EX-99.(C)(2) 5 dex99c2.htm PRESENTATION OF LEHMAN BROTHERS INC., DATED APRIL 24, 2008 Presentation of Lehman Brothers Inc., dated April 24, 2008

Exhibit (c)(2)

 

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LEHMAN BROTHERS

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Investment Banking Global Healthcare Group April 24, 2008

Presentation to Special Committee of Board of Directors

Project Thunderbird – Follow-up Materials

Confidential Presentation


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Disclaimer

The following pages contain material that was provided to the Special Committee of Board of Directors (the “Special Committee”) of Thunderbird, Inc. (the “Company”) by Lehman Brothers Inc. (“Lehman Brothers”). The accompanying material was compiled or prepared on a confidential basis solely for consideration by the Special Committee and not with a view toward public disclosure under state and federal securities laws. The information contained in this material was obtained from the Company and other publicly available sources, and Lehman Brothers has relied upon such information without independent verification thereof. These materials are being provided in connection with Lehman Brothers’ engagement with the Company and may not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than as specifically contemplated by a written agreement with Lehman Brothers.

Any estimates and projections for the Company contained herein have been prepared by management of the Company or are based upon such estimates and projections. The projections contained herein may or may not be achieved and differences between projected results and those actually achieved may be material. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and nothing contained herein is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise or representation, whether as to the past or the future. Lehman Brothers assumes no obligation to update or otherwise revise these materials.

Because this material was prepared for use in the context of an oral presentation to the Special Committee, the material was not prepared to represent complete disclosure on a stand-alone basis or to comply with the disclosure standards set forth under state and federal securities laws, and neither the Company nor Lehman Brothers nor any of their respective legal or financial advisors or accountants takes any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any of the material when used by persons other than the Special Committee.

LEHMAN BROTHERS 1


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Illustrative Premiums Paid Analysis

Scope of Analysis

All completed M&A transactions from 4/22/1998 to present

All industries included

Transaction values of $100mm - $1,000mm

Key Drivers of “Hostility”

Risk and unwillingness to share competitive information with buyer

Opportunistic buyer – stock price depressed

Interloper – public auction

Regulatory risk

Summary of Analysis

Friendly (15,447 observations)

50%

40%

35.5%

30.6%

30% 27.8%

24.8%

21.6%

20% 18.3%

10%

0%

1 Day Premium 1 Week Premium 1 Month Premium

Mean Median

Source: Thomson SDC as of 4/22/08.

Hostile (57 observations)

50%

44.5% 45.1%

39.8% 39.7%

40% 37.9%

35.0%

30%

20%

10%

0%

1 Day Premium 1 Week Premium 1 Month Premium

Mean Median

LEHMAN BROTHERS 2


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Dolphin Analysis

(in millions except per share data)

Ownership

With Conversion Without Conversion

Total Dolphin Total Dolphin

Basic Number % Number % Number % Number %

Dolphin 13.046 17.7% 13.046 17.7% 13.046 22.4% 13.046 22.4%

Other Basic 38.537 52.2% - 0.0% 38.537 66.2% - 0.0%

Subtotal 51.584 69.9% 13.046 17.7% 51.584 88.6% 13.046 22.4%

Other

Warrants(1) 4.949 6.7% 4.949 6.7% - 0.0% - 0.0%

Options(1) 6.640 9.0% - 0.0% 6.640 11.4% - 0.0%

Convert 1 3.483 4.7% 3.483 4.7% - 0.0% - 0.0%

Convert 2 5.101 6.9% 5.101 6.9% - 0.0% - 0.0%

Convert 3 2.039 2.8% 2.039 2.8% - 0.0% - 0.0%

Subtotal 22.212 30.1% 15.572 21.1% 6.640 11.4% - 0.0%

Total 73.795 100.0% 28.618 38.8% 58.224 100.0% 13.046 22.4%

Dolphin Transaction Spend

Incremental Dolphin Cash Spend@ Various Prices(2) Incremental Dolphin Cash Spend @ Various Prices

Target Ownership Additional Number of Shares to Achieve $8.00 $9.00 $10.00 Additional Number of Shares to Achieve $8.00 $9.00 $10.00

60.0% 15.659 $161.9 $177.6 $193.3 21.888 $175.1 $197.0 $218.9

70.0% 23.039 221.0 244.0 267.1 27.710 221.7 249.4 277.1 Illustrative Scenarios Only

80.0% 30.418 280.0 310.4 340.9 33.532 268.3 301.8 335.3

90.0% 37.798 339.1 376.8 414.6 39.355 314.8 354.2 393.5

100.0% 45.177 361.4 406.6 451.8 45.177 361.4 406.6 451.8

Dolphin – Key Data

€ $(3)

Cash (12/31/07) € 253.1 $401.8

Debt (12/31/07) 36.2 57.5

Net Debt (12/31/07) (€ 216.9) ($344.3)

Net Debt/EBITDA (12/31/07) (0.9x) (0.9x)

Market Cap (Current) € 3,147 $4,997

Source: Company filings. Note: Dolphin required to convert convertible securities and exercise warrants in order to achieve 60% ownership.

1. Warrants and options assume full share conversion (treasury method not applied).

2. Includes $36.7 million to exercise warrants except in 100% scenario as Dolphin would effectively recapture proceeds upon full ownership. Excludes $88.9 million face value of convertible debt as Dolphin would not be required to spend cash.

3. Assumes April 23, 2008 exchange rate of $1.588/1.000 EUR.

LEHMAN BROTHERS 3


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Thunderbird Ownership Momentum

(in thousands)

12/31/2007 09/30/2007 06/30/2007 03/31/2007 12/31/2006 09/30/2006 06/30/2006

Top 35 Shareholders % Ownership Shares Q-o-Q Shares Q-o-Q Shares Q-o-Q Shares Q-o-Q Shares Q-o-Q Shares Q-o-Q Shares Q-o-Q

1 Dolphin 25.3% 13,048 - 13,048 521 12,527 - 12,527 - 12,527 12,527 - - - -

2 Mpm Capital Lp 13.3% 6,859 - 6,859 - 6,859 - 6,859 - 6,859 - 6,859 - 6,859 6,859

3 Prospect Partners Llc 5.9% 3,064 - 3,064 - 3,064 - 3,064 - 3,064 - 3,064 - 3,064 -

4 Rho Ventures 5.8% 3,017 - 3,017 - 3,017 - 3,017 - 3,017 - 3,017 - 3,017 -

5 Medimmune Ventures, Inc. 5.8% 2,996 - 2,996 - 2,996 - 2,996 - 2,996 1,118 1,878 - 1,878 (1,122)

6 State of Wisconsin Investment Board 4.8% 2,487 - 2,487 - 2,487 - 2,487 - 2,487 (165) 2,652 - 2,652 -

7 Invesco AIM Management Group, Inc. 4.4% 2,292 (3) 2,295 226 2,069 739 1,330 142 1,188 510 678 331 348 (46)

8 T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. 3.8% 1,963 (38) 2,001 27 1,974 2 1,972 774 1,199 (9) 1,208 89 1,119 404

9 Barclays Global Investors NA (California) 3.2% 1,669 155 1,514 (3) 1,516 757 760 (18) 778 20 758 (68) 826 24

10 AIM Trimark Investments 2.9% 1,506 (179) 1,685 (98) 1,784 210 1,574 57 1,517 655 862 449 413 413

11 Mazama Capital Management, Inc. 1.8% 921 (453) 1,375 (24) 1,399 (33) 1,431 (73) 1,504 (110) 1,615 300 1,315 (91)

12 AXA Framlington Investment Management 1.7% 882 - 882 (28) 910 64 846 - 846 - 846 - 846 211

13 Carnegie Fond AB 1.6% 850 - 850 - 850 50 800 - 800 (353) 1,153 - 1,153 377

14 Granahan Investment Management, Inc. 1.6% 817 (18) 835 85 750 (210) 960 225 735 (96) 831 7 825 115

15 Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. 1.4% 741 197 545 228 317 317 - - - - - - - -

16 Boat Harbour Ltd 1.1% 556 - 556 - 556 - 556 - 556 - 556 - 556 -

17 DWS Investment GmbH 0.9% 466 - 466 (7) 472 (40) 512 (261) 773 173 600 (50) 650 (87)

18 Clariden Leu Ltd. 0.9% 458 - 458 - 458 - 458 131 327 20 307 60 248 23

19 State Street Global Advisors 0.8% 389 133 256 9 248 225 23 - 23 - 23 (97) 120 (13)

20 Scarlett John A 0.6% 319 - 319 - 319 - 319 - 319 - 319 - 319(150)

21 AXA Investment Managers (Paris) SA 0.4% 226 (591) 818 (28) 846 846 - (64) 64 (846) 910 - 910 -

22 TIAA-CREF Asset Management LLC 0.4% 222 1 221 (3) 224 224 - (1) 1 - 1 (74) 75 1

23 Vanguard Group, Inc. 0.4% 206 2 204 2 202 25 178 1 177 177 - - - -

24 BlackRock Advisors, Inc. 0.4% 200 158 42 6 36 28 8 5 3 3 - - - -

25 The California Public Employees Retirement 0.4% 196 89 106 - 106 - 106 - 106 - 106 - 106 -

26 Thrivent Investment Management, Inc. 0.3% 171 (71) 242 18 224 224 - - - - - - - -

27 Northern Trust Co. of Connecticut 0.3% 160 9 151 26 124 1 124 41 82 19 63 (14) 77 15

28 Soundpost Partners LP 0.3% 158 158 - - - - - - - - - - - -

29 Northern Trust Investments 0.3% 156 17 140 (0) 140 140 - - - - (43) 43 (3)

30 TD Asset Management, Inc. 0.2% 127 40 87 - 87 - 87 6 81 - 81 20 61 52

31 Goldman Sachs & Co. 0.2% 91 22 69 50 18 4 15 0 14 (4) 18 (40) 58 46

32 Millennium Partners 0.2% 82 82 - (12) 12 12 - (88) 88 88 - (46) 46 46

33 Blackrock Investment Management (UK) Ltd. 0.2% 80 80 - - - - - - - - - - - -

34 INVESCO Asset Management (Japan) Ltd. 0.1% 71 (12) 83 (53) 135 - 135 3 132 50 82 42 39 39

35 Mellon Capital Management 0.1% 61 2 59 4 55 12 43 - 43 (17) 60 1 59 12

Subtotal – Top 35 Holders 92.1% 47,507 (220) 47,728 946 46,782 3,595 43,187 881 42,307 13,760 28,547 867 27,681 7,123

Held positions

Increased positions

Reduced positions

Note: Positions highlighted only for greater than 50,000 share changes

Source: FactSet.

LEHMAN BROTHERS 4


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Thunderbird Stock Price Performance

Volume Distribution

1 Month (VWAP: $5.84)

Cumulative Volume

Volume 0% 16% 93% 100% 100%

74.5%

75%

50%

25% 20.8%

4.8%

0.0% 0.0%

0%

$4.00- $4.75- $5.50- $6.25- $7.00-

$4.75 $5.50 $6.25 $7.00 $7.77

3 Months (VWAP: $6.28)

Cumulative Volume

Volume 0% 11% 64% 98% 100%

75%

50% 43.1% 42.7%

25%

9.0%

5.2%

0.0%

0%

$4.00- $4.75- $5.50- $6.25- $7.00-

$4.75 $5.50 $6.25 $7.00 $7.77

12 Months (VWAP: $6.32)

Cumulative Volume

Volume 0% 18% 48% 88% 100%

75%

50% 40.4%

29.3%

25% 17.7%

12.3%

0.3%

0%

$4.00- $4.75- $5.50- $6.25- $7.00-

$4.75 $5.50 $6.25 $7.00 $7.77

21 Months (VWAP: $5.96)

Cumulative Volume

Volume 1% 36% 67% 92% 100%

75%

50%

35.0% 30.9%

25.4%

25%

7.6%

1.2%

0%

$4.00- $4.75- $5.50- $6.25- $7.00-

$4.75 $5.50 $6.25 $7.00 $7.77

2-Year Stock Price Performance

Price Volume

(000s)

Dolphin Indication of Interest : $8.00/share

$8 3,000

$6 2,000

$5.23(1)

2 Year High (18%) YoY

Close: $7.77

$4 1,000

2 Year Low

Close: $3.07

$2 0

4/23/2006 7/13/2006 10/2/2006 12/22/2006 3/13/2007 6/1/2007 8/23/2007 11/12/2007 2/1/2008 4/23/2008

Volume Traded T-Bird

Source: FactSet.VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price; based upon closing stock prices.

1. Closing price as of 4/23/2008.

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Illustrative Impact of Blockbuster Phase II Data

($ in millions)

Product Peak Sales Estimate Initial Positive Phase II Stock Price Market Cap

Ann. Date 1-Day 1-Month 1-Day 1-Month Stock Price Performance

Price Volume

$12 12,000

$10

8,000

CARDIOME

PHARMA CORP. $1,200 3/17/08 30.6% 15.4% $123 $62 $8

4,000

$6

Oral Vernakalant $4 0

9/17/2007 11/28/2007 2/8/2008 4/22/2008

Volume Cardiome Ann. Date

Price Volume

$30 50,000

$25 40,000

$20 30,000

RIGEL $1,000 12/13/07 224.4% 242.5% $557 $602

$15 20,000

$10 10,000

R788 $5 0

6/13/2007 9/25/2007 1/8/2008 4/22/2008

Volume Rigel Ann. Date

Price Volume

$65 8,000

$60 6,000

$55

ACTELION $1,300 9/2/07 2.0% (3.0%) $140 ($200) 4,000

$50

$45 2,000

Almorexant $40 0

3/2/2007 7/2/2007 11/1/2007 3/3/2008

Volume Actelion Ann. Date

Source: Company information, Wall Street research.

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Illustrative Impact of Blockbuster Phase II Data (cont’d)

($ in millions)

Stock Price Market Cap

Product Peak Sales Estimate Initial Positive Phase II Ann. Date 1-Day 1-Month 1-Day 1-Month Stock Price Performance

Price Volume

$20 25,000

ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS $16 20,000

15,000

$1,100 3/19/07 103.4% 131.7% $207 $263 $12 10,000

$8 5,000

Pimavanserin 0

9/19/2006 1/18/2007 5/18/2007 9/19/2007

Volume Acadia Ann. Date

Price Volume

KERYX BIOPHARMACEUTICALS $20 2,500

$18 2,000

$16 1,500

$1,000 2/15/06 5.7% 14.9% $35 $90 $14 1,000

$12 500

$10 0

Sulonex(1)

8/15/2005 12/14/2005 4/14/2006 8/15/2006

Volume Keryx Ann. Date

Price Volume

$48 40,000

$40 30,000

$32 20,000

AMYLIN $1,800 8/22/05 27.7% 39.1% $634 $895

$24

10,000

$16

Byetta LAR 0

2/22/2005 6/23/2005 10/21/2005 2/22/2006

Volume Amylin Ann. Date

Source: Company information, Wall Street research.

1. Keryx terminated Sulonex during Phase IV trial due to lack of efficacy; Wall Street peak estimates are prior to termination.

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Illustrative Impact of Blockbuster Phase II Data (cont’d)

($ in millions)

($ in millions)

Product Initial Positive

Peak Sales Phase II Stock Price Market Cap

Estimate Ann. Date 1-Day 1-Month 1-Day 1-Month Stock Price Performance

Price Volume

$30 30,000

$25

Celgene 20,000

$3,300 5/15/05 4.5% 7.8% $275 $484 $20

Revlimid

(lenalidomide) 10,000

$15

$10 0

11/15/2004 3/16/2005 7/15/2005 11/15/2005

Volume Celgene Ann. Date

Price Volume

$40 12,000

$35

MedImmune, Inc. 8,000

$1,000 5/14/05 0.4% 0.5% $22 $35 $30

4,000

Numax / Motavizumab $25

$20 0

11/12/2004 3/14/2005 7/14/2005 11/14/2005

Volume Medimmune Ann. Date

BIOGEN(1) Price Volume

$80 15,000

$70

10,000

TYSABRI (natalizumab) $1,400 1/22/01 5.0% (11.4%) $444 ($1,017) $60

5,000

$50

$40 0

7/21/2000 11/20/2000 3/22/2001 7/23/2001

Volume Biogen Ann. Date

Source: Company information, Wall Street research.

1. Tysabri Phase II announcement before Biogen Idec merger.

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