EX-99.C.2 2 dex99c2.htm FINANCIAL ANALYSIS Financial Analysis

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UBS Investment Bank

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STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

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Project Fox

Preliminary Background Materials

March 5, 2008


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This presentation has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC (“UBS”) and Goldman, Sachs & Co. (“Goldman Sachs”) for the exclusive use of the party to whom UBS and Goldman Sachs deliver this presentation (the “Company”) using information provided by the Company and other publicly available information. UBS and Goldman Sachs have not independently verified the information contained herein, nor do UBS or Goldman Sachs make any representation or warranty, either express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this presentation. Any estimates or projections as to events that may occur in the future (including projections of revenue, expense, net income and stock performance) are based upon the best judgment of UBS and Goldman Sachs from the information provided by the Company and other publicly available information as of the date of this presentation. There is no guarantee that any of these estimates or projections will be achieved. Actual results will vary from the projections and such variations may be material. Nothing contained herein is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise or representation as to the past or future. UBS and Goldman Sachs expressly disclaim any and all liability relating or resulting from the use of this presentation.

This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. The Company should not construe the contents of this presentation as legal, tax, accounting or investment advice or a recommendation as to a particular course of action or the timing thereof. The Company should consult its own counsel and tax advisors as to legal and related matters concerning any transaction described herein. This presentation does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the information that the Company may require. No investment, divestment or other financial decisions or actions should be based solely on the information in this presentation.

This presentation has been prepared on a confidential basis solely for the use and benefit of the Company; provided that the Company and any of its employees, representatives, or other agents may disclose to any and all persons, without limitation of any kind, the tax treatment and tax structure of the transaction and all materials of any kind (including opinions or other tax analyses) that are provided to the Company relating to such tax treatment and tax structure. Distribution of this presentation to any person other than the Company and those persons retained to advise the Company, who agree to maintain the confidentiality of this material and be bound by the limitations outlined herein, is unauthorized. This material must not be copied, reproduced, distributed or passed to others at any time without the prior written consent of UBS and Goldman Sachs.

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Table of Contents

SECTION 1 Executive Summary 1 SECTION 2 Assessment of Fox Financial (FF) 5 SECTION 3 FF Financial Considerations 11 SECTION 4 Next Steps 25

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SECTION 1

Executive Summary

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Situation Overview

A minority buy-in of FF’s Class A common shares presents an opportunity to increase both the strategic and financial value of Fox’s FF ownership

– achieves optimal strategic alignment and allows for enhanced client focus

– opportunity to fully integrate FF, leading to strategic and financial benefits

We have continued to evaluate a potential minority buy-in of FF – preliminary perspectives on forming an offer price

– key operational / integration issues for Fox to consider in the context of a minority buy-in

– engaging constituents (e.g., rating agencies, employees, policyholders, shareholders, regulators, advisors, etc.)

Our presentation today focuses on the following key considerations – strategic rationale and considerations related to a minority buy-in of FF – how FF has performed historically on an absolute and relative basis – how FF’s stock price trades relative to its peers – developing the framework for an offer price

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Why Take FF Private?

Rationale Considerations

Enhances ability to pursue “customer-centric” Reduction of statutory surplus and related rating business model agency considerations

Facilitates shared business / operating model activities – Fox to remain in an excess capital position over its “AA-” rating needs

Greater flexibility to grow or shrink businesses

Strategic Focus

Potential near-term rating

agency pressure

Increases diversification of earnings

– notching issue at S&P

Loss of stock currency at FF to

pursue M&A opportunities and incent / compensate management

Enables free flow of capital between businesses More limited access to capital for Fox Financial

Tax consolidation benefits

Enhanced / optimized investment approach

Financial Impact

Potential expense synergies

Increases ownership in relatively high-ROE-potential business

Eliminates or significantly reduces the costs, time and Some limited SEC reporting still necessary effort of being a publicly-traded company Administrative / Simplifies organizational structure

Governance /

Eliminates potential conflicts

Legal

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Selected Transaction Considerations

Strategic and financial interplay

Offer / Valuation Framework

Determine optimal funding for transaction

Financing

Other potential financing / capital needs for Fox (e.g., other M&A, investments, etc.)?

Convey strategic rationale

Address potential rating agency concerns in near-term given reduction to excess capital position, increased leverage Rating Agencies and execution risks

Communicate pro forma financial impact and financing plan – address risk profile, financial flexibility and diversification

Fox and FF policyholders / customers / stakeholders

Fox agents

Other Key All enterprise associates

Constituents

Ohio Department of Insurance and other regulators

Shareholders (existing and new) and / or market observers

FF third-party distributors

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SECTION 2

Assessment of Fox Financial (FF)

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FF Historical Reported Financial Performance

Historical Revenue—As Reported

6,000

CAGR = 3.6%

5,000 4,416 4,563 4,529 4,168 3,937 4,000 mm) 3,000 $ (

2,000

1,000

0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Historical Net Income and EPS—As Reported

800 Net Income CAGR = 11.4% 6.00 EPS CAGR = 13.1%

4.80 5.00 600 3.97( 4.37 4.00 $ 3.38 mm) 400 3.00 $ 724

( 2.67 610 627

516 2.00 per share) 200 407 1.00

0 0.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Net Income EPS

CAGR (%) I/B/E/S Est. ($)1 2.90 3.12 3.55 3.90 4.24 10.0

Historical Return on Equity—As Reported

14.0 Average = 11.6% 13.3 12.1

12.0 11.3 11.4 9.7 10.0 8.0 (%) 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Average I/B/E/S Est. (%)1 10.1 10.8 10.9 11.0 10.8 10.7

Source: SEC Filings; Statistical Supplements Note:

1 Historical I/B/E/S Consensus Median Estimates for FF as of December 31 of the prior year

Historical Book Value and BVPS (ex. AOCI)—As Reported

Book Value (ex. AOCI) CAGR = 5.5%

6,000 50.00

BVPS (ex. AOCI) CAGR = 8.0%

38.29 39.03 5,000

34.67 40.00 31.49 4,000 28.73( $ 30.00 mm) 3,000 5,591 5,406 $ 5,287

( 4,802 20.00 2,000 4,364 per share) 10.00 1,000

0 0.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Book Value BVPS (ex. AOCI)

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FF Historical Adjusted Financial Performance

Historical Revenue—Adjusted

6,000 CAGR = 3.9%

4,563 4,682 5,000 4,209 4,398 4,023 4,000 mm) 3,000 $

( 2,000 1,000 0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Historical Net Income and EPS—Adjusted

750 Operating Income CAGR = 8.3% 6.00 EPS CAGR = 9.9%

600 5.00 4.03( $ 3.60 3.87 4.50 4.00 450 mm) 3.00 $ 300 3.09 594 607 646

( 471 551 2.00 per share) 150 1.00

0 0.00 2003 2004 2005¹ 2006² 2007³ Operating Income EPS

CAGR (%) I/B/E/S Est. ($)4 2.90 3.12 3.55 3.90 4.24 10.0

Historical Return on Equity—Adjusted

15.0 Average = 11.6%

12.0 11.8 11.8 11.2 11.2 12.0

9.0 (%) 6.0

3.0

0.0

2003 2004 2005¹ 2006² 2007³

Average I/B/E/S Est. (%)4 10.1 10.8 10.9 11.0 10.8 10.7

Historical Book Value and BVPS (ex. AOCI)—As Reported

Book Value (ex. AOCI) CAGR = 5.5%

6,500 55.00

BVPS (ex. AOCI) CAGR = 8.0%

5,200 38.29 39.03 44.00 34.67( $ 28.73 31.49 mm) 3,900 33.00 $ 2,600 5,287 5,591 5,406 22.00

( 4,364 4,802 per share) 1,300 11.00

0 0.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Book Value BVPS (ex. AOCI)

Adjusted figures exclude realized investment gains / (losses) and non-recurring financial items

Source: SEC Filings and Statistical Supplements

Notes: Figures comprised of normalized, operating results as reported by FF and are adjusted further as noted in the footnotes below. Assumes 35% tax rate on all earnings adjustments

1 2005 net operating income adjusted further for (i) $21.7 million charge related to early termination of FF’s 7.10% junior subordinated debentures due 2028 in the 3rd quarter of 2005 and (ii) $48.2 million of tax benefits and recoverables relating to a refinement of FF’s separate account dividend received deduction (DRD) process in the 3rd quarter of 2005

2 2006 net operating income adjusted further for $114.2 million of tax reserve releases in the 2nd quarter of 2006

3 2007 net operating income adjusted further for (i) FF’s review of its deferred acquisition costs (“DAC”) profitability and a corresponding pre-tax benefit in DAC amortization of $216.5 million in the 2nd quarter of 2007, (ii) $135 million of pre-tax charge to DAC amortization related to a new feature added to FF’s guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit rider the 2nd quarter of 2007, and (iii) $10.2 million charge related to early termination of FF’s 8.00% senior notes due 2027 in the 1st quarter of 2007

4 Historical I/B/E/S Consensus Median Estimates for FF as of December 31 of the prior year

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Performance of FF Relative to Peers

2003–2007 Revenue Growth (CAGR)

20.0 19.0

2007 FF Revenue Decline: (0.7%) 2007 Avg. Peer Revenue Growth: 11.3%

15.0

11.7

10.4 10.2 Peer Median = 10.2%

(%) 10.0 8.7 8.2

5.0 3.6

0.2 0.0 LNC PL MET PRU PFG AMP¹ FF GNW²

2003–2007 Net Income Growth (CAGR)

40.0 36.1

2007 FF Net Income Decline: (13.4%) 2007 Avg. Peer NI Decline: (3.3%)

32.0

24.1 24.0

(%) 19.1 18.1 Peer Median = 18.1%

16.0

11.4 7.5 8.0

2.6 1.8 0.0 PRU LNC AMP¹ MET FF PL PFG GNW²

2006-2007 Operating EPS Growth

24.0 2007 EPS= $4.83

20.6 20.0

1.6 17.7

5.4 0.0 15.8 Peer Median = 15.8%

16.0

4.0 11.9 11.7 9.6

3.0 1.8 18.4 17.7 5.3 (%) 8.0 15.2 5.4 11.8 8.9 8.7 6.4 4.3 0.0 (6.9) (8.0) PRU MET PL AMP PFG FF³ GNW LNC Growth in Operating Income Growth from Share Buybacks; Share Dilution

2007 Return on Equity

20.0

16.4

15.0 13.3

12.8 Peer Median = 12.0%

12.0

11.4

10.5 10.1 9.8 (%) 10.0

5.0

0.0

PRU MET PFG PL FF LNC AMP GNW

2007 ? 1.3 (8.8) (3.4) (0.9) (1.9) (2.6) 2.2 (1.3) (% pts)

Source: SEC Filings; Statistical Supplements Notes:

1 Financial results for Ameriprise Financial calculated for calendar years ended 2005-2007; Ameriprise’s initial public offering completed on 9/15/2005

2 Financial results for Genworth Financial calculated for calendar years ended 2004-2007; Genworth’s initial public offering completed on 5/25/2004

3 Financial results for FF presented on an adjusted basis and exclude realized investment gains / (losses) and non-recurring financial items

4 Figures reflect impact from merger with Jefferson Pilot, financed with cash and stock, closed on April 3, 2006

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1997 2007

Ranking Market Share Ranking Market Share Product (#) (%) (#) (%)

Variable Annuities – New Sales 6 5.9 13 3.3 Variable Annuities – Assets 5 4.0 13 3.5 Variable Life – Sales Premiums1 7 na 8 4.6 Small Case 401(k) Plans2 3 na 5 na 457 Plans3 1 26.8 1 20.4 Life Industry Assets4 14 2.5 15 2.2 Life Industry Sales4 30 1.0 30 0.4

Source: VARDS for annuity data; AM Best for industry data; Tillinghast-Towers Perrin for variable life data Notes:

1 2007 sales premium figure shown as of 9/30/07

2 Historical rankings data for small case 401(k) plans are as of 2002 (not 1997) and 2006 (not 2007)

3 Historical rankings and market share data for 457 plans are as of 2004 (not 1997) and 2006 (not 2007)

4 Industry assets and industry sales as of 9/30/07

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I/B/E/S Estimates

FF Earnings Per Share

7.00

I/B/E/S ‘07-’10 CAGR = 15.1% 6.29 6.00 5.25 5.00 4.75

per share) 4.00 3.00 $ (

2.00

1.00

0.00

2008E 2009E 2010E

FF Return on Average Equity

16.0

 

I/B/E/S ‘07-’10 Avg. = 12.6%

14.0 13.5 12.6 11.8 12.0

10.0

(%) 8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

2008E 2009E 2010E

 

Source: I/B/E/S Consensus Median Estimates

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SECTION 3

FF Financial Considerations

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Summary of Methodologies

Analytical Building Blocks

¨ Historical and current trading and valuation levels for Fox Financial

— P/E, P/B and ROE levels

— valuation relative to comparables and performance — key factors driving historical and future performance

¨ Precedent minority interest acquisition transactions — identify appropriate universe of transactions

¨ Other considerations

— standalone / intrinsic value — pro forma effects (e.g., expense / revenue synergies, capital, ratings, etc.) — research analyst / investor perspectives

Strategic Overlay

¨Potential value created through transaction — strategic value of full ownership — potential opportunities for synergies

¨ Rating agency considerations / implications — financing considerations — ratings impact

¨ Interests of Fox Financial

¨ Negotiation strategy / approach for offer

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FF Trading Performance

Historic Stock Price Performance—Last 5 Years

70 3,000

60 2,500 50

) 2,000 Volume $ 40 1,500 30 Stock Price ( 1,000 (000s) 20

10 500

0 0 2/28/03 2/28/04 2/27/05 2/28/06 2/28/07 2/29/08 Volume FF

Share Price Analysis

 

10-Yrs 5-Yrs 3-Yrs 1-Yr YTD

High ($) 64.59 64.59 64.59 64.59 44.45 Low ($) 20.31 32.33 33.85 39.01 39.01 Average ($) 40.18 41.50 46.67 52.54 42.47 Ave. Daily Trading Vol. (000) 228.90 279.15 282.95 404.18 484.58 Ave. Daily Trading Vol. ($mm) 9,097 11,692 13,431 20,745 20,458

Total Annual Shareholder Returns Analysis1

 

10-Yrs 5-Yrs 3-Yrs 1-Yr YTD

FF (%) 0.8 13.8 6.4 (20.9) (8.4) Annuity & Life Composite (%)2 3.8 16.7 8.1 (12.3) (8.9) S&P 500 (%) 4.6 12.1 5.6 (3.3) (9.4) S&P 500 Financials (%) 4.0 7.9 (1.3) (25.6) (12.0)

Source: FactSet

 

Notes: Market data as of February 29, 2008

1 Total annual returns calculated as internal rate of return (on a compounded basis) based on appreciation of stock price (or equity index) and taking into consideration stockholder dividends

2 Represents median of Selected Publicly-Traded Annuity & Life Insurance Companies composite; composite consists of: AMP, GNW, LNC, MET, PFG, PL and PRU

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FF Relative Stock Price Performance

Indexed Price Performance—Since 3/5/1997 IPO to 12/31/2002

350.0 3Q 2001: 2Q 2002:

Fox acquires Sale of Gartmore Provident Mutual to Fox Mutual

3Q 2001:

300.0 9/11 Attacks. S&P 500 down 17% in following year

CAGR:

250.0 2000–2001:

Demutualization and IPOs of MetLife, Principal and Prudential

Annuity &

 

200.0

Life2 11.8%

 

(%) 150.0

S&P 500 1.7%

100.0 FF 1.1%

3Q 2002: 1Q 1997: FF incurs 50.0 FF completes IPO $225mm DAC on 3/5/1997 write-down

 

0.0

 

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Indexed Price Performance—1/1/2003 to Present

300.0 1Q 2007:

Introduction of Fox Bank

250.0 4Q 2005:

Lincoln merger CAGR: with Jefferson Pilot

Annuity &

200.0 Life2

14.0%

3Q 2003:

Manulife merger with John Hancock

S&P 500

 

(%) 150.0

8.3% FF 7.3%

 

100.0

1Q 2007:

1Q 2005: Acquisition of FF issues 1st GMWB NWD Investments rider on VA policies

 

50.0

 

0.0

 

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

FF Selected Publicly-Traded Annuity & Life Insurance Companies¹ S&P 500

 

Source: FactSet

 

Notes: Market data as of February 29, 2008

1 Selected Publicly-Traded Annuity & Life Insurance Companies composite consists of: AMP, GNW, LNC, MET, PFG, PL and PRU

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Total Annual Returns Analysis

Total Annual Shareholder Returns 1—Last 5-Years

25.0

 

Annuity & Life Average = 16.6%

21.3

20.0 18.7

S&P 500 = 12.1%

16.7 16.7

15.0 13.8 (%)

9.8 10.0

5.0

0.0

PRU MET LNC PFG FF PL

Total Annual Shareholder Returns 2—Last Year

0.0

(5.0)

(6.6)

(7.8) (10.0)

(11.1)

 

S&P 500 = (3.3%) (12.3) (15.0) (%) Annuity & Life Average = (16.0%)

(20.0)(18.5)

(20.9)

(22.8) (25.0)

(30.0)

(35.0)(33.3) MET PFG PL AMP PRU FF LNC GNW

 

Source: Company filings; FactSet

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Notes: Market data as of February 29, 2008

1 Total annual returns calculated as internal rate of return (on a compounded basis) of each company’s stock price from 2/28/2003 to 2/29/2008, and taking into consideration stockholder dividends paid each year; does not include Ameriprise Financial and Genworth Financial, which were not publicly traded

2 Total annual returns calculated as internal rate of return of each company’s stock price from 2/28/2007 to 2/29/2008 and taking into consideration stockholder dividends paid annually

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Historical Multiples Analysis

Price / NTM EPS Multiples—Last 5 Years

18.0 Averages (x)

FF Annuity & Life² Last 5-Years 10.7 11.5 Last 3-Years 11.0 11.6 16.0 Last Year 11.2 11.2 Year-to-Date 8.7 9.4 90-Days 8.9 9.7 60-Days 8.7 9.4 30-Days 8.8 9.4

14.0

(x) 12.0

Annuity & Life2 10.0 9.4x FF

8.7x 8.0

6.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Price / Book Value Multiples1—Last 5 Years

2.25 Averages (x)

FF Annuity & Life² Last 5-Years 1.19 1.36 2.05 Last 3-Years 1.29 1.46 Last Year 1.37 1.46 Year-to-Date 1.10 1.25 90-Days 1.12 1.28 1.85 60-Days 1.10 1.25 30-Days 1.11 1.25

1.65

(x) 1.45

Annuity & Life2 1.25 1.21x

FF 1.05 1.07x

0.85

0.65

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

FF Selected Publicly-Traded Annuity & Life Insurance Companies²

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Source: FactSet; I/B/E/S Consensus Median Estimates Notes: Market data as of February 29, 2008

1 Book value figures include accumulated other comprehensive income

2 Selected Publicly-Traded Annuity & Life Insurance Companies composite consists of: AMP, GNW, LNC, MET, PFG, PL and PRU

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Comparison of Selected Publicly-Traded Annuity & Life Companies

 

Price as % Implied Price as a

 

Stock Market of 52-Wk Price as Multiple of: ‘08–’09 Multiple of Dividend LT EPS 2008E Price Cap High ‘08E EPS ‘09E EPS EPS Growth Book Value2 Yield Growth Debt/Cap1 ROAE

 

($ ) ($bn) (%) (x) (x) (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%)

FF 41.25 5.7 63.9 8.7 7.9 10.5 1.06 2.5 9.0 18.5 11.8

MetLife 58.26 42.5 82.2 9.4 8.5 10.5 1.37 1.3 10.0 24.6 13.2 Prudential Financial 72.97 33.2 70.7 9.4 8.1 16.0 1.53 1.6 13.2 36.8 15.7 Principal Financial 55.23 14.3 78.1 13.3 11.5 15.7 2.22 1.6 12.0 21.8 15.2 Lincoln Financial 51.11 13.5 68.6 8.8 7.9 11.6 1.18 3.2 11.5 23.5 13.1 Ameriprise Financial 50.64 11.5 75.6 11.4 10.1 12.4 1.45 1.2 11.0 21.0 12.0 Genworth Financial 23.18 10.1 63.5 8.7 6.4 36.3 0.79 1.7 10.0 23.3 8.9 Protective Life 38.59 2.7 75.9 9.4 8.6 9.8 1.07 2.3 9.0 27.2 10.8

Median 75.6 9.4 8.5 12.4 1.37 1.6 11.0 23.5 13.1 High 82.2 13.3 11.5 36.3 2.22 3.2 13.2 36.8 15.7 Low 63.5 8.7 6.4 9.8 0.79 1.2 9.0 21.0 8.9

Source: SEC filings; FactSet; I/B/E/S Consensus Median Estimates

 

Notes: Market data as of February 29, 2008; Financial data as of 12/31/2007

1 Debt to capital ratio based on Moody’s adjusted leverage ratios

2 Book value figure excludes accumulated other comprehensive income

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18

Regression Analysis

2008E Return on Average Equity vs. Price-to-Book Value Multiples1,2

2.70 Premium/(Discount) to Regression (%)

2.50 Current (2/29/08)(10.5)

30-Days Prior(10.5) PFG

2.30 60-Days Prior(11.2) y = 10.33x—0.04

90-Days Prior(13.6) R2 = 0.76 2.10 1-Year Prior(1.6) 3-Years Prior³(14.0) 1.90 5-Years Prior (15.6)

1.70 MET

AMP

PRU 1.50 Price-to-Book Value (x) 1.30 1.10 PL

LNC 0.90 FF

GNW 0.70

0.50

8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 2008E Return on Average Equity (%)

Source: Statistical Supplements; I/B/E/S Consensus Median Estimates

 

Notes: Bubble sizes based on market capitalization; market data as of February 29, 2008

1 Book value figures exclude accumulated other comprehensive income

2 Regression analysis excludes Principal Financial Group

3 3-years prior regression does not include Ameriprise Financial, which was not publicly traded

4 5-years prior regression does not include Ameriprise Financial and Genworth Financial, which were not publicly traded

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19

Summary of Research Analyst Perspectives

Analyst Recommendations

Selected Publicly-Traded Annuity FF & Life Insurance Companies 1

 

Buy Sell Sell 3% 8% 8%

 

Buy Hold 49% 84% Hold 48%

Evolution of Analyst Estimates

6.00 $5.25 2009E $4.75 5.00 2008E $4.37 per share) 2007A 4.00 $

($ 4.80 2006A

3.00

Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08

Selected Analyst Sentiments2

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Month Implied Price ‘08–’09

Target EPS Estimates ($) EPS Growth Last Company Recommendation ($) 2008E 2009E (%) Report

Argus Research Hold – 4.85 5.25 8.2 1/7/08 Banc of America Neutral 47.00 4.83 5.40 11.8 2/8/08 Citigroup Buy 50.00 4.85 5.60 15.5 2/25/08 Credit Suisse Neutral 48.00 4.75 – – 2/8/08 Deutsche Bank Hold 49.00 4.90 5.55 13.3 2/8/08 Fox-Pitt Cochran In-Line – 4.53 5.22 15.2 2/26/08 J.P. Morgan Neutral – 4.60 – – 2/7/08 KBW Market Perform 46.00 4.50 5.00 11.1 2/11/08 Langen

McAlenney Equal-Weight – 4.65 5.00 7.5 2/8/08 Merrill Lynch Neutral – 4.60 5.10 10.9 2/22/08 Morgan Stanley Equal Weight/In-Line 48.00 4.70 5.15 9.6 2/8/08 Raymond James Market Perform – 4.80 5.25 9.4 2/11/08 Sanford Bernstein Market Perform 56.00 4.85 5.50 13.4 1/22/08 Wachovia Market Perform 43.50 4.85 5.40 11.3 2/8/08

Median 48.00 4.78 5.25 11.2 High 56.00 4.90 5.60 15.5 Low 43.50 4.50 5.00 7.5

Source: Company filings; Bloomberg; FactSet Note: Data as of February 29, 2008

1 Selected Publicly-Traded Annuity & Life Insurance Companies composite consists of: AMP, GNW, LNC, MET, PFG, PL and PRU

2 Excludes certain brokers

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Summary of Selected Minority Buy-In Transactions—Insurance Only

Legal Initial Change in Merger % Aggregate Consideration Paid Premium over 1 Final Publicly Change in: Exchange Announce or Cash Acquired Consideration Cash Stock 1-Day 1-Wk 52-Wk. High Premium 2 Announced Premium Bid Price Ratio Date Parent Subsidiary Tender (%) ($bn) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Bumps (% pts) 3 (%)4 (%)

7/17/07 Alfa Mutual Alfa Corp. Merger 46 0.95 100 0 16 16 (12) 45 1 29 25 na 2/22/07 American Financial Great American Merger 19 0.2 100 0 9 10 (3) 15 1 5 4 na 1/24/07 AIG 21st Century Merger 39 0.8 100 0 21 18 10 31 1 13 11 na 8/30/00 AXA Group AXA Financial Merger 40 10.5 64 36 2 8 (3) 10 1 2 2 9 3/27/00 Hartford Fin. Hartford Life Tender 19 1.3 100 0 3 22 (20) 40 1 18 15 na 3/21/00 Citigroup Travelers P&C Tender 15 2.4 100 0 23 38 (1) 40 1 2 1 na 10/27/98 Allmerica Financial Citizens Corp. Tender 18 0.2 100 0 5 2 (17) 17 1 15 15 na 9/18/97 Orion Capital Guaranty National Tender 19 0.1 100 0 5 17 4 24 1 7 6 na 1/13/97 Zurich Versicherungs Zurich Reinsurance Merger 34 0.4 100 0 17 19 (7) 30 1 11 10 na 12/17/96 Allmerica Financial Allmerica P&C Merger 41 0.8 53 47 2 (1) (5) 13 1 14 14 4 8/26/96 Conseco Bankers Life Merger 10 0.1 0 100 15 10 3 10 0 0 0 0 8/25/95 Berkshire Hathaway GEICO Corp. Merger 49 2.3 100 0 26 23 2 23 0 0 0 na Median—All Deals 12 17 (3) 24 1 9 8 4 Median—Cash Deals Only 16 18 (3) 30 1 11 10 na High—All Deals 26 38 10 45 1 29 25 9 Low—All Deals 2 (1) (20) 10 0 0 0 0

Source: Securities Data Corp.; SEC filings

Notes: Includes minority buy-ins with considerations greater than $100mm since 1995

1 Premium calculated based on initial price offered for the transaction

2 Calculated as final agreed bid price over stock price 1-week prior to announcement of initial bid price

3 Calculated as increase from initial bid price as a premium over stock price 1–week prior to announcement

4 Calculated as increase from initial bid price to final bid price on an absolute basis

5 Transaction announced but not closed

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DRAFT 02082U978—8249b726

Summary of Selected Minority Buy-In Transactions—Non-Insurance

21

Legal Initial Change in Merger % Aggregate Consideration Paid Premium over 1 Final Publicly Change in: Exchange Announce or Cash Acquired Consideration5 Cash Stock 1-Day 1-Wk 52-Wk. High Premium 2 Announced Premium Bid Price Ratio Date Parent Subsidiary Tender (%) ($bn) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Bumps (% pts) 3 (%)4 (%)

11/20/06 Toronto-Dominion TD Banknorth Merger 43 3.2 100 0 7 8 (1) 8 0 0 0 na 10/9/06 VNU NV NetRatings Inc Merger 40 0.4 100 0 10 10 (6) 45 1 35 31 na 2/6/06 Lafarge SA Lafarge North America Tender 46 2.9 100 0 17 17 (9) 34 2 16 14 na 10/10/05 ev3 Inc Micro Therapeutics Merger 30 0.1 0 100 8 14 (17) 19 1 5 4 4 9/27/05 Vector Group New Valley Corp. Tender 42 0.1 0 100 7 6 (0) 24 1 18 17 17 9/12/05 Wachovia6 WFS Financial Inc Merger 16 0.5 0 100 80 85 73 85 0 0 0 0 9/1/05 IYG Holding Co. 7-Eleven Inc Tender 25 1.2 100 0 15 14 (8) 31 1 17 15 na 7/1/05 Santos Ltd Tipperary Corp. Merger 46 0.1 100 0 19 16 1 16 1 0 0 na 3/3/05 Vishay Intertechnology Siliconix Inc Tender 20 0.2 0 100 17 19 (33) 39 2 20 16 16 2/21/05 Novartis AG Eon Labs Inc Tender 33 0.9 100 0 11 8 (31) 8 0 0 0 na 1/27/05 Danisco AS Genencor Int’l. Tender 16 0.2 100 0 24 22 1 22 0 0 0 na 1/10/05 News Corp. Fox Entertainment Tender 41 6.0 0 100 3 2 (7) 10 1 8 7 7 Median—All Deals 13 14 (7) 23 1 7 6 7 Median—Cash Deals Only 15 14 (6) 22 1 0 0 0 High—All Deals 80 85 73 85 2 35 31 17 Low—All Deals 3 2 (33) 8 0 0 0 0

Source: Securities Data Corp.; SEC filings

Notes: Includes closed minority buy-ins with considerations greater than $100mm since 2005

1

 

Premium calculated based on initial price offered for the transaction

2

 

Calculated as final agreed bid price over stock price1-week prior to announcement of initial bid price;

3

 

Calculated as increase from initial bid price as a premium over stock price 1–week prior to announcement of initial bid price as a premium over stock price 1–week prior of announcement; for stock deals, the initial offer price is based on the initial exchange ratio multiplied by the price per share of the acquiror’s stock on one day prior to announcement; for stock deals, final offer price and premium based on the final exchange ratio multiplied by the price per share of the acquiror’s stock on the final day of trading of the target’s stock

4

 

Calculated as increase from initial bid price to final bid price on an absolute basis

5

 

For stock deals, amount purchased is based on 1) final offer price which is based on the final exchange ratio multiplied by the price per share of the acquiror’s stock on the final day of trading of the target’s stock and 2) the total number of non-parent owned outstanding shares

6

 

Announcement of Wachovia Corp. transaction 9/12/2005. Premiums based on stock price prior to 5/24/2004, representing the announcement date of the original Western Financial Bank conversion to a California state commercial bank and the acquisition of the minority interest in WFS Financial. The transaction was abandoned due to it’s taking longer than originally expected

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DRAFT

22

Review of FF Shareholder Base

Shareholder Overview

Shares % Outstanding Holder Name Style (000s) Total1 Class A2

Renaissance Technologies Corp. Hedge Fund 3,714 2.68 7.86 LSV Asset Management Value 2,743 1.98 5.80 Fidelity Management & Research GARP 2,037 1.47 4.31 Goldman Sachs Asset Management LP (US) Alternative 1,355 0.98 2.87 Vanguard Group, Inc. Index 1,321 0.95 2.79 Barclays Global Investors NA (CA) Index 1,094 0.79 2.31 State Street Global Advisors Index 709 0.51 1.50 AQR Capital Management LLC Hedge Fund 694 0.50 1.47 Federated Investment Management Co. Core Value 658 0.47 1.39 Charles Schwab Investment Management Index 611 0.44 1.29 CalPERS Generalist 585 0.42 1.24 Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. Alternative 576 0.42 1.22 TIAA-CREF Asset Management LLC Value 493 0.36 1.04 Earnest Partners LLC Core Value 465 0.34 0.98 Allianz Global Investors Specialty 445 0.32 0.94 Victory Capital Management, Inc. Core Value 380 0.27 0.80 Morgan Stanley & Co., Inc. Broker/Dealer 379 0.27 0.80 Caxton Associates LLC Hedge Fund 366 0.26 0.77 Martingale Asset Management LP Growth 357 0.26 0.75 Canada Pension Plan Investment Board GARP 347 0.25 0.73

Top 20 Holders 19,330 13.96 40.86 Total Institutional Holders 29,122 21.03 61.55

Source: FactSet; LionShares

Note: Ownership data as of December 31, 2007

1 Based on total Class A and Class B shares outstanding

2 Based on total Class A shares outstanding

Ownership Composition

Institutional 21.0%1 / 61.6%2

Insider 0.3%1 / 0.7%2

Retail Fox 12.4%1 / 37.7%2 66.3%¹

Institutional Ownership Style

Index Yield 8.7% 1.9%

Growth 16.5%

GARP 48.3%

Value 24.6%

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DRAFT

23

FF Shares Traded at Various Prices

Shares Traded over Last 3-Months

50.0

 

Weighted Average Price: $42.99

 

Total Volume: 30mm 37.5 40.0

 

ADTV/Float: 1.02%

 

(%) 30.0 26.5 Volume 20.0 12.5 13.2

 

9.5 10.0

 

0.9 0.0 $39.00- $40.50- $42.00- $43.50- $45.00- $46.50-$40.50 $42.00 $43.50 $45.00 $46.50 $48.00 Daily from 11/29/07 to 2/29/08

Shares Traded over Last 6-Months

 

50.0

 

Weighted Average Price: $46.82 Total Volume: 57mm 40.0 ADTV/Float: 0.94%

 

(%) 31.2

 

Volume 30.0 25.4 18.5 20.0 11.8 11.4 10.0 1.7 0.0 $35.00- $42.50- $45.00- $47.50- $50.00- $52.50-$42.50 $45.00 $47.50 $50.00 $52.50 $56.00 Daily from 8/29/07 to 2/29/08

Shares Traded over Last 1-Year

60.0 Weighted Average Price: $51.46 Total Volume: 103mm

50.0

 

ADTV/Float: 0.86%

 

40.0

 

(%) 31.1 30.0 Volume 24.8

 

20.0 16.1 14.1 11.3 10.0 2.5 0.0 $35.00- $40.00- $45.00- $50.00- $55.00- $60.00-$40.00 $45.00 $50.00 $55.00 $60.00 $65.00 Daily from 2/29/07 to 2/29/08

Shares Traded over Last 3-Years

60.0 Weighted Average Price: $47.54 Total Volume: 213mm 50.0 ADTV/Float: 0.61%

(%)

40.0 34.7 Volume

30.0 23.9 20.0 15.6 12.2

5.8 7.7 10.0

0.0 $33.00- $40.00- $45.00- $50.00- $55.00- $60.00-$40.00 $45.00 $50.00 $55.00 $60.00 $65.00 Daily from 2/29/05 to 2/29/08

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DRAFT

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Illustrative Analysis at Various Prices

Analysis should be viewed for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation on a valuation range.

Peer Median1 Current Illustrative Purchase Price ($)

Price per Share ($) 41.25 44.00 45.00 46.00 47.00 48.00 49.00 50.00 Aggregate Valuation2 ($bn) – 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8 7.0 Consideration to Minority Shareholders ($bn) – 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4

Price as a Multiple of (x): Data: Book Value (excl. AOCI) 39.03 1.37 1.06 1.13 1.15 1.18 1.20 1.23 1.26 1.28 2008E EPS 4.75 9.4 8.7 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5

2009E EPS 5.25 8.5 7.9 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.5 Premium/(Discount) to (%): Current Stock Price 41.25 – 0.0 6.7 9.1 11.5 13.9 16.4 18.8 21.2 1-Week Prior 43.04 – (4.2) 2.2 4.6 6.9 9.2 11.5 13.8 16.2 30-Day Average 42.69 – (3.4) 3.1 5.4 7.8 10.1 12.4 14.8 17.1 90-Day Average 43.20 – (4.5) 1.9 4.2 6.5 8.8 11.1 13.4 15.7 52-Week High (June 19, 2007) 64.59 – (36.1) (31.9) (30.3) (28.8) (27.2) (25.7) (24.1) (22.6) 52-Week Low (January 18, 2008) 39.01 – 5.7 12.8 15.4 17.9 20.5 23.0 25.6 28.2

Source: Company filings; FactSet; I/B/E/S Consensus Median Estimates Notes: Market data as of February 29, 2008

1 Median excludes Principal Financial Group

2 Aggregate valuation assumes that the low-vote Class A shares and the high-vote Class B shares are valued at the purchase price

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SECTION 4

Next Steps

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DRAFT

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Summary of Next Steps (Assumes Negotiated Merger)

Confirm strategic and financial merits of pursuing a minority buy-in of FF

If Fox decides to proceed, initiate proposed transaction by notifying FF’s Board of Directors of Fox’s interest / offer

– expect FF to convene / inform Special Committee of FF’s Board of Directors

– FF to possibly publicly disclose Fox’s interest / offer

Prepare necessary transaction documentation (including merger agreement) related to minority buy-in of FF

Negotiate merger agreement with FF

– negotiations would take place with Special Committee of FF’s Board of Directors

Close transaction

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DRAFT

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Illustrative Preliminary Timeline (Assumes Negotiated Merger)

 

Weeks

 

Activity Action 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

 

Fox Mutual Board of Directors’ authorizes expression of interest/offer Fox Mutual notifies FF Board of Directors of Fox Mutual’s interest/offer Initial Approach FF expected to file a press release/8-K

 

Special Committee of FF Board of Directors is formed and engages independent financial and legal advisors Fox Special Committee, along with legal/financial advisors, evaluates Fox Mutual’s offer 1

 

Fox Mutual, along with its legal/financial advisors, prepares transaction documents (e.g. Merger Agreement)

 

Fox Mutual negotiates terms of proposed transaction and transaction documents with FF’s Special Committee 2 FF to commence preparation of the Schedule 13E-3/Target Proxy Statement

 

Merger FF’s Special Committee determines fairness of transaction Negotiated Meeting of each of FF and Fox Mutual’s Board of Directors to vote on the transaction/Merger Agreement

 

Sign the Merger Agreement

 

FF files Form 8-K announcing signing of the Merger Agreement

 

FF’s Special Committee recommends transaction to shareholders

 

Notes:

1 The evaluation of an offer can take 2–4 weeks or longer

2 Alternative timetable would exist for tender offer (with or without negotiated back-end merger)

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DRAFT

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Illustrative Preliminary Timeline (Assumes Negotiated Merger)

 

Weeks

 

Activity Action 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

 

FF to deliver draft of the Schedule 13E-3/Proxy Statement to the working group FF and Fox Mutual to begin seeking the required third party and Activities governmental and regulatory consents, waivers and approvals pursuant to the Merger Agreement

 

FF to file the Schedule 13E-3/Proxy Statement with the SEC

 

Closing

 

FF to receive and respond to SEC comments to 13E-3/Proxy Statement Pre- FF to finalize and submit the final form of the Schedule 13E-3/Proxy Statement to the SEC

 

FF to print and mail proxy materials to FF’s stockholders

 

FF to prepare notice of merger, letter of transmittal and related materials for mailing to FF’s stockholders

 

FF to prepare agenda for special meeting of FF’s stockholders

 

Closing

 

Estimated date for the special meeting of FF’s stockholders to approve the Merger Agreement for Obtain all required third party and governmental and Prepare regulatory consents, waivers and approvals Issue Joint Press Release announcing the Closing

 

FF to file Form 8-K regarding the effectiveness of the Merger

 

FF to file Certificate of Merger in Delaware