EX-99.2 3 d485185dex992.htm EX-99.2 EX-99.2

Exhibit 99.2

 

LOGO

Management’s discussion and analysis

for the quarter ended March 31, 2023

 

5

FIRST QUARTER MARKET UPDATE

 

9

OUR STRATEGY

 

11

CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL RESULTS

 

18

OUTLOOK FOR 2023

 

20

LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

 

23

FINANCIAL RESULTS BY SEGMENT

 

26

OUR OPERATIONS - FIRST QUARTER UPDATES

 

28

QUALIFIED PERSONS

 

29

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

This management’s discussion and analysis (MD&A) includes information that will help you understand management’s perspective of our unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial statements and notes for the quarter ended March 31, 2023 (interim financial statements). The information is based on what we knew as of April 27, 2023, and updates our annual MD&A included in our 2022 annual report.

As you review this MD&A, we encourage you to read our interim financial statements as well as our audited consolidated financial statements and notes for the year ended December 31, 2022, and annual MD&A. You can find more information about Cameco, including our audited consolidated financial statements and our most recent annual information form (AIF), on our website at cameco.com, on SEDAR at sedar.com or on EDGAR at sec.gov. You should also read our annual information form before making an investment decision about our securities.

The financial information in this MD&A and in our financial statements and notes are prepared according to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), unless otherwise indicated.

Unless we have specified otherwise, all dollar amounts are in Canadian dollars.

Throughout this document, the terms we, us, our and Cameco mean Cameco Corporation and its subsidiaries unless otherwise indicated.


Caution about forward-looking information

Our MD&A includes statements and information about our expectations for the future. When we discuss our strategy, plans, future financial and operating performance, or other things that have not yet taken place, we are making statements considered to be forward-looking information or forward-looking statements under Canadian and United States (US) securities laws. We refer to them in this MD&A as forward-looking information.

Key things to understand about the forward-looking information in this MD&A:

 

 

It typically includes words and phrases about the future, such as: anticipate, believe, estimate, expect, plan, will, intend, goal, target, forecast, project, strategy and outlook (see examples below).

 

 

It represents our current views and can change significantly.

 

 

It is based on a number of material assumptions, including those we have listed starting on page 4, which may prove to be incorrect.

 

 

Actual results and events may be significantly different from what we currently expect, due to the risks associated with our business. We list a number of these material risks below. We recommend you also review our most recent annual information form and annual MD&A, which includes a discussion of other material risks that could cause actual results to differ significantly from our current expectations.

 

 

Forward-looking information is designed to help you understand management’s current views of our near-term and longer-term prospects, and it may not be appropriate for other purposes. We will not necessarily update this information unless we are required to by securities laws.

Examples of forward-looking information in this MD&A

 

  our expectations regarding 2023 and future uranium supply, demand, contracting, geopolitical issues, and the market including the discussion under the heading First quarter market update

 

  the discussion under the heading Our strategy, including the role of nuclear energy in the world’s shift to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy, our expectation that our strategy will allow us to increase long-term value, our intention to execute our strategy with an emphasis on safety, people and the environment, our belief that we have the right strategy to achieve our vision and will do so in a manner that reflects our values, our ability to address environmental, social and governance risks and opportunities, and our ambition to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions

 

  the discussion under the heading Strategy in action, including our ability to self-manage risk, the demand for nuclear fuel supplies, our expectations regarding uranium contracting and our contract portfolio, our plans for production at McArthur River/Key Lake, Cigar Lake, and the Port Hope UF6 conversion facility, our expectations regarding production levels at JV Inkai, and our expected financial capacity to execute our strategy and self-manage risk

 

  the discussion of our expectations relating to our acquisition of a 49% interest in Westinghouse Electric Company (Westinghouse), including the sources and uses of financing for the acquisition, the timeline of the acquisition, including the anticipated closing thereof, and creating a powerful platform for strategic growth
  the discussion of our expectations relating to our Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) transfer pricing dispute, including our expectations regarding receiving refunds and payment of disbursements from CRA, our confidence that the courts would reject any attempt by CRA to utilize the same or similar positions for other tax years currently in dispute, and our belief that CRA should return the full amount of cash and security that has been paid or otherwise secured by us

 

  the discussion under the heading Outlook for 2023, including expected care and maintenance costs for our tier-two assets, our cash balances and the generation of cash from operations, our outlook for our uranium average realized price, and other information in the table under the heading 2023 Financial Outlook, our revenue, adjusted net earnings, and cash flow sensitivity analysis, and our price sensitivity analysis for our uranium segment

 

  the discussion under the heading Liquidity and capital resources, including expected liquidity to meet 2023 obligations and our expectations for our uranium contract portfolio to provide a solid revenue stream

 

  our expectation that our operating and investment activities for the remainder of 2023 will not be constrained by the financial-related covenants in our unsecured revolving credit facility

 

  our intention to update the table under the heading Purchase commitments to reflect material changes to purchase commitments and prices

 

  our future plans and expectations for each of our uranium operating properties and fuel services operating sites, including production levels and our expected cash cost of production at McArthur River/Key Lake and Cigar Lake

 

  we have inventory, long-term purchase agreements and loan arrangements in place that mitigate the risk of delay of JV Inkai deliveries in 2023

 

  the expected care and maintenance costs for our US ISR Operations and Rabbit Lake for 2023
 

 

2  

    CAMECO CORPORATION


Material Risks

 

  actual sales volumes or market prices for any of our products or services are lower than we expect, or cost of sales is higher than we expect, for any reason, including changes in market prices, loss of market share to a competitor, trade restrictions, geopolitical issues, or the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

 

  we are adversely affected by changes in currency exchange rates, interest rates, royalty rates, tax rates or inflation

 

  our production costs are higher than planned, or necessary supplies are not available, or not available on commercially reasonable terms

 

  our strategies may change, be unsuccessful or have unanticipated consequences, or we may not be able to achieve anticipated operational flexibility and efficiency

 

  changing views of governments regarding the pursuit of carbon reduction strategies or our view may prove to be inaccurate on the role of nuclear power in pursuit of those strategies

 

  risks relating to the development and use of new technology or lack of appropriate technology needed to advance our ambition to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions

 

  our estimates and forecasts prove to be inaccurate, including production, purchases, deliveries, cash flow, revenue, costs, decommissioning, reclamation expenses, or the receipt of future dividends from JV Inkai

 

  the Westinghouse acquisition may be delayed or may not be completed on the terms in the acquisition agreement or at all

 

  consummation of the Westinghouse acquisition is subject to the satisfaction of closing conditions and regulatory approvals that may not be satisfied on a timely basis or at all

 

  that we may not realize expected benefits from the Westinghouse acquisition

 

  we are unable to enforce our legal rights under our agreements, permits or licences

 

  disruption or delay in the transportation of our products

 

  we are subject to litigation or arbitration that has an adverse outcome

 

  that we may not receive expected refunds and payments from CRA

 

  that the courts may accept the same, similar or different positions and arguments advanced by CRA to reach decisions that are adverse to us for other tax years

 

  the possibility of a materially different outcome in disputes with CRA for other tax years

 

  that CRA does not agree that the court rulings for the years that have been resolved in Cameco’s favour should apply to subsequent tax years

 

  that CRA will not return all or substantially all of the cash and security that has been paid or otherwise secured in a timely manner, or at all

 

  there are defects in, or challenges to title, to our properties

 

  our mineral reserve and resource estimates are not reliable, or there are unexpected or challenging geological, hydrological or mining conditions
  we are affected by environmental, safety and regulatory risks, including workforce health and safety or increased regulatory burdens or delays resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic or other causes

 

  necessary permits or approvals from government authorities cannot be obtained or maintained

 

  we are affected by political risks, including unrest in Kazakhstan, and geopolitical events, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine

 

  operations are disrupted due to problems with our own or our suppliers’ or customers’ facilities, the unavailability of reagents, equipment, operating parts and supplies critical to production, equipment failure, lack of tailings capacity, labour shortages, labour relations issues, strikes or lockouts, fires, underground floods, cave-ins, ground movements, tailings dam failures, transportation disruptions or accidents, aging infrastructure, or other development and operating risks

 

  we are affected by war, terrorism, sabotage, blockades, civil unrest, social or political activism, outbreak of illness (such as a pandemic like COVID-19), accident or a deterioration in political support for, or demand for, nuclear energy

 

  a major accident at a nuclear power plant

 

  we are impacted by changes in the regulation or public perception of the safety of nuclear power plants, which adversely affect the construction of new plants, the relicensing of existing plants and the demand for uranium

 

  government laws, regulations, policies or decisions that adversely affect us, including tax and trade laws and sanctions on nuclear fuel exports and imports

 

  our uranium suppliers or purchasers fail to fulfil their commitments

 

  our McArthur River development, mining or production plans are delayed or do not succeed for any reason, including due to labour disruption

 

  our Key Lake mill production plan is delayed or does not succeed for any reason, including due to labour disruption

 

  our Cigar Lake development, mining or production plans are delayed or do not succeed for any reason

 

  McClean Lake’s mill production plan is delayed or does not succeed for any reason

 

  JV Inkai’s development, mining or production plans are delayed or do not succeed for any reason or JV Inkai is unable to transport and deliver its production

 

  our production plan for our Port Hope UF6 conversion facility is delayed or does not succeed for any reason

 

  our expectations relating to care and maintenance costs prove to be inaccurate

 

  we are affected by natural phenomena, such as forest fires, floods and earthquakes as well as shifts in temperature, precipitation, and the impact of more frequent severe weather conditions on our operations as a result of climate change
 

 

    2023 FIRST QUARTER REPORT    

  3


Material Assumptions

 

  our expectations regarding sales and purchase volumes and prices for uranium and fuel services, cost of sales, trade restrictions, inflation, and that counterparties to our sales and purchase agreements will honour their commitments

 

  our expectations for the nuclear industry, including its growth profile, market conditions, geopolitical issues, and the demand for and supply of uranium

 

  the continuing pursuit of carbon reduction strategies by governments and the role of nuclear in the pursuit of those strategies

 

  the availability or development of technologies needed to achieve our net-zero greenhouse gas emission ambition

 

  the assumptions discussed under the heading 2023 Financial Outlook

 

  our expectations regarding spot prices and realized prices for uranium, and other factors discussed under the heading Price sensitivity analysis: uranium segment

 

  the Westinghouse acquisition is closed on the anticipated timeline and on the terms in the acquisition agreement

 

  market conditions and other factors upon which we based the Westinghouse acquisition and our related forecasts will be as expected

 

  the success of our plans and strategies relating to the Westinghouse acquisition

 

  that the construction of new nuclear power plants and the relicensing of existing nuclear power plants will not be adversely affected by changes in regulation or in the public perception of the safety of nuclear power plants

 

  our ability to continue to supply our products and services in the expected quantities and at the expected times

 

  our expected production levels for Cigar Lake, McArthur River/Key Lake, JV Inkai and our fuel services operating sites

 

  plans to transport our products succeed, including the shipment of our share of JV Inkai production to our Blind River refinery

 

  our ability to mitigate adverse consequences of delays in the shipment of our share of JV Inkai production to our Blind River refinery

 

  our cost expectations, including production costs, operating costs, and capital costs

 

  our expectations regarding tax payments, tax rates, royalty rates, currency exchange rates, interest rates and inflation

 

  our entitlement to and ability to receive expected refunds and payments from CRA

 

  in our dispute with CRA that courts will reach consistent decisions for other tax years that are based upon similar positions and arguments

 

  that CRA will not successfully advance different positions and arguments that may lead to different outcomes for other tax years

 

  our expectation that we will recover all or substantially all of the amounts paid or secured in respect of the CRA dispute to date

 

  our decommissioning and reclamation estimates, including the assumptions upon which they are based, are reliable

 

  our mineral reserve and resource estimates, and the assumptions upon which they are based, are reliable

 

  our understanding of the geological, hydrological and other conditions at our uranium properties

 

  our McArthur River and Cigar Lake development, mining and production plans succeed

 

  our Key Lake mill production plans succeeds

 

  the McClean Lake mill is able to process Cigar Lake ore as expected

 

  JV Inkai’s development, mining and production plans succeed, and that JV Inkai will be able to deliver its production

 

  the ability of JV Inkai to pay dividends

 

  our production plan for our Port Hope UF6 conversion facility succeeds

 

  that care and maintenance costs will be as expected

 

  our and our contractors’ ability to comply with current and future environmental, safety and other regulatory requirements and to obtain and maintain required regulatory approvals

 

  our operations are not significantly disrupted as a result of political instability, nationalization, terrorism, sabotage, blockades, civil unrest, breakdown, climate change, natural disasters, forest or other fires, outbreak of illness (such as a pandemic like COVID-19), governmental, political or regulatory actions, litigation or arbitration proceedings, cyber-attacks, the unavailability of reagents, equipment, operating parts and supplies critical to production, labour shortages, labour relations issues, strikes or lockouts, health and safety issues, underground floods, increased loadings into the environment, cave-ins, ground movements, tailings dam failure, lack of tailings capacity, improper air emission or treated water releases, transportation disruptions or accidents, aging infrastructure, or other development or operating risks
 

 

4  

    CAMECO CORPORATION


First quarter market update

Ongoing geopolitical events, the global focus on the climate crisis, and energy security concerns have created what we believe are transformative tailwinds for the nuclear power industry, from both a demand and supply perspective. In 2022, uranium prices reached levels not seen since 2011, driven by a tightened uranium market and growing security of supply concerns. The unrest in Kazakhstan at the outset of 2022 raised concerns about the more than 40% of global uranium supply that originates from Kazakh mines. However, it was the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late-February 2022 that was the most transformative event for our industry. The war continues to broadly impact our market in 2023 with parts of Ukraine, including the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, remaining under Russian control. We believe these developments have set in motion a geopolitical realignment in energy markets that is highlighting the increasingly important role for nuclear power not just in providing clean energy, but also providing secure and affordable energy. And, with the global nuclear industry reliant on Russian supplies for approximately 14% of uranium concentrates, 27% of conversion and 39% of enrichment, the realignment is also highlighting the security of supply risk associated with the growing primary supply gap and shrinking secondary supplies, while increasing the focus on origin of supply.

Amid the heightened supply risk caused by geopolitical developments, utilities continue to evaluate their nuclear fuel supply chains. In the first quarter of 2023, fuel buyers continued contracting to secure their long-term requirements for conversion and enrichment services. Additionally, customers are now returning their focus to the uranium required to feed into those services, as evidenced by higher prices across the fuel cycle and annual contracting activity that is getting closer to the rate required to replace what is consumed annually, which has not occurred in over a decade. Therefore, we expect there will be continued competition among utilities to secure long-term contracts for uranium products and services with proven producers who demonstrate strong environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance and from assets in geopolitically attractive jurisdictions, on terms that will ensure the availability of reliable supply to satisfy demand.

Despite the increase in prices across most segments of the fuel cycle, years of underinvestment in new production capacity has shifted risk from producers to utilities. In addition to the decisions many producers, including the lowest-cost producers, have made to preserve long-term value by leaving uranium in the ground or idling capacity, there have been several unplanned supply disruptions related to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated supply chain challenges on uranium mining and processing activities. Uranium is a highly trade-dependent commodity and certain sanctions on Russia, government restrictions, and restrictions on and cancellations of some cargo insurance coverage are creating transportation and further supply chain risks for fuel supplies coming out of Central Asia. Adding to security of supply concerns is the role of commercial and state-owned entities in the uranium market, and trade policies that highlight the disconnect between where uranium is produced and where it is consumed. Nearly 80% of primary production is in the hands of state-owned enterprises, over 70% comes from countries that consume little-to-no uranium and nearly 90% of consumption occurs in countries that have little-to-no primary production. Some of the more significant developments affecting supply in the quarter include:

 

 

Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) purchased about 2.4 million pounds U3O8 thus far in 2023, bringing total purchases since inception to over 43 million pounds U3O8. The challenging equity markets in recent months have contributed to SPUT shares often trading at a discount to net asset value, impacting its ability to raise funds to purchase uranium.

 

 

In the US, legislation has been proposed that would further restrict nuclear fuel imports from Russia. Both chambers of US Congress have introduced companion bills that seek to ban nuclear fuel imports beginning no later than 90 days after the bill’s enactment. However, the proposed House bill allows for a waiver process which authorizes imports equal to but not exceeding volumes stipulated in the Russia Suspension Agreement. These waivers would expire on January 1, 2028, and no new Russian imports would be permitted thereafter.

 

 

On March 17, Kazatomprom (KAP) announced 2022 production of 55.2 million pounds U3O8, a slight drop from 2021 attributed to the lagging impact of COVID-19 on wellfield development and supply chain challenges. For 2023, KAP expects production volumes of between 53.3 million and 55.9 million pounds U3O8, and it acknowledged significant increases in capital expenditures and cash costs are expected. In addition, KAP reaffirmed plans to ramp up production from 20% below to 10% below their Subsoil Use Contracts level in 2024, potentially bringing total Kazakh production to about 65 million pounds U3O8, although the company cautioned it may face challenges due to the state of global supply chains.

 

 

In March, Sweden’s coalition government voted to maintain the uranium moratorium, which bans uranium exploration and mining in Sweden.

 

    2023 FIRST QUARTER REPORT    

  5


According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, globally, there are currently 440 operable reactors and 56 reactors under construction. Many nations that have deployed nuclear power are appreciating its clean energy and energy security benefits, reaffirming their commitment and developing plans to support existing reactor units while reviewing and developing policies to encourage more nuclear capacity. Several non-nuclear countries have also emerged as candidates for new nuclear capacity. In the European Union (EU), specific nuclear energy projects have been identified for inclusion under its sustainable financing taxonomy and are therefore eligible for access to low-cost financing. In some countries where phase-out policies were previously in place, there have been policy reversals and potential reactor life extensions with public opinion polls showing growing support. With a number of reactor construction projects recently approved and many more planned, demand for uranium fuel continues to improve. Some of the more significant developments affecting demand in the quarter include:

 

 

On March 24, Kansai announced the restart of Takahama Unit 4. Additionally, the High Court in Hiroshima, Japan upheld a lower court’s decision to reject a call by residents to halt the operation of Shikoku’s Ikata Unit 3, which was restarted in 2022. Currently, 10 Japanese units have restarted with an additional six units having passed regulatory review.

 

 

In South Korea, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) has awarded Doosan Enerbility a contract to supply components needed for the construction of Units 3 & 4 at the Shin Hanul facility. If construction commences in 2024 as planned, KHNP expects to complete Shin-Hanul Unit 3 in 2032, followed by Unit 4 in 2033. Additionally, KHNP announced Unit 2 of the Kori nuclear power plant has been taken offline to obtain a new operating license and is expected to restart operation in June 2025.

 

 

At the end of the first quarter, the German environment minister announced that all its reactors would be phased out as planned and on April 15, the last three operating reactors were shut down.

 

 

In February, France presented a potential launch of a European Nuclear Alliance to support security of energy supply with 12 EU counterparts.

 

 

In Finland, Teollisuuden Voima Oyj announced Olkiluoto 3, a 1,600 MWe EPR, completed 10 days of uninterrupted test operation in March. Commercial operation commenced on April 16.

 

 

On March 21, Fortum and Rolls Royce announced their memorandum of understanding to evaluate development of small modular reactors (SMRs) in both Sweden and Finland, as part of Fortum’s two-year nuclear feasibility study that it launched in November 2022.

 

 

Polish utility Polskie Elektrownie Jadrowe (PEJ) signed a contract with Westinghouse for multiple AP1000 PWRs in February. The program will start with three reactors at the Lubiatowo-Kopalino site in northern Poland, and is expected to generate six to nine GWe using nuclear power.

 

 

In March, US President Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau affirmed their intent to promote enhanced collaboration on nuclear energy and technology between their two countries. The US Department of Energy and Natural Resources Canada followed the announcement with a joint statement stating their shared intention to diversify and strengthen the resilience of the global nuclear fuel supply chain in the face of ongoing uncertainty.

 

 

In April, five of the G7 Nations, including Canada, US, France, Japan, and the United Kingdom announced an alliance to develop shared supply chains for nuclear power. According to a joint statement, they have “identified potential areas of collaboration on nuclear fuels to support the stable supply of fuels for the operating reactor fleets of today, enable the development and deployment of fuels for the advanced reactors of tomorrow, and achieve reduced dependence on Russian supply chains.”

 

 

The Canadian Federal Budget delivered on March 29 included a series of investment tax credits to support the clean energy transition totaling nearly $83 billion over 10 years. Tax credits are now available for investments in a variety of nuclear projects, including large-scale nuclear, refurbishments, SMRs, manufacturing of nuclear energy equipment and processing of nuclear fuels.

 

 

On March 29, US microreactor developer Ultra Safe Nuclear Corp. (USNC) announced it signed an agreement with Polish fertilizer manufacturer Grupa Azoty Police and the West Pomeranian University of Technology to develop and construct a nuclear energy research facility based on USNC’s Micro-Modular Reactor (MMR) design.

 

 

In Egypt, Rosatom announced the first heavy and oversized equipment for El-Dabaa Unit 1 was delivered March 21 as preparations get underway for the construction of the first two of four Russian-built VVER 1200 reactors. Additionally, on March 30, Rosatom announced Egypt’s Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Authority (ENRRA) issued a construction license for El-Dabaa Unit 3.

 

6  

    CAMECO CORPORATION


 

In February, Uzbekistan state uranium miner, Navoiyuran, reported it would be exporting uranium oxide to India beginning in May to fuel the Kakrapar reactor. Three more domestically designed 700 MWe pressurized heavy water reactor units of a similar design are expected to come online in the next few years. The country is targeting an expansion of its nuclear capacity to 22.5 GWe by 2031, from about 6.8 GWe today.

 

 

In February, the California State Assembly introduced a bill that would authorize the development and construction of SMRs within the state.

 

 

On April 1, Southern Company announced Unit 3 at the Vogtle nuclear power plant had been successfully connected to the electrical grid, becoming the first Westinghouse AP1000 PWR in the US to do so. In March the company also announced the start of Hot Functional Testing for Vogtle Unit 4.

 

 

On March 29, the provincial government of Ontario launched a Clean Energy Credit (CEC) registry to boost competitiveness and attract jobs to the province. Proceeds from the sale of CECs held by the Independent Electricity System Operator and Ontario Power Generation (OPG) will be directed to the government’s New Future Clean Electricity Fund.

 

 

In March, GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GEH), Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), OPG and Synthos Green Energy (SGE) announced their agreement for technical cooperation to support the global deployment of GEH’s BWRX-300 SMR design. The first BWRX-300 BWR SMR is expected to be completed at OPG’s Darlington plant by the end of 2028.

 

 

In March, Bruce Power removed Unit 3 from service to begin its refurbishment campaign, referred to as its Major Component Replacement (MCR) outage. The refurbished unit is scheduled to come back online in 2026.

 

 

On April 4, Cameco and Bruce Power celebrated the extension of their long-term nuclear fuel supply arrangements, first announced in 2017, for an additional 10 years. The new deal extends the exclusive arrangements to 2040 and includes provisions for Cameco to supply 100% of Bruce Power’s uranium, conversion services, and fuel fabrication requirements, representing an estimated $2.8 billion in additional business between the companies. Cameco reported the volumes contemplated under this agreement in its 2022 contracting volumes.

 

 

Caution about forward-looking information relating to the nuclear industry

This discussion of our expectations for the nuclear industry, including its growth profile, uranium supply and demand, and reactor growth is forward-looking information that is based upon the assumptions and subject to the material risks discussed under the heading Caution about forward-looking information beginning on page 2.

Industry prices at quarter end

 

     MAR 31
2023
     DEC 31
2022
     SEP 30
2022
     JUN 30
2022
     MAR 31
2022
     DEC 31
2021
 

Uranium ($US/lb U3O8)1

                 

Average spot market price

     50.48        47.68        48.38        49.75        58.20        42.05  

Average long-term price

     53.00        52.00        51.00        51.50        49.00        42.75  

Fuel services ($US/kgU as UF6)1

                 

Average spot market price

                 

North America

     39.75        40.00        38.00        32.75        26.63        16.10  

Europe

     39.75        40.00        38.00        32.75        26.63        16.10  

Average long-term price

                 

North America

     27.88        27.25        26.75        26.25        22.50        18.00  

Europe

     27.88        27.50        27.00        26.50        22.50        18.00  

Note: the industry does not publish UO2 prices.

                 

 

1 

Average of prices reported by TradeTech and UxC LLC (UxC)

On the spot market, where purchases call for delivery within one year, the volume reported by UxC for the first quarter of 2023 was nearly 12 million pounds U3O8 equivalent, compared to 26 million pounds U3O8 equivalent contracted in the first quarter of 2022. As of March 31, 2023, the average reported spot price was $50.48 (US) per pound, an increase of $2.80 (US) per pound from the previous quarter.

 

    2023 FIRST QUARTER REPORT    

  7


Long-term contracts generally call for deliveries to begin more than two years after the contract is finalized, and use a number of pricing formulas, including base-escalated prices set at time of contracting and escalated over the term of the contract, and market-related prices, which reference spot and/or long-term indicators determined near the time of delivery. Long-term contracting reported by UxC for the first three months of 2023 totaled about 52 million pounds U3O8 equivalent, down from about 61 million pounds U3O8 equivalent reported over the same period in 2022. The average reported long-term price at the end of the quarter was $53.00 (US) per pound U3O8 equivalent, an increase of $1.00 (US) per pound from the previous quarter.

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the availability of conversion services in both the North American and European markets came under significant pressure, resulting in record-high prices in 2022. Prices have moderated slightly from the peak reached in 2022. At the end of the first quarter, the average reported spot price was $39.75 (US) per kilogram uranium (kgU) as UF6, down $0.25 (US) from the previous quarter. Long-term UF6 conversion prices finished the quarter at $27.88 (US) per kgU, up $0.63 (US) from the previous quarter.

 

8  

    CAMECO CORPORATION


Our strategy

We are a pure-play investment in the growing demand for nuclear energy. We are focused on providing nuclear fuel products and services across the fuel cycle to support the generation of clean, reliable, secure and affordable energy, and we are focused on taking advantage of the long-term growth we see coming in our industry. Our strategy is set within the context of what we believe is a transitioning market environment, where increasing populations, a growing focus on electrification and decarbonization, and concerns about energy security and affordability are expected to durably strengthen the long-term fundamentals for nuclear power and uranium supply. Nuclear energy must be a significant component of the world’s shift to a low-carbon, climate resilient economy. It is an option that can provide the necessary power in a reliable, safe and affordable manner, and in a way that will help avoid some of the worst consequences of climate change.

Our strategy is to capture full-cycle value by:

 

 

remaining disciplined in our contracting activity, building a balanced portfolio in accordance with our contracting framework;

 

 

profitably producing from our tier-one assets and aligning our production decisions in all segments of our business with our contract portfolio and customer needs;

 

 

being financially disciplined to allow us to execute on our strategy, take advantage of strategic opportunities and to self-manage risk, and

 

 

exploring other emerging and non-traditional opportunities within the fuel cycle that align with our commitment to responsibly and sustainably manage our business, contribute to the mitigation of global climate change, and help to provide energy security and affordability

We expect our strategy will allow us to increase long-term value, and we will execute it with an emphasis on safety, people and the environment.

Our vision – “Energizing a clean-air world” – recognizes that we have an important role to play in enabling the vast reductions in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions required to achieve a resilient net-zero carbon economy. We support climate action that is consistent with the ambitions of the Paris Agreement and the Canadian government’s commitment to the agreement, which seeks to limit global temperature rise to less than 2º Celsius, a target that climate scientists believe will require the world to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 or sooner. Our uranium and fuel services are used around the world in the generation of safe, carbon-free, affordable, base-load nuclear power.

We believe we have the right strategy to achieve our vision and we will do so in a manner that reflects our values. For over 30 years, we have been operating and delivering our products responsibly. Building on that strong foundation, we have set a new target to reduce our combined Scope 1 and Scope 2 GHG emissions by 30% by 2030, from our 2015 baseline as our first major milestone on the journey to achieve our ambition of being net zero. We remain committed to our efforts to transform our own, already low, greenhouse gas footprint in our ambition to reach net-zero emissions, and identifying and addressing the ESG risks and opportunities that we believe may have a significant impact on our ability to add long-term value for our stakeholders.

You can read more about our strategy in our 2022 annual MD&A and our approach to ESG in our 2021 ESG report.

 

    2023 FIRST QUARTER REPORT    

  9


Strategy in action

In the current environment, we believe the risk to uranium supply is greater than the risk to uranium demand and expect it will create a renewed focus on ensuring availability of long-term supply to fuel nuclear reactors. With the improvements in the market, the new long-term contracts we have put in place, and a pipeline of contracting discussions, we plan to produce 33 million pounds (20.3 million pounds our share) of uranium in 2023 and starting in 2024, 36 million pounds (22.4 million pounds our share). At Inkai, production will continue to follow the 20% reduction planned by KAP until the end of 2023. In addition to our uranium production plans, our Port Hope UF6 conversion facility is working to increase annual production to 12,000 tonnes by 2024, in order to satisfy our book of long-term business and demand for conversion services, at a time when conversion prices are at historic highs. We continue to have the ability to expand production from our existing assets, however some additional investment would be required. If we took advantage of all tier-one expansion opportunities, our annual share of tier-one uranium supply could be about 32 million pounds (including our share of production from McArthur River/Key Lake and Cigar Lake, and Inkai purchases). However, we will continue to responsibly manage our supply in accordance with our customers’ needs.

With the heightened supply risk caused by geopolitical uncertainty, utilities are evaluating their nuclear fuel supply chains. Our utility customers’ nuclear power plants continue to be part of the critical infrastructure needed to guarantee the availability of 24-hour electricity to run essential services. Our customers are going to need nuclear fuel and as a reliable, commercial supplier, with nuclear fuel assets in geopolitically stable jurisdictions, we are focused on working with our customers to secure long-term commitments that will underpin the long-term operation of our productive capacity, while helping de-risk their nuclear fuel supply chains and allowing them to continue to provide carbon-free baseload electricity.

We are also focused on adding new markets to our global commercial portfolio. We are successfully competing for business in countries seeking to enhance their energy security, while affirming their commitment to carbon-free nuclear power in achieving their climate goals.

In recent years, the volumes we have placed under long-term agreements has exceeded our annual delivery volumes, and we are therefore heavily committed under long-term contracts. We have about 215 million pounds of uranium and more than 70 million kgU of UF6 conversion under long-term contracts, with deliveries spanning more than a decade, and many of which, in our uranium segment, benefit from market-related pricing mechanisms. In addition, we have a large and growing pipeline of business under discussion, which we expect will help further build our long-term portfolio. However, the overall industry has not yet achieved replacement-rate contracting, so future uncovered requirements continue to grow. With our experience in every commercial cycle, we know that additional uranium and conversion demand must come to the market. Accordingly, we remain very selective in committing our unencumbered, in-ground uranium inventory and UF6 conversion capacity under long-term contracts to help maintain additional exposure to future improvements in the market. With a new contracting cycle now clearly underway, it is no longer necessary to highlight commercially sensitive contracting activity on a quarterly basis and we are therefore resuming our previous practice of only disclosing total contracted volumes with our annual results.

We continue to meet our sales commitments through a combination of production, inventory and purchases. Our share of production is expected to be 20.3 million pounds in 2023 and in the first quarter, we produced 4.5 million pounds of uranium (our share) and purchased 0.4 million pounds. The average unit cost of our purchases was $66.92 per pound ($49.50 per pound (US)). In April, a second shipment containing 1.3 million pounds, representing the majority of our share of Inkai’s remaining 2022 production, arrived at a Canadian port. See Financial results by segment – Uranium starting on page 23 for more information.

Thanks to the disciplined execution of our strategy, our balance sheet is strong. As of March 31, 2023, we had $2.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and short-term investments, and $1.0 billion in long-term debt. We also have a $1.0 billion undrawn credit facility.

 

10  

    CAMECO CORPORATION


On March 27, 2023, we announced that CRA issued revised reassessments for the 2007 through 2013 tax years that it indicated would result in a refund of approximately $300 million of the $780 million in cash and letters of credit being held by CRA. CRA advised that the refund would consist of $89 million in cash and the return of $211 million in letters of credit. However, following the receipt of cash in the amount of $86 million on April 12, 2023, CRA informed us that its previous calculation of $89 million was incorrect. We continue to expect the return of letters of credit in the amount of $211 million, which, if received and CRA’s calculations were correct, would bring the total refund to $297 million. The timing of receipt of the letters of credit is yet to be determined. See Transfer pricing dispute on page 15 for more information.

With the Supreme Court of Canada’s dismissal of CRA’s application for leave in 2021, the dispute for the 2003 through 2006 tax years is fully and finally resolved in our favour. Furthermore, we are confident the courts would reject any attempt by CRA to utilize the same or similar positions and arguments for the other tax years currently in dispute (2007 through 2014) and believe CRA should return the remaining $483 million in cash and letters of credit we have been required to pay or otherwise secure for those years. The timing of any further payments is uncertain.

We expect to maintain the financial strength and flexibility to continue to execute on our strategy, while continuing to navigate by our investment grade rating so we can self-manage risk, including from global macro-economic uncertainty and volatility, by being disciplined and planning production in conjunction with contracting success and market opportunities, and by taking advantage of value-added growth opportunities.

Financial results

This section of our MD&A discusses our performance, financial condition and outlook for the future.

In the second quarter of 2022, we, along with Orano Canada Inc., acquired Idemitsu Canada Resources Ltd.’s 7.875% participating interest in the Cigar Lake Joint Venture. Our ownership stake in Cigar Lake now stands at 54.547%, 4.522 percentage points higher than it was prior to the transaction. Effective May 19, 2022, we have reflected our share of production and financial results based on this new ownership stake.

Consolidated financial results

 

HIGHLIGHTS    THREE MONTHS
ENDED MARCH 31
        

($ MILLIONS EXCEPT WHERE INDICATED)

   2023      2022      CHANGE  

Revenue

     687        398        73

Gross profit

     167        50        >100

Net earnings attributable to equity holders

     119        40        >100

$ per common share (basic)

     0.27        0.10        >100

$ per common share (diluted)

     0.27        0.10        >100

Adjusted net earnings (non-IFRS, see page 13)

     115        17        >100

$ per common share (adjusted and diluted)

     0.27        0.04        >100

Cash provided by operations (after working capital changes)

     215        172        25

 

    2023 FIRST QUARTER REPORT    

  11


NET EARNINGS

The following table shows what contributed to the change in net earnings and adjusted net earnings (non-IFRS measure, see page 13) in the first quarter of 2023, compared to the first quarter of 2022.

 

          THREE MONTHS
ENDED MARCH 31
 

($ MILLIONS)

   IFRS      ADJUSTED  

Net earnings – 2022

     40        17  
     

 

 

    

 

 

 

Change in gross profit by segment

     

(We calculate gross profit by deducting from revenue the cost of products and services sold, and depreciation and amortization (D&A))

     

Uranium

  

Impact from sales volume changes

     16        16  
  

Higher realized prices ($US)

     24        24  
  

Foreign exchange impact on realized prices

     34        34  
  

Lower costs

     40        40  
     

 

 

    

 

 

 
  

Change – uranium

     114        114  
     

 

 

    

 

 

 

Fuel services

  

Impact from sales volume changes

     3        3  
  

Higher realized prices ($Cdn)

     8        8  
  

Higher costs

     (6      (6
     

 

 

    

 

 

 
  

Change – fuel services

     5        5  
     

 

 

    

 

 

 

Other changes

     

Higher administration expenditures

     (6      (6

Higher exploration expenditures

     (3      (3

Change in reclamation provisions

     (18      (1

Higher earnings from equity-accounted investee

     14        14  

Change in gains or losses on derivatives

     (8      (3

Change in foreign exchange gains or losses

     2        2  

Higher finance income

     26        26  

Change in income tax recovery or expense

     (37      (40

Other

     (10      (10
     

 

 

    

 

 

 

Net earnings – 2023

     119        115  
     

 

 

    

 

 

 

See Financial results by segment on page 23 for more detailed discussion.

 

12  

    CAMECO CORPORATION


ADJUSTED NET EARNINGS (NON-IFRS MEASURE)

Adjusted net earnings (ANE) is a measure that does not have a standardized meaning or a consistent basis of calculation under IFRS (non-IFRS measure). We use this measure as a meaningful way to compare our financial performance from period to period. Adjusted net earnings is our net earnings attributable to equity holders, adjusted to reflect the underlying financial performance for the reporting period. We believe that, in addition to conventional measures prepared in accordance with IFRS, certain investors use this information to evaluate our performance. Adjusted net earnings is one of the targets that we measure to form the basis for a portion of annual employee and executive compensation (see Measuring our results starting on page 36 of our 2022 annual report).

In calculating ANE we adjust for derivatives. We do not use hedge accounting under IFRS and, therefore, we are required to report gains and losses on all hedging activity, both for contracts that close in the period and those that remain outstanding at the end of the period. For the contracts that remain outstanding, we must treat them as though they were settled at the end of the reporting period (mark-to-market). However, we do not believe the gains and losses that we are required to report under IFRS appropriately reflect the intent of our hedging activities, so we make adjustments in calculating our ANE to better reflect the impact of our hedging program in the applicable reporting period. See Foreign exchange starting on page 17 for more information.

We also adjust for changes to our reclamation provisions that flow directly through earnings. Every quarter we are required to update the reclamation provisions for all operations based on new cash flow estimates, discount and inflation rates. This normally results in an adjustment to an asset retirement obligation asset in addition to the provision balance. When the assets of an operation have been written off due to an impairment, as is the case with our Rabbit Lake and US ISR operations, the adjustment is recorded directly to the statement of earnings as “other operating expense (income)”. See note 9 of our interim financial statements for more information. This amount has been excluded from our ANE measure.

The bargain purchase gain that was recognized in the second quarter of 2022 when we acquired our pro-rata share of Idemitsu Canada Resources Ltd.’s 7.875% participating interest in the Cigar Lake Joint Venture has also been removed in calculating ANE since it is non-cash, non-operating and outside of the normal course of our business. The gain was recorded in the statement of earnings as part of “other income (expense)”.

Adjusted net earnings is a non-IFRS financial measure and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for financial information prepared according to accounting standards. Other companies may calculate this measure differently, so you may not be able to make a direct comparison to similar measures presented by other companies.

The following table reconciles adjusted net earnings with net earnings for the first quarter of 2023 and compares it to the same period in 2022.

 

     THREE MONTHS
ENDED MARCH 31
 

($ MILLIONS)

   2023      2022  

Net earnings attributable to equity holders

     119        40  
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Adjustments

     

Adjustments on derivatives

     (6      (11

Adjustments to other operating income

     (2      (19

Income taxes on adjustments

     4        7  
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Adjusted net earnings

     115        17  
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

    2023 FIRST QUARTER REPORT    

  13


Quarterly trends

 

HIGHLIGHTS    2023      2022      2021  

($ MILLIONS EXCEPT PER SHARE AMOUNTS)

   Q1      Q4     Q3     Q2      Q1      Q4      Q3     Q2  

Revenue

     687        524       389       558        398        465        361       359  

Net earnings (losses) attributable to equity holders

     119        (15     (20     84        40        11        (72     (37

$ per common share (basic)

     0.27        (0.04     (0.05     0.21        0.10        0.03        (0.18     (0.09

$ per common share (diluted)

     0.27        (0.04     (0.05     0.21        0.10        0.03        (0.18     (0.09

Adjusted net earnings (losses) (non-IFRS, see page 13)

     115        36       10       72        17        23        (54     (38

$ per common share (adjusted and diluted)

     0.27        0.09       0.03       0.18        0.04        0.06        (0.14     (0.10

Cash provided by (used in) operations (after working capital changes

     215        77       (47     102        172        59        203       152  

Key things to note:

 

 

the timing of customer requirements, which tend to vary from quarter to quarter, drives revenue in the uranium and fuel services segments

 

 

net earnings vary from quarter to quarter due to variability in the timing of customer requirements and product purchases, and do not trend directly with revenue due to unusual items and transactions that occur from time to time. We use adjusted net earnings, a non-IFRS measure, as a more meaningful way to compare our results from period to period (see page 13 for more information).

 

 

cash from operations tends to fluctuate as a result of the timing of customer requirements and product purchases in our uranium and fuel services segments

 

 

quarterly results are not necessarily a good indication of annual results due to the variability in customer requirements and product purchases noted above.

The following table compares the net earnings and adjusted net earnings for the first quarter to the previous seven quarters.

 

HIGHLIGHTS    2023     2022     2021  

($ MILLIONS EXCEPT PER SHARE AMOUNTS)

   Q1     Q4     Q3     Q2     Q1     Q4     Q3     Q2  

Net earnings (losses) attributable to equity holders

     119       (15     (20     84       40       11       (72     (37
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Adjustments

                

Adjustments on derivatives

     (6     (19     75       31       (11     5       26       (9

Adjustments to other operating expense (income)

     (2     88       (24     (19     (19     10       (2     6  

Adjustment to other income

     —         —         —         (23     —         —         —         —    

Income taxes on adjustments

     4       (18     (21     (1     7       (3     (6     2  
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Adjusted net earnings (losses) (non-IFRS, see page 13)

     115       36       10       72       17       23       (54     (38
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Corporate expenses

ADMINISTRATION

 

     THREE MONTHS
ENDED MARCH 31
        

($ MILLIONS)

   2023      2022      CHANGE  

Direct administration

     46        33        39

Stock-based compensation

     18        21        (14 )% 

Reversal (recovery) of fees related to CRA dispute

     —          4        (100 )% 
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total administration

     64        58        10
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Direct administration costs were $13 million higher at $46 million for the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period last year largely due to costs related to digital initiatives. Stock-based compensation expenses were $3 million lower than the first quarter of 2022 due to the decrease in our share price compared to last year. See note 17 to the financial statements.

 

14  

    CAMECO CORPORATION


EXPLORATION AND RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

In the first quarter, uranium exploration expenses were $6 million, an increase of $3 million from the first quarter of 2022.

We also had research and development expenditures of $4 million which were mainly related to our investment in Global Laser Enrichment, LLC, compared to $3 million in 2022.

INCOME TAXES

We recorded an income tax expense of $36 million in the first quarter of 2023, compared to a recovery of $1 million in the first quarter of 2022.

In 2023, we recorded earnings of $150 million in Canada compared to earnings of $32 million in 2022, while we recorded earnings of $5 million in foreign jurisdictions compared to earnings of $7 million last year.

 

     THREE MONTHS
ENDED MARCH 31
 

($ MILLIONS)

   2023      2022  

Net earnings before income taxes

     

Canada

     150        32  

Foreign

     5        7  
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total net earnings before income taxes

     155        39  
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Income tax expense (recovery)

     

Canada

     33        (3

Foreign

     3        2  
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total income tax expense (recovery)

     36        (1
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

TRANSFER PRICING DISPUTE

Background

Since 2008, Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) has disputed our marketing and trading structure and the related transfer pricing methodology we used for certain intercompany uranium sale and purchase agreements.

For the years 2003 to 2014, CRA shifted Cameco Europe Limited’s income (as recalculated by CRA) back to Canada and applied statutory tax rates, interest and instalment penalties, and, from 2007 to 2011, transfer pricing penalties. In addition, for 2014 to 2016, CRA has advanced an alternate reassessing position, see Reassessments, remittances and next steps below for more information.

In September 2018, the Tax Court of Canada (Tax Court) ruled that our marketing and trading structure involving foreign subsidiaries, as well as the related transfer pricing methodology used for certain intercompany uranium sales and purchasing agreements, were in full compliance with Canadian law for the tax years in question (2003, 2005 and 2006). On June 26, 2020, the Federal Court of Appeal (Court of Appeal) upheld the Tax Court’s decision.

On February 18, 2021, the Supreme Court of Canada (Supreme Court) dismissed CRA’s application for leave to appeal the June 26, 2020, decision of the Court of Appeal. The dismissal means that the dispute for the 2003, 2005 and 2006 tax years is fully and finally resolved in our favour. Although not technically binding, there is nothing in the reasoning of the lower court decisions that should result in a different outcome for the 2007 through 2014 tax years, which were reassessed on the same basis.

Refund and cost award

The Minister of National Revenue issued new reassessments for the 2003 through 2006 tax years in accordance with the decision and in July 2021, refunded the tax paid for those years. Pursuant to a cost award from the courts, we are expecting a payment of approximately $13 million for disbursements which is in addition to the $10 million we received from CRA in April 2021 as reimbursement for legal fees.

 

    2023 FIRST QUARTER REPORT    

  15


Reassessments, remittances and next steps

The Canadian income tax rules include provisions that generally require larger companies like us to remit or otherwise secure 50% of the cash tax plus related interest and penalties at the time of reassessment. Following the Supreme Court’s dismissal of CRA’s application for leave to appeal, we wrote to CRA requesting reversal of CRA’s transfer pricing adjustments for 2007 through 2013 and the return of the $780 million in cash and letters of credit we have paid or provided for those years. Given the strength of the court decisions received, our request was made on the basis that the Tax Court would reject any attempt by CRA to defend its reassessments for the 2007 through 2013 tax years applying the same or similar positions already denied for previous years.

On March 27, 2023, we announced that CRA issued revised reassessments for the 2007 through 2013 tax years that it indicated would result in a refund of approximately $300 million of the $780 million in cash and letters of credit being held by CRA. CRA advised that the refund would consist of $89 million in cash and the return of $211 million in letters of credit. However, following the receipt of cash in the amount of $86 million on April 12, 2023, CRA informed us that its previous calculation of $89 million was incorrect. We continue to expect the return of letters of credit in the amount of $211 million, which, if received and CRA’s calculations were correct, would bring the total refund to $297 million. The timing of receipt of the letters of credit is yet to be determined.

The series of court decisions that were completely and unequivocally in our favour for the 2003, 2005 and 2006 tax years, determined that the income earned by our foreign subsidiary from the sale of non-Canadian produced uranium was not taxable in Canada. In accordance with these decisions, CRA issued reassessments reducing the proposed transfer pricing adjustment from $5.12 billion to $3.25 billion, resulting in a reduction of $1.87 billion in income taxable in Canada compared to the previous reassessments issued to us by CRA for the 2007 through 2013 tax years.

Notwithstanding the pending refund of the security of approximately $211 million due to the reduced reassessment amounts for 2007 through 2013, our broader tax dispute with CRA remains ongoing. CRA continues to hold $483 million ($209 million in cash and $274 million in letters of credit) that Cameco has remitted or secured to date.

The remaining transfer pricing adjustment of $3.25 billion for the 2007 to 2013 tax years relates to the sale of Canadian-produced uranium by our foreign subsidiary. Cameco maintains that the clear and decisive court decisions described above apply, and that CRA should fully reverse the remaining transfer pricing adjustments for these years and return the cash and security being held.

In October 2021, due to a lack of significant progress on our points of contention, we filed a notice of appeal with the Tax Court for the years 2007 through 2013. We have asked the Tax Court to order the complete reversal of CRA’s transfer pricing adjustment for those years and the return of the remainder of our cash and letters of credit being held, with costs.

In 2020, CRA advanced an alternate reassessing position for the 2014 tax year in the event the basis for its original reassessment, noted above, is unsuccessful. Subsequent to this, in 2021, we received a reassessment for the 2015 tax year and in late 2022, we received a reassessment for the 2016 tax year, both using this alternative reassessing position. The new basis of reassessment is inconsistent with the methodology CRA has pursued for prior years and we are disputing it separately. Our view is that this alternate methodology will not result in a materially different outcome from our 2014 to 2016 filing positions. On October 12, 2022, we filed an appeal with the Tax Court for the years 2014 and 2015, and recently filed a notice of objection for 2016. At the time of these reassessments, CRA did not require additional security for the tax debts they considered owing for 2014 and 2015. We have requested the same treatment with respect to the 2016 reassessment.

We will not be in a position to determine the definitive outcome of this dispute for any tax year other than 2003 through 2006 until such time as all reassessments have been issued advancing CRA’s arguments and final resolution is reached for that tax year. CRA may also advance alternative reassessment methodologies for years other than 2003 through 2006, such as the alternative reassessing position advanced for 2014 through 2016.

 

 

Caution about forward-looking information relating to our CRA tax dispute

This discussion of our expectations relating to our tax dispute with CRA and future tax reassessments by CRA is forward-looking information that is based upon the assumptions and subject to the material risks discussed under the heading Caution about forward-looking information beginning on page 2.

 

16  

    CAMECO CORPORATION


FOREIGN EXCHANGE

The exchange rate between the Canadian dollar and US dollar affects the financial results of our uranium and fuel services segments.

We sell the majority of our uranium and fuel services products under long-term sales contracts, which are routinely denominated in US dollars. Our product purchases are denominated in US dollars, while our production costs are largely denominated in Canadian dollars. To provide cash flow predictability, we hedge a portion of our net US/Cdn exposure (e.g. total US dollar sales less US dollar expenditures and product purchases) to manage shorter term exchange rate volatility. Our results are therefore affected by the movements in the exchange rate on our hedge portfolio, and on the unhedged portion of our net exposure.

Impact of hedging on IFRS earnings

We do not use hedge accounting under IFRS and we are therefore required to report gains and losses on economic hedging activity, both for contracts that close in the period and those that remain outstanding at the end of the period. For the contracts that remain outstanding, we must treat them as though they were settled at the end of the reporting period (mark-to-market).

However, we do not believe the gains and losses that we are required to report under IFRS appropriately reflect the intent of our hedging activities, so we make adjustments in calculating our ANE to better reflect the benefits of our hedging program in the applicable reporting period.

Impact of hedging on ANE

We designate contracts for use in particular periods, based on our expected net exposure in that period. Hedge contracts are layered in over time based on this expected net exposure. The result is that our current hedge portfolio is made up of a number of contracts which are currently designated to net exposures we expect in 2023 and future years, and we will recognize the gains and losses in ANE in those periods.

For the purposes of ANE, gains and losses on derivatives are reported based on the difference between the effective hedge rate of the contracts designated for use in the particular period and the exchange rate at the time of settlement. This results in an adjustment to current period IFRS earnings to effectively remove reported gains and losses on derivatives that arise from contracts put in place for use in future periods. The effective hedge rate will lag the market in periods of rapid currency movement. See Non-IFRS measures on page 13.

For more information, see our 2022 annual MD&A.

At March 31, 2023:

 

 

The value of the US dollar relative to the Canadian dollar was $1.00 (US) for $1.35 (Cdn), down from $1.00 (US) for $1.36 (Cdn) at December 31, 2022. The exchange rate averaged $1.00 (US) for $1.35 (Cdn) over the quarter.

 

 

The mark-to-market position on all foreign exchange contracts was a $43 million loss compared to a $48 million loss at December 31, 2022.

For information on the impact of foreign exchange on our intercompany balances, see note 18 to the financial statements.

 

    2023 FIRST QUARTER REPORT    

  17


Outlook for 2023

Our outlook for 2023 is beginning to reflect the transition of our cost structure back to a tier-one run rate, as we plan our production to satisfy the growing long-term commitments under our contract portfolio. With our plan to produce 18 million pounds per year (100% basis) at Cigar Lake, 18 million pounds per year (100% basis) at McArthur River/Key Lake beginning in 2024, and increase UF6 production at our Port Hope conversion facility, we expect to see continued improvement in our financial performance.

From a cash perspective, we expect to generate strong cash flows. The amount of cash generated will be dependent on the timing and volume of production and the timing and magnitude of our purchasing activity. Therefore, our cash balances may fluctuate throughout the year.

As in prior years, we will incur care and maintenance costs for the ongoing curtailment of our tier-two assets, which are expected to be between $50 million and $60 million.

As a result of additional sale volumes within the guided range and the impact of the weakening Canadian dollar, we have updated our outlook for the anticipated uranium average realized price to $61.70 per pound (previously $58.90 per pound), expected uranium revenue to be between $1,830 million and $1,920 million (previously $1,730 million to $1,820 million), and expected consolidated revenue to between $2,220 million and $2,370 million (previously $2,120 million to $2,270 million). The average unit cost of sales in our uranium segment is now expected to be between $47.00 and $48.00 per pound (previously $46.00 to $47.00 per pound) due to our purchasing activity and the impact of the weakening Canadian dollar.

2023 FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

 

     CONSOLIDATED      URANIUM      FUEL SERVICES  

Production (owned and operated properties)

     —          20.3 million lbs        13 to 14 million kgU  

Purchases

     —          9 to 11 million lbs        —    

Sales/delivery volume

     —          29 to 31 million lbs        11.5 to 12.5 million kgU  

Revenue

   $ 2,220-2,370 million      $ 1,830-1,920 million      $ 390-420 million  

Average realized price

     —        $ 61.70/lb        —    

Average unit cost of sales (including D&A)

     —        $ 47.00-48.00/lb 1     $ 23.50-24.50/kgU 2 

Direct administration costs

   $ 160-170 million        —          —    

Exploration costs

     —        $ 18 million        —    

Capital expenditures

   $ 150-175 million        —          —    

 

1 

Uranium average unit cost of sales is calculated as the cash and non-cash costs of the product sold, care and maintenance and selling costs, divided by the volume of uranium concentrates sold.

2 

Fuel services average unit cost of sales is calculated as the cash and non-cash costs of the product sold, transportation and weighing and sampling costs, divided by the volume of products sold.

We do not provide an outlook for the items in the table that are marked with a dash.

The following assumptions were used to prepare the outlook in the table above:

 

 

Production – we achieve 20.3 million pounds of production (our share) in our uranium segment. If we do not achieve 20.3 million pounds, the outlook for the uranium segment may change.

 

 

Purchases – are based on the volumes we currently have commitments to acquire under contract in 2023, including our JV Inkai purchases, and it includes additional volumes we are required to purchase in order to meet the sales/delivery commitments we have under contract in 2023 and maintain a working inventory. It does not include any purchases that we may make as a result of the impact of any delays or disruptions to production for any reason, including disruptions caused by supply chain or transportation, or other issues.

 

 

Our 2023 outlook for sales/delivery volume and revenue does not include sales between our uranium and fuel services segments.

 

18  

    CAMECO CORPORATION


 

Sales/delivery volume is based on the volumes already delivered this year and the remaining commitments we have to deliver under contract in 2023.

 

 

Uranium revenue and average realized price are based on a uranium spot price of $50.35 (US) per pound (the UxC spot price as of March 27, 2023), a long-term price indicator of $53.00 (US) per pound (the UxC long-term indicator on March 27, 2023) and an exchange rate of $1.00 (US) for $1.33 (Cdn).

 

 

Uranium average unit cost of sales (including D&A) is based on the expected unit cost of sales for produced material, the planned purchases noted in the outlook at an anticipated average purchase price of about $62.40 (Cdn) per pound and includes care and maintenance costs of between $50 million and $60 million. We expect overall unit cost of sales could vary if there are changes in production and purchase volumes or the mix between spot and long-term purchases, uranium spot prices, and/or care and maintenance costs in 2023.

 

 

Direct administration costs do not include stock-based compensation expenses or fees related to the CRA dispute. See page 14 for more information.

Our 2023 financial outlook is presented on the basis of equity accounting for our minority ownership interest in JV Inkai. Under equity accounting, our share of the profits earned by JV Inkai on the sale of its production will be included in “income from equity-accounted investees” on our consolidated statement of earnings. Our share of production will be purchased at a discount to the spot price and included at this value in inventory. In addition, JV Inkai capital is not included in our outlook for capital expenditures.

For more information on how changes in the exchange rate or uranium prices can impact our outlook see Revenue, adjusted net earnings, and cash flow sensitivity analysis below, and Foreign exchange on page 17.

REVENUE, ADJUSTED NET EARNINGS, AND CASH FLOW SENSITIVIY ANALYSIS

 

          IMPACT ON:  

FOR 2023 ($ MILLIONS)

   CHANGE    REVENUE      ANE      CASH FLOW  

Uranium spot and term price1

   $5(US)/lb increase      44        14        (6
   $5(US)/lb decrease      (54      (22      (4

Value of Canadian dollar vs US dollar

   One cent decrease in CAD      11        11        4  
   One cent increase in CAD      (11      (11      (4

 

1

Assuming change in both UxC spot price ($50.35 (US) per pound on March 27, 2023) and the UxC long-term price indicator ($53.00 (US) per pound on March 27, 2023)

We have sensitivity to the uranium price through both our sales and purchase commitments. However, our sales commitments are less sensitive to an increase in the uranium price than a decrease while our purchase commitments are equally sensitive to an increase or decrease. The overall impact on cash flow is expected to be very small.

PRICE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: URANIUM SEGMENT

As discussed under Long-term contracting on page 26 of our 2022 annual MD&A, our average realized price is based on pricing terms established in our portfolio of long-term contracts, which includes a mix of base-escalated and market-related contracts that are layered in over time. Each confidential contract is bilaterally negotiated with the customer and delivery generally does not begin until two years or more after signing.

 

 

Base-escalated contracts will reflect market conditions and pricing at the time each contract was finalized, with escalation factors applied based on when the material is delivered.

 

 

Market-related contracts reference a market price that can be set several months prior to delivery, subject to specific terms unique to each contract, such as floors and ceilings set relative to market pricing at time of negotiation and typically escalated to time of delivery.

As a result of these contracting dynamics, changes to our average realized price will generally lag changes in market prices in both rising and falling price conditions. The magnitude and direction of the deviation can vary based on the degree of market price volatility between the time the contract price is set, and the time the product is delivered.

To help understand how the pricing under our current portfolio of commitments is expected to react at various spot prices at March 31, 2023, we have constructed the table that follows.

 

    2023 FIRST QUARTER REPORT    

  19


The table is based on the volumes and pricing terms under the long-term commitments in our contract portfolio that have been finalized as at March 31, 2023. The table does not include volumes and pricing terms in contracts under negotiation or those that have been accepted but are still subject to contract finalization. Based on the terms and volumes under contracts that have been finalized, the table is designed to indicate how our average realized price would react under various spot price assumptions at a point in time. In other words, the prices shown in the table would only be realized if the contract portfolio remained exactly as it was on March 31, 2023, using the following assumptions:

 

 

The uranium price remains fixed at a given spot level for each annual period shown

 

 

Deliveries based on commitments under finalized contracts include best estimates of the expected deliveries and flexibility under contract terms

 

 

To reflect escalation mechanisms contained in existing contracts, the long-term US inflation rate of 2% is used, for modeling purposes only

It is important to note that the table is not a forecast of prices we expect to receive. The prices we actually realize will be different from the prices shown in the table. We intend to update this table each quarter in our MD&A to reflect deliveries made and changes to our contract portfolio. As a result, we expect the table to change from quarter to quarter.

Expected realized uranium price sensitivity under various spot price assumptions at March 31, 2023

(rounded to the nearest $1.00)

 

SPOT PRICES

($US/lb U3O8)

   $20      $40      $60      $80      $100      $120      $140  

2023

     39        43        48        51        53        55        56  

2024

     34        41        50        55        58        59        60  

2025

     37        43        53        61        64        66        68  

2026

     39        44        55        65        69        72        75  

2027

     40        44        56        67        72        75        78  

As of March 31, 2023, we had commitments requiring delivery of an average of 26 million pounds per year from 2023 through 2027, with commitment levels in 2023 through 2025 higher than the average and in 2026 and 2027 lower than the average. As the market improves, we expect to continue to layer in volumes capturing greater upside using market-related pricing mechanisms.

Liquidity and capital resources

Our financial objective is to ensure we have the cash and debt capacity to fund our operating activities, investments and other financial obligations in order to execute our strategy and to allow us to self-manage risk. We have a number of alternatives to fund future capital requirements, including using our operating cash flow, drawing on our existing credit facilities, entering new credit facilities, and raising additional capital through debt or equity financings. We are always considering our financing options so we can take advantage of favourable market conditions when they arise. In addition, due to the deliberate cost reduction measures we have implemented, we have continued to have positive cash from operations, which has added to our cash balance. With the net proceeds from the October 2022 share issuance, which are expected to help finance the proposed acquisition of Westinghouse we had significant cash balances at the end of the first quarter.

As of March 31, 2023, we had cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments of $2.5 billion, while our total debt amounted to $1.0 billion. In addition, on April 12, 2023, we received a cash refund of $86 million related to the receipt of revised reassessments from CRA for the 2007 through 2013 tax years and on April 26, 2023, we received a dividend of $79 million (US) from JV Inkai. Our cash balances and investments are held in government securities or with banks that are party to our lending facilities. We have a risk management policy that we follow to manage our exposure to banking counterparties, which limits amount and tenor of cash or investments based on counterparty credit rating. Our investment decisions prioritize security and liquidity and consider concentration amongst our banking partners. The majority of our cash balances and short-term investments are with Schedule I Canadian banks.

 

20  

    CAMECO CORPORATION


As announced on October 11, 2022, we have entered into a strategic partnership with Brookfield Renewable and its institutional partners to acquire Westinghouse. Permanent financing is expected to be a mix of capital sources (cash, debt and equity), designed to preserve the company’s balance sheet and ratings strength while maintaining our liquidity. Please see Liquidity and capital resources starting on page 50 of our annual MD&A for more information.

We expect our cash balances, operating cash flows, and the credit facilities put in place to support the close of the Westinghouse transaction, to meet our 2023 capital requirements. Depending on timing, we may have more or less cash than expected at closing and could temporarily draw on our revolving credit facility for short-term working capital purposes.

We have large, creditworthy customers that continue to need our nuclear fuel products and services even during weak economic conditions, and we expect the contract portfolio we have built will continue to provide a solid revenue stream. In our uranium segment, from 2023 through 2027, we have commitments to deliver an average of 26 million pounds per year, with commitment levels in 2023 through 2025 higher than the average and in 2026 and 2027, lower than the average.

We expect increased production at McArthur River/Key Lake will be positive for cash flow. It will allow us to source more of our committed sales from lower-cost produced pounds and we will no longer be required to expense operational readiness costs directly to cost of sales. However, cash flow from operations for 2023 will be dependent on the timing and volume of production and the timing and magnitude of our purchasing activity.

With the Supreme Court’s dismissal of CRA’s application for leave, the dispute of the 2003 through 2006 tax years are fully and finally resolved in our favour. Furthermore, we are confident the courts would reject any attempt by CRA to utilize the same or similar positions and arguments for the other tax years currently in dispute (2007 through 2014) and believe CRA should return the remaining $483 million in cash and letters of credit we have been required to pay or otherwise secure. However, timing of any further payments is uncertain. See page 15 for more information.

CASH FROM/USED IN OPERATIONS

Cash provided by operations was $43 million higher this quarter than in the first quarter of 2022 due to stronger earnings which were partially offset by an increase in working capital requirements, which required $96 million more in 2023 than in 2022.

FINANCING ACTIVITIES

We use debt to provide additional liquidity. We have sufficient borrowing capacity with unsecured lines of credit totalling about $2.8 billion at March 31, 2023, unchanged from December 31, 2022. At March 31, 2023, we had approximately $1.6 billion outstanding in financial assurances, unchanged from December 31, 2022.

At March 31, 2023, we had no short-term debt outstanding on our $1.0 billion unsecured revolving credit facility, unchanged from December 31, 2022. This facility matures October 1, 2026.

Long-term contractual obligations

Since December 31, 2022, there have been no material changes to our long-term contractual obligations. Please see our 2022 annual MD&A for more information.

Debt covenants

We are bound by certain covenants in our unsecured revolving credit facility. The financially related covenants place restrictions on total debt, including guarantees. As at March 31, 2023, we met these financial covenants and do not expect our operating and investment activities for the remainder of 2023 to be constrained by them.

SHARES AND STOCK OPTIONS OUTSTANDING

At April 25, 2023, we had:

 

 

433,032,187 common shares and one Class B share outstanding

 

 

2,539,854 stock options outstanding, with exercise prices ranging from $11.32 to $16.38

 

    2023 FIRST QUARTER REPORT    

  21


OFF-BALANCE SHEET ARRANGEMENTS

We had three kinds of off-balance sheet arrangements at March 31, 2023:

 

 

purchase commitments

 

 

financial assurances

 

 

other arrangements

Purchase commitments

We make purchases under long-term contracts where it is beneficial for us to do so and in order to support our long-term contract portfolio. The following table is based on our purchase commitments in our uranium and fuel services segments at March 31, 2023,2 but does not include purchases of our share of Inkai production. These commitments include a mix of fixed-price and market-related contracts. Actual payments will be different as a result of changes to our purchase commitments and, in the case of contracts with market-related pricing, the market prices in effect at the time of delivery. We will update this table as required in our MD&A to reflect material changes to our purchase commitments and changes in the prices used to estimate our commitments under market-related contracts.

 

            2024 AND      2026 AND      2028 AND         

MARCH 31 ($ MILLIONS)

   2023      2025      2027      BEYOND      TOTAL  

Purchase commitments1,2

     264        100        158        17        539  

 

1 

Denominated in US dollars and Japanese yen, converted from US dollars to Canadian dollars at the rate of 1.33 and from Japanese yen to Canadian dollars at the rate of $0.01.

2 

These amounts have been adjusted for any additional purchase commitments that we have entered into since March 31, 2023, but does not include deliveries taken under contract since March 31, 2023.

We have commitments of $539 million (Cdn) for the following:

 

 

approximately 9.6 million pounds of U3O8 equivalent from 2023 to 2028

 

 

approximately 0.4 million kgU as UF6 in conversion services from 2023 to 2024

 

 

about 0.6 million Separative Work Units (SWU) of enrichment services to meet existing forward sales commitments under agreements with a non-Western supplier

The suppliers do not have the right to terminate agreements other than pursuant to customary events of default provisions.

Financial assurances

At March 31, 2023, our financial assurances totaled $1.6 billion, unchanged from December 31, 2022. We are expecting the return of letters of credit in the amount of $211 million from CRA as a result of revised reassessments for the 2007 through 2013 tax years received in March. See Transfer pricing dispute on page 15.

Other arrangement

We have arranged for standby product loan facilities with various counterparties. The arrangements allow us to borrow up to 2.0 million kgU of UF6 conversion services and 2.8 million pounds of U3O8 over the period 2020 to 2026 with repayment in kind up to December 31, 2026. Under the loan facilities, standby fees of up to 1% are payable based on the market value of the facilities and interest is payable on the market value of any amounts drawn at rates ranging from 0.5% to 2.0%. At March 31, 2023, we have 1.8 million kgU of UF6 conversion services and 2.1 million pounds of U3O8 drawn on the loans.

BALANCE SHEET

 

($ MILLIONS)

   MAR 31, 2023      DEC 31, 2022      CHANGE  

Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments

     2,474        2,282        8

Total debt

     997        997        —    

Inventory

     484        665        (27 )% 

Total cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at March 31, 2023 were $2.5 billion, or 8% higher than at December 31, 2022, due to strong earnings as well as $27 million of interest received during the quarter. Net debt at March 31, 2023, was negative $1.5 billion.

Following quarter end, on April 26, we received a dividend payment from JV Inkai totaling $79 million (US). JV Inkai distributes excess cash, net of working capital requirements, to the partners as dividends.

 

22  

    CAMECO CORPORATION


Total product inventories are $484 million compared to $665 million at the end of 2022. Inventories decreased due to sales being higher than production and purchases in the first three months of the year. The average cost for uranium has decreased to $42.45 per pound compared to $43.45 per pound at December 31, 2022. As of March 31, 2023, we held an inventory of 8.1 million pounds of U3O8 equivalent (excluding broken ore) (December 31, 2022 - 12.4 million pounds). Inventory varies from quarter to quarter depending on the timing of production, purchases and sales deliveries in the year.

Financial results by segment

Uranium

 

            THREE MONTHS         
            ENDED MARCH 31         

HIGHLIGHTS

          2023      2022      CHANGE  

Production volume (million lbs)

        4.5        1.9        137

Sales volume (million lbs)

        9.7        5.9        64

Average spot price

   ($ US/lb      50.68        50.01        1

Average long-term price

   ($ US/lb      52.83        45.25        17

Average realized price

   ($ US/lb      45.14        43.24        4
   ($ Cdn/lb      60.98        55.05        11

Average unit cost of sales (including D&A)

   ($ Cdn/lb      46.80        50.91        (8 )% 

Revenue ($ millions)

        594        322        84

Gross profit ($ millions)

        138        24        475

Gross profit (%)

        23        7        229

FIRST QUARTER

Production during the quarter was 4.5 million pounds (our share), 137% higher compared to the first quarter of 2022. See Uranium 2023 Q1 updates starting on page 26 for more information.

Uranium revenues this quarter were up 84% compared to 2022 due to a 64% increase in sales volume as well as an increase of 11% in the Canadian dollar average realized price. The average realized price increased as a result of the impact of the increase in the average US dollar spot price on market-related contracts. While the US dollar average realized price increased by 4%, the Canadian dollar average realized price increased by 11% as a result of a weakening of the Canadian dollar. For more information on the impact of spot price changes on average realized price, see Price sensitivity analysis: uranium segment on page 19.

Total cost of sales (including D&A) increased by 53% ($456 million compared to $298 million in 2022) due to the increase in sales volume of 64% partially offset by a unit cost of sales that was 8% lower than the same period last year. Unit cost of sales was lower than in the first quarter of 2022 as $40 million in operational readiness costs for McArthur River/Key Lake were incurred during 2022.

The net effect was a $114 million increase in gross profit for the quarter.

Equity earnings from investee, JV Inkai, were $57 million in the first quarter compared to $43 million in same period last year.

The table below shows the costs of produced and purchased uranium incurred in the reporting periods (which are non-IFRS measures, see the paragraphs below the table). These costs do not include care and maintenance costs, selling costs such as royalties, transportation and commissions, nor do they reflect the impact of opening inventories on our reported cost of sales.

 

    2023 FIRST QUARTER REPORT    

  23


     THREE MONTHS         
     ENDED MARCH 31         

($CDN/LB)

   2023      2022      CHANGE  

Produced

        

Cash cost

     23.13        21.33        8

Non-cash cost

     10.82        19.35        (44 )% 
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total production cost 1

     33.95        40.68        (17 )% 
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Quantity produced (million lbs)1

     4.5        1.9        137
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Purchased

        

Cash cost1

     66.92        53.48        25
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Quantity purchased (million lbs)1

     0.4        2.3        (83 )% 
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Totals

        

Produced and purchased costs

     36.64        47.69        (23 )% 
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Quantities produced and purchased (million lbs)

     4.9        4.2        17
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

1 

Due to equity accounting, our share of production from JV Inkai is shown as a purchase at the time of delivery. These purchases will fluctuate during the quarters and timing of purchases will not match production. We did not have any purchases in the first three months of 2023. In the first quarter of 2022 we purchased 626,000 pounds at a purchase price per pound of $69.48 ($54.63 (US)).

The average cash cost of production was 8% higher for the quarter compared to the same period in 2022. In 2023, with McArthur River/Key Lake ramping up production and inflationary pressure, the availability of personnel with the necessary skills and experience and the supply chain challenges on the availability of materials and reagents, our annual cash cost of production is expected to be higher than the average life of mine operating costs noted in our most recent annual information form: approximately $16 per pound at McArthur River/Key Lake; approximately $18 per pound at Cigar Lake.

The benefit of Inkai’s lower-cost production is expected to be reflected in the line item on our statement of earnings called, “share of earnings from equity-accounted investee”. If there is a significant disruption to JV Inkai’s operations for any reason, it may not achieve its production plans, there may be a delay in production, and it may experience increased costs to produce uranium.

Although purchased pounds are transacted in US dollars, we account for the purchases in Canadian dollars. The average cash cost of purchased material in US dollar terms was $49.50 (US) per pound this quarter, compared to $42.06 (US) per pound in the first quarter of 2022. In addition, in the first quarter of 2023, the exchange rate on purchases averaged $1.00 (US) for $1.35 (Cdn), compared to $1.00 (US) for $1.27 (Cdn) in the first quarter of 2022. As a result, the average cash cost of purchased material in Canadian dollar terms increased by 25% this quarter compared to the same period last year.

Cash cost per pound, non-cash cost per pound and total cost per pound for produced and purchased uranium presented in the above table are non-IFRS measures. These measures do not have a standardized meaning or a consistent basis of calculation under IFRS. We use these measures in our assessment of the performance of our uranium business. We believe that, in addition to conventional measures prepared in accordance with IFRS, certain investors use this information to evaluate our performance and ability to generate cash flow.

These measures are non-standard supplemental information and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared according to accounting standards. These measures are not necessarily indicative of operating profit or cash flow from operations as determined under IFRS. Other companies may calculate these measures differently, so you may not be able to make a direct comparison to similar measures presented by other companies.

To facilitate a better understanding of these measures, the following table presents a reconciliation of these measures to our unit cost of sales for the first quarter of 2023 and 2022.

 

24  

    CAMECO CORPORATION


Cash and total cost per pound reconciliation

 

     THREE MONTHS  
     ENDED MARCH 31  

($ MILLIONS)

   2023      2022  

Cost of product sold

     390.0        266.9  

Add / (subtract)

     

Royalties

     (24.7      (5.2

Care and maintenance and operational readiness costs

     (11.9      (42.3

Other selling costs

     (2.7      (2.3

Change in inventories

     (219.8      (53.6
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Cash operating costs (a)

     130.9        163.5  

Add / (subtract)

     

Depreciation and amortization

     66.1        31.2  

Care and maintenance and operational readiness costs

     (1.6      (11.8

Change in inventories

     (15.8      17.4  
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total operating costs (b)

     179.6        200.3  
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Uranium produced & purchased (million lbs) (c)

     4.9        4.2  
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Cash costs per pound (a ÷ c)

     26.71        38.93  

Total costs per pound (b ÷ c)

     36.64        47.69  

Fuel services

(includes results for UF6, UO2, UO3 and fuel fabrication)

 

            THREE MONTHS         
            ENDED MARCH 31         

HIGHLIGHTS

          2023      2022      CHANGE  

Production volume (million kgU)

        4.1        4.1        —    

Sales volume (million kgU)

        2.5        2.2        14

Average realized price

   ($ Cdn/kgU      37.66        34.49        9

Average unit cost of sales (including D&A)

   ($ Cdn/kgU      25.14        22.58        11

Revenue ($ millions)

        92        76        21

Gross profit ($ millions)

        31        26        19

Gross profit (%)

        34        34        —    

FIRST QUARTER

Total revenue for the first quarter of 2023 increased to $92 million from $76 million for the same period last year. This was primarily due to a 14% increase in sales volumes and a 9% increase in average realized price compared to 2022. The increase in average realized price was mainly the result of contracts that were entered into in an improved price environment.

The total cost of products and services sold (including D&A) increased 24% ($62 million compared to $50 million in 2022) due to the 14% increase in sales volume as well as an 11% increase in the average unit cost of sales. Average unit cost of sales increased due to higher input costs, the result of inflationary pressure.

The net effect was a $5 million increase in gross profit.

 

    2023 FIRST QUARTER REPORT    

  25


Our operations

Uranium – production overview

We had 4.5 million pounds production (our share) in the first three months of 2023, higher than the 1.9 million pounds production in the same period of 2022 as there was no production from McArthur River and Key Lake until the fourth quarter of 2022.

We continue to evaluate the optimal mix of production, inventory and purchases in order to retain the flexibility to deliver long-term value.

URANIUM PRODUCTION

 

     THREE MONTHS               
     ENDED MARCH 31               

OUR SHARE (MILLION LBS)

   2023      2022      CHANGE     2023 PLAN  

Cigar Lake

     2.1        1.9        11     9.8  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

McArthur River/Key Lake

     2.4        —          n/a       10.5  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total

     4.5        1.9        137     20.3  
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Inflation, the availability of personnel with the necessary skills and experience, and the impact of supply chain challenges on the availability of materials and reagents carry with them the risk that we do not achieve our production plans and/or, experience production delays and increased costs. Additionally, with the extended period of time the McArthur River/Key Lake assets were on care and maintenance, the operational changes that have been made, and commissioning issues that we worked through at the mill in 2022, there is continued uncertainty regarding the timing of a successful ramp up to planned production and the associated costs.

Uranium 2023 Q1 updates

PRODUCTION UPDATE

McArthur River/Key Lake

In the first quarter of 2023, total packaged production from McArthur River and Key Lake was 3.4 million pounds (2.4 million pounds our share). The McArthur River and Key Lake operation was in a state of safe care and maintenance from 2018 through 2021 due to weak market conditions. The operation began transitioning back to production through the first three quarters of 2022, with no packaged pounds until the fourth quarter.

We continue to expect production of 15 million pounds (10.5 million pounds our share) in 2023 and 18 million pounds (12.6 million pounds our share) in 2024.

The collective agreement with the United Steelworkers Local 8914 expired in December 2022, and negotiations to reach a new agreement have begun. As in the past, work continues under the terms of the expired collective agreement while negotiations proceed. There is a risk to the production plan if we are unable to reach an agreement and there is a labour disruption.

The current operating licences from the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) for both Key Lake and McArthur River expire in October 2023. The relicensing process is under way, and we expect a decision from the CNSC later in 2023. We do not expect any disruption to operations or significant risks from this process.

Cigar Lake

Total packaged production from Cigar Lake was 3.8 million pounds (2.1 million pounds our share) compared to 3.7 million pounds (1.9 million pounds our share) in the first quarter of 2022. Our share of production was higher in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022 primarily due to an increase in our ownership interest from 50.025% to 54.547%, which took effect on May 19, 2022.

In 2023 and 2024, we expect to produce 18.0 million pounds (9.8 million pounds our share) at Cigar Lake.

 

26  

    CAMECO CORPORATION


Inkai

Production on a 100% basis was 1.9 million pounds for the quarter compared to 1.7 million pounds in the same period last year.

Based on an adjustment to the production purchase entitlement under the 2016 JV Inkai restructuring agreement, we are entitled to purchase 4.2 million pounds, or 50% of JV Inkai’s planned 2023 production of 8.3 million pounds.

Due to equity accounting, our share of production is shown as a purchase at a discount to the spot price and included in inventory at this value at the time of delivery. Our share of the profits earned by JV Inkai on the sale of its production is included in “share of earnings from equity-accounted investee” on our consolidated statement of earnings. Excess cash, net of working capital requirements is distributed to the partners as dividends.

JV Inkai has made significant progress in managing its wellfield development challenges. However, achievement of its 2023 production forecast requires it to continue to successfully manage several ongoing risks, including the potential impact of procurement and supply chain issues, and inflationary pressures on its production materials and reagents. If there is a significant disruption to JV Inkai’s operations for any reason, it may not achieve its production plans, there may be a delay in production, and it may experience increased costs to produce uranium.

The geopolitical situation continues to cause transportation risks in the region. In 2022, we experienced transportation delays for our share of Inkai’s production. In April, the second shipment containing 1.3 million pounds, representing the majority of our share of Inkai’s remaining 2022 production, arrived at a Canadian port. We could continue to experience delays in our expected Inkai deliveries for 2023. To mitigate this risk, we have inventory, long-term purchase agreements and loan arrangements in place we can draw on. Depending on when we receive shipments of our share of Inkai’s production, our share of earnings from this equity-accounted investee and the timing of the receipt of our share of dividends from the joint venture may be impacted.

TIER-TWO CURTAILED OPERATIONS

US ISR Operations

As a result of our 2016 curtailment decision, commercial production has ceased. As production is suspended, we expect ongoing cash and non-cash care and maintenance costs to range between $12 million (US) and $14 million (US) for 2023.

Rabbit Lake

Rabbit Lake remains in a safe state of care and maintenance following the suspension of production in 2016. We continue to evaluate opportunities to minimize care and maintenance costs and expect these costs to range between $27 million and $32 million for 2023.

The current operating licence from the CNSC for Rabbit Lake expires in October 2023. The relicensing process is under way and we expect a decision from the CNSC later in 2023.

Fuel services 2023 Q1 updates

PORT HOPE CONVERSION SERVICES

CAMECO FUEL MANUFACTURING INC. (CFM)

Production update

Fuel services produced 4.1 million kgU in the first quarter, the same as in the first quarter last year.

We expect to produce between 13 million and 14 million kgU in 2023. In addition, at our Port Hope UF6 conversion facility we are working on increasing annual production to 12,000 tonnes in 2024 to satisfy our book of long-term commitments and demand for conversion services.

 

    2023 FIRST QUARTER REPORT    

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Proposed acquisition of Westinghouse

As announced on October 11, 2022, we entered into a strategic partnership with Brookfield Renewable Partners (Brookfield Renewable) and its institutional partners to acquire Westinghouse, a global provider of mission-critical and specialized technologies, products and services across most phases of the nuclear power sector. Brookfield Renewable, with its institutional partners, will beneficially own a 51% interest in Westinghouse and Cameco will beneficially own 49%. Bringing together Cameco’s expertise in the nuclear industry with Brookfield Renewable’s expertise in clean energy positions nuclear power at the heart of the energy transition and creates a powerful platform for strategic growth across the nuclear sector.

The acquisition is expected to close in the second half of 2023 and is subject to customary closing conditions and certain regulatory approvals. The final financing, our share of which will be approximately $2.2 billion (US), will be determined based on our cash balance, future expected cash flow generation, and market conditions at the time of close. We expect a permanent financing mix of capital sources, including cash, debt and equity, designed to preserve our balance sheet and ratings strength, while maintaining healthy liquidity. See our annual MD&A for more information.

 

 

Caution about forward-looking information relating to the Westinghouse acquisition

This discussion of our expectations for the Westinghouse acquisition, including sources and uses of financing for the acquisition, timeline for the acquisition, including anticipated closing date, is forward-looking information that is based upon the assumptions and subject to the material risks discussed under the headings Caution about forward-looking information beginning on page 2, and in our October 18, 2022 material change report. The material change report is available at www.sedar.com and www.sec.gov. Actual results and events may be significantly different from what we currently expect.

Qualified persons

The technical and scientific information discussed in this document for our material properties (McArthur River/Key Lake, Inkai and Cigar Lake) was approved by the following individuals who are qualified persons for the purposes of NI 43-101:

 

MCARTHUR RIVER/KEY LAKE

 

   INKAI

•   Greg Murdock, general manager, McArthur River, Cameco

 

•   Daley McIntyre, general manager, Key Lake, Cameco

 

CIGAR LAKE

 

•   Lloyd Rowson, general manager, Cigar Lake, Cameco

  

 

•   Sergey Ivanov, deputy general director, technical services, Cameco Kazakhstan LLP

 

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    CAMECO CORPORATION


Additional information

Critical accounting estimates

Due to the nature of our business, we are required to make estimates that affect the amount of assets and liabilities, revenues and expenses, commitments and contingencies we report. We base our estimates on our experience, our best judgment, guidelines established by the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum and on assumptions we believe are reasonable.

Purchase prices related to business combinations and asset acquisitions are allocated to the underlying acquired assets and liabilities based on their estimated fair value at the time of acquisition. The determination of fair value requires us to make assumptions, estimates and judgments regarding future events. The allocation process is inherently subjective and impacts the amounts assigned to individually identifiable assets and liabilities. As a result, the purchase price allocation impacts our reported assets and liabilities, future net earnings due to the impact on future depreciation and amortization expense and impairment tests.

Controls and procedures

As of March 31, 2023, we carried out an evaluation under the supervision and with the participation of our management, including our chief executive officer (CEO) and chief financial officer (CFO), of the effectiveness of our disclosure controls and procedures. There are inherent limitations to the effectiveness of any system of disclosure controls and procedures, including the possibility of human error and the circumvention or overriding of the controls and procedures. Accordingly, even effective disclosure controls and procedures can only provide reasonable assurance of achieving their control objectives.

Based upon that evaluation and as of March 31, 2023, the CEO and CFO concluded that:

 

 

the disclosure controls and procedures were effective to provide reasonable assurance that information required to be disclosed in the reports we file and submit under applicable securities laws is recorded, processed, summarized and reported as and when required

 

 

such information is accumulated and communicated to our management, including our CEO and CFO, as appropriate to allow timely decisions regarding required disclosure

There have been no changes in our internal control over financial reporting during the quarter ended March 31, 2023 that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting.

 

    2023 FIRST QUARTER REPORT    

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