Reserves for Losses and Loss Settlement Expenses

6 Months Ended

Jun. 30, 2019

Reserves for Losses and Loss Settlement Expenses

RESERVES FOR LOSSES AND LOSS SETTLEMENT EXPENSES

Property insurance indemnifies an insured with an interest in physical property for loss of, or damage to, such property or the loss of its income-producing abilities. Casualty insurance primarily covers liability for damage to property of, or injury to, a person or entity other than the insured. In most cases, casualty insurance also obligates the insurance company to provide a defense for the insured in litigation, arising out of events covered by the policy.

Liabilities for losses and loss settlement expenses reflect management's best estimates at a given point in time of what we expect to pay for claims that have been reported and those that have been incurred but not reported ("IBNR"), based on known facts, circumstances, and historical trends. Because property and casualty insurance reserves are estimates of the unpaid portions of incurred losses that have been reported to us, as well as losses that have been incurred but not reported, the establishment of appropriate reserves, including reserves for catastrophes, is an inherently uncertain and complex process. The ultimate cost of losses and related loss settlement expenses may vary materially from recorded amounts. We regularly update our reserve estimates as new information becomes available and as events unfold that may affect the resolution of unsettled claims. Changes in prior year reserve estimates, which may be material, are reported as a component of losses and loss settlement expenses incurred in the period such changes are determined.

The determination of reserves (particularly those relating to liability lines of insurance that have relatively longer lag in claim reporting) requires significant work to reasonably project expected future claim reporting and payment

patterns. If, during the course of our regular monitoring of reserves, we determine that coverages previously written are incurring higher than expected losses, we will take action that may include, among other things, increasing the related reserves. Any adjustments we make to reserves are reflected in operating results in the year in which we make those adjustments. We engage an independent actuary, Regnier Consulting Group, Inc., to render an opinion as to the reasonableness of our statutory reserves annually. The actuarial opinion is filed in those states where we are licensed.

On a quarterly basis, UFG's internal actuary performs a detailed actuarial review of IBNR reserves. This review includes a comparison of results from the most recent analysis of reserves completed by both our internal and external actuaries. Senior management meets with our internal actuary to review, on a regular and quarterly basis, the adequacy of carried reserves based on results from this actuarial analysis. There are two fundamental types or sources of IBNR reserves. We record IBNR reserves for "normal" types of claims and also specific IBNR reserves related to unique circumstances or events. A major hurricane is an example of an event that might necessitate establishing specific IBNR reserves because an analysis of existing historical data would not provide an appropriate estimate.

We do not discount loss reserves based on the time value of money.

The following table provides an analysis of changes in our property and casualty losses and loss settlement expense reserves at June 30, 2019 and December 31, 2018 (net of reinsurance amounts):




	June 30, 2019			December 31, 2018
Gross liability for losses and loss settlement expenses at beginning of year	$	1,312,483		$	1,224,183
Ceded losses and loss settlement expenses	(57,094		)	(59,871		)
Net liability for losses and loss settlement expenses at beginning of year	$	1,255,389		$	1,164,312
Losses and loss settlement expenses incurred for claims occurring during
Current year	$	379,507		$	785,778
Prior years	4,742			(54,167		)
Total incurred	$	384,249		$	731,611
Losses and loss settlement expense payments for claims occurring during
Current year	$	125,106		$	306,032
Prior years	222,102			334,502
Total paid	$	347,208		$	640,534
Net liability for losses and loss settlement expenses at end of year	$	1,292,430		$	1,255,389
Ceded loss and loss settlement expenses	49,236			57,094
Gross liability for losses and loss settlement expenses at end of period	$	1,341,666		$	1,312,483

There are a multitude of factors that can impact loss reserve development. Those factors include, but are not limited to: historical data, the potential impact of various loss reserve development factors and trends including historical loss experience, legislative enactments, judicial decisions, legal developments in imposition of damages, experience with alternative dispute resolution, results of our medical bill review process, the potential impact of salvage and subrogation and changes and trends in general economic conditions, including the effects of inflation. All of these factors influence our estimates of required reserves and for long tail lines these factors can change over the course of the settlement of the claim. However, there is no precise method for evaluating the specific monetary impact of any individual factor on the development of reserves.

For the three-month period ended June 30, 2019, the majority of unfavorable development came from commercial liability with a partial offset coming primarily from favorable development in workers compensation and commercial fire and allied lines. All other lines combined contributed a relatively minimal amount of overall unfavorable development during this three-month period. For the six-month period ended June 30, 2019, the

majority of unfavorable development came from commercial liability with a partial offset coming primarily from favorable development in workers compensation, and fidelity and surety. All other lines combined contributed a relatively minimal amount of overall unfavorable development during this six-month period. The unfavorable development in both periods in commercial liability was primarily from prior year reserve strengthening on auto liability and other liability claims.

For the three-month period ended June 30, 2018, the majority of favorable development came from two lines, workers compensation and reinsurance assumed with a partial offset coming from unfavorable development for commercial fire and allied lines and commercial other liability. All other lines combined also contributed some overall favorable development during this three-month period. For the six-month period ended June 30, 2018, the majority of favorable development came from three lines: commercial automobile, workers compensation, and commercial other liability. All other lines combined also contributed overall favorable development and only one line, reinsurance assumed, provided any unfavorable development during this six-month period. The favorable development is attributable to our continued litigation management efforts as well as favorable runoff of reserves for general loss adjustment expenses.

Generally, we base reserves for each claim on the estimated ultimate exposure for that claim. We believe that it is appropriate and reasonable to establish a best estimate for reserves within a range of reasonable estimates, especially when we are reserving for claims for bodily injury, disabilities and similar claims, for which settlements and verdicts can vary widely. Our reserving philosophy may result in favorable reserve development in future years that will decrease losses and loss settlement expenses for prior year claims in the year of adjustment. We realize that this philosophy, coupled with what we believe to be aggressive and successful claims management and loss settlement practices, has resulted in year-to-year redundancies in reserves. We believe our approach produces recorded reserves that are reasonably consistent as to their relative position within a range of reasonable reserves from year-to-year. However, conditions and trends that have affected the reserve development for a given year do change. Therefore, such development cannot be used to project future reserve redundancies or deficiencies.

We are not aware of any significant contingent liabilities related to environmental issues. Because of the type of property coverage we write, we have potential exposure to environmental pollution, mold and asbestos claims. Our underwriters are aware of these exposures and use riders or endorsements to limit exposure.