EX-99.(C) 3 a2152456zex-99_c.htm EXHIBIT 99.(C)

Exhibit 99.(c)

 

 

Link to searchable text of slide shown above

 


 

 

Link to searchable text of slide shown above

 


 

 

Link to searchable text of slide shown above

 


 

 

Link to searchable text of slide shown above

 


 

 

Link to searchable text of slide shown above

 


 

 

Link to searchable text of slide shown above

 


 

 

Link to searchable text of slide shown above

 


 

 

Link to searchable text of slide shown above

 


 

 

Link to searchable text of slide shown above

 


 

 

Link to searchable text of slide shown above

 


 

 

Link to searchable text of slide shown above

 


 

 

Link to searchable text of slide shown above

 


 

 

Link to searchable text of slide shown above

 


 

 

Link to searchable text of slide shown above

 


 

 

Link to searchable text of slide shown above

 


 

 

Link to searchable text of slide shown above

 


 

Searchable text section of graphics shown above

 



 

Strictly Confidential

Preliminary Draft for Internal Discussion

 

Project Shenzhou

 

Discussion Materials

December 21, 2004

 

[LOGO OF CICC]

 

[LOGO OF MORGAN STANLEY]

 



Strictly Confidential

Preliminary Draft for Internal Discussion

 

Project Shenzhou

 

Table of Contents

 

Section 1

Executive Summary

 

 

 

 

Section 2

Market Trading Analysis

 

 

 

 

Section 3

Precedent Transaction Analysis

 

 



Strictly Confidential

Preliminary Draft for Internal Discussion

 

Project Shenzhou

 

Disclaimer

 

                  This presentation is not a fairness opinion and the analyses set out herein are not and do not purport to be an appraisal or valuation of any of the securities, assets or businesses of Emperor or Bauhinia. This presentation is provided to Emperor by CICC and Morgan Stanley only for the purpose of Project Shenzhou. It does not form the basis of the offering price that Emperor will propose to Bauhinia’s public shareholders.

 

                  The purpose of this presentation is to present to Emperor different ways of considering this transaction. This presentation does not comprise advice of CICC and Morgan Stanley.

 

                  This presentation is based upon publicly available information and information made available to CICC and Morgan Stanley by or through Emperor.

 

                  In preparing this presentation, CICC and Morgan Stanley have relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources as well as all information which was provided to CICC and Morgan Stanley by or on behalf of Emperor or which was otherwise reviewed by CICC and Morgan Stanley, including any statements with respect to projections or prospects of Emperor and Bauhinia or the assumption on which such statements were based.

 

                  This presentation was not prepared with a view toward public disclosure. In addition, this presentation was not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, or with a view to compliance with guidelines of any entity regarding financial analyses or projections, which would require a more complete presentation of data than as shown herein.

 

                  The financial projections, if any, contained in this presentation are forward-looking statements that are based on publicly available information provided by the management of Emperor and/or Bauhinia and have not been independently verified or investigated. This presentation:

 

                  necessarily makes numerous assumptions, many of which are beyond anyone’s control and may prove not to have been, be, or may no longer be, accurate;

 

                  does not reflect prospects for Emperor’s or Bauhinia’s businesses, changes in general business and economic conditions, or any other transactions or events that have occurred or that may occur and that were not anticipated at the time this presentation was prepared;

 

                  is not necessarily indicative of current values or future performance, which may be significantly more favorable or less favorable than as set forth herein; and

 

                  should not be regarded as a representation that any of the events described in the forward-looking statements, the assumptions, the prospects, conditions, transactions, other events, values and performance will be achieved.

 

                  Neither Emperor’s auditors nor Bauhinia’s independent auditors, nor any other independent accountants have compiled, examined or performed any procedures with respect to the financial projections contained herein, if any, nor have they expressed any opinion or given any form of assurance on such information or its achievability.  This presentation is not a guarantee of performance. It involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions. The future financial results and stockholder value of Emperor and Bauhinia may materially differ from those expressed in this presentation due to factors that are beyond anyone’s ability to control or predict. We cannot assure you that Emperor and/or Bauhinia future financial results will not materially vary from this presentation and we do not intend to update or revise this presentation.

 

                  This presentation is proprietary to CICC and Morgan Stanley and may not be disclosed or referred to by Emperor to any third party or distributed, reproduced or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of CICC and Morgan Stanley.

 

1



Strictly Confidential

Preliminary Draft for Internal Discussion

 

Project Shenzhou

 

Section 1

 

Executive Summary

 



Strictly Confidential

Preliminary Draft for Internal Discussion

 

Project Shenzhou

 

Executive Summary

 

                  This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to Emperor (or anyone else) as to an appropriate offer price for Bauhinia shares

 

                  CICC and Morgan Stanley have performed financial analyses regarding an appropriate price at which Emperor’s offer will likely be attractive to Bauhinia’s shareholders, and have considered among other things:

                  Historical market trading

                  Research analysts’ views on Asian petrochemical industry and Bauhinia’s products

                  Comparable company analyses

                  Precedent transaction analyses

 

                  Market sentiment on petrochemical cycle

                  Based on the recent trading performance of a select group of companies in Asia we believe to be comparable, optimism on the petrochemical industry outlook (improving results in 2005 and 2006 and declining profitability thereafter) seems to have already been priced into the market

                  Equity research analysts remain positive on the prospects of Bauhinia in the near term, but with limited profit upside when the industry reaches it cyclical peak in 2005-06 and domestic raw material costs normalizing with the rest of the region

                  A recent resurgence in recent M&A transactions in the Asian petrochemical industry, after a period of little to no deal activity, suggests that buyer and seller expectations are aligning

 

                  We believe a range of HK$3.70 – 3.85 per share is currently an appropriate range for Emperor to consider an offer to Bauhinia’s shareholders which is based on, among other things:

                  Recent Bauhinia share price performance

                  Recent trading levels in the Asian petrochemical industry

                  Current industry and equity research analyst views on the industry and Bauhinia

                  Precedent transactions in Asian petrochemical sector

 

2



Strictly Confidential

Preliminary Draft for Internal Discussion

 

Project Shenzhou

 

Implied Valuation Summary

 

Sensitivity on Implied Premium Paid or Implied Multiple

 

 

 

Valuation Matrix

 

Implied Share

 

Offer Price

 

Reference Date on December 17, 2004

 

Low

 

Mid

 

High

 

Price (HK$)

 

$3.70

 

$3.75

 

$3.80

 

$3.85

 

$3.90

 

$3.95

 

$4.00

 

Trading Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Implied Premium

 

December 20, 2004

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

3.25

 

13.8

%

15.4

%

16.9

%

18.5

%

20.0

%

21.5

%

23.1

%

Trading 52 Weeks Closing High (1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

3.70

 

0.0

%

1.4

%

2.7

%

4.1

%

5.4

%

6.8

%

8.1

%

Trading 52 Weeks Closing Low (2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

1.58

 

134.2

%

137.3

%

140.5

%

143.7

%

146.8

%

150.0

%

153.2

%

6 Month Closing High (3)

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

3.25

 

13.8

%

15.4

%

16.9

%

18.5

%

20.0

%

21.5

%

23.1

%

1 Week Average Price

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

3.23

 

14.6

%

16.1

%

17.6

%

19.2

%

20.7

%

22.3

%

23.8

%

1 Month Average Price

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

3.07

 

20.6

%

22.2

%

23.9

%

25.5

%

27.1

%

28.7

%

30.4

%

3 Month Average Price

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

3.05

 

21.4

%

23.0

%

24.6

%

26.3

%

27.9

%

29.6

%

31.2

%

6 Month Average Price

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

2.84

 

30.1

%

31.9

%

33.6

%

35.4

%

37.1

%

38.9

%

40.6

%

Research Price Target (4)

 

$

2.10

 

$

3.25

 

$

4.20

 

$

3.25

 

13.8

%

15.4

%

16.9

%

18.5

%

20.0

%

21.5

%

23.1

%

Comparable Companies (5)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Implied Multiples

 

 

 

 

 

2005 P/E (6)

 

6.25

x

6.50

x

6.75

x

$

3.32

 

7.24

x

7.33

x

7.43

x

7.53

x

7.63

x

7.73

x

7.82

x

2005 EV/EBITDA (6)

 

4.00

x

4.25

x

4.50

x

$

3.19

 

4.86

x

4.92

x

4.98

x

5.04

x

5.10

x

5.16

x

5.21

x

Precedent Transactions (7)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Implied Multiples / Premium

 

 

 

 

 

Chemical Industry LTM EV/EBITDA (8)

 

4.50

x

4.75

x

5.00

x

$

3.77

 

4.67

x

4.72

x

4.78

x

4.84

x

4.89

x

4.95

x

5.01

x

HK Minority Squeeze-out 90 Trading Days to Price (9)

 

50

%

55

%

60

%

$

4.55

 

-18.7

%

-17.6

%

-16.5

%

-15.4

%

-14.3

%

-13.2

%

-12.1

%

HK Minority Squeeze-out Offer Price to NAV (10)

 

-50

%

-55

%

-60

%

$

0.82

 

351.1

%

357.2

%

363.3

%

369.4

%

375.5

%

381.6

%

387.7

%

 

Sources  Bloomberg, Factset, I/B/ES, Equity Research Reports, Company data

 


Notes

(1).                               1/5/2004

(2).                               5/17/2004

(3).                               10/17/2004, 10/12/2004, 12/16/2004, 12/17/2004, 12/20/2004

(4).                               Selected equity research reports from August 24, 2004 to December 8, 2004, see page 8 for more details

(5).                               See page 7 for more details

(6).                               Estimated IBES 2005 and 2006 EPS and EBITDA of Bauhinia, Emperor and other comparable companies from Bloomberg 16 December 2004. Bauhinia 2005E EPS RMB 0.542, EBITDA RMB 3,020 MM; 2006E EPS RMB 0.386, EBITDA RMB 1,442 MM. Net debt of Bauhinia is RMB 1,442 MM as of 6/30/2004

(7).                               See page 11 for more details

(8).                               Last-12-month publicly announced EBITDA of Bauhinia equals the sum of EBITDA for 6 months ended 31 December 2003 and 6 months ended 30 June 2004

(9).                               See page 10 for more details, 90-trading-day average price is HK$2.94

(10).                         Bauhinia’s net asset value per share as of 6/30/2004 is RMB 1.93

 

3



Strictly Confidential

Preliminary Draft for Internal Discussion

 

Project Shenzhou

 

Analysis Overview

 

Trading Prices

HK$ / Share

 

 

 

 

 

2005E Multiples(4)

 

 

 

Related Indicator

 

P/E

 

P/E

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market Trading Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

– 1W Average Price (+10%-30%) (1)

 

$3.55 / 4.20

 

6.95x / 8.21x

 

4.69x / 5.45x

 

– 1 M Average Price (+10%-30%) (1)

 

$3.37 / 3.99

 

6.60x / 8.80x

 

4.47x / 5.20x

 

– 3M Average Price (+10%-30%) (1)

 

$3.35 / 3.96

 

6.56x / 7.75x

 

4.45x / 5.17x

 

– 6M Average Price (+10%-30%) (1)

 

$3.13 / 3.70

 

6.12x / 7.23x

 

4.18x / 4.86x

 

– 6M /12M Closing Price High

 

$3.25 / 3.70

 

6.36x / 7.23x

 

4.33x / 4.86x

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Research Analyst Target Price(2)

 

$2.10 / 4.20

 

4.11x / 8.21x

 

2.96x / 5.45x

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Comparable Companies (3)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

– 2005 P/E (4)

 

6.25x / 6.75x

 

6.25x / 6.75x

 

4.26x / 4.56x

 

– 2005 EV/EBITDA (4)

 

4.00x / 4.50x

 

5.82x / 6.64x

 

4.00x / 4.50x

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Precedent Transactions(5)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chemical Industry 2004/ LTM EV/EBITDA(6)

 

4.50x / 5.00x

 

6.95x / 7.81x

 

4.69x / 5.21x

 

 

[CHART]

 

Sources  Bloomberg, Factset, I/B/ES, Research Reports, Company data

 


Notes

(1).                               Current price at HK$3.25 (12/20/2004), 1-month average price is HK$3.07, 3-month average price is HK$3.05, 6-month average price is HK$2.84

(2).                               Selected equity research reports from August 24, 2004 to December 8, 2004, see page 8 for more details

(3).                               According to the estimate of I/B/E/S to the comparable companies including Shanghai Petrochemical, Yizheng Chemical, Jilin Chemical, LG Petrochemical, National Petrochem, Honam Petrochem, IBES data from Bloomberg 12/16/2004, see page 7 for more details

(4).                               2005 and 2006 trading multiples are based on I/B/E/S’s estimate on Bauhinia from Bloomberg 12/16/2004. 2005E EPS RMB 0.542, EBITDA RMB 3,020 MM; 2006E EPS RMB 0.386, EBITDA RMB 1,442 MM. Net debt of Bauhinia is RMB 1,442 MM as of 6/30/2004

(5).                               See page 11 for more details

(6).                               Last-12-month publicly announced EBITDA RMB 3,145 MM of Bauhinia equals the sum of EBITDA for 6 months ended 31 December 2003 and 6 months ended 30 June 2004

 

4



Strictly Confidential

Preliminary Draft for Internal Discussion

 

Project Shenzhou

 

Section 2

 

Market Trading Analysis

 



Strictly Confidential

Preliminary Draft for Internal Discussion

 

Project Shenzhou

 

Market Trading Analysis

 

                  We have analyzed the historical trading prices and volume of Bauhinia over the last two years

 

                  Offer perspectives on the average trading price of Bauhinia and hence the approximate entry price of most existing shareholders

 

                  Provide indications of premium that may be required to clear the 30% public float

 

                  We also compiled information from street analyst research

 

                  Provide market valuation view on Bauhinia, expected target prices and investment recommendation (buy, sell, or hold)

 

                  Current trading levels as well as the level of BUY recommendations on petrochemical stocks suggest that the market is expecting the industry cycle to peak in 2005/2006. Market correction in share prices and research recommendations occurs 6–9 months prior to the cycle peak

 

                  We have compared the 2004E and 2005E EBITDA multiples of Bauhinia to those of its peers.  Bauhinia trading multiples based on average estimates compiled by IBES are lower than its peers.

 

                  We believe this reflects certain discounts investors applied to Bauhinia’s accelerated growth; and

 

                  Limited further earnings growth potential after 2005 and the possibility of losing its relative cost advantages as a result in part of a controlled raw material price environment. Trading multiples of Bauhinia converge to those of its comparables on 2006 basis as its profit is expected to fall significantly (average EPS compiled by IBES decreases significantly from RMB$0.542 per share in 2005 to RMB$0.386 per share in 2006 (1))


Notes

(1).  Estimated IBES Data from Bloomberg 16 December 2004

 

5



Strictly Confidential

Preliminary Draft for Internal Discussion

 

Project Shenzhou

 

Stock Price Analysis of Bauhinia

 

                  Some insight into the possible entry cost of the current shareholders analysing the volume and the prices of Bauhinia

 

Historical Stock Price Analysis

Share Price (HK$)(1)

 

[CHART]

 

Trading Volume (MM Shares)

 

1,369

 

2,647

 

5,648

 

11,560

 

% of TSO (2)

 

41

%

78

%

167

%

343

%

% of H Share(%)

 

135

%

262

%

558

%

1,142

%

 

Source  FactSet as of 12/17/2004

 

Statistic (HK$)

12/17/2004

 

Current

 

3.250

 

1M average

 

3.068

 

2M average

 

3.009

 

3M average

 

3.049

 

52 Wk High(3)

 

3.700

 

52 Wk Average

 

2.811

 

52 Wk Low(4)

 

1.580

 

 

Source  FactSet

 


Notes

(1).  Based on closing prices

(2).  3,374MM of outstanding share and 1,012MM H shares

(3).  1/5/2004

(4).  5/17/2004

 

6



Strictly Confidential

Preliminary Draft for Internal Discussion

 

Project Shenzhou

 

Trading Analysis

 

Trading Data – From I/B/E/S Estimates

 

Comparable Companies Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LTM Price

 

Equity Value

 

Agg. Value

 

P/E

 

AV/Sales

 

AV/EBITDA

 

Company

 

Domicile

 

Price (Lcl)

 

Low

 

High

 

(US $MM)

 

(US $MM)

 

2004E

 

2005E

 

2006E

 

2004E

 

2005E

 

2006E

 

2004E

 

2005E

 

2006E

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shanghai
Petrochemical (1)

 

China

 

2.80

 

1.86

 

4.08

 

2,591

 

3,407

 

6.8

x

6.6

x

8.7

x

0.8

x

0.7

x

0.7

x

4.6

x

4.6

x

5.7

x

Yizheng Chemical (1)

 

China

 

1.65

 

1.06

 

2.35

 

848

 

888

 

17.4

x

16.1

x

11.9

x

0.6

x

0.6

x

0.5

x

5.1

x

4.7

x

4.5

x

Jilin Chemical (1)

 

China

 

2.63

 

0.88

 

2.83

 

1,202

 

1,781

 

3.4

x

3.7

x

5.1

x

0.6

x

0.6

x

NA

 

4.4

x

4.0

x

NA

 

LG Petrochemical

 

Korea

 

26,250.00

 

17,650.00

 

30,800.00

 

1,119

 

1,105

 

6.0

x

5.9

x

6.4

x

0.9

x

0.8

x

0.7

x

4.8

x

3.3

x

3.6

x

National Petrochemical

 

Thailand

 

105.00

 

77.50

 

150.00

 

831

 

854

 

8.8

x

8.5

x

8.4

x

1.7

x

1.6

x

1.5

x

5.5

x

5.2

x

5.1

x

Honam Petrochemical

 

Korea

 

50,000.00

 

29,100.00

 

65,900.00

 

1,502

 

1,636

 

3.6

x

3.7

x

4.1

x

1.1

x

1.0

x

1.0

x

4.0

x

3.8

x

4.2

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mean

 

7.7

x

7.4

x

7.4

x

0.9

x

0.9

x

0.9

x

4.7

x

4.3

x

4.6

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median

 

6.4

x

6.2

x

7.4

x

0.8

x

0.8

x

0.7

x

4.7

x

4.3

x

4.5

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bauhinia (1)

 

China

 

3.25

 

1.52

 

3.80

 

1,410

 

1,584

 

5.1

x

6.4

x

9.0

x

0.8

x

0.8

x

0.9

x

3.0

x

4.3

x

4.6

x

Emperor (1)

 

China

 

3.15

 

2.40

 

3.90

 

35,106

 

51,268

 

8.3

x

8.1

x

9.3

x

0.7

x

0.7

x

0.8

x

4.8

x

4.8

x

5.1

x

 

Sources FactSet, I/B/E/S estimate from Bloomberg as of 12/17/2004

 


Notes

(1).  Market cap. equals to H share price multiplied by total number of shares

 

7



Strictly Confidential

Preliminary Draft for Internal Discussion

 

Project Shenzhou

 

Market Views on Bauhinia

 

Recommendation of Equity Research Analysts

 

 

 

 

[CHART]

 

Source  Bloomberg

 

Recommendation of Equity Research Analysts on Bauhinia

 

Date

 

Research House

 

Price at Report Date
(HK$)

 

Target Price
(HK$)

 

Recommendation

 

12/8/2004

 

DBS Vickers

 

2.925

 

2.90

 

Fully Valued

 

11/24/2004

 

Morgan Stanley

 

3.075

 

3.60

 

Overweight / In-Line

 

11/18/2004

 

UBS

 

3.075

 

2.40

 

Reduce 2

 

10/12/2004

 

CSFB

 

3.25

 

2.10

 

Maintain Underperform

 

10/6/2004

 

Citigroup

 

3.15

 

2.23

 

Sell (3) / High Risk (H)

 

8/25/2004

 

CICC

 

2.75

 

3.90

 

Buy

 

8/24/2004

 

Core Pacific

 

2.625

 

3.70

 

Buy

 

8/23/2004

 

Deutsche Bank

 

2.625

 

4.20

 

Buy

 

 

Sources  Bloomberg as of 12/17/2004 & selected equity research reports from 8/23/2004 to 12/8/2004

 

8



Strictly Confidential

Preliminary Draft for Internal Discussion

 

Project Shenzhou

 

Section 3

 

Precedent Transaction Analysis

 



 

Strictly Confidential

Preliminary Draft for Internal Discussion

 

Project Shenzhou

 

Precedent Transaction Analysis

 

                  Comparison Issues with Privatization Transaction

 

                  Premium paid in minority squeeze out / privatization transactions in Hong Kong provide some insights into historical valuation premium required for majority shareholders to gain full control of a publicly listed company

 

                  Many of the Hong Kong privatization transactions since 2001 have involoved property companies. Due to the significant trading discount to NAV during this period, offerors have generally been required to offer a significant premium to the trading price in order to increase chances of a successful privatization

 

                  Asian petrochemical Industry Precedent M&A Transactions

 

                  After a lull in M&A activity in the petrochemical sector, 6 recent transactions have set valuation benchmarks for how strategic investors are valuing strategic and/or opportunistic acquisition targets during the middle of the current industry cycle

 

                  Relevant causes included the lack of visibility on the economic horizon, weak petrochemical industry outlook and Middle East capacity expansion concerns

 

                  Target and Acquirer valuation expectations have thus converged and aligned as pressure has increased on Target companies to restructure their balance sheets and as Acquirer companies have better indications of the overall industry recovery

 

                  We have adjusted multiples for petrochemical cycle considerations for the purposes of our analysis

 

9



Strictly Confidential

Preliminary Draft for Internal Discussion

 

Project Shenzhou

 

Precedent Transactions

 

Completed Minority Squeeze-out Transactions on Hong Kong Stock Exchange

 

Selected Hong Kong Minority Squeeze-Out Transactions Since 2001 (Over US$50 MM)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Size

 

 

 

Offer Premium / (Discount) Over Share Price X
Trading Days Prior to Suspension Day

 

Offer Premium /
(Discount) Over

 

Offer Premium /
(Discount) Over

 

Ann. Date

 

Acquiror

 

Target

 

(HK$)

 

(US$
mm)

 

GO Stake
%

 

1 Trading
Day

 

10 trading
days

 

30 trading
days

 

90 trading
days

 

Adjusted Net Asset
Value Per Share

 

Net Tangible Asset
Value Per Share

 

5/26/2003

 

Consortium

 

Pacific Concord Holdings Ltd.

 

908

 

116

 

43.0

 

51.2

 

58.9

 

60.6

 

46.3

 

-55.4

 

-64.5

 

5/3/2003

 

COFCO (Hong Kong Limited)

 

Top Glory International Holding

 

1,016

 

130

 

41.1

 

72.1

 

80.9

 

74.5

 

73.7

 

-44.8

 

-44.8

 

12/17/2002

 

New Asia Realty & Trust Co. Ltd.

 

Realty Development Corp.

 

1,016

 

130

 

25.8

 

28.0

 

31.6

 

45.1

 

59.0

 

-18.8

 

NA

 

4/11/2001

 

DBS Group Holdings Ltd.

 

Dao Heng Bank Group Ltd

 

41,918

 

5,374

 

28.7

 

59.9

 

64.6

 

58.3

 

47.3

 

NA

 

NA

 

2/7/2001

 

Pacific Concord Holdings Ltd.

 

Concord Land Dvlp Co

 

440

 

56

 

25.0

 

66.7

 

72.8

 

64.7

 

76.8

 

NA

 

-77.9

 

1/11/2001

 

Hong Lok International Ltd.

 

Mingly Corporation Ltd.

 

835

 

107

 

36.4

 

29.6

 

45.8

 

55.8

 

41.7

 

-40.2

 

-33.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MEAN

 

51.2

 

59.1

 

59.8

 

57.5

 

-39.8

 

-55.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MEDIAN

 

55.6

 

61.8

 

59.5

 

53.2

 

-42.5

 

-54.6

 

 

Sources  Company circular, announcement, closing prices from Factset

 

10



Strictly Confidential

Preliminary Draft for Internal Discussion

 

Project Shenzhou

 

Precedent Transaction Analysis

 

Selected Asian Petrochemical Industry M&A Transactions

 

Premiums Paid in Recent Selected Petrochemical Transactions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Implied

 

Implied

 

Aggregate Value / Latest
Available Annual
(1)

 

Implied

 

 

 

Date
Announced

 

Acquiror / Target

 

Transaction Description

 

%
Acquired

 

Equity Value
$MM

 

Agg. Value
$MM

 

Sales
x

 

EBITDA
x

 

LTMP/E
x

 

Cycle

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/31/2004

 

Sinopec Corp. / Petrochemical Assets

 

Sinopec Corp. purchased Petrochemical Assets from Sinopec Group (including Tianjin, Luoyang, Zhongyuan, Maoming, Guangzhou Petrochemical) for RMB$1.97 Bn in order to broaden Sinopec Corp.’s core business through significant expansion of the scale of its petrochemical facilities

 

100.0

%

239

 

1,489

 

0.8

 

3.6

 

1.7

 

Up

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7/29/2004

 

Honam Petrochemical Corp / KP Chemical Corp

 

SOUTH KOREA - Honam Petrochemical Corp agreed to acquire a 53.8% interest, or 51.017 mil ordinary shares, in KP Chemical Corp (KC), a chemical manufacturer, for 813.5 bil Korean won ($697.169 mil). The consideration was to consist of 178.5 mil Korean won ($152.975 mil) in cash and the assumption of 635 bil Korean won ($544.195 mil) in debt

 

53.8

%

284

 

667

 

0.7

 

5.7

 

47.8

 

Mid

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/28/2003

 

Sinopec Corp. / Maoming Ethylene

 

Sinopec Corp. purchased Ethylene Assets from Sinopec Group for RMB$3.2 Bn in order to enhance its leverage to the anticipated upturn of the petrochemical cycle and expand its existing petrochemical business

 

100.0

%

399

 

668

 

1.0

 

5.0

 

11.0

 

Mid

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1/30/2003

 

LG Chem Ltd. & Honam Petrochemical /Hyundai Petrochemical

 

An investor group comprised of Honam Petrochemical Corp and Petrochemical LG Chem Ltd acquired the entire share capital of Hyundai Petrocdhemical Co Ltd (each obtained 50% equity) from the creditors led by Woori Bank, for 1.76 tril Korean won

 

100.0

%

513

 

1,487

 

0.9

 

6.5

 

5.9

 

Mid

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/2/2002

 

Atofina SA / Samsung General Chem Co. Ltd

 

Atofina and SGC have entered into a JV agreement under which SGC will contribute all its assets for a 50% stake in the JV. Atofina is expected to pay US$750MM in cash for its 50% stake. The JV aims to fortify the already existing position of SGC in Asia

 

50.0

%

1,099

 

1,490

 

1.1

 

6.9

 

12.7

 

Mid

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5/19/2002

 

Reliance Petroleum / IPCL

 

Reliance was selected by Indian government to buy a 26% stake in IPCL for Rs14.9 Bn ($304 MM), and to assume managerial control. Reliance must make a public offer to buy a futher 20% from public shareholders at the same price, raising the acquisition’s total value to Rs 26.4 Bn

 

26.0

%

1,165

 

8,274

 

0.7

 

4.7

 

5.3

 

Trough

 

Mean

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.9

 

5.4

 

14.1

 

 

 

Median

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.8

 

5.3

 

8.5

 

 

 

 

Sources  Company announcement, financials and news run

 


Note

(1). Latest available annualized financial data prior to announcement date based on public information

 

11