EX-99.(C)(2) 2 d31935a1exv99wxcyx2y.htm PRESENTATION OF BEAR, STEARNS & CO, INC. exv99wxcyx2y
 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)
Highly Confidential
Presentation to the Board of Directors
Regarding Project Perseus
December 18, 2005

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
Table of Contents
             
Section            
1       Transaction Overview
 
           
2       Process Overview
 
           
3       Perseus Overview
 
           
4       Valuation Analysis
 
           
 
  A       Valuation Summary
 
           
 
  B       Comparable Company Analysis
 
           
 
  C       Precedent Transactions Analysis
 
           
 
  D       Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
 
           
Appendices
 
           
 
  A       Depreciation Expense Analysis
Confidential

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)
Section 1
Transaction Overview

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
Summary of Proposed Transaction
Key Terms and Conditions
     
Transaction Structure
  Cash merger (the “Transaction”)
 
   
Consideration
  $9.50 per share, which implies an equity value of $199.1M and enterprise value of $263.4M(1)
 
   
Options Treatment
  Options to purchase Perseus shares will be cancelled and settled in cash(2)
 
   
Tax Treatment
  Taxable to Perseus shareholders
 
   
Break-up Fee
  Break-up fee equal to $8.25 million (approximately $0.40 per share, or 3.1% of enterprise value) plus transaction-related expenses capped at $1.0 million
 
   
         
Closing Conditions
  n   Perseus shareholder approval (by a simple majority);
 
 
  n   Receipt of financing;
 
 
  n   Expiration of waiting period under Hart-Scott Rodino Act;
 
 
  n   Material consents under agreements;
 
 
  n   All consents, approvals and authorizations required by a Government entity have been obtained;
 
 
  n   No injunctions, restraints or other legal prohibitions;
 
 
  n   Representations and warranties are true and correct in all material respects;
 
 
  n   Performance of all obligations to be performed under the Agreement;
 
 
  n   Compliance with covenants; and
 
 
  n   No material adverse change at Perseus
 
(1)   Based on 20.959M net diluted shares outstanding, $75.0M of debt and $10.8M of cash (excluding $11.2M of cash related to uncashed commission checks and customer deposits and $6.1M related to SERP funding). The schedule of stock options was provided to us by Perseus management. Other financial data is from the Company’s 9/30/05 10Q or provided by management.
 
(2)   Option Settlement = (Merger Consideration – Exercise Price of such option) * number of shares, which could have been purchased assuming full vesting of the option.
Confidential

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
Summary of Transaction Financing
Key Terms and Conditions(1)
         
Transaction Financing
  n   $110M committed debt financing from JPMorgan (plus a $10M unfunded revolver)
 
 
  n   The balance in committed equity from Prides Capital and other investors
 
Debt Commitment Conditions (in addition to Closing Conditions)
  n   Documentation conditions — general requirements for legal opinions, evidences of authority, lien documentation and search results and guarantees, evidence of reasonably satisfactory insurance;
 
 
  n   Representations and warranties in the loan documents are true and correct in all material respects;
 
 
  n   No existing default or prepayment event is occurring and no liens (other than the bank’s liens) will be created by the transactions;
 
 
  n   A rating from each of S&P and Moody’s;
 
 
  n   The equity contribution is received(2);
 
 
  n   No provision of the merger agreement shall be waived in a manner materially adverse to the lenders;
 
 
  n   The CEO, CFO and COO shall have contributed at least $1.5 million of the equity contribution;
 
 
  n   The Company shall have entered into an employment agreement satisfactory to JPMorgan with each of the CEO, CFO and COO(3);
 
 
  n   Any payments to senior management made in connection with the merger will be paid by Prides out of additional equity above the amount of committed equity;
 
 
  n   All existing debt of Perseus shall have been repaid in full;
 
 
  n   All costs and transaction fees shall be paid;
 
 
  n   Lenders shall have received a solvency certificate and certain financial information;
 
 
  n   Material consents shall be obtained and there shall be no judicial action or proceeding pending or threatened against the deal; and
 
 
  n   Pro Forma EBITDA for the most recent LTM shall be at least $32 million.
 
Equity Commitment Conditions
  n   Completion of the merger (only condition)
 
(1)   We have examined drafts of the lender’s debt commitment and the buyer’s form of equity commitment but have not yet received final versions of these agreements.
 
(2)   Note that the financing contingency in the Merger Agreement only applies to the debt financing and not receipt of the equity financing.
 
(3)   Currently being deliberated.
Confidential

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
Perseus Summary Valuation
     
Summary Valuation   ($ in millions, except per share data)
                 
    At Market(1)     At Transaction Price of  
Price per Share   $8.24     $9.50  
Premium
            15.3 %
 
               
Basic Shares Outstanding
    20.766       20.766  
Dilutive Effect From “In the Money” Options
    0.138       0.193  
 
           
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding
    20.904       20.959  
 
               
Equity Value
  $ 172.2     $ 199.1  
Plus: Debt
    75.0       75.0  
Less: Cash(2)
    (10.8 )     (10.8 )
 
           
Enterprise Value
  $ 236.5     $ 263.4  
Key Valuation Statistics
                         
            At Market(1)     At Transaction Price of  
Price Per Share   Management     $8.24     $9.50  
Enterprise Value/EBITDA
                       
CY 2005E
  $ *       *       *  
CY 2006E
    36.8       6.4       7.2  
Enterprise Value/EBIT
                       
CY 2005E
  $ *       18.5 x       20.6 x  
CY 2006E
    15.0       15.8       17.5  
Price/Earnings
                       
CY 2005E
  $ *       23.4 x       27.0 x  
CY 2006E
    0.40       20.8       24.0  
 
Note:   Projections provided by Perseus management.
 
(1)   Closing price per share at market as of December 14, 2005. Note that after the market closed on April 11, 2005, Perseus announced it was exploring strategic alternatives including a potential sale of the Company.
 
(2)   Excludes $11.2 million of cash related to uncashed commission checks and customer deposits and $6.1 million related to SERP funding. Source: Perseus management.
Confidential
*   Confidential Treatment Requested

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)
Section 2
Process Overview

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
Overview of Potential Buyer Universe
Bear Stearns conducted an extensive marketing effort.
(FLOW CHART)
Confidential

 


 

     
(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)
  Project Perseus
Process Summary
On April 11, 2005, the Company announced that it had retained Bear Stearns to explore strategic alternatives.
n   Bear Stearns initially contacted 79 potential buyers beginning in May 2005
    16 strategic buyers
 
    56 US financial sponsors
 
    7 European financial sponsors
n   40 potential buyers signed confidentiality agreements and received a copy of the Project Perseus Executive Summary
    10 strategic buyers
 
    28 US financial sponsors
 
    2 European financial sponsors
n   We received five preliminary indications of interest for the entire company at the end of June when Perseus’ stock price was $10.75
    *: $12.00-$14.00
 
    Financial Sponsor: $12.50-$14.00
 
    Financial Sponsor: $10.50-$12.00 (Market)
 
    Financial Sponsor: $10.75 (Market)
 
    Strategic Buyer: $10.50-$11.00 (Market)
n   In addition, we received indications from five strategic buyers who were interested only in certain parts of the Company
         
Confidential
    5  

* Confidential Treatment Requested

 


 

         
(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)
      Project Perseus
Process Summary (cont.)
n   After receiving preliminary indications of interest, six potential buyers were invited into the second round
    Buyers interested in whole company
      - *
 
      - Financial Sponsor
    Buyers interested in whole or in parts of the Company (with specific interest noted)
      - Strategic Buyer —Distribution, Reservation and Financial
 
      - Strategic Buyer —Representation
 
      - Strategic Buyer —Representation
 
      - Strategic Buyer —Representation
n   Management made formal presentations to each of the interested buyers and gave each party access to the online data room and Bear Stearns coordinated follow-up due diligence information and meetings with each of the buyers
n   By the time final bids were due in late August, Prides was the only party that had not dropped out of the auction process
n   Since late August, the process has primarily focused on Prides and their obtaining committed financing
    We have had informal subsequent conversations with certain of the parties that dropped out of process but none have expressed interest in reengaging
 
    Prides has gone to multiple sources to obtain its committed debt financing
         
Confidential
    6  

* Confidential Treatment Requested

 


 

     
(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)
  Project Perseus
Feedback from Parties that Declined
We received similar feedback from multiple parties with respect to their reasons for dropping out of our process.
n   Weak operating performance relative to the lodging/travel sector
    Projected 2005 sales and EBITDA declining
 
    Flat revenues and profits historically relative to projected growth and margin expansion
 
    Growth driven by new product initiatives (HotelBook, uniqueHotels and SPARC) that have not been successful historically (Business Intelligence, Pegasus Central)
 
    Significant effort required to achieve growth and margin targets
n   Not a compelling combination of businesses
    Several parties were aligned to either the Representation Services or Technology Offerings
 
    Lack of clear strategic fit with operations of strategic parties (too many additional parts)
n   Valuation at or below current market price
    Company is trading at a high valuation relative to historical and near-term growth rates and its peers
         
Confidential
    7  

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)
Section 3
Perseus Overview

 


 

     
(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)
  Project Perseus
Perseus Historical Price Performance—Last Twelve Months
(GRAPH)
         
A
  12/14/2004   Provides Updated Outlook for Fourth Quarter 2004 and Guidance for First Quarter and Full Year 2005
 
       
B
  2/8/2005   Reports Earnings Results for Fourth Quarter 2004; Provides Updated Outlook for First Quarter and Full Year 2005
 
       
C
  4/11/2005   Announces Lower Earnings Outlook for First Quarter 2005; Board Announces Intention to Explore Strategic Alternatives
 
       
D
  5/3/2005   Reports Earnings Results for First Quarter 2005; Provides Earnings Guidance for Second Quarter 2005
 
       
E
  6/29/2005   Announces Intention to Exit the Property Management System Business
 
       
F
  7/12/2005   Blum Files 13D Disclosing the Sale of 205,200 Shares of Perseus Stock
 
       
G
  8/4/2005   Reports Earnings Results for Second Quarter 2005; Provides Earnings Guidance for Third Quarter 2005
 
       
H
  9/7/2005   Blum Announces Intention Not to Sell Any Additional Shares Until After Release of Third Quarter 2005 Results
 
       
I
  10/21/05   Multi-Systems Inc. Agrees to Buy Perseus’ Property Management Systems Business
 
       
J
  11/05/05   Reports Earnings Results for Third Quarter 2005; Provides Earnings Guidance for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2005
 
Source:   ThomsonOne Banker.
         
Confidential
    8  

 


 

     
(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)
  Project Perseus
Comparative Historical Stock Price Performance
     
Three Months
  Since Announcement(1)
 
(GRAPH)
  (GRAPH)
 
   
One Year
  Two Years
 
(GRAPH)
  (GRAPH)
(LEGENDS)
 
Source: ThomsonOne Banker.
 
(1) April 11,2005.
 
(2) Includes Cendant and Sabre.
 
(3) Includes Expedia and Priceline.
         
Confidential
    9  

 


 

     
(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)
  Project Perseus
Premium/(Discount) Analysis—Last Twelve Months
(GRAPH)
                 
    Premium/(Discount) to Average Stock Price
    At Transaction Price   At Market(1)
Period   $9.50   $ 8.24
One Month
    28.7 %     11.7 %
Three Months
    16.9       1.4  
Six Months
    1.7       (11.8 )
Since Announcement(2)
    (2.4 )     (15.4 )
One Year
    (9.2 )     (21.2 )
 
Source: ThomsonOne Banker.
 
(1) Closing price per share at market as of December 14, 2005.
 
(2) After the market closed on April 11, 2005, Perseus announced it was exploring strategic alternatives including a potential sale of the Company.
         
Confidential
    10  

 


 

     
(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)
  Project Perseus
Recent Perseus Trading Ranges
Share Volume Traded at Various Prices per Period
(GRAPH)
 
Source: ThomsonOne Banker, December 14, 2005.
         
Confidential
    11  

 


 

     
(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)
  Project Perseus
Equity Research Coverage Has Declined Significantly
Number of Firms Providing Equity Research Coverage(1)
(GRAPH)
 
(1) Source: ThomsonOne Analytics, Thomson Research.
 
(2) Bear Stearns, JP Morgan, Citigroup, Legg Mason, CIBC and Sidoti.
 
(3) Bear Stearns, Legg Mason, CIBC and Thomas Weisel.
 
(4) Bear Stearns.
         
Confidential
    12  

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
Perseus Historical and Projected Income Statement
($ in millions)
                                                                                           
    Historical Year Ended December 31,       Projected Calendar Year Ending December 31,     CAGR     CAGR  
    2002(1)     2003(2)     2004(3)       2005     2006     2007     2008     2009     2010     ‘02–’05     ‘05–’10  
Revenue
  $ 186.5     $ 172.7     $ 190.1         *     $ 183.6     $ 192.8     $ 202.4     $ 213.6     $ 224.8       *       *  
% Growth
            (7.4 %)     10.1 %       *       3.6 %     5.0 %     5.0 %     5.5 %     5.3 %                
 
                                                                                         
EBITDA
  $ 37.6     $ 34.8     $ 36.9         *     $ 36.8     $ 39.1     $ 43.6     $ 49.9 %   $ 56.0       *       *    
Margin
    20.2 %     20.1 %     19.4 %       *       20.0 %     20.3 %     21.5 %     23.4 %     24.9 %                
% Growth
            (7.5 )     6.3         *       15.0       6.3       11.4       14.5       12.3                  
 
                                                                                         
EBITA
  $ 21.0     $ 17.2     $ 20.1         *   $ 18.2     $ 20.5     $ 25.0     $ 31.3 %   $ 37.4       *       *  
Margin
    11.3 %     9.9 %     10.6 %       *       9.9 %     10.7 %     12.3 %     14.7 %     16.7 %                
% Growth
            (18.3 )     17.3         *       14.5       12.8       21.7       25.3       19.6                  
 
                                                                                         
EBIT
  $ 3.0     $ 12.1     $ 18.1         *     $ 15.0     $ 17.4     $ 23.1     $ 30.6 %   $ 36.8       *       *  
Margin
    1.6 %     7.0 %     9.5 %       *       8.2 %     9.0 %     11.4 %     14.3 %     16.4 %                
% Growth
            301.0       50.4         *       17.3       16.2       32.4       32.6       20.3                  
 
                                                                                         
Net Income
  $ 2.7     $ 7.6     $ 10.6         *     $ 8.6     $ 10.7     $ 14.8     $ 20.2 %   $ 24.6       *       *  
Margin
    1.5 %     4.4 %     5.6 %       *       4.7 %     5.5 %     7.3 %     9.5 %     11.0 %                
% Growth
            181.8       39.0         *       15.6       24.4       38.7       36.4       21.9                  
 
                                                                                         
EBITDA – CapEx
  $ 7.2     $ 15.4     $ 14.3         *     $ 16.8     $ 19.1     $ 23.6     $ 29.9 %   $ 36.0       *       *  
% Growth
            111.8 %     (6.6 %)       *       40.1 %     13.9 %     23.2 %     26.8 %     20.5 %                
       
 
Note:   Projections provided by Perseus management.
 
(1)   Excludes a $3.5 million one-time customer termination fee revenue from Reservation Services.
 
(2)   Excludes $5.9 million of one-time restructuring expenses. In addition, EBITDA excludes $3.8 million of non-recurring expenses related to severance, the Company’s strategic integration and facilities moving costs.
 
(3)   Excludes $2.3 million of restructuring expenses related to the Company’s IT organization and a $2.0 million gain on the sale of Travelweb, LLC.
     
Confidential   13

* Confidential Treatment Requested

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
Financial Outlook Has Declined
Since launching the process with potential buyers in May, the financial outlook for the Company has declined and the Company has subsequently lowered its projections.
Revenue   EBITDA
 
(CHART)   (CHART)
 
EBIT(1)   Net Income(1)
 
(CHART)   (CHART)
(LEGENDS)
 
Note: $ in millions.
 
(1)   Excludes amortization of software and intangibles obtained through acquisitions.
 
(2)   Projections that were included in the selling memorandum.
     
Confidential    
* Confidential Treatment Requested

14


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
Financial Outlook Has Declined (cont.)
The Company also missed the financial guidance it issued publicly in early 2005.
n   In February 2005, the Company issued calendar year 2005 and Q1 2005 revenue and EPS guidance
 
n  
When the Company announced it had retained Bear Stearns to explore strategic alternatives in April, it announced that it would miss its Q1 guidance and did not offer updated full-year guidance
 
n   In November, the Company gave Q4 and calendar year 2005 revenue and EPS guidance
Calendar Year 2005 Guidance
                         
    February 2005     November 2005     % Change(1)  
Revenue ($M)
  $ 199-$207     $ 175-$177       (13.7 %)
EPS
  $ 0.55-$0.65     $ 0.42-$0.45       (27.5 %)
 
 
Source:   Company press releases.
 
(1)   Based on midpoint of ranges.
     
Confidential   15

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
Declining Operating Performance
Most P&L metrics in 2005 are down on a quarter-over-quarter basis from the prior year.
Revenue   EBITDA
 
(CHART)   (CHART)
EBIT(1)   Net Income(1) (2)
 
(CHART)   (CHART)
(LEGENDS)
 
Note:   $ in millions.
 
Source:   Perseus management.
 
(1)   Excludes amortization of software and intangibles obtained through acquisitions.
 
(2)   From continuing operations, does not include results of discontinued operations.
     
Confidential   16
*   Confidential Treatment Requested

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
Perseus Ownership Shareholder Profile(1)
(PIE CHART)
                 
Shareholder   # of Shares     % of Total  
Blum Capital
    2,883,000       13.9 %
Columbia Wanger Asset Mgmt
    2,324,000       11.2  
Prides Capital Partners
    2,066,000       10.0  
Dimensional Fund Advisors
    1,771,000       8.5  
Barclays Bank PLC
    1,369,000       6.6  
Tudor Investment Corp.
    1,234,000       5.9  
Par Investment Partners
    1,000,000       4.8  
AXA
    682,136       3.3  
Fidelity
    528,540       2.5  
Vanguard
    463,936       2.2  
 
           
Top 10 Shareholders
    14,321,612       69.0 %
Management(2)
    175,818       0.9  
All Other Shareholders
    6,243,577       30.1  
 
           
Total Shareholders
    20,741,007       100.0 %
 
           
 
(1)   Source: Bloomberg. Share ownership as of 12/14/2005.
 
(2)   Source: Proxy dated 3/17/2005. Excludes shares underlying options.
     
Confidential   17

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)    
Section 4
Valuation Analysis

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)    
Section 4-A
Valuation Summary

 


 

( BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
Valuation Overview
We observed that the purchase price is within or above the range of per share values implied from the valuation methodologies shown below.
Valuation Ranges Based on Perseus Projections
(CHART)
 
(1)   As of December 14, 2005. Note that after the market closed on April 11, 2005, Perseus announced it was exploring strategic alternatives including a potential sale of the Company.
 
(2)   Based on CY 2006 management projections.
 
(3)   Implied share prices based on DCF analysis using a discount rate of 17.0% and a terminal EBIT multiple of 12.0x.
     
Confidential   18

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)    
Section 4-B
     Comparable Company Analysis

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
     
Summary Comparable Company Analysis
n   We identified five publicly traded companies that are engaged in travel distribution and reselling
    We consider Cendant, Sabre and TRX to be the most comparable peers given their supplier-side operations
 
    Expedia and Priceline are also generally comparable, although they focus on travel reselling
P/E Multiples
 
(CHART)
 
Note:   Perseus projections provided by management. Comparable company projections based on FirstCall consensus.
     
Confidential   19

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
Summary Comparable Company Analysis (cont.)
n   On this page, we examined EBIT multiples as opposed to EBITDA multiples due to different accounting policies related to internally generated software costs
 
n   Perseus capitalizes a higher percentage of its internally developed software costs than peers resulting in lower relative operating expenses as outlined in Appendix A
EBIT Multiples
(CHART)
 
Note:   Perseus projections provided by management. Comparable company projections based on FirstCall consensus.
     
Confidential   20

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
Travel Marketing and Distribution Trading Statistics
     
Selected Comparable Company Valuations   ($ in millions, except per share data)
                                                                         
    Perseus     Travel Processing & Distribution     Online Travel Resellers  
    Market     Transaction     Cendant     Sabre     TRX     Mean     Expedia     Priceline     Mean  
Price (as of 12/14/05)
  $ 8.24     $ 9.50     $ 16.73     $ 24.16     $ 8.88             $ 25.36     $ 23.70          
Equity Value
  $ 172.2     $ 199.1     $ 17,425.9     $ 3,195.8     $ 156.8             $ 8,699.4     $ 953.9          
Enterprise Value
    236.5 (1)     263.4 (1)     21,883.9       4,201.4       133.7               8,542.6       1,061.9          
Enterprise Value / EBITDA LTM
    7.6 x     8.4 x     7.7 x     10.5 x     16.8 x     11.6 x     12.5 x     16.0 x     14.3 x
CY2005E
    *       *       8.1       9.7       12.4       10.1       12.6       15.4       14.0  
CY2006E
    6.4       7.2       6.9       8.2       6.9       7.3       11.0       12.3       11.7  
Enterprise Value / EBITDA-CapEx LTM
    37.0 x     41.2 x     9.1 x     13.3 x   NM     11.2 x     13.6 x     18.9 x     16.3 x
CY2005E
    *       *       9.5       12.1     NM     10.8       13.7       18.1       15.9  
CY2006E
    14.1       15.7       8.0       10.2       13.6       10.6       11.7       14.0       12.8  
Enterprise Value / EBITA LTM
    17.5 x     19.5 x     9.0 x     12.9 x   NM     11.0 x     13.2 x     19.5 x     16.3 x
CY2005E
    *       *       9.6       12.7     NM     11.2       13.3       17.6       15.5  
CY2006E
    13.0       14.5       8.0       10.6       13.8       10.8       11.4       14.0       12.7  
Enterprise Value / EBIT LTM
    19.7 x     21.9 x     9.5 x     14.6 x   NM     12.1 x     21.9 x     26.5 x     24.2 x
CY2005E
    18.5       20.6       10.1       14.5     NM     12.3       21.7       24.2       22.9  
CY2006E
    15.8       17.5       8.4       11.9       13.9       11.4       17.0       22.3       19.7  
Price / Earnings CY2005E
    23.4 x     27.0 x     12.8 x     16.4 x   NM     14.6 x     21.0 x     17.4 x     19.2 x
CY2006E
    20.8       24.0       11.2       14.6       17.1       14.3       19.5       15.2       17.4  
Long-Term Growth
    * %(2)     * %(2)     13.2 %     10.0 %     22.5 %     15.2 %     15.1 %     16.3 %     15.7 %
PEG CY2006
    0.77 x     0.89 x     0.85 x     1.46 x     0.76 x     1.02 x     1.29 x     0.93 x     1.11 x
 
 
Note:   Perseus projections provided by management. Comparable company projections based on FirstCall consensus.
 
(1)   Excludes $11.2 million of cash related to uncashed commission checks and customer deposits and $6.1 million related to SERP funding. Source: Perseus management.
 
(2)   Represents 2005E-2010E net income CAGR based on projections provided to us by management. No Wall Street equity analyst has published long-term EPS growth rate estimates.
     
Confidential   21
*   Confidential Treatment Requested

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
Comparable Company Benchmarking Analysis
CY 2004–CY 2006 Revenue CAGR
(CHART)
2006 EBIT Margin
(CHART)
 
Source:   Perseus projections provided by management. Comparable company projections are based on First Call consensus.
     
Confidential   22

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)
Section 4-C
Precedent Transactions Analysis

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
Summary Selected Precedent Transactions Analysis
     
n
  Identified three precedent transactions in the travel processing and distribution sector
    Transaction values ranged from $900M to $5.4B
 
    Completed transactions were announced between June 2001 and January 2005
                                                                                         
($ in millions)  
                                                                            LTM        
Date Announced-           Transaction     Transaction Value / LTM     Transaction Value/Forward     EBITDA     LTM EBIT  
Effective   Target/Acquiror     Value     Revenue     EBITDA     EBIT     Revenue     EBITDA     EBIT     EPS     Margin     Margin  
1/12/05–7/4/05
  Amadeus/Cinven-BC Partners   $ 5,430.1       2.21 x     8.3 x     13.2 x     2.05 x     7.6 x     12.0 x     15.6 x     26.7 %     16.7 %
3/4/03–7/1/03
  Worldspan/Travel Trans. Processing     901.5       0.99       4.6       7.6     NA   NA   NA   NA     21.6       12.9  
6/18/01–10/1/01
  Galileo International/Cendant     2,340.0       1.42       4.1       6.6       1.26       3.9     NA     10.2       34.9       21.7  
 
          Mean     1.54 x     5.6 x     9.1 x     1.65 x     5.8 x     12.0 x     12.9 x     27.7 %     17.1 %
 
          Median     1.42       4.6       7.6       1.65       5.8       12.0       12.9       26.7       16.7  
 
                                                                   
Perseus (At Transaction)
                    1.43 x     8.4 x     21.9 x     1.43 x(1)     7.2 x(1)     17.5 x(1)     24.0 x(1)     16.9 %     6.5 %
     
n
  Although there were M&A transactions in the online travel space, we do not consider them to be comparable to Perseus given the higher growth and margin characteristics of those companies
 
(1)   Based on CY2006 management projections.
     
Confidential   23

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)
Section 4-D
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
Discounted Cash Flow Methodology
We applied a discounted cash flow analysis to the Perseus projections. The following outlines our approach:
     
n
  Projected results for 2006 through 2010 are based on projections provided by Perseus management
 
n
  The annual after-tax unlevered free cash flows for fiscal year 2006 through 2010 were valued using discount rates ranging from 16.0% to 18.0%
 
n
  The terminal value was calculated using LTM EBIT multiples of 11x to 13x
 
n
  Valuation based on the DCF is highly sensitive to the achievement of the underlying projections
    For instance, a 5% EBITDA shortfall from projected levels results in approximately $1 per share of net present value
     
Confidential   24

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
Illustrative Perseus DCF Analysis Based on 17.0% Discount Rate
Perseus Projected Free Cash Flow
                                         
    ($ in millions)  
    Years Ending December 31,  
    2006E     2007E     2008E     2009E     2010E  
EBITDA
  $ 36.8     $ 39.1     $ 43.6     $ 49.9     $ 56.0  
Annual Growth
    *       6.3 %     11.4 %     14.5 %     12.3 %
Margin
    20.0       20.3       21.5       23.4       24.9  
 
                                       
Less: Depreciation and Amortization
  ($ 21.8 )   ($ 21.7 )   ($ 20.5 )   ($ 19.3 )   ($ 19.2 )
 
                             
EBIT
  $ 15.0     $ 17.4     $ 23.1     $ 30.6     $ 36.8  
Annual Growth
    *       16.2 %     32.4 %     32.6 %     20.3 %
Margin
    8.2       9.0       11.4       14.3       16.4  
 
                                       
NOPAT(1)
  $ 15.0     $ 17.4     $ 23.1     $ 19.6     $ 23.6  
Plus: Depreciation and Amortization
    21.8       21.7       20.5       19.3       19.2  
Less: Capital Expenditures
    (20.0 )     (20.0 )     (20.0 )     (20.0 )     (20.0 )
Plus: Decrease/(Increase) in Working Capital
    (1.5 )     1.1       0.5       0.0       0.0  
 
                             
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
  $ 15.3     $ 20.2     $ 24.1     $ 18.9     $ 22.8  
Annual Growth
            32.2 %     19.0 %     (21.6 %)     20.6 %
Value Based on Terminal EBIT Multiple
   
                 
PV of 2006–2010 Free Cash Flows
  $ 68.6       25.4 %
PV of Terminal Value(2)
    201.7       74.6  
 
           
Enterprise Value
  $ 270.3       100.0 %
Less: Net Debt (3)
    (64.3 )        
 
             
Equity Value
  $ 206.0          
 
             
 
               
Basic Shares Outstanding(4)
    20.766          
Net Dilutive Effect of In the Money Options(5)
    0.205          
 
             
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding
    20.971          
Implied Price per Share
  $ 9.82          
 
             
 
    Note: Present value of unlevered free cash flow calculated using the mid-year discounting convention.
 
(1)   Assumes there are no taxes paid in 2006-2008 due to a net operating loss carryforward. Assumes a 36.0% tax rate in 2009 and 2010.
 
(2)   Based on a terminal LTM EBIT multiple of 12.0x.
 
(3)   Includes debt of $75.0 million and cash of $10.8 million as of September 30, 2005. Cash excludes $11.2 million of cash related to uncashed commission checks and customer deposits and $6.1 million related to SERP funding.
 
(4)   Per Company’s 10-Q dated September 30, 2005.
 
(5)   In-the-money options and shares repurchased under the treasury method are based on the implied price per share. The options schedule was provided by the Company.
     
Confidential   25
*   Confidential Treatment Requested

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
Discounted Cash Flow Sensitivity Analysis
Equity Value per Share
                                         
    EBIT Exit Multiple  
WACC   11.0x     11.5x     12.0x     12.5x     13.0x  
16.00%
  $ 9.48     $ 9.89     $ 10.30     $ 10.70     $ 11.10  
16.50
    9.26       9.66       10.06       10.46       10.85  
17.00
    9.04       9.43       9.82       10.22       10.60  
17.50
    8.82       9.21       9.59       9.98       10.36  
18.00
    8.61       8.99       9.37       9.74       10.12  
Sensitivity to Projected Performance(1)
                                         
Realization   EBIT Exit Multiple  
Rate(2)   11.0x     11.5x     12.0x     12.5x     13.0x  
     110%
  $ 10.95     $ 11.39     $ 11.81     $ 12.24     $ 12.65  
     105
    10.00       10.42       10.83       11.24       11.65  
     100
    9.04       9.43       9.82       10.22       10.60  
     95
    8.07       8.43       8.80       9.16       9.53  
     90
    7.09       7.43       7.77       8.11       8.44  
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate
                                         
    EBIT Exit Multiple  
WACC   11.0x     11.5x     12.0x     12.5x     13.0x  
16.00%
    9.6 %     9.9 %     10.1 %     10.4 %     10.6 %
16.50
    10.1       10.4       10.6       10.8       11.0  
17.00
    10.6       10.8       11.1       11.3       11.5  
17.50
    11.0       11.3       11.6       11.8       12.0  
18.00
    11.5       11.8       12.0       12.3       12.5  
 
(1)   Based on a discount rate of 17.0%.
(2)   Represents realization of EBITDA in each projected period.
     
Confidential   26

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)   Project Perseus
Perseus—Weighted Average Cost of Capital Analysis
         
Assumptions  
Risk-free Rate(1)
    4.7 %
 
       
Market Risk Premium(2)
    7.2  
 
       
Market Capitalization Premium(3)
    4.5  
 
       
Perseus Marginal Tax Rate
    36.0  
 
       
Pre-Tax Cost of Debt(4)
    8.5  
Unlevered Beta Calculation
                                         
            Historical Observed                
            Adjusted Beta(6)                
                                    Unlevered  
Comparable Company   Barra Beta(5)     2-Year Weekly     5-Year Monthly     Debt/Equity(7)     Beta(8)  
Cendant
    1.28       0.98       1.45       27.6 %     1.08  
Sabre
    1.15       1.35       1.54       43.5       0.90  
TRX
    0.86     NA     NA       4.2       0.84  
Expedia
    1.86       1.56       1.38       0.0       1.86  
Priceline
    1.93       1.68       2.72       23.4       1.67  
 
Mean(9)
    1.42       1.39       1.77       19.8 %     1.27  
Perseus
    1.15       1.09       1.12       43.5       0.90  
WACC Calculation
                                                 
   Debt/   Debt/     Unlevered Betas  
   Equity(7)     Capitalization       0.90     1.00   1.20     1.40     1.60  
10.0%
    9.1 %     14.2 %     14.9 %     16.1 %     17.4 %     18.7 %
20.0
    16.7       14.6       15.3       16.6       17.9       19.3  
30.0
    23.1       14.9       15.6       17.1       18.5       19.9  
40.0
    28.6       15.2       16.0       17.5       19.0       20.5  
50.0
    33.3       15.6       16.4       18.0       19.5       21.1  
 
    Note: WACC = Kd * D/(D+E) + Ke * E/(D+E).
 
(1)   Yield on 20-year Treasury Bond as of 12/14/05.
 
(2)   Long-term horizon expected equity risk premium. Source: Ibbotson Associates.
 
(3)   Source: Ibbotson Associates.
 
(4)   BSC HY Capital Markets estimate for Perseus’ long-term fixed borrowing rate.
 
(5)   Barra Beta as of 12/14/05.
 
(6)   Source: ThomsonOne Banker.
 
(7)   Total debt divided by market value of equity.
 
(8)   Unlevered Beta = Barra Beta/(1+ (1-tax)*D/E).
 
(9)   Mean excludes Perseus.
     
Confidential   26

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)
Appendices

 


 

(BEAR STEARNS LOGO)
Appendix A
Depreciation Expense Analysis

 


 

     
(BEAR STEARNS LOGO) 
   Project Perseus
 
Non-comparability of EBITDA Multiples
Perseus’ depreciation expense is significantly higher than the travel processing and
distribution peer group.
2004 EBITDA Margin
(BAR GRAPH)
Confidential   28

 


 

     
(BEAR STEARNS LOGO) 
   Project Perseus
 
Capitalized Internally Developed Software Costs
Perseus capitalizes a larger portion of its internally developed software costs than its peers. This results in lower operating expenses but higher depreciation for Perseus vis-à-vis its peers. We believe this difference in accounting results in incomparable EBITDA margins and multiples.
     
Capitalized Software Cost as a Percent of Revenue
  Capitalized Software Cost as a Percent of Total PP&E
 
   
     
(BAR GRAPH)   (BAR GRAPH)
Confidential   29