 

1.0%

 

5.2%

 

16.20

 

17.66

 

19.22

 

20.89

 

22.66

 

2.0%

 

6.2%

 

18.97

 

20.65

 

22.45

 

24.37

 

26.42

 

 


Note: Projections per David Management as of 24 June 2003.  Free cash flow discounted, assuming mid-year convention, to end of December 2002. Terminal value calculated as of fiscal year 2007.

 

(a) Assumes outstanding debt of $39.2 million, $9.3 million of fees and tax benefit resulting from cash-out of non-qualified stock options.  10.3 million basic shares outstanding as of 31 March 2003, $0.0 million in Queensboro capital project expenses, $2.0 million in severance costs and $(1.0) in proceeds from liquidation of California real estate.

 

(b) 10.3 million basic shares outstanding as of 31 March 2003 and fully diluted shares of 11.9m.

 

(c) Assumes a 9.0% discount rate and a 10.0x EBITDA terminal multiple. Assumes a 4.0x EBITDA terminal multiple on Idaho Farm.

 

2



 

Project Holy Cow

Valuation: Discounted Cash Flow Analysis, Including Synergies

 

Financial Sensitivities

 

Equity Value ($) (a)

 

 

 

Terminal Multiple of 2007E EBITDA

 

Discount Rate

 

8.0 x

 

9.0 x

 

10.0 x

 

11.0 x

 

10.0%

 

216.7

 

242.5

 

268.2

 

294.0

 

9.5%

 

222.3

 

248.6

 

275.0

 

301.3

 

9.0%

 

228.0

 

254.9

 

281.9

 

308.8

 

8.5%

 

233.8

 

261.4

 

289.0

 

316.5

 

8.0%

 

239.8

 

268.0

 

296.3

 

324.5

 

 

Equity Value Per Share ($) (a)(b)

 

 

 

Terminal Multiple of 2007E EBITDA

 

Discount Rate

 

8.0 x

 

9.0 x

 

10.0 x

 

11.0 x

 

10.0%

 

18.20

 

20.36

 

22.52

 

24.69

 

9.5%

 

18.66

 

20.88

 

23.09

 

25.30

 

9.0%

 

19.14

 

21.40

 

23.67

 

25.93

 

8.5%

 

19.63

 

21.95

 

24.26

 

26.58

 

8.0%

 

20.14

 

22.51

 

24.88

 

27.25

 

 

Business Sensitivities

 

Equity Value ($) (a)(c)

 

 

 

 

 

Change in Sales Growth

 

 

 

 

 

(4.0) %

 

(2.0) %

 

0.0 %

 

2.0 %

 

4.0 %

 

 

 

 

 

Implied 4 Year CAGR

 

Change in EBIT
Margin

 

Implied 5 Yr
Blended Margin

 

16.1 %

 

18.1 %

 

20.1 %

 

22.1 %

 

24.1 %

%

(2.0)%

 

4.2%

 

168.9

 

184.4

 

201.0

 

218.7

 

237.6

 

(1.0)%

 

5.2%

 

203.5

 

221.9

 

241.4

 

262.3

 

284.6

 

0.0%

 

6.2%

 

238.2

 

259.3

 

281.9

 

305.9

 

331.6

 

1.0%

 

7.2%

 

272.8

 

296.8

 

322.3

 

349.5

 

378.5

 

2.0%

 

8.2%

 

307.5

 

334.2

 

362.7

 

393.1

 

425.5

 

 

Equity Value Per Share ($) (a)(b)(c)

 

 

 

 

 

Change in Sales Growth

 

 

 

 

 

(4.0)%

 

(2.0)%

 

0.0 %

 

2.0 %

 

4.0 %

 

 

 

 

 

Implied 4 Year CAGR

 

Change in EBIT
Margin

 

Implied 5 Yr
Blended Margin

 

16.1 %

 

18.1 %

 

20.1 %

 

22.1 %

 

24.1 %

%

(2.0)%

 

4.2%

 

14.18

 

15.48

 

16.88

 

18.37

 

19.95

 

(1.0)%

 

5.2%

 

17.09

 

18.63

 

20.27

 

22.03

 

23.90

 

0.0%

 

6.2%

 

20.00

 

21.77

 

23.67

 

25.69

 

27.84

 

1.0%

 

7.2%

 

22.91

 

24.92

 

27.06

 

29.35

 

31.78

 

2.0%

 

8.2%

 

25.82

 

28.06

 

30.46

 

33.01

 

35.73

 

 


Note: Projections per David Management as of 24 June 2003.  Free cash flow discounted, assuming mid-year convention, to end of December 2002. Terminal value calculated as of fiscal year 2007.

 

(a) Assumes outstanding debt of $39.2 million, $9.3 million of fees and tax benefit resulting from cash-out of non-qualified stock options.  10.3 million basic shares outstanding as of 31 March 2003, $2.0 million in Queensboro capital project expenses, $4.0 million in severance costs and $(1.0) in proceeds from liquidation of California real estate.

 

(b) 10.3 million basic shares outstanding as of 31 March 2003 and fully diluted shares of 11.9m.

 

(c) Assumes a 9.0% discount rate and a 10.0x EBITDA terminal multiple. Assumes a 4.0x EBITDA terminal multiple on Idaho Farm.

 

3